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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Bachelor Thesis, Jakob Steiner
Department of Environmental Engineering (IfU) - ETH Zuerich

Abstract In earlier studies of the Yanqi Basin (Xinjiang, China) and its hydrological characteristics, the Bostan lake at its downstream end has always been modeled as one lake with one inflow and one outflow. Since 1983 it is separated by a dam into the big lake and the small lake, the latter being mostly covered in reed. To describe the inflow between the two lakes and where how much water is lost through evapotranspiration, a two-box model was developed that describes the lakes. It shows that the natural outflow of the small lake is mostly dependent on the flow via the dam. Hence, the assumption that the lake is one unit is valid in models that look at the whole area and do not model the lake in detail. Via an adapted Penman-Monteith formula and earlier measurements, evapotranspiration was modeled over the water and the reed surface. The model fits very well with measurements if looking at longer periods (decades) but does not estimate annual evapotranspiration correctly since the radiation data is insufficient. Assuming that evapotranspiration is the sole reason for model underperformance, the flow balance measurements underestimate evapotranspiration up to 41% in some years but are correct to 5% for years where details on evapotranspiration parameters are available. The average loss via evapotranspiration amounts to 52% after the construction of the dam. It can be shown however, that apart from uncertainties in reed transpirations, the seepage from the lake into groundwater in years where there was a steep increase in inflow, may also have an influence on under- or overestimation. A relation between the in- and outflows and the losses is suggested which provides a means to regulate losses to a certain extent while keeping ecological viewpoints in mind. Although evapotranspiration increases with increased inflow, it is suggested, that an increased inflow from the Yanqi Basin will also benefit the farmers in the Green Corridor when lake level regulations is maintained. Keywords: Water balance, Bostan lake, Evapotranspiration, Water shortage

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

[The map was provided by Dr. Yang. The Satellite image is from the LANDSAT, 25.10.2002] Jakob Steiner 2

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model Contents 1 Acknowledgments 2 Chapter 1 - Introduction 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 The Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Climate . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Hydrology . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Evapotranspiration Modeling . . . 2.4 Goal and organization of the paper 6 7 . 7 . 7 . 8 . 8 . 12 . 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 18 18 18 19 20 20 22 24 24 25 26 29 30 30 32 32 33 39 40

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3 Chapter 2 - 2-Box Model 3.1 The 2-Box Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 Fluvial in - and outflows . . . . . . . . 3.1.2 Evapotranspiration and Precipitation 3.1.3 Ground seepage . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.4 Lake Volume Change . . . . . . . . . .

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4 Chapter 3 - Evapotranspiration 4.1 Measured Evapotranspiration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Measured Evaporation over an open water surface 4.1.2 Measured Evapotranspiration over reed cover . . . 4.1.3 Reed cover on the big lake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.4 Reed cover on the small lake . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Modeling Evapotranspiration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Chapter 4 - Results 5.1 Evapotranspiration modeling vs. measurements . . . 5.2 Bostan lake as a two lake system . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Water Balance Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 Flow between the two lakes . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Discrepancies of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Accuracy of Evapotranspiration assumptions 5.3.2 Rising discrepancy with rising inflow . . . . . 5.4 Water Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 Evapotranspiration Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.2 Volume Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Conclusions

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7 Appendix 42 7.1 Parametrization of Penman-Monteith . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 7.2 Determination of the Pan Coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 7.3 Determination of Evapotranspiration from Reed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 8 Literature List of Tables 1 2 3 Average Inflows to the Bostan Lake between 1956 and 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Evaporation of reed on the small lake, based on data from Zhong [29]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Reed cover in the northern corner of the big lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 3 48

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 4 5 Reed Cover of the small lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Mean Measured and Modeled Evaporation over Lake Bostan (1975-2002). . . . . . . . . . . . 24

List of Figures 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Irrigated agricultural Area and irrigation water diverted from Kaidu and other inflows. . . . Evaporation and Precipitation on the Western shore of Bostan Lake, weather station Bohu County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The location of the Yanqi Basin and Bostan Lake in Xinjiang, China (Original images from WorldWind 3.1 NASA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Discharge as a function of lake height. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The weir in Bohu separates the Kaidu. The left arm reaches the small lake, the right arm the big lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Before the Tiemenguan gorge, the channel from the big lake and the orginal natural outflow join again. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The two separate lakes are visible here. The brown color indicates the reed cover of the small lake. The agricultural area is clearly visible in contrast to the surrounding arid area, also the irrigation systems can be made out (Original Image from WorldWind 3.1 NASA) . . . . . . The small lake is mainly covered with reeds, but there are batches of open water surface. On the southern side the channel and the road to the pumping station can be seen. . . . . . . . The pumping station built in 1983 is taking water directly from the big lake to Kongque River. The inflow of water from the big to the small lake through the dam can also be seen. The outflows from Lake Bostan. The pumping station was built in 1983. . . . . . . . . . . . The lake is split in two parts and in - and outflows of each part are considered separately. . In- and outflows between 1958 and 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Precipitation relative to total inflow of the lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The lake area in relation to the lake level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The lake volume from 1958 - 2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The average monthly evaporation measurements between 1975 and 2002. The monthly adjustment factor flattens the curve considerably. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The reed cover on the north-western corner grows with rising water level. . . . . . . . . . . A delta on the western lake shore in 1977 and from 2000-2002 respectively. . . . . . . . . . Determination of the small lake area via LANDSAT imagery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The small lake’s area compared to the total area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The small lake area related to the lake level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The monthly Evaporation obtained with Penman Monteith for the years 1975-2003. . . . . Annual Evaporation obtained with Penman-Monteith for the lake surface (1975-2003). . . . Annual Evaporation according to the PM model and the measurements. . . . . . . . . . . . The Western Shore of the small lake in September/October 1999-2002. . . . . . . . . . . . . The in and outputs for the two box model averaged over the time period of 1983 - 2002. . . The inputs and outputs of the 2 box model over the years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The in and outputs for the two box model averaged over the time period of 1983 - 2002. . . The model output subtracted from the model input, taken as a fraction of the input (model error). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The modeled outflow from the big lake over the dam and the inflow to the small lake respectively (1958-2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The correlation between the big lake surplus and small lake outflow (1983-2002) . . . . . . . Water lost via evapotranspiration as obtained by the 2 box model and the measurements . The error of the model is subject to the discharge into the lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water Loss as a fraction of the total inflow. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Evapotranspiration is mainly dependent on Lake area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . 7 8

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8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 With the dam closed, the small lake’s area would have decreased. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . With the dam closed, the big lake’s area would have increased. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water lost via Evapotranspiration compared to inflow from the Yanqi Basin. . . . . . . . . A time lag of at least one year can be observed between the inflow from the Yanqi Basin and the reaction of the lake area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water discharged to the Konque River compared to inflow from the Yanqi Basin. . . . . . . The steep increase in pumping for ecological releases dir not affect the lake area gravely. . . Between 80% and 30% of the total inflow are lost to the atmosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Between 60% and 25% of the total inflow are discharged into the Konque River. . . . . . . . The albedo of a water surface as obtained through the Fresnel equation. . . . . . . . . . . . The average obtained cloud fraction for each month with the max. and min. expected deviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Pan coefficient (Kpan ) according to Perreira [21] and Zhong [29]. . . . . . . . . . . . . Using the Pan coefficient according to Perreira [21] does not improve results. . . . . . . . . . 34 . 34 . 35 . . . . . . 36 37 38 39 39 42

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 1. Acknowledgments This paper would not have been possible without the support of Dr.Yang Peng-nian. When I visited Lake Bostan in summer 2009, he not only introduced me to his home town Urumqi, its languages, its food and its culture but also arranged a three day trip to the Yanqi Basin, where I had the opportunity to see the area, meet farmers and researchers. He introduced me to the realities on the ground, to the police who were suspicious of my presence after the recent riots and to Sliced Duck Liver and Laghman. He visited Zuerich in March 2010 and was again very helpful with data sets and translating Chinese reports that were essential for a deeper understanding. In Urumqi it was furthermore Mr. Yusupjan Rusuli who I only met for a very short time, but who supplied me with very valuable information in advance to my trip. He made sure I knew some words to speak when I arrived in Xinjiang. Now I have a book in Uyghur and papers in Chinese lying at home, and two languages that sooner or later need to be conquered. I am very grateful to both since they not only introduced me into a topic that I could base my Bachelor thesis on, but also opened the door to Central Asia for me. In Zuerich Dr.Haijing Wang has provided me the LANDSAT imagery and advised me on processing them. She also gave me valuable input on Evaporation Modeling and Data and has made it possible to interpolate missing data. Without her dedication to provide material and data, this paper would have been a lot less coherent. I want to specially thank Dr.Li Haitao, who has provided me all contact details before going to Xinjiang and has introduced me into the topic when I started to show interest for it more than a year back. He has also answered my questions while compiling this paper. Dr.Wolfgang Kinzelbach has encouraged me to travel to Xinjiang and was the important link between the two countries which gave me the opportunity to work on a topic that is geographically located far away from Zuerich, but needed material was always accessible. Last but not least Ms. Li Ning has been a great supervisor who was available at all times for suggestions on data sets, modeling and Chinese units. Without her oversight I could not have covered all aspects addressed in this paper for which I am very grateful. She has encouraged me to answer questions I would not have come up with myself and made sure I stuck to the tasks set at the beginning of my work. I enjoyed getting insight into work I previously was not familiar with with her guidance and hope that future students will have that privilege too.

