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They include a manned mission to Mars by 2030. Puerto Rico and Germany. the head of Roscosmos. "For 20 years. during the halcyon days of the Soviet space program. by Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin. but was perpetually postponed. is slated to be fully operational by the end of this year.000 times better than the American-built Hubble Space Telescope. Russia can solve for space development and exploration. given that its data will be combined with signals collected from Earth stations. It's just great. Correspondent and Staff Writer for the Christian Science Monitor (7/19/11. which is also known as RadioAstron. Earlier this year.de/dw/article/0. according to ITAR-TASS. "The main point is that Russia is returning to scientific programs in space after a long break.dwworld. All international space missions ferrying humans into space will have to be launched via the Russian Soyuz capsule from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. including Mars missions. and even a few years ago appeared to be little more than a "space taxi" to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station. “Russia launches advanced space telescope. Rocket launchRussian space authorities said the telescope reached its target orbit several hours after launchThe telescope. which was launched in 1990. and this is a logical next step for our space program. even Russia's traditional space niche of powerful rocket launchers and venerable Soyuz space vehicles is set to become the only game in town.Fred Weir." said Ken Kellermann of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in the United States. “Russian Telescope Launch Pulls National Space Program Out of Black Hole. Russian space scientists now have a variety of ambitious projects on the agenda. and the fact that it will have a large 340. space debris collection. And with the end of the US space shuttle program." Scientists from more than 20 countries will participate in RadioAstron's five-year mission. Despite some very serious recent setbacks.csmonitor.Solvency This year is key to ensure Russia remains competitiveness in the space race Farivar 7/19/11. In November. But with increased funding and improving morale.000-mile) orbit. and was mothballed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 2 .000-kilometer (around 211. Moscow feted the 50th anniversary of the first manned spaceflight. as it surges ahead during the hiatus of manned American space missions. has a 10-meter (32. according to the Russian Space Agency.00. and exploration of the Martian moon Phobos Weird 7/19/11.15250208. in an interview with the American magazine New Scientist. a small size when compared to many current terrestrial radio telescopes. GPS. However.. This year is significant for the Russian space program.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell.com/World/Europe/2011/0719/Russian-telescope-launchpulls-national-space-program-out-of-black-hole/%28page%29/2) SP Russia has held advanced positions traditionally. Russian space authorities are planning on coordinating the new telescope's observations with radio telescopes in the United States. Russia will finally launch its long-awaited Phobos-Grunt probe.” http://www. which aims to bring home a soil sample from the Martian moon Phobos. Russia's answer to the US Global Positioning System (GPS) navigational network. Skip to next paragraph Russia's space program fell on hard times after the collapse of the USSR 20 years ago. and a nuclear-powered spacepod that could gobble up space junk like an orbiting Pac-Man.8-foot) diameter.html) SP A Soviet legacy The space telescope was initially conceived of decades ago. it was always five years away." said Vladimir Popovkin.” http://www. space shuttle systems. a space plane to rival the US X-37B. Staff Writer for the AFP (7/19/11.Cyrus Farivar. the telescope is expected to have a resolution 100. Glonass.

Such a war might however be a local terminal risk for the cities most likely to be targeted.mil/pdffiles/pub908. Journal of Evolution and Technology (March 2002. and missile defenses. Researcher for the Strategic Studies Institute (March 2009.57 Weapons in space.58 U. they may significantly lower the threshold of military intervention. one of the many nightmare scenarios of the Russian leadership. either accidentally or deliberately. substantive. or qualitative progress in American capabilities beyond the confines of what Russia defines as strategic stability will allow America to harvest the full benefits of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) and give it either a means of attacking Russia’s nuclear arsenal. between India and Pakistan for instance. in History from the University of Chicago.the lowered thresholds of military intervention increase the likelihood of miscalculation Blank 9.-Russian miscalculation is the only scenario for extinction Bostrom 2. Russia wants to keep things this way because any unilateral. is not an existential risk.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell.A. that may well challenge Russia’s interests in various regions and especially in areas close to the Russian borders. Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 3 . all they need to do is be deployed as instruments of coercive diplomacy as in a Kosovo-type crisis. B. for it believes that the new capabilities might open the way to a more aggressive interventionist policy of the United States and NATO. in History from the University of Pennsylvania and M. “Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”) SP A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. Former Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace. bypassing it by high-precision conventional attacks. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange. are among such breakout possibilities for America. and Ph. nullifying it by missile defenses.strategicstudiesinstitute. that the parity with the United States will then no longer exist. And the nightmare is.[4] Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation. Such capabilities need not be used in conflict to be successful.Stephen Blank. Unfortunately.S. And this is exactly the outcome that Russia is worried about. we shall see that nuclear Armageddon and comet or asteroid strikes are mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization. as countless Russian statements state openly. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. the use of conventional missiles on nuclear launchers.A.Russian Competitiveness Scenario 1 is Russian CompetitivenessRussia perceives any unilateral space policy by the United States as offensive.pdf) SP Furthermore. “Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration?” http://www. or combining the three through space weaponization. One of the consequences of this is that if the promises held by the revolution in military affairs materialize. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. even incompletely. since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.Nick Bostrom.army.D. As Pavel Podvig has observed. Professor of Philosophy at Oxford University.

