Scanning Horizon

SCENARIO PLANNING
S CANNING T HE H ORIZON
Trends, Developments & Innovations Impacting the Future of Child and Family Services
Patrice A. Heinz
The Ultimate Agency Advantage
Copyright 2005 by the Alliance for Children and Families. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations embedded in critical articles or reviews.
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Introduction Page 1 Who Will Be the Clients of Nonprofit Organizations? Page 2 How Will Child and Family Services Be Designed? Page 10 How Will Child and Family Services Be Delivered? Page 12 How Will Child and Family Service Organizations Be Funded? Page 15 How Will Government and Society Impact Organizational Capacity? Page 18 Ten Trends Shaping the World Page 22
Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon
I NTRODUCTION
In his book, The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz argues that scenarios as a planning tool work because people recognize the truth in a description of future events[the description] resonates in some ways with what they already know, and then leads them from that resonance to reperceive [sic] the world. Schwartz further instructs that observations about what is occurring in the real world must be built into the story being developed by scenario planners and the only way that can occur is to sample evidence from the world around us. This report is our attempt at sampling the world in which nonprofit child and family serving organizations operate. It includes historical data and projections or forecasts gleaned from census reports, surveys, articles, publications, and personal interviews with nonprofit leaders, observers, outsiders, and fringe thinkers. It provides, we hope, a framework of information that local, regional and national planning groups can use to explore a central question: What will the future look like a decade from now for children and families, and the nonprofit organizations that serve them? Gauging the future requires that we first identify the core segments of nonprofit businesses mostly likely to be impacted by emerging trends. For the purposes of this report, we have identified five, and phrased them as questions: Who will be the clients of nonprofit organizations? Information we explore in this topic includes population statistics, the changing profiles of the American family, child well-being indicators, children in foster care, and economic indicators. How will services be designed? Our discussion here focuses on the emerging impact of science, medicine and biotechnology on traditional child and family services. How will services be delivered? Our examination centers on revolutions occurring within the technology field and how the future of technology will influence nonprofit service delivery mechanisms and structure How will nonprofits be funded or financed? We investigate patterns of charitable and foundation giving, venture philanthropy, government financing and other sources of financial support for nonprofits. How will government and society impact organizational capacity? We consider emerging public policy priorities, shifts in political philosophy and practice, increased demands for accountability and transparency, and other policy and workforce issues likely to affect, in some way, the abilities of nonprofits to continue their work in the next decade. We conclude our scan by offering a synopsis of the economic, societal and environmental trends that futurist Marvin Cetron and science writer Owen Davies believe will reshape the world in the next two decades and beyond. Thought admittedly widening the scope beyond the immediate operating environments of U.S. nonprofits, we present the information in the hopes that nonprofit child and family service providers will come to understand that what changes the larger world around them, will fundamentally change their world within. A word about our research and compilation of results: we took Peter Schwartz at his word, literally, and sampled the environments around nonprofits. No environmental scan can legitimately and authentically cover every topic, report every emerging trend or consider every possibility or implication. Within the scope of our experience, and the expertise of our informants and sources, we attempted to identify those trends and indicators that we believe will have the most significant impact on nonprofit child and family services. We present this report admittedly knowing that critical, now-just-emerging issues will be left out of the reporting and discussion contained here. (Indeed as this report was being developed, Congress intervention in the Terri Schiavo right-to-live-or-die case raised profound implications for public policy intrusion into family privacy matters, the expanded role for religious conservatives in formulating public policy on a variety of issues, and the influence of Congress over the Judicial branch of government.) That said we anticipate this document will be a work in progress over the next 6-12 months and welcome any additional observations on the exceptional, the notable, or the brilliant in the world surrounding us.
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POPULATION SHIFTS AND PROJECTIONS1

As of April 1, 2000, the population of the United States stood at 281,421,906 people. This represents a 13.1% increase (about 32.7 million people) in growth since 1990 the largest numerical increase of any decade in U.S. history. By 2010, the U.S. population is expected to grow another 10% to more than 308 million people, and by 2020, it is expected to hit nearly 336 million people overall, a 19% increase in just 20 years. The 1990s was the first decade when no states population declined, suggesting that there has been no dramatic shift in the migration of people between states. However, it appears there has been movement of populations within states as urban areas grow larger and rural areas shrink. Since 1990, more than half of the U.S. population has lived in metropolitan areas of at least 1 million people. In 2000, more than one-third of the states had 75 percent or more of their populations living in metropolitan areas. Still, there is a small but emerging trend of people returning to less congested living: in 2001, 5.6 million people left cities across the U.S. to return to rural areas. Historical patterns for the last decade aside, some demographers believe the U.S. is positioned to experience a massive migration to the south during the next two decades. In an article titled Manifest Destiny 3.02 author Jim Taylor forecasts that a third migration of 50 million people will leave the northern states for southern: People from the South who left to work the auto plants are retiring and heading home to the land of their fathers. Joining them are corporate transplants, the urban poor and those looking for an uncomplicated life as a reward for years of hard work. Consequently, he comments, the South will expe1 2 3
rience an astonishing rate of community formation, re-industrialization, and cultural development in short, a substantial improvement in the economic base of many southern cities. Taylor does point out however, that as this migration grows in strength, it will impose significant demands on southern states for increased community services, on-demand health care, stateof-the-art infrastructure (highways, etc.), environmental protections, and diversified cultural and occupational opportunities. He also acknowledges the issues this migration to the south will stimulate in the north: the North may well be stripped of people it has forecasted for health care, tax base, infrastructure and capital planning. The disappearance of 30 million or so middle class and affluent households will severely test Northern resources to build their economies, provide for their less well-off citizens, and, perhaps most important, strip the North of regionally-biased capital.
GENDER PROFILES AND PROJECTIONS

Gender patterns remained constant since the last census indeed they have remained constant for the last half of the 20th century. Prior to 1950, the male population outnumbered the female population. Since then, the female population has outnumbered the male population. (In a bit of a contrast, Black females outnumbered Black males in every decade of the century.) The trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
AGE PROFILES AND PROJECTIONS3

On the whole, the U.S. population will continue to grow older; the age boom will replace the baby boom. In 2000 adults ages
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2000 Census, Population Estimates and Projections. Available at http://www.census.gov/ Retrieved Dec. 18, 2004 Taylor, Dr. Jim. Manifest Destiny 3.0. American Demographics, September 2004 pp 29-34 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census, Population Estimates and Projections, reported by age. Available at http://www.census.gov/ Retrieved Jan. 7, 2005
Alliance for Children and Families
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2010 and 5.4% in 2020. Hispanics (of any race) very nearly matched the Black population in 2000 they accounted for 12.6% of the population. The Hispanic population is also projected to grow more rapidly than Blacks in the coming years, reaching 15.5% of the U.S. population by 2010 and 17.8% by 2020. (Interestingly, in the 2000 census, Hispanics counted were much younger than non-Hispanics.) According to a U.S. Census report, Population Projections for States by age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025: 6 The White population, the largest of the five race/ethnic groups, is projected to be the slowest-growing during the 1995 to 2025 projection period. During this period, it is projected to account for at least one-fifth of the absolute increase in the Nations population in all regions except in the Northeast (where this group declines in size). Sixty-seven percent of the 16 million Whites added to the U.S. population will be located in the South. Over the 30 years, the Black population is projected to be the second slowest-growing in all regions, except the South where it will rank third. Sixty-four percent of the 12 million Blacks added to the United States during 1995 to 2025 will be in the South. The Asian population is the fastest-growing group in all regions. Asians are the fourth largest of the race and Hispanic origin groups in all regions except the West where they rank third. The Asian population is projected to have the greatest gains in the West with an increase of 7 million persons (56 percent of the total added to the U.S. Asian population during 1995 to 2025) and in the Northeast with an increase of 2 million. The American Indian population, the least populous group, is projected to be the third fastest-growing population in all regions but the South during 1995 to 2025 where it ranked fourth. Nearly half of the 0.8 million American Indians added to the Nations American Indian population will be located in the West. The Hispanic origin population is projected to increase rapidly over the 1995 to 2025 projection period, accounting for 44 percent of the growth in the Nations population (32 million Hispanics out of a total of 72 million persons added to the Nations population). The Hispanic origin population is the second fastest-growing population, after Asians, in every region over the 30 year period. In 1995, States with the largest share of the Nations Whites were California, New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
45-64 accounted for 22.1% of the population; by 2010 that group will make up 26.2% then decline slightly to 24.9% by 2020. Older adults ages 65-84 who made up 10.9% of the population in 2000 will comprise 11.0% in 2010 and 14.1% in 2020. The elderly, those living past age 85, totaled 1.5% of the population in 2000 and are expected to comprise 2.0% and 2.2% of the census in 2010 and 2020 respectively. By comparison, in the 2000 census, children ages 0-4 made up just 6.8% of the population; children 5-19 made up 21.7% and adults ages 20-44 accounted for 36.9%. Those percentages are expected to remain relatively constant over the next 15 years for children ages 0-4: Census Bureau projections estimate this age group will account for 6.9% of the population in 2010 and 6.8% in 2020. Children ages 5-19 are expected to account for 20.0% in 2010 and 19.6% in 2020, while adults in the 20-44 age group are projected to decline from 36.9% in 2000 to 33.8% of the population in 2010 and to 32.3% in 2020. This aging of America takes on greater significance when one observes population patterns over the past century. Comparing 1900 census data to 2000 data, it is clear the age distribution of the U.S. population changed from relatively young to relatively old. At the beginning and the middle of the century, the most populous five-year age group was under age five. In 2000, people age 35 to 39 years outnumbered all other age groups. Over time, the population age 65 years and older has increased more than tenfold between 1900 and 2000. Since the early 1960s, children have formed an ever-smaller proportion of our total national population, declining from 36 percent in 1960 to 26 percent in 1990 and remaining stable through 2000. Since 2001, children have made up 25 percent of the total population. This percentage is expected to decline slightly to 24 percent by 2020.4
POPULATION AND RACE5