Jakob Steiner

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 2. Chapter 1 - Introduction 2.1. Introduction The Bostan Lake is the 15th largest lake in China and the largest freshwater lake in the province of Xinjiang. It is situated downstream of the Yanqi Basin, which is an important agricultural area of China. The main crops there include cotton, tomatos, chilli and grapes. Since the 1950s and the construction of irrigation channels, the area of irrigated agricultural land has increased steadily (see fig.1). The increased use of river water for irrigation has lead to increased salinization and a water shortage in the Kongque River and the Green Corridor (see the map in fig.3). As a consequence, a number of hydrological and agricultural studies have dealt with the water resources in this area in recent years. Dong et al. [9] gives a brief overview over the recent developments and problems that have arisen from water stress and salinization. Li [16] discusses water sustainability of the basin in more detail and gives a comprehensive list of literature back to the 1960s, mostly in Chinese. Brunner [5] looks at the salinization of the Yanqi Basin and how to assess it with remote sensing. In these studies, the Bostan lake was, for the sake of simplification, referred to as a single lake system. According to Brunner [5] it was furthermore assumed, that no water flows naturally from the Eastern to the Western part of the lake. This paper will look at both parts of the lake and the water flow from one to the other, to assess whether the simplification applied so far is reasonable. It will also look at Evapotranspiration Modeling over the lake surface and how the lake level and the total water lost to the atmosphere are interrelated.

Figure 1: Irrigated agricultural Area and irrigation water diverted from Kaidu and other inflows.

2.2. The Study Area Bostan lake lies downstream of the Yanqi Basin, south of the Tien Shan mountains and north of the Taklamakan desert in China’s most Western province Xinjiang (41◦ 56’ - 42◦ 14’ N, 86◦ 40’ - 87◦ 26’ E). The whole prefecture, Bayingolin, has over 1 mio. inhabitants with a major focus on agriculture upstream of the lake (Yanqi basin) as well as downstream (Green Corridor) and petro-industry in the capital Korla. Since oil drilling has started in the Taklamakan desert south of Korla, the area’s population is increasing rapidly.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 2.2.1. Climate The climate in the Yanqi Basin is continental and dry since it is located deeply inside Eurasia and far away from the sea. The annual average precipitation is about 76.58 mm/a, falling mainly during the summer months. The annual average pan evaporation is about 2309.9 mm/a (weather station in Bohu County, 1976-2002, see fig. 2). Another study with climate data from Yanqi weather station has found an increasing trend for precipitation and temperature (Wuenneman et al. [25]).

Figure 2: Evaporation and Precipitation on the Western shore of Bostan Lake, weather station Bohu County

The microclimate on the Western Shore of the lake, where the Yanqi Basin is located, is considerably cooler and more humid than that on the South-Eastern part. Here the lake is directly bordered by the extensions of the Tukruk desert.

2.2.2. Hydrology The Bostan Lake lies just south of the Tian Shan mountains and is with about 1000 km2 the biggest fresh water lake in the province with a maximum depth of 16 m reached in 2000 when the lake level was at a 50-year high (Zhang et al. [28]). It is fed through the Kaidu and the Huangshui Canal via the Yanqi Basin, the Qingshui, the Quhuigou and the Wushitala from the north (directly to the Big Lake). The total catchment area of Bostan Lake includes approximately 55 600 km2 . All rivers originate from the Tien Shan mountains, were 722 glaciers with an area of 445 km2 provide about 5 108 m3 of water per year which is about 15% of the Kaidu runoff (Xi et al. [26]). Only Kaidu River provides water all year round (see Table 1).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 3: The location of the Yanqi Basin and Bostan Lake in Xinjiang, China (Original images from WorldWind 3.1 NASA)

Table 1: Average Inflows to the Bostan Lake between 1956 and 2002.

inflow from the Tien Shan [108 m3 ] Kaidu and Huangshui Northern Inflows Total 41.78 5.66 47.44

inflow into the lake [108 m3 ] 24.47 1.86 26.33

Amount used in agriculture or lost (%) 41 67 44.5

The only outflow of Bostan Lake is the Kongque River which flows to the south through the city of Korla to the so called Green Corridor, a forest belt separating the Taklamakan and Tukruk deserts. The river used to end in Lop Nor, which already in 1972 it did not reach anymore and today Lop Nor is dried up (Dong et al. [9]; see fig. 3). Like all other rivers in Xinjiang, the Kongque River and the Tarim river are intracontinental rivers that never reach the sea. Bostan Lake is separated by a natural dam, into the so called ’Big Lake’ (or ’Eastern Lake’ on Chinese maps) and a reed covered ’Small Lake’ (’Western Lake’). Until 1983 the only natural outflow from the lake was on the South Western tip, where Kongque River starts. In 1983 the dam was extended, fitted with gates and a pumping station was constructed at the southern shore of the big lake. Subsequently, the course of the Kaidu river was changed and it now discharges into the big as well as the small lake. The Kaidu river is diverted at the Baolangsumu weir just outside Bohu City (see fig.5). On the outgoing side, water is now pumped directly from the big lake to Kongque river via a channel. Here it joins with the outflow of the small lake and a channel coming from the Dashan Kou station in the north (see fig.6). The discharge via the channel varies between 4 m3 /s in winter and 24 m3 /s in summer time (Zhang et al. [27]). From fig. 4 it can be seen that water from the small lake is discharging in a natural function of the lake level while the discharge of the big lake is completely independent of the water level and Jakob Steiner 9

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model is subject to change only with differing water demands in the downstream areas. The weir at Baolangsumu (fig.5) marks the entry into the 2-box model, the weir before Tiemenguan (fig.6) the exit.

Figure 4: Discharge as a function of lake height.

Figure 5: The weir in Bohu separates the Kaidu. The left arm reaches the small lake, the right arm the big lake.

Figure 6: Before the Tiemenguan gorge, the channel from the big lake and the orginal natural outflow join again.

The small lake is covered with reeds, but as can be seen in fig.7, there are batches of open water surface in between. The reeds grow from May to September and are harvested each fall for the production of paper. On the south side of the small lake the artificial channel is depicted, which takes the water from the pumping station to Kongque River (see fig. 8 and 9). The outflows from the lake are presented in graph 10. Jakob Steiner 10

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 7: The two separate lakes are visible here. The brown color indicates the reed cover of the small lake. The agricultural area is clearly visible in contrast to the surrounding arid area, also the irrigation systems can be made out (Original Image from WorldWind 3.1 NASA)

Figure 8: The small lake is mainly covered with reeds, but there are batches of open water surface. On the southern side the channel and the road to the pumping station can be seen.

Figure 9: The pumping station built in 1983 is taking water directly from the big lake to Kongque River. The inflow of water from the big to the small lake through the dam can also be seen.

The natural resources of Bostan lake are an important economic and ecological factor for the region. The reed zones around Bostan lake are a habitat for various bird species, and the lake itself is rich in fish. The fish catch in 1998 was over 2500 tons. The small lake is a major production area for reeds in China. 60,000 tons of dry reed were harvested in the year 2000, compared to 250 tons in 1950. Reed made up 5.1% of domestic pulp for the production of paper in China (Zhuang [30]). Between 1950 and 1988, the surface level of the lake dropped from 1049 m to 1045 m, the lake’s surface area was reduced by over 20%. The decreasing water level of the lake led to a considerable loss of reed zones, endangering the habitat of various bird species. The area of reed wetland has been reduced from 558.4 km2 in 1958 to 300 km2 in 1988, a reduction of about 40%. Of the remaining, a total of 80% has been affected by deterioration. Reed yields have subsequently been reduced from 250 thousand tons/year to 60 thousand tons/year. (for an overview of Bostan lake’s ecosystem see Ciesin [8]).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 10: The outflows from Lake Bostan. The pumping station was built in 1983.

2.3. Evapotranspiration Modeling Evaporation indicates the process whereby liquid water is converted into water vapor (vaporization) and removed from the evaporating surface (vapor removal). The three main factors that control evaporation are

- the supply of energy to provide the latent heat for vaporization. Generally the energy source is the solar radiation. - the ability to transport vapor away from the surface. It depends on the wind velocity and the humidity gradient above the surface. - water availability.

