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**thirteen Capital Budgeting
**

case study OVERVIEW

CS13.1 CS13.2 CS13.3 CS13.4 CS13.5 CS13.6 CS13.7 Application Overview and Model Development Worksheets User Interface Procedures Re-solve Options Summary Extensions

these values are updated and placed on a simulation calculation worksheet that contains several formulas. we seek to solve this problem using simulation. the formula is: a≤m≤b m−a ⎛ (b − a )(m − a ) p ⎞ F −1 ( p ) = a + ⎜ ⎟ . and the run results are recorded.1 Application Overview and Model Development In this application. MostLikely) 'triangular distribution function Dim p As Double p = Rnd() If p < (MostLikely . Worst. and most likely values and outputs a random number that is found from this triangular distribution for a given probability.MostLikely) * (1 .Worst) * (Best .1.1 Model Definition and Assumptions This application has both deterministic and stochastic input. The stochastic input includes the sales volume.Worst) Then Triang = Abs(Best .Worst) / (Best .Worst) / (Best .Worst) Then Triang = Abs(Worst + ((Best .CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 2 CS13. b. if b−a 2 ⎝ ⎠ The Triang function procedure takes as input the best case. For runs = 1 To NumRuns For i = 1 To NumProd 'calculate unknown values using Triang function and put in table 'PRODUCT COST . m. For this application. worst case. Function Triang(Best. CS13. a. and a given probability. A triangular random variable analyzes the values that may occur between the best case and worst case values. and most likely values they have. Since these values are unknown. This problem is typically modeled as an integerprogramming problem in which binary variables determine which products to invest in and which not to invest in. and most likely value. worst case. we prompt the user for the best case. worst case. for a best case. For each run of the simulation. and the time horizon. we calculate the expected total profit and NPV for several products with given input values.((Best . p. However. We then summarize which product can be expected to perform the best and suggest that the user invest in it. if 0 ≤ p ≤ 2 b−a ⎝ ⎠ m−a ⎛ (b − a)(b − m)(1 − p ) ⎞ ≤ p ≤1 F −1 ( p ) = b − ⎜ ⎟ . the user can consider which of several possible future products would be most beneficial to invest in. The formulas are therefore updated with these new values. We therefore model the inverse triangular distribution function.Worst) * p) / 2) Else If p > (MostLikely . in this application. the product development cost.p)) / 2) End If End Function We use this function to create values for this stochastic input during the simulation runs. we want to generate a random number from the triangular distribution for a given probability of this input.Worst) * (MostLikely . In each run.

Offset(6. Range(“Prod” & i & “Start”) Product Name Tax Rate Discount Rate Labor Cost Variable Cost Selling Price Sales Volume Product Development Cost Depreciation Before tax profit After tax profit Cash flow NPV Range(“Prod” & i & “Time”)… Prod.Value = _ Application. Time(i.Value = Range("Prod" & i & "NPV"). Using these values as well as the stochastic values calculated for each run. and the NPV. 2). the before tax profit.Sum(Range(Range("Prod" & i & "NPV"). 3)) Range(Range("Prod" & i & "NPV"). 2 * i . _Range("Prod" & i & "NPV"). 3)) 'TIME HORIZON NumYears = Triang(Time(i. the labor cost. Sales(i.Value = Triang (Sales(i.Offset(6. Time(i. NumYears))) Next i Next The simulation calculations seek to determine the total profit and net present value (NPV) of each product given its input values. 2 * i .Offset(runs + 1. the after tax profit. Devel.Offset(-2. 2). the variable cost. 1). Cost / 5 Labor Cost + Selling Price * Sales Vol – Variable Cost * Sales Vol – Depreciation ((1-Tax Rate) * Before Tax Profit Range(“Prod1Time”) … After Tax Profit + Depreciation 0 (from input sheet) (from input sheet) (from input sheet) (from input sheet) (from input sheet) 1… (to 10) (from Triang function) Please refer to Practical Management Science by Winston and Albright as well as Introduction to Probability Models by Winston for more details.Offset(0. 3)) Next Range(Range("Prod" & i & "Start"). ProdCost(i.1). _ Range("Prod" & i & "Start"). NumYears)). 1). year + 1). Sales(i. 1). the application calculates the depreciation.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 3 Range("Prod" & i & "Start"). the NPV Excel function calculates the NPV. Cost Range(“Prod” & i & “NPV”) (NPVfunction using Discount Rate and Time Horizon) (from Triang function) Prod. Range("Prod" & i & "NPV") _ . Devel.1). Offset(6.Offset(7.Offset(-1. the cash flow. ProdCost(i.Offset(runs + 1. the discount rate.Name = "Prod" & i & "Time" 'SALES VOLUMES For year = 1 To NumYears Range("Prod" & i & "Start"). The deterministic input values include the tax rate. 1).Offset(-2.ClearContents 'record NPV and profit to SimDetails Range("DetailsStart").Value = Triang(ProdCost(i.Offset(-1. NumYears + 2). 1). The simple formulas for these calculations appear in the table below. and the selling price. 0). 11)). .WorksheetFunction. 2).Value Range("DetailsStart"). 1).

