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Content

Plenary Session
Dynamics of Regional Disaster System and Paradigm for Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction.................. 1 Placing the Research Stream of Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) in Retrospect and Prospect .............................................................................................................................. 2 Pro-active Development Assistance New Ideas for Financing Disaster Recovery ......................................... 3 Human Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change: The State of Research ............................................ 4 Reducing China's Vulnerability to Disasters................................................................................................... 5 How to Prepare for such a Huge Natural Force as the India Ocean Tsunami of 2004................................. 6 Critical Policy Issues in the Development of a Tsunami Early Warning System (EWS) for the Indian Ocean........................................................................................................................................ 7 Current Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation Activities in Istanbul .............................................................. 8 Control and Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in China .......................................... 9 What Integrated Infectious Disease Assessment Teaches about Mitigating the Impact of New Disease Epidemics ................................................................................................................................ 10 Crsis Management in the 21st Century, Unthinkable Events in Inconceivable Contexts ...................... 11 Improvement of Chinas Overall Capacity for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation through Scientific and Technological Progress............................................................................................. 12 Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach ................................................ 13 Recent Developments in Disaster Reduction R&D Promotion under "Implementation Strategies".......... 14 How to Link Risk Financing with Cost-Effective Mitigation? ..................................................................... 15 Vulnerability to SARS and Remedials.......................................................................................................... 16 Food Supply and Disaster in the 21st Century: Challenge and Opportunity for Integrated Disaster Risk Management .......................................................................................................... 17 The Outlook for Innovative Insurance Instruments in China ........................................................................ 18 Assessing the Financial Management of Public Sector Disaster Risk: The Mexican Case ....................... 19 Linking Financial Instruments with Mitigation............................................................................................. 20 Using Index-Based Risk Transfer Mechanisms in Developing Countries .................................................... 21 The World Bank Institute Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Learning Program.......................... 22 Video Tools for Community-Level Disaster Risk Reduction: Developing Awareness and Training through Audiovisual Media ............................................................... 23 About the Last-Mile Programme for Disaster Risk Reduction Education in Algeria ................................... 24 Moving Towards Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Conclusions form the EE-21C (Earthquake Engineering in the 21th Century Conference) ......................... 25 Enhancing the Effectiveness of Integrated Disaster Risk Management: The Role of Case Stations and Field Campuses............................................................................................ 26 Status Quo of Case-Station and Field-Campus in Japan ............................................................................... 27 A Trapezoid Framework for Integrated Risk Management to Frightful Catastrophes............................... 28 Decision Support Tools for Managing Rising Disaster Risk: A Survey ....................................................... 29
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Spatial Temporal GIS with Multi Language Basis as a Common Platform for Disaster Information Management .......................................................................................................... 30

Parallel Session 1
The Compilation of City Natural Disaster Regionalization in China .......................................................... 31 A Framework of Economic Loss Estimation of Transportation Network Disruption Caused by an Earthquake .............................................................................................................................. 32 Households Choice on Reconstruction of a Damaged House after an Earthquake................................... 33 Disaster Risk Finance: Existing Models and Next Steps .............................................................................. 34 Risk Assessment and Regionalization for Debris-Flow Disaster Insurance in Mountainous Area in Beijing....................................................................................................................................................... 35 A Flood Evacuation Information System for Citizens and Local Government............................................. 36

Parallel Session 2
Impacts of Human Interventions on Hydrological Risk at the Catchment Scale .......................................... 37 Global Implications from the Analysis of Abnormal Rainfall Phenomena on Various Spatio-Temporal Scales Ranging to Basin Characteristics......................................................... 38 An Optimal Design Scheme of In-floodplain Mitigation Measures to Maximize Success Rate of Evacuation ......................................................................................................... 39 Modeling Flood Loss and Risk Perception: Case of Nari Typhoon 2001 in Taipei...................................... 40 NIED Project I: Integrated Flood Risk Management and Participatory Flood Risk Communication Support System Development .................................................... 41 Scientific and Policy Innovation in the Integrated Flood Risk Management................................................ 42

Parallel Session 3
Integrating the Control of Major Accidents Risk in the Overall Policy for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation............................................................................................................... 43 Assessment and Management of Major Accident Risks Connected with Industrialized Areas: The Case of Ravenna (Italy).......................................................................................................................... 45 Current Practices for Risk Zoning around Nuclear Power Plants in Comparison to other Industry Sectors....................................................................................................... 46 Natech Disasters: A Review of Practices, Lessons Learned and Future Research Needs............................. 47

Parallel Session 4
China Dust Storms: A Remote Sensing Evaluation of the Hazard and its Societal Impact .......................... 48 Some of Our Comprehension and Understanding in Risk Analysis for Development and Management Related Water Resources, Water Disaster and Water environment ........... 49 The Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Flood/Waterlogging Disaster in Middle and Lower Reaches of Liao River of Northeast China ................................................................. 50 Case Study of Crisis Management of 1998 Quebec Ice Storm ..................................................................... 51 Characterizing Infrastructure Failure Interactions for Systemic Risk Analysis and Integrated Management of Disasters............................................................................................................. 52

Parallel Session 5
Bam Reconstruction Process and Achievement ............................................................................................ 53
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Urbanization and Earthquake Disaster Reduction......................................................................................... 54 Earthquake Protection of Historical Buildings by Reversible Mixed Technologies: The Prohitech Project .................................................................................................................................... 56 The Study of Financial Loss and Adjustment Problems of Earthquake Insurance ....................................... 57 Durable Development, from Slogan to Action.............................................................................................. 58 Earthquakes and Mental Health .................................................................................................................... 59 Liquidity Constraint on Housing Choice after Disaster ................................................................................ 60

Parallel Session 6
Innovation in Science and Policy for Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Critical Infrastructures .......... 61 Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natural Hazards: An Australian Perspective............................................ 62 Vulnerability Assessment the Applicability and Usefulness of Indicators to Measure Vulnerability .......... 63 Risk Perception and Structural Vulnerability in Istanbul Following the Marmara Earthquakes: Strategies for Reducing Vulnerability........................................................................................................... 64 A Vulnerability Assessment Methodology for Flood Hazards in China....................................................... 65 Environmental Disaster Risk, Political Conflict and Governance: A Case Study from Nepal .................. 66 Identifying Disaster Risk Management Sound Practices in Megacities........................................................ 67

Parallel Sessions for Young Scientists A


Capability of Urban Diagnostic Survey for Community Preparedness and Disaster Risk Management ...... 68 Status Quo of Case-Station and Field-Campus in Japan ............................................................................... 69 Opportunities, Barriers and Challenges for Implementing Electronic Data and Information Sharing Frameworks in Organizational Response to Natural Disasters.................................... 70 Consensus-Based Reconstruction of Flood Risk Culture as a Mitigation Tool ............................................ 71 The QMethodology Approach to Characterization of the Attitudes and Behaviors toward Furniture Nailing for Earthquake Preparedness ............................................................... 72 Modeling Multi-Actor Decision Process in Conflict Situation: A case of Community Disaster Risk Mitigation in Ichinose Community, Tottori Prefecture, Japan............................ 73

Parallel Sessions for Young Scientists B


Progress and Expectation on Flood Risk Analysis........................................................................................ 74 Optimizing Financial Strategies for Governments against the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters in Developing Countries ................................................................................................... 75 An Analysis of Economic Impacts from the 2004 Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake .......................................... 76 Developing Community Safety Maps for Urban Diagnosis.......................................................................... 77 Development of Earthquake Risk Management in China ............................................................................. 78 Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Coupled Social Ecological System: Challenges for Mainstreaming .... 79

Poster Session A
Integrated Flood Forecasting on Multi-Jurisdictional River Basins Lessons from Data Management in Lancangjiang-Mekong Countries.............................................................................................................. 80 Problems of Managing Volunteers Active in Disaster .................................................................................. 81 Fundability Study on Feasibility of Seismic Risk Swap and its Condition Setting....................................... 82

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Preliminary Study on Insurance of Seismic Indirect Economic Loss ........................................................... 83 The Earthquake Disaster Impact on the Rural Residents .............................................................................. 84 Valuing Avoidance of Life Inconvenience in Evacuation............................................................................. 85 Risk Perception of Flood and Landslide Victims in Taiwan......................................................................... 86 Flood Hazard Map and Residents Recognition of Flood Risk Information................................................. 87 Risk Analysis of Urban Rainfall Waterlogging in TianJin City.................................................................... 88 Weibull Distributions and Evaluate of Flood Disaster.................................................................................. 89 Analysis on the 04.6.23 Flash Flood and Geological Disasters in Hunan Province and its Warning and Forecasting Service............................................................................................................. 90 Approach on Urban Debris Flow Risk Assessment ...................................................................................... 91 Research on Debris Flow along Highway in China ...................................................................................... 92 Site-Specific Assessment of Debris Flow Vulnerability: Case Studies ........................................................ 93 Agricultural Drought Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Farm Households ............................................... 94 The Appraisement of Agricultural Disaster Risk and its Application to the Cultivated Land Management in China................................................................................................... 95 Agriculture Drought Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................................ 96 The study On the Snowmelt Index and Assessment of Snow Disaster ......................................................... 97 Study on Predicting Technology of Coal Bed Methane Based on Double-Phase Media Theory ................. 98 Integration of Disaster Management Need to Include Fire Prevention Policy in Country like Nepal: Case Study from Nepal............................................................................................. 99 The Reducing Calamity and Continuation Able Development for Expo .................................................... 100 Measures for Preventing Disaster of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality .................................................. 101 Design of Meteorological Disaster Evaluation Query and Display Operational System Based on GrADS in SCEM......................................................................................................................... 102 A Method for Calculating Integrated Index of Regional Disaster Risk ...................................................... 103 Large-Scale Evacuation of People from Urban Disaster............................................................................. 104 The Rebuilding Processes in the Fluctuation Zone of Three Gorges Reservoir and Bank Slope Disasters Mitigationthe case of Zhongxian County ......................................................... 105 A Study on Weather Forecast and Alert of Geologic Disaster in Ningxia.................................................. 106 Design of a Structure to Implement the Newly Adopted Disaster Management Law in Algeria ............... 107 A Lecture to Handout Students Basic Knowledge and Skills to Choose Safe and Sustainable Dwellings for Risk Management .................................................................................................................................. 108 Safety Campus: Significance, Management & Structure ............................................................................ 109 Study on Risk Perception of University Students ....................................................................................... 110 Warning grassland rodent disaster experiment in south A-LU-KE-ER-QIN county ................................111 Primary study on relationship between airborne pollen density and pollinosis .......................................... 112 Advance in the risk assessment of large public places................................................................................ 113 The Policy Innovation in the Management of Technology Disasters.......................................................... 114 Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Management: Comprehensive and Integrated Model and Chinese Strategy Choice ............................................................................................................................. 115 Design of the Administrative Decision System of Marine Environment Disasters Emergency and Rescue ............................................................................................................................... 116
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Poster Session B
The Potential Risk Assessment of Urban Post-Earthquake Fire Based on UGIS Grid............................................. 117 The Research of Risk for Agriculture Drought Based on Chaos Neural Networks .................................... 118 A Study on Urban Drought and Water Shortage Risk Assessment and Management Measures in Jilin Province..................................................................................................... 119 Land use and its Impact on Flood and Drought Disaster of Geographic Transect from Shenzhen to Bayahaote in China ........................................................................................................ 120 Flood Resilience Research of Dongting Lake in Hunan Province of China ............................................... 121 GIS-Based Validation of Flood Inundation Model ..................................................................................... 123 Study on Hydrologic Simulation of Qingjianhe River Basin in the Middle Yellow River ......................... 124 Diagnosis Based on Farmhouse Drought Disastrous Risk and Sustainable Development ........................ 125 The Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process to the Study of Dust Storm Risk Assessment.................. 126 Preliminary Research on Warning System of Snow Disaster in Pastureland of China: Taking Xilingol League as an Example ...................................................................................................... 127 Regional Disasters Responses of El Nino ................................................................................................... 128 Research on The Contribution of Coastal Dyke to Reducing the Loss Caused by Storm Surge ................ 129 Analysis on the Changes of Integrated Risk of Ocean Disasters in China since 1990s .............................. 130 A Research of the Effect of Different Arrangements of Refuge Floors in High-rise Buildings in Fire Situations ......................................................................................................................................... 131 Investigation of Pre-Evacuation Human Behavior Under Fire Situations Based on 2000-2002 Newspaper Reports on Fire Occurrences in Hong Kong .......................................... 132 Study on Surface Collapse and Cure Strategy in Enkou Mining Area........................................................ 133 Fuzzy Risk Based Risk Analysis of SARS ................................................................................................. 134 A Multi-objective Decision-Making Model for Evacuation Planning ........................................................ 135 Optimization of Urban Evacuation Plan ..................................................................................................... 136 Study on Integrated Agricultural Rrisk Management in China................................................................... 137 Regional Ecological Function Land Management ...................................................................................... 138 Integrated Disaster Risk Management and New Public Management Theories ......................................... 139 Analysis of Human Effects on Steppe Degradation Based on Temporal NDVI Database in Xilin gole, Inner Mongolia, China .......................................................................................................... 140 Matrix Pattern to Stage Serving for Integrated Risk Management of City Disaster ................................... 141 the Risk Analysis of Motorcycle Drivers of the Traffic Accident Rate in Hekou county Yunnan Province ............................................................................................................. 142 Modeling the Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in Shenzhen, China........ 143 Safety Inputs of Enterprise and Constructing of its Targets System ........................................................... 144 Reducing Economic Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in Rural Mexico .................................................. 145

NIED & BNU Joint Workshop


NIED Project I: Integrated Flood Risk Management and Participatory Flood Risk Communication Support System Development .......................................................................................... 146 NIED Project : Risk Governance in Regional Society Enhanced by Information Communication Technology ................................................................................................... 147
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NIED Project III: Evaluating Flood Risk Reduction Measures with Conjoint Analysis Method ............... 148 NIED Project IV: Relief Activities and Perspectives of Disaster NPOs in Japan....................................... 149 BNU Project I: Flood Disaster Monitoring and Management by Spatial Information Technology in China ................................................................................................... 150 BNU Project II: Flood Risk Assessment in Urban and Rural Areas in China ............................................ 151

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Author Index
Adrian V. Gheorghe Akiyoshi Takagi Ana Maria Cruz Andr Andrew Collins Aniello Amendola Arthur Lerner-Lam Bainian Li Bastien Affeltranger Ben Wisner Benyu Liu Charles Scawthorn Cheng Wang Chongfu Huang Christian Kirchsteiger Chuan Tang Chunmei Zhao Chun-yan YANG Daigee Shaw Dalia Bach Djillali Benouar Djillali Benouar Dong Wang Dongmei Jin Eiichi Nakakita Endong Guo Fang Zheng Gigliola Spadoni Guang Zeng Guofang Zhai Guofang Zhai Guomin Zhang Guoqing Wang Guoyi Han H.P. Nachtnebel Harumi Yashiro 61 36 47 70 10 43 13 89 80 17 109 20 44 28 46 91 132 96 40 48 24 107 74 119 38 83 104 45 16 85 148 137 124 79 37 82
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Hechao Huang Hector Ibarrapando Hirokazu TATANO Hiroyuki Kameda Hiroyuki Sakakibara Hitomi Murakami Hongkai Chen Huang Baoxu Hui Zhang Huijuan Yang Isamu Suzuki Isamu Suzuki Jin Chen Jinfeng Li Jing Chen Jing Liu Jing Zheng Jingai Wang Jingyi Li Jiquan Zhang Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer Joern Birkmann John McAneney Jue Wang Katalin Demeter Keping Chen Koko Warner Komal Raj Aryal Laiyin Zhu LI JING Li Liu Liu Shukun Luchuan Ren Mihail Garevski Min Liu Mingchou Ho

135 21 32 14 33 108 92 9 50 127 81 149 113 142 138 121 143 31 110 115 3 63 62 122 22 29 34 66 128 150 35 42 103 25 131 86

Mohammad Hassan Ahmadi Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany Muneta Mustafa Erdik Naghmeh Sadeghi Neil R Britton Nobuo Shuto Norio Okada Norio Okada Osman Killic Pablo Suarez Patrick Lagadec Patrick Lagadec Peiguo Song Peijun Shi Peng Li Peter Forstmoser Pokharel PK Pu Qiu Quanjun Chen Rebekah A. Green Reinhard Mechler Robert Bajek Roger E. Kasperson Rushan Liu Satoshi Tsuchiya Sergio O. Saldaa-Zorrilla Shigeru Kakumoto Shuangan Yang Shuqing Huang Sijian Zhao Stefan Hochrainer Suman Ranjan Sensarma Suqin Han Tao Ye Teruko Sato Teruko Sato Tim McDaniels

58 53 60 8 59 67 6 2 26 101 23 11 51 123 1 136 18 99 120 144 64 15 72 4 57 76 145 30 98 134 117 75 73 88 130 41 146 52

Tomoharu Hori Tomohide Atsumi Toshinari Nagasaka Victor Cardenas Wei Xu Wendong Hu Xiaobo Wu Xiaofeng Dua Xiaolan Wang Xiaomeng Shen Xiaonan Chen Xilin Liu Xinmin Wen Xuandong Li Xuehui Ren Yanhua Liu Yanrui Shang Ye Xue YE Yaoxian Yi Ge Ying Yoko Matsuda Yoshihiro Seki Yuansheng Zhu Yukiko Takeuch Yun Su Yurong Bai Yuying Chen Z. J. LI Zhaokang Xu Zhaoshuai Ge Zhengru Tao Zhenyao Wang Zhibin You Zhihui Gu Zhiqiang Wang Zixuan Du Zoran V. Milutinovic

39 27 147 19 77 102 111 129 90 71 118 93 114 133 116 12 94 141 54 65 84 68 69 49 87 95 112 106 97 100 105 78 5 139 140 125 126 56

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Plenary Session

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Dynamics of Regional Disaster System and Paradigm for Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction*
Peijun Shi 1,2
1. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: The author published 3 papers on theory and practice of disaster research in 1991, 1995, and 2001. In these papers, the author discussed nature and dynamic mechanism of disaster system. Based on these 3 papers, this paper ameliorates the structure and function system of disaster system from the perspective of integrated disaster risk managementand discusses functioning mechanism of resilience in the disaster process, then analysis the feedback relationship between regional development and security construction, finally establishes a risk governance mode for integrated regional disaster reduction. In this mode, the author puts forwards an integrated regional disaster reduction paradigm which involves governments, companies, and communities. There are obvious difference between vulnerability and resilience in the forming process of disaster loss. Vulnerability is a state variable of regional disaster system, it is decided by the reciprocity among hazard, hazard affected bodies, and hazard-formative environment, mainly depends on regional economy and security construction. While resilience is the state variable for regional recovery, reconstruction after the disaster, it relies on risk governance ability of integrated disaster, invest of governments and companies, and societal succor. Regional security level has close relationship with the tempo-spatial pattern of land use and industrial structure. So the adjustment of tempo-spatial pattern of land use and industrial structure, such as establish high risk areas red areas, is a promising measure to help the establishment of sustainable integrated disaster reduction paradigm. Considering the interaction rule in disaster chains, characteristics of the structure and functions of disaster system, the integrated regional disaster reduction paradigm put forward in this paper is a three-dimensional system, which includes vertical, horizontal, and institutional harmonization. In order to improve the regional disaster reduction ability in the regional development process, and finally favor sustainable development, the paradigm is guided by governments, operated by companies, and participated by communities. Key words: disaster system, structure and function, resilience, integrated disaster reduction paradigm

Corresponding address:
Prof. Peijun Shi Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology Beijing Normal University No. 19, Out of Xiejiekou Avenue 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58802158 Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: spj@bnu.edu.cn

Financially supported by NSFC (40425008) 1

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Placing the Research Stream of Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM) in Retrospect and Prospect
Norio Okada
DPRI, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

Abstract:As a conference coordinator of the past IIASA-DPRI Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM), the author presents an overall overview of firstly, where we have come from (what has been achieved so far), secondly, where we are now (the status-quo), and thirdly, where we are heading for (next goal), say, in another five years, at least. This way a systematic overview of the past accomplishments, current situations and near-future directions will be presented. Thus the global research stream of IDRiM will be placed in retrospect and then prospect. Particularly both the timing and place of this Beijing Form are claimed to be essential and crucial to landmark the watershed of IDRiM streams, given the latest occurrences of globally impacting disasters in Asia as well as emerging social, cultural and economic changes taking place in cities and countrysides of this globally-networked world. For this purpose it is suggested to place the goals of IDRiM more explicitly within the framework of sustainable development and the concept of vitae system will be briefly explained for the sake of this re-orientation. Then in collaboration with Drs. Peijung Shi (Beijing Normal Universit) and Joanne Bayer (IIASA) a conference roadmap will be presented, and what is particularly intended to be achieved during this Forum will be proposed as a guideline for participants.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Norio Okada Division of Integrated Management for Disaster Risk Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011 Japan Tel: +81-774-38-4035 Fax: +81-774-38-4044 Email: okada@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Pro-active Development Assistance New Ideas for Financing Disaster Recovery


Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
Internatinal Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria

Abstract: The central objective of development policy of many developed countries is the reduction of poverty, a goal which is extremely challenged by losses from disasters. Official Development Assistance (ODA) to developing countries increased to USD 78.6 billion in 2004. On average, this total represented 0.25% of the GNI of the contributing countries, which is still short of the goal set by the United Nations of 0.7% of GNI. In addition to ODA, many countries respond to disasters and conflict with humanitarian assistance. At the recent World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, participants voiced an urgent priority to refocus disaster risk management from current re-active disaster assistance to pro-active disaster reduction and financing. Since preventive measures can have large paybacks in terms of loss reduction, reorienting from post-disaster assistance can have direct positive consequences for reducing poverty. This paper examines how development and disaster assistance can reorient from after-the disaster support to pre-disaster prevention and financing. We examine existing experience with international support for public-private insurance systems, micro-insurance and public-sector risk transfer. One of the greatest challenges is to make these systems affordable to the population and governments of low-income countries, and this challenge can be met with support from the international community in terms of pro-active development assistance. A second challenge is to couple financial planning with preventive measures to reduce the effects of extreme events on human lives, the environment and the economy. There are important precedents for meeting these challenges, including internationally subsidized public-private insurance systems (e.g., in Turkey), nationally subsidized micro insurance schemes (e.g., in Ethiopia) and the possibility for assisting developing country governments transfer their public-infrastructure risks (e.g., through catastrophe bonds). Why should developed countries subsidize risk transfer for the developing world? As as start, the climate change convention calls upon Parties to consider actions, including those related to insurance, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing countries with respect to the adverse impacts of climate change (Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC) and Article 3.14 of the Kyoto Protocol calls for the implementation of Article 4.8 and explicitly for consideration of the establishment of insurance. Beyond international agreements, the donor community is searching for new forms of development assistance. Since the long-term affects of disasters could be prevented with improved financial management, the prospect of supporting pre-disaster instruments is appealing.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer Risk, Modeling and Society IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Tel: +43-2236-807-308 Fax: +43-2236-807-466 Email: bayer@iiasa.ac.at

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Human Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change: The State of Research


Roger E. Kasperson
The George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, USA

Abstract: In recent years, the issue of human vulnerability to global environmental change has emerged as a major topic in studies and assessment. Most of the major international organizations concerned with environmental change and sustainability questions have it prominently on their priority agenda. The same is true for both national and international aid agencies. In this paper, the author assesses the current state of research, identifying major findings that have emerged over the past decade and gaps in research and knowledge that remain to be filled. Interpretation is provided as to the uneven state of understanding that now exists and how it may be rectified. Particular concern is noted with the lack of a widely accepted conceptual framework to guide the vulnerability assessment of particular places, social groups, and ecosystems. A conceptual framework is proposed which captures many of the issues that have appeared in alternative conceptual frameworks and provides the prospect of more integrated assessments. Problems of scale interaction and cumulative processes are examined. The author concludes with a set of recommendations of research priorities for the next period of research, including attention to short-term contributions that can have immediate effects on the assessment and policy environment.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Roger E. Kasperson Director The George Perkins Marsh Institute Clark University 950 Main Street Worcester, MA 01610-1477 USA Tel: +1-508-751-4607 Fax: +1-508-751-4600 Email: rkasperson@clarku.edu

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Reducing China's Vulnerability to Disasters


Zhenyao Wang 1,2
1. Department of Disaster Mitigation and Relief, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China 2. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China

Abstract: China is one of the countries who have been suffering from the most serious natural disasters. The development history of Chinese Race is just the history of Chinese people fighting against natural disasters. Thus, it is one of the most important measures to enhance national natural disaster risk management to reduce natural disaster risk. Based on summarizing past experiences on disaster risk management, Chinese central and local governments put forward a disaster risk reduction strategy of prevention based and integrating prevention, mitigation and relief, and have been implementing the policy of balancing regional development and disaster risk reduction. In order to enhance integrated disaster risk management, Chinese central government has founded a coordination organization called National Committee for Disaster Reduction of China and its supporting department called National Disaster Reduction Center of China. In recent years, Chinese governments have been improving disaster risk management capability, and put forward an integrated emergency management system by improving emergency protocol, governance system, mechanisms and legal systems. To reduce China's vulnerability to disasters and increase resilience, Chinese governments have built storing bases for resources for disaster risk reduction, and founded a four-level emergency protocol, gaining obviously achievements in disaster risk reduction.

Keywords: emergency management; integrated disaster risk reduction; disaster prevention, mitigation and relief; vulnerability; resilience; China

Corresponding address:
Prof. Zhenyao WANG Department of Disaster Mitigation and Relief Ministry of Civil Affairs, P. R. China 147 Beiheyan Str., Dongcheng District, 100721 Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email:

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

How to Prepare for such a Huge Natural Force as the India Ocean Tsunami of 2004
Nobuo Shuto
Advanced Research Institute for the Sciences and Humanities, Nihon University, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract: A giant tsunami of December 26, 2004 in the Indian Ocean claimed more than 200,000 lives as a near-field tsunami and nearly 70,000 lives as a far-field tsunami. Its highest run-up was measured as high as 49, according to the International Tsunami Survey Team. Its run-up height is comparable with 38m of the 1896 Sanriku tsunami that claimed 22,000 lives and 35m of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami that claimed 160 lives. The high death toll of the 2004 tsunami was a result of no defense works against and of no knowledge about tsunamis in the densely populated region. Since the recurrence period of giant tsunami is much longer than a life span of human beings, it is quite difficult to prepare for it and convey the tsunami knowledge to the future generation. A recommended defense work is a combination of defense structures, city planning and soft-wares in harmony with daily activity. Structures such as sea walls provide a direct means to protect our lives and properties if tsunamis are lower than their crown height. A tsunami control forest can reduce tsunami-induced currents and stop floating materials, but not effective for a giant tsunami. City planning is composed of residence on the tsunami-free high ground, tsunami resistant building, protection of lifelines, exclusion of causes of secondary disaster, and so on. Soft-wares are our action; forecasting based upon theoretical and/or empirical knowledge, transmission of warning, evacuation, drills to exercise how to act in case of an emergency, public education to make people know tsunamis as the natural phenomenon and consider the relationship between tsunamis and them. If one remind the case of the Simeulue Island in 2004 where the memory of experience 97 years ago saved most of villagers, he may find several ways to protect human beings in the future. Key words: giant tsunami; defense structure; city planning; public education

Corresponding address:
Prof. Nobuo Shuto Advanced Research Institute for the Sciences and Humanities Nihon University Ichigaya Tokyo Building 6F Kudan-Kita 4-2-1 Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 102-0073 Japan Tel: +81-3-5275-7948 Fax: +81-3-5275-7852 Email: shuto@tsunami2.civil.tohoku.ac.jp

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Critical Policy Issues in the Development of a Tsunami Early Warning System (EWS) for the Indian Ocean
Ian Davis1, Yasamin O. Izadkhah2
1. Visiting Professor, Resilience Centre, Cranfield University, Shrivenham, Swindon, SN6 8LA, UK; 2. Research Associate, Resilience Centre, Cranfield University, Defence Academy, Shrivenham, Swindon, SN6 8LA, UK

Abstract: The Asian Tsunami of 26 December 2004 has probably had greater impact than almost any previous natural disaster or complex emergency. The disaster is considered unprecedented in its scale and magnitude, affecting 12 countries, resulting in around 300,000 dead or missing and with economic and asset damage estimated to exceed $13 Billions. Since the tsunami affected tourist venues, citizens of over 50 countries were killed or injured. A plan for an integrated Early Warning System (EWS) is needed to alert communities of the tsunami. Such a system has been in place in the Pacific Ocean for nearly 40 years and has saved thousands of lives. The Bangladesh National Cyclone Warning System has been in place since 1972 which has lessened the casualty figures in recent disasters in the country. It is evident that a warning system would have reduced casualties in South Asia, since Indonesia was struck 20 minutes after the earthquake and East Africa was not hit until 7 hours after the first quake. It is estimated that an Indian Ocean warning system will be placed by mid 2006 at a cost about US $30m. This development needs a careful consideration of three policy issues: How a Tsunami warning system may relate to other hazard warning systems, such as cyclone warnings;The interface between the scientific forecasts and warnings and the dissemination of warnings to enable effective evacuation to take place;The relationships between a Tsunami warning system and natural and local disaster planning. While most of the discussion concerning the development of the Indian Ocean Tsunami has centred on scientific, political and logistical considerations, the authors believe that the above three issues have been seriously neglected. Key words: tsunami; early warning system; policies; disasters; hazards

Corresponding address:
Dr. Yasamin O. Izadkhah Resilience Centre Cranfield University Defence Academy Shrivenham Swindon, SN6 8LA United Kingdom Tel: +44-1793-785125 Fax: +44-1793-780341 Email: Y.O.Izadkhah@rmcs.cranfield.ac.uk

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Current Status of Earthquake Risk Mitigation Activities in Istanbul


Mustafa Erdik
Bogazici University, Istanbul Turkey

Abstract: The earthquake master plan prepared for Istanbul has outlined the technical, social, administrative, legal and financial measures that need to be studied implemented for a comprehensive, coherent and sustainable mitigation of the earthquake risk in Istanbul. A pilot application of the masterplan is implemented in the Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul, encompassing a rigorous determination of the earthquake ground motion, structural assessment of the individual buildings at several levels of sophistication, earthquake performance assessment of individual buildings, specific socio-economic investigations and rehabilitation/strengthening alternatives. A new Worldbank funded program (ISMEP) has started for the retrofit of public buildings involving prioritization, retrofit design and retrofit construction. Several nationally funded projects aiming the mitigation of risk for bridges, viaducts and power plants have also been initiated.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Mustafa ERDIK Department of Earthquake Engineering Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Bogazici University 81220 Cengelkoy Istanbul Turkey Tel: +90-216-332-6560 Fax: +90-216-308-0163 Email: erdik@boun.edu.tr, deprem@superonline.com

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Control and Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in China


Huang Baoxu
China Epizootiology CenterCEC

Abstract: Due to a large number of virus subtypes, variation, wide host species and transboundary by wild birds carrying the viruses, it is very difficult to prevent and control avian influenza. Since the first outbreak of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza (HPAI) reported at Dingdang Town, Guangxi province on Jan. 27, 2004,. The Chinese Government has rapidly controlled the disease, prevented wild spreading and transmitting to human. 1. Establishment of Emergent Response Mechanism for Rapid Control of HPAI Outbreaks After outbreak of HPAI, the Chinese Government Immediately established the national instructing headquarter for HPAI control with vice premier Hui Liangyu as general director organized the national response system for HPAI which consisted of 10 Ministries and Departments of Agriculture, Health, Public Security; worked out the National Contingency Plan for Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza; Issued 11 technical standards for emergent treatment, Slaughtered 7.9614 million poultry of various species, and immunized 2.68 billion birds. 49 outbreaks were stamped out by March 16 of 2004. Within less than 2 months, the spreading of the disease was blocked and infection of human was effectively avoided, which indicated that measures for control of HPAI in China are scientific and effective. 2. Emphasis on Reconstruction after Disaster and Rapid Recovery of Development of poultry Industry The Chinese Government strictly implemented the compensation policies. The compensation prices for the slaughtered poultry were basically on the prices of the time, with a total amount of 100 million yuan (RMB) in 2004 (for HPAI). The State Council Office speculated 8 measures in Feb of 2004 to support poultry production, in order to minimize the adverse influences on the agriculture production and peoples life. The Ministries of Agriculture and Health called on the people to ensure clean food and water, and to face the disease with scientific attitude. With the implementation of these measures, the losses of peasants were reduced, life was kept in good order in the infected areas and peoples consume confidence was enhanced. The priced level of poultry products were approaching that prior to the outbreaks of HPAI in very short period of time, thus ensuring healthy development of poultry production. 3. Establishing Scientific Prevention and Control Strategy in Long Term, Raising the Level of Prevention and Control of AVI Bases on the comprehensive epidemiological survey, Ministry of Agriculture of China has realized the main risk factor, established a long term prevention and control strategy of enhancing water fowl vaccination in the water net areas of South China, intensifying water fowl surveillance and precaution, strengthening movement inspection and quarantine and improving poultry rearing conditions. The Chinese scientists have successfully developed two new type vaccines of H5N1 AIV, they can effectively prevent avian influenza virus infection and spreading, and are of great importance in prevention and control of avian influenza. Since July of 2004, no new case has been reported for 10 months. Later, outbreaks in Xinjiang and Qinghai provinces did not spread. All these showed that the strategy established in China is practical and effective.
Dr. Baoxu Huang China Epizootiology center No. 369, Nanjing Road 266032 Qingdao China Tel: +86-0532-85648014 Fax: +86-0532-85637237 Email:
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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