As often meteorological stations are not available on the water surface, the data used to model evaporation and the measurements of evaporation are both obtained from sites in the vicinity of the water body. Atmospheric flows above a vast water area can rarely be approximated as stationary and planar-homogeneous with no mean subsidence available. Since the presence of the water body decreases the temperature above, it influences the vaporizing heat, additionally the wind directions and velocities over the lake surface are difficult to assess. As noted earlier, the micro climates changes from relatively cool and humid on the Western, to hot and dry on the South-Eastern shore. This also influences the evaporation from the water surface. Additionally, the lake does not have a homogenous water table but is partially covered by reed from the months May through to September. While evaporation refers only to an open water surface, transpiration describes the process where water leaves Jakob Steiner 12

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model the land surface via the soil or vegetation. The two processes are combined in the term evapotranspiration.

2.4. Goal and organization of the paper In 2002 the Yanqi basin research project was started as a collaborative effort by the Institute of Environmental Engineering (IfU), ETH Zurich, the China Institute of Geo-Environmental Monitoring (CIGEM) in Beijing and the Agricultural University of Xinjiang in Urumqi in order to understand the dynamics of flow and salt transport and to find strategies for sound water resources management in view of sustainable development. A number of studies have so far looked at this area and dealt with different aspects of the hydrological cycle and the impact of agricultural use of water. The area was chosen, since many aspects of the Yanqi basin are well documented and because it has a lake in the downstream, which is acting as an integrator of outputs from the basin. So far, the lake has, as a simplification, been assumed to be a single water body, while in reality, it is separated by a dam. This paper looks at this simplification and aims to determine whether the assumption is justified. Therefore, the water balance of the whole lake will be investigated. In Chapter 2 a simple two-box model will be developed, which represents the big and the small lake and all their in and outflows. With this method, the amount of water flowing from the big to the small lake in each year can be presented and the amount of outgoing water that is not covered by direct outflows can be determined. The other major factors discussed are the change of the lake volume via the change of lake height and evapotranspiration. Chapter 3 will look at Evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration over the big and the small lake is modeled and the results are compared to measurements from lysimeters close to the lake. Since a comparison with measurements is possible, some space will be given to the modeling effort to determine which effort approximates measurements for the evaporation over the lake surface best. The possibility to model Evapotranspiration more accurately in future would be a benefit for further research. Since the amount of water that leaves the system via the air is considerable for such a vast area, the parameters’ uncertainties may have some significance for the water balance described by the box model. In Chapter 4 outcomes are presented and discussed. In the final chapter a conclusion is drawn over the results. As far as possible, relationships between water loss through evapotranspiration and lake height will be looked at which, since the lake is regulated, will give an indication of how water resources needed in the downstream area can be managed in the lake.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 3. Chapter 2 - 2-Box Model The data used in this chapter were all obtained from Dr.Yang Peng-nian from Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi. They include measurements from different weirs in the Yanqi Basin and the pumping station on the southern shore of Bostan Lake.

3.1. The 2-Box Model The Bostan lake and its in - and outputs were aggregated into a simple 2-box model (see fig.11). This way, the evapotranspiration on both water surfaces can be determined separately (since extensive parts of the lakes are covered in reed, there is a considerable difference) and when both balances are determined, the surplus of the big lake should ideally match the deficit of the small lake. This surplus/deficit does then represent the yearly flow from the big to the small lake indicated by the red arrow.

Figure 11: The lake is split in two parts and in - and outflows of each part are considered separately.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 3.1.1. Fluvial in - and outflows

Figure 12: In- and outflows between 1958 and 2002

The inflows and outflows are presented in fig.12. The Kaidu river is divided into two streams at a weir north of the small lake (Baolangsumu). Here, the inflow is measured. The amount of water that is diverted for agriculture after the weir is not known. Included in the inflows is the water drained from irrigated land into the aquifers and the lakes and all the northern inflows. In the box model they are not presented as a separate branch but rather included in the inflow from Kaidu river into the big lake.

3.1.2. Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Evapotranspiration is measured and modeled and is an "outflow" quantity of the model. It will be discussed in detail in Chapter 3 (4). Precipitation measurements are available from Bohu County (1975-2006) and were included in the model. It is not known how precipitation takes place over the year (snow, rain) and if there is as much precipitation over the lake as over land. Precipitation was neglected in studies looking at the whole Yanqi Basin, but looking at the lake only, its amount makes an inclusion justifiable. Although it accounts for only 3.5% of the inflow on average between 1983 - 2002, it is obvious from fig. 13 that it should not be neglected to assure the validity of the model, since in some years it represents up to 8% of the total inflow.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 13: Precipitation relative to total inflow of the lake.

3.1.3. Ground seepage Wuenneman et al. [25] provides a comprehensive overview of the sediment layers of Bostan’s lake bottom to about 10 m depth. They argue that most of the sediment consists of bed load and suspended sediments provided by Kaidu river and dead organic matter from the lake itself. Measurements for permeability are not available. It is assumed that the sediment cover is largely impermeable and drainage into the lake bottom is thus not considered in the box model. As vegetation on the lake shore may lower the groundwater table, seepage from the lake may occur but was neglected in this paper.

3.1.4. Lake Volume Change The area of the lake was available for all years. Also a relationship between lake area and volume was available and the change in volume can thus be plotted (see fig. 15 and fig. 14). It can be seen, how until the construction of the dam in 1983, the volume decreased continuously because of the ever increasing use of irrigation water in the Yanqi Basin. Since the construction of the dam, this development has reversed and it is attempted to keep the lake level stable. Nevertheless, it still fluctuates between 1045.00 m a.s.l. (in 1987) and up to 1048.65 m a.s.l. (in 2002). Since volume measurements available are for both, the big and the small lake, the volumes of the two parts needs to be considered independently. This way the volume changes can be included in the respective box of the model. It was assumed that the relative volume change was directly proportional to the area change. The small lake’s area compared to the total area (see fig. 20) gave a factor that was multiplied with the total volume to generate the small lake’s and big lake’s volumes separately. Jakob Steiner 16

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model The volume change may indicate an inflow (if negative) or an outflow (if positive).

Figure 14: The lake area in relation to the lake level.

Figure 15: The lake volume from 1958 - 2002.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 4. Chapter 3 - Evapotranspiration The evaporation over Bostan lake is determined in two ways. Measurements from a site close to the lake (Bohu County) were made available by Dr.Yang Peng-nian. The meteorological data for determining Evaporation via the Penman-Monteith equation were available for a more distant station (Korla) from the NOAA database (ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/gsod). Evapotranspiration over the reed area is considered based on a study by Zhong [29]. Once the total evapotranspiration amounts for each year are determined, they are fed into the 2-box model.

4.1. Measured Evapotranspiration Evapotranspiration is measured with Lysimeters. A pan filled with water is placed on scales and the amount of water inside is monitored at an hourly or daily scale. Knowing the diameter of the Pan, the water lost via vaporization and convection over a standard surface area can be determined.

4.1.1. Measured Evaporation over an open water surface Using this method for estimating evaporation for large water surfaces like Bostan Lake poses two main factors of uncertainty. First, the walls of the pan emit additional heat (which they absorbed from solar radiation) and thus influence the measurement. There is general agreement that the actual Evaporation over a water surface is approximately 70% of the measured Evaporation in a Class-A Pan (Linacre [17]). But Linacre [17] also argues, that this influence increases disproportionally with increasing Evaporation. Second, the atmospheric parameters are not constant over the whole lake area. Especially wind convection which plays an important role, may be heterogeneous. Additionally, the micro climate over Bostan Lake changes from relatively humid and cool on the Western shore, to dry and hot on the South-Eastern shore which borders the desert. Thus evaporation increases from West to East. Measurements of evaporation are available from 1975 to 2002 for a weather station in Bohu county which lies just north of the small lake, south of Yanqi city (see fig. 2). The pan had a diameter of 200 mm. To make these measurements over land applicable to the lake surface, they were adjusted with three factors according to Zhong [29].

Ea = K1 ∗ K2 ∗ K3 ∗ Em

(1)

where K1 is an adjustment factor owing to the first uncertainty factor mentioned above that varies over the months (see fig.16), K2 is a factor that considers the size of the lake (0.84) and K3 is a temperature adjustment (0.99). Em is the actual measured evaporation. The average evaporation for this period was thus 1143.4 [mm/a]. What Zhong [29] refers to as three separate factors is commonly know as the pan coefficient (Kpan ) in literature. Numerous ways to determine it from meteorological data are available in literature. An adaptation of such an approach is discussed in the Appendix.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 16: The average monthly evaporation measurements between 1975 and 2002. The monthly adjustment factor flattens the curve considerably.

