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The Wind Power Report

Seventh Edition, 2010

ABS Energy Research 2010

The Wind Power Report


Seventh Edition, 2010
Introduction
This report provides an outline of the world wind energy industry and market, with market
surveys of each of 5 major markets and 21 intermediate markets, together with national
policies and support plans and incentives. Analysis of the manufacturing base, supply chain,
wind power developers and owners.Historical analysis from 1990 and forecasts of capacity
to 2012, with forecasts to 2020 for the major markets. National targets and incentives are
listed. Factors affecting wind power are outlined and crucial issues such as variability and
intermittency, dispatchability, capacity factors and capacity credits are discussed and assessed.
Outline of the report:*please see table of contents for further details

The development of wind energy: the market in 2009


The future of wind power, 2009 to 2012
Assessment of factors affecting wind power; terminology, issues and the operational experience of the most experienced wind power operators
National policies for renewable energy targets, support mechanisms, RPS policy
and feed-in tariffs
National wind power markets comprehensive surveys of the 5 market leaders, survey of the 21 intermediate wind power markets, brief profiles of 22 new entrants
Wind Industry Supply Chain- vertical integration, supply chain in the electrotechnical industry, raw material, lead times, turbine production capacity, components balance of plant, tire 1 and tier 2 rotor blades, gear boxes, bearings, cast
iron and forged components, towers, transformers
O&M issues and delays
The rare earths supply crisis
Weather forecasting
Energy storage
Development of wind turbine size
Wind Farm Developers and Owners
Manufacturing Base
Off-Shore Wind Power
Promising technologies

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Executive Summary
2009 was a record year for offshore wind investment, which ABS feels is unwarranted given
the major bottlenecks in the offshore supply chain a lack of offshore vessels and subsea
cabling. In the onshore sector there are no immediate supply chain bottlenecks. However,
the growing trend towards large scale turbines may be slowed somewhat in 2010 due to the
logistics of transporting large, bulky turbines and the high costs involved. Additionally, larger
turbines require the use of expensive carbon fibres and specialised plastics to replace cheap
glass fibre used in small scale turbines. Supplies of carbon fibres may hit a bottleneck by
2017.
With the sector entering the mature phase, there is a greater pressure towards the standardisation of components especially because of the sectors high operating and maintenance costs. To reduce high O&M costs many developers are opting to purchase gearless
rather than geared turbines. However, gearless turbines use neodymium, which hit the
headlines recently due to concerns that Chinas export policy for rare earth metals would
lead to near term supply shortages.
On the plus side, for European and American manufacturers, competition from manufacturers shipping products from India and China is unlikely to affect their dominance in local
markets. Due to the high costs of transporting turbines and towers, and uncertainty over
whether carbon emissions reductions will apply to the shipping sector, localised supply
chains will be the future of the sector. Complete supply chains have already formed in North
America, Europe and Asia.
Overall 2010 is expected to be a good year for the wind sector, especially in the China, the
USA and Eastern Europe.
Lack of access to financing and poor grid infrastructure still remains as the biggest barrier to
project development.

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ABS Intelligence: Market Highlights


2009
The Chinese and American markets performed well, along with some emerging markets notably Mexico, Canada, Chile, Poland and a few other Eastern European countries.
More mature markets of Japan and the EU experienced slow, and in some cases no growth
at all.
Repowering happened at a slower rate than anticipated because of height restrictions on
planning permission for some sites, and most turbines are not yet past the 15 year mark.
Offshore wind took off; however, no measures were in place to ease bottlenecks in the
supply chain mainly an anticipated shortage of all types of vessels (installation, O&M etc.)
and subsea cabling. No supply shortage is likely for onshore wind sector.
2010 and Beyond
Continued growth in the sector is expected with gearless turbines performing well particularly in the offshore sector, due to their lower operation and maintenance costs.
Several countries may experience slowed growth due to the removal of government incentives, stricter planning or approval regulations or an uncertain political climate Canada
(non-renewal of EcoEnergy), Greece, Spain (introduction of Registry) etc., with the anticipation of less generous subsidies in Italy and other European countries in the future.
Growth in Eastern Europe, South American and North African countries is expected but
concerns about grid capacity will mean that many targets for 2015 will not be met.
Key markets for growth include Finland, Morocco and Turkey.
Manufacturers will experience moderate growth. Several manufacturers have unused stock
from 2010 and will not actually manufacture that much new capacity. REpower may perform well with its 5 MW turbine along with Chinese companies producing large, certified
turbines.
Chinese manufacturers are likely to enter the export market in a big way because there has
been a shift from licensing technology with export restrictions to forming joint venture and
conducting in-house research.
This year may see some turbine manufacturers acquiring offshore suppliers (especially
cabling and vessel manufacturers), and developers acquiring more offshore companies to
ensure security of supply.

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More repowering is expected in Europe as there is a significant international market for


used turbines and limited on land sites with good wind resources.
Barriers to Development
Growth in demand for gearless turbines in 2015 and beyond will be hampered by shortage
of the rare earth metal neodymium. China may further restrict exports in the next year or
two because of domestic needs, and government initiatives worldwide to source local or
international supplies will not bridge the supply gap. It is estimated that it will take 15 years
before a decent US rare earth metal industry is in place.
A supply shortage of carbon fibres may hit the sector from 2017 onwards - carbon fibres are
used to reinforce the blades of large turbines.
But, by far, the biggest barrier to development is a poor grid infrastructure. In some Eastern
European countries the grid system cant cope with any more than 3 GW of installed capacity without significant investments in the infrastructure e.g. Poland (3GW maximum), Czech
Republic (1.2 GW) and Hungary (330 MW). This problem applies to most wind markets. Even
when the grid has sufficient capacity of installed projects, intermittency is a huge issue
despite denials by the wind industry. Last year there was almost a blackout in Texas because
of a sudden loss of wind. In Spain wind turbine had to be switched off due to over-supply in
the night at time of minimum demand and the spot price of electricity fell to zero.
With the exception of chemical storage of heat for the solar sector, few of the energy
storage technologies are close to commercialisation. Pumped hydro storage looks the most
promising, especially as there are over a hundred pumped storage facilities in operation in
China.
Turbine Size
The maximum turbine size in operation is 6.5 MW onshore and a 20 MW turbine has been
developed. Clipper is planning to manufacturer its 7.5 MW turbine in 2012, with both
Clipper and Sway developing a 10 MW prototype.
Although, very large turbines are unlikely to be commercially viable because they require
special reinforced materials, bespoke lifting vehicles and the logistics of transporting the
turbines will eventually hamper growth in turbine size.
ABS Intelligence Projects the Following
Slowed growth in developing megawatt turbines with efforts focused on streamlining
products- reducing the number of parts, increasing efficiency etc, because of the high
operation costs of gearboxes and turbine parts.

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More M&As to secure local supply chains for wind turbine manufacturers.
Expect growth in cold weather countries following the development of cold resilient turbines, Finland and Russia, for example.

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 41
Wind power development in 2009 ................................ ................................ .............. 41
Wind power development in 2010 ................................ ................................ .............. 42
Outlook to 2012 ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 42
Offshore developments to 2012 ................................ ................................ .................. 43
Long term outlook: 2020. ................................ ................................ ............................ 43
Renewables subsidies................................ ................................ ................................ .. 44
Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 44
Developers ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 45
Turbine technology ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 45
1

The development of wind energy: the market in 2010............................................... 47


1.1

Market value................................ ................................ ................................ .... 51

1.2

Regional Analysis ................................ ................................ ............................. 51


1.2.1

Europe ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 51

1.2.2

North America................................ ................................ .......................... 52

1.2.3

Latin America ................................ ................................ ........................... 53

1.2.4

Asia ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 53

1.2.5

Pacific................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 53

1.2.6

Africa and Middle East ................................ ................................ ............. 53

The future market for wind power; until 2012 ........................................................... 59

An assessment of factors affecting wind power ......................................................... 66


3.1

Terminology................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 66


3.1.1

Variations of demand................................ ................................ ............... 66

3.1.2

Base load................................ ................................ ................................ .. 67

3.1.3

Peak load ................................ ................................ ................................ . 67

3.1.4

Intermediate load ................................ ................................ .................... 68

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3.2

3.1.5

Intermittency and variability ................................ ................................ .... 68

3.1.6

Capacity factor ................................ ................................ ......................... 69

3.1.7

Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)................................ ................................ . 70

3.1.8

Capacity credit ................................ ................................ ......................... 70

3.1.9

Spinning reserve................................ ................................ ....................... 71

Issues for wind power................................ ................................ ...................... 72


3.2.1

Grid balancing ................................ ................................ .......................... 72

3.2.2

Grid extension................................ ................................ .......................... 73

3.2.3

Storage................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 73

3.2.4

Capacity credit ................................ ................................ ......................... 73

3.2.5

Mis-match of supply and demand ................................ ............................ 74

3.2.6

Load following................................ ................................ .......................... 74

3.2.7

Dispersion ................................ ................................ ................................ 74

3.2.8

Inadequacy of weather forecasting ................................ .......................... 74

3.2.9

Spinning reserve/back-up................................ ................................ ......... 74

3.2.10 Wake effects ................................ ................................ ............................ 74


3.3

The operational experiences of wind power ................................ .................... 75


3.3.1

E.On Netz Wind Report, 2004................................ ................................ ... 75

3.3.2

Grid balancing ................................ ................................ .......................... 80

3.3.3

Grid balancing congestion ................................ ................................ ........ 80

3.3.4

E.On Netz Wind Report, 2005................................ ................................ ... 81

