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Everett School District

Enrollment Trends and Projections


Prepared by
William L.
L ((Les)
Les ) Kendrick
(Consultant)

December 2011

Introduction
Enrollment and Demographic Trends
Enrollment in the Everett school district declined byy 62 students between October 2010
and October 2011. And similar to last year the overall number was very close to the projection,
but elementary enrollment came in lower than expected and high school enrollment slightly
higher. Middle school enrollment was also slightly lower than projected.
The trends of the past 2 years point to the slowing growth trends that are affecting all of
Snohomish County. The unemployment rate is higher in Snohomish and Pierce County than in
King County and new home construction and sales are well below the trends that were seen
between 2000 and 2007
2007. As a result K-12
K 12 public school enrollment in Snohomish County
declined by over 700 students in the past year. The only districts that saw a net gain in their
enrollment were Mukilteo, Lake Stevens and Lakewood. Even private school enrollment in the
county was down between 2009 and 2010.
At the elementary level, the District is beginning to see the effects of the decline in new
home construction and sales. Although the District did see continuing enrollment growth in
Woodside and Cedar Woods, other south end neighborhoods, like Mill Creek and saw declines
in their enrollment after several years of strong growth. Elementary enrollments in the central
and northern parts of the District were mostly in line with projections.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

District Enrollment Trend


October Headcount
State P223 Reports
20000
18000
16000

15645

16823
16295 16500

16895

17457

17977 18251 18340 18239

18486 18337 18229 18094 18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649

14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Oct91

Oct- Oct92
93

Oct- Oct- Oct94


95
96

Oct- Oct97
98

Oct99

Oct00

Oct- Oct- Oct01


02
03

Oct- Oct04
05

Oct- Oct06
07

Oct- Oct- Oct08


09
10

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Oct11

Snohomish County Public Schools


Enrollment Trend
120000

15.0%

110000
100000

93142

96709

99992

109517 108442
107092 106303 106648 107925 108586 108251 109036 109136
105038 106360
103539
102512

13.0%
11.0%

90000
80000

9.0%

70000

7.0%

60000
5.0%

50000
40000

3.8%

3.4%

2.5%

3.0%

2.5%

30000

1.0%

1.4%

1.3%

1.1%

0.7%

20000

0.3%

0.7%

0.6%
-0.3%

-0.7%

0.1%

0.4%
-0.9%
%

10000
0

1.0%
-1
1.0%
0%
-3.0%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Enrollment

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Percent Change

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

NetChangeinEnrollmentforSnohomishCountySchool
Net
Change in Enrollment for Snohomish County School
DistrictsOct10toOct11
Monroe

220

Sultan

157
157

Stanwood

139

Edmonds

138

GraniteFalls

Net Change for the


E ti County
Entire
C
t = -733
733

117

Arlington

97

Marysville

72

Everett

63

Darrington
g

21

Snohomish

12

Index

SkillsCenter

21

L k
Lakewood
d

25

LakeStevens

78

Mukilteo(W/OSkillsCNTR)*

179
500

400

300

200

100

100

200

300

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Private School Enrollment


Snohomish County
Note: Data Not Available for 2003. (Numbers Include Pre-School)
7000
6053

6000
5000

4437 4527

4749

5051
4796 4932

5278

5611 5582 5466

5364 5531

6291 6157
5653

5164 5332

5351

4000
3000
2000
1000

19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Introduction
Enrollment and Demographic Trends
Similar
Si
il to last
l year, enrollment
ll
at the
h high
hi h school
h l level
l l was better
b
than
h expected.
d This
Thi
trend has been seen in a number of Districts throughout the Puget Sound Region. It may well
reflect the impact of a poor economy (with more students opting to stay in school) or the
beneficial effects of dropout prevention programs. In either case, this trend is projected to
continue
i
into
i
the
h future
f
resulting
l i in
i less
l decline
d li at the
h high
hi h school
h l level
l l than
h was projected
j
da
few years ago.
Since 2007 ppopulation
p
and K-12 enrollment g
growth has been concentrated in King
g
County. There is less movement overall, due to the collapse of the real estate housing bubble
and fewer people are opting to move out of King County into either Pierce or Snohomish
County. K-12 enrollment in the outlying counties is likely to continue to decline or show very
little improvement
p
until this trend changes.
g Over the next few years,
y
, most of the K-12
enrollment growth in Snohomish County is likely to be the result of larger birth cohorts
entering the school system. Growth from job gains or new housing construction are likely to
be minimal at least through 2012 and possibly longer.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Introduction
Enrollment and Demographic Trends
As th
A
these llarger birth
bi th cohorts
h t enter
t the
th schools
h l Everett
E
tt andd many other
th districts
di t i t in
i
Snohomish County are likely to see an increase in their enrollment. But there are reasons to be
cautious. The number of births in Snohomish County was lower than expected in 2010 and
the birth rate was the lowest in well over a decade. A look at fertility rates (the number of
children
hild
bborn tto women iin th
their
i child-bearing
hild b i years)) suggests
t that
th t some women may be
b
delaying having children, perhaps due to the difficult economy. If this trend were to continue
enrollment growth in the county might be less than expected out to 2020.
In Everett specifically, enrollment is projected to decline slightly in 2012, before
growing again between 2013 and 2021. In addition to the usual considerations of population
and housing growth and their effect on enrollment, this years report also considers data from
the recentlyy completed
p
Census to helpp project
p j future enrollment in the District.
The following sections provide charts and discussion of recent and future demographic
trends in births, population and housing. After this discussion, District and school projections
are presented.
presented

