EUROCONTROL

Medium-Term Forecast
February 2012
Flight Movements
2012 - 2018

EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the February 2012 update of the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term flight
forecast. The forecast considers the development of air traffic in Europe over the next
7 years.
In recent months, Europe has seen a 5 percentage point drop in flight growth and a cut in the
economic growth forecast for 2012 from 1.7% to 0%. This drop in flight growth is sooner and
deeper than the economic indicator would suggest. These two factors have strongly
influenced the short-term outlook for flights leading to a downward revision on the forecast
issued in October 2011.
Over the full 7 years of the forecast Europe 1 is expected to grow to 11.3 million IFR flights in
2018, 16% more than in 2011. However, traffic in 2012 will decline (below -1% on 2011) and
an anaemic recovery in traffic growth (+1.5%) is expected for 2013. The average growth rate
over the 7 years remains weak at around 2% per year.
This forecast predicts that European traffic will reach the 10 million-per-year mark first
passed in 2007 by 2014, two years later than last year’s prediction of 2012.
Figure 1. Summary of the forecast for the ESRA08 2 .

2006 2007

Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)

.

.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
.

.

.

2015

2016

2017

2018

. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693 12,057

3.0%

B 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,658 9,803 10,078 10,372 10,686 11,002 11,305

2.1%

H
IFR Movements
(thousands)

2008

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,565 9,626

9,778

9,968 10,182 10,365 10,560

1.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.3%

2.5%

4.1%

3.8%

3.9%

4.1%

3.1%

3.0%

B

3.7%

5.0%

0.4% -6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -1.3%

1.5%

2.8%

2.9%

3.0%

3.0%

2.8%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

. -2.2%

0.6%

1.6%

1.9%

2.2%

1.8%

1.9%

1.1%

.

.

Short-Term (2012-2013)
European flights in 2012 are expected to decline by 1.3% (+/-1%). This decline is widespread
amongst the busiest states in Western Europe and spreads out to Mediterranean countries
(except Malta). The traffic forecast is largely influenced by the poor economic outlook and the
declines in traffic growth since the beginning of the Winter timetable.
On top of these factors, the 2012 European flight forecast also reflects

a slow recovery of traffic following the end of the Arab Spring,

the flat to negative prospects for Summer flight growth (based on the schedules).

To the East, traffic growth remains positive in nearly all emerging markets though at slower
rates than the past two years.
1
2

‘Europe’ is represented by the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA), see Annex B.
EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area in the extended 2008 definition (see Annex B).

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AAGR
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2011

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Current growth trends are strongly influenced at the regional and local levels by a number of
factors and events. These imply specific risks to the forecast. In several cases where
recovery could be faster than anticipated, these are upside risks and traffic growth might be
stronger. Risk areas include: recovery of flights to Egypt, which affects much of South-East
Europe but particularly Cyprus and Turkey; reactions to the failures of Spanair and Malev
(which cut 1% from total flights); airlines’ continuing revisions to their plans for the Summer;
the restoration of Libyan overflights; growth to and from Russia and the recent climb in fuel
prices.
At European level, 2013 sees a weak flight growth: +1.5% (+/-1%) with same level of traffic
as in 2011 expected overall. Economic forecasts for 2013 have also seen recent downward
revisions. Figure 2 shows disparities observed at State level in average growth rates over the
first 2 years of the forecast. Some States (eg. UK, Spain, Italy) will struggle to come back to
positive growth (compared to 2011) while others, on the east, will show strong growth levels
of around 5%.

Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2013 for each State.

Medium-Term (to 2018)
For the 2014-2018 period, traffic growth is expected to remain stable at around 3%.This is a
slightly faster rate of flight growth than previously expected, but still below the pre-2009 longterm trend. This means a 6-7 year hiatus in flight growth; longer than the 4-year gaps
following the escalation of oil prices in 1980 or the over expansion of the late 1990s (see
Figure 18 in the report).
Again, some differences are observed at State level: growth is clearly stronger in the
East (Figure 3).
Over the whole period, a number of effects will reduce growth:

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Lack of airport capacity means a reduction of around 134,000 IFR departures
(1.2% off total growth over 7 years);

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Continuing improvements to the high-speed train network reduce growth by around
47,000 IFR departures (0.4% off total growth to 2018) in Europe;
Aviation has now joined the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), reducing growth
by a further 0.2% in Europe over the 7 years.

Figure 3. Average annual growth 2011-2018 for each State.

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to highgrowth) as an indicator of risk as part of the risk management process, notably during
planning activities. This forecast includes upside and downside risks discussed in the report
(section 4.1) and, by 2018, the high-growth scenario has around 750,000 more flights
compared to the base-scenario (+6.6%); the low-growth scenario has around the same
number of flights fewer (-6.6%).
The EUROCONTROL 7-year flight forecast will next be refreshed in September 2012. The
first two years will also be updated in May 2012.

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EUROPEAN ORGANISATION
FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION
EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROL MediumTerm Forecast: IFR Flight
Movements 2012-2018

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EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS
TITLE

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight
Movements 2012-2018
Publications Reference:
Document Identifier
STATFOR Doc455

Edition Number:
Edition Date:

12/02/27-44
v1.0
28/02/2012

Abstract
This report presents the 2012 update of the EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast of instrument flight
rules (IFR) flights in Europe in 2012-2018. It has been prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics
and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in November-February 2012 and it replaces the Medium-Term
flight forecast of October 2011 and the Short-Term flight forecast of December 2011.
This document contains a description and discussion of the main results. The details of the
forecasts for individual States are available on STATFOR website (www.eurocontrol.int/statfor).

STATFOR
Movements

Forecast
Flight Movements

Keywords
Medium-Term
Trends

Contact Person(s)

Traffic Flow

Tel
X3346

Claire Leleu

Unit
DNM/STATFOR

STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY
Status
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Draft
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Accessible via
 Intranet
General Public
EATMP Stakeholders  Extranet
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Printed copies of the document can be obtained from
the EUROCONTROL Publication and Documentation service (see
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Publications
EUROCONTROL Headquarters
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Tel:
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Fax:
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DOCUMENT APPROVAL
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the present issue of this document.

© 2012 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).
This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole
or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the
non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior
written permission from EUROCONTROL.
The use of the document is at the user’s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly
disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied.

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD
The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present
document.

EDITION
NUMBER

EDITION
DATE

v0.1

20/01/12

Draft version

All

v1.0

28/02/12

Final version

All

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INFOCENTRE
REFERENCE

REASON FOR CHANGE

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CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................8
1.1

General......................................................................................................................................8

1.2

Summary of Forecast Method...................................................................................................8

2. TRAFFIC IN 2011 .................................................................................................9
3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................14
4. GROWTH IN IFR Flight MOVEMENTS TO 2018 ...............................................17
4.1

Summary of growth .................................................................................................................17

4.2

Other risks to the Forecast......................................................................................................22

4.3

Airport constraints ...................................................................................................................23

4.4

High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................24

4.5

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)..........................................................................................25

4.6

Comparison with earlier forecasts...........................................................................................26

5. GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................27
Annex A.

FORECAST METHOD...................................................................28

Annex B.

TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS .................................................32

B.1

ESRA08...................................................................................................................................32

B.2

Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................32

B.3

Functional Airspace Blocks .....................................................................................................33

Annex C.

SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS...............................34

C.1

Economic Growth....................................................................................................................34

C.2

Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................37

C.3

High-Speed Train Network Development ...............................................................................39

C.4

Airport Capacity.......................................................................................................................41

C.5

Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................41

C.6

Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................43

C.7

Airport Traffic Switch ...............................................................................................................45

C.8

Emissions Trading Scheme ....................................................................................................46

Annex D.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA ......................48

Annex E.

FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................51

E.1

Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2006-2018..............................................51

E.2

Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2018 .............................................................56

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Annex F.

REFERENCES .......................................................................................61

List of Figures.
Figure 1. Summary of the forecast for the ESRA08. ................................................................. i
Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2013 for each State.................................................... ii
Figure 3. Average annual growth 2011-2018 for each State................................................... iii
Figure 4. Actual traffic compared with the forecast of December 2010....................................9
Figure 5. Growth in 2011 was particularly strong around the Baltic, in Turkey, the
Netherlands and Ukraine. ...............................................................................................10
Figure 6. European neighbours: Strong Russian growth balances North African downturn. .11
Figure 7. Load factors in Europe remained near record levels. (intra-Europe traffic) ............11
Figure 8. Oil prices remained mostly above $100/bl in 2011. ................................................11
Figure 9. Traditional scheduled carriers took over as the fastest-growing market segment ..12
Figure 10. Market shares of the main segments hardly changed in 2011..............................12
Figure 11. GDP forecast have seen strong downward revisions. ..........................................14
Figure 12. Underlying growth for busiest States shows further falls in 2012..........................15
Figure 13. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ...................................................17
Figure 14. Forecast for 2012 in Europe is for a widespread decline. (Uncertainty is typically
1.0% percentage points)................................................................................................18
Figure 15. Forecast for 2013 in Europe is for a weak growth. (Uncertainty is typically 0.9
percentage points) ..........................................................................................................19
Figure 16. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2013 vs 2011). ...........19
Figure 17. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2018 v 2011)..............21
Figure 18. IFR flight growth in Europe is now persistently below the pre-2009 long-term
trend. ...............................................................................................................................21
Figure 19. Impact of airport constraints..................................................................................23
Figure 20. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 (top) and
most affected States (bottom). ........................................................................................24
Figure 21. Impact of ETS: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 due to aviation’s
participation in the scheme. ............................................................................................25
Figure 22. Forecast for the ESRA08 has been revised downwards (MTF11b dashed lines,
MTF12 solid lines)...........................................................................................................26
Figure 23. Summary of short-term forecast method...............................................................28
Figure 24. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast..............................................30
Figure 25. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ...............................................32
Figure 26. Regions used in flow statistics. .............................................................................33
Figure 27. FAB initiatives as of January 2011. (Source: EUROCONTROL PRU) .................33
Figure 28. Changes per State in economic forecast for 2012 for this flight forecast..............34
Figure 29. Since the previous forecast, the economic outlook for EU27 has significantly
worsened.........................................................................................................................35
Figure 30. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2018: nearly all States see
reduction in 2012 and 2013.............................................................................................35
Figure 31. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.................................................................................36
Figure 32. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone ..............................................................37
Figure 33. GDP Growth by Traffic Region..............................................................................37

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Figure 34. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone ..........................................................................38
Figure 35. High-Speed Train Times .......................................................................................39
Figure 36. Example load factor forecast, for Europe.............................................................42
Figure 37. Load factors by Traffic Region ..............................................................................42
Figure 38. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone..................................................44
Figure 39. Airport traffic switch...............................................................................................46
Figure 40. ETS assumptions ..................................................................................................46
Figure 41. Prices ....................................................................................................................47
Figure 42. Price Elasticities per (bidirectional) Traffic Region Pair and period ......................47
Figure 43. Growth in Europe ..................................................................................................48
Figure 44. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA .................................................49
Figure 45. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA. .......50
Figure 46. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual growth..................51
Figure 47. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual growth.......56

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1.

INTRODUCTION

1.1

General
This report presents the forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR)
flight movements for 2012 to 2018, prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics and
Forecast Service (STATFOR) in December 2011-February 2012. This replaces the
forecast issued in September 2011 (Ref. 1).
This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, starting with a
discussion of traffic in 2011 (section 2), the assumptions made in the forecast
scenarios (section 3) and some highlights from the forecast results (section 4). More
details are provided in the annexes: forecast method (Annex A), geographical
definitions (Annex B), forecast assumptions (Annex C), forecast details for Europe as
a whole (Annex D) and annual total forecasts per State (Annex E). The detail for each
traffic zone (usually the same as ‘State’) is provided on STATFOR website (Ref. 2).
STATFOR also prepares a long-term forecast (20 years) available in summary on the
STATFOR web pages (Ref. 3).

1.2

Summary of Forecast Method
The EUROCONTROL 7-year flight forecast grows airport-pair traffic using
models of recent trends, and of future economic and industry developments.
The 7-year forecast is a blend of two forecasting methods: time-series modelling of
recent traffic trends; and a model of future flight demand based on economic growth
and other developments. The trend-based modelling provides better accuracy in the
first years, so is more influential in the blend in the first two years. The economic and
industry modelling has more influence on the results for the later years.
The time-series modelling looks at recent and longer-term patterns of growth and
seasonality, taking into account information about one-off events, about economic
growth and available data on the airline schedules for the coming months.
The economic model is developed by growing baseline traffic (all IFR flight
movements for the last calendar year) taking into account factors such as economic
growth, past patterns of supply, the growth of low-cost carriers, and the influence
of high-speed trains.
The results of these processes are then constrained by annual airport capacities
and converted from airport-to-airport counts into flights through airspace volumes
using the flight patterns in the last 12 months and recent trends in how these patterns
are changing. No account of future route network changes is made (see section 4.2).
More detail of the method is given in Annex A.
Three ‘scenarios’ are used to capture the likely range of growth of flight movements.
They comprise: the low-growth and high-growth scenario which vary economic
growth, load factors and other variables in order to capture the most-likely range; and
the baseline forecast which is a guidance figure within this range. The scenarios are
discussed in section 3 and detailed in annex B.1.
Experience in recent years has shown the need to take the whole forecast range
(from low-growth to high-growth) into account. For this new forecast, the main areas
of risk are discussed in section 4.1.

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2.

TRAFFIC IN 2011
2011 followed a trend of weak traffic growth, becoming weaker still with the new
Winter 11/12 timetable. Overall, growth appeared stronger than it really was due
to cancellations in 2010. There were some hotspots, notably in the East and
Scandinavia.
Any discussion of 2011 traffic trends must start in 2010, which was a weak year for
European air traffic, but the particular legacy of interest for 2011 was the 170,000
flights that were cancelled due to the ash-cloud, snow and strikes. Since 2011 saw
fewer than 25,000 cancellations 3 , we saw ‘bounce-back’ events throughout 2011 but
particularly in April 2011 and December 2011. Indeed April saw growth jumping to an
unlikely-sounding 16%. Overall, that difference of around 150,000 cancellations
inflated the flight growth of 2011 by some 1.5% for Europe 4 .
This bounce-back is a substantial part of the overall growth in flights of 3.1% in 2011.
It means that the underlying trend during the year was only for between 1.5% and 2%
growth, as aviation in Europe remained under the pressure of an unfavourable
economic situation. Looking back, we can identify three phases of the year (Figure 4):

For the first few months, the weak underlying growth was masked by
cancellations at the start of 2010, and by a hesitant optimism in the industry that
was due to high load factors and an apparent improvement particular at the
premium end of the market. Reductions in flights to Tunisia and particularly Egypt
prevented any recovery from lifting the growth trend.