3.3.5

E.On conclusions about wind power................................ ......................... 81

3.3.6

Western Denmark 2005 ................................ ................................ ........... 82

3.3.7

ESB report in Ireland 2004................................ ................................ ........ 83

3.3.8

USA experience ................................ ................................ ........................ 83

3.3.9

Spain ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 84

3.3.10 ENTSO-E ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 85


3.3.11 Reduction in carbon emissions................................ ................................ . 86
3.3.12 EU legislation, April 2009................................ ................................ .......... 86

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3.3.13 Building consent times ................................ ................................ ............. 92


3.4

THE WAY FORWARD ................................ ................................ ........................ 93


3.4.1

3.1. Investing in the future competitiveness of the EU wind energy


industry................................ ................................ ................................ .. 93

3.4.2

3.2. Adopting a more strategic, coordinated approach to offshore


developments ................................ ................................ ........................ 96

3.4.3

3.3. Maximising the environmental benefits of offshore wind.................. 97

3.4.4

3.4. Integrating large-scale offshore wind in the grid of the future........... 98

3.4.5

Copenhagen................................ ................................ ............................. 99

3.4.6

Targets ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 99

3.4.7

The Flexible Mechanisms ................................ ................................ ....... 100

3.4.8

Technology transfer ................................ ................................ ............... 101

National policies for renewable energy.................................................................... 102


4.1

Renewable energy targets ................................ ................................ ............. 102

4.2

Support mechanisms for renewables ................................ ............................. 103

4.3

The evolution of RPS Policy in the United States ................................ ............ 131

4.4

Comparison of feed-in tariffs and RPS................................ ............................ 133

4.5

Europe the EU Renewable Energy Directive ................................ ................ 133

4.6

Investor confidence, price, and policy cost................................ ..................... 133

4.7

Effectiveness................................ ................................ ................................ .. 134

4.8

Innovation and technology diversity ................................ .............................. 134

4.9

Ownership structure ................................ ................................ ...................... 134

4.10

Conclusion ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 134

4.11

Feed-in tariffs in the United States................................ ................................ . 135

National wind power markets and support plans: Major markets ........................... 137
5.1

United States ................................ ................................ ................................ . 137


5.1.1

The start of wind power ................................ ................................ ......... 138

5.1.2

Market size and forecast ................................ ................................ ........ 139

5.1.3

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 154

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5.1.4

Intermittency ................................ ................................ ......................... 158

5.1.5

Grid Infrastructure ................................ ................................ ................. 158

5.1.6

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 159

5.1.7

Ownership of facilities................................ ................................ ............ 167

5.1.8

The US small wind market................................ ................................ ...... 170

5.1.9

Low speed wind technology ................................ ................................ ... 170

5.1.10 Cost of wind energy generation................................ .............................. 172


5.1.11 Technology development in the USA................................ ...................... 173
5.1.11.1

Making longer, stronger blades ................................ ................ 174

5.1.11.2

Designing taller towers ................................ ............................. 174

5.1.11.3

Building multi-megawatt turbines................................ ............. 175

5.1.12 Understanding turbulent wind patterns ................................ ................. 175


5.1.13 R&D ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 176
5.1.14 Government support................................ ................................ .............. 176
5.1.15 Production tax credits ................................ ................................ ............ 177
5.1.16 Investment tax credits................................ ................................ ............ 177
5.1.17 Property tax reductions................................ ................................ .......... 178
5.1.18 Accelerated depreciation ................................ ................................ ....... 178
5.1.19 Direct production incentives ................................ ................................ .. 178
5.1.20 Direct investment incentives (grants)................................ ..................... 178
5.1.21 Government subsidised loans ................................ ................................ 178
5.1.22 "Standard offer contracts" for small and distributed projects................. 179
5.1.23 Net metering or net billing ................................ ................................ ..... 179
5.1.24 Site prospecting, review and permitting................................ ................. 179
5.1.25 Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)................................ ....................... 179
5.1.26 Auctioned contracts ................................ ................................ ............... 179
5.1.27 Green marketing/pricing ................................ ................................ ........ 179
5.1.28 State mandates ................................ ................................ ...................... 180
5.1.29 The Utility Wind Integration Group ................................ ........................ 180

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5.1.30 UWIG members as of 14th April 2010 ................................ ..................... 180


5.1.31 Bills in Congress ................................ ................................ ..................... 183
5.2

China ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 186


5.2.1

Installed wind capacity................................ ................................ ........... 186

5.2.2

Future targets ................................ ................................ ........................ 188

5.2.3

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 188

5.2.4

Barriers to growth ................................ ................................ .................. 190

5.2.5

Present Status of Development................................ .............................. 191

5.2.6

Future development................................ ................................ ............... 192

5.2.7

Offshore wind power ................................ ................................ ............. 192

5.2.8

Renewable Energy Law 2006................................ ................................ .. 196

5.2.9

Chinese government wind development support................................ ... 197

5.2.10 Wind power concessions................................ ................................ ........ 197


5.2.11 Non-Concession tenders ................................ ................................ ........ 198
5.2.12 2008 amendment................................ ................................ ................... 198
5.2.13 2009 amendment................................ ................................ ................... 199
5.2.14 Feed-in tariffs................................ ................................ ......................... 200
5.2.15 Costs ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 200
5.2.16 Financing................................ ................................ ................................ 201
5.2.17 Foreign assistance ................................ ................................ .................. 201
5.2.18 Chinese manufacturing capability................................ ........................... 205
5.2.19 Medium and large wind turbines................................ ............................ 205
5.2.20 Chinese wind turbine companies................................ ............................ 206
5.2.20.1

Xinjiang Goldwind Co................................ ................................ 208

5.2.20.2

Sinovel Wind Co................................. ................................ ....... 209

5.2.20.3

Dongfang Electric Group ................................ ........................... 210

5.2.20.4

Other Chinese wind companies ................................ ................ 211

5.2.21 Micro and small wind turbines ................................ ............................... 211


5.2.22 Bearings ................................ ................................ ................................ . 212

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5.2.23 Blades ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 212


5.2.24 Gearboxes................................ ................................ .............................. 213
5.3

Germany................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 213


5.3.1

Market size and forecast ................................ ................................ ........ 214

5.3.2

Market share in Germany................................ ................................ ....... 215

5.3.3

Repowering trend ................................ ................................ .................. 215

5.3.4

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 217

5.3.5

Wind turbine size ................................ ................................ ................... 225

5.3.6

Regional distribution of wind turbines................................ .................... 227

5.3.7

Wind power and the German TSOs ................................ ........................ 231

5.3.8

Grid infracture................................ ................................ ........................ 233

5.3.9

Government support and R&D in Germany ................................ ............ 233

5.3.10 Stromeinspeisungsgesetz - Electricity Feed Law (EFL)............................. 234


5.3.11 Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz / EEG).... 234
5.3.12 Investment assistance ................................ ................................ ............ 236
5.3.13 Planning privileges ................................ ................................ ................. 236
5.3.14 250 Megawatt Programme................................ ................................ ..... 236
5.3.15 REISI - A new and further-reaching Information System based on ISEE
and WISY................................ ................................ .............................. 236
5.3.16 Technology area wind energy................................ ................................ . 236
5.3.17 Product information................................ ................................ ............... 236
5.3.18 Development of wind energy use in Germany................................ ........ 237
5.3.19 Operational results................................ ................................ ................. 237
5.3.20 External conditions of operation ................................ ............................ 237
5.3.21 Download of measured data ................................ ................................ .. 237
5.3.22 El Dorado ................................ ................................ ............................... 238
5.3.23 Regional incentives ................................ ................................ ................ 238
5.3.24 Research and Development (R&D) ................................ ......................... 238
5.3.25 Manufacturing Base ................................ ................................ ............... 238

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5.4

5.5

Spain................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 240


5.4.1

Future targets for wind power in Spain ................................ .................. 241

5.4.2

Onshore resources ................................ ................................ ................. 242

5.4.3

Offshore resources................................ ................................ ................. 245

5.4.4

Intermittancy ................................ ................................ ......................... 246

5.4.5

Manufacturing industry................................ ................................ .......... 248

5.4.6

Wind developers ................................ ................................ .................... 253

5.4.7

Wind turbine size ................................ ................................ ................... 255

5.4.8

Government support in Spain................................ ................................ . 255


5.4.8.1

R&D technology development ................................ .................. 255

5.4.8.2

Guaranteed market price................................ .......................... 256

5.4.8.3

Fixed tariff option ................................ ................................ ..... 257

5.4.8.4

Register ................................ ................................ .................... 257

5.4.8.5

Research projects ................................ ................................ ..... 257

India ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 258


5.5.1

Market size and forecast ................................ ................................ ........ 258

5.5.2

Future targets ................................ ................................ ........................ 262

5.5.3

Wind energy resources in India ................................ .............................. 262

5.5.4

Cost................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 264

5.5.5

R&D Technology development in India................................ ................... 265


5.5.5.1

5.5.6

The Centre for Wind Energy Technology (C-WET) ..................... 265

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 265


5.5.6.1

2009 developments ................................ ................................ .. 265

5.5.6.2

2010 developments ................................ ................................ .. 266

5.5.6.3

Renewable Portfolio Standard ................................ .................. 266

5.5.6.4

Grid infrastructure investment ................................ ................. 266

5.5.6.5

Proposed schemes................................ ................................ .... 266

5.5.6.6

MNES - Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources.............. 267

5.5.6.7

IREDA - Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd ..... 267

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5.5.7

5.5.6.8

Financial incentives and manufacturer benefits........................ 269

5.5.6.9

State incentives ................................ ................................ ........ 269

Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ............... 270


5.5.7.1

5.5.8

5.5.9
6

Suzlon................................ ................................ ....................... 275

Small wind turbine markets................................ ................................ .... 278


5.5.8.1

Wind Energy Producers Association (WINPRO) ......................... 278

5.5.8.2

Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association (IWTMA) ....... 278

Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 279

National wind power markets and support plans; Intermediate countries Europe ...................................................................................................................... 281
6.1

6.2

Austria ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 281


6.1.1

National renewable energy targets ................................ ........................ 284

6.1.2

Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 285

6.1.3

Market shares in Austria ................................ ................................ ........ 285

6.1.4

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 285

6.1.5

Wind Developers................................ ................................ .................... 286

Denmark................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 286


6.2.1

Market size and forecast ................................ ................................ ........ 288

6.2.2

Geographical dispersion of wind turbines in Denmark............................ 289

6.2.3

Production of electricity from wind turbines ................................ .......... 290

6.2.4

Wind turbine size and repowering................................ .......................... 291

6.2.5

Offshore projects ................................ ................................ ................... 294

6.2.6

Future targets in Denmark ................................ ................................ ..... 296

6.2.7

Interface with other renewables ................................ ............................ 296

6.2.8

Wind power ownership................................ ................................ .......... 297

6.2.9

The energy policy role of power companies ................................ ........... 298

6.2.10 Power companies' ownership of wind power ................................ ......... 298


6.2.11 Pricing for wind power ................................ ................................ ........... 298
6.2.12 Grid connection, grid reinforcement ................................ ...................... 299

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6.2.13 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 299


6.2.14 Wind generation structure ................................ ................................ ..... 299
6.2.15 R&D technology development in Denmark................................ ............. 300
6.2.15.1

The role of Risoe National Laboratory and others ..................... 300

6.2.15.2

The role of power companies in R&D................................ ........ 300

6.2.15.3

New concepts ................................ ................................ ........... 300

6.2.15.4

Government support ................................ ................................ 301

6.2.15.5

Funding Levels ................................ ................................ .......... 301

6.2.15.6

Ministry of Environment and Energys Energy Research


Programme (EFP)................................ ................................ ...... 301

6.2.15.7

Ministry of Environment and Energys Programme for


Development, Demonstration and Information on Renewable
Energy (UVE)................................ ................................ ............. 301

6.2.15.8

Priorities ................................ ................................ ................... 302

6.2.15.9

Legislation ................................ ................................ ................ 302

6.2.15.10 Windmill Law................................ ................................ ............ 302


6.2.15.11 Energy 21................................ ................................ .................. 302
6.2.15.12 Danish Energy Agency................................ ............................... 302
6.2.15.13 Electricity reform ................................ ................................ ...... 303
6.2.15.14 Export assistance ................................ ................................ ...... 303
6.2.15.15 Renewable Energy Island ................................ .......................... 303
6.2.15.16 Promotion of local initiatives ................................ .................... 303
6.2.16 Danish manufacturing base................................ ................................ .... 303
6.2.17 The Danish Wind Industry Association Members................................ .... 307
6.2.17.1

Blades................................ ................................ ....................... 307

6.2.17.2

Composites................................ ................................ ............... 308

6.2.17.3

Consulting and analysis................................ ............................. 309

6.2.17.4

Fans, cooling solutions and environmental control ................... 313

6.2.17.5

Electrical systems................................ ................................ ...... 313

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6.2.17.6

Energy companies................................ ................................ ..... 317

6.2.17.7

Engineering consultancy ................................ ........................... 317

6.2.17.8

Fall protection systems ................................ ............................. 318

6.2.17.9

Foundations................................ ................................ .............. 319

6.2.17.10 Generators ................................ ................................ ............... 319


6.2.17.11 Gearboxes ................................ ................................ ................ 319
6.2.17.12 Heat exchangers ................................ ................................ ....... 319
6.2.17.13 Hydraulics................................ ................................ ................. 320
6.2.17.14 Investments................................ ................................ .............. 321
6.2.17.15 Lighting systems ................................ ................................ ....... 321
6.2.17.16 Mechanical components................................ ........................... 322
6.2.17.17 Metal processing ................................ ................................ ...... 324
6.2.17.18 Nacelles ................................ ................................ .................... 326
6.2.17.19 Offshore ................................ ................................ ................... 327
6.2.17.20 Oil system and lubrication ................................ ........................ 329
6.2.17.21 Operation and maintenance ................................ ..................... 330
6.2.17.22 Other associations ................................ ................................ .... 330
6.2.17.23 Plastic processing................................ ................................ ...... 331
6.2.17.24 Project development ................................ ................................ 331
6.2.17.25 Service................................ ................................ ...................... 332
6.2.17.26 Servicelifts ................................ ................................ ................ 333
6.2.17.27 Software ................................ ................................ ................... 334
6.2.17.28 Surface treatment................................ ................................ ..... 334
6.2.17.29 Towers................................ ................................ ...................... 335
6.2.17.30 Training ................................ ................................ .................... 336
6.2.17.31 Transport and handling................................ ............................. 337
6.2.17.32 Wind turbines................................ ................................ ........... 339
6.3

France................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 339


6.3.1

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 340

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6.4

6.5

6.6

6.3.2

Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 341

6.3.3

Offshore wind power ................................ ................................ ............. 341

6.3.4

Size of turbines................................ ................................ ....................... 342

6.3.5

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 348

6.3.6

Domestic Production................................ ................................ .............. 348


6.3.6.1

Vergnet................................ ................................ ..................... 348

6.3.6.2

Other turbine manufacturers................................ .................... 348

6.3.7

Components and services................................ ................................ ....... 348

6.3.8

Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 349

Greece ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 349


6.4.1

Government Support ................................ ................................ ............. 350

6.4.2

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 352

6.4.3

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 353

6.4.4

Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 354

6.4.5

Size of wind turbines ................................ ................................ .............. 354

6.4.6

Manufacturing capability ................................ ................................ ....... 354

6.4.7

Wind farm operators and developers................................ ..................... 356

6.4.8

Research and Development................................ ................................ .... 360

Ireland ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 361


6.5.1

Regional development ................................ ................................ ........... 361

6.5.2

Offshore developments................................ ................................ .......... 362

6.5.3

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 365

6.5.4

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 366

6.5.5

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 367

6.5.6

Wind variability ................................ ................................ ...................... 368

6.5.7

Operators................................ ................................ ............................... 370

Italy................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 371


6.6.1

Government policy................................ ................................ ................. 372

6.6.2

Regional plans................................ ................................ ........................ 373

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6.6.3

Wind farms ................................ ................................ ............................ 374

6.6.4

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 375

6.6.5

Legal commitment to renewable energy ................................ ................ 375

6.6.6

Wind problems................................ ................................ ....................... 376

6.6.7

Italian manufacturers................................ ................................ ............. 377

6.6.8

Wind developers ................................ ................................ .................... 379

6.7

Netherlands ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 379


6.7.1

Offshore developments in the Netherlands................................ ............ 380

6.7.2

Regional distribution of wind farms................................ ........................ 382

6.7.3

National renewable energy targets ................................ ........................ 386

6.7.4

Repowering................................ ................................ ............................ 386

6.7.5

Government policies, financial incentives and market stimulation ......... 386

6.7.6

Developments in 2009 ................................ ................................ ........... 387

6.7.7

Developments in 2010 ................................ ................................ ........... 388

6.7.8

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 388

6.7.9

Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 389

6.8

Norway ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 389


6.8.1

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 391

6.8.2

Offshore wind power ................................ ................................ ............. 392

6.8.3

Wind power companies ................................ ................................ ......... 393

6.9

Poland ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 393


6.9.1

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 396

6.9.2

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 396

6.9.3

Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 399

6.9.4

Government initiatives................................ ................................ ........... 399

6.9.5

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 399

6.9.6

Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 399

6.10

Portugal ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 400

6.10.1 Renewables target ................................ ................................ ................. 401

Page 14 of 695

6.10.2 Geographical distribution of wind capacity................................ ............. 401


6.10.3 Offshore wind power ................................ ................................ ............. 406
6.10.4 Government support................................ ................................ .............. 407
6.10.5 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 407
6.10.6 Wind developers ................................ ................................ .................... 408
6.11

Sweden................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 410

6.11.1 Offshore wind power ................................ ................................ ............. 412


6.11.2 Government support................................ ................................ .............. 413
6.11.3 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 413
6.11.4 Wind developers ................................ ................................ .................... 414
6.12

Turkey................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 414

6.12.1 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 415


6.12.2 Onshore capacity ................................ ................................ ................... 416
6.12.3 Offshore wind ................................ ................................ ........................ 419
6.12.4 Grid infrastructure ................................ ................................ ................. 419
6.12.5 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 419
6.12.6 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 419
6.12.7 Government support................................ ................................ .............. 420
6.12.8 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 420
6.12.9 Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ............... 421
6.13

United Kingdom................................ ................................ ............................. 422

6.13.1 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 422


6.13.2 Offshore wind power ................................ ................................ ............. 430
6.13.3 Round 1................................ ................................ ................................ .. 431
6.13.4 Round 2................................ ................................ ................................ .. 432
6.13.5 Round 3................................ ................................ ................................ .. 434
6.13.6 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 440
6.13.7 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 441
6.13.8 Future targets ................................ ................................ ........................ 441

