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Maybank IB Research

Results Review

PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

29 March 2012

Gamuda

Buy (unchanged)

Share price:

RM3.59

Target price:

RM4.10 (unchanged)

Wong Chew Hann, CA wchewh@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8686

Another good quarter

Met our expectation. RM269m 1HFY12 net profit (+47% YoY), which included a partial gain from the sale of land in Celadon City, was 50% of our full-year forecast. The results however exceeded market expectation at 55% of consensus‟ FY12 forecast. 2H earnings are likely to be stronger HoH; we retain our FY12 forecast for now, which implies a 27% growth. There is also no change to our RM4.10 RNAV-based TP and Buy call. The stock offers value at 14% upside to our target and 12.4x FY12 earnings. The sale of LITRAK could be the next catalyst.

Another good quarter. 2QFY12 net profit rose 45% YoY coming from:

Maybank IB Research Results Review PP16832/01/2013 (031128) 29 March 2012 Gamuda Buy (unchanged) Share price: RM3.59

Stock Information

Description: Construction conglomerate with interests in property development, toll and water concessions.

Ticker:

GAM MK

Shares Issued (m):

2,075.4

Market Cap (RM m):

7,471.4

3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USD m):

6.07

KLCI:

1,583.24

Free float (%):

67.5

Major Shareholders:

%

Skim Amanah Saham

8.3

KWAP

8.0

Generasi Setia (M) Sdn Bhd

6.5

EPF

6.2

Historical Chart

5.0 GAM MK Equity 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11
5.0
GAM MK Equity
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11

Performance:

52-week High/Low

RM3.97/RM2.63

 

1-mth

3-mth

6-mth

1-yr

YTD

Absolute (%)

(4.3)

20.4

(2.2)

(3.5)

6.2

Relative (%)

(5.5)

10.0

(5.7)

(8.2)

2.8

(i) expansion in construction works recognition (+10%) and construction pretax margin (+6.4 ppts to 13.4%) which was, in turn, driven by the double track rail project, and (ii) rise in property progress billings (+32%) and the recognition of RM18m gain from the sale of a piece of land in Celadon City to AEON (the RM18m gain is Gamuda‟s 60% share in the development). The land sale gain was just partially recognised in 2Q, with another RM7m+ to be recognised in 3Q.

KVMRT SBK in the bag. MMC-Gamuda JV is awaiting the official award relating to the underground works package of the KVMRT SBK project worth RM8.2b. Accounting for its 50% share in the project would lift its outstanding order book to RM5.8b from RM1.7b, with the existing Ipoh-Padang Besar double track rail project making up 94% of the RM1.7b. Beyond the KVMRT SBK, Gamuda continues to vie for works under the upcoming Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail as well as the MRT2 and MRT3 projects, to be implemented next year.

Sale of LITRAK? Gamuda confirms that PLUS is conducting a due diligence on LITRAK this does not surprise us (see our note on 13 March). However, we think that the takeover of LITRAK should be packaged with that of SPRINT, since LITRAK holds 50% of SPRINT and Gamuda directly holds another 30%. Gamuda could end up with slightly above RM1b in cash (48sen/sh), we estimate, if it sells its entire

45.9% stake in LITRAK at our RM4.20 DCF-based target price, in

addition to selling its 30% direct stake in SPRINT.

Gamuda Summary Earnings Table

FYE Jul (RM m)

2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

Turnover

2,455.1

2,673.2

2,921.2

3,631.2

3,845.9

EBITDA

255.6

371.8

542.0

640.3

678.9

Recurring Net Profit

322.9

425.4

539.3

596.6

629.0

Recurring EPS

16.0

20.7

26.1

28.9

30.5

EPS growth (%)

65.8

29.6

25.9

10.6

5.4

DPS (sen)

9.0

11.3

12.0

13.0

13.0

PER (x)

22.4

17.3

13.7

12.4

11.8

EV/EBITDA

26.4

18.1

12.4

10.5

9.9

Div Yield (%)

2.5

3.1

3.3

3.6

3.6

P/BV (x)

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.6

Net Gearing (%)

18.2

24.4

23.8

22.1

19.2

ROE (%)

9.8

11.9

14.1

14.4

14.0

ROA (%)

5.1

6.0

6.9

7.1

7.0

Consensus Net Profit (RM m)

n.a.

n.a.

