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Dr David Brown April 28, 2010
Innovative Decisions, Inc. 1945 Old Gallows Road Suite 207 Vienna, VA 22182 www.innovativedecisions.com Phone:(703) 854-1130
• • • • • • • ExtendSim Overview Continuous and Discrete Models Model Optimization Custom Model Blocks Animation Building Animation Objects Integration with Bayesian Networks.
What is ExtendSim?
• GUI based simulation package • Continuous, discrete event, discrete rate, and agent-based modeling is supported • Robust set of modeling and data analysis components. Allows for development of custom components. • Links to external data sources and also includes built-in databases • Supports animation and advanced graphic for enhanced presentation
Internal Block Settings
Double click to open block and set internal options
distribution. mining • Military Operations – Troop readiness. logistics • Industrial Operations – Construction. military logistics • Process Improvement – Business operations .Typical Applications • Manufacturing – Assembly lines. operational efficiency. shipping • Facilities – Customer flow.
0001 0.00015 Probability Baseline Rule-based Bayesian Network 0.Output • Built-in graphing and report generation • Export data to spreadsheets or databases 0.0002 0.00025 0.00005 0 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 32000 34000 Weekly Net Revenue ($) .
Hierarchical Blocks 1 Assembly Start BinsIn Bins In Type Bin In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Assembly Station Sta# 2 Station # Sta# 3 Assembly Station Station # Sta# 4 Assembly Station Station # Sta# 5 Assembly Station Station # Sta# Assembly Station Station # Rand 1 2 3 6 Station # Sta# Assembly Station 7 Station # Sta# 8 Assembly Station Station # Sta# 9 Assembly Station Station # Sta# 10 Assembly Station Station # Sta# Assembly Station BinsOut Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out Bins In Bins Out a BinsIn ? b BinTy pe Get A T U D F b a BinsOut select D Bin Load Delay L W Conv ey or Queue Eqn A Receiv e R C T # Stations B N a>b Rand Y 1 Constant Receiv e 1 2 3 Delay Time R C T Load Delay Mean 3 Constant Receiv e R C T Load Delay Dev StationIn .
Activity-Based Costing .
Accounts.Types of Models • Continuous Models – Values are always present – Examples: Temperature in a room. Cars in a parking lot. Files in an inbox • Many models contain elements of each – Example: Deposit to a savings account . Fuel in your car • Discrete Models – Things happen at specific times – Examples: People enter a building.
Inputs and Outputs Continuous Block Outputs must be connected to Inputs y =f (x) Discrete Input D F Discrete Block Discrete Output Continuous Output Continuous Input Continuous Output Continuous Input Drag Down Tabs D C F U L P NB SD SH PT BT DT AS .
Continuous Models 1.25 ### 100 ### Hare Density Ly nx Birth Rate Ecosy stem Area Value Ly nx Births want get Ly nx Population Lynx Pop Ly nx Mortality Lynx Pop Ly nx Deaths If only the value blocks are used.25 ### Hare Births get Hare Population Hare Pop Buttons Lynx Pop Hare Birth Rate Lynx Pop Hare Pop Hares Killed 0. there are no special requirements .
The executive block must be to the left of all other blocks. .Discrete Models T= 60 4000 C CO Recy cle 100 800 0 0 % Q Valv e 2 ID C CO I Indicator R Q Valv e 3 0 12000 Executive Block C CO Source R Q Valv e 1 C CO I Indicator R 1 2 C Sink CO Reception Processing y =f (x) Stage y =f (x) Stage Stage y =f (x) Indicator 1 B N 1 A A=2 Y Indicator 1 B N demand 0 A A=0 Y Indicator 2 B N demand 0 0 A A=0 Y demand start Start F L L Gate 1 Stage 1 AD L Gate 2 Stage 2 AD D Start L1 L2 L3 L4 L1 max con L2 Stage 3 L3 Gate 3 Stage 4 AD L4 Stage Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: Stage 4: Open Valve 1 and release flow into Reception Open Valve 2 and release flow into Processing Process the flow Open Valve 3 and release flow into Sink An executive block must be used if any discrete blocks are used in a model.
Example Problem • Work station for evaluation of incoming paperwork – 1000 forms as input • 100 per hour enter system – Start with 3 workers – One worker can review one form at a time – Variable time to complete review • Mean 3 • Std Dev 1 .
Work Flow Functions Incoming Files 1 file 1000 100 per hour Inbox 1 file File Review Mean 3 Std Dev 1 mins 1 worker 3 1 worker Completed Files Workers .
Work Flow Model Incoming Files 1000 100 per hour Workers 3 1 worker Inbox 1 file File Review Mean 3 Std Dev 1 mins 1 worker Completed Files 1 file 24 Q R L 2 0 0 D F i 13 13 L 0 TR U Run ExtendSim .
Marine Corps Fuel and Water Logistics • Modeled availability of complex fuel and water systems based on repair and transport of components .
procurement. transport. Output was system availability data for multiple battalions with different system use profiles. .Marine Corps Fuel and Water Logistics Included use. and use-life guidelines for multiple system components with different attributes. repair.
and debarkation modeling. movement.Navy Ship and Aircraft Operations Ship and aircraft loading. .
