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I. GDP
Khi nim

Gi tr th trng
quy v gi tin phi c s mua bn

ca tt c
ko tnh sn phm t tiu ko tnh kinh t ngm ko tnh ti sn ti chnh nh tnh l t cho thu

hng ha dch v cui cng


c ngi mua s dng di dng sn phm hon chnh Hng ha trung gian(dng sn xut ra hng ha khc) hng trung gian tn kho vn c tnh hin tng tnh trng khu hao

c sn xut ra
quan tm ti thi im sn xut ko bao gm hng qua s dng

trong mt nc
trong lnh th Vit Nam Phn bit vi GNP ko tnh hng nhp khu (khc vi CPI)

trong mt thi k

o lng Dng 3 phng php PP Gi tr gia tng (Value added) (gi tr sn lng gi tr hng u vo)
Vit Nam cng thm c thu hng nhp khu vo.

PP Chi tiu GDP = C + I + G + NX b C : tiu dng c nhn (tnh c hng trong nc v nhp khu)
Phn loi : hng lu bn : t, xe my hng bn lu bn : qun o hng khng lu bn : thc phm dch v

Xy dng v mua nh mi (tnh l u t t nhn)

I : u t trong nc = u t rng + khu hao ( u t thay th )


Gm : u t c nhvo kinh doanh; u t vo nh v u t hng tn kho

G : chi tiu Chnh ph


Khng bao gm cc khon tr cp vin tr (transfer payments - Tr)

NX : xut khu rng


NX>0 : thng d thng mi NX<0 : thm ht thng mi

NX = X IM

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Cc ch tiu khc
GNP = GDP + NFA
NFA : thu nhp yu t rng t nc ngoi

Sn phm quc dn rng NNP = GNP Dep Thu nhp quc dn Thu nhp c nhn Thu nhp kh dng NI = NNP Te (Te : thu gin thu rng) PI Yd = PI Tthu nhp c nhn

Phn bit Gross v Net Gross : tng - Net : rng Gross = Net + Dep. Tng = rng + khu hao VD : GNP = NNP + khu hao

Ch s iu chnh GDP
GDP danh ngha : GDPnt = qt . pt (tnh theo gi nm hin hnh) GDP thc t : GDPrt = qt . p0 (tnh theo gi nm gc)
n DGDP = GDP r

GDP

Dng tnh lm pht

Tc tng trng kinh t


g= GDPrt GDPrt 1 100% GDPrt 1

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II. CPI
o lng mc gi trung bnh ca gi hng ha dch v m mt ngi tiu dng in hnh mua. Chn nm c s. Xc nh gi hng ha cho nm c s q0 Tnh chi ph gi hng ca tng nm : Costt = q0 . pt T l so vi chi ph nm gc CPIt = Cost .100 (CPI0 = 100) 0 Tnh lm pht Lm pht l s gia tng lin tc mc gi chung theo thi gian. Tnh theo CPI hoc DGDP
t =
CPI t CPI t 1 100% CPI t 1 Cost t

t =

DG D Pt DG D Pt 1 100% DG DPt 1

So snh :
DGDP : tt c hng trong nc, gi hng thng xuyn thay i (loi ch s Passche) CPI : hng tiu dng trong nc v nhp khu, gi hng c nh (loi ch s Laspeyres)

Hn ch - nguyn nhn sai lch ( 3 loi) Lch do cht lng hng ha thay i VD: nm 2000 mt kg go gi 5000 nm 2007 mt kg go gi 10.000 gi tng gp i nhng go nm 2007 l go tm, cht lng hn go nm 2000. Lch do hng ha mi VD: u DVD ra i, ngi dn chuyn t dng CD sang DVD trong khi CPI vn tnh u CD. Lch do hiu ng thay th (chuyn sang tiu dng hng ha khc) VD: trong gi hng c : 10 kg tht ln v 10 kg tht b. Gi tht b nm nay tng gp i t 100.000 ln 200.000, chi ph cho gi hng tng ln mt lng tng ng. Nhng thc t ngi dn gim lng cu vi tht b, chuyn sang dng tht ln nn t chu s tc ng ca tng gi hn CPI phn nh. Li sut r= i Li sut thc t = li sut danh ngha t l lm pht