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

NetChangein4CountyPublicSchoolEnrollment:
King,Pierce,Snohomish,andKitsapCombined
(
(OverHalfaMillionPublicSchoolsStudentsin4Counties)
)
P223ReportedOCTOBEREnrollment
NumbersareUpdatedandChangedPeriodically;TheTrendisMoreRELEVANTthantheSpecificNumbers

12618

12427
10039

9911
8860 8727
6517
4714
3152

2397
1439 1189

855

2170
916

376

2070
656

1217

-1 1
2010

-1 0
2009

-0 9
2008

-0 8
2007

-0 7
2006

-0 6
2005

-0 5
2004

-0 4
2003

-0 3
2002

-0 2
2001

-0 1
2000

-0 0
1999

-9 9
1998

-9 8
1997

-9 7
1996

-9 6
1995

-9 5
1994

-9 4
1993

-9 3
1992

-9 2

-742

1991

15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
-1000
-3000
3000

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Net Change in Enrollment by County


O t 2010 to
Oct
t Oct
O t 2011
4,000

3,531
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1 000
1,000
500
0
500

405

323
733

1,000

King

Kitsap

Pierce

Snohomish

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Pierce

24.6%

24.4%

24.2%

24.0%

23.8%

23 6%
23.6%

23.4%

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Oct11

Oct10

Oct09

Oct08

Oct07

Oct06

Oct05

Oct04

Oct03

Oct02

Oct01

Oct00

Oct99

KingCounty

Oct98

Oct97

46.5%
Oct96

47.0%

Oct95

47.5%

Oct94

48.0%

Oct93

48.5%

Oct92

49.0%

Oct91

Oct11

Oct10

Oct09

Oct08

Oct07

Oct06

Oct05

Oct04

Oct03

Oct02

Oct01

Oct00

Oct99

Oct98

Oct97

Oct96

Oct95

Oct94

Oct93

Oct92

Oct91

49.5%

Oct91
Oct92
Oct93
Oct94
Oct95
Oct96
Oct97
Oct98
Oct99
Oct00
Oct01
Oct02
Oct03
Oct04
Oct05
Oct06
Oct07
Oct08
Oct09
Oct10
Oct11

Oct11

Oct10

Oct09

Oct08

Oct07

Oct06

Oct05

Oct04

Oct03

Oct02

Oct01

Oct00

Oct99

Oct98

Oct97

Oct96

Oct95

Oct94

Oct93

Oct92

Oct91

Percent of K-12 Enrollment by County


P223 October Enrollment
Kitsap

9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%

Snohomish

21.0%
20.5%
20 0%
20.0%
19.5%
19.0%
18.5%
18.0%
17.5%
17.0%

Population Growth
The population of Snohomish County grew by over 100,000 residents in the past
decade according to the latest census. But the number of residents added between 2000 and
2010 was less than the number added between 1990 and 2000. And in the past 5 years county
growth has been slower than it was in the previous 5 years (according to data from the State of
Washington). This slowing growth rate has had a clear effect on school enrollment.
According to the latest census, the population of the Everett School District grew from
112,145 residents in 2000 to 129,842 residents in 2010. This represents an annual growth rate
of 1.6%. This is very close to the projected rate of growth predicted by the Puget Sound
Regional Council for neighborhoods in and around the District (they predicted an annual rate
of 1.8%).
Despite gains in the population, the Districts share of the county population has
remained
i d att a fairly
f i l constant
t t level
l l over the
th pastt decade.
d d Projecting
P j ti forward,
f
d it is
i likely
lik l that
th t
Everetts share of the county population will decline, since other parts of the county are
projected to grow at a faster rate. Using various estimates of future growth (PSRC forecasts,
housing data, and the Census) the Districts share of the county population is projected to
d li from
decline
f
18.2%
18 2% in
i 2010 tto somewhere
h bbetween
t
17
17.7%
7% tto 17
17.9%
9% bby 2020
2020. Ch
Changes in
i
population growth in Everett are generally correlated with changes in the enrollment trends.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Snohomish County Population Estimates


Source: Census and OFM State of Washington
740,000

15.0%

720,000

713,335

717,000

13.0%

705,895
699,329

700,000

689 314
689,314

11.0%

676,126

680,000
661,346

660,000

9.0%

648,778
639,942

640,000

7.0%

629,287
617,864

620,000

5.0%

606,024

600,000
3.0%
580,000

2.0%

1.8%

1.7%

1.4%

1.9%

2.2%

2.0%

1.5%
0 9%
0.9%

560,000

1 1%
1.1%
0.5%

540,000

1 0%
1.0%
-1.0%

Census
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Population

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Census
2010

2011
(OFM
Estim.))

Percent Increase

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

PopulationoftheEverettSchoolDistrict
(WithAlternativeGrowthEstimates)

146 823
146,823

160 000
160,000

129,842

140,000

112,620

120,000
100,000

146 158
146,158

88,641

80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Census 1990

Census 2000

Census 2010

2020 (Based on
Census Analysis)

2020 (Based on
PSRC
Neighborhood
Forecasts)

