CHAPTER 1: POPULATION GROWTH 1.

1 Introductory observations:
Human Population growth is the change in human population over time. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth. It is known that population growth and economic development are effecting the environment. The interplay between population growth, resource

depletion/environmental damage has been debated much. There are those who think that high population growth causes stress on environment, and there are those who put less blame on population and more blame on economic development, industrial and agricultural practices that result in environmental damage. The fact is that both population growth and unsustainable economic development are cause for concern especially in developing countries. There is relationship between population growth and environmental damage. We may recall famous Erlich Equation: I=P*A*T I= Impact on environment P=Population A=Affluence (consumption) T=Technology coefficient Steve Jones, head of the biology department at University College London, has said, "Humans are 10,000 times more common than we should be, according to the rules of the animal kingdom, and we have agriculture to thank for that. Without farming, the world population would probably have reached half a million by now." The world‘s population has significantly increased in the last 50 years, mainly due to medical advancements and substantial increases in agricultural productivity.

1

The recent rapid increase in human population over the past two centuries has raised concerns that humans are beginning to overpopulate the Earth, and that the planet may not be able to sustain present or larger numbers of inhabitants. The population has been growing continuously since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1400; at the beginning of the 19th century, it had reached roughly 1,000,000,000 (1 billion). Increases in medical technology have led to rapid population growth on a worldwide level. Current projections show a steady decline in the population growth rate, with the population expected to reach between 8 and 10.5 billion between the year 2040 and 2050. In May 2011, The United Nations increased the medium variant projections to 9.3 billion for 2050 and 10.1 billion for 2100.

The scientific consensus is that the current population expansion and accompanying increase in usage of resources is linked to threats to the ecosystem The Inter Academy Panel Statement on Population Growth, which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, called the growth in human numbers "unprecedented", and stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon

dioxide, global warming, and pollution, were aggravated by the population expansion. At the time, the world population stood at 5.5 billion, and low-bound scenarios predicted a peak of 7.8 billion by 2050, a number that current estimates show will be reached around 2022. India‘s population has crossed one billion mark. We are adding one more Australia in terms of POPULATION World reached: One billion in 1804 Two billion in 1927 Three billion in 1960 Four billion in1974 Five billion in 1987 Six billion in 2000 population It is expected to reach Seven billion in 2013 Eight billion in 2028 Nine billion in 2054

population each year. Have we devised programmers developmental that are

commensurate with this increase? If not, population factor alone would have significant contribution toward degradation of environment and

resource depletion. More people mean more pressure on resources, more consumption of energy, more production of wastes, including greenhouse gases-all having adverse effects
2

on environment. Though population growth has slowed down, it has to be stabilized at still lower level.

1.2 Meaning of human population:
The human population refers to the total human inhabitants of a specified area, such as a city, a country, a continent or the world, at a given time. In simple words, Total number of people living in a area at a given time is called its population.

1.3 Meaning of human population growth:

(Estimated size of human population from 10,000 BCE–2000 CE.)

Population growth is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. In biology, the term population growth is likely to refer to any known organism, but this article deals mostly with the application of the term to human populations in demography. In demography, population growth is used informally for the more specific

term population growth rate and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the human population of the world.

3

1.4 Determinants of Population growth:
Population growth is determined by four factors, births (B), deaths (D), immigrants (I), and emigrants (E). Using a formula expressed as: ∆P≡B-D+I-E In other words, the population growth of a period can be calculated in two parts,   natural growth of population (B-D) mechanical growth of population (I-E)

Mechanical growth of population is mainly affected by social factors, e.g. the advanced economies are growing faster while the backward economies are growing slowly even with negative growth.   Exponential population growth-dN/dT=rN Logistic population -d

1.5 concept of Population growth rate:
In demographics and ecology, population growth rate (PGR) is the fractional rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula:

(In the limit of a sufficiently small time period.) The above formula can be expanded to:   Growth rate = crude birth rate — crude death rate + net immigration rate, or, ∆P/P = (B/P) - (D/P) + (I/P) - (E/P),

4

(where P is the total population, B is the number of births, D is the number of deaths, I is the number of immigrants, and E is the number of emigrants). This formula allows for the identification of the source of population growth, whether due to natural increase or an increase in the net immigration rate. Natural increase is an increase in the native-born population, stemming from a higher birth rate, a lower death rate, or a combination of the two. Net immigration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants. The most common way to express population growth is as a ratio, not as a rate. The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. That is:

A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio indicates the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero

indicates that there were the same numbers of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths and migration is zero. However, a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. Equivalently, percent death rate = the average number of deaths in a year for every 100 people in the total population. A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than one indicates that the population of women is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of women is decreasing.

1.6 Excessive growth and decline:
Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is

called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes.
5

During the 750 years before the Industrial Revolution. Mercantilists argued that a large population was a form of wealth. Factors cited in the old theory included such social factors as later ages of marriage. 1. family sizes and birth rates decline.7 History of concern: Concern about human population growth is relatively recent in origin. and the decreased need of children in industrialized settings. populations have grown slowly despite high birth rates. This means that both the worry the theory generated about aging populations and the complacency it bred regarding the future environmental impact of population growth are misguided. after the standard of living and life expectancy increase.8 Demographic transition The theory of demographic transition held that. such areas may be considered "under populated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system. The latter factor stems from the fact that children perform a great deal of work in small-scale agricultural societies. 6 . 1. Between these two extremes sits the notion of the optimum population. due to the populationreducing effects of war. Throughout history. and intellectuals such as Thomas Malthus and physiocratic economists predicted that mankind would outgrow its available resources. and works less in industrial ones.Conversely. it has been cited to explain the decline in birth rates in industrializing regions. the world's population hardly increased. plagues and high infant mortality. it has been observed that after a certain level of development the fertility increases again. as new data has become available. However. the growing desire of many women in such settings to seek careers outside rearing and domestic work. which made it possible to create bigger markets and armies. remaining under 250 million. the world population had grown to a billion individuals. since a finite amount of land was incapable of supporting an endlessly increasing population. By the beginning of the 19th century.

so the population still rises as the more numerous younger generation approaches maturity.5. no possibility of migration.5.61) would then have numbers greater than 2.87 to 2. This will cause starvation.02 to 2. who posits that this phenomenon occurs when a country has a population larger than its carrying capacity.99 to 3. 7 .75 to 2. In strongly patriarchal nations.41 o North America .66 o South America .Another version of demographic transition is proposed by anthropologist Virginia Abernethy in her book Population Politics. the number of children born per woman decreased from 5. where she claims that the demographic transition occurs primarily in nations where women enjoy a special status. where she claims women enjoy few special rights. "Demographic entrapment" is a concept developed by Maurice King.09) and Sub-Saharan Africa (2.66 to 1.05.3.6.85 to 2.53 Excluding the observed reversal in fertility decrease for high development.47 to 1. instead of having a demographic transition.37 o Sub-Saharan Africa .2. Honorary Research Fellow at the University.43 o Middle East & North Africa . He claims that for example many sub-Saharan nations are or will become stuck in demographic entrapment.05.6.38 to 2.30 o Central America . the projected world number of children born per woman for 2050 would be around 2. and exports too little to be able to import food. a high standard of living tends to result in population Many countries have high population growth rates but lower total fertility rates because high population growth in the past skewed the age demographic toward a young age.99 o Oceania .49 o Asia (excluding Middle East) .7 to 5.65 between 1950 and 2005. A breakdown by region is as follows: o Europe .3. Only the Middle East & North Africa (2.6. For the world as a whole.