Over the Summer, the underlying trend changed little, though it was slightly above
the expectation of the May forecast. However, the mood of optimism began to
disappear as economic forecasts and industry-sentiment indicators declined, and
in our own industry the signs also turned downwards, with cargo load factors
leading the way.

The Winter 11/12 timetable saw a sharp deceleration, as several carriers cut back
to below the flight numbers of the previous Winter and warned of weak forward
bookings.

Figure 4. Actual traffic compared with the forecast of December 2010.

3
4

This preliminary estimate undercounts the effects of events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya (see below).
Here ‘Europe’ is used to mean ESRA08. See Annex B for definition.

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This annual average masks a geographically varied situation (Figure 5). Strong
growth was seen around the Baltic (extending also to Norway and the Netherlands)
and in Turkey and the Ukraine. Figure 5 just covers the period May to November to
avoid the confusion of the ash-cloud and snow bounce-back, but this still exaggerates
French growth due to the strike cancellations in the period in 2010. Notably Germany,
which as a large State would be expected to be to the left-hand side, does not appear
at all in Figure 5 due to static traffic in part as a result of airlines’ response to a new
departure tax.
In spite of its open skies agreement with the EU, Morocco saw a downturn in
arrivals/departures in parallel with that elsewhere in North Africa, if not as large. The
strength of the Canary Islands, which appears to be growing internally and as a
replacement Winter sun destination, however, boosted Morocco’s overflights.
Further afield, the effects of the Arab Spring are also evident in Figure 6: declines of
80-90 departures/day to Egypt and Tunisia together over the Summer months. This is
160-180 flights/day in both directions (the units of Figure 5), meaning that this nearly
cancelled out the Turkish growth. Indeed, taken over the whole year, this suggests
perhaps 50,000 flights fewer than expected 5 . By the same arithmetic, the growth
to/from Russia of perhaps 140 flights/day places the Russian flow as the secondlargest contributor to growth overall in Europe, after Turkey.
Figure 5. Growth in 2011 was particularly strong around the Baltic, in Turkey,
the Netherlands and Ukraine.

5

These are not necessarily cancellations in the same sense as those caused by snow or strike, so don’t get captured by the
cancellation calculations.

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Figure 6. European neighbours: Strong Russian growth balances North African
downturn.

Figure 7. Load factors in Europe remained near record levels. (intra-Europe traffic)

Figure 8. Oil prices remained mostly above $100/bl in 2011.

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Figure 9. Traditional scheduled carriers took over as the fastest-growing market
segment

Figure 10. Market shares of the main segments hardly changed in 2011.

For commercial carriers, load factors remained near record levels (Figure 7), although
they began to weaken in the Autumn, especially on the high-yield Asian flow. Oil
prices have now spent 12 months near €80/barrel (Figure 8) and the weakening euro
of recent months suggests that fuel prices will become more difficult yet.
2011 saw a marked change in the relationships between the main market segments,
as their growth patterns (Figure 9) became more synchronised than recently seen:

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The traditional scheduled carriers grew the fastest, at 4.1%. This is the first time
they have out-grown the low-cost carriers in percentage terms since the early
1990s.

The low-cost carriers had a year of much more moderate growth plans than in the
past, managing 3.9% flight growth. Some did better out of the strength around the
Baltic, but the Winter saw a sharp scaling back.

The (tourist) charter segment had a particularly difficult year (“non-scheduled” in
Figure 9), being the most affected by the drop in traffic to the winter leisure
markets of Tunisia and Egypt; although some were insulated a little from this by
their past diversification into scheduled operations. It declined by 5.8%.

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All-cargo saw warning signs in tonnage and load factors over the Summer; and
the flights finally went into decline in the Autumn. Over the year as a whole it
achieved 2.9% flight growth.

Business aviation (2.3% increase) saw a similar evolution, but a slightly lower
annual figure as there was less bounce in April, since it was least affected by ash
in April 2010.

The result of all of this was that their respective market shares hardly changed
(Figure 10); charter lost 0.5% points, which the traditional segment gained when
compared to 2011 figures.

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3.

FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS
The forecast is driven by past traffic trends and by scenario assumptions for
the future. The downward revision in the new forecast starts from a
deceleration in flight growth of around 5 percentage points since the end of the
Summer timetable. While this is partly explained by a cut in forecast economic
growth (equivalent to a 2.5%-3% drop in flights) it is an earlier and deeper
decline than economics alone would suggest.
The forecast is derived from historical traffic data and a set of scenario assumptions
(listed in Annex C). The downward revision in the forecast can be understood from
these data. In particular, since the 7-year forecast was last published in October the
inputs have changed in two important respects: GDP and flight growth. These
changes are behind a strong downward revision, even if our judgement is that this
revision may now have left us with up-side risks.
Firstly GDP forecasts, especially for 2012, have seen strong downward revision
during 2011, and particularly since the Summer (Figure 11). The last GDP forecast
that we used was for 1.7% growth in 2012 at the EU level, but this is now cut to 0%
for this update. This 1.7% revision alone would be expected to cut the flight growth
forecast by between 2.5% and 3%. The weaker economic situation continues into
2013 (more detail on this in Annex C.1.)
Figure 11. GDP forecast have seen strong downward revisions.

There was a sharp deceleration in flight growth from the end of October (Figure 4),
which had been flagged in advance by some carriers, but the extent of the downturn
was beyond expectations. This downturn had some limited influence on the
December forecast, whose input data included one month of the declining traffic. If
anything, this deceleration is even stronger since the beginning of 2012, with some
operators making further cuts, in addition to the collapse of Malev and Spanair (which
had 1% of European flights between them in 2011). Figure 12 uses the median daily
growth in the month, to give an approximate idea of the underlying trend largely
insulated from spikes due to weather and strikes. For the busiest five States, the
downward shift is perhaps 5% points since October, which is more than would be
expected from economic reasons alone. Now with three months of this downturn
feeding into the short-term forecast, the effect on the forecast is much more marked.

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Figure 12. Underlying growth for busiest States shows further falls in 2012.

-5%

Amongst the explanations for a decline in flights that is sooner and deeper than the
economic factors would imply are two factors which are not fully represented in the
forecast, but clearly weigh on the outlook for 2012. They are: the fuel price, which
has been quoted by many airlines as causing difficulties, and now seems to be
climbing further due to tensions between Europe and Iran, with the Brent crude price
at record levels in euro terms; and the weakness of national airlines, with a large
number of States looking to reduce or dispose of their stakes, leaving limited scope
for further re-capitalisation. We estimate that airlines with more than 6% of 2011
European flights are up for sale, in bankruptcy protection or else struggling to finance
their operations.
Some of the growth areas seen last Summer (Figure 5) have lost all or most of their
strength over the Winter: notably Canaries, Finland and Sweden. This weakness has
been picked up in the forecast. However, here there is an upside risk, with limited
visibility in the schedule data for the Summer of whether Canaries will return to being
a destination of choice as an alternative to North Africa.
The traffic disruption that followed the Arab Spring is represented in the forecasts
both as historical data and as assumptions for the continuing recovery. Twelve
months on from the sharpest downturn to Egypt, we are seeing some recovery in the
overflights for States such as Cyprus and Turkey. The timing and extent of this
recovery is uncertain; our assessment is that this probably represents an upside
rather than a downside risk.
Other inputs include:

Low-cost. For this forecast we have reviewed the assumptions about low-cost
market share growth to take account of the fact that this market share is now
growing more slowly, if at all in recent years. These are discussed in detail in
Annex C.2. The effect is most marked for larger States, where the market share
grows more slowly than in previous forecasts, or indeed in the low-growth
scenario might see a small contraction.

High-Speed Rail: In spite of the economic downturn, high-speed rail
developments continue to complete and deliver travel time savings. Over the next
7 years, there are an increasing number of cross-border connections or
improvements, such as Lisbon-Madrid, Amsterdam-London, Madrid-Bordeaux,
Paris-Barcelona, Zurich-Paris. (Annex C.3)

Airport capacity: These numbers have been refreshed, following data provided
by STATFOR User Group members, or by airports directly to EUROCONTROL.

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The main change has been the addition of capacity for the third airport in Istanbul,
which leads to faster growth from 2017. (Annex C.4)

Page 16

Load factors: Our forecasts generally project these to increase further, although
only by a couple of percentage points in the case of intra-Europe traffic. After
growth in load factors levelled off last year, the question must be asked whether
they have now reached a practical maximum. If so, we may be underestimating
flight growth. (Annex C.5)

Events and trends: As well as Euro12, Olympics, Croatia & Icelandic accession
to the EU and relaxation of visa requirements in the Balkans, we have included a
scenario for the continuing recovery of traffic to/from Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
Twelve months on, the sharp decline is dropping out of the tables. Other possible
scenarios certainly exist, and the knock-on effects of this for Malta and others
require further validation. (Annex C.6)

Emissions trading: This began in 2012, and is modelled as in previous forecasts.
(Annex C.8)

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4.

GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHT MOVEMENTS TO 2018

4.1

Summary of growth
As a result of the current poor economic outlook, which is for stagnation or
weak growth, and the current traffic situation, which saw cutbacks in flights
this Winter, we now forecast a decline in 2012, followed by a weak recovery in
2013. Over the remaining years of the forecast, flight growth is stronger at
around 3% per year. This, however, reflects a long-term growth trend that is
forecast to be lower than in the past. Total traffic reaches 11.3 Million flights in
2018.
Figure 13. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08).

2006
.

Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)

2008
.

.

2009

2010

.

.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693

12,057

3.0%

B 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,658 9,803 10,078 10,372 10,686 11,002

11,305

2.1%

H
IFR Movements
(thousands)

2007

AAGR
2018/
2011

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,565 9,626

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.3%

2.5%

4.1%

3.8%

3.9%

4.1%

3.1%

B

3.7%

5.0%

0.4% -6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -1.3%

1.5%

2.8%

2.9%

3.0%

3.0%

2.8%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

. -2.2%

0.6%

1.6%

1.9%

2.2%

1.8%

1.9%

1.1%

.

.

9,778

9,968 10,182 10,365

10,560

Short-Term outlook (2012-2013)
As a result of the poor economic outlook, which is for stagnation or weak
growth, and the current traffic situation, which saw cutbacks in flights this
Winter, we now forecast a decline in 2012, followed by a weak recovery in 2013
(Figure 13).
The previous section has described how this update of the forecast is particularly
influenced by the drop in flights of 5 percentage points this Winter and a cut in the
economic growth forecast for 2012 from 1.7% to 0%. This drop in flight growth is
sooner and deeper than the economic forecast would suggest. These two factors
have strongly influenced the short-term outlook for flights which is that European
flights in 2012 are expected to decline by -1.3% (+/-1%) (Figure 14). This decline is
widespread amongst the busiest states in Western Europe and spreads out to
Mediterranean countries (except Malta).
On top of these factors, the 2012 European flight forecast also reflects

a slow recovery of traffic following the end of the Arab Spring,

the flat to negative prospects for Summer capacities.

On the Eastern side, traffic growth remains positive in nearly all emerging markets
though at slower rates than the past two years.
Growth forecasts for all States are provided in Annex E, and in more detail on the
STATFOR interactive dashboard (Ref. 2).

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Current growth trends are strongly influenced at the regional and local levels by a
number of factors and events. These imply specific risks to the forecast:

The forecast includes a scenario for recovery of Egypt traffic. However, variations
in this would change the recovery in overflights, in particular for Cyprus and
Turkey, but indeed for much of South-East Europe. We believe this to be on
balance an upside risk, with recovery faster than currently forecast.

The recent failures of Spanair and Malev have cut 1% off total flights, with much
larger effects locally. On the one hand, we have assumed some limited
substitution by other carriers, on the other there is an upside risk of more
extensive replacement which would improve traffic growth in Spain, Canaries and
Hungary.

Information on capacity for the Summer remains incomplete, and airlines continue
to review their plans. We assess this on balance to be an upside risk, of stronger
growth than currently in the forecast.

The restoration of Libyan overflights has significant implications for Malta and, to a
lesser extent, Italy. This we also assess to be on balance a downside risk for the
short-term, with a less complete restoration of flights.

Growth in flights to/from Russia has been an important contributor to growth,
especially for States in central and North-East Europe (section 2), if this growth
continues, and particularly if the Russia-Egypt flow recovers more strongly, then
there is a risk of faster growth overall.

Figure 14. Forecast for 2012 in Europe is for a widespread decline. (Uncertainty is
typically 1.0% percentage points)

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The economic downward revisions extend into 2013, which is now expected to see a
1.5% traffic growth (±1%) across Europe (Figure 15).
Figure 15. Forecast for 2013 in Europe is for a weak growth. (Uncertainty is typically
0.9 percentage points)

Figure 16. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2013 vs
2011).

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Medium-Term outlook (to 2018)
Over the remaining years of the forecast, flight growth is stronger at around 3%
per year. This reflects a long-term growth trend that is forecast to be lower than
in the past, reaching 11.3 Million flights in 2018.
After 2013, growth is expected to follow a trend of about 3% growth per year (Figure
13). The previous peak annual traffic (10.1 Million flights in 2008) will be reached
again in 2014. This means a 6-7 year hiatus in flight growth, longer than the 4-year
hiatus after the 2000 and 1980 peaks 6 . Due to the weak start in 2012 and into 2013,
the average growth between 2011 and 2018 is just 2.1%. The high- and low-growth
scenarios are each around 1 percentage point from this.
As in recent years, the traffic development is not uniform across the region as Figure
3 in the executive summary illustrates. Growth (in percentage terms) is clearly
stronger in the East (see Annex E.2). In contrast, in terms of the number of additional
movements per day, the traffic will increase the most in the busy States Western
Europe (eg. Germany) but also in Turkey and Ukraine, which are forecast to see
some of the strongest traffic growth in Europe (see Figure 17).
Figure 18 illustrates that flight growth is now well below the pre-2009 long-term trend
line, and is forecast to remain below that trend. There are some upside risks, but
there are also good reasons for the future long-term trends to be lower than that
observed in the past. In particular, we can identify two major factors that have
contributed to strong growth in the last 20 years, but which now appear to be running
out of steam:

6

Deregulation of air transport in Europe around 1990 allowed supply to match
demand more accurately, as well as contributing to the growth of the low-cost
market segment. However, for several North-West European states, there is
increasing evidence through long-term stagnation or decline of shorter-haul
markets that the number of under-served markets is limited. Nevertheless,
deregulation of medium- or longer-haul remains a possible source of growth.

The expansion of the EU in 2004 and 2007 extended the area of air transport
deregulation, but more importantly introduced free trade and free movement of
people and businesses. This provided a one-off boost to demand which has now
run its course, though there are still some States that could be included.

The over-expansion in the late 1990s and the escalation of oil prices in 1980.

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Figure 17. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2018 v
2011).