A growing number of Russians tell pollsters that Russia is moving in the wrong direction. CJS But perhaps the most striking difference between Russia and America is in their attitudes to their respective space programs.html. however. And when Russia’s space program makes a misstep—such as when three Russian navigational satellites ended up in the Pacific Ocean after technicians overfilled one of the tanks in the rocket’s upper stage last December—the Kremlin very publicly steps in. I imagine no one really knows which way to jump. Its candidates failed in a number of cases to win majorities even though they had no real opposition. see a few things that should alarm them. So has Medvedev’s. but it is the direction of change that counts. CJS The campaign will be decided by power politics. they will support Medvedev.com/articles/2011/07/08/it-s-goodbye-shuttle-hello-soyuz-after-atlantis-last-flight.Russian Politics Scenario 2 is Russian PoliticsThe Russian elections will come down to Putin and Medvedev’s popularity Gregory 5/23 Paul Gregory. despite his massive formal powers as president. Putin’s political party. Many opinion-making celebrities.” Bizony adds. If the electors think that Putin is on his way down. The pro-Putin forces. Can he strike a deal with Medvedev that will preserve his wealth and give him legal immunity? The electors will be frantically reading the tea leaves.thedailybeast. their interest has waned in the new century.” Space winning key to Medvedev popularity Daily Beast 11 The Daily Beast. research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute.” says Bizony. NASA’s future is uncertain because “it has not so much been fulfilling a new dream as living in the shadow of an old one. http://www. Putin himself would have this concern ten times over.nationalreview. by contrast. Putin’s personal popularity has been falling in the polls. The beneficiaries of Putin’s corruption will worry that they will lose everything if there is a regime change. and journalists are now openly critical of Putin. President Dmitry Medvedev personally sacked top managers. 7/8/2011. focusing on the Russian Economy and Russian politics. Both men’s approval ratings remain high. “A Russian Rift”. The electors must also make personal cost-benefit calculations. took a beating in the recent municipal elections. but Putin is the symbol of the status quo. the space race was won when Neil Armstrong landed on the moon in 1969. they will back Putin. Massive festivities were held across Russia for the 50th anniversary of the Gagarin flight last April 12. being a major player in the space game remains a point of national pride. The failure to win majorities suggests that voters chose “anybody but Putin’s candidate. If they conclude that Medvedev is a paper tiger. and earlier this year called for Russia to develop its own space-exploration program for “our nation’s scientific ambitions … if we do not do this. artists. At this point. http://www. For Russia. 5/23/2011. After the December debacle. United Russia. So they might support Putin — or they might offer their support to Medvedev in return for guarantees. we will fall behind. The National Review Online.com/articles/267809/russianrift-paul-gregory?page=3.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. an American news reporting and opinion website. For most Americans. “Russians Win the Space Race”. A Soviet make of space-branded watches called Raketa—worn by Gagarin himself—has been revived as a luxury brand for Russia’s patriotically minded new rich. “relative to Russians.” Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 4 .