Population is stable but higher than in stage one. It defines four clear stages of population growth that nations often traverse in tandem with their socio-economic development. poor social development and limited access to health and contraceptive services. This transition from a stable population with high mortality and high fertility to a stable population with low mortality and low fertility is called demographic transition. but birth rates remain high due to high fertility. STAGE Death rates fall steeply as deaths from preventable causes are 2: reduced by better food supply and improved public health. STAGE Typically seen in less developed countries where birth rates are 1: high but a large number of people die of preventable causes leading to a stable population. 8 . STAGE Birth rates fall but population continues to grow because there are 3: a large number of people in the reproductive age group due to the high fertility of the previous generations. This often leads to a spurt in population. STAGE Countries achieve a stable population once again with low birth 4: and low death rates but at a higher level of social and economic development. "Demographic transition" is a model that describes population change over time. India is currently at the third stage.

the world population passed the six billion mark. the 8 billion mark in 2028. Four out of every five people in the world live in the developing world.472. By 2050. It is projected to grow to 8. The chart below shows past world population data back to the Year one and future world population projections through the year 2050. up from the present 81%.85 billion 1990 5. 9 . This gives a negligible population growth rate of 0.5 billion 1985 4. the developing world will have 88% of the world's population.3 billion 1995 5.1 World Population: Some Facts The world population was 6. Latest official current world population WORLD POPULATION GROWTH Year Population 1 200 million 1000 275 million 1500 450 million 1650 500 million 1750 700 million 1804 1 billion 1850 1. on the other hand.7 billion 1999 6 billion 2006 6.91 billion by 2050. for mid-year 2010. is estimated at 6.5 billion 2009 6. In 1999.5% per year. in Billion o World population is projected to cross the 7 billion mark in 2013. are estimated to be growing at the rate of 1. 2.Chapter-2 GLOBAL POPULATION SCENARIO The world population has grown tremendously over the past two thousand years.55 billion 1955 2. the 9 billion mark in 2054.30 billion in 2003.2 billion 1900 1.8 billion 1960 3 billion 1965 3.2% and a stable population in terms of numbers.3 billion 1970 3.852. The developing countries.7 billion 1975 4 billion 1980 4. World Population Growth. according to the United Nations Population Fund.823.8 billion 2011 7 billion 2025 8 billion 2043 9 billion 2083 10 billion estimate.6 billion 1927 2 billion 1950 2. The developed world has reached a stage where the number of births equal to the number of deaths.

By 2050. This is the shortest period of time in world history for a billion people to be added. 33 years to reach 3 billion in 1960. Bangladesh and Indonesia. Pakistan. nearly 90 percent of the world‘s population will be living in less developed nations Today. six countries account for half of the world‘s annual growth of 77 million: India. o World population nearly stabilizes at just above 10 billion after 2200.o It has taken just 12 years for the world to add this most recent billion people (6 billion). India alone accounts for about a fifth of the world‘s total population growth. African and Latin American countries and most of this growth is taking place in the urban areas of these countries. 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974 and 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987. Population Growth in More and Less Developed Countries The increase in world population growth is mainly contributed by less developed regions which include majority of Asian. o World population did not reach one billion until 1804. China. It took 123 years to reach 2 o billion in 1927. Nigeria. 10 .

11 .

3 billion.Women of Childbearing Age (15-49). The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to the future world population growth. Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century. even if levels of childbearing continue to decline. 12 . according to the UN. World Scenario The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.

In the medium variant. By contrast. assuming a decrease in average fertility rate from 2.2 Projections of world population growth o According to projections. Current United Nations predictions estimate that the world population will reach 9.3 billion population of underdeveloped countries is expected to increase to 7.0 billion around 2050. and some predictions putting the population in 2050 as high as 11 billion. the population of the more developed regions will remain mostly unchanged. An exception is the United States population.8 billion in 2050.0. at 1.5 down to 2. o In 2000-2005. which is expected to increase 44% from 305 million in 2008 to 439 million in 2050. o According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects report: o The world population is currently growing by approximately 74 million people per year. about half the level in 1950-1955 (5 children per woman).2.65 children per woman. the average world fertility was 2. where today's 5. o Almost all growth will take place in the less developed regions. 13 .2 billion. with the population reaching 9 billion in 2040. global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.05 children per woman. the world population will continue to grow until at least 2050.

Sweden. Vietnam 120 million. the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Nigeria. including Germany. Portugal. million. o During 2005-2050. United States. Democratic Republic of the Congo. United States 439 million. Ethiopia185 million. is expected to keep rising to reach 75 years in 2045-2050. Philippines 141 million. Spain. Egypt 125 million. These countries include Austria. Italy. o In 2000-2005. o Global life expectancy at birth.6 billion people. Denmark. Brazil 245 Democratic 189 million. net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. China 1. Pakistan.o During 2005-2050. In the more developed regions. Croatia. Japan and most of the successor States of the former Soviet Union. Singapore. the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Mexico 132 million. where life expectancy today is just under 50 years. China would be higher still in this list were it not for its One Child Policy. nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India. Germany.4 billion. o By 2050 (Medium variant). it is expected to be 66 years in 2045-2050. and China. is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005. Nigeria 259 million. Uganda. Among the least developed countries. Japan 14 . Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005-2050. Bangladesh. listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth. Bangladesh 258 million. India will have 1. o Birth rates are now falling in a small percentage of developing countries. Italy. Russia 109 million. while the actual populations in many developed countries would fall without immigration. Ethiopia. which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005. Pakistan 309 million. o The population of 51 countries or areas. United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom. Qatar. Indonesia 280 million. Canada. population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration.

2.6 (%) 23. and then stop to grow.3 (%) 17.8 (%) 24.6(%) 24.2 683. Tanzania 85 million.3(%) 21.3 Demographics of India: Census Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Population (in millions) 361. in the 21st century. Uganda 93 million.9 billion 5. In 2050.3 846.103 million. after a readjustment of the Third World and sanitation of the tropics.2 billion 674 million Turkey 99 million.1 Decadal growth (%) 13.6 1210. Iran 100 million. population will reach Africa 1.2 548. o Walter Greiling projected in the Latin America & 765 million Caribbean North America 448 million 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion.4 1028.6(%) 15 . Recent extrapolations from available figures for population growth show that the population of Earth will stop increasing around 2070.8 (%) 21.1 439. Kenya 85 million and Asia Europe United Kingdom 80 million.

o India‘s population is almost equal to the combined population of US.500.193. Indonesia. India's Population in 2001 Population of India in 1947 1.35 billion) people.000 males 50% of India's current population Currently.64% as compared to the previous which was 21.210. there are about 51 births in India in a minute.350.193. Brazil.12% in 2001.02 billion 350 million o India. the crown of the world's most 16 .044.422 (1. o For the first time after 1921.5 million) 940 females per 1.21 billion) 623. o The figures show that India represents almost 17. o In just 10 years India has added 181 million which is total population of Brazil. o With the population growth rate at 1.000 (623.7 million) 586.Current Population of India in 2011 Total Male Population in India Total Female Population in India Sex Ratio Age structure 0 to 25 years 1.4% of the world.21 billion) people is the second most populous country in the world.700. with 1.210. Bangladesh.58%. which means one out of six people on this planet live in India while china is home for 19.422 (1.53 billion people by the end of 2030. India‘s population growth rate has declined to 17.605 (1.000 (586. while China is on the top with over 1. Although. Pakistan and Japan (1-214 billion). India is predicted to have more than 1.5% of the world's population.