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Population Growth
Using data from the 1990, 2000 and 2010 Census it is possible to make some reasonable
forecasts of future population growth within the District. To do this we consider the net
change in 5 year age groups from one census to the next for the Everett School District
population. For example, the size of the aged 20-24 population in 2010 is compared to the size
of the aged 10-14 population in 2000 to see how much growth or decline occurred over decade.
Over the course of the decade some residents in a particular age group will move out, others
will move in, and others will stay put, and everyone will be 10 years older. The ratio between
the age groups (Aged 20-24 in 2010 divided by Age 10-14 in 2000) gives some indication of
where there is growth and decline due to movement in and out of the District. The table on
page 17 shows the trends in Everett for the past two census periods.
Using the ratios from the past two census periods it is possible to predict future
population growth. At the lowest ages (0-4 and 5-9) growth is predicted based on the ratio of
children in that age group to women in their child
child-bearing
bearing years using the most recent
averages. And at the highest age group (Over 85 years) the population is projected based on the
ratio of the 85 and over group to the number of residents ages 70 and above from the previous
census. This allows us to account for changes in migration as well as the higher death rates that
occur when
occu
w e people
peop e age.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Population Growth
Using this analysis, the population of the Everett School District is expected to increase
from 129,845 residents in 2010 to 146,823 residents in 2020. The Age 5-19 population within
the District is expected to increase from 25,026 residents in 2010 to 27,291 residents in 2020, a
gain of over 2000. The K-12 public school population in Everett has traditionally been about
75% of the Age 5-19 population in the District, but it has been trending down in recent years.
Assuming these trends continue the Districts enrollment in 2020 is projected to just over
20,000 students (see the Table on page 18).
This forecast is slightly lower than some of the forecasts that have been created in the
past few years, looking at housing and population growth, but it is in line with those trends. In
addition, if we look at the correlation between Everetts share of the county population and
Everetts share of the K-12 county population we reach a similar conclusion. Since the mid1990s there has been a strong correlation between change in Everetts share of the county
population and changes in it
itss share of the county K
K-12
12 population (see chart on page 19)
Assuming that the county K-12 public school population grows to approximately 117,472
students by 2020 (based on births and projected population growth), we would predict that
Everett would enroll about 17% of this population (based on changes in the Districts share of
tthee county
cou ty popu
population).
at o ). Thiss wou
would
d result
esu t in aan eenrollment
o e t oof 19,970
9,970 stude
students
ts by 2020.
0 0.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Projected Population of the Everett School District


Using Census Data
EverettSchoolDistrict
Male
1990 2000
3 939 4,000
0 to 4 yrs 3,939
0to4yrs
5to9Yrs 3,859 3,925
1014yrs 2,942 4,455
1519yrs 2,579 4,175
2,856 4,895
2024
4 434 4,105
4,434
4 105
25 29
2529
4,473 4,830
3034
4,016 5,315
3539
3,522 5,015
4044
2,769 4,045
4549
1 734 3,490
1,734
3 490
50 54
5054
1,504 2,440
5559
1,440 1,720
6064
1,266 1,200
6569
1,239 935
7074
762 1,065
1 065
75 79
7579
417 595
8084
85andove 253 555
44,004 56,760
/W 04
/W 59

Totals
2010 1990 2000
4362 7,561
7 561 7,980
7 980
4154 7,181 7,790
4045 6,000 8,600
4039 5,301 7,905
4023 5,691 8,565
4899 8,475
8 475 7,890
7 890
4528 8,668 9,200
4644 8,218 10,190
4648 6,678 9,700
5020 5,113 8,345
4848 3,588
3 588 7,120
7 120
4181 3,089 4,855
3473 2,957 3,440
2137 3,068 2,825
1582 2,654 2,235
1347 2,039
2 039 2,505
2 505
1128 1,314 1,840
1,521 1,046 1,635
64,579 88,641 112,620
Average Male
18.6% 15.9% 16.9% 17.1% 15.8% 16.3%
16.4%
18.6% 15.3% 15.5% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0%
15.4%
2010
4 529
4,529
4,316
4,161
4,311
4,881
5 299
5,299
4,932
4,837
4,983
5,184
4 987
4,987
4,135
3,096
2,047
1,254
937
662
712
65,263

Females
1990 2000
3 622 3,980
3,622
3,322 3,865
3,058 4,145
2,722 3,730
2,835 3,670
3 785
4 041 3,785
4,041
4,195 4,370
4,202 4,875
3,156 4,685
2,344 4,300
3 630
1 854 3,630
1,854
1,585 2,415
1,517 1,720
1,802 1,625
1,415 1,300
1 277 1,440
1,277
1 440
897 1,245
793 1,080
44,637 55,860

RatesofChange
MaleRates
FemaleRates
Project2020
2010 9000 0010 WghtAvg 9000 0010WghtAvg Males Females
8 891
8,891
5 606 4,718
5,606
4 718
8,470
4,594 4,472
8,206 1.13 1.04
1.06 1.14 1.02 1.05 4,711 4,433
8,350 1.08 1.10
1.09 1.12 1.05 1.06 4,740 4,341
8,904 1.66 1.10
1.24 1.20 0.97 1.03 4,559 3,926
10 198 1.59
10,198
1 59 1.27
1 27
1 35 1.39
1.35
1 39 1.31
1 31 1.33
1 33 5,472
5 472 5,305
5 305
9,460 1.69 1.01
1.18 1.54 1.23 1.31 4,918 4,964
9,481 1.20 1.18
1.18 1.21 1.23 1.22 6,244 6,011
9,631 1.12 1.03
1.05 1.12 1.06 1.08 5,088 4,816
10,204 1.01 0.98
0.98 1.02 1.03 1.03 4,718 4,782
9 835 0.99
9,835
0 99 0.99
0 99
0 99 1.15
0.99
1 15 1.03
1 03 1.06
1 06 4,955
4 955 4,810
4 810
8,316 0.88 1.02
0.99 1.03 0.97 0.99 5,299 4,881
6,569 0.99 0.89
0.91 0.93 0.96 0.95 4,424 4,638
4,184 0.80 0.84
0.83 1.03 0.88 0.92 3,469 3,700
2,836 0.65 0.73
0.71 0.86 0.92 0.90 2,257 3,194
2 284 0.84
2,284
0 84 0.78
0 78
0 80 0.80
0.80
0 80 0.83
0 83 0.82
0 82 1,598
1 598 1,771
1 771
1,790 0.48 0.71
0.65 0.88 0.87 0.87
888 1,373
2,233 0.23 0.27
0.26 0.30 0.38 0.36
634
514
129,842
74,174 72,649
Female
16.1%
15.0%