493.3

570.0

647.5

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

Earnings Revision (%) Source: Maybank-IB

Gamuda

Summary Results Table

 

Quarterly

 

Cumulative

 

FY Jul (RM m)

2Q12

2Q11

% YoY

1Q12

% QoQ

6M12

6M11

% YoY

Comments (6M12)

Turnover

769.3

607.2

26.7

642.0

19.8

1,411.3

1,241.4

13.7

Growth came mainly from

   

higher construction works recognition, property progress billings and Hanoi land sale to AEON amounting RM70m.

EBIT

143.4

88.6

61.9

114.4

25.3

257.8

147.8

74.4

Interest expense

(19.4)

(16.0)

21.3

(14.0)

38.6

(33.4)

(30.6)

9.0

Interest income

6.6

1.9

245.3

8.8

(25.7)

15.4

15.8

(2.8)

Associates profit

57.7

50.8

13.6

57.9

(0.3)

115.7

102.0

13.4

Pretax profit

188.3

125.3

50.2

167.2

12.6

355.4

235.0

51.2

Property progress billings

   

surged, and strong margin expansion at both construction and property.

Tax

(41.0)

(28.4)

44.5

(33.1)

23.9

(74.1)

(47.6)

55.5

Minorities

(10.8)

(2.9)

268.1

(1.8)

514.9

(12.6)

(4.9)

159.3

Net profit

136.5

94.0

45.1

132.3

3.1

268.8

182.6

47.2

       

EPS (sen)

6.6

4.6

43.8

6.4

3.0

13.0

8.9

45.5

DPS (sen) net

0.0

0.0

NM

6.0

NM

6.0

5.3

14.3

No second interim dividend

   

proposed.

     
 

2Q12

2Q11

% YoY

1Q12

+/- ppt

6M12

6M11

+/-ppt

EBIT margin (%)

18.6

14.6

4.0

17.8

0.8

18.3

11.9

6.4

Pretax margin (%)

24.5

20.6

3.8

26.0

(1.6)

25.2

18.9

6.3

Tax rate (%)

21.8

22.6

(0.9)

19.8

2.0

20.8

20.3

0.6

       
     

SEGMENTAL

     

Revenue:

2Q12

2Q11

% YoY

1Q12

% QoQ

6M12

6M11

% YoY

Engineering & construction

442.6

402.4

10.0

382.7

15.7

825.2

868.8

(5.0)

Near completion of NDIA

   

offset by rising recognition for double track rail and Yenso infrastructure.

Property development

295.6

171.5

72.4

225.2

31.3

520.9

308.9

68.6

Strong RM870m sales in

   

1HFY12 (+50% YoY).

Water O&M & toll exp

31.1

33.4

(6.7)

34.1

(8.7)

65.2

63.7

2.3

Total

769.3

607.2

26.7

642.0

19.8

1,411.3

1,241.4

13.7

       

Pretax profit

2Q12

2Q11

% YoY

1Q12

% QoQ

6M12

6M11

% YoY

Engineering & construction

59.2

28.0

111.2

42.7

38.6

102.0

53.8

89.5

Margins rose 6.2 ppts YoY.

Property development

68.3

31.4

117.9

54.4

25.5

122.8

54.3

126.2

Margins rose 6.0 ppts YoY

   

and boosted by Hanoi land sale (in Celadon City) to AEON (RM18m in 2QFY12).

Water O&M & toll exp

3.0

15.1

(80.2)

12.1

(75.2)

15.0

24.9

(39.6)

Associates profit:

57.7

50.8

13.6

57.9

(0.3)

115.7

102.0

13.4

Water & expressways

54.3

49.8

9.0

53.6

1.3

107.9

98.0

10.1

Property development

3.5

1.1

225.8

4.3

(20.5)

7.8

4.1

91.1

Total

188.3

125.3

50.2

167.2

12.6

355.4

235.0

51.2

       

Pretax margin

2Q12

2Q11

+/- ppt

1Q12

+/- ppt

6M12

6M11

+/-ppt

Engineering & construction

13.4%

7.0%

6.4

11.2%

2.2

12.4%

6.2%

6.2

Property development

24.3%

19.0%

5.3

26.1%

(1.8)

23.6%

17.6%

6.0

Water O&M & toll exp

55.3%

58.4%

(3.2)

34.6%

20.7

23.5%

22.2%

1.3

Overall

24.5%

20.6%

3.8

26.0%

(1.6)

25.2%

18.9%

6.3

       

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB

Gamuda

Gamuda’s construction order book: RM5.8b outstanding (at 30 Jan 2012)

 

Outstanding

Status

(RM m)

Domestic

Double-tracking rail

1,600

77% completed (vs. 71% @

Oct ‟11).