has brought tremendous results for the latter.000 population. o Most populated states   Uttar Pradesh with 199. rapid decline in death rates or mortality rates and immigration from Bangladesh and Nepal. o sex ratio improved from 933 in 2001 to 940 in 2011.4 deaths/1.populous country is on China's head for decades. o Least populated state. failed to achieve the ultimate goal and the population of India since getting independence from Britain in 1947 increased almost three times. Haryana and Chhattisgarh together make up 2% of total Indian population. India is all set to surpass china‗s position by 2030.72 children born/woman (NFHS-3. the contraceptive usage more than tripled and the fertility rate more than halved. o Fertility rate is 2. 2008) and Infant mortality rate is 30. The policy claims to 17 .4 million which is 9% if India‘s population Punjab.Sikkim with 607688 population. illiteracy. 235. o The birth rate (child births per 1. high fertility rate. however. In fact India by launching the National Family Planning program in 1952 became the first country in the world to have a population policy. India started taking measures to stem the growth rate quite early.6 million populations which is 16% of India‘s population. Some of the reasons for India's rapidly growing population are poverty. 53.000 people per year) is 22. Whereas India has missed almost all its targets to bring the rate of population growth under control. The family planning program yielded some noticeable results. Maharashtra with 112. bringing down significantly the country's fertility rate.) while death rate (deaths per 1000 individuals per year) is 6.15 deaths/1. 67.000 population (2009 est.8% in about 5. o About 72.2% of the population lives in some 638. More than 50% of India's current population is below the age of 25 and over 65% below the age of 35. China's 'One Child Policy' in 1978.000 live births (2009 estimated). In 19652009.000 villages and the rest 27. o Most populated among union territories is Delhi with 1.22 births/1. Alarmed by its swelling population. The efforts did produce positive results.480 towns and urban agglomerations.

have prevented between 250 and 300 million births from 1978 to 2000 and 400 million births from 1979 to 2010. 18 .

1 More pressure on available resources: All means of satisfying human needs. Large percentages of earth‘s surface is covered by water. forests. any real advances in well-being and the quality of life are negated by further population growth. fiber and associated materials. and used for human habitation. The world's current and projected population growth calls for an increase in efforts to meet the needs for food. water. 3. energy-or even man himself-are considered as resources as well as resource creating factors. intact. Many countries lack adequate supplies of basic materials needed to support their current population. Natural components like land. 1)Availability of land: land is the most vital resource as it will be used for crops and other biological materials needed for food. dedicated to agriculture. 19 . more production of wastes.Chapter-3 Implications of human population growth More people mean more pressure on resources. technology and education. A global concern has been whether the present rate of global population growth will be sufficient to meet up the resource needs for mankind‘s survival and comfort? Thus there lies the quest for sustainable use of resources to meet up the ever increasing needs of human populations. under conversion. massive efforts are needed to keep social and economic conditions from deteriorating further. Recent technological innovations helped a lot in solving the problems of resource depletion at a faster rate. including green house gases-all having adverse effects on environment. more consumption of energy. In the poorest countries. wildlife. While humans ourselves occupy only 0. medicine. fodder. minerals. Thus ‗resources‘ are means for attaining individual and social welfare. health care. water.5% 0f the earth‘s land area. at a given time and place are ‗resources‘. Rapid population growth can affect both the overall quality of life and the degree of human suffering on Earth. so our effects are felt on one quarter of the land.

Thus.15% in frozen ice form and the remaining 0.3 billion [hectares] — roughly 26 percent of the land area. 8. or have created large dam and dike systems. densely populated cities will use vertical farming to grow food inside skyscrapers. Available fresh water resources are very limited. per capita availability of land in the country is 0. agriculture and industry. while 2. 2)Inadequate fresh water: water is the most vital resource for life approximately 97. remains intact.4%of the world total. Usable land may become less useful through salinization. for example. less than one quarter.41% hectares in the USA. By most estimates. primarily in the Arctic and the deserts.707 square kilometers).43 hectare in USSR and 0. erosion. the building of hydroelectric dams. agriculture has displaced one-third of temperate and tropical forests and one-quarter of natural grasslands. who point out that the Earth's population of roughly 6. Furthermore. at least half of cultivable land is already being farmed. However. creating further problems. As such.65% remains as fresh water either on surface or as ground water.7 20 . Some countries. The World Resources Institute states that "Agricultural conversion to croplands and managed pastures has affected some 3.98 hectares in china.2% water lies in oceans as salt water. which reclaim land from the sea to increase their total land area. deforestation. As a result the fresh water reserve depletes day by day too. The requirement of clean water is about 2. The development of energy sources may also require large areas. The notion that space is limited has been decried by skeptics.000 square miles or 696. such as the United Arab Emirates and particularly the Emirate of Dubai have constructed large artificial islands. but supports a population of 17. The demand for fresh water has increased day by day and will increase with the rapid growth of population. desertification.48 hectare as against 4. and urban sprawl. All totaled.8 billion people could comfortably inhabit an area comparable in size to the state of Texas.India has a total land area of 2." Forty percent of the land area is under conversion and fragmented. the population of India is concentrated in well watered plains. the impact of humanity extends over a far greater area than that required simply for habitation. Some scientists have said that in the future. available useful land may become a limiting factor.5 % of the world. in the United States (about 269. and there are concerns that the remaining reserves are greatly overestimated. like the Netherlands.

say. Population optimists have been criticized for failing to take into account the depletion of the petroleum required for the production of fertilizers and fuel for transportation.. In addition energy consumption pattern also changes with time. If the current rate of exploitation continues and if there is no further new exploration of deposit then our mining activity might be completed by 2020. use energyexpensive desalination to solve the problem of water shortages. M. For instance in urban area transport. estimated annual energy availability lies somewhat between 2. Methods of manufacturing fertilizers from garbage.50. India has more than 22 types of minerals in considerably high quantity. and agricultural waste by using thermal depolymerization have been discovered.000 MW. like Saudi Arabia. industry and household requirements are considerably to be more prominent than rural areas. of which over 90% obtained from conventional sources." Approximately half of the oil produced in the United States is refined into gasoline for use in internal combustion engines. In his 1992 book Earth in the Balance. Optimists counter that fossil fuels will be sufficient until the development and implementation of suitable replacement technologies—such as hydrogen or other sources of renewable energy—occurs.. viz. 6 billion cu. ". Al Gore wrote. only for drinking use as well as sewage Inadequate fresh water for drinking water treatment and effluent discharge. natural gas or nuclear materials. a twenty-five-year period. oil. it ought to be possible to establish a coordinated global program to accomplish the strategic goal of completely eliminating the internal combustion engine over. The relative energy requirement in urban and rural areas from various sources varies distinctly. as well as other fossil fuels. 21 .liter per day. In India. In most cases.. they are already mined out partially. sewage.. As per estimates made by Geological Survey of India. Some countries. 3)More consumption of energy resources: more people mean more consumption of energy resources like fossil fuels. coal. thus the global requirement is about purpose. 4) Depletion of mineral resources: a variety of both metals and non metals were exploited by the mankind over centuries..

Most poor children and adults suffer from severe vitamin and mineral deficiencies. Many countries rely heavily on imports however. until approximately 2030 or 2050)". assuming declining population growth rates. hunger. There are millions of starving people throughout the world. almost half of all children under age of 5 suffer from malnutrition. Yemen and Israel import more than 90%. France. In recent decades the US alone supplied almost half of world grain exports. price rise. Thailand and the USA . Australia. These deficiencies cause failure of senses. the 22 . However. Egypt and Iran rely on imports for 40% of their grain supply. from 5 to 20 million people die of starvation across the world. the observed figures for 2007 show an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world. Some scientists argue that there is enough food to support the world population.supply 90% of grain exports. every year. mental disorders and damage to vital organs.. The rich people are exploiting more resources than poor people. As per estimates.competition for resources. and mass starvation. In Ethiopia. The poorest people in developing countries do not get adequate calories to develop their health properly. particularly if sustainability is taken into account. And just 6 countries Argentina.2 Social implications of human population growth: 1)Food Scarcity: The population growth leading to population explosion causes severe economic disparities and gives birth to . The gap between the rich and the poor has increased due to population growth. 923 million in 2007 versus 832 million in 1995.3. Canada. A 2001 United Nations report says population growth is "the main force driving increases in agricultural demand" but "most recent expert assessments are cautiously optimistic about the ability of global food production to keep up with demand for the foreseeable future (that is to say. malnutrition. but critics dispute this. Malnutrition is one of the most common effects of these problems.

