ALBERTA PROVINCIAL ELECTION RACE TIGHTENS!

PRESS RELEASE – April 12, 2012
In last week’s tracking poll done soon after the controversy involving the resignation of a PC staffer, the Wildrose Alliance Party led the PCs by 17 points among decided voters. In this week’s poll, Wildrose has dropped back to a lead of 8 points about where their lead was back on March 26. If a provincial election was held today, the Wildrose Alliance Party would receive 42.8% of popular vote and the PC party would receive 34.4%. The narrowing of the lead for Wildrose, was a result of a decline in Wildrose support by 2.7 points, however, this change is within the margin of error. The main reason for the narrowing of the lead was because of the resurgence in support for the PC party by 6 points as support for the Liberals, NDP and the “other” party continued to slip. Regionally, Wildrose’s decline from last week came mostly from Edmonton where the PC Party surged in the poll as the Liberals declined. In Edmonton the PCs now have a significant 22 point lead over the Wildrose party. In Calgary and the Rest of Alberta (ROA) the Wildrose support was similar to a week ago with a lead of about 18 points over the PCs. If an election was held today, Wildrose would receive 49% of the votes in Calgary and the rest of Alberta and only 22% in Edmonton, where the PCs would get 44%. With regard to who would make the best premier, Danielle Smith (Wildrose) crept up again over the past week as Alison Redford remained about the same with Raj Sherman (Liberal), and Brian Mason continuing to slip. Among all voters, Smith has 32.1% support versus Redford’s 27.1%. Raj Sherman and Brian Mason (NDP) are well back with less than 8% each. The Wildrose party’s healthcare vision contributes to its strength, with 28.1% of all voters (decideds plus undecideds) agreeing that Wildrose has the right vision for healthcare in the province, compared to 17.8% for the PCs, 15.8% for the Liberals, and 6.8% for the NDP. Graphs are provided on the following pages. An executive report for the April 11, 2012 poll is available upon request by contacting Campaign Research at 613-482-0622 or by e-mail to gdunlop@campaignresearch.ca. This is the third in a series of weekly tracking polls that are being conducted and self-sponsored by Campaign Research during the 2012 Alberta Provincial Election campaign. Campaign Research is a full service marketing research agency. Our research design and analysis is conducted in accordance with Market Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) accepted practices of which Campaign Research Inc. is a corporate Gold Seal member. All research work is supervised by a Certified Market Research Professional (CMRP). Our third Alberta tracking poll was conducted on Wednesday, April 11, 2012. A random sample of households was drawn from the Alberta residential phone database. Of the 17,994 households dialed, 880 respondents 18 years of age and older completed a 5-question survey using interactive touch response (ITR) technology on their telephone keypads. The survey questions measured popular vote by party candidate (the “ballot question”), best premier, and education vision. A sample of this size has a margin of error of +/-3.2%, 19 times out of 20.

Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll (April 11)
The Ballot Question – “Thinking of provincial politics, if a provincial election was held today, which candidate would you vote for?” (Provincial party candidates listed)

N = 731 with margin of error +/- 3.6% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Which political party has the right vision for healthcare in this province? (Provincial parties listed by name)

N = 880 with margin of error +/- 3.2% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Thinking of the leaders of the various Alberta political parties who do you think would make the best premier of Alberta? (Provincial party leaders listed)

N = 886 with margin of error +/- 3.2% points 19 times out of 20

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Poll-related media inquiries should be directed to: Greg Dunlop, MBA, CMRP Principal, Campaign Research gdunlop@campaignresearch.ca

Non-poll general media enquiries should be directed to: Aaron Wudrick awudrick@campaignresearch.ca 613-482-0622

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