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Co.

Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012

Singapore
THE REAL DEALS – Ins & Outs of Singapore Real Estate
The sweet scent of rose
Tough property cooling measures. A dip in the economy. But none of these could douse the dream of owning a home, as evidenced by the sharp spike in sales at private residential property launches in the past two months. January saw 2,077 units sold, representing a whopping 210% jump from just 670 units sold in the previous month. February registered even better results with 3,138 new units sold. Parc Rosewood was the best-performing project in February. Located along Rosewood Drive close to the Seletar Expressway, it is a joint venture between Fragrance Group and Aspial Corporation and comprises 15 blocks of five-storey residential buildings. Surrounding it are several 99-year leasehold condominiums, such as Rosewood Suites, Rosewood, Casablanca and Woodgrove Condo. Further down the road is the recently launched Woodhaven, which consists of a mix of SOHOs, condominiums and townhouses. It is developed by Far East Organization. The take-up rate of both these projects was unexpectedly high and selling prices on average were a 55% premium over other projects in the area. When it was first put up for tender, the Parc Rosewood site drew only three bids with prices ranging from $120m to $151.5m. Fragrance and Aspial paid $151.4m for the 294,719-sq-ft plot in June last year. Based on a maximum GFA of 412,616.4 sq ft, the land acquisition cost would translate to $367.2 psf ppr. We estimate the developers’ breakeven to be around $777 psf. Parc Rosewood offers 689 units, of which 626 have been launched. Demand has been robust so far, with a take-up rate of over 90%. Though the project was originally supposed to hold 390 units, the JV partners have reconfigured the site to accommodate more small units. Thus, studio apartments make up 40% of the total number of units. With prices as low as $398,000, the developers were able to attract a large number of investors. We estimate a rental yield of around 3.5%, taking into consideration Woodsland station becoming an interchange station in 2018. This could be a good chance to sweep up a snazzy new unit.
Artist’s impression of Parc Rosewood

22 March 2012

Source: ERA

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

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Parc Rosewood and Woodhaven
Selling prices for Woodhaven
1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 Apr-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12

Source: URA

The 337-unit Woodhaven was launched in June last year, six months after the award of the $105.1m tender. The land cost translated to $332.9 psf ppr. The 99-year leasehold project saw better-than-expected response, considering its location and lack of transportation in the surroundings at the moment. In the first month of the launch, 155 units were snapped up at a median price of $981 psf. The remaining units were progressively sold throughout the year. The takeup rate held steady, even during the last quarter of 2011 when another 44 units were sold at an average price of $1,040 psf. Of the 39 strata townhouses incorporated into the project, 12 have been sold at an average of $777psf. Selling prices for Parc Rosewood by unit size Unit size <500 sq ft 500-700 sq ft 700-900 sq ft 900-1,100 sq ft 1,100-1,300 sq ft >1,700 sq ft
Source: URA

Min $924 $861 $817 $733 $718

$psf Average $972 $948 $889 $909 $743 $733

Max $1,053 $1,068 $1,025 $752 $747

Min $398,000 $435,674 $644,511 $954,541 $1,229,098

Transaction price Average $424,987 $558,302 $722,785 $880,855 $966,451 $1,272,123

Max $453,262 $633,297 $849,870 $978,361 $1,309,010

Selling prices for Woodhaven by unit size Unit size <600 sq ft 600-800 sq ft 800-1,000 sq ft 1,000-1,200 sq ft 1,200-1,400 sq ft >3,000 sq ft
Source: URA

Min $1,009 $865 $789 $800 $919 $741

$psf Average $1,072 $1,021 $971 $966 $948 $777

Max $1,140 $1,115 $1,038 $1,014 $985 $844

Min $597,260 $540,010 $670,728 $818,430 $1,196,850 $2,835,800

Transaction price Average $635,114 $656,428 $775,857 $1,044,714 $1,260,590 $2,607,660

Max $675,000 $779,818 $868,290 $1,190,000 $1,325,318 $2,489,790

Estimated rental yield in the vicinity of Parc Rosewood 25th percentile ($psf pm) 2.7 2.7 2.5 Median ($psf pm) 2.8 3.1 2.7 75th percentile ($psf pm) 3.1 3.3 2.8 Indicative ASP ($psf) 703.8 765.9 611.0 Gross yield 4.8% 4.8% 5.3%

Project Name Rosewood Casablanca Woodgrove Condo
Source: URA

Tenure 99-yr (fm 2000) 99-yr (fm 2001) 99-yr (fm 1997)