By 2000, about one out of every four Americans was of a race other than White. The White population grew more slowly than every other race group in the second half of the 20th century. By contrast, the Hispanic population more than doubled in size in the 20 years from 1980 to 2000. In 2000, non-Hispanic Whites accounted for 69.4% of the population; they are expected to comprise 65.1% in 2010 and 61.3% in 2020. Blacks totaled 12.7% of the population in 2000; their percentages are expected to grow slightly to 13.1% in 2010 and 13.5% in 2020. Asians accounted for 3.8% in 2000; their numbers are projected to grow to 4.6% of the population in
4 5 6
Data for 2002-2003: Child Trends calculations using data from the Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau. (June 14, 2004). Annual Estimates of the Population by Sex and Selected Age Groups for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 (NC-EST2003-02). Available at: http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/NC-EST2003-as.html. Retrieved January 4, 2005 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census, Population Estimates and Projections, reported by race. Available at http://www.census.gov/ Retrieved Jan. 8, 2005 U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Projections for States by age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025. Available at http://www.census.gov/ Retrieved April 6, 2005
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of immigrants comprise one in five students and one in four low-income children.
Among these five States in 2025 only Texas and Florida are projected to have a larger share of the Nations White population than in 1995 (compared to almost no change for California and decreases for New York and Pennsylvania). The State of New York, with nearly 3 million Blacks, had the largest share of the Nations Black population (8 percent) in 1995. Other States with large shares of the Nations Black population are Texas, California, Georgia, and Florida. Looking ahead, Texas (after 2005), Georgia (after 2010), and Florida (after 2020) are expected to have the largest population gains among Blacks and to replace New York as the State with the largest share of the Nations Black population. In 2025, California, with an expected 41 percent of the Nations 21 million Asians, is expected to remain number one with the largest share, followed by New York, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Texas. Together these States will account for more than half of the Nations Asian population in 2025. During 1995, Oklahoma had the largest share of the Nations American Indians (257,000 or 13 percent). The other leading States with the largest proportion of the Nations American Indian population in rank order are Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Alaska. By 2025, Oklahoma and Arizona still rank number one and two with the largest share of the Nations American Indians. However, New Mexico moves ahead of California, and Washington moves up to be the fifth most populous State among American Indians. About 45 percent of the American Indian population is projected to reside in these five States by 2025. In 1995, 74 percent of the Nations Hispanics resided in five States. California with 9 million had the largest share of the Nations Hispanic population followed by Texas, New York, Florida, and Illinois. Looking ahead, Californias Hispanic population will more than double over the projection period to 21 million, representing 36 percent of the total Hispanic population in 2025.
Settlements of new immigrants are more widely dispersed.

Historically, immigrants settled mainly in California, New York, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, and Illinois. Between 1990 and 2000, however, the foreign-born population more than doubled across a wide band of states in the Southeast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain region. At the same time, the share of the immigrant population in the six earlier destination states fell from 75 percent to 68 percent.7 Public benefits do not appear to have driven these migration choices. In fact, most of the new growth states dont have strong safety nets for immigrant families. Compared with the immigrant population as a whole, recent immigrants to these states have fewer marketable skills, lower incomes, a weaker command of English, and are more likely to need benefits and services. Yet, the new growth states have fewer experienced bilingual teachers and immigrant organizations, and many restrict legal immigrants access to the social safety net.8
Numbers of naturalized citizens rising

Since the mid 1990s, the number of naturalized citizens has risen from 6.5 million to 11 million. The upward curve began when roughly 3 million immigrants who legalized under a 1986 law became eligible to naturalize and when welfare and immigration reform tied access to public benefits to citizenship. Ten million legal immigrants are now or will soon be eligible to naturalize, but many face barriers to naturalization, such as limited English skills, lack of formal education, and low incomes. Still, few public policies promote naturalization.9
LIFE EXPECTANCY
The life expectancy of newborns has increased by more than six years since 1970, to a record high of 77.6 years in 2003 (preliminary estimate). However, overall life expectancy for black newborns is still five years less than life expectancy for white newborns (72.8 versus 78.0 years, respectively), although the difference in 2003 was the smallest ever recorded. A large portion of the increase in life expectancy has been due to decreases in mortality during childhood. Overall, mortality rates for children older than age one declined considerably during the 20th century, due in large part to advances in medical
IMMIGRATION PATTERNS
Census 2000 revealed that foreign-born individuals now number more than 34 million, or about 11 percent of the total U.S. population. While lower than the historic high of 15 percent in 1900, the share has more than doubled since 1970, when it reached a low of 5 percent. Today, immigrants comprise one in nine U.S. residents and one in four low-wage workers. Children
7 8 9
The Dispersal of Immigrants in the 1990s. 2002. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. Immigrant Families and Workers: Facts and Perspectives. Brief No. 2. Retrieved Jan. 9, 2005 http://www.urban.org Fix, Michael, Wendy Zimmermann, Jeffrey Passel, The Integration of Immigrant Families in the United States. 2001. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. Retrieved Jan. 9, 2005 http://www.urban.org Fix, Michael E. and Jeffrey S. Passel. 2003. A New Citizenship Day. Commentary on the Urban Institute website. Retrieved Jan. 9, 2005 http://www.urban.org
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21 percent in 1970. By contrast, 60 percent of households had one or two people in 2003, up from 46 percent in 1970. More people live alone. The proportion of households consisting of one person living alone increased from 17 percent in 1970 to 26 percent in 2003. With increasing age, 75+ years, both men and women were more likely to live alone. Young adults are remaining unmarried longer. The median ages at first marriage were 25.3 years for women and 27.1 years for men in 2003, up from 20.8 years and 23.2 years, respectively, in 1970. As a result, the proportion of young, never-married adults has risen dramatically. For women, ages 20 to 24, it more than doubled, from 36 percent to 75 percent; and for women ages 30 to 34, it more than tripled, from 6 percent to 23 percent. The number of unmarried people living together grew steadily. There were 4.6 million opposite-sex, unmarried-partner households in 2003. These households accounted for 4.2 percent of all households, up from 2.9 percent in 1996. Compared to married women, unmarried women were more likely to have higher levels of education than their partners. In unmarried-partner households, 29 percent of women had higher levels of education than their partners, compared with 22 percent of wives in married-couple households. There is a small, but apparently strong core of stay-at-home parents. The United States had an estimated 5.5 million stayat-home parents in 2003 5.4 million moms and 98,000 dads. Among these stay-at-home parents, 42 percent of mothers and 29 percent of fathers had their own children under age three living with them. Thirty-nine percent of stay-at-home mothers and 30 percent of stay-at-home fathers were under age 35. (Note: the 2003 Current Population Report contained the Census Bureaus first ever assessment of stay-at-home parents so comparisons with prior years is not possible.) The decades-long decline in the proportion of married-couple families with children leveled off during the mid-1990s. After declining sharply between 1970 and 1995, the proportion of family groups with children that were married-couple families has remained stable, at about 68 percent.
technology, improved socioeconomic conditions, and improvements in water and food safety and sanitation practices.10 It is estimated that 1.3% of children born in 2002 (the latest year for which such estimates are available) will die before they reach the age of 20, compared with 10.9% of children in the early 1930s.11 The mortality rate for children is expected to continue to decline during the next ten years. While females have higher life expectancies at birth than males, the gender gap in life expectancy has narrowed since 1979, when the gap was at a peak of 7.8 years. In 2003, the gender gap was 5.3 years (based on preliminary estimates), down from 5.4 in 200212 Recent increases in life expectancy have been especially pronounced among black males, whose average life expectancy increased from 64.5 years in 1990 to 69.2 years in 2003 (preliminary estimate), following a decline in life expectancy in the late 1980s. Some of this increase reflects declines in homicide rates among black males during the mid- and late-1990s. Despite these increases, however, black children are still almost twice as likely as white children to die before reaching age 20. Slightly more than two percent of black children born in 2002 were expected to die before reaching age 20, compared with just over one percent of white children born in the same year. If the life expectancy upward trend continues, the potential implications are enormous. With the baby boomers already causing a bulge in the older population segments, even a small increase in life expectancy will put additional pressure on already strained public resources like Medicare, social security and other services to the aging.
THE CHANGING PROFILE OF THE A MERICAN FAMILY

There are numerous ways to profile the American Family as a unit size of the family household, composition, age, and roles of its members. In nearly every category, the American Family has seen substantive change in the last three decades. According to the report, Americas Families and Living Arrangements 2003:13 There are more households than ever before, but size of the average American household has declined dramatically. Between 1970 and 2003, the average size of the nations households declined from 3.14 people to 2.57 people. In 2003, just 10 percent of the nations households contained five or more people, down from
Number of Households14
In 2003, the number of households in the United States reached 111 million up from 63 million in 1970. This increase is a reversal of a trend in average growth rate occurring since the 1980s. Between 1970 and 1980, the average growth in the number of households was 1.7 million per year; during the 1980s it declined
10 Guyer, Bernard, Freedman, Mary Anne, Strobino, Donna M., and Sondik, Edward J. (2000). Annual Summary of Vital Statistics: Trends in the Health of Americans During the 20th Century. Pediatrics, 106(6), 1307-1317 11 E. Arias. United States Life Tables, 2003 National Vital Statistics Reports 53(6): Table 5 12 E., Arias. (2004). United States Life Tables, 2002, National Vital Statistics Reports, 53(6): Table 10. 13 Fields, Jason. Americas Families and Living Arrangements: 2003. Derived from Current Population Reports, P20-553. U.S. Bureau of Census, Washington, D.C. 14 ibid
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The most noticeable trend is the decline in the proportion of married-couple households with their own children. In 1970 they accounted for 40 percent of all households, but had dropped to 23 percent in 2003. In contrast, the proportion of households that were made up of married couples without children dropped only slightly over the period28 percent in 2003, compared with 30 percent in 1970. The third family household component families whose householder was living with children or other relatives but had no spouse present increased from 11 percent of all households in 1970 to 16 percent in 2003. However, since 1995 the proportion of households that are single-parent families has been stabilizing at about 9 percent in both.
to 1.3 million per year, and in the 1990s to 1.1 million per year, not different from what it had been during the 1960s. Since 2000 the growth rate has increased and is expected to continue increasing for the foreseeable future, in large part because of the number of immigrants entering the country.
Household Size15
Households have decreased in size, with the most profound changes occurring at the extremes, the largest and smallest households. Overall, between 1970 and 2003, the average number of people per household declined from 3.14 to 2.57. In the same time period, households with five or more people decreased from 21 percent to 10 percent of households, and households with one or two people increased from 46 percent to 60 percent. Changes in birth rates, marriage, divorce, and mortality have all contributed to declines in the size of American households. Between 1970 and 1990, the number of births to unmarried women relative to those to married women increased, raising the proportion of children living with a single parent. However, in recent years the rate of births to unmarried teenage women has been steadily declining, while the birth rate for all unmarried women aged 15-44 peaked in 1994 and has changed very little since then. Over this period, the proportion of women remaining childless and delaying childbearing also rose. Increases in divorce also reduced the size of households. Divorce generally separates one household into two smaller ones. The divorce rate rose rapidly through the 1970s and 1980s and leveled off during the 1990s. The cumulative effect of these trends was to reduce the average size of households. Delays in marriage and the improvements in the life expectancy and health of the elderly may combine to have mixed effects on the average household size. Delays in marriage may temporarily increase the number of one-person households if young adults live independently for longer periods, but it may also increase the size of other households if young adults either return to or stay in their parents households or live with roommates for longer periods before marrying. Better health of the elderly could increase the number of married couples, if both men and women live longer, or could contribute to the number of one-person households, as survivors may live independently for longer periods of time.
Households with Children17

