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Comm 225 Winter

2007

SOLUTIONS: Assignment 2
3.5

ii) 12 days. [See the paths and their durations in part vi).]

iii) There are two critical paths: cf and cd. The path with the larger variance is cd
with a variance of 2+4.25=6.25 and standard deviation of 2.5.

P(13 < X < 15) = P([13 – 12]/2.5 < z < [15-12]/2.5) = P(0.4 < z < 1.2) = 0.3849-
0.1554=0.2295

iv) z = 1.88, X = 12 + 1.88(2.5) = 16.7 days

v) p = P(X >15) = P(z > 1.2) = 0.5 - 0.3849 = 0.1151

Expected penalty = 2000p = 2000(0.1151) = 230.2.

If the expected penalty is 50, then 2000p=50 and p=0.025.


z=1.96, X=12+1.96(2.5) = 16.9 days

vi)
Current Length after crashing by one day the activities
Paths Length c d,f
ae 6 6 6
be 3 3 3
bf 10 10 9
cf 12 11 10
cd 12 11 10

Cost of crashing 300 350

Explanation: There are two critical paths: cf and cd. We must reduce the lengths of
both by one day. This can be done in two possible ways: 1) Crashing c by one day
which will cost 300. 2) Crashing d, f by one day each, which will cost 200 + 150 =
350. Choose the first way, which is cheaper.

But c can be crashed only by a maximum of one day. Hence to crash the project for
another day we are left with the only possible way of crashing d,f by one day each at
the cost of 350.
The optimal cost of crashing the project for two days is therefore 300 + 350 = 650.

If the cost slope for activity c is revised to $400, then the cheapest way will be to
crash d, f for both days at a cost of 350 + 350 = 700. This is possible because each of
the activities d, f can be crashed for two days?

3.6)

a)

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF S
a 5 0 5 0 5 0*
b 3 0 3 1 4 1
c 2 5 7 5 7 0*
d 3 3 6 4 7 1
e 7 7 14 7 14 0*
f 4 14 18 14 18 0*
g 3 14 17 18 21 4
h 5 18 23 18 23 0*
i 2 17 19 21 23 4

The critical path is a-c-e-f-h


The project duration is 23 days

b)
Let X = project duration. Mean of X = 23 days, Variance of X = .64+.09+.16+1+.25 =
2.14
St Dev of X = 1.4629. P (X<18) is almost zero.

c)
X = 23 + 1.645(1.4629) = 25. 41 days

d) Crash Actiivity
Paths Durations f by 1 f by 1 a by 1 h by 1

acegi 5+2+7+3+2 = 19 days 19 19 18 18


acefh 5+2+7+4+5 = 23 days 22 21 20 19
bdefh 3+3+7+4+5 = 22 days 21 20 20 19
bdegi 3+3+7+3+2 = 18 days 18 18 18 18
cost 10 10 10 30

The project time can be reduced by 3 days at a cost of 30000. An additional day of
reduction will cost
60000, which is over the budget limit. After three days of crashing, the critical paths are
a-c-e-f-h and
b-d-e-f-h.

3.7)

a)

a) There are 9 paths

b) The duration of path c-f-h-j-1 is 13 days.


c) The earliest finish time for activity "h" is 12.

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF
S
a 4 0 4 2 6 2
b 5 0 5 0 5 0*
c 3 0 3 4 7 4
d 2 4 6 6 8 2
e 3 5 8 5 8 0*
f 1 3 4 7 8 4
g 5 8 13 8 13 0*
h 4 8 12 14 18 6
i 7 13 20 13 20 0*
j 3 12 15 18 21 6
k 1 20 21 20 21 0*
1 2 21 23 21 23 0*
m 2 20 22 21 23 1

c) The slack in days for activity "k" is 0.

d) The duration of the critical path is 23 days.


3.8)

a) The expected duration for activity "b" is 7.17.

te = (to + 4tm + tp)/6


Most Expected
Optimist Likely Pessimist Duration Variance
Activity to tm tp te Vt
a 8 10 12 10.00 0.444
b 6 7 9 7.17 0.250
c 3 3 3 3.00 0.000
d 10 15 20 15.00 2.778
e 6 7 8 7.00 0.111
f 9 10 11 10.00 0.111
g 5 7 10 7.17 0.694
h 14 15 16 15.00 0.111

b) The variance of time for activity "d" is 2.778.


c) The earliest finish (EF) time for activity “e” is 32.00. The slack in days for
activity “c” is 11.83.

