8

Supplementary Materials

Climate Models
and Their Evaluation
Coordinating Lead Authors:
David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK)

Lead Authors:
Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation),
Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan),
Karl E. Taylor (USA)

Contributing Authors:
K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfils (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA),
C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany),
P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK),
A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK),
R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia),
K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium),
W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA),
M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK),
T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany),
S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland),
A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. Slater (USA, Australia), J. Slingo (UK), D. Smith (UK),
B. Soden (USA), W. Stern (USA), D.A. Stone (UK), K.Sudo (Japan), T. Takemura (Japan), G. Tselioudis (USA, Greece), M. Webb (UK),
M. Wild (Switzerland)

Review Editors:
Elisa Manzini (Italy), Taroh Matsuno (Japan), Bryant McAvaney (Australia)

This chapter should be cited as:
Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouffer, A. Sumi
and K.E. Taylor, 2007: Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of

Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning,
Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Appendix 8.A:
Supplementary Figures and Tables
Supplementary Figures for Section 8.3
These figures are cited as supplementary material in Chapter 8, Section 3. They contain supportive analyses that, due to space
limitations, could not be shown in the main report. There are a number of places in the text where the reader is encouraged to
view these supplementary figures. The results presented here support the points made in the report. The figures present results
from individual models, which are the basis for the construction of the multi-model averages and model spreads shown in section
8.3. References cited here are given at the end of the main chapter text.
Note that results from some models have only recently become available and may not be included here.
Figure S8.1: Surface temperature:
Each page of figure S8.1a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surface air temperature
climatology (°C).
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (°C).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (°C).

SM.8-

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

SM.8-

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

CRU/HadISST

Mean Model

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

-15
-20

SM.8-

PCM

-5
-10

5
0

15
10

25
20

30

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Each page of figure S8.1b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surface air temperature climatology (°C).
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares
of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.

The HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003) climatology of SST for 1980-1999 and the CRU (Jones et al., 1999) climatology of surface
air tempeature over land for 1961–1990 are shown here. The model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century
simulations. In the presence of sea ice, the SST is assumed to be at the approximate freezing point of sea water (–1.8 °C).

Merged Surface Temperature Difference from CRU/HadISST
Mean Model

CRU/HadISST

-15
-20

-5
-10

5
0

15
10

Typical Error

25
20

0
30

2
1

BCC-CM1

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

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-5

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-3

0
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Mean Model

CRU/HadISST

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-20

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

-5
-10

5
0

15
10

Typical Error

25
20

0
30

2
1

3

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

-4
-5

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-3

0
-1

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Merged Surface Temperature Difference from CRU/HadISST
Mean Model

CRU/HadISST

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Climate Models and Their Evaluation

-5
-10

5
0

15
10

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25
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0
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1

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

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5

8
7

PCM

-2
-3

4

0
-1

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3

5

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Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.2: Surface temperature standard deviation:
Each page of figure S8.2a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST) and, over land, surface air temperature (°C),
computed over the climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (°C).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (°C).

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time

CRU/HadISST

Mean Model

BCC-CM1

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

0

3
1.5

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4.5

9
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12
10.5

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13.5

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time

CRU/HadISST

Mean Model

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

0

3
1.5

6
4.5

9
7.5

12
10.5

15
13.5

18
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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time

CRU/HadISST

Mean Model

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

0

3
1.5

SM.8-10

6
4.5

PCM

9
7.5

12
10.5

15
13.5

18
16.5

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Each page of figure S8.2b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST) and, over land, surface air temperature (°C), computed over the
climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares
of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.

The HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003) climatology of SST for 1980-1999 and the CRU (Jones et al., 1999) climatology of surface
air temperature over land for 1961–1990 are shown here. The model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century
simulations. In the presence of sea ice, the SST is assumed to be at the approximate freezing point of sea water (–1.8 °C).

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time, Difference from CRU/HadISST
Mean Model

CRU/HadISST

0

3
1.5

6
4.5

9
7.5

12
10.5

15
13.5

Typical Error

18

0

16.5

1
0.5

BCC-CM1

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

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0
-0.5

1
0.5

2
1.5

3
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4
3.5

2
1.5

2.5

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time, Difference from CRU/HadISST
Mean Model

CRU/HadISST

0

3
1.5

6
4.5

9
7.5

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15
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Typical Error

18

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16.5

1
0.5

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

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-1.5

0
-0.5

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1.5

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time, Difference from CRU/HadISST
Mean Model

CRU/HadISST

0

3
1.5

6
4.5

9
7.5

12
10.5

15
13.5

Typical Error

18

0

16.5

0.5

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

-2
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1

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-1.5

1.5

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2.5

4
3.5

PCM

0
-0.5

2

1
0.5

2
1.5

2.5

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.3: Diurnal range of surface air temperature over land:
Each page of figure S8.3a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed diurnal range of surface air temperature over land, annual averaged (°C).
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (°C).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (°C).