Households with their own children made up less than onethird of all households in 2003. The decline in the proportion of households with their own children under age 18 is an important component in the overall decline in household and family size over the last 30 years. Households with their own children dropped from 45 percent of all households in 1970 to 35 percent in 1990, and 32 percent in 2003.
Married-Couple Households18
In 2003, 76% of all family households were married-couple households 57 million people resided in them. Householders in married-couple households were older than those in other family households. Thirty-three percent of married-couple householders were at least 55 years old, while approximately 21 percent of unmarried male and female family householders were this old.
Single Parent Households19

Single-mother families increased from 3 million in 1970 to 10 million in 2003, while the number of single-father families grew from less than half a million to 2 million. The number of twoparent family groups with children remained relatively stable at about 26 million over the same period. Several demographic trends have affected the shift from twoparent to one-parent families. A larger proportion of births occurred to unmarried women in the 1990s than in the 1960s and 1970s, increasing the proportion of never-married parents. A partial explanation is that the delay of marriage also increased the likelihood of a non-marital birth. Another factor was the
Family Households16
Traditionally, family households have predominated81 percent of all households in 1970 were family households, but the proportion dropped to 68 percent by 2003.
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Fields, Jason. Americas Families and Living Arrangements: 2003. Derived from Current Population Reports, P20-553. U.S. Bureau of Census, Washington, D.C. ibid ibid ibid ibid
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In 2003, 55 percent (7.6 million) of men 18 to 24 years old lived at home with one or both of their parents. Although women typically marry at younger ages, a sizable proportion in this age group (46 percent) lived at home with at least one of their parents. Among people 18 to 24 years old, 9 percent of men and 16 percent of women were married and living with their spouse. In 2003, living alone was not very common among these younger adults about 5 percent of men and women did so. Both men and women in this age group were more likely to live with others (cohabitate or live with roommates or people other than spouses) or live with their parents than to live alone or with a spouse. In this age group, about 31 percent of men and women lived with people who were neither their spouse nor their parent. For 25 to 34 year-olds, married life was the most likely type of living arrangement 52 percent of all 25-34 year olds lived with their spouse. But 11 percent of men and 8 percent of women in this age category lived alone, while 14 percent of 25 to 34 yearold men and 7 percent of 25-34 year old women lived with at least one of their parents. Among the population 75 years and over, 67 percent of men were living with their spouse in 2003 compared with 29 percent of women in this same age group. In contrast, 50 percent of women were living alone, compared with 23 percent of men. The proportion of not currently married but living with either relatives or non-relatives was about twice as high for women as for men: 22 percent compared with 10 percent. Among the population 65 to 74 years old, the likelihood of living with a spouse was higher for both men and women than it was among people 75 years and older. Living alone was also less common for people 65 to 74 years old than for people 75 years and older. These differences between men and women are generally considered to reflect higher male mortality. With increasing age, however, both men and women were more likely to live alone. In 2003, 4.6 million households were classified as unmarried partner households; that is, the householder was living with someone of the opposite sex who was identified as their unmarried partner. The proportion of all households that were unmarried-partner households has been steadily increasing from 2.9% of all households in 1996 to 4.2% in 2003.
growth in divorce among couples with children. These trends may have important implications for the well being of children, and the programs and policies that relate to welfare, family leave, child care, and other areas of work and family life. Of the 12 million one-parent family groups, the 10 million living in singleparent families headed by women were more likely to include more than one child and to have family incomes below the poverty level. Women maintaining one-parent family groups were also more likely than corresponding men never to have married. Whether the single parent is divorced or never married may be an important indicator of the quality of life for children in these family groups. Children living with divorced single mothers typically have an economic advantage over children living with those who never married. Divorced parents are, on average, older, have more education, and have higher incomes than parents who never married. In examining single parent families by race, non-Hispanic White single-mother family groups were more likely to be the result of a marital disruption (49 percent were divorced) than an out-of-wedlock birth (31 percent were never married). By contrast, Black single mothers were the least likely to be divorced (20 percent) and the most likely to be never married (62 percent).
Marriage20
In 1970, the median age at first marriage was 20.8 years for women and 23.2 years for men. By 2003, these ages had risen to 25.3 years and 27.1 years, respectively. Changes in marriage patterns also can be observed in the proportion of the population that has not married. In 2003, 32 percent of men and 25 percent of women 15 years and older had never married, up from 28 and 22 percent for men and women, respectively, in 1970. The postponement of marriage since 1970 has led to a substantial increase in the percentage of young, never-married adults. The proportion of women 20 to 24 years old who had never married more than doubled between 1970 and 2003 from 36 percent to 75 percent. The increase more than tripled for women 30 to 34 years old, from 6 percent to 23 percent. Changes were also dramatic for menthe proportion of men 20 to 24 years old who had never married increased from 55 percent in 1970 to 86 percent in 2003. Men 30 to 34 years old experienced an increase from 9 percent to 33 percent. However, the majority of men and women in 2003 had been married by the time they were 30 to 34 years old (72 percent), and among men and women 65 years old and over, 96 percent had been married.
INDIVIDUALS WITH DISABILITIES22

Census 2000 counted 49.7 million people with some type of long lasting condition or disability. They represented 19.3% of the
20 Fields, Jason. Americas Families and Living Arrangements: 2003. Derived from Current Population Reports, P20-553. U.S. Bureau of Census, Washington, D.C. 21 ibid 22 As a result of extensive discussions with the disability and policy research communities, the Census 2000 questions on disability were substantially different from the 1990 questions on this topic. While Census 2000 gathered data from the population aged 5 and older, data collected in 1990 came only from the population aged 15 and older. The 1990 questions focused on conditions limiting work, going outside the home, and self-care, but did not specify sensory impairments or conditions restricting walking, climbing stairs, reaching, lifting, or carrying. Because of the major differences between the disability questions in 1990 and 2000, comparisons between the two censuses are not available.
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partner. By comparison, only 1 in 10 children who lived with their single mother shared the home with moms unmarried partner. In examining the 2000 Census data, the reports authors also found: Children living with single mothers and those living apart from both parents were most likely to be in households receiving public assistance (about 12 percent for each group). Five percent of children living just with their father and 2 percent of those living with married parents were in households receiving public assistance. About 5.6 million children, or 8 percent of the total, lived in a household that included a grandparent. The majority of these children (3.7 million) lived in the grandparents home; of these, two-thirds had a parent present with them. Children living in a grandparents home with neither parent present were more likely to be poor (30 percent) than children living in their parents home with a grandparent present (12 percent) or children living in a grandparents home with a parent present (15 percent).
257.2 million people who were aged 5 and older nearly one person in five. Nearly seven million (2.6% of the general population) reported a physical, mental, or emotional condition causing difficulty in dressing, bathing, or getting around inside the home. Just over 18 million of those aged 16 and older reported a condition that made it difficult to go outside the home to shop or visit a doctor. These individuals represent 8.6% of the 212 million people in this age category. While disability rates rose with age for both sexes, significant differences existed between men and women. For people under 65 years old, the prevalence of disability among men and boys was higher than among women and girls. In contrast, in the age category of 65 and older, disability rates were higher for women than men. Among children, the 2000 Census found a disability rate of 7.2% for boys and 4.3% for girls in the 5 to 15 years age category. In numerical terms, nearly twothirds of all disabled children ages 5-15 years were boys 1.7 million boys who had one or more disabilities compared to 949,000 girls. When disability rates are examined among racial and ethnic group, the highest overall estimated disability rate, 24.3%, was shared by two groups people who reported Black and people who reported American Indian and Alaska Native. The disability rates for these two groups were higher than the rates for nonHispanic Whites in all of the age groups investigated. Among children 5 to 15 years old, the disability rate was 5.7% for nonHispanic Whites, but 7 percent for Black children and 7.7% for American Indian and Alaska Native children. In 2000, 8.7 million people with disabilities were poor a substantially higher proportion (17.6 %) than was found among people aged 5 and older without disabilities (10.6%). However, the pattern of poverty by age was similar for both groups, with the highest poverty rates found among children aged 5 to 15.
Poverty and Health Insurance24

According to the Child Trends Databank, after remaining at 16 percent from 1999 to 2002, the percentage of children living in families with incomes below the poverty line increased to 17 percent in 2003. Children under 18 are much more likely than adults to be poor. One out of every five black children ages 0-5 lived in poverty for at least nine years between 1987 and 1996. Being raised in poverty, the report notes, puts children at increased risk for a wide range of problems. For young children, growing up in poverty is associated with lower cognitive abilities and school achievement and with impaired health and development. For adolescents, growing up in poverty is associated with a lower probability of graduating from high school. Poor children are also more likely than other children to have behavioral and emotional problems. Finally, growing up in poverty is associated with lower occupational status and a lower wage rate as an adult. The proportion of poor children whose parents make a substantial work effort decreased from 43 percent in 2000 to 40 percent in 2001. This is a reversal of trends stemming from recent welfare reforms when the percentage of poor children in working families rose from 32 percent in 1996 to 43 percent in 2000. The percentage of all children under age 18 with private health insurance coverage decreased from 71 percent in 2000 to 66 percent in 2003. During the same time period, the percentage of children with Medicaid increased from 20 percent to 26 percent.
CHILD WELL-BEING INDICATORS

Childrens Living Arrangements
According to the 2002 report, Childrens Living Arrangements and Characteristics,23 about 7 in 10 of the nations 72.3 million children under 18 lived with two parents or just slightly less than 50 million. Children under 15 represented 84 percent of those living with two parents. Of these, about 11 million lived with stay-at-home moms and 189,000 had stay-at-home dads. By contrast, 19.8 million children under 18 lived with one parent; 16.5 million with their mother and 3.3 million with their father. Approximately 3 in 10 of children living with their single father resided in a household that included dads unmarried
23 Childrens Living Arrangements and Characturistics: March 2002 Retrieed Dec. 4, 2004 from http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p20-547.pdf 24 Child Trends Databank, 2003. Retrieved Jan. 20, 2005 from http://www.childtrendsdatabank.org
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Of all year-round, fulltime workers, 10 percent earned $15,000 or less, and 1 percent earned $5,600 or less. At the top end of the distribution, 10 percent earned $75,000 or more, 5 percent earned $100,000 or more, 2 percent earned $150,000 or more and 1 percent earned $220,000 or more. Collectively, Asians followed by non-Hispanic Whites earn more than any other racial or ethnic group, and men earn more than women at all points in the earning distribution. Naturalized citizens who have been in the United States 10 or more years earn more than natives, who in turn earn more than other naturalized citizens and non-citizens. Not surprisingly, non-citizens who have been in the country less than 10 years earn the least.28 Information from the U.S. Census Bureau reinforces the value of a college education: workers 18 and over with a bachelors degree earn an average of $51,206 a year, while those with a high school diploma earn $27,915. Census information also suggests that of people aged 25 and older, those with higher educational attainment earn the most: workers with an advanced degree make an average of $74,602, while those without a high school diploma average $18,734. According to new census tables released on the Internet, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2004, 85 percent of those age 25 or older reported they had completed at least high school and 28 percent had attained at least a bachelors degree both record highs.29 Earnings have not necessarily translated into retirement savings: As of 2001, a federal analysis of households with at least one worker from age 21 to 64 concluded that 28 million more than one-third of the total did not have a retirement savings account of any kind. The study, released in 2003, relied on Census Bureau and Federal Reserve data.
Children in Foster Care