Figure 18. IFR flight growth in Europe is now persistently below the pre-2009
long-term trend.
15

30%
Long-Term Trend
Before 2009

10

1960-2011 historical figures
2012-2018 forecast

25%
20%

Actual
Traffic

Forecast
Traffic

5

Long-Term
Average
Growth

0

15%
10%
5%
0%

Annual
Growth

-5%
1960
-5

Edition Number: v1.0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

© EUROCONTROL 2012. w w w .eurocontrol.int/statfor

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Annual Growth

Flights in Europe (Million)

IFR traffic in Europe

-10%

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4.2

Other risks to the Forecast
Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to
high-growth) as an indicator of risk. A number of specific risks, particularly for the
short-term, have just been discussed (section 4.1). More generally, we identify:

Page 22

This forecast is prepared as the economic forecasts in Europe have again been
revised downwards. Nevertheless, there has been some relatively good news and
it is possible that we are reaching the end of the downward revisions. The
uncertainty in economic growth has a direct impact on flight growth for Europe as
a whole. Traffic growth is riding on the outcome of the crisis as well as the speed
of the recovery.

In some States, the economic situation remains severe, with the potential for
significant falls in GDP. These risks are highly uneven across Europe.

Network changes and the route choice of airlines have a large influence on the
number of overflights. The recent events in North Africa have an important impact
on overflight figures for Malta and Cyprus mainly, but also in Italy and the
Balkans. We have included only one of a number of different recovery patterns.

More generally, recent refinements in the forecast method will better capture the
recent trends in overflights, but future network changes (eg. routings) are not
modelled by the forecast.

Tourism trends are quite variable and sensitive to the political climate in the
destination country. Although the growth at destinations that can substitute for
North Africa, such as Canaries, was strong last year, it is now much less so. A
further burst of growth, as a substitute, would be possible but is not included in the
forecast.

Oil prices have been relatively stable, but at a very high level, for the last 12
months. With fuel accounting for 30-40% or even more of costs of the airlines, this
has a significant effect on fares and cost of travel for customer. The jump in recent
weeks of the price of crude oil in euro terms to record levels has not been
explicitly factored into this forecast.

Participation of aviation in the Emissions Trading Scheme is integrated into the
forecast. However, recent experience has shown that national taxes in particular
can rapidly change the local outlook for flight growth.

Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters, socio-economic changes and
epidemics. The last seven years have not been quiet ones for aviation. There is
no reason to believe the next seven years will be uneventful. The impact on air
traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.

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4.3

Airport constraints
Constraints at airports mean that demand for some 134,000 flights cannot be
accommodated by 2018, which means a 1.2% reduction in growth over 20112018. This is a similar total to last year’s forecast, even though the new forecast
is lower. The location of the constrained airports also differs, with the new
airport for Istanbul making a significant difference in Turkey.
This forecast uses a refreshed set of airport capacity figures covering some 159
airports, building on:

The work done for the Long-Term Forecast 2010 (Ref. 9) and Challenges of
Growth 2008 (Ref. 4),

The data submitted directly by STATFOR User Group members,

Data compiled by the EUROCONTROL Airport unit from submissions from around
30 airports.

In the baseline scenario in 2018, demand for around 134,000 departures will not be
accommodated due to airport congestion (Figure 19, mainly in UK, Netherlands,
France and Germany). This will reduce the growth in departures by 1.2% across
Europe as a whole between 2011 and 2018. The reduction in growth will, of course,
be more marked in the States with congested airports, and is more significant in the
high-growth scenario.
There has been a geographical shift in the location of the most constrained airports
as some capacity figures have been revised downwards (the Netherlands, Germany,
UK, Hungary, Switzerland and Austria) while others have been revised upwards (Italy,
Belgium and Sweden). In particular, capacity in Turkey has been boosted to simulate
the presence of a third airport in the capital from 2017 (see Annex C.4). Overall, and
despite a lower traffic forecast, the number of unaccommodated flights is similar to
the one in the previous Medium-Term Forecast (excess demand of around 100,000
departures in 2017 in MTF11, see Ref. 5 compared to 98,000 in this forecast).
Figure 19. Impact of airport constraints.
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport constraints are taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Percentage Change
2018

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

High

24.3

27.5

80.6

140.0

210.8

197.7

342.7

0.2%

0.3%

0.8%

1.3%

1.8%

1.6%

2.8%

Base

16.2

17.9

42.9

73.3

120.2

97.9

134.0

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

0.7%

1.1%

0.9%

1.2%

Low

10.3

11.5

21.6

43.5

70.5

56.3

69.3

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.7%

0.5%

0.6%

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4.4

High-Speed Train
Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by just 0.4%
over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant. This is a slightly
weaker impact than in the previous forecast.
In the forecast model, an improvement in travel times for rail leads to a reduction in
demand for air travel. Figure 20 summarises the number of IFR departures that are
lost to rail because of improvements in the high speed train (HST) network. The effect
is around 0.4% in total over the 7 years of the forecast; which is small on the scale of
the network as a whole. However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large,
especially at the end of the horizon. Because some HST projects have been delayed
(not only due to the economic crisis but for some of them, because of environmental
and political issues), and owing to the lower levels of traffic, the current reduction in
traffic is below the MTF11 results (see Ref. 1) in which around 47,000 IFR departures
were assessed to be removed in 2017 from the network. It is now expected that a
reduction of the same order would only happen 2018. The HST network is assumed
to grow more slowly in the high flight-growth scenario, hence lower values for the
‘High’ in the Figure 18.
Figure 20. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08
(top) and most affected States (bottom).
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport High-Speed train network development in Europe is
taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)
2012

Percentage Change

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

High

.

4.7

16.1

25.7

29.2

34.2

44.4

0.0%

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

Base

.

11.9

19.0

23.8

28.1

38.9

47.4

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

Low

.

11.6

20.4

25.8

29.5

42.3

49.2

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

Change in IFR Departures (000s)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Base

France
Germany
Lisbon FIR
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
Turkey
UK

Percentage Change
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2012

2018

.

2.2

4.4

4.5

4.5

5.3

7.8

.

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

.

0.3

0.6

0.9

0.9

3.1

5.3

.

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

.

.

1.7

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.6

.

.

1.3%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

2.5%

.

.

0.8

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.3%

.

.

.

.

.

4.0

8.1

12.2

15.7

16.8

16.9

0.6%

1.1%

1.7%

2.1%

2.2%

2.2%

.

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.2

.

.

.

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

.

.

0.1

5.2

3.8

4.4

5.0

11.8

16.2

0.0%

1.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.8%

1.6%

2.1%

.

.

0.5

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.2

.

.

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.0%

As far as States are concerned, Spain and Turkey will see the largest impacts:
reduction of 17,000 and 16,000 IFR departures respectively in 2018 which
correspond to around 2% of traffic in each state. The effects are mainly due to the
Madrid-Bilbao and Madrid-Alicante lines in Spain and Istanbul-Ankara and IstanbulKonya for Turkey. France and Germany are less affected with around 8,000 and
5,000 (respectively) fewer IFR departures.

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4.5

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
The forecast models the impact of compliance with the EU Emissions Trading
Scheme. This is expected to reduce flights by around 25,000 by 2018, which is a
0.2% reduction in growth over the whole period.
This air traffic forecast includes an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) component to
account for the integration of aviation 7 within the EU cap-and-trade scheme since the
beginning of 2012. The scheme affects all aircraft operators regardless of where they
are based provided that they operate flights departing from or arriving at an
aerodrome located in the EU. Aircraft operators have now to surrender one allowance
for every tonne of CO2 emitted on a flight 8 to/from Europe. Under current rules, EU
gives the aircraft operators permits to cover 85% of the allowances (for free); the rest
needs to be bought from auctions or on the free market. The component implemented
in this forecast estimates the induced increase in fares (conversion of the excess
allowances into monetary terms) and the resulting reduction in demand.
Figure 21 summarises the estimated number of IFR departures that are lost because
of the entry into force of the ETS. In 2018, the forecast number of flights is expected
to be reduced by 25,000 IFR departures, corresponding to a 0.2% reduction in
percentage terms for Europe
Figure 21. Impact of ETS: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 due to
aviation’s participation in the scheme.
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when EU-ETS is taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)

Percentage Change

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

7
8

High

2.6

7.0

10.6

14.6

26.3

38.5

41.3

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

Base

1.4

4.6

7.5

11.4

16.2

24.6

24.7

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

Low

0.9

3.4

5.8

9.1

12.9

18.2

19.2

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

Directive 2008/101/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 November 2008.
The modelling has been performed on passenger flights only.

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4.6

Comparison with earlier forecasts
A combination of lower-than-expected flight growth in 2011, downward revision
for economic growth in 2012 from 1.7% to 0%, lingering into weak growth in
2013, and fewer airport constraints pushes the forecast back by about two
years.
Figure 22 compares this new forecast (MTF12) with the previous MTF (MTF11b), the
mid-year update of the MTF published in October 2011 (Ref. 1).

The actual traffic in 2011, which is used as the baseline for the MTF12, is lower
than what was forecast even in late 2011. In particular, the previous MTF underestimated the downturn in flights at the start of the Winter 2011-2012 timetable, so
the new medium-term forecast starts lower than the previous forecast expected to
be.

The MTF11b was based on an expectation of economic growth in 2012 of 1.7% in
Europe. For the MTF12, this has been revised sharply downwards to 0%. Coupled
with the weak Winter traffic, we now forecast decline in 2012, which therefore
shifts traffic volumes at least one year to the right. Recovery to the 2008 peak is
probably delayed until 2014.

The growth rates for 2013 are weaker than previously forecast, with the weak
Italian and Spanish economies, for example, weighing on flight growth.

From 2014-2018 growth rates are higher in MTF12 compared to MTF11b. Slower
growth in the early years reduces the effects of airport capacity constraints, and
indeed the new forecast includes additional capacity in Istanbul, representing the
planned new airport.

The combination of these factors leaves the current forecast some two years behind
the previous. In the high-growth scenario, the number of flights could match the
previous baseline forecast around 2015.
Figure 22. Forecast for the ESRA08 has been revised downwards (MTF11b dashed
lines, MTF12 solid lines).

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5.

GLOSSARY
AAGR
ACC
AEA
B
CFMU
CRCO
ESRA
EU27
EU
FIR
GDP
H
HST
IFR
L
MTF
NM
SES
STATFOR
STF
TR
TZ
UIR

Average annual growth
Area Control Centre
Association of European Airlines
(in tables) Baseline Scenario
Eurocontrol Central Flow Management Unit
Eurocontrol Central Route Charges Office
Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex B)
European Union (27 States)
European Union (abbreviation for EU27)
Flight Information Region
Gross Domestic Product
(in tables) High-Growth Scenario
High-Speed Train
Instrument Flight Rules
(in tables) Low-Growth Scenario
Medium-Term Forecast
Network Manager
Single European Sky
EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
Short-Term Forecast
Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs)
Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and
Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)
Upper Flight Information Region

Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary
for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 6) and on the STATFOR web pages (Ref. 3).

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

ANNEX A.

FORECAST METHOD

The forecast reported here combines the EUROCONTROL Short- and MediumTerm Forecast methods. The short-term forecast is largely driven by analysis of
recent trends. The medium-term forecast takes into account a broader range of
economic and industry developments.
Short-Term Forecast Method
The short-term forecast focuses on time-series modeling of traffic trends month-bymonth. The final result is in terms of numbers of flights per month per pair of zones or
regions: within Europe origin-destination zones are used (groups of airports often
smaller than States); outside of Europe, large regions are used (groups of States).
Four separate forecasts (with differing horizons and time and geographical resolution)
contribute to the forecast as a whole (see Figure 23):

The State-flow forecast method is the method developed in the legacy code. It
has been used for several years for published short-term forecasts. It forecasts
each State separately, and within the State, separate forecasts for a few main
‘flows’: internals, overflights etc.

The zone or region-pair forecast is largely based on time-series methods for
some 8000 series.

The schedule method uses data from published schedules for future months, and
comparisons of previous schedules with actual flights.

The first years of the medium-term forecast (see below) also contribute a view of
future traffic.
The combined forecast is then capped by airport capacities, using the same method
as used in the medium- and long-term forecasts. Overflights are calculated using both
the trends identified in the short-term forecast, and the base-year flight patterns used
previously in the medium-term forecast. The result is a single forecast from which
short- and medium-term views can be reported.
Figure 23. Summary of short-term forecast method.
Short-term Forecast

Medium-Term Forecast
(Parts of method only)

Supporting Data:
-Events
-Calendars

Historical Archive:
Monthly Airport-Pair Data

State-Flow
Forecast Method

Historical Archive:
Published Schedule

Zone/Region-Pair
Forecast Method

Initial Airport-Pair
Forecast

Schedule
Forecast Method

Combine

Aligned Airport-Pair
Forecast

Apply annual
capacities

Final Airport-Pair
Forecast

Forecast
Overflights

Final
Forecast

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Medium-Term Forecast Method
STATFOR produces medium-term (seven years ahead) forecasts of annual numbers
of IFR flight movements for volumes of airspace called ‘traffic zones’. Traffic zones
are typically States, but Spain and Portugal are split into two, and Belgium &
Luxembourg and Serbia & Montenegro are combined. Larger aggregate regions,
such as the 27 EU States, are also included. For each traffic zone, forecasts are
published for the main region-to-region flows (Annex B.2 defines these traffic regions)
on the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 2). Traffic flows are also categorised as
internals (within the traffic zone), arrival in or departure from the traffic zone, and
overflights (neither departing from nor landing in the traffic zone, but passing through
its airspace).
The forecast is published annually, at the beginning of the year and refreshed
mid-year to support the capacity planning process. Key features of the method are:

Development of a core, airport-pair forecast which, at each update of the mediumterm forecast, is shared by medium- and short-term forecasts;

The demand-side model focuses on economic growth and its influence on
demand from travellers and shippers;

A supply-side model is used to forecast growth directly on airport pairs, and
replaces the traditional demand-side model when appropriate;

Specific models for some market segments, such as business aviation and a lowcost effect;

The forecast is constrained by annual airport capacity.

The overflights are calculated using the airport-to-airport routing in the baseline
year, plus more recent trends captured by the short-term forecast method.

The forecast method is continuously being refined to improve the quality of the
outputs. For this forecast, the emissions trading scheme is integrated into the
forecasting process, and the supply-side modeling has been adapted to handle better
the recent cases of decline over several years for some flows. The forecast process is
summarised in Figure 24.
The review body for STATFOR is the STATFOR User Group. This has members from
civil aviation authorities and air navigation service providers, and from other industry
organisations. Participants are typically actively involved in statistics or forecasting.
The STATFOR User Group meets once or twice per year. It reviews the inputs to the
medium-term forecast and the resulting draft forecast. The aim of the review process
is to produce a forecast which is consistent on a European level and acceptable to
member States. This does not necessarily mean the forecast is the same as that
produced nationally.
The forecast is built from three main datasets.

