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11 November 2011

Adrian Schmidt: +44 (0) 207 158 8282 Jennifer Hau: +44 (0) 207 975 5014 Gaurav Saroliya: +44 (0) 207 158 1751

G10 FX ROADMAP
Strategic Views
USD slightly better supported as scope for higher yields elsewhere has diminished EUR downside risks now look less substantial as political tensions have eased in periphery, but

upside risks also diminishing as economic weakness sets in Recent GBP gains against the USD and the EUR unlikely to extend far near term, but sterlings safe haven status is growing, and is if anything being bolstered by the latest round of QE. JPY and CHF now looking more vulnerable as the BoJ and SNB have intervened to limit the downside in both currencies. CHF now the favoured funding currency.

EUR/USD Euro-zone weighted average 10 year sovereign spreads over bunds (rh scale) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 170 1.1 220 1 Feb 10 Jun 10 Oct 10 Feb 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 20 70 120

Key Symbols: = - Neutral, =/or =/- moderately positive/negative , or - positive/negative Long term valuation based on FX MacroMetrics see page 5

USD - ROADMAP
THEMES

11 November 2011

While equity markets have been broadly stable in the last two months, yields have declined globally, and this has maintained a mild bid to the USD via contracting yield spreads with higher yielding currencies. The recent US data has been slightly more encouraging, especially relative to the rest of the world, but is still some way short of being strong enough to satisfy the Fed. The latest Fed statement made it clear that they are biased to ease further if the economy doesnt show more positive signs. The USD looks cheap from a long term perspective, but with the current account still in significant deficit, and the basic balance deteriorating, it is hard to argue for a major rally at this stage The USD continues to depend on risk negative news for support. But from here, with rate cuts already priced in elsewhere, scope for USD gains is limited unless global downturn becomes more severe. The US supercommittee reports on the budget on Nov 23, and the apparent lack of progress suggests some USD downside risks. Speculative positioning looks significantly long USD against the EUR and GBP, limiting USD upside potential in the absence of major news. RECOMMENDATION = 1.32 1.43

US 2 year yield spread over index 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09

USD index 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70

POSITIONING

Nov 10

Nov 11

EUR/USD
1.3606

The expected range is unchanged from September, but we see the bias as neutral rather than positive as we did in September, mainly because of the deterioration in euro area economic prospects in the last few weeks, reflected in the rate cut from the ECB last week. There does, of course, remain substantial uncertainty around the euro area debt crisis, with Italy currently the prime focus. The most likely scenario for Italy involves a period of uncertainty until elections early next year, with the most positive scenario for the EUR involving the resignation of Berlusconi. An alternative possibility is a unity or technical government to pass austerity measures in the meantime, though such a government is unlikely to pass structural reforms. But none of the scenarios suggests a quick recovery in confidence, suggesting the EUR is likely to remain under pressure. Nevertheless, there is already a lot of bad news priced into European asset markets, and short speculative positioning in EUR/USD limits the downside, suggesting recent ranges will hold unless the outcome in Italy suggests the necessary austerity and structural reform measures will not be passed even after elections. RECOMMENDATION = 1.55-1.65 GBP has recovered after dipping below our predicted range bottom in September/October, but the range remains essentially intact. Relative weakness in the UK economy is likely to persist in the coming months, suggesting little upside for sterling in the short run if the EUR remains under pressure. However, sterling has been relatively resilient in the last couple of weeks, perhaps reflecting the more active approach of the UK MPC in implementing a new round of QE while the Fed appears more restricted by political pressures. While the knee jerk reaction to UK QE was negative, the previous episode suggested that the implementation of QE may turn out more supportive for the currency if it generates the hoped for asset price gains. Even though there is little reason for any major positive attitude to sterling on these grounds at this stage, significant speculative short positioning makes it hard to make progress on the GBP/USD downside. RECOMMENDATION = 75.50-80 BoJ/MoF intervention has secured the range bottom in USD/JPY, with Y7.5trn of intervention on October 31 judging by the BoJ accounts making it the largest single day of intervention anywhere, ever, and by some distance. In some ways, the fact that nearly USD100bn of intervention only managed to push USD/JPY up 4 figures is indicative of heavy natural demand to sell, but with the BoJ having now twice responded with big intervention to major JPY strength, it would be foolish to assume they will abandon their opposition to JPY strength from here, though there is more risk for the JPY to gain through 75 if the USD were to show more general weakness. However, with yield spreads favouring the USD, positioning still reportedly long JPY and valuation showing the USD relatively cheap, we would see more risks of a break to the upside medium term. RECOMMENDATION =/ 0.85-0.95 The CHF is starting to show signs of independent weakness, helped by the commitment from the SNB, but its risk characteristics may be changing as a result. The SNB have indicated they are likely to be more aggressive in supporting EUR/CHF in deflationary conditions, suggesting the CHF might become the least attractive currency if the EUR comes under pressure because the debt crisis is undermining growth prospects. At the same time, the CHF is likely to retain some risk negative characteristics in the event of a risk rally. It consequently seems likely to struggle in most scenarios, at least until EUR/CHF moves back above 1.25. USD/CHF is now more clearly likely to rise in a risk negative environment, as EUR/USD falls and the SNB limit the downside in EUR/CHF, while in a more risk positive world USD/CHF is more likely to fall in line with EUR/USD gains, though downside still looks quite limited. RECOMMENDATION = 0.99-1.05 Weakening global growth should be expected to limit the upside in risk and commodity currencies, but the CAD is better protected than most because of its larger relative exposure to oil and gas rather than metals, while the proximity to the US is more favourable than a proximity to the euro area given the current relative strength of US growth. Even so, scope for CAD gains below 1.000 against the USD look quite limited unless we see a general recovery in confidence. From a value perspective, the CAD is less attractive than it might be given the deterioration in the current account in the last few years, and is only cheap against the AUD of the G10 risk currencies. Nevertheless, reasonably solid growth data and a secure financial position (and system) suggests it maintains some safe haven characteristics.