Total
10 324
10,324
9,066
9,144
9,081
8,485
10 777
10,777
9,882
12,255
9,904
9,500
9 765
9,765
10,180
9,062
7,169
5,451
3 369
3,369
2,261
1,148
146,823

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Projected K-12 Population in the


Everett School District Using Census Data
Forecast

TotalPopulation
PopulationChange
%519
Age519
Age 5 19

1990

2000

88,641

112,620

2010

2020

129,842 146,823

23,979

17,222

16,981

20.9%

21.6%

19.3%

18.6%

18 482
18,482

24 295
24,295

25 026
25,026

27 291
27,291

18,239

18,711

20,150

75.1%

74.8%

73.8%

0.7%

2.3%

0.7%

16.2%

14.4%

13.7%

EverettPublicSchoolsK12
Publick12%ofAge519

K12%ofTotalPopulation

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Everetts Share of the TOTAL County Population


Compared to its Share of the K
K-12
12 County Population
19.50%

19 00%
19.00%

18.50%

18 00%
18.00%

17.50%

17 00%
17.00%

16.50%

16.00%
%

15.50%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% of County Population

% of County K
K-12
12

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Population Growth
As a final check on future enrollment two simple linear models were created to predict
future enrollment in the school district. The first model uses county births and Everetts
projected share of the county population to predict future enrollment. This model predicts that
the District will enroll just over 19,000 students by 2015 and 20,175 students by 2020. This is
very close to the earlier estimates, though it should be pointed out that this model assumes
increasing births between now and 2015 (see the next section on births).
A final linear model uses the projected population for the District (rather than looking at
the Districts share of the county population) and births to predict future enrollment. This
model predicts that enrollment will be at 20,125 students by 2020.
All of these models look at total enrollment rather than enrollment by grade. As a result
they do not allow us to look at enrollment by grade level. The final district projection models
l k att grade-to-grade
look
d t
d trends
t d to
t predict
di t enrollment.
ll
t Th
The estimate
ti t from
f
these
th
more generall
models are used to tweak the forecasts so that they align with future estimates of population
growth, and specifically K-12 population growth within the District.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Linear Projection Models Based on Population and Births


Different Models
1) Linear
Li Model
M d l Based
B d on Everett's
E tt' Share
Sh off the
th County
C t Population
P l ti andd Births
Bi th
Projections
2010
2011
2015
2020
18 711 18,649
18 649 19,092
19 092 20,175
20 175
Projected Enrollment 18,711
ProjectedEnrollment

ShareofCountyPop.
CountyBirths

18.1%
8924

18.2%
9070

18.1%
9001

17.9%
9811

2025

20,550
20
550
17.7%
10,553

2) Linear Model Based on Births and Projected Population Growth in the Everett School District
2010
2011
2015
2020
2025
18 711 18,649
18 649 19,599
19 599 20,125
20 125 21,009
Projected Enrollment 18,711
ProjectedEnrollment
21 009

DistrictPopulation 129,842 131,530 138,504 146,823 153,550


CountyBirths
8924
9070
9001
9811 10553
K12 % of Pop
K12%ofPop.
14 4% 14.2%
14.4%
14 2% 14.2%
14 2% 13.7%
13 7% 13.7%
13 7%
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Births and Enrollment


The number of births in Snohomish Countyy in 2010 was 9001. The last time the births
were this low was in 2005. In addition, the birth rate in the county (births per 1000 residents)
was 11.8, the lowest number in well over a decade. If this trend should continue births
between 2011 and 2016 (classes eligible for school between 2016 and 2021) could well be
lower than expected.
p
At this point in time, there is reason to believe that these lower trends are temporary,
most likely related to a weak economy in which couples delay having children. Over time the
number of women in their peak
peak child bearing years (25-39)
(25 39) will reach a critical mass.
mass
Unless women start having many fewer children, or the county experiences a large net loss of
women in their child-bearing years, births are likely to increase between now and 2020. In
addition, continuing population growth in the county will insure that even if birth rates are
lower overall population growth will result in more births in the coming decade than in the
lower,
previous decade. As a result K-12 enrollment in the county is likely to increase between now
and 2020. The chart on page 27 shows the projected increase in the county K-12 population
based on general population growth and the future births.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Snohomish County Births


Next Years Kindergarten Cohort
12000
10000

9570

7862

8000

7390

8286 8224 8128


8062

7833

7629

7921

8110

8703
8592 8675
8352 8496 8545
8344

8924 9070

9795
9237

9001

6646 6801

6000
4000
2000

19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Actual and Projected Births From 5 years


Prior to the Enrollment Year
Cohorts for 2011 to 2015 are Based on Actual Births
Cohorts for 2016 to 2025 are based on Projected
j
Births
12000