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III. TNG TRNG KINH T


Tng trng kinh t Mc sng
Vn nhn lc H

Nng sut Lao ng

Tch ly t bn K Ti nguyn thin nhin N Tri thc cng ngh T (*)


Yu t quyt nh trong di hn

Chnh sch thc y tng trng kinh t Chnh sch u t - Lm tng tch ly t bn, tng tin b cng ngh - Phn bit : u t trc tip : nc ngoi trc tip qun l v s dng vn u t gin tip : nc ngai ti tr vn, trong nc qun l vn ( cn h thng ti chnh mnh v minh bch ) Chnh sch thng mi t do - Tn dng u th ca mi nc - Hng ra xut khu, hi nhp khu vc v ton cu ha Chnh sch gio dc Quyn s hu v n nh chnh tr Kim sot dn s Nghin cu trin khai

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IV. THT NGHIP


Phn chia dn s :
C vic Tht nghip Ngoi lc lng lao ng khng c nhu cu lm vic Ngoi tui lao ng

Lc lng lao ng

T l tham gia lc lng lao ng = lc lng lao ng / trong tui lao ng T l tht nghip = Tht nghip / lc lng lao ng Khi suy thoi tht nghip tng v khi tng tng trng tht nghip gim. Phn loi Tht nghip
1. Tht nghip t nhin (gm 3 nhm)

Tht nghip tm thi : do qu trnh lun chuyn lao ng, tm vic lm


VD : sinh vin tt nghip tm vic

Tht nghip c cu : do s dch chuyn c cu kinh t, thay i cng ngh


ngi lao ng cn thi gian o to li

Tht nghip theo l thuyt c in : Nh phn tch KT Vi m 1, theo l thuyt c in : trn th trng lao ng ng cung v cu lao ng ct nhau ti mc mc lng cn bng, khi tt c mi ngi u c vic lm, tc l khng c tht nghip. Nhng thc t mi nn kinh t lun lun c tht nghip, l gii iu , l thuyt c in a ra 3 l do vi nguyn tc chung : mc lng trn th trng cao hn mc lng cn bng khin cung lao ng vt cu lao ng, gy ra tht nghip. - Lut tin lng ti thiu: Chnh Ph t ra tin lng ti thiu cao hn mc lng cn bng. Bo m mc lng cao hn cho ngi lao ng nhng li to ra tht nghip. - Cng on Ngi lao ng lin kt nng mc lng c hng ln C li cho nhng ngi trong cng on nhng li lm gia tng tht nghip. - Tin lng hiu qu T doanh nghip mun tr lng cao cho lao ng nhm : thu ht nhn ti, to ng lc lm vic cho ngi lao ng,
2. Tht nghip chu k

Tht nghip tng ln khi nn kinh t suy thoi, ngun lc khng c ton dng VD : tht nghip t nhin l 2%. Khi kinh t suy thoi, t l tht nghip tng ln 3% tht nghip chu k l 1%.
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V. H THNG TI CHNH. TIT KIM V U T


H thng ti chnh Tit kim

H thng Ti chnh

u t

trc tip

gin tip

Th trng Ti chnh C phiu Tri phiu

Trung gian Ti chnh Ngn hng thng mi (*) Qu tng h

M hnh th trng vn vay


GDP = Y = C + I + G ( gi nh nn kinh t ng NX = 0 ) YCG=I (YCT)+(TG)=I = Sp + Sg = I

Sn

(Y : tng thu nhp, Sn: tit kim quc dn, Sp: tit kim t nhn, Sg: tit kim Chnh ph)

ng cung vn vay (tit kim) S(r) = Y C(r) G - Thu nh vo thu nhp t tin li tit kim - Thu nhp k vng - Sc mua ca lng ca ci tch ly - Chi tiu Chnh ph G ng cu vn vay (u t) I(r) - Thu nh vo thu nhp t u t - Trin vng kinh t - Tin b cng ngh nghch thun thun
$

nghch nghch nghch nghch

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Chnh sch thc y u t Mc tiu : lm tng lng vn vay.