Diurnal Temperature Range

CRU

Mean Model

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

BCC-CM1

CGCM3.1(T47)

CNRM-CM3

CGCM3.1(T63)

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

0

4
2

SM.8-14

8
6

12
10

ECHO-G

16
14

20
18

22

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Diurnal Temperature Range (K)

CRU

Mean Model

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

0

4
2

8
6

12
10

16
14

20
18

22

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Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Diurnal Temperature Range (K)

CRU

Mean Model

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

0

SM.8-16

UKMO-HadGEM1

4
2

PCM

8
6

12
10

16
14

20
18

22

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Each page of figure S8.3b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed diurnal range of surface air temperature over land, annual averaged (°C).
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).

Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)
Mean Model

CRU

0

4
2

8
6

12
10

16
14

Typical Error

20
18

0
22

2
1

BCCR-BCM2.0

4
3

6
5

8
7

10
9

11

CCSM3

BCC-CM1

CGCM3.1(T47)

CNRM-CM3

CGCM3.1(T63)

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

-8
-10

-4
-6

0
-2

ECHO-G

4
2

8
6

10

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)
Mean Model

CRU

0

4
2

8
6

12
10

16
14

Typical Error

20
18

0
22

2
1

3

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

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SM.8-18

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-6

0
-2

4
2

4

6
5

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6

10

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7

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)
Mean Model

CRU

0

4
2

8
6

12
10

16
14

Typical Error

20
18

0
22

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

4
3

6
5

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7

10
9

11

PCM

UKMO-HadGEM1

-8
-10

2
1

-4
-6

0
-2

4
2

8
6

10

SM.8-19

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.3c shows:
• Diurnal range of surface air temperature, averaged zonally over land areas and averaged annually.

(oC)

The observations are from the CRU surface air temperature dataset for the period 1961-1990 (Mitchell and Jones, 2005), and the
model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations are unreliable over Greenland.

SM.8-20

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.4: Zonal mean air temperature cross-sections:
Each page of figure S8.4a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (oC), averaged zonally.
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (oC).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (oC).

ERA40

Mean Model

10

20

100

12

200
300

Air Temperature

10

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

500
4

700

4
700

1000

1000

90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

90N

60

30

BCCR-BCM2.0

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

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300

CCSM3
10

20

100

12

200
300

8

BCC-CM1

500

8

500
4

700

1000

1000

90N

CGCM3.1(T47)

60

30

CGCM3.1(T63)

10

20

100

12

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300

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700

EQ

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90S

10

90N

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EQ

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90S

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300

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8

CNRM-CM3

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60

CSIRO-Mk3.0

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EQ

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60

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

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ECHO-G

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90N

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EQ

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270

90S

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

ERA40

Mean Model

10

20

100

12

200
300

Air Temperature

10

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12

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300

8

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60

FGOALS-g1.0

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GFDL-CM2.0

EQ

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300

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GISS-AOM

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1000

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GISS-EH

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IPSL-CM4

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EQ

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SM.8-22

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60

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GISS-ER

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

ERA40

Mean Model

10

20

100

12

200
300

Air Temperature

10

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100

12

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300

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60

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60

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

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UKMO-HadGEM1

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220

EQ

30

60

250
240

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270
260

290
280

300

SM.8-23

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.4b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (oC), averaged zonally.
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (oC), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (oC), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (oC), simulated minus observed.
The observational estimate is from years 1980-1999 of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005), and the model
climatologies are calculated for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

10

Air Temperature Differences

Mean Model

ERA40
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12

200

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20

100

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300

8

8
4

Typical Error
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700

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60

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EQ
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27030
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EQ