The foster care population in the U.S. has nearly doubled over the past two decades: In 1980, 302,000 children were in care, but in 2001, 542,000 children were in foster care on any given day. Though efforts have been made to create more and faster permanency options for children, most experts agree the foster care population will remain high through the next 5-10 years and then begin to decline as recently-enacted legislation and new reforms have greater impact. Approximately thirty-five percent of foster care children are placed in the system for less than one year, while 32 percent remain in the system for more than three years; 20 percent wait five or more years.25 Just 44 percent have reunification with their birth families as their case goal. In 2001, 903,000 children and youth were confirmed victims of abuse and neglect in the U.S. all were considered to be at-risk for out-of-home placements. And although confirmed figures for child abuse and neglect are not yet available for subsequent years, most sources agree that abuse and neglect continues at least at previous years rates. Foster care placement discrepancies exist. More Black children are placed in foster care than Whites. While just 39 percent of children in the U.S. are considered to be children of color, 59 percent of all children in foster care are children of color. And, according to studies by the Los Angeles-based Center for Children of Incarcerated Parents, as many as 90 percent of children in long-term foster care have a parent who has been arrested or incarcerated. Nearly half of all children in foster care are over 10 years of age; 100,000 youth in foster care are 16 or older. These are children for whom it is the most difficult to find permanency options. About 20,000 youth aged 16 and older make the transition from foster care to legal emancipation each year.26
HOUSEHOLD POVERTY AND WEALTH PROFILES

According the Urban Institute, between 1996 and 2001, poverty rates dropped to 23 percent for blacks, 25 percent for Hispanics, and 8 percent for whites.27 According to 2002 figures, Whites overall were less likely than other races to experience food or housing hardship: 44 percent of Hispanics experienced food hardship in 2002, compared with 38 percent of Blacks and 17 percent of Whites. In the same year, 24 percent of Blacks, 20 percent of Hispanics, and 10 percent of Whites experienced housing hardship.
25 Fostering the Future: Safety, Permanence and Well-Being for Children in Foster Care, The Pew Commission on Foster Care, Executive Summary, page 7. Based on the latest federal statistics on foster care supplied by the states for the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS). See U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The AFCARS Report: Preliminary FY 2001 Estimates as of March 2003. Washington, DC: DHHS, 2003. Available online at http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb/publications/afcars/report8.htm. 26 National Resource Center for Family Centered Practice and Permanency Planning at Hunter College of Social Work; a service of the Childrens Bureau, ACF/DHHS. Retrieved Feb. 4, 2005 http://www.hunter.cuny.edu/socwork/nrcfcpp/ 27 Finegold, Kenneth and Wherry, Laura. Race, Ethnicity and Economic Well-Being. 2004, Urban Institute, Washington DC. No. 19 in series, Snapshots of Americas Families III. Retrieved Dec. 2, 2004, http://www.urban.org 28 ibid 29 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census, Educational Attainment in the United States. Available at http://www.census.gov/ Retrieved Jan. 9, 2005
H OW W ILL C HILD AND FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ESIGNED ?
Medically, the 1990s were noted as the Decade of the Brain, with millions of dollars of federal and private dollars poured into research aimed at better understanding how the brain develops, functions, deteriorates and repairs itself. Such research has provided greater understanding of how the brain is involved in emotional health, substance abuse and learning difficulties. For instance, research has proven that only distinct regions of the brain are involved in depression and that certain regions in the brains of children exposed early to regular child abuse are wired differently. Research has also shown that there is a significant growth in the gray matter of the brain at puberty, followed by a loss of brain tissue in areas responsible for emotion and behavior regulation. We also know more about how chemical imbalances can create or foster behavioral changes within an individual; indeed pharmaceutical research has made possible the biologicalization of behavioral health. Of course it has been the advancements in technology itself that made much of this research possible allowing improvements in imaging, genetic mapping, disease protocols, and surgical tools that were unthinkable even 15 years ago. What knowledge has been gained begins, most scientists believe, to just scratch the surface. Yet within ten years, much of what is in the lab or clinical trials today will in fact be standard treatment modalities. Interventions in the brain tissue as treatments for both physical and mental health will be commonplace. For instance, most scientists now believe private business stimulated and supported by state initiatives like those in California and Maryland will bring stem cell treatments into the market by the year 2015 providing new treatment strategies for individuals dealing with Parkinsons Disease, Alzheimers, stroke, spinal cord or traumatic brain injuries and mental retardation. Some mental health experts suggest that in the future mental or
emotional disorders will be treated only through physical not social or therapeutic intervention, and that these interventions will be done through minimally invasive neurosurgical techniques implanting bio-chips into the brain tissue. Such biochips will have the potential to either electronically stimulate brain function, to replace it, or to manage the flow of needed chemicals for good brain health. Other, more invasive neurosurgical techniques to treat behavioral health issues may also become commonplace as technology drives development of better surgical tools like CyberKnife Radiosurgery. Some sources also predict that Neuroradiology, now commonly used for treating cancers and aneurysms, may well be extended as protocols for the treatment of psycho-social disorders. Other medical advancements are equally promising. Disease therapies based on a technique for gene silencing called RNA interference, molecular medicines next big thing, are racing towards the clinic. These therapies already show potential to reduce the incidence of genetic-based brain diseases, many related to aging. Within five to ten years, entire new classes of drugs will be available in the marketplace to treat emotional and serious psycho-social disorders without the side effects common to todays treatment drugs. This follows on the heels of successfully emerging pharmaceutical treatments for substance abuse. In the future, violent behaviors in individuals will be treated in much the same way or by attempts to repair or replace damaged areas contributing to such behaviors, or to re-wire the brain tissue itself. The neuroscience of emotions as a separate discipline and research area is now established and actively working to identify how the brains circuits integrates emotions, personality and physical health. Scientists expect within 10 years to be able to fully map a persons personality using brain circuitry; new therapies to treat personality disorders will grow out of this research.
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include meditation, therapeutic massage, accupressure and accupuncture. Visualization techniques, as treatments for chronic pain, will become more sophisticated and more widely used as the advancements in virtual reality continue. The implications of neuroscience and biotechnology advancements are extensive. Many will have the potential to dramatically alter the way nonprofit agencies design and deliver their behavioral health services, home health care programs, and services to disabled populations. In the foreseeable future, for instance, it may well be expected that human service agencies employ physicians or other medically trained personnel to deliver neuroscience services or administer drug therapies. Agencies may also be required by referral sources to purchase and maintain sophisticated diagnostic tools, monitoring, for instance, the blood levels of substance abusing juveniles. At the very least agencies will certainly have to confront the possibility that they will require alliances or collaborations with medical facilities in order to provide services to meet new mind-body treatment strategies, neurosurgical interventions and drug therapies.30
On the bio-engineering side, developments in unobtrusive monitoring devices show promise for tracking a variety of conditions, vital signs and health indicators. These devices will hold profound implications for monitoring substance abusers, dementia patients and other individuals with chronic or lifethreatening conditions. Despite or perhaps as a result of the significant advancements made in the understanding of the brain, scientists will increasingly recognize the importance of the mind-body link and begin to explore new methodologies for using behavioral changes as routes to preventing or treating physical ailments. The National Institute for Alternative Medicine reports that one-third of all adults suffering chronic pain seek alternative approaches to traditional medical treatment protocols. These alternative treatments include massage, acupuncture, biofeedback, psychological counseling and other mind-body approaches like yoga. Already, alternative healing practices are being used in cancer treatment facilities and other hospitals as supplements to traditional medical therapies. Practices widely utilized by these cancer patients
30 Heinz, Patrice. Emerging Technologies and Human Services: Moving Agencies Towards Capacity. The Alliance for Children and Families, 2000; updated 2004
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H OW W ILL C HILD AND FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ELIVERED ?
THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY

A number of developments are driving the future of technology, according to experts and leaders in the field. We profile here three of the more significant ones: The Sensor Revolution, Utility Computing and Nanotechnology.
The Sensor Revolution

According to Paul Saffo at the Institute for the future, every decade, a new technology resets the landscape of possibility. Saffo suggests the current decade is being reset by the availability and application of cheap sensors that connect personal devices to the world around us. He surmises that within 10 years, everyone will assume that everything in a room will have some rudimentary level of intelligence vacuums, refrigerators, heating and air conditioning systems, to name but a few. With sensors, refrigerators will be able to inform you what groceries need restocking and home-based HVAC systems will be able to adjust themselves on the basis of regular environmental scanning. Sensor technology relies on the application of a minimal amount of computer power that is focused on only two or three simple jobs. Individual sensor nodes pass information from one neighbor to another; a control center with a more sophisticated computer processing center harvests all the information and assesses it. Sensor technology will magnify the impact of the internet. Up to this point, the World Wide Web has reflected only the historical work and knowledge humans have produced. With sensor information added, the network expands to cover everything that moves, grows, makes noise or heats up.31 Within five years, sensors are predicted to shrink to the size of a grain of sand. They will be deployed across the globe, resulting in thousands of new networks that will monitor minute chemi31 Green, Heather. Bugging the World. BusinessWeek, August 25, 2003, pp 100-101
cal and temperature changes on farms, battlefields, and coastlines. They will be used by shipping companies to trace inventory automatically and adjust stocks in real time. They will track peoples shopping habits, movements of suspected criminals, and the patterns of children playing outside. They will be used to intervene with patients suffering from memory issues reminding them to eat or drink, take their medications or check in with relatives.
Utility Computing
The goal: make information technology as easy to use as plugging into an electronic outlet. The benefits: Organizations will not have to rip out already installed information systems to capture emerging technologies and advanced systems and software. Operating costs will be lowered as human interaction with systems is reduced or eliminated at operating sites. The concept is that computing systems will be operated much like the power plants of today but located both in remote locations and within an organization itself. Computing services will be purchased through a diverse number of payment options, based on actual computing power consumed. Though there are many, many practical and technological issues still to be worked out before utility computing becomes widely accepted, most experts agree the technology will become commonplace within 10 years or so. The driving force: cost and operating inefficiencies of current organization-owned and operated systems. Because todays complex systems rely on staffing, consulting and maintenance activities, nearly 75% of operating costs stem from those functions. It is estimated that in most organizations, computer servers alone are grossly underused some researchers believe 20% or less of server capacity is actual-
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thinking goals that raise ethical issues that already are very much on Congresss mind, the report acknowledges.
ly utilized by the businesses that own them. But those inefficiencies disappear with utility computing, which allow software programs and data to be routed to different servers, storage areas or network units based on the amount of excess capacity that exists at any given moment. Technology, in effect, will replace humans in the management and maintenance of computers.
TECHNOLOGY AND NONPROFIT PROVIDERS