9

A historical database of the STATFOR monthly statistics (derived from CRCO,
Network Manager 9 and National sources) for the last ten or more years at airportpair level;

Network Manager as the new name of the former CFMU

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A baseline from Network Manager and National sources that includes routing
information;

The set of scenario inputs.

Figure 24. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast.

The Medium-Term Forecast uses three scenarios which differ in terms of the
assumptions. The low-growth and high-growth scenarios between them capture the
most-likely range of future growth in flight movements; the baseline scenario indicates
a likely position within this range. The main parts of the scenario data are:

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Economic growth, summarised as GDP growth forecasts in real prices in local
currency; (Annex C.1)

Low-cost growth, which adds additional flight movements, on top of economic
growth to reflect new flight movements generated by low-cost airlines; (Annex
C.2)

High-speed train network, summarised as changes in rail travel time on city pairs
served by high-speed links, compared to the baseline year; (Annex C.3)

Airport capacity, in movements per year for major airports; (Annex C.4)

Load factors, which are assumed to change linearly from a current level to a
future level that can vary with region and scenario; (Annex C.5)

Network change, a percentage adjustment to arrival and departure movements
per traffic zone, which can be used - given supporting data - to represent in the
model the effects of consolidation, irregularities in the baseline, or local one-off
effects; (Annex C.6)

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Demographic change, which has a very small impact in the demand-side model.
These data are derived from UN population forecasts.

Emission Trading Scheme characteristics, prices of CO2 allowances, cap on
historical CO2 emissions and the level of auctioning in the ETS determine the
additional costs of airlines from aviation participation in the ETS. The MTF model
expects that these are passed onto passengers and therefore reduces the
passengers' demand accordingly. (Annex C.8)

The medium-term forecast is prepared in two stages: first the airport-pair forecast;
then the traffic per volume of airspace, calculated from this using estimates of routing
from airport to airport. Published tables, reports, graphs and maps are derived from
the second of these, for short- and medium-term forecast alike.
Each airport pair is grown as follows:

All-cargo flights are grown based on GDP growth.

Small airport pairs (< 25 flights per year) are kept constant.

Growth of military flight movements in the first year of the forecast follows the
average of the last three years for the traffic zone as a whole, with a maximum
change of 5%, and is kept constant afterwards.

Business aviation flights are grown based on observed trend at a State level
together with economic growth if this is a useful explanatory variable for this State.

For other traffic, the use of supply-side or demand-side approach is considered.
Supply-side is used if traffic matches one of the standard histories (circular flights,
long-term stable or declining traffic, direct relationship to GDP) and if demand
exceeds the supply. Otherwise, it is demand that drives and limits the growth.

In the demand-side, passenger numbers are estimated from flight counts, aircraft
type and load factors, then grown according to GDP growth and the elasticity for
this region-pair, then converted back to a number of flights using a number of
seats-to-flights relationships calibrated on historical data.

The first years of the forecast are aligned with the short-term forecast.

The growth of movements on an airport-pair may then be reduced if there has
been a reduction in journey times by HST since the baseline year, adjusted for
low-cost growth in the traffic zone and for any network change assumptions (by
traffic zone, airport, or airport pair) and capped by airport capacity.

The resulting growth per airport pair is the ‘airport-pair’ forecast. The final step is to
calculate how many flights are generated in each airspace by these airport-to-airport
flights. This is done using a combination of the routings through airspace observed in
the baseline year and trends in overflight growth per traffic zone.
At each stage, the results are validated using any available data, such as from the
STATFOR User Group or from the Industry Monitor. For example: base-year airport
movements are compared with statistics published by airports; first-year growth is
compared with known airline plans; long-term growth is compared with other
forecasts in terms of flights or passengers. Such comparisons are typically a matter of
judgement, rather than a precise numerical correlation.

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ANNEX B.
B.1

TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS

ESRA08

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as
much as possible of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) area for which
data are available from a range of sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level
reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only
slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data
from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in
the Medium-Term Forecast report issued in february 2009. It is now used as a basis
for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL
forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia and Latvia) though
still within ECAC.
Figure 25. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

Traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not
take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences
between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and
thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a
whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between
an FIR and an ACC definition is small.

B.2

Traffic regions

For this forecast, traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of
traffic regions listed in Figure 26 (for example in Annex D). Each region is made up of
a number of traffic zones. Traffic zones are indicated in the table for brevity by the
first letters of the ICAO location codes. The traffic regions are defined for statistical
convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.
The ESRA was defined in the previous section. For flow purposes, this is split into a
“North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region
stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an

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Eastern region. The ‘Other region’ includes the Baltic States and Oceanic. The
Former CIS Region includes Armenia and Azerbaijan (members of ECAC). In time
these will join the ESRA. More details are available in STATFOR Geographical
Hierarchy document (Ref. 7).
Figure 26. Regions used in flow statistics.
ICAO region/country
ESRA
ESRA1

ESRA North-West

EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA2

ESRA Mediterranean

GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

ESRA3
World 1

ESRA East

BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK

North Atlantic

BG, BI, C, EK, K, P (except KG)

World 2

Middle-East

O, L

World 3

North-Africa

DA, DT, GM, HE, HL, HS

World 4

Southern Africa

D, F, G, H, MR (except DA, DT, HE, HL, HS, GM, GE, and ESRA)

World 5

Far-East

R, V, Z (except ZZZZ)

World 6

Oceania

KG, N, P, Y (except NO)

World 7

Mid-Atlantic

M, T (except MR)

World 8

South-Atlantic

S

World 9

Former CIS Region

U (except areas in ESRA)

Other

Other

EE, EN, EV, EY, GE, GM, LP, LX, Swanwick Oc., Bodo Oc., Santa Maria FIR

B.3

Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from
2012 to 2018 for Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based
on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 27). FAB
initiatives (definitions) are constantly evolving according to the targets defined to improve
the performance of the European air traffic management network. The FAB used in this
reports refers to the January 2011 definition.
Figure 27. FAB initiatives as of January 2011. (Source: EUROCONTROL PRU)

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ANNEX C.
C.1

SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

Economic Growth

Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) come from a single coherent
source, Oxford Economics Ltd. Data in this report originate from the January 2012
update of the GDP forecast. These are shown for specific States 10 in Figure 31 and
Figure 32. For all other States, the growth of the traffic region is used. Traffic regions
are listed in Figure 26, and their economic growth in Figure 33.
The high- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets 11 from these forecasts.
In this update, economic growth for 2012 is strongly revised downwards, as was
already shown in Figure 11. Figure 28 shows that this revision applies to all States in
the scope of the flight forecast. Beyond 2012, Figure 11 illustrates that 2013 has also
been revised downwards, comparing the forecast used for the MTF11b (flight forecast
published in October 2011, but economic forecast from August), with the new forecast
(MTF12). There are some marginal upward revisions from 2015 onwards.
Figure 30 shows the differences in GDP forecast per State for each year. Nearly all
States see downward revisions in 2013 and a majority do in 2014.
Figure 28. Changes per State in economic forecast for 2012 for this flight
forecast.

10

In fact the forecasts refer to ‘traffic zones’. These are typically States, represented by its FIR. However, Belgium &
Luxembourg are combined, as are Serbia and Montenegro. Spain and Portugal are each divided into 2.
11
+1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5% for late years and
big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.

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Figure 29. Since the previous forecast, the economic outlook for EU27 has
significantly worsened.

Figure 30. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2018: nearly all
States see reduction in 2012 and 2013.

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Figure 31. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone
Source: 2010-2018 from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan2012
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 06/02/2012
Actual
2009

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2010

Base
2011

2012

2015

2016

2017

2018

Albania

2.8%

3.8%

3.0%

4.2%

4.2%

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

Armenia

-14%

2.1%

4.0%

4.3%

4.3%

4.6%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

Austria

-3.4%

2.3%

3.0%

1.0%

2.1%

2.2%

2.1%

2.1%

1.9%

1.9%

Azerbaijan

9.3%

5.0%

0.4%

4.0%

5.0%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

Belarus

0.2%

7.6%

5.0%

1.5%

4.3%

3.7%

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

3.3%

Belgium/Luxembourg

-2.7%

2.3%

2.0%

0.9%

2.9%

2.5%

2.1%

2.1%

1.9%

1.9%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

-3.0%

0.5%

2.2%

2.1%

5.0%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.3%

5.3%

Bulgaria

-5.6%

0.3%

2.2%

2.4%

5.3%

5.8%

5.9%

5.9%

5.7%

5.7%

Canary Islands

-3.7%

-0.1%

0.7%

0.2%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

1.8%

1.7%

1.7%

Croatia

-6.0%

-1.2%

0.4%

1.2%

2.0%

3.2%

3.6%

3.6%

3.2%

3.2%

Cyprus

-1.7%

1.0%

1.1%

0.6%

1.5%

2.2%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

Czech Republic

-4.0%

2.2%

2.0%

1.4%

2.8%

3.1%

3.1%

3.1%

2.9%

2.9%

Denmark

-5.2%

1.7%

1.1%

1.2%

2.2%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

Estonia

-14%

3.1%

7.2%

2.5%

4.2%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.5%

4.5%

FYROM

-1.0%

1.7%

4.2%

2.8%

3.0%

4.5%

4.0%

4.0%

3.7%

3.7%

Finland

-8.3%

3.6%

3.0%

1.3%

2.8%

3.1%

2.7%

2.7%

2.6%

2.6%

France

-2.6%

1.4%

1.6%

0.3%

1.6%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

Georgia

-3.8%

6.4%

5.6%

4.9%

5.5%

5.5%

5.2%

5.2%

4.9%

4.9%

Germany

-4.7%

3.6%

2.9%

0.9%

2.0%

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

Greece

-2.3%

-4.4%

-6.2%

-6.1%

-2.0%

-0.0%

1.8%

1.8%

2.1%

2.1%

Hungary

-6.5%

1.1%

1.0%

0.7%

2.7%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

3.2%

3.2%

Iceland

-6.9%

-4.0%

2.1%

1.8%

2.9%

3.0%

2.8%

2.8%

2.7%

2.7%

Ireland

-7.0%

-0.4%

1.2%

0.5%

3.1%

3.4%

3.7%

3.7%

3.9%

3.9%

Italy

-5.2%

1.2%

0.6%

-0.7%

0.2%

0.9%

1.3%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

Latvia

-18%

-0.3%

4.3%

3.5%

5.8%

6.2%

5.7%

5.7%

5.3%

5.3%

Lisbon FIR

-2.5%

1.3%

-1.3%

-2.9%

0.9%

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

1.7%

1.7%

Lithuania

-15%

1.3%

5.8%

3.7%

6.2%

6.3%

6.2%

6.2%

5.6%

5.6%

Malta

-3.3%

2.7%

2.0%

1.5%

2.6%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

3.0%

Moldova

-7.3%

6.9%

6.5%

4.0%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

Netherlands

-3.5%

1.6%

1.8%

0.7%

2.0%

2.2%

1.9%

1.9%

1.8%

1.8%

Norway

-1.6%

0.3%

1.2%

1.8%

2.2%

2.4%

2.3%

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

Poland

1.6%

3.8%

4.2%

2.8%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

3.8%

3.5%

3.5%

Romania

-6.9%

-1.5%

1.2%

2.8%

5.2%

5.8%

5.7%

5.7%

5.6%

5.6%

Russian Federation

-7.8%

4.0%

3.8%

4.4%

4.3%

3.6%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

Santa Maria FIR

-2.5%

1.3%

-1.3%

-2.9%

0.9%

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

1.7%

1.7%

Serbia&Montenegro

-3.1%

1.7%

2.7%

2.8%

5.0%

5.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.3%

5.3%

Slovakia

-4.8%

4.0%

2.9%

1.1%

3.5%

4.3%

4.7%

4.7%

4.0%

4.0%

Slovenia

-8.4%

1.3%

1.1%

1.0%

2.2%

3.1%

3.5%

3.5%

3.4%

3.4%

Spain

-3.7%

-0.1%

0.7%

0.2%

1.6%

1.7%

1.8%

1.8%

1.7%

1.7%

Sweden

-5.3%

5.4%

4.2%

1.5%

2.5%

2.1%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

Switzerland

-1.9%

2.7%

1.9%

0.6%

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%

Turkey

-4.8%

9.0%

7.7%

2.2%

5.6%

6.0%

5.5%

5.5%

5.4%

5.4%

UK

-4.9%

1.8%

0.9%

1.0%

2.6%

2.8%

2.7%

2.7%

2.5%

2.5%

Ukraine

-15%

4.2%

4.8%

4.4%

5.9%

6.5%

6.3%

6.3%

5.8%

5.8%

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Figure 32. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone
Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan 12.
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 07/02/2012
Actual

Base

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

China

9.2%

10%

9.1%

8.5%

8.8%

8.8%

8.3%

7.9%

7.5%

7.5%

India

7.0%

8.7%

7.1%

6.5%

8.7%

9.2%

8.6%

7.9%

7.6%

7.6%

Figure 33. GDP Growth by Traffic Region
Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan12
Comments: Real GDP Growth.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 07/02/2012
Actual

Base

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ESRA East

-3.6% 2.5% 3.1% 1.3% 2.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.6% 4.6%

ESRA Mediterranean

-4.4% 1.7% 1.2% -0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%

ESRA North-West

-4.1% 2.4% 2.0% 0.3% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4%

Far-East

-3.7% 5.6% 0.9% 2.3% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.9% 2.9%

Former CIS Region

-5.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.1% 5.0% 5.0%

Mid-Atlantic

-4.7% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 4.3% 4.3%

Middle-East
North Atlantic
North-Africa

C.2

1.2% 4.2% 4.9% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 5.3% 5.3%
-3.4% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.5%
1.6% 4.1% -12% 9.2% 6.7% 5.8% 4.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.2%

Oceania

1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 3.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6%

Other

-16% 1.1% 6.2% 2.4% 4.9% 5.9% 5.7% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9%

South-Atlantic

0.0% 6.0% 6.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.7% 3.4% 4.0% 4.0%

Southern Africa

3.7% 6.1% 5.6% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 5.4% 5.2% 6.2% 6.2%

Low-Cost Carrier Growth

The starting point is the market share of low-cost carriers in each traffic zone in
September 2011. The low-cost carriers are defined by means of a list (Ref. 8), more
detailed data on this segment are available in STATFOR web page (Ref. 3). For the
purposes of this analysis only, the market share is defined as the share of passenger
flights (i.e. excluding the military, cargo and business aviation since these are
forecasted separately, see Annex A).
The observed market share in 2011 is assumed to continue to change according to
low-, base- and high- scenarios. These scenarios are based on observed average
annual growth across all States in the ESRA over 2005-2011, which is 0.9 percentage
points per year, with a high rate of 2.9 points and low of -0.1.
These rates are rather different to previously used, as it is apparent that growth in the
low-cost market has for the most part slowed down considerably. The low value
indicates that in 25% of historical observations we saw an annual decrease in market
share: as a projection this becomes a State seeing a 1% share decline for low-cost
over 7 years. The high value was seen for 25% of observations (TZ and year), but the
data suggest that it is only really applicable in States with less traffic, so we used half
this rate for States with more than 25,000 departures in the month.