Page 15 of 695

6.13.9 Government support................................ ................................ .............. 443


6.13.10 Election ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 444
6.13.11 Grid extension................................ ................................ ........................ 445
6.13.12 Manufacturing Base ................................ ................................ ............... 446
6.13.12.1 Manufacturers of wind turbines >50kw ................................ .... 446
6.13.12.2 Turbine Components ................................ ................................ 446
6.13.13 Small System Suppliers................................ ................................ ........... 447
7

National wind power markets and support plans Intermediate countries


Asia Pacific................................................................................................................ 448
7.1

Australia ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 448


7.1.1

Wind power by state................................ ................................ .............. 449

7.1.2

Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 451

7.1.3

Government initiatives................................ ................................ ........... 451

7.1.4

State initiatives ................................ ................................ ...................... 452

7.1.5

Retail initiatives................................ ................................ ...................... 453

7.1.6

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 455

7.1.7

Certified Wind Farms Australia (CWFA) ................................ .................. 456

7.1.8

Recent developments................................ ................................ ............. 456

7.1.9

Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 456

7.1.10 Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ............... 456


7.1.11 Developers ................................ ................................ ............................. 456
7.1.12 Finance ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 457
7.2

Japan ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 457


7.2.1

Environmental and renewables policy................................ .................... 459

7.2.2

Technical issues................................ ................................ ...................... 459

7.2.3

Future target for wind power ................................ ................................ . 460

7.2.4

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 460

7.2.5

Government programmes ................................ ................................ ...... 461

7.2.6

Local authorities................................ ................................ ..................... 461

Page 16 of 695

7.2.7

Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ............... 461

7.2.8

Manufacturers market shares ................................ ............................... 462

7.2.9

Costs ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 462

7.2.10 Wind farm developments................................ ................................ ....... 463


7.2.11 R&D ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 463
7.2.12 Wind Farm Operators................................ ................................ ............. 463
7.3

Korea, ROK................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 465


7.3.1

Future targets ................................ ................................ ........................ 467

7.3.2

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 468

7.3.3

Local authorities................................ ................................ ..................... 468

7.3.4

R&D ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 468

7.3.5

Constraints to development................................ ................................ ... 468

7.3.6

Offshore wind ................................ ................................ ........................ 469

7.3.7

Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ............... 470

7.3.8

Ship builders ................................ ................................ .......................... 470

7.3.9

7.3.8.1

Hyundai ................................ ................................ .................... 470

7.3.8.2

Samsung ................................ ................................ ................... 471

7.3.8.3

Daewoo ................................ ................................ .................... 472

7.3.8.4

STX ................................ ................................ ........................... 472

Component manufacturers ................................ ................................ .... 473

7.3.10 Wind developers ................................ ................................ .................... 473


7.4

Taiwan ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 474


7.4.1

Onshore developments ................................ ................................ .......... 475

7.4.2

Offshore developments................................ ................................ .......... 476

7.4.3

Recent developments................................ ................................ ............. 476

7.4.4

Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 476

7.4.5

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 476

7.4.6

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 476

7.4.7

Manufacturing base ................................ ................................ ............... 477

Page 17 of 695

7.4.8
8

National wind power markets and support plans Intermediate countries


Africa ........................................................................................................................ 478
8.1

8.2

Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 477

Egypt ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 478


8.1.1

Future development................................ ................................ ............... 479

8.1.2

Government support................................ ................................ .............. 480

8.1.3

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 480

Morocco ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 481


8.2.1

Wind farms ................................ ................................ ............................ 482

8.2.2

Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 484

8.2.3

The Mediterranean Solar Plan................................ ................................ 486

8.2.4

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 487

8.2.5

Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 488

8.2.6

Costs ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 489

8.2.7

Recent developments................................ ................................ ............. 489

National wind power markets and support plans Intermediate countries Americas ................................................................................................................... 490
9.1

9.2

Brazil................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 490


9.1.1

Future wind developments ................................ ................................ .... 490

9.1.2

Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 491

9.1.3

Government promotion of renewables ................................ .................. 494

9.1.4

Government promotion of local manufacturers ................................ ..... 494

9.1.5

Costs ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 495

9.1.6

Future development................................ ................................ ............... 495

9.1.7

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 495

9.1.8

Wind developers ................................ ................................ .................... 496

Canada................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 497


9.2.1

Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 503

9.2.2

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 507

Page 18 of 695

9.2.3

R&D in Canada ................................ ................................ ....................... 509

9.2.4

Federal and Provincial government production incentive....................... 509

9.2.5

Proposed incentives ................................ ................................ ............... 509

9.2.6

Provincial incentives................................ ................................ ............... 509

9.2.7

Grid infrastructure ................................ ................................ ................. 511

9.2.8

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 511

9.2.9

Financials ................................ ................................ ............................... 513

9.2.10 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 514


10 Up and coming countries - Europe............................................................................ 516
10.1

Belgium................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 516

10.1.1 Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 516


10.2

Bulgaria................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 516

10.2.1 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 517


10.2.2 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 517
10.2.3 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 518
10.2.4 Financing................................ ................................ ................................ 518
10.3

Czech Republic................................ ................................ ............................... 518

10.3.1 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 519


10.3.2 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 520
10.3.3 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 520
10.3.4 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 520
10.3.5 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 522
10.4

Estonia................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 523

10.4.1 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 524


10.5

Finland................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 525

10.5.1 Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ . 529


10.5.2 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 529
10.5.3 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 529

Page 19 of 695

10.5.4 R&D ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 530


10.5.5 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 530
10.5.6 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 531
10.6

Hungary ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 531

10.6.1 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 532


10.6.2 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 532
10.7

Latvia ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 533

10.8

Lithuania................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 533

10.8.1 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 536


10.9

Romania ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 536

10.9.1 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 537


10.9.2 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 537
10.9.3 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 538
10.9.4 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 538
10.10 Russia ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 538
10.11 Ukraine ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 538
10.11.1 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 539
10.11.2 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 539
10.11.3 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 539
10.11.4 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 540
11 Up and coming countries Asia Pacific ....................................................................... 541
11.1

New Zealand................................ ................................ ................................ .. 541

11.1.1 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 541


11.1.2 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 544
11.1.3 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 545
11.1.4 Costs ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 545
11.1.5 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 545
11.1.6 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 546

Page 20 of 695

11.2

Vietnam ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 548

12 Up and coming countries - Africa.............................................................................. 549


12.1

Cape Verde ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 549

12.2

Ethiopia ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 549

12.3

Kenya................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 550

12.3.1 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 551


12.3.2 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 551
12.4

Senegal ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 552

12.5

South Africa ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 553

12.5.1 Future developments ................................ ................................ ............. 554


12.5.2 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 554
12.6

Tunisia ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 554

12.7

Other countries................................ ................................ .............................. 554

13 Up and coming countries - Americas ........................................................................ 556


13.1

Argentina................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 557

13.1.1 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 557


13.1.2 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 557
13.1.3 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 557
13.2

Chile ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 557

13.2.1 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 558


13.2.2 Recent developments................................ ................................ ............. 558
13.2.3 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 559
13.2.4 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 559
13.2.5 Developers................................ ................................ ............................. 559
13.3

Mexico................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 559

13.3.1 Wind resources ................................ ................................ ...................... 560


13.3.2 Barriers to development ................................ ................................ ........ 560
13.3.3 Government incentives ................................ ................................ .......... 561

Page 21 of 695

13.3.4 Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ....................... 561


14 Up and coming countries - Middle East .................................................................... 562
15 Wind industry supply chain ...................................................................................... 563
15.1

The wind industry supply chain................................ ................................ ...... 563

15.2

Vertical integration ................................ ................................ ........................ 564

15.3

Background to the supply chain in the electro-technical industry .................. 566

15.4

Raw materials ................................ ................................ ................................ 567

15.5

Lead times ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 572

15.6

Wind turbine production capacity................................ ................................ .. 572

15.7

Components - Balance of plant, Tier 1 and Tier 2 capacity ............................. 573

15.8

Rotor blades ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 574

15.9

Gear boxes................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 575

15.10 Bearings................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 575


15.11 Cast iron and forged components ................................ ................................ .. 576
15.12 Towers................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 576
15.13 Transformers ................................ ................................ ................................ . 576
15.14 Local supply chains ................................ ................................ ........................ 577
16 Rare Earth Metals ..................................................................................................... 578
17 Operation and maintenance..................................................................................... 583
18 Weather forecasting technologies............................................................................ 588
19 Energy storage .......................................................................................................... 595
19.1

Mechanical Storage ................................ ................................ ....................... 596

19.2

Electrochemical storage................................ ................................ ................. 597

19.3

Electromagnetic storage ................................ ................................ ................ 598

19.4

Coupling to new energies................................ ................................ ............... 599

19.5

Developments................................ ................................ ................................ 599

Page 22 of 695

20 Wind farm developers and owners........................................................................... 600


21 Advantages and disadvantages of wind energy compared with other forms of
energy....................................................................................................................... 613
22 Manufacturing base.................................................................................................. 617
22.1

The top nine wind turbine companies................................ ............................ 621

22.1.1 Vestas ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 621


22.1.2 GE Energy................................ ................................ ............................... 629
22.1.3 Sinovel ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 630
22.1.4 Enercon................................ ................................ ................................ .. 631
22.1.5 Goldwind................................ ................................ ................................ 632
22.1.6 Gamesa Corporacin Tecnolgica ................................ .......................... 632
22.1.7 Dongfang ................................ ................................ ............................... 634
22.1.8 Suzlon ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 634
22.1.9 Siemens Power Generation ................................ ................................ .... 637
22.1.10 Other manufacturers................................ ................................ .............. 639
22.1.10.1 REpower Systems AG................................ ................................ 639
22.1.10.2 Mitsubishi................................ ................................ ................. 640
22.1.10.3 Nordex................................ ................................ ...................... 641
23 Offshore wind power................................................................................................ 643
23.1