and their distribution is not necessarily a zero-sum game. that while the number of undernourished people in the developing countries has declined by about three million. there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents. Food per person increased during the 1961-2005 period.932 to 2. However. grain production increased by over 250%. others question these statistics. "There are an estimated 800 million undernourished people and more than a billion considered overweight worldwide. and the percentage of people in those countries who were malnourished fell from 45% to 18%. For example. The number of people who are overweight has surpassed the number who are undernourished. without the Revolution. daily Calorie consumption in poor countries increased from 1. The amounts of natural resources in this context are not necessarily fixed. a smaller proportion of the populations of developing countries is undernourished today than in 1990–92: 17% against 20%. Global perspective about growing need for food Growth in food production has been greater than population growth. This suggests that Third World poverty and famine are caused by underdevelopment. to 1. not overpopulation. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations states in its report The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006. has one of the highest rates of obesity in the world. due to the Revolution and the fact that more and more land is appropriated each year from wild lands for agricultural purposes. FAO's projections suggest that the proportion of hungry people in developing countries could be halved from 1990-92 levels to 10% by 23 . In a 2006 news story. as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world.02 billion in 2009." The U.S. World food production per person was considerably higher in 2005 than 1961.The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that. Furthermore.650.more recent FAO estimates point out to an even more dramatic increase. From 1950 to 1984. As world population doubled from 3 billion to 6 billion. MSNBC reported. the worldwide production of food had steadily increased up until 1995.

falling energy sources and food shortages will create the "perfect storm" by 2030. There is more food available and still more could be produced without excessive upward pressure on prices. and more people are malnourished in sub-Saharan Africa this decade than in the 1990s. In sub-Saharan Africa. The fungus has spread from Africa to Iran. if current trends of soil degradation and population growth continue the continent might be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025. world price sat over $100 a barrel. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain food security in a world beset by a confluence of "peak" phenomena. He said food reserves are at a 50-year low but the world requires 50% more energy. A virulent wheat disease could destroy most of the world's main wheat crops. Africa In Africa. global population growth. The knowledge and resources to reduce hunger are there.2015. according to UNU's Ghana-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa. the number of malnourished people grew to 203.4 million 10 24 . An epidemic of stem rust on wheat caused by race Ug99 is currently spreading across Africa and into Asia and is causing major concern. Hunger and malnutrition kill nearly 6 million children a year. peak water. and may already be in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2. according to the UK government chief scientist. peak grain and peak fish. and growing consumer demand in China and India Food riots have recently taken place in many countries across the world. climate change. food and water by 2030." As of 2008. namely peak oil. the price of grain has increased due to more farming used in bio fuels. peak phosphorus. according to a report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization.3 billion people. The world is richer today than it was ten years ago. The FAO also states "We have emphasized first and foremost that reducing hunger is no longer a question of means in the hands of the global community. Growing populations. leaving millions to starve. the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned.5 million people in 2000-02 from 170. What is lacking is sufficient political will to mobilize those resources to the benefit of the hungry. loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development.

Virginia Abernethy. In 2001. and shrink in times of scarcity. the world's most populous country. including Germany. a professor from Cornell University. Italy. due to over extraction of groundwater in the North China plain. Proponents of this theory argue that every time food production is increased. Japan and most of the states of the former Soviet Union.4% of people in sub-Saharan Africa were living in extreme poverty. More recent data indicate China's grain production peaked in the mid 1990s. human populations predictably grow and shrink according to their available food supply – populations grow in an abundance of food. Some human populations throughout history support this theory. Other Countries Nearly half of India's children are malnourished. Alan Thorn hill. some developed countries have both a diminishing population and an abundant food supply. China. This shows that when one limits their scope to the population living within a given political 25 . Asia One survey says that nearly half of India's children are malnourished. Russell Hoffenberg and author Daniel Quinn propose that like all other animals. the population grows. Critics of this idea point out those birth rates are lowest in the developed nations. Population increased after the Neolithic Revolution and an increased food supply. In fact. believes a senior government adviser. According to a 2004 article from the BBC. which also have the highest access to food. according to recent government data. Populations of hunter-gatherers fluctuate in accordance with the amount of available food. Population as a function of food availability Thinkers such as David Pimentel. This was followed by subsequent population growth after subsequent agricultural revolutions.years earlier says The State of Food Insecurity in the World report. suffers from an obesity epidemic. is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005. Japan may face a food crisis that could reduce daily diets to the austere meals of the 1950s. 46. The United Nations projects that the population of 51 countries or areas.

as is the net quantity of human food produced . Mexico. and India) owing to widespread over drafting beyond sustainable yields. Other countries affected include Pakistan. But with a population expanding by 4 million a year. as in Germany's recent population trends . human populations do not always grow to match the available food supply. Food moves across borders from areas of abundance to areas of scarcity. Iran. and Mexico.clearly other factors are at work: contraceptive access.000 years. Egypt.boundary. Nevertheless.a pattern that has been true for roughly 10. may soon do the same in larger countries. since the human development of agriculture. Most of the 3 billion people projected to be added worldwide by mid-century will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages. cultural norms and most importantly economic realities differ from nation to nation. The water tables are falling in scores of countries (including Northern China. Only Pakistan remains self-sufficient. Additionally. That some countries demonstrate negative population growth fails to discredit the theory. After China and India. China has developed a grain deficit. 26 . Four of these already import a large share of their grain. This effect has contributed in driving grain prices upward. there is a second tier of smaller countries with large water deficits — Algeria. Desalination is also considered a viable and effective solution to the problem of water shortages. this hypothesis is not so simplistic as to be rejected by a single case study. Even with the over pumping of its aquifers. the US. Food scarcity As a result of water deficits Water deficits. which are already spurring heavy grain imports in numerous smaller countries. Iran. One suggested solution is for population growth to be slowed quickly by investing heavily in female literacy and planning services. Additionally. and Pakistan. This over drafting is already leading to water scarcity and cutbacks in grain harvest. on the global scale the world population is increasing. it will also soon turn to the world market for grain. such as China or India. many of these countries are major exporters of food. if technology is not used.

and Eastern Europe. Green lands in urban areas and even sea beeches have been reclaimed for housing and industrial purposes. Overpopulation. They often suffer from malnutrition. housing. demographic trends and welfare incentives are primary causes of poverty. are being seriously encroached. it is not overpopulated. areas around monuments. generate more waste etc. degradation of environment. inadequate education and employment. inability to meet the cost of living. They always struggle for shelter and clothing. clothing.2) Overcrowding: There is limited habitable place on the earth. In developed countries. and mental illness. Many of these countries have entered the second stage of Demographic Transition in which a high birth and reduced death rates along with a rising life expectancy accelerates the population growth. drink more water. Lives in developing countries represent a picture of misery. famine. unequal distribution of resources. Asia. People are migrating towards cities in search of jobs and cities are becoming overcrowded. Latin America. 4) Increasing Consumption: It is a simple truth that more people consume more food. need more houses to live. We may take the example of United States of America. epidemics and war. make more noise. poverty is the lack of the basic human needs like food. Increasing crowd in cities is aggravating the problem of pollution and insanitation leading to the spread of epidemics. wear more clothes. Semi-urban lands and cultivable lands near cities have already gone under construction of houses. crime. hunger and poverty. disease outbreaks. and health services. need more medicines for cure. Even government lands like railway platforms. and parks etc. It has been observed by ecologists the world over that powerful people and 27 . The overpopulation has caused severe stress on land which has further stressed forests and agricultural areas. The world‘s poorest people are found in Africa. 3) Poverty: Conditions of having insufficient resources or income are called as poverty. it consumes about 40% of resources of the world alone and produces not less than 21 % of the world‘s carbon dioxide which is a green-house gas. In its extreme form. drinking water. Though. poverty has caused drug dependence. Some countries of the world have nearly stabilized their population but their life style has become consumption based. create more pollution.

