The orange revolution Nov 21, 2004

3/27/07 7:26 AM

First we examined eastern europe’s move towards independences •homogeneity •preexisting strong civili society •western support •then we looked at house Ukraine and Belarus are very ver important to agricultural development •have been historically not willing to tolerate dissent in Ukraine •Russians also have a lot of cultural and mythical significance in Ukraine oRussian state actually started in Kiev oboth asian and European a strong cewnter of identity otheyre seen as the sources of Russian identity •why are these countries still allowing Russian control? Oil •the ability to keep asserting control over these areas are critical to continued economic growth •these countries don’t think of themselves as Russian ospeak different languages olots of different religious backgrounds olong empirical history of being invaded odifferent literature and history •they all experienced very little change after declaring independence in the 90s •they all looked west for support, un nato and us •and they all establish govrnments that rejected russian interference •they all had very strong civil societies •and a strong sense of national identity •this is perceived as a proble for national security •and an inability of a way to exert your geopolitical power The Ukraine breaks from the USSR •1991 indeendence puppet communists are rebranded as nationalists and are kept in power •they also stay very closely to Russia othus no real reform is going to happen •Ukriane becomes very corrupt because there was no real revolution •the first president in 1994 is Leonid Kuchma •bringing the oligarchs to power •decentralization= profiteering=the rise of powerful, wealthy men, who require the support of the state •each cln builds a political party •Kuchmagate locked in scandal

ohe actually faces impeachment since he is the primary suspect of the abduction and murder of a reporter The rise of Victor Yushchenko •199 Yushchenko a mild manner banker •becomes prime miister and initiates wide-sweeping economic reforms kicking off a recovert for the country •fuels an economic turnaround ogrows 9.2% in 2000 owithout busting the budget he gave the new revenue back to the core and used the energy reserves to pay for teacher •Yushchenko becomes a threat ousted May 2001 Yushchenko’s ousting leads to the creation of a powerful oppositing political party •Parliamentary majority is gains •meanwhile, an election is coming in 2004 othe current ukranian government choses Yakunokovich who has a criminal record and connected with Kuchma •the elites find a new candidate Victor Yanukovitch othe wrong candidate Efforts to stop Yushchenko •Extra political efforts to stop Yushchenko iincrease as the election nears •September 6, 2004 Yushchenko becomes ill from dioxin poisoning •te media says that botox and contaminated sushi or possibly herpes •supporters were intimidated •and students in kiev would be kicked out of their dorms in winter if they voted for Yushchenko •in july and august •the runoff comes and all the polls show that yushchenko is a sure win •corrupted votes •claims of massive voter fraud were made Yuschenko claims himself as president people take to the streets ukranian supreme court annul elections under extreme power •a new election happens and yuschenko wins easily •lots and lots of international monitors to make sure there is nor fraud •and then people go en masse to vote flower revolutions: shared traits in addition to the factors already mentioned •close historical ties to Russia •a self perception as not Russia •post 1991 little change

•economoinc disillusionment •lack of Russian might Other factora •A competitive authoritarian regime •Receeding political crisis •Charismatic candidate Yushchenko –played his cards well; a new kind of western leader •Sympathetic capital city 100% behind yushchenko •Disunited and dispirited ruling elites- they had all kins of problems with yanikovich •United opposition •New generation •Civic nationalism Five unique factors that influenced the orange revolution •Economic-robust economy •Modern communications-the very first interenet revolution •Public mood oA lot of despondency at the fact that yuschenko might not win oAnd really forced thos people in the population to really get out in force, it created a lot of disillusionment for those who wanted Yanikovich •Security forces oThe military didn’t get involved •International oThe west really got involved

3/27/07 7:26 AM

3/27/07 7:26 AM

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