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The evidence is that low-cost carrier market share growth is partly new, generated
traffic (for example attracted by the price), and partly replacement or re-badging of
existing traffic. In the forecast, approximately half of the difference between the
baseline and future values shown in Figure 34 is converted to extra growth in flights.
Figure 34. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-co
Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 06/02/2012

Albania
Armenia

Low

Base

High

2011

2018

2018

2018

41%

38%

42%

46%

0%

0%

2%

6%

21%

21%

24%

27%

Azerbaijan

0%

0%

2%

6%

Belarus

0%

0%

2%

6%

Belgium/Luxembourg

15%

15%

19%

21%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

7%

7%

11%

19%

Bulgaria

15%

14%

21%

36%

Canary Islands

34%

34%

38%

44%

Croatia

20%

20%

23%

31%

Cyprus

23%

22%

29%

44%

Czech Republic

26%

25%

32%

47%

Denmark

13%

13%

17%

19%

Estonia

11%

11%

14%

21%

FYROM

6%

6%

7%

8%

Finland

21%

21%

23%

27%

France

18%

18%

21%

24%

Georgia

0%

0%

2%

6%

Germany

29%

29%

32%

34%

Greece

23%

23%

26%

28%

Hungary

15%

15%

18%

25%

Iceland

2%

2%

5%

12%

Ireland

47%

46%

53%

68%

Italy

37%

36%

40%

42%

Latvia

11%

10%

17%

32%

Lisbon FIR

32%

32%

35%

42%

Lithuania

26%

25%

32%

47%

Malta

31%

30%

37%

52%

3%

3%

7%

15%

Netherlands

22%

22%

25%

28%

Norway

22%

22%

25%

28%

Poland

25%

24%

31%

46%

Romania

47%

Austria

Moldova

26%

25%

32%

Santa Maria FIR

0%

0%

2%

6%

Serbia&Montenegro

9%

9%

13%

21%

24%

23%

30%

45%

Slovakia
Slovenia

Page 38

Actual

3%

2%

9%

24%

Spain

46%

41%

46%

50%

Sweden

20%

20%

23%

26%

Switzerland

16%

16%

20%

22%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Actual

Low

Base

High

2011

2018

2018

2018

Turkey

19%

19%

22%

25%

UK

46%

46%

48%

50%

0%

0%

4%

12%

Ukraine

C.3

High-Speed Train Network Development

The information on improvements in the high-speed train (HST) network between
2011 and 2018 on is based on information provided by the Union Internationale des
Chemins de Fer and many websites of a number of specific HST projects. The model
converts improved rail travel times into increased market share for rail, and thus fewer
passengers travelling by air.
Figure 35 indicates the changes in rail travel time in the baseline scenario. In the lowand high-growth scenarios, the times remain the same, but they happen earlier and
later, respectively. The distance indicated is based on an average location of airports
associated with the city, not on city-centre locations. It is also a direct distance, so
underestimates the distance in particular where the sea intervenes, such as LondonAmsterdam or Istanbul-Bursa.
For the 2012 medium-term forecast, the travel times have been updated, and the
years when the projects come into operation have been reviewed. In practice, there
have been few changes, since, in the medium-term the HST projects are largely
already in progress and appear to have been relatively little affected by the economic
slowdown.
Figure 35. High-Speed Train Times
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from UIC, TEN-T and elsewhere.
Comments: HST projects to be finalised 2012-2018.
Units: Travel time (minutes). Data last updated: 03/02/2012 Distances estimated from airport locations.

Distance
Km
Ankara

Bale Mulho

Rail Time (mins)

Speed (km/h)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sivas

B

355

720

.

.

.

.

.

120

30

.

.

.

.

.

177

BURSA (MIL

B

317

240

.

.

.

.

.

130

79

.

.

.

.

.

146

IZMIR-ADNA

B

519

900

.

.

.

.

.

200

35

.

.

.

.

.

156

Lyon

B

282

225

.

145

.

.

.

.

75

.

117

.

.

.

.

Marseille

B

486

340

.

240

.

.

.

.

86

.

121

.

.

.

.

Nimes

B

484

350

.

250

.

.

.

.

83

.

116

.

.

.

.

Paris

B

398

210

.

.

180

.

.

.

114

.

.

133

.

.

.

Barcelona

Lyon

B

530

460

.

.

.

.

.

180

69

.

.

.

.

.

177

Bilbao

SAN SEBAST

B

91

130

.

.

.

.

40

.

42

.

.

.

.

136

.

B

195

180

.

.

80

.

.

.

65

.

.

146

.

.

.

B

386

390

.

290

.

.

.

.

59

.

80

.

.

.

.

DIJON/DARO Bale Mulho
Frankfurt
Erfurt

Strasbourg

B

242

220

.

130

.

.

.

.

66

.

112

.

.

.

.

Leipzig

B

102

70

.

.

.

.

39

.

87

.

.

.

.

156

.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Distance
Km
Frankfurt

Rail Time (mins)

Speed (km/h)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bern

B

348

230

200

.

.

.

.

.

Bale Mulho

B

274

170

140

London

B

641

370

.

91

105

.

.

.

.

.

.

310

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

97

118

.

104

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

124

.

.

.

Paris

B

444

230

215

.

.

.

.

.

116

124

.

.

.

.

.

Geneva

Paris

B

397

202

185

.

.

.

.

.

118

129

.

.

.

.

.

Istanbul

Ankara

B

335

330

180

.

.

.

.

.

61

112

.

.

.

.

.

Konya

B

454

745

210

.

.

.

.

.

37

130

.

.

.

.

.

Sivas

B

682 1260

.

.

.

.

.

300

32

.

.

.

.

.

136

BURSA (MIL

B

84

240

.

.

.

.

.

135

21

.

.

.

.

.

37

Bern

B

239

180

150

.

.

.

.

.

80

96

.

.

.

.

.

Bale Mulho

B

166

110

.

.

.

69

.

.

91

.

.

.

144

.

.

Bale Mulho

B

361

230

200

.

.

.

.

.

94

108

.

.

.

.

.

Karlsruhe
Koln/Bonn

London

B

516

283

.

.

240

.

.

.

109

.

.

129

.

.

.

LISBOA

Madrid

B

507

690

.

.

165

.

.

.

44

.

.

184

.

.

.

Madrid

ALICANTE

B

361

360

.

120

.

.

.

.

60

.

180

.

.

.

.

Bilbao

B

327

300

.

.

.

135

.

.

65

.

.

.

145

.

.

Bordeaux

B

543

750

.

.

.

.

.

238

43

.

.

.

.

.

137

MURCIA SAN

B

386

250

.

.

.

120

.

.

93

.

.

.

193

.

.

SAN SEBAST

B

363

300

.

.

.

.

135

.

73

.

.

.

.

161

.

Valencia

B

295

210

93

.

.

.

.

.

84

190

.

.

.

.

.

Vitoria

B

286

220

.

.

.

120

.

.

78

.

.

.

143

.

.

Munchen

Berlin

B

481

360

.

.

.

.

.

240

80

.

.

.

.

.

120

PORTO

Vigo

B

108

480

.

.

.

.

60

.

13

.

.

.

.

108

.

Paris

Barcelona

B

824

440

.

335

.

.

.

.

112

.

148

.

.

.

.

Brest

B

511

250

.

.

.

.

.

180

123

.

.

.

.

.

170

Montpellie

B

600

210

.

180

.

.

.

.

171

.

200

.

.

.

.

Rennes

B

326

127

.

.

.

.

.

90

154

.

.

.

.

.

217

Barcelona

B

158

165

.

50

.

.

.

.

57

.

190

.

.

.

.

Madrid

B

605

500

.

230

.

.

.

.

73

.

158

.

.

.

.

SCHIPHOL A London

Perpignan

Strasbourg

B

359

287

.

.

240

.

.

.

75

.

.

90

.

.

.

LUXEMBOURG B

162

130

.

.

.

.

.

85

75

.

.

.

.

.

114

Lille

B

405

200

.

.

.

.

.

115

121

.

.

.

.

.

211

Lyon

B

373

280

.

200

.

.

.

.

80

.

112

.

.

.

.

Marseille

B

589

380

.

270

.

.

.

.

93

.

131

.

.

.

.

Paris

B

381

140

.

.

.

.

.

110

163

.

.

.

.

.

208

B

238

210

.

.

.

75

.

.

68

.

.

.

190

.

.

SAN SEBAST

B

310

240

.

.

.

.

65

.

78

.

.

.

.

286

.

Vitoria

B

218

140

.

.

.

65

.

.

93

.

.

.

201

.

.

Bilbao

B

49

140

.

.

.

30

.

.

21

.

.

.

98

.

.

SAN SEBAST

B

92

100

.

.

.

.

30

.

55

.

.

.

.

184

.

Paris

B

469

270

.

240

.

.

.

.

104

.

117

.

.

.

.

VALLADOLID Bilbao

Vitoria
ZURICH

Page 40

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

C.4

Airport Capacity

The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The final stage of this is that demand
in excess of the expected capacity cannot be accommodated and is lost. For this
medium-term forecast, information on capacity of 159 airports has been used, coming
from either long-term forecast assumptions (see Ref. 9) or from airports, civil aviation
authorities and air navigation service providers when this data is available.
These capacities are treated as confidential and not reported in this document.
Nevertheless, we have included for the first time an assumption that the proposed
third Istanbul airport, due for completion in 2016, will provide additional capacity from
2017. The effects of this are clearly observable in the growth of Turkey and its
neighbours.

C.5

Load Factors

Figure 37 summarises the assumptions about the development of load factors. Timeseries forecast have been made using the recent trends in the annual data provided
by the Association of European Airlines (AEA).
Figure 36 shows an example of this forecast. The lower bound of the forecast is used
for the “low-growth” forecast. This makes sense in terms of the air transport business,
but the side effect of this is to bring close the overall low- and high-growth traffic
forecasts, because in the high-growth scenario, more of the growth in passengers is
absorbed in load factor growth and less in growth in flight-frequencies.
It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (eg regional or lowcost carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. Whilst this is true, it is the
change in load factors which has the main influence on the forecast, so if the absolute
load factors are different but the changes are similar, then the inputs will still be
appropriate.
High fuel prices amongst other things continue to pressure airlines to keep load
factors high. As shown in Figure 7, load factors have been slipping slightly back from
their historic highs in recent months. The assumption here is that the upward
movement will resume, even if the net change over 7 years within the EU for example
is a modest 2% points.

Edition Number: v1.0

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 36. Example load factor forecast, for Europe.

Figure 37. Load factors by Traffic Region
Source: Actual: AEA, IATA. Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.
Comments: Data for 2018 based on year to December
Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 06/02/2012
Actual
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Low

Base

High

2018

2018

2018

ESRA East

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%

ESRA Mediterranean

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%

ESRA North-West

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%

Far-East

78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 80.6% 83.6% 81.6% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

Former CIS Region

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%

Mid-Atlantic

79.8% 78.9% 79.1% 79.4% 80.3% 81.7% 82.1% 84.3% 83.3% 81.7% 82.2% 81.7% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

Middle-East

67.1% 63.3% 67.5% 69.2% 69.6% 73.5% 70.8% 74.6% 73.5% 69.3% 71.3% 70.0% 74.0% 74.0% 74.0%

North Atlantic

77.4% 73.6% 79.7% 79.5% 81.3% 82.2% 81.1% 81.7% 80.9% 82.0% 83.8% 82.8% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

North-Africa

70.5% 65.2% 68.8% 65.3% 68.7% 67.0% 68.4% 69.4% 70.4% 67.9% 69.8% 67.7% 67.2% 69.8% 72.4%

Oceania

78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 80.6% 83.6% 81.6% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

Other

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 70.9% 71.8% 73.3% 74.8%

South-Atlantic

79.7% 73.8% 76.1% 82.2% 82.9% 82.5% 86.3% 85.1% 81.0% 80.2% 84.9% 85.9% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

Southern Africa

74.3% 77.4% 76.4% 75.9% 78.2% 77.9% 77.9% 79.2% 77.8% 77.6% 77.4% 76.9% 79.6% 80.0% 80.0%

Page 42

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Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

C.6

Events and Trends

‘Events and Trends’ are used to represent future events. The forecast method means
that only the local traffic (excluding overflights) can be adjusted in this way but with
the possibility to account for diverging trends in domestic and external flights by
adjusting internals or arrivals and departures separately.
The assumptions are expressed as 'cumulative' change: so a 1.01 figure in the year
2012 only would mean increase growth by 1% in 2012 and decrease it in 2013 (with a
total cumulative effect of 0 over the full period of the forecast). Thus, for one-time
events, a value in the corresponding year is provided. To show a lasting effect over
the whole forecast period, the flight adjustment factor is present in all years until the
end of the forecast.
The events in this forecast are:

For the London Olympics in 2012, the MTF12 assumptions are based on data
prepared for the Olympics planners via UK NATS.

The boost to local traffic of Poland and Ukraine from the Euro2012 football
championship is also included.

The collapse of Spanair and Malev is represented by reductions in local traffic for
Canary Islands, Spain and Hungary (and implicitly on all flows connecting with
these States).

EU accession: Croatia and Iceland are expected to join the EU around 2013. The
effect of air transport and market liberalisation is factored in for Croatia by an
additional 5% growth in 2013, with a declining effect in subsequent years. Iceland
is expected to see an effect half this size.

The Arab Spring: civil unrest in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya continues to affect flights
across Europe. Figure 38 shows adjustments to the arrival-departure flows to
allow for these effects.

The available data on airline schedules was not robust enough to be used en
masse for forecasting the Summer 2012 traffic; instead some small amendments
were made to the big three - France, Germany, UK – to produce better alignment
with the schedules. This was just 0.4% at annual level, shown here.

EU visa-free measures: the boost to growth after EU relaxation of visa
requirements for Serbian, Montenegrin and Macedonian citizens travelling is
assumed to have finished, while a small effect lingers for flights from Albania and
Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Adjustments to the overall number of movements have been made to allow for the
2012 and 2016 leap years, which leads to approximately 0.3% points of extra growth
in 2012 and 2016, and a corresponding fall in 2013 and 2017.
This section does not list a number of adjustments made to the historical data to
provide a clean baseline from which to forecast, since they are more technical in
nature. The large adjustments made for the ash clouds of April-May 2010, and
weather cancellations of December 2010 are now only of historical interest. The
number of flight cancellations in 2011 was much smaller than 2010, but historical
adjustments were made for 2011 including to North African flows, and to the
overflights of States neighbouring Greece which saw additional traffic during social
unrest there, principally in September and October 2011. These neighbours will
therefore see a dip in growth in those months in 2012.