Ethnic riots escalate. thrive in the retail. After waning during Medvedev's term of office. For opposition groups. Moscow also increases its presence in Central Asia as the growth of religious extremism there prompts regional leaders to seek a strong and unscrupulous ally in the fight against Muslim radicals. Should any of these events — or a combination of them — occur this year or in the first weeks of 2012. http://www. progressing toward incorporating the country by solidifying its control over the economy of its neighbor. CJS The probability of Putin's return to power will increase substantially if any of the following key events occur before Medvedev's first term expires: Putin comes to believe that Medvedev will fail to either cope with challenges or protect his interests in 2012-18. Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko lacks alternatives due to his increasing isolation from the West. the Eurasian Economic Community and the Commonwealth of Independent States. it means a further stifling of their legal activities as the government increases control over NGOs under the pretence of fighting terrorism and extremism. and Simon Sardzhyan is a research fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and a former editor of the Moscow Times. agriculture. it is Russia that remains the center of gravity for the Central Asian republics. A new war of words flares up between Moscow and Washington and Brussels over ballistic missile defense deployment in Europe. from energy giants to retail firms. Russia increases its involvement in Belarus. Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 5 . Putin also continues to anchor these and other former Soviet republics to Moscow through integration projects such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization. A major terrorist attack or meltdown in the North Caucasus materializes.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. Putin will replace Medvedev in the Kremlin to ensure political stability and solidify his own policies. Frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union escalate. Putin pursues a closer alignment with China. Trying to offset the impact that a more aggressive foreign policy might have had on international investors. which galvanizes North Caucasus religious extremists and creates new risks for the United States and NATO personnel deployed abroad.themoscowtimes. The strong authoritarian political model that is being rebuilt by Putin is increasingly appealing to the Central Asian leaders. Having cooled Russia's engagement with the West. The favorable conditions offered by the Russian government attract quite a few major international companies. further increasing energy exports to this country. the concept of sovereign democracy will stage a triumphant return as the core of Russia's national ideology. entertainment and automobile sectors. However. both Russian and international. The State Duma passes a new set of laws further curtailing civil liberties and media freedoms. Although Chinese influence on the economy of these states increases.html. “News Analysis: Vladmir Putin’s 2012 Dilemna”.Russian Politics Putin takeover tanks US-Russia relations Abdullaev and Sardzhyan 7/12 Nabi Abdullaev is the editor of the Moscow Times with the European Union Institute for Security Studies and presented at Harvard’s Center for Russian Eurasian Studies. While state champions continue to dominate in the so-called strategic industries — such as Gazprom and Rosneft in the energy sector and Russian Technologies in the defense industry sector — private companies.com/news/article/news-analysis-vladimir-putins-2012-dilemma/440376. 7/12/2011. Putin — understanding full well the need to diversify the economy — decides to liberalize foreign corporations' access to the Russian market. food. pragmatic approaches on both sides help gradually relieve tensions as Washington and Moscow converge on the perception that their common immediate security threat is posed not by each other but by a new wave of militant Islamism. construction. The influence of the siloviki escalates. but Putin does not allow any particular group in the clan to dominate. The attempts by Russian companies to acquire downstream energy transportation infrastructure continue to meet the tacit but formidable resistance of most European governments.

