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Housing market intelligence you can count on

Housing market intelligence you can count on

Annual MLS Sales, GTA

Source: CREA, CMHC forecast

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Employment Trend
Toronto CMA (ths.)

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC adjustment

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Debt-to-Assets Ratio (%)


Canadian Households

Source: Statistics Canada

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Growth in Household Credit


(2010M01=100)

Source: Statistics Canada

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Debt Service Ratios (%)

Source: Statistics Canada

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Mortgages in Arrears = 0.38% (ON = 0.28%)

Credit Cards in Delinquency = 1.06%


Avg. Home Equity of Mortgage Holders = 51% Homeowners with Less than 10% Equity = 4% Mortgage Holders Vulnerable to a 1% Rise in Interest Rates = 12% Mortgages with a Fixed Rate = 60%

Mortgages with Amortization Less than 25 years = 78%

Source: Canadian Bankers Association, CAAMP 2011 Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada

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5-Year Fixed Rates

Source: Statistics Canada

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Growth in Listings vs. Confidence


(2006=100)

Source: CREA, Conference Board of Canada

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Growth in Listings vs. Reno Spending


(2006=100)

*Ontario spending on home alterations and improvements Source: CREA, Statistics Canada

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MLS Average Prices, GTA

Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, CMHC calculation

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GTA Housing Price vs. Income Growth


(2001=100)

Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC

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Length of Time to Save 5%*


In Years

*Based on prevailing average gross household incomes, average MLS selling prices, and assuming a 5% annual savings rate Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC

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Actual vs. Required* Income to Buy Avg. Priced Home

*Based on average MLS sales prices, 5% down payment, maximum allowable amortization , and 5-year fixed mortgage rates Source: Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC

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Share of GTA MLS Sales Under $400K

Source: TREB, CMHC calculation

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Growth in MLS Sales Trend

Source: TREB, CMHC calculation

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Fastest Selling Areas


Based on Annual MLS Sales Growth for the last 12 months

Source: TREB, CMHC calculation

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Fastest Appreciating Areas


Based on Annual MLS Price Growth for the last 12 months

Source: TREB, CMHC calculation

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GTA MLS Condo Sales % of Total

Source: CREA

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GTA New Condo Sales

Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC

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Total New Home Sales, GTA

HH Formation

Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance, CMHC

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Share of GTA Condos Used as Rental

Source: CMHC

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Average GTA Condo Rental Vacancy Rate 1.1%

Source: CMHC

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GTA Population Growth: 25-34

Source: Statistics Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance

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GTA Condo Prices Per Square Foot

Source: Urbanation, CMHC

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Growth in MLS Active Listings


Feb 2012,Year-over-year

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GTA MLS Condo Prices


Monthly Growth Trend

Source: TREB

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Newly Completed Units*: Carrying Cost vs. Rent

*Based on average prices and rents for a 600 square foot unit. Carrying cost assumes 20% down payment, 25-year amortization and includes maintenance fees and property taxes Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc., CMHC

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Summary of Key Points


Ownership demand should remain flat Fewer FTBs and more listings should lead to slower price and mortgage credit growth

Considerable opportunities exist within submarkets and housing types


Condo investor activity is due for a pull-back, which will help stabilize the market