Chnh ph tc ng lm dch chuyn ng cung hoc ng cu. Phn tch KQ trn th

Gim thu thu nhp t tin li tit kim ng cung dch sang phi
Dn chng gim tiu dng v tng tit kim

Gim chi tiu Chnh ph ng cung dch sang phi


Tit kim Chnh Ph v tit kim quc dn tng y gi l hin tng thoi lui(crowding out) tc l c s thay th gia Sg v u t t nhn. Khi Chnh ph tng chi tiu, u t t nhn gim ( s ln t ).

Gim thu u t ng cu dch sang phi Chnh sch khc: thc y nghin cu, to mi trng u t hp dn

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VI. TNG CUNG TNG CU


1. ng Tng Cu AD

Khi nim Nhu cu i vi hng ha dch v c sn xut trong nc ti mi mc gi chung. AD = C + I + G + NX S thay i ca cc thnh phn trn dn n s thay i ca AD. Ti sao ng AD c dc m - Khng th gii thch nh kinh t vi m v y l mc gi chung ( gi tng i ). - Gii thch : do 3 hiu ng Hiu ng ca ci : P tng lm sc mua ca lng ca ci tch ly gim ngi dn tng tit kim, gim tiu dng C gim Hiu ng li sut : P tng lm li sut tng u t I gim Hiu ng t gi hi oi : P tng lm li sut tng ng ni t ln gi X v IM NX gim S dch chuyn K vng: - K vng v thu nhp tng, kinh t tng trng AD - K vng lm pht gim lm gim C hin ti tng C tng lai AD Kinh t th gii: - Nn kinh t ti cc th trng xut khu tng (gim) lm tng (gim) AD - T gi thay i : ni t ln gi lm AD nghch Chnh sch ti kha tin t : - Chnh sch ti kha : Thay i G Thay i thu T nghch - Chnh sch tin t : nguyn nhn di hn dn n gia tng AD Tng cung tn li sut gim I tng
2. ng Tng Cung AS

thun nghch thun

thun

thun

Khi nim
Tng lng hng ha dch v m nn kinh t sn xut ra ti mi mc gi chung

Sn lng tim nng : Nng lc sn xut ph thuc vo :

- Lng t bn K - Vn nhn lc H
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- Tnh trng cng ngh T - Ngun ti nguyn N - Lng lao ng L Phn tch tnh ti mt thi im : 4 yu t trn khng i. Sn lng ph thuc vo lng lao ng L. Khi t l tht nghip = t l tht nghip t nhin (trng thi ton dng lao ng)

th sn lng tim nng ca nn kinh t Y* gi l sn lng tim nng.


Sn lng thc t c th cao hoc thp hn Y* nhng trong di hn s tin v Y* a. ng tng cung di hn LAS
Di hn : khi gi c trn cc th trng linh hot v thng tin trn th trng l hon ho, th trng kp iu chnh cn bng.

Khi , s thay i i ca mc gi chung khng lm thay i sn lng. ng LAS l ng thng ng. P Nh vy trong di hn, GDP thc t tin v GDP tim nng bt k mc gi chung l bao nhiu. Cn tht nghip bng tht nghip t nhin.

LAS

GDP Y S dch chuyn LAS : tim nng LAS thng ng ti sn lng tim nng V th s dch chuyn LAS tng ng vi s thay i ca 5 yu t trn. Ch : Khi gi du nhp khu thay i trong di hn cng lm LAS dch chuyn.

b. ng tng cung ngn hn SAS


Ngn hn : gi c mt s th trng (th trng hng ha v th trng lao ng) cha kp iu chnh cn bng li th trng, thng tin cha hon ho.