1.3 Output This application has two types of output: output per product and overall. The deterministic input is: Tax rate Discount rate Labor cost Variable cost Selling price Desired NPV The stochastic input for the application is: Sales volume (best. the simulation details sheet. the tax rate.2 Worksheets This application requires five worksheets: the welcome sheet.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 4 CS13. worst. (See Figure CS13. The input sheet stores the input values for each product entered by the user.2 Input This application requires two types of input: deterministic and stochastic. worst. the description of the application. the selling price. the discount rate. and most likely) Product development cost (best. worst. worst. which we will describe in the next section. This sheet stores the deterministic values for the labor cost. output. . and the “Start” button. and time horizon.) These input values are recorded from a user form. production development cost.1. or comparative.) The “Start” button on the welcome sheet prompts the user for the input values and then displays the input sheet.1. and most likely values for the sales volume. and the desired NPV.2. the variable cost. and the results sheet. (See Figure CS13. the simulation calculations sheet. The output per product is: Depreciation Before tax profit After tax profit Cash flow Actual NPV The overall output is: Product with best average NPV Product with best average total profit CS13. and most likely) Time horizon (best. and most likely) CS13. The stochastic input is recorded by best. the input sheet. The welcome sheet contains the title.

2 (a) In the simulation calculations sheet. before tax profit. which are stored on the results sheet. (See Figure CS13. As these values are updated for each run of the simulation. cash flow. and average NPV and profit values. The stochastic input values are updated for each run of the simulation using the triangular distribution function with the best. Figure CS13.1 The welcome sheet. (See Figure CS13.3.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 5 Figure CS13.4. and NPV. the formula results are also updated and recorded on the simulation details sheet. the application calculates the simulation formulas to determine each product’s total profit and NPV.) The application employs these values to determine each product’s minimum. The simulation details sheet records the NPV and total profit values for each product for each run of the simulation. maximum. worst. and most likely parameters provided by the user. . after tax profit.) The deterministic input values are referenced from this sheet as input for the formulas for depreciation.

Figure CS13. .2 (b) Figure CS13.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 6 Figure CS13.2 The input sheet.3 The simulation calculations sheet.