Edition Number: v1.0

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 38. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone
Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling
Comments: Consolidation includes: trends from STF and future events such as EU Accession, major sport events a
Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 20/02/2012
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Albania

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

B

1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

L

1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

Bosnia-Herzegovina Total: Arr/Dep H

1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

B

1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

Canary Islands

Croatia

Egypt

France

Germany

Hungary

Iceland

Libya

Poland

Page 44

L

1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.963 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950

B

0.963 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950

L

0.963 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950 0.950

Total: Arr/Dep H

. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090

B

. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090

L

. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.844

.

.

.

.

.

.

B

0.844

.

.

.

.

.

.

L

0.844

.

.

.

.

.

.

Total: Internal H

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

B

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

L

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

B

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

L

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

Total: Internal H

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

B

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

L

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

B

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

L

1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.800 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700

B

0.800 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700

L

0.800 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700 0.700

Total: Arr/Dep H

. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040

B

. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040

L

. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.031 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239

B

1.031 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239

L

1.031 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239 1.239

Total: Internal H

1.007

.

.

.

.

.

.

B

1.004

.

.

.

.

.

.

L

1.002

.

.

.

.

.

.

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.016

.

.

.

.

.

.

B

1.012

.

.

.

.

.

.

L

1.008

.

.

.

.

.

.

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Spain

Tunisia

UK

Ukraine

C.7

Total: Internal H

0.925 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

B

0.925 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

L

0.925 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.985 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980

B

0.985 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980

L

0.985 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980 0.980

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.148 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149

B

1.148 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149

L

1.148 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149 1.149

Total: Internal H

1.009 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

B

1.009 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

L

1.009 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

B

1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

L

1.006 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004 1.004

Total: Internal H

1.007

.

.

.

.

.

.

B

1.005

.

.

.

.

.

.

L

1.002

.

.

.

.

.

.

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.033

.

.

.

.

.

.

B

1.028

.

.

.

.

.

.

L

1.023

.

.

.

.

.

.

Airport Traffic Switch

Traffic can be switched between airports for two reasons: to allow for the opening or
closure of an airport (as in the two examples here), in which case the overall number
of flights is unaffected; or to shift flights from a constrained larger airport to a fastergrowing secondary airport, in which case the overall number of flights can be
increased because the number of flights that cannot be accommodated at a
constrained airport typically decreases.
In recent forecasts we had switched traffic from Istanbul/Ataturk to Istanbul/Sabiha
Gokcen. A review of the effects of this showed that it led to better forecasting of the
latter, but under-estimating the former, and thus under-estimating the capacity
constraints. After discussion, this traffic switching was discontinued. In any case, new
capacity is expected to become available in Istanbul (see annex C.4).
The remaining traffic switches allow for the closure of two airports (see Figure 39).

The closure of Berlin/Tegel (EDDT), with traffic moving to Berlin/Schönefeld
(becoming Berlin/Brandenburg) from 3 June 2012. Working assumption
concerning transfer of Berlin/Tegel traffic to Berlin/Schönefeld: 50% in 2012 and
100% in 2013).

The closure of Bucharest/Baneasa airport, and its traffic moving to
Bucharest/Otopeni International Airport. It is not yet clear whether this will be a
permanent situation, but overall traffic growth should be unaffected.

Edition Number: v1.0

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 39. Airport traffic switch
Source: EUROCONTROL Data and analysis
Comments: Updated from MTF12 inputs
Units: Airport Traffic Switching. Data last updated: 16/02/2012
Low

Base

High

2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013
Traffic Type Traffic Between And Region Move To
All

C.8

EDDT

-

EDDB

50% 100% 50% 100% 50% 100%

LRBS

-

LROP

75% 100% 75% 100% 75% 100%

Emissions Trading Scheme

The aviation industry joined the EU ETS from 1st January 2012. The effects of the
ETS on traffic demand are now included in the STATFOR forecasts (see Ref. 10 for
details on the method).
The air operators need to surrender allowances for their CO2 emissions. This year,
the EU gives the airlines permits to cover 85% of the allowances (for free); the rest
needs to be bought from auctions or, on the free market. For each airline, the amount
of allowances allocated to the airlines free of charge is determined as a percentage of
the historical aviation emissions. The total amount of emission allowances allocated
from 2012 is capped at a level of 95%-97% of the historical aviation, depending on
the horizon (see Figure 40).
Figure 40. ETS assumptions
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: ETS characteristics (cap on historical emissions and level of auctioning, in %)
Units: Cap on historical 2004-06 emissions and level of auctioning, in %. Data last updated: 12/12/2011
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cap

Low

100% 100% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Base

100% 100% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

High

100% 100% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%

Auction Low

0%

0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Base

0%

0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

High

0%

0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

Applying the percentages defined in Figure 40 on the total historical amount of
emissions, the total amount of emission allowances that the aircraft operators will get
free of charge is calculated. Subtracting the latter to the estimate of total amount of
future emissions 12 , the total amount the operators need to buy either at an auction or
on the free market is then assessed. This amount of allowances to be purchased
(expressed per passenger per airport-pair) is converted into price terms with three
scenarios for future prices of CO2 as shown in Figure 41. The prices start at €8-13
per tonne of CO2 in 2012 and increase to €30-55 in 2018. They correspond to current

12

See Ref. 10 for future emissions calculation.

Page 46

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Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

market situation: in December 2011, the price of carbon contracts for emissions in
2012 were around €8 per tonne 13 . They are lower than the prices used in MTF11.
Figure 41. Prices
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Price in EUR per tonne CO2
Units: Price in EUR per tonne of CO2. Data last updated: 09/02/2012
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Low

0

8

10

12

15

19

24

30

Base

0

10

13

16

20

25

32

40

High

0

13

17

21

27

34

43

55

The airlines are expected to transfer the additional CO2 costs (i.e. the allowances
purchased) fully to their customers, the passengers. This will imply an increase in
fares, and consequently a reduction in demand from price-sensitive passengers. The
sensitivity of demand for air travel to changes in the price of the tickets is described in
Figure 42 by a set of flow specific price elasticities derived largely from an IATA
publication (see Ref. 11).
Figure 42. Price Elasticities per (bidirectional) Traffic Region Pair and period
Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Demand price elasticities (based on LTF08 figures)
Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 13/01/2012
ESRA
ESRA
North- Mediterran ESRA
East Other
West
ean

Former
CIS
Region

North
Atlantic

MidAtlantic

SouthAtlantic

NorthAfrica

Southern MiddleAfrica
East

FarEast

Oceania

ESRA North-West

-0.9

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

ESRA Mediterranean

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

ESRA East

-0.8

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

Other

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

Former CIS Region

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

North Atlantic

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

Mid-Atlantic

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

South-Atlantic

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

North-Africa

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

Southern Africa

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

Middle-East

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

Far-East

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

Oceania

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.4

-0.7

13

Source : Point Carbon

Edition Number: v1.0

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

ANNEX D.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA

Figure 43. Growth in Europe

Units: IFR Movements (thousands) and growth compared to the previous year.

Edition Number: v1.0

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 44. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA
IFR Movements(000s)
2007
Total: Internal

Total: Arr/Dep

Total: Overflight

Grand Total

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Annual Growth

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

H

.

.

.

.

.

7,673

7,801

8,084

8,351

8,643

8,947

9,169

.

.

.

.

.

-1.5%

1.7%

3.6%

3.3%

3.5%

3.5%

2.5%

2.4%

B

8,241

8,182

7,602

7,562

7,790

7,594

7,648

7,827

8,026

8,243

8,445

8,638

4.3%

-0.7%

-7.1%

-0.5%

3.0%

-2.5%

0.7%

2.3%

2.5%

2.7%

2.4%

2.3%

1.5%

L

.

.

.

.

.

7,521

7,512

7,596

7,717

7,861

7,969

8,086

.

.

.

.

.

-3.4%

-0.1%

1.1%

1.6%

1.9%

1.4%

1.5%

0.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

1,962

2,068

2,192

2,309

2,433

2,584

2,717

.

.

.

.

.

4.2%

5.4%

6.0%

5.3%

5.3%

6.2%

5.1%

5.4%

B

1,721

1,807

1,711

1,815

1,883

1,942

2,029

2,120

2,209

2,299

2,406

2,509

8.2%

5.0%

-5.3%

6.1%

3.7%

3.2%

4.5%

4.5%

4.2%

4.1%

4.7%

4.3%

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

1,924

1,993

2,056

2,120

2,184

2,255

2,326

.

.

.

.

.

2.2%

3.6%

3.2%

3.1%

3.1%

3.2%

3.2%

3.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

125

129

137

145

153

161

171

.

.

.

.

.

12%

3.6%

6.0%

5.6%

5.5%

5.5%

5.9%

6.3%

B

81

94

100

116

112

122

125

132

138

144

151

158

20%

16%

7.1%

15%

-3.4%

9.4%

2.7%

5.0%

4.6%

4.6%

4.5%

4.9%

5.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

120

121

126

131

136

141

147

.

.

.

.

.

7.1%

1.3%

4.2%

3.9%

3.9%

3.8%

4.1%

4.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

9,759

9,999

10,414

10,805

11,229

11,693

12,057

.

.

.

.

.

-0.3%

2.5%

4.1%

3.8%

3.9%

4.1%

3.1%

3.0%

B

10,043

10,083

9,413

9,493

9,784

9,658

9,803

10,078

10,372

10,686

11,002

11,305

5.0%

0.4%

-6.6%

0.8%

3.1%

-1.3%

1.5%

2.8%

2.9%

3.0%

3.0%

2.8%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

9,565

9,626

9,778

9,968

10,182

10,365

10,560

.

.

.

.

.

-2.2%

0.6%

1.6%

1.9%

2.2%

1.8%

1.9%

1.1%

Units: IFR Movements (thousands) and growth compared to the previous year.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

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EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Figure 45. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA.
IFR Movements(000s)
2010
1 ESRA North-W

2 ESRA Mediter

3 ESRA Mediter

4 ESRA East

5 ESRA North-W

6 ESRA East

7 ESRA East

8 ESRA North-W

ESRA North-W

ESRA North-W

ESRA Mediter

ESRA North-W

North Atlant

ESRA East

ESRA Mediter

North-Africa

2011

Annual Growth

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

H

.

.

3656.1

3717.6

3817.5

3898.8

3982.2

4044.1

4082.4

.

.

-0.6%

1.7%

2.7%

2.1%

2.1%

1.6%

0.9%

1.5%

B

3573.2

3679.4

3627.4

3661.7

3724.5

3791.0

3857.9

3897.0

3942.2

-2.5%

3.0%

-1.4%

0.9%

1.7%

1.8%

1.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.0%

L

.

.

3598.1

3607.6

3632.7

3668.4

3710.5

3725.9

3751.0

.

.

-2.2%

0.3%

0.7%

1.0%

1.1%

0.4%

0.7%

0.3%

H

.

.

1654.7

1679.8

1742.3

1800.4

1864.1

1927.1

1958.3

.

.

-1.2%

1.5%

3.7%

3.3%

3.5%

3.4%

1.6%

2.3%

B

1576.8

1674.8

1636.3

1643.7

1681.2

1725.1

1773.1

1816.2

1856.9

1.8%

6.2%

-2.3%

0.5%

2.3%

2.6%

2.8%

2.4%

2.2%

1.5%

L

.

.

1618.8

1610.7

1624.5

1650.0

1681.0

1702.4

1725.7

.

.

-3.3%

-0.5%

0.9%

1.6%

1.9%

1.3%

1.4%

0.4%

H

.

.

1414.9

1428.0

1478.7

1536.9

1606.8

1706.2

1778.8

.

.

-4.4%

0.9%

3.6%

3.9%

4.5%

6.2%

4.3%

2.7%

B

1466.9

1480.4

1397.5

1395.0

1429.4

1471.5

1525.6

1596.9

1655.1

1.5%

0.9%

-5.6%

-0.2%

2.5%

2.9%

3.7%

4.7%

3.6%

1.6%

L

.

.

1383.2

1366.9

1382.3

1409.2

1447.4

1487.9

1524.8

.

.

-6.6%

-1.2%

1.1%

1.9%

2.7%

2.8%

2.5%

0.4%

H

.

.

518.9

533.4

566.4

597.7

631.0

660.6

691.3

.

.

-0.3%

2.8%

6.2%

5.5%

5.6%

4.7%

4.7%

4.1%

B

510.6

520.3

511.7

519.0

539.5

561.1

582.4

600.0

620.0

-0.6%

1.9%

-1.6%

1.4%

4.0%

4.0%

3.8%

3.0%

3.3%

2.5%

L

.

.

505.6

508.1

520.8

535.2

549.3

559.5

571.8

.

.

-2.8%

0.5%

2.5%

2.8%

2.6%

1.9%

2.2%

1.4%

H

.

.

320.7

330.4

343.8

356.8

370.1

383.1

396.1

.

.

-0.6%

3.0%

4.1%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

3.4%

3.0%

B

308.1

322.6

318.1

325.3

334.7

344.3

353.1

361.5

371.1

-0.3%

4.7%

-1.4%

2.2%

2.9%

2.9%

2.6%

2.4%

2.7%

2.0%

L

.

.

315.6

320.4

326.0

331.8

337.5

342.6

348.8

.

.

-2.1%

1.5%

1.7%

1.8%

1.7%

1.5%

1.8%

1.1%

H

.

.

227.7

234.3

252.5

271.4

291.8

311.5

334.2

.

.

-0.1%

2.9%

7.8%

7.5%

7.5%

6.8%

7.3%

5.6%

B

234.9

227.8

224.1

227.3

238.2

249.9

262.0

272.8

284.9

-1.2%

-3.0%

-1.6%

1.4%

4.8%

4.9%

4.8%

4.1%

4.4%

3.2%

L

.

.

221.5

222.8

230.3

238.7

247.2

254.3

262.5

.

.

-2.7%

0.6%

3.4%

3.6%

3.6%

2.9%

3.2%

2.0%

H

.

.

200.4

208.2

226.7

245.9

267.4

298.0

323.8

.

.

-3.2%

3.9%

8.9%

8.4%

8.7%

11%

8.7%

6.6%

B

199.3

207.0

196.9

201.5

213.7

227.1

242.0

261.8

279.2

4.1%

3.8%

-4.8%

2.3%

6.1%

6.3%

6.5%

8.2%

6.7%

4.4%

L

.

.

194.1

196.3

205.1

215.2

226.0

238.5

250.4

.

.

-6.2%

1.2%

4.5%

4.9%

5.0%

5.5%

5.0%

2.8%

H

.

.