Thc t : khi gi c mt s th trng tng ln th s vic lm to ra tng v mc sn lng tng. 4 Nguyn nhn : ti sao khi gi c tng th vic lm v sn lng tng 1. L thuyt tin lng cng nhc Gi nh: - Tin lng danh ngha (tin) c nh trong mt vi nm (cng nhc) - S vic lm to ra c quyt nh bi cu lao ng (tc l th trng lao ng lun c hin tng d tha lao ng) Khi gi c hng ha tng Tin lng thc t s gim (chi ph sn xut gim) Cu lao ng tng tc l s vic lm tng. (L tng, Y tng) 2. L thuyt gi c cng nhc Gi nh: - Mt s th trng t do, gi c linh hot
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- Mt s th trng c tnh cht c quyn, gi c c nim yt trn catalog v c nh trong mt khong thi gian Khi gi c hng ha tng (trn th trng t do) - Cc hng ha nim yt gi tr nn r tng i - Cu cc HH ny tng, cc doanh nghip sn xut HH ny tng sn xut 3. L thuyt nhn thc sai lm ca cng nhn Gi nh: - Th trng lao ng t do, tin lng linh hot - Ngi lao ng nhn thc sai lm rng tin lng thc t tng khi thy tin lng danh ngha tng d rng gi c hng ha cng tng tng ng Khi gi c hng ha tng - Tin lng danh ngha tr cho ngi lao ng tng - Ngi lao ng tng tin lng thc t tng nn tng cung lao ng To p lc gim tin lng thc t, vic lm tng 4. L thuyt thng tin khng hon ho Gi nh: - Gi c trn th trng hng ha linh hot - Ngi bn hng nhn thc sai lm rng ch c gi hng ha ca mnh bn tng, cc hng ha khc khng tng gi. Khi gi c hng ha tng - Mi doanh nghip u cho rng gi tng i ca mnh tng - Doanh nghip s thu thm lao ng v tng sn xut Ch : 4 cc gii thch trn khng cn ng trong di hn.
Kt lun:

ng SAS c dc dng thun nghch nghch nghch

LAS

SAS0 SAS1

S dch chuyn SAS : - Khi LAS dch chuyn, SAS dch chuyn theo - Tin lng danh ngha thay i - Bin ng thi tit nh hng ti nng nghip - Gi nhin liu thay i - Mc gi chung c k vng thay i Hnh dng ca ng SAS

C hai phi C in v phi Keynes u nht tr rng ng LAS thng ng Phi C in v phi Keynes khng nht tr quan im v dc ca ng SAS

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AS thoi phn SL thp v dc hn phn SL cao hn SL tim nng - Ti mc sn lng thp, ngun lc cn nhn ri nhiu (lao ng, my mc) nn c th tng sn xut m khng i km tng gi - Ti mc sn lng cao, ngun lc s dng mc cao nn tng sn xut s i km vi vic tng lng v do gi c tng theo

3. Bin ng kinh t Trng thi cn bng vi m Trong ngn hn l giao ca AD v SAS Trong di hn, 3 ng AD, SAS v LAS ng quy ti sn lng tim nng. Khi c bin ng kinh t, GDP thc t chch khi GDP tim nng (chu k kinh doanh)
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Bin ng kinh t ngn hn Do AD hoc SAS hoc c 2 thay i. Cc trng hp : 1. C sc cu : Tng cu gim, ng AD dch chuyn sang bn tri. ( t AD0 AD1 ) Cc doanh nghip ct gim sn lng, im cn bng dch chuyn t E0 E1 Kinh t suy thoi, sn lng v mc gi chung gim, tht nghip tng. Trong di hn: Nu Chnh ph khng can thip, th trng t iu chnh nh sau. Gi c gim v tht nghip tng lm tin lng danh ngha gim i. Chi ph sn xut gim lm tng cung tng ln, SAS dch sang phi im cn bng lc ny t E1 E2 , sn lng tr v mc tim nng.

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Tuy nhin Chnh ph cn phi can thip v c ch t phc hi trn i hi phi c mt khong thi gian nht nh, gy ra nhng thit hi cho nn kinh t. (x. Chng sau) Qua phn tch trn ta thy: trong di hn tng cu ch nh hng n cc bin danh ngha (mc gi) cn cc cc bin thc t (sn lng, vic lm) quyt nh bi cng ngh v cung v cc nhn t sn xut.