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF S
a 10.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 10.00 0.00*
b 7.17 0.00 7.17 11.83 19.00 11.83
c 3.00 7.17 10.17 19.00 22.00 11.83
d 15.00 10.00 25.00 10.00 25.00 0.00*
e 7.00 25.00 32.00 25.00 32.00 0.00*
f 10.00 10.17 20.17 22.00 32.00 11.83
g 7.17 25.00 32.17 39.83 47.00 14.83
h 15.00 32.00 47.00 32.00 47.00 0.00*

d) The critical path is a-d-e-h. The expected duration of the CP is 47 days and the
standard deviation is 1.856.
Std deviation of critical path = sq root of sum of variances of critical path
activities
Std dev = sq root of (.444+2.778+.111+.111) = 1.856.

e) Z = (50 - 47)/1.856 = 1.62


 Prob(X < 50) = .9474
Similarly, Prob(X > 45) = .8599
Prob(44<X<45) = .1401 - .0526 = .0875
f)

If we assume that T is the same as in previous part:

Z = (T+3 – T)/1.856 = 3/1.856 = 1.62. Hence the probability is .9474. This


probability does not depend on T. The probability will always be .9474 and will
never equal 2.5%.

If T is not the expected value: (T + 3 – 47)/1.856 = - 1.96, which gives T = 40.36.

3.9)
Activity Duration ES EF LS LF S
a 3 0 3 1 4 1
b 4 3 7 5 9 2
c 5 3 8 4 9 1
d 3 0 3 0 3 0*
e 6 3 9 3 9 0*
f 7 9 16 9 16 0*

a) The earliest finish (EF) time for activity "f" is 16.


b) The slack in weeks for activity "c" is 1.
c) The critical path is d-e-f. Project duration is 16 weeks.

Per week crashing costs for each activity:


a: (250 - 100)/(3 - 2) = 150/1 = 150
b: (150 - 50)/(4 - 3.5) = 100/.5= 200
c: (450 - 250)/(5 - 4) = 200/1 = 200
d: can't crash
e: (175 - 100)/(6 - 5) = 75/1 = 75
f: (600 - 300)/(7 - 5) = 300/2 =150

Activity e on critical path with least crashing cost should be crashed first.

d)

Paths Durations

abf 3+4+7 = 14 days 14 13 12


acf 3+5+7 = 15 days 15 14 13
def 3+6+7 = 16 days 15 14 13
Crash e by 1 f by 1 f by 1
Cost 75 150 150

d) You cannot spend exactly $200 to reduce the project time. But within a budget of
$200 you can crash the project for one week. Crashing the project by two weeks will
cost $225.

a) The duration of the fully crashed project is 13 weeks. The total crashing cost is
$375.
Note: We did not have to be concerned with the fact that activity b can be crashed
only by ½ week, since it is never on any critical path. If it were on a critical path we
would have to consider the possibility of crashing it by ½ week.

4.12

b. Q* = 397, TC = .5(397)(6.6) + (13000/397)(40) = 2620


c. ROP = 300, If lead time is 10 days then OP=500. This can be broken down
as 500=397 + 103, where 103 is the actual inventory level at the time new order is
placed and 397 is the amount that will be received during lead time from a
previous order.
d. 13000/397=32.75 times per year
e. Cycle time = 7.94 days

4.13

b. Q* = 250,998
c. OP = 24500
d. 875000/250998= 3.47 times a year
e. 250998/3500 = 71.71 days
f. Production run time is 250998/6000=41.833 days. For 71.71-41.83=29.88
days the bags are not being printed.

4.14

Cs = 1.6, Ce = .35, Cs/(Cs+Ce)=1.6/1.95=.8205


P(demand < Q*) = 0.8205
Z=.92
Q* = 800000 + 0.92(60000) = 855,200

4.15

a. Q* = SQRT(2*50*360*42/.24*7.2) = 935.41
b. DDLT is normally distributed with mean 4(50)=200 and standard
deviation = SQRT(4*25)=10
Service level = .95, Z=1.645
OP = 200 + 1.645(10) = 216.45
c. 16.45

4.16

a. E(demand)= 80(.1) + 90(.25) + 100 (.40) + 110(.20) + 120 (.05) = 98.5


b. Cs = 1-0.5= 0.5 Ce = 0.25, SL=Cs/(Cs+Ce)=0.6667

X P (demand < X)

80 0.10
90 0.35
100 0.75
110 0.95
120 1.00

Order 100 cantaloupes (which has a safety stock of 1.5).

c. Cs = .5, Ce = .5, Cs/(Cs+Ce)=.5


Still order 100 cantaloupes.