Births in 2005 5 years earlier

10000
0000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Births

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

8924

9070

9570

9795

9237

9001

9152

9360

9486

9648

9811

9971

10137

10305

10476

10533

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Births and Enrollment


Everetts share of the countyy births (kindergarten
(
g
enrollment compared
p
to births from 5
years prior to the enrollment year) declined for the second straight year. With the benefit of
hindsight, it now appears that the marked increase in Everetts share of county births between
2005 and 2009 was largely due to the marked increase in new housing growth during this
pperiod. With the exception
p
of these years,
y
, Everetts share of both countyy births and cityy births
(kindergarten enrollment considered as a percentage of the births in the city of Everett) have
both been on a downward trend since the 1990s. This trend is expected to continue into the
next decade as the population ages.
Even though Everetts share of county and city births is likely to decline some over
time, kindergarten and elementary enrollment should still grow in the coming decade due to
larger birth cohorts. Everett will just enroll a smaller portion of a larger birth pie. For this
reason alone
alone, Everett
Everettss enrollment is expected to grow between now and 2020,
2020 even if new
home construction and sales remain at their currently low levels.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Everett: K Enrollment as a Percent of


Snohomish County Births
10000

35.00%

9000
8000

7629

7921

8110

8352

8496

8545

8703

8344

8592

8675

8924

9070
30.00%

25.00%

7000
6000
5000

20.00%
17.3%

16.6%

16.5%

16.4%

16.8%

16.3%

16.5%

16.8%

17.4%

18.0%
16 5% 16.2%
16.5%

4000
3000

15.00%

10.00%

2000
5 00%
5.00%
1000
0

0.00%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Births 5 Years Previous

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Pct of Cohort

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Projected K-12 Snohomish County Public School Enrollment


Based on Births and a Forecast of the
County Population Using Census Data
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
130 000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

109,457

112,562

2010 E
Enrollll

2015

117,472

2020

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Housing and Population Growth


According to the latest census data the Everett School District added 8,853 housing units
(single family and multi-family) in the past decade. Not all of these units are occupied however.
Data from the 2000 and 2010 Census shows that the District housing stock increased from 42,880
occupied units in the 2000 Census to 50,140 occupied units in the 2010 census, a gain of 7,260
units. But in 2010 6% of the housing units in the Everett School District were vacant.
The number of public school children per household has also declined in the past decade
from about 43 students per 100 homes in 2000, to approximately 37 students per 100 households
in 2010. This reflects the aging
g g of the ppopulation
p
in certain neighborhoods
g
throughout
g
the
District. Enrollment growth in the past decade was almost certainly driven primarily by K-12
population growth in new housing development. As development has slowed down, enrollment
growth has slowed as well. Based on the number of houses added, and the District student
generation rates from 2010,, we can estimate that the District ggained approximately
g
pp
y 280 students a
year from new housing in the past decade. And given that estimate we can also surmise that the
District lost about 240 students a year from existing housing due to graduation and migration.
This resulted in a net gain of about 40 students a year, which over 10 years resulted in an
enrollment increase of about 400 students ((between 2000 and 2010))

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

OccupiedHousingUnitsandStudentsPerHousehold
2000 and 2010 Census Data
2000and2010CensusData
1.00
70 000
70,000

0.90

60,000
50,000
40,000

0.80

50,140

0.70

42,880

0.60

0.43

0.37

0.50

30,000

0.40

18,239

20,000

18,711

0.30
0 20
0.20

10,000

0.10

0.00

Census2000

2010Census

OccupiedHousingUnits

42,880

50,140

EverettEnrollmentOctP223

18,239

18,711

0.43

0.37

StudentsPerHouse

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Housing and Population Growth


As the previous discussion makes clear new housing development has been an
important
p
factor in Everetts recent growth.
g
And the latest data on new home construction and
sales shows that the numbers continue to drop from the trends that were seen between 2000
and 2007. The latest data from New Home Trends suggests that sales of new construction
single family homes in 2011 are on track to be the lower any of the previous 4 years (Page 32).
These trends are not expected to improve much in the coming year, and long range
projections of housing growth show a mixed picture. Forecasts from the Puget Sound
Regional Council for Everett neighborhoods suggest that the number of homes added by 2020
will be similar to the number added in the past decade (just over 8000 units single family and
multi-family). But data from New Home Trends shows that the number of new construction
homes either for sale, or planned for future construction and sale, is just over half that total.
There will no doubt be more projects proposed in future years, but as of today, it does not
appear that new home sales and construction in the next decade will match the pace of the
previous decade. As a result, it seems likely that future growth in K-12 enrollment will be
driven primarily by increases in births and population, and to lesser degree by new home
construction and sales in different neighborhoods throughout the District. At the school level,
new home construction will likely be a larger factor,
factor influencing how much growth or decline
is seen in various neighborhoods.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Quarterly Sales of New Construction


Si l F
Single
Family
il H
Homes IIn th
the E
Everett
tt S
School
h l Di
District
ti t
2007-2011
Source: New Home Trends Database
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011

Single Family 94 114

66

65

78

75

51

38

56

86

77

70

74

86

37

28

70

49

32

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

14

Sales of NEW CONSTRUCTION Single Family


Homes by Year in the Everett School District
2007-2011*
Source: New Home Trends Database
500
400

339
289

300

251

229

165

200

190

100
0
2007

2008

2009

Single Family Homes Sold

2010

2011

Projected

*The 2011 estimate is as of November 19th 2011. The forecast of 190 is based on the trends of the
past few years and the most recent quarterly sales figures.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Proposed Housing Development:


Number of Units Projected for the Next Decade
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000

Puget Sound Regional


Council Neighborhood
Forecast

New Home Trends Data


Pipeline Data

7,898

7,000

5,679

6 000
6,000

4,501

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1 000
1,000
0

BasedonPSRCNeighborhoods

ProposedforFuture
ConstructionandSale

ProposedIncluding"Onhold"
and"Withdrawn"