Authoritarian yet insecure. The country's borders span across Europe.S. In 2008. As one of the five permanent members of the U. Then last [Collins and Rojansky continue…no text deleted] Wednesday. Security Council. Engagement is the only way forward.a technique that burns natural gas into the open atmosphere during oil extraction. DOD Award for Distinguished Public Service. Moscow signaled renewed interest in resolving frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria.org/2010/08/18/why-russia-matters/3si CJS A year and a half after Barack Obama hit the "reset" button with Russia. there is work to be done.needed to reverse the global warming trend. but as a signatory to the Copenhagen Accord. have agreed to a long-term goal of eliminating nuclear weapons entirely. in 2009. but progress is evident. Russia supported a G-20 resolution promising to refrain from protectionism and avoid new barriers to investment or trade. vast freshwater and ocean resources. a negotiated settlement is still very possible. the region that broke off from Georgia during the August 2008 war. Moscow's historical ties to newly independent states are still fresh and powerful.including recent efforts to levy tougher sanctions on Iran or. economically mighty yet technologically backward. BA from Harvard. which takes such steps as requiring goods to be marked according to their energy efficiency Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 6 . Russia today is the world's fourth-largest carbon emitter.all regions where the United States has important interests and where it cannot afford destructive competition.carnegieendowment. Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Harvard Undergrad Stanford Law School. and politically divisive. Central and East Asia. Sure. it remains the only mechanism granting U. diplomacy. and Azerbaijan from prospering economically and moving toward European Union membership. Russian support for such resolutions can also help persuade China and others not to block them. which has tried to defuse tensions there for the last 24 months. 8/18/2010. Russia's environment matters. Matthew Rojansky is the deputy director of the Russia Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. On climate change. the United States has a strong interest in Central Asian stability and relies on Russia not only for direct assistance with logistics and information sharing. Last year he also signed Russia's first law on energy efficiency. provoked some of the harshest criticism of Russia yet from the Obama administration. the reconciliation is still fragile. Collins was the former ambassador to Russia.including many of the forests now badly burned -. and the Arctic -. With an ongoing counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan. Boris Nemtsov.N. and New START promises to cut deployed strategic arsenals by a further 30 percent from a current limit of 2. against North Korea following that country's second nuclear test. Moscow holds veto power over any resolution that the body might seek to pass -. former head of the Partnership for a Secure America which focuses on bipartisan dialogue on US National Security Challenges. but Medvedev agreed to capture 95 percent of the gas currently released through flaring. recipient of the Secretary of State Award for Distinguished Service. Ronald Reagan popularized the phrase. "Trust. With more than one-tenth of the world's total landmass. South Ossetia. http://www. 4. Washington can't afford not to work with Moscow. Secretary of State’s Distinguished Honor Award. Recently. Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons in stockpile and hundreds still on hair-trigger alert aimed at U. Russia's nukes are still an existential threat. the country has proven a challenge for U. Russia is an indispensable partner in the responsible stewardship of the global environment. The announcement was hardly welcome news for the United States. Russia is no easy ally for the United States. Another black spot is Russia's use of "flaring" -. but verify" -.Russian Politics US Russia relations solves extinction Collins and Rojansky 10 James F. Dmitry Medvedev. Russia is a swing vote on the international stage.S. expert in the Soviet Union. presidents since the end of the Cold War. it has pledged to reduce emissions to 20 to 25 percent below 1990 levels. the strategic nuclear weapons treaty now up for debate in the Senate. Here are 10 reasons why: 1. director of the Russia Eurasia Program. And despite recent troop movements into Abkhazia. but to help manage threats like the recent political upheaval and sectarian violence in Kyrgyzstan. Russia plays an equally crucial role in the G-8 and G-20 economic groups. New START. The original START agreement was essential for reining in the runaway Cold War nuclear buildup. Russia announced that it had moved anti-aircraft missiles into Abkhazia. But they can only do that by working together. As the catastrophic fires across Western Russia have dramatically illustrated. 2. This threat will not go away on its own. and still apt for today.a good guiding principle for Cold War arms negotiators. Russia is big. To this day. inspectors access to secret Russian nuclear sites. President Obama and his Russian counterpart. cutting down the arsenal will require direct.S. one that returns some territory to Georgia but preserves its autonomous status.550 on each side. The post-reset relationship between Moscow and Washington works like a force multiplier for U. bilateral arms control talks between Russia and the United States.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. cities. plus deposits of nearly every element on the periodic table.200 to 1. Recent news hasn't helped: The arrest in July of a former deputy prime minister and leader of the Solidarity opposition movement. Moscow is the linchpin to resolving "frozen conflicts" that prevent countries like Moldova. 3. “Why Russia Matters”. is the latest in a long line of bilateral arms control agreements between the countries dating back to the height of the Cold War. incomplete. Yet however challenging this partnership may be. for example. along with that of its fellow breakaway republic. helping to formulate a coordinated approach in response to economic threats. Russia is both a victim of global climate change and a steward of natural resources -. In the former Soviet space. Georgia. for example.S. Even more.

