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Winter 2007

**Chapter 7 Present Worth Analysis
**

Describing Project Cash Flows Initial Project Screening Method Present Worth Analysis

**Bank Loan vs. Investment Project
**

Bank Loan

Loan Bank Repayment Customer

Investment Project

Investment Company Return Project

S.V. Atre

1

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

**Describing Project Cash Flows
**

Year (n) Cash Inflows (Benefits) Cash Outflows (Costs) $650,000 53,000 53,000 … 53,000 Net Cash Flows

0 1 2 … 8

0 215,500 215,500 … 215,500

-$650,000 162,500 162,500 … 162,500

**Example Payback Period
**

N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cash Flow -$105,000+$20,000 $35,000 $45,000 $50,000 $50,000 $45,000 $35,000 Cum. Flow -$85,000 -$50,000 -$5,000 $45,000 $95,000 $140,000 $175,000

Payback period should occurs somewhere between N = 2 and N = 3.

S.V. Atre

2

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

$45,000 $35,000 Annual cash flow $25,000 $15,000 0 1 2 Years 3 4

$45,000 $35,000

5

6

$85,000 Cumulative cash flow ($) 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 -50,000 -100,000 0 1 2 3 Years (n) 4 5 6 3.2 years Payback period

Payback Period

Principle: How fast can I recover my initial investment? Method: Based on cumulative cash flow (or accounting profit) Screening Guideline: If the payback period is less than or equal to some specified payback period, the project would be considered for further analysis. Weakness: Does not consider the time value of money

S.V. Atre

3

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

**Discounted Payback Period Calculation
**

Period 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cash Flow -$85,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 45,000 35,000 Cost of Funds (15%)* 0 -$85,000(0.15)= -$12,750 -$82,750(0.15)= -12,413 -$70,163(0.15)= -10,524 -$45,687(0.15)=-6,853 -$7,540(0.15)= -1,131 $36,329(0.15)= 5,449 Cumulative Cash Flow -$85,000 -82,750 -70,163 -45,687 -7,540 36,329 76,778

Payback period has been increased by a year !

**Net Present Worth Measure
**

Principle: Compute the equivalent net surplus at n = 0 for a given interest rate of i. Decision Rule: Accept the project if net surplus > 0 Inflow 0 Outflow

PW(i)inflow

1 2 3 4 5 Net surplus 0

PW(i) > 0 PW(i)outflow

Gives a measure of profitability of the project

S.V. Atre

4

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

**Example - Tiger Machine Tool Company
**

inflow

$24,400

0 1

$27,340

2 i = 15% 3

$55,760

outflow

$75,000

P W (15% ) inflow = $24 ,400 ( P / F ,15% ,1) + $27 , 340 ( P / F ,15% ,2 ) + $55,760 ( P / F ,15% ,3 ) = $78,553 P W (15% ) outflow = $75,000 P W (15% ) = $78,553 − $75, 000 = $3,553 > 0 , A ccept

what if i = 0%? what if i = 20%?

**Present Worth Amounts at Varying Interest Rates
**

i (%) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 17.45* 18

*Break even interest rate

PW(i) $32,500 27,743 23,309 19,169 15,296 11,670 8,270 5,077 2,076 0 -751

i(%) 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40

PW(i) -$3,412 -5,924 -8,296 -10,539 -12,662 -14,673 -16,580 -18,360 -20,110 -21,745 -23,302

S.V. Atre

5

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

**Present Worth Profile
**

40 30 20 PW (i) ($ thousands) 10 $3553 0 -10 -20 -30 0 5 10 15 20 i 25 30 35 40 17.45% Break even interest rate (or rate of return)

Accept

Reject

i = Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR)

**Present Worth Analysis
**

Net Present Worth of initial and future cash flows can be used to select among alternative projects. It is important to understand what Net Present Worth means, especially when the cash flows include both revenue and expenses.

S.V. Atre

6

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

Terminology

Salvage Value – the amount of money you can expect to receive by selling an asset when you are done with it. What value does it have when you are done with it? MARR – Minimum Attractive Rate of Return – I expect or need this return in order to be willing to invest my money.

Example Problem

Project A costs $10,000 and will last for 10 years. Annual, end of the year revenues will be $3,000, and expenses will be $1,000. There is no salvage value. Project B costs $10,000 and will also last for 10 years. Annual revenues will be $3,000 with annual expenses of $1,500. Salvage value is $5,000. Conduct an economic analysis to select the preferred project using a MARR of 10% per year, compounded annually.

S.V. Atre

7

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

Example Problem

Project A costs $10,000 and will last for 10 years. Annual, end of the year revenues will be $3,000, and expenses will be $1,000. There is no salvage value.