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Enrollment Projections
The previous sections suggest that enrollment in the Everett School District is likely in
increase in the coming decade,
decade though perhaps by a lesser amount than was assumed in
previous years reports. Estimates for 2020 suggest that enrollment will be just above or just
below the 20,000 mark. But if birth rate trends continue to be low, and new home construction
and sales continue at a slow pace, it is quite possible that enrollment could be relatively flat in
the coming decade even with the increase in births
births.
The final forecast model was based on projected births, assumptions about the Districts
share of the birth cohort going forward (forecast to be lower over time) and grade to grade
trends as an initial first step. These numbers were then adjusted to take account of projected
changes in housing and population growth so that the enrollment over time would align with
projected change in the demographic trends within the District, discussed in the previous
sections. Low and High range alternatives were created to show what might happen if
population and K-12 growth were to be lower or higher than projected in the original model.

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Low, Medium, and High Range Forecasts


2012 2021
2012-2021
Based on Kindergarten Trends, Grade-to-Grade growth and an adjustment for
projected future changes in population growth and housing.
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
Oct_09

Oct_10

Oct_11

Oct_12

Oct_13

Oct_14

Oct_15

Oct_16

Oct_17

Oct_18

Oct_19

Oct_20

Oct 21

Low Grow th

18828

18711

18649

18444

18443

18325

18341

18414

18446

18574

18679

18832

18948

M di
Medium
(R
(Recommended)
d d)

18828

18711

18649

18608

18745

18754

18892

19087

19230

19463

19665

19905

20090

High Grow th

18828

18711

18649

18856

19170

19346

19634

19971

20242

20598

20906

21242

21508

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Everettt Enrollment Historyy ((October Headcount))

Projection
j

Birth Data

Projected Births

Birth Year

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Everett Births

2154

2150

2102

2007

2197

2276

2338

2450

2556

2260

2390

2334

2387

2419

2460

2502

2543

% of Cohort

64.6%

66.8%

66.7%

74.4%

71.2%

64.5%

62.7%

60.0%

60.9%

65.4%

65.3%

64.9%

64.4%

64.1%

63.1%

62.3%

61.3%

County Births

8545

8703

8344

8592

8675

8924

9070

9570

9795

9237

9001

9152

9360

9486

9648

9811

9971

Pct of Cohort

16.3%

16.5%

16.8%

17.4%

18.0%

16.5%

16.2%

15.4%

15.9%

16.0%

17.3%

16.6%

16.4%

16.3%

16.1%

15.9%

15.6%

Revised

K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Change
Percent

Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11


1391 1436
1403
1494 1565 1468 1467
1457 1497
1467
1452 1549 1595 1496
1395 1434
1491
1490 1425 1502 1542
1395 1419
1453
1453 1500 1403 1477
1364 1401
1418
1462 1445 1427 1392
1344 1398
1395
1426 1481 1425 1424
1403 1335
1425
1383 1425 1499 1410
1430 1419
1370
1424 1380 1407 1471
1443 1430
1443
1370 1426 1379 1403
1490 1829
1822
1492 1389 1432 1396
1461 1512
1464
1476 1438 1365 1401
1678 1373
1373
1666 1384 1365 1313
1049
1155 1421 1444 1457
1144 1055
18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649
301
1.7%

143
0.8%

35
0.2%

170
0.9%

85 -117
-62
0.5% -0.6% -0.3%

Enrollment by Level
K-5
6-8
9-12

8346
4276
5773

Projections
Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
K
1470 1558 1478 1561 1515 1538 1550 1552 1558 1559
1
1503 1501 1590 1509 1605 1558 1581 1594 1596 1602
2
1459 1494 1492 1581 1511 1607 1560 1583 1596 1598
3
1523 1455 1490 1488 1588 1518 1614 1567 1590 1603
4
1450 1509 1441 1476 1484 1584 1514 1610 1563 1586
5
1389 1441 1499 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515 1611 1564
6
1422 1382 1434 1492 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515 1611
7
1393 1415 1375 1427 1492 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515
8
1469 1383 1405 1365 1424 1489 1429 1474 1482 1582
9
1420 1480 1393 1415 1385 1444 1510 1450 1495 1503
10
1364 1381 1439 1355 1386 1356 1414 1479 1420 1464
11
1360 1318 1334 1390 1318 1348 1319 1376 1439 1381
12
1386 1428 1384 1401 1470 1394 1425 1395 1455 1522
18608 18745 18754 18892 19087 19230 19463 19665 19905 20090
-41
-0.2%

137
0.7%

9
0.0%

138
0.7%

195
1.0%

142
0.7%

233
1.2%

203
1.0%

240
1.2%

185
0.9%

8958
4180
5607

8990
4214
5550

9047
4284
5561

9180
4348
5559

9290
4398
5542

9404
4391
5668

9421
4544
5700

9514
4582
5809

9512
4708
5870

Enrollment by Level

8585
4184
5769

8627
4238
5708

8777
4177
5789

8965
4231
5632

8820
4285
5606

8798
4284
5567

K-5
6-8
9-12

8794
4284
5530

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Everettt Enrollment History (October Headcount)

Low Projection

Birth Data
Birth Year

Projected Births
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Everett Births

