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CBIP building retro t precedents SCORING MODEL creating a catalog of social currency FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS
CBIP building retro t precedents SCORING MODEL creating a catalog of social currency FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS

CBIP

building retro t precedents

CBIP building retro t precedents SCORING MODEL creating a catalog of social currency FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS
SCORING MODEL creating a catalog of social currency FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS consumer credit risk assessing
SCORING
MODEL
creating a catalog
of social currency
FUNDAMENTAL COMPONENTS
consumer credit risk
assessing creditworthiness
(ie. predicting delinquency)
OF A CATALOG ENTRY
1. name
evaluate with
Give a descriptive title.
a ranking system
environment/energy
based on RISK
program
site/context/public space
Identify catalytic issues in current zoning,
systems/structure/circulation
green initiatives and building precedents.
atmosphere/effect
aesthetics/form
financial value
3.
recommendation
Propose
probability of future
design performance
and social value
Describe the particulars.
assessing failure potential
(and success)
social design
CREDIT
5.
design solution / proposal

Provide an example in context.

creating an exchange market for social currency
creating an exchange market
for social currency

CREDIT SCORE

Statistically based model for attributing a number score to

a candidate which indicates

the predicted probability that

it will exhibit a certain behavior.

[suggested] scoring factors

that it will exhibit a certain behavior. [suggested] scoring factors Summarized grading system for cross-comparison.
that it will exhibit a certain behavior. [suggested] scoring factors Summarized grading system for cross-comparison.
that it will exhibit a certain behavior. [suggested] scoring factors Summarized grading system for cross-comparison.

Summarized grading system for cross-comparison.

+

RISKworth + RESILIENCE mapping.

• •

state of resilience.

Responding to change elastically with quick

recovery times. Absorbs disruption through re-organization while retaining the same function, structure and identity.

tracking change and consistency through design iterations and element exchange cycles

states, transitions and thresholds.

High magnitudes of disruption can result in an irreversible transition across a threshold

into a new state where a di erent regime of processes and structure takes over.

di erent regime of processes and structure takes over . likelihood impact = RISK • factors

likelihood

impact

=

RISK

•

factors of shift.

Triggers as catalysts that initiate resilience shift. Feedback mechanisms track relative intensity.

+

[RISK] potential gain

-

re: de ciencies of scoring methods

uncertainty

RISK

[RISK] potential loss

-vs-

projection of multiple design scenarios [measuring uncertainty] probability assigned to design scenarios

[ PARAMETRIC SCENARIO PRODUCTION ]

uncertainty tied to a value currency [measuring risk] probability and value currency assigned to design scenarios

[ SCENARIO EXCHANGE MARKET ]

forecasting multiple scenarios

exchanging scenarios based on RISKworth

Quantifying the potential of future storylines.

Deficiencies of Scoring Methods.

measurement as an act of reducing uncertainty; not achieving an exact quantity. Not a quantitative
measurement as an act
of reducing uncertainty; not
achieving an exact quantity.
Not a quantitative
unit of measure

• Ranking on an Ordinal Scale Relative order of what’s being assessed Scores de ne an isolated rank-order

being assessed Scores de ne an isolated rank-order excellent very good good fair poor Likelihood of

excellent

very good

good

fair

poor

ne an isolated rank-order excellent very good good fair poor Likelihood of Occurrence Ranges > >

Likelihood of Occurrence Ranges

> > > > >
>
>
>
>
>

99%

95%

90%

NO magnitude or direction
NO magnitude
or direction

66%

50%

33-66%

• Additive Weighted Scores (Point System Rating) Addition of mutiple rank-order scores to produce an aggregate score

[ rank order scores ]

scores to produce an aggregate score [ rank order scores ] good + only units of

good

+

only units of measure apply Mathematical laws of addition don’t apply to rank-order scores
only units of
measure apply
Mathematical laws of addition
don’t apply to rank-order scores

[ aggregate score ]

=
=

very good

excellent

Deficiencies of Scoring Methods.

scale ] [ ordinal Threat • Multiplicative Matrices Multiplication of rank-order scores to produce an
scale ]
[ ordinal
Threat
• Multiplicative Matrices
Multiplication of rank-order scores to produce an aggregate score
only units of
measure apply
Mathematical laws of multiplication
don’t apply to rank-order scores
[ rank order scores ]
[ aggregate score ]
likelihood
impact
=
RISK
aggregate
score
[ rank order scores ]
[ aggregate score ]
threat
vulnerability
consequence
=
RISK
no direction
unlikely
likely
very likely
perceived likelihood
rank order
scores
Proposed Alternate Method.
(3rd dimension)
change over time
• RISKworth as quantitative vector
direction
[ vector]
[ vector]
[ vector ]
and magnitude
likelihood
+ impact
= RISK
[ probability of frequency ]
[ magnitude of intensity ]
[
design scenario ]
RISKworth
[ vector space ]
RISKworth
RISK
[ vector space ]
[ vector ]
+
likelihood
[ Vulnerability
ordinal scale ]
low
perceived impact
medium
high
[ ordinal scale ]
+
+
[ vector]
impact
Consequence
[ ordinal scale ]

[ vector]