A few of such studies relating to this research are high along with the information about time. Nigeria during 1928 to 1978 and he has found that the first order Markov chain and gamma models have been used in agriculture. subject and their findings. This very important area of research is well explored and a good number of works are made available. it is relevant to. Shilpur and Hydrabad. India for the period between 1916 to 1975 with a view to providing agronomically useful 7 . In this study.2 Review of the Literature and Current Studies A number of comprehensive and through research works have so far been conducted on rainfall but people are still scrutinizing ins and outs of meteorological data (especially rainfall) from different vantage points. Strem (1980) has analyzed the daily rainfall data at Samaru. 2. make a survey of related literatures. where it is shown that the frequency distributions of dry spells follow nearly a logarithmic series. the frontiersman of meteorological study about current context. variables analysis techniques and the way the variables are related. (1981) has examined the start of the rains in West Africa for period between 1934 to 1965. the frequency distributions of wet spell do not follow a logarithmic series.1 Introduction To arrive at a better justification regarding the selection of models. So far we have concerned. the start of the rain was defined as the first occurrence of a specified amount of rain within two successive days. Where as. Stern et al (1982) have analyzed the daily rainfall data for Kano. William (1952) has studied the sequence of wet and dry spells for Rthamsted experimental station. Stern et al. Harpendeen studies for two five years periods 1938 tol942 and 1943 to!947.SECTION 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.

Gabriel (1959) derived an exact formula for the distribution of the number of wet days in a fixed period of time. start. he has also found that under Geary statistic seasonal data follow a Gaussian model. they have obtained the probability of an event like start. Again. On the basis of first order Markov model for daily rainfall occurrences he has found that the first planting dates for 8 . Sinha (1989) has analyzed the daily. . A seasonal trend was found for the short period variation. Eichmeier and Baten (1962) analyzed daily precipitation records for Michigan State University. Again. Gramzow and Henry (1972) showed the beginning of the rainfall of a rainy pentad for central America and tried to identify the causes of rain. He has observed that monthly rainfall amount during Aus and Aman periods follow Pearson type one model. The gamma distribution is found to fit well to the monthly rainfall data in the nor'wester season. monthly. In modeling approach. of the rains directly form the relative frequency of rainfall occurrences. Tough the direct method. seasonal rainfall data of rainy season for five selected stations of Bangladesh for the period between 1966 and 1986 to identify the impact of rainfall on agriculture.Islam (1980) has analyzed the probability distribution of seasonal rainfall data at Pabna station for the period 1902-1952. Topil (1963) studied the variation of precipitation probability at Denver. they have obtained the probabilities of dry spells using the simple recurrence relations and the potential results have been related to agriculture. they have fitted the probability model for the dry spells. end etc.results by s direct method and a modeling approach. he has shown that the seasonal and monthly totals for the rainy season follow a normal distribution and he has suggested a log-transformation on both the amount of rainfall and the frequency of rainfall to the data. In this study. end and length of the growing season and the amount of rainfall through out the year.

Ishwardi.h and Debsarma (1992) have studied Climate change of Bangladesh (A Statistical Review) taking into account the data from 1984 to 1989 that presented at the "IOC/UNEP workshop on global warming and sea level rise in the South Asian seas region. Islam.Aus paddy are somewhat risky. (1990) have studied the trends of regional variations and periodicities of annual rainfall in Bangladesh for 32 years between 1947 and 1979 at 30 meteorological stations and they have shown that the yearly rainfall amounts for most of the stations follow a normal distribution. Khan m. S. Pabna and Khulna stations have shown positive trends while for Comilla station a year cycle for Mymensingh. 9 . Bangladesh for the period between 1974 and 1984.E. Annual rainfall data for Rajshahi.D.H (2000) fitted the probability of both dry and wet spell for all seasons in Bangladesh in six divisional stations on the basis of 50 years of rainfall data. Debsarma K. Khulna and Narayangonj whereas a 3-year cycle has been found in the two adjacent districts of Faridpur and Jessore. F. Shinha and Paul (1992) have examined the pattern of rainfall for rainy season of Sylhet area. Roy et al. Bogra. The period between August 16 and September 1 has been identified as the most suitabloe data of start of the growing season for Aman paddy. and Hossain.S (1992) has studied some generalized features and impact of the Southwest Monsoon over the sub-continent that presented at the seminar on "Asian Monsoons and its Fluctuations" organized by the Bangladesh Academy of Science (BAS).

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