Investments ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 646

23.2

Distance from shore................................ ................................ ....................... 647

23.3

Manufacturers ................................ ................................ ............................... 647

23.4

Developers................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 649

23.5

Supply chain................................ ................................ ................................ ... 651

23.6

Future developments................................ ................................ ..................... 657

23.7

The benefits................................ ................................ ................................ ... 657

23.7.1 Higher wind speeds................................ ................................ ................ 657


23.7.2 More stable winds................................ ................................ .................. 658

Page 23 of 695

23.7.3 Huge offshore wind resources................................ ................................ 658


23.7.4 Low surface roughness: cheaper turbines ................................ .............. 658
23.7.5 Lower turbulence: longer lifetime ................................ .......................... 659
23.7.6 Shipping and transport................................ ................................ ........... 659
23.7.7 Closer to demand centres ................................ ................................ ...... 659
23.7.8 NIMBY................................ ................................ ................................ .... 659
23.8

The challenges ................................ ................................ ............................... 659

23.8.1 Costs ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 659


23.8.2 Foundations ................................ ................................ ........................... 663
23.8.3 Installation vessels ................................ ................................ ................. 667
23.8.4 Operation and maintenance................................ ................................ ... 668
23.8.5 Port facilities ................................ ................................ .......................... 669
23.8.6 Subsea cabling................................ ................................ ........................ 670
23.8.7 Maritime spacial planning ................................ ................................ ...... 670
23.8.8 Technical expertise................................ ................................ ................. 670
23.8.9 A European Offshore Grid ................................ ................................ ...... 671
23.9

Project Financing ................................ ................................ ........................... 674

24 Repowering............................................................................................................... 675
24.1

Market for old turbines................................ ................................ .................. 677

24.2

Recycling turbines................................ ................................ .......................... 680

25 Forecasting a new technology - Experience Curves and Progress Ratios (PR)........... 681
26 Development of wind turbine size............................................................................ 684
26.1

Onshore ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 684

26.2

Offshore................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 688

27 Promising Technologies ............................................................................................ 692


27.1

Direct drive turbines ................................ ................................ ...................... 692

27.2

Blade de-icing ................................ ................................ ................................ 693

27.3

Hydraulic transmissions ................................ ................................ ................. 693

Page 24 of 695

27.4

Technologies for operation and maintenance ................................ ................ 694

28 Community Power Ownership Model ...................................................................... 695

Page 25 of 695

List of Figures
Figure 1.

Global wind power installed capacity, GW 1990-2014 ................................ ... 47

Figure 2.

Development of installed capacity from 2000, MW, top five countries.......... 48

Figure 3.

Development of installed capacity from 2000, MW, next five countries ........ 49

Figure 4.

Forecast of global wind energy development to 2012, MW........................... 60

Figure 5.

Base, Intermediate and Peak Load by time of Day................................ ......... 68

Figure 6.

Capacity factors by month for wind power for Denmark, Sweden,


Germany, Netherlands ................................ ................................ .................. 70

Figure 7.

The contribution of wind power to covering peak load in 2003 ..................... 76

Figure 8.

Fluctuations in wind power feed-in ................................ ............................... 77

Figure 9.

Rapid decrease in wind power feed-in................................ ........................... 78

Figure 10.

Wind below forecast ................................ ................................ .................... 79

Figure 11.

Wind continues to blow longer than forecast................................ ................ 80

Figure 12.

Wind capacity that needs to be installed per year in a high scenario, MW .... 90

Figure 13.

Capacity for low and high scenarios for both onshore and offshore wind
in the EU, MW................................ ................................ ............................... 91

Figure 14.

Annual installations in the EU, 2010-2014 ................................ ..................... 92

Figure 15.

Average building consent time in the EU, months ................................ ......... 93

Figure 16.

Wind Energy Investments in the EU, 2000-2030 ................................ ............ 95

Figure 17.

Capital costs of onshore and offshore wind in the EU, /kW ......................... 96

Figure 18.

National renewable energy policies in EU countries ................................ .... 106

Figure 19.

US States with Renewable and Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards,


end 2009 ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 132

Figure 20.

Percentage of new capacity additions in the USA ................................ ........ 140

Figure 21.

Growth in wind power capacity in the United States, MW, 2000-2020........ 141

Figure 22.

Objectives of wind power development in the United States to 2010 ......... 142

Figure 23.

Installed capacity in the United States, by state, MW, end 2009.................. 143

Figure 24.

Estimates of Windy 1 Land Area and Wind Energy Potential by State for
Areas >= 30% Capacity Factor at 80m, February 4, 2010, MW ..................... 144

Page 26 of 695

Figure 25.

Projects under construction ................................ ................................ ........ 151

Figure 26.

Potential market: wind project development to meet the 20% by 2030


wind target................................ ................................ ................................ .. 153

Figure 27.

Scenario of new manufacturing employment to meet the 20% by 2030


wind target................................ ................................ ................................ .. 154

Figure 28.

Onshore and offshore wind resources in the United States ......................... 155

Figure 29.

Wind resources in the Great Lakes ................................ ............................. 156

Figure 30.

US transmission scenario (new transmission in red) ................................ .... 158

Figure 31.

Manufacturers market share in the United States, MW, 2009..................... 160

Figure 32.

Manufacturers market share of projects under construction in the United


States, MW, end 2009 ................................ ................................ ................. 161

Figure 33.

Market share of installations in the United States, by MW, 2005 - 2009...... 164

Figure 34.

Turbine manufacturer locations, current or announced for 2010 ................ 165

Figure 35.

Breakdown of companies in the wind power supply chain in each state...... 166

Figure 36.

Major owners of wind facilties in the United States, end 2009 .................... 169

Figure 37.

Wind resources in the United States ................................ ........................... 171

Figure 38.

Cost of wind energy 1980 to 2008, $/MWh ................................ ................. 173

Figure 39.

Advanced tower design ................................ ................................ .............. 175

Figure 40.

The growth of wind power capacity in China, MW 2000-2020..................... 187

Figure 41.

Chinese wind potential by region ................................ ............................... 189

Figure 42.

Potential output of 1.5 MW wind turbines in China, % of maximum


output over time ................................ ................................ ......................... 190

Figure 43.

DC-grid under construction around Guangzhou................................ ........... 191

Figure 44.

Offshore wind potential ................................ ................................ .............. 193

Figure 45.

Offshore wind projects in the pipeline................................ ......................... 196

Figure 46.

Capacity shares of manufacturers in China, 2009, %................................ .... 208

Figure 47.

Growth of the wind power market in Germany, MW, 2000-2020 ................ 214

Figure 48.

Objectives for wind power development in Germany to 2010 MW ............. 215

Figure 49.

German North Sea and Baltic Sea development status, Q1 2010................. 223

Page 27 of 695

Figure 50.

Annual onshore and offshore build and repowering in Germany, MW,


1993 to 2030 ................................ ................................ ............................... 224

Figure 51.

Cumulative installed capacity, onshore and offshore in Germany, MW


1993 to 2030 ................................ ................................ ............................... 224

Figure 52.

Trend in wind turbine sizes in Germany, 1997-2009 ................................ .... 225

Figure 53.

Installed wind capacity in German states, end 2009 ................................ .... 228

Figure 54.

Capacity by region, Germany, MW, 2009 ................................ .................... 229

Figure 55.

Number of turbines by region, Germany, 2009................................ ............ 229

Figure 56.

Map of regional distribution of wind turbines in Germany, by turbine


capacity................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 230

Figure 57.

Map of regional distribution of wind turbines in Germany, by turbine


capacity, 2007 ................................ ................................ ............................. 231

Figure 58.

Manufacturers shares in Germany, end 2009, % ................................ ........ 239

Figure 59.

The growth of the wind power market in Spain, MW, 2000-2020................ 241

Figure 60.

Objectives for wind power development to 2010................................ ........ 242

Figure 61.

Installed wind power capacity in Spain, 2009 ................................ .............. 244

Figure 62.

Aerial view of a mountain wind farm in Spain................................ .............. 245

Figure 63.

Monthly electricity supply from wind, 2003-2009 ................................ ....... 247

Figure 64.

Manufacturers shares in Spain, end 2009................................ ................... 248

Figure 65.

Wind turbine size in Spain, MW, 1995 to 2008 ................................ ............ 255

Figure 66.

The growth of wind power capacity in India, MW, 2000 - 2020 ................... 259

Figure 67.

Map of installed wind power in India by state, 2009................................ .... 261

Figure 68.

Wind resources of India................................ ................................ .............. 263

Figure 69.

Market share of manufacturers in India, March 2009, MW ......................... 277

Figure 70.

The top 10 Independent Power Producers in March 2009........................... 280

Figure 71.

Installed wind power capacity in Austria, MW, 1990-2012 .......................... 281

Figure 72.

Regional distribution of installed wind capacity in Austria, 2009, MW......... 282

Figure 73.

Market shares of wind turbine manufacturers in Austria, 2009................... 285

Figure 74.

Growth of the wind power market in Denmark, MW, 1990-2012 ................ 288

Figure 75.

Location of wind and CHP plants in Denmark, 2009................................ ..... 290

Page 28 of 695

Figure 76.

Capacity and production of wind powered electricity in Denmark, 1977 to


2007................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 291

Figure 77.

Number of wind turbines and capacity in Denmark (MW), 1977 to 2007 .... 292

Figure 78.