2154

2150

2102

2007

2197

2276

2338

2450

2556

2260

2390

2334

2387

2419

2460

2502

2543

% of Cohort

64.6%

66.8%

66.7%

74.4%

71.2%

64.5%

62.7%

60.0%

60.9%

65.4%

65.3%

64.9%

64.4%

64.1%

63.1%

62.3%

61.3%

County Births

8545

8703

8344

8592

8675

8924

9070

9570

9795

9237

9001

9152

9360

9486

9648

9811

9971

P t off Cohort
Pct
Ch t

16 3%
16.3%

16 5%
16.5%

16 8%
16.8%

17 4%
17.4%

18 0%
18.0%

16 5%
16.5%

16 2%
16.2%

15 0%
15.0%

15 7%
15.7%

15 8%
15.8%

17 2%
17.2%

16 4%
16.4%

16 3%
16.3%

16 2%
16.2%

15 9%
15.9%

15 7%
15.7%

15 5%
15.5%

Revised

K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Change
Percent

3 yr

Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11


1391 1436 1403 1494 1565 1468 1467
1457 1497 1467 1452 1549 1595 1496
1395 1434 1491 1490 1425 1502 1542
1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477
1364 1401 1418 1462 1445 1427 1392
1344 1398 1395 1426 1481 1425 1424
1403 1335 1425 1383 1425 1499 1410
1430 1419 1370 1424 1380 1407 1471
1443 1430 1443 1370 1426 1379 1403
1490 1829 1822 1492 1389 1432 1396
1461 1512 1464 1476 1438 1365 1401
1678 1373 1373 1666 1384 1365 1313
1144 1055 1049 1155 1421 1444 1457
18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649
301
1.7%

143
0.8%

35
0.2%

170
0.9%

85 -117
-62
0.5% -0.6% -0.3%

8585
4184
5769

8627
4238
5708

8777
4177
5789

8965
4231
5632

Enrollment by Level
K-5
66-88
9-12

8346
4276
5773

Projections
Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
K
1433 1542 1463 1546 1500 1523 1534 1537 1542 1544
1
1488 1449 1559 1479 1574 1527 1550 1562 1565 1570
2
1445 1465 1426 1534 1466 1560 1514 1536 1548 1551
3
1508 1427 1447 1408 1526 1458 1552 1506 1528 1540
4
1436 1479 1399 1419 1390 1507 1440 1533 1487 1509
5
1376 1413 1455 1376 1406 1377 1493 1427 1519 1473
6
1412 1360 1396 1438 1365 1395 1366 1481 1416 1507
7
1384 1395 1344 1380 1427 1354 1384 1355 1470 1405
8
1459 1365 1376 1325 1366 1413 1341 1370 1341 1455
9
1413 1462 1368 1379 1337 1379 1426 1354 1383 1354
10
1358 1367 1415 1324 1344 1303 1344 1390 1319 1348
11
1353 1305 1314 1360 1282 1301 1261 1301 1345 1277
12
1379 1414 1363 1373 1431 1349 1369 1327 1369 1415
18444 18443 18325 18341 18414 18446 18574 18679 18832 18948

Wght

-205
-1.1%

-1
0.0%

-118
-0.6%

16
0.1%

74
0.4%

31
0.2%

129
0.7%

105
0.6%

153
0.8%

115
0.6%

8775
4120
5548

8749
4116
5460

8762
4143
5436

8862
4158
5394

8952
4162
5332

9083
4091
5400

9101
4206
5372

9189
4227
5416

9187
4367
5394

Enrollment by Level

8820
4285
5606

8798
4284
5567

K-5
66-88
9-12

8686
4255
5503

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Everettt Enrollment History (October Headcount)

High Projection

Birth Data
Birth Year

Projected Births
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Everett Births

2154

2150

2102

2007

2197

2276

2338

2450

2556

2260

2390

2334

2387

2419

2460

2502

2543

% of Cohort

64.6%

66.8%

66.7%

74.4%

71.2%

64.5%

62.7%

60.0%

60.9%

65.4%

65.3%

64.9%

64.4%

64.1%

63.1%

62.3%

61.3%

County Births

8545

8703

8344

8592

8675

8924

9070

9570

9795

9237

9001

9152

9360

9486

9648

9811

9971

P t off Cohort
Pct
C h t

16 3%
16.3%

16 5%
16.5%

16 8%
16.8%

17 4%
17.4%

18 0%
18.0%

16 5%
16.5%

16 2%
16.2%

16 1%
16.1%

16 1%
16.1%

16 2%
16.2%

17 5%
17.5%

16 7%
16.7%

16 6%
16.6%

16 5%
16.5%

16 3%
16.3%

16 0%
16.0%

15 8%
15.8%

Revised

K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
Change
Percent

Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11


1391 1436 1403 1494 1565 1468 1467
1457 1497 1467 1452 1549 1595 1496
1395 1434 1491 1490 1425 1502 1542
1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477
1364 1401 1418 1462 1445 1427 1392
1344 1398 1395 1426 1481 1425 1424
1403 1335 1425 1383 1425 1499 1410
1430 1419 1370 1424 1380 1407 1471
1443 1430 1443 1370 1426 1379 1403
1490 1829 1822 1492 1389 1432 1396
1461 1512 1464 1476 1438 1365 1401
1678 1373 1373 1666 1384 1365 1313
1144 1055 1049 1155 1421 1444 1457
18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649
301
1.7%