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SM.8-24

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60

90S

-4.5

90S

90N

-3

60

30

-1.5

EQ

0

30

60

1.5

3

90S

6
4.5

7.5

30

60

90S

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

10

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Air Temperature Differences

Mean Model

ERA40
20

100

12

200

10

20

100

12

200

300

8

8
4

Typical Error
20
12

200
300

8

300

500

700

10
100

500
4

500

700
4

1000
90N

700
60

210

200

230

EQ
250

30

220

240

27030
260

290

280

60

1000
90N

90S

300

90N

60

30

GFDL-CM2.0

10

20

12

200
300

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

GISS-EH

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

IPSL-CM4

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200

EQ

30

-7.5

-6

60

90S

-4.5

GISS-ER

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

20

100

12

200

8

4

90N

60

MIROC3.2(hires)

30

EQ

30

60

10

90N

90S

20

100

12

200

8

4

4
700

1000
30

90N

10

500

700

60

4

300

4

90N

8

8

500

1000

12

1000

90N

300

700

20

200

700

8

500

10
100

4

1000
60

INM-CM3.0

11

GFDL-CM2.1

500

700

90N

9

90S

300

4

1000

7

60

8

500

700

5

10

30

1000

90N

8

500

8

700

1000
60

GISS-AOM

6

EQ

4
700

90N

3

4

500

4

1000

30

8

500

700

2

300

8

500

60

1

1000

FGOALS-g1.0
100

0

1000

-3

60

30

-1.5

EQ

0

30

60

1.5

3

90S

90N

4.5

60

6

30

EQ

30

60

90S

7.5

SM.8-25

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

10

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Air Temperature Differences

Mean Model

ERA40
20

100

12

200

10

20

100

12

200

300

8

8
4

Typical Error
20
12

200
300

8

300

500

700

10
100

500
4

500

700
4

1000
90N

700
60

210

200

230

EQ
250

30

220

240

27030
260

290

280

60

1000
90N

90S

300

90N

60

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

60

UKMO-HadGEM1

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

12

200

8

4

90N

60

30

EQ

12

200

8

4
700

1000
30

EQ

30

60

90S

-6
-7.5

SM.8-26

90N

60

30

-3
-4.5

90S

11

10

20

100

4

60

9

100

500

1000

7

60

PCM

300

700

90N

5

10

30

1000

90N

8

500

8

700

1000
60

UKMO-HadCM3

6

EQ

4
700

90N

3

4

500

4

1000

30

8

500

700

2

300

8

500

60

1

1000

MIROC3.2(medres)

0

EQ

30

60

0
-1.5

90S

3
1.5

6
4.5

7.5

30

60

90S

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figures S8.5: Zonal mean shortwave radiation reflected to space:

-2

Reflected SW Radiation at TOA (W m )

The first page of figure S8.5 shows:
• Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged shortwave radiation reflected to space.

150
125
100
75
50
25
90N

60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G

30

EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)

30

60

90S

MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (ERBE)

SM.8-27

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

The second page of figure S8.5 shows:
• Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged shortwave radiation reflected to space.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 1985–1989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

-2

SW Radiation Error (W m )

30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
90N

60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM

SM.8-28

30

EQ
Latitude
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0

30

60

90S

IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.6: Shortwave radiation reflected to space:
Each page of figure S8.6a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed shortwave radiation reflected to space (W m-2).
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (W m-2).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (W m-2).

Outgoing SW Radiation

ERBE

Mean Model

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

BCC-CM1

0

40
20

80
60

120
100

160
140

200
180

SM.8-29

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Outgoing SW Radiation

ERBE

Mean Model

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

0

40
20

SM.8-30

80
60

120
100

160
140

200
180

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Outgoing SW Radiation

ERBE

Mean Model

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

0

40
20

PCM

80
60

120
100

160
140

200
180

SM.8-31

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.6b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed shortwave radiation reflected to space (W m-2).
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (W m-2), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the
sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 1985–1989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBE
Mean Model

ERBE

0

40
20

80
60

120
100

160
140

Typical Error

200

0

180

10
5

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

20
15

30
25

BCC-CM1

-40
-50

SM.8-32

-20
-30

0
-10

20
10

40
30

50

40
35

50
45

55

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBE
Mean Model

ERBE

0

40
20

80
60

120
100

160
140

Typical Error

200

0

180

10
5

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

-40
-50

-20
-30

0
-10

20
10

20
15

30
25

40
35

50
45

55

40
30

50

SM.8-33

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBE
Mean Model

ERBE

0

40
20

80
60

120
100

160
140

200

0

180
MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

-40

SM.8-34

10
5

MIROC3.2(medres)

-50

Typical Error

-20
-30

30
25

PCM

0
-10

20
15

20
10

40
30

50

40
35

50
45

55

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8. 7: Zonal mean outgoing longwave radiation:
The first page of figure S8.7 shows:
• Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.

