Comm 225 2007

Winter

SOLUTIONS: Assignment 2
3.5 ii) 12 days. [See the paths and their durations in part vi).] iii) There are two critical paths: cf and cd. The path with the larger variance is cd with a variance of 2+4.25=6.25 and standard deviation of 2.5. P(13 < X < 15) = P([13 – 12]/2.5 < z < [15-12]/2.5) = P(0.4 < z < 1.2) = 0.38490.1554=0.2295 iv) z = 1.88, X = 12 + 1.88(2.5) = 16.7 days v) p = P(X >15) = P(z > 1.2) = 0.5 - 0.3849 = 0.1151 Expected penalty = 2000p = 2000(0.1151) = 230.2. If the expected penalty is 50, then 2000p=50 and p=0.025. z=1.96, X=12+1.96(2.5) = 16.9 days vi) Current Paths Length ae 6 be 3 bf 10 cf 12 cd 12 Cost of crashing Length after crashing by one day the activities c d,f 6 6 3 3 10 9 11 10 11 10 300 350

Explanation: There are two critical paths: cf and cd. We must reduce the lengths of both by one day. This can be done in two possible ways: 1) Crashing c by one day which will cost 300. 2) Crashing d, f by one day each, which will cost 200 + 150 = 350. Choose the first way, which is cheaper. But c can be crashed only by a maximum of one day. Hence to crash the project for another day we are left with the only possible way of crashing d,f by one day each at the cost of 350.

The optimal cost of crashing the project for two days is therefore 300 + 350 = 650. If the cost slope for activity c is revised to $400, then the cheapest way will be to crash d, f for both days at a cost of 350 + 350 = 700. This is possible because each of the activities d, f can be crashed for two days? 3.6) a) Activity a b c d e f g h i 5 3 2 3 7 4 3 5 2 Duration 0 0 5 3 7 14 14 18 17 5 3 7 6 14 18 17 23 19 ES 0 1 5 4 7 14 18 18 21 EF 5 4 7 7 14 18 21 23 23 LS 0* 1 0* 1 0* 0* 4 0* 4 LF S

The critical path is a-c-e-f-h The project duration is 23 days b) Let X = project duration. Mean of X = 23 days, Variance of X = .64+.09+.16+1+.25 = 2.14 St Dev of X = 1.4629. P (X<18) is almost zero. c) X = 23 + 1.645(1.4629) = 25. 41 days d) Paths acegi acefh bdefh bdegi Durations 5+2+7+3+2 = 5+2+7+4+5 = 3+3+7+4+5 = 3+3+7+3+2 = cost Crash Actiivity f by 1 f by 1 a by 1 h by 1 19 days 23 days 22 days 18 days 10 19 22 21 18 10 19 21 20 18 10 18 20 20 18 30 18 19 19 18

The project time can be reduced by 3 days at a cost of 30000. An additional day of reduction will cost 60000, which is over the budget limit. After three days of crashing, the critical paths are a-c-e-f-h and

b-d-e-f-h. 3.7) a)

a) There are 9 paths b) The duration of path c-f-h-j-1 is 13 days. c) The earliest finish time for activity "h" is 12. Activity S a b c d e f g h i j k 1 m 4 5 3 2 3 1 5 4 7 3 1 2 2 0 0 0 4 5 3 8 8 13 12 20 21 20 4 5 3 6 8 4 13 12 20 15 21 23 22 2 0 4 6 5 7 8 14 13 18 20 21 21 6 5 7 8 8 8 13 18 20 21 21 23 23 2 0* 4 2 0* 4 0* 6 0* 6 0* 0* 1 Duration ES EF LS LF

c) The slack in days for activity "k" is 0. d) The duration of the critical path is 23 days.

3.8)

a) The expected duration for activity "b" is 7.17. te = (to + 4tm + tp)/6 Activity a b c d e f g h Optimist to 8 6 3 10 6 9 5 14 Most Likely Pessimist tm tp 10 12 7 9 3 3 15 20 7 8 10 11 7 10 15 16 Expected Duration te 10.00 7.17 3.00 15.00 7.00 10.00 7.17 15.00 Variance Vt 0.444 0.250 0.000 2.778 0.111 0.111 0.694 0.111

b) The variance of time for activity "d" is 2.778. c) The earliest finish (EF) time for activity “e” is 32.00. The slack in days for activity “c” is 11.83. Activity a Duration 10.00 0.00 ES EF 10.00 0.00 LS LF S 10.00 0.00*

