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POM:SolutionAssign-2

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POM:SolutionAssign-2

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2007

SOLUTIONS: Assignment 2

3.5

ii) 12 days. [See the paths and their durations in part vi).]

iii) There are two critical paths: cf and cd. The path with the larger variance is cd

with a variance of 2+4.25=6.25 and standard deviation of 2.5.

P(13 < X < 15) = P([13 – 12]/2.5 < z < [15-12]/2.5) = P(0.4 < z < 1.2) = 0.3849-

0.1554=0.2295

z=1.96, X=12+1.96(2.5) = 16.9 days

vi)

Current Length after crashing by one day the activities

Paths Length c d,f

ae 6 6 6

be 3 3 3

bf 10 10 9

cf 12 11 10

cd 12 11 10

Explanation: There are two critical paths: cf and cd. We must reduce the lengths of

both by one day. This can be done in two possible ways: 1) Crashing c by one day

which will cost 300. 2) Crashing d, f by one day each, which will cost 200 + 150 =

350. Choose the first way, which is cheaper.

But c can be crashed only by a maximum of one day. Hence to crash the project for

another day we are left with the only possible way of crashing d,f by one day each at

the cost of 350.

The optimal cost of crashing the project for two days is therefore 300 + 350 = 650.

If the cost slope for activity c is revised to $400, then the cheapest way will be to

crash d, f for both days at a cost of 350 + 350 = 700. This is possible because each of

the activities d, f can be crashed for two days?

3.6)

a)

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF S

a 5 0 5 0 5 0*

b 3 0 3 1 4 1

c 2 5 7 5 7 0*

d 3 3 6 4 7 1

e 7 7 14 7 14 0*

f 4 14 18 14 18 0*

g 3 14 17 18 21 4

h 5 18 23 18 23 0*

i 2 17 19 21 23 4

The project duration is 23 days

b)

Let X = project duration. Mean of X = 23 days, Variance of X = .64+.09+.16+1+.25 =

2.14

St Dev of X = 1.4629. P (X<18) is almost zero.

c)

X = 23 + 1.645(1.4629) = 25. 41 days

d) Crash Actiivity

Paths Durations f by 1 f by 1 a by 1 h by 1

acefh 5+2+7+4+5 = 23 days 22 21 20 19

bdefh 3+3+7+4+5 = 22 days 21 20 20 19

bdegi 3+3+7+3+2 = 18 days 18 18 18 18

cost 10 10 10 30

The project time can be reduced by 3 days at a cost of 30000. An additional day of

reduction will cost

60000, which is over the budget limit. After three days of crashing, the critical paths are

a-c-e-f-h and

b-d-e-f-h.

3.7)

a)

c) The earliest finish time for activity "h" is 12.

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF

S

a 4 0 4 2 6 2

b 5 0 5 0 5 0*

c 3 0 3 4 7 4

d 2 4 6 6 8 2

e 3 5 8 5 8 0*

f 1 3 4 7 8 4

g 5 8 13 8 13 0*

h 4 8 12 14 18 6

i 7 13 20 13 20 0*

j 3 12 15 18 21 6

k 1 20 21 20 21 0*

1 2 21 23 21 23 0*

m 2 20 22 21 23 1

3.8)

Most Expected

Optimist Likely Pessimist Duration Variance

Activity to tm tp te Vt

a 8 10 12 10.00 0.444

b 6 7 9 7.17 0.250

c 3 3 3 3.00 0.000

d 10 15 20 15.00 2.778

e 6 7 8 7.00 0.111

f 9 10 11 10.00 0.111

g 5 7 10 7.17 0.694

h 14 15 16 15.00 0.111

c) The earliest finish (EF) time for activity “e” is 32.00. The slack in days for

activity “c” is 11.83.

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF S

a 10.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 10.00 0.00*

b 7.17 0.00 7.17 11.83 19.00 11.83

c 3.00 7.17 10.17 19.00 22.00 11.83

d 15.00 10.00 25.00 10.00 25.00 0.00*

e 7.00 25.00 32.00 25.00 32.00 0.00*

f 10.00 10.17 20.17 22.00 32.00 11.83

g 7.17 25.00 32.17 39.83 47.00 14.83

h 15.00 32.00 47.00 32.00 47.00 0.00*

d) The critical path is a-d-e-h. The expected duration of the CP is 47 days and the

standard deviation is 1.856.

Std deviation of critical path = sq root of sum of variances of critical path

activities

Std dev = sq root of (.444+2.778+.111+.111) = 1.856.

Prob(X < 50) = .9474

Similarly, Prob(X > 45) = .8599

Prob(44<X<45) = .1401 - .0526 = .0875

f)

probability does not depend on T. The probability will always be .9474 and will

never equal 2.5%.

3.9)

Activity Duration ES EF LS LF S

a 3 0 3 1 4 1

b 4 3 7 5 9 2

c 5 3 8 4 9 1

d 3 0 3 0 3 0*

e 6 3 9 3 9 0*

f 7 9 16 9 16 0*

b) The slack in weeks for activity "c" is 1.

c) The critical path is d-e-f. Project duration is 16 weeks.

a: (250 - 100)/(3 - 2) = 150/1 = 150

b: (150 - 50)/(4 - 3.5) = 100/.5= 200

c: (450 - 250)/(5 - 4) = 200/1 = 200

d: can't crash

e: (175 - 100)/(6 - 5) = 75/1 = 75

f: (600 - 300)/(7 - 5) = 300/2 =150

Activity e on critical path with least crashing cost should be crashed first.

d)

Paths Durations

acf 3+5+7 = 15 days 15 14 13

def 3+6+7 = 16 days 15 14 13

Crash e by 1 f by 1 f by 1

Cost 75 150 150

d) You cannot spend exactly $200 to reduce the project time. But within a budget of

$200 you can crash the project for one week. Crashing the project by two weeks will

cost $225.

a) The duration of the fully crashed project is 13 weeks. The total crashing cost is

$375.

Note: We did not have to be concerned with the fact that activity b can be crashed

only by ½ week, since it is never on any critical path. If it were on a critical path we

would have to consider the possibility of crashing it by ½ week.

4.12

c. ROP = 300, If lead time is 10 days then OP=500. This can be broken down

as 500=397 + 103, where 103 is the actual inventory level at the time new order is

placed and 397 is the amount that will be received during lead time from a

previous order.

d. 13000/397=32.75 times per year

e. Cycle time = 7.94 days

4.13

b. Q* = 250,998

c. OP = 24500

d. 875000/250998= 3.47 times a year

e. 250998/3500 = 71.71 days

f. Production run time is 250998/6000=41.833 days. For 71.71-41.83=29.88

days the bags are not being printed.

4.14

P(demand < Q*) = 0.8205

Z=.92

Q* = 800000 + 0.92(60000) = 855,200

4.15

a. Q* = SQRT(2*50*360*42/.24*7.2) = 935.41

b. DDLT is normally distributed with mean 4(50)=200 and standard

deviation = SQRT(4*25)=10

Service level = .95, Z=1.645

OP = 200 + 1.645(10) = 216.45

c. 16.45

4.16

b. Cs = 1-0.5= 0.5 Ce = 0.25, SL=Cs/(Cs+Ce)=0.6667

X P (demand < X)

80 0.10

90 0.35

100 0.75

110 0.95

120 1.00

Still order 100 cantaloupes.

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