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2. C sc cung : a. C sc cung bt li ( SAS gim ) Cc c sc lm tng chi ph sn xut, gim sn lng, SAS dch sang tri. Tht nghip tng Sn lng gim trong khi mc gi tng. Tc l suy thoi km theo lm pht (stagflation). Trong di hn, tht nghip tng lm gim tin lng danh ngha hoc c sc cung t qua i (thi tit bnh thng tr li, gi du gim tr li...) khin ng SAS t tr li v tr ban u.

Tuy nhin, nu c sc cung ko di ( gi du khng gim), sn lng tim nng gim, ng LAS dch sang tri, im cn bng di hn chuyn sang E1.

Khi c hin tng ny, Chnh Ph s phn ng bng 2 cch : Kch cu dch chuyn AD sang phi. ( thch ng vi s dch chuyn ca SAS) Sn lng tr li mc sn lng t nhin nhng lm pht cng tng cao. Ct gim tng cu AD dch sang tri. (nhm chng li lm pht) Mc g chung tr v mc ban u nhng sn lng tip tc gim, kinh t cng ln su vo suy thoi. b. C sc cung c li: SAS dch sang phi, phn tch tng t Tng trng v lm pht

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VII. TNG CU V CHNH SCH TI KHA


Chnh ph a ra chnh sch n nh nhm bnh n nn kinh t. Hai chnh sch n nh quan trng nht l : - Chnh sch ti kha - Chnh sch tin t Cc chnh sch ny c 3 mc tiu c bn : - Thc y tng trng kinh t - Gim tht nghip - n nh lm pht mc hp l. Khi mi ngun lc c s dng y th can thip ca Chnh ph trong ngn hn ch tc ng c n cch thc phn chia thu nhp. Tuy nhin khi nn kinh t cn nhiu ngun lc cha s dng th chnh sch ca Chnh ph c th nh hng n c quy m ln cch thc phn chia tng thu nhp. Nn nh rng c chnh sch ti kho v tin t u tc ng ln ng tng cu AD. Xt tnh hung nn kinh t cn nhiu ngun lc cha s dng, coi ng SAS l nm ngang (quan im ca Keynes) lc ny sn lng do s dch chuyn ca ng AD quyt nh. Lm th no nh lng s thay i ca AD khi c tc ng ca cc chnh sch ? Vn t ra : Kinh t suy thoi, Chnh ph cn tng AD bng cch tng chi tiu G mt lng G, khi ng AD s dch sang phi mt on bao nhiu, sn lng thay i th no ( bit mc gi chung lc ). Mc d AD = C + I + G + NX nhng khi Chnh ph tng chi tiu G th AD li dch sang phi mt on ln hn G bi s tc ng qua li gia cc thnh phn. Cn 1 cng c xc nh s dch chuyn ca AD trong trng hp ny : AE
P AD1 SAS

AD0

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1. ng tng chi tiu - AE Tng chi tiu d kin ti mi mc mc thu nhp vi gi nh mc gi cho trc. Phn bit vi ng AD : lng tng cu ( tng chi tiu) ti mi mc gi. AE = C + I + G + X IM (d kin ti mc gi ang xt)
Tiu dng d kin C:

C = C0 + MPC x ( Y T ) C = C0 + MPC x Yd C0 : tiu dng t nh ( phi c ngay c khi thu nhp = 0, ko ph thuc vo thu nhp ) T : thu thu nhp cho trc ( khng thay i theo Y ) MPC : xu hng tiu dng bin 0 < MPC < 1 Xt thu nhp tng ln Y tit kim tng S v tiu dng tng C (Y= S + C) (C / Y ) + (S/ Y) = 1 Hay MPC + MPS = 1 ( MPS : xu hng tit kim bin) Yu t ngoi sinh : thu thu nhp, thu nhp k vng, li sut, ti sn,mc gi chung
Xu hng tiu dng trung bnh: APC = C / Yd. Xu hng tit kim trung bnh: APS = S / Yd. u t d kin I:

I = I0 br (ph thuc vo li sut r) Io : u t t nh b : h s tng li sut lm gim I Yu t ngoi sinh : li tc k vng, trin vng kinh t
Chi tiu d kin Chnh Ph G: Xut khu d kin X: Nhp khu d kin IM:

G = G0 X = X0

Thu nhp trong nc tng th hng nhp khu c tiu dng nhiu hn IM = MPM x Y MPM : xu hng nhp khu bin. 0 < MPM < MPC Tng chi tiu d kin do vy s l: AE = C + I + G + X IM AE = C0 + MPC (Y-T) + I0 br + G0 + X0 - MPM Y AE = {Co + Io + Go + Xo - MPC T - br} + {MPC - MPM} Y AE = +
{ > 0; 0 < < 1}

.Y

Nh vy, chi tiu d kin ca nn kinh t ph thuc vo cc nhn t: - Thu nhp / GDP thc t - Li sut - Cc yu t chi tiu t nh (ngoi sinh) Xc nh sn lng cn bng
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ng nht thc : GDP Y Thu nhp quc dn AE phn nh mc chi tiu ti mi mc sn lng quc dn. Ti trng thi cn bng, AE = GDP = Y. gii phng trnh + .Y = Y ta tnh c sn lng ti trng thi cn bng. (y gi l cch tip cn thu nhp chi tiu) Biu din trn th nh sau :

Ta thy : - AE l mt ng dc ln ( chi tiu tng khi thu nhp tng ) - AE thoi hn ng 45o v = MPC - MPM < 1 (thu nhp tng 1 th tng chi tiu tng t hn 1) - AE ct trc tung ti mt gi tr dng : Thu c : Yo = ( Co + I o + Go + X o br ) S khc nhau gia sn lng thc t v AE phn nh lng hng tn kho ngoi d kin ca doanh nghip.
Nu Y > Y0 :

1 MPC T 1 MPC + MPM 1 MPC + MPM

- Tng chi tiu d kin AE (Y) s thp hn GDP thc t . - Lng hng tn kho ngoi d kin tng. - Cc doanh nghip c xu hng gim sn lng v mc Y0.

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Nu Y < Y0 :

- Tng chi tiu d kin AE (Y) s ln hn GDP thc t . - Lng hng tn kho s gim. - Cc doanh nghip c xu hng tng sn lng v mc Y0.

Y0 l mc sn lng cn bng do cc doanh nghip lun hng sn xut ti mc sn lng ny, ti mi nhu cu c tha mn v hng ha c bn ht. (sn lng thc t bng tng chi tiu d kin).

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Cc h s: Ta c :
Y0 =

Khi AE tng 1 ( AE = + .Y + 1) (dch chuyn)


m= 1 1 = 1 1 MPC + MPM

Th Y0 s tng mt lng

: s nhn chi tiu.

Nu chnh ph gim thu T th sn lng cn bng s tng thm mt lng


Y = MPC T 1 MPC + MPM

S nhn thu :

MPC 1 MPC + MPM 1 G 1 MPC + MPM

Nu chnh ph tng chi tiu G th sn lng cn bng s tng thm mt lng


Y =

Xt trng hp nn kinh t ng, thu thu nhp l t% Yd= (1 - t).Y AE =C0 + MPC. (1 t).Y + I +G S nhn chi tiu
m= 1 1 M PC .(1 t )

2. Chnh sch ti kha Chnh sch ti kha m rng Tng chi tiu G hoc gim thu thu nhp T s lm ng tng cu dch chuyn sang phi. Chnh sch ti kha tht cht Gim chi tiu G hoc tng thu thu nhp T s lm ng tng cu dch chuyn sang tri.

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VII. TIN T V CHNH SCH TIN T


Khi nim v o lng tin : Tin : Phng tin trao i c mi ngi chp nhn v s dng rng ri. phng tin ct gia gi tr n v hnh ton Lch s : 3 giai on - Tin hng ho : mui, kim loi qu, (l hng ho c gi tr c hu) - Tin bn v (vng/bc) : Chnh ph c nh gi vng tnh bng ng ni t. - Tin php nh : tin khng c gi tr thc, do php lnh quy nh l hp l. o lng khi lng tin (chia theo kh nng thanh khon) M0 (Cu): tin mt (tin php quy) tin giy v tin xu M1 : tin giao dch M0 v sc/tin gi khng k hn (c th rt theo nhu cu) M2 : tin rng M1 v tin gi c k hn. H thng ngn hng v Cung tin H thng Ngn hng : - Ngn hng trung ng : qun l tin t - Ngn hng thng mi : kinh doanh tin t C s tin t (tin mnh) MB = Cu + R (tin d tr ca Ngn hng thng mi) l lng tin m Ngn hng trung ng in v pht hnh ra dn chng. Cung tin MS = Cu + D (tin gi ni chung) MS > MB do ngn hng thng maih khi cho vay lm tng cung tin. S nhn tin mm = MS : MB > 1 Phn nh kh nng to tin ca cc ngn hng thng mi.

Cu +1 M S C u+ D cr + 1 D mm = = = = M B C u+ R C u + R cr + ra D D
Thi quen gi tin mt ca dn chng cr = Cu/D T l d tr ca ngn hng ra = R/D - Dn chng cng thch gi tin th cr cng ln, mm cng nh MS cng nh Nu cr = 0 th mm = 1/ ra - Ngn hng cng d tr nhiu th ra cng ln, mm cng nh MS cng nh Nu ngn hng gi ton b v khng cho vay ra=1 th MS=MB

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Cng c kim sot ca ngn hng trung ng Chnh ph a ra chnh sch tin t - kim sot cung tin. 1. Nghip v th trng m : NHT mua hoc bn tri phiu chnh ph cho cng chng. MB tng hoc gim lng tng ng. MS thay i theo. Ch : ch c nghip v ca NHTW mi lm thay i cung tin, nghip v khng lm xo trn hot ng ca NHTM nhng cn th trng tri phiu CP pht trin. 2. Thay i T l d tr bt buc Tng hay gim t l d tr bt buc t l d tr ca cc NHTM tng gim tng ng mm gim hoc tng cung tin gim hoc tng. (pht huy c tc dng tc th nhng t s dng v s lm gin on hot ng ca NHTM, thng s dng khi c khng hong) 3. Thay i Li sut chit khu Li sut chit khu : li sut m NHT cho cc NHTM vay. Khi cc NHTM gp kh khn, NHT ng vai tr ngi cho vay cui cng cu NHTM. NTT gim li sut chit khu NHTM c xu th gim d tr, cho vay nhiu hn mm tng cung tin tng. Cu tin MD Mi ngi mun nm gi tin (loi ti sn khng sinh li hoc sinh li rt thp) v - ng c giao dch (transaction): mua bn hng ngy - ng c d phng (precautionary): p ng cc khon chi tiu bt thng - ng c u c (speculative): mt loi ti sn ct tr gi tr Cu tin danh ngha ph thuc trc tip vo cc nhn t sau - Thu nhp thc t Y thun - Li sut danh ngha i nghch - Mc gi chung P thun MD = P x ( k. Y h. i ) Cu tin thc t MD/P ch ph thuc vo Y v i. Trng thi cn bng ca th trng tin t : L thuyt a thch thanh khon ca Keynes: - MS hon ton do NHT quyt nh v bng MS0 Cung tin thc t : MS0/P Li sut danh ngha cn bng l r0 hm rng ti lng cu tin thc t bng vi lng cung tin thc t; th trng tin t cn bng.
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Chnh sch tin t : Chnh sch tin t l chnh sch thay i cung tin thay i li sut thay i chi tiu u t thay i GDP thc t. NHTW gim cung tin : mua tri phiu, tng t l d tr bt buc, tng li sut chit khu ng cung dch sang tri, li sut tng r I d kin gim lm AE dch xung mt lng tng ng b. r sn lng gim m . b . r NHTW tng cung tin : ngc li Hiu qu ph thuc vo : - h s co gin ca cu tin - s nhy cm ca u t vi li sut - s nhn chi tiu Kt hp chnh sch tin t v chnh sch ti kho

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