(northern section)

Completion timeline:

  • Padang Besar-Ipoh (spine line): Jun

„14

  • Bkt Mertajam-Butterworth (spurline):

Nov „14

KVMRT Tunneling

4,100

At mobilising stage. To complete in

 

2017.

Overseas

New Doha International Airport, Qatar (P1 & 2)

-

100% completed (vs. 98% @ Oct ‟11). Preparing for handover in July „12.

Nam Theun I, Laos

1,800

No developments; works not started.

Yenso infrastructure

100

98% completed (vs. 95% @ Oct ‟11). Testing and commissioning now.

 

Handover in May „12.

Total

7,600

Total (ex-Nam Theun 1)

5,800

Source: Company

MRT-SBK update. 27 work packages worth RM10.5b (53% of total value) have been awarded while another 16 packages are at tender stage and another 45 packages are scheduled to be awarded by Oct 2012 (worth total RM6.3b). Out of the yet-to-be awarded packages, three viaducts (V1, V2 and V7) will be awarded in Apr-May 12 and we expect the value to be sizeable at RM0.5b-RM1b, with two of the three packages reserved for Bumiputera contractors.

KVMRT tunnelling groundwork starting soon. Management expects the formal letter of award of the RM8.2b (stations: 60%, tunnelling:

40%) to be given to the MMC-Gamuda JV soon as MRT Corporation has already announced the award in public. To kick-start the project, MRT Corp will give an advance payment of 5% to the MMC-Gamuda JV. Groundwork (i.e. carpet bombing at Cochrane) will start in Apr „12 and excavation of the tunnels is targeted to start in mid-2013.

Beyond the MRT-SBK. Gamuda is awaiting the government‟s decision on the RM8b Gemas-Johor Baru double track rail project. It is believed to be teaming up with China Railway Construction Co. for this job. Assuming a 50:50 JV, this job could add another RM4b to Gamuda‟s order book, lifting total outstanding works to above RM10b. In addition, Gamuda continues to vie for works relating to the MRT2 Orbital Line (41km 40% tunnel, 30 stations) and MRT3 North-South Line (46km 20% tunnel, 24 stations) with schedule implementation from mid-2013.

Robust property sales. New sales in 1HFY12 was RM870m (+50% YoY), lifting unbilled sales to RM1.3b (end-Oct 2011: RM1.2b). The key drivers are Bandar Botanic, Horizon Hills, Jade Hills and Gamuda City. Gamuda retains its RM1.35b domestic sales target for FY12. Over at Vietnam, initial sales at Celadon City reflects the sluggish property sector especially for apartments but strong response was seen at Gamuda City. The first two launches were fully taken-up and third launch is also almost fully sold (RM220m sales in first 4 months). FY12 sales target for Vietnam is retained at RM650m as the upward revision in Gamuda City compensates for the downward revision in Celadon.

Gamuda

Jan-05

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-03

Jan-00

Jan-04

Jan-10

Jan-12

Jan-02

Jan-01

Jan-11

Gamuda’s property landbanks and GDVs

Projects

Remaining

Remaining

FY10A

FY11A

FY12F

FY13F

land area

GDV

sales

sales

sales

sales

(acres)

(RM m)

(RM m)

(RM m)

(RM m)

(RM m)

Malaysia

   

K Kemuning

25

150

  • 100 100

80

70

Valencia

10

80

  • 110 100

50

30

Botanic

150

1,200

  • 330 670

650

450

Horizon Hills

760

3,700

  • 140 270

320

370

Jade Hills

230

1,300

  • 140 180

220

250

Madge

2

300

  • - -

30

80

Jln Robertson

3

600

  • - -

-

100

Sub-total (1)