Play Grounds. One can see long lines of people standing for hours for their works. column or statue of historical importance built-in the past to remind future generations about a famous person or event. Community Halls. According to United Nations the world‘s richest 20% of population consumes about 86% of resources of the world. More people require more use of available facilities. Most of our monuments and old government buildings are being badly encroached by people who after sometime try to become owners of those areas. 5) Encroachment on Monuments : A monument is a building. Parks. abandoned railway buildings and on spaces left around historical monuments. Hospitals and even roads are some common social facilities that are facing heavy stresses due to population explosion. People who migrate from rural areas and work in cities often face difficulties and most of them spend their nights as homeless. But facilities may be limited. Bus Stops. 6) Stress on Common Social Facilities: We need facilities and facilities both on home front and on social front. Thus. So. Merely. This is illegal and criminal attitude. the population growth and the changing pattern of consumption are responsible for the severe stress on environment. this condition is the by-product of the explosion of population. Railway Junctions. 28 . increase in the rate of consumption at one end is causing an increase in hunger and crime at the other end.developed nations consume more resources than weak and poor people and developing or under developing countries. 20% of the world‘s population lives in developed and richest countries. Thus. Gradually. All these social facilities are often heavily polluted due to careless practices of human beings. there may be a great rush and competition for availing facilities causing severe stresses on those facilities. There is heavy traffic on roads round the clock. they build temporary houses on those places and start keeping their families there. So is happening with most of our uncared monuments today. Some of them start business works on those places and gradually a colony of such persons is established. However. They take shelter on pavements.

rich countries with high population densities do not have famine. malnutrition and inadequate. excessive air and water pollution. water supply.g. starvation and diseases. basic education etc. inaccessible. malnutrition or poor diet with ill health and diet-deficiency diseases (e. Some persons draw most of the supply water through electric pumps and all the other inhabitants of the area go without water. those services have become unable to perform properly. 3. or non-existent health care. It results in human threats including the evolution and spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria diseases. As a result. discharge of raw sewage and solid waste disposal. the poor are more likely to be exposed to infectious. rickets).  Intensive factory farming to support large populations.  Increased chance of the emergence of new epidemics and pandemics For many environmental and social reasons.  Starvation. many people in our societies have lost civic sense. including overcrowded living conditions. maintenance of drainage systems. care of animals (dogs and cattle) on roads. Over population has caused severe stress on civic services. and new viruses that infect humans. On the other hand. Rich countries with high population densities have low rates of infant mortality.   Low life expectancy in countries with fastest growing populations Unhygienic living conditions for many based upon water resource depletion. However.  High infant and child mortality. waste disposal. It has excessive load of work on bodies providing civic services.3 Health implications of human population growth Population growth leads to malnourishment. community health care.7) Stress on Common Civic Services: Services provided by municipalities or municipal corporations to civilians are called as civic services. High rates of infant mortality are caused by poverty. this problem can be 29 . Those services include cleanliness. However. Some of them drop their domestic wastes (including plastics) into drains or throw away garbage on roads.

reduced with the adoption of sewers. more fertilizers and more pesticides. More agricultural production demands two things – (i) (ii) more cultivable land. Application of fertilizers and pesticides makes the soil infertile. more consumption of fossil fuels and more pollution of air. overuse and misuse of physical resources increased manifold due to the growth of human population. More cultivable land has been made available by clearing forests and by reclaiming wet lands. soil and minerals. The Ecological Impacts of population growth includes .living and non-living. air. More population means more space to construct houses and availability of more consumer goods. Thus growth of population leads to pollution of air. The utilization. more population means more mouths to eat food which requires more agricultural production. land and water. Pakistan installed sewers. As it has been told earlier. and Advanced agriculture. land and water. 3. Different types of pollutions are causing a number of problems in the physical environment that are further affecting the biological 30 . its infant mortality rate fell substantially. and all aspects. It also requires more means of transport. Thus ecology relates to environment and ecological impacts of population means impacts of population on environment and its various components. o Impacts of Population Growth on the Physical Environment Physical environment means – non living environment or the land. water. Clearing of forests has its own serious impacts and the environment on the whole gets imbalanced.4 Environment and ecological implications of human population growth The scientific study of inter-relationships among organisms and between organisms. For example. ponds and green belts. of their environment is called as Ecology.impacts of population growth on Physical and Biological components of the natural environment. after Karachi. Advanced agriculture requires utilization of more water.

And. As for biological environment. Human Population has stressed most of the biological systems. all the biological components are bound to suffer the consequences. Therefore from above discussion it is clear that population growth leads to deforestation. Thus habitats of varieties of birds. Let us have some glimpses of these imbalanceso For expanding cultivable land. o Frequent water crises in many parts of the world caused failure of agriculture leading to hunger and starvation. 31 . It is also called as slash and burn cultivation. Jhooming is the practice of growing crops after clearing forest land by burning the vegetation. Vast varieties of plants and animals have been killed due to water crises. hence most of the natural processes have been altered seriously that have caused serious imbalances in ecosystems. Since most of the components of the physical components are under serious threat due to population explosion. Ecosystem is the smallest unit of the biosphere. Frequent water crises often lead to migration of people and animals to other places thus causing overload on the resources of those areas. o Impacts of population growth on biological environment The population explosion of earlier days and of present day also.environment seriously. has already caused and still it is causing serious impacts on the global environment. forests have been cleared on large scales. depletion of fossil fuels and environmental pollution. These destructive activities of human being have driven away many species of wild animals and have caused extinction up to considerable level. There are other reasons of forest destruction also. Illegal timber trade by timber mafias and local pressure for fire wood have further depleted our forest resources. Forests have also been cleared for setting up of industries and for urbanisation. Intensive agriculture and mining have also caused large scale destruction of habitats. and other animals have been destroyed through human activities. comprising flora and fauna as well as biological diversity. Some of those reasons are forest fires and Jhooming.

5 degrees Celsius in the next century. The ecological impact of rising oceans would include increased flooding. if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue. however. o Generation of waste due to increasing consumer culture and population explosion is causing spread of serious epidemics and deaths of people in many parts of the world. shrinking forests. induced by population growth has caused serious depletion of biodiversity in many parts of the world. Global warming due to increasing use of fossil fuels (mainly by the developed countries) could have serious effects on the populous coastal regions in developing countries. rising temperatures. unnecessary and unbalanced consumption the consequences of which could adversely affect both the developed and the developing countries. coastal erosion. they cause massive ecological damage by the wasteful.o Poaching and killing of wild animals and illegal trade in their body parts have already caused extinction of several species of animals. Patterns of precipitation 32 . Bio. and salivation of aquifers and coastal crop land and displacement of millions of people living near the coast. their food production and essential water supplies. loss of plant and animal species. The panel's best estimate scenario projects a sea-level rise of 15 to 95 centimeters by 2100. In many developing countries continued population growth has resulted in pressure on land. The review on "Promotion of sustainable development: challenges for environmental policies" in the Economic Survey 1998-99 had covered in detail the major environmental problems.diversity is the species richness in a particular area and its depletion causes serious losses of a number of factors that are vital for running up of ecosystems. Developed countries are less densely populated and contribute very little to population growth. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that. the mean global surface temperature will rise from 1 to 3. o Habitat destruction and overexploitation of resources etc. fragmentation of land holding. the present review will only briefly touch upon some of the important ecological consequences of demographic transition. collapsing fisheries. and policy options for improvement. The already densely populated developing countries contribute to over 95% of the population growth and rapid population growth could lead to environmental deterioration.