b c d e f g h

7.17 3.00 15.00 7.00 10.00 7.17 15.00

0.00 7.17 10.00 25.00 10.17 25.00 32.00

7.17 10.17 25.00 32.00 20.17 32.17 47.00

11.83 19.00 10.00 25.00 22.00 39.83 32.00

19.00 22.00 25.00 32.00 32.00 47.00 47.00

11.83 11.83 0.00* 0.00* 11.83 14.83 0.00*

d) The critical path is a-d-e-h. The expected duration of the CP is 47 days and the standard deviation is 1.856. Std deviation of critical path = sq root of sum of variances of critical path activities Std dev = sq root of (.444+2.778+.111+.111) = 1.856. e) Z = (50 - 47)/1.856 = 1.62  Prob(X < 50) = .9474 Similarly, Prob(X > 45) = .8599 Prob(44<X<45) = .1401 - .0526 = .0875

f) If we assume that T is the same as in previous part: Z = (T+3 – T)/1.856 = 3/1.856 = 1.62. Hence the probability is .9474. This probability does not depend on T. The probability will always be .9474 and will never equal 2.5%. If T is not the expected value: (T + 3 – 47)/1.856 = - 1.96, which gives T = 40.36.

3.9)

Activity a b c d e f

Duration 3 4 5 3 6 7

0 3 3 0 3 9

3 7 8 3 9 16

ES 1 5 4 0 3 9

EF 4 9 9 3 9 16

LS 1 2 1 0* 0* 0*

LF

S

a) The earliest finish (EF) time for activity "f" is 16. b) The slack in weeks for activity "c" is 1. c) The critical path is d-e-f. Project duration is 16 weeks. Per week crashing costs for each activity: a: (250 - 100)/(3 - 2) = 150/1 = 150 b: (150 - 50)/(4 - 3.5) = 100/.5= 200 c: (450 - 250)/(5 - 4) = 200/1 = 200 d: can't crash e: (175 - 100)/(6 - 5) = 75/1 = 75 f: (600 - 300)/(7 - 5) = 300/2 =150 Activity e on critical path with least crashing cost should be crashed first. d) Paths abf acf def Durations 3+4+7 = 14 days 14 13 3+5+7 = 15 days 15 14 3+6+7 = 16 days 15 Crash e by 1 f by 1 f by 1 Cost 75 150 150 12 13 14

13

d) You cannot spend exactly $200 to reduce the project time. But within a budget of $200 you can crash the project for one week. Crashing the project by two weeks will cost $225. a) The duration of the fully crashed project is 13 weeks. The total crashing cost is $375.

Note: We did not have to be concerned with the fact that activity b can be crashed only by ½ week, since it is never on any critical path. If it were on a critical path we would have to consider the possibility of crashing it by ½ week. 4.12 b. Q* = 397, TC = .5(397)(6.6) + (13000/397)(40) = 2620 c. ROP = 300, If lead time is 10 days then OP=500. This can be broken down as 500=397 + 103, where 103 is the actual inventory level at the time new order is placed and 397 is the amount that will be received during lead time from a previous order. d. 13000/397=32.75 times per year e. Cycle time = 7.94 days 4.13 b. c. d. e. f. 4.14 Cs = 1.6, Ce = .35, Cs/(Cs+Ce)=1.6/1.95=.8205 P(demand < Q*) = 0.8205 Z=.92 Q* = 800000 + 0.92(60000) = 855,200 4.15 a. b. Q* = SQRT(2*50*360*42/.24*7.2) = 935.41 DDLT is normally distributed with mean 4(50)=200 and standard deviation = SQRT(4*25)=10 Service level = .95, Z=1.645 OP = 200 + 1.645(10) = 216.45 16.45 Q* = 250,998 OP = 24500 875000/250998= 3.47 times a year 250998/3500 = 71.71 days Production run time is 250998/6000=41.833 days. For 71.71-41.83=29.88 days the bags are not being printed.

c. 4.16 a.

E(demand)= 80(.1) + 90(.25) + 100 (.40) + 110(.20) + 120 (.05) = 98.5

b.

Cs = 1-0.5= 0.5 Ce = 0.25, SL=Cs/(Cs+Ce)=0.6667 X 80 90 100 110 120 P (demand < X) 0.10 0.35 0.75 0.95 1.00

Order 100 cantaloupes (which has a safety stock of 1.5). c. Cs = .5, Ce = .5, Cs/(Cs+Ce)=.5 Still order 100 cantaloupes.

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