1,180

7,330

820

1,320

1,350

1,350

Vietnam

   

Gamuda City

450

9.000

  • - -

500

750

Celadon City

200

5,000

  • - -

150

250

Sub-total (2)

650

14,000

  • - -

650

1,000

Total (1) + (2)

1,830

21,330

820

1,320

2,000

2,350

Sources: Company, Maybank IB

Gamuda: Foreign shareholding

70% 60% 50% Feb 2012: 33% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-07 Jul-07 Oct -07 Jan-08
70%
60%
50%
Feb 2012: 33%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Mar-07
Jul-07
Oct -07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct -08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct -09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct -10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct -11
Jan-12

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank IB

Gamuda: Rolling one-year forward PER

(x)

40

30

20

10

0

+1sd: 21.0 Mean: 16.0
+1sd: 21.0
Mean: 16.0

-1sd: 11.0

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank IB

Gamuda

INCOME STATEMENT (RM m)

BALANCE SHEET (RM m)

FY Jul

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

FY Jul

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

Revenue

2,673.2

2,921.2

3,631.2

3,845.9

Fixed Assets

345.7

388.6

430.1

470.1

EBITDA

371.8

542.0

640.3

678.9

Other LT Assets

2,517.7

2,741.4

2,956.3

3,181.8

Depreciation & Amortisation

(19.2)

(20.7)

(22.4)

(24.2)

Cash/ST Investments

1,049.0

1,100.2

1,197.0

1,361.0

Operating Profit

352.6

521.2

617.9

654.7

Other Current Assets

3,638.9

3,773.5

4,108.6

4,230.7

Associates

222.4

227.3

218.8

229.7

Total Assets

7,551.3

8,003.6

8,691.9

9,243.6

Interest (Exp)/Inc

(30.5)

(34.9)

(39.3)

(43.8)

Exceptional Items

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ST Debt

626.2

657.5

690.4

724.9

Pretax Profit

544.5

713.7

797.3

840.6

Other Current Liabilities

1,543.6

1,597.9

1,845.9

1,919.4

Tax

(111.6)

(165.4)

(190.9)

(201.6)

LT Debt

1,323.5

1,389.7

1,459.1

1,532.1

Minority Interest

(7.5)

(9.0)

(9.8)

(10.1)

Other LT Liabilities

171.2

171.2

171.2

171.2

Net Profit

425.4

539.3

596.6

629.0

Minority Interest

200.3

209.3

219.1

229.2

Recurring Net Profit

425.4

539.3

596.6

629.0

Shareholders' Equity

3,686.6

3,978.1

4,306.3

4,666.9

 

Total Liabilities+Capital

7,551.3

8,003.6

8,691.9

9,243.6

Revenue Growth %

8.9

9.3

24.3

5.9

EBITDA Growth (%)

45.5

45.8

18.1

6.0

Share Capital (m)

2,064.8

2,064.8

2,064.8

2,064.8

EBIT Growth (%)

48.3

47.8

18.5

6.0

Net Debt

900.7

947.0

952.5

896.0

Net Profit Growth (%)

31.7

26.8

10.6

5.4

Working Capital

2,112.2

2,199.2

2,292.7

2,344.2

Recurring Net Profit Growth (%)

31.7

26.8

10.6

5.4

Gross Gearing %

52.9

51.5

49.9

48.4

Tax Rate %

20.5

23.2

23.9

24.0

CASH FLOW (RM m)

RATES & RATIOS

FY Jul

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

FY Jul

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

Profit after taxation

544.5

713.7

797.3

840.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

13.9

18.6

17.6

17.7

Depreciation

19.2

20.7

22.4

24.2

Op. Profit Margin (%)

13.2

17.8

17.0

17.0

Net interest receipts/(payments)

30.5

34.9

39.3

43.8

Net Profit Margin (%)

15.9

18.5

16.4

16.4

Working capital change

(601.0)

(87.0)

(93.5)

(51.5)

ROE (%)

11.9

14.1

14.4

14.0

Cash tax paid

(111.6)

(165.4)

(190.9)

(201.6)

ROA (%)

6.0

6.9

7.1

7.0

Others

(176.0)

(558.0)

(557.0)

(557.0)

