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Morgan Securities LLC April 21, 2011
Frontier Markets Day Highlights Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam
J.P. Morgan organized a one-day seminar – “A New Frontier: Looking Beyond the Traditional Markets” – on April 14 in Washington D.C. For Mongolia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, discussions were held with IMF officials, investors and J.P. Morgan research. The key take-aways from the panels are summarized below.
Sri Lanka: Building on Reforms to Reach Post-Conflict Potential
Since the long-running civil war came to an end in 2009, Sri Lanka has seen sizable inflows amid a consolidation of political power. The structure of the economy is changing in fundamental ways. For example, a major southern port has just reopened, which could provide a lower cost alternative to Singapore. However, for the economy’s potential to be realized, there needs to be a significantly higher level of investment than the country has historically achieved. The overburdened public sector cannot do it alone, so policies will need to be put in place to increase private sector investment. Sri Lanka’s fiscal deficit is high, but the government’s medium-term goal is to lower it to 5% of GDP. In the past, the Board of Investment was extremely generous in granting tax exemptions, creating the current situation in which very few individuals pay taxes and almost no corporate income tax is collected. The priority is on simplifying the tax code and removing ad hoc distortions. Expenditures are generally disciplined. Sri Lanka’s debt dynamics are solid. The government has indicated that it plans more sovereign external debt issuance in order to retire more expensive external debt. Inflation and its management are a challenge. The current mentality at the CBSL favors targeting money growth and not inflation and, therefore, credibility is low. Rate hikes would provide an important signal to the market. The small increase in reserve requirements indicates some progress on this front. In terms of the exchange rate, it is not clear that it is fundamentally misaligned.
Vietnam: Navigating the Policy Maze in a High-Growth Environment
Vietnam’s economic growth continues to be high, but macroeconomic instability is the focus. The successful stimulus to avoid a growth slowdown during the global financial crisis only served to heighten macro volatility, with credit growth, debt levels, fiscal deficits all accelerating. Resolution 11, announced on February 24, marks an important step in reducing macroeconomic volatility. Key components of Resolution 11 include: the lowering of the credit growth target for 2011 to below 20%; proactive use of interest rates to rein in inflation (repo rate raised to 13%); a more flexible FX rate; freezing 10% of non-wage current spending; re-prioritizing investment projects, including the reduction of SOE investment; and the lowering of the fiscal deficit for 2011 to below 5%. Whether or not policymakers are serious about implementation remains to be seen. Note that FX reserves have been about flat since January and prospects for rebuilding reserves look promising. Fundamentally, however, locals still have little confidence holding VND-denominated assets.
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described as “if you target it. Growth prospects. the command mentality of policymakers. with the per capita income of Mongolia’s 2. given the structural tailwinds it has behind it. while in the big banks credit quality (for example..” needs to evolve. Mongolia must work at avoiding the “resource curse” and give space to the private sector to develop other areas of the economy. faced with growthfriendly government and business pressure. Vinashin may be an outlier in terms of the extent of its diversification outside of its core business. so governance needs to be improved.com Longer-run challenges have also yet to be addressed. The IMF stand-by program worked to perfection. Mongolia has macro room to make some mistakes as it manages very strong expected growth over the next several years. are now solidly above US$2. Fiscal spending has been high. small banks need to be restructured. Mongolia: Potential Strengths and Pitfalls of Commodityled Growth Mongolia’s economy has recovered from the severe downturn in 2009 and now its key challenge is to avoid overheating.A. but other SOEs were encouraged to do the same. GDP growth in 2011 should be around 25%. it will be achieved. 2 April 21. government policies should not focus on feeding growth any further. That said. and is expected to account for 3-5% of the global output of copper. cross holdings) and SOE control are issues. The sharp decline in global copper prices hit Mongolia hard. which induces overheating risks. 2011 . However. resulting in a front-loaded. both in the short and the long run. light-conditionality package from the IMF.fernandez@jpmorgan. FX reserves. With mining employing only 3-4% of the labor force. are bright. Singapore David FernandezAC (65) 6882-2461 david. while credit is recovering.Emerging Markets Research JPMorgan Chase Bank N.000 by 2016. In the financial sector. such that it was completed successfully at the end of 2010. With underlying inflation strong. possibly earlier. The Fiscal Responsibility Law sets out a clear framework on debt and deficit targets to be effective in 2013. and strong exports are producing a similarly strong rise in consumer goods imports. The Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine will begin production in 2013. Inflation is Mongolia’s Achilles heel. the central bank has been very slow to hike rates.5 billion in early 2009. combined with a rebound in export prices.000 currently to US$8.7 million people expected to rise from around US$2. with prices historically being extremely volatile. In general.0 billion. which were down to US$0. The Tavan Tolgoi coking coal mine may eventually be even more economically valuable.
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