S. and each of the working groups addressing conflicts in the post-Soviet space. and wants more access to U. the United States and Russia are looked to as the standard-setters. If they fail to ratify their latest modest step forward on bilateral nuclear arms control. The two countries are currently working to map smuggling routes in Central Asia. and other shared security priorities. Russia alone possesses roughly onequarter of the world's known gas reserves. law enforcement efforts to defeat organized crime and terrorism financing. and it is currently responsible for over a fifth of global exports. most of Russia's other commitments are short on deadlines and concrete deliverables. In such post-Soviet regions in particular. Black Sea and Siberia. Leading by example on nonproliferation is also a must. as the world's biggest nuclear powers. But like China's cleanup for the Beijing Olympics. Russia is committed to becoming a free-trading World Trade Organization member.both top concerns on Washington's nuclear nonproliferation radar. In the Middle East. which put a choke-hold on Russia's gas pipelines. and Western Europe to find a way around this problem. but these are already top talking points in Medvedev's modernization drive. Excessive bureaucracy and widespread [Collins and Rojansky continue…no text deleted] corruption are the biggest challenges to Russia's further economic growth. Moscow is currently working with the United States. As the "R" in the famous BRIC grouping of emerging economies. Russia still controls a network of commercial and intelligence assets and has substantial influence with the Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 7 . And in the meantime. Much of the trouble is attributable to the legacy of Soviet energy infrastructure in Russia's western neighbors.or if it chooses. given the right amount of international engagement.Russia has a strong interest in making sure there is no repeat. with the third-largest foreign currency reserves. The even better news for Washington is that Russia is not a member of OPEC. no text deleted) and banning [Collins and Rojansky continue…no text deleted] incandescent light bulbs after 2014. And as a country that felt the global financial crisis viscerally -. Even during the dark days after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Washington needs allies with that kind of leverage to help punish violators and discourage cascading nuclear proliferation worldwide.gasoline. 5. infectious disease prevention and response. counternarcotics.Russian Politics (Collins and Rojansky 10 continues. natural gas. Russia is the 12th-largest market in world. and the 5+2 group on Transnistria. well-organized responses to such crises are key to preventing weaknesses from being exploited -. The American way of life depends on stable and predictable commodity prices -. True. 9. Moscow has the potential to play a role in the settlement of key regional conflicts -. and sell their products. and European technology and management know-how to drive its modernization. to obstruct progress. and it is open to foreign investment -. and acting as a peacekeeper once a final settlement is reached. Despite occasional retrenchments. Both Washington and Moscow recognize that swift. such as the OSCE Minsk group on Nagorno-Karabakh. In the past. and engagement with more transparent Western countries such as the United States can only help. sending senior diplomats to Tehran and offering carrots such as civilian nuclear assistance and weapons sales (though it has deferred the sale of advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles that could be used to blunt a U. 7. Russia has a unique capacity to contribute to peaceful resolution of territorial disputes by facilitating trade and economic engagement with and between former adversaries. Now more than ever.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. Russia maintains unique relationships with Iran and North Korea -. the cartel of oil-producing countries. many will no doubt remember the so-called gas wars between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and Belarus that left Eastern Europe in the cold several times in recent years." the six-party talks dealing with North Korean denuclearization. 6. China.S. it will be difficult to push other countries to take similar counter-proliferation measures. the country boasts a volatile but increasingly attractive stock exchange. Russia is a big player in commodity trading. Russian businesses are increasingly looking abroad to form strategic partnerships. the two have worked together under the auspices of the Bilateral Presidential Commission to coordinate relief strategies for catastrophes such as the Haiti earthquake and the violence in Kyrgyzstan. Russia can be a peacemaker.economic growth fell by almost 8 percent in 2009 -. Moscow and Washington cooperated effectively on counterterrorism. One word: energy. and coal in particular -and Russia plays a large role in the global production and pricing of these fossil fuels. Russia is also a critical partner in U. 8. Russia is a staunch ally in the war on terror (and other scourges). Russia is a member of the Middle East "Quartet. This gives the country far more freedom to focus on increasing exports rather than reducing them to keep prices down. Moscow could transform resolve into reality with surprising speed. the Siberian provinces alone contain more clean oxygen-producing forests and reserves of freshwater than continental Europe. It is the second largest oil-producing state after Saudi Arabia and has the second-largest coal reserves after the United States. When it comes to bringing supply to market. the Kremlin has used its leverage to keep the path open for negotiations. Russia is rich. which will entail building new pipelines through the Baltic Sea.for example by extremist groups who are happy to fill the vacuum of government authority. such as the ban on grain exports after the summer fires. or Israeli air strike). And the country's role in world markets is only growing. The roads to Tehran and Pyongyang go through Moscow.S. acquire assets. Russia's natural climate-cleaning properties are vast. Recently. And Russia has shared information with the United States on the informal financial networks used to fund Taliban and Afghan warlords.even in state-owned industries.

Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 8 . most everyone agrees that boosting exports is a key component in the recovery. Russia is indispensible. goods. and although that figure dropped by a third in 2009. before the financial crisis hit. more balanced trade relationship in the coming decade.S. there is potential for an even better.S. As the U.Russian Politics (Collins and Rojansky 10 continues. equipment and machinery. and John Deere have invested billions in Russian subsidiaries and joint ventures. Russians buy U. 10. In all. And Russia is a big market. In short. companies such as Boeing. it will have no choice but to maintain relations with Russia.S. U.S. who should be pushed to play a more productive role in the Arab-Israeli peace process. economy stops and starts its way out of recession.-Russia trade grew by more than 100 percent to over $36 billion annually. no text deleted) Syrians. companies doing business there today. And good relations would be even better.S.000 U. Between 2004 and 2008. U. there are more than 1. They are in Russia not only to take advantage of the country's vast natural resources and highly skilled workers but also to meet the demand for Americanbranded goods.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. The Russian middle class wants consumer goods and the country's firms increasingly seek advanced U.S. As long as the United States participates in the global economy and has interests beyond its own borders. International [Collins and Rojansky continue…no text deleted] Paper.

ru/articles/2010/03/24/240310_space. Constellation human-flight program that Obama has all but abandoned was designed. Euroconsult reported. In the meantime. For now. President Putin launched an initial $10 billion program for the space industry between 2006 and 2015. the program is “fundamentally unexecutable. Fla. comparing funding today with funding in the penurious 1990s. in April. The government said that though NASA has already spent $9 billion on it. Down on earth. their dominance could be challenged in the next decade by India and China as they fund their own programs. But President Barack Obama has slashed NASA’s dreams of going to the moon again. America will look to private companies to invest in future spacecraft. to “establish an extended human presence on the Moon” that would then lead to flights to Mars. Russian-American space cooperation has increased. At the same time.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. Building new spacecraft for the exploration of Mars is again a flight of fancy. Shuttle retires from service. are scheduled to launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. you need years and years. Circling the planet. As the United States reprioritizes its programs. There has been concerted investment in recent years.” Instead. an investment that fits in well with the Putin doctrine of trying to restore Russian pride through capacity.” he said.html) On April 2. No private companies have so far secured investment for spacecraft. In the wake of recent criticism. astronauts will hitch a lift on Russian spacecraft.S. Russian and American space watchers wonder if this may herald another policy shift.S. spending $2.S. the crew will engage in intense cooperation unknown on the ground. U. new Soyuz crew members. America is relying more and more on the Russian federal space program for key assistance. while the U. Obama cut it from the 2011 budget as the effects of the financial crisis continue to be felt and program expenditure soared.” said Igor Lissov.8 billion in 2009. vision appears dampened. 3/24/10. according to President George W. Russia will fuel space exploration once again. And while both countries feel they are the front runners. editor of News of Cosmonautics (Novosti Kosmonavtiki). Russian academic Yury Zaitsev told Interfax news agency that he thought the United States would be dependent on Russia to transport its astronauts until at least 2020. he called on them to pursue “really ambitious projects. so this arrangement will likely continue for much longer. the Russian space industry is feeling the warm glow of state backing once again.S. the United States will rely solely on the Russian space program as the U. but there is also unease as the power of the players is shifting.” The U. When Putin congratulated space industry workers in 2008 on Cosmonauts' Day (April 12). Obama announced he will make a visit to Cape Canaveral. two Russians and one American. Bush. the home of NASA. NASA has long spent more money on more programs than Russia’s space agency. http://rbth. “In order to bring a craft to the standards of quality and safety for a piloted flight.S.. a move that has NASA supporters crying foul.Russian Economy Scenario 3 is the Russian Economy With the US backing down Russia has massively increased its investments in space Kevin O’Flynn ‘10 (a journalist at The Moscow Times who has lived and worked in Russia for ten years. astronauts to fly to the International Space Station in 2012. Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 9 . the country will rely on Russia to take its astronauts into space. The Russian government has increased spending on the space industry by a remarkable 40 percent for each of the past five years. NASA has signed a $306 million contract with the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) for U. “It’s like night and day.