GBP/USD
1.5907

USD/JPY
77.47

USD/CHF
0.9077

USD/CAD
1.0226

GBP - ROADMAP
THEMES

11 November 2011

The introduction of QE in October had a negative announcement effect on sterling, but as with the first round of QE, sterling has since recovered and is now up nearly 2% on a trade-weighted basis While QE may have some theoretical long term negative implications for the currency if it leads to higher inflation, in practice any positive economic impact on asset prices and/or the economy from QE in the short term will likely be positive for the currency. Sterling is also gaining increasing safe haven status helped by the very strong performance of the gilt market, which itself is likely to remain well supported by QE. UK economic prospects remain gloomy, with growth still expected to remain well below trend in the next quarter or two, but the growth outlook is still probably seen as marginally better than the euro area in the next couple of quarters, and there are some hopes that lower inflation and the effects of QE will boost growth in 2012. Speculative positioning remains significantly short sterling suggesting scope for sterling declines is now limited with the bad news already priced in. RECOMMENDATION = 1.55-1.65

1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Nov 09

2y spread

gbpusd

1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35

May 10

Nov 10

May 11

Nov 11

POSITIONING

GBP/USD
1.5907

GBP has recovered after dipping below our predicted range bottom in September/October, but the range remains essentially intact. Relative weakness in the UK economy is likely to persist in the coming months, suggesting little upside for sterling in the short run if the EUR remains under pressure. However, sterling has been relatively resilient in the last couple of weeks, perhaps reflecting the more active approach of the UK MPC in implementing a new round of QE while the Fed appears more restricted by political pressures. While the knee jerk reaction to UK QE was negative, the previous episode suggested that the implementation of QE may turn out more supportive for the currency if it generates the hoped for asset price gains. Even though there is little reason for any major positive attitude to sterling on these grounds at this stage, significant speculative short positioning makes it hard to make progress on the GBP/USD downside. RECOMMENDATION = 0.83 - 0.89 EUR/GBP continues to test the bottom end of its range, and a real threat to the years low around 0.83 could develop if the EUR continues to come under pressure because of euro area debt concerns. While the economic impact of such concerns are also negative for the UK, GBP enjoys enough safe haven status to ensure that further deterioration in the euro area can be expected to benefit the pound. It is also less likely now that an improvement in the euro area situation, triggered by effective political decisions, will be enough in the short run to significantly improve euro area economic prospects. Inasmuch as confidence improves, expectations of UK economic improvement may also benefit, so sterling may start to act as a better euro, largely gaining with the EUR against the USD on positive news, but with the likelihood that it will gain sharply against the euro on more severe fallout from the euro area debt crisis. RECOMMENDATION =/ 120-130 BoJ/MoF intervention has effectively protected the downside in USD/JPY, with August and October intervention totalling around th st Y12trn (~USD150bn) on just two days (August 8 and October 31 ) underlining the Japanese line in the sand. While they consistently claim there is no particular level they are protecting, the 75.50 area in USD/JPY is clearly sensitive, although were the USD to weaken more against the EUR and other currencies, USD/JPY might be allowed to drift a little lower than this as well. In practice this means that GBP/JPY is a reasonable proxy for the BoJ/MoF target, with anything below 120 likely to encounter more JPY selling from the Japanese authorities unless it is a consequence of independent sterling weakness. However, the upside is restricted for now because the UK economy remain unlikely to develop any positive momentum at least until inflation starts to fall in earnest next year. Ultimately, the break seems likely to be higher, but prospects of gains through 130 seem quite limited this year. RECOMMENDATION =/ 1.52-1.62 The AUD continues to look vulnerable, as negative EUR news is continuing to have a negative effect on the AUD, even against the EUR. In addition, the recent data from Australia has generally been on the soft side, and this has been acknowledged by the RBA in their forecasts and with their rate cut. While it may still not be the case that Australian rates fall as far as the market is anticipating, the AUD is some way above the levels consistent with the current rate profile, reflecting a major positive risk premium based on the AUDs status as a proxy for Asia. However, if risk appetite were to diminish further from here, recent price action suggests there is plenty more downside for the AUD, while positive political news on the euro area crisis may reduce the negative risk premium on Europe without providing the sort of positive economic boost that is needed to renew demand for the AUD. At these levels, GBP consequently looks the better safe haven. RECOMMENDATION =/ 1.57-1.67 GBP/CAD has broken through the top of the range we predicted in September, reflecting general CAD underperformance against commodity currency peers as well as a generally risk negative tone. General USD underperformance has also been a drag. However, the CAD looks less vulnerable here as long as there isnt a further general risk sell off. Yield spreads suggests this level is close to fair, but there is a lot of easing priced into the Canadian curve which we suspect is unlikely to happen. This suggests some downside risks for GBP/CAD from here, but this depends on some more risk positive news. In the short run upside momentum suggests the resistance levels at 1.64 and 1.65 may be tested and stops may be triggered, but we would see upside breaks as selling opportunities in the absence of clear evidence of Canadian economic weakness.