-2

LW Radiation at TOA (W m )

300
250
200
150
100
90N

60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G

30

EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)

30

60

90S

MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (ERBE)

SM.8-35

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

The second page of figure S8.7 shows:
• Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 1985–1989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

-2

LW Radiation Error (W m )

20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
90N

60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM

SM.8-36

30

EQ
Latitude
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0

30

60

90S

IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.8: Outgoing longwave radiation:
Each page of figure S8.8a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed outgoing longwave radiation (W m-2).
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (W m-2).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (W m-2).

Outgoing LW Radiation

ERBE

Mean Model

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

BCC-CM1

100

140
120

180
160

220
200

260
240

300
280

SM.8-37

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Outgoing LW Radiation

ERBE

Mean Model

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

100

140
120

SM.8-38

180
160

220
200

260
240

300
280

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Outgoing LW Radiation

ERBE

Mean Model

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

100

140
120

PCM

180
160

220
200

260
240

300
280

SM.8-39

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.8b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed outgoing longwave radiation (W m-2).
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (W m-2), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the
sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 1985–1989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations in the multi-model dataset at PCMDI.

Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBE
Mean Model

ERBE

100

140
120

180
160

220
200

260
240

Typical Error

300

0

280

10
5

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

20
15

30
25

BCC-CM1

-40
-50

SM.8-40

-20
-30

0
-10

20
10

40
30

50

40
35

50
45

55

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBE
Mean Model

ERBE

100

140
120

180
160

220
200

260
240

Typical Error

300

0

280

10
5

15

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

-40
-50

-20
-30

0
-10

20
10

20

30
25

40
35

50
45

55

40
30

50

SM.8-41

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBE
Mean Model

ERBE

100

140
120

180
160

220
200

260
240

300

0

280
MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

-40

SM.8-42

10
5

MIROC3.2(medres)

-50

Typical Error

-20
-30

15

30
25

PCM

0
-10

20

20
10

40
30

50

40
35

50
45

55

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.9: Precipitation:
Each page of figure S8.9a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean precipitation (cm).
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (cm).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (cm).

Annual Precipitation

CMAP

Mean Model

BCC-CM1

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

0

60
30

120
90

180
150

240
210

300
270

330

SM.8-43

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Annual Precipitation

CMAP

Mean Model

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

0

60
30

SM.8-44

120
90

180
150

240
210

300
270

330

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Annual Precipitation

CMAP

Mean Model

MIROC3.2(medres)

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

0

60
30

120
90

PCM

180
150

240
210

300
270

330

SM.8-45

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.9b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean precipitation climatology (cm).
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (cm), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (cm), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (cm), simulated minus observed.
The CMAP (Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 1980–1999 is shown, and the model results are for the same
period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations were not available in the grey regions.

Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAP
Mean Model

CMAP

0

60
30

120
90

180
150

240
210

Typical Error

300
270

0
330

30
15

BCC-CM1

BCCR-BCM2.0

CCSM3

CGCM3.1(T47)

CGCM3.1(T63)

CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-Mk3.0

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

ECHO-G

-120
-150

SM.8-46

-60
-90

0
-30

60
30

60
45

90
75

120
90

150

120
105

150
135

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAP
Mean Model

CMAP

0

60
30

120
90

180
150

240
210

Typical Error

300
270

0
330

30
15

FGOALS-g1.0

GFDL-CM2.0

GFDL-CM2.1

GISS-AOM

GISS-EH

GISS-ER

INM-CM3.0

IPSL-CM4

MIROC3.2(hires)

-120
-150

-60
-90

0
-30

60
30

60
45

90
75

120
105

150
135

120
90

150

SM.8-47

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAP
Mean Model

CMAP

0

60
30

120
90

180
150

240
210

300
270

0
330
MRI-CGCM2.3.2

UKMO-HadCM3

UKMO-HadGEM1

-120

SM.8-48

30
15

MIROC3.2(medres)

-150

Typical Error

-60
-90

45

90
75

PCM

0
-30

60

60
30

120
90

150

120
105

150
135

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.10: Zonal mean precipitation:
The first page of figure S8.10 shows:
• Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged precipitation amount.

Annual Precipitation (cm)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
90N

60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G

30

EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)

30

60

90S

MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (CMAP)

SM.8-49

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

The second page figure S8.10 shows:
• Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged precipitation amount.
The CMAP (Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 1980–1999 is shown, and the model results are for the same
period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations were not available in the grey regions.