4.1.2. Measured Evapotranspiration over reed cover LANDSAT images of the years 1977, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002 were used to determine the area of the small lake and the extent of the reed cover on Bostan Lake. All images are either from September or October, which is the time when the reed is in its final growth stage. The area was determined by adding manually an area segment to the LANDSAT image via the freely available IL WIS 3.6 software (http://52north.org/). The images obtained from the LANDSAT satellite have a resolution of 30m x 30 m per pixel (60m x 60 m for the image in 1977) and one can thus differentiate between open water surface and vegetation cover (see fig. 19). Nevertheless, patches of water may at times be overgrown to such an extent, that the decision whether the vegetation is covering water or land is not possible anymore. NDVI (’normalized difference vegetation index’) for the area presented in Brunner [5] does give a guideline. There are two areas of the lake that are covered with reeds, the north-western corner of the big lake and nearly the entire small lake. For the small lake, measurements from Zhong [29] for the years of 1981 and 1985 give an indication of reed evapotranspiration in the different growth stages. Since it is not clear in Zhong [29] to which reed cover the author refers his absolute data can not be used. Nevertheless he suggests evaporation rates for different reed covers and provides relative area coverage (see table 2). The equivalent values are used for the reed covered area in the North-Western Tip of the Big Lake. He also suggests an evaporation rate for the open water patches in between the reed cover which is below the average value obtained by measurements (as shown above). Although there may be a different evaporation from open water that is surrounded by reed since the reed has an influence especially on the advective transport - for the sake of consistency, the value obtained from measurements was used for this paper. Possible empirical approaches via meteorological data are suggested in the Appendix.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model
Table 2: Evaporation of reed on the small lake, based on data from Zhong [29].

Reed Type I Evaporation [mm/a] Relative cover[%] 3019 21.9

Reed Type II 2055 20.3

Reed Type III 1304 57.8

open water surface 963 100

4.1.3. Reed cover on the big lake The reed cover in the North-Western corner was measured for the time before the dam was built (1977) and after its construction where the measurements for 4 years were averaged (see table 3). From the post-dam measurements a linear function of the lake height was derived (see equation 2) to determine the reed cover, since the reed cover for that time was correlated at near unity to the lake height (see fig. 17). It is not surprising to see such a linear relationship, since lake height and lake area are equally related (see fig. 15). With more water covering the shore lands, the reed cover increases in directly proportional fashion. These values (presented in table 3) were multiplied with the respective evapotranspiration values from table 2.
Table 3: Reed cover in the northern corner of the big lake.

pre-dam reed cover Reed Cover [km ]
2

post-dam reed cover 140.24

161.75

Ar = 9.223zl − 9528 where Ar is the reed covered area [km2 ] and zl is the lake level elevation [m a.s.l.] of the big lake.

(2)

In fig. 18 it can be seen how the fluctuating lake level impacts the shore line and the reed belt. In the image for 1977, the lake height is at 1047 m a.s.l. while in 2000 it’s at 1048.51 m a.s.l., in 2001 at 1048.34 m a.s.l. and in 2002 at 1048.65 m a.s.l.

4.1.4. Reed cover on the small lake The small lake area and the respective reed cover were obtained from the LANDSAT images. It is obvious from fig.21 that the area of the small lake is dependent on the lake height and can thus be obtained from equation 3.

As = 31.42zl − 32596 where As is the area of the small lake [km2 ] and zl is the lake level elevation [m a.s.l.] of the big lake.

(3)

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 17: The reed cover on the north-western corner grows with rising water level.

Figure 18: A delta on the western lake shore in 1977 and from 2000-2002 respectively.

Figure 19: Determination of the small lake area via LANDSAT imagery.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 20: The small lake’s area compared to the total area

Figure 21: The small lake area related to the lake level.

The relative reed cover as obtained from the LANDSAT images was rather stable around 91% (see table 4). This value was used to multiply with the respective evapotranspiration from table 2.
Table 4: Reed Cover of the small lake.

1977 lake area [km2 ] reed cover [km2 ] Relative cover[%] 309.94 284.79 91.9

1999 329.56 302.34 91.7

2000 362.73 319.02 87.9

2001 353.41 321.22 90.6

2002 355.07 332.90 93.8

mean 342.14 311.85 91.1

4.2. Modeling Evapotranspiration Numerous Equations based on different parameters and assumptions are available to determine Evaporation. The equation underlying most others is the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. It is based on the energy balance and an aerodynamic part. Its detailed structure has been discussed and approved in literature (see a discussion of parameters in Penman [20] or for the FAO standard in Allen et al. [1]). A major disadvantage of the Penman approach is its need of a number of meteorological parameters, some of which are often not readily available (see equation 4). Other simplified versions of the PM approach have been developed, often needing less parameters (see e.g. Arasteh et al. [3] or Sumner et al. [23] for the Priestly Taylor equation). An additional problem is posed by the fact that climate data via NOAA are only available for Korla, a city that lies 20 km South-West of the small lake (and about 70 km from the big lake surface) and about 100 m below the water table of Bostan lake. As another study in the area has pointed out, meteorological differences may be large already for stations that are not very far apart (Xi et al. [26]). Data for Korla station are available since 1975. 1 ∆(Rn − G) + γf (u)(es − ea ) λ ∆+γ

ETP =

(4)

where ETP is the potential Evapotranspiration [mm d−1 ], λ is the latent heat of vaporisation [M J kg −1 ], Jakob Steiner 22

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model Rn is the net radiation at the surface [M J m−2 d−1 ], G is the soil heat flux density [M J m−2 d−1 ], f (u) is a function of the wind speed at 2m height [m s−1 ], es is the saturation vapor pressure [kP a], ea is the actual vapor pressure [kP a] and thus es -ea the saturated vapor pressure deficit [kP a]. ∆ is the slope of the vapor pressure curve [kP a ◦ C −1 ] and γ the psychrometric constant [kP a ◦ C −1 ]. The parameters of the Penman-Monteith equation have been adapted to describe Evaporation from a vast open water surface. A detailed discussion of the equation and the parameters used in the case of Bostan lake can be found in the Appendix (7). Fig.22 depicts the problem of determining Evaporation via Penman without having any radiation measurements. Parameters that are measured, like wind speed, may be quite different from March in one year to March in another. But since they do play only a minor role compared to radiation, these differences are smoothed out and the Evaporation curves for each year are eventually nearly the same. Fig. 23 shows the evaporation between 1975 and 2003. The amounts obtained are below the values obtained by Li [16]. The mean annual evaporation over a water surface obtained for Korla data between 1975 and 2003 is 1150 [mm/a]. By adding a so called crop factor to the evaporation obtained from PM, the evapotranspiration from vegetation may equally be determined. Since the reed cover is probably heterogeneous and no more detailed research for evapotranspiration from reed in this area was available, the determination of a valid crop factor was impossible. This approach was therefore abandoned.

Figure 22: The monthly Evaporation obtained with Penman Monteith for the years 1975-2003.

Figure 23: Annual Evaporation obtained with PenmanMonteith for the lake surface (1975-2003).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 5. Chapter 4 - Results In the final chapter, the main questions that have been asked at the beginning of the paper (2.4) will be looked at again and answered as far as possible. Conclusions will be drawn about the relevance of the outcomes for future papers or agro-political decisions.

5.1. Evapotranspiration modeling vs. measurements Comparing the results of the Penman-Monteith model to the data obtained by measurements from Bohu county gives mixed results. As can be seen from the mean values in table 5 the results fit perfectly well for the average values. The average model value of the time period 1975-2002 overestimates the measured value for the lake surface by only 0.5%. Looking at fig. 24 shows a different picture. The fact that the modeled data is only fluctuating modestly is due to the dominating factor of radiation. Radiation measurements were not available from the weather station and were thus modeled from annually constant data (see Appendix) but a variability of 20% was assumed for the cloud fraction values used. The fact that the measured data lie almost entirely inside the range of the model suggests a good fit. The outliers can be explained with years where cloud fraction was especially low or high, which can be attributed to increased sandstorms, or an El-Nino event in the respective year. The correlation between model and measurement is nevertheless not given.
Table 5: Mean Measured and Modeled Evaporation over Lake Bostan (1975-2002).

Measurement (Bohu County) Evaporation [mm/a] 1143.4

PM Model (Korla City) 1150

The Penman-Monteith equation for Evaporation over an open water surface in combination with data obtained from the 70 km further south-west located weather station of Korla does not bring satisfying results if one wants to compare the evaporation data of specific years, or even less so if one wants to look at the evaporation development within one year. Since the deviation of 20% in cloud fraction amounts to a deviation of about 100 mm/a which again amounts to nearly 4% of the annual average inflow into the lake it can be seen that an inclusion of monthly cloud fraction values for the time series should be attempted in future. Henceforth, the values of the measurements were used for the water balance.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 24: Annual Evaporation according to the PM model and the measurements.