EUR/GBP
0.8554

GBP/JPY
123.22

GBP/AUD
1.5736

GBP/CAD
1.6266

EUR - ROADMAP
THEMES

11 November 2011

The EUR remains under pressure as the market continues to fret about the solvency of various European governments. Italy is the latest country in the frame, but the latest rise in Italian yields looks a little hysterical, as Italian budget problems are comparatively modest compared to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. While sentiment is likely to stay negative on the EUR in the short run, the long term flow into the euro area evident from the euro zone BoP data suggests that there is underlying investor demand for the EUR which limits the downside. The ECB cut the repo rate at the last meeting and the acceptance from new president Draghi that the euro area is entering a mild recession underlines the downside risk to rates from here. Even so, it is unlikely that the ECB will cut rates below 1%, which was the floor in 2009. While sentiment will continue to fluctuate, and the EUR remains vulnerable to weak growth data, we do not anticipate any cataclysmic event in the euro zone and consequently believe most of bad news is already in the market. Speculative positioning remains significantly short EUR, suggesting risks are shifting to the upside if there is no news. RECOMMENDATION = 1.32 1.43

EUR/USD 3 mth 25 delta risk reversal Euro-zone weighted average spread over bunds (rh scale) 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 -3 -3.5 -4 -4.5 -5 Jun 10 Oct 10 Feb 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 0 50 100 150 200 250