District 25 25 25

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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Recent resale transactions
Project Rosewood Woodsvale Northoaks Northoaks Woodsvale Northoaks Casablanca Woodgrove Condo Northoaks Woodgrove Condo Northoaks La Casa Rosewood Northoaks Northoaks Rosewood Woodvale Casablanca Casablanca Woodsvale Woodsvale Northoaks Woodsvale Northoaks Casablanca Rosewood Northoaks Woodsvale Woodsvale Northoaks Northoaks Woodgrove Condo Northoaks
Source: URA

22 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Property Price Indices 
Contract month Mar-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Nov-11

Size (sq m) 255 126 116 231 114 116 110 199 120 110 116 111 94 116 116 109 122 103 122 120 114 115 119 152 104 137 115 114 119 115 137 200 116

Price ($psf) 546 596 663 440 634 621 811 607 636 655 638 737 779 625 670 739 588 766 685 648 667 679 646 575 791 665 644 668 644 662 617 604 645

Index SRPI Overall (Dec 11) URA PPI (4Q11) HDB Resale (4Q11)  

Level 169.2 206.2 190.4

Change -0.8% +0.2% +1.7%

Government Land Sales (GLS)
Recently Awarded Sites Chestnut Ave / Almond Ave (12.9k sqm, 35 landed units) Awarded to SCB Terraform for $70.8m ($510.4 psf ppr) Punggol Central / Punggol Place (54.1k sqm, 540 units) Awarded to Wee Hur for $206.2m ($354.4 psf ppr) Mount Vernon (72.8k sqm, 785 units) Awarded to CDL / Hong Leong / TID for $388.1m ($495 psf ppr) Jalan Lempeng (68.4k sqm, 685 units) Awarded to IOI Corp for $408m ($554.4 psf ppr) Kovan Road / Simon Road (35.7k sqm, 360 units) Awarded to Hoi Hup’s consortium for $194.6m ($506.6 psf ppr) Jervois Road (12.5k sqm, 140 units) Awarded to Singapore Land for $118.9m ($880.7 psf ppr) Bedok South Avenue 3 (60.2k sqm, 595 units) Awarded to Far East Organisation / Frasers / Sekisui House for $345.9m ($534.2 psf ppr) Hillview Avenue (35.4k sqm, 370 units) Awarded to Kingsford Development for $243.2m ($638 psf ppr) Upper Serangoon View / Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.4k sqm, 435 units) Ho Lee Group Pte & Evia Real Estate for $141.8m ($303 psf ppr) Confirmed List (Recently open for tender) Punggol Central/ Edgefield EC (13.2k sqm, 395 units) Tender closing 29 March 2012 Fernvale Lane EC (22.0k, 770 units) Tender closing 3 April 2012 Elias Rd / Pasir Ris Dr 3 (32.7k sqm, 295 units) Tender closing 11 April 2012 Woodland Avenue 5/Woodlands Drive 16 (25.8k sqm, 720 units) Tender closing 3 May 2012 Tampines Central 7/ Tampines Avenue 7/ Tampines Avenue 9 (20.8k sqm, 580 units) Tender closing 10 May 2012 Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel A) (56.2k sqm, 600 units) Tender closing 17th May 2012 Reserve List (Recently Open for Tender) Jalan Jurong Kechil (14.2k sqm, 240 units) Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495 units) Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (39.2k sqm, 470 units) Stirling Road A (44.5k sqm, 445 units) Stirling Road B (44.1 sqm, 445 units) Sengkang Square (64.4k sqm, 710 units)

Property Stocks
Name Price CapitaLand 3.05 CityDev 11.25 Ho Bee 1.385 HPL 1.915 KepLand 3.41 SC Global 1.055 SingLand 5.89 UOL 4.76 Wheelock 1.8 Wing Tai 1.275 N.A. = No Coverage Disc/ Prem to RNAV RNAV NTA/share* 4.95 -38% 3.51 12.4 -9% 7.51 3.18 -56% 2.34 4.39 -56% 2.7 5.7 -40% 3.64 3.6 -71% 1.59 9.82 -40% 10.74 N.A. N.A. 6.43 N.A. N.A. 2.35 2.81 -55% 2.47 *As at latest reported Disc/ Prem to NTA/share -13% 50% -41% -29% -6% -34% -45% -26% -23% -48%

Tampines Avenue 10 (Parcel B)(47.9k sqm, 515 units)
Source: HDB, URA 22 March 2012 Page 3 of 7