5.2. Bostan lake as a two lake system Some results concerning flows between the two lakes can be derived straightforward from the in - and outflow data for the time period of 1983 - 2002. A correlation for the time before is of little interest, since there was no outflow via the pumping station before the construction of the dam. The correlation between the inflow into the big lake and the outflow through the pumping station is low (R=0.38). This is due to the regulation at the pumping station, which has a maximum level no matter what the inflow is. It comes rather surprisingly, that the inflow into the small lake and its outflow do not seem to be correlated (R=0.30). This suggests, that a lot of the water is actually lost through evapotranspiration, or an increase in the inflow is felt more than a year later in the outflow of the lake, thus the water is stored in the small lake for a longer period of time. The latter assumption is supported by the observation from the LANDSAT images, where patches of water are growing and shrinking on the Western outskirts of the lake (see fig. 25). Additionally, the inflow via the dam actually seems to play a far more important role when it comes to the water balance of the small lake (R=0.82) which strongly suggests, that the lake is "one" and not two separate entities. The fact that the correlation is skewed can be explained with the fact, that with increasing inflow and increasing water table, the extra water is first filling up otherwise dry space before it reaches the outflow at the lower end of the small lake. Additionally, the lake is regulated via the pumping station, which may react to an increased inflow (and thus lower the weir) before it reaches the outlet of the smaller lake. It is equally not surprising, that there is no correlation (R=-0.09) between the inflow of the small lake and the outflow of the big lake. The latter is lying topographically upstream and normally there is no water flowing from the small to the big lake. Nevertheless, after the construction of the dam, the possibility of a reverse flow through the dam has appeared. As soon as the pumping from the big lake becomes too strong and the water table falls below the water table of the small lake such a situation takes place. From 2000 on Jakob Steiner 25

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model ecological releases were carried out via the pumping station ([priv. comm.]). These ecological releases were designed to prevent the green corridor from drying out completely.

Figure 25: The Western Shore of the small lake in September/October 1999-2002.

The close relationship between the big and the small lake is also underlined by the near unity correlation of the lake level of the big lake and the small lake area (see fig. 21).

5.2.1. Water Balance Results The results for the 2-box model are presented in fig. 26. The in - and outflows from the model were averaged over the time after the construction of the dam, from which time on the lake is separated in two. This gives a rough idea of the water flow in the lake. 69% of the inflow reach the lake via the left arm of the Kaidu river that reaches the big lake (Standard deviation: 7%). 28% are diverted into the small lake (Standard deviation: 6%). 3% of the inflow are accounted for by precipitation (Standard deviation: 2%). There is no trend in any inflow. Over the lake surface, evapotranspiration takes place and reduces the water amount by 50% (Standard deviation: 14%). It should be noted that evaporation is the most uncertain parameter of the model. It can be seen that, although the small lake makes up only about 28% of the total lake’s area, 37% of the total water lost via evaporation leaves over this mostly reed covered part. The volume changes account for an outflow if from one to the next year the lake level rises, since then additional inflow water is stored in the gained volume. If the lake level sinks, volume changes are an inflow, since the stored water is released. Overall it accounts for a very small part of the water balance (ca. 1.3% each year). The fact that with a rising water table, the area also increases, results in an increased water loss through evapotranspiration and thus not all stored water is later released. This will be discussed at a later stage. 18% leave the lake via the natural outflow (Standard deviation: 11%), the pumping accounts for 29% (Standard deviation: 10%). About 10% of the water flows from the big lake into the small lake via the dam (Standard deviation: 21%). The last values are obviously subject to especially strong inter-annual variations. The water balance underestimated the outflow by 2% (thus there are 98% outflow). Since the discharges of Kaidu river and Konque River are known via trusted measurements, the precipitation measurements are assumed to be correct and ground seepage is assumed to be negligible, this discrepancy can be attributed to evapotranspiration. As explained before, there is an increasing gradient of evapotranspiration from West to East. Since data are for the western shore, an underestimation is not surprising. The possible scenarios will be discussed further down. Jakob Steiner 26

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 26: The in and outputs for the two box model averaged over the time period of 1983 - 2002.

In fig. 27 all in - and outflows are presented. Obviously in some years the discrepancies are very high but the overall model performance is good. The correlation between in and outputs is high (R=0.86) as shown in fig. 28. This suggests that the model is valid not only for averages over long time spans but gives reasonable results for each year.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 27: The inputs and outputs of the 2 box model over the years.

Figure 28: The in and outputs for the two box model averaged over the time period of 1983 - 2002.

From fig. 29 it is obvious that the model underestimation of outputs varies between a 36% overestimation and a 34% underestimation between 1958 and 2002. Why such strong discrepancies occur will be explained further down.

Figure 29: The model output subtracted from the model input, taken as a fraction of the input (model error).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 5.2.2. Flow between the two lakes In fig. 30 the water flow between the two lakes is presented. The deficit of the small lake is inverted from the negative for presentation purposes. Ideally both, deficit of the small lake and surplus of the big lake, should be the same, thus denoting the water that is exchanged via the dam. It is obvious that the time between 1986 and 1998, and thus the time after the construction of the dam, is presented poorly in the model. A negative surplus of the big lake is probable since increased pumping from the big lake has caused water to flow from the small to the big lake. But the deficit of the small lake does not support this observation. As will be explained at a later stage, the reed evapotranspiration being the most uncertain parameter, the interflow between the lakes is most probably better described by the surplus of the big lake, which will thus subsequently be used as the interflow between the two lake parts. The correlation between the surplus and the deficit of the two lake parts is nevertheless high (R=0.80). The difference between the surplus of the big lake and the deficit of the small lake is the difference between the modeled and measured evapotranspiration. From these results, reverse flow from the big into the small lake has taken place in the years 1980 (which is before the construction of the dam), 1983-1986, 1993, 1995 and 1997. These results need to be validated with observation data if available at some point.

Figure 30: The modeled outflow from the big lake over the dam and the inflow to the small lake respectively (1958-2002).

With the available flow between the lakes, a compelling argument for the lake being one can be made, even though the dam separates the two parts. The correlation between the discharge through the dam and the outflow of the small lake is considerably higher (R=0.81, see fig. 31), than between the natural inflow of the small lake and its outflow (R=0.38).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 31: The correlation between the big lake surplus and small lake outflow (1983-2002)

The flow through the dam is nearly entirely dependent on the inflow from Kaidu river into the big lake (R=0.95) which explains why inflow of the big lake and outflow of the small lake are so closely related. Considering the fact that the river delta is very close to the dam, this makes sense. Also, the lake height is closely correlated to the inflow from Kaidu and with increasing water table, the seepage through the natural dam increases.

5.3. Discrepancies of the model It remains the question where the uncertainty of the model is hidden. Since the measurements of in and outflows are assumed correct, the model of lake stage -volume relationship is assumed to be reasonably accurate and precipitation and ground seepage are likely negligible, it can be found in evapotranspiration measurements. This possibility is discussed below. An additional possibility owing to the rising water table and groundwater influx is discussed as well.

5.3.1. Accuracy of Evapotranspiration assumptions Both evapotranspiration measurements (for the reed covered and the open water surface) are based on parameters that may not be describing the situation entirely correctly. In the measurements of evaporation over the open water surface the K1 factor from equation 1 is most likely responsible for uncertainty, to some extent also K2 . It is obtained from measurements of just one or two years in the 80s and thus not exact for different years. Since it is subject to change with different temperatures and radiation, it is most likely going to be more variable in different years. Jakob Steiner 30

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model The K factors Zhong [29] uses are referred to as Kpan in literature and can be determined via meteorological parameters including mean wind speed, relative humidity and fetch. A discussion of this approach and its possible application for this water balance is addressed in the Appendix. As shown there, the results obtained via the measurements and the approach from Zhong [29] can probably be accepted as reasonable correct. It is thus concluded, that the errors from the model can be attributed to the measurements of evapotranspiration from reed vegetation. For reed evapotranspiration rates, data from two years in the 80s were available from Zhong [29] which lead to an average evapotranspiration rate of 1832 mm/a. Since no other data are available, this value has to be assumed constant, a non realistic scenario. The reed types may have changed over the years, in some years farmers may have harvested collectively earlier or later for economic or climatic reasons which would all affect evapotranspiration values gravely. As argued above, evaporation estimates for the open water surface are probably correct. Hence one can boil the water balance down to the evapotranspiration from the reed surface and compare this time series to the value that was used in the model (see fig. 32). Not surprisingly, the measurements show a relatively good fit in the time period from 1977 - 1984 which is the time span where detailed information about evapotranspiration were available from Zhong [29]. In the years before and after, the measurements clearly underestimate the actual evapotranspiration rate, up to 41% in some years. In some years, other model parameters do seem to be incorrect, since negative evapotranspiration is not possible (see year 1995). According to Ondok et al. [19], evapotranspiration from reed covered areas should range between 1000 and 3500 mm/a. Errors that exceed this range will be addressed in the subsequent paragraph. Observations of the actual reed cover are not available for many years. As Dong et al. [9] have pointed out, the reeds did not only decrease in area but also in quality with the ever sinking water table. It may not have been homogeneous over years and hence cause transpiration from the vegetation to fluctuate.