Annual Precipitation Error (cm)

100
50
0
-50
-100
90N

60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM

SM.8-50

30

EQ
Latitude
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0

30

60

90S

IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.11: Zonal mean specific humidity cross-sections:
Each page of figure S8.11a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual mean specific humidity climatology (g/kg), averaged zonally.
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (g/kg).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (g/kg).

Specific Humidity

ERA40

Mean Model

10

20

100

12

200
300

10

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

500
4

700

4
700

1000

1000

90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

90N

60

30

BCCR-BCM2.0

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

CCSM3
10

20

100

12

200
300

8

BCC-CM1

500

8

500
4

700

1000

1000

90N

CGCM3.1(T47)

60

30

CGCM3.1(T63)

10

20

100

12

200
300

4
700

EQ

30

60

90S

10

90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

CNRM-CM3

500
4

700

4
700

1000

1000

90N

60

CSIRO-Mk3.0

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

90N

60

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

4
700

4
700

1000
90N

ECHO-G

500

1000
60

30

0

EQ

30

0.1

0.2

60

90S

0.4

90N

0.8

60

30

1.6

EQ

3.2

30

60

6.4

12.8

90S

51.2
25.6

102.4

SM.8-51

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Specific Humidity

ERA40

Mean Model

10

20

100

12

200
300

10

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

500
4

700

4
700

1000

1000

90N

60

FGOALS-g1.0

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

90N

60

30

GFDL-CM2.0

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

4
700

60

GISS-AOM

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

1000

90N

GISS-EH

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

IPSL-CM4

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

90N

0

EQ

30

0.1

SM.8-52

0.2

60

90S

0.4

12

200

8

4

90N

60

MIROC3.2(hires)

30

EQ

30

60

10

90N

90S

20

100

12

200

8

4

4
700

1000
30

20

100

500

700

60

90S

300

4

1000

60

8

500

700

30

1000

90N

8

500

EQ

700

1000
60

INM-CM3.0

30

4
700

90N

60

500

4

1000

GISS-ER

8

500

700

90N

10

300

8

500

4
700

1000

90N

8

500

4

1000

12

8

500

700

20

200
300

8

500

GFDL-CM2.1
10
100

1000

0.8

60

30

1.6

EQ

3.2

30

60

6.4

12.8

90S

90N

25.6

60

51.2

30

EQ

102.4

30

60

90S

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Specific Humidity

ERA40

Mean Model

10

20

100

12

200
300

10

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

500
4

700

4
700

1000

1000

90N

60

MIROC3.2(medres)

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

90N

60

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

4
700

60

UKMO-HadCM3

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

1000

90N

60

UKMO-HadGEM1

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

500
4

700

4
700

1000
90N

4
700

1000

90N

8

500

4

1000

12

200

8

500

700

20

100

300

8

500

PCM
10

1000
60

30

EQ

30

0

60

90S

0.2
0.1

90N

60

30

0.8
0.4

EQ

30

60

3.2
1.6

90S

12.8
6.4

51.2
25.6

102.4

SM.8-53

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.11b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual mean specific humidity climatology (g/kg), averaged zonally.
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean fractional error, expressed as a percent (i.e., simulated minus observed, divided by observed
and multiplied by 100).
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model fractional error, expressed as a percent, based on all available IPCC model simulations.
• All other panels: Individual model errors, expressed as a percent (i.e., simulated minus observed, divided by observed and
multiplied by 100).
The observational estimate is from the 40-year European Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005) based on observations over the
period 1980-1999. The model results are from the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

10

Mean Model

ERA40
20

100

12

200

Specific Humidity

10

20

100

12

200

300

8

8
4

Typical Error
20
12

200
300

8

300

500

700

10
100

500
4

500

700
4

1000
90N

700

0

60

0.2

0.1

0.8

EQ
3.2

30

0.4

1.6

12.830
6.4

25.6

51.2

60

1000
90N

90S

102.4

0

60

20

10

1000
90N

60

30

BCCR-BCM2.0

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

30

40

EQ

50

60

80

60
100

30

70

90

CCSM3
10

20

100

12

200
300

8

BCC-CM1

500

8

500
4

700

1000

90N

60

30

CGCM3.1(T63)

10

20

100

12

200
300

4
700

1000

CGCM3.1(T47)

