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Projected 10 year period

Specialized Facility Output


Operating Expenses
Depreciation Over 15 Years
Total Annual Cost
Cost Per Kilogram

1996
10,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$930

Flexible Facility Output


Operating Expenses
Depreciation Over 15 Years
Total Annual Cost
Cost Per Kilogram

1996
14,625
$9,480,000
$10,000,000
$19,480,000
$1,332

1997
11,200
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$830

1998
12,750
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$729

1999
13,850
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$671

1997
1998
14,625
14,625
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$10,000,000 $10,000,000
$19,480,000 $19,480,000
$1,332
$1,332

1999
14,625
$9,480,000
$10,000,000
$19,480,000
$1,332

Projected 15 Year Period ("Sales tapering after 10th year")


1996
1997
Specialized Facility Output
10,000
11,200
Operating Expenses
$6,800,000
$6,800,000
Depreciation Over 15 Years
$2,500,000
$2,500,000
Total Annual Cost
$9,300,000
$9,300,000
Cost Per Kilogram
$930
$830

Flexible Facility Output


Operating Expenses
Depreciation Over 15 Years
Total Annual Cost
Cost Per Kilogram

1996
14,625
$9,480,000
$10,000,000
$19,480,000
$1,332

1998
12,750
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$729

1999
13,850
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$671

1997
1998
14,625
14,625
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$10,000,000 $10,000,000
$19,480,000 $19,480,000
$1,332
$1,332

1999
14,625
$9,480,000
$10,000,000
$19,480,000
$1,332

2000
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2004
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2005
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
14,625
14,625
14,625
14,625
14,625
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000
$19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332

2005
14,625
$9,480,000
$10,000,000
$19,480,000
$1,332

2000
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2001
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2001
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2002
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2002
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2003
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2003
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2004
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2005
21,000
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$443

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
14,625
14,625
14,625
14,625
14,625
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000
$19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332

2005
14,625
$9,480,000
$10,000,000
$19,480,000
$1,332

Total 10 Yr Period
173,800
$68,000,000
$25,000,000
$93,000,000
$535.10

476923076.9

Total 10 Yr Period
146,250
$94,800,000
$100,000,000
$194,800,000
$1,331.97

2006
15,750
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$590

2007
11,813
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$787

2008
8,859
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$1,050

2009
6,645
$6,800,000
$2,500,000
$9,300,000
$1,400

2010 Total 15 Yr Period


4,983
221,850
$6,800,000
$102,000,000
$2,500,000
$37,500,000
$9,300,000
$139,500,000
$1,866
$628.80

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 Total 15 Yr Period
14,625
14,625
14,625
14,625
14,625
219,375
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$9,480,000
$142,200,000
$10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000 $10,000,000
$150,000,000
$19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000 $19,480,000
$292,200,000
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,332
$1,331.97

15 Yr Period

15 Yr Period

Currently Annual Facility Cost


Number of facilities
Number of flexible facilities
Number of specialized facilities
Total Product Produced in kg
Total Capacity in kg
Estimated Excess Capacity in kg
Estimated Loss Due to Facility Retrofitting
Estimated Revenue Loss Due to Delays
Estimated Additional Revenue for +1 year sales
Total Operating Expense
Total Depreciation Expense
Total Expense
Total Expense per kg

8
0
8
139,040 Calculated using average of estim
192,000
52,960
$29,686,154
Calculated using est for loss canc
$11,986,301.37 Guess? 25% chance of 100 days o
$0.00
$54,400,000
$20,000,000
$116,072,455
$834.81

Annual Facility Cost Next Year Building Flexible Facility


Number of facilities
Number of flexible facilities
Number of specialized facilities
Total Product Produced in kg
Total Capacity in kg
Estimated Excess Capacity in kg
Estimated Loss Due to Facility Retrofitting
Estimated Revenue Loss Due to Delays
Estimated Additional Revenue for +1 year sales
Total Operating Expense
Total Depreciation Expense
Total Expense
Total Expense per kg

9
1
8
156,420 Calculated using average of estim
206,625
50,205
$0 Calculated using est for loss canc
$0.00 Guess? 100 days of not selling on
$0.00
$63,880,000
$32,500,000
$96,380,000
$616.16

Annual Facility Cost Next Year Building Specialized Facility


Number of facilities
Number of flexible facilities
Number of specialized facilities

9
0
9

Total Product Produced in kg


Total Capacity in kg
Estimated Excess Capacity in kg
Estimated Loss Due to Facility Retrofitting
Estimated Revenue Loss Due to Delays
Estimated Additional Revenue for +1 year sales
Total Operating Expense
Total Depreciation Expense
Total Expense
Total Expense per kg

156,420
216,000
59,580
$29,686,154
$29,686,153.85
$0.00
$61,200,000
$22,500,000
$143,072,308
$914.67

alculated using average of estimated output of example facility

alculated using est for loss canc prod sheet


uess? 25% chance of 100 days of not selling one product every year

alculated using average of estimated output of example facility

alculated using est for loss canc prod sheet


uess? 100 days of not selling one product every year

24 new active ingredient in next ten years


produce an additional 2.4 active ingredients each year
24 ingredients introduced in human trials each year as one in ten do not market
21.6 will never make it to market
3.085714286 are cut every year in 7 year trial
19.44 are cut before expenses are paid
2.16 products are designed for
1.625 average number of products per facility
1.329230769 number of facilities planned never built
0.443076923 number of facilities cut every year
$4,947,692 cost to cut in first year
$9,895,385 cost to cut in second year
$14,843,077 cost to cut in third year
$29,686,154 total cost each year in retrofitting

Year 0
Number of Specialized Facilities
Number of Flexible Facilities
Total Product Produced in kg
Estimated Excess

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10