Figure 32: Water lost via evapotranspiration as obtained by the 2 box model and the measurements

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 5.3.2. Rising discrepancy with rising inflow An additional approach to explaining discrepancies can be attempted by looking at the discharge into the lake. The model error is obviously directly related to the discharge from the Kaidu river and the northern inflows. The model underestimates (i.e. the error is positive) when the discharge increases and overestimates (i.e. the error is negative) when the discharge decreases. This is partly due to the subsequent increase in area which may not be accounted for to full extent by the relationship between lake level and area available. Additionally, with an abrupt increase, the rising water saturates dry land earlier (it increases the ground water table around the lake) and thus looses water that is not accounted for in the model. With a decrease, this additional water is released from the groundwater until the groundwater table is back to level. This assumption is backed by the fact, that there is no observable correlation between lake area and model error. This is because the error does not increase for an absolute level of inflow or area, but rather when the fluctuation of discharge from one year to the next is especially big. Li [16] calculates seepage values of ≈ 1.5 m3 /s from the lake to the Yanqi Basin which amounts to ≈ 108 m3 /a if considering that the Yanqi Basin only covers half the lake shore. The error of the model reaches a maximum of 9.05 108 m3 in extreme years.

Figure 33: The error of the model is subject to the discharge into the lake.

5.4. Water Loss In fig. 34 the relative amount of water lost through evapotranspiration and volume change over the years is presented.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 34: Water Loss as a fraction of the total inflow.

5.4.1. Evapotranspiration Loss Looking at evapotranspiration as a loss in the water balance it is clear that it is foremost dependent on the lake area and less so on the climatic parameters, the actual evaporation rate (see fig. 35). Since the lake area is directly related to the inflow from Kaidu River and the northern rivers, the loss of Evapotranspiration, which accounts to 30% - 80% of the total inflow in some years, can be estimated. A different scenario can now be examined. Assuming the dam would after all be a separation to the lake preventing any flow from the big to the small part, the lake level would be subject only to the inflow from the Kaidu river. Since with lake area the evapotranspiration changes, water can this way either be saved or lost additionally. Looking at the time period 1983-2002 for the small lake (see fig. 36), it would have resulted in a water saving of additional 0.025 108 m3 /a which could have been released to downstream areas. Adversely, the big lake would have gained area (see fig. 37) and thus lost about 0.028 108 m3 /a additionally which leaves the balance with neither a loss nor a benefit.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 35: Evapotranspiration is mainly dependent on Lake area.

Figure 36: With the dam closed, the small lake’s area would have decreased.

Figure 37: With the dam closed, the big lake’s area would have increased.

It is finally possible to make a statement about the impact of water saving measures on downstream areas with the lake as an aggregator. A straightforward assumption would be, that an additional discharge from the Yanqi Basin (resulting from increased water saving measures) would increase the discharge into the Green Corridor area. The counter argument runs, that an additional discharge results in an increased lake area and hence an increased evapotranspiration from the lake. According to this argument, water saving methods in the upstream areas do not necessarily need to be a benefit for the agricultural areas in the Green Corridor. Jakob Steiner 34

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model A closer look at the relationship between the total inflow to the lake and Evapotranspiration in the years after the construction of the dam, gives a clear linear function described by equation 5 and presented in fig. 38. The fact that water loss for the time before the construction of the dam is so much higher is due to climatic reasons and a trend in evapotranspiration developments. While the mean of evapotranspiration over the lake between 1958 - 1982 was 1155 mm/a, it decreased to an average 1065 mm/a between 1983 2002. Obviously the relation to the inflow stayed the same, relatively speaking.

Ql = 0.083Qy + 11

(5)

where Ql is the water lost via Evapotranspiration [108 m3 ] and Qy the water discharged from the Yanqi Basin [108 m3 ]. The Correlation Coefficient R=0.84.

Figure 38: Water lost via Evapotranspiration compared to inflow from the Yanqi Basin.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 39: A time lag of at least one year can be observed between the inflow from the Yanqi Basin and the reaction of the lake area.

To explain the outliers an additional feature of the inflow-area relationship needs to be explained. While the inflow of one year influences the lake area of the same year, it equally has an influence on the area of the lake for the following 3 years. Looking at the times series of all years (1958-2002), a consistent maximum correlation is suggested for the second year rather than the same year, meaning there is a time lag of one year between information input and output. Only after 3 years the correlation between inflows and lake area decreases from a rather stable R=0.76 to lower values (see fig.39). If the inflow from the Yanqi Basin is stable, then suddenly drops in one year only to return to the previous amount, this single year with below average inflow does not have an observable influence on the lake area. All outliers from fig. 38 are from such years. The same investigation is done for the relationship between the inflow from the Yanqi basin and the discharge to the Konque River, which equally results in a linear relationship (see fig. 40 and equation 6).

Qk = 0.16Qy + 7.2

(6)

where Qk is the water discharged into the Konque river [108 m3 ] and Qy the water discharged from the Yanqi Basin [108 m3 ]. The Correlation Coefficient R=0.72. Here a change of outflow can be observed, not only in absolute numbers but also relatively speaking, the linear relationship has a steeper slope for the time before the construction of the dam. Obviously the outflow features changed since the pumping station is controlling about 62% of the total outflow (see fig. 26).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 40: Water discharged to the Konque River compared to inflow from the Yanqi Basin.

The outliers in fig. 40 are from the years 2000 - 2002 where outflows suddenly increased due to ecological discharges performed for the downstream areas. According to Dr. Yanq Peng-nian, these ecological releases were carried out in 6 steps between 2000 and 2004 ([priv. comm.]). Looking at both equations gives a means to judge the influence of an increased discharge from the Yanqi Basin. Generally more water is lost via Evapotranspiration than reaches Konque river over the lake, as the comparison of the y-intercepts (11>7.2) suggests. But while for every m3 water that is discharged additionally from the Yanqi Basin, 0.16 additional m3 reach the Konque river, only 0.08 additional m3 are lost via Evapotranspiration. This scenario assumes a rather natural development of the lake area since discharges from the pumping station were not significantly higher than it’s natural outflow would otherwise have been. With ecological releases from 2000 onwards it was not a natural scenario anymore. Nevertheless, since it was obviously possible to release a lot more than the natural additional discharge in the years were ecological releases were performed, without causing a significant impact on the lake area and thus the ecosystem (see fig. 41), it can be argued that more could be discharged to the downstream, while keeping the lake level stable. It is interesting to note, that here the time lag is also about one year, the lake area reacts later to increased discharge. While the rest of the additional m3 , ≈ 0.76m3 would otherwise be stored in the lake and subsequently be subject to an increased evapotranspiration over an increased area, it could be released directly into the downstream.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 41: The steep increase in pumping for ecological releases dir not affect the lake area gravely.

The results were also computed as a fraction of the inflow to give a means of relative comparison. Fig. 42 and 43 portray how much of the actual inflow in one year was actually lost via Evapotranspiration or discharged to Konque River. The relations are described by equations 7 and 8.

pl = −0.37 ln(Qy ) + 1.738 where pl is the fraction of discharge from the Yanqi Basin (Qy ) lost to the atmosphere. R2 =0.93.

(7)

pk = −0.31 ln(Qy ) + 1.477

(8)

where pk is the fraction of discharge from the Yanqi Basin (Qy ) discharged to the Konque river. R2 =0.79.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 42: Between 80% and 30% of the total inflow are lost to the atmosphere.

Figure 43: Between 60% and 25% of the total inflow are discharged into the Konque River.

