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998% UNOCCUPIED

How to quantify “too-late” conditions in environments that remain 99.998% unoccupied A mathematical assessment of three quintessential real-world examples This article assesses THREE classical, separate, independent, and quintessential real-world populationenvironment calamities that all took place when the combined bodies (or cells) of the populations ths involved physically-occupied roughly 2/1000 of 1% of the total environmental area or volume that, visually-speaking, appeared to remain theoretically-available to them (see tiny white dot in the image below).

In other words, ALL THREE real-world calamities began (or were already well-underway) in “vast openspace” conditions (99.998% unoccupied) that visually-appeared to remain ALMOST ENTIRELY ‘EMPTY.’ The data sets assessed involve routine outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide (e.g., Karenia brevis ) in marine environments (which induce environmental calamity by their release of wastes into their environments), and two separate and classical climb-and-collapse studies of mammalian populations (reindeer herds, Rangifer tarandus) on Alaskan islands (Scheffer 1951;and Klein 1968). All three offer disquieting testimony concerning humankind’s “vast open-space” suppositions. Given, for example, the visual cues of such seemingly-vast 99.998% “unoccupied” and open-space conditions, it would be extraordinarily difficult for even the most intelligent, thoughtful, and scholarly members of a sentient species to realize either the degree or the proximity of the imminent 99% die-offs and/or mass-mortalities that were about to immediately unfold, or which were actually already underway.

The data sets assessed here show that in each of the three classical calamities that we examine, the open-space conditions in which the mortalities or die-offs begin (or which are already well underway) do not constitute unique or unusual real-world events, but instead constitute quintessential real-world transgressions of boundaries, thresholds, tipping points, and carrying capacities under disquieting “vast open-space” conditions that appear to characterize imminent real-world population-environment calamities.

**Disquieting implications for us?
**

Thus, it is not only important to note that all three calamities began (or were already well underway) at a time when the combined bodies (or cells) of the entire populations involved physically-occupied roughly ths 2/1000 of 1% of surrounding environments (that remained 99.998% unoccupied) and which visuallyappeared to remain almost entirely ‘empty’. It is equally important to note that, in ALL THREE studies that we assess, the tiny white dot in our image does not denote a ‘possible’ or ‘potential’ crisis that ought to demand attention. Instead, for all three quintessential, classical, and independent real-world studies, the ths tiny 2/1000 of 1% dot denotes a moment in time that is already “TOO LATE” (in other words, members of all three populations have already waited ‘TOO LONG’). The above observations constitute a crucial aspect of the image and the studies it reflects, for the image denotes conditions that are already TOO LATE, in which one or more critical population-environment thresholds have ALREADY BEEN BREACHED. In other words, for all three examples, the real-world organisms have already waited too long, which means that, in order to avoid the calamitous outcomes that our image denotes, precautionary measures would have been required much sooner. Assume, for example, for the sake of argument, that all three population-environment crises represented by the image involved hypothetical species of sentient and intelligent organisms. If their societies, leaders, and citizens WAIT until the depicted conditions develop, they will have waited too long, which means that if they are to avoid calamity, preventive and precautionary measures will be required long before the depicted conditions emerge. How much sooner? To avoid calamity, each of the three populations would need to have stabilized their populations AT LEAST one or two (or for true safety, three or four) “doublingtimes” sooner. If that is the case, it would be necessary for the organisms, their societies, and their leaders to recognize, enunciate, and act upon their trajectories, implications, and outcomes at a time when the “combined occupancy dot” that they occupy is just one-half or one-quarter (or one-eighth or onesixteenth) of the size of the dot depicted in our image.

It is also worth noting that while K. brevis cells release only their biological, cellular, and metabolic wastes into their surroundings, our own species supplements its biological wastes with daily worldwide avalanches of industrial and societal wastes. In addition, it would also seem worth noting that our own behavior in this respect is not a localized phenomenon, but that our species-wide supplementary wastes are released, repeatedly and endlessly, into the “onion-skin-thin films” that comprise the atmosphere and waters of the entire earth on a daily, ongoing, planet-wide, and ever-increasing basis.