The Internet will take on greater significance as more clients begin utilizing their computers for e-services: information searches, diagnostic protocols and self-referrals for treatment services. Many treatment services themselves will be delivered through the internet: counseling, support groups, financial planning, job training and searches, adoptions, foster care caseloads, and family loans to name just a few. Referrals of clients by government agencies, other human service organizations, schools and justice agencies will be done through Internet technology. Reporting of outcomes to referral and funding sources alike will be demanded in real time. Even those agencies delivering services in confined locations (e.g. residential treatment centers) will be changed by technology. Stronger linkages to communities, neighborhoods, families and schools will be maintained through Internet technology, while the utilization of technology itself will increasingly become part of modalities to diagnose, treat, or counsel behavioral health clients at these self-contained locations.32 On the practice side of medicine, two significant trends have emerged over the last two decades that are capable of impacting nonprofit behavioral health services from a service delivery and cost perspective both made possible by advancements in technology. The first, evidence-based medicine (EBM) integrates clinical experience and patient values with the best available research information available through computerized databases. The most realistic and efficient use of EBM by clinicians at the point of care involves rapidly accessing and applying valid and relevant summaries of research evidence, evidence-based guidelines and systematic reviews to the patients particular needs. Evidencebased medicine has been built on the assumption that most physicians are now overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of scientific and medical information currently available and rapidly escalating. Surveys have found that as many as two-thirds of general care practitioners do not feel they can manage the current volume of scientific information; when researchers have asked about physicians knowledge of important recent medical advances, they found deficiencies that would adversely affect patient care. While no similar studies could be located for nonprofit behavioral health service providers, one can imagine that the increasing volume of research in mental health and substance abuse alone provide similar issues of knowledge management and application for their staffs. But the potential costs to link human service providers into evidence-based medicine databases are enormous from capital-
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology, which deals with materials and devices manufactured on the scale of billionths of a meter, is widely touted as the engine of the next industrial revolution. The promise is not so much its ability to produce ever smaller and more efficient machines although that is certainly one aspect of its attraction. The main benefit of gaining control over such tiny bits of matter is that ordinary materials behave in extraordinary ways when shaved down to the scale of atoms and molecules. The Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, a 24-member committee of experts from industry, academia and research institutions (tasked with periodically assessing the nations nanotech research and development programs) previewed the conclusions of their first report in late March 2005. (Full publication of the report is not expected until late spring 2005) The report concludes that important questions about the technologys safety and oversight remain unanswered and under-studied. Research on the health effects of nanomaterials and necessary revisions in the way they are regulated are lagging, government officials say, even as the novel materials find their way into an ever-widening spectrum of products, including clothing, cosmetics and computer hard drives. With a federal investment in nanotechnology of about $1 billion last year, the United States outspent every other country, including the entire European Union. The U.S. spending lead is being boosted by unparalleled private investment (accounting for nearly half of the $4 billion spent by corporations and venture capital globally) and a major investment by the states, which see nanotechnology as a ticket to revitalizing old industrial bases. That enterprise is still very young. For the next five years, the committee predicts, nanotechnology will, mostly, produce novel materials such as the stain-proof fabrics and super-strong tennis rackets already on the market, as well as catalysts and other products useful to the chemical industry. Longer term, the field is expected to produce medical products, including nanospheres that attach themselves to tumor cells and then fatally fry them, and novel materials for absorbing poisons from the environment. Further out, scientists envision development of bioenhancement nanoproducts that would give people greater strength, better vision and perhaps even computer-assisted
32 Heinz, Patrice. Emerging Technologies and Human Services: Moving Agencies Towards Capacity. The Alliance for Children and Families, 2000; updated 2004
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acutely ill or long term care patients. It relies on integrated video and computer-based vital sign monitoring done in remote locations by licensed nurses, and in some cases, physicians or other specially trained medical personnel. The system works this way: offsite monitoring personnel, using video cameras and datalinked computer systems, simultaneously track numerous patients according to a set of pre-determined characteristics. Should any of those characteristics stray from the norm established for those individual patients, an alarm sounds, alerting the monitoring staff to the problem. Those remote monitors, in turn, alert onsite staff who will immediately intervene to stabilize the patient. While the systems apparently are only currently being operated in a few hospital-based intensive care units and long term care facilities, this application of technology holds enormous promise and implication for other providers charged with the responsibility of monitoring home-based geriatric clients, residential-based substance abusers, etc. Sensor technology will expand the viability and potential of distance-based monitoring.
izing such systems to accessing or operating them, to training staff to use evidence-based models and apply its benefits, human service providers it would seem are less prepared than their health systems and/or for-profit brethren to implement, support and apply true models of evidence-based medicine to behavioral health care practice. However, if utility computing becomes widely available in the next 10 years, some of the operating costs for nonprofits to participate in evidence-based medicine may be lowered. Related to the emerging practice of evidence based medicine, is the recent work thats been done at the National Institute of Mental Health to assess the efficacy of various behavioral health interventions with children and youth. Depending on results of longitudinal studies, these efforts may impact what treatment modalities are allowed, funded and staffed in community- and residential-based mental health facilities. The second trend to emerge in the last few years is the trend towards distance-based patient monitoring. This practice developed in response to the shortage of nurses available to care for
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HOW WILL CHILD & FAMILY SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS BE FUNDED?

Nonprofits have experienced dramatic changes in their funding bases over the last several decades. Private and foundation charitable giving has fluctuated and United Ways dollars have declined and become more focused. Government funding streams have diversified resulting in increased dollars available in some instances and in other cases, simply diluting the limited resources originally available. For-profit organizations have entered the arena, competing for government contracts previously the domain of nonprofits. And nonprofits themselves have proliferated increasing competition among themselves for available charitable dollars and other revenue sources. cessful pursuit of public sector funding, the professionalizing of charitable giving and expanded entrepreneurial activity.34
Fees for Service Income

Salamon proposes that one of the central explanations for the growth in revenues for nonprofits can be explained by the success in marketing nonprofit services to a clientele increasingly able to afford them.35 He documents that fees and charges accounted for nearly half of the growth in nonprofit revenue between 1977 and 1997 more than any other single source. After adjusting for inflation, fee income for social service agencies grew more than 500 percent.
T HE G ROWTH OF THE N ONPROFIT S ECTOR

In The State of Nonprofit America, Editor Lester Salamon observes that the revenues of nonprofits collectively grew 144 percent (adjusted for inflation) over the 20-year period 1977 to 1997 nearly twice the 81 percent growth rate in the economy as a whole.33 Salamon notes that revenue growth was particularly vigorous among arts and cultural organizations, health organizations and social service organizations. Revenue growth aside, he cites the massive growth in the sector itself, identifying a 115 percent increase in the number of 501(c)(3) and 501(c)(4) organizations registered with the Internal Revenue Service between 1977 and 1997. More significantly he observes, was that the rate of nonprofit formation accelerated in the last ten years of that period, jumping from an average of 15,000 formations a year between 1977 and 1987 to more than 27,000 between 1987 and 1997.
Pursuit of Public Funding

Salamon believes one of the most striking developments to occur during the past several decades has been the enormous growth in revenues tied to public sector funding. He cites statistics showing that government funding to the nonprofit sector increased 195 percent in real terms between 1977 and 1997 not including the dollars directed to nonprofits from welfare reform legislation. Government alone, he concludes, accounted overall for 37 percent of the sectors growth during this 20-year period, with the major beneficiaries being nonprofit health, social service and arts organizations. Salmon suggests however, that much of this success in public funding revenue growth can be attributed to the skill with which nonprofits adapted to the rapid shifts in government fund sources. He acknowledges Steven Rathgeb Smiths contention that social service agencies in particular were quite nimble in adjusting to the new realities of funding as states shifted sector spending from discretionary grant programs to Medicaid and SSI programs.36
Diversification of Nonprofit Revenue Base

Salamon identifies four critical reasons why the sector experienced such tremendous growth: increase in fees-for-service income, suc-
33 Salamon, Lester. The Resilient Sector, The State of Nonprofit America. Published by Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC. Copyright 2002, Lester M. Salamon. pp 30-31 34 Ibid, pp 31-39; 35 Ibid, pg. 31; 36 Ibid, pg. 32-33
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H OW W ILL C HILD Professionalizing Charitable Giving
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According to the Independent Sector report, Giving and Volunteering in the United States 2001, 89% of households gave charitable contributions in 2000, with the average contributing household donating $1,620, or 3.1 percent of household income. Household giving included gifts of money, property, stocks, and other items of value. Religious organizations, more so than any other type of institution, were most likely to be the recipients of household giving.40 According to the Foundation Center, support from large foundations declined for a second consecutive year in 2003, as grantmakers adjusted to prior asset losses. Among the 1,000+ larger private and community foundations included in the Foundation Centers survey, giving fell 10.1 percent to $14.3 billion. Support for most major subject areas declined, although the distribution of foundation grant dollars remained about the same. However, certain subfieldssuch as voter education, disaster preparedness, national security, and arms controlmanaged to realize substantial growth in funding. Despite the decline in overall giving, foundations continued to increase the share of their funding targeted for operating support. This finding suggests responsiveness by foundations to the needs of nonprofits during difficult economic times. At the same time, foundations continued to reduce the volume and size of their very largest grants, especially capital grants.41 New figures available for 2004 show a reversal or at least an interruption in the two-year decline of foundation giving. According to a report released by the Foundation Center on April 4, 2005, giving by the countrys more than 66,000 foundations increased to a new high of $32.4 billion in 2004. Respondents in the annual survey indicate the beginning of a stock market recovery and higher levels of new gifts into existing foundations in 2003 were the primary factors for an estimated 6.9% rise in 2004 that reversed two years of modest reductions. Accompanying this rise in giving was an increase in the number of grants made. Close to one-third of respondents in the 2005 Foundation Giving Forecast Survey reported awarding more grants in 2004 than in the prior year, up from roughly one-fifth of respondents in 2003. But foundations remained cautious about the number of multi-year grants they made and the proportion of capital grants they awarded, increasing them only slightly. The report found that the stock market rally at the end of 2004 contributed to the estimated 4 percent to 6 percent increase in overall foundation assets, roughly half the gain recorded in
In his introduction to The State of Nonprofit America, Salamon reiterates others contentions that the past twenty-plus years has seen a growing professionalization of charitable fundraising and with it, a proliferation of creative mechanisms for generating charitable income. He identifies the emergence of membership and support organizations serving the fundraising profession as one indication of how the field of charitable giving has become more specialized and professional in its approach. He also attributes the success here to the transformation of charitable solicitation techniques from a reliance on individual solicitation to a diversified approach that encompasses workplace solicitation, direct mail campaigns, telephone solicitations and e-philanthropy and notes specifically the emergence of direct federated appeal campaigns by United Way and health organizations, as well as the growth in community foundations, as factors contributing to that transformation. Finally, he agrees with the contention by Leslie Lenkowsky that new donor options in federated appeals, new venture philanthropy models and donoradvised funds have combined to create an alternative entrepreneurial model of institutional philanthropy.37
Expanded Entrepreneurial Activity