What Integrated Infectious Disease Assessment Teaches about Mitigating the Impact of New Disease Epidemics
Andrew Collins
School of Applied Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST,United Kingdom

Abstract: This paper provides comments applicable to SARS risk management with reference to a further rare disease (BSE/vCJD) that impacted on the UK in recent years, and with respect to the mass infectious diseases of other parts of the world. Infectious Disease Risk Management aims to avoid epidemics by reducing uncertainty in the targeting of effective interventions. It is a demand led response to finding more cost effective ways of avoiding outbreaks waiting to happen, and reducing the impact of those that ensue. An observation in contrasting the impact of recently emerging diseases of over-development, with those of under-development, is that the effects on society, economies and health relates to uncertainty about the disease hazard and vulnerability to it, not necessarily numbers of cases. Higher incidence occurs in the more certain contexts of underdevelopment. The numbers of those directly infected with vCJD were thankfully very low, and of SARS relatively low. For the old diseases of underdevelopment, there is much less uncertainty about the causes. For example, the diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, measles and malaria are continuously prevalent in the poorest parts of the world, joined recently by HIV/AIDS. Assessing how we can better mitigate the impact of new disease outbreaks requires improved integrated frameworks of analysis that help deconstruct the variable natures of health crises. Uncertainty in prediction, prevention, and control of an infectious disease is a function of gaps in understanding about pathogens, in people and places modified by politics and perception. We can further consider these aspects into the ecology of the disease and the political ecology of disease and health. It is argued that this integrated approach assess the varied components applicable to unique moments, individual locations, and in respect of varying vulnerability. It is also suggested that such an approach promotes more inclusive risk management, in particular recognising the value of community-based self-care. It may also be conducive to facilitating raised awareness in transboundary communication and coordination. Ultimately it will be both the reduction of uncertainty combined with commitment to action that demonstrates the value of integrated infectious disease risk management in avoiding and mitigating health disasters.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Andrew Collins Director Disaster and Development Centre Northumbria University 6 North Street East Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST United Kingdom Tel: +44-191-227-3583/3754 Fax: +44-191-227-4608 Email: Andrew.collins@unn.ac.uk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Crsis Management in the 21st Century, Unthinkable Events in Inconceivable Contexts


Patrick Lagadec
Laboratoire d'conomtrie, de l'cole Polytechnique, 75005 Paris, France

Abstract: Unbelievable, unthinkable, inconceivable the 21st century opens a new era in the field of risk and crisis management. Recent crises, including the unconventional 9/11 terrorist attacks, swift world-wide contamination by the SARS virus, continental blackouts which can occur within the space of a few seconds, the continent-wide effects of a tsunami in unstable geopolitical zones, all seem to differ fundamentally from the seminal cases which gave birth to crisis management studies in the 80s the tampering of Tylenol being the founding stone of the discipline. The trend seems to be accelerating, so that crises today are increasingly global, intertwined and non text-book events. The contents of the established crisis tool kit: risk analysis models, crisis management tools, text-book techniques, organisational check-lists and communication rules all seemed meritorious. Rightly so, because the lessons of the past still have their place. Failure to take them into consideration can ensnare any attempt at crisis management into the increasing complexities of the emerging crisis world, with potentially disastrous results. However, rear view mirror management is no solution, the discipline must move forwards. As observed by foresighted military strategists, the warning is clear: do not prepare to fight the last war. This contribution aims to clarify the issue, identify the traps and outline some creative lines of response and initiative. Key words: emerging crises; discontinuity; decision-making governance

Corresponding address:
Dr. Patrick Lagadec Director of Research Laboratoire d'conomtrie de l'cole Polytechnique UMR 7657 1 rue Descartes 75005 Paris France Tel: +331-55558242 / -47023136 E-mail : plagadec@club-internet.fr

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Improvement of Chinas Overall Capacity for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation through Scientific and Technological Progress
Yanhua Liu
Ministry of Science and Technology, P. R. China Institute of Geography Science and Natural Resources Research, CAS

Abstract: China is one of few countries suffering seriously from natural disasters, so it is of great importance to China in enhancing its overall capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation through scientific and technological progress. Over the years, China has made a lot of research achievements in monitoring, forecasting and disaster-release of floods, earthquakes, fires, volcanoes, as well as other meteorological, oceanic, agricultural and geological disasters. This has greatly improved Chinas scientific and technological capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, and remarkable achievements in disaster mitigation have been made. At the same time, it should be kept in mind that there are still a lot to do in scientific research on disaster prevention and mitigation. The earthquake and tsunami happened recently in the Indian Ocean have altered us again the importance of work in this aspect. According to Chinas experience and practical needs in the aspect of disaster prevention and mitigation, emphasis should be focused on following three aspects with regard to scientific and technological work in the near future. Firstly, research on disaster mechanism and relevant basic theories should be strengthened, disaster prevention technology and equipment should be researched and developed, disaster early-warning mechanism should be perfected and thus Chinas scientific and technical capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation should be improved. Secondly, construction of information sharing platform for disaster prevention and mitigation should be promoted, so as to provide solid foundation for scientific and technological research. Thirdly, better environment for scientific and technological research on disaster prevention and mitigation should be cultivated in great efforts, and a sound scientific and technological supporting system for disaster prevention and mitigation should be established.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Yanhua LIU Ministry of Science and Technology, 15B, Fuxing Road 100862 Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email:

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots: Transition to a Regional Approach


Arthur Lerner-Lam1, Maxx Dilley1,2, Robert Chen1
1. The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York 2. United Nations Development Program/DRU, Geneva

Abstract: The Hotspots Project is a collaborative study of the global distribution and occurrence of multiple natural hazards and the associated exposures of populations and their economic output. In this study we assess the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. We estimate risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at riskgridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. By calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole, we are able to estimate risk levels at sub-national scales. These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales. Mortality-related risks are assessed on a 2.5' x 2.5 latitude-longitude grid of global population (GPW Version 3). Economic risks are assessed at the same resolution for gridded GDP per unit area, using World Bank estimates of GDP based on purchasing power parity. Global hazard data were compiled from multiple sources. The project collaborated directly with UNDP and UNEP, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) at Columbia, and the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) in the creation of data sets for several hazards for which global data sets did not previously exist. Drought, flood and volcano hazards are characterized in terms of event frequency, storms by frequency and severity, earthquakes by frequency and ground acceleration exceedance probability, and landslides by an index derived from probability of occurrence. The global analysis undertaken in this project is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas. On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards. Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term land-use plans and multi-hazard risk management strategies. In addition to summarizing the results of the Hotspots Project, we discuss data collection issues and suggest methodological approaches for making the transition to more detailed regional and national studies. Preliminary results for several regional case studies will be presented.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Arthur Lerner-Lam Center for Hazards and Risk Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Earth Institute, Columbia University 61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964 USA Tel: +1-845-365-8356 Fax: +1-845-365-8150 Email: lerner@ldeo.columbia.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Recent Developments in Disaster Reduction R&D Promotion under "Implementation Strategies"


Hiroyuki Kameda
NIED 3-50 Umegaoka, Kyoto University, Kyoto 617-0841, Japan

Abstract: R&D promotion efforts since the previous workshop in Ravelo, 2004 and their outcomes are presented. The main keyword for during the efforts have and will consistently be "Implementation strategies", has evolved from a multilateral multi-disciplinary research project EqTAP ("Development of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technologies and Their Integration for the Asia-Pacific Region"/ five year project: April 1999-March 2004). The presentation will include organization and outcomes of Thematic Session 3.6 "Implementation Strategies for Application of Research and Development on Disaster Reduction" in the UN World Conference on Earthquake Reduction", and publishing "Disaster Reduction Technology List on Implementation Strategies" that was distributed in the UN-WCDR with a proposal for internationalizing it to a "World List". The presentation will also touch the APEC-EqTAP Seminar for Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Reduction, and APEC funded project, to be held on September 27-28 in Jakarta, Indonesia. These trends have motivated Japanese government to fund activities in the 2005 fiscal year to establish an international framework of collaboration for realization of "International Disaster Reduction Technology List on Implementation Strategies - a World List". A status-quo will be presented. The significance of the project and its desirable orientation will be discussed.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Hiroyuki Kameda Kyoto University National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) 3-50 Umegaoka, Nagaoka-kyo Kyoto 617-0841 Japan Tel: +81-75-955-5718 Fax: +81-75-955-5718 Email: kameda@bosai.go.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

How to Link Risk Financing with Cost-Effective Mitigation? Experiences and prospects
Reinhard Mechler
Internatinal Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria

Abstract: There is a great interest in pro-active disaster risk financing for developing countries, but the challenge is to design policies that combine risk financing with risk reduction, and that are affordable to developing country governments and its citizens. Innovative risk financing instruments have been proposed and a number of options are currently implemented for private and public sector risk financing, such as weather derivatives in India and Ethiopia, a contingent credit facility in Colombia and a catastrophe bond in Mexico. These innovative approaches render the private and public sectors more financially resilient to natural hazards and help with decreasing the developmental impacts of natural disasters. Furthermore, there is a linkage between risk financing and risk reduction, insofar as incentives for risk reduction, eg. by premium reduction can be provided. However, this link as of today is still very weak. Recent research has shown that the net benefits of loss reduction measures often are large (2-4 times the costs), however due to a number of factors there is often little incentive for undertaking those before the actual advent of a natural disaster. This paper explores the linkages between risk financing and loss reduction, examines implemented risk financing options with regard to the incentives provided for loss reduction, and proposes ways forward. Key words: risk financing; loss reduction; incentives.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Reinhard Mechler Risk, Modeling and Society IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg Austria Tel: +43-2236-807-313 Fax: +43-2236-807-466 Email: mechler@iiasa.ac.at

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Vulnerability to SARS and Remedials


Guang Zeng
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Abstract: The SARS crisis in 2003 exposed the problems of public sanitation system in China. However, it also provided an unprecedented chance for development of public sanitation system. The fight with SARS proved the importance of scientific prevention, mobilization of national departments, experts, news media and public, as well as good international cooperation. Whats more important, while posing great challenge on the construction of emergency system to emergent public sanitation events, monitoring, pre-alerting, contingent intervention of emergent public sanitation events, training of specialized team, as well as legislation, SARS crisis also brought a good opportunity for development in these areas. The importance of field epidemiology in emergent public sanitation events was also shown in the battle with SARS, when the students of field epidemiology played a very important role.

Corresponding address:
Porf. Guang Zeng Senior Researcher Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention No. 27, Nanwei Road, Xuanwu Distrcit Beijing China Tel: +86-10-63033030 Email: zeng4605@vip.sina.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Food Supply and Disaster in the 21st Century: Challenge and Opportunity for Integrated Disaster Risk Management
Ben Wisner1,2,3,4
1. Visiting Professor, DRS/ DPRI, Kyoto University; 2. Research Fellow, DESTIN, London School of Economics; 3. Research Fellow, Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London; 4. Visiting Professor of Environmental Studies, Oberlin College

Abstract: As observed at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, Japan earlier this year, vulnerability to disaster is growing year by year. At the same time, the processes that account for the increase in disaster vulnerability are interacting with two different, but related trends in the global food system. For most urban people, in an increasingly urbanized world, the food system is becoming more globalized. That is, sources of food are increasingly distant, often international, and the food chains that bring nutrients into peoples homes are becoming both more centralized and more complex. At the same time, in the rural hinterlands of many megacities, the formerly self-provisioning peasantry is in crisis. Many rural people cannot feed themselves adequately at all seasons and in every year, and for this reason are migrating to urban areas and depending on remittance of income from urban areas. Indeed, as a result of this polarity between rural and urban in the world today, the risk of food crisis is increased at BOTH ends. In Africa and parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America, international transportation of stable foods has become a routine part of life a crisis intervention that has turned chronic. These rural areas are not able to produce enough for their inhabitants, much less a surplus for primate and regional cities in these countries. So, in fact, the food security of urban dwellers is precarious a fact buffered by state policies encouraging cheap urban food. While the urban middle class may not feel the pain of hunger soon, the mass of low income urban people in what one observer has called the global slum do daily. High and rising crude oil prices (near U.S.$60 toward the end of June, 2005) will make it more expensive to transport stable foods long distances. China and Chinese cities, being now net grain importers on the world market, are among those vulnerability to food supply disruption. With these remarks on the geography and political economy of international food supply and distribution as background, my paper will explore the additional perturbations likely to be causes by climate change, unchecked continuation of current patterns of urbanization, and large future catastrophic events such as the Asian tsunami in 2004, the Tonankai earthquake expected off the coast of the Kansai region of Japan, or a repeat of any number of historical events such as the 1923 Tokyo-Yokohama earthquake. My conclusion is that nations should encourage urban agriculture, revitalization of rural areas and integrated rural development in order to regain at least partial national strategic food self reliance. Such steps can be shown to have additional benefits in moderating the effects of global environmental change and climate change as well as providing nature services such as protecting watersheds and biodiversity.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Ben Wisner London School of Economics 373 Edgemeer Place Oberlin, OH 44074 USA Tel: +1-440-775-1390 Fax: +1-440-775-8898 Email: bwisner@igc.org

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Outlook for Innovative Insurance Instruments in China


Peter Forstmoser1, Eric Gao2, Luzi Hitz3
1. Chairman of the Board, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Zurich, Switzerland 2. Co-author, General Manager, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Beijing Branch 3. Co-author, Head of Treaty Underwriting, Greater China, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Hong Kong

Abstract:An average of about 200 million people a year are affected by natural disasters in China. The economic fallout from these disasters is of a similar magnitude. The average annual cost of natural disasters in China over the past ten years amounts to almost RMB 160 bn (USD 19 bn). Furthermore, these losses are set to increase at a similar pace to the countrys rate of economic growth. As a result, single large events, such as a repetition of the large Tangshan earthquake of 1976, could today cause financial losses of more than RMB 600 bn (USD 70 bn). Catastrophe insurance cannot eradicate the terrible consequences of disasters. Its function is rather to promote risk mitigation measures and manage the post-disaster outcomes, ensuring that the economy and society recover quickly. As such, adequate natural catastrophe insurance is a key contributor towards strengthening the economic and social stability of a country. But what are adequate insurance solutions for disasters which can cost hundreds of billions of Renminbi? When dealing with this type of mega-loss, a national insurance market can easily be overpowered. In order to overcome such limitations, establishing a large risk-sharing community (a large pool of insurance policyholders) is critical. The domestic insurance industry typically enables and administers a national risk-sharing community. The global reinsurance industry, on the other hand, enables such a community on a global level. It creates a worldwide diversified portfolio of peak risks and hence absorbs domestic peak exposures. With this approach, even extreme loss potentials become insurable. A well-tested and proven solution in managing catastrophe risk is the establishment of insurance pools. In an insurance pool, similar types of property (eg residential property) are insured against catastrophic losses (eg earthquakes) using a standard insurance contract. The collected premium is pooled by the insurance pool administrator. Once a policyholder incurs an earthquake loss, money from the aggregated premium fund is used to pay for that loss. In addition to self-financing, the earthquake insurance pool buys insurance protection in the form of reinsurance -- to be able to withstand even very large earthquake losses. With this set-up, all policyholders in the insurance pool are fully protected from the financial consequences of even very large earthquake disasters. The greater the number of policyholders, the greater the benefit for the economy and society as a whole in the event of the next natural disaster. Currently, well below 5% of the economic losses from floods, typhoons and earthquakes are covered by insurance in China. The remaining portion is fully carried by individuals and, ultimately, by the state. However, it doesnt have to be this way. As a leading global reinsurer, Swiss Re has the expertise and experience to model potential losses from natural disasters and assist the national insurance industry and its regulating body in designing adequate insurance products to help absorb the financial shocks caused by catastrophic losses. Corresponding address: Prof. Peter Forstmoser Swiss Reinsurance Company Mythenquai 50/60 P. O. Box CH-8022 Zurich Switzerland Tel: +41 43 285 9615 Fax: +41 43 282 9615 Email: Peter_Forstmoser@swissre.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Assessing the Financial Management of Public Sector Disaster Risk: The Mexican Case
Victor Cardenas1, Stefan Hochrainer2, Reinhard Mechler2, Georg Pflug2
1.Ministery of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico 2. Internatinal Institute For Applied System Analysis, Austria

Abstract: The financial planning and management of natural disaster risk has become an important element of a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy. A number of developing countries such as Mexico, Colombia and India are engaging in setting up catastrophe reserve funds, arranging contingent credit arrangements or purchasing catastrophe bonds for public assets. Mexico is currently involved in issuing a catastrophe bond for its public sector liabilities. By way of this example, this paper discusses the benefits and issues for transferring sovereign risks to the capital or reinsurance markets. The present document analyzes two different alternatives to sovereign natural catastrophe risk hedging. The first one is a catastrophe bond or insurance backed security, which obtains its coverage funding from the capital markets. The second instrument analyzed is a catastrophe insurance alternative, where funding is obtained from the international reinsurance market. The paper takes two perspectives: The first part deals with the financial issues of transferring risk. A method to estimate the prime value for a catastrophe bond is proposed and contrasted to the prime value calculated by means of actuarial catastrophe insurance coverage calculations. Then, some portfolio optimization notions for an integrated strategy using both instruments are introduced, the objective being to maximize the protection from both instruments, and to minimize the associated cost of the transferring instruments ("rate on line"), i.e., prime value charged. In the second part, a broader socioeconomic perspective setting the financial management decision within the context of a public investment is taken: using the IIASA CATSIM model, the costs and benefits of using the capital markets vs. reinsurance markets for hedging public sector liabilities are analyzed. The model is run in simulation and optimization modes, and Monte-Carlo-Simulation is used to generate the scenarios for a time horizon of 10 years into the future. Finally the paper concludes with a summary of the major results obtained from these two perspectives. Key words: financial disaster risk management; catastrophe modeling; cat bond

Corresponding address:
Mr. Victor Cardenas Santiago Deputy Director Ministry of Finance (SHCP) Direccion General de Seguros y Valores 4068 Oficina, Palacio Nacional, 06066 Mxico, D.F. Tel: +525-91-58-15-23 Fax: +525-91-58-13-46 Email: victor_cardenas@hacienda.gob.mx

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Linking Financial Instruments with Mitigation


Charles Scawthorn
Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501 JAPAN

Abstract: Disasters are generally seen in terms of their human and physical destruction, but rarely understood to be a result of underlying deficiencies in the economic and financing infrastructure of the affected region. That is, the physical destruction is due not so much to lack of technology, but rather to non-application of the technology due to lack of political and financial means to implement the technology. This was most recently tragically emphasized in the Asian Tsunami of 26 December 2004, in which the earthquake was detected within minutes at seismological observatories around the world, yet no warnings provided, so that tens of thousands of people died hours later in Sri Lanka, India and elsewhere. No tsunami warning system exists in the tsunamigenic basins such as the Indian or Atlantic oceans, except for the Pacific the technology exists, but is not applied. In the Asian Tsunami and other disasters, the great majority of financing disaster is Ex-Post the financing of disasters after the fact, in a most inefficient manner. Emergency reconstruction loans for example have totaled over $38 billion over the last 20 years. A much more efficient approach is Ex-Ante risk financing combined with physical risk reduction measures. That is, the bulk of donor and development aid is devoted to improving physical and social infrastructure. However, in designing a funding vehicle, if the natural hazard risk charge (ie, actuarial cost of the earthquake, wind or flood damage) is included in the overall financing, with associated insurance or contingent credit, then a new vehicle is created in which the natural hazard risk is first transferred, and then built down to an acceptable level. In the early part of the term of the financing, a significant part of the finance cost is allocated to risk transfer but, as the risk is mitigated by improved physical and social infrastructure, then the risk is reduced with time, and less of the financing cost is used for risk transfer. The result is a single combined financial vehicle that has two tranches, financial protection and physical protection, which vary during the life of the instrument, as one form of protection replaces the other. This is a new concept, and has high potential in developing economies for reducing the impacts of natural disasters. Key words: integrated disaster risk management; mitigation, finance

Corresponding address:
Prof. Charles SCAWTHORN Department of Urban Management Kyoto University Yoshida Honmachi Sakyo-ku 606-8501 Kyoto Japan Tel: +81-75-753-5131 Fax: +81-75-762-2005 Email: cscawthorn@worldnet.att.net

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Using Index-Based Risk Transfer Mechanisms in Developing Countries


Hector Ibarrapando
Progress is being made in creating risk transfer markets for weather events in developing and emerging economies. These types of risks are highly correlated and require special financing and access to global markets to pool the risk and make them more diversifiable, improving the pricing. In particular, using index insurance products, it is possible to organize systems to take advantage of global markets and transfer out of developing countries the correlated risks associated with low-probability, high-consequence events. While global markets that provide reinsurance for natural disasters are both large and growing, they rarely have an interest in taking such risk from developing and emerging economies. In part this is because primary insurance markets are weak in developing countries. Before agreeing to provide reinsurance, global reinsurers engage in due diligence investigations of primary insurers and the risks the primary insurers wish to transfer. Compared to traditional insurance products, index insurance has far fewer hidden information and hidden action problems. This reduces the reinsurers due diligence and underwriting costs and makes it more likely that they will be interested in accepting natural disaster risk from new insurance providers in developing countries. Nonetheless, natural disaster losses can be significant, and carefully crafted ways to finance such losses are also critical preconditions for shifting the risk into global markets. Innovation in pooling these risks globally may also facilitate the transfer of natural disaster risk from developing countries.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Hector IBARRAPANDO Commodity Risk Management Group Agriculture and Rural Development MC5-514 The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20433 USA Tel: +1-202-473-9160 Fax: +1-202-522-5718 Email: hibarrapando@worldbank.org

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The World Bank Institute Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Learning Program
Katalin Demeter
The World Bank Institute, Washington DC 20433, USA

Abstract: Coordinated efforts of donor and international agencies, intensive research and analytical work, new and promising local initiatives in hazard management practices led to the wealth of knowledge in disaster risk management. The broad based use of this knowledge by development practitioners requires: i) conversion of this knowledge base into structured learning products adjusted to specific needs of the key players in disaster risk management; ii) targeted and efficient dissemination strategy; and iii) improved and strengthened human and technical implementation capacity. To address the above challenges, the World Bank Institute with support from the World Bank Hazard Management Unit and ProVention Consortium has developed a Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Learning Program. The development and the dissemination are based on extensive partnership and use of new technology in order to translate the global knowledge to local agenda in proactive disaster risk management. At present, the basic program comprises of five courses: an introductory course and four specialization courses. The introductory course, Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework is mandatory for anyone who wants to take one or more specialization courses. Specialization courses are covering topics from financial risk management to damage and reconstruction needs assessment. Each course advocates for importance of proactive risk reduction and targets specific segment of development practitioners. Stemming from the program design, the number of core courses is expanding rapidly. Partner institutions in client countries are working on customized versions of the program. In addition, responding to requests from partners, new specialization courses are under development, such as earthquake mitigation, communication and early warning systems, environmental management and disaster risk reduction. The presentation briefly reviews the concept and structure of the program, the content and target audience of specific courses and reports about the experience of the pilot offering of the program. It will present the strategy in building partnerships with local institutions in disseminating the courses, incorporating local, specific and customized knowledge into learning materials, and the ways to enhance the capacity of partner institutions in offering on-line learning products. The presentation will also demonstrate how distance learning can contribute to horizontal knowledge exchange, cross fertilization and to creation of communities of practice. The presentation will end by discussing the different options to expand the program coverage with new methods, topics and issues in order to prepare the new generation of policy makers to meet the challenge of disaster risk reduction.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Katalin Demeter Finance and Private Sector Development, World Bank Institute, MSN J3-304 1818 H Street, NW, Washington DC 20433, USA Tel: +1-202-458-4673 Fax: +1-202-679-9874 Email: KDemeter@worldbank.org

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Video Tools for Community-Level Disaster Risk Reduction: Developing Awareness and Training through Audiovisual Media
Pablo Suarez
Department of Geography, Boston University, Boston MA 02215, USA

Abstract: There is a need to accelerate the dissemination of information and ideas that can facilitate processes of disaster risk reduction at the community level. This is particularly relevant when predictable extreme events such as floods or tropical cyclones threaten impoverished regions. Regrettably, the most vulnerable sectors of the global population rarely derive benefit from climate forecasts, either because the information doesnt reach them, or because insufficient knowledge or resources preclude their ability to respond adequately. Advances in access to digital technology offer a superb opportunity to use audiovisual media for raising awareness, supporting capacity building, enhancing the communication of information and the transfer of best practices, and improving participatory processes for disaster preparedness. Building on experiences involving the use of film in the context of adaptation to climate variability and change among subsistence farmers and shantytown dwellers in Argentina, Bangladesh, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, this work explores the potential of innovative video tools for supporting community-level disaster risk management. Three approaches are discussed: (a) short documentaries for targeted audiences, (b) training videos for accelerating capacity building in hazard-prone regions, and (c) audiovisual tools to enhance participatory processes in vulnerable communities.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Pablo Suarez Dept. of Geography Boston University 675 Commonwealth Ave. Boston MA 02215 USA Tel: +1-508-358-5204 Fax: +1-617-353-8399 Email: suarez@bu.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

About the Last-Mile Programme for Disaster Risk Reduction Education in Algeria
Djillali Benouar
Built Environment Res. Lab, USTHB, Alger 16111, Algeria

Abstract: Last mile is a terminology for telecommunications technology that carries signals from the broad telecommunication along the relatively short distance to and from the home or business. The word, last mile, is used to represent the practical programs to connect disaster risk reduction education with the needs of governments, civil societies and industries. The reason for us to use this term is that disaster risk reduction education very often is too theoretical rather than practical orientation in Algeria and several others countries across the world. It appears very important to design the programme, here refers to last-mile programme, for students to take so that upon achievement of their study, students can meet the needs of governments, civil societies and industry. This article uses expert discussion to set up the last-mile programme development model for the use of disaster risk reduction education in Algeria. The model includes three components: school guidance, curriculum planning and government and industry supporting systems. School guidance is to set up students case, and offer career messages and allocation. Curriculum planning comprises analysing the competency discrepancy, developing curriculum, implementing instruction, offering job opportunity and evaluating the program. Civil societies, governments and industrial supporting systems includes assisting curriculum planning, offering equipment and facility, helping practical teaching, and offering positions in disaster risk reduction. The paper illustrates the details of the project of the last-mile programme in disaster risk reduction in Algeria.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Djillali Benouar Built Environment Res. Lab.(LBE) University of Bab Ezzouar (USTHB) Faculty of Civil Engineering, BP 32 El-Alia/ Bab Ezzouar, Alger 16111, Algeria Tel & Fax: +213 21 247 914/247 224 Mobile: +213 71 842 428 E-mail: dbenouar@yahoo.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Moving Towards Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Conclusions form the EE-21C (Earthquake Engineering in the 21th Century Conference)
Mihail Garevski
Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology, University "Ss.Cyril and Methodius"

Corresponding address:
Prof. Mihail GAREVSKI Director 73, Salvador Aliende Str. P.O. Box 101 1000 Skopje Republic of Macedonia Tel: +389-2-317-6155 Fax: +389-2-311-2163 Email: garevski@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Enhancing the Effectiveness of Integrated Disaster Risk Management: The Role of Case Stations and Field Campuses
Norio Okada1, Peijun Shi2, Chennat Gopalakrishnan3, Rajib Shaw4
1. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan; 2. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; 3. Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822-2279; 4. Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan

Abstract: Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRM) is gaining rapid recognition as the technique of choice for action in the disaster prevention field by virtue of its many tried and tested attributes for brining science, technology, and policy into a powerful confluence. By IDRM, we mean regional, socio-cultural, context-based synergistic risk management or adaptive risk management based on open channel communication and free flow of information, ideas, and insights. A careful review of facts and data pertaining to disaster management in different parts of the world, however, provides many examples of repeated failures in the implementation of the theory and principles embodied in IDRM. This clearly points to the need for significant additional work in disaster management education focusing on effective implementation. The purpose of our paper is to identify, discuss, and analyze the pivotal role of Case Stations and Field Campuses in enhancing the effectiveness of implementing IDRM. We argue in this paper that successful implementation is closely intertwined with the timely availability of reliable, sound, and robust information on a steady, uninterrupted basis to those entrusted with the task of integrated risk management. This is simply not possible under the conventional Case Study approach. Hence, the need for establishing Case Stations which will continually monitor information in an uninterrupted fashion, allowing for the incorporation of changes as and when they occur. Discontinuities in the flow of information are minimized; local, national, and regional differences are accounted for; and accessibility is ensured. Field Campuses serve as living laboratories, fields of learning singularly well-suited for testing, adapting, and refining data generated by the Case Stations, incorporating local input through a participatory process. This contrasts sharply from the conventional top-down approach and should prove to be far more effective in generating and sustaining data and information of a far higher quality than anything available today. In brief, Case Stations and Field Campuses complement each other and together they could contribute to dramatic improvements in IDRM implementation. Key words: case stations; field campuses; IDRM; effective implementation

Corresponding address:
Prof. Norio Okada Division of Integrated Management for Disaster Risk, Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan tel: +81-774-38-4035 fax: +81-774-38-4044 Email: okada@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Status Quo of Case-Station and Field-Campus in Japan Osaka University and KOBE since 1995
Tomohide Atsumi, Mashiho Suga
Center for the Study of Communication-Design, Osaka University, Osaka, 565-0826, Japan;

Abstract: A project team (i.e., Communication-Design for Disaster Mitigation) at the Center for the Study of Communication-Design (CSCD) has played a role of (sub-) case-station. Since authors have been investigating disaster volunteers in Kobe since the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, Kobe is one of our field-campuses. The present study introduces collaboration between case-station and field-campus and explores its practical and theoretical implications. A case-station monitors the whole cycle of disaster at a local community. While monitoring Kobe, we have been developing some communication-design tools for disaster mitigation. For example, we have collaborated with Nippon Volunteer Network Active in Disaster and (re-)developed a workshop for children to learn disaster prevention in their own community and examined its practical and theoretical implications for disaster mitigation. As a case-station, we are planning to analyze theoretical implications of these activities and produce a curriculum for communication-design for disaster mitigation for students and researchers. Field-campus provides students and researchers with opportunities to have direct access to disaster fields to learn activities in the field. In Kobe, there are non-profit organizations focusing on disaster relief in and from Kobe (e.g., for Bam, Iran), reconstruction of community, and disaster prevention as well as sharing experiences of disaster by storytelling and exhibition at a museum. As a field-campus, we keep close contact with various agencies in Kobe and produce ways of on-site learning. Theoretically, we focus on styles of dialogue among victims and supporters from the perspective of group dynamics, especially on the 1st and 2nd modes of practical collaboration (Sugiman, 2005). We believe that the paradigm of case-station and field-campus and group dynamics promote disaster studies as an implementation science. Key words: Case-Station, Field-Campus, 1995 Kobe earthquake, group dynamics, implementation science

Corresponding address:
Dr. Tomohide Atsumi Graduate School of Human Sciences Osaka University 1-2 Yamadaoka Suita Osaka 565-0871 Japan Tel: +81-6-6879-8066 Fax: +81-6-6879-8066 Email: atsumi@hus.osaka-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Trapezoid Framework for Integrated Risk Management to Frightful Catastrophes


Chongfu Huang1,2, Tian Zong1,2
1. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, The Ministry of Education of China, No.19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: It is generally acknowledged that integrated risk management is a management cycle organized of risk prevention and preparedness before the disaster, emergency response and recovery at and after it. Technically speaking, this cycle is practical in which the work involved at each phrase is intensively studied by researchers in this field. However the scientific merit of the cycle is merely embodied in the marriage of the three phrases. Therefore, a new structure for integrated risk management is highly demanded, which would hopefully boost the development of risk management. In this paper, we suggest a trapezoid framework for the integrated risk management aimed at frightful catastrophes. The framework is composed of risk perception, quantifying analysis and optimizing decision making from the bottom up. Risk perception, the social root of integrated risk management, involves culture concept, social structure and legislation, etc.; quantifying analysis, which embraces all scientific and technological contents of risk analysis, is the support of integrated risk management; optimizing decision making including risk management decision-making system and its objectives is the terminal of integrated risk management. It is apparent that the social module, technology module and terminal module are all rich in contents within oneself, and moreover the relations between each two are diverse. The extent to which the three modules reach is distinctively reduced in sequence and a platform is shaped above the terminal module. Thereby the framework made of these modules is a trapezoid form. In this sense, integrated risk management cycle is made up of certain elements from the trapezoid framework; five-floor-tower structure is a formalized objective that the trapezoid framework manages. In a word, the trapezoid framework for integrated risk management is a measure of management and the materialized system is the carrier of management procedure. Correspondingly, risk management cycle, an interpretation of existing phenomenon, is neither a measure nor a carrier. Key words: risk management; risk perception; quantifying analysis; decision making