It should also be disquieting that our own species is also unique in its propensity to inflict massive, daily, ever-growing, and planetary-scale levels of sheer physical damage to, destruction of, and eradication upon the only planetary life-support machinery so far known to exist anywhere in the universe. And this destruction and eradication is not a minimal or minor footnote to our biology, but is instead one of our most pronounced and all-encompassing characteristics. No other animals do this, and no other animals in the history of the earth have EVER done this; so that our own species may, perhaps, be on a trajectory that is not only worse than that of a worldwide outbreak of red-tide dinoflagellates, but may be multiple orders of magnitude worse at that. (Consider, for example, that no human body, space vehicle, or motor vehicle could be rationally expected to continue to function if 60%, 70%, or 90% or more of its operating systems are damaged, eradicated, or destroyed.) (And, in addition, dropping J-curves into various complex equilibrial systems, as the 1945 atomic tests at Alamogordo, New Mexico first taught us, is not always a good idea – see J-curve graphs of human population growth in article appendices.) Why then, should we suppose that earth's biospheric life-support machinery is invulnerable?

In addition to the above outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide, the other two classical examples of population catastrophes and mortalities that we cite (with 99% die-offs in both cases) in environments that visuallyappeared to remain almost entirely ‘empty’ (again, with thresholds of roughly 2/1000ths of 1% occupied or nearly 99.998% unoccupied) are seen in two separate and independent studies of mammals (reindeer) on two Alaskan islands (V.B. Scheffer, 1951 and D.R. Klein, 1968), so that in this single post we cite three separate, classical, independent, and quintessential documentations of massive die-offs, mortalities, and/or population-environment calamities in “vast open-space” conditions and environmental surroundings that visually appear to remain ALMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY. The supporting mathematics and discussion of the three cited examples are also accessible at the following links: PDF - Three calamitous population thresholds in "vast open-space" conditions at http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/81278312?access_key=key-r945rtq3hxbe7lnfn68 and similar discussion and mathematics are presented in PowerPoint format at http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/29284061?access_key=key-1d5uc7f665roaubtur7w

Further considerations Suppose we wish to draw an equivalent rectangle intended to approximately-denote humankind’s own potential approach to its worldwide population-environment boundaries, thresholds, tipping points, and carrying capacities. Given a dot of exactly the same size as depicted in our image in this article, such a diagram would appear to require a rectangle hat is tens, hundreds, if not thousands, of times larger than the one used in this article for the dinoflagellate and reindeer data sets that are assessed. Imagine, therefore, applying an ecological footprint [damage-trail] or similar approach to assessing population-environment thresholds for a modern, worldwide, and industrialized humankind. Clearly, the enormous degrees of consumption, wastes, degradation, and sheer environmental eradication inflicted by (or in behalf of) an average human today are tens, hundreds, or thousands of times the impacts of an average dinoflagellate or reindeer. This means that the ongoing, additive, worldwide, accumulating, and cumulative adverse impacts that we collectively exert are inflicted by fewer individual humans, and accumulate more quickly and reach cumulative values, boundaries, limits, and thresholds far, far sooner so that they reach an ecological limit more rapidly and at an earlier point in time.

Imagine the cumulative lifetime footprint of wastes, damage, degradations, and eradications [damage trail] inflicted by an individual industrialized human, for example, as opposed to that of an individual reindeer over the same period of time. In addition, these wastes, damages, impacts, consumptions, and eradications are also inflicted and accumulate with greater speed and on a wider scale, so that our collective adverse impacts carry us toward systems-failures thresholds tens, hundreds, or even thousands of times more quickly (sooner).

Thus, a diagram to depict potential or likely human population-environment thresholds, boundaries, or limits might be drawn in two different ways. First, we could, for example, use a dot of exactly the same size as the small dot in the initial diagram in this article, and then use footprint [damage trail] analysis or similar to place the dot in a rectangle that is tens, hundreds, or even thousands of times larger than the one at the outset of this article. Alternatively, we could use a rectangle of exactly the same size, but we would have to denote the human threshold as a dot that is hundreds, if not thousands, of times smaller.

In other words, our own damage unfolds and accumulates so much more quickly that our own species speeds toward, reaches, and breaches inviolable thresholds tens, hundreds, or thousands of times SOONER than would the organisms in the three examples assessed in this article. The point to be made is this: If 2/1000ths of 1% occupancy (99.998% unoccupied) vast-open space conditions would tend to engender dangerously-complacent suppositions in an even a sentient, intelligent, and well-educated species, then our own individual and collective levels of impact are occurring and accumulating so much more quickly, that our own seemingly-instinctive “open-space” suppositions would tend to tempt and mislead us even more.