Net Margin Ex. El %

15.9

18.5

16.4

16.4

Cash flow from operations

(294.3)

(41.1)

17.7

98.6

Dividend Cover (x)

1.8

2.2

2.2

2.3

Capex

(59.9)

(60.0)

(60.0)

(60.0)

Interest Cover (x)

6.0

8.4

9.5

9.6

Disposal/(purchase)

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Asset Turnover (x)

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Others

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Asset/Debt (x)

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.1

Cash flow from investing

(59.9)

(60.0)

(59.0)

(59.0)

Debtors Turn (days)

130.5

130.5

130.5

130.5

Debt raised/(repaid)

159.7

467.1

472.0

477.1

Creditors Turn (days)

99.1

99.1

99.1

99.1

Equity raised/(repaid)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Inventory Turn (days)

67.5

67.5

67.5

67.5

Dividends (paid)

(232.3)

(247.8)

(268.4)

(268.4)

Net Gearing %

24.4

23.8

22.1

19.2

Others

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debt/ EBITDA (x)

5.2

3.8

3.4

3.3

Cash flow from financing

(72.6)

219.3

203.5

208.6

Debt/ Market Cap (x)

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Change in cash

(426.8)

118.2

162.2

248.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

18.7

12.9

10.9

10.3

Sources: Company, Maybank IB

Gamuda

ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES

MALAYSIA
MALAYSIA

WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com

Strategy

Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CHNG, ACA

(603) 2297 8680 desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com

Banking - Regional LIAW Thong Jung

(603) 2297 8688 tjliaw@maybank-ib.com

Oil & Gas

Automotive

Shipping ONG Chee Ting

(603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com

Plantations

Mohshin AZIZ

(603) 2297 8692 mohshin.aziz@maybank-ib.com

Aviation

Petrochem

Power YIN Shao Yang, CPA

(603) 2297 8916 samuel.y@maybank-ib.com

Gaming Regional

Media

Power WONG Wei Sum, CFA

(603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com

Property & REITs

LEE Yen Ling

(603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com

Building Materials

Manufacturing

Technology

LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technicals

HONG KONG / CHINA

Edward FUNG Head of Research (852) 2268 0632 edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk

Construction

Ivan CHEUNG

(852) 2268 0634 ivancheung@kimeng.com.hk

Property

Industrial Ivan LI

(852) 2268 0641 ivanli@kimeng.com.hk

Banking & Finance Jacqueline KO

(852) 2268 0633 jacquelineko@kimeng.com.hk

Consumer Staples

Andy POON

(852) 2268 0645 andypoon@kimeng.com.hk

Telecom & equipment Samantha KWONG

(852) 2268 0640 samanthakwong@kimeng.com.hk

Consumer Discretionaries

Alex YEUNG

(852) 2268 0636 alexyeung@kimeng.com.hk

Industrial

Catherine CHAN

(852) 2268 0631 catherinechan@kimeng.com.hk

Cement

INDIA

Jigar SHAH Head of Research

(91) 22 6623 2601 jigar@kimeng.co.in

Oil & Gas

Automobile

Cement Anubhav GUPTA

(91) 22 6623 2605 anubhav@kimeng.co.in

Metal & Mining

Capital goods

Property Haripreet BATRA

(91) 226623 2606 haripreet@kimeng.co.in

Software

Media

Ganesh RAM

(91) 226623 2607 ganeshram@kimeng.co.in

Telecom

Contractor

Gagan KWATRA

(91 )226623 2612 gagan@kimeng.co.in

Small Cap

SINGAPORE
SINGAPORE

Stephanie WONG Head of Research (65) 6432 1451 swong@maybank-ke.com.sg

Strategy

Small & Mid Caps Gregory YAP

(65) 6432 1450 gyap@maybank-ke.com.sg

Technology & Manufacturing

Telcos - Regional Rohan SUPPIAH

(65) 6432 1455 rohan@maybank-ke.com.sg

Airlines

Marine & Offshore Wilson LIEW

(65) 6432 1454 wilsonliew@maybank-ke.com.sg

Hotel & Resort

Property & Construction Anni KUM

(65) 6432 1470 annikum@maybank-ke.com.sg

Conglomerates

REITs

James KOH

(65) 6432 1431 jameskoh@maybank-ke.com.sg

Logistics

Resources

Small/ Mid cap Eric ONG

(65) 6432 1857 ericong@maybank-ke.com.sg

Marine & Offshore

Transportation

Energy

OOI Yi Tung

(65) 6433 5712 ooiyitung@maybank-ke.com.sg

Property & Construction

YEAK Chee Keong, CFA

(65) 6433 5730 yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg

Retail & Consumer

Engineering

Infrastructure

Alison FOK

(65) 6433 5745 alisonfok@maybank-ke.com.sg

Services

Bernard CHIN

(65) 6433 5726 bernardchin@maybank-ke.com.sg

Conglomerates

Industrials

INDONESIA

Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research

(62) 21 2557 1125 ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id

Consumer

Strategy

Telcos Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA

(62) 21 2557 1127 lariesandi@kimeng.co.id

Base metals

Coal

Heavy Equipment

Oil & Gas Rahmi MARINA

(62) 21 2557 1128 rmarina@kimeng.co.id

Banking

Multifinance Pandu ANUGRAH

(62) 21 2557 1137 panugrah@kimeng.co.id

Auto

Heavy equipment

Plantation

Toll road

Adi N. WICAKSONO

(62) 21 2557 1130 anwicaksono@kimeng.co.id

Generalist

Anthony YUNUS

(62) 21 2557 1134 ayunus@kimeng.co.id

Cement

Infrastructure

Property

Arwani PRANADJAYA

(62) 21 2557 1129 apranadjaya@kimeng.co.id

Technicals

REGIONAL

WONG Chew Hann, CA

Regional Head of Research

(603) 2297 8686 wchewh@maybank-ib.com

THAM Mun Hon

(852) 2268 0630 thammunhon@kimeng.com.hk

Regional Strategist

ONG Seng Yeow

(852) 2268 0644 ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg

Regional Products & Planning

THAILAND
THAILAND

Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN Head of Research

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1440 mayuree.c@maybank-ke.co.th

Strategy

Maria BRENDA SANCHEZ LAPIZ Co-Head of Research

Dir (66)-2257-0250 | (66)-2658-6300 ext 1399

Maria.L@maybank-ke.co.th

Suttatip PEERASUB

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1430 suttatip.p@maybank-ke.co.th

Media

Commerce

Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1400 sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th

Energy

Petrochem

Termporn TANTIVIVAT

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1520 termporn.t@maybank-ke.co.th

Property Woraphon WIROONSRI

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1560 woraphon.w@maybank-ke.co.th

Banking & Finance

Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1404 jaroonpan.w@maybank-ke.co.th

Transportation

Small cap.

Suchot THIRAWANNARAT

(66)-2658-6300 ext 1550 suchot.t@maybank-ke.co.th

Automotive

Construction Materials

Soft commodity

PHILIPPINES

Luz LORENZO Head of Research

+63 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com

Strategy Laura DY-LIACCO

(63) 2 849 8840 laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com

Utilities

Conglomerates

Telcos Lovell SARREAL

(63) 2 849 8841 lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com

Consumer

Media

Cement

Mining

Kenneth NERECINA

(63) 2 849 8839 kenneth_nerecina@maybank-atrke.com

Conglomerates

Property

Ports/ Logistics

Katherine TAN

(63) 2 849 8843 kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com

Banks

Construction

VIETNAM

Michael Kokalari, CFA Head of Research

+84 838 38 66 47 michael.kokalari@kimeng.com.vn

Strategy

Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8081 tuyen.nguyen@kimeng.com.vn

Confectionary and Beverage

Oil and Gas

Ngo Bich Van

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8084 van.ngo@kimeng.com.vn

Banking

Insurance

Nguyen Quang Duy

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8082 duy.nguyenquang@kimeng.com.vn

Resources

Property

Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep

+84 444 55 58 88 x 8208 diep.trinh@kimeng.com.vn

Property & Construction

Power

Dang Thi Kim Thoa

+84 844 55 58 88 x 8083 thoa.dang@kimeng.com.vn

Consumer & Services

Technology & Telecom

Nguyen Trung Hoa

+84 844 55 58 88

Pharmaceutical

Fishery

ECONOMICS

Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist (603) 2297 8682 suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com