EQ

30

60

90S

10

90N

60

30

EQ

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

CNRM-CM3

500
4

700

4
700

1000

1000

90N

60

CSIRO-Mk3.0

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

90N

60

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

8

500

8

4

4
700

1000
90N

ECHO-G

500

700

1000
60

30

EQ

30

-50

SM.8-54

-40

60

90S

-30

90S

90N

-20

60

30

-10

EQ

0

30

60

10

20

90S

40
30

50

30

60

90S

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

10

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Mean Model

ERA40
20

100

12

200

Specific Humidity

10

20

100

12

200

300

8

8
4

Typical Error
20
12

200
300

8

300

500

700

10
100

500
4

500

700
4

1000
90N

700

0

60

0.2

0.1

0.8

EQ
3.2

30

0.4

1.6

12.830
6.4

25.6

51.2

60

1000
90N

90S

102.4

90N

60

30

GFDL-CM2.0

10

20

12

200
300

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

GISS-EH

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

IPSL-CM4

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200

EQ

30

-50

-40

60

90S

-30

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

20

100

12

200

8

4

90N

60

MIROC3.2(hires)

30

EQ

30

60

10

90N

90S

20

100

12

200

8

4

4
700

1000
30

GISS-ER

500

700

60

90N

10

300

4

90N

4

8

500

1000

8

1000

90N

300

700

12

700

8

500

20

200

4

1000
60

INM-CM3.0

10
100

500

700

90N

90

300

4

1000

70

90S

GFDL-CM2.1

8

500

700

60
100

1000

90N

8

500

80

30

700

1000
60

GISS-AOM

50

60

4
700

90N

EQ

500

4

1000

30

40

8

500

700

30

300

8

500

20

60

10

1000

FGOALS-g1.0
100

0

1000

-20

60

30

-10

EQ

0

30

60

10

20

90S

90N

30

60

40

30

EQ

30

60

90S

50

SM.8-55

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

10

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Mean Model

ERA40
20

100

12

200

Specific Humidity

10

20

100

12

200

300

8

8
4

Typical Error
20
12

200
300

8

300

500

700

10
100

500
4

500

700
4

1000
90N

700

0

60

0.2

0.1

0.8

EQ
3.2

30

0.4

1.6

12.830
6.4

25.6

51.2

60

1000
90N

90S

102.4

90N

60

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

20

100

12

200
300

30

EQ

30

60

10

90S

20

100

12

200
300

60

UKMO-HadGEM1

30

EQ

30

60

90S

10

12

8

4

90N

60

30

EQ

12

200

8

4

1000
EQ

30

60

90S

-40
-50

SM.8-56

20

200

700

30

90N

60

30

-20
-30

90S

90

10

20

100

4

60

70

100

500

1000

60
100

1000

90N

8

700

80

30

PCM

300

500

90N

50

60

700

1000
60

UKMO-HadCM3

EQ

4
700

90N

30

40

500

4

1000

30

8

500

700

20

300

8

500

60

10

1000

MIROC3.2(medres)

0

EQ

30

60

0
-10

90S

20
10

40
30

50

30

60

90S

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.12: Ocean potential temperature cross-sections:
Each page of figure S8.12a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual mean potential temperature climatology (°C), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (°C).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (°C).
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al. (2005) for the period 1957-1990,
and model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

Global Ocean Potential Temperature : Zonal Mean

Levitus

Mean Model

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

60

BCCR-BCM2.0

BCC-CM1

30

EQ

30

60

90S

CCSM3

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

CGCM3.1(T47)

60

CGCM3.1(T63)

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

0

0

200

200

200

400

400

400

600

600

600

800

800

800

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000

2000

3000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

CSIRO-Mk3.0

30

EQ

30

60

60

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

ECHO-G

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

EQ

30

60

90S

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

30

EQ

30

60

90S

800

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000
5000
90N

30

4000

5000
90N

90S

60

CNRM-CM3

0

4000

60

30

EQ

-2.5

30

0

60

90S

2.5

5

10
7.5

15
12.5

20
17.5

5000
90N

60

22.5

25

27.5

SM.8-57

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Global Ocean Potential Temperature: Zonal Mean

Levitus

Mean Model

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

FGOALS-g1.0

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

60

GFDL-CM2.0

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

30

EQ

30

60

90S

GFDL-CM2.1

4000

5000
90N

60

GISS-AOM

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

GISS-EH

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

GISS-ER

0

0

0

200

200

200

400

400

400

600

600

600

800

800

800

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000

2000

3000

3000

3000

4000

4000

4000

5000
90N

5000
90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

IPSL-CM4

INM-CM3.0

0
-2.5

SM.8-58

5
2.5

60

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

7.5

30

10

EQ

12.5

30

15

60

90S

17.5

60

MIROC3.2(hires)