Corresponding address:
Prof. Chongfu Huang College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, No.19 Xinjiekouwai Street 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58805479 Fax: +86-10-58805479 Email: nortzw@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Decision Support Tools for Managing Rising Disaster Risk: A Survey


Keping Chen
Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia

Abstract: Effective disaster risk assessment and management demands an integrative and multidisciplinary approach. This talk begins by describing a generic conceptual framework of integrative risk assessment, which can be easily understood by the public and could be used to guide the impact assessment of all perilous events or phenomena be they natural hazards, man-made hazards (e.g., industrial pollution, terrorism), or infectious diseases (e.g., Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome SARS, Avian Influenza Bird Flu). The remainder of the talk will cover some mainstream approaches and tools for integrative risk assessment of natural hazards. Examples of decision support tools include (1) databases; (2) risk ratings; and (3) catastrophe modelling. These tools are now widely used in the insurance industry (direct insurers and reinsurance companies) to price and better understand risk as well as by various government agencies. Case studies from Australia, the USA, and China will be demonstrated. The importance of good-quality disaster databases, data sharing by the stakeholders and the application of innovative data mining and geospatial analysis methods to real-world risk management will also be highlighted. Key words: integrative risk assessment; databases, risk ratings; catastrophe modeling; insurance; reinsurance.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Keping Chen Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre Macquarie University 2109 Sydney, NSW Australia Tel: +61-2-985-09473 Fax: +61-2-985-09394 Email: kchen@els.mq.edu.au

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Spatial Temporal GIS with Multi Language Basis as a Common Platform for Disaster Information Management Applying ST-GIS to Recovery Process of Local Government after Niigata-Cyuetsu Earthquake
Shigeru Kakumoto, Hiroyuki Yamada, Takashi Furuto, Naofumi Sasaki
Kawasaki Laboratory /EDM / NIED

Abstract: RARMIS(Risk Adaptive Regional Management Information System) concept has been proposed after HANSHIN Earthquake which is mentioning importance of smooth connection between daily tasks and emergency tasks at local government. Spatial temporal GIS is developed to realize the RARMIS concept. Tasks of local government of emergency are analyzed to find combination of components of daily tasks. Some tasks require higher accuracy in location after the earthquake such requirement as identification of each construction which is managed by the address of main building in daily tasks. Map based data management allows detailed objects identification as well as address base location description. Lifeline data also can be managed as map database. Change information management is basically required to local government such as tax, inhabitant, etc. data management. Map based data management is quite effective for tasks of recovery process of Niigata-Cyuetsu local government. Spatial temporal positioning can be used commonly in most of the countries, while address systems are different. Additional Requirement to the system for international use is man machine interface which is local language expression basis. Spatial temporal GIS of Japanese version named DiMSIS-EX is extended to adopt multi language support. One common application program can be used with any language only add the conversion table of language for interpretation. DiMSIS-EX takes open architecture for database structure and system development. Common system for disaster prevention leads good collaboration in countermeasure after extreme natural disaster such as Sumatra earthquake. Common system developed by researchers can be used in local government and research without paying expensive license fee to companies abroad. This activity has a possibility to give a chance to evoke new industries and joint activities for researchers and industries in each country. International collaboration in development of the common platform using DiMSIS-EX is on going with Turkey, China, Philippines and Nepal research groups. In the future possibly with Iran and Korea and others.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Shigeru Kakumoto National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken 305-0006, Japan Tel: +81-44-329-1136 Fax: +81-44-329-1135 Email: kaku@aa.mbn.or.jp

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Parallel Session 1
Risk Assessment and Modeling

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Compilation of City Natural Disaster Regionalization in China


Jingai Wang 1, Peijun Shi 2, Ying Wang 2, Baojun Li 3, Chunyan Yang 1, Xiangsheng Yi 1, Jue Wang 2
1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences of Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Regional Geography of Beijing Normal University. Beijing 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Beijing Normal University, MOE; 3. National Disaster Reduction Center, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, Beijing 100721, China)

Abstract: Based on the disaster system theory and the China Natural Disaster Database, the paper set up the CL index that reflected the city hazard-affected bodies and the QC index that reflected the intensity of the city hazard-formative factors. And according to the relations between the calculating model and the series disaster maps which are created by the digital map technology, the QL index that integrated reflected the city hazard-affected bodies and the intensity of the city hazard-formative factors can be quantitative assessed. It provides the science base for the The city natural disaster regionalization in China research of city disastrous risk and affected risk of natural disaster. According to the 5 regionalization principle and the integrated assessment of the QL and some experiential knowledge, the regionalization results are as fellow: There are 3 regions: Coastal cities disaster region, Eastern cities disaster region and Western cities disaster region.15 subregions and 22 units. The regional characteristic of city natural disaster of China illustrated that the coastal region is the high frequency disastrous area of China. Meanwhile, the most developed region in China also is the coastal region. So the China government must pay more attention to the work of prevent disaster and relief disaster in coastal cities disaster region. Keywords: China city; integrated urbanization level; Integrated intensity of natural disaster; natural disaster regionalization

Corresponding address:
Prof. Jing- ai Wang College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University; 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58807454-1632 Fax: +86-10-58807454-1632 Email: sqq@bnu.edu.cn

Projected supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40271005); National 985 Project (Policy of Public Safety of Beijing Normal University); National Key Basic Research and Development Program (No. 2006CB400505) 31

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Framework of Economic Loss Estimation of Transportation Network Disruption Caused by an Earthquake


Hirokazu TATANO1 and Satoshi TSUCHIYA 2
1Ph.D. (Engineering) Professor, Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Division of Integrated
Management for Disaster Risk (E-mail: tatano@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp) 2M.Eng. (Civil Engineering), Kyoto University, Graduate School of Engineering, Dept. of Urban Management (E-mail: tsuchiya@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp)

Abstract: This paper presents an analytical framework to estimate economic losses due to transport network disruption caused by an earthquake. It is critical to distinguish damage flows and stock damages as well as direct and indirect losses. A damage flow is estimated in monetary term based on differences between welfare levels with the occurrence of a disaster and without it for each time stage after disaster occurred. Stock damages are losses of stocks destroyed by the disaster. The value of a stock is coincident with the present value of a cash flow that the stock yields over time. At the first part, the paper shows the consistent way to sum up a damage flow and stock damages without any double counting of the losses. In the second part, a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model is formulated to assess the inter-regional spillovers of direct damages through transportation networks. An earthquake changes the network structure and performances of transportation networks and activities of production and consumption. The SCGE model can estimate indirect economic losses triggered by an earthquake and show their distribution in Japanese economy, taking account of increase of transport costs in highways and railways. In the last part, a case study is conducted to estimate the effect of the development of highway and railway networks and examines effect of the redundancy of transportation networks focusing on anticipated Tokai Earthquake scenarios.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Dr. Hirokazu TATANO Division of Integrated Management for Disaster Risk Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 Japan Tel: +81-774-38-4308 Fax: +81-774-38-4044 Email: tatano@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Households Choice on Reconstruction of a Damaged House after an Earthquake Characteristics of Decisions and Effects of Subsidies
Hiroyuki Sakakibara1, Hitomi Murakami2, Sakae Esaki3, Hisayoshi Nakata4
1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yamaguchi University, Ube, Japan 2. Department of Computer Science and Systems Engineering, Yamaguchi University, Ube, Japan 3. Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University, Ube, Japan 4. KDI Corporation, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract: Reconstruction of damaged houses plays a critical role in revitalization of a region after natural disasters. Since reconstruction of houses depends on individuals decisions, not only physical factors such as damage level, but also social and economic factors affect choices. In order to design effective policies for promoting reconstruction, it is essential to know characteristics of these choices. In this study, households choices on reconstruction of damaged houses were surveyed. Surveyed areas were the damaged areas of Tottori-Seibu Earthquake (2000) and Miyagi-Hokubu Earthquake (2003). Both earthquakes occurred in Japan after Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. Households were asked about ages of members, lifetime of a house, damage level, etc. as well as choice on reconstruction of a house (rebuilding, repair, no actions). After these earthquakes, regional government introduced subsidies for reconstruction and repairing of damaged houses. Households were also asked about hypothetical choice in case such subsidies were not provided. In Tottori region, subsidy had a positive impact on choices of the households whose houses were heavily damaged. On the other hand, subsidy did not have a significant impact in Miyagi region. The reason of such differences in effects of subsidies is discussed in this study. Using survey data, discrete choice models on households actual and hypothetical choices were constructed. Parameter estimation results showed that lifetime of a house, damage level and characteristics of a household (existence of children, elderly peoples household etc.) affect households choices on rebuilding. Similarity between choices in both regions was also found. Key words: reconstruction of damaged houses; subsidies for reconstruction; Tottori-Seibu and Miyagi-Hokubu Earthquakes

Corresponding address:
Dr. Hiroyuki Sakakibara Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Yamaguchi University 2-16-1 Tokiwadai 755-8611 Ube, Yamaguchi, Japan Tel: +81-836-85-9355 Fax: +81-836-85-9301 Email: sakaki@yamaguchi-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Disaster Risk Finance: Existing Models and Next Steps


Koko Warner, Walter Ammann, Laurens Bouwer
WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland

Abstract: In recent years, various initiatives have called attention to the possible role financial services (including banking services and insurance) in managing disaster risk. Disaster risk poses serious obstacles to obtaining the Millenium Development Goals. Disaster risk is also one of the central manifestations of climate change: rapid-onset events such as flooding, hurricanes and major storms and slow-onset events such as drought are some of the types of weather-related disasters that challenge communities today. The financial services sector can, in partnership with other actors, offer solutions to help communities adapt to and reduce these types of risk. Some limited disaster finance schemes are becoming available, such as partnerships with NGOS, insurance companies, or local savings and credit institutions. Activities are now divided between disaster risk management, climate adaptation, and financial services groups. Yet many challenges remain: Efforts are dispersed and not widely shared between groups. There are few clear statements about what still needs to be known to improve the design of products and provision of financial services to communities facing disaster risk. It is uncommon to link activities in disaster risk reduction with financial services. There is a gap between the supply and demand of financial services at the local level. This paper offers some direction about specific ways that the public and private sectors, and other partners can improve finance alternatives for extreme climate events at the community level. This paper discusses current models and experiences using financial services at the community level. It discusses the costs and benefits of each of the four models presented, including an overview of what tools are currently used, and the up and downsides of using each of these tools to manage disaster risk at the community leve. Next, the paper analyses some of the major issues each model must deal with to facilitate appropriate financial services locally. These issues include attitudes and incentives surrounding the provision and use of financial services for disaster risk management, the necessary framework including regulatory and legislative structures, and product design and implementation issues. The paper concludes with a discussion of next steps and activities to further the availability and use of financial services to help communities manage and reduce disaster risk.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Koko Warner WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Flelastrasse 11 CH-7260 Davos Dorf Switzerland Tel: +41-81-417-0202 Fax: +41-81-417-0111 Email: warner@slf.ch

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Risk Assessment and Regionalization for Debris-Flow Disaster Insurance in Mountainous Area in Beijing
Li Liu1, Shige Wang2
1. Department of Economics Mathematics, South Western University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu 610074, China, 2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Conservancy, Chengdu 610041, China

Abstract: The Assessment and regionalization for the debris-flow disasters insurance are determination of the insurance premium. Debris flow is one of the main natural hazards in mountainous area in Beijing. For example, the economic loss caused by debris-hazards reached to 0.309 billion yuan between 1989 and 1999. Just in 1999, the economic loss had reached to 0.26 billion yuan. Risk assessment for debris flow disaster insurance takes three steps: firstly, dividing risk districts; then, judging hazard risk and vulnerability of risk districts, and finally, calculating the degree of each risk district by mathematic model of natural hazards risk analysis. The risk districts are divided according to debris-flow risk zoning, and the risk grade are taken as indices of judging risk degree. Four indices are selected: gross domestic production value, capital assets, density of population, and the increase rate of population. Assessment index is calculated according to the ward (county) of Beijing, value of the assessment index in every risk district takes county area as averaging weight. The disasters loss disposition assessment has two levels, the first is economic and social loss disposition assessment, judged respectively by GDP and capital assets, and by the density and increase rate of population in the risk region; the second level is debris flow disaster loss disposition assessment which is on the base of the first one. At last, the risk degree of the insurance of debris-flow hazards is calculated by mathematic model of natural hazards risk analysis, and a regionalization map of the debris-flow risk disasters insurance hazards in Beijing is drawn. Key words: beijing mountainous;debris-flow disaster insurance risk; assessment and regionalization

Corresponding address: Prof. Liu Li

Department of Economics Mathematics, South Western University of Finance and Economics 610041 Chengdu China Tel: 028 85213604 Fax: 028 85221893 Email: liuli1094@126.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Flood Evacuation Information System for Citizens and Local Government Evacuation Planning based on Social Welfare Maximization
Akiyoshi Takagi1, Tomohiro Yamada2
1. Department of Civil Engineering, Gifu University, Gifu, 501-1193, Japan 2. Environment and Disaster Prevention Division, Tamano Consultants Co. Ltd. Nagoya, 461-0005, Japan

Abstract: Recently, several local governments are re-examining the evacuation plan as a trigger of making a flood hazard map in Japan.In this study, we developed the flood evacuation information system which can draw up the evacuation plan based on the social welfare maximization of citizens, for citizens and a local government using GIS (Geographic Information System). Specifically, this system which supports the evacuation planning for local government, can determine a location and a scale of evacuation facilities and quantity of relief goods in an evacuation facility in advance while considering the property of evacuating person, especially disaster vulnerable people, such as an elderly people. Beside that, this system can provide citizens with useful information concerning an evacuation facility and route which are recommended that citizens use while approaching a flood and also in advance. As a result of applying this system to an actual area, we show the improved plan which is more efficient and equitable than the previous evacuation plan about the location and scale of evacuation facilities.
Flood Evacuation Information System
Start Sub-system 1: Predicting inundation Sub-system 2: Extracting available evacuation facilities and routes Extracting households that should evacuate Sub-system 3: Determining the optimal evacuation facility and route to each household Sub-system 4: Displaying the optimal evacuation facilities and routes End Inundation depth Network of road
width of road

GIS dat a base

Evacuation facility

Evacuation route

Household and building


Number of floor Kind of structure Number per household

Evacuation facilities
Number of floor Kind of structure Available area Relief goods

e.t.c Evacuation information Evacuation planning e.t.c.

Key words: evacuation information; evacuation planning; social welfare maximization

Corresponding address:
Dr. Eng. Akiyoshi Takagi Associate Professor Department of Civil Engineering, Gifu University 1-1, Yanagido, Gifu, 501-1193, Japan Tel: +81-58-293-2445 Fax: +81-58-230-1248 Email: a_takagi@cc.gifu-u.ac.jp

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Parallel Session 2
Floods: Innovations in Science and Policy

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Impacts of Human Interventions on Hydrological Risk at the Catchment Scale


H.P. Nachtnebel
Dept. of Water-Atmosphere-Environment, Univ. of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Muthg. 18, A-1190 Vienna, Austria

Abstract: The hydrological characteristics of high mountain basins is subjected to several different influences originating from direct human intervention and also from climate change. The human interventions refer to the development of large storage schemes for hydropower together with water abstractions and diversion schemes reducing remarkably the runoff in many small creeks. Also, winter tourism changed the water balance in small catchments where numerous ponds have been developed to serve water demands for artificial snow production. The changes in land use pattern like decrease of mountain pastures followed by an increase of forested areas contributed also to changes in the runoff regime. Further impacts on the hydrological cycle are due extension of housing areas, channelisation of rivers and other infra-structural development. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the observed hydrological changes in the Alpine region and to identify the types of intervention into the water cycle. The consequences with respect to hydrological extremes like floods and low flow periods are analysed as well as changes in the water balance. Hydrological models are developed to describe various human interventions. Different extreme hydrological events are simulated under different land use scenarios and conclusions are drawn with respect to recent settings in the basin. Besides direct human interventions an increase of temperature is observed throughout the Alps. This causes a shorter snow cover in the mid altitudes of the mountains and a decrease in the mass balance of glaciers. In some basins a clear trend in the runoff pattern has been already identified. A downscaling approach is being applied to study the behaviour of the basin under climate change.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Hans Peter Nachtnebel Institute for Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering (IWHW) Dept. for Water-Atmosphere-Environment University for Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU) Muthgasse 18 A-1190 Vienna Austria Tel: +43-1-36006-5500 / 550 Fax: +43-1-36006-5549 Email: hans_peter.nachtnebel@boku.ac.at

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Global Implications from the Analysis of Abnormal Rainfall Phenomena on Various Spatio-Temporal Scales Ranging to Basin Characteristics
Eiichi Nakakita1, Kinji Yoshimoto2
1. Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto UniversityKyoto, 611-0011, Japan; 2. Department of Global Environment Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto UniversityKyoto, 606-8501

Abstract: Last year, a strategy of investigating spatio-temporal distribution of occurrence of abnormally large rainfall was presented taking characteristics of target river basins into consideration. Also, results from analyzing the abnormality depending mainly on duration of point-rainfall were presented. Namely, it was presented not only that spatial percentage of abnormal rainfall is recently increasing, but also that we can guess such behavior might have relation to El Nino phenomena, although behavior of rainfall in short-range is different from rainfall in lager time scales. In the fifth annual IIASA-DPRI meeting, the followings will further be presented; By the analysis on rainfall amount averaged over areas ranging from 0.5 degree times 0.5 degree to two degrees times two degrees, occurred abnormality sometimes increases as the spatial scale becomes larger. In that case, large river basin becomes critical. Time series of spatial percentage and spatial distribution of occurring abnormal rainfall shows the relation to that of El Nino phenomena. Also, the time series show that variability in globally averaged rainfall is not so large than that of occurrence of abnormally large rainfall. In 2004, Japan was suffered from various disasters due to heavy rainfall. Among such cases, there was a case that rainfall amount in a few hours was quite abnormal (estimated probability of exceedance was more than three hundreds years), although total amount was not so abnormal. The time duration of a few hours was critical for the run-off system of the river basin which was suffered from the flood disaster. Staff of local government and resident who went through such an abnormal rainfall have become to believe that it would occur even in next year. For them, the abnormal event is no longer abnormal. It is already normal. Climatologists do not think that the global warming will make our current climate system jump into another equilibrium state, rather they think that current abnormal event become normal event. Key words: abnormal rainfall; global warming; global; regional, recognition of resident

Corresponding address:
Prof. Eiichi Nakakita Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011 Japan tel: +81-774-38fax: +81-774-38-4044 Email: nakakita@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

An Optimal Design Scheme of In-floodplain Mitigation Measures to Maximize Success Rate of Evacuation
Tomoharu Hori, Michiharu Shiiba
Dept. of Global Environmental Studies & Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Japan

Abstract: Although a lot of effort has been devoted to keep flood water into river channel with the result of relatively high security to flood disasters in Japan, it is often pointed out that there is still danger of flood disasters. This is partially because facility-based flood control system is quite expensive and so its construction takes a lot of time. But recently we have to note that there is a possibility that the global climate change will bring us more severe rainstorms and floods. Anyhow we should realize that dikes and dam reservoirs cannot prevent all of flood disasters. From this viewpoint, facility-based and non-facility-based countermeasures against flood disasters which are taken in floodplain are getting more important. Therefore in this study, an algorithm to search the optimal solution is proposed for the design problem of countermeasures taken in a floodplain against inundation disasters. The design problem is formulated as to find the land augment pattern which maximizes the evacuation success rate under the constraint of total land level augmentation volume. Two-layered random search method is developed to obtain the optimal solution for the problem avoiding impractical computational burden. The method comprises of two levels of searching: one is approximate solution search process based on simple estimation of inundation levels, and the other is strict optimization stage based on the actual simulation of flood inundation. The nested coupling of those two levels of searching has considerably deduced the computational burden caused by the inundation simulation and has enabled us to get practical solution for the design problem. Using the optimization method proposed in this study, an attempt to estimate quantitatively the relation between facility-based countermeasures and so-called soft-ones for flood disaster mitigation is also made. Key words: flood disaster; mitigation; inundation risk; optimal design; evacuation

Corresponding address:
Prof. Tomoharu Hori Dept. of Global Environmental Studies & Urban and Environmental Engineering Kyoto University Sakyo-ku, Yoshida Honmachi Kyoto 606-8501 Japan Tel: +81-75-753-5095 Fax: +81-75-753-4907 Email: tomo@mbox.kudpc.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Modeling Flood Loss and Risk Perception: Case of Nari Typhoon 2001 in Taipei
Daigee Shaw1, Hsing-Hsiang Huang2, Ming-Chou Ho2
1. Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica;

2. Socio-Economic System Division, Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan Abstract: Economic loss and psychological factors of decision makers are becoming important components of integrated natural disaster risk management, such as risk communication and benefit cost analyses of alternative policies. However, there have been not many attempts to put these two components together. To explore the relationship between these two components and their policy implications, we examined the determinants of economic loss and risk perception, as well as their roles on policy choice (i.e., purchasing insurance) by a simultaneous regression model. Using questionnaire-based survey data collected in the flooded Taipei area brought by heavy rainfall of 700~1000 mm/24 hours during Nari Typhoon in 2001, three equations were built. First, the amount of households economic loss could be determined by pre-disaster insurance behavior and flood experiences. Second, risk perception, composed of three factors of threat, fear, and controllability, could be predicted by different personal socio-economic characteristics. That is, only the factor of threat was affected by economic loss, but the factors of fear and control, not associated with economic loss, were affected by other personal characteristics, such as sex, age, total number of children, trust in government, or preferred political party. Third, after the flood, whether the victims have joined the flood insurance program was examined by the three factors of risk perception. The results showed the factors of threat and controllability of flood played important roles on purchasing insurance voluntarily. These findings of the interaction of economic loss and risk perception and their roles on decision are suggestive as signals of risk communication and mitigation planning to policy makers. Key words: flood; loss function; risk perception; Nari Typhoon 2001

Corresponding address:
Dr. Hsing-Hsiang Huang Socio-Economic Division Science and Technology Center For Disaster Reduction 3F., NO. 106, Sec. 2 HoPing E. Rd. Taipei 106 Taiwan, China Tel: +886-2-66300636 Fax: +886-2-66300600 Email: hhuang@ncdr.nat.gov.tw

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

NIED Project I: Integrated Flood Risk Management and Participatory Flood Risk Communication Support System Development
Teruko Sato, Yukiko Takeuchi, Teruki Fukuzono, Saburo Ikeda, Shinya Shimokawa
Research Project on Social Systems Resilient against Natural Disasters,National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0006, Japan

Abstract: The total flooding area in Japan has drastically decreased in the past 100 years due to steadily increasing public investment mostly in structural measures such as in extending dikes and dams. However, high and long dikes along rivers have increased the peak flood discharge, and the development of flood-prone areas has increased the potential of catastrophic loss. Namely, it has brought a low probability but high consequence (LPHC) flood risk in case of dyke breaks, in particular, in urban areas where most of the urban agglomeration has been concentrated since 1970s in Japan. Japan's National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has launched a five-year research project (2001-2005) with the aim of making modern societies resilient not only to a traditional flood but also to a possible LPDC flooding. The new flood risk management approach that NIED is promoting is integrated flood risk management. This includes 1) shifting the management strategy from disaster prevention with zero risk to disaster reduction with acceptable risk, 2) integrating both structure and non-structure measures (hard and soft measures), and 3) creating a societal platform to call for wide range of stakeholders (governments, communities, and residents) in planning and designing stronger risk management plan against LPHC disasters using both short- and long-term strategies. Our research group has been developing such a participatory platform of disaster risk communication called the Participatory Flood Risk Communication Support System, or Pafrics, that can facilitate community-based participation in planning and designing processes for better integrated flood risk management. The Pafrics has been developed by taking a number of research outcomes concerning local peoples flood risk perception and disaster prevention activities through recent questionnaire surveys conducted by NIED. Keywords: integrated flood risk management, risk communication support platform, community-based approach, urban flood disasters.

Corresponding address:
Ms. Teruko Sato National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7637 Fax: +81-29-863-7810 Email: sato.sun@bosai.go.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Scientific and Policy Innovation in the Integrated Flood Risk Management


Liu Shukun
Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research of China / Beijing Normal University

Abstract: Flood disaster includes the loss of life and treasures and the destroy of ecologic environment caused by inundation of river, storm tide, tsunami, rainstorm, flash flood and mud flow, i.e. all kinds of disasters in which water is the destroy power. Because of uncertainty of the flood happening, the risk of flood hazard exists at any moment for human society. Integrated flood risk management is one of the efficient means to alleviate the effect of flood disasters on our society. In the recently finished Flood Control Plan of China, the integrated flood risk management has become a keystone and obtained great development. 1. Emphasizing the strategy of flood prevention should be shifted to flood management from flood control In the past, flood-prevention strategy was to construct large-scale flood-prevention projects, such as dikes, dams and flood detention areas, etc, to control flood discharge according to flood standard of keystone protected area. With the development of protected areas, the scale of flood control works become larger and larger, the standard of flood control are higher and higher. As a result, the investment of these works becomes larger and larger too, that has become a great burden to states finance. At the same time, the large-scale flood control works has lead to much effect on the water circulation in river basin, such as the drop of groundwater level, flow termination, deterioration of valleys ecological environment and some other big problems, i.e. node-like, short circuit and insulation of water circulation in river basin and isolation of ecosystem. So, excessively controlling the flood is not a satisfactory strategy of flood prevention. The management of control flood includes scientific and engineering approaches to command the flood itself, as well as the control of society development by public policies to obtain that the human society is in harmony with flood and to realize long-term coexistence between human being and the flood. 2. Emphasizing the application of integrative risk management theory of flood disaster. The key of flood risk management is evaluation of the flood risk. In the Flood-prevention Plan of China, flood risk maps are depicted for the 8 main basins of China respectively, which take the expected flood damage that may occur on unit area in each basin as index of risk evaluation. Based on the index, areas are classified into 3 categories of flood risk, namely high, moderate and low. High flood risk area: the expected flood damage is larger than 80 000 yuan per year per km2, total area is 91 500 km2 with 0.18 billion of population and 1 600 billion yuan of GDP. Moderate flood risk area: the expected flood damage is between 20 000 to 80 000 yuan per year per km2, total area is 189 000 km2 with 0.131 billion of population and 1 170 billion yuan of GDP. Low flood risk area: the expected flood damage is less than 20 000 yuan per year per km2, total area is 139 000 km2 with 94 million of population and 1 100 billion yuan of GDP. Based on above, we can get that area with high flood risk is small, but the population and GDP are relatively large. Management should conform to the degree of flood risk. One way is to increase the standard of flood-prevention system to reduce the risk, and the other way is to establish polices to keep the population and assets from concentration into the high flood risk areas, and form a reasonable social and economic development mode. 3. Zoning management according to the Flood Control Law of the Peoples Republic of China The article 29 of the Flood Control Law of the Peoples Republic of China, which put in force on January 1, 1998, stipulates: A flood control area means an area where floodwater is likely to inundate, which is classified as a flooded area, a flood storage and detention area or a flood control protected area. According to the Flood Control Law of the Peoples Republic of China, the Flood-prevention Plan of China firstly
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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

compartmentalizes the flood control areas of our country. The total flood control area of the middle and down stream of the Chinese great rivers, is 0.769 million km2, in which the area protected by flood control works is 0.618 million km2, the flooded area as flood way is 71.5 thousand km2, the flood detention area as temporary flood storage is 32 thousand km2, as well as the programming preserved area for extreme and exceeding standard flood is 47.5 thousand km2. Based on above zoning results, different management goals and policies are established in different areas, and corresponding flood control and mitigation measures are planed respectively. In order to strengthen the integrated flood risk management, the Ministry of Water Recourse has planed to appropriate 0.2 billion yuan to formulate the flood hazard maps of major flood protected areas in our country. With the forming of newly flood-prevention strategy and scientific and technological means, our countrys ability to manage the flood disaster and its risk will be enhanced greatly.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Shukun Liu China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research 20 Chegongzhuang Road 100044, Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email: lsk@vip.sina.com

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Parallel Session 3
Management of Major Accident Risks: Innovations in Science and Policy

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Integrating the Control of Major Accidents Risk in the Overall Policy for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Aniello Amendola
International Institute for Applied System Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract: Comprehensive and sound paradigms have been proposed and implemented (at least for a number of activities) by regulation (e.g. in the EU) for the control of major accident hazards: these include management systems to reduce hazards at the source and to control development of accidents, principles of liability and damage compensation, systems of communication with the public, emergency preparedness and response, and, land use planning versus accident risks. However, their implementation is still lacking, moreover not all activities are covered by the same rules. Further, despite evidence of interactions of natural events with hazardous activities, too large separation does still exist between science and institutions for managing the different risks. Indeed, even if the hazards are of different origin, the risk is always human-induced; therefore, whereas technologies are hazard specific, the risk management principles are similar and should be integrated in the overall policy for disaster prevention and mitigation. In particular a land use planning policy should consider at the same time all kind of hazards to avoid that mitigation decision towards one particular hazard could provoke negative effects for other hazards. Restrictions in land use, as well as emergency preparedness, because of conflicting objectives and values, cannot be effective without effective public participation. Key words: integrated disaster risk management; control of major accident hazards; land use planning; risk communication; public participation

Corresponding address:
Dr. Aniello Amendola Risk, Modeling and Society IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria Tel: +43-2236-807-0 Fax: +43-2236-807-466 Email: amendola@iiasa.ac.at

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Current Situation and Prevention Measures in Mining, China


Cheng Wang, Baosheng Sun, Jian Zhang, Mingxing Gao
College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China.

Abstract: The serious accidents of Chinese mining, which had caused big casualties as well as great economical loss, happened frequently in past decades. By analyzing problems of Chinese mining, author has discovered three main problems, which are production environment, techniques and equipments, production management of mining, it is a urgent mission for researcher to utilize advanced scientific technology and establish effective management policy of mining in order to strengthen the safe production in Chinese mining. Key words: mining safety; countermeasures of prevention and cure; sustainable development

Corresponding address:
Mr. Cheng Wang College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University 14 Shengli Road,Urumqi, 830046 Urumqi China Tel: +86 09918350657 Email: wangcheng9_1999@163.com

Sponsored by National Nature Science, Foundation of China (No.49862002) and Xinjiang program (No.XJEDU2004107) 44

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Assessment and Management of Major Accident Risks Connected with Industrialized Areas: The Case of Ravenna (Italy)
Gigliola Spadoni1, D. Egidi2
1. Department of Chemical, Mining and Environmental Engineering, Bologna University, Viale Risorgimento 2, 40136 Bologna, Italy; 2. Civil Protection of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Viale Silvani 6, 40132 Bologna, Italy.