.Naval Ship Design Model movement of troops and vehicles within a new ship design to see how long it takes to outfit and deploy a landing force with their vehicles.
Model Optimization • Extend can be used to optimize problems • Mathematical solutions require equal numbers of variables and equations to solve – These are not always available • Extend uses genetic algorithms to optimize multiple variables in one equation .
Optimization Problem • An unprocessed file results in an average loss of $300 • A processed file results in a gain of $1000 • A worker costs $3000 per 600 time units • What is the optimal number of people to assign to this job? .
Work Flow Optimization Q R L Inbox 0 0 D F i 585 r L Completed TR U Workers Run ExtendSim .
Set Optimization .
99 # F F In progress Completed 23933 In progress # E Full Non-emergency Calls E Completed 28699 In progress L # L Completed 31143 Full .Complex Optimization Fire Full FireCalls Dispatch Operations Simulation Dispatchers F # FEL In progress Completed 40 E L Processing Input Data F # FE In progress Completed 0 Performance Stats E EMS Full # of processors # FL F L In progress Completed 0 EMS Calls Call Processor(s) # E L EL In progress Completed 0 Pct of Calls < 15 secs Full Target 0.95 LE Calls Pct of calls < 40 secs Target 0.
Dispatch Optimization .
Modified Blocks The blocks that come with ExtendSim can be modified to Meet unique customer needs a b c a b c demand a b c a b c demand a b c Standard Block Modified Block One IDI customer needed a custom batching block that could create custom orders instead of batching the same items every time .
Other Custom Blocks a b c demand a b c demand a b c use # use # I u change F L W D L W F u change Buffer with variable input Variable unbatch Bin with variable starting items use # u use # u # Gate # Gate sensor i change change sensor Labor pool with variable start laborers Gate with variable number Of items within the gate area .
.Animation Advanced 3D visualization is supported.
Example Animation Run ExtendSim .
0 F14 40.3 s500to700Kts 41.0 Neutral 25.3 Kinematics GT700kts 40.0 CommRadar1 11.0 Comms True 33.9 False 66.60 NoReply 94.75 NoRadar 18.2 Mig29Radar 21.40 23.1 16.3 9.5 50.1 Position AirRoute 20.0 Airbus 10.Integrating Netica Models with ExtendSim Hostile Neutral Friendly None Intel 18.8 F14 Mig29 Boeing Airbus Other None RSM 30.0 EW F14Radar 27.5 Friendly 32.7 CommRadar2 13.8 24.5 Classification Mig29 30.0 Missile 5.5 Neither 68.5 MissileRadar 7.4 15.25 5.3 .4 Identity Hostile 42.00 Boeing 15.25 7.5 LT500kts 18.2 ReturnToForce 11.0 IFF ValidReply 5.
Netica Models • Netica is software package for the creation of Bayesian Networks and influence diagrams by Norsys Software Corp • Comes in a graphical user interface version and a set of Application Programmer Interface (API) functions .
6 absent 56.0 Lung Cancer present 5.00 no visit 99.0 Distributed by Norsys Software Corp. Chest Clinic Contributing Factors Diseases Symptoms Dyspnea present 43.Sample Network Visit To Asia visit 1.50 absent 94.0 absent 55.5 Bronchitis present 45.0 non smoker 50.04 absent 99.0 Tuberculosis present 1.5 XRay Result abnormal 11.0 normal 89.4 .48 false 93.0 Smoking smoker 50.0 Tuberculosis or Cancer true 6.
3 Smoking smoker 100 non smoker 0 Lung Cancer present 64.22 no visit 98.Example Inference Visit To Asia visit 1.4 Bronchitis present 60.0 Tuberculosis or Cancer true 70.0 absent 40.8 Tuberculosis present 6.4 XRay Result abnormal 100 normal 0 Distributed by Norsys Software Corp.6 absent 35. Chest Clinic Contributing Factors Diseases Symptoms Dyspnea present 73.2 absent 26.6 false 29.8 Adding known information that the person is a smoker and that their chest XRay was abnormal cause the probability of cancer to jump from 5% to 65% .72 absent 93.
Weather no rain 70.0000 leave at home 70.5 cloudy 21.5 rainy 25.Influence Diagrams Umbrella Distributed by Norsys Software Corp.0 Forecast sunny 53.0 rain 30.0 Decide Umbrella take it 35.0000 Satisfaction A n Influence Diagram is a Bayesian Network that also includes Decision and Utility nodes .
. Inputs an outputs allow for dynamic interaction with the rest of the Extend model.Library Description Get Belief State# Belief Input desired state number Output belief The Netica library for Extend is a set of modeling blocks that allows you perform any function on a Netica Bayesian Network or Influence Diagram that can be done using the Netica graphical user interface.
Why is this Unique? Extend Qu'est que c'est le croyance que le noeud de rayons X est sur l'etat un? What? Netica API ModL (Pascal-based) C++ (C-based) Extend and Netica can not communicate with each other directly .
Custom Translator Allows Communications Extend Qu'est que c'est le croyance que le noeud de rayons X est sur l'etat un? What is the belief that node XRay is in state one? Netica API .675 ModL (Pascal-based) Translator (C++) C++ (C-based) .
