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1. Introduction to Statistical Quality Control (SQC)

2. Review of Probability

3. Review of Statistics

4. Exercises

These notes cover textbook sections 1.1–1.4, 2.2–2.4, and 3.1–3.3.

1.1 Quality and Quality Improvement

• Aspects of Quality (Garvin, 1987) ◦ Does the product perform properly? ◦ Is it reliable? ... durable? ... easily maintained? ◦ Is the product attractive? ◦ Does it have good features? ◦ Does it have a good reputation? ◦ Does it conform to speciﬁcations?

• Notions of Quality ◦ Traditional Deﬁnition: Quality is ﬁtness for use. ... the extent to which a product satisﬁes the expectations of its consumers. This encompasses both * quality of design * quality of conformance ◦ Example. Early vacuum cleaners – carrying handle on top – hose joint quickly wore out (inadequate design ⇒ failure to meet consumer expectations)

◦ Modern Deﬁnition: Quality is inversely proportional to undesirable variability. ◦ Example. .25cm A-washer diameters are more variable ⇒ B-washer are usually closer to target ⇒ Fewer leaky faucets with B-washers. * Target: best performance when diameter = 1. Washer for a water faucet * Requirement: internal diameter must be between 1. Both supply washers with mean diameter 1.3cm.2 and 1.25cm * Suppliers: A and B. * Less variability ⇒ better quality.

• Notions of Quality Improvement ◦ Traditional notion: Quality Control – the exercising of restraint or direction over someone or something to assure that speciﬁcations are met as closely as possible. ◦ Modern notion: Reduced variability ⇒ better quality ⇒ Quality Improvement – the reduction of variability in processes and products. .

the most desirable level of a performance characteristic ◦ Speciﬁcations: * USL (upper speciﬁcation limit) the highest level considered to be acceptable. it is considered to have a two-sided tolerance. * If only one of the LSL or USL is set.• Quality Engineering Terminology ◦ Performance characteristics: relevant attributes which can be measured ◦ Target Value . then the characteristic has a one-sided tolerance. . * If a performance characteristic is assigned a LSL and USL. * LSL (lower speciﬁcation limit) the lowest level considered to be acceptable.

3 cm and LSL = 1.3 cm or less than 1.2 cm * Internal diameter is a two-sided tolerance. * A problem or ﬂaw in a ﬁnished item is said to be a nonconformity or defect. ◦ Example (cont’d) * performance characteristic = washer diameter * target value = 1.2 cm is nonconforming.25 cm * USL = 1. . * A washer with an internal diameter exceeding 1.* Products which fail to meet speciﬁcations are said to be nonconforming or defective. * A faucet with a nonconforming washer has a nonconformity.

* The target value for this characteristic is 800 MHz. Thus. and a chip with a clock speed of 740 MHz is nonconforming. . * A chip with a clock speed of 780 MHz is conforming to speciﬁcation.◦ Example. the chip is not useable as a 800 MHz chip. The true speed of a chip is not exactly 800 MHz. * Suppose that if the speed is less than 750 MHz. clock speed has a one-sided tolerance. 800 MHz chips are to be produced for Pentium computers. Then LSL = 750 and there is no USL.

* small amounts of variability in stage of production ⇒ large over-all variability in ﬁnal product .• Why is Quality Control Important? ◦ Hand-made articles are often of high quality due to * one person being responsible for all aspects of production * pride of workmanship ◦ Problem: low productivity ⇒ costly ◦ Solution: mass production ◦ Problem: quality decreases ◦ Cause: * less attention paid to detail * problems may not be seen as they develop.

S.2 A Brief History of Quality Control • 1700-1800: European guilds • 1800-1900: Industrial revolution • 1907-1908: AT & T begins product inspection • 1924: Control Charts (Shewhart) • 1928: Acceptance Sampling reﬁned (Dodge. Romig) • 1942: Sequential Sampling (Wald) • 1948: DOE in industry (Taguchi) • 1954: CUSUM chart (E. Page) .1.

• 1959: EWMA chart (S. Roberts) • 1960’s: Zero-defects programs (North America) • 1970’s: TQM (North America) • 1980: Taguchi methods introduced to North American • 1989: Six-sigma approach (Motorola) .