Salamon cites a fourth factor supporting the growth in revenues for the sector the entry of nonprofits into entrepreneurial activities designed to create and sell products and services to commercial markets. Though he admits clear data substantiating this trend is difficult to find, he points to the growth in unrelated business income reported to the Internal Revenue Service: the number of charities reporting such income increased 35 percent between 1990 and 1997, with the amount of income they reported more than doubling over that eight year period.38
CHARITABLE AND FOUNDATION GIVING TRENDS

Innovations and professionalization aside, statistics indicate that the growth in private giving, while significant, has not kept pace with the growth of nonprofit revenue more generally although increasing 90% over the years 1977-1997, philanthropy actually accounted for only 16 percent of the sectors total growth in that time period. Factoring out charitable giving to religious organizations, philanthropy accounted for just 8 percent of the sectors growth.39
37 38 39 40 41
Salamon, Lester. The Resilient Sector, The State of Nonprofit America. Published by Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC. Copyright 2002, Lester M. Salamon. pp 34-35 Ibid, pg. 37 Ibid, pg. 36 Giving and Volunteering in the United States - 2001. Published by Independent Sector, 2002 Foundation Giving Trends 2005 edition. Published by the Foundation Center. Retrieved March 20, 2005 from http://www.fdncenter.org/
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cessfully, all have helped to stabilize or offset losses felt from declining federal funding and philanthropic contributions. First, a shift in federal policy has resulted in the diversification in government support from traditional block grant and other direct funding. Although direct funding remains the norm, new methods of financial support have emerged or expanded, among them tax credits, loans and tax exempt bonds. According to The State of Nonprofit America43 the federal child care tax credit has contributed to the growth of nonprofit childcare programs. Taxexempt bond financing has been used by state and local governments to help nonprofits fund capital needs. Second, the development of partnerships with corporations has also emerged as an alternative funding strategy for some nonprofits. Whether linked together by cause-related marketing or some other corporate-inspired tactic, nonprofits are realizing such partnerships can result in significant sources of income to underwrite general operating needs. Finally, as Salamon references in The State of Nonprofit America, venture philanthropy has emerged as an alternative to traditional philanthropy models. Still in the process of gaining widespread acceptance and application, the goal of venture philanthropy is to create social change by strengthening nonprofit organizations through the application of business-investment principles. Venture philanthropy models provide both major funding and management expertise and other non-financial resources to grantees expecting in return, that nonprofits begin to reshape their operating structures, programs and systems to reflect high-performing business strategies and produce relevant, measurable outcomes. Diversified capitalization strategies are one goal venture philanthropists seek in their investments. For instance, in recommending various tactics for development and innovation of nonprofit capitalization, the Nonprofit Finance Fund suggests access to capital can be enhanced through development and deployment of equity financial products development of comparables analysis to optimize investment by donors, banks, etc.; creation of new hybrid business forms (for/non profit), and investigation of expansion of core, mission-related businesses into paying markets; and maximization of revenue opportunities: contracting practices; mining of assets like good will, intellectual capital.44
2003, leaving the assets of many foundations still below the peak levels achieved in 2000. As a result, while a majority of survey respondents indicated that their giving would increase in 2005, fully a quarter said they would reduce giving a significant increase over the 18 percent of respondents who expected to reduce their giving last year. Based on the data and perceptions gathered, the Foundation Center predicts that while the modest rise in assets and generally optimistic economic outlook suggest foundation giving is likely to increase in 2005, the overall growth in giving is likely to fall below the nearly 7 percent rate recorded in 2004.42
GOVERNMENT FUNDING MENTAL HEALTH & SUBSTANCE ABUSE SERVICES

Public sources paid for 63 percent of mental health spending in 2001, up from 57 percent in 1991. Public sources paid for 76 percent of substance abuse treatment in 2001, up from 62 percent in 1991, according to a new analysis by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). The study, National Expenditures for Mental Health Services and Substance Abuse Treatment 1991-2001, shows that public spending for mental health services and substance abuse treatment amounted to $67.4 billion in 2001, while private spending amounted to $36.3 billion. The report calculates that spending on mental health services totaled $85.4 billion in 2001. Substance abuse treatment costs amounted to $18.3 billion. The report notes that mental health spending on psychiatric hospitals has decreased, while expenditures for other types of care, particularly prescription drugs, have increased. One in every five dollars spent on mental health treatment is now spent for retail psychotropic prescription drugs (21 percent), up from 7 percent in 1991. The report notes that Medicaid is now the largest single payer of mental health services, exceeding private insurance, Medicare, or other state and local spending. Medicaid paid 27 percent of mental health expenditures in 2001; Medicare paid 7 percent; other federal spending accounted for 5 percent; other state and local spending 23 percent; private insurance 22 percent; and other private sources 16 percent. Spending on psychotropic retail drugs was $18 billion. Retail prescription medications in substance abuse amounted to $78 million.
OTHER NONPROFIT FINANCING STRATEGIES

Several other critical developments have impacted the funding of nonprofits during the past decade. When implemented suc42 Foundation Growth and Giving Estimate: 2004 Preview. The Foundation Center, 2005. Retrieved April 6, 2005 from http://www.fdncenter.org/ 43 Smith, Steven Rathgeb. Social Services, The State of Nonprofit America. Lester M. Salamon, editor. Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC 20002. 44 Capitalizing the Sweet Spot Effectively Financing Growth Among Child and Youth-Serving Nonprofits (draft). February 2005. Nonprofit Finance Fund
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H OW W ILL G OVERNMENT AND S OCIETY I MPACT O RGANIZATIONAL C APACITY ?
EMERGING PUBLIC POLICY PRIORITIES

Over the past few years, a dramatic shift in public policy has occurred under the current administrations direction and influence. These priorities many already enacted into law, others being debated now have included faith-based initiatives, federal tax cuts, increased defense and national security spending, revisions to the social security system, reductions in Medicaid spending, increases (through drug benefits) in Medicare spending, and reforms aimed at leaving no child behind in education. Combined with prior administrations reforms in welfare legislation, the devolution of many federal social welfare grant programs to states, and greater scrutiny of nonprofits by regulators, donors and Congress, many nonprofits have found themselves ill-equipped to deal with the changing tides these policy shifts have forced. Current administration and Congressional leadership have evidenced a greater willingness to spend money on defense and homeland security initiatives and a greater commitment to cutting domestic spending programs. Fueling many of these political shifts has been the seemingly growing influence of religious conservatism in Congressional decision making. These policy shifts to the right will continue for the foreseeable future. Important issues that have yet to be confronted by Congress include the massive national debt that is accruing, an emerging pension crisis as more companies seek relief from pension payment to retirees and the Medicare health insurance program, projected by some sources to be bankrupt as early as 2015, just as even larger numbers of the population enter retirement age.
THE DEMAND FOR ACCOUNTABILITY AND T RANSPARENCY

Over the past several years, there has been a dramatic increase in calls for greater financial accountability and transparency in the nonprofit sector. These calls have come from a variety of sources (donors, foundations, the government, the general public and leaders within the sector itself) and in a diversity of methods. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, officially known as the American Competitiveness and Corporate Accountability Act of 2002, was enacted by Congress in response to the damaging corporate scandals of Enron, Tyco and WorldCom, among others. Significant for its extensive and complex provisions regulating audits and the audit process, the legislation was designed to strengthen not only the governance and accountability of public companies but the accounting firms who serve them as well. Most notably, it is a law that at its heart sets regulations specifically created to influence the ethics of corporate behavior. The majority of Sarbanes-Oxley has no direct legal consequence for nonprofits they will generally not, as of yet, be held to the same governance, financial reporting or auditing standards as publicly held companies. That said, the implications of Sarbanes-Oxley for nonprofits operating in the United States are already enormous from a bubble up and trickle out perspective. In many respects, it is serving as the template for nonprofit regulation, legislation and voluntary best practices:
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H OW W ILL G OVERNMENT
AND
S OCIETY I MPACT O RGANIZATIONAL C APACITY ?

