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Environmental scanning is one component of the global environmental analysis.

Environmental monitoring, environmental forecasting and environmental assessment complete the global environmental analysis. Environmental scanning refers to the macro environment.The global environment refers to the macro environment which comprises industries, markets, companies, clients and competitors. Consequently, there exist corresponding analyses on the micro-level. Suppliers, customers and competitors representing the micro environment of a company are analyzed within the industry analysis.[1] Environmental scanning can be defined as ‘the study and interpretation of the political, economic, social and technological events and trends which influence a business, an industry or even a total market’.[2] The factors which need to be considered for environmental scanning are events, trends, issues and expectations of the different interest groups. Issues are often forerunners of trend breaks. A trend break could be a value shift in society, a technological innovation that might be permanent or a paradigm change. Issues are less deep-seated and can be 'a temporary short-lived reaction to a social phenomenon'.[3] A trend can be defined as an ‘environmental phenomenon that has adopted a structural character’.[4] Scribd Upload a Document þÿ Search Documents Explore

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Download this Document for Free ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING TECHNIQUES Environmental scanning is usually used at the start of a futures project. Itaims at broad exploration of all major trends, issues, advancements,e v e n t s a n d i d e a s a c r o s s a w i d e r a n g e o f a c t i v i t i e s . Information isc o l l e c t e d f r o m m a n y d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s , s u c h a s n e w s p a p e r s , magazines, Internet, television, conferences, reports, and also science-f i c t i o n b o o k s . V a r i o u s t o o l s a n d m e t h o d o l o g i e s a r e u s e d b y l a r g e corporations to systematically scope their external environment. Delphi method The Delphi method is a very popular technique used in Futures Studies. It wasdeveloped by Gordon and Helmer in 1953 at RAND . I t c a n b e d e f i n e d a s a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process iseffective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complexproblem.It uses the iterative, independent questioning of a panel of experts to assessthe timing, probability, significance and implications of factors, trends andevents in the relation to the problem being considered. Panelists are notbrought together but individually questioned in rounds. After the initial round,t h e p a n e l i s t s a r e g i v e n l i s t s o f a n o n y m o u s a n s w e r s f r o m o t h e r p a n e l i s t s which they can use to refine their own views. Scenario planning Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in theFutures Studies. Government planners, corporate strategists and militaryanalysts use them in order to aid decision-making. The term scenario wasintroduced into planning and decision-making by Herman Kahn in connectionwith military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s.It can be defined as a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world,o n e s u f f i c i e n t l y v i v i d t h a t a p l a n n e r c a n c l e a r l y s e e a n d

m a k i n g p e o p l e a w a r e o f u n c e r t a i n t i e s a n d o p e n i n g u p t h e i r i m a g i n a t i o n a n d i n i t i a t i n g l e a r n i n g processes. most events and trends are interdependent in some ways. Trend analysis Trend analysis is one of the most often used methods in forecasting.Cross-impact analysis provides an analytical approach to the probabilities of an element in a forecast set. Short term forecasting seems quite simple. and it helps to assess probabilities in view of judgments about potential interactions between those elements. t h e s e a r e a t l a r g e concerned with social.m a i n l y b a s e d o n s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a .One of the key strengths of the scenario process is its influence on the way of thinking of its participants. Simulation and modeling Simulation and modeling are computer-based tools developed to represent reality . i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e s .A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future. developed.In the quantitative trend analysis data is plotted along a time axis. It involves analysis of two groups of trends: quantitative. usually within the model.As it is well known. Cross-impact analysis The method was developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in 1966 inan attempt to answer a question whether perceptions of how future eventsmay interact with each other can be used in forecasting. so that asimple curve can be established. in which the focus is placed on one possible future. but a plausible descriptiono f w h a t m i g h t h a p p e n . The main purpose of simulation is to discern what would really happen in the real world if certainconditions. T h e y a r e w i d e l y u s e d t o a n a l y s e b e h a v i o u r s a n d t o u n d e r s t a n d processes. imitated by the model. A becomes more complex when the trend is extrapolated further into thefuture. institutional. They assist in selection of s t r a t e g i e s . It aimsto observe and register the past performance of a certain factor and project itinto the future. . Models a l l o w d e m o n s t r a t i o n o f p a s t c h a n g e s a s w e l l a s t h e examination of various transformations and their impact on each other andother considered factors. is altered towards the balanced thinking about a number of possible alternative futures.c o m p r e h e n d t h e problems. In simulation some aspects of reality areduplicated or reproduced. as the number of dynamic forces that can change direction of thet r e n d i n c r e a s e s . They can help to understand the connections between factors and events andt o e x a m i n e t h e i r d y n a m i c s . which can change the projected pattern. S c e n a r i o s a r e l i k e s t o r i e s b u i l t a r o u n d c a r e f u l l y constructed plots based on trends and events. challenges and opportunities that such an environment wouldpresent. S i m u l a t i o n i s a p r o c e s s t h a t r e p r e s e n t s a structure and change of a system. Environmental Scanning Techniques Download this Document for FreePrintMobileCollectionsReport Document Info and Rating dvkris Share & Embed Related Documents PreviousNext 1. T h i s f o r m o f s i m p l e t r e n d e x t r a p o l a t i o n h e l p s t o d i r e c t attention towards the forces. a n d q u a l i t a t i v e . organizational and political patterns.

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