1.3 Methods of Quality Control • Acceptance Sampling: procedures for inspecting the ﬁnished product ◦ a sample of items is selected from each lot. ◦ MIL-STD-105E is the most popular acceptance sampling system . the lot is either judged 1. too many defectives). unacceptable (i. acceptable or 2. and the number of defective items is counted ◦ using a statistical rule.e.

.• Statistical Process Control (SPC): ◦ a set of procedures for monitoring manufacturing processes ◦ increase the chance that ﬁnished products will meet requirements ◦ Control Charts: graphical techniques for monitoring the production of a part or parts prior to ﬁnal assembly ◦ Graphical Methods: a set of techniques for determining possible causes of out of control conditions ◦ Pareto Analysis: tools for setting priorities.

• Design of Experiments: a set of procedures used to determine the best possible product design. ◦ Often. a number of diﬀerent factors contribute to the quality of a product. . ◦ Eﬃcient experimental designs are used to minimize the number of experimental runs. ◦ Experiments are used to determine which combination of factors will produce the highest quality product. and the manufacturer often has the ability to control the level of some or all of these constituents.

. Do not rely on ﬁnal inspection.4 Other Considerations • Quality Philosophy ◦ W. Focus on continuous improvement. 3. 4.1.E. Choose suppliers on basis of quality. 2. Deming’s 14 directives for management: 1. Reject poor workmanship and bad service. development and innovation to improve product design and performance. Invest in research. 5. not price alone.

Avoid targets. Drive out fear. slogans and numerical goals. Instead. All employees should be trained in the technical aspects of their job as well as in quality methods. The goal of supervision is to improve the work system and the product. Encourage cooperation among diﬀerent organizational units. Workers should be free to ask questions.6. 10. . 9. 8. report problems without fear. 7. work to improve the system and provide information on that.

Eliminate numerical quotas and work standards. . Remove barriers that discourage employees from doing their jobs. 14. 13. ‘Workers tend to optimize’ – if required to produce n parts per day. Institute ongoing training and education programs for all employees. powerful statistical techniques. Create a structure in top management that will vigorously advocate the ﬁrst 13 points.11. they will not feel it necessary to produce n + 1 parts on a given day 12. including simple.

4. E. a consumer returns a defective product for refund or repair. 2. These costs are not independent. External Failure Costs arise with products that have already been shipped. More prevention can lead to decreases in other costs. The cost is borne by the manufacturer. SPC). This item might be sold at a reduced price.g. and the company’s reputation may suﬀer.• Quality Costs 1. Prevention Costs are associated with improving the quality of the production process (e. Appraisal Costs are due to inspection of products before shipment. Internal Failure Costs are due to waste resulting from production of defective parts which are re-worked and re-tested. ..g. 3.

SPC) can reduce manufacturing costs and increase productivity simultaneously. 75+15 * Suppose SPC techniques can reduce the rate of nonconformance from 25% to 5%. ** 75 parts are acceptable (avg. * The manufacturing cost per good part = 20(100)+4(15) = $22.An increase in prevention (i.) ** 25 parts are defective ** 60% of the nonconforming parts can be reworked for $4 per part. . * Example. The rest are scrapped. A manufacturer is producing parts for a photocopier: ** 100 parts per day at $20 per part.89.e.

* Now. 95+3 ⇒ manufacturing costs are lower with of SPC. the manufacturing cost per good part is = 20(100)+4(3) = $20. .* With SPC. and 5 × 60% = 3 are produced for an additional $4 per part. 95 parts per day are produced right the ﬁrst time.53. and productivity increased from 90 good parts per day to 98.

g. defective-nondefective). and the number of defectives in the sample is counted ◦ Example a. of which 3 are defective.Review of Probability 2.2 Important Discrete Distributions • Hypergeometric Distribution ◦ The hypergeometric model describes random sampling without replacement. ◦ A dichotomous population consists of 2 types of items (e. ◦ K of the N items are defective. ◦ A random sample of size n is taken. from a dichotomous population of size N . The number of defective transistors in the sample is a hypergeometric random variable. . A random sample of 10 transistors is selected from a box containing 100.