Abstract: Land use planning, risk control and emergency planning are matters of deep exa-mination and strong decisions by public authorities who have to manage problems posed by the concentration of many industrial activities where dangerous substances are processed, especially if these establishments are located close to residential areas. The quantitative area risk assessment (QARA) is an indispensable knowledge tool to address right choices of prevention and protection. In the Ravenna area of Italy a large complex of chemical and petrochemical plants is located near a densely populated town and risks connected with transport, storage and processing of large amount of dangerous substances were evaluated and decisions assumed by administrations in order to guarantee a high degree of safety to citizens. That is the final aim of a pioneer Project, the ARIPAR project, whose first phase was concluded in 1992. The control of the area has continued during the years. The aim of this paper is to summarise some results of the updating of the quantitative risk analysis of the Ravenna area, to put in evidence the effects of both the industrial dynamics and of structural interventions suggested by the studies and realized by companies and authorities, through modifications of plant operations and territorial infrastructures. After a short description of the territory and of its vulnerability (meteorological data, population distibution, centres of aggregated population hospital, schools, commercial centres,....), the attention is paied to: 1. data collection of industrial area (transportation included); 2. risk analysis of each risk source (plants and transport); 3. comparative analysis of risk measures - individual and societal risk obtained from the large amount of calculations performed. In particular, the risk measures are discussed by putting in evidence modifications caused by new road layout, decommissioning of LPG sphere storage and building of new buried storage, tha aim being to show how and in which way these technological changes can mitigate major accident risks. Key words: industrial risk; transport of dangerous substances; quantitative area risk analysis; risk mitigating interventions

Corresponding address:
Prof. Gigliola Spadoni Universita Di Bologna, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria, e delle Tecnologie Ambientali Viale Risorgimento, 2, I-40136 Bologna, Italy Tel: +39-051-2093135 Fax: +39-051-581200 Email: gigliola.spadoni@unibo.it

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Current Practices for Risk Zoning around Nuclear Power Plants in Comparison to other Industry Sectors
Christian Kirchsteiger
European Commission, DG JRC, Institute for Energy, Petten, The Netherlands

Abstract: This paper analyses the background and current status of the information basis leading to the definition of risk and emergency zones around Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in different countries in Europe and beyond. Although dependable plant-specific Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Level 2 and/or Level 3 could in principle provide sufficiently detailed input to define the geographical dimension of a NPP's risk and emergency zones, the analysis of the status in some European and other countries shows that other, "deterministic" approaches using a Reference Accident are actually used in practice. Regarding use of Level 2 PSA for emergency planning, the approach so far has been to use the Level 2 PSA information retrospectively to provide the justification for the choice of Reference Accident(s) used to define the emergency plans and Emergency Planning Zones (EPZs). Where a Reference Accident approach is used based on the Level 2 PSA information, consideration needs to be given to the number of Reference Accidents that need to be defined in order to characterise the severe accident progression and release characteristics of the plant. There are significant differences in the EPZs that are defined in different countries. These range from about 1 km to 30 km in different countries. Reasons for these differences are discussed. Based on currently used decision criteria in defining NPP emergency zones in some European countries, issues such as definition of EPZ, information to the public in the event of radiological emergency and emergency protection measures are discussed and a comparison between different countries is made. Current discussions, e.g. within the Generation-IV initiative, are summarised on how emergency planning and the EPZs would be defined for future NPPs where the risk from the plant would be very much lower than for current plants. There is a striking contrast in the extent of using probabilistic information to define emergency zones between the nuclear and other high risk industry sectors, such as the chemical process industry, and the reasons for these differences are not entirely clear, but seem to be more related to risk perception than actual risk potential. Therefore, there is a strong need to be able to communicate risk information to the public both before and following an accident. In addition, there is a need to educate the public on that they can understand risk information in a comparative sense. Finally, based on the consensus discussions at a recent JRC/OECD International Seminar on Risk & Emergency Zoning around NPPs, a set of recommendations is given in the areas of a more comprehensive use of the available risk information for risk zoning purposes, risk communication, and comparative (energy) risk assessment. Key words: PSA; risk zoning; energy risk assessment; comparative risk assessment

Corresponding address:
Dr. Christian Kirchsteiger European Commission, DG-JRC Institute for Energy Westerduinweg 3 NL-1755 LE Petten The Netherlands Tel: +31-224-56-5118 Fax: +31-224-56-5641 Email: christian.kirchsteiger@jrc.nl

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Natech Disasters: A Review of Practices, Lessons Learned and Future Research Needs
Ana Maria Cruz
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan

Abstract: There is heightened awareness of the danger posed by potential conjoint natural and technological (natech) disasters. The inclusion of a session on natechs at the recent World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, January 2005) serves as an example. However, there is still not sufficient reflection of this in laws of individual countries. For example, country laws generally refer to natech hazards only indirectly as external threats, and provisions to prevent or respond to simultaneous disasters from single or multiple sources concurrent with the natural disaster are usually not present. In this paper natech risk management practices in the United States, the state of California, Turkey, Japan and several European countries, as well as at the European Community level are discussed. A summary of general findings from case studies and research on natechs in these countries are presented. The paper highlights some natech risk reduction initiatives undertaken by individual countries, as well as gaps in current regulatory requirements. The paper closes with recommendations on future research needs.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Ana Maria Cruz Division of Integrated Management for Disaster Risk Disaster Prevention Research Institute Uji International House, D-210 Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji City Kyoto 611-0011 Japan tel: +81-774-38fax: +81-774-38-4044 Email: anamaria@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Parallel Session 4
Drought and Other Weather-related Disasters: Innovations in Science and Policy

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

China Dust Storms: A Remote Sensing Evaluation of the Hazard and its Societal Impact
Dalia Bach, Art Lerner-Lam
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA

Abstract: In April of 2001, a massive dust storm deposited roughly 50 teragrams of yellow dust throughout the Asian mainland, which delayed transportation and affected peoples health and livelihoods. The dust storm originated from desert regions in Mongolia and spread throughout western and northern China, disturbing croplands as well as major metropolitan areas such as Beijing. While the April 2001 event was one of the largest dust storms on record, in the past forty years over 60 moderate to heavy dust storms have been recorded in northern China. Dust storms of this nature are prevalent throughout China where over 13% of the country is composed of gobi (gravel) and sand deserts. These dust storms are most frequent in spring months (~58% of storms occurring in April), when unstable air from the Mongolian cyclone and fast moving cold fronts across China generate high wind velocities. The winds stir up dust particles in the gobi and Talimakan deserts and can transport large volumes of dust over 6 km in altitude and as far eastward as central North America. Among the sources that contribute to the magnitude and intensity of these severe events, climate impacts and land use changes are the most influential. Remote sensing satellite imagery provides the fundamental tools for analyzing the nature and degree of land-cover dynamics in order to understand the multi-faceted relationship to the spatial and temporal patterns of these dust storms. This study uses data from NOAAs Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which provides resolution at 8 km of surface conditions and land use change from 1981 to 2001. The data is analyzed to obtain a time series of land surface temperatures and vegetation density based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the arid regions from Beijing extending westward into the Alashan region. In addition to AVHRR images, high resolution images such as Landsat and MODIS help to define surface characteristics at particularly vulnerable locations. The joint analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of this region provides important insight into the correlation between dust storms and land use changes. Desert topography can also influence storm direction and provide information critical for hydraulic and aerosol modeling. This study uses Digital Elevation Models derived from X-SAR/SRTM data (90m resolution) to create detailed topographic maps in the Alashan region. These DEMs will be used to constrain dust transport models as well as contribute to a better understanding of desert morphology. Health impacts from severe dust storms can be significant. Analysis of remote sensing data coupled with demographic and agricultural data will contribute to a preventative risk model for dust transport. The conclusions from this study will serve as an important mechanism to calculate the relative vulnerability of communities to extreme dust storms in Beijing and western Alashan regions. Key words: remote sensing; dust storms; integrated risk assessment

Corresponding address:
Ms Dalia Bach Center for Hazards and Risk Research, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory 201D Seismology, Columbia University 61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000 Palisades, NY 10964-8000 USA Tel: +1-845-365-8460 Fax: +1-845-365-8150 Email: dbach@ldeo.columbia.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Some of Our Comprehension and Understanding in Risk Analysis for Development and Management Related Water Resources, Water Disaster and Water environment
Yuansheng Zhu, Longcang Shu
Hohai Univ. 210098, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract: The combination of Chinas water resources scarcity, frequent occurrences of water-related natural disasters and deterioration of water environment leads to the significant increase of complexity and uncertainty. A direct result of this elevated level of complexity and uncertainty is that Hydrological Risk has increasingly become a standard component in water resources development and management. One understanding from our risk analysis and management experiences is: the essence of Model-Based Risk Analysis is to provide an alternative conceptual framework from the traditional approach which aims to a pre-determined design standard and maximum Benefit-Cost ratio. This new framework predicts quantitatively by ways of simulated risk models likely incidents probability of their happening, as well as their likely impact. Descriptive parameters may include water volume, quality, impact on environment and bio-hazard, with the goal of supplying scientific basis for managing Hydrological Risks. By assessing the Cost - Return - Risk of each proposal, this new framework aims to achieve effective and efficient allocation of limited resources resulting from an optimal balance between the level of overall return and the level of safety and reliability of water resources development as well as ecological development. Key words: development and management related water; hydrological risk; approach of model-based risk analysis

Corresponding address:
Prof. Yuansheng Zhu University of Hohai Xikang rd., 210098 Nanjing China Tel: 025-83722181 Email: zhuyuansheng@hotmail.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Flood/Waterlogging Disaster in Middle and Lower Reaches of Liao River of Northeast China
Hui Zhang1, Jiquan Zhang1, Junshan Han2
1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; 2. Songliao Water Resources Commission, MWR, Changchun 130021, China

Abstract: The middle and lower reaches of Liao River of Northeast China is one of the most important bases of industry, agriculture and energy, the major grain-growing region, transportation hinge, and its also the region where flood/waterlogging disasters happen frequently. This study presents a methodology for risk assessment and regionalization of flood/waterlogging in the middle and lower reaches of Liao River of Northeast China based on Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The main objectives of this study are (1) to design the conceptual framework for flood/waterlogging disaster risk from the viewpoint of natural disaster risk theory and flood/waterlogging formation mechanism; (2) to choose relative factors of flood/waterlogging disaster risk based on the conceptual framework, and to determine weight values of every factors using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to compare the contributes of every factors to the risk; (3) to develop the Flood/Waterlogging Disaster Risk Index (FDRI), a composite index developed to compare and assess the risk of flood/waterlogging disaster risk based upon the standard mathematical formula of natural disaster risk; (4) to assess and rank risk of flood/waterlogging based on FDRI using GIS. This study is specifically intended to support local and national government agencies as they (1) make resource allocation decisions; (2) make high-level planning decisions; and (3) raise public awareness of flood/waterlogging risk, its causes, and ways to manage it. Key words: flood/waterlogging disaster; risk assessment; risk regionalization; AHP; GIS; lower reaches of Liao River of Northeast China

Corresponding address:
Ms. Hui Zhang College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, No. 5268 Renmin Street, 130024 Changchun China Tel: 13804466916 Email: zhangh005@nenu.edu.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Case Study of Crisis Management of 1998 Quebec Ice Storm


Patrick Lagadec
Ecole Polytechnique, Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France

Abstract: During the week of January 5 to 8 1998, Quebec experienced the most serious episode of ice-forming rain in all its history. The consequences were not only electrical power shortages, due to problems on the distribution networks, but also a power transmission network needing to be rebuilt on a very large scale; the beginning of a breakdown of whole sections of vital networks in Montreal and its surrounding region (electricity, transport, drinking water, petrol, radio-telephony, etc.); a massive scare for the decision-makers who could see the moment coming when Montreal would be paralysed the evacuation of the city, a hypothesis that had been considered totally unrealistic by some, began to be envisaged. This episode is a remarkable example of modern systemic risks and complexity crises: our increasingly urbanised, technical and complex modern societies are built around continually interacting networks. An energy failure can very quickly reveal all the intrinsic vulnerability of such a system. The 1998 was extremely well managed and need to be largely known since successes are very rare in the domain.The key lessons to be drawn, for the future will be presented

Corresponding address:
Dr. Patrick Lagadec Director of Research Laboratoire d'conomtrie de l'cole Polytechnique UMR 7657 1 rue Descartes 75005 Paris France Tel: +331-55558242 / -47023136 E-mail : plagadec@club-internet.fr

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Characterizing Infrastructure Failure Interactions for Systemic Risk Analysis and Integrated Management of Disasters
Tim McDaniels1, Stephanie Chang2, Joey Mikawoz3, Holly Longstaff4
1. Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, The University of British Columbia, British Columbia, Canada; 2. School of Community & Regional Planning, The University of British Columbia, British Columbia, Canada; 3. Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of British Columbia, British Columbia, Canada; 4. The W. Maurice Young Centre for Applied Ethics, The University of British Columbia British Columbia, Canada

Abstract: This paper develops a conceptual and analytical framework with empirical applications to characterize infrastructure failure interdependencies (IFI). It uses major electrical power outages as the context for understanding how extreme events (within or external to the power system) lead to failures of other infrastructure systems, given a major electrical power outage. In this manner, the paper develops a framework for ex post systemic risk analysis, given that an extreme event has occurred that can trigger other systemic failures. The paper takes an empirical approach by examining the patterns of IFI that occurred in two events: the August 2003 Northeastern North American blackout, and the 1998 Quebec ice storm. The paper begins with discussion of concepts for characterizing IFI conditional on an extreme event and draws parallels to other models. Then the categories of the framework to characterize IFI and their consequences are discussed. Then we document and compare the IFI from the two major outages. We discuss patterns of these interactions, and consider potential priorities for mitigation measures. Finally we provide discussion and conclusions regarding future extensions of this work and its potential applications Key words: infrastructure failure interdependencies; electrical power outages; extreme events; systemic failures

Corresponding address:
Prof. Dr. Tim McDaniels Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability University of British Columbia 433-6333 Memorial Road Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 Canada Tel: +1-604-822-9288 Fax: +1-604-822-3787 Email: timmcd@interchange.ubc.ca

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Parallel Session 5
Earthquakes: Socio-Economic Issues

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Bam Reconstruction Process and Achievement


Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany
International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)

Corresponding address:
Prof. Mohsen GHAFORY-ASHTIANY International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) 26, Arghavan St., North Dibajie Farmanieh Tehran, 19537-14476 Iran Tel: +98-21-229-4932 / -229-5115 Fax: +98-21-229-9479 Email: ashtiany@iiees.ac.ir

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Urbanization and Earthquake Disaster Reduction


YE Yaoxian
China Architecture Design and Research Group (CADRG), 19 Che Gong Zhuang Street, Beijing 100044, P. R. of China

Abstract: We did our utmost to mitigate natural disasters in the last decade through IDNDRs activities. However, both of the number of disasters and economic losses are still increasing. Annual economic losses caused by natural disasters averaged US$ 75.5 billion in the 1960s, US$ 138.4 billion in the 1970s, US$ 213.9 billion in the 1980s and US$ 659.9 billion in the 1990s. The big part of these losses is concentrated in the urban areas of developed world. Annual life losses due to earthquakes averaged 17,773 persons from 1901 to 2005. Most of the killed are in urban areas of developing world, especially in recent decades. For example, the number of death and homeless due to 403 earthquakes occurred in the APEC regions in the past century for developing economies were 2.2 and 2.6 times higher then that for developed economies respectively. However, the damage in US dollars for developed economies was 27.3 times higher then that for developing economies.

The reasons for increasing losses caused by earthquakes can be listed as follows: Population density increasing and rural urban migration due to urbanization Increase of values in disaster-prone regions due to urbanization and development Vulnerability of modern cities and society due to conglomeration of dense population, aging infrastructure and building, and development in unsafe areas. The drive for economic growth and social improvement are generating new disaster risks. Imperfect knowledge and risk awareness. Disaster can happen even in the case of earthquakes with moderate magnitude. Disaster reduction is relying on single discipline to provide a solution independently. Lack of monitoring and warning system, as well as disaster information collection, analysis and dissemination systems. Earthquake risk management was not implemented as a comprehensive, continuous and daily activity, but as a periodic reaction to individual disaster circumstances. The industry revolution brings along acceleration of migration and rapid urbanization. The in-migration has accelerated in the past 40 years, particularly in the developing regions, and the share of the global population living in urban areas has increased from one third in 1960 to 47% in 1999. The worlds urban population is now growing by 60 million persons per year, about three times the increase in the rural population. In 2003, developing countries had over 2 billion urban dwellers compared with 900 million in industrialized countries. Over the next 30 years, virtually all population growth will be in the urban areas of developing countries. The urban population in the developing world will double to nearly 4 billion by 2030, according to UN projections. Over the same period, the urban population of developed countries is projected to increase from 900 million to 1 billion. As populations grow, the number of large cities will increase substantially. By 2015 the world will have 482 cities with one million or more residents. Of these, 326 - about two-thirds - will be in developing countries. In 2003 there were 20 mega-cities with over 10 million inhabitants. By 2015, 22 cities will be this large, all but five of them in the developing world. By 2015, about 358 million people will live in these 22 mega-cities, 75 million more than today. China has the same situation. The urban population was 502 million in 2002 and will be increased to 840 million in 2020. The annual migrants will be 18.8 million in the next 15 years.
Urbanization has both positive and negative impact on earthquake disaster risk. The impact depends in large part on the kind of development choices they have made. As countries become more prosperous, for
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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

example, they are often better able to afford the investments needed to build buildings and infrastructures more likely to withstand earthquakes. At the same time, the rush for growth can trigger haphazard urban development that increases risks of large scale fatalities during an earthquake. Now, the global community is facing a critical challenge: how to better anticipate, manage and reduce disaster risk by integrating the potential earthquake threat into its planning, policies, research, education, institution, law and daily activities etc. Key words: urbanization, earthquake, disaster reduction, losses, Corresponding address: Prof. Ye Yaoxian China Architecture Design and Research Group 19 Che Gong Zhuang Street, Beijing 100044 China Tel: + 86-10-68302017, + 86-10-88362419 Fax: + 86-10-68348832 E-mail: yeyx@cadg.cn or yeyaoxian@sina.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Earthquake Protection of Historical Buildings by Reversible Mixed Technologies: The Prohitech Project
Zoran V. Milutinovic1, Frederico M. Mazzolani2
1. Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS-Skopje), University "Ss. Cyril and Methodius", Skopje 1000, Republic of Macedonia; 2. Department of Structural Analysis and Design, Engineering Faculty, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples, 80125, Italy.

Abstract: European Commission 6th Framework Programme research project PROHITECH [ongoing] is framed within the INCO thematic areas INCO-B.2, INCO-2002-B2.1 and INCO-2002-B2.2., devoted to Protection and Conservation of Cultural Heritage in the Mediterranean area. The project deals with the very important subject of the seismic protection of historical and monumental buildings, i.e. structures dating back from the ancient age up to the mid of the 20th century. Its main objective is to develop sustainable methodologies for the use of reversible mixed technologies in the seismic protection of existing constructions, with particular emphasis to buildings of historical and artistic interest. Reversible mixed technologies exploit the peculiarities of innovative materials and special devices, allowing ease of removal if necessary. At the same time, the combined use of different materials and techniques yields an optimization of the global behavior under seismic actions. The endpoint of the research underway is a proposal of codification for the use of such technologies for seismic protection of existing constructions, which will meet the most up-to-dated codification issues at European level and will comply with layout, language and philosophy of structural Eurocodes. PROHITECH workplan is based on 12 scientific and 3 management workpackages aiming to produce 16 scientific workpackage and 4 mile stone deliverables: (1) Intervention strategies / Scientific overview/; (2) Selection of materials and technologies /Research/; (3) Experimental and numerical research /Research/; and (4) Formulation of codification rules /Technological development & innovation/. The paper and the related presentation will be focused on essentials of this large European project that in the period of 3 years (2004-2006) intends to yield a significant advancement of the state-of-the-art in the field of seismic protection of historical buildings. Key words: PROHITECH; Mediterranean; seismic protection and conservation; cultural heritage; reversible mixed technologies.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Zoran V. Milutinovic Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology University "Ss.Cyril and Methodius" 73, Salvador Aliende Str,.P.O. Box 101, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia Tel: +389-2-317-6155 Fax: +389-2-311-2163 Email: zoran@pluto.iziis.ukim.edu.mk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Study of Financial Loss and Adjustment Problems of Earthquake Insurance


Rushan Liu, Zifa Wang, Min Zhu
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, 150080, China

Abstract: This paper first briefly reviews the development of earthquake insurance policies within China and other countries. Based on analysis of earthquake hazard and structural vulnerability, earthquake loss estimation methodology is summarized. Emphasis is placed on the probabilistic density distribution function of earthquake loss adjustment of a single building under given insurance policy and the overall variance of estimated earthquake loss aggregated from various locations that has attracted keen interest from insurance industries. The correlation coefficient among multiple locations obtained in the United States is introduced to consider the effect of correlation effect. This result is utilized to interpret high degree of loss concentration for earthquake insurance. This paper provides scientific basis for calculating loss adjustment and premium rate calculation and calibration, and it also provides useful reference for application and expansion of earthquake insurance industry in China. Key words: earthquake insurance; financial loss; adjustment policy; adjustment distribution; correlation coefficient

Corresponding address:
Dr. Rushan Liu Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration 29 Xuefu Road, 150080 Harbin China Tel: 0451-8665-2366 Fax: 0451-8665-2500 Email: liurushan@sina.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Durable Development, from Slogan to Action


Mohammad Hassan Ahmadi
International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Risk Management Research Center, socio-cultural and economic department

Abstract: If expecting one year result, we should form a fast action group in public services.If expecting one decade result, we should follow the scientist's instructions. But if looking forward a century we should look after mass participation and vulgarization of knowledge toward cultural evolution, which means transformation of a faithless popular culture to be faithful in science innovations. Being faithful to knowledge would result the most and sustainable activities. But how can we figure out the orientation to this point? There are some simple and clear questions which would answer us very firmly and lead us to the point. For example; why in spite of the fact that more than 90 percent of rescue and relief operations in all earthquakes, from Kobe to Bam ,has been affected by local people and neighbors ,we concentrated more than 90 percent of our sources on public services training and equipments? Could we shift our efforts to increase local people abilities to defend themselves with self confidence? These questions would be elaborated in this paper. Key words: cultural evolution; knowledge vulgarization ; mass participation

Corresponding address:
Mr. Mohammad Hassan AHMADI International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) No. 26, Arghavan st., North Dibajie, Farmanieh, Tehran, 19537-14476 Islamic Republic of IRAN Tel: +0098-21-2831116-19 Fax: +0098-21-2299479 Email: m.ahmadi@iiees.ac.ir

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Earthquakes and Mental Health


Naghmeh Sadeghi
International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Risk Management Research Center, Socio-Cultural and Economic department, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: The approach to cope with the crisis and in general, risk management has a direct relationship with the level of development and the existence of the appropriate social, economical, cultural and political infrastructures. Mental health problem is one of the most important negative consequences by the absence of these appropriate infrastructures that have not been studied adequately. In most countries and specifically in Iran, health care and social policy making in natural disasters and earthquakes has been mainly focused on physical and financial outcomes, but increasing attention has also been given to the victims, psychological suffering and to psychosocial burden of the individual and the community of natural disaster and earthquake, recently. However the studies of the recent earthquakes in Iran and the other countries show that, those psychological impacts have to be considered more seriously. This paper, conducts a survey addressing the above issues. In general, the objectives of the mental health care interventions of the earthquake victims are to alleviate psychological distress, to prevent the development of late psychological impacts to decrease the number of patients who need serious therapy. The prevention method of mental disorders is studied in detail. In practice, this prevention can be implemented as popular education. Aside from academic education, study about none academic education for local people is proposed. The organized participation of the society which can be achieved by popular education is investigated. This paper describes how it can be possible. Key words: earthquake; mental health care; psychological impact

Corresponding address:
Prof. Naghmeh Sadeghi International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) No. 26, Arghavan St., North Dibajie, Farmanieh Tehran, 19537-14476 Islamic Republic of IRAN Tel: (0098-21) 2830830 Fax: (0098-21) 229 9479 Email: n.sadeghi@iiees.ac.ir

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Liquidity Constraint on Housing Choice after Disaster


Muneta Yokomatsu1, Kiyoshi Kobayashi2, Katsumi Wakigawa3
1. Department of Social Systems Engineering, Tottori University, Tottori, Japan 2. Graduate School of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan 3. Water Resources Division, Japan Institute of Construction Engineering, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract: Households who are deprived of their dwellings by natural disaster need a sizable amount of money to reconstruct a house. Hence, immediately after disaster, demands for funds concentrate and exceed provisions in capital market, resulting in an increase in an interest rate and an insufficient share of limited funds, which have impacts especially on households who are incapable of withdrawing enough money from the bank and/or disposing assets by sale to make money for reconstruction of a house. Since households can not delay acquisition of next dwelling, they have no choice but to dwell in a house of low quality, although they will be able to earn enough money in the future. In this paper, a three-period model with irreversibility on housing choice is proposed to analyze a function of disaster insurance which helps households procure funds for reconstructing a house of sufficient quality. The liquidity value of insurance is not due to risk-averse property of households but comes from immediate demands for new dwelling and irreversibility of investment in residential environment. The study further pays attention to an institutional framework where jurisdiction provides economic aids to damaged households, and points out its role which expands possibility of housing choice of households with liquidity constraint.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Muneta Yokomatsu Department of Social Systems Engineering Tottori University 4-101 Koyama-Minami Tottori, 680-8552 Japan Tel: +81-857-31-5311 Fax: +81-857-31-0882 Email: yoko@sse.tottori-u.ac.jp

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Parallel Session 6
Risk, Vulnerability and Governance

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Innovation in Science and Policy for Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Critical Infrastructures
Adrian V. Gheorghe
ETH Zrich Switzerland

Abstract: The data selection in the preceding sections supports the notion of a considerable sensitivity of the areas, population, and property exposed to flash floods from a dam break, to the water flow management conditions down the dam. While a comprehensive analysis can be conducted on the figures obtained. It appears that the most straightforward means to mitigate such a crisis is to timely secure a sufficient, positive channeling capability through a decent investment in water management works within the routine urban development planning. As to how size the chanelling this depends of the confidence placed on the projections about the maximal height of expected flood wave fronts. While simple models may give indications in this respect, a full commitment to a capital investment should be preceded by much more profound analytical work, and downscaled similitude experiments. To some sizeable extent, the same applies to financial engineering projects in the insurance/reinsurance business.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Adrian Gheorghe Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETHZ KOVERS Weinbergstrasse 11 CH-8001 Zurich Switzerland Tel: +41-446-325-938 Fax: +41-446-321-094 Email: gheorghe@mavt.ethz.ch

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natural Hazards: An Australian Perspective


John McAneney
Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia

Abstract: In Australia as well as many other developed countries, insurance plays an important role in helping communities recover from natural disasters. Risk Frontiers is a not-forprofit research organization funded by insurance players active in the Asia-Pacific market to help better understand the risk of natural hazards in the region. To this end, the Centre has developed a range of probabilistic CAT models that simulate event losses and exceedance probabilities for Hailstorm, Tropical Cyclone, Earthquake, Flood, Bushfire and Volcanic Eruption. The modelling philosophy underlying these products will be discussed and their application to insurance and reinsurance pricing demonstrated. Since the mid-1980s researchers at Macquarie University have also put significant efforts into developing databases of historical losses to the built environment due to natural perils. As an example, an analysis of Australian bushfire risk will be used to demonstrate the utility of such databases. It shows losses occur somewhere in Australia in 60% of years, a statistic has remained reasonably stable over the last century. This stability is similarly demonstrated by the 40% annual probability of a major event, here arbitrarily defined as the loss of more than 25 homes within a period of 7 days, a time window of some relevance to reinsurance contracts. This stability likely results from some form of climate control but this remains to be explored. The annual average number of dwellings lost to bushfire is estimated at 84. When this figure is combined with current asset values for home and contents, the Annual Average Damage is valued at $38.5 million. The 1 in 100 year event equates to a likely loss of AU$0.75 billion (2000 homes) and the 1 in 250 year event, AU$1.25 billion (3300 homes). These figures are approximately equal to the present value of the insured losses from Tropical Cyclone Tracy that destroyed Darwin in 1974 and the Newcastle earthquake that destroyed inner Newcastle in 1989. Key words: risk assessment; databases; catastrophe modeling; insurance; reinsurance.

Corresponding address:
Prof. John McAneney Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre Macquarie University 2109 Sydney, NSW Australia Tel: +61-2-985-09685 Fax: +61-2-985-09394 Email: jmcanene@els.mq.edu.au

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Vulnerability Assessment the Applicability and Usefulness of Indicators to Measure Vulnerability


Joern Birkmann1, Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer2, Reinhard, Mechler3
1. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany; 2. International Institute of Applied System Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 3. International Institute of Applied System Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract: There are a number of approaches to measuring vulnerability indicators in the field of natural disaster management. Approaches differ with regard to scale (micro and macro) and methodology (top-down vs. bottom-up). Some of these efforts have been developed in parallel without clear linkages. This paper discusses the different concepts and methodologies developed as well as the contexts in which are they are embedded. This comparison will encompass for example international index projects such as the Disaster Risk Index developed by UNDP, the hotspot approach by Columbia University and World Bank and work done to develop vulnerability indicators for the national and the sub-national by the University of Manizales for the Inter-American Development Bank. In contrast local approaches will be analyzed, such as the Local Disaster Risk Index developed by the GTZ, the self-assessment methods to estimate vulnerability at the local level and the methods to measure sub-national and local vulnerabilities by UNU-EHS. Furthermore, the IIASA approach to measure financial vulnerability at the national and state level will be presented and discussed. A general issue discussed in the paper is the fact that most concepts and methodologies lack a clear understanding of the applicability in practice. Therefore special attention will be given to the issues of scale and practical applicability for matters of risk reduction. Challenges identified relate to the envisaged target-groups, functions and the process of using these indicators. Key words: vulnerability assessment; indicators; applicability of indicators

Corresponding address:
Dr. Joern Birkmann United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Goerresstrasse 15 D-53113 Bonn Germany Tel.: +49-228-422-855Fax: +49-228-422-855-99 Email: birkmann@ehs.unu.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Risk Perception and Structural Vulnerability in Istanbul Following the Marmara Earthquakes:Strategies for Reducing Vulnerability
Rebekah A. Green
Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, USA.