Applications for Netica Users • Test a network you have created in its simulated operating environment • Generate probabilities and utilities for CPT tables by having the network learn from a simulation • Develop networks that can change over time • Batch process a large number of cases by reading and writing to an Excel worksheet • Reduce complexity by building multiple. smaller networks and then using Extend to have them operate as one .
Applications for Extend Users • Have networks make complex. multi-attribute decisions during the simulation – Network can control the simulation • Model a complex phenomenon that can not be described mathematically .
Netica Library File Functions Initialize/Open/ Compile Network Initialize/Open Network Open/ Compile Network Sav e Network Close Network Compile Network Fade Node Retract All Findings Network Functions Retract Node Findings Rev ise Probabilities Select Network degree Enter/Set Functions Enter Finding Enter Finding Not Enter Likelihood Set Node Value Set State degree Set State Not Set Utility Value 1 2 3 4 5 Value State State Value Get Functions Get Belief Get Belief Get Decision Get Likelihood Most Likely State Most Likely Value Get Statistics Get Value Belief State# Belief Decision# State# Likelihood State Value Mean Std Dev Value .
Integrated Simulation Example Aircraft Motion Equation Model ExtendSim Radar Cross Section Bayesian Network Netica Radar Equation Model ExtendSim Shoot Decision Influence Diagram Netica 42 .
Aircraft Radar Cross Section .
Bayesian Network RCS Model dBsm 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Test Data Model Prediction Bayesian network provides a good representation of the RCS .
B-29) 45 40 35 YRange (NM) No Detection Detection 30 25 20 60 70 80 90 100 XRange (NM) 110 120 130 Model displays target scintillation (fades in and out) like a real engagement .Radar Target Track (F-16 FMS Radar vs.
75 NoRadar 18.5 LT500kts 18.1 16.0 Airbus 10.Combat ID Network Hostile Neutral Friendly None Intel 18.3 s500to700Kts 41.5 Friendly 32.25 7.3 Courtesy of CDR George Laskey .0 Comms True 33.7 CommRadar2 13.1 Position AirRoute 20.0 Neutral 25.3 9.8 24.0 F14 40.0 EW F14Radar 27.60 NoReply 94.40 23.5 MissileRadar 7.0 CommRadar1 11.4 Identity Hostile 42.2 ReturnToForce 11.0 IFF ValidReply 5.5 50.9 False 66.00 Boeing 15.5 Classification Mig29 30.5 Neither 68.0 Missile 5.8 F14 Mig29 Boeing Airbus Other None RSM 30.3 Kinematics GT700kts 40.4 15.2 Mig29Radar 21.25 5.
Shoot Don’t Shoot .Damage US prestige. .Significant damage to US fleet and prestige on the order of hundreds to thousands of lives lost and hundreds of millions to billions $ in damage 47 . .Destroy commercial airliner and kill possibly hundreds of civilians and cause tens of million of dollars in damage . .No harm to US forces but significant damage to US prestige.Reaffirms US forces are capable of defending themselves.Evaluation of Utility Action/Hypothesis Friendly .Tens of million of dollars in damage and loss of pilot .No harm to US forces or prestige Hostile .Possible loss of job Commercial .No harm to US forces or prestige. .Destroy enemy aircraft.Destroy friendly aircraft. .
Expert Elicitation Network Test 250 200 150 Engagements Shoot No_Shoot 100 50 0 MIG-29 Missile Boeing Aircraft Airbus F-14 .
Network Modification • Network was then modified by adding arcs from node “Identity” to nodes “EW” and “Kinematics”. • Once all node states for the influence diagram were set. • The equation-based model generated random aircraft engagements. the probabilities and utility values were updated 49 . Otherwise. but was modified to randomly make the shoot decision and then determine the utility of that decision. • The influence diagram was cleared of all probabilities and utility values. these aircraft are neutral. • A new policy that a MIG-29 flying at the radar at speeds greater than 500 knots and with their radar on is considered to be hostile.
Simulation Learning Network Test 250 200 150 Engagements Shoot No_Shoot 100 50 0 MIG-29 Missile Boeing Aircraft Airbus F-14 .
Genetic Agents Teach an Influence Diagram OpEMCSS CSS Priority count Agent1 Mov e Current Game Results Reward1 Agent2 Mov e Reward2 Set Game Parameters Initialize Initialize/Open/ Compile Network Set A Local Agent1 Best Game A degree First Move Local Agent2 Best Set A B Def ine Rewards A Set A Multiple Games to Find Best Strategy Get Ev olv e Agent1 Ev olv e Ev olv e A Agent2 Ev olv e Agent1 Mov e Get Split A Agent2 Mov e Local A Logic Set A Agent1 Agent1 Reward Local Agent2 Reward Assemble ? A Agent1 Set A Agent2 Agent2 A Results Mov e Statistics Set Node Value Set Node Value Set Utility Value Rev ise Probabilities Sav e Network a Close Network Statistics E b Value Value Value Def ine MOEs Agent1 degree Agent2 Utility degree Game2 .
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