The results sheet displays each product’s minimum. The comparative.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 7 Figure CS13. Figure CS13. . (See Figure CS13. maximum.) It also uses the simulation details sheet values to calculate the probability that the NPV will be greater than or equal to the desired NPV provided by the user. output shows which product has the largest average NPV and profit values.4 The simulation details sheet. and average NPV and profit values in a table.5. or overall.5 The results sheet.

and the product with the best overall NPV and profit values. Then. (See Figure CS13. we include navigational buttons.) This form prompts the user for the deterministic and stochastic input. the user views an input form for each product he or she is comparing. maximum. Calculates the simulation formulas to find the NPV and profit values for each product.) Figure CS13. and a user form. input boxes. the probability that the NPV is greater than or equal to the desired NPV for each product. Text boxes are used for all the data. Simulation calculations sheet Simulation details sheet Results sheet CS13.8. each set of input values is grouped into a respective frame. the user first views two input boxes. (See Figure CS13. and the stochastic input text boxes are arranged in a tabular format since each requires a best.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 8 Welcome sheet Input sheet Summary Contains the application description and the “Start” button. Figure CS13. (See Figure CS13. and most likely value.7 The input box for the number of runs.6 The input box for the number of products. Stores the deterministic and stochastic input values for each product.6. Records the NPV and profit values calculated for each product for each run of the simulation. Shows the minimum. The first prompts the user for the number of products to compare. and average NPV and profit values for each product. Formulas and results are updated for new stochastic values for each run of the simulation.3 User Interface For this application’s user interface. From the “Start” button on the welcome sheet.) The second input box then prompts the user for the number of simulation runs.7. worst. .

8 The input form. the input values have already been entered and recorded for the first two products on the input sheet. the product number label is updated for each product shown. simulation calculations. including the product name. For example. As the user enters the input values for each product. and details sheets.9. and “End” on all the sheets.” “View Output Details. shown for each product. therefore. the values are recorded on the input sheet. “Return to Input.” and “View Sim Calc” on the results sheet. “Start” on the welcome sheet. Default values are provided for all the input. For the deterministic and stochastic input values. in Figure CS13. “Go Back” on the input. Input form Navigational buttons Functional buttons . This same form is shown to the user for each product.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 9 Figure CS13. which appears in the background. The input form now prompts the user for the input values of the third product. Input boxes Summary For the number of products and the number of runs. they are recorded to the input sheet. “Start Simulation” on the input sheet and “Re-solve” on the results sheet.

) Notice that the variable i used in the loop in the Main procedure to show the input form is used in the input form procedures to determine on which row on the input sheet values will be recorded.4 Procedures We will now outline the procedures for this application beginning with the variable declarations and initial sub procedures. It calls the ClearPrev procedure to clear previous values and tables from all the sheets.) The Main procedure is called from the “Start” button. The input form procedures record all of the input values on the input sheet. (See Figure CS13.11. (See Figure CS13. Once the input sheet appears.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 10 Figure CS13. This variable also indexes the arrays to store the stochastic input parameters. This code also performs some error checking to ensure that the value for the time horizon worst case input is less than or equal to 10.9 The input form appears in front of the input sheet. . The product number label on the form is updated in each loop along with the default value of the product name. The Main procedure ends by calling the FormatSheets and RunSim procedures.10. It then prompts the user with the two input boxes for the number of products and the number of runs for the simulation. CS13. Notice that the error checking code is used for both of these input boxes. ClearPrev then uses the number of products to redimension some arrays and takes the user to the input sheet. the Main procedure performs a loop to display the input form for each product.

. and sales volume values are updated with the triangular distribution function. and the resulting NPV and profit values are recorded on the simulation details sheet. The RunSim procedure performs the simulation calculations.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 11 Figure CS13.) For each simulation run. the RunSim procedure calls the CreateResults procedure.12. The formulas on the simulation calculation sheet are then updated. each product’s production development cost.10 The variable declarations and the Main procedure. When all of the runs are complete. (See Figure CS13. time horizon.

13.1. worst case.12. with these range names.11 The procedures for the input form. (See Figure CS13. and average NPV and profit values for each product. time horizon. It next loops over all of the average NPV and profit values to find the product with the best NPV and the product with the best profit. (See Figure CS13.) The CreateResults procedure displays the results on the results sheet. . and sales volume. maximum. it finds the minimum. and most likely case values as parameters.1 for details about the triangular distribution function. Then.) First.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 12 Figure CS13. (Refer to Section CS16. it first creates some dynamic range names on the simulation details sheet. The Triang function procedure generates a possible value from the triangular distribution function using the best case.) These parameter values are passed to the Triang function procedure using the corresponding arrays for product development cost.