5.4.2. Volume Change Although fig. 26 suggests that the annual change in lake volume does not play a big role, it did account for up to 40% contribution to the total inflow in the years where the lake height was brought to a minimum (1986-1987). In these years, water, which in previous years was part of the water body, was released into the downstream and because of extensive use of irrigation water in the Yanqi Basin, this amount was not replenished. After this extreme situation, which caused damage to the ecosystem since shore lands were increasingly lying dry and reed belts destroyed, the lake height was increased again. Since then, the volume change was mostly positive and thus contributed to an additional "loss" of inflow water (up to 20%/a), and as shown in the sections above has lead to an increase in evapotranspiration, which was at a low between 1977 and 1987.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model 6. Conclusions The irrigated agricultural area up - and downstream of the Bostan Lake has increased rapidly in recent decades. This has lead to a increased water shortage and means to save water by decreasing losses are needed. While the increase of water use efficiency in irrigation itself, by changing from flush to drip irrigation or improving the distribution channels’ lining is playing an important role in the search for sustainable solutions (see Li [16] for the area and Khan et al. [15] for an overview of water use efficiency improvement approaches) this paper looked at some aspects of the lake’s role in the water cycle by modeling its water balance. Apart from the cultivation of reed which is only possible with the availability of a certain water table, the lake does not contribute to the agricultural effort, rather, via evapotranspiration over its vast open water surface, it contributes to the water losses in the water cycle. Radically speaking, only considering agricultural aspects and ignoring needs of reed farmers and fishers, the effacing of the lake would be the most effective way of saving water - between 30% and 80% of the annual inflow from the Kaidu river are lost to the atmosphere each year. Since this is ecologically and economically (fisheries, paper pulp production, tourism) not an option, a lake regulation that keeps both aspects in mind - agricultural efficiency and ecological aspects will be looked for in future. From the results presented above it is obvious that the lake, although separated by the dam, is hydrologically speaking still one lake. Not only do 10% of the whole water discharged from Kaidu river into the lake flow from the big to the small lake, but this water flow through the dam is also the biggest influence on the water balance of the small lake as it shows a much higher correlation with its outflow than does its natural inflow. Evapotranspiration estimation via an adapted Penman-Monteith approach showed excellent results in comparison to available measurements, when considering average values over decades. Since radiation or cloud cover measurements for Bostan lake were not available, the estimates are not valuable at an annual resolution. If cloud fraction data become available in future, a conclusive statement about validity of the Penman-Monteith approach for the Bostan Lake can be attempted. It could be shown, that the measurements in combination with available pan coefficients are accurate for the open water surface when compared to evapotranspiration obtained through the water balance. An empirical approach to determine the pan coefficient from meteorological parameters did not prove more accurate than the few data available for the field obtained from Zhong [29] and monthly variations were not of considerable importance. Nevertheless, a future investigation of this parameter will be interesting when more measurements from close to the lake become available and other empirical approaches (as presented in Ghundekar et al. [12]) may prove more helpful. To investigate the effects of changes in pumping or inflow, the values of evapotranspiration obtained through the water balance were used as the evapotranspiration models suggest that these values are within a very reasonable range and no major other unaccounted losses were overlooked. Although a complete sealing of the dam (and thus a creation of two lakes) would save water otherwise lost to the atmosphere in some years, looking at the average over the years 1983-2002 (-0.0029 108 m3 ) this move would be of no relevance. Additionally it would decrease the small lake area to a stable 290 km2 , which would result in a decrease in reed cover - a situation reed farmers would hardly be happy with. To improve the model, observations of reed coverage for more years and an investigation into actual reed evapotranspiration for Bostan lake would prove helpful. Although the values suggested by Zhong [29] do sound reasonable compared to other research and also if used as an average value for many years in this model, inter-annual variations can not be described. Another unaccounted aspect is the replenishment of the groundwater table while the lake table increases and its reverse response when the lake level decreases. This may roughly account for more than 10% of the Jakob Steiner 40

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model over- or respective underestimations. From the relationship between discharge of the Kaidu river and the northern inflows and the outputs into the lake, it is obvious that while an increased amount of water is lost with an increase of inflow (8% of the additional inflow are lost through the increased evapotranspiration) and generally more water is lost over the current water table than is discharged to the downstream areas, also the discharge to the Kongque River increases (16% of the additional inflow are discharged). Since Bostan lake is a regulated reservoir, the remaining 76%, which are used to increase the lake volume, can additionally be released if the discharge stays high in subsequent years. Since 2000, a steep increase in lake discharges has taken place when the pumping was increased. And while the pumping itself has not affected the lake area (it rose continually until 2002), the ecological release in 2003, which increased by a factor of 2.72 compared to 2002, showed extreme effects on the lake - the water level dropped by 2 m. Since the releases were only started in 2002 and the available data sets for in- and outflows only extend to 2002, long term results can hardly be computed. But, taking the model inaccuracy into account, a conservative estimate would be, that 40% of an additional inflow from the downstream can be discharged into the Kongque river.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 44: The albedo of a water surface as obtained through the Fresnel equation.

7. Appendix 7.1. Parametrization of Penman-Monteith The different parameters used for Penman-Monteith can either be derived directly from the data available, computed via global data or derived with empirical formulae. Since there are no radiation or sunshine measurements available, radiation was derived from global data and the geodetic data of Bostan lake. The function of the wind speed was derived from an empirical formula and measurements. The calculating approach is partially following McJannet et al. [18]. The net Radiation consists of the net shortwave Radiation Rs and the net longwave Radiation Rl :

Rn = Rs + Rl

(9)

The net incoming shortwave radiation is the incoming shortwave radiation (originating from the sun) minus the reflected shortwave radiation which is determined by the broadband reflectance, or albedo (see equation 10. The albedo of the water surface can be determined by the Fresnel equation (see for example Angstrom [2]). It takes into account the inclination angle of the sun rays which differs with the season. Thus an albedo value is obtained for each month (see fig. 44). Compared to the albedo of grass (ca. 0.23) or snow (up to 0.95) this is a very small reflectivity.

Rs = Ri (1 − α)

(10)

where Ri is the measured incoming shortwave radiation [M J m−2 d−1 ] and α the dimensionless albedo coefficient. Jakob Steiner 42

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 45: The average obtained cloud fraction for each month with the max. and min. expected deviations.

The incoming shortwave radiation was determined according to Allen et al. [1]. n )Ra N

Ri = (0.25 + 0.5

(11)

n where Ra is the extraterrestrial radiation (see equation 13). N denotes the actual versus the theoretical sunshine hours. Since the earlier is not available, this factor was obtained via the cloud factor. NASA provides a JAVA Applet that makes it very easy to determine the cloud factor for a certain region (http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/ICE.html) from images obtained by MODIS. The complete dataset can be downloaded from ftp://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/pub/data/D2Tars/. An analysis of cloud fraction data over the area was not available and not attempted for this paper. Rather an average cloud fraction value was n chosen for each month and interannual variation determined in other studies considered. N can thus be derived

n = 1 − fc N

(12)

where fc is the cloud fraction obtained from MODIS imagery. A study for a different geographical area finds an average interannual cloud fraction variability of 20% for each month (Ghate et al. [11]), a study that looks at the Tibetan plateau with similar cloud fraction values and distribution as Xinjiang does not give absolute values but graphs similar values (Jin [14]). The calculations were does carried out with average cloud fraction and two time series with +20% and -20% cloud cover respectively (see fig. 45).

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model The extraterrestrial radiation is obtained from Ra = 24 ∗ 60 0.082dr (ωsin(φ)sin(δ) + cos(φ)cos(δ)sin(ω)) π (13)

The sunset hour angle, ω , is calculated from π −tan(φ)tan(δ) ) − arctan( 2 X 0.5

ω= The X-factor, X , is calculated from:

(14)

X = 1 − (tan(φ))2 (tan(δ))2 The solar declination, δ , is calculated using the day of the year, D , as follows 2π D − 1.39) 365

(15)

δ = 0.409sin(

(16)

The inverse relative distance Earth-Sun, dr , is calculated using 2π D) 365

dr = 1 + 0.033cos(

(17)

There is a straightforward approach to determine the longwave radiation from Allen et al. [1]. It does make use of the daily Tmax and Tmin which is not available from the NOAA measurements. To use the mean daily temperature is not an alternative, since there is no knowledge of how temperature is changing during 24 h in the region and the mean and the median may be quite different. A very long solution without using Tmax and Tmin is proposed by McJannet et al. [18]. Since the longwave radiation in comparison to the shortwave radiation is negligible especially in a study that addresses the water balance of a lake with such a volume, it was assumed irrelevant. As Eichinger et al. [10] argue, the use of models that rely on net radiation for large water bodies is problematic. Since the sun’s energy penetrates the upper layer of the water body and is stored throughout the water column, it itself becomes the source of energy that drives evaporation and not just the radiation originating from the sun. The temperature of the water does not change significantly during the day, because of its large heat storage capacity [1.006 106 J/m3 ], and thus the amount of energy is nearly constant day and night. For the wind function Sweers [24] proposes an equation that takes the lake area into account (equation 18): 5 f (u) = ( )0.05 (3.8 + 1.57u10 ) A

(18)

where A is the lake’s area [km2 ] and was for that matter assumed constant at 1000 [km2 ] and u10 is the wind speed at 10 m which had to be adjusted from the measurement which was taken at 2 m via a wind speed-height relationship from Allen et al. [1]. Jakob Steiner 44

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model G, the ground heat flux, was neglected, since it was shown in other studies, that the heat flux from the water surface oscillates between ca. 100 - 200 W/m2 and -100 - -200 W/m2 during day- and nighttime respectively (see Bian et al. [4] and Burba et al. [6]) and thus eventually cancels itself out.

