PITCHING FORECAST

Johan Santana – April 5 vs. Tommy Hanson

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
April 5, 7-8 @ Citi Field

Bullpen

Once considered the most dominant left-handed pitcher in baseball, Santana will take the mound in Pitcher IP PTN% K% K/BB WPA fWAR xFIP a regular season game for the first time since September 5, 2010 – a total of 578 days – with a surgiMiguel Batista 60.0 62 11.8 0.94 0.79 -0.1 5.20 cally repaired shoulder. Since joining the Mets in 2008, Santana has posted an xFIP nearly at or above one point higher than his ERA each season. Due to his injury, his repertoire Four-seam Fastball — 14% (93.18); Sinker — 38% (93.25); Cutter — 37% (88.14); Slider — 4% (79.91); Changeup 6% (83.24) may suffer, although old data is all we have to use at this point. He features both a two-seam (30% vs. RHB, 23% vs. LHB) and four-seam fastball (25% vs. RHB, 40% vs. LHB), but his changeup Bobby Parnell 59.1 57 23.9 2.37 -2.86 0.6 3.46 is his most prominent pitch. In fact, batters make contact 69.7% of the time against his changeup, whereas his other pitches range from 77-93%. He also throws a slider, but Sinker — 76% (96.42); Slider — 20% (87.64); Splitter 3% (89.10) he mainly throws it when ahead in the count. This spring, Santana displayed a 3.44 ERA and 1.31 Manny Acosta 47.0 58 22.6 3.07 1.20 0.1 3.60 WHIP with 13 strikeouts in 18.1 innings of work. In 12 career starts against Atlanta, Santana has posted a 2.28 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.21 K/BB. Four-seam — 59% (95.08); Slider — 29% (81.73); Changeup — 12% (85.91)

R.A. Dickey — April 7 vs. Jair Jurrjens
If it wasn’t for his knuckleball, Dickey would have never pitched an inning in the big leagues. After all, he only throws one other pitch: a “fastball,” that tops out in the mid 80’s. Due to his strong reliance on his knuckleball, his results can be very unpredictable, however, he uses it nearly 75-77% of the time, regardless of the situation. In 10 career starts against the Braves, Dickey has posted a 4.01 ERA with a 1.399 WHIP and 29 strikeouts in 49.1 innings pitched. The key with facing Dickey is to be patient and force him to throw fastballs solely because of the unpredictable nature of his fastball. The results of his starts rarely depend on the offensive team, rather the ability for Dickey to throw strikes.

Tim Byrdak (L)

37.2

65

28.0

2.47

-0.94

0.4

3.39

Four-seam — 36% (90.17); Sinker — 12% (89.90); Slider 42% (82.53); Changeup — 10% (83.24)

Ramon Ramirez Jon Rauch

68.2 52.0

72 48

23.4 16.0

2.54 2.57

0.35 -0.43

0.9 -0.6

3.47 4.56

Four-seam — 48% (93.58); Slider — 30% (88.12); Changeup — 22% (88.85)

Four-seam — 44% (91.90); Sinker — 11% (91.33); Slider — 27% (85.22); Curveball — 11% (75.01); Changeup — 6% (85.09)

Jon Niese — April 8 vs. Mike Minor
Earlier this week, Niese was handsomely rewarded with a five-year, $25.5 million deal worth up to $46 million with incentives. Even though his bare numbers of 370.2 career Major League innings with a 4.39 might not appear to be worth that money, in-depth statistics show that he has been hurt by bad luck in his big league career. Niese throws four pitches consistently including a four -seam fastball (40% vs. RHB, 38% vs. LHB), a two-seam fastball (17% vs. RHB, 16% vs. LHB), a cutter (15.2% vs. RHB, 23.3% vs. LHB) and a curveball (23% vs. RHB, 22% vs. LHB). Niese generates 24% whiffs on his breaking ball against right-handed batters, and a whopping 33% against left-handed batters, making it his most effective strikeout pitch. His velocity typically sits in the low 90’s, but he maintains strong control. In 0-2 counts, he surprisingly uses his four-seam fastball more than 50% of the time, but he mixes his pitches better in other twostrike counts. He has started eight career games against Atlanta, in which he has accrued a 3.55 ERA, 1.599 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 45.2 innings pitched.

Frank Francisco

50.2

39

24.3

2.94

0.40

0.5

3.36

Four-seam — 72% (94.77); Slider — 1% (84.63); Curveball — 10% (79.46); Splitter — 17% (86.25)

Compiled by Kevin Orris @ www.CapitolAvenueClub.com

HITTING FORECAST
BA-LHP C — Josh Thole (L) 1B — Ike Davis (L) 2B — Daniel Murphy (L) SS — Ruben Tejada 3B — David Wright LF — Jason Bay CF — Andres Torres (S) RF — Lucas Duda (L) Starter Average 0.167 0.163 0.299 0.266 0.256 0.300 0.170 0.274 0.236 BA-RHP 0.280 0.372 0.326 0.289 0.254 0.228 0.229 0.297 0.284 OBP-LHP 0.302 0.260 0.319 0.375 0.396 0.418 0.316 0.328 0.339 OBP-RHP 0.351 0.444 0.374 0.355 0.330 0.297 0.312 0.380 0.355

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
April 5, 7-8 @ Citi Field
SLG-LHP .022 0.233 0.437 0.329 0.410 0.500 0.234 0.387 0.344 SLG-RHP 0.359 0.698 0.451 0.337 0.431 0.332 0.346 0.506 0.432 wOBA 0.303 0.391 0.350 0.315 0.342 0.315 0.296 0.368 0.335 DRS -5 +2 -2 -2 -7 -1 +3 -8 -4.166

C - Josh Thole - Thole is a contact hitter that doesn’t make hard contact often.
He has a good eye, walking in around 10% of his plate appearances. What power he does have tends to come on balls down and in. He is vulnerable to high strikes. A pitcher with a good 4-seam fastball should be able to overpower him up in the zone.

3B - David Wright - Classic middle in lowball hitter. Takes low and away for
strikes and swings and misses or pops up weakly on high power fastballs. But will absolutely crush anything middle down and middle in.

LF - Jason Bay - Very patient hitter who really likes to drive pitches up in the
zone. He will take pitches low and away and low and in, so get ahead in the count with those and try to induce weak groundball contact on a pitch low in the zone.

1B - Ike Davis - Like most power lefties, Ike Davis is vulnerable up and in and
low and away, but he absolutely crushes mistakes. As long as you can hit your spots you can get him out, but do not miss a pitch to him.

CF - Andres Torres - Has some gap power if a right hander makes a mistake
down the middle. Not very patient and swings and misses or grounds out weakly quite a bit.

2B - Daniel Murphy - Danny doesn’t like the ball low and away, so if you can
keep the ball there you will be fine. He crushes up and in.

RF - Lucas Duda - Classic mistake hitter with power. Hit your spots and he will
struggle, but will make you pay for any mistakes over the middle of the plate. Defensively the Mets are fairly poor overall, with only Torres and Ike Davis as above average defenders. None of them are terrible though, with the possible exception of Daniel Murphy, who managed to cost his team 2 runs at 2B last year, despite only playing the position for 24 games, giving a prorated number of around -16 DRS.

SS - Ruben Tejada - Good eye and good contact skills, but little in the way of
power. Doesn’t really have hot or cold zones in the strike zone. Will occasionally chase up and in fastballs, but is adept at fouling them off.

Compiled by Franklin Rabon @ www.CapitolAvenueClub.com

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