0

20

5000
90N

60

22.5

25

30

EQ

30

60

90S

30

EQ

30

60

90S

27.5

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Global Ocean Potential Temperature: Zonal Mean

Levitus

Mean Model

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

MIROC3.2(medres)

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

60

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

30

EQ

30

60

90S

PCM

0

0

0

200

200

200

400

400

400

600

600

600

800

800

800

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000

2000

3000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

UKMO-HadCM3

30

EQ

30

60

4000

5000
90N

90S

60

30

EQ

30

60

5000
90N

90S

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

0
200
400
600
800

UKMO-HadGEM1

1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

0
-2.5

5
2.5

10
7.5

15
12.5

20
17.5

25
22.5

27.5

SM.8-59

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.12b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual mean potential temperature climatology (°C), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (°C), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (°C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (°C), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al. (2005) for the period 1957-1990,
and model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

0

Global Ocean Potential Temperature Difference: Zonal Mean
Mean Model

Levitus

0

200

0

400

400

400

600
800

600
800

600

1000

1000

800

2000

2000

1000

3000

3000

2000

4000
5000
90N

60

0

-2.5

530
2.5

10
7.5

15

EQ

12.5

30
20

17.5

25
22.5

60

90S

4000
5000
90N

3000

27.5

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

0

0
200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

60

30

CGCM3.1(T63)

EQ

30

60

90S

5000
90N

0

0

200

200

200

400

400

400

600

600

600

800

800

800

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000

2000

3000

3000

3000

4000

4000

4000

5000
90N

5000
90N

30

60

90S

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

5000
90N

ECHO-G

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

2

3.260
2.8

90S

3.6

30

EQ

30

60

90S

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

30

EQ

30

60

90S

800

ECHAM5/MPI-OM

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

1.2

2.430

60

CNRM-CM3

0

EQ

1.6 EQ

4000

5000
90N

30

30

CCSM3

200

4000

CGCM3.1(T47)

0.8

60

0.4

5000
90N

BCC-CM1

60

0

4000

BCCR-BCM2.0

CSIRO-Mk3.0

Typical Error

200

200

60

30

EQ

30

-2.5

SM.8-60

-2

60

90S

-1.5

-1

0
-0.5

1
0.5

5000
90N

1.5

60

2

2.5

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

0

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Global Ocean Potential Temperature Difference: Zonal Mean
Mean Model

Levitus

0

200

0

400

400

400

600
800

600
800

600

1000

1000

800

2000

2000

1000

3000

3000

2000

4000
5000
90N

60

0

-2.5

530
2.5

10
7.5

15

EQ

12.5

30
20

17.5

25
22.5

60

90S

Typical Error

200

200

4000
5000
90N

3000

0

4000

27.5

0.4

5000
90N

FGOALS-g1.0

60

30

GFDL-CM2.0

0

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

4000

0.8

60

EQ

30

60

30

1.6 EQ

1.2

2.430
2

3.260
2.8

90S

3.6

90S

GFDL-CM2.1

4000

5000
90N

60

GISS-AOM

30

EQ

30

60

90S

5000
90N

GISS-EH

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

GISS-ER

0

0

0

200

200

200

400

400

400

600

600

600

800

800

800

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000

2000

3000

3000

3000

4000

4000

5000
90N

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

INM-CM3.0

4000

5000
90N

IPSL-CM4

60

30

EQ

30

60

90S

0

200

200

400

400

600

600

800

800

1000

1000

2000

2000

3000

3000

5000
90N

-2.5

-1.5

60

MIROC3.2(hires)

0

4000

-2

5000
90N

30

EQ

30

60

90S

30

EQ

30

60

90S

4000

-1

60

30

-0.5

EQ

0

30

60

0.5

1

90S

5000
90N

1.5

60

2

2.5

SM.8-61

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

0

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Global Ocean Potential Temperature Difference: Zonal Mean
Mean Model