Rapid population growth. soil erosion. Encroachment on habitat for rail and road construction thereby fragmenting the habitat. Tropical deforestation and destruction of mangroves for commercial needs and fuel wood. soil salinity and low productivity. developmental activities either to meet the growing population or the growing needs of the population as well as changing lifestyles and consumption patterns pose major challenge to preservation and promotion of ecological balance in India. which combined with increased average temperatures. Intense grazing by domestic livestock Poaching and illegal harvesting of wildlife. Some of the major ecological adverse effects reported in India include: Severe pressure on the forests due to both the rate of resource use and the nature of use. high use of chemical fertilizers pesticides and weedicides. water stagnation.000 ha to 453. Degradation of coastal and other aquatic ecosystems from domestic sewage.are also likely to change.000 ha in the last 50 years. Slower population growth in developing countries and ecologically sustainable lifestyles in developed countries would make reduction in green house gas emission easier to achieve and provide more time and options for adaptation to climate change. High level of biomass burning causing large-scale indoor pollution. The country‘s mangrove areas have reduced from 700. fertilizers and industrial effluents. 33 . adverse effect on species diversity: Conversion of habitat to some other land use such as agriculture. pesticides. forestry operation. Greenhouse gas emissions are closely linked to both population growth and development. could substantially alter the relative agricultural productivity of different regions. Increase in commercial activities such as mining and unsustainable resource extraction. urban development. Increase in agricultural area. The per capita forest biomass in the country is only about 6 tons as against the global average of 82 tons. Some 70-80 % of fresh water marshes and lakes in the Gangetic flood plains have been lost in the last 50 years.

this. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992) acknowledged population growth. Contrary to the Malthusian predictions. Ensuring that there is no further deterioration depends on choices made by the population about family size. monitoring and evaluation stages. Disturbance from increased recreational activity and tourism causing pollution of natural ecosystems with wastes left behind by people.Over fishing in water bodies and introduction of weeds and exotic species. Availability of appropriate technology and commitment towards ensuring sustainable development is increasing throughout the world.5 Economic implications of human population growth Population growth and its relation to economic growth has been a matter of debate for over a century. implementation. industrial and agricultural uses leading to increased river pollution and decrease in self-cleaning properties of rivers. it might be possible to initiate steps to see that the natural carrying capacity of the environment is not damaged beyond recovery and ecological balance is to a large extent maintained. These countries have been able to exploit the dynamics of demographic transition to achieve economic growth by using the human resources as the engine driving the economic development. Increasing water requirement leading to tapping deeper aquifers which have high content of arsenic or fluoride resulting health problems. life styles. improved employment 34 . in turn. rising income levels. result in reduction in per capita income and resources. It is imperative that the environmental sustainability of all developmental projects is taken care of by appropriate inputs at the planning. Because of these. The early Malthusian view was that population growth is likely to impede economic growth because it will put pressure on the available resources. changing technologies. environmental protection and equity. 3. increasing consumption pattern will all have adverse impact on environment. several of the East Asian countries have been able to achieve economic prosperity and improvement in quality of life in spite of population growth. This has been attributed to the increase in productivity due to development and utilization of innovative technologies by the young educated population who formed the majority of the growing population. Diversion of water for domestic. will result in deterioration in quality of life.

Poverty and inflation are aggravated by bad government and bad economic policies.6Urbanization The proportion of people in developing countries who live in cities has almost doubled since 1960 (from less than 22 per cent to more than 40 per cent). underutilization of labor : as there is large number of population. Urbanization is projected to continue well into the next century. there will be low savings. it is not possible to make optimal utilization of human resource Unemployment: with the increase in population there is more pressure on employment services and it is not possible to give employment to large number of humans. By 2030. Many countries with high population densities have eliminated absolute poverty and keep their inflation rates very low.with adequate emoluments has promoted saving and investment which in turn stimulated economic growth. Following are the adverse effects of population growth on the Indian Economy:  Adverse effects on savings: with population growth.1 billion people will live in cities. India shares this global trend toward urbanization (Figure 8). 35 . then this leads to adopt poor means of life.  Poverty coupled with inflation in some regions and a resulting low level of capital formation. 3.  adverse effect on quality of life: population growth leads to lower standard of living as more income is needed to fulfill the demands or daily needs of more members in the family but if there is less income and family is large in size. while in more developed regions the urban share has grown from 61 per cent to 76 per cent. as with the same income sources one has to spent more as number of people increases in family     unproductive investment Slow growth of Per Capita Income: per capita income will be less if there is population growth. it is expected that nearly 5 billion (61 per cent) of the world's 8.

By 1999. employment. The ever 36 . and most of these new "mega cities" are in developing regions.7% in 1950). reduction in family size and improvement in health indices. more than 10 per cent of the world's population will live in these cities (1.Globally. (18 in Asia. Better communication and transportation now link urban and rural areas both economically and socially creating an urban-rural continuum of communities with improvement in some aspects of lifestyle of both. India‘s urban population has doubled from 109 million to 218 million during the last two decades and is estimated to reach 300 million by 2000 AD. It is projected that there will be 26 mega cities by 2015. In 1960. As people have moved towards and into cities. Like many other demographic changes. Cities and towns have become the engines of social change and rapid economic development. only New York and Tokyo had more than 10 million people. of these five in India). these result in increase in age at marriage. Urbanization is associated with improved access to education. As a consequence cities are facing the problem of expanding urban slums. urbanization has both positive and negative effects. information has flowed outward. the number of mega cities had grown to 17(13 in developing countries). the number of cities with 10 million or more inhabitants is increasing rapidly. health care.

the number of rural poor has in fact increased due to the population growth. For instance. it is estimated that 320 million people are still living below the poverty line in rural India. Increasing automobiles add to air pollution. smaller healthier families and lead to more rapid population stabilization. There are substantial differences between the states in the proportion of rural and urban population (varying from almost 90 per cent in Assam and Bihar to 61 per cent in Maharashtra). These in turn result in poverty. All these have adverse effect on ecology and health. Urban population growth has outpaced the development of basic minimum services. offices and industries. Agriculture is the largest and one of the most important sectors of the rural economy and contributes both to economic growth and employment. Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product has declined over the last five decades but agriculture still remains the source of livelihood for over 70 per cent of the country‘s population.7 Rural population and their development Over seventy per cent of India‘s population still lives in rural areas. water supply. higher contraceptive use. A large proportion of the rural work force is small and consists of marginal farmers and landless agricultural laborers. family size preference and family planning options are now reaching formerly isolated rural populations. Though poverty has declined over the last three decades.increasing reach of mass media communicates new ideas. awareness about the glaring inequities in close urban setting may lead to social unrest. and prevent them from breaking out of the shackles of poverty. points of reference. sewerage and solid waste disposal are far from adequate. There is substantial under employment among these people. 3. including reproductive health. and fewer unwanted pregnancies. coupled with poor waste disposal facilities result in rapid environmental deterioration. increasing waste generation at home. Poverty persists in urban and per-urban areas. In States like 37 . But the rapid growth of urban population also poses some serious challenges. This can create demand for services for mothers and children. radio and television programmers that discuss gender equity. in many ways. Poor tend to have larger families which puts enormous burden on their meager resources. appreciated and sought. and available options are becoming more widely recognized. This phenomenon has affected health care. both wages and productivity are low. housing.