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MARKET SNAPSHOT(CONT’D)
Primary Market
Total no. of units Orchard/ Tanglin/ Holland (9-10) Aspen Linq 18 17 Newton / Bukit Timah / Clementi (11,21) Units sold todate Takeup rate (%) 94% 67% 60% 94% 100% 62% 87% 80% 89% 85% 18% 31% 87% 78% 38% 50% 60% 88% 83% 98% 69% 35% 93% 25% 78% 34% 83% 85% 64% 56% 44% 86% 72% 92% 76% 81% 82% 84% 28% 49% 74% 96% 82% 75% 84% 83% Units sold (Feb) 17 51 21 16 275 36 14 9 8 8 8 43 33 25 11 10 102 22 20 9 8 257 182 174 155 126 116 57 28 22 21 18 17 13 186 90 14 380 187 52 14 13 10 10 9 8
Median

22 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Secondary Market
($psf) 1,951 1,305 1,580 1,631 1,215 1,353 1,201 765 1,421 1,145 1,122 1,159 1,359 1,401 1,484 1,484 906 872 723 852 873 727 1341 1,260 1393 859 879 709 1,270 827 1031 1,010 902 970 752 1,393 705 994 803 878 1,359 1355 1056 707 864 827 District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf Dec’11 1,486 1,735 1,175 1030 1,049 795 923 813 836 $psf Jan’12 1,316 1,879 1,268 1,248 1,142 925 860 996 1,001 MoM % Change -11.4 8.3 7.9 21.1 8.9 16.4 -6.8 22.5 19.8

Thomson Grand 361 242 Nottinghill Suites 124 75 Suites at Bukit Timah 71 67 Balestier / MacPherson / Geylang (12-14) Guillemard Edge 275 275 Centra Residences 78 48 Euhabitat 748 653 Suites 28 64 51 Studio 8 28 25 Vacanza @ East 473 401 Silverscape 45 8 East Coast (15-16) Archipelago 577 178 Bedok Residences 583 507 Treescape 32 25 The Seawind 222 85 The Vanderlint 20 10 Changi / Pasir Ris (17-18) The Palette 892 539 Waterview 696 613 Arc at Tampines (EC) 574 479 NV Residences 642 630 Hedge Park Condo 501 344 Serangoon / Thomson (19-20) Twin Waterfall (EC) 728 257 Watertown 992 924 Bartley Residences 702 174 Casa Cambio 198 155 Riversound Residences 590 198 The Minton 1145 947 Austville Residences (EC) 540 461 Cardiff Residences 163 105 Parc Vera 452 251 The Luxurie 622 275 Terrasse 414 356 Boathouse Residences 493 357 A Treasure Trove 882 811 West (22-24) The Rainforest (EC) 466 355 The Hillier 528 427 Blossom Residences(EC) 602 492 North (25-28) Parc Rosewood 689 577 Tampines Trilliant (EC) 670 187 The Nautical 435 211 Suites @ Paya Lebar 99 73 The Greenwich 319 307 Wood Haven 337 276 Luxus Hills 320 240 The Miltonia Residences 410 344 Eight Courtyards 654 543 Source: URA

Rental Market
District City & Southwest Orchard/Tanglin/Holland Newton/Bukit Timah/Clementi Balestier/MacPherson/Geylang East Coast Changi/Pasir Ris Serangoon/Thomson West North Source: URA $psf pm Dec’11 4.7 4.4 3.3 3 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 $psf pm Jan’12 4.8 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.7 MoM % Change 1.6 5.0 -4.4 6.4 1.1 -1.7 -3.0 2.3 9.2

Top 5 Resale Transactions by $psf
Project Ardmore Park Marina Collection Vida Ying Mansions Four Seasons Park Source: URA Tenure Freehold 99 Yr (fm 2007) Freehold Freehold Freehold District 10 4 9 10 10 $psf 3,640 2,800 2,712 2,602 2,522

Bottom 5 Resale Transactions by $psf
Project Phoenix Heights Baywater Park View Mansion Loyang Valley Elias Green Source: URA Tenure 99 Yr (fm 1969) 99 Yr (fm 2001) 99 Yr (fm 1976) 99 Yr (fm 1982) 99 Yr (fm 1991) District 23 16 22 17 18 $psf 536 547 571 589 597

 

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DEVELOPER’S LANDBANK
Developer District 3 6 9 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 23 23 Sentosa Landbank

22 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Unsold Units 545 119 122 203 178 5 157 12 353 1,517 605 143 528 785 111 110 207 5,699 68 620 290 307 234 94 347 6 1,966 342 39 1,249 55 150 76 509 140 2,560 110 357 467 34 339 373 187 131 248 147 80 20 813 74 84 158

