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The 21st will NOT belong to China: Economic, Political, GeoPolitical Econ: nothing goes up in a straight line forever:

r: It looks like its gonna inherit the world: Japan looked like that for a while it was the 2nd largest economy: Many of you will remember hearing how the world was gonna become Japanese. Most Asian powers have grown at about 9% per year for 20 to 25 years and then they shift down to 5 or 6%, China will prolly follow that law of large numbers, its simply inevitable Massive inefficiencies: huge property bubble, growth in inefficient: China takes in foreign investment every month what India takes in every year, yet still grows only 2% points faster than India Quality of Chinese growth is not really that impressive considering the amount of investment Huge airports, high speed rail, massive highways being built, return on investment is poor China faces huge problem: gonna have a demographic collapse: gonna lose 400 million people

NEVER in history has as dominant power in the world that is also declining demographically: doesnt happen Japan had that same issue, demographic decline, and is experiencing that right now Size of economy, numbers based on something called purchasing power parity which asks how much money would be needed to purchase the same goods and services in two different countries So their GDP is inflated simply because a haircut in Beijing is lower than it is here in Calgary, but true INTERNATIONAL power, doesnt depend on the price of haircuts depends on foreign aid, oil, other international investments, for all of THAT you need real hard currency and that adjusts these numbers drastically Even if economically strong, does it have the political capacity and necessary leadership. Japan was similarly the 2nd largest economy for decades, there really was no grand hegemonic design

Political capacity is needed to be able to exercise leadership and dominance in the world that is what we are debating Political system in crisis: next succession may not look the same as this, - unstable government which is still very divided between the upper class, and the lower class, between the cities and the rural areas a rising middle class will give new political issues Taiwan had this, so did South Korea, both saw a transition to democracy these are bloody and chaotic periods of time China is a large country a movement for democracy is bound to bring political turmoil political and social instability in such a large nation. Geopolitics: We talk about the Western world, the developing world, the second world, and the Eastern World or Asia. However, China, India, Japan, are very separate. China is not growing in a vacuum: there will be a spirited response in India, in Japan, in Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea MANY competitors

Kissinger: China has grown a lot, but it will be preoccupied with huge problems, internally, immediate environment Concept of one country dominating the world is a misunderstanding of the world in which we now live China has to produce 24 million jobs every year, has to absorb 6 million people moving into the cities every year, deal with a floating population of 150 to 200 million, accommodate a society in which the coastal regions are at the level of advanced countries, but the rural areas are at a level of underdevelopment All in a political system that must adapt to the massive economic changes taking place and the political adaptation that must inevitably result Geopolitically china has been surrounded by smaller countries historically, which themselves have not been able to threaten China, but united could pose a threat (it has never had to deal with large competition, this will be a challenge)

China must accommodate itself to a world in which it is not hegemonial which is different from the last 20 centuries. Issue is not whether or not 21st belongs to China, but in this century, where it will definitely get stronger, but will we work together to create an international structure The world is becoming more interconnected and internationally centered We now have to deal with proliferation, environment, cyberspace, things that can only be dealt with on a universal basis Japan simply points out that nothing grows in a straight line China with the economic, demographic, and geopolitical problems, that last period will be rocky China will be enourmous, but will it dominate the century, no, its too busy dealing with internal problems Demographics, through 1 child family, value system In 30 years, only 2 people working per retired person 2005 there were 9.2 people per retired people

And theyre socialists. We must not confuse magnitude with global influence China will be preoccupied with these issues, and it must adjust to an international community in which it will be a permanent member Not culturally geared for a global role It will need to cooperate, rather than dominate Question: What do you make of the fact that it is not growing in a geopolitical vacuum, in Copenhagen it humiliated the USA Angered Japan at the sincoco islands North Koreans sunk the SK boat, and the Chinese didnt condemn it pissing them off Viets and Philips were enraged because China pushed sovereignty over the south China seas In ONE YEAR, before china even gets to a dominant place These countries will not accept Chinese domination There will be a spirited response

Throughout history, people have gone to war and had rivalries, despite being economically dependent Pelepanisian war had to do with Europe during both World Wars, super interdependent, it was honor and ideological reasons Britain and Germany were some of the largest partners, went to war, conflict doesnt really happen for economic reasons