POSITIONING

EUR/USD
1.3606

The European debt situation remains key for EUR sentiment, and the spread of contagion to Spain and particularly Italy in the last couple of months has made it hard to turn sentiment around quickly. Neither of these countries is likely to receive a formal bailout, so their problems can only be resolved by fiscal austerity and growth recovery, both of which will take time. In the meantime the ECB and/or the EFSF can prop the markets up, but as long as this is necessary the market will see the problems as unresolved, especially if Greece is still missing targets. On the US side the focus is on the potential for QE3 and/or other monetary stimulus, as well as the prospect of some fiscal stimulus, although political opposition to the Obama plan is clear. The deterioration in the basic balance in Q2, as net FDI and securities outflows form the US spiked higher, is indicative of underlying problems for the USD which suggest upside EUR/USD risks if the actions to reduce euro area deficits gain a degree of credibility in the coming months. However, in the short run there are probably some more euro jitters which can threaten recent EUR/USD lows. RECOMMENDATION 1.21-1.27 The SNB decision to impose a floor of 1.20 on EUR/CHF by being prepared to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency has proved very effective and so far not particularly expensive. Nevertheless, the SNB would like to see EUR/CHF higher, especially given the weakening growth momentum in the euro area which exacerbates the problems faced by Swiss corporates. Even though we doubt that the SNB will raise the floor to 1.25 or above any time soon, as has been rumoured, it is not out of the question, and becomes more likely the weaker the European economy. The CHF is thus now the opposite of a safe haven if euro area sentiment deteriorates. In the event that there is an improvement in sentiment in the euro area, there will be less upside pressure on EUR/CHF from the SNB, but the tendency will be for the CHF to naturally revert to its typical funding currency status in these circumstances. The CHF consequently currently looks like a worse version of the EUR in most circumstances. RECOMMENDATION = 100-112 BoJ/MoF intervention effectively makes EUR/JPY a very similar pair to EUR/USD for the moment. Currently, the official line in the sand around 75.50 in USD/JPY and the heavy exporter selling near 80 makes EUR/JPY largely dependent on EUR/USD, albeit with slightly larger potential ranges because USD/JPY declines are likely to occur in tandem with EUR/USD declines. If anything, official support for USD/JPY is more likely the stronger the yen is against other currencies (because Japan cares about the tradeweighted yen), making a decline in EUR/JPY below 100 even less comfortable for Japan in conjunction with a decline in USD/JPY below 75. So we continue to see dips towards 100 in EUR/JPY as a buying opportunity in the absence of a catastrophic euro area event. RECOMMENDATION =/ 8.70-9.20 The SEK has been relatively stable against the EUR in the last few months, with negative risk sentiment having its typical negative impact on the SEK, but being offset by the increasing recognition of the SEKs value as a safe haven. In spite of the Swedish repo rate now being 75bps above the ECB rate, 10 year Swedish yields are 10bps below bund yields, underlining Swedens safe haven status and the demand for Swedish government paper. There is still a market expectation that the Riksbank will cut rates in the coming months, but the latest Riksbank minutes, though a little more dovish, dont suggest this is imminent, and we expect them to remain unchanged for the rest of the year. The SEK continues to represent good value relative to other countries with budget and current account surpluses (which means Norway and Switzerland). RECOMMENDATION =/ 7.50-7.90 The NOK has also remained quite stable over the last couple of months, with the picture very similar to that in EUR/SEK. The NOK is seen as more of a safe haven than the SEK because of its massive budget and current account surpluses, but in some ways is less clearly supported by the current account because of the actions of the government pension fund, which recycles the budget surplus into foreign currency, removing most of the flow impact from the current account surplus. Nevertheless, in current circumstances safe haven characteristics are more important than flow dynamics, and Norways oil and gas reserves also make it attractive given the relative firmness of energy prices compared to other commodities, partly because of geopolitical risks. Even so, the high level of the NOK makes any break below the bottom of recent ranges hard to sustain.