at the encouragement of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee and other sector leaders. The Panel has developed and released preliminary recommendations to improve the governance, ethical conduct, and oversight of nonprofit organizations. Their recommendations include improvements in financial reporting and transparency, governance of charitable organizations, government oversight, information sharing between state and federal governments. While the impetus for this panel was debate over foundation giving, it is expected that most recommendations enacted into legislation will affect the majority of all charitable organizations. Interestingly, in its annual survey of foundations, the Foundation Center found nearly 57 percent of survey respondents felt that calls for greater accountability and transparency were justified. Community foundation and midsize and larger foundation respondents (those giving at least $1 million annually) were most likely to agree with this demand for greater accountability. By comparison, 17 percent of respondents felt the calls were not justified, with independent foundation and smaller foundation respondents more often providing this answer.46
Not waiting for a nonprofit version of Sarbanes-Oxley, the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) issued its own Auditor Independence Standard in 2002, establishing standards for auditor services and behavior that are similar to those passed in Sarbanes-Oxley. The GAO standard applies to federal agencies, state and local governments, any nonprofit agency directly receiving federal grants, and many nonprofits receiving federal funds from pass-through grants or through purchase of service contracts with their local and state jurisdictions. States are examining legislative options to establish greater regulation of nonprofits. California, as an example, recently enacted new law that governs nonprofits along many of the same parameters established in Sarbanes-Oxley. Massachusetts is poised to do the same. One of the simplest, but most immediate, implications of Sarbanes-Oxley for nonprofits stems as an aggregate reaction from the greater regulation of the accounting profession. Accountants, acting with heightened awareness of the risks and liabilities associated with any improper financial reporting, are now increasingly urging their private and nonprofit clients to act within the spirit of the law and adopt practices that protect the interests of all auditors, directors and executives, regulators, donors and constituents. Likewise, representatives from the corporate world who sit on nonprofit boards are also increasingly bringing with them the lessons of corporate scandal and recommending or applying the best practices suggested by Sarbanes-Oxley to nonprofit governance.45 In other cases, corporate representatives from companies with foundations are being advised by their legal counsel that they can either serve on a nonprofit board or give the nonprofit corporate (or corporate foundation) money but not both, as both constitutes a conflict of interest with shareholders needs. The Internal Revenue Service has also been investigating nonprofit credit-counseling firms to see whether they are misusing their tax-exempt status. The tax agency is auditing 48 credit counseling agencies accounting for about half of the industrys assets and has notified several firms that it intends to revoke their tax-exempt status. The Independent Sector, acting on calls from Congress and others, has published a Model Code of Ethics it recommends providers in the nonprofit sector adopt and adhere to. The Panel on the Nonprofit Sector, an independent panel of 24 leaders from a wide range of the countrys public charities and private foundations, was convened by Independent Sector
WORKFORCE ISSUES
Nonprofit human service providers are finding it increasingly difficult to provide quality services to those in need. The safety and permanency of children is in jeopardy because of large caseloads, worker turnover, and worker burnout. Low wages, an overly complex delivery system, and inherently difficult work have exacerbated this phenomenon within the profession. All these factors have led to an overall decrease in the quality of services provided to individuals in need, and have effectively reduced societys ability to protect children, families and the elderly from neglect and abuse and to provide them with opportunities to lead productive lives. A March 2003 GAO report provides evidence to support the assertion that issues plaguing the nonprofit workforce namely high turnover and staffing shortages affect the outcomes for children and families, as well as the ability of state and local agencies to attain measurable federal outcomes. A review of 27 Child and Family Service Reviews (CFSR) indicated that while improving workforce deficiencies is not currently a priority of Health and Human Services, issues such as lack of training, recruitment, and turnover are identified consistently as factors that contribute to the inability to achieve federal performance standards for child welfare outcomes.47 There are many substantial barriers to maintaining a qualified
45 Heinz, Patrice. Responding to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 The Financial Reporting Practices of Nonprofits. Published by the Alliance for Children and Families, 2003 46 Foundation Growth and Giving Estimate: 2004 Preview. The Foundation Center, 2005. Retrieved April 6, 2005 from http://www.fdncenter.org/ 47 Human Services Workforce Improvement (Public Policy Briefing). Published by the Alliance for Children and Families, 2005
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As more and more nonprofit CEOs retire, human service boards across the country will find themselves wrestling with the questions of what qualifications to pursue in a new CEO, what fields to recruit new management from, and what roles and responsibilities to establish for CEO leadership. Already, there is a growing, but significant trend, to hire CEOs from outside of the nonprofit field. Competition for qualified information systems and technological support personnel will intensify over the next decade, creating an environment where the best and brightest IS staff will be able to demand salaries and benefit packages currently perceived by many nonprofits to be outside their capacity to provide. Job positions, roles and responsibilities for all staff will need to be re-examined and revised based on cultural shifts, regional staffing needs, advancements in treatment modalities, the medicalization of many traditional social services, and organizational opportunities to deliver remote services via the internet and through innovative partnerships with organizations outside of the traditional social services field. Combined, these findings and observations prompt a number of critical workforce questions for child and family-serving agencies, among them: Recruitment and Retention. How should agencies adapt current recruitment and retention strategies to attract and keep qualified staff capable of delivering innovative human services? Who will agencies need to recruit in the future in order to deliver services 10 and 15 years down the road? How will agencies manage their human resources if staff resources are remote and mobile? How can agencies establish the resources necessary to create compensation packages that effectively compete with other employers in the nonprofit and for-profit sectors? What will be the implications of an aging society on workforce participation, expectations of employment and retirement age? Service Evolution. Will the emergence of new technologies and new e-services change the nature of current services now provided by staff in office settings? Will advancements in the biosciences impact the delivery of behavioral services? If current services are changed by technologies, what corresponding changes in staff qualifications and training will be required to deliver services in the future? Training. What kinds of training strategies will nonprofit agencies need to implement in the future in order to maintain a cadre
and effective human services workforce. Low salaries are a huge problem. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, social services pays its workers less than any other sector that hires similarly qualified people.48 Another significant problem is the rapid turnover of workers, up to 40 percent by one count, which negatively impacts the children and families they serve. Additionally, labor statistics indicate that the human services workforce is aging forty percent of social workers are over the age of 45, compared to a third of the US workforce overall. Recruitment efforts and incentives such as student loan forgiveness must be made to energize todays college graduates to work in the social services. Finally, problems such as limited opportunities for professional growth, poor supervision, excessive regulations that leave little latitude for discretion, and few incentives for workers to hone skills or become more productive complete the picture of this struggling human services workforce. In order for system reforms to occur, there must be accurate data on the numbers and types of human service workers that exist in the labor force. Current estimates range from 3 to 5 million, and no further data has been collected to identify these workers, who are invisible from a data and management perspective.49 A 2002 workforce development survey of human service agencies, conducted jointly by the Alliance for Children and Families, the Child Welfare League of America and the American Public Human Services Association, supported many of the observations made by the Casey Foundation in the report referenced above: While staff turnover rates at public human agencies are slightly below the 2000 national average (approximately 16.8%), the turnover rates at private agencies are nearly three times greater than the national average. Private human service agencies have considerably higher vacancy rates than public agencies. Public agencies, both state and especially county, pay all levels of human service workers more in salaries than private agencies do. Public and private agencies agree on the major hiring and recruitment problems they face today: a lack of qualified candidates and competition from other labor market options. Agencies also agree on the major retention problem they face: the perception by employees of the imbalance between demands of the job and the financial compensation offered. There will be other workforce challenges faced by nonprofit agencies in the coming years:
48 Nittoli, Janice The Unsolved Challenge of System Reform: The Condition of the Frontline Human Services Workforce, Annie E. Casey Foundation, 2003. 49 Ibid.
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Schervish estimate that the total amount of intergenerational wealth transfer during the next 50 years could range from $41 trillion to $136 trillion, with as much as 15% of that ($6-20 trillion) bequeathed to charity. But Virginia Hodgkinson, in the State of Nonprofit America, argues the 2001 Tax Act which phases out taxation of estates makes such a transfer to charities increasingly unlikely. She cites the lessons learned from the 1980s reduction in estate taxation which, although resulting in increased bequest giving in real dollars, actually revealed a decline in giving as a percentage of total estate value.51 Whether that lesson hold true for this next transfer of wealth or not, the fact remains that there will be an unprecedented amount of money potentially available to charity organizations through estates and individuals with newly-acquired wealth. The challenge, as Hodgkinson points out, will be to create a culture of philanthropy now, to shape those giving trends in the future.
of well-qualified, committed staff able to deliver services needed by clients and communities? What kinds of professional development or continuing education training will need to be provided in order to prepare program staff to advance to administrative and management levels in human service agencies? Board Representation. Pushed by current trends in accountability, transparency, conflicts of interest and director liability, will nonprofits be able to attract and retain qualified directors to serve on their boards? Will they be able to secure the expertise and experience of outside directors in sufficient enough capacity to strengthen governance and leadership of their organizations?
THE TRANSFER OF WEALTH

In their 1999 paper, Millionaires and the Millennium New Estimates of the Forthcoming Wealth Transfer and the Prospects for a Golden Age of Philanthropy, 50 John Havens and Paul
50 Havens, John J. and Paul G. Schervish. Millionaires and the Millennium New Estimates of the Forthcoming Wealth Transfer and the Prospects for a Golden Age of Philanthropy, (unpublished paper) Boston College, Social Welfare Research Institute, 1999 51 Hodgkinson, Virginia. Individual Giving and Volunteering, The State of Nonprofit America. Lester M. Salamon, editor. Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC 20002.
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T EN T RENDS S HAPING THE WORLD

The information in this section is excerpted from an article appearing in the January-February 2003 issue of the Futurist. Authored by Marvin J. Cetron, president of Forecasting International, Ltd, and Owen Davies, former senior editor at Omni magazine and currently a science writer and collaborator with Cetron, the article updates an original report on 50 trends shaping the future which was published by the World Future Society in 2001. For a fuller discussion on the implications of the trends highlighted below, please refer to the original article.52
Young people place increasing importance on economic success, which they have come to expect.
Cetron and Davies point out that Generations X and Dot.Com have effectively known only good economic times for their entire adult lives. They view the current economic downturn as a confusing aberration, rather than a predictable part of the business cycle. Most expect to see hardship somewhere on the national level, but both want and expect prosperity for themselves. They note that growing numbers of people are becoming entrepreneurs Gen Xers and Dot.Comers are the most entrepreneurial generations in history. That aside, in the United States, the authors observe, only one in three high school graduates go onto receive a college degree resulting in high aspirations for wealth, but little means to achieve them. The real net income of high school graduates has been steadily declining for more than 50 years. Implications: The increasing importance on economic success will prove to be a global trend, as Generations X and Dot.Com tend to share the same values throughout the world. If the current downturn does become unexpectedly deep or protracted, members of these generations will find it difficult to cope, forcing them to rely on guidance from their boomer parents and earlier generations. This could trigger a move to rehire older workers cut during the downsizing of the 90s, to restore or acquire the kind of institutional memory that helps companies meet challenges not encountered regularly. If younger generation workers find their ambitions thwarted, they will create growing pressure for economic reforms and deregulation. If reforms do not come fast enough in developing countries, there will be a higher number of young people
ECONOMIC TRENDS
The growth of information industries is creating a knowledge-dependent global society.
By the end of 2005, more than 80% of American management personnel will be knowledge workers with Europe and Japan not far behind. In the U.S., the digital divide is disappearing. In early 2000, one poll found that half of White households owned computers as did 43% of African-American households. Hispanic households did lag behind, but were expected to catch up. The Internet levels the playing field: small businesses throughout the world are able to compete for market share head-to-head with industry leaders. Implications: Knowledge workers are generally better paid than less-skilled workers; the increase in their numbers will raise overall prosperity. Better education and training will be required by entry-level workers and those in unskilled positions. New technologies will create new jobs and new industries in developing countries.
52 Cetron, Marvin and Owens Davies. Trends Shaping the Future: Economic, Societal, and Environmental Trends. The Futurist. Volume 37, No. 1, Jan.-Feb. 2003, pp 27-42
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T EN T RENDS S HAPING
who will emigrate to developed countries. Under-employed men left in developing countries will shift into fringe political and religious movements.
THE
WORLD
SOCIETAL TRENDS The worlds population will double in the next 40 years.
According to Cetron and Davies, the greatest birth rates will occur in those counties least able to support their populations. Countries projected to have the largest increases in population include the Palestinian territory, Niger, Yemen, Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. In contrast, Cetron and Davies expect that many industrialized nations will see fertility rates fall below the replacement levels needed to grow or even sustain current population numbers (Immigration rates do not factor in their calculations). They suggest that the populations of the developed world will fall from 23% of the total world population in 1950 and 14% in 2000 to just 10% by 2050. They specifically note that the workforce in Europe and Japan will shrink by 1% per year, contracting 1.5% annually by the 2030s. Implications: American dominance of the global economy will be reinforced as the European Union falls to third place behind the U.S. and China. Unless birth rates climb in developed countries, industrialized nations like the U.S. will either require older would-be-retirees to remain on the job, or they will be forced to encourage even more immigration from the developing world. Culture clashes between natives and immigrants are likely to destabilize societies throughout the developed world.
ing the cost of new drugs and technologies will reduce the costs of caring for patients who would have suffered from disease or disorders made obsolete or ameliorated by new therapies suggesting, the authors say, that drug/technology cost increases and care cost reductions will in the end balance out. The number of doctors and nurses specializing in geriatric care, or available to care for seniors will not keep pace with senior population expansions. State health care agencies will be forced to take the lead to recruit new workers to these fields; alternatively, new care systems will need to emerge or be invented.
Growing acceptance of cultural diversity, aided by the unifying effect of mass media and technologies, is promoting the growth of a truly integrated global society though this will be subject to local interruptions and reversals.
The authors observe that advancements in information technology have shrunk the world as people link together via computer networks, the internet and more efficient long distance telecommunications. They assert the impact helped along by intermarriages and businesses that shift people from one area to another - is a blurring in the U.S. and Europe of regional differences, attitudes, incomes and lifestyles. They note, however, that there are simultaneous powerful reactions against these changes, particularly in countries where xenophobia is common. Implications: Growing cultural exchanges will help to reduce some of the conflict that plagued the 20th century particularly among Gen-Xers and Dot.Comers across the world who feel, through shared technology, that they have more in common with each other than they do with their parents generations. Violent backlashes will occur in countries afraid of U.S. and European influences. Fervent culturist movements will spring from religious fundamentalism and dictatorships that will use these movements to promote their own interests to ensure that ethnic, sectarian and regional violence will remain common. International terrorism, stemming from these movements, will remain a continuing problem. Companies will hire more minorities and culturally diverse workforces and will be expected to adapt to their values and needs. The burden of accommodating foreign-born residents will fall on employers who will be required to make room for their languages and cultures in the workplace.
The population in the developed world is living longer; the elderly population is growing dramatically.
Cetron and Davies observe that since the beginning of the 20th century, every generation born in the U.S. has lived three years longer than the last. They also note that the average life expectancy in Australia, Japan and Switzerland is now over 75 years for males and over 80 years for females. Implications: Global demand for products and services aimed at the elderly will increase quickly. The ratio of working-age people to retirees will drop dramatically in the United States, Germany, Italy, Russia and Japan, placing extreme burdens on their national economies. The cost of health care will skyrocket. However, with dramatic advances in geriatric medicine, the authors project that pay-
Societal values are changing rapidly.