) It begins by creating tables for each product on the simulation . The FormatSheets procedure creates tables for each product on various sheets.12 The RunSim procedure and the Triang function procedure.14. (See Figure CS13.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 13 Figure CS13.

these names are used in the formulas for the simulation calculations. It also creates some dynamic range names on this sheet.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 14 calculations sheet. Finally. Figure CS13. Notice that for each product. . It then creates columns for storing the simulation results on the simulation details sheet and also updates some of its dynamic range names. it formats the results sheet by creating the tables for each product to store the results. FormatSheets then references the input values from the input sheet on these new tables on the simulation calculation sheet. tables are created by copying and pasting an initial table that is never cleared from the sheet.13 The CreateResults procedure.

14 The FormatSheets procedure.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 15 Figure CS13.15. The ClearPrev and navigational procedures are illustrated in Figure CS13. .

creates the dynamic range names. Performs the simulation calculations.” “View Output Details. Displays the results for each product on the results sheet. finds the product with the best NPV and profit values.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 16 Figure CS13. Main Summary Initializes the application and prompts the user with the input boxes and the input form.” and . record the stochastic input parameters to the input sheet and the arrays. updates the stochastic values by calling the Triang function procedure.” “View Sim Calc. Clears the previous values and tables from all the sheets. Record the deterministic input values to the input sheet. Uses the triangular distribution function to generate values for the stochastic input.15 ClearPrev and the navigational procedures. ClearPrev Input form procedures FormatSheets RunSim Triang function procedure CreateResults Navigational For the “End. Creates the tables for all the products on all the sheets.

both “Re-solve” and “Return to Input” lead the user to the re-solve options. Figure CS13. (See Figure CS13.17 The Re-solve procedure. simply returns the user to the input sheet where he or she can change any of the input values or stochastic input parameters.17. Figure CS13.16. he or she can click on the “Start Simulation” button to re-call the RunSim procedure and re-run the simulation.5 Re-solve Options The user can re-solve this application by pressing the “Re-solve” button on the results sheet or the “Start Simulation” button on the input sheet.18. Re-calls the RunSim procedure to re-run the simulation.CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 17 CS13.16 The buttons on the results sheet. “Start Simulation” re-solves the application. The “Re-solve” button (as well as the “Return to Input” button) on the results sheet calls the Re-solve procedure.) This procedure. “Re-solve” button on the results sheet Summary Returns the user to the input sheet where he or she can change the input values before resolving the problem. shown in Figure CS13. “Start Simulation” button on the input sheet .18 The buttons on the input sheet.) Figure CS13. (See Figure CS13. Once the user updates the input values.

and the results sheet. the simulation details sheet. the simulation calculations sheet. Several procedures in this application collect the input for the model and solve the model by running a simulation. we use navigational buttons. CS13. (Remember to also add to the ClearPrev procedure so that each histogram is deleted for the previous products. For this application’s user interface.6 Summary In this application. Add histograms to the results sheet that illustrate the frequency with which each product’s profit and NPV values were achieved.) Restructure this application to solve the capital budgeting problem with an integer programming model. the user can consider which of several possible future products would be most beneficial to invest in. This application requires five worksheets: the welcome sheet. and a user form.7 Extensions Add to the results sheet the product that has the highest probability of having a NPV greater than or equal to the desired NPV. The user can re-solve this application by pressing the “Re-solve” button on the results sheet or the “Start Simulation” button on the input sheet. Which procedures change and which can be retained? Which sheets change and which can be retained? .CASE STUDY 13 Capital Budgeting 18 CS13. input boxes. the input sheet.

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