City Dev

Alexandra Road GLS site South Beach (Beach Road) Futura (Leonie Road) Boulevard Hotel (Cuscaden Road) Lucky Tower (Grange Road) Buckley Classique (Buckley Road) Hedges Park (Flora Road) NV Residences (Pasir Ris) The Palette (Pasir Ris) Pasir Ris Drive 8 (4 + 5) (Pasir Ris) Tampines/Upp Changi Rd North H2O Residences (Sengkang West Ave) Bartley Residences (Bartley Road) Mount Vernon GLS site (Bartley) The Rainforest (EC) (Choa Chu Kang Drive) Blossom Residences (EC) (Segar Road) Residences at W (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Marina Bay Suites (Marina Bay) Keppel & GE Towers site (Tanjong Pagar) Reflections at Keppel Bay (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 3 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 4 (Keppel Bay) Keppel Bay Plot 5 (Keppel Bay) Sengkang GLS site (Sengkang Square) The Lakeside Residences (Lakeside Drive) Total Unsold Units The Interlace (Gillman Heights) Urban Resort (Cairnhill Rd) D’leedon (Farrer Rd) The Nassim (Nassim Rd) Marine Point (Marine Parade) Bedok Residences(Bedok Central) Sky Habitat (Bishan Street 14) Yio Chu Kang site (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units

KepLand

1 2 4 4 4 4 19 22

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

CapitaLand

3 9 10 10 15 16 20 26

99yr Freehold 99yr Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr Freehold

Ho Bee

Sentosa Sentosa

Seascape at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Pinnacle at Sentosa Cove (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Spottiswoode Residences (Spottiswoode Park) Archipelago (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Total Unsold Units Skysuites @ Anson (Enggor Street) The Surrento (West Coast Road) RV Residences (River Valley) RiverBay (Mar Thoma Rd) Riviera 38 (Mar Thoma Rd) The Cascadia (Bukit Timah Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr 99yr

UOL

2 16

Freehold 99yr

Allgreen

2 5 9 12 12 21

99yr Freehold 999yr 999yr 999yr Freehold

Wheelock

9 10

Scotts Square (Scotts Road) Ardmore 3 (Ardmore Park) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold

 

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DEVELOPER’S LANDBANK (CONT’D)
Developer District 2 10 26 Landbank Guocoland

22 March 2012
Analyst: Alison FOK 65-6433 5745 alisonfok@kimeng.com

Tenure 99yr 99yr Freehold

Unsold Units 500 381 36 917 89 59 24 88 221 80 232 80 873 249 197 27 595 103 380 136 1 68 471 111 2,338 20 64 38 42 157 35 285 641 70 65 580 58 773 35 208 23 50 31 347 17,925

Tanjong Pagar GLS white site (Peck Seah/Choon Guan) Leedon Residence (Leedon Heights) The Waterline (Yio Chu Kang Rd) Total Unsold Units Skyline Residences (Telok Blangah) The Vermont on Cairnhill (Cairnhill Rd) Paterson Suites (Paterson Rd) Paterson Suites II (Paterson Rd) St Thomas Walk (St Thomas Walk) Watercove Villes (Wak Hassan Drive) Nim Road (Nim Road) Luxus Hills (Seletar Green) Total Unsold Units

Bt Sembawang

4 9 9 9 9 27 28 28

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 999yr

Frasers Centrepoint

9 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 19 27

Starhub Centre (Cuppage Rd) Flamingo Valley (Siglap Rd) Waterfront Isle (Bedok Reservoir Rd) Bedok South GLS site (Bedok South Avenue 3) Seastrand (Pasir Ris Drive 3) Palm Isles (Flora Drive) Boathouse Residences (Hougang) Esparina Residences (Sengkang) Watertown (Punggol) Twin Waterfalls (Punggol Way / Punggol Field) Eight Courtyards (Yishun Ave 2) Total Unsold Units Ascentia Sky (Redhill) HELIOS Residence (Cairnhill Circle) Belle Vue Residences (Oxley Walk) Le Nouvel Ardmore (Ardmore Park) Anderson 18 (Ardmore Park) L'VIV (Newton Rd) Foresque Residences (Petir Road) Total Unsold Units

99yr Freehold 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr 99yr

Wing Tai

3 9 9 10 10 11 23

99yr Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

MCL Land

10 15 17 19

NOB Hill (Ewe Boon Rd) Casa Nassau (East Coast Rd) Ripple Bay (Jalan Loyang Besar) Terrasse (Hougang Ave 2) Total Unsold Units

Freehold Freehold 99yr 99yr

SC Global

9 9 9 10 Sentosa

The Marq (Paterson Hill) Hilltops (Cairnhill Circle) Martin No. 38 (Martin Rd) The Ardmore (Ardmore Road) Seven Palms (Sentosa Cove) Total Unsold Units Grand Total

Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99yr

Source: HDB, URA 

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Stephanie Wong CEO, Maybank Kim Eng Research

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