Levitus

0

200

0

400

400

400

600
800

600
800

600

1000

1000

800

2000

2000

1000

3000

3000

2000

4000
5000
90N

60

-2.5

0

530
2.5

10
7.5

15

EQ

12.5

30
20

17.5

25
22.5

60

90S

4000
5000
90N

3000
4000

27.5

60

30

MRI-CGCM2.3.2

EQ

30

60

90S

0

0

0

200

200

400

400

400

600

600

600

800

800

800

1000

1000

1000

2000

2000

2000

3000

3000

3000

4000

4000

4000

5000
90N

5000
90N

30

EQ

30

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.13: Ocean salinity cross-sections:
Each page of figure S8.13a shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual mean salinity (PSU), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
• Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (PSU).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (PSU).
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al. (2005) for the period 1957-1990,
and model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

Global Ocean Salinity: Zonal Mean

Levitus

Mean Model

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Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Global Ocean Salinity: Zonal Mean

Levitus

Mean Model

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IPSL-CM4

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Global Ocean Salinity: Zonal Mean

Levitus

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SM.8-65

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Each page of figure S8.13b shows:
• Upper left panel: Observed annual mean salinity (PSU), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
• Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (PSU), simulated minus observed.
• Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (PSU), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
• All other panels: Individual model errors (PSU), simulated minus observed.
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al. (2005) for the period 1957-1990,
and model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

0

Global Ocean Salinity Difference: Zonal Mean
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Levitus

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

0

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Global Ocean Salinity Difference: Zonal Mean
Mean Model

Levitus

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SM.8-67

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0

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Global Ocean Salinity Difference: Zonal Mean
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Levitus

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.14: Zonal mean net surface heat flux:
Figure S8.14 shows:
• Annual mean, zonally averaged, total surface heat flux into the oceans.

Net Surface Heat Flux (W m-2)

The observational estimates are from da Silva (1994) and are based on COADS observations over the period 1945-1989. The
model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.

80
60
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20
0

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-60
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60
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BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
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Latitude
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MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
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UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (COADS)

SM.8-69

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.15: Ocean meridional overturning streamfunction:
Each page of figure S8.15 shows:
• Upper center panel: Ocean meridional overturning streamfunction, averaged over the multi-model ensemble (Sv).
• All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (Sv).

Global Ocean Meridional Overturning Streamfunction
Mean Model

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Global Ocean Meridional Overturning Streamfunction
Mean Model

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SM.8-71

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Global Ocean Meridional Overturning Streamfunction
Mean Model

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SM.8-72

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Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Table for Section 8.8
Table S8.1 Parameter values used in a simple climate model (MAGICC) to approximately reproduce results from the AOGCM multi-model dataset at PCMDI.

AOGCM

F2×

∆�
Teff

k

RLO

(W m–2)

(°C)

(cm2 s–1)

3: CCSM3

3.95

2.37

1.73

1.18

4: CGCM3.1(T47)

3.32

3.02

1.57

1.58

6: CNRM-CM3

3.71

2.45

1.21

1.10

7: CSIRO-Mk3.0

3.47

2.21

2.03

1.33

8: ECHAM5/MPI-OM

4.01

3.86

1.22

1.41

9: ECHO-G

3.71

3.01

2.01

1.65

10: FGOALS-g1.0

3.71

1.97

4.57

1.64

11: GFDL-CM2.0

3.50

2.35

1.42

1.47

12: GFDL-CM2.1

3.50

2.28

2.23

1.58

14: GISS-EH

4.06

3.04

2.35

1.21

15: GISS-ER

4.06

2.57

4.42

1.44

16: INM-CM3.0

3.71

2.28

0.79

1.10

17: IPSL-CM4

3.48

3.83

1.94

1.26

18: MIROC3.2(hires)

3.14

5.87

1.18

1.15

19: MIROC3.2(medres)

3.09

3.93

2.29

1.58

20: MRI-CGCM2.3.2

3.47

2.97

1.22

1.45

21: PCM

3.71

1.88

1.57

1.45

22: UKMO-HadCM3

3.81

3.06

1.01

1.65a

23: UKMO-HadGEM1

3.78

2.63

1.32

1.20

Notes:
F2�×: radiative forcing for doubled CO2 concentration (with stratospheric adjustment). Where available, values were taken from Forster
and Taylor (2006), supplemented with information from the modelling groups. The default value is 3.71 Wm-2 taken from Myhre et al.
(1998).
∆�
Teff: effective climate sensitivity at the time of doubled CO2 concentration, as defined in the glossary and discussed in Section 8.8.2.
k: ocean effective vertical diffusivity.
RLO: ratio of the equilibrium temperature changes over land versus ocean.
a
This value was set from the AOGCM information rather than being tuned in the optimization procedure.

Appendix 8.A:
Supplementary Figures and Tables

SM.8-73