220.4

240.5

255.3

267.3

279.6

291.2

302.1

.

.

11%

9.1%

6.1%

4.7%

4.6%

4.2%

3.7%

6.2%

B

228.5

198.2

219.1

238.0

249.1

259.3

270.0

280.1

290.9

7.5%

-13%

11%

8.6%

4.7%

4.1%

4.1%

3.7%

3.9%

5.6%

L

.

.

216.9

234.0

242.2

249.8

258.0

265.6

274.4

.

.

9.4%

7.8%

3.5%

3.1%

3.3%

3.0%

3.3%

4.8%

I
Units: IFR Movements (thousands) and growth compared to the previous year.

Page 50

2010

AAGR
2018/
2011

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

ANNEX E.
E.1

FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH

Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2006-2018.

Figure 46. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual growth.

2006
Albania

Armenia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Belgium/Luxembourg

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bulgaria

Canary Islands

Croatia

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

209

226

237

247

257

270

278

5.0%

B

119

142

148

161

181

197

206

222

229

237

245

255

264

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

204

217

222

227

233

240

246

3.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

64

70

76

82

88

96

103

8.8%

B

43

48

52

48

53

57

64

68

73

78

83

88

94

7.4%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

63

67

71

74

78

83

87

6.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,154 1,200

1,254

1,300

1,354

1,410

1,456

3.4%

B

1,092

1,180

1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,143 1,174

1,212

1,252

1,292

1,332

1,373

2.5%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,132 1,152

1,173

1,199

1,226

1,250

1,275

1.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

131

141

153

165

178

197

213

8.1%

B

92

95

108

108

120

124

130

138

148

158

168

182

195

6.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

129

136

144

152

160

170

180

5.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

246

262

282

299

317

336

356

6.8%

B

146

173

199

182

196

225

243

256

270

283

296

309

322

5.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

241

251

260

269

279

287

296

4.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,110 1,140

1,184

1,224

1,267

1,304

1,337

2.9%

B

1,056

1,100

1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,098 1,118

1,147

1,178

1,209

1,235

1,264

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,087 1,098

1,112

1,131

1,153

1,169

1,187

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

285

307

324

341

359

380

397

5.3%

B

168

201

218

224

250

276

282

300

311

324

337

353

367

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

278

294

301

310

320

329

339

3.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

559

591

627

661

698

765

809

6.0%

B

402

444

478

477

504

539

552

578

605

631

658

705

740

4.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

547

566

587

607

627

656

681

3.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

303

309

320

333

347

358

370

3.1%

B

303

308

307

267

275

298

299

301

306

313

321

326

332

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

296

295

295

298

303

303

305

0.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

509

527

556

583

613

648

673

4.4%

B

339

398

422

422

459

497

503

515

534

555

577

602

625

3.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

497

504

517

531

547

563

578

2.2%

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 51

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

2006
Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

FYROM

Finland

France

Georgia

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Page 52

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

300

310

327

344

362

388

408

5.5%

B

217

242

272

268

285

281

295

302

313

325

338

355

370

4.0%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

291

294

302

310

319

330

340

2.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

716

740

781

818

859

901

940

4.4%

B

612

646

682

648

668

695

707

723

750

776

803

828

853

3.0%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

700

709

725

743

761

775

790

1.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

625

644

666

686

706

724

739

2.4%

B

602

631

629

576

595

625

619

632

647

663

677

689

702

1.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

613

621

629

637

647

653

661

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

188

197

210

223

235

247

260

5.6%

B

137

153

174

153

156

178

186

193

202

211

220

228

237

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

184

189

195

202

208

214

220

3.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

127

129

135

141

148

156

161

3.8%

B

118

123

125

125

125

124

125

125

130

134

140

146

151

2.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

123

122

125

128

133

136

140

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

266

271

283

295

306

315

326

2.9%

B

246

245

261

240

242

267

263

266

274

282

290

295

302

1.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

261

262

266

273

278

281

285

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,976 3,027

3,139

3,241

3,349

3,436

3,493

2.4%

B

2,854

3,025

3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,945 2,968

3,037

3,114

3,198

3,258

3,322

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,914 2,913

2,942

2,988

3,040

3,070

3,110

0.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

117

126

136

146

157

174

187

7.9%

B

73

80

80

77

94

110

115

123

131

139

148

161

172

6.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

114

120

127

134

141

150

158

5.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 3,073 3,143

3,271

3,385

3,507

3,621

3,727

2.8%

B

2,971

3,108

3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,041 3,082

3,167

3,255

3,344

3,419

3,501

1.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 3,010 3,026

3,071

3,126

3,186

3,227

3,277

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

668

682

710

739

774

810

839

3.6%

B

566

621

643

638

655

656

660

668

686

709

736

764

790

2.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

653

655

665

680

700

718

737

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

615

627

663

698

736

782

823

4.2%

B

605

615

622

608

622

617

608

613

638

664

691

723

753

2.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

601

601

618

636

656

676

696

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

119

126

133

139

146

153

161

5.5%

B

100

105

110

101

102

111

118

123

128

133

138

143

148

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

116

121

125

128

131

134

138

3.2%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

2006
Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lisbon FIR

Lithuania

Malta

Moldova

Morocco

14

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

523

542

571

602

634

667

697

4.2%

B

565

598

601

530

513

523

517

529

548

567

587

607

628

2.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

512

520

530

543

556

568

581

1.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,722 1,761

1,833

1,904

1,985

2,063

2,129

3.0%

B

1,641

1,779

1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,704 1,725

1,771

1,824

1,885

1,940

1,997

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,686 1,691

1,711

1,743

1,782

1,813

1,847

1.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

238

251

270

287

305

324

343

5.5%

B

176

202

225

206

214

235

234

244

257

269

281

293

305

3.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

232

239

247

256

265

272

280

2.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

453

464

486

502

520

537

553

3.0%

B

401

427

438

406

429

450

448

454

461

470

483

493

504

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

443

444

445

448

456

460

466

0.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

239

254

272

288

304

321

338

5.4%

B

173

195

219

192

206

233

236

247

259

271

282

292

303

3.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

234

242

250

258

266

272

279

2.6%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

94

106

112

117

124

132

138

8.0%

B

76

82

84

85

95

81

93

104

107

111

116

121

126

6.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

91

101

104

107

110

114

117

5.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

67

72

78

83

89

96

104

8.0%

B

28

35

41

44

54

60

65

70

74

78

83

88

93

6.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

65

69

72

75

78

82

85

5.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

350

364

385

405

427

446

467

4.1%

B

303

323

331

312

339

352

347

357

371

385

401

414

429

2.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

343

349

358

368

379

387

397

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,104 1,129

1,167

1,193

1,220

1,244

1,266

2.2%

B

1,056

1,108

1,090

996 1,013 1,085 1,093 1,109

1,136

1,164

1,182

1,197

1,215

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,083 1,090

1,104

1,120

1,138

1,152

1,168

1.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

585

600

619

636

655

671

687

2.9%

B

513

536

550

526

537

563

581

591

604

616

629

640

652

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

576

583

588

595

603

607

613

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

702

740

788

834

883

930

982

6.0%

B

491

556

612

566

599

655

694

722

753

785

816

845

876

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

686

709

728

750

770

788

807

3.0%

14

This report includes a forecast for Morocco which should be treated with extreme care. First of all, traffic counts presented
here are those recorded by Network Management system of EUROCONTROL—some internal flights may be missing, flights
departing from Ceuta-Melilla are considered as Moroccan overflights. Work is in progress to clarify these data. Second, forecast
shall be treated as less certain than for longer-established regions in Europe for which we have a better understanding of local
markets.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 53

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

2006
Romania

Santa Maria FIR

Serbia&Montenegro

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

Ukraine

UK

ESRA02

Page 54

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

497

517

553

589

629

681

727

5.9%

B

416

432

444

434

470

487

491

504

530

556

583

617

649

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

486

494

512

531

551

574

596

2.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

131

135

142

149

156

162

167

4.5%

B

107

109

116

113

118

123

129

132

137

142

147

151

156

3.5%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

128

129

132

135

139

141

145

2.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

571

603

635

666

699

743

775

4.8%

B

393

458

497

513

543

558

564

590

612

636

661

693

721

3.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

558

578

593

610

628

649

668

2.6%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

390

401

424

446

470

498

523

4.6%

B

330

324

345

337

370

382

386

391

408

424

441

459

477

3.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

381

384

395

406

418

429

442

2.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

361

374

393

410

430

452

469

4.2%

B

267

306

327

313

328

353

356

365

378

392

406

422

436

3.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

352

358

366

375

385

395

404

2.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,592 1,604

1,667

1,726

1,794

1,847

1,897

1.9%

B

1,641

1,779

1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,571 1,564

1,593

1,631

1,677

1,708

1,745

0.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,552 1,528

1,532

1,550

1,576

1,587

1,604

-0.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

731

753

784

812

841

867

894

3.1%

B

689

708

736

654

664

724

725

740

762

783

803

820

840

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

719

728

741

754

767

776

787

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,060 1,088

1,128

1,165

1,202

1,233

1,258

2.4%

B

1,032

1,093

1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,048 1,066

1,092

1,121

1,152

1,177

1,201

1.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,037 1,045

1,057

1,075

1,095

1,109

1,125

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,096 1,158

1,230

1,303

1,381

1,557

1,656

6.9%

B

693

757

822

857

965 1,039 1,083 1,135

1,201

1,263

1,328

1,461

1,553

5.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,073 1,113

1,172

1,224

1,277

1,364

1,433

4.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

472

498

538

578

619

668

715

6.7%

B

345

373

406

378

429

453

466

487

517

548

579

615

649

5.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

462

478

502

526

551

576

602

4.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,222 2,263

2,348

2,429

2,506

2,577

2,584

2.1%

B

2,465

2,550

2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,203 2,225

2,279

2,338

2,398

2,447

2,502

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,185 2,192

2,222

2,260

2,301

2,333

2,369

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,628 9,869 10,270 10,648 11,057 11,507 11,856

3.0%

B

9,439

9,916

L

.

.

9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,529 9,677
.

.

.

. 9,437 9,504

Released Issue

9,944 10,228 10,532 10,840 11,135

2.1%

9,649

1.1%

9,830 10,038 10,214 10,403

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

2006
EU27

ESRA08

Baltic

Blue Med

Danube

FAB CE

FAB EC

NEFAB

SW Portugal - Spai

UK-Ireland

DK-SE

2008

2009

2010

2014

2015

.

.

. 8,991 9,201

9,570

9,913 10,284 10,647 10,949

2.8%

9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,898 9,018

9,249

9,502

9,771 10,008 10,254

1.8%

8,969

9,122

9,300

.

2011

2012

2013

2016

2017

2018

H

.

.

B

8,937

9,441

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 8,810 8,854

9,582

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,759 9,999 10,414 10,805 11,229 11,693 12,057

3.0%

9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,658 9,803 10,078 10,372 10,686 11,002 11,305

2.1%

B

SES

2007

AAGR
2018/
2011

9,430

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,565 9,626

9,778

9,968 10,182 10,365 10,560

1.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,371 9,592

9,976 10,332 10,718 11,093 11,409

2.8%

B

9,337

9,794

9,645

9,907 10,187 10,433 10,688

1.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 9,185 9,235

9,355

9,514

9,699

9,834

9,991

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

786

821

875

928

982

1,037

1,095

5.7%

B

.

.

704

644

679

741

776

800

836

872

907

940

975

4.0%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

767

785

808

832

856

876

898

2.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,336 2,411

2,515

2,619

2,738

2,862

2,967

3.7%

B

.

.

2,310 2,225 2,308 2,296 2,311 2,361

2,429

2,507

2,597

2,685

2,772

2.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,286 2,314

2,348

2,398

2,459

2,512

2,568

1.6%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

787

826

880

931

988

1,075

1,141

6.0%

B

.

.

690

687

734

758

778

807

846

884

924

984

1,034

4.5%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

770

791

820

848

878

916

950

3.3%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,938 2,008

2,111

2,206

2,311

2,425

2,522

4.0%

B

.

.

1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,917 1,963

2,033

2,105

2,180

2,256

2,331

2.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,897 1,925

1,968

2,016

2,067

2,112

2,159

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 5,663 5,794

6,013

6,206

6,409

6,589

6,729

2.5%

B

.

.

5,816 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,607 5,686

5,827

5,978

6,133

6,254

6,384

1.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 5,551 5,584

5,652

5,743

5,847

5,913

5,995

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,651 1,695

1,762

1,822

1,884

1,940

1,997

3.0%

B

.

.

1,616 1,487 1,519 1,619 1,636 1,667

1,710

1,754

1,797

1,832

1,873

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,622 1,640

1,664

1,690

1,716

1,734

1,756

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,819 1,836

1,908

1,977

2,054

2,116

2,173

2.1%

B

.

.

1,969 1,786 1,820 1,882 1,796 1,790

1,823

1,867

1,919

1,954

1,996

0.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,774 1,750

1,755

1,775

1,805

1,817

1,837

-0.3%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,260 2,304

2,393

2,477

2,558

2,634

2,646

2.2%

B

.

2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,240 2,265

2,321

2,381

2,443

2,494

2,551

1.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. 2,221 2,231

2,262

2,301

2,343

2,376

2,413

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. 1,020 1,048

1,089

1,123

1,159

1,192

1,224

2.8%

B

.

.

1,031

931

953 1,008 1,011 1,031

1,058

1,084

1,110

1,131

1,156

2.0%

L

.

.

.

.

1,029

1,044

1,060

1,071

1,085

1.1%

9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,275 9,404

.

. 1,002 1,014

Units: IFR movements (thousands).
Source: AP2 forecast dated: 21Feb12

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 55

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

E.2

Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2018

Figure 47. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2012-2018 average annual
growth.

Albania

Armenia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Belgium/Luxembourg

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bulgaria

Canary Islands

Croatia

Cyprus

Page 56

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

.

.

.

.

5.8%

8.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 5.0% 3.0%

5.0%

19%

4.5%

8.9%

12%

8.7%

4.6%

7.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5%

4.2%

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.4%

6.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6%

3.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

13%

8.2% 8.8% 8.0% 7.8% 8.4% 7.8%

8.8%

B

2.6%

11%

8.0% -6.7%

9.3%

8.1%

11%

7.0% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.8% 6.6%

7.4%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

10%

6.1% 5.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%

6.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.0%

4.0% 4.5% 3.7% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3%

3.4%

B

4.1%

8.1%

2.0% -7.6%

2.2%

1.5% -1.0%

2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%

2.5%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.0%

1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0%

1.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

6.3%

7.5% 8.4% 7.6% 7.7%

11% 8.2%

8.1%

B

.