DIAGRAM: GIVEN: LIFETIME = 10 YRS NPWA ? MARR = 10%/YR, CPD ANNUALLY FIRST COST = $10,000 ANNUAL REVENUES = $3 000/YR 0 1 2 3 ANNUAL COSTS = $1,000/YR SALVAGE VALUE = $0 $10,000 FIND NPWA: NET ANNUAL = ANNUAL REVENUES – ANNUAL COSTS = $3,000/YR – $1,000/YR = $2,000/YR NPWA = A(P|A,i,N) – 1ST COST = $2,000(P|A,10%,10) – $10,000 = $2,000(6.1446) – $10,000 = $2,289

$3,000 4 10 $1,000

Example Problem

Project B costs $10,000 and will also last for 10 years. Annual revenues will be $3,000 with annual expenses of $1,500. Salvage value is $5,000.

DIAGRAM: GIVEN: LIFETIME = 10 YRS NPWB ? $5,000 MARR = 10%/YR, CPD ANNUALLY $3,000 FIRST COST = $10,000 ANNUAL REVENUES = $3,000/YR 10 0 1 2 3 4 ANNUAL COSTS = $1,500/YR $1,500 SALVAGE VALUE = $5,000 $10,000 FIND NPWB: NET ANNUAL = ANNUAL REVENUES – ANNUAL COSTS = $3,000/YR – $1,500/YR = $1,500/YR NPWB = A(P|A,i,N) + SALVAGE(P|F,i,N) – 1ST COST = $1,500(P|A,10%,10) + $5,000(P|F,10%,10) – $10,000 = $1,500(6.1446) + $5,000(0.3855) – $10,000 = $1,144 ►PREFER A

S.V. Atre

8

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

**What does this mean?
**

NPWA = $2,289 NPWB = $1,144 We prefer project A over project B. Does NOT mean $2289 profit! Concept: We favor Project A by $2,289 over taking $10,000 and putting it in an account earning 10%.

**In other words…
**

With expenses and revenues known, select the largest NPW > 0 ∴ Select Project A What does this mean? At i = 10%, $2,000 at the end of each of the next 10 years is worth, today, $2,289 more than the initial cost of $10,000.

S.V. Atre

9

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

Further…

You would be willing to pay as much as $10,000 + $2,289 = $12,289 for the project. At that price and at i = 10%, you are indifferent between: 1. Investing $12,289 for 10 years at i = 10%. 2. Obtaining $2000 at the end of each of the next 10 years (and reinvesting each receipt at 10%).

Illustrating…

F10 = ($10,000 + $2,289) (F | P, 10%, 10) = ($10,000 + $2,289) (2.594) = $31,875 F10 = $2000 (F | A, 10%, 10) = $2000 (15.937) = $31,875

S.V. Atre

10

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

Thus…

The project only costs $10 000, but at i = 10% it is equivalent to investing $10 000 + 2 289 for 10 years. Since PW > 0, you are actually earning more than 10% on investment.

Problem 1

A company is considering the purchase of a new piece of testing equipment that is expected to produce $8,000 additional income during the first year of operation. This amount will decrease by $500 per year for each subsequent year of ownership. The equipment costs $20,000 and will have an estimated salvage value of $3,000 after 8 years of use. For a MARR of 15% compounded annually, determine the net present worth of this investment.

S.V. Atre

11

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

Problem 1

GIVEN: 1ST COST = $20,000 ANNUAL COST: $500/YR (LINEAR GRADIENT) STARTING AT YR 2 ANNUAL REVENUE: $8,000 SALVAGE VALUE: $3,000 LIFE TIME: 8 YEARS MARR = 15%/YR, CPD ANNUALLY FIND: NPW DIAGRAM: $8,000 0 1 2 3 8 $3,000 NPW = - $20,000 - $500(P|G,15%,8) + $8,000(P|A,15%,8) + $3,000(P|F,15%,8) = - $20,000 - $500(12.4807) + $8,000(4.4873) + $3,000(0.3269) = - $20,000 - $6,240 + $35,898 + $981 NPW = $10,639 $3,500

$500 $1,000 $20,000

Worth investing in !

**(Net) Present Worth Analysis
**

When comparing projects, it is necessary to compare alternatives with the same project life (i.e., over the same period of time).

S.V. Atre

12

ENGR 390 Lecture 11: Present Worth Analysis

Winter 2007

**Present Worth Analysis
**

When applied correctly, NPW can be used to select among various alternative projects. • The larger the NPW the better. • Requires establishing MARR. • MARR is used as the (i) in the equations.

Plotting NPW vs. i

10 000

NPW ($) IRR 2 289

0

10%

15.1% i (%)

Why does NPW decrease as i increases?

S.V. Atre

13

Engineering Economics 390. Courtesy of Atre, Sundar V Associate Professor, Oregon State University.

Engineering Economics 390. Courtesy of Atre, Sundar V Associate Professor, Oregon State University.

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