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Chapter 1

Inference: When we make an inference we are drawing a conclusion from incomplete

information. The science of statistics is to formulate rules about the validity of these

inferences. The realm of valid inferences is called the scope of inference.

randomized experiment is defined as an experiment where the investigator uses some

randomization mechanism to assign experimental units to groups.

Another kind of experiment is the observational study. While we can obtain

much interesting and important information from an observational study, we can not infer

cause and effect and must be very careful as to what conclusions we draw.

Randomization in an experiment helps us control for confounding variables. We cannot

be 100% sure that we have accounted for all confounding variables in an experiment.

However, randomization gives us the best chance that what we observe is caused by the

treatments and not by unobserved variables that are related to both group membership

and the response variable.

Example: Creativity Experiment

The investigator randomly assigns students in creative writing at her university to

one of two groups—the intrinsic group, who completes a questionnaire focusing on

intrinsic rewards for creativity, and an extrinsic group, who completes a questionnaire

focusing on extrinsic rewards for creativity. This is a randomized experiment, even

though the students are not a random sample from the population of all creative writers.

We can infer cause and effect from the results, however, we can not extrapolate to a

broader population than that of the students we are studying.

Population Inference can be justified only from a random sample. Only when

we take a random sample from the population do we have mathematical models for

quantifying the behavior of our population estimates. Randomization gives us the highest

probability that what we sample is representative of the population proportions and

distribution.

Example: Lead content in teeth.

Researchers measured the lead content in teeth and the IQ score for 3,229

children attending first and second grade in the period 1975 and 1978.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses: The questions that we would like to ask of our data

need to be translated into questions about the parameters in the probability model we are

using. This is most commonly done using hypothesis testing, a formulized approach to

inference from a random sample. In the creativity study, the question “Is there a

treatment effect?” is translated in to:

Model: Y*=Y + δ

Where Y is a subject’s score without taking the questionnaire and Y* is the score after,

and δ measures the difference. Hence, δ is the treatment effect and our hypothesis test is

then:

At test statistic is a numerical quantity that we calculate from our data to test the

hypotheses of interest. For the creativity data, the test statistic is the difference of the

averages between the two treatment groups. In order to use the test statistic we have to

know its sampling distribution, or its randomization distribution.

P-value: is the probability in a randomized experiment that the observed test statistic, or

one more extreme, is due to the randomization alone. In order to calculate this value we

need to know the mathematical curve of the sampling distribution of the test statistic or to

conduct simulation or resampling.

interval is the interval in which 95% of the time, the true parameter will lie, if we were to

repeat our experiment a large number of times under the exact same conditions. The

general form of the confidence interval is

statistic ± critical value * SE(statistic)

Chapter 2

Normal Model: A probability distribution. Most of the analyses in this course will use

the normal model, or assume that the underlying distribution is regular and symmetric

enough that the sample estimates are approximately normal, and hence the test statistics

are either normal or t.

One Sample t Test: a test about the population mean where the test statistic has a t

distribution. A true one-sample t test is rarely performed. Often we are interested in the

average difference between paired observations in a sample. In this case, under certain

circumstances, the scaled difference of the two sample averages has a t distribution and

hence we use the same methods as in the one sample t test.

Standard error: of a statistic is an estimate of the standard deviation of its

sampling distribution.

s

. Where

n

n 2

∑( y − y )

i

s =

2 i =1

n −1

Z and t - ratios: the ratio of an estimate’s error to its standard error is a convenient

test statistic. When the standard deviation is known, we use the Z-ratio. When the

standard deviation is estimated, we use the t - ratio. Most often we will need to use an

estimate of the standard error and hence we will most often use the t-ratio.

y − µ0

Example: t = is the t-ratio used to test the hypothesis that the true mean

SE ( y )

is µ0 in a one sample t-test.

y1 − y2 − 0

Example: t = is the t-ratio to test the hypothesis that the true

SE ( y1 − y2 )

difference between paired observations is zero.

Researchers examined 15 pairs of monozygotic (identical) twins where one twin

had schizophrenia and the other did not. They measured the volumes of several regions

inside the twins’ brains using MRI. The observed average difference in the means was

0.199 cm3 and the sample of differences had a standard deviation of 0.238 cm3.

Can the difference be attributed to chance alone?

Two sample t tests: In addition to the normal or near-normal assumption, for the two

sample t test we also require the assumption of independent samples. The observations

within a sample must be both independent of each other and of all observations in the

other sample. The two-sample test statistic is given by

t=

( y1 − y2 ) − ( µ1 − µ2 )

SE ( y1 − y2 )

Where

s12 s22

SE ( y1 − y2 ) = + when equal variances cannot be assumed. And is given by

n1 n2

SE ( y1 − y2 ) =

s 2p

+

s 2p

= sp

1 1

+ where s p =

2 ( n1 − 1) s12 + ( n2 − 1) s22

when equal

n1 n2 n1 n2 n1 + n2 − 2

variances can be assumed.

Note: The course text uses the pooled estimate of the standard error because this is the

estimate used in ANOVA, an extension of the t-test. As mentioned in 444, the unpooled

estimate is considered superior for most tests. However, we cannot use the unpooled in

the ANOVA situation and so we review the pooled estimate here.

Investigators wanted to test whether selection pressure is acting on sparrow humerus

length. After a severe cold snap, they measured humerus length of 24 sparrows that died

and 35 that survived.

Died 24 0.72792 0.02355

Lived 35 0.73800 0.01984

What are the degrees of freedom?

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