EUR/CHF
1.2349

EUR/JPY
105.4

EUR/SEK
9.0974

EUR/NOK
7.748

AUD - ROADMAP
THEMES

11 November 2011

The RBA cut rates by 25bp at its November meeting as widely expected, on AUD TWI S&P 500 concerns of the impact of global tensions on domestic growth prospects. The 115 1400 RBA viewed this as a more neutral policy stance and while they gave no indication of further cuts, markets continue to price 120bp of cuts over the next 1350 6 months. There are risks of further cuts should tensions in Europe continue to 110 1300 drive down domestic demand, but market pricing looks extreme. Domestic data has softened, Q3 core inflation was weaker than expected, and 1250 105 highlighted an easing in inflationary pressures. Trade data showed a decline in goods exports, down 2.8% m/m in September, the lowest levels since flood-hit 1200 February. Consumer confidence and retail sales have been relatively resilient 100 1150 but business confidence has eased, a trend seen globally. The weakening momentum in employment data has eased with employment marginally 1100 improving over the past few months. However the outlook remains weak, the 95 RBA recently downgrade to growth and CPI forecasts for 2012 to 3-3.5% and 1050 3.25% respectively. 90 1000 Demand from China and emerging Asia have remained strong but there are Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 signs of a slow down in China. The AUD remains closely correlated to commodity prices, equities and risk assets. While AUD largely benefited from the risk recovery in October, it has been vulnerable to recent negative news from Europe and weaker risk appetite. Net long AUD positioning vs the USD have risen over the past few weeks after positioning reached low levels in September the lowest since 2010. However positioning is still far from this years high seen in April, which subsequently saw AUD/USD reach 1.10. RECOMMENDATION =/ 0.96-1.07 AUD/USD has been volatile and traded in a wide 0.94-1.07 range over the last couple of months. We are neutral AUD/USD, with a slight bias to the downside, but market volatility will likely continue. Moves in AUD/USD have been largely dominated by market risk appetite and developments in Europe. Spot continues to trade above the levels normally implied by 2y spreads and the market looked unfazed by the recent 25bp cut by the RBA, which was widely expected. The market continues to price in over 120bp of cuts over the next 6 months. Even though this looks excessive, we believe there is a downside potential to AUD and we would not be surprised to see AUD/USD trade below parity. There remains a risk of further rate cuts with market pricing another 25bp cut in December. Should global demand diminish, with risk sentiment still weak given continued uncertainty in Europe there are risks the AUD could weaken further. A failure of the US super committee to agree on $1.5trn worth of fiscal cuts over the next rd 10 years by the 23 Nov deadline could also be expected to put further downward pressure on risk. RECOMMENDATION =/ 1.30-1.38 EUR/AUD is currently trading in the middle of the range, but AUD has been vulnerable to negative news from Europe, more so than EUR. Developments from Europe have largely dominated market sentiment for some time, and with AUD having strong correlations to risk appetite, AUD will largely under perform during risk averse periods. The situation in Europe has improved slightly, with a plan announced at the EU Summit to tackle contagion effects of the debt crisis, and with steps being taken to solve political tensions in Greece and Italy. However, uncertainty in Europe still remains; the EFSF leverage plan has yet to be detailed and the Italian political landscape is still unclear. Market confidence will likely remain soft for some time as uncertainties remain. This should see EUR/AUD stay near the middle of the range, but there are risks from the US at the end of the month, which could have a dampening effect on risk sentiment and push EUR/AUD higher. RECOMMENDATION =/75.0- 83.0 AUD/JPY made new 2011 lows at 72.06 at the beginning of October but has since rebounded as BoJ intervention pushed the cross higher. We see risks to the downside for AUD/JPY should USD/JPY drift towards the 76 level and AUD/USD upside looks limited for now on continued uncertainty in Europe weighing on risk appetite and potential of further RBA rate cuts. There are risks of a break lower, should risk sentiment turn significantly negative, but the BoJ will likely remain committed to stemming JPY strength, which will provide some protection to the downside, and with the EU taking steps to contain contagion effects from the debt crisis, and with progress on the political situation in Greece and Italy, AUD/JPY will likely remain within the range. RECOMMENDATION =/ 1.24-1.31 AUD/NZD has traded higher, up 5.2% since early October. An improvement in risk appetite saw AUD outperform which coincided with the rise in long speculative positioning (IMM). 2Y rate spreads have moved in favour for NZD over the past few weeks but AUD/NZD remains elevated. AUD/NZD will likely trade lower, back towards the middle of the range. The market continues to price in cuts for the RBA while for the RBNZ rates are at the all time low and rates cuts are unlikely from here. There are risks of further rate cuts by the RBA with a 25bp cut priced in for December, but recent poor data from NZ will likely limit NZD gains. RECOMMENDATION =/ 1.00-1.06 AUD/CAD has moved lower into the range after making 2011 highs at the end of October at 1.066. CAD largely underperformed in the recovery in risk sentiment, And will tend to benefit against the AUD if risk appetite stays weak. We have a slight downside bias on AUD/CAD from here. The recent risk-off environment and political tensions in Greece and Italy has seen AUD/CAD trade lower over the past week. Continued market uncertainty will mean market risk appetite will remain subdued which will weigh more on AUD. While rate cuts are also priced in for BoC, we think cuts are unlikely. Data has been relatively resilient in Canada, and will also likely benefit from the better data in the US. And with possible further RBA rate cuts AUD/CAD could drift lower.

POSITIONING

AUD/USD
1.0108

EUR/AUD
1.3460

AUD/JPY
78.31

AUD/NZD
1.3046

AUD/CAD
1.0337

VALUATION - DIVERGENCE

11 November 2011

For a detailed explanation of the FX Macrometrics methodology behind these valuations please see FX Macrometrics, Fundamental FX valuation, 25 October 2010

EUR/GBP NZD/USD EUR/USD AUD/USD EUR/NOK EUR/SEK EUR/AUD EUR/CAD USD/NOK GBP/USD USD/SEK EUR/CHF GBP/NOK USD/CAD GBP/SEK GBP/AUD GBP/CAD USD/CHF EUR/JPY GBP/CHF USD/JPY GBP/JPY -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Undervaluation Overvaluation

SPOT REFERENCES EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD USD/NOK USD/SEK USD/CHF 1.3606 1.5907 77.47 1.0108 0.7748 1.0226 5.6945 6.6864 0.9077

G10 FX ROADMAP
DISCLAIMER

11 November 2011

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