Singapore | Malaysia

Luz LORENZO Economist

(63) 2 849 8836 luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com

Philippines | Indonesia

Gamuda

Definition of Ratings

APPENDIX 1

Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:

BUY

Total return is

expected to be above 15% in the next 12 months

HOLD

Total return is expected to be between -15% to 15% in the next 12 months

SELL

Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):

Adex = Advertising Expenditure BV = Book Value CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate Capex = Capital Expenditure CY = Calendar Year DCF = Discounted Cashflow DPS = Dividend Per Share EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation EPS = Earnings Per Share

FCF = Free Cashflow FV = Fair Value FY = Financial Year FYE = Financial Year End MoM = Month-On-Month NAV = Net Asset Value NTA = Net Tangible Asset P = Price P.A. = Per Annum

PE = Price Earnings PEG = PE Ratio To Growth PER = PE Ratio QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter ROA = Return On Asset ROE = Return On Equity

ROSF = Return On Shareholders‟ Funds

WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

YoY = Year-On-Year

PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date

EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

Disclaimer

This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security‟s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”,

“should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on thes e forward- looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Berhad expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrenc e of unanticipated events.

This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and Maybank Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Gamuda

Malaysia

Singapore

London

New York

 

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad

(A Participating Organisation of

9

Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd

Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc

Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)

Temasek Boulevard

6/F, 20 St. Dunstan’s Hill

777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor

33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,

#39-00 Suntec Tower 2

London EC3R 8HY, UK

New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.

100 Jalan Tun Perak,

 

Singapore 038989

50050

Kuala Lumpur

Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298

Tel: (212) 688 8886

Tel: (603) 2059 1888;

 

Tel: (65) 6336 9090

Dealers’ Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828

Fax: (212) 688 3500

Fax: (603) 2078 4194

Fax: (65) 6339 6003

Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

Stockbroking Business:

Hong Kong

Indonesia

India

Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,

Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd

PT Kim Eng Securities

Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd

No.1, Jalan Maarof

Level 30,

Plaza Bapindo

2nd Floor, The International 16,

59000

Kuala Lumpur

Three Pacific Place,

Citibank Tower 17 th Floor

Maharishi Karve Road,

Tel: (603) 2297 8888

1

Queen’s Road East,

Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55

Churchgate Station,

Fax: (603) 2282 5136

Hong Kong

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Mumbai City - 400 020, India

 

Tel: (852) 2268 0800

Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188

Tel: (91).22.6623.2600

Fax: (852) 2877 0104

Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Saudi Arabia

 

Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities

17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza

Maybank Kim Eng Securities

In association with

In association with

Inc.

(Thailand) Public Company Limited

Kim Eng Vietnam Securities Company

Anfaal Capital

Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah

Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St.

Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz

Makati City, Philippines 1200

20 th - 21 st Floor, Rama 1 Road Pathumwan,

District 1 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Street P.O. Box 126575 Jeddah 21352

Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

 

Bangkok 10330, Thailand

Tel : (84) 838 38 66 36

Tel: (966) 2 6068686

 

Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales) Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading

Connie TAN connie@maybank-ke.com.sg Tel: (65) 6333 5775 US Toll Free: 1 866 406 7447

North Asia Sales Trading

Eddie LAU eddielau@kimeng.com.hk Tel: (852) 2268 0800 US Toll Free: 1 866 598 2267

www.maybank-ke.com | www.kimengresearch.com.sg

APPENDIX 1

Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in Singapore)

This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein maybe subject to change. Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd ("KERPL") in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. Recipients of this report are to contact KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. As of 29 March 2012, KERPL does not have an interest in the said company/companies.

Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in the United States)

This research report prepared by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Kim Eng Securities USA, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Kim Eng Securities USA in the US shall be borne by Kim Eng. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This report is not directed at you if Kim Eng Securities is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Kim Eng Securities is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from other than Malaysia. As of 29 March 2012, Maybank Investment Bank Berhad and the covering analyst does not have any interest in in any companies recommended in this Market themes report. Analyst Certification:

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Additional Disclaimer (for purpose of distribution in the United Kingdom)

This document is being distributed by Kim Eng Securities Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only.This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

Published / Printed by

Gamuda Malaysia Singapore London New York Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of 9

Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business:

Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com

29 March 2012 Page 8 of 8

Gamuda Malaysia Singapore London New York Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of 9