S. http://www. The country is using the launch fee of $63 million per member on craft development. Alexander Samokutiaev and Andrey Borisenko of Roscosmos and NASA’s Ron Garan are scheduled to arrive at the station on April 7." he said. routine trips to so-called low. as Putin.Russian Economy The perception that Russia can close the gap with the US is the key driver of these investments – the plan ends that perception Ilya Arkhipov and Lyubov Pronina 4/5/11 (Staff writers for Bloomberg news. astronauts to travel to the station following a decision to end the almost 30-year-old space shuttle program this year.S." Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 10 . but it is rapidly aging.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. "All that has kept the country afloat. The launch marks the 50th anniversary on April 12 of Yuri Gagarin’s first mission to space. including the agency’s previous administrator and Neil Armstrong." he said. “We can now advance on all themes a bit. the first man to walk on the Moon. according to Russia’s Roscosmos space agency. U. Russia may also send a man to Mars by 2040. It will provide the only way for U." Medvedev said. Bush’s administration. Medvedev said that the economic downturn hit Russia more severely than other countries but refused to shift the blame onto the U. “It is the first time that the government has allocated decent financing to us. Perminov said. said by phone yesterday.S. “We’ll increase financing if possible. developed under former President George W. head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos. for sending crews to the ISS through 2015. Russia may start manned flights to the moon by the end of the decade.” he said. maintenance and upgrade. Bloomberg. and establish a base there by 2030. "We shouldn't be looking for the guilty party abroad. reaching the highest since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. “We need to replace outdated infrastructure and continue to support the flagship status of the space industry.S. when beating the U. The agency’s $3.html) Russia may accelerate planned missions to the moon and Mars as it seeks to maintain its lead over China in space exploration and close the gap with the U. the spokesman for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Medvedev also called for reducing state involvement in the economy and promised to offer support to civil society. which would have built rockets and spacecraft for a return to the moon by 2020. President Dmitry Medvedev has named aerospace one of five industries the government plans to nurture to help diversify the economy of the world’s largest energy supplier away from resource extraction. Russia is focusing on the commercial. U. Medvedev said that years of burgeoning energy prices have stymied efforts to modernize the economy and created an illusion that structural reforms could wait. Space investments are key to sustaining Russia’s economy USA Today 11/12/09 (Newspaper. Medvedev said the country has continued to rely on an aging Soviet industrial base and to draw most of its revenues from exports of energy resources.S. President Dmitry Medvedev said in his annual state-of-the-nation address Thursday.htm) MOSCOW (AP) — Russia needs to shed its dependence on exports of raw materials and to build a new high-tech economy to survive." He said that Russia needs to focus on innovative know-how.S. The decision has been criticized by former NASA astronauts and officials. "We can't wait any longer. Russia is working on the ISS with the U. Vladimir Putin. said in a phone interview on April 2. Peskov said.” Dmitry Peskov.com/news/2011-04-04/russia-speeds-up-moon-mars-plans-as-u-s-may-cut-space-funds.com/news/world/2009-11-12-russia-economy_N. saying it will sideline the American space program. "We haven't done enough. $300 million less than the funding targeted for this year. Medvedev said in the Kremlin speech that Russia's oil.usatoday. into space marked a geopolitical victory in the Cold War. depending on the budget balance. did. gas and other production facilities as well as its nuclear arsenals were built during Soviet times. "We need to launch modernization and renovation of the entire industrial base. technological and scientific aspects of space travel. with the last two flights scheduled for April and June.S. now Russia's powerful prime minister. citing Medvedev http://www. Funds Russia receives $752 million from the U. including research on new nuclear reactors and space technologies.S. Unlike 50 years ago.bloomberg. “We are increasing the space budget as the time has come for a technological breakthrough.5 billion budget for 2011 has almost tripled since 2007. 10 years earlier than previously planned. and even think about preparing for space flights to other planets. "The nation's prestige and welfare can't depend forever on the achievements of the past. Roscosmos said on its website.earth orbit will be outsourced to private companies. President Barack Obama in February last year announced an end to NASA’s Constellation program. NASA is seeking an $18. Our nation's survival in the modern world will depend on that.” Space Station Cooperation Russia’s Soyuz TMA-21 spacecraft with three astronauts on board was launched early today from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to the International Space Station. Russia intends to continue allocating more funds for the space industry.7 billion budget for next year.” Anatoly Perminov." he added. because the industry was and remains one of our priorities. In a challenge to his predecessor and mentor.” Perminov said. With no manned government rockets ready to go.

