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Step 1:-At first we have to calculate the 4-quarter moving total by adding the total sale of the all four quarters respectively. At first we add the 4 quarter of 1st year and then leave the quarter 1 of the corresponding year and accept the next quarter i.e. the quarter 1 of the next year. This process is going on in the same pattern. For example:
Year Quat. Sales(Y) 1998 Q1 40 Q2 Q3 Q4 1999 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 25 110 15 108 30 109 38 107 26 105 13 80 28 76 4-QMT
For more see the solution page. Step2:-In this step we find the 4-quarter moving average by dividing the 4-quarter moving total by 4.For example:
110 108 109
27.5 27 27.25
and min SR in an year. SR and get the modified sum.25 27. and divide them by 2.125 0. After that we add all SR of a year by leaving the max.25 27 4-QCMA =(1 4-QMA+2nd 4-QMA)/2 Step4:-In this step specific seasonal index can be calculated . and min. For example: Sales(Y) 40 25 15 30 27. . After this we leave the 1st one and accept the next coming and the process is running in the same procedureFor example: 4-QMA.Step3:-The 4-quarter central moving average can be calculated by adding the two continuous 4-quarter moving avg. 4-QCMA 27.106 4-QCMA Specific Seasonal Index(SR) SR=Y/4-QCMA st Step5:-After that in this step we calculate the seasonal index. At first we select the max. At first we write all respective specific seasonal index in their correspondent quarters and years.This can be achieved by dividing the actual demand(Y) by 4-quarter central moving average.25 27 27.550 1.5 27.125 27.
Const.067 0. Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mod. Q1 1. Dividing the modified sum by total no.436 1.908 1.976 0.080601 Seasonal index(S) =Mod.962287 0.981 0.706 1.36286553 .556 2.662 1.057 0.98595 0.avg.483 1.97976986 27.we get the mod.550 1.. value.sum Mod. of quarter we add. mean X Adjacent Constant Step6:-We know that the actual demand Y=TCSR and then dividing the Y by Seasonal index(S).5481882 Deaseasionalized Demand(TCR) 28.548188 0.976 1. Mean 1.086 0. Seasonal Index(S) 0.463 1. Adju.9622872 0. mean with the adjacent constant.98595 Red value is maximum and blue value is minimum.429 Q2 Q3 Q4 0. For example: Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mod.562 1.39048889 25. At last we get the seasonal index by multiplying the respective mod.971 0.407 0.106 0..40892255 0.98595 1. and min. After that we calculate the adjuscent constant by dividing 4by the total sum of modified avg.054 0.429 0.Avg.192 1.952 0. The modified sum is achieved by neglecting the max.98595 1.556 1.451 2.096 Adju. we get the Deseasonalized demand (TCR).112 0.For example: Sales(Y) 40 25 15 Seasonal Index(S) 1.096 4.Const.98595 0.408923 0.858 1.
091596541 and the actual demand is St. To calculate a.97958069 .98714264 and b=0. line . Coded Timevalue(x) -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 Trend (Y=a+bx) 25.30 38 1. coded time value. Step8:-In this step we calculate trend(T) which is Y=a+bx . of quarter is even then we multiply the coding time value by 2 to get x i.b.43000144 25. If the total no.091x.24680836 25. if the actual demand is straight line or if the actual demand is quadratic in nature then we consider Y=a+bx+cx2.then the trend will be Y=26.98+0.40892255 27.e.79638761 25. we consider the following equations: For Straight line:∑y=na+b∑x ∑xy=a∑x+b∑x² For Quadratic curve:∑y=na+b∑x+c∑x² ∑xy=a∑x+b∑x²+c∑x³ ∑x²y=a∑x²+b∑x³+c∑x4 For example in this case we get a=26.61319452 25.0806012 1.76232342 26.c.97096444 Deseasonalized demand(TCR) = Actual demand/Seasonal index Step7:-After that we develop the coding time value which is (year-the base year).
060893721 1.For example: Deaseasionalized Demand(TCR) 28.01896066 Trend (Y=a+bx) 25.97096444 27.61319452 25.1245179 1.36286553 27.16277377 CR(TCR/T) 1.39048889 25.0216189 1.0381601 1.1245179 1. The process is going on by leaving the 1st one and accepting the next one.0762097 1.0381601 1.79638761 25. .76232342 26.071482715 1.0327254 Step10:-In this step we calculate the cyclical component (C) which is obtain by adding the consequent three CR and divided by 3.43000144 25.0683113 1.Step9:-After that we calculate the CR which is TCR/T i.97976986 27.97958069 26. For example: CR(TCR/T) 1.0762097 1. deseasonalized demand/trend .e.0216189 1.049031745 Cyclical Component© Cyclical component©=(1st CR+2nd CR+3rd CR)/3.05537998 1.0683113 1.24680836 25.
0683113 1. *** .060893721 0.071482715 1.953462783 1.05537998 1.0216189 1.014436896 Cyclical Component© Random Component® To see the total calculation please refer to the solution page. For example: CR(TCR/T) 1.Step11:-At last we calculate the random component(R) which is CR/C.0762097 1.1245179 1.012252777 1.