For example, as sobering or disquieting as the above contemplations may be, we must also take into account that neither the dinoflagellates nor the reindeer herds assessed here were technologicallyadvanced organisms with, for instance, chainsaws, earth-moving machinery, coal mines, automobiles, long-line fishing fleets, nuclear wastes, and other means by which to speed, magnify, and amplify the degree, extent, rapidity, and efficiency of their individual and collective impacts. Thus, since the ecological footprint of the whole of humankind, taken together, has individual, lifelong, and civilization-wide impacts that are 1000s or tens of 1000s of times the amplitude of even the most calamitous reindeer or dinoflagellate populations that have ever lived, equivalent dots depicting humankind’s likely population-environment thresholds would require dots that are at least 100s, if not 1000s (or tens of 1000s) of times smaller than the dot depicted in the image this article employs.

Footnote: Australian Kevin Thomas has observed that, while the concept and mathematical calculations of an “ecological footprint” are both insightful and useful, that the term itself is “too benign,” and that the daily and lifetime impacts that each of us exert (or which are exerted in our behalf) might be more properly characterized as “ecological damage trails.”)

Thus, in addition to our biological, social, and industrial wastes, that an average human being also inflicts hundreds, or even thousands of times the physical damage and sheer eradication inflicted by an individual dinoflagellate or reindeer (which, after all, do not have chain-saws, shopping malls, parking lots, highways, automobiles, trucks, subdivisions, condos, GPS fishing fleets, and concrete plants, etc. with which to damage and eradicate their life-support machinery).

This suggests that to correctly depict a rectangle that depicts humankind’s transgression point of its population-environment boundaries, limits, thresholds, or tipping points would require (given a dot of exactly the same size) a rectangle that is hundreds (or even thousands) of times larger. In other words, because an average person’s impacts are 100s, if not 1000s, of times greater than the impacts of a typical dinoflagellate or reindeer, we would reach our own critical boundary, threshold, or tipping point hundreds, if not thousands of times sooner 2. In addition, since our 2/1000ths of 1% image denotes conditions when calamity has already begun or when calamity is already well underway, to depict in a proportionally-correct way the earlier conditions when the subject populations still had time to initiate preventive actions (one, two, or three or more doublings earlier), would require a rectangle (environment) which is at least twice as large (one doubling time remaining) or four times as large (two doubling times remaining) as the one used in this article’s image (both of which latter conditions are still sailing quite dangerously close to the edge). 3. THIN SURFACE FILMS: Among human beings there appears to exist an almost instinctive or innate pro-pensity to imagine that earth’s atmosphere, oceans, and seas, which we suppose to be so immense, should therefore be somehow immune to (or resilient when confronted with) the enormous insults and impacts of tiny biological entities such as ourselves.

To correct such misperceptions, however, we need only to wipe a wet paper towel across the surface of a 50 cm model globe, for the thin-film of water that is left behind would be, mathematically-speaking, proportionally too deep to correctly-depict the relative depths of earth’s atmosphere and seas.25 In other words, in mathematical and planetary reality, both earth's atmosphere and its seas are actually extraordinarily thin and superficial surface films. Mathematically speaking, for instance, 99.94% of the earth consists of its crust, mantle, and its molten interior, while the thin layer of water that we refer to as an ocean exists only as an inexpressibly thin and precarious surface film that is just 6/100ths of 1% as thick as the earth itself. To illustrate this depth to scale on a model globe, we would need a layer of water just 3/100ths of a cm deep to proportionately represent the depth of earth's oceans. If we were to wipe a wet paper towel across a 50-cm globe, the film it leaves behind would be too deep to properly characterize the depth of earth's oceans.

After International Oceanographic Foundation film The Unlikely Planet, 1977, Planet Ocean, Virginia Key, Florida.

Randolph Femmer, Senior Advisor, Biospherics Literacy 101 and The Wecskaop Project What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

Appendices follow

Appendices

I. Graphs of Human Population Growth - 8000 BCE to 2100. First note the pronounced J-curve shape in each

case; Also note that even J-curves begin to show signs of slowing near the end of their progressions (even J-curves, after all, cannot rocket upward forever), except that, unlike logistic, sigmoid, or s-curves, in the case of a J-curve, such slowing does not denote a gradual transition to a balanced state of equilibrial interaction – but instead characterizes the moments immediately preceding the data set’s sudden plummeting to a value of zero.

The graphs incorporate 2011 U.N. medium-fertility (left) and high-fertility (right) world population projections to 2100.