3. It is estimated that currently 430 million (8% of the global population) are living in countries affected by water stress. They would like better opportunities and more remunerative employment. if all the felt needs for health and family welfare services are fully met. in turn.8Water supply : In many parts of developed and developing world. vocational training and technical education are taken up on a large scale in order to generate productive employment in rural areas. Uttar Pradesh. educated population these efforts may prove to be inadequate to meet the increasing needs both in terms of type and quality of services. There are ongoing efforts to improve these. as a result 38 . it is imperative that programmers for skill development. by 2020 about one fourth of the global population may be facing chronic and recurring shortage of fresh water. awareness and better standard of living among the growing younger age group population would create the required consciousness among them that smaller families are desirable. prevents the development thus creating a vicious circle. water demand substantially exceeds sustainable water supply. population growth rates are much lower than in many other States. Low productivity of small land holders leads to poverty. resulting in increasing pressure on land and resulting land fragmentation. but with the growing aspirations of the younger. Rural poor have inadequate access to basic minimum services. Greater education. Those who are getting educated specially beyond the primary level. In States like Rajasthan. inadequate and poorly functional infrastructure. it will be possible to enable them to attain their reproductive goals. The entire gamut of existing poverty alleviation and employment generation programs may have to be restructured to meet the newly emerging types of demand for employment. lack of awareness. may not wish to do manual agricultural work. In this context. low energy intake and under nutrition. In India. water withdrawal is estimated to be twice the rate of aquifer recharge. and this. Bihar and Madhya Pradesh population is growing rapidly.Tamil Nadu where replacement level of fertility has been attained. because of poor connectivity. but the population density is high and so there is a pressure on land. In most of the states non-farm employment in rural areas has not grown very much and cannot absorb the growing labor force. achieve substantial decline in the family size and improve quality of life.

storage and its need based use part of every citizens life should be taken up. There is very little arable agricultural land which remains unexploited and in many areas. therefore. It is. improvement in purchasing power and changing dietary habits (shift to animal products) may further add to the requirement of food grains. It is estimated that the global population will grow to 9 billion by 2050 and the food production will double. 3. Thus.82 in 1950-51 to 200. It is a matter of concern that while the cereal production has been growing steadily at a rate higher than the population growth rates. a movement towards making water harvesting. the coarse grain and pulse production has not shown a similar increase. both lack of water and water logging could have adverse impact on India's food production. food production has kept pace with the population growth. Food grain production has increased from 50. Simultaneously. Consequently there has been a reduction in the per capita availability of pulses (from 60. 39 . Eventually. the food and nutrition security could become critical in many parts of the world especially in the developing countries and pockets of poverty in the developed countries. At the other end of the spectrum.7 grams in 1951 to 34 grams per day in 1996) and coarse grains.). agricultural technology improvement may not be able to ensure further increase in yield per hectare. Evolution of global and national food security systems has improved access to food. tapping deeper aquifers have resulted in larger population groups being exposed to newer health hazards such as high fluoride or arsenic content in drinking water.water tables are falling by one to three meters every year. imperative that research in biotechnology for improving development of food grains strains that would tolerate salinity and those which would require less water gets high priority.88 million tons in 1998-99 (Prov.9Food security Technological innovations in agriculture and increase in area under cultivation have ensured that so far. In India one of the major achievements in the last fifty years has been the green revolution and self-sufficiency in food production. in the next five decades. excessive use of water has led to water logging and increasing salinity in some parts of the country.

There has been a sharp and sustained increase in cost of pulses. Rising cost of pulses had a beneficial effect also. Coarse 40 . so that essential pulse requirement of growing population is fully met. so there is substantial decline in per capita pulses consumption among poorer segment of population. One of the benefits of this change is virtual elimination of pellagra which was widely prevalent among low income group population in Deccan Plateau whose staple food was sorghum. Over the last three decades the rising cost of pulses has made Kesari Dal more expensive than wheat or rice and hence it is no longer given to labourers as wages for work done. Over years the coarse grain production has remained stagnant and per capita availability of coarse grain has under gone substantial reduction. During the last few years the country has imported pulses to meet the requirement.Over the last five decades there has been a decline in the per capita availability of pulses. Consumption of staple diet of Kesari Dal led to crippling disease of neuro lathyrism. as a result the disease has virtually disappeared from Central India. This in turn could have an adverse impact on their protein intake. there has been a shift away from coarse grains to rice and wheat consumption even among poorer segment of population. Till eighties in central India wages of landless laborerswere given in the form Kesari Dal which was cheaper than cereals or coarse grains. The pulse component of the ―Pulses and Oil Seeds Mission‖ needs to receive a major thrust in terms of R&D and other inputs.

poor access to safe-drinking water. pellagra. may not only substantially bring down the subsidy cost without any reduction in calories provided but also improve "targeting" . States like Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh have initiated some efforts in this direction. blindness due to Vitamin-A deficiency and anaemia were major public health problems.10 Nutrition: At the time of independence the country faced two major nutritional problems. beri beri. There has been substantial reduction in moderate and severe under nutrition in children and some improvement in nutritional status of all segments of population. goitre. The country adopted multi-sect oral. Health and nutrition education emphasizing the importance of consuming these inexpensive rich sources of micronutrients will not result in any change in food habits unless there is harnessing and effective management of horticultural resources in the country to meet the growing needs of the people at affordable cost. Coarse grains which are locally produced and procured if made available through TPDS at subsidized rate. beri beri and blindness due to severe Vitamin-A deficiency have become rare. Another area of concern is the lack of sufficient focus and thrust in horticulture.as only the most needy are likely to access these coarse grains. multipronged strategy to combat the major nutritional problems and to improve nutritional status of the population. similar efforts need be taken up in other states also. marasmus. they can thus provide higher calories for the same cost as compared to rice and wheat.grains are less expensive than rice and wheat. Kwashiorkor. sanitation and health care. marasmus. Famines no longer stalk the country. availability of vegetables especially green leafy vegetables and yellow/red vegetables throughout the year at affordable cost both in urban and rural areas has remained an unfulfilled dream. Kwashiorkor. lathyrism. The other was chronic energy deficiency due to poverty. because of this. one was the threat of famine and acute starvation due to low agricultural production and lack of appropriate food distribution system. 41 . 3. low-literacy. these factors led to wide spread prevalence of infections and ill health in children and adults. During the last 50 years considerable progress has been achieved.

However. identify individuals/families with severe forms of CED and provide them assistance to overcome these problem. 4. it is a matter of concern that milder forms of Chronic Energy Deficiency (CED) and micronutrient deficiencies continue to be widely prevalent in adults and children. pulses. 3. Improving in purchasing power through employment generation and employment assurance schemes. Ensuring adequate agricultural production of cereals. Providing subsidized food grains through TPDS to the families below poverty line. Operational strategy to improve the dietary intake of the family and improve nutritional status of the rapidly growing adult population would include: 1. In view of the fact that population growth in India will continue for the next few decades. vegetables and other foodstuffs needed to fully meet the requirement of growing population. it is essential that appropriate strategies are devised to improve food and nutrition security of families. Exploring feasibility of providing subsidized coarse grains to families Below Poverty Line (BPL) Operational strategies to improve health and nutritional status of the growing numbers of women and children include: 42 . 2.

Nutrition education for (a) early initiation of lactation (b) protection and promotion of universal breast feeding (c) exclusive breast feeding for the first six months. if no improvement after 2 months refer to physician for identification and treatment of factors that might be responsible for lack of improvement. 43 . Intensive health education for improving the life style of the population coupled with active screening and management of the health problems associated with obesity. 6) Monitor for improvement in the identified undernourished infants.1) Pregnant and lactating women .4 times a day – appropriate help in ensuring this through family/community/work place support. c) screening for nutrition and health problems and appropriate intervention. children and mothers. c) immunization and health care.5 age group. unless there is specific reason supplementation should not be introduced before 6 months (d) immunization. a) screen by weighment to identify children with moderate and severe under nutrition b) provide double quantity supplements through ICDS. b) get appropriate cereal pulse . b) improve dietary intake to these children through the mid-day meal. 2) 0-6 months infants .vegetable based supplement fed to them at least 3 . 7) Nutrition education on varying dietary needs of different members of the family and how they can be met by minor modifications from the family meals. growth monitoring and health care. 3) Well planned nutrition education to ensure that the infants and children do a) continue to get breasted.screening to identify women with weight below 40 Kgs and ensuring that they/ their preschool children receive food supplements through Integrated Child Development Services Scheme (ICDS). 4) Children in the 0 . adequate antenatal intrapartum and neonatal care. 5) Primary school children: a) weigh and identify those with moderate and severe chronic energy deficiency.