Cetron and Davies argue that industrialization raises educational levels, changes attitudes toward authority, reduces fertility, alters
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gender role and encourages greater political participation processes that are just beginning in developing countries. In the U.S. and other developed countries, Gen Xers and Dot.Comers will increasingly become more influential than the baby boomers who have dominated western thinking for most of the past four decades resulting in a more homogenizing of certain basic attitudes around the world. In the future both self-reliance and cooperation will be mutually-valued self-reliance, the authors ascertain, because individuals will no longer be able to fall back on government sponsored social security programs or employer-sponsored pension plans and other benefits; and cooperation because group activity is often the best way to optimize the use of scarce resources. Implications: Once national security issues lose their immediacy, family issues will again dominate American society: longer term health care, day care, early childhood education, anti-drug campaigns and the environment. The highly polarized political environment seen in recent years in the U.S. will slowly moderate as results-oriented Generations X and Dot.Com begin to dominate the national dialogue. Narrow, extremist views of the left and right will slowly lose their popularity. Moderate republicans and conservative democrats will lead their respective parties. The demand for greater accountability and transparency will be heightened, not only for U.S. businesses, but also for countries that wish to attract international investors.
THE
WORLD
nationalized services of these types have yet to develop. Over the next 20 years or so, the authors surmise, this may force American businesses to compete on a more even footing with their European counterparts, whose taxes pay for national day-care programs and other social services the U.S. lacks.
Family Structures are becoming more diverse.

Cetron and Davies observe that in the U.S. one-third of Gen Xers have returned home at some point in their early adult lives to save on living expenses. In addition, the authors point to the growing numbers of grandparents raising their grandchildren, and the increasing numbers of same-sex couples desiring most of the legal rights traditionally reserved for married couples. At the same time, they acknowledge, the nuclear family is rebounding as baby boom and Gen X parents focus more on their children and grandparents retain more independence and mobility. Implications: Tax and welfare policies will need adjustment to cope with families in which heads of households are retired or unable to work, or who receive government benefits but are forced to work to support an extended family. Debates over homosexuality and the decline of the family will remain hot button issues through at least the next election cycle. Concern for other family values will remain high, but will increasingly be shaped by the real world needs of diverse families, rather than the agendas of religious conservatives.
The womens equality movement is beginning to lose its significance, thanks largely to past successes.
The authors note that Generations X and Dot.Com are virtually gender-blind in the workplace, compared to older generations. They also observe that fully 57% of American college students are women with 60% of Hispanic and two-thirds of AfricanAmerican college students of the female sex. Finally, they comment that an infrastructure is evolving that allows women to make more decisions and exercise political power, particularly when both spouses work. One indication of growing dependency on the wife the authors cite: life insurance companies are selling more policies to women than to men. Implications: Whatever careers remain relatively closed to women will open wide in the years to come. Demand for child care and other family oriented services will continue to grow, particularly in the United States where
ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS Water shortages will be a continuing problem for much of the world.
According to the United Nations, one third of the population of Africa and most of the major cities in the developing world will face water shortages in the near term. The northern half of China, home to half a billion people, is already short of water. And some of the solutions to current water problems, the authors suggest, are already causing other problems citing the increase of minerals in the soil left by evaporating irrigation water. They project that by the year 2020, 30% of the worlds arable land will be salty. They also note that pollution has further reduced the supply of safe drinking water and will continue to do so increasing the implications of contaminated water in the worlds health problems. Water quality, Cetron and Davies note, is a growing problem in the developed countries as well, as aging delivery systems suffer frequent breaks and contribute to the increase of bacteria and pollutants into the water supply.53
53 While Cetron and Davies do not discuss rising water levels in this report, Peter Schwartz in his book, Inevitable Surprises, suggests that sea levels will rise three feet over the next 80 years, stimulating enormous impact on public resources.
24
THE
WORLD
Implications: By 2040, Cetron and Davies assert, at least 3.5 billion people will run short of water almost 10 times more people than in 1995. Water wars are an imminent threat in places like Kashmir and Pakistan. Impurities in water will become an even greater problem as the population ages and becomes more susceptible to infectious diseases. Repair of water systems in older major metropolitan areas will become a priority, displacing spending on other important issues and programs.
fills will run out of room by 2012. For household trash, landfill space will be exhausted by 2007. In the U.S., the EPA estimates that 70% of landfills will be full by 2025. In other regions of the world, Cetron and Davies note that simply collecting the trash is a problem. Brazil produces an estimated 240,000 tons of garbage each day, but only 70% of it reaches landfill. The remaining 30% accumulates on city streets. Recycling and waste-to-energy plants, while a viable alternative to simply dumping garbage, have not caught on in the United States. The U.S., the authors state, has more than 2,200 landfills. But Europe, where recycling and waste conversion are more popular alternatives, gets by with just 175 landfills. Implications: New regulations governing recycling, waste-to-energy projects and waste management will flood the United States beginning in California the authors believe. States that accept trash from outside major garbage producers like New York will begin to tighten existing regulations and disposal prices. Uncollected trash in developing countries and major cities will contribute to an increase in the outbreak of communicable diseases.
Recycling has delayed the garbage glut that threatened to overflow the worlds landfills, but the threat has not passed simply because it has not yet arrived.
Cetron and Davies point out that Americans now produce about 4.4 pounds of trash per person per day twice as much as they did just ten years ago. Cost concerns are driving some metropolitan areas to abandon recycling efforts New York City, in 2002, ceased its recycling efforts for glass, plastic and beverage cartons, sending an extra 1,200 tons of litter to landfills each day. In London and the surrounding regions, the authors observe, land-
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Scanning Horizon

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Scanning Horizon

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SCENARIO PLANNING

The Ultimate Agency Advantage

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

W HO W ILL B E THE C LIENTS OF N ONPROFIT O RGANIZATIONS ?

POPULATION SHIFTS AND PROJECTIONS1

GENDER PROFILES AND PROJECTIONS

AGE PROFILES AND PROJECTIONS3

Alliance for Children and Families

POPULATION AND RACE5

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

Settlements of new immigrants are more widely dispersed.

Numbers of naturalized citizens rising

Alliance for Children and Families

THE CHANGING PROFILE OF THE A MERICAN FAMILY

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

Households with Children17

Single Parent Households19

Alliance for Children and Families

N ONPROFIT O RGANIZATIONS ? General Household Profiles21

INDIVIDUALS WITH DISABILITIES22

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

Poverty and Health Insurance24

CHILD WELL-BEING INDICATORS

Alliance for Children and Families

Children in Foster Care

HOUSEHOLD POVERTY AND WEALTH PROFILES

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

H OW W ILL C HILD AND FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ESIGNED ?

Alliance for Children and Families

FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ESIGNED ?

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

H OW W ILL C HILD AND FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ELIVERED ?

THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY

The Sensor Revolution

Alliance for Children and Families

FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ELIVERED ?

TECHNOLOGY AND NONPROFIT PROVIDERS

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

FAMILY S ERVICES B E D ELIVERED ?

Alliance for Children and Families

HOW WILL CHILD & FAMILY SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS BE FUNDED?

Fees for Service Income

T HE G ROWTH OF THE N ONPROFIT S ECTOR

Pursuit of Public Funding

Diversification of Nonprofit Revenue Base

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

H OW W ILL C HILD Professionalizing Charitable Giving

FAMILY S ERVICE O RGANIZATIONS B E F UNDED

Expanded Entrepreneurial Activity

CHARITABLE AND FOUNDATION GIVING TRENDS

Alliance for Children and Families

FAMILY S ERVICE O RGANIZATIONS B E F UNDED

GOVERNMENT FUNDING MENTAL HEALTH & SUBSTANCE ABUSE SERVICES

OTHER NONPROFIT FINANCING STRATEGIES

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

H OW W ILL G OVERNMENT AND S OCIETY I MPACT O RGANIZATIONAL C APACITY ?

EMERGING PUBLIC POLICY PRIORITIES

THE DEMAND FOR ACCOUNTABILITY AND T RANSPARENCY

Alliance for Children and Families

S OCIETY I MPACT O RGANIZATIONAL C APACITY ?

Scenario Planning: Scanning the Horizon

S OCIETY I MPACT O RGANIZATIONAL C APACITY ?