143
0.8%

35
0.2%

170
0.9%

85 -117
-62
0.5% -0.6% -0.3%

8585
4184
5769

8627
4238
5708

8777
4177
5789

8965
4231
5632

Enrollment by Level
K-5
66-88
9-12

8346
4276
5773

Projections
Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
K
1544 1573 1493 1577 1531 1553 1565 1568 1574 1575
1
1518 1592 1622 1539 1638 1590 1613 1626 1628 1634
2
1474 1524 1599 1629 1556 1656 1608 1631 1644 1646
3
1538 1485 1536 1611 1653 1579 1680 1632 1655 1668
4
1465 1539 1486 1537 1623 1665 1591 1693 1644 1667
5
1403 1470 1545 1491 1553 1640 1683 1608 1711 1662
6
1436 1410 1478 1553 1506 1569 1657 1700 1624 1728
7
1407 1444 1417 1486 1569 1521 1585 1674 1717 1641
8
1484 1411 1448 1421 1498 1582 1533 1598 1687 1731
9
1435 1510 1436 1473 1456 1535 1621 1571 1637 1728
10
1378 1410 1483 1411 1457 1440 1518 1603 1554 1619
11
1374 1345 1376 1447 1386 1432 1415 1491 1575 1527
12
1400 1457 1427 1459 1545 1480 1529 1511 1592 1682
18856 19170 19346 19634 19971 20242 20598 20906 21242 21508
207
1.1%

315
1.7%

175
0.9%

288
1.5%

337
1.7%

272
1.4%

356
1.8%

308
1.5%

336
1.6%

267
1.3%

9183
4265
5722

9281
4343
5722

9384
4460
5790

9554
4573
5844

9683
4672
5887

9740
4775
6083

9758
4972
6176

9856
5028
6358

9852
5100
6556

Enrollment by Level

8820
4285
5606

8798
4284
5567

K-5
66-88
9-12

8942
4327
5587

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

School Projections
Projections by school and grade level were also completed and balanced to the overall
District medium range
g pprojection.
j
School grade
g
level projections
p j
are generally
g
y less accurate than
District grade level projections due to the smaller numbers used to estimate trends, and because
program changes and student choice can affect the allocation of students independent of
demographic trends. To the extent possible these projections take account of waiver information,
especially
p
y at the entry
y level ggrades. At the other ggrades it is assumed that students who attend a
school outside of their neighborhood will remain at that school in subsequent years.
School enrollments were projected based on a consideration of the current enrollment, each
schoolss share of the entry grade enrollment (K,
school
(K 6,
6 and 9) and based on a consideration of how
continuing students move up through the grades. At the secondary level, consideration was also
given to how students feed from elementary into middle school, and from middle school into high
school. The trends of the past 3 years were used to allocate future enrollment for the period
between 2012 and 2016
2016. These numbers were then adjusted to account for projected changes in
population and housing for different service areas. These adjustments were based on projected
changes in new home development derived from an examination of New Home Trends data and
projected population growth for neighborhoods obtained from the Puget Sound Regional Council.
The following pages provide a summary of the projections by school.
school A separate document
contains the detailed numbers by school and grade level.
Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Projection Summary by School

Medium Growth Projections

OCT_06 OCT_07 OCT_08 OCT_09 OCT_10 OCT_11 OCT_12 OCT_13 OCT_14 OCT_15 OCT_16
Cedar Wood
Emerson
Forest View
Garfield
Hawthorne
Jackson
Jefferson
Lowell
Madison
Mill Creek
Monroe
Pennyy Creek
Silver Firs
Silver Lake
View Ridge
Whittier
Woodside
Oth
Other
Totals

734
599
405
430
354
513
471
474
589
577
768
512
571
533
429
580
47
8586

528
587
392
392
442
327
487
479
469
673
582
691
460
484
562
437
577
59
8628

497
596
480
360
461
344
506
462
470
691
599
720
495
453
555
426
598
64
8777

500
584
519
369
470
364
502
493
449
678
572
766
526
483
570
410
645
65
8965

518
602
535
336
507
325
498
449
451
707
504
724
560
485
556
381
626
56
8820

548
599
538
331
467
359
545
476
464
684
470
725
519
481
492
415
631
54
8798

561
594
544
329
461
360
559
481
459
690
450
724
516
486
489
405
637
50
8794

592
600
588
330
458
374
563
481
462
691
438
724
529
506
478
419
676
47
8958

634
604
602
338
459
374
556
483
460
673
425
721
518
516
456
427
697
48
8990

660
605
597
334
458
383
557
486
462
665
434
710
517
521
440
434
740
44
9047

663
613
607
337
465
397
561
492
464
678
432
731
519
527
438
446
765
46
9180

Numbers may not add to exact totals due to rounding

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

Projection Summary by School

Medium Growth Projections

OCT_06 OCT_07 OCT_08 OCT_09 OCT_10 OCT_11 OCT_12 OCT_13 OCT_14 OCT_15 OCT_16
Eisenhower
Evergreen
G
Gateway
Heatherwood
North
Other
Totals

716
937
1023
842
645
20
4183

759
965
1069
805
616
20
4234

852
1058
678
853
707
29
4177

893
1064
666
886
693
30
4232

885
1067
674
946
681
33
4286

882
1045
734
919
677
27
4284

870
1011
787
924
664
28
4284

829
978
775
933
644
21
4180

829
952
787
986
636
25
4214

811
969
825
1009
646
25
4284

813
951
869
1048
641
26
4348

CHS
EHS
JHS
Sequoia
Other
Totals

1814
1706
1908
271
71
5770

1804
1663
1890
295
59
5711

1842
1608
1994
282
63
5789

1787
1558
1929
313
44
5631

1872
1482
1904
303
45
5606

1856
1423
1926
324
38
5567

1858
1393
1920
312
47
5530

1884
1377
1976
318
51
5607

1840
1362
1982
311
55
5550

1847
1361
1991
310
52
5561

1842
1357
1992
317
51
5559

Totals

18539

18573

18743

18828

18712

18649

18608

18745

18754

18892

19087

Numbers may not add to exact totals due to rounding

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011