Abstract: Following the 1999 Marmara earthquakes and subsequent risk assessment studies, residents of Istanbul, Turkey have become acutely aware of their exposure to the risks associated with a future seismic event. Using Istanbul as a case study, this research considers the emergence of culturally derived perceptions of earthquake risk. It looks at ways in which perceptions of risk shape the strategies people use to reduce their risk, variation of these strategies across legal, semi-legal and illegal districts, and their affect upon the seismic vulnerability of structures. The research was carried out in four municipalities within the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality that represented a range of physical and social characteristics significant to seismic vulnerability. Fifty-three interviews were conducted with residents and engineers across these districts to assess how individuals determined their own vulnerability to seismic hazard and the strategies they employed to mitigate this risk. Visual screenings of residents buildings were also performed regarding structural vulnerability and compared with responses regarding perceptions of this vulnerability. Analysis found that vulnerability perceptions and mitigation strategies relied heavily upon kin and friendship networks. Residents and engineers participated in dyadic relationships as a way to reduce construction costs, avoid bureaucracy, ensure safe new construction, and find trusted seismic inspection. It was these relationships that residents considered most central to lowered or elevated levels of earthquake risk and, thus, their risk reduction strategies centered on managing relationships within the design, construction and inspection process. Yet, it is these attempts to manage relationships in the housing market that has contributed to the high level of structural vulnerability in Istanbul. Policies that help reduce seismic vulnerability will be most successful when they take into account these culturally derived perceptions of risk. Several innovative policies along these lines are suggested. Key words: risk perception; structural vulnerability; Istanbul, Turkey

Corresponding address:
Ms. Rebekah A. Green Center for Hazards and Risk Research Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Earth Institute Columbia University 61 Route 9W P.O. Box 1000 Palisades, NY 10964 USA Tel: +1-607-255-1613 Fax: +1-845-365-8150 Email: rag16@cornell.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Vulnerability Assessment Methodology for Flood Hazards in China Using Changsha as a Case Study
Yi Ge1, 2, Peijun Shi1, 2, Tao Ye1, 2, Jing Liu1, 2
1. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, BNU, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: China is exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, including earthquake, flood, drought, and so on. The occurrence of hazards is not a phenomenon of recent time; however, understanding risk, vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, is a relatively recent trend and is currently increasing at a greater rate. With an ever increasing rate of urbanization in China, social vulnerability and risk from hazards are both affected. Hence, in order to prevent disasters from happening, more attention should be paid on this changeful literature.This paper focuses on social vulnerability assessment, especially on constructing a social vulnerability Index (SoVI). Based on Hoovering approach, a methodology with factor analysis and multiple regression analysis is proposed. By this novel methodology, a means of socioeconomic variables are reduced to a few independent factors, and a quantitative model of social vulnerability has been constructed. This model can assist decision-makers in better find out the real driving factors and dynamic changes of SoVI. There is a trial application to Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province, and the most important city in Dongting Lake and Xiangjiang River Basin where floods occur often. All data are from 1980-2003. With this methodology, a dynamic process of SoVI in Changsha region is predicted, and SoVI of five districts and four counties in Changsha are compared. Keyword: vulnerability; flood; Changsha; Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI); multiple regression analysis

Corresponding address:
Ms. Yi Ge Institute of Diaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University NO. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street 100875 Beijing China Tel: 010-58808179 Email: geyi@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Environmental Disaster Risk, Political Conflict and Governance: A Case Study from Nepal
Komal Raj Aryal
Disaster and Development Centre, Northumbria University, UK

Abstract: The concept of governance is as old as human civilisation. The UN defines governance as the process of decision-making and the process by which decisions are implemented (or not implemented). The term governance can be used in several contexts including corporate governance, international governance, national governance and local governance. Recently the term governance is being increasingly used in development literature, and value judgements are increasingly being made about the methods of implementation. Major cash donors and international financial institutions are increasingly rendering their aid and loans conditional, requiring the developing countries to implement reforms ensuring good governance. This research paper explores the meaning of governance and good governance in relation to environmental disaster risk in the disaster prone underdeveloped world that is facing additional political disaster since last two decades. With special reference of Nepalese case study, this paper seeks to analyse the relationship between governance and the progression of vulnerability to environmental disaster risk. It also analyses how the decisions made by one of the governance actors increases the vulnerability of marginalised peoples to risk from environmental disaster. Additionally this research paper makes proposals for activities to ameliorate and relieve vulnerability to environmental disaster risk.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Komal Aryal Disaster and Development Centre Northumbria University 6 North Street East Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST United Kingdom Tel: +44-191-227-4549 Fax: +44-191-227-4715 Email: komal.aryal@unn.ac.uk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Identifying Disaster Risk Management Sound Practices in Megacities


Neil R Britton
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Centre, National Research Institute for Earth Sciences and Disaster Prevention, 4th Floor, Human Renovation Museum, Hyogo 651-0073, Japan

Abstract: In our attempt to identify effective and replicable sound disaster risk management practices, we are coming to the view that there are areas specific to megacities which have not been taken into consideration when actors instigate vulnerability reduction measures. In addition, what works for megacities may be different from other urban areas; although little research is available that explores this particular area. This has prompted us to reflect on identifying prerequisites that recognize the basic needs of a megacity as megacity, and that can be integrated into local government/local community decision-making.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Neil R. Britton Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Centre, National Research Institute of Earth Sciences and Disaster Prevention_ 4th Floor, Human Renovation Museum, 1-5-2 Kaigan-dori, Wakihama, Chuo-ku Kobe 651 0073 Japan Tel: +81-78-262-5524 Fax: +81-78-262-5527 Email: neil@edm.bosai.go.jp

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Parallel Sessions for Young Scientists A


Building Disaster Coping Capacity in Society

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Capability of Urban Diagnostic Survey for Community Preparedness and Disaster Risk Management
Yoko Matsuda1, Norio Okada2
1. Department of Urban Management Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan; 2. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan

Abstract: To implement disaster risk communication, implicit knowledge from multiple stakeholders needs to be externalized and shared. Urban diagnostic survey is a technique used to formalize implicit knowledge (including ideas, opinions and attitudes) about social problems through surveys. It is most challenging and important to extract residents tacit ideas and opinions in community based risk management. The paper discusses the applicability of the urban diagnostic survey in two contexts: disclosure and feedback in a community, and risk perception/attitude/behavior analysis in a laboratory. The questionnaire survey consists of two parts. In the first part we asked a respondent to state how much he/she prepares for an earthquake on a scale from 1-10. This question is used to measure residents self-evaluation of preparedness. The other questions are provided to measure community preparedness on an individual basis and on a community through behavior and attitude. The source of questions are based on data from an NGO that list issues that often raised such as peoples anxiety in the past workshops. The topics of questions are categorized into these seven elements: housing safety, storage, shelter, special support (the elder, handicapped and infants), community linkage, fire and emergency contact. For efficient disclosure of the diagnosis to the residents and the NGOs, a community preparedness index (CPI) is introduced to demonstrate the communitys weaknesses in preparedness. Regional comparison, cognition gap in preparedness between residents and NGOs, and distribution of individual residents will be shown using CPI. The data of the diagnostic survey can also be applied to risk perception or attitude analysis contributing to disaster risk research. Multivariate analysis will be carried out to examine the relationship between attitude and behavior in the target community. Key words: urban diagnostic survey; risk communication; disaster preparedness; knowledge development; multivariate analysis

Corresponding address:
Ms. Yoko Matsuda Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan tel: +81-774-38-4038 fax: +81-774-31-4636 Email: matsuda@drs.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Status Quo of Case-Station and Field-Campus in Japan A Case of Niigata Chuetsu and Osaka University
Yoshihiro Seki, Tomohide Atsumi
Center for the Study of Communication-Design, Osaka University, Osaka, 565-0826, Japan;

Abstract: On October 23, 2004, at 5:56 p.m., a series of huge earthquakes hit Chuetsu area of Niigata Prefecture in Japan. Forty-eight people were killed and 4,794 people were injured, and 120,188 houses were completely or partially destroyed. A non-profit organization established after the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, Nippon Volunteer Network Activities in Disaster, decided to establish a joint local office, Support Center from Kobe, for long-term support toward victims with others. The students volunteers from Osaka University stayed in this office, and supported the victims. For example, at the office, the volunteers listened to the victims experiences in the earthquake and their ordinary lives. The office has provided direct experiences in disaster field and coordinated meeting among students/researchers and victims. In this sense, it became one of our Field-Campus. These student volunteers established a supporting group called From HUS at Osaka University. Some of their projects have been conducted in Chuetsu such as the delivery of ceramics. Our department has kept close relationship with the field-campus and provided students with opportunities to learn more about disaster relief. In this sense, it became our Sub Case-Station (Main Case Station is Kyoto University). The effectiveness of this method can be realized by examining reactions of victims, student volunteers, supporters and researchers. Sociologically the relation that will be made among them can be considered as one of the essential beliefs to the world (Giddens, A.). Further practical and theoretical implications will be shared. Key words: Case-Station/Field-Campus (CASIFICA) Method; long-term supporting activities; relationship between victims and volunteers

Corresponding address:
Mr. Yoshihiro SEKI Graduate School of Human Sciences, Osaka University 1-1,Senri Expo Park, Suita, 5650826 Osaka, Japan Tel: +81-6-6879-8064 Fax: +81-6-6879-8064 Email : seki@hus.osaka-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Opportunities, Barriers and Challenges for Implementing Electronic Data and Information Sharing Frameworks in Organizational Response to Natural Disasters
Andr Dantas, Erica Dalziell
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury, New Zealand.

Abstract: Response activities to natural disasters involve several organizations collecting, processing and sharing data and information that support resource allocations to minimize societal and economic damages. In order to act in a coordinate and efficient way, organizations require access to data and information characterizing the natural disasters intensity, location and related damages as well as the availability of human and physical resources. Data and information can be originated from multiple organizations that are ultimately shared and made available to coordinating authorities such as the Civil Defense. Furthermore, intra-organizational exchange of data and information can be observed as several layers of responsibilities and territorial jurisdiction are interdependent in performing all levels of activities such as asset planning, management, maintenance and operation. Through inter and intra organizational exchange and sharing of data and information decisions are made and implemented resulting in the mobilization of personnel and equipment accordingly to assessed needs and priorities. This paper presents a critical review and analysis of issues in implementing electronic data and information sharing frameworks in organizations involved in response activities during natural disasters. Based upon the examination of the scientific literature and recent natural disaster response reports as well as the latest technological advances, opportunities, barriers and challenges are identified and discussed. These are used in a New Zealand case study in which the implementation of an electronic data and information sharing framework in a roading authority organization is examined. This case study concentrates in presenting the process and the steps taken to conceive the electronic data and information framework and to involve the roading authority organizations as well as the preliminary results that have shown considerable performance gains in response activities during natural disasters. A major outcome of this research work is that perceived barriers can be reduced if technology is employed according to organizations needs rather than the other way around. This is possible by involving end-users during all development stages of the electronic data and information sharing frameworks.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Andr Dantas University of Canterbury Department of Civil Engineering Private Bag 48001 Christchurch Canterbury New Zealand Tel: +64-3-364-2238 Fax: +64-3-364-2758 Email: andre.dantas@canterbury.ac.nz

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Consensus-Based Reconstruction of Flood Risk Culture as a Mitigation Tool


Xiaomeng Shen, Bastien Affeltranger
Institute for Environment and Human security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Bonn, Germany

Abstract: This communication explores the potential of using culture as a tool to mitigate flood risks. In the course of history, civilizations and societies have forged their own concepts of human-nature relationship, for instance harmony or domination. In each case, these concepts have shaped risk culture and flood mitigation strategies. However, modernity and social and economic development have introduced more pragmatic considerations and consequently modified the man/woman-nature relationship. As a consequence, a gap has been growing between traditional, empirical risk culture, and scientific, engineering-based approaches. This gap has caused misunderstandings and communication problems between different stakeholders, such as local communities, experts and the State. This also affected the efficiency of flood mitigation. The challenge today therefore is to ease these tensions related to differing or clashing risk cultures. This communication advocates that this gap can be filled by a joint reconstruction of flood risk culture, based on a consensus between local communities and State administration. In order to achieve this, two steps are required. First, understanding of risk culture in different national contexts through exploring the risk perception and communication of different stakeholders and how their perception and communication are rooted in existing social values and worldviews. Second a cross national study on flood risk culture providing knowledge on correlations between culture and flood mitigation strategies, and serving as mirrors to reflect cultural blind spots and offer experience exchange, best practices and guidelines for adaptation to different cultural contexts. This communication presents the methodology and preliminary results of a comparative, cross-national Ph.D. study of flood risk perception, communication in different cultural settings in.R. China and Germany.

Corresponding address:
Ms. Xiaomeng Shen United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Goerresstrasse 15 D-53113 Bonn Germany Tel.: +49-228-422-855-12 Fax: +49-228-422-855-99 Email: shen@ehs.unu.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The QMethodology Approach to Characterization of the Attitudes and Behaviors toward Furniture Nailing for Earthquake Preparedness Case Study of Nagoya, Japan
Robert Bajek1, Norio Okada2
1. Research Center for Disaster Reduction Center Kyoto University, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan; 2. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto UniversityKyoto, 611-0011, Japan;

Abstract: The main goal of this research is to elicit the factors affecting the attitudes and behaviors related to furniture nailing activities. These attitudes are perceived as indicators of social resilience against expected earthquake to come. The other goal of this research is to improve the quality of risk communications on the basis of the results from this study, by giving feedbacks to risk communicators such as NGOs and local governments and helping them to design more accurate to laymen perceptions - and therefore more effective - risk communications in the future. The technique employed to study the factors underlying attitudes and behaviors related to fixing furnitures is QMethodology. Q-Methodology is a unique combination of qualitative (discourse analysis) and quantitative (factor analysis) approaches to study subjective views of phenomena in order to correlate discourses and find factors underlying subjective views, attitudes and behaviors. Recently the method was re-discovered and applied in many fields as participatory management and communication research (Webler, Tuler, 2001 Human Ecology Review 8, 2, p.29-40). Key words: Q-Methodology; NGO; participation; risk communication; risk perception; discourses; earthquake preparedness

Corresponding address:
Mr. Robert Bajek Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011 Japan Email: bajek@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Modeling Multi-Actor Decision Process in Conflict Situation: A case of Community Disaster Risk Mitigation in Ichinose Community, Tottori Prefecture, Japan
Suman Ranjan Sensarma, Norio Okada
Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, Japan

Abstract: This research intends to illustrate the conflict in decision making process in case of Ichinose community, Chizu, Tottori prefecture where landslides and floods are major problems. In order to resolve their problems different actors are identified in this decision-making process. The GMCR model (Graph Model for Conflict Resolution) is used to systematically describe the process of changes in the structure of this conflict. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to assess the robustness of stability results. It is proposed to create a participatory platform where each actor can convey their opinions. This could help to find an effective way to resolve the conflict. In case of negotiation, it is proposed to use an asymmetric equilibrium model, where one of the players has ability to force once decision to the other. This is known as Stackelberg Equilibrium where the player who holds the powerful position is called the leader and the other player who react the leader decision is called the follower. Key words: conflict; graph model; stackelberg equilibrium; participatory platform

Corresponding address:
Mr. Suman Ranjan Sensarma Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011 Japan Tel: +81-774-38-4038 Fax: +81-774-31-4636 Email: suman@drs.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Parallel Sessions for Young Scientists B


Disaster Risk Management

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Progress and Expectation on Flood Risk Analysis*


Dong Wang1, Shaoming Pan2, Jichun Wu1, Qingping Zhu3
1. Department of Earth Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; 2. The Key Lab of Ministry of Education of Coast & Island Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China; 3. The Yellow River Conservancy Committee of Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Abstract: In China, flood & waterlog disaster, water resources shortage and severe water pollution are three momentous water problems. Among the three, flood disaster occurs frequently and the loss of it is the maximal one. Flood risk analysis is the precondition and foundation to implement the non-engineering measures and to control flood scientifically and effectively. System risk is defined as the probability of the occurrence that the system external load is greater than its carrying capacity. And the use of risk analysis in flood during past 20 years is reviewed. The flood risk analysis methods has shown a progress from Direct Integral method, Monte Carlo method, Mean First Order Second Moment method and Second Order method, to Advanced First Order Second Moment method and JC method. The expectations are suggested as the remarks: (1) To make the connotation of risk analysis clearly and unified; (2) To carry out risk of risk analysis research; (3) To introduce the entropy theory into risk analysis; (4) To advance the basic theory and methods in risk analysis, such as the application of fuzzy information optimization technology, gray system and unascertained mathematics. Key words: flood; risk analysis; flood protection; progress; expectation

Corresponding address:
Dr. Dong Wang Department of Earth Sciences, Nanjing University, 210093 Nanjing China, Tel: +86-25-8359-5591 Fax: +86-25-8368-6016 Email: wangdongm1@hotmail.com

The study was granted financial support from the National Key Project for Basic Sciences (No. 2002CB412401) and Encouragement Project of Teaching and Researching for the Outstanding Young Teacher From Ministry of Education.
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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Optimizing Financial Strategies for Governments against the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters in Developing Countries
Stefan Hochrainer, Georg Pflug
Internatinal Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria

Abstract: This paper reports the improvements of the CatSim (Catastrophe Simulation) model approach which is designed to illustrate the tradeoffs and choices a developing country must make in managing the economic risks due to natural disasters. Ex ante financial instruments including Excess of loss (XL) insurance, Contingent credits, Reserve funds and Mitigation measures as well as ex post financial instruments like Diversion, Taxation, Aid and Borrowing are investigated and optimal financial strategies are calculated to reduce the probability of a financing gap the inability of governments to meet their obligations in providing relief to private victims and restoring public infrastructure. The problem of optimal disaster risk management for developing countries is viewed here as a two stage decision recourse problem under uncertainty: The scope of possible actions at stage two (ex-post) influences the decision at stage one (ex-ante). The results are visualized through a user interface and input variables can be changed in an interactively manner so that the model also can be used as a training tool and for workshops.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Stefan Hochrainer Risk, Modeling and Society IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria Tel: +43-2236-807-517 Fax: +43-2236-807-466 Email: hochrain@iiasa.ac.at

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

An Analysis of Economic Impacts from the 2004 Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake


Satoshi Tsuchiya1, Hirokazu Tatano2, and Norio Okada2
1. Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Yoshida-Hommachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan; 2. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, 611-0011, Japan

Abstract: The Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake, occurred on October 23, 2004, has caused heavy damage, mainly to local towns and villages in mountainous area, with a series of big aftershocks. The impact to regional economy is still lasting after six years: real damage of cropland was found after melting of snow, for instance. According to the early estimate of Niigata prefecture, total damage amounts to three trillion yen (JPY). Most of it is closely related with local industries and regional economy. It would be found that, mechanism of economic loss appearing, factor affecting, reaction of firms, and so on, are different from sector to sector. Therefore, posteriori surveys are necessary to have a true figure of the disaster, and to work out better disaster prevention planning. At the same time, we need a consistent framework of economic loss assessment to complement some problems of surveys. In order to figure out economic impacts more closely, we focus on indirect loss (economic loss) with mechanism of spatial and inter-industrial relationships of economic activities. We build a model of regional economy by spatial computable general equilibrium approach. Considering the model input as well -damage scenarios of production capital and transport infrastructure- from relevant survey results, we investigate measurement of economic impacts from the earthquake. Key words: the Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake; economic impacts; SCGE model

Corresponding address:
Mr. Satoshi Tsuchiya Division of Disaster Management for Safe and Secure Society Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011 Japan Tel: +81-774-38-4037 Fax: +81-774-38-4044 email: tsuchiya@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Developing Community Safety Maps for Urban Diagnosis


Wei Xu1, Norio Okada1, Michinori Hatayama2
1. Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan; 2. Disaster Management for Safe and Secure Society, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 611-0011, Japan

Abstract: This paper presents the concept and importance of the community safety map for urban diagnosis. As compared with similar kinds of maps commonly developed for community safety, basic properties of community safety map are listed, and the processes of developing them are also described. In the end, we discuss some examples of community safety maps which have been developed for Nagata Ward, Kobe City, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan with the help of the Spatial-temporal GIS software --DiMSIS. Key words: urban diagnosis; community safety map; DiMSIS

Corresponding address:
Mr. Wei Xu Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji Kyoto 611-0011 Japan tel: +81-774-38-4038 fax: +81-774-38-4636 Email: xu@drs.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Development of Earthquake Risk Management in China


Zhengru Tao1, Xiaxin Tao1,2
1. Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin, 150080, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China

Abstract: Earthquake risk management system, which is reviewed in this paper, has been establishing gradually in China in the past half century. It is a very complex process involved engineering mitigation measures and non-engineering countermeasures. The former, such as earthquake resistant design, played a great role in earthquake disaster reduction in decades. The latter, such as legislation against earthquake disaster, has been emphasized recently. Some disadvantages in this management system are pointed out as economy development, urbanization and reform from planning system to market system in the country, especially after China entered into the WTO. Some financial instruments, which are effective to promote the management system reformation, are discussed, and the necessity and possibility to adopt them in China is demonstrated emphatically. Earthquake insurance, as one of the instruments, is a formal social device for reducing risk by transferring the risks of several individual entities to an insurer who agrees to assume, to a specified extent, the losses suffered by all of this kind of policyholders. However, the stricken area from a devastating earthquake is very large and uncertain in practice, insurers cannot charge to cover all of the insured losses in some cases, some of them will be insolvent or on the edge of insolvency. Another instrument, catastrophe insurance derivatives, such as catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), initiated in the middle of 1990s in the United States is being suggested to earthquake risk management of China as the supplement of earthquake insurance besides reinsurance now. From the engineering point of view, a proposal is offered that the methods to determine the earthquake property & life insurance rates and the annual coupon rates of cat bonds should be combined with engineering seismic risk assessment. Finally, some more financial instruments developed in market system are also discussed briefly. Key words: earthquake risk management; financial instruments; earthquake insurance; cat bonds

Corresponding address:
Ms. Zhengru Tao Institute of Engineering Mechanics 29 xuefu road, 150080 Harbin China Tel: 86-451-88172230 Fax: 86-451-86664755 Email: taozhengru@yahoo.com.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Natural Disaster Risk Reduction in Coupled Social Ecological System: Challenges for Mainstreaming
Guoyi Han
Stockholm Environment Institute, 103 14 Stockholm, Sweden.

Abstract: Into the 21st century, human suffering and disruption of development from natural disasters remains to be one of the most pressing challenges of our time, despite the tremendous disaster risk reduction efforts worldwide. Natural hazards and disasters have always been a part of the human history. Over the last millennium, the biggest change in our relationship to natural disaster is that human has changed from a passive receptor to an active force shaping both hazard and risk. This change demands a fundamental shift in natural hazard management. Since the 1990s, we have increasingly seen a global push for a major conceptual shift of natural disaster management from hazard management to risk reduction, from relief, response to prevention and mitigation. In essence, this is a call for mainstreaming natural disaster management so that disaster risk reduction measures are to be integrated with development planning, natural resource management, poverty reduction, and livelihood strategies. Effective and innovative disaster risk reduction strategy and policies have to be situated in the context of coupled social ecological system in which we live. With a review of the patterns of natural disaster impacts at global level and the key management lessons on natural disaster in light of the recent advances in our understanding of vulnerability and resilience of the coupled social ecological system, this paper attempts to shed lights on some key questions on the issues of mainstreaming natural disaster management -- what does it mean, why it is important and needed now, and how it might be done? The paper argues that what is central for mainstreaming is the understanding of the dynamic nature of vulnerability and its underlying causes. On the key challenges, a mainstreaming matrix is outlined with two types of mainstreaming dilemmas highlighted those that are politically feasible but scientifically challenging vs. those that are scientifically sound and politically challenging. For all the complexities on the linkages between vulnerability and the various larger issues (development, environment, poverty, and livelihood), the paper concludes that mainstreaming natural disaster risk reduction ultimately requires a massive change of attitudes, values, and a culture shift, which put the challenge of mainstreaming natural disaster reduction right into the heart of the global transition towards a sustainable future. Key words: natural disaster; vulnerability; resilience; mainstreaming

Corresponding address:
Mr. Guoyi Han Stockholm Environment Institute Lilla Nygatan 1 Box 2142, S-103 14 Stockholm, Sweden Tel: +46-8-412-1433 Fax: +46-8-723-0348 Email: guoyi.han@sei.se

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Integrated Flood Forecasting on Multi-Jurisdictional River Basins Lessons from Data Management in Lancangjiang-Mekong Countries
Bastien Affeltranger
Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Bonn, Germany

Abstract: Each year, 1 to 8 million people is directly or indirectly affected by Mekong floods. Not all countries are equally affected, but efficient flood mitigation is needed to secure the gains of development, and to preserve social stability. Flood mitigation and management have progressively become objectives of intergovernmental cooperation on the Lower Mekong. Developing flood forecasting and warning capacities has been a key feature of this process. There was an early recognition that forecasting activities on the Mekongs main stem and on its major tributaries are linked. The success of forecasting therefore appeared to depend a lot on the successful exchange of hydrological and meteorological data among Mekong countries. At basin level, cooperation with P.R. China has also been developed. A Ph.D. research has been conducted in 2004-2005 in all but one Mekong countries, and at the Mekong River Commission Secretariat. Support was received from most of national water administrations of visited countries. This research shows that circulation of water-related data remains difficult in the Mekong region. This is the case both within and among countries. Technical, financial, strategic and political factors have been found to limit the exchange or sharing of hydrological data. These factors include: ageing hydrometric networks; maintenance and skills; operation rules for reservoirs; wet season and dry season issues; competition among water-related institutions; etc. In the long run, the lack of such data has a detrimental impact on the technical efficiency, social ownership and political stability of water-related projects on the Mekong river basin. This communication therefore advocates that integrated disaster risk reduction also requires an integrated approach for data management. In addition, research findings obtained on the Mekong river basins can be useful for the management of major transboundary basins. Likewise, lessons learned on the Mekong can be beneficial to countries where the management of very large river basins involves the interaction of multiple jurisdictions dealing with water-related data.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Bastien Affeltranger United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Goerresstrasse 15 D-53113 Bonn Germany Tel.: +49-228-422-855-11 Fax: +49-228-422-855-99 Email: affeltranger@ehs.unu.edu

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Poster Sessions A
for Senior Researchers

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Problems of Managing Volunteers Active in Disaster From a Case of Chuetsu Earthquake


Isamu Suzuki, Toshinari Nagasaka, Teruki Fukuzono
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, 305-0006, Japan.

Abstract: The Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.8, occurred on the evening of Oct. 23, 2004 in Japan. Approximately 40 people were killed, more than 100,000 people evacuated and more than 90,000 houses destroyed. Since the Kobe Earthquake of 1995, Volunteer centers for disaster relief are often organized and managed by government administrations, disaster NPOs and community-based organizations together following great natural disasters in Japan. More than 10 volunteer centers were built at stricken-areas at the Chuetsu earthquake (Nagaoka, Ojiya, Kawaguchi and so on). The present study focused on volunteer activities in Nagaoka and interview research with staff of Nagaoka council of social welfare, disaster NPO, and residents was conducted. We examined problems of volunteer management. The following problems of volunteer activities were found from our research: How to cope with unexpected issues quickly and accurately without a manual, how to apply knowledge from the earthquake to the next disaster and to other regions, how to train volunteer leaders who can attend to the relief activities for a long time, how to hand on the activities to local people or organizations. Some suggestions for volunteer management for the next disasters were found. 1. Need of coordination among volunteer centers. 2. Need of long-term supports. 3. Device to make the best use of volunteers or NPOs as a catalyst. 4. Need of cooperation with community-based organizations in ordinary time. 5. Need of global network to share there experiences. Key words: the Chuetsu earthquake; disaster volunteers; volunteer center for disaster relief

Corresponding address:
Mr. Isamu Suzuki National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7548 Fax: +81-29-856-0740 Email: QYJ10210@nifty.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Fundability Study on Feasibility of Seismic Risk Swap and its Condition Setting
Harumi Yashiro1, Seiichiro Fukushima2
1.Tokio Marine & Nichido Risk Consulting Co., Ltd, 1-2-1, Marunouchi, Chiyoda, Tokyo, 100-0005, Japan; 2.Tokyo Electric Power Services Co. Ltd, 3-3-3, Higashi-Ueno, Taito, Tokyo 110-0015, Japan

Abstract: Recently, some seismic risk management measures are utilized based on the qualitative and quantitative estimations of seismic risk. These measures are categorized into risk control and risk financing; the former is essential to mitigate seismic risk and the latter is effective to compensate the unexpected loss caused by unforeseeable and complicated seismic events. In this paper, a seismic risk swap is employed as a risk financing measure. Seismic risk swap is the contract between two parties, so that each party can utilize the reserve fund of counterpart as a recovery cost in case earthquake damage occurs. In order to give the contract accountability and a transparency, a seismic risk swap using a parametric trigger is employed. Before examining the applicability of the measure, conditions to make seismic risk swap realistic are defined. Those are as follows; A payment does not exceed a reserve fund, An annual expected payment is identical for each party, A payment in case of earthquake is identical for each party, and, Seismic losses do not occur to two parties simultaneously. For numerical illustration, portfolios consisting of 50 buildings in Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka are employed. Through the examination, it is shown that the seismic risk swap is feasible, if the parameters defining the payment rule are set properly. Also proposed is a procedure to determine the parameters mentioned above from the viewpoint of reduction in probabilistic maximum loss. Key words: seismic risk management; risk swap; portfolio of buildings

Corresponding address:
Mr. Harumi Yashiro Tokyo Marine & Nichido Risk Consulting Co., Ltd. 2-1 Marunouchi 1-chome Chiyoda-Ku 100-0005 Tokyo Japan Tel: +81-3-5288-6587 Fax: +81-3-5288-6590 Email: h.yashiro@tokiorisk.co.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Preliminary Study on Insurance of Seismic Indirect Economic Loss


Endong Guo, Zifa Wang
Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080 China

Abstract: The seismic economic loss can be classified in to two categories, one is seismic direct economic loss, and the other one is the seismic indirect economic loss. The seismic indirect economic loss includes losses due to stop and drop in production of enterprises, sections-connected, disaster relief direct investment and rise in investment price. Seismic insurance is an effective measure to reduce the risk of future earthquake disasters, the insurance projects of indirect seismic economic loss should satisfy the following two essential requirements, one is the specification of insured object, and the indirect economic loss can be evaluated by the damage or function state of the insured object; the other is that the determination of insurance fee rate has maneuverability. The following items can be included in the insurance system, a) loss due to stop and drop in production of lifeline systems, b) loss caused by stop and drop in production of factory or enterprises, c) loss of business suspending of market and shop, d) loss of business suspending of hotel and restaurants, e) loss due to function loss of residence, f) loss caused by contract brake. The insurance fee rate of seismic indirect economic loss is much the same as insurance fee rate of seismic direct economic loss; the seismic vulnerability of insured object and the seismic risk of the region are key factors to set the fee rate. Key words: Seismic Indirect Economic Loss; insurance

Corresponding address:
Prof. Endong Guo Institute of Engineering Mechanics, CEA 29 Xuefu Road, Harbin, Heilongjiang 150080 Harbin China Tel: 0451-86652268 Fax: 0451-86664755 Email: iemged@263.net

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Earthquake Disaster Impact on the Rural Residents A Case Study of Dayao County of Yunnan Province
Ying Wang1, Peijun Shi1, Jingai Wang2
1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University. Beijing 100875, China; 2. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences; Key Laboratory of Regional Geography of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: According to destructive earthquake records in 1990~2004, there are about 99% earthquakes of all records occurred in the rural areas of China. Now with the quick process of urbanization in China rural areas, the losses caused by earthquake in rural areas will increase. Ms 6.2 and Ms 6.1 earthquakes occurred in Dayao county in Yunnan province in July 21 and Oct. 16, 2003. The paper takes the Dayao county as an example to study the earthquake disaster impact on the rural residents, and to find out the risk awareness and the action faced on the earthquake of rural residents, especially the residents live in the high earthquake occurrence frequency areas. The analysis of investigate showed that the rural residents is the most casualties in the earthquake disaster and the largest risk affected man. They can get some experiences and lessons from the earthquake disaster and enhance their risk awareness, but it was the backward economic that the rural residents only have the ability to rebuild the brick-and-timber structure or the adobe-and-timber structure houses, which have the lower earthquake-resistant performance. So they cannot basically change the vulnerability of the hazard affected-bodies. The improving capability for disaster prevention and reduction in China rural areas need the actively participation of the government. Keywords: Earthquake Disaster, Rural Residents, Impact, China

Corresponding address:
Dr. Ying Wang Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology Beijin Normal University No. 19, Out of Xiejiekou Avenue 100875 Beijing China Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: wy@ires.cn

Projected supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40301003) 84

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Valuing Avoidance of Life Inconvenience in Evacuation Case of Floods in Japan


Guofang Zhai1, Teruko SATO1, Teruki FUKUZONO1, Saburo IKEDA1,2
1. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-0006, Japan 2. Emetics Professor of University of Tsukuba, Tennodai 1-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-0006, Japan

Abstract: A flood is a mixture of natural, economic, social and cultural phenomena; and, conversely, its consequences exert effects on natural, economic, social and cultural systems. The damage from floods may include human damage, direct damage and indirect effects. The indirect effects including the life inconvenience in evacuation are very important for evaluating the efficiency of flood disaster prevention investment. On the other hand, evacuation ratios in case of Japanese floods usually are very low. One of the main reasons is considered as the life inconvenience in evacuation. This paper mainly aims to explore the public willingness to pay for the avoidance of life inconvenience in evacuation using the contingent valuation method (CVM). The questionnaire-based survey was conducted by mail method in the areas severely affected by floods and storms last year: Sanjo city of Niigata Prefecture, Fukui city of Fukui Prefecture and Toyooka city of Hyogo Prefecture from February 10 to March 14, 2005. All three floods caused disastrous losses not only in economical damages, but also in life losses. The number of samples is 1000 for each area, respectively, and totally 3000. The response rate is 42%. The main findings show that approximately 30% residents prefer the evacuation in charged hotels to avoid the inconvenience of life as evacuees, provided that the evacuation period is 10 days. Their willingness to pay for it is 2000 yen/day in median and 3063 yen/day in mean. Key words: life inconvenience; evacuation; willingness to pay (WTP); floods; contingent valuation method (CVM)

Corresponding address:
Dr. Guofang Zhai National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7545 Fax: +81-29-856-0740 Email: zhai@bosai.go.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Risk Perception of Flood and Landslide Victims in Taiwan


Mingchou Ho1, Daigee Shaw2, Suyu Lin3
1. Socio-Economic System Division, Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan; 2. Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica; 3. Ming-Hsin University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

Abstract: In 2004, many towns in Taiwan suffered from serious floods and landslides, causing enormous economic loss and fatalities. People residing in the flood and landslide areas differ in many aspects such as socio-economic status and culture. For instance, most residents in the landslide areas are indigenous people and live in the mountain areas, however most residents in flood area are not indigenous and live in the urban areas. It is important and intriguing to understand the flood and landslide survivors attitudes toward the disasters they suffered. The present study employed questionnaire-based survey to collect data from flood and landslide victims respectively. The current study has two purposes. First, to examine the possible latent variables able to account for victims attitudes to natural disasters they faced. The traditional psychometric model usually emphasizes on civilians general views on a wide range of risk events. Yet, the current study emphasized on victims views toward natural disasters they suffered. Second, to examine the well-documented causal relationship between loss of controllability and learned helplessness. Results showed that the identical latent variables were extracted from flood victims and indirect landslide victims (in which the debris flow did not directly strike victims houses). Those latent variables were dread and controllability. Moreover, in the group of direct landslide victims (in which the debris flow directly stroke victims houses), dread and knowledge were extracted. In addition, we examined whether the sense of loss of controllability was related to the negative explanatory type of disasters proposed by learned helplessness theory. Results showed that in direct landslide victims, sense of controllability loss caused the negative explanatory type of disasters such as nothing but destiny determines the occurrence of natural disasters to them. In conclusion, the current results might be explained by the different socio-economic conditions in the flood and landslide areas, and by the different characteristics of flood and landslide.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Mingchou Ho Socio-Economic Division Science and Technology Center For Disaster Reduction 3F., NO. 106, Sec. 2 HoPing E. Rd. Taipei 106, Taiwan, China Tel: +886-2-66300636 Fax: +886-2-66300600 Email: hoha@ncdr.nat.gov.tw

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Flood Hazard Map and Residents Recognition of Flood Risk Information


Yukiko Takeuchi, Teruko Sato, Teruki Fukuzono, Saburo Ikeda
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention(NIED), Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-city, Ibaraki-prefecture, 305-0006 Japan

Abstract: A hazard map is considered as one of the most useful tools that help residents to obtain disaster information in advance. It contains, in general, various types of data and information concerning to the flooding scale and the mechanism, shelter for evacuation, etc. To facilitate for the residents to take proper disaster prevention actions, it is primarily important to call the residents attention to the hazard map prior to disaster for their finding necessary risk information on the disasters where they might encounter in some emergency cases. However, the traditional ways of displaying the flood risk information in the hazard map are not well developed to facilitate the peoples understanding the uncertainties attached in the flood data such as precipitation percentage, land conditions, and presumption associated with probabilistic flooding simulations. We conducted a questionnaire survey on the residents recognition of flood hazard map and flood risk information displayed in the map. Survey areas were Western Nagoya City and Nishi-biwashima Town in Aichi prefecture hit by the serious flood disaster on 11 September 2000. After the disaster, a new hazard map was designed based on the revised flood prevention program along the river-basin and distributed to the residents in 2003. Our questionnaire was sent to 3,000 residents sampled in these areas on March 2004, and 849 responses were collected which amounted 28% of all the sampled objects. The questionnaire includes various questions on the flood hazard map and precipitation percentage, etc. The outcome of survey results shows that the local residents do not necessarily understand the uncertainties involved in risk information such as the inundated depth of the flooded areas in relation to the possible precipitation percentage and land conditions which might bring the catastrophic disasters. It is suggested that we need to re-examine the traditional methods of displaying the flooding information on the hazard map in such a way that facilitates the residents understanding on flood risk data in terms of uncertainties involved in predicting the flooding disasters. Key words: Flood Disaster; Hazard Map; Risk Information; Questionnaire Survey

Corresponding address:
Ms. Yukiko Takeuchi National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7552 Fax: +81-29-856-0740 Email: takeuchi@bosai.go.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Risk Analysis of Urban Rainfall Waterlogging in TianJin City


Suqin Han1.2, Yiyang Xie
1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin 300074, China

2. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Tianjin 300074, China Abstract: The city is a higher region of risk for urban rainfall waterlogging. The human activity changes characteristics of urban hydrology when economy develop at high speed. Since puddles and lakes reduce, city reduced the function of regulating the rain water and keeping the rain water. The area of concrete increase and the rain water permeating reduce. Resistance coefficient of stream is lower when rain water flow along street. On urban heat island effect makes the rainfall frequency increasing in city, and the rainfall intensity is often strong over the suburb. At the same time , when the urban population increase, require for supplying and draining water is enlarging. The design standard for drainage system is lower relatively. As urban ground sink to decline and to become the new marsh land , the urban rain-storm waterlogging is outstanding increasingly. When the urban waterlogging take place, the traffic suffer jam , houses enter the water, work and life for citizenry is affected seriously. It is very important what analysis risk characteristic distributing and change rule for urban waterlogging, to reducing disaster and programming city for the reasonable development. In this paper based on the emulational mode of urban waterlogging developed by TianJin Insititute of Meteorolagical Sciences and China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, to simulate the urban accumulated water on surface under the different rainfall intensity, and to evaluate the risk of urban waterlogging .

