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PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION Suppose a coin is tossed. The toss may result in the occurrence of 'Head' or in the occurrence of 'Tail'. Here, the chances of head and tail are equal*. In other words, the probability of occurrence of head is ½ and the probability of occurrence of tail is ½ Thus, Probability is a numerical measure which indicates the chance of occurrence. There are three systematic approaches to the study of probability. They are 1. The classical approach 2. The empirical approach. 3. The axiomatic approach. Each of these approaches has its own merits and demerits. Chance has a part to play in almost all activities. In every such activity, there is indefiniteness. For example, 1. 2. 3. A new-born child may be male or female. A stone aimed at a mango on a tree may hit it or it may not. A student who takes P.U.C. examination may score any mark Between 0 and 100.

In the midst of such indefiniteness, predictions are made. This necessitates a systematic study of probabilistic happenings.

Probability defined The probability of a given event is an expression of likelihood or chance of occurrence of an event. A probability is a number which ranges from 0 to 1. Zero for an event cannot occur and 1 for an event certain occurs. Terminology Before discussing procedure for calculating probability it is under different approaches. It is necessary to define certain terms as given below I. RANDOM EXPERIMENT

 Random experiment is an experiment which may not result in the same outcome when repeated under the same conditions.  It is an experiment which does not have a unique outcome.

3. An event which has only one outcome is an ELEMENTARY EVENT OR SAMPLE EVENT. This is a finite sample space. Here.. It is the event that the toss results in two tails. A is a simple event. II. Here. While tossing two coins simultaneously. For example.  The outcomes of the random experiment (elements of the sample space) are called sample points or outcomes or cases. 2. A is a compound event. A sample space with infinite number of outcomes is an infinite sample space. Ex3. 2. Ex1. Ex2.6} is an events. This is a finite sample space. The experiment of 'Toss of a coin' is a random experiment. An event which does not contains any outcome is a null event (impossible event). Ex. Ex. It is denoted by Φ.This is an infinite sample space. It is the event that the throw results in an even number.}. 2.  A sample space with finite number of outcomes is a finite sample space. An event which may or may not occur. While performing a certain random experiment is known as random experiment. . the sample space is S = {1.. While throwing a die. the sample space is S = {HH. Here. 1. It is so because when a coin is tossed the result may be 'Head' or it may be 'Tail'. 4. An event which contains all the outcomes is equal to the sample and it is called sure event or certain event. C etc.2. The experiment of 'Drawing a card randomly from a pack of playing cards' is a random experiment. A={TT} is an event. TH. B. EVENT Even is a subset of the sample space. III. Let the number of tosses be noted.. An event which has more than outcome is a compound event. TT}. While tossing two coins.1. Events are denoted by A. Consider the toss of a coin successively until a head is obtained. Here. 4. 6}. 5. A={2. SAMPLE SPACE  The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is the Sample space. the result of the draw may be any one of the 52 cards.  The sample space is denoted by S. 3. HT. the sample space is S= {1.4. While throwing a die.

A is the event that throw result in an odd number. COMPLEMENT OF AN EVENT Let A be an event. UNION OF EVENTS. It is the event constituted by the outcomes which are not favourable to A. While tossing two coins simultaneously.6}. SUB-EVENT.The outcomes which belong to an event are said to be favourable to that event.4.6}. A is the event that throw does not result in an even number. Then. event B is sub-event of event A. 2. Ex1.6} and B = {2}.3. its complement is A = {1. Definition: Union of two or more events is the event of occurrence of at least one of these events. While throwing a die. Then. That is. Here. While throwing a die.4 and 6.4.4. Let A and B be two events such that event A occurs whenever event B occurs. Then. their union is AB C = {2. Their union AB is the event of occurrence of two heads or two heads or two tails. B  A. The complement of A is denoted by A or Ā or Ac.6}. B = {3.6} has three favourable outcomes. Here. their union is AB = {HH. B is a sub-event of event A. let A = {2.3.5}.6} be three events. namely.4 or 6. Thus. let A = {2.4. That is. A is the event of occurrence of two heads and B is the event of occurrence of two tails.5.5. The event happens whenever the experiment results in a favourable outcomes . the event does not happen While throwing a die. A is the event that throw result in an even number. While throwing a die. Where the throw results in 2. Otherwise. Complement of A is the event of non-occurrence of A. let A = {HH} and B = {TT} be two events. Ex2. INTERSECTION OF EVENTS .4. the event A = {2. Then.6} and C = {4. union of two events A and B is the event of occurrence of at least one of them. If A = {2. event A occurs. The union of A&B is denoted by AB or A+B or AorB. TT}. Here.