4.3%

13%

0.5%

11%

2.8%

5.2%

6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 6.4% 8.6% 7.2%

6.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

4.2%

5.6% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 6.4% 5.8%

5.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

9.6%

6.5% 7.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.9%

6.8%

B

13%

18%

16% -8.6%

7.7%

15%

8.3%

5.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3%

5.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

7.2%

4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 3.2%

4.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.7%

2.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5%

2.9%

B

4.9%

4.2%

0.7% -7.9%

1.5%

5.4%

0.6%

1.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.4%

1.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6%

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.5%

7.6% 5.6% 5.1% 5.3% 6.0% 4.3%

5.3%

B

5.5%

19%

8.5%

3.1%

11%

10%

2.2%

6.4% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% 4.0%

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.0%

5.5% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9%

3.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.6%

5.7% 6.1% 5.5% 5.6% 9.5% 5.8%

6.0%

B

1.6%

11%

7.7% -0.2%

5.6%

7.1%

2.4%

4.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 7.1% 5.1%

4.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.3%

3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 4.7% 3.8%

3.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.8%

1.9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4% 3.1% 3.2%

3.1%

B

4.0%

1.7%

-0.2%

-13%

3.2%

8.2%

0.5%

0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.9%

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.6% -0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7%

0.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

2.3%

3.6% 5.4% 4.9% 5.1% 5.7% 3.9%

4.4%

B

2.4%

17%

6.0%

0.1%

8.7%

8.4%

1.1%

2.4% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.8%

3.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.1%

1.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%

2.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

6.5%

3.5% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3% 7.1% 5.3%

5.5%

B

4.1%

12%

6.4% -1.2%

4.8%

2.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 5.1% 4.2%

4.0%

L

.

.

3.4%

1.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.0%

2.7%

2006

2007

H

.

.

B

2.7%

L

2008

12% -1.7%
.

.

.

.

Released Issue

2014

2015

2016

2017

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

FYROM

Finland

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

.

.

.

2.9%

3.4% 5.5% 4.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4%

4.4%

5.5% -5.0%

3.2%

4.0%

1.7%

2.2% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0%

3.0%

.

.

.

0.7%

1.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0%

1.8%

.

.

.

0.0%

3.0% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2%

2.4%

-0.3% -8.5%

3.3%

5.1% -0.9%

2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9%

1.7%

.

.

. -1.9%

1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2%

0.8%

.

.

.

.

5.5%

4.9% 6.6% 5.9% 5.6% 5.1% 5.4%

5.6%

12%

13%

-12%

2.1%

14%

4.2%

3.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 3.9%

4.2%

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.2%

2.8% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% 2.9%

3.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.8%

1.5% 5.0% 4.6% 4.8% 5.2% 3.7%

3.8%

B

6.8%

3.9%

2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4%

0.4%

0.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7%

2.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.9% -0.8% 2.2% 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8%

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.5%

2.1% 4.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.0% 3.4%

2.9%

6.3% -7.7%

0.6%

11% -1.5%

1.1% 2.8% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% 2.3%

1.8%

2006

2007

H

.

.

B

2.4%

5.6%

L

.

.

.

H

.

.

.

B

2.9%

4.8%

L

.

.

.

H

.

.

B

-5.7%

L

B

France

Georgia

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Edition Number: v1.0

1.4% -0.3%

2008
.

2014

2015

2016

2017

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.4%

0.4% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 1.5%

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.3%

1.7% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.6% 1.6%

2.4%

B

3.9%

6.0%

6.2% -0.8%

0.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0%

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -1.8% -0.1% 1.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1.3%

0.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

6.3%

7.6% 8.4% 7.4% 7.4%

11% 7.6%

7.9%

B

-1.2%

9.7%

-0.0% -3.6%

22%

16%

5.0%

6.5% 6.8% 6.3% 6.1% 8.6% 6.8%

6.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.7%

5.7% 5.8% 5.4% 5.1% 6.3% 5.5%

5.4%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.2%

2.3% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 2.9%

2.8%

B

4.2%

4.6%

1.4% -7.0%

1.7%

3.2% -1.2%

1.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4%

1.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.2%

0.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5%

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.9%

2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.6% 4.8% 3.5%

3.6%

B

3.2%

9.9%

3.4% -0.8%

2.6%

0.2%

0.7%

1.2% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5%

2.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.4%

0.3% 1.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6%

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.3%

2.1% 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 6.3% 5.2%

4.2%

B

4.4%

1.8%

2.4% -0.8% -1.5%

0.8% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.6% 4.1%

2.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.5% -0.1% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

7.3%

5.8% 5.5% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 4.8%

5.5%

B

4.1%

5.7%

4.2% -7.8%

0.6%

9.0%

6.1%

4.8% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8%

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

5.0%

4.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8%

3.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.0%

3.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 4.4%

4.2%

B

5.4%

5.9%

0.5%

1.9% -1.1%

2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5%

2.7%

L

.

.

.

. -2.1%

1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4%

1.5%

-0.2% -7.3% -0.2%

1.1% -2.3%

-12% -3.1%
.

.

Released Issue

Page 57

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Italy

Latvia

Lisbon FIR

Lithuania

Malta

Moldova

14

Morocco

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Romania

Santa Maria FIR

Page 58

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

. -0.2%

2.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2%

3.0%

3.9%

0.8% -1.3%

1.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9%

2.1%

.

.

. -2.3%

0.3% 1.2% 1.9% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9%

1.0%

.

.

.

1.1%

5.4% 7.5% 6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 5.9%

5.5%

11% -8.4%

4.0%

9.8% -0.4%

4.0% 5.2% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 4.2%

3.8%

.

.

. -1.5%

3.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0%

2.5%

.

.

.

0.7%

2.4% 4.8% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0%

3.0%

2.7% -7.2%

5.6%

4.8% -0.5%

1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 2.9% 2.0% 2.3%

1.6%

.

.

. -1.6%

0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1.3%

0.5%

.

.

.

.

2.6%

6.1% 7.0% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4%

5.4%

13%

12%

-12%

7.3%

13%

1.2%

4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8%

3.8%

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.0%

3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6%

2.6%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

16%

13% 5.3% 5.1% 5.3% 6.4% 5.2%

8.0%

B

0.2%

8.1%

3.4%

0.7%

12%

-15%

15%

12% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 4.2%

6.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

13%

11% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.1%

5.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

10%

8.1% 7.9% 7.2% 7.3% 8.1% 7.4%

8.0%

B

7.8%

25%

18%

6.7%

24%

11%

8.4%

6.7% 6.0% 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 5.8%

6.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

7.2%

5.8% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

5.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.6%

3.9% 6.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.6% 4.5%

4.1%

B

10%

6.6%

2.5% -5.8%

8.6%

3.9% -1.6%

2.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.3% 3.6%

2.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.7%

2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.2% 2.6%

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.7%

2.3% 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8%

2.2%

B

6.0%

4.9%

-1.6% -8.6%

1.7%

7.2%

0.8%

1.4% 2.4% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5%

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.2%

0.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4%

1.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.8%

2.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4%

2.9%

B

6.1%

4.5%

2.6% -4.4%

2.2%

4.9%

3.1%

1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

2.3%

1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0%

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

7.3%

5.3% 6.5% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.6%

6.0%

B

16%

13%

10% -7.6%

5.8%

9.4%

6.0%

4.1% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.7%

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

4.9%

3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.2% 2.5%

3.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.9%

4.1% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 8.3% 6.8%

5.9%

B

1.3%

4.0%

2.7% -2.3%

8.2%

3.8%

0.7%

2.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 6.0% 5.2%

4.2%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.4%

1.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 4.1% 3.8%

2.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

6.3%

3.5% 5.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.1% 3.2%

4.5%

B

0.9%

1.7%

6.5% -2.6%

4.5%

4.3%

5.0%

2.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% 2.8% 3.4%

3.5%

L

.

.

.

.

3.8%

1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.6% 1.9% 2.4%

2.4%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

H

.

.

.

.

B

4.0%

8.4%

-2.4% -5.1%

L

.

.

.

H

.

.

.

B

13%

15%

L

.

.

.

H

.

.

.

B

5.7%

6.3%

L

.

.

.

H

.

.

B

6.0%

L

.

.

.

2011

Released Issue

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Serbia&Montenegro

Slovakia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

Ukraine

UK

ESRA02

EU27

ESRA08

Edition Number: v1.0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2018

.

.

.

.

2.3%

5.7% 5.3% 4.8% 5.0% 6.3% 4.2%

4.8%

16%

8.6%

3.3%

5.9%

2.7%

1.1%

4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.8% 4.0%

3.7%

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.0%

3.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0%

2.6%

.

.

.

.

.

.

2.2%

2.8% 5.8% 5.2% 5.4% 5.8% 5.1%

4.6%

6.4% -2.4%

9.9%

3.1%

1.0%

1.5% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% 3.9%

3.2%

2006

2007

H

.

.

B

8.7%

L
H
B

Slovenia

2009

AAGR
2018/
2011

3.8% -1.6%

2008

2014

2015

2016

2017

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.1%

0.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8%

2.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

2.3%

3.6% 5.1% 4.5% 4.7% 5.2% 3.9%

4.2%

B

3.7%

15%

6.8% -4.2%

4.8%

7.5%

1.0%

2.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5%

3.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.1%

1.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

2.0%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -4.4%

0.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 2.9% 2.7%

1.9%

B

5.1%

8.4%

-1.8% -9.5%

1.8%

3.6% -5.6% -0.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 2.2%

0.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -6.8% -1.6% 0.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1.1%

-0.5%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.0%

2.9% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1% 3.2%

3.1%

B

3.8%

2.8%

3.9%

-11%

1.5%

9.1%

0.1%

2.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.8%

1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5%

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.2%

2.6% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0%

2.4%

B

2.4%

5.9%

0.3% -7.1%

0.7%

3.6% -1.3%

1.7% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0%

1.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.4%

0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5%

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

5.5%

5.6% 6.2% 5.9% 6.0%

13% 6.3%

6.9%

B

8.0%

9.2%

8.6%

4.2%

13%

7.6%

4.3%

4.7% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1%

10% 6.3%

5.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.3%

3.8% 5.3% 4.5% 4.3% 6.8% 5.1%

4.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

4.1%

5.5% 8.1% 7.3% 7.2% 7.9% 7.0%

6.7%

B

1.3%

8.2%

8.7% -6.9%

14%

5.5%

2.9%

4.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 6.1% 5.7%

5.3%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.9%

3.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%

4.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.8%

1.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 0.3%

2.1%

B

3.4%

3.5%

-1.4% -9.4% -4.3%

2.8% -1.7%

1.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.2%

1.6%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.5%

0.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6%

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.1%

2.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 4.1% 3.0%

3.0%

B

3.9%

5.1%

0.4% -6.6%

0.7%

2.9% -1.2%

1.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.1%

0.7% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8%

1.1%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.5%

2.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8%

2.8%

B

3.5%

5.6%

0.3% -7.2%

0.2%

2.6% -1.5%

1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5%

1.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.5%

0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6%

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.3%

2.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.1%

3.0%

B

3.7%

5.0%

0.4% -6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -1.3%

1.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

. -2.2%

0.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9%

1.1%

.

.

Released Issue

Page 59

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

SES

Baltic

Blue Med

Danube

FAB CE

FAB EC

NEFAB

SW Portugal - Spai

UK-Ireland

DK-SE

2018

AAGR
2018/
2011

. -0.4%

2.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8%

2.8%

0.2%

2.6% -1.4%

1.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5%

1.8%

.

.

. -2.4%

0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6%

0.9%

.

.

.

6.0%

4.4% 6.7% 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% 5.6%

5.7%

.

. -8.6%

5.5%

9.2%

4.6%

3.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7%

4.0%

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.5%

2.3% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5%

2.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.8%

3.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% 3.6%

3.7%

B

.

.

. -3.7%

3.7% -0.5%

0.6%

2.2% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2%

2.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.5%

1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2%

1.6%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

3.8%

5.0% 6.5% 5.9% 6.1% 8.8% 6.2%

6.0%

B

.

.

. -0.4%

6.7%

3.3%

2.6%

3.8% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 6.5% 5.0%

4.5%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.5%

2.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 4.3% 3.8%

3.3%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.3%

3.6% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.9% 4.0%

4.0%

B

.

.

. -5.1%

3.2%

2.7%

0.2%

2.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3%

2.9%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.9%

1.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2%

1.7%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.1%

2.3% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.1%

2.5%

B

.

.

. -7.0%

0.5%

4.4% -1.1%

1.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1%

1.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.1%

0.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4%

0.8%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

2.0%

2.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9%

3.0%

B

.

.

. -8.0%

2.2%

6.6%

1.1%

1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2%

2.1%

L

.

.

.

.

.

.

0.2%

1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3%

1.2%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -3.3%

0.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.9% 3.0% 2.7%

2.1%

B

.

.

. -9.3%

1.9%

3.4% -4.6% -0.3% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 2.2%

0.8%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -5.7% -1.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 1.1%

-0.3%

H

.

.

.

.

.

. -0.5%

2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 0.5%

2.2%

B

.

. 3E8% -9.5% -4.3%

2.5% -1.4%

1.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3%

1.7%

L

.

.

.

.

.

. -2.2%

0.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6%

0.9%

H

.

.

.

.

.

.

1.2%

2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7%

2.8%

B

.

.

. -9.7%

2.4%

5.7%

0.3%

2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2%

2.0%

L

.

.

.

. -0.6%

1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3%

1.1%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

H

.

.

.

.

B

3.6%

4.9%

0.4% -6.9%

L

.

.

.

H

.

.

.

B

.

L

.

.

.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Units: IFR movements growth compared to the previous year.
Source: AP2 forecast dated: 21Feb12

Page 60

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

ANNEX F.

REFERENCES

Electronic versions of most references are available on www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.
1

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast Update, Flight Movements (2011-2017)
EUROCONTROL STATFOR, September 2011, [MTF11b].

2

STATFOR Interactive Dashboard accessible at www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

3

www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

4

Challenges of Growth 2008, Summary Report, EUROCONTROL, November 2008.

5

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast, Flight Movements (2011-2017) EUROCONTROL
STATFOR February 2011, [MTF11]

6

EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts, EUROCONTROL STATFOR,
January 2005.

7

STATFOR Geographical Hierarchy, STATFOR Doc172, February 2009.

8

Low-Cost Panel v5, EUROCONTROL STATFOR, September 2007.

9

EUROCONTROL Long-Term Forecast, Flight Movements 2010-2030, December 2010.

10

Estimated effects of ETS on passenger demand for flights in 2012-2016, EUROCONTROL
STATFOR Doc365, March 2010.

11

Estimating Air Travel Demand Elasticities, Prepared by InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. for
IATA, December 2007.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 61

For further information, please contact:

STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
statfor.info@eurocontrol.int
http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

EUROCONTROL

The Statistics and
Forecasts Service
(STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008
certified

© 2012 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may
be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the
source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from
EUROCONTROL.

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