15.252.3 . (since N = 1000. hygepdf(3. Ans. 200 oranges are selected. Ans. Ans.1000. P (D = 3) = 15 985 3 197 1000 200 = . A crate of 1000 oranges contains 15 rotten ones. The number of rotten oranges selected D is hypergeometric. E[D] = 200(15)/1000 = 3. 0. ◦ Find the probability that exactly 3 rotten oranges are selected.0. K = 15 and n = 200) ◦ Find the mean number of defective transistors in the sample.200) (Matlab) ◦ Mean: E[D] = nK/N ◦ Find the mean number of rotten oranges in the sample.◦ Example b.

• Binomial Distribution ◦ The binomial model describes random sampling * without replacement. from an inﬁnite dichotomous population OR * with replacement.03) n = sample size (10) . of which 3 % are defective. A random sample of 10 transistors is selected from an assembly line. n x P (D = x) = p (1 − p)n−x x p = proportion defective (. The number of defective transistors D in the sample is a binomial random variable. from a ﬁnite dichotomous population ◦ Example c.

. ◦ Find the probability that exactly 3 rotten oranges are selected.015)3 (. with replacement.985) = 2. Ans.200..015) = 3.200.226 (Matlab) (R) binopdf(3.0. Find the mean and variance of the number of rotten oranges in the sample.985)197 = . .◦ Example d. V (D) = np(1 − p) = 200(. P (D = 3) = 200 3 (.96. The number of rotten oranges selected D is binomial.015) ◦ Mean: E[D] = np ◦ Variance: V (D) = np(1 − p) ◦ Example. E[D] = np = 200(. A crate of 1000 oranges contains 15 rotten ones.015)(. Ans. 200 oranges are randomly selected.015) dbinom(3.

• Poisson Distribution ◦ The Poisson distribution is often used as a model for the number of defects D in a manufactured item. E[D] = V (D) = λ . λxe−λ . 1. P (D = x) = x! x = 0. . . . 2.

3) (Matlab) (R) .4.737 poisscdf(5.3.3) dpois(5.3x /x! = . P (D = 5) = e−4.4.3) ppois(5.4.◦ Example e.35 /5! = .3) (Matlab) (R) Find the probability that the sports car has 5 or fewer surface defects. 5 P (D ≤ 5) = x=0 e−4.166 poisspdf(5. Ans. Find the probability that a randomly selected car has exactly 5 surface defects.3 4. The number of surface defects in the ﬁnish of a certain model of sports car can be modelled as a Poisson random variable with mean 4.4. Ans.3 4.

. . 3. What is the probability that exactly 10 capacitors have been sampled when the ﬁrst defective is selected? . 2. P (X = x) = p(1 − p)x−1. (p = probability that an item is defective. Capacitors are sampled for inspection sequentially from an assembly line. x = 1. .• Geometric Distribution ◦ Suppose items are sampled sequentially from a stable manufacturing process. It is known that the manufacturing process naturally produces 3% defective. The number of items sampled X when the ﬁrst defective item is selected can be modelled as a geometric random variable.) E[X] = 1/p V (X) = (1 − p)/p2 ◦ Example f.

0221 geopdf(10.03 = 33.03) (Matlab) (R) How large a sample is expected until the ﬁrst defective? Ans...03) (Matlab) (R) What is the probability that the ﬁrst defective is selected before the 10th capacitor has been selected? Ans.263 x=1 geocdf(9.03(..3 . 1/.03) dgeom(10. P (X = 10) = .. P (X < 10) = P (X ≤ 9) = 9 P (X = x) = 0.03) pgeom(9.Ans.97)10 = .

• Summary of Discrete Distributions ◦ Discrete random variables are used to model random counts: * of defectives sampled from a ﬁnite collection (hypergeometric) * of defectives sampled from an inﬁnite collection (binomial) * of defects (Poisson) * of sampled items until a defective occurs (geometric) .

• Normal Distribution ◦ the ‘bell-shaped’ curve * measurements concentrate near the mean µ * symmetric distribution * the variance σ 2 summarizes the variability – larger variance ⇒ measurements are more variable ◦ probabilities are read from a normal table.2. standardize ﬁrst: X −µ Z= σ P (X ≤ x) = P (Z ≤ x−µ ) σ .3 Important Continuous Distributions Measurements are often on a continuous scale.