If conditions get worse. Should Russia succumb to internal war. unemployment scarcely existed. A future conflict would quickly draw in Russia's military. the consequences would be even worse. 1999. but even without a clear precedent the grim consequences can be foreseen. Within Russia. nearly all of which makes some claim to sovereignty. Foreign Affairs. So far. would poison the environment of much of Europe and Asia. As the central government finds itself unable to force its will beyond Moscow (if even that far). Chechnya’s successful revolt against Russian control inspired similar movements for autonomy and independence throughout the country. it is not at all clear which side the military would support.krais. Just as the sheer brutality of the last Russian civil war laid the basis for the privations of Soviet communism. If these rebellions spread and Moscow responds with force. the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at best. Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. Most alarming is the real possibility that the violent disintegration of Russia could lead to a loss of control over its nuclear arsenal. Meanwhile. Armed struggles in Russia could easily spill into its neighbors.Russian Economy Russian economic decline causes civil war—escalates and goes nuclear. A major power like Russia—even though in decline—does not suffer civil war quietly or alone. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show. In the Soviet days civilian rule kept the powerful armed forces in check. Three-quarters of them already have their own constitutions. and medical care.[1] He specializes in international politics and security issues. Newly enhanced ties between military units and local authorities pose another danger. making weapons and supplies available to a wide range of antiAmerican groups and states. No nuclear state has ever fallen victim to civil war. Professor of International Relations and Vice Dean for Undergraduate Education at Johns Hopkins University. Reformers tout privatization as the country's cure-all. civil war is likely. Moscow’s already weak grip on nuclear sites will be slacken. the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. food.two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning less than $ 70 a month). andoblast s grow ever more independent in a system that does little to keep them together. Last printed 9/4/2009 07:00:00 PM 11 . David 99 Steven David. If war erupts. in scores of sites scattered throughout the country. Massive flows of refugees would pour into central and western Europe. economic deterioration will be a prime cause . even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience. Russia's 89 republics. If internal war does strike Russia. With the economy collapsing. it reached 9.personal friendships between government leaders and military commanders. Strong ethnic bonds promoted by shortsighted Soviet policies may motivate nonRussians to secede from the Federation. Draftees serve closer to home. what little civilian control remains relies on an exceedingly fragile foundation -.000 nuclear weapons and the raw material for tens of thousands more. however. Lexis. ten years ago.Russia International CP DDI 2011 1 1NC Shell. power devolves to the periphery. the consequences for the United States and Europe will be severe. Soldiers grow ever more dependent on local governments for housing. Damage from the fighting. since the structure of the Russian Federation makes it virtually certain that regional conflicts will continue to erupt.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. From 1989 to the present. Divining the military's allegiance is crucial. Were a conflict to emerge between a regional power and Moscow. Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. and wages. increasing the risk that disgruntled generals may enter the political fray and feeding the resentment of soldiers who dislike being used as a national police force. Twenty. An embattled Russian Federation might provoke opportunistic attacks from enemies such as China. A new emphasis on domestic missions has created an ideological split between the old and new guard in the military leadership. Russia retain some 20. a second civil war might produce another horrific regime. housing. the government has managed to prevent the loss of any weapons or much material. republics feel less and less incentive to pay taxes to Moscow when they receive so little in return. But with the Communist Party out of office. In a society where. Drastic cuts in spending mean inadequate pay. Such dispersal of nuclear weapons represents the greatest physical threat America now faces. the morale of Russian soldiers has fallen to a dangerous low. however. And it is hard to think of anything that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war. but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life. particularly attacks on nuclear plants. and new laws have increased local control over the armed forces.

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