Corresponding address:
Dr. Suqin Han College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University; Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences Qixiangtai road 100, Hexi District ,Tianjin city 300074 Tianjin China Tel: 23351790 Fax: 23351790 Email: Sq_han@sina.com.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Weibull Distributions and Evaluate of Flood Disaster


Bainian Li
School of statistics & Applied Mathematics, An hui University of Finance & Economics, An hui 233041, China

Abstract: In this paper we first study on the flood area of Huai river valley with Weibull distributions, reveal the regulation of the flood area of Huai river valley and establish linear regression model for disk Huai river valley with four provinces flood disaster. This method can calculate the lever of damage rapidly and it is especially helpful when dealing with large samples. Key wordsWeibull distributions; venture function; flood disaster; linear regression

Corresponding address:
Prof. Bainian Li School of statistics & Applied Mathematics, An hui University of Finance & Economics 233041 bengbu China Tel: 0552-3126460 Email: libainian49@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Analysis on the 04.6.23 Flash Flood and Geological Disasters in Hunan Province and its Warning and Forecasting Service
Xiaolan Wang, Nouzhou Li, Xianyun Wu
Hunan Meterology Bureau, Changsha 410007, China

Abstract: This article outlined the mountain torrent geologic damage occurred on June 23 in 2004 year in Hunan Province ; analyzed the conditions it occurred; at the same time ,It emphasized the importance of the meteorological early warning and forecast in decreasing catastrophic event, Furthermore , this article Probed for the factors to lead to the outbreak of mountain torrent geologic damages, and suggested some experiences which might be applied in earning warnings and some related questions which should be noticed in weather forecast. Key words: geologic damage early warning service condition of a disaster; precipitation

Corresponding address:
Ms. Xiaolan Wang Hunan observatory No. 163, Yuhua Road, Changsha City 410007 Changsha China Tel: 0731-5600003 Fax: 0731-5600003 Email: hnwxl1225@yahoo.com.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Approach on Urban Debris Flow Risk Assessment


Chuan Tang, Jing Zhu
National Professional Laboratory for Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China

Abstract: This paper approached an integrated methodology for urban debris flow risk assessment. Procedure of the methodology involved debris flow hazard zonation, Urban vulnerability evaluation and risk assessment. Debris flow hazard zonation on the alluvial fan of the study area are created by overlaying distributed flow depth and velocity maps, which are produced through the numerical simulation. Detailed land cover information was derived using the Quickbird high spatial resolution satellite imagery and then we evaluated the vulnerability value to different land-use features. Based on a GIS statistical and analytical tool urban debris flow risk assessment for the study area was completed. This risk zonation map can be used for debris flow mitigation by identifying hazard prone areas allowing for avoidance through zoning or other land use policy decision. In addition, residents who live in debris flow prone areas need risk information for evacuation and prevention planning. Key words: urban debris flow; land cover features; vulnerability; risk assessment

Corresponding address:
Prof. Chuan Tang National Professional Laboratory for Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059 Chengdu China Tel: 028-84077505 Email: tangc@cdut.edu.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Research on Debris Flow along Highway in China


Hongkai Chen, Hongmei Tang
Institute of Geotechnical, Chongqing jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China

Abstract: Debris flow along highway is one kind of debris flow to impact,destroy and submerge highway strongly. Submiting to some special demands such as destroy level to highway, discern easily in field, broad in scope, and direct against control techniques, calssification of the debris flow is built. Disaster of highway by debris flow include abutment damage, upstructure damage, foundation scour of aburment, submergment of abridge, and roadbed damage. There are about 6000 debris flows along highway in China, and cause economic lose at least 50 hundred milion RMB every year. Many typical and giant debris flow along highway deduce from coupling with abundant loose material, meteological condition with fohn effect and consistence between debris flow valley and neo-tectonics stress field. In the course of researches on debris flow along highway, both of kinetics and kinematics of debris flow are focused. Authors build method to calculate velocity of debris flow in view of two-phase theory in this paper, then set up formula to certify impact force of debris flow on structures to control debris flow or banks of debris flow valley, and kinetics formulas to forecast both of abrasion velocity and amount of these strucutres. To protect highway from debris flow and ensure continue traffic, develop tens of single control techniques, for example, high-speed drainage structure, submerge tunnel, wing-shaped pier and bed-roughened pile etc., further put forward four synthetic models using these single techniques. Establish method to calculate range distance of debris flow across highway, and kinetics equations of control strucutres. Develop some new materials and strucutres against impact and abrasion of debris flow. Results above constitute essentially theories and control techniques of debris flow along highway. Key words: debris flow along highway; kinetics of debris flow; kinematics of debris flow; control techniques

Corresponding address:
Prof. Hongkai Chen Chongqing Jiaotong University Institute of Geotechnical,Chongqing Jiaotong University,66# Xuefu Rd, 400074 Chongqing China Tel: 023-62652719 Fax: 023-62652719 Email: Bialik@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Site-Specific Assessment of Debris Flow Vulnerability: Case Studies


Xilin Liu
Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China

Abstract: Hereby the vulnerability is defined as the potential total maximum losses because of a debris flow damaging event for the specific catchment. The vulnerability is classified into property vulnerability and population vulnerability. Assessment indexes include the assets of buildings, traffic facilities, lifeline works, personal properties, and land resources for property vulnerability assessment; age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants, natural population growth rate, and population density for population vulnerability assessment. The vulnerability is expressed as the sum of the losses of the property and population. Two transformed valuation functions for the property and population indexes are developed to measure the vulnerability quantitatively. Two study cases in Sichuan (SW China) are presented. Key words: Vulnerability; quantitative assessment; debris flow; site-specific catchment

Corresponding address:
Prof. Xilin Liu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences P.O.Box 417,Chengdu, Sichuan 610041 610041 Chengdu China Tel: 85220923 Fax: 85229773 Email: xlliu@imde.ac.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Agricultural Drought Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Farm Households


Yanrui Shang
School of Resources and Environmental Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050016, China

Abstract: Drought is the most severe agricultural disaster in North China in recent decades. Farm households as basic management units of agricultural production are the elementary affected bodies. Their vulnerability is expressed both in growing season in the form of incapable of irrigation or management, and insecurity of food or insufficient reproduction capacity in the nest turn or inadequate coping capacity in daily life. The vulnerability of households is derived from the interaction of physical system and social-economic system. Farm households exhibit unequal vulnerability to drought in difference agricultural ecological zones due to unbalanced access to natural and social resources. This in return affects local agricultural environmental structure and function making drought being exaggerated or mitigated on a larger scale. This paper reviewed the approaches of vulnerability assessment and made up an assessment framework. Also an assessment study has been carried out based on the on site investigation of 100 households in Xingtai county of Hebei Province. The result shows that rainfall fluctuation is the physical pressure to crop failure, while the incapable of coping with drought is the social dimension. The later lie in various reasons including insufficient of water resources, inability to afford irrigation or reluctant to irrigate. During and after drought event, vulnerable households crop yield usually decreases. They cannt cope well in their daily life too. Basically, per capita cropland determines cropland use intensity and eventually households sensitivity to drought. The economic development stage and income level as well as the literacy affect directly and indirectly their adaptive capacity. Under the condition of local successive over exploitation of surface and underground water, the most vulnerable are always those households that are limited by both per capita natural resources and financial ability to irrigate. The way to mitigate drought disaster is to lower down the vulnerability pressure from multi-dimensions, including promoting irrigation efficiency and management capacity by training and subsidize or by decreasing dependency on agriculture by diversifying and stabilizing out farm income. Therefore, agricultural system can be sustainable at least on a local scale. Key words: Agricultural drought; Vulnerability Assessment; Irrigated agricultural area; Farm households

Corresponding address:
Dr. Yanrui Shang College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University,China, No.265,Yuhuadonglu, 050016 Shijiazhuang China Tel: 86-0311-7816015 Fax: 86-0311-8600019 Email: shangyanrui@sohu.com

Funded by National Natural Science foundation of China (40271005and Doctor Fund of Hebei Normal University 103237 94

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Appraisement of Agricultural Disaster Risk and its Application to the Cultivated Land Management in China
Yun Su1,2, Hongjian Zhou1,2, Jingai Wang1,2, Zhen Liu1
1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: This paper analyses the natural disaster risk from three aspects including the risk of the hazard-formative factor, the frangibility of the hazard-affected body and the ability of the disaster mitigation and resistance. The data source comes from the map of the frequency distribution, the degree of crop loss caused by disaster and the distribution according to disaster resistant ability of four kinds of agricultural disaster including drought, flood, hail and low temperature-cold disaster. Based on the method of layer overlay, we gain the map of the integrative risk grade distribution of the agricultural disaster. The combination of the maps of risk distribution and the cultivated land shows the superposition, which means the high risk area is also the main grain yield area. The highest risk area of the agricultural disaster locates in the Dongting Lake Plain and the Guangxi Basin, including Hunan, Eastern Hubei and Northeastern Guangxi, where the main cultivated land type is the paddy field; The comparatively higher risk area mainly locates in the Guizhou Plateau, the Guanzhong Basin, the Nanyang Basin, the Poyang Lake Plain, the Jiangnan Hill and the Liangguang Hill, where the main cultivated land type is also the paddy field except some dry farmland and irrigable land in the north; The medium risk area mainly locates in the Huanghuai Plain, the Shandong Hill, the Loess Plateau, the Sichuan Basin and the Yunnan Plateau, where the main cultivated land types are the irrigable land and the dry farmland. The agricultural disaster risk should be lead into the cultivated land management. Firstly, take the degree of the agricultural disaster risk as one index and bring it into the quality appraisement system when classify the current cultivated land in order to exactly calculate the cultivated land productivity, apply into the management of the cultivated land quantity balance and avoid the decline of the integral quality under its quantity balance; Secondly, take the degree of the agricultural disaster risk into account in the cultivated land evaluation in order to exactly calculate its value, apply it into the management of the cultivated land circulation, confirm the price of the cultivated land tenancy and the standard of levy compensation, and promote the orderly circulation of cultivated land; Finally, set the risk consciousness in the cultivated land use and enhance insurance in order to apportion and disperse the risk. Key words: agricultural disaster; cultivated land management; disaster risk; China

Corresponding address:
Dr. Yun Su College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University; 100875 Beijing China Tel: (86)(10)58807454-1632 Fax: (86)(10)58807454 Email: suyun@bnu.edu.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Agriculture Drought Vulnerability Assessment


Chun-yan YANG 1,3, Jing-ai WANG 1,2, Yun SU 1,2, Zhi-qiang WANG 1,2
1.Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2.College of Geography & Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3.Beijing Normal University Library, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: Based on the theory of regional natural disaster system, this paper sets up agriculture drought disaster system and its vulnerability assessment index system, establishes synthetical assessment model of agriculture drought vulnerability and points out that agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is a process: it emphasizes frangibility of regional agriculture production system before disaster and adaptability of regional farmhouses after disaster. Agriculture drought vulnerability assessment is carried through taking Xinghe County as a case, which is located in the typical area of the Farming-pastoral Zone in the North of China, and the result shows that: agriculture drought vulnerability of the Farming-pastoral Zone mainly influenced by the proportion of farming and pastoral area on county scale and by the proportion of the non farming-pastoral income on farmhouse scale. Thereby, how to combine farming and stock raising development and develop the non farming-pastoral industry reasonably and effectively are the two key points of reducing agriculture drought vulnerability in this area. Key Words: agriculture drought vulnerability; assessment model; farming-pastoral zone; Xinghe County

Corresponding address:
Ms. Chuyan Yang
Beijing Normal University Library,

Beijing Normal University No.19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875 Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email:

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The study On the Snowmelt Index and Assessment of Snow Disaster in Pasture of Inner Mongolia
Z. J. LI Ning Li C. N. Gong and X. H. Wu
1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory, Huhhot, 010051,China; 2.Institute of Disaster and Public Security, Key Laboratory of Environmental Changes and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: In this paper the practical methods of monitoring, pre-warningand assessment of snow disaster are
discussed. The deficiency of the evaluation method based on snow depth and the cause of these problems are put forward. The first snowmelt index in China is established, and a synthesis assessment approach of snow disaster is presented based on the snowmelt index, the quantity and duration of snow cover, the abundance and deficiency of pasturage, and the physical condition of livestock. The monitoring model of snow disaster is established and a division standard of the grades of snow disaster peculiar to Inner Mongolia is put forward too. The Inner Mongolia grassland is the biggest production base of animal husbandry in China, with natural grassland about 0.867 X 108 ha. However, the animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia mostly depends on the natural grassland resources to graze livestock. The merits of the livestocking practice are little investment and large income in short period, but it depends heavily on the natural resources and thus is thus easily destroyed by natural disasters. The interval droughts, snowstorm disasters, are the main constrained factors for the development of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. The winter period in most areas of Inner Mongolia is more than 5 months, and even up to 7 months in northeastern of the region. In long severe winter, cold current, windstorm and snow disaster frequently occur in Inner Mongolia grassland, and they always cause serious damage to the livestock industry in Inner Mongolia. From 26 Oct to 30 Oct 1977, there was a large snowfall in mid-east Inner Mongolia, averaging snowfall ranged from 10 mm to 30 mm and the largest snowfall arrived at 57.4mm in XilinHot. After the snowstorm, there was deep snow cover from 15cm to 50cm in most regions, and it would cause severe snow disaster. This snow disaster resulted in the death of more than 3 million livestock. 2.15 million livestock of XiLinGuoLe League died in the disaster. In some Banners/counties, more than 70 percent of livestock died of the snow disaster. On May 1011, 1981, there was a snowstorm in eastern XinlinGuoLe League, and the disaster resulted in the death of 100 thousand livestock. According to statistics, the death of livestock in Inner Mongolia added up to 87.6 million in the past fifty years. One third of death is from snow disaster. So it is significantly important to take disaster mitigation and reduction action to strengthen the study of snow disaster monitoring, pre-warning and snow disaster assessment. Key words: snowmelt index; snow disaster; assessment of snow disaster; Inner Mongolia

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Study on Predicting Technology of Coal Bed Methane Based on Double-Phase Media Theory
Shuangan Yang, Shunian Ning, Huixing Zhang
China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, China

Abstract: Because the people understand of rich information from seismic exploitation is so much limited by the theory of single-phase pure solid media that the coal seismic exploitation technology locates basically in the phase of structure prospecting. In the article, the dilatational wave equations in double-phase isotropy media are researched based on double-phase media theory and numerical modeling of seismic wave equation is made for coal bed methane. The after-fold records show that the reflection amplitude of double-phase media is obviously weaker than that of single-phase media, and the characteristics of low frequency resonance and high frequency attenuation. The theory results reach good fit comparing to seismic data and real mining data, sufficiently illuminate that double-phase media theory has abroad application future in predicting the distribution rules of coal bed methane. Key words: Double-phase media theory; wave equation; coal bed methane; numerical modeling.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Shuangan Yang China University of Mining and Technology D 11 ,Xueyuan Road ,Haidian District, 100083 Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email: yangshuangan@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Integration of Disaster Management Need to Include Fire Prevention Policy in Country like Nepal: Case Study from Nepal
Pokharel PK, Pokharel HP, Aryal K, Jha N,Nagesh S
Department of Community Medicine, BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences, Dharan, Nepal

Abstract: About 300 families were rendered homeless and property worth NRs two billion reduced to a cinder, after a blazing fire gutted down at least 80 houses and several government offices here, the district headquarters, on Sunday evening. An estimated property worth NRs two billion was damaged due to the fire but added that it would go up, as details of the property damaged have yet to be evaluated. The fire which erupted due to a short-circuit inside a tailors room, spread through the entire area and was contained several hours later at round nine in the morning. But smoke could be seen belching out of the rubble of the carried houses and people were seen bemoaning the loss of their property. The families rendered homeless in public buildings, schools and campuses, restore drinking water supply, electricity and communications, organize free health camps and remove the rubble from the area as soon as possible. Nobody was hurt in the incident, as all the locals had already fled their houses before the blaze spread all over the bazaar. Apart from 77 private and commercial firms, the fire also gutted the buildings of Nepal Bank Limited, Comptrollers Office, District Co-operative Office, quarters and store of District Development Committee. Locals are now facing acute shortage of food supply, drinking water electricity and communications. Rescuers said they were helpless in the lack of adequate fire extinguishers. The nearest fire service takes 6 hours to reach to the place. One of the greatest challenges before the authorities was to provide the homeless families with food and shelter. He feared that an epidemic could break out in the area, as sources of water went out of order and many cattle died on the fire. One of the victims said that people from the adjoining bazaar could not come here due to the dusk-to dawn curfew order imposed for the last one year. There is more news every summer and loss of life and property is neither insured nor reimbursed by any party, the victim deepens in vicious cycle of poverty .Housing, Human Behavior nor lack of awareness & prompt response is the key factors of Fire Disasters with immense loss in each year in country like Nepal.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Paras K. Pokharel Associate Professor Department of Community Medicine, BP Koirala Institute of Health Sciences, Dharan, Nepal Tel: +977-25-530033 Fax: +977-25-520251 Email: bpkihs@bpkihs.edu

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Reducing Calamity and Continuation Able Development for Expo


Zhaokang Xu
Department of Environment and Energy Engineering, Shanghai Institute of Technology, Shanghai 200235, China

Abstract: As an oversize city of the world-class, how to set up the guarantee system of safety and boost up preventing and reducing calamity and ability of meet an emergency of the city to Shanghai in a round build of the Expo of the city. This is confronted with a new question for discussion from the branch of the government to the ordinary citizen. It is the strategic key for continuation able development to a city. We must do scientific layout, systemic management, a buildup of consciousness and harmonious development to construct a harmonious society and realize a goal of Expo for Better city, better life.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Zhaokang Xu Department of Environment and Energy Engineering, Shanghai Institute of Technology 120 Caobao Road 200235 Shanghai China Tel: 64945003,64754158 Fax: 64941443 Email: xzksh@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Measures for Preventing Disaster of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality


Osman Killic
Soil and Earthquake Research Department, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality

Abstract: SCIENTIFIC and TECHNICAL STUDIES of I.M.M. Studies on Urban Geology Earthquake Stations Earthquake Prediction Project Emergency Transportation Action Plan (Earthquake,flood and snow) International Meetings and Publications Microzonation and Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan Earthquake Master Plan for Istanbul (EMPI) Implementation of EMPI (Zeytinburnu Pilot Project (a district in Istanbul) A Project with Europa Union, FORESIGHT

Corresponding address:
Mr. Osman Killic Soil and Earthquake Research Department Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Gentrk Cad. Gmrkemini Sok. Yigitalp Center 34999 Laleli-Eminn-Istanbul Turkey Tel: +90-212-5114743 Fax: +90-212-5114701 Email: osmankilic@yahoo.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Design of Meteorological Disaster Evaluation Query and Display Operational System Based on GrADS in SCEM
Wendong Hu1,2, Frderic CHAVEAU3, Maurice MERLET3, Jianjun Ding1,2
1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750002, China; 2. Ningxia Meteorological Observation, Yinchuan 750002, China; 3. Service Central dEexploitation de la Meteorologie, Meteo-France, Toulouse, 31057, France

Abstract: A meteorological disaster evolution query and display operational system was developed in Unix operation system, local network environment, using PROC, GrADS script and shell languages in the meteorological centre of France. The data were extracted from real-time meteorological, historical and climate oracle data base by SQL, and were organised into GrADS format files to meet the operational graphic demands. Guided by the principles of software system engineering the characters of stability, reliability and the features of easy-maintaining, convenience, client-oriented were ensured also by taking special measures, and the need of operational running was guaranteed. Key words: SCEM; GrADS; meteorological disaster evaluation; operational system design.

Corresponding address:
Eng. Wendong Hu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing of Ningxia, Ningxia Meteorological Observation 750002 Yinchuan China Tel: 86-951-5043015 Fax: 86-951-5043015 Email: hu.wendong@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Method for Calculating Integrated Index of Regional Disaster Risk


Luchuan Ren1, Biejun2, Haijun Huang2, Baoshu Yin2
1. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China 2. Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Science, Qingdao 266071, China

Abstract: Although regional disaster risk can be considered as the reflection of the occurrence probability of regional disasters, it is difficult to direct use it in integrated disaster risk management, so it is necessary to find a method for calculating integrated index of regional disaster risk. In terms of information system theory, both the definition of weighted regional disaster entropy and the formula for calculating it are firstly proposed in this paper. Then, in the case study, the author calculates the weighted regional disaster entropy with the damage area data of drought disaster and flood-waterlogging disaster from 1949 to 1994 in Shandong Province of China. The result shows that the weighted regional disaster entropy can be regarded as an integrated index of regional disaster risk, and the method for calculating weighted regional disaster entropy given in this paper is simple and convenient.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Luchuan Ren Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences No. 19, Yuquan Rd., 100049 Beijing China Tel: 13911651340 Email: renlc@gscas.ac.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Large-Scale Evacuation of People from Urban Disaster


Fang Zheng1, JiangPing Yuan1, Siuming Lo2
1. Civil Engineering School ,Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; 2. Department of architecture, City University of Hong Kong

Abstract: Human populations are at risk from many natural and man-made hazards, such as the recent South Asian's tsunami strike and 2001 the New Yorks WTC 9/11 incident. Evacuation of people from the hazardous region is a way to reduce the ill effects of disasters and evacuation planning is a critical component in emergency management. The essay discusses on developing an integrated evacuation planning model to assist government to identify an appropriate evacuation strategy for a large urban area. Key words: disaster emergency management; evacuation planning; dynamic network flow; model

Corresponding address:
Dr. Siuming LO Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), PRC Hong Kong China Tel: 852-27887683 Fax: 852-27887612 Email: BCSMLI@cityu.edu.hk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Rebuilding Processes in the Fluctuation Zone of Three Gorges Reservoir and Bank Slope Disasters Mitigationthe case of Zhongxian County
Zhaoshuai Ge
College of urban and environmental sciences, Xuzhou Normal University, Jiangsu 221116, China,

Abstract: The fluctuation zone with the height of 40m or so will be formed when Three Gorges reservoir will be completed. The cause of the bank slope hazards will change along with the rise of the water stage. A field investigation for bank rebuilding processes was held in 2003. In Zhongxian County, 12 segments of the reservoir bank were selected for detailed investigation since the first-stage store water was completed in June, 2003. Some foreseeable and unforeseeable events happened in the reservoir bank slope zone along with the rise of the water stage. These events maybe hazard peoples life and property. The rebuilding factors in the bank slope can be divided into 4 sorts of processes relate to the slope hazards. The first is unstable steep slope failure, such as the segment near the Xianjiahe Bridge. With the rise of the water stage, the cutbank of Jurassic sand rock will be dipped into the water. The base rock with lots of joints will be more unstable. The second is ancient rockfall-landslide body revival. With the rise of the water stage, some of ancient rockfall-landslide sediments located in the fluctuation zone will be dipped into water again. They will become unstable under the effecting of the water fluctuation. The segments of Shunxi and Yangdu are the representatives of this type. The third is the residual sediments and slope wash slump. The incompact deposit layer is thin in such segments of bank slope. The slump and creep are the main destructive rebuilding processes. The representative is the segment of Shuiping Community. The last is fluvial deposits in the lower terrace. This sort of bank slope is falling back because of the erosion of wave in the slope foot. According to the features of slope hazards processes, some countermeasures, such as making retaining wall and pilings or migration and shunning, are often employed against the bank slope hazards. Based on the relative cost-benefit analysis and environmental impact scoping of different approaches for hazards reduction, some countermeasures which are propitious to the sustainable development of the reservoir area were suggested in this paper. Key words: three Gorges reservoir; rebuilding processes of reservoir bank; slope hazards; Zhongxian County

Corresponding address:
Dr. Zhaoshuai Ge Xuzhou Normal University College of urban and Environmental Sciences, Xuzhou Normal University, Jiangsu Province 221116 Xuzhou City China Tel: 0516-3899005 Email: gezhaoshuai@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Study on Weather Forecast and Alert of Geologic Disaster in Ningxia


Yuying Chen1, Guangping Zhao2, Hongying Wang3, Jianren Sang1
1. Ningxia key laboratory for meteorological disaster prevention and reductionYinchuan 750002China; 2. Institute of drought meteorology of Lanzhou, Lanzhou 730020, China; 3. Geologic environment monitoring station of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750021, China

Abstract: The distribution law and mechanism of the main Geological calamity in Ningxia were analyzed by using the data of rainfall and Geological calamity. The results show that Landslide and Mud-rock flow were the main Geological calamity in Ningxia , there are direct relations between precipitation and the weather conditions of Geological calamity, Geological calamity mainly happen in the season in which heavy rain and rainstorm occurred frequently, Landslide occurred in medium-late-term of precipitation or lagged the precipitation process in general, Mud-rock flow occurred at the same time when rainstorm or persistent precipitation occurred , and the larger the rainfall is, the easier for Geological calamity to occur and the main weather cause of Geological calamity were Continuity precipitationshort-term excessive precipitation and rainstorm. The forecast model of Geological calamity were established by using statistical methods. The model was put into practice in flood season in 2004, the results shows that it has some reference value in Geological calamity forecast , but it still need to be improved in future. Key words: geological calamity; mechanism; weather condition; weather forecast and alert

Corresponding address:
Eng. Yuying Chen Ningxia Meteorological Observation 750002 Yinchuan China Tel: 0951-5043015 Fax: 0951-5043015 Email: chenyuy@sina.com

106

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Design of a Structure to Implement the Newly Adopted Disaster Management Law in Algeria
Djillali Benouar
Built Environment Res. Lab (LBE), USTHB, Faculty of Civil Engineering, BP 32 El-Alia, Bab Ezzouar, Alger, Algeria

Abstract: In a country which regrettably is a disaster-prone as Algeria, it is of crucial importance, at the macro-level, for the country to have a well established and well regulated disaster management plan. This will enable the government to avoid undue crisis management when future emergencies occur. It is also of crucial importance, again at the macro-level, to integrate disaster management in all its facets with governments mainstream policies and plans for national development. Disaster management and economic development are not two separate disciplines that conflicts for resourcing. They are synonymous and their resourcing should be a combined administrative process. To fulfil these goals, the proposal of the establishment of a national disaster research and management agency in Algeria has two objectives (1) to prepare the national disaster management plan and (2) to create a sustainable cadre of disaster management staff at all levels, and to promote institutional and public awareness of disasters, their effects and likely relief activities. A proposed permanently established national disaster management organisation is presented. The organisation chart describes the structure, the chain of control and reporting, and the main working relationships. It allows having a permanently established and functioning integrated data collection system to gather information relevant to disaster management in all its aspects. However, it has a wider application and provides an important step forwards an effective national data collection system, and this will require extensive research work. Several partial data bases are already available and these will be drawn upon in the creation of the agency which will attempt to provide a more general view within a single framework. The structure of the agency will then incorporate existing government, non-government and community information/data sources in order to provide an overall picture of potential danger zones, multi-sectoral early warning indicators and available resources. This enables particular attention to be paid to problem geographic sectors or problem functions, and the consequent mobilisation and allocation of resources in advance of disasters.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Djillali Benouar Built Environment Res. Lab.(LBE) University of Bab Ezzouar (USTHB) Faculty of Civil Engineering, BP 32 El-Alia/ Bab Ezzouar, Alger 16111, Algeria Tel & Fax: +213 21 247 914/247 224 Mobile: +213 71 842 428 E-mail: dbenouar@yahoo.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Lecture to Handout Students Basic Knowledge and Skills to Choose Safe and Sustainable Dwellings for Risk Management
Hitomi Murakami1, Nobuhito Kojima2, Seiyu Hashimoto3
1. Division of Environmental Systems Engineering, Graduate School of Sci. & Engr., Yamaguchi University, 2-1-16, Tokiwadai, Ube, 755-8611, Japan; 2. Odawara City, Japan; 3. Department of Architecture, Hiroshima International University, Kure, 737-0112, Japan

Abstract: In Japan, a number of M8 plate boundary earthquakes are pending in the 21st century and seismic hazard is real threat in most part of the country. Although 12.2% of housing stock in Japan is vacant and the rate has been increasing, transactions in housing market for existing dwellings are much lower than those in the United States. Encouraging programs to increase proper reuse and retrofit of existing timber frame dwellings are important to mitigate urban seismic risk and to reduce C02 emission. Besides, current students need more freedom and flexibility to choose the places to live and to move where job opportunity is available. Therefore they certainly require basic knowledge and skills to choose locations relatively safe against earthquakes and floods and to choose reasonably safe and environmentally sustainable dwellings among newly constructed units and existing dwellings, and accordingly to manage financial risk and casualty to their family. This paper proposes contents of a lecture to teach students basic knowledge and skills to choose safe and sustainable dwellings, reports their responses, and discuss how they can be further improved and disseminated. Key words: Sustainable Dwellings; Earthquake Safety; Housing Stock; Renovation and Retrofit; Construction Waste; Risk Management; Timber Dwellings

Corresponding address:
Prof. Hitomi Murakami Disaster Mitigation Planning Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Yamaguchi University 2-16-1 Tokiwadai 755-8611 Ube Yamaguchi, Japan Tel/Fax: +81-836-85-9537 Fax: +81-836-85-9501 Email: hitomim@yamaguchi-u.ac.jp

108

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Safety Campus: Significance, Management & Structure


Benyu Liu, Liaoyuan Ye, Meiling Xiao
Institute of Public Safety and Disaster Prevention, Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091, China

Abstract: The public safety is one of the characters for the civilization of modern society. The management of public safety nowadays are active, synthetically and multi-discipline. The public safety in college is representative and outstanding among many public safety problems. From the macro point of view, this paper discusses the contents and frame of the safety campus management system. Some typical questions are reviewed, such as the hazardous distinguishing system of the college public safety, administration system, plans for emergency response and safety civilization in campus. These could provide some references for the elements research for safety campus, the capability of emergency response and campus safety. Key words: safety campus; hazardous distinguish; emergency response plan

Corresponding address:
Dr. Benyu Liu Institue of Public Safety and Disaster Prevention Yunnan University, No.2 of North Road of Greenlake, Kunming, Yunnan Province, PRC 650091 Kunming China Tel: 0871-6914137 Email: liubenyu@tsinghua.org.cn

109

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Study on Risk Perception of University Students


Jingyi Li1,2,3, Xilan Liu4
1. Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems (Lanzhou University), Ministry of Education, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China ; 2. Resource & Environment Department Of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China; 3. Key Lab. Of Disaster Monitoring And Mechanism Simulating Of Shaanxi Province, Shaanxi 721007, China; 4. Mathematics & Statistics Department Of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