Location of offshore wind farms in Denmark................................ ............... 294

Figure 79.

New installed capacity in Demark, 2000-2009, MW................................ ..... 295

Figure 80.

Total installed capacity in Denmark, 1999-2009, MW................................ .. 295

Figure 81.

Generation of electricity from biomass in Denmark, GWh, 1980 to 2007 .... 297

Figure 82.

Turnover of Danish wind industry manufacturers in DKK billion, 1999


2009................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 304

Figure 83.

Danish exports by country of destination, 2005 and 2006 ........................... 305

Figure 84.

Average turbine size in Denmark, 1999-2009, kW ................................ ....... 306

Figure 85.

Forecasted sales of turbines, 2006 - 2012................................ .................... 306

Figure 86.

Installed wind power capacity in France, MW, 1990-2012........................... 340

Figure 87.

Installed wind capacity in France................................ ................................ . 347

Figure 88.

Installed wind power capacity in Greece, MW, 1990-2012 .......................... 350

Figure 89.

Distribution of wind plants in Greece by region, 2006 ................................ . 352

Figure 90.

Wind resources in Greece................................ ................................ ........... 353

Figure 91.

Market shares of wind turbine manufacturers in Greece, 2006 ................... 355

Figure 92.

Breakdown of market shares for turbine manufacturers for new capacity,


2009................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 356

Figure 93.

Wind developers market share of new installed capacity, 2009.................. 360

Figure 94.

Installed wind power capacity in Ireland, MW, 1990-2012 .......................... 361

Figure 95.

Distribution of Wind Capacity in Ireland, February 2010.............................. 362

Figure 96.

Location of planned windfarms in Ireland................................ .................... 364

Figure 97.

Manufacturers market shares, Ireland, MW, 2008 ................................ ..... 366

Figure 98.

Installed wind power capacity in Italy, MW, 1990-2012............................... 372

Figure 99.

Wind power capacity by region in Italy, 2009 ................................ .............. 374

Figure 100.

Market share of installed wind turbines manufacturers in Italy 2008, MW.. 377

Figure 101.

Market share of installed wind turbines manufactureres in Italy 2009,


MW................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 378

Page 29 of 695

Figure 102.

Installed wind power capacity in Netherlands, 1990-2012, MW .................. 380

Figure 103.

Wind plants in the Netherlands, Q1 2010................................ .................... 384

Figure 104.

Market share of installed wind turbines in Netherlands as of 14th April


2010, MW ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 389

Figure 105.

Projected installed wind power capacity in Norway, MW, 1990-2012 ......... 390

Figure 106.

Percentage electricity generated from wind power, end Q1 2010............... 394

Figure 107.

Offshore wind farm connection vision until 2030 ................................ ..... 397

Figure 108.

Offshore wind farm connection - vision until 2050 ................................ ...... 397

Figure 109.

Installed wind power capacity in Portugal, MW, 1990-2012 ........................ 400

Figure 110.

Regional distribution of wind installations in Portugal in 2009, MW............ 402

Figure 111.

Breakdown of capacity of wind farms in 2009, MW................................ ..... 406

Figure 112.

Market share of installed wind turbines manufacturers in Portugal, 2009,


%................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 408

Figure 113.

Market share of wind developers in Portugal, 2009................................ ..... 409

Figure 114.

Installed wind power capacity in Sweden, MW, 1990-2012 ......................... 410

Figure 115.

Installed wind power capacity in Turkey, MW, 1990-2012........................... 415

Figure 116.

Wind resources in Turkey ................................ ................................ ........... 416

Figure 117.

Regional distribution of 1 November 2007 wind farm applications.............. 419

Figure 118.

Manufacturers market share in Turkey, 2009, MW ................................ .... 421

Figure 119.

Growth in wind power capacity in the United Kingdom, MW, 1990-2012.... 423

Figure 120.

Round 1 offshore wind farms in the UK ................................ ....................... 431

Figure 121.

Round 2 offshore wind farms in the UK ................................ ....................... 433

Figure 122.

Round 3 offshore wind farms in the UK ................................ ....................... 434

Figure 123.

Breakdown of offshore Round 3 capacity awarded, MW ............................. 435

Figure 124.

Round 3 annual build out profile for the 32 GW awarded ........................... 436

Figure 125.

Cumulative installed UK small wind capacity (MW) ................................ ..... 447

Figure 126.

Installed wind power capacity in Australia, MW, 1990-2012 ....................... 448

Figure 127.

Installed wind power in the Australian States, MW ................................ ..... 450

Figure 128.

Wind speeds at select locations in Australia ................................ ................ 455

Page 30 of 695

Figure 129.

Market share of the top 6 wind farm owners by capacity in Australia,


2009, MW ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 457

Figure 130.

Installed wind power capacity in Japan, MW, 1990-2012 ............................ 458

Figure 131.

Manufacturers % market shares, Japan 2007 ................................ ............. 462

Figure 132.

Installed wind power capacity in Korea, MW, 1990-2012 ............................ 466

Figure 133.

Location of offshore winds ................................ ................................ .......... 469

Figure 134.

Installed wind power capacity in Taiwan, MW, 1990-2012 .......................... 474

Figure 135.

Installed wind power capacity in Egypt, MW, 1990-2012............................. 478

Figure 136.

Wind resources in Egypt ................................ ................................ ............. 481

Figure 137.

Installed wind power capacity in Morocco, MW, 1990-2012 ....................... 482

Figure 138.

Wind resources in Morocco................................ ................................ ........ 485

Figure 139.

The Mediterranean solar plan ................................ ................................ .... 487

Figure 140.

Market share turbine manufacturers in Morocco, 2009, MW...................... 488

Figure 141.

Market share of developers in Morocco, 2009, MW................................ .... 489

Figure 142.

The growth of wind power capacity in Brazil, MW, 2004-2012 .................... 490

Figure 143.

Map of wind resources in Brazil ................................ ................................ . 492

Figure 144.

Map of installed energy capacity and energy reserves in Canada, 2008....... 498

Figure 145.

The growth of wind power capacity in Canada, MW, 1990-2012 ................. 499

Figure 146.

Wind energy installed capacity in Canadian provinces, Q1 2010.................. 500

Figure 147.

Wind capacity approved or under construction in Canada, MW .................. 507

Figure 148.

Map of mean wind speed at 50 metres above ground in Canada ................ 508

Figure 149.

Market share of manufacturers in Canada, April 2010, MW ........................ 512

Figure 150.

Market share of developers in Canada in April 2010, MW ........................... 514

Figure 151.

Map of wind resources at 80 metres in Bulgaria................................ .......... 517

Figure 152.

Installed wind projects in the Czech Republic, Q1 2010 ............................... 519

Figure 153.

Manufacturers market share in the Czech Republic, end 2009 .................... 521

Figure 154.

Average turbine size of new installed capacity in the Czech Republic, kW ... 522

Figure 155.

Top ten developers in the Czech Republic, MW................................ ........... 523

Figure 156.

Map of wind resources in Estonia................................ ............................... 524

Page 31 of 695

Figure 157.

Location of wind farms in Finland................................ ............................... 526

Figure 158.

Wind atlas of Finland................................ ................................ .................. 527

Figure 159.

Manufacturers market share in Finland, end 2009 ................................ ...... 530

Figure 160.

Developers market share in Finland, end 2009................................ ............ 531

Figure 161.

Map of wind resources in Hungary................................ ............................. 532

Figure 162.

Map of wind resources in Latvia................................ ................................ . 533

Figure 163.

Average wind turbine size in Lithuania, kW ................................ ................. 534

Figure 164.

Average capacity factor in Lithuania, % ................................ ....................... 535

Figure 165.

Map of wind resources in Lithuania ................................ ........................... 536

Figure 166.

Map of wind resources in Romania ................................ ............................ 537

Figure 167.

Map of wind resources in the Ukraine................................ ......................... 539

Figure 168.

Location of operating projects and projects under construction in New


Zealand, Q1 2010 ................................ ................................ ........................ 542

Figure 169.

Existing and publically discussed wind farms ................................ ............... 544

Figure 170.

Market share of manufacturers in New Zealand, end 2009 ......................... 546

Figure 171.

Market share of developers in New Zealand, end 2009 ............................... 546

Figure 172.

Electricity generator Trust Fund is major relailer in New Zealand ................ 547

Figure 173.

Annual mean wind speeds in Kenya at a height of 50 metres ...................... 552

Figure 174.

Map of wind resources in South Africa ................................ ........................ 553

Figure 175.

Total installed and added capacity, 2009................................ ..................... 556

Figure 176.

Turbine parts ................................ ................................ .............................. 566

Figure 177.

Steel and copper prices compared to the 2008 peak, % .............................. 569

Figure 178.

Supply and demand of curves for carbon fibers................................ ........... 570

Figure 179.

Predicted demand for carbon fiber................................ .............................. 571

Figure 180.

How much neodymium will the offshore sector need?................................ 579

Figure 181.

Prices of 99% Neodymium Oxide, US$/kg on an FOB China basis................. 580

Figure 182.

Lifecycle breakdown of wind energy investment project costs, %................ 583

Figure 183.

Frequency of "failure rate" with increasing operational age ........................ 584

Figure 184.

Downtime per component failure, days ................................ ...................... 585

Page 32 of 695

Figure 185.

Weak point analysis for wind turbine subassemblies including failure


causes ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 586

Figure 186.

Salt structures and existing gas storage site in Europe................................ . 597

Figure 187.

Top wind energy developers in the world, MW 2006 - 2008........................ 600

Figure 188.