Chapter-4 Mitigation measures While the current world trends are not indicative of any realistic solution to human population growth during the 21st century. local food markets. schools and at car parks (taxis / bus stands). the government has put policies in place that regulate the number of children allowed to a couple. there are several mitigation measures that have or can be applied to reduce the adverse impacts of population growth. ―The approval by Afghan President Hamid Karzai of the Shia Personal Status Law in March 2009 effectively destroyed Shia women‘s rights and freedoms in Afghanistan. All of these mitigations are ways to implement social norms. "The intervention can be widespread and done at a low cost. Other societies have already begun to implement social marketing strategies in order to educate the public on overpopulation effects. Religious and ideological opposition to birth control has been cited as a factor contributing to overpopulation and poverty. In societies like China. use strict measures to reduce birth rates. Under this law. fact sheets. and can be denied food if they do.1 Birth regulations Population growth is related to the issue of birth control.‖ All of these examples use principles of social psychology to show how a strong correlation to the damage to the planet caused by the rapid population growth." Such prompts work to introduce the problem so that social norms are easier to implement. A variety of print materials (flyers. Some leaders and environmentalists (such as Ted Turner) have suggested that there is an urgent need to strictly implement a China44 . sporting events. brochures. 4. Population growth is an issue that threatens the state of the environment in the mentioned ways in previous chapter and therefore societies must make a change in order to reverse some of the environmental effects brought on by current social norms. stickers) needs to be produced and distributed throughout the communities such as at local places of worships. like the People's Republic of China. some nations. Certain government policies are making it easier and more socially acceptable to use contraception and abortion methods. women have no right to deny their husbands sex unless they are ill. An example of a country whose laws and norms are hindering the global effort to slow population growth is Afghanistan.

with 86% of these deaths occurring in the sub-Saharan Africa region and 45 .000 women die annually of complications from pregnancy and abortion. Indira Gandhi. as long as she buys a license for any children beyond an average allotment that would result in zero population growth (ZPG). men with two children or more had to submit to sterilization. because this would help control and reduce population gradually." Birth credits would allow any woman to have as many children as she wants. Worldwide.like one-child policy globally by the United Nations. In the developing world. pills and intrauterine devices easily available. This program is still remembered and criticized in India. for example. which hampered Government program for decades. marketable birth license plan" he calls "birth credits. political opponents and ignorant men were also believed to have been sterilized. family planning. The actual cost of the credits would only be a fraction of the actual cost of having and raising a child. but many unmarried young men. nearly 40% of pregnancies are unintended (some 80 million unintended pregnancies each year). and is blamed for creating a public aversion to family planning. Urban designer Michael E. then the first child would be free. do not want another child or want to space their pregnancies. so these credits could not be hoarded by speculators. Extra credits would expire after a certain time. Officially. implemented a forced sterilization program in the 1970s. some 514. and the market would determine what the license fee for each additional child would cost. Arth has proposed a "choice-based. but they lack access to information. affordable means and services to determine the size and spacing of their families. 4. late Prime Minister of India. so the credits would serve more as a wake-up call to women who might otherwise produce children without seriously considering the long term consequences to themselves or society. If that allotment was determined to be one child. and birth control methods. and to make birth-control devices like male/female condoms. An estimated 350 million women in the poorest countries of the world either did not want their last child.2 Education and empowerment One option is to focus on education about overpopulation.

8 million infants die. Arthur C. Many authors. Eric Drexler. It may be possible for other parts of the Solar System to be inhabited by humanity at some point in the future. Geoffrey Landis of NASA's Glenn Research Center in particular has pointed out that "[at] cloud-top level. dollars) for the program. John S. including Carl Sagan. It was announced in June 2008 by the Minister of Health and Population Hatem el-Gabali. 1994) has projected a human population of five quintillion throughout the Solar System by 3000. even afford a gravitation almost exactly as strong as that on Earth (see colonization of Venus). Venus would. many because of malnutrition or preventable diseases. and Isaac Asimov. famous inventor of the futuristic concept of molecular nanotechnology. have argued that shipping the excess population into space is not a viable solution to human overpopulation. almost half of pregnancies were unintended. Venus is the paradise planet". Marshall Savage (1992. and Neptune. like also Saturn.South. Uranus. based on the concept that breathable air is a lifting gas in the dense Venusians atmosphere. 4.S. in the upper layers of their atmospheres. K. Gerard O'Neill suggested building space habitats that could support 30. Additionally. in 2001.000 times the carrying capacity of Earth using just the asteroid belt and that the Solar System as a whole could sustain current population growth rates for a thousand years.[243] Egypt announced a program to reduce its overpopulation by family planning education and putting women. The government has set aside 480 million Egyptian pounds (about 90 million U. has suggested in Engines of Creation that colonizing space will mean breaking the Malthusian limits to growth for the human species. Clarke.[242] In the United States. suggesting this could happen within a few centuries. as one could construct aerostat habitats and floating cities there easily.3 Extraterrestrial settlement In the 1970s. According to Clarke. especially from lack of access to clean drinking water. Freeman Dyson (1999) favors the Kuiper belt as the future home of humanity. In Mining the Sky. Lewis suggests that the resources of the solar system could support 10 quadrillion (1016) people. with the majority in the asteroid belt. "the 46 .

with most of the inhabitants being the direct descendants of the original colonists 47 . The problem for these authors is not the lack of resources in space (as shown in books such as Mining the Sky. Gerard O'Neill's calculations show that Earth could offload all new population growth with a launch services industry about the same size as the current airline industry. but the physical impracticality of shipping vast numbers of people into space to "solve" overpopulation on Earth. However.population battle must be fought or won here on Earth‖. A hypothetical extraterrestrial colony could potentially grow organically.

There is universal awareness about the need for these services. aware and likely to make optimal use of available facilities. education transition. 48 . . achieve the desired family size and enable the country to achieve population stabilization rapidly. there are ongoing economic transition. private and voluntary sectors. health transition and reproductive health transition. The focus of planners. If the population now has ready access to good quality services at affordable cost. Over the last five decades the country has built up a massive healthcare infrastructure for delivery of FW services to the population in the Government. program implementers and the people during the next two decades will have to be in achieving the synergy so that India can achieve rapid population stabilization. population growth is inevitable in the initial phases of the transition. If there is synergy between these transitions. Simultaneously.Chapter-5 Conclusion Demographic transition is a global phenomenon. improvement in economic social and human development. it will be possible for them to meet all their needs. All these affect human development. the transitions can be completed rapidly. For India the current phase of the demographic transition is both a challenge and an opportunity. there will be substantial improvement in human development and economic development. Demographic transition does not occur in isolation. In the next two decades the population growth will be mainly among the young adults who will be more literate. The opportunity is to utilize available human resources to achieve rapid economic development and improvement in quality of life. India is currently in the phase of demographic transition during which where it will be possible for the country to accelerate the pace of decline in fertility. The challenge is to ensure human development and optimum utilization of human resources. The RCH program envisages wider range of services and improvement in quality of services provided.

Energy &the Environment. 2. Publication. Rethinking the Environmental Impacts of Population.about.htm.com/od/populationgeography/a/populationgrow.John M. Environmental Science.org/wiki/Environmental_issues 4. New York. 3. Affluence and Technology [1] 3. Santra S. P-250. New Delhi. Santra S. http://geography.wikipedia.Bibliography Book: 1. Flowler. http://en.wikipedia.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/Population_Statistics.htm 49 . Ecology: Basic & Applied.D. 2004. M..).org/page111.org/wiki/Environmental_issues_in_India 5. http://geography.htm 2. http://geography.C. http://en.C.com/lr/demographics/15359/1 6.about. Websites: 1. 1994.. http://dieoff. McGraw Hill. Environmental Science: General Perspectives.1984. (2nd ed.

50 .

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful