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Fourteenth Annual IIE/Rockwell Automation Simulation Contest Evacuating Rockwell Shores and St.

Rocks Barrier Island

Introduction Your team has just been hired by the City of Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island to evaluate and provide recommendations for the evacuation process during an emergency event. The community is most susceptible to violent hurricanes. The current evacuation procedures have not changed in the last decade and there is national concern that areas are not equipped to handle a complete evacuation during an emergency. Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island are popular resort towns on the coast of a major ocean. The island, originally settled in the 1920s, was privately held by the St. Rocks family until the late Eudoxia Arena St. Rocks passed away in 1953 leaving the island to the community of Rockwell Shores. At the time, the only access to the island was via ferry or the private airstrip for the St. Rocks family. In 1956 the community of Rockwell Shores was able to gain funding from the state and federal government to build a bridge to the island and this bridge, completed in 1959, is the key access to the island. Today Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Island are popular vacation spots for couples and families. There is everything from simple beach bungalows to luxurious resort hotels for travelers. The economy is tourist-based and everything is done to make certain that visitors enjoy their stay on the island enough to return. The commercial success of the island has spurred more growth and has attracted more visitors. A major concern is that the island bridge, the only access point to the mainland, is not sufficient for a full evacuation during peak times. There is also discussion on the overall capacity of the highway system should a major evacuation be necessary. The federal government is also mandating that sufficient shelter capacity exists to manage evacuees. Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island Background Hurricanes are the primary reason for evacuating the area. With an elevation of 10ft, even a level one hurricane can create storm surges that will cover St. Rocks Island entirely. The elevation of Rockwell Shores ranges from 10ft 17ft. Needless to say, a strong storm will require inhabitants to evacuate to Zone 2 for guaranteed safety. Figure 1, provides an overview of the island and Rockwell Shores.

Rockwell High School Rockwell Rockets Arena

Route 79

Zone 2
Rockwell Community Center

Zone 1

Highway 17

Summerset Rd Greenview Rd Interstate 12 Mangrove Drive

Rockwell Shores
Highway 1

Key Stop Signs Ocean Drive Bus lot

St. Rocks Barrier Island


Shelter On/Off Ramps 3 miles

Figure 1: Rockwell Shores and St. Rocks Barrier Island

St. Rocks Barrier Island On the island, there are approximately 2,567 full time residents, and during the vacation season there can be as few as 3,500 but as many as 50,000 additional persons staying on the island. The island is approximately 18 miles long with Ocean Drive being the main thoroughfare. Ocean Drive is a 2 lane road (one way in each direction). There is one direct access point to the mainland, a two lane bridge. The only other method of accessing the island is via a ferry that is unavailable during inclement weather. St. Rocks has two commercial centers, one at the access point with the mainland and another at the far end of the island. There are 3 large intersections on the island identified on the map. Stop signs create 4-way stops at these intersections. Current evacuation methods direct all traffic to these key intersections. Ocean Drive can only be accessed via the side roads to these intersections. Assume even population across the island. The speed limit on Ocean Drive is 25 mph. The Ocean Drive bridge access point opens directly onto the town of Rockwell Shores at the intersection of Highway 1 and Mangrove drive (the continuation of Ocean Drive on the mainland). Keep in mind that the evacuation of St. Rocks means that the population of Rockwell Shores will be evacuating as well. Island residents will queue up waiting for access to the highway as they evacuate.

Rockwell Shores Rockwell Shores has 40,000 full time residents and can see a 50% increase during peak vacation times. The city center of Rockwell Shores is located just west of Mangrove drive. About 60% of the population resides here and 20% stay along the shore. Vacationers primarily occupy the hotels and resorts along the beach. The city limits of Rockwell Shores do not extend north of Zone 1. Evacuation routes out of town will primarily be via the major roads shown on the map. On and off ramps are located at each major road intersection. The average speed limit on the major roads is noted in the table below. Vehicles will attempt to travel at speeds within 10% of the speed limit. Road congestion will reduce the average speed of the vehicle. Once out of Zone 1, Rockwell Shores is no longer accountable.
Road Name Greenview Rd Interstate 12 Mangrove Drive Sommerset Rd Highway 1 Highway 17 Route 79 Ocean Drive Speed Limit (mph) 50 45 35 45 45 65 65 25

Table 1: Road and Speed Limits

The population of Rockwell Shores has been rising and updates to infrastructure are being considered. Currently all major roads are single lanes. Current Evacuation Procedures The process by which locals and tourists evacuate the areas during a pending storm is variable. Depending on the level of the anticipated storm, the time until the storms arrival and access to transportation, people will evacuate at different rates. Evacuees without access to cars will need to wait until buses arrive to take them to safety. Typical evacuation patterns can be seen in Table 2.
Time Before Hurricane Hits (hrs) 30-36 25-30 20-25 15-20 10-15 5-10 4-5 3-4 2-3 1-2 0-1 Table 2: Evacuation Patterns % of Occupants Prepared to Access Roads 7% 13% 17% 26% 18% 11% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Type of Occupant Occupant with access to personal transportation Occupant without access to personal transportation Table 3: Vehicle Concentration

% of Population St. Rocks Island Rockwell Shores 95% 92% 5% 8%

<1% of occupants on St. Rocks Island will not try to evacuate. 7% - 10% of occupants on Rockwell Shores will not try to evacuate. There are two types of vehicles. Cars, which are 13 ft long and vans are 17 ft long. Only 20% of drivers use vans and remaining can be assumed to drive cars. All drivers leave at least 4ft between cars on the road. The number of passengers in each car is estimated to be a triangular distribution with 1 as the minimum number, 6 as the maximum and a most likely number of 4. The number of passengers in each van is estimated to be a triangular distribution with 1 as the minimum number, 12 as the maximum and a most likely number of 5. There are 35 total buses and 25 shuttles. Buses can hold a maximum of 40 people and are 41 ft long. Shuttles can hold a maximum of 25 people and are 30 ft long. If a hurricane level 3 or greater is anticipated, Rockwell Shores and the island will call for a mandatory evacuation. During a mandatory evacuation: 1. Sirens will sound throughout the city and island. Radio and television will also provide evacuation announcements and procedures. This will typically occur 12-24 hours before the hurricane will hit based on advanced technology detection. 2. Next, emergency personnel will drive through each street area alerting residents. 3. Island residents and visitors with transportation means will head towards the Ocean Drive bridge to evacuate the island. Rockwell Shores residents and visitors will head to the nearest major expressway to get to Zone 2. 4. On the island, residents and visitors without transportation will be evacuated by trained emergency drivers via buses. Buses will transport people to one of several shelters. Buses will return to the island to pick up additional evacuees up to 6 hours before the storm is predicted to hit. a. School buses and shuttles from Rockwell Shores will be used to transport people off the island. The map indicates the key locations of available buses and shuttles. Assume there are trained personnel qualified to drive each available bus. 10% of the buses and shuttles from Rockwell Shores are currently allocated to evacuating the island. Typically, each bus is assigned to a particular area to search for stranded persons. The process for this pick up is not very well defined. 5. Currently there are 3 shelters located in the safety Zone 2. Each shelter has a unique capacity. Buses will drop off evacuees at one of the 3 shelters before returning to the city to pick up additional evacuees. People with cars will go to a shelter, find a hotel, or continue to drive to the home of friends and/or family. Those individuals who put off evacuating until 10 hours prior to landfall of the hurricane are more likely to

require shelter and any individuals still in Zone 1 two hours prior to landfall will have no other options but to report to the shelters. Evacuees without transportation take priority at shelters and those with transportation may have to move to another shelter or travel further inland to search for additional shelter. Each shelter is staffed by emergency personnel. Adequate staffing is estimated to be 1 caregiver for every 125 evacuees.
Shelter Rockwell Rockets Arena Rockwell High School Rockwell Community Center Table 4: Shelter Capacity Capacity 15,000 3,000 750

Scenarios The goal of the project is to design the most effective method of evacuating the St. Rocks Barrier Island in the least amount of time. As a part of the analysis, the town wants to better understand if current evacuation processes are adequate and if not, how they should budget for improvements. The following questions should be considered. 1. How many personnel would make for an effective evacuation? This includes staffing of the shelters, bus and shuttle crews, and personnel to direct traffic as well as police to attend to potential emergencies. 2. Should the city purchase and maintain additional buses for evacuation purposes? 3. What infrastructure improvements to the community should be changed? 4. Are there any recommendations for intersection management on the island? 5. Would implementing formal evacuation routes be effective? 6. Should additional shelter capacity be made available? What additional capacity and where should the shelters be located? 7. Include a price estimate for changes and manpower during an evacuation in your proposal to the city. Costing: Assume all emergency shelter personnel are utilized, at a rate of $15 /hour, bus drivers are utilized at a rate of $20/hr and police are utilized at a rate of $45/hr. The estimated cost to add another 2 lane bridge from the island to the mainland is $200 - $250 million. Adding lanes to major roads can cost anywhere from $100,000 - $150,000 per mile. Buses cost $50,000 and will require maintenance of $1000 per year.