II. Synopses of each of the three data sets assessed The first data that we assessed involved classical outbreaks of dinoflagellate red-tide in marine environred ments. Such population explosions of on one-celled dinoflagellates (e.g., Karenia brevis constitute one of brevis) nature’s quintessential examples of population explosions that culminate in mass mortalities and envir environmental catastrophes. A typical catastrophic outcome, which may include deaths of millions of tons of fish (and even, for example, manatees) occurs as the cells responsible for the calamity reach, approach, or ple, exceed densities of approximately 1,000,000 cells per liter.1 In such outbreaks, dinoflagellate populations release toxins (brevetoxins) into their surroundings (a characteristic worth noting, perhaps, since our own eristic species appears to exhibit an extraordinarily extraordinarily-similar pattern of behavior). In this first assessment then, the results reported in this article show that all one million K. brevis cells per liter, when taken together, physically occupy a combined volume of less than 2/1000ths of 1% of the one physically-occupy liter water samples in which they reside. In other words, they induce calamity (by their production and release of wastes) in seemingly “vast open open-space conditions” and in surroundings that visually appear to remain ALMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY. What this mathematics shows (and the red-rectangle that opens this article depicts), is that these enormous red hat red-tide outbreaks reach, breach, and transgress calamitous po poulation-environment thresholds at a time when all 1,000,000 dinoflagellate cells per liter, when taken environment together, could physically-fit into the tiny white dot in this article’s opening image and in environmental fit surroundings that remain roughly 99.998% unoccupied. The second study that we assessed was V.B. Scheffer's classic description of The rise and fall of a reindeer herd on St. Paul Island, Alaska reported in 1951 (Scientific Monthly 73:356-362). That herd began in 1911 when the 362). U.S. government introduced 25 reindeer to the approxi 5 approximately 106 km2 island in the Bering Sea (the article cites 26,500 acres). By 1938 the reindeer population peaked at more than 2000 individuals, after which a nearly-anniividuals, hilating 99% die-off began which left just eight remainoff remain ing individuals by the close of the study in 1950. (Our assessment in this report shows that at the herd’s peak population, their combined bodies physically-occupied physically roughly 2/1000ths of 1% of their island’s total area, so that their peak population and their 99%-plus die-off both took place in surroundings that were 99.998% thei off unoccupied.) The graph shown above(after Scheffer, 1951) depicts the classical climb-and(after -collapse data set of the study. Note that the graph of this classical, real-world population study does not exhibit a logistic or real sigmoid-curve, but instead exemplifies the other classical population outcome known as climb-andcollapse. (The gap in the graph reflects data that were not able to be collected during World War II.) The third study that we assessed was another separate and independent, reindeer study reported by D.R. Klein in 1968 entitled The introduction, increase, and crash of a reindeer herd on St. Matthew Island, Alaska (Journal of Wildlife Management 32:350-367). This study began in 1944 when 29 reindeer ( Journal 32:350 (Rangifer tarandus) were introduced to the island. In the ensuing years, the herd increased to more than 6000 ) individuals by 1963, followed by a “nearly annihilating” 99% collapse prior to the close of the study in 1966. (Our assessment in this report also shows that in this separate and independent study, at the herd’s sment peak population, their combined bodies physically-occupied roughly 2/1000ths of 1% of this island’s total physically occupied area as well, so that their peak population and their 99% 99%-plus die-off both took place in surroundings that off were 99.998% unoccupied.) (The supporting math for all three of the above assessments is outlined next.)

Supporting Mathematics

Part One: Red-tides / Karenia brevis

Outbreaks of deadly red-tide typically contain 100,000 to 1,000,000 or more dinoflagellate cells (e.g., Karenia brevis) per liter. Our estimate based on Karenia brevis cells in a one-liter water sample taken from a representative outbreak of dinoflagellate red-tide is based on the mathematics outlined below. (1) A volume of one liter water (1000 cm3) (2) The approximate dimensions of a single cell of K. brevis :

**L: ~ 30 um (approximately 0.03 mm) 1,2,3 W: ~ (approximately 0.035 mm) 1,2,3 (“a little wider than it is long") 1 D: ~ 10 – 15 um deep (10 um = .010 mm; 15 um = .015 mm) 1,2,3 (so average = ~ .0125 mm)
**

1 2 3

L. or approximately 0.0012 inches W: or about 0.0014 inches D: or approximately 0.0005 inches

Nierenberg, personal communication, 2008