15) (Matlab) (R) .820.95 P (X < x) = .15) pnorm(800.◦ Example a. The clockspeed of a type of silicon chip is a normal random variable with mean 820 MHz and standard deviation 15 MHz.95.645 so x = 845 MHz 15 norminv(.820.820.15) qnorm(. Ans.95.95 or P (Z < 15 x − 820 = 1.0912 normcdf(800. Find x so that x − 820 ) = . P (X < 800) = P (Z < 800 − 820 ) 15 = P (Z < −1. Find the probability that the clockspeed of a randomly selected chip is less than 800 MHz.820.15) (Matlab) (R) What is the 95th percentile of the distribution of the clockspeeds? Ans.33) = .

ﬁnd the probability that a randomly selected light bulb will fail in less than 1000 hours.1/.• Exponential Distribution ◦ A simple model for the time T until an electronic component fails is the exponential distribution: P (T ≤ t) = 1 − e−λt E[T ] = 1/λ V (T ) = 1/λ2 ◦ λ is called the failure rate.002) pexp(1000.1/.002) (Matlab) (R) .002 expcdf(1000. P (T < 1000) = 1 − e−2 = . since t = 1000 and λ = . ◦ Example b. Under the exponential model. The failure rate for a type of electric light bulb is .8647.002 per hour.

3. ◦ p = λ/n.03. D is approximately Poisson with λ = np = 0.2. ◦ D is approximately binomial with n = 10 and p = 3/100 = . The number D of defective transistors in a random sample of size 10 is a hypergeometric random variable.2a (cont’d).2a (cont’d).) .4 Some Useful Approximations • Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric ◦ Example 2. ◦ The approximation improves with n. ◦ The approximation improves as the lot size increases • Poisson Approximation to the Binomial ◦ Example 2. (p decreases with n.

97) = 0. ◦ The approximation improves as λ increases. ◦ The approximation is worse if p is very close to 0 or 1. • Normal Approximation to the Poisson ◦ Example 2.2a (cont’d).3 and σ 2 = np(1 − p) = 10(. D is approximately normal with mean µ = λ = 0. and variance σ 2 = λ = 0.291.• Normal Approximation to the Binomial ◦ Example 2.03)(. D is approximately Normal with µ = np = 0.2a (cont’d). .3.3. ◦ The approximation improves as the sample size increases.

Review of Statistics Sampling Distributions • Sampling from a Normal Distribution Suppose X1. . Z= . . ◦ Then X has a normal distribution with mean µ and variance σ 2/n. Xn are independent and normally distributed with mean µ and variance σ 2. . . ◦ If √ X −µ n σ then Z has a standard normal distribution. X2.

(n − 1)/n. . 1/n. i. ◦ X is a discrete random variable with values in {0. X2. . Xn are independent Bernoulli random variables with parameter p.e. . .• Sampling from a Bernoulli Distribution ◦ Suppose X1. . . 1}. P (X ≤ a) = P (X ≤ an) = µX = p 2 σX = n i p (1−p)n−i i=1 i [an] p(1 − p) n . . Then X is binomial with parameters n and p. . 2/n. P (Xi = 1) = p and P (Xi = 0) = 1 − p Set X = X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn.

. X2. Xn are independent Poisson random variables with mean λ. • Point Estimation of Process Parameters . . .• Sampling from a Poisson Distribution ◦ Suppose X1. . Then n X= i=1 Xi has a Poisson distribution with mean nλ. • Central Limit Theorem If X1. X2. ◦ X has mean λ and variance λ/n. . . then n(X − µ)/σ is approximately normally distributed with mean 0 and variance 1. The approximation improves as n increases. . . Xn are a random sample from a population with mean µ and √ variance σ 2.

• Statistical Inference for a Single Sample x − Zα/2σ/ n ≤ µ ≤ x + Zα/2σ/ n is a 1 − α conﬁdence interval for µ. X2. . E[X] = µ and E[S 2] = σ 2 Note that E[S] = σ.◦ If X1. . . . Xn are a random sample from a population with mean µ and variance σ 2. √ √ . then X and S 2 are point estimators for µ and σ 2.

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