Top wind energy developers in the world, MW 2009 ................................ .. 601

Figure 189.

Investment costs, $/MW ................................ ................................ ............ 612

Figure 190.

Estimated investment costs, /kW................................ ............................. 613

Figure 191.

Estimated operation and maintenance costs, /kW/annum........................ 614

Figure 192.

Levelised Cost of Electricity, cents/kWh................................ .................... 614

Figure 193.

Value of global turbine market, billions, 2005 2009 ............................... 618

Figure 194.

Global market share of wind turbine manufacturers 2005 2008, % .......... 619

Figure 195.

Global market share of the top ten wind turbine manufacturers, 2009,% ... 620

Figure 196.

Submitted wind patent applications, 2009 ................................ .................. 621

Figure 197.

Vestas revenue 2001 to 2009 millions ................................ ...................... 622

Figure 198.

Vestas, distribution of revenue, 2009................................ .......................... 623

Figure 199.

MW sold by Gamesa in 2008 and 2009................................ ....................... 633

Figure 200.

Suzlon sales in MW, 2009 ................................ ................................ ........... 635

Figure 201.

Forecast Suzlon sales 2009 2013................................ .............................. 636

Figure 202.

Offshore wind installations by country MW, 2009................................ ....... 643

Figure 203.

Locations of offshore wind farms in the EU, Q1 2010 ................................ .. 644

Figure 204.

Market share of offshore turbine manufacturers, %................................ .... 649

Figure 205.

Market share EU offshore developers, end 2009, and % ............................. 650

Figure 206.

Buyers for the offshore wind supply chain................................ .................. 657

Figure 207.

Investment in wind farms, million per MW, 2009 prices ........................... 660

Figure 208.

ETP BLUE Map scenario projections for the development of onshore and
offshore wind investment costs ($ million/MW)................................ .......... 662

Figure 209.

Offshore wind foundation structures ................................ ......................... 664

Figure 210.

Floating turbines................................ ................................ ......................... 665

Figure 211.

Offshore operating conditions................................ ................................ .... 669

Page 33 of 695

Figure 212.

Plans for an offshore grid in the North Sea and the Mediterranean............. 673

Figure 213.

Repowering of the Bassens Windfarm in Lower Saxony, Germany .............. 675

Figure 214.

Estimates new annual EU wind energy capacity, 2000-2030........................ 677

Figure 215.

Price of used turbines compared to the price when new, % ........................ 678

Figure 216.

Increase in turbine size, world average, 1997-2009 (kW)............................. 684

Figure 217.

Average turbine size top 5 countries, MW................................ ................... 686

Figure 218.

Average turbine size key European countries, MW................................ ...... 686

Figure 219.

American states with 2 MW + turbines................................ ........................ 687

Figure 220.

Expected market increase to meet demand for larger turbines ................... 688

Figure 221.

Average wind turbine size for new offshore capacity additions, MW........... 689

Figure 222.

Average wind turbine size for new offshore capacity additions in Europe,
MW................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 689

Figure 223.

Timeline of future developments in offshore turbine size ........................... 690

Figure 224.

Growth in size of wind turbines since 1980 ................................ ................. 691

Figure 225.

Siemens 3.6 MW gearless turbine A and Siemens geared turbine B ............ 693

Page 34 of 695

List of Tables
Table 1.

The 1 GW Club in 2009................................ ................................ .................. 50

Table 2.

Installed wind generating capacity, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005-2010, MW ........ 54

Table 3.

National forecasts of wind energy development 2007 to 2012...................... 61

Table 4.

Growth hot spots 2009 2012................................ ................................ ...... 65

Table 5.

Typical capacity factors for different generating technologies....................... 69

Table 6.

National targets under 2009 EU renewable legislation ................................ .. 87

Table 7.

Renewable installed capacity projections ................................ ...................... 89

Table 8.

Summary of the Copenhagen Accord ................................ ............................ 99

Table 9.

Wind CDM projects, March 2010................................ ................................ 100

Table 10.

Renewables targets and support schemes of European countries ............... 107

Table 11.

Non-European countries with renewable energy targets and plans............. 120

Table 12.

State RPS resource tiers................................ ................................ .............. 136

Table 13.

Wind projects completed in the United States, 2009, >5MW ...................... 145

Table 14.

Wind projects under construction in United States, as of December 2009 .. 149

Table 15.

The ten largest wind farms operating in the United States, Q1 2010 ........... 152

Table 16.

Offshore Exploration Leases for Wind Energy Production............................ 155

Table 17.

States with offshore targets ................................ ................................ ........ 157

Table 18.

Major owners of wind facilties in the United States, end 2009 .................... 168

Table 19.

Sales of small wind turbines in the United States, units, 2008 ..................... 170

Table 20.

US Bills in Congress ................................ ................................ ..................... 184

Table 21.

Commercial production of turbines for domestic market ............................ 195

Table 22.

Offshore wind projects in the pipeline................................ ......................... 195

Table 23.

Feed-in tariffs in China ................................ ................................ ................ 200

Table 24.

Approved wind projects ................................ ................................ .............. 202

Table 25.

Decomissioned turbines ................................ ................................ .............. 216

Table 26.

Offshore installations operating, under construction and planned in


Germany, Q1 2010 ................................ ................................ ...................... 218

Page 35 of 695

Table 27.

Shares of wind turbines by power group in the potential annual energy


yield, Germany, 1989 to 2008................................ ................................ ...... 226

Table 28.

Capacity of installed wind turbines................................ .............................. 227

Table 29.

Number of wind turbines and capacity of each German TSO, February


2010................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 232

Table 30.

Wind turbine capacity of major German distribution companies, February


2010, >100 MW................................ ................................ ........................... 232

Table 31.

National and autonomous-region targets for wind energy 2010 to 2019,


MW................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 242

Table 32.

Regional distribution of wind power capacity (MW), 2009 .......................... 243

Table 33.

Gamesa Elicas international portfolio of farm wind farms ........................ 249

Table 34.

Gamesa Elicas turbine units sold ................................ .............................. 250

Table 35.

ACCIONA Energys renewable energy portfolio ................................ ........... 251

Table 36.

Location of ACCIONA projects ................................ ................................ ..... 251

Table 37.

ACCIONA operating or completed wind turnkey projects ............................ 252

Table 38.

Spanish wind developers share, 2009................................ ......................... 254

Table 39.

Installed capacity of wind power by state, MW, 2003 - 2009 and


estimated potential................................ ................................ ..................... 260

Table 40.

Number of Approved Wind Farmable Sites by state, May 2009................... 264

Table 41.

Economics of a typical wind farm in India................................ .................... 264

Table 42.

Proposed wind farms in India ................................ ................................ ...... 267

Table 43.

Loan schemes offered by IREDA for development of wind power, 2009...... 268

Table 44.

Manufacturers approved by MNES, India, December 2009 ......................... 271

Table 45.

Presence of Power Producers in the wind industry................................ ...... 279

Table 46.

Wind parks in Austria > 10 MW (Accounting for 820 MW)........................... 283

Table 47.

Offshore installations operating, under construction and planned in


Denmark ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 293

Table 48.

Number, capacity and average size of turbines installed annually ............... 342

Table 49.

Windfarms in France > 15 MW, 2009 ................................ .......................... 343

Table 50.

Status of projects in the pipelin in Greece at the end of 2009...................... 350

Page 36 of 695

Table 51.

Wind energy developers in Greece, 2007 ................................ .................... 357

Table 52.

Major wind farms in Greece > 10 MW, end March 2010.............................. 358

Table 53.

Consortia with offshore licences to 2003................................ ..................... 363

Table 54.

Overall net cost benefit of 1,000 MW of additional offshore wind capacity. 365

Table 55.

Wind farms in Ireland, 2009 > 10 MW ................................ ......................... 369

Table 56.

Wind farms in Italy >20 MW................................ ................................ ....... 374

Table 57.

Offshore wind projects in operation, under construction and planned in


the Netherlands ................................ ................................ .......................... 381

Table 58.

Wind energy generation by province, April 2010................................ ......... 382

Table 59.

Wind farms in the Netherlands > 20 MW, end 2009................................ .... 385

Table 60.

Wind farms in Norway > 20 MW, 2009................................ ........................ 391

Table 61.

Operating wind farm > 20 MW, Q1 2010................................ ..................... 395

Table 62.

Projects under construction, end Q1 2010 ................................ .................. 396

Table 63.

Investments in the expansion of the grid system in Poland ......................... 398

Table 64.

Wind farms under construction in Portugal, end 2009 ................................ 403

Table 65.

Wind farms in Portugal > 20 MW ................................ ............................... 404

Table 66.

Planned wind projects >10 MW, January 2010 ................................ ............ 411

Table 67.

Offshore wind farms in operation, under construction and planned in


Sweden, end 2009................................ ................................ ....................... 412

Table 68.

Operational wind farms, Turkey, February 2010................................ .......... 417

Table 69.

Wind farms under construction, February 2010 ................................ .......... 418

Table 70.

Status of wind farm development in the UK, MW, April 2010...................... 424

Table 71.

UK wind farms in operation > 20 MW, 2009 ................................ ................ 425

Table 72.

New projects entering planning in the UK since the last report ................... 428

Table 73.

Contracts awarded for 9 exclusivity zones................................ ................... 435

Table 74.

Offshore wind farms UK, 2009................................ ................................ .... 436

Table 75.

Offshore wind farms planned in the UK, 2009 ................................ ............. 439

Table 76.

Offshore plans by political party................................ ................................ .. 444

Table 77.

