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Technical Research | February 13, 2012

Daily Technical Report Sensex (17749) / NIFTY (5382)
On Friday, once again our indices traded in a range of 17582 – 18000 / 5322 – 5435 throughout the day. However, we witnessed some selling pressure as soon as indices drifted below 17800 / 5400 mark and finally closed in the negative territory. On the sectoral front, most of the sectors remained under pressure, whereas Metal counters ended with a nominal gain. The advance to decline ratio was marginally in favor of declining counters. (A=1435 D=1506) (Source –www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation:
• On the Weekly chart, indices are hovering around the “Horizontal Resistance Line” placed at 17908 / 5400 level. • • The Weekly chart depicts a “Doji” formation. The 200-day SMA and 20-day EMA are placed at 17235 / 5178 and 17160 / 5185, respectively. • The “RSI-Smoothened” oscillator on the daily chart is placed in extreme overbought territory.
Source: Falcon

Trading strategy:
Broadly speaking, last week markets traded in a narrow range of 17579 – 17890 / 5322 – 5428, whereas, few of the individual stocks have outperformed indices. Markets stuck in a range mainly due to extreme overbought condition of momentum oscillators. We are now observing that markets are hovering near the “Horizontal Resistance Line” placed at 17908 / 5400 level (Refer Exhibit 1). Also, the current weekly candle is known as “Doji” pattern, which indicates lack of confidence and uncertainty among market participants. The said pattern has a minor bearish implication and requires confirmation. The negative outlook will be confirmed only if indices sustain below the low of 17579 / 5322. In this case, we may witness a corrective move up to 17200 – 17000 / 5250 – 5185 levels, which also coincides with the support zone of 200-Day EMA and 20-day EMA.

Actionable points:
View Expected targets Resistance level Negative Below 5322 5250 – 5185 5428

Conversely, the pattern will be negated on the violation of the high of “Doji”, which are 17890 / 5428. In this scenario, indices may move higher to test the next resistance level of 18440 – 18932 / 5552 – 5702. We advise traders to stay light on positions and trade with strict stop losses.

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Technical Research | February 13, 2012

Bank Nifty Outlook - (10443)
On Friday, Bank Nifty opened on a flat note and traded with extreme volatility throughout the session to close marginally below the initial opening level. We are now witnessing a “Bearish Harami” candle stick pattern on the daily chart which is a reversal pattern but requires a confirmation. We reiterate our view, that the momentum oscillators are placed in an extreme overbought condition and a possibility of correction cannot be ruled out. Therefore, if the index manages to sustain below Friday’s low of 10344 then it is likely to drift towards 10183 – 10150 levels. On the upside, 10528 – 10555 levels are likely to act as resistance in coming trading session. The said pattern will be negated only if Bank Nifty manages to close above 10555. Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Expected Target Resistance levels Negative Below 10344 10183 – 10150 10528 – 10555
Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | February 13, 2012

Positive Bias:
Expected Target 109

Stock Name Dabur

CMP 103

5 Day EMA 99.9

20 Day EMA 97.7

Remarks View will change below 97

Negative Bias:
Expected Target 104

Stock Name Aurobindo pharma

CMP 110.65

5 Day EMA 115.3

20 Day EMA 110.3

Remarks View will change above 118.4

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Technical Research | February 13, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 17,492 5,297 10,236 1,283 165 1,079 1,682 342 255 568 360 343 324 219 1,597 376 458 666 507 1,912 147 380 906 125 2,730 201 583 73 531 1,316 668 1,210 177 274 981 104 430 90 826 550 99 106 2,118 218 770 123 534 29 252 106 416 1,202 438 S1 17,621 5,339 10,340 1,315 169 1,099 1,709 346 258 583 367 346 328 225 1,610 381 463 680 512 1,941 150 384 918 129 2,760 202 593 75 539 1,333 680 1,227 179 278 995 106 436 92 835 561 102 109 2,145 227 780 126 538 30 255 109 446 1,218 443 PIVOT 17,755 5,383 10,447 1,368 174 1,121 1,729 352 261 606 378 350 331 230 1,627 386 467 690 519 1,983 155 389 929 135 2,781 204 604 77 549 1,354 696 1,251 180 283 1,009 108 447 94 847 577 105 112 2,177 234 790 129 542 31 258 112 462 1,228 447 R1 17,883 5,426 10,550 1,400 177 1,141 1,756 356 264 621 384 353 335 236 1,640 391 472 704 524 2,012 158 393 941 140 2,811 205 615 79 557 1,372 708 1,268 182 287 1,022 109 453 96 856 589 109 116 2,204 243 801 132 545 32 261 114 491 1,244 453 R2 18,018 5,470 10,658 1,454 182 1,163 1,776 361 267 643 395 357 339 240 1,657 397 476 714 531 2,053 162 399 951 145 2,832 206 625 82 567 1,393 724 1,291 183 293 1,037 111 464 99 868 605 112 118 2,236 251 811 135 549 34 265 117 508 1,254 456

Technical Research Team
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Technical Research |Technical13, 2012 February Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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