Abstract: Risk education is the basic method of heightening the science and mentality diathesis of the whole nation. It is also the sticking point of continuous development and dealing with the relation between environment and development, while risk perception affects the establishment and implement of environmental education on some degree. The relatively analysis method is used to set up the index system of risk perception. By questionnaire to analysis the difference of risk perception because of individual difference in university and the result shows that, risk perception of is higher than that of male; that of arts students is higher than that of science students; that of students in lower grade is higher than that of higher grade students; that of students from city is higher than that of students from country and town; And the relative analysis between individual characteristic and risk perception shows that the relativity between subjects and risk perception is the highest among them, especially on risk knowledge and risk behavior. The correlation coefficients are 2.6582 and 2.5764, respectively. Second are the grades, whose correlation coefficients are -1.9152-1.7041 and-1.9013, respectively. There is higher relativity between sex and risk perception, especially on risk manner and risk behavior. The correlation coefficients are 1.9273 and 1.9571, respectively. The relativity between students region and risk perception is small. And the relativity between subject and risk perception is the highest. Thereafter is the grade, sex and student region in turn. Among them, there is a negative correlation between grade and risk perception. Key words: risk perception; individual difference; assessment system

Corresponding address:
Prof. Jingyi Li Resource & Environment Department, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou PO BOX 3011, Lan Zhou University, 730000 Lanzhou China Tel: Email: lijingyi@nju.org.cn

110

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Warning grassland rodent disaster experiment in south A-LU-KE-ER-QIN county


Xiaobo Wu 1, Guorong Liu 2, Yijing Cheng 2, Yalan Liu 1, Chengjie Wei 1
1The institute of remote sensing applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; 2The grassland work station of Chifeng, 024000, Chifeng, Inner Mongolia,China;

Abstract: There has been suffered from serious Meriones unguiculatus mouse disaster in A-LU-KE-ER-QIN county, Chifeng city, Inner Mongolia since 1974. This paper presents a mouse disaster warning method that used MODIS observation acquired on July 28, 2000 and July 28, 2003 as data source to extract grassland status, applied ecological warning model to predict the mouse disaster occurrence risk in 2001 and 2004. The warning results showed great coincidence with actual disaster field survey. The warning model, remotely sensed data processing, grassland vegetation quantitatively analyzing, warning factors description and its influence evaluating, and two warning experiments are discussed in detail. According to simulation, the mouse disaster occurrence probability is 82.58% in 2001, and 81.27% in 2004. Considered mouse perdition activities carried out, two figures are 44.59% and 36.75% respectively. The remote sensing method is effective in grassland mouse disaster warning, but it is constrained by remotely sensed data quality, adequate and precisely auxiliary data, appropriate warning model, and correct model parameters that representing local situations. Key word: grassland mouse disaster, ecological warning model, MODIS, Inner Mongolia

Corresponding address:
Dr. Xiaobo Wu The institute of remote sensing applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China Tel: +86-10-64862913 Fax: Email: wxbzym@sina.com; wxbzym@yahoo.com

111

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Primary study on relationship between airborne pollen density and pollinosis


Yurong Bai1 Yan Liu1 Binxian Liu1 Liyao Duan1 Li Pang2 Yaqin Meng3
1. Tianjin Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Tianjin , 300074 , China ; 2. Tianjin Municipal Chest Hospital, Tianjin , 300051 , China ; 3. Tianjin Municipal Gongan Hospital, Tianjin , 300051, China ;

Abstract: The data of the observed pollen and of the allergic case of pollen from Mar. 2000 to Oct.2002 were taken to statistical analysis. The conclusion is that pollinosis has obvious seasonality, and the incidence of pollinosis increases with density of pollen. In the practical service, the incidence and fastigium of pollinosis can be forecasted by the change of the pollen density. At the same time the public can get the information by various medias, and the medical worker and the allergic patient of pollen can get the scientific gist to prevent, diagnose, treat the disease. Key words: Pollinosis; Airborne pollen; Relation study; Pollinosis prevention

Corresponding address:
Dr. Yurong Bai Meteorolagical institute of Tianjin No.100 of QiXiangTai Rode of Hexi District of Tianjin 300074 Tianjin China Tel: +86-22-24538695 Fax: +86-22-24538700 Email: yz_liu@sohu.com

112

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Advance in the risk assessment of large public places


Jin Chen 1 Zhifen Chen 1 Chongfu Huang 1 Qiang Li 2
1. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University 2. Institute of Resources Management, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University

Abstract: Because of the high density of people and high centrality of fortune, to reduce and to mitigate the disaster of large public places becomes the key and difficult problem of city disaster reduction and mitigation. And also, the risk research of large public places has given affected to the projects of city disaster reduction and mitigation directly, as well as to building and carrying out of management strategic. This paper generally surveys the present status of risk assessment in large public places, including index system and assessment methods. And also, analyze how important the risk assessment on large public places is. Beside these, this paper points out several problems in risk assessment on large public places. Finally, some suggestions for this research area are put forward.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Jin Chen Institute of disaster and public security, College of resources science and technology, Beijing Normal University No.19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58808179 Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: chenjin@ires.cn

113

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Policy Innovation in the Management of Technology Disasters


Xinmin Wen
College of Management and Economy, Beijing Institute of Technology

Abstract: Usually, the technology disasters are produced by human being, and it would be avoided if it was invested more and more. This is different from the nature disasters. The key of the technology disasters management is completing the technological management system, encouraging the development of technological communities & organizations, spreading the knowledge of science and technology, and constructing the technology supervise group, etc. Also, the policy innovation in the management of technology disasters is needed, so as to reduce the technology disasters damage, and gain a better achievement of the technology disasters management. Key words: The management of technological disasters; The innovation of the policy; The technological system

Corresponding address:
Mr. Xinmin Wen
Beijing Institute of Technology

College of Management and Economy,

No. 5, South Zhongguancun Avenue, Haidian District 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-68470710 Fax: Email: wenxm223@sina.com

114

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Management: Comprehensive and Integrated Model and Chinese Strategy Choice
Jiquan Zhang1, Norio Okada2, Hirokazu Tatano2
1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China; 2. Laboratory of Natural Disaster Risk Management, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, 611-0011, Kyoto, Japan

Abstract: Natural disasters are undeniably increasing due to such factors as urbanization, population growth, destruction of the natural environment, climate change, increase in values in disaster prone regions, Lack of enabling disaster management approaches and so on. Moreover, natural disasters often stem from the most unexpected and highly vulnerable elements of a society, that is, from vulnerabilities that societies tend to overlook. To address the risk that these often misunderstood vulnerabilities, it is essential to conduct comprehensive, holistic and integrated natural disaster risk management in an efficient and effective manner. At present, the integrated natural disaster risk management (INDRM) has become an important strategy and model in contemporary disaster management. It is a comprehensive and integrated approach that embraces all types of natural disasters, all the phases of the disaster management cycle and focus on disaster risks and vulnerabilities, i.e. the underlying conditions of disasters, and emphasizes multi-level, multi-dimensional, multi-disciplinary coordination among stakeholders. This paper introduces the concept and the essentials of the integrated disaster risk management and discusses the rationale and strategies of the integrated disaster management. This paper proposes the implementation strategies for the integrated disaster risk management and suggestions on implementation or the integrated disaster risk management of China. Key words: natural disaster; natural disaster risk; integrated natural disaster risk management; natural disaster risk management strategies

Corresponding address:
Prof. Jiquan Zhang College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, No. 5268 Remin Street,Changchun, 130024 Changchun China Tel: 0431-8505626 Fax: 0431-8505627 Email: zhangjq022@nenu.edu.cn

115

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Design of the Administrative Decision System of Marine Environment Disasters Emergency and Rescue
Xuehui Ren1,2, Yue Wang2, Yue Wang3
1. College of Environment & Technique, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China; 2. College of City & Environment, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China; 3. Disaster and public secure institute, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: The marine disasters (e.g. tsunami, red tide, storm tide) make the marine environments, marine resources and maritime activities to face with tremendous secure hazard, which will cause personal injuries and loss of property. In order to avoiding or mitigating reverse effects that the hazard causes, regarding emergency rescue as the aim of administrative decision, the administrative decision system of marine environment disaster emergency and rescue was set up by GIS and RS in this paper. It elaborates the function of timely dynamic monitoring of RS, collecting the physical attribute data, such as climatic condition, seawater quality, seawater temperature etc.; meanwhile, taking advantage of the superiority of directly special display, dynamic inquiry and analysis decision of GIS, quantitative analyzing data information, then produces reasonable and scientific decision. The system is composed of three subsystems: marine environmental monitoring, marine disaster precaution and marine disaster emergency decision. Operated interface of users in the system was provided by taking mutually pattern of man-machine, integrates such multimedia functions: table, imagine, figure, words etc. It not only reflects marine disaster information from visible angles, but also achieves time-space analysis, disasters monitoring and precaution, emergency rescue decision. Even connecting with the emergency departments in phone number 110,119,120, marine rescue departments share the same information. The emergency rescue network that the system establishes included the departments of civil administration, public security, medical treatment, and maritime affairs and so on, which was beneficial for handling marine disaster accidents fast and exerting rescue after the disasters appeared. The system provided scientific basis for government to make emergency and for rescue administrative to decide about marine environment disaster and maritime accidents. Key words: Marine; Disaster; Emergency and rescue; System

Corresponding address:
Dr. Xuehui Ren City & Environment College , Liaoning Normal University , Dalian City & Environment College , Liaoning Normal University , Dalian , P.R.C. 116029 Dalian China Tel: 86-0411-84206632 Fax: 86-0411-88820031 Email: rxh0202@sohu.com

116

Poster Sessions B
for Young Scientists

The Potential Risk Assessment of Urban Post-Earthquake Fire Based on UGIS Grid
Sijian Zhao1,3, Liya Xiong1, Aizhu Ren2
1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, 100101,Beijing, China; 2. Institute of Engineering Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing ,China; 3. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100039, Beijing, China

Abstract: Post-earthquake fire is a kind of urban disaster with great damage to human being. It often breaks out accompanied with the occurrence of earthquake, and has enormous destructiveness. According to the historical post-earthquake fires, it is well-known that the losses caused by post-earthquake fires are sometimes more than the direct losses caused by earthquake itself. In order to prevent and resist the occurrence of post-earthquake fire, it is very necessary for us to make assessment to the risk of post-earthquake fire on urban regions beforehand, and then take the effective measures to rebuild the assessed dangerous regions. For this purpose, the authors proposed a new potential risk assessment framework of post-earthquake fire for the urban regions. This assessment framework consists of two main components, i.e. ignition risk assessment and fire-spread risk assessment. The former is to assess potential risk of ignition following earthquake, and the later is to assess potential risk of fire-spread after ignition. Through analysis, the key factors related with the risk (ignition and fire-spread) were analyzed and chosen by the authors to construct overall indicator hierarchy. Moreover, the relative weight of indicators at each level was determined by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Additionally, in order to reflect the spatial variance of post-earthquake fire risk, the regular grid replaced street block as basic spatial assessment unit, which avoids the shortcoming that the assessed results from street block are too coarse. Finally, this assessment framework was applied in Xiamen City, an important coastal city of China, and the dangerous regions and periods can be obtained accurately. These assessed results will provide valuable information for the Xiamen Citys planning of seismic prevention and mitigation. Key words: UGIS; Post-earthquake fires; Assessment framework; Indicator; AHP; Grid

Corresponding address:
Mr. Sijian Zhao Data Center of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Resources Research, CAS, 100101 Beijing China Tel: 86-010-64889100 Email: zhaosj@lreis.ac.cn

117

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Research of Risk for Agriculture Drought Based on Chaos Neural Networks
Xiaonan Chen
School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power, Xian University of Technology, Xian 710048, China

Abstract: Based on the idea of adapting function curve with neural networks, this paper establishes the neural networks model for estimating agriculture drought quantitatively and researches the probability distribution of agriculture drought with the artificial neural networks. The model based on this idea can avoid the inconvenience of establishing concrete mathematical formulas and the calculation of parameters and this method can adapt the probability function when the theory distribution of the random variable is unknown. On the choice of training method of networks, this paper combines the chaos algorithm with gradient descending method, which can make networks find the global minimum quickly. Finally this paper calculates probability distribution of the drought extent for agriculture in Qu Cun irrigation area, Pu Yang city, He Nan province, validating the correctness of the model. Key words: drought extent for agriculture; probability distribution; artificial neural networks; chaos algorithm.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Xiaonan Chen School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power, Xian University of Technology, No. 205 Mailbox, Xian University of Technology 710048 Xian China Tel: 13592509151 Email: xyz5451_cn@sina.com

118

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Study on Urban Drought and Water Shortage Risk Assessment and Management Measures in Jilin Province
Dongmei Jin1, Jiquan Zhang1, Junshan Han2
1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; 2. Songliao Water Resources Commission, MWR, Changchun 130021, China

Abstract: It is well- known that water shortage, especially for city seriously affects the social and economic development of city and becomes a world-wide problem. Jilin Province is one of the major provinces with drought and water shortage in Northeast China. Drought and water shortage are characterized by their high frequency, broad range and great loss. Moreover, drought and water shortage have a tendency to occur often, and the extent of the damage on social and economic system have increased recently due to such factors as urbanization, population growth, increasing demand account of water resources with development of economic and the improvement of living environment in cities and climate change. This study presents theory, methodology and management measures for risk analysis and assessment of urban drought and water shortage in Jilin Province, China based on Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the technology of natural disaster risk assessment from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, hydrology, disaster science, and environmental science and so on. The main contents of this study include (1) to built up database on regional drought and water shortage risk management; (2) to analyses balance between supply and demand of regional water resources; (3) to make risk assessment on regional drought and water shortage and design risk maps; (4) to discuss the system and pattern of regional drought and water shortage risk management. This study can be expected to raise public awareness of drought and water shortage risk, improve emergency response capability to drought and water shortage, mitigate the affect and loss caused by them, and to provide solid theories and technological supports for taking comprehensive and active measurements to fight drought in Jilin Province. Key words: urban drought and water shortage; risk assessment; risk management; GIS; Jilin province

Corresponding address:
Prof. Dongmei Jin College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Northeast Normal University Changchun 130024, China E-mail: jdongm@sohu.com

119

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Land use and its Impact on Flood and Drought Disaster of Geographic Transect from Shenzhen to Bayahaote in China
Pu Qiu Juan Du Peijun Shi
Key laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, The Ministry of Education of China, College of Resources Science and TechnologyBeijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract: Based on the flood and drought disasters database from 1990 to 2000 and the land use data of 1995 and 2000 in the Shenzhen-Bayanhaote transect, this paper analyzes the regional disparity of flood and drought disasters and the relation with spatio-temporal pattern of land use in the transect. The results indicate that: (1)the landuse changes were evidently affected by rapid urbanization, adjustments in industry structure and policy drivers. The percentage of farmland has decreased from 34.2% to 17.26% while The urban land has expanded from 0.09% in 1995 to 0.28% in 2000 ,and the bare land has increased from 7.57% to 18.18% in the same period. (2The flood and drought disasters in the south are obviously different from those in the north of the transect. Drought disasters mainly take place in the north, while flood disasters mainly in the south. (3) Landuse structure has a strong influence on the flood and drought disasters in the transect. There is higher incident rate of the flood and drought disasters in the counties where the land use types are complex, but the counties where the land use type is single are weakly affected by flood and drought disasters. Flood disasters mainly take place in south counties of the transect where the land use types are various and farraginous, especially in the area which has a high ratio of urban land, flood disasters occur more frequently. Drought disasters have high incident rate in areas that are lack of water and mainly are farmland and meadow. Key words Shenzhen-Bayanhaote; geographic transect; land use pattern; flood and drought disasters

Corresponding address:
Mr. Qiu Pu Institute of disaster and public security, College of resources science and technology, Beijing Normal University No.19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58808179 Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: puqiu@ires.cn

120

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Flood Resilience Research of Dongting Lake in Hunan Province of China


Jing Liu1,2, Yi Ge1,2, Jing Chen1,2
1. College of Resouces science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: Since the 1970s the concept of resilience has been used in a metaphorical sense to describe ecosystems that undergo stress and have the ability to recover and return to their original state. This concept is now a common study object in a great variety of interdisciplinary work concerned with the interactions between people and nature, including ecology, disaster and environment change. UN/ISDR also pointed out that resilience is seen as a desirable property of natural and human systems, which is a useful concept for sustainable development and vulnerability reduction. So resilience has become an important part of disaster mitigation. The resilience measurements and assessment research is now a newly hot spot in disaster risk management and assessment fields. Chinas Dongting Lake is one of the most serious flood areas in China. This huge lake in Central China, which is fed by five rivers including the great Yangste, experiences flooding every year. This flooding can be catastrophic, as in 1998, when more than 600 people lost their lives and over 4 billion USD of crops were destroyed. The Chinese government has recently taken important non-structural measures to reduce these losses, including converting exposed farmland into a flood reservoir and reforesting large areas of cropland upstream. Still, severe flooding can be expected, and the government is interested in increasing the coping capacity of the region. So its necessary to do further research in the disaster resilience for reducing the flooding losses and helping the local to recover quickly and efficiently after the catastrophe. Based on the existing flood risk and vulnerability research in Chinas Dongting Lake, this paper chooses this flood area as study area to do further research in flood disaster resilience, and mainly focuses on how to measure flood resilience and how to improve the local resilience from two different levels: family level and county level. And we find out that flood resilience is a comprehensive social-economic variability, which is highly correlated with land use patterns, the economic level and education level. Then its important to optimize the land use structure, increase the local peoples incomes and develop education to improve flood resilience. Key words: resilience; flood; dongting lake

Corresponding address:
Ms. Jing Liu College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal Universtiy No.19 Xinjiekouwai Street Beijing, China 100875 Beijing China Tel: 86-10-58808179 Fax: 86-10-58802158 Email: lj@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Flood Risk Assessment and Emergency Management in Metropolises of China*


Jue Wang1, Wendong Nie2, Jingai Wang2,3*
1 College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China; 3 School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: The National Emergency Management Workshop in June 2005 is a milestone of emergency management of public safety issues in China, which has made natural disaster risk emergency management become a national demand. On the basis of understanding in both disaster system theory and classic theoretical models of risk assessment, this paper has put forward a simplified flood risk assessment model by combining hazard risk assessment and potential vulnerability assessment. And the flood risks of 9 metropolises in China were calculated and studied on different scales. The result indicated that, the spatial pattern of flood risk shaped a circle-liked structure and the risk index dropped gradually from the center of Metropolitan Regions to the outer edge zone. Flood risks of Metropolises in the south are significantly higher than those in the north. Ranked by flood risk from high to low, Metropolises respectively referred to Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Middle Reach of Yangtze River, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangsan, Jilin-Heilongjiang, China North Plain, Chengdu-Chongqing, Central Section of Liaoning and Shangdong Peninsula. Based on the flood risk analysis above, relevant energy management system was put forward as a safety protection strategy for flood alleviation in these areas. According to the flood risk analysis above, relevant energy management system was put forward as a safety protection strategy for flood alleviation in these areas. It was suggested detection-forecasting-warning, emergency protocol compiling, and regionalization-planning should be contained in the system. Key words: Metropolis ; Metropolitan Area ; Flood risk ; Emergency response

Corresponding address:
Ms. Jue Wang Insitute of Economics and Resources management; College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University No. 19 Out of Xinjiekou Avenue, HaiDian District 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-87446176 Email: wangjue@ires.cn

* Financially Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) International Cooperation Project: Study on flood integrated risk assessment model and flood reduction strategy in Dongting Lake region of China Author for corresponding: sqq@bnu.edu.cn 122

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

GIS-Based Validation of Flood Inundation Model


Peiguo Song1, Ning Li1, Xuehui Ren2
1. Disaster and public secure institute, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. College of Urban and Environment, Liaoning Normal University, Daliao 116029, China

Abstract: Flood is one of the natural disasters that affect China most frequently and cause huge socio-economic losses annually. The losses caused by the flood depend mainly on the range of the inundated area, so how to get the accurate information of the inundated area is vital to the flood risk assessment and disaster mitigation. With the development of computer science and Geographical Information System, many computer simulation models have been developed to predict the potential inundated area caused by a given magnitude flood event along the river system within a floodplain area, so it has had many applications in practice. The Swiss Reassurance Company has developed a such flood inundation model as a flood risk assessment tool to estimate the possible inundated area caused by flood disaster, as well as offer effective insurance decision-making support. However, because of the distinction of different floodplain areas, a validation process of the model must be taken first. It is an important step in the practical applications to verify that the simulation model is acceptable for its intended use because it meets specified performance requirements. Model validation may involve consideration of evidence used to derive a model, comparison of the model with alternatives, and a comparison between model predictions and independent observation of the predicated qualities or qualities, or a comparison of model predictions and the available historical statistical data .With the help of GIS tools, the model validation is carried out based on the 1998 data of Dongting Lake area in Hunan province, China. This area is one of the severest areas that subjects to flood disaster in China. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the validation method and procedures to validate the flood inundation model, besides, the methodological framework and theory for the validation of the computer simulation model are also covered in this paper. Key words: validation; flood inundation model; simulation; GIS

Corresponding address:
Mr. Peiguo Song Grade 2004 Master Candidate, Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology Beijin Normal University No. 19, Out of Xiejiekou Avenue 100875 Beijng China Tel: +86-10-58804650 Email: gisboy@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Study on Hydrologic Simulation of Qingjianhe River Basin in the Middle Yellow River
Guoqing Wang1,2
1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 200098, China 2. Yellow River Conservancy Commision, Zhengzhou 450003, China

Abstract: Structure and principle of the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model were introduced, and the model was used to simulate discharge of Qingjianhe River basin. The results show that SIMHYD model has good simulation result for monthly discharge, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients are larger than65%, meanwhile, relative errors are less than 5%. But the model can not simulate daily discharge well. Therefore, the model can be used to analyze runoff variation laws in a larger time scale. Key words: SIMHYD rainfall runoff model; Qingjianhe River Basin; Discharge simulation

Corresponding address:
Mr. Guoqing Wang Yellow River institute of hydraulic research, 45 Shunhe road 450003 Zhengzhou China Tel: +86-371-66024537 Fax: Email: gqwang0258@yahoo.com.cn

124

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Diagnosis Based on Farmhouse Drought Disastrous Risk and Sustainable Development


Zhiqiang Wang1,2, Chunyan Yang3, Jingai Wang1,2, Yanrui Shang4, Hongfeng Lv1,2
1. College of Geography & Remote Sensing, BNU, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, BNU, Beijing 100875, China; 3. Beijing Normal University Library, BNU, Beijing 100875, China; 4. College of Resource and Environment, HNU, Shijiazhuang 050016, China)

Abstract: This paper collects the information of the loss of drought disaster from 1990~2003 and compiles the map of drought disaster risk with the GIS technology. The author takes Xingtai as the irrigated agriculture drought typical county and Xinghe as the rained agriculture drought typical county as the model region, because the drought disaster hazards risk of Xingtai and Xinghe is over 30%. This paper brings forward the systematic-process evaluation method diagnosing the agriculture drought disastrous risk on the farmhouse scale and sets up the diagnosis index and the model system of the agriculture drought disastrous risk. Based on the data of the farmhouse spot check, this paper appraises the agriculture drought disastrous risk of the model region on the farmhouse scale. The result shows: 1) the relation between the drought disastrous risk value and the net per capita annual income of the farmhouse is inverse correlation. The net per capita annual income of RMB 2500 of Xinghe and 2750 of Xingtai becomes the threshold of the drought disastrous risk value; 2) From the view of the physiognomy unit, the better natural environment, social location and agriculture environment is, the lower the agriculture drought disastrous risk is; 3) For Xinghe, The farmhouse with the per capita annual grain less 200kg drops farming and concentrates on the non-farming industry, the disastrous risk also descends. For Xingtai, the relation between the drought disastrous risk value and the per capita annual grain of the farmhouse is inverse correlation; 4) The countermeasure of the rained agriculture sustainable development to descend the farmhouse drought disastrous risk is mainly the fluctuating farming-pastoral policy, which means developing the non-farming industry and enlarging the insemination area of the species of potato; The countermeasure of the irrigated agriculture sustainable development to descend the farmhouse drought disastrous risk is mainly increasing the rainfall utilization efficiency and enhancing the non-farming earning and so on. Through the study of the agriculture drought disastrous risk and the regional sustainable development, some reference evidences on the regional disaster prevention and mitigation and the sustainable development are provided. Key words: agriculture drought; farmhouse; disastrous risk; sustainable development

Corresponding address:
Mr. Zhi-qiang WANG College of Geography & Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58807454-1638 Fax: +86-10-58807454-1632 Email: wzqbnu@163.com

125

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

The Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process to the Study of Dust Storm Risk Assessment
Zixuan Du, Ning Li
Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: Dust storm is the synthesize result of the action of atmospheric motion and physical geographic environment. Dust storms formation depends on the interaction between atmosphere and sandiness surface, which are different physics medium in their density. So wind power and the characters of land surface are the main factors that affect the intensity and harm degree of dust storm. In this paper, the risk degree of dust storm in different regions with different land surface conditions is researched from the point of view of land surface in the Midwest region of Inner Mongolia, China. This paper presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method for dust storm risk assessment. The AHP method can synthesize the qualitative and quantitative factors together. We get the weight of the physiognomy, wind speed, soil moisture and soil hardness by using the AHP method, and the respective weight is: 0.129, 0.499, 0.249 and 0.123. It shows that wind speed and soil moisture have much contributions to the occurrence of dust storm, especially the wind speed. At the same time, we calculate the weight of land surface factors contributions to the occurrence of dust storm in different regions. The result shows the weight in different regions is Erlianhaote>Wuhai>Wulatezhongqi>Huhehaote, and the respective weight is 0.4559, 0.2525, 0.2116 and 0.0805. According to the weight of land surface factors in different regions, overlaying the physiognomy map and soil map, we get the corresponding risk assessment map of dust storm. Key words: dust storm; land surface; risk degree; weight; risk assessment

Corresponding address:
Ms. Zixuan Du Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-86377864 Email: cyclonexz@ires.cn

126

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Preliminary Research on Warning System of Snow Disaster in Pastureland of China: Taking Xilingol League as an Example
Huijuan Yang, Ning Li
Institute of disaster and public security, College of resources science and technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: In winter, heavy snows often attack the north of China, where most is pastureland. When the thickness of snow comes to an extent to which livestock cant catch grass, especial with wind, snow disaster tends to occur. In Xilingol League, the snow disaster influences livestock and local people heavily. Especially with wind, the situation would be worse. Although improving the condition of feeding is an effective way to avoid the disadvantage of heavy snow and wind, the social and economic situation cant afford good enough feeding condition. So its essential to study on this problem to find some solutions in order to mitigate as much as possible. Exposure is mainly determined by snowfall, also is influenced by many other factors. Especially in the last few years, human activities contribute much to the adaptation, vulnerability and resistance. There are many researches done about snow disaster. Some standards for degrees of snow disaster have been provided based on experience through long time. But there is no consensus about these, and most of them are somewhat simple. In fact, most of these standards emphasize on assessment of snow disaster, especial on large scale. Expert system was selected to establish a warning system mainly based on short-term meteorological condition for its advantages of fuzzy inference. The system was made up of knowledge base, database, inference engine, knowledge acquisition and interpreter. Several meteorological factors and the height of grass when winter comes were selected in the system. When a snowfall attacks the research area, inputting these indices into the database, using the rules in the knowledge base, inference engine will conclude whether snow disaster occurs, and a possible exposure also would be provided, a reasonable solution would be suggested. The system was comprehensive. Emphasizing particularly on short term as a period of ten days and month, it contained long term as year. Besides, it analyzed on days in extreme condition. Meteorological factors were considered, at the same time the situation of the pastureland and the condition of feeding were taken into account. Key words: snow disaster; expert system

Corresponding address:
Ms. Huijuan Yang Institute of disaster and public security, College of resources science and technology, Beijing Normal University No.19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875 Beijing China Email: yanghuijuan@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Regional Disasters Responses of El Nino


Laiyin Zhu1,2, Wei Gu1, Jingai Wang2
1. Institute of Resources Technology and Engineering, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; 2. Environmental Changes and Natural Disaster Open Research Laboratory, National Education Commission; Department of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;

Abstract: The phenomenon of El Nino is a large scale synthetic ocean-atmosphere action, which happened unpredictably. Meanwhile El Nino is an important reason for disasters happened in many regions of the world, so risks exist in those regions when they respond to El Nino. We can predict where and when what kind of disasters will happen if we can determine the regional responding relationships between El Nino events and regional disasters by using information about El Nino phenomenon. Our target is to reduce disaster risks and minimize the impact of disasters. By collecting large quantity of case information about regional disasters caused by El Nino in recent 200 years, this paper has built a case database about El Nino and set up El Ninos regional natural disaster responses by the method of map compilation. According to statistics, 50 El Nino events happened in recent 200 years, which include 14 times of very strong events, 22 strong ones, 9 moderate ones and 5 weak ones. We can see that disasters caused by El Nino are mainly located in North America, South America, Asia and Pacific regions influenced by monsoons, Eastern Africa, and some seas near these regions. North America and Asia have the most kinds of disasters total to 5 kinds. South America and Oceania both have 3 kinds, and Africa has 1 kind. Although various disasters happened, their regional distribution has a relatively apparent pattern. Drought, Forest fires, bio-disasters and oceanic disasters happened in the U.S and Mexico in North America. Asia and Pacific regions had droughts and agricultural disasters led by it, Australia and Indonesia had severe forest fires. Eastern Africa had serious floods and diseases. In sea area near California-Bay in the U.S, exceptional cyclones and sudden death of marine organisms in large number are found to be greatly connected to El Nino phenomenon. At the same time, China located in Eastern-Asia Monsoon area has been greatly influenced by El Nino. North Eastern China was impacted by droughts and frozen climates, which lead to forest fires in Daxinganling and reduction in produces in North Eastern China Plain. Drought in Central China resulted in breakout of pests and reduction in produces. From the case analysis of the whole article, we can draw the conclusion that the natural-disaster risks existing in El Nino Events have regional differences, but some rules can be found in those risks. The natural-disaster risks caused by El Nino shouldnt be ignored in the evaluation of regional natural-disaster risks. Key words: El Nino; regional disaster; regional respond; risk

Corresponding address:
Mr. Laiyin Zhu Institute of Resources Technology and Engineering, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University Xinjiekouwai Street NO. 19 Beijing, 100875, China Tel: +86-10-58804650 Email: bnurhein@ires.cn

128

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Research on The Contribution of Coastal Dyke to Reducing the Loss Caused by Storm Surge
Xiaofeng Duan, Xuegong Xu
College of Environment, Peking University & The Main Lab of Ministry of Education Research on Analysis and Simulation of The Earths Surface Process, Peking 100871, China

Abstract: Storm surge is one of the most serious marine hazards. Coastal dyke plays an important role in protection against storm surge. This paper showed how to quantify the contribution by coastal dyke to reduce the loss caused by storm surge. Giving the 9711 typhoon storm surge in the Yellow River Delta as an example, using the technic of Geographic Information System, through simulating the submerged area and calculating the simulated economic loss on the assumption that there were no dyke, we found that the decrease on the loss of 9711 storm surge contributed by coastal dyke is large comparing to real statistic loss. Based on cost-benefit analysis, the results indicated that it was necessary and reasonable to build coastal dyke in order to protecting against storm surge. Key words: the Yellow River delta; storm surge; coastal dyke; effect of the decrease on the loss

Corresponding address:
Mr. Xiaofeng Duan College of Environment, Peking University and The Main Lab of Ministry of Education Research on Analysis and Simulation of The Earths Surface Process College of Environment, Peking University 100871 Beijing China Tel: 86-10-62767240 Email: duan_1997@sohu.com

129

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Analysis on the Changes of Integrated Risk of Ocean Disasters in China since 1990s
Tao Ye, Peijun Shi, Weiping Guo
Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: Ocean makes great contribution to the human beings. Ocean economy is one of the most important parts of a countrys economic system. Meanwhile, costal zone are always regions with high human activity intensity and high economic density. However, such regions are at the risk of a series of ocean disasters, including tropical cyclone, storm tide, disastrous surf, red tide, sea ice as well as tsunami, which is threatening ocean economy and costal development. This paper analyzed the official materials about ocean disasters of China since 1990s. The statistical result shows that, the number of death and misses decrease slowly while economic loss changes little. Within the ocean disasters mentioned above, storm tide did the most structure damage and economic loss, disastrous surf lead to most sinkage and death, and red tide happened most frequently and its frequency and area have been increasing dramatically. These results indicate that the increase of maritime affairs recent years rises the exposure to ocean disasters, while the integrated disaster mitigation ability could not follow the steps of economy development. Based on these analysis, the authors believes that ocean disaster integrated risk management of China should pay attention to following aspects: (1) study on the community integrated disaster mitigation paradigm of costal zone; (2) enhance the development of ocean disaster forecast and ocean disaster warning system; (3) conduct national investigation of ocean disaster mitigation resources. Key words: ocean disaster; spatial-temporal pattern; China

Corresponding address:
Mr.Tao Ye Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology Beijin Normal University No. 19, Out of Xiejiekou Avenue 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58802158 Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: yetao@ires.cn