7.2. Determination of the Pan Coefficient Ghundekar et al. [12] give a good overview over different methods to calculate Kpan . But they also remark, that all equations require testing before applied in a different climatic surrounding than the one they were derived for. Allen et al. [1] give tables that provide Kpan factors for average meteorological parameters. With data from the station in Korla, this would lead to Kpan ≈ 0.75 which is considerably above the average from Zhong [29] (K1 *K2 *K3 ≈ 0.53). This may explain, why for the years where measurements are available, the approach is consistently overestimating. Since relative humidity was not measured at the station in Korla (but had to be derived via the water vapor) and is not at all available for a location close to the lake and also the fetch can not be determined readily, the approach by Perreira [21] is left as an option and was used to compare with the data obtained by Zhong [29]. Perreira [21] proposes a relatively simple equation (see equation 19) that just needs daily wind speeds from a nearby weather station. These measurements were available from Korla City. δ+γ δ + γ(1 + 0.33u2 )

Kpan = 0.85

(19)

where all parameters are as presented for the Penman-Monteith approach. In fig. 46 the Kpan is compared to K1 *K2 *K3 as obtained by Zhong [29], where the values for Perreira [21] are averaged over the years 1985-2002. The values for Zhong [29] are only available for one year. Although the shape of the curve is obviously very different for both, it’s the absolute difference that makes the difference for the Evapotranspiration model in the end (see fig. 47). Using the empirical approach from Perreira [21] does not give better results in terms of correlation to the Evapotranspiration obtained via the water balance model. On the average it overestimates Evapotranspiration, while using just the few data from Zhong [29] gives a very good average match. From the results it is obvious that the monthly variation of the pan coefficient is not of considerable importance for a water balance. Nevertheless, comparing the two approaches strongly suggests, that the evaporation from the open water surface was modeled well in the model and it is the evapotranspiration from the reed that is subject to grave over or underestimations.

7.3. Determination of Evapotranspiration from Reed Sanchez et al. [22] suggest a simple approach to estimating transpiration from reed for a comparable climatic surrounding. All meteorological data would be available at least from the station in Korla, although relative humidity measurements would be helpful for Bohu county since they may be starkly different from the drier Korla area. A research overview by Ondok et al. [19] shows, that the measurements suggested by Zhong [29] are in the range of results observed in other similar locations. In a detailed study, which looks at the different growth stages as well, (see Burba et al. [7]) an average Evapotranspiration rate of ≈ 1400 mm is found which is below the value used for this paper (1832 mm). It is essentially the change in reed cover Jakob Steiner 45

Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model

Figure 46: The Pan coefficient (Kpan ) according to Perreira [21] and Zhong [29].

Figure 47: Using the Pan coefficient according to Perreira [21] does not improve results.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model over the small lake’s area that is responsible for unaccounted over- or underestimates in this model. An investigation of the development, especially for the years since 1983, would give an idea how heterogeneous the reed cover was over the years. Like Zhong [29], Hua et al. [13] is suggesting 3 - 4 different reed types for the area and describes their physical features. They investigate the cover with remote sensing and suggest relative covers, but do not give further details on transpiring features of the different reed types.

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Determining the Water Balance of Bostan Lake with a Two Box Model References 8. Literature
[1] Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D. and Smith, M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration. Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56. [2] Angstroem, A., 1925. The Albedo of Various Surfaces of Ground. Geografiska Annaler, Vol. 7, (1925), pp. 323-342 [3] Daneshkar Arasteh, P., M. Tajrishy, 2008. Calibrating Priestley-Taylor model to estimate open water evaporation under regional advection using volume balance method-case study: Chahnimeh Reservoir, Iran. J. Applied Sci., 8: 4097-4104. [4] Bian L., Gao Z., Lu L., Zhang Y., Roger C., Zhang X.D. 2003. Observational estimation of heat budgets on drifting ice and open water over the Arctic Ocean, Science in China (Series D) [5] Brunner, P. 2005. Water and salt management in the Yanqi Basin, China. PhD Thesis, ETH (2005). [6] Burba, G. G., Verma, S. B., Kim, J., 2004. Energy Fluxes of an Open Water Area in a mid-Latitude Prairie Wetland, Boundary Layer Meteorology [7] Burba, G. G., Verma, S. B., Kim, J., 1998. Energy Fluxes of Phragmites australis in a Prairie Wetland, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology [8] CIESIN Report. 6-3C Conservation of water environment and ecology of the Bosteng Lake in Xinjiang, China http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/china/policy/acca21/216-3c.html [9] Dong, X., Jiang, T., Jiang, H. 2001, Study on the pattern of water resources utilization and environmental conservation of Yanqi basin. In Development, Planning and Management of Surface and Groundwater Resources (ed. G. Li), IAHR congress proceedings, vol. A, pp. 333 - 340. Beijing, China: Tsinghua University Press. [10] Eichinger,W.E. , Nichols, J. , Prueger, J.H., Hipps, L.E. , Neale, C.M.U., Cooper, D.I., and Bawazir, A. S., 2003. Lake Evaporation Estimation in arid Environments. IIHR Report No. 430 [11] Ghate, V. P., Albrecht, B. A., Fairall, C. W., Weller, R. A., 2005. Climatology of Surface Meteorology, Surface Fluxes, Cloud Fraction and Radiative Forcing Over South-East Pacific from Buoy Observations. Division of Meteorology and Oceanography, University of Miami. [12] Gundekar, H. G., Khodke, U. M., Sarkar, S., Rai, R. K., 2007. Evaluation of pan coefficient for reference crop evapotranspiration for semi-arid region. Irrig Sci (2008) 26:169Ð175 [13] Hua, R., Li, Y., 1992. Application of remote sensing technique to the investigation on reed resources of Bosten Lake. Chinese Geographical Science, Volume 2, Number 3, pp.266-276, 1992 [14] Jin, M., 2006. MODIS observed seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric conditions associated with hydrological cycle over Tibetan Plateau. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L19707 [15] Khan S., Akbar S., Rana T., Abbas A., Robinson D., Dassanayke D., Hirsi I., Blackwell J., Xevi E., Carmichael A., 2004 Hydrologic Economic Ranking of Water Saving Options - Murrumbidgee Valley. Report to Pratt Water - Water Efficiency Feasibility Project. [16] Li, H. 2009. Water resources management for sustainable development in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China. PhD Thesis, ETH (2009) [17] Linacre, E.T. 1994, Estimating U.S. Class-A pan evaporation from few climate data., Water International 19, 5 - 14 [18] McJannet, D.L., Webster, I.T., Stenson, M.P., Sherman, B.S., 2008. Estimating open water evaporation for the MurrayDarling Basin A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project [19] Ondok, J.P., Priban, K., Kvet, J., 1990. Evapotraspiration in littoral vegetation. UNEP/ILEC Guidelines of Lake Management series, Vol.2, Chapter 2

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[20] Penman, H. L., 1948. Natural Evaporation from Open Water, Bare Soil and Grass Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 1948 193, 120-145 [21] Pereira A.R., Villanova N., Pereira A.S., Barbieri V.A., 1995 A model for the class-A pan coefficient. Agric Water Manage 76:75 - 82 [22] Sanchez-Carrillo, S., Angeler, D.G., 2001 A simple method for estimating water loss by transpiration in wetlands. Hydrological Sciences - Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 46(4) August [23] Sumner, D. M., Jacobs, J. M., 2004. Utility of Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, reference evapotranspiration, and pan evaporation methods to estimate pasture evapotranspiration. Journal of Hydrology 308 (2005) 81 - 104 [24] Sweers, H. E., 1976. A nomogram to estimate the heat-exchange coefficient at the air-water interface as a function of wind speed and temperature; a critical survey of some literature Journal of Hydrology, Volume 30, Issue 4, August 1976, Pages 375-401 [25] Wuenneman, B., Mischke, S., Chen, F., 2005. A Holocene sedimentary record from Bosten Lake, China Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 234 (2006) 223- 238 [26] Xi, C., Jinglu, W., Qi, H. 2008, Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Bosten Lake Basin Using an Artificial Neural Network Model, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, March 2008 [27] Zhang, G., Yan, X., Su, M., 1990. Eutrophication of lakes in Mongolia-Xinjiang. Lake Bosten in Xinjiang. Eutrophication of Lakes in China. The Fourth Int. Conf. on the Conservation and Management of lakes, Hangzhou 90, pp. 308 - 329. [28] Zhang, G., Xu, N., Mecuthon, S., Yang, Q., Li, Y., Zhou, W., 1995. Lake Bosten in Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang. In: Jin, X. Lakes in China: Research of Their Environment vol. I. , pp. 278 - 319. [29] Zhong, X. 1988, Primary Evaluation of Water Surface Evaporation in Bosten Lake, Arid Land Geography Vol.11, No. 4. [30] Zhuang, Z., Ding, L., Li, H., 1988, China’s Pulp and Paper Industry: A Review. School of Economics, Georgia Institute of Technology

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