PITCHING FORECAST

J.A. Happ (L) — April 9 vs. Brandon Beachy

Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
April 9-11 @ Minute Maid Park

Bullpen

Happ might have some of the most boring stuff of any pitcher the Braves will Pitcher IP PTN% OPS vs. OPS vs. K% K/BB WPA fWAR xFIP face this season. Last year, Happ the a fastball more than 67% of the time, RHH LHH 10th among Major League pitchers with 150+ innings pitched in 2011. His Brandon Lyon ^ 78.0 54 0.748 0.771 16.2 1.20 2.81 1.0 4.47 low-90’s velocity isn’t helping much either. BrooksBaseball.net says he Four-seam — 27% (92.99); Sinker — 26% (92.63); Cutter 25% (90.22); Curveball 19% (77.15) throws five pitches: four-seam, sinker, cutter, curveball and changeup ranging form 76-90 MPH. His Changeup generates his best Fernando Abad (L) 19.2 45 0.996 0.608 15.2 1.67 -0.07 -0.6 5.07 whiff percentage, but it still only comes in at 21.02%. Needless to say, he Four-seam — 51% (90.94); Curveball — 24% (77.31); Changeup — 19% (75.33) isn’t a strikeout pitcher. Since Happ came up with the Phillies, he has started six career games against the Braves. In those six starts, he has posted a Rhiner Cruz Only Minor League Data Available 2.09 ERA with 24 strikeouts and 16 walks in 38.2 innings pitched.

Kyle Weiland — April 10 vs. Tommy Hanson

Four-seam — 77% (94.98); Slider 21% (82.14); Changeup 3% (90.22)

Wesley Wright (L) ^

33.0

27

0.904

0.665

19.6

2.23

0.20

-0.1

4.14

Unfortunately Weiland has only thrown 24.2 Major League innings prior to Four-seam — 48% (91.66); Sinker — 16% (90.84); Slider — 20% (84.23); his first start of the 2012 season. In his limited time with Boston last Curveball— 13% (78.65); Changeup — 3% (84.19) season, we learned that he throws a four-seam fastball (93.06 averFernando Rodriguez 52.1 62 0.764 0.823 24.7 1.90 -0.10 -0.2 age MPH), sinker (93.00), cutter (86.79), curveball (79.51) and changeup (84.79). His sinker has been whiffed at just 2.63% in the big Four-seam — 61% (93.03); Curveball — 27% (78.24); Changeup — 6% (85.98) leagues, whereas his four-seam, cutter and change have generated 26.56%, David Carpenter 27.2 57 0.889 0.697 23.2 2.23 -0.85 -0.1 31.67% and 27.27% rates, respectively. Expect the Braves to be rather paFour-seam — 78% (94.62); Slider — 21% (85.53); Changeup — 2% (85.56) tient with him in his first National League start.

4.11

4.04

Wandy Rodriguez — April 11 vs. Randall Delgado
Though it hasn’t been made official yet, Rodriguez appears set to start for Houston in Wednesday’s matinee. In his first start on April 6, he allowed six hits, two walks and struck out two batters over 6.1 innings of work against Colorado. According to BrooksBaseball.net, he offers up a four-seam fastball 47% of the time, yet JoeLefkowitz.com considers him to throw both a four-seam and two-seam fastball for a combined 47% of the time. Regardless, he mixes in a sinker (89.73 average MPH), curveball (76.80) and changeup (84.32). His curveball and changeup have both produced whiff rates in excess of 23% over his career. He consistently strikes out more than 20% of batters faced and walks between 7-8%. In 10 career starts against Atlanta, Rodriguez has a 3.25 ERA with 57 strikeouts and 22 walks in 61 innings pitched.

Wilton Lopez

71.0

64

0.660

0.808

18.8

3.11

-0.73

0.5

3.36

Four-seam — 25% (93.28); Sinker — 50% (92.2); Slider — 8% (83.71); Changeup — 17% (84.94)

Brett Myers

216

56

0.773

0.740

17.5

2.81

-1.28

1.5

3.75

Four-seam — 28% (90.51); Sinker — 21% (89.13); Slider — 21% (84.15); Curveball — 23% (77.31); Changeup — 8% (83.35)

Compiled by Kevin Orris @ www.CapitolAvenueClub.com

HITTING FORECAST
BA-LHP C — Jason Castro * 1B — Carlos Lee 2B — Jose Altuve SS — Marwin Gonzalez ** 3B — Chris Johnson LF — J.D. Martinez CF — Jordan Schafer RF — Brian Bogusevic Starter Average 0.070 0.348 0.321 0.260 0.260 0.360 0.213 0.154 0.248 BA-RHP 0.234 0.253 0.262 0.260 0.248 0.247 0.251 0.298 0.257 0.130 0.413 0.351 0.300 0.291 0.439 0.280 0.267 0.308 0.327 0.319 0.279 0.300 0.291 0.278 0.319 0.355 0.308

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
April 9-11 @ Minute Maid Park
SLG-RHP 0.342 0.396 0.339 0.351 0.390 0.342 0.326 0.483 0.371 wOBA-LHP 0.112 0.432 0.335 0.286 0.275 0.471 0.255 0.213 0.297 wOBA-RHP 0.299 0.311 0.272 0.286 0.296 0.272 0.291 0.362 0.298 DRS 4 12 6 4 -20 6 -34 35 1.625 0.093 0.615 0.415 0.351 0.344 0.680 0.280 0.154 0.366

OBP-LHP OBP-RHP SLG-LHP

^ DRS is taken using the most recent year’s number for that player, for the position he is currently playing, and then scaled to a 162 game value. For some players that only played a small number of games at a given position the previous year, this may provide extreme numbers. *Castro did not play in 2011, these are 2010 numbers ** These are ZiPS projections for Marwin Gonzelez, as this is his first MLB season, his DRS is estimated based on scouting reports.

C - Jason Castro - Missed all of last year due to injury, a defense first
catcher with some skill against RHP, but very little against LHP.

3B - Chris Johnson - The very definition of a replacement level player in
all respects. If that.

1B - Carlos Lee - Perhaps the only name most casual fans will recognize in LF - J.D. Martinez - Despite his average showing in DRS in limited duty
the entire lineup. Still murders LHP. A classic mistake hitter. Has been a surprisingly good defensive First Baseman since transitioning there. there, he’s a pretty bad defensive left fielder. Really has a tough time with MLB quality righties, but mashes lefties. Fairly slow already.

2B - Jose Altuve - Good defensive second baseman who can handle the
bat against LHP, but struggles with RHP.

CF - Jordan Schafer - Lost some weight, which many believe will allow

him to be an average defensive center fielder, after being a pretty bad one last year. Still struggles with breaking pitches and is still the definition of a replaceSS - Marwin Gonzalez - Good defensive SS getting his first chance at the ment level player. majors. Bat is not ready for MLB pitching from all accounts, but glove is good RF - Brian Bogusevic - A converted pitcher, Bogusevic is an elite deenough to make up for it. fender based on arm strength and good range. Lacks very much power though, and hasn’t faced lefties very much. Reminds me a lot of Rick Ankiel, but with less power.

Compiled by Franklin Rabon @ www.CapitolAvenueClub.com

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