130

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Research of the Effect of Different Arrangements of Refuge Floors in High-rise Buildings in Fire Situations
Min Liu, Siuming Lo, Waiming Lee, Laikuen Cheung
Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong

Abstract: In the recent decade, ultra high-rise buildings have been erected throughout the world, especially in densely populated Hong Kong and many large cities in Asia. But the codes of fire safety in high-rise buildings havent updated accordingly. This means the fire safety system cannot provide a satisfactory safety level of such high-rise buildings. It is necessary to provide an emergency evacuation route for occupants in each high-rise building. During the fire accident or other emergency situation, it is useful for occupants to escape out of the building with the minimum time. Traditionally, many factors would affect the time of escape, such as width of exits, corridors and staircases. Apart from these factors, the Hong Kong Government has stipulated in the Code of Practice on Means of Escape that designated refuge floors should be provided in some of these buildings. In the code, a refuge floor is considered as a part of the exit route in buildings. It acts as a temporary safe place for evacuees under fire situations. It should be provided in all buildings exceeding 25 stories at intervals of 20 stories and 25 stories. Previous studies have less research on the locations, arrangements and intervals of refuge floor of high-rise buildings. We can only use the method of computer simulation to explore how different arrangement of refuge floors can affect the evacuation time of occupants in fire situations. The reason is that it is very dangerous to do the real experiment and fire drills are not easy to be held in high-rise buildings. The runtime of the simulation and data input of coarse network are less than the fine network. But the results can also reflect the effect of different arrangement of refuge floors. Thus we decided to use the method of coarse network for simulation. In this paper, we intended to develop a model based on the coarse link network to simulate evacuation time for normal people in high-rise buildings with different arrangements of refuge floor. After simulation, we found that the refuge floor should be placed in the floor near the middle part of buildings with the possible minimum evacuation time and the maximum use of the refuge floors. Key words: fire safety; evacuation; refuge floors

Corresponding address:
Ms. Min Liu Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong China Tel: 852-2194 2387 Fax: 852-2754 4655 Email: leonaliu@cityu.edu.hk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Investigation of Pre-Evacuation Human Behavior Under Fire Situations Based on 2000-2002 Newspaper Reports on Fire Occurrences in Hong Kong
Chunmei Zhao, Siuming Lo, Kwokkit Yuen, Hechao Huang
Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (SAR), PRC

Abstract: Safe evacuation of occupants in a building during emergencies have aroused more and more concerns for architects, building designers, building control officers, building managers, insurers, as well as the occupants themselves. Recent studies have revealed that the pre-evacuation psychological reaction of the people may have great influence on the evacuation pattern. In Hong Kong, over 90% of people are living in multi-storey multi-ownership residential buildings. Their awareness and response to fire incident at other flat of the same building should be an important issue affecting the evacuation process. The aim of the study was to gather and analyze data on various number of fire incident reports in Hong Kong from five major newspapers during year 2000 to 2002. In order to avoid incomplete and imprecise description with the fact, comparison of data from different newspaper is required and data verification is an important step for getting the credible fire statistics. There were totally 636 cases of fires including residential building, industrial area, commercial area and other types of occupancy. The investigation focused on how environmental variables, such as flame or smoke cue, type of occupancy, risk sources and so on, lead to different human behavior in fire situations. A multinomial logit regression approach was adopted to predict the likelihood of pre-evacuation human response in fire. According to the historical information, it can be estimated whether occupants would evacuate from fire or fight with fire or both when fire occurs at the similar building. Furthermore, such approach can also provide valuable information for fire safety training and fire protection measures both in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the world. Key words: human behavior; fire safety; pre-evacuation; multinomial logit regression

Corresponding address:
Ms. Chunmei Zhao Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), China Tel: 00852-27887354 Fax: 00852-27844655 Email: Zhao.CM@student.cityu.edu.hk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Study on Surface Collapse and Cure Strategy in Enkou Mining Area


Xuandong Li, Bai Lu, Xiuzhen Chen
Institute of Resource and Safety Engineering, Beijing Campus, China University of Mining &Technology, Beijing 100083, China

Abstract: Based on the abundant field data and the comprehensive analysis the problems of surface collapse in Enkou mining area ,Hunan province, the hydrogeological conditions,characteristics of karst development and the collapse distribution regularities in the mining area are studied and the causes for the collapse discussed. The comprehensive measures are proposed , including construct stations for surface collapse settlement observationirrigation concrete and reclamation of land. Key words: Enkou mining area; surface collapse; distribution regularities; prevention and cure strategy

Corresponding address:
Mr. Xuandong Li China University of Mining Technology(Beijing) Ding 11 Xueyuan Road Haidian District Beijing, University of Mining Technology(Beijing) 100083 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-86642775 Fax: +86-10-82020854 Email: lxdkbs@163.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Fuzzy Risk Based Risk Analysis of SARS


Shuqing Huang, Ning Li, Zhifen Chen
Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;

Abstract: In 2003, the disaster of SARS made the whole world fall into panic. China suffered the most serious stroke. After this disaster, a lot of researches about the infection process and forecast have been made, but few of them were studied according to risk analysis. For common infectious disease, we have known enough information about their process and infection. So the certain probabilistic risk of them can be calculated by using epidemic models and statistical models, which are proved time after time. But facing to a strange infectious disease with more uncertainty, there is not enough time to collect enough information for calculate probabilistic risk in traditional method. Accordingly, under this completeness information condition, we introducing the concept of fuzzy risk, and using incomplete information optimize processing which based on the information diffusion theory, base on public data of different phase of SARS infection, to analyze the fuzzy risk of each phase. Results show that using incomplete information optimize processing evidently improve the precision and accuracy of risk analysis, and give more practical result. Finally, we calculate a premium of SARS insurance and comparing it with the real insurance premium. The comparing shows that the real insurance premium is lower. This is mostly because of social reason, such as the governmental policy and social duty of national insurance companies. Key words: SARS; fuzzy risk; risk analysis; insurance premium

Corresponding address:
Mr. Shuqing Huang Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University 100875 Beijing China Tel: +861086374847 Email: qing@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

A Multi-objective Decision-Making Model for Evacuation Planning


Hechao Huang, Siuming Lo, Peng Lin, Chunmei Zhao
Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (SAR), PRC

Abstract: Evacuation of people from the hazardous region(s) is per se a way to reduce the ill effects of disasters. The goal of evacuation planning is to maximize the performance of the emergency management system which is responsible for evacuating the residents in the threatened areas. The focus of this paper is on the development of a method to determine the appropriate management operations of evacuation planning. We extend the classical evacuation models that set only one target, namely the clearance time. It is found that even if the total travel time is minimized, the migrating system may not be optimum because the congestion problem, the waiting time and the transportation network reliability are also the decision criterions. Generally, these targets conflict each other. Our multi-objective optimization model is based on analysis of the transportation network. Three objectives are used to represent the overall performance of the evacuation system. They are total evacuation time, average efficiency index and network robustness under disaster. The decision variables include two categories: traffic control actions and the schedule of escape from different zones. In this model, we only consider the simplest human behavior under disaster: always choosing the shortest path to the safe places. The model can serve as a tool to devise efficient evacuation plans in advance. Key words: evacuation planning; multi-objective optimization; decision-making

Corresponding address:
Mr. Hechao Huang Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong China Tel: 852-27844317 Fax: 852-27844655 Email: H.C.Huang@student.cityu.edu.hk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Optimization of Urban Evacuation Plan


Peng Lin, Hechao Huang, Siuming Lo, Kwokkit Yuen
Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (SAR), PRC

Abstract: Modern city is vulnerable to the increasing threatens, e.g., natural disasters, industrial accidents as well as terrorist attacks. The provision of evacuation planning for densely populated urban area is necessary to cope with these unexpected threatens. But how to program an effective evacuation planning is still a great challenge for engineers and researchers due to the complexity of problems involved. Different types of systems, such as buildings, cities or regions, or transportation carriers (e.g. trains, ships and airplanes). The system structures (e.g. population and the behavior of people at risk, hazard propagation speed and characteristics) essentially influence the optimal planning in the corresponding system. A Time-varying quickest flow problem (TVQFP) is presented to optimize the evacuation planning of a city. TVQFP is much different from its prototype problem: quickest flow problem in that all of parameters, associated with network, such as travel time, capacity, etc, are time dependent. These time-varying features make TVQFP particularly suitable for evacuation planning as through capacity of roads or intersections may decrease or totally be blocked due to the effects of adverse environments such as fires, floods, or lethal gas. Dynamic network can reflect theses time-varying features and optimize the whole evacuation process in a system optimum. Three important factors involved in city evacuation, .i.e., shelters selection, routes selection and schedule selection, are optimized simultaneously in time-varying dynamic network flow. This model is further embedded into GIS environment to exhibit results in a vivid picture and also to provide an easy-to-use interface for our further analysis and evaluation. Key words: urban evacuation; dynamic network; time-varying quickest flow problem; schedule evacuation.

Corresponding address:
Dr. Peng Lin Fire Safety and Disaster Prevention Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), PRC Hong Kong China Tel: 00852-21942161 Fax: 00852-27844655 Email: 50004690@student.cityu.edu.hk

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Study on Integrated Agricultural Rrisk Management in China


Guomin Zhang, Zhifen Chen, Peijun Shi, Chongfu Huang
Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: When engaging in growing and breeding, agricultural producers may encounter some impacts and harmfulness which come from the uncertainly factors of nature, society, economy, techniques and so on. This possibility in impacts and harmfulness is called agricultural risk. How to management agricultural risks synthetically affects developing countries agricultural producing directly. As a developing country, China has its agricultural producing been in facing on many risks and hazards from almost every aspect. This paper first analyses the agricultural situation in China. Then, on the basis of this analysis, we classify the agricultural risks in Chinas own way and put forward an integrated agricultural risks management pattern. According to the difference of Chinese agricultural risk sources, we classify agricultural risks in five kinds as follows: natural disaster risks, invasive species risks, technique risks, market risks and social risks. The integrated agricultural risks management pattern is made of seven blocks. They are namely: agricultural risks identification, agricultural hazard risk analysis, agricultural risks scenario analysis, agricultural risks loss analysis, model evaluation, agricultural reduction benefits evaluation and building an integrated agricultural risks assessment system. Key words: integrated agricultural risks; risk analysis; risk assessment

Corresponding address:
Mr. Guomin Zhang Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street 100875 Beijing China Tel: 86-10-58808179 Fax: 86-10-58802158 Email: zgm@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Regional Ecological Function Land Management Case Study in Beijing, China


Jing Chen, Peijun Shi, Chunyang He, Jing Liu
Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract: No single approach to bringing sustainable hazards mitigation into existence shows more promise at this time than increased use of sound and equitable land-use management. So land use management should be incorporated into the integrated disaster management system. This paper pays special attention to the ecological function land, which is essential to ensure the security of life-supporting system.In the case study in Beijing, China, ecological function lands are put forward, which are of great importance to the health of ecosystems and for the maintenance of the quality of the environment, and should be protected absolutely. By the integration of remote sensing data, socioeconomic data, field survey results and GIS database, the actual and potential human disturbance degree for each land pixel is estimated. After that the key zones for the maintenance for ecological security which are most prone to be disturbed by human activities and need regularly monitoring are identified. The results of this multi-disciplinary case study could be directly applied at the local level. It will certainly facilitate the disaster risk management. Key words: integrated disaster risk management; policy-relevant research; ecological function land; ecological security

Corresponding address:
Ms. Jing Chen Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street 100875 Beijing China Tel: 86-10-58808179 Fax: 86-10-58802158 Email: J_ch@263.net

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Integrated Disaster Risk Management and New Public Management Theories


Zhibin You
Institute of International Strategy studies, The Party School of Central Committee of CPC, Beijing 100091, China

Abstract: After the Cold War, the shadow of traditional security threats in the form of armed conflict or military warfare has been fading out. However, a number of various non-traditional security threats have started to fill the blank, especially the man-made disaster caused by sub-state actors and natural hazard caused by the nature. These two are in the spotlight of the public attention and have become a great challenge to the governance. After the unprecedented catastrophic terrorist attack of 11 September 2001, a challenge for development has highlighted governance as a key unresolved issue in both the configuration as well as the reduction of disaster risk. To strengthen the capability of disaster risk management has received the highest ever concern and policy response as well. Thus, the need to further strengthen institutional and policy systems for disaster risk management remains as topical and needed as ever, if lasting and profound improvements are to be achieved in reducing the level of disaster risk in the world. Recently, strategic management and issue management are newly subjects in the public management theories. Public organization, effected by the business strategic planning, has gradually stressed on the strategic planning and strategic management, and emphasized its long-term strategic implementation and issue analysis. The core of strategic management and issue management, the management modes, except major stressed functions of traditional managing processes including planning, organization, leading and controlling, more emphasize on responding to changing environment with strategy in advance, which will not only aid the future development of organization, but also promote to achieve its goal and take preemptive steps. Undoubtedly, the disaster risk management is an open system where maintains mutual response with external environment. Therefore, the integrated disaster risk management should closely keep an eye out for changing external environment and the effects caused by these changes, then adjust its own role position, value and goal, and implement a series of strategies and issue management to achieve its mission efficiently. Key words: strategic management; issue management; integrated disaster risk management

Corresponding address:
Mr. Zhibin YOU Institute of International Strategy (CCPS) P. O. 1967, No. 100 Dayouzhuang Road Haidian District 100091 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-62874217 Email: budblooming@tom.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Analysis of Human Effects on Steppe Degradation Based on Temporal NDVI Database in Xilin gole, Inner Mongolia, China
Zhihui Gu1, Xin Cao1, Jin Chen1, Jin Liu2, Peijun Shi1
1. Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, College of Resource Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. Bureau of Science and Technology, Xinlinguole, Inner Mongolia, Xilinhaote 026000, China

Abstract: Grassland Degradation in arid and semi-arid steppe, which always results from integrated impact of nature and human factors, is one of the most important ecological and economic issues in China. It is necessary to discriminate the natural and human-induced degradation for rehabilitation and reconstruction of degraded steppe regions. Based on the existing researches, we proposed a method that integrates regression analysis and residual analysis to discriminate human-induced degradation areas. Furthermore, we applied the method in case study area of Xilin gole Steppe in Inner Mongolia, China, by using Pathfinder NOAA/AVHRR NDVI data from 1983 to 1999 and the meteorological data within the same period. In detail, firstly, we constructed the regression model of first 6 years (1983~1988) for each pixel between annual maximal NDVI and meteorological data (precipitation and temperature), considering time lag of precipitation. Secondly, the differences (residuals) of actual and predicted maximal NDVI were derived for latter 11 years (1989~1999). After analyzed the residuals change trend, the pixels with negative trend were regarded as the human-induced degradation regions according to the first stage. The results show that Xilin gole Steppe experienced human-induced degradation during 1989~1999 with larger area and heavier degree. The results are accordant to the status quo in study area. Key words: steppe degradation; human-induced; Xilin gole; NOAA/AVHRR NDVI; precipitation; temperature; regress analysis; residual

Corresponding address:
Ms. Zhihui Gu Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street 100875 Beijing China Tel: 86-10-58808179 Fax: 86-10-58802158 Email: gzh@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Matrix Pattern to Stage Serving for Integrated Risk Management of City Disaster
Ye Xue 1,2Chongfu Huang 1, Jian Zhou 1, Fuping Yang 1
1. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, 2. College of Science, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, Shanxi

Abstract: With the development of economy and science & technology at top speed, the processing of urbanization has entered into the accelerated period, and then, risk confronted with by cities is more and more larger, therefore, integrated risk management of city disaster become more and more important. Risk of city disaster has notable characteristics of various kinds, complexity, high uncertainty, striking integration. In succession, risk types of city disaster are summed up 11 kinds. Therefore, whether immediate cause or remote cause, matrix pattern to stage serving for integrated risk management of city disaster need to be founded. Risk integrated management of city disaster based on integrated evaluation of city disaster risk. And then, the framework system of general evaluation for disaster risk in city is devised according to its types. It is made of thirteen evaluated systems which possesses its own subsystem. Matrix pattern to stage serving for integrated risk management of city disaster is put forward on the above basis of integrated evaluation. It includes three stages: front of disaster, middle of disaster, back of disaster, and each link make use of matrix management in each segment. Its processing is an unceasing cycle perfection of matrix management before disaster, matrix management during disaster and matrix management after disaster. At last, on the one hand, matrix pattern to stage serving for integrated risk management of city disaster is compared with existed models: Caters circular model and Okadas tower model. On the other hand, an example is given for illustrating its benefits. In a word, Matrix pattern to stage serving for integrated risk management of city disaster is reasonable and efficient. Key words: city; disaster risk; integrated management; integral evaluation; matrix pattern to stage

Corresponding address:
Ms. Ye Xue Institute of disaster and public security, College of resources science and technology, Beijing Normal University No.19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875 Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email: jdjyxy@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

the Risk Analysis of Motorcycle Drivers of the Traffic Accident Rate in Hekou county Yunnan Province
Jinfeng Li, Mingke Liu, Chongfu Huang, Yuyu Tang
Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education of China, College of Resource Sciences and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Abstract: The increasing traffic accident rate in Hekou county Yunnan Province has caught much attention of the local government. There are several factors contributing to the high accident rate such as the driver, the vehicle and the environment, especially the motorcycles. One reason for that is the increased number of motorcycles and the other is lack of rigorous management of motorcycle drivers. The risk of causing accidents varies among drivers at different ages. According to Fuzzy Zone Information Matrix analysis of traffic accident information in these three years, we arrive at a conclusion that the drivers of the age between 26 and 30 are in the highest risk .Therefore, the local government should strengthen the management of motorcycle drivers at that age group. Key words: traffic accident; information matrix; risk

Corresponding address:
Ms. Jinfeng Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street 100875 Beijing China Tel: Fax: Email: linglee@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Modeling the Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in Shenzhen, China
Jing Zheng1, 2, Pei-Jun Shi1, 2, Yi Yuan1, 3
1. The Key Lab of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China 2. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875China 3. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, Beijing 100053, China

Abstract: Land Use/Land Cover Change in urbanization process has profound impacts on regional hydrological system. Shenzhen, located at the south of Guangdong Province and neighboring to Hong Kong, has been undergoing urbanization process at an unprecedented speed since its establishment as a Special Economic Zone in 1980. While the land use and land cover in this region has been changing dramatically due to urbanization, the hydrological consequences are still unknown. By integrating Remote Sensing science, Geographic Information System technology and hydrological model, the impact of land use/land cover change on surface runoff in this region is studied. Four Remote Sensing images at different stages of urbanization in Shenzhen are used to acquire land use and land cover information, which is then used for mapping land use/land cover change and calculating parameter for the Soil Conservation Service model. Change of surface runoff is then simulated using the SCS model in a GIS environment. After that, spatial analysis is carried out to find out the impact of land use/land cover change on surface runoff in urbanization process. The result shows highly variety and complexity of the impact. From 1980 to 1988, land use/land cover changes due to urbanization led to an average decrease of 0.33mm in surface runoff in a 200mm daily precipitation event in the study region. While from 1988 to 1994 and from 1994 to 2000, the consequence of land use/land cover was increase of 6.96mm and 0.69mm respectively. Keywords: land use/land cover change; urbanization; SCS model; surface runoff; Shenzhen

Corresponding address:
Mr. Jing Zheng Institute of disaster and public security, College of resources science and technology, Beijing Normal University No.19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58808179 Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: zhengjing@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Safety Inputs of Enterprise and Constructing of its Targets System


Quanjun Chen1,2
1. School of Resource and safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China; 2. Department of Urban Construction and Environmental Protection engineering, Xinjiang College of Industry, Xinjiang 830091, China

AbstractIt is important that safety inputs and its targets system have to be researched urgently in safety economics. The concepts of safety input, safety cost and safety investment are differentiated and analyzed. The concept of elasticity of safety inputs is putted firstly forward, and according to the causes of the accident, the targets system of safety inputs are built at the point of view of safety supervision and management. The targets of safety inputs are more directed against and practicality. At the same time, the system can make the enterprise managers understand the accordance between the basic inputs and safety inputs. Safety inputs are an important measure that the safeguard system of long term is sited up, so the system can play greater role in controlling and supervising and guiding the making decision of the safety inputs than ever. Key words: safety inputs; target system; human resource; material resource; information resource

Corresponding address:
Mr. Quanjun Chen The Department of Safety Engineering of Xinjiang Higher College of Industry No.17 Nanchang Road 830091 Wulumuqi China Tel: (0991)7736233 Fax: (0991)4521377 Email: chenqj88@21cn.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

Reducing Economic Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in Rural Mexico


Sergio O. Saldaa-Zorrilla
International Institute of Applied System Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract: Rural population living in poverty in Mexico is getting increasingly vulnerable to diverse hazards. Increasing occurrence of natural disasters is affecting rural livelihoods of particularly small-scale farmers by decreasing productivity and income. From its part, structural factors like asymmetries in trade conditions are also contributing to increase income uncertainty. All these factors together are becoming more socially and economically destructive as they drive small-scale farmers out of business, and is also pressing to increase out migration from rural areas. Currently, most of the farmers cannot afford risk transfer mechanisms, and the governmental disaster strategy is still insufficiently focused on ex-ante policy measures. During the period 1980-2000, 70% of total damages from weather-related events accrued to agriculture, and only one-fifth of that area was insured. The purpose of my research is to examine how natural disasters affect annual agricultural performance, its implications upon the poor, the positive effect of vulnerability reduction on the income of the poor, and the role of high vulnerability to natural disasters in increasing out migration from Mexico to the USA. My research focuses on economic vulnerability, which defines as the susceptibility of an economic agent to absorb negatively exogenous shocks, given its level of production, information, and options to avoid or smooth the negative effects. For that reason, my research is also aimed to enhance selected policy options (e.g. government-supported insurance schemes) to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural workers. The combination of social inequality and high exposure to disaster risks is not unique to Mexico, but is also shared by other countries (e.g. Indonesia, El Salvador, Turkey, etc). For this reason, examining how to reduce the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Mexico can offer valuable insights to other developing countries. Key words: subsistence farmers; out migration; risk transfer and loss sharing mechanisms.

Corresponding address:
Mr. Sergio O. Saldaa-Zorrilla Risk, Modeling and Society IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg Austria Tel : +43-2236-807-221 Fax: +43-2236-71313 Email: saldana@iiasa.ac.at

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NIED & BNU Joint Workshop


Flood Risk Management in Japan and China

Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

NIED Project I: Integrated Flood Risk Management and Participatory Flood Risk Communication Support System Development
Teruko Sato, Yukiko Takeuchi, Teruki Fukuzono, Saburo Ikeda, Shinya Shimokawa
Research Project on Social Systems Resilient against Natural Disasters,National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0006, Japan

Abstract: The total flooding area in Japan has drastically decreased in the past 100 years due to steadily increasing public investment mostly in structural measures such as in extending dikes and dams. However, high and long dikes along rivers have increased the peak flood discharge, and the development of flood-prone areas has increased the potential of catastrophic loss. Namely, it has brought a low probability but high consequence (LPHC) flood risk in case of dyke breaks, in particular, in urban areas where most of the urban agglomeration has been concentrated since 1970s in Japan. Japan's National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has launched a five-year research project (2001-2005) with the aim of making modern societies resilient not only to a traditional flood but also to a possible LPDC flooding. The new flood risk management approach that NIED is promoting is integrated flood risk management. This includes 1) shifting the management strategy from disaster prevention with zero risk to disaster reduction with acceptable risk, 2) integrating both structure and non-structure measures (hard and soft measures), and 3) creating a societal platform to call for wide range of stakeholders (governments, communities, and residents) in planning and designing stronger risk management plan against LPHC disasters using both short- and long-term strategies. Our research group has been developing such a participatory platform of disaster risk communication called the Participatory Flood Risk Communication Support System, or Pafrics, that can facilitate community-based participation in planning and designing processes for better integrated flood risk management. The Pafrics has been developed by taking a number of research outcomes concerning local peoples flood risk perception and disaster prevention activities through recent questionnaire surveys conducted by NIED. Keywords: integrated flood risk management, risk communication support platform, community-based approach, urban flood disasters.

Corresponding address:
Ms. Teruko Sato National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7637 Fax: +81-29-863-7810 Email: sato.sun@bosai.go.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

NIED Project : Risk Governance in Regional Society Enhanced by Information Communication Technology
Toshinari Nagasaka1, Kami Seo2,Saburo Ikeda1
1. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, 305-0006, Japan. 2. Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo, 150-8366, Japan

Abstract: The local community faces a wide range of underlying risk such as the natural disaster. In order to reduce the risk of natural disaster, it is indispensable that the local community prepares for the disaster at the normal time and makes an effort toward the reduction of the damage in an emergency by the cooperation and the mutual support among the residents. However, in Japan, the social change such as the aging and the urbanization, the change of the employment structure is weakening social-systems such as solving the miscellaneous problems which occur to the local community by the cooperation among the residents in the neighborhood. This social phenomenon makes preparation for the disaster of the local community become weak. To solve the problem, it becomes necessary to promote the forming of new communities and to activate their activities. For the society to deal with the uncertainty of disaster risk and to improve the safety and the relief of the local community, Risk governance becomes important. The risk governance is the efforts which reduce risk in the whole society through the mutual risk communication among the persons concerned about the safety and the relief of the areas such as the resident. The risk governance features the prevention of the disaster which utilized the social capitals such as the mutual support among the residents and the social-network by NPO and the corporate citizen and so on which is accumulated by the local community at the normal time and the damage reduction by it. It is different from the systematic measure which depends on the officials of the protection against disasters. In this research project we build a prototype of the e-community platform as the place on the internet to support the forming of communities and their activities and also to support the realization of the risk governance through the risk communication. This prototype is composed of web-log system and Geographic Information System, and so on. The resident and the citizens' group can use those systems synthetically from the general browser and the cell phone. We are now implementing the experiment with which used this prototype from December, 2004 in cooperate with the local government and the resident in Shimada City which is located on Shizuoka Prefecture in Japan. In this paper, we propose the concept of Risk Governance in Regional Society Enhanced by Information Communication Technology and report the overview of the experiment in progress at present in Shimada City.

Corresponding address:

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

NIED Project III: Evaluating Flood Risk Reduction Measures with Conjoint Analysis Method
Guofang Zhai1, Teruki Fukuzono1, Saburo Ikeda1,2
1. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-0006, Japan 2. Emetics Professor of University of Tsukuba, Tennodai 1-1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-0006, Japan

Abstract: The relationships among the attributes of flood prevention measures and related socioeconomic factors were clarified through a random-utility-based choice experiment utilizing a mail survey conducted in the Toki-Shonai River region of Central Japan. First, and foremost, the relationships among the attributes of flood prevention measures were quantitatively clarified, giving results that are consistent with common knowledge. Both the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for each attribute and the marginal substitute ratios (MSRs) among attributes were obtained from a model derived from the survey results. Second, among the five attributes of the flood prevention measures, four attributesnamely, the chance of reducing the number of disastrous flood occurrences, the reduction of inundation depth, the rate of improving a river environment, and the additional expense of new flood prevention measureswere statistically significant. Their coefficient signs were also consistent with common sense, but the attribute fatality ratios due to floods were not. Third, certain socioeconomic factors, like annual household income, flood experience, sex, and distance to a river, had statistically significant impacts on the utility functions in our model. Other factors, however, such as providing information on municipal budgets and the environmental effects of flood prevention measures, education, age, and river reach, did not significantly affect the utility functions. Finally, there was a statistically significant difference in the model results between Toki city and Kita ward of Nagoya city. The difference reflected the fact that Kita ward pays more attention to the occurrence of disastrous floods, while Toki city focuses more on environmental protection and fatality reduction measures. Keywords: flood prevention measures; multi-attribute evaluation; marginal willingness to pay (MWTP); choice experiment; Japan

Corresponding address:
Dr. Guofang Zhai National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7545 Fax: +81-29-856-0740 Email: zhai@bosai.go.jp

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

NIED Project IV: Relief Activities and Perspectives of Disaster NPOs in Japan
Isamu Suzuki, Toshinari Nagasaka, Teruko Sato
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Ibaraki, 305-0006, Japan.

Abstract: Since the Kobe Earthquake of 1995, volunteer centers for disaster relief are often organized and managed together by government administrations, disaster NPOs and community-based organizations following large natural disasters in Japan. The center needs not only to accept a big number of volunteers from inside and outside of the stricken-area, and but also to provide them adequate relief activities depending on condition of victims. During the flood disasters in Niigata and Fukui last year, some volunteer centers were built and more than 100,000 volunteers conducted relief activities at the stricken-areas. Our questionnaire survey revealed that their main activities were removing mud, disposing of rubbish and supporting victims at shelters, and that most of residents in the stricken-areas appreciated the volunteers and thought highly that their activities contributed to the restoration of the areas. On the other hand, another study of the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake showed that it was difficult to hand over the volunteer activities to local people or organizations for long-term restoration (Suzuki et al., 2005). Our questionnaire survey also revealed that residents living in the area have little interest in their local NPOs that work either disaster or welfare issues during non-disaster times. It is needless to say that the activities in preparation for a disaster are important for effective relief activities when there is a disaster. Disaster NPOs have to keep a suitable relationship with residents and community-based organizations that conduct various activities even during times in which there is no disaster. Key words: disaster NPOs; disaster volunteers; flood disaster; earthquake; volunteer center for disaster relief

Corresponding address:
Mr. Isamu Suzuki National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) University of Tsukuba Tennodai 3-1, Tsukuba-shi Ibaraki-ken 305-0006 Japan Tel: +81-29-863-7548 Fax: +81-29-856-0740 Email: QYJ10210@nifty.com

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

BNU Project I: Flood Disaster Monitoring and Management by Spatial Information Technology in China
LI JING
Institute of Resources Technology and Engineering, College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;

National Disaster Reduction Center of china, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China Abstract: Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters. It often causes huge casualties and economic loss in Asia countries, as be affected by monsoon, complex landform, frail ecological environment, and high population density. Flood disaster often be one of the most important factor to affect regional sustainable development. Chinese government pay much attention to flood disaster management, and use various technologies to reduce its loss. In recent years, spatial information technology, especially remote sensing technology be used to flood disaster management. The meteorological satellite, land satellite, and airborne remote sensing system are all used to monitor flood, evaluate its effect especially economic loss, and provide exact and timely information to government for decision make on disaster reduction. New disaster management satellite constellation and disaster management system based on spatial information technology will be established, and some international cooperation projects are developing, which will enhance our capability to disaster reduction further.

Corresponding address:
Prof. Jing LI Institute of Resources Technology and Engineering, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University China Email: lijing@ires.cn

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Abstracts of fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management 14-18 September, 2005, Beijing, China

BNU Project II: Flood Risk Assessment in Urban and Rural Areas in China
J.A Wang, J. Wang, T. Ye, Y. Ge, Y. G. Tian, W.D.Nie, J.Liu. J.Zheng, P.J Shi
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, China Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, China

Abstract: flood disaster is one of the most serious disasters in China, which mainly impacts on the coastal zone and vast east area of China. Since the last 30 years, losses induced by flood disaster have been rising. Since 1990s, Beijing Normal University has been paying highly attention to flood disaster research, especially in database construction, editing flood disaster maps and risk assessing zonation of China. To meet the urgent demand of emergency management of Chinese central and local governments, we developed decision supporting system for flood emergency management by remote sensing, GIS, and GPS, built an integrated flood risk analysis system to balance regional development and security construction, revealed the mechanism of land use/ cover changes impacting on flood disaster as well as soil erosion by water and wind. In our studies in flood disaster, much importance has been attached to international cooperation with well known institutes and universities all around the world, such as International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Austria (IIASA), National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan (NIED), Disaster Prevention Research Institute of Kyoto University, Japan (DPRI-KU), and George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, USA. Recently, main international research projects on flood disaster include Study on the Integrated Flood Risk Assessment in Dongting Lake Basin of China (financially supported by NSFC and IIASA), Integrated Disaster Risk Management: Case Stations and Field Campuses (financially supported by DPRI-KU and BNU), Flood Risk Management through Remote Sensing (financially supported by European Space Agency and Ministry of Science and Technology of China), Report on 98' Floods in China (financially supported by Swiss Re). Besides, we are taking projects on flood risk management financially supported by Ministries and Agencies of China, such as Study on Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Integrated Disaster Relief Paradigm in Rapid Urbanization Area (financially supported by NSFC), Study on Flood Risk Assessment on Agriculture and Insurance Mode (financially supported by PICC) and so on. We hope information, document and ideas can be shared with NIED and other international institutes and universities. Also, we wish to develop further cooperation and enhance academic exchange in integrated disaster risk management, especially in floods risk management in Asia. Keywords: floods; integrated disaster risk management; database; model; assessment; emergency management; international cooperation; regional paradigm for integrated disaster risk reduction; BNU

Corresponding address:
Prof. Peijun Shi Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology Beijing Normal University No. 19, Out of Xiejiekou Avenue 100875 Beijing China Tel: +86-10-58802158 Fax: +86-10-58802158 Email: spj@bnu.edu.cn
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