3} are equally likely. That is. 1.4. B = {3. Ex.6}.5.HT. the events A={2. the sample space S = {1. It should be noted that intersection of mutually exclusive events is a null event.6} and C = {4. the result cannot be Head as well as Tail. Then.5} and C = {1} are mutually exclusive. EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS (Equiprobable events) Two or more events are equally likely if they have equal chance of occurrence.TH} be two events. Ex.6}. 5}&C={ 1. equally likely events are such that none of them has greater chance of occurrence than the others. 4. their intersection is AB = {HH}. Ex. B = {1. Then. While throwing a die. Ex2. If A is an event. That is. B= {3. let A = {HH.TT} B = {HH. their intersection is ABC = {6}. the events A = {2.6} be three events. While tossing two coins. Intersection of two events A and B is the event of occurrence of both of them. 4. The intersection of A and B is denoted by AB or AB or A and B.3. the occurrence of any of these events totally excludes the occurrence of the other events. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur together. A and A' are mutually exclusive.4.2. MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS (Disjoint events) Two or more events are mutually exclusive if only one of them can occur at a time. While throwing a fair die.Intersection of two or more events is the event of simultaneous occurrence of all these events. A sample space is called an equiprobable space if the outcomes are equally likely. Thus. the outcomes 'Head' and 'Tail' are equally likely. 1.2. While tossing a fair coin. While tossing a coin. let A = {2. 2. 6} of throw of a fair die is equiprobable space because the six outcomes are equally likely. the outcomes 'Head1 and 'Tail' are mutually exclusive because when the coin is tossed once. Ex1. While throwing a die. 6}. EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS (Exhaustive set of events) .2. For instance. 5. Ex. 3.

5.2. That is. if any one of these outcomes is leftout.P(A) =m n Here. Then.A set of events is exhaustive if one" or the other of the events in the set occurs whenever the experiment is conducted.1. While throwing a die. mutually exclusive and exhaustive. While throwing a die. 0 < P(A) < 1. the least possible value of m is 0. And so. (ii) The number of outcomes n is finite. Let m of these outcomes be favourable to an event A. Then. Proof: Let a random experiment have n equally likely.4. That is. THE CLASSICAL APPROACH CLASSICAL (MATHEMATICAL.6} together are exhaustive. 6}. Ex. mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes. Also. PRIORI) DEFINITION Let a random experiment have n equally likely. 6} and C = {1. probability of A is — P(A) = Number of favourable outcomes Total number of outcomes =m n Limitations of classical definition: This definition is applicable only when (i) The outcomes are equally likely. the remaining five outcomes are not exhaustive. 0  m  n. 0 m n   n n n  0  p ( A)  1 . Let m of these outcomes be favourable to event A. mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes. the six outcomes together are exhaustive. events A = {2. Ex. the highest possible value of m is n. the set of events exhausts all the outcomes of the experiment The union of exhaustive events is equal to the sample space. RESULT 1 P(A) is a value between 0 and 1. But here.B = {3.

P(A'). That is.P(A). That is. . RESULT 2 P(A') = 1 . P(A') = 1 .P(A).P(A'). Proof: In a random experiment with n equally likely. P(A) is a value between 0 and 1. P(A) = 1 . Therefore. P(A) = 1 . mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes.Thus. Thus. if m outcomes are favourable to event A. the remaining (n-m) outcomes are favourable to the complementary event A'.