New schemes in Australia in 2009 ................................ ............................... 449

Page 37 of 695

Table 78.

seven projets in the pipeline at the end of 2009................................ .......... 449

Table 79.

Wind farms in Australia that offset desalination plants ............................... 450

Table 80.

Utility feed-in tariffs for different states, 2010 ................................ ............ 453

Table 81.

Operational wind farms in South Korea, end 2009 ................................ ...... 466

Table 82.

Projects under development in South Korea, end 2009 ............................... 466

Table 83.

Supply chain for wind components in South Korea................................ ...... 473

Table 84.

Planned phase 3 projects in Taiwan................................ ............................. 475

Table 85.

Current installed capacity in operation, end 2009 ................................ ....... 483

Table 86.

Renewable energy projects in Morocco, status end 2009............................ 484

Table 87.

Wind farms in Brazil ................................ ................................ ................... 493

Table 88.

Wind farms in Canada > 10 MW, Q1 2010 ................................ ................... 501

Table 89.

Canadian Wind Energy Projects with a signed Power Purchase Agreement


and/or already under construction, as of April 2010................................ .... 504

Table 90.

Provincial initiatives in Canada, Q1 2010 ................................ ..................... 510

Table 91.

Small wind turbine manufacturers in Canada ................................ .............. 513

Table 92.

Planned capacity in the north east region of Bulgaria, end 2009 ................. 516

Table 93.

Projects added in 2009 in Czech Republic................................ .................... 519

Table 94.

Planned onshore projects, end 2009 ................................ ........................... 528

Table 95.

Planned offshore projects, end 2009................................ ........................... 529

Table 96.

Wind projects in operation in New Zealand, end Q1 2010........................... 541

Table 97.

Wind projects under construction and underdevelopment, end 2009......... 543

Table 98.

Wind projects in the appeals process ................................ .......................... 543

Table 99.

Projects in development stage in Kenya ................................ ...................... 550

Table 100.

Projects in development in other countries in Africa ................................ ... 555

Table 101.

Wind projects in operation in Chile, end 2009................................ ............. 558

Table 102.

Wind projects in operation in Mexico, end 2009 ................................ ......... 560

Table 103.

Wind projects under construction in Mexico, end 2009............................... 560

Table 104.

Major wind turbine manufacturers and their main suppliers....................... 565

Table 105.

Rough estimate of material cost without work per MW .............................. 568

Page 38 of 695

Table 106.

Requirements for rare earth metals ................................ ............................ 578

Table 107.

Companies outside of China involved in rare earth metal exploration......... 581

Table 108.

Development stage of rare earth metal companies................................ ..... 582

Table 109.

Extreme changes in output (ramp rates) ................................ ..................... 588

Table 110.

Overview of Operational and Commercial Wind Power Forecasting


Systems, November 2009................................ ................................ ............ 589

Table 111.

Energy storage technologies................................ ................................ ........ 595

Table 112.

Latest prices for energy storage in Great Britain and Germany.................... 595

Table 113.

Companies investigating the use of battery storage ................................ .... 598

Table 114.

Wind energy developers................................ ................................ .............. 602

Table 115.

Water footprint of different primary energy carriers................................ ... 615

Table 116.

Advantages and disadvantages of different types of renewable energy ...... 616

Table 117.

Global installed base of Vestas wind turbines by country, end 2009............ 623

Table 118.

Global installed base of Vestas wind turbines by size (output), end 2009 .... 626

Table 119.

Vestas facilities 2010 ................................ ................................ .................. 627

Table 120.

Siemens Power Generation sale of turbines ................................ ............. 637

Table 121.

Nordex sales of turbines ................................ ................................ ........... 641

Table 122.

Development of offshore and near shore in future key markets based on


planned activity to 2020, as of April 2010................................ .................... 645

Table 123.

Offshore projects funded by the European Economic Recovery Plan........... 646

Table 124.

Planned capacity in MW, end 2009 ................................ ............................ 651

Table 125.

EU companies with proven experience in offshore wind ............................. 652

Table 126.

Past and confirmed supply contracts for offshore wind farms ..................... 653

Table 127.

Known patent applications related to offshore wind, 2009 ......................... 655

Table 128.

Typical component costs of offshore wind turbines ................................ .... 661

Table 129.

Offshore vs. onshore costs ................................ ................................ .......... 661

Table 130.

Advantages and disadvantages of different offshore foundations ............... 666

Table 131.

EU manufacturers of offshore wind foundations ................................ ......... 667

Page 39 of 695

Table 132.

Selection of vessels and jack-up barges currently active in wind


installation with an operating depth of < 30m................................ ............. 667

Table 133.

Ports with deep water and reinforced quaysides for heavy wind turbines... 670

Table 134.

Advantages and disadvantages of repowering................................ ............. 676

Table 135.

Trading companies for used turbines ................................ .......................... 679

Table 136.

Recyclable components of a wind turbine ................................ ................... 680

Table 137.

Progress ratios for wind turbines ................................ ............................... 682

Table 138.

Technology characteristics of wind turbines................................ ................ 683

Page 40 of 695

The development of wind energy: the market in 2010

World wind energy installed capacity was 158 GW by the end of 2009, with 37 GW added
during the year, this represents a 31% increase on 2008 and is an even greater percentage
year on year increase than we saw between 2006 and 2007 (26%).
Last year was a better year than expected with an extra 12.5 GW installed compared to
estimates from the GWEC.
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GW 2.4

Figure 1.

2.7

3.1

3.8

4.9

9.7

13

17.5 24.3 31.1 39.2 47.5 59.1

74

93.8

121 158.5 199.9 243.9 292 346.5 409

Global wind power installed capacity, GW 1990-2014

Source; GWEC

It is estimated that it will reach 200 GW by the end of 2010. This would represent 26%
growth on 2009, the slowing in the market due to the global economic environment, continued uncertainty and the difficulty to raise capital.
The growth in 2009 was primarily associated with China, where a record 13.8 GW was
added more than doubling the capacity to 26 GW, and USA, where 10 GW was added,
increasing the capacity by 40% to 35 GW.
However, outside of these two countries, capacity growth within the remaining Top Ten
countries remained at 9%, so in order to maintain momentum we are beginning to see the
process of globalisation of the wind industry as more countries begin to make significant
investment, particularly in South America, North Africa and Eastern Europe. While the Top
Ten countries still accounted for approximately 87% of the global market in 2009 (the same

Page 47 of 695

Figure 43.

DC-grid under construction around Guangzhou

Source; Siemens

The far north of China experiences sub zeros temperatures, and therefore needs cold
resilient turbines.
5.2.5

Present Status of Development

There have been three stages in the development of grid-connected wind farms.
In the initial demonstration period (1986-1993), the main activity was to build small-scale
demonstration wind farms by utilising grants from foreign donor countries and loans.
Support from the government was mainly in terms of financial backing, such as investment
in wind farm projects or in the development of wind turbines.
In the industrialisation period (1994-2003), the former Ministry of Electric Power proposed a
wind power industrialisation programme, including the early stages of wind farm construction in 1993. The following year it was decided that the grid utility should facilitate the
connection of wind farms to the nearest grid and all the electricity generated by wind farms
should be purchased. The grid tariff would be calculated as the sum of power generation
costs, loan payments and a reasonable profit. The difference between the wind electricity

Page 191 of 695

Figure 90.

Wind resources in Greece

Source; CRES

6.4.3

Offshore

Greece has extensive offshore wind resources.


Several offshore projects are in the planning stages:

216 MW project off the coast of Thrace being developed by Copelouzos;

600 MW project off the coast of Thrace being developed by Terna;

Page 353 of 695

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

USA

707

723

720

880

880

1,190

1,190

1,440

1,440

1,600

1,650 1676.376 1,740

Germany

623

783

919

1,101

1,281

1,397

1,553

1,700

1,723

1,848

1,888

1,923

Spain

422

504

589

648

721

845

950

1,120

1,330

1,375

1,562

1,775

India

279

283

283

401

441

553

620

696

781

China

Figure 217.

2008

1363

2009

1,918

Average turbine size top 5 countries, MW


2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

560

687

750

931

850

1,351

1,996

1,079

1,233

1,279

Denmark

2007

2008

Italy

776

802

918

1,198

1149

1534

1567

France

713

795

1,162

1,132

1,689

1,752

1,907

UK

843

1,678

1,691

1,688

2,119

2,017

2,124

Figure 218.

Average turbine size key European countries, MW

Source; Country reports

Page 686 of 695

capacity blades. Only one turbine manufacturer, Vestas, has submitted patents for composite materials for wind turbines so far.
Over the next seven years the market for 1.5 MW+ will increase to meet demand for larger
turbines. There will still be a market for small turbines, mainly from developing countries,
remote locations and for companies generating their own electricity needs. Forecast of
market share for different turbine sizes, %:
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005

2006

2007
< 750kW

Figure 220.

26.2

2008

2009

2010

751kW-1,500kW

2011

2012

2013

1,501 kW-2,500 kW

2014

2015

2016

2017

> 2,500 kW

Expected market increase to meet demand for larger turbines

Offshore

Since the first offshore turbine was installed in 1992, offshore turbines have been increasing
in size both size and capacity at a faster rate than onshore turbines. Between 2001 and 2009
there was an in the average rating of new installed capacity in Europe. The largest turbines
in operation are the 5 MW Multibrid and 5 MW REpower turbines at the Alpha Ventus and
Hooksiel wind farms in Germany. REpower claims its 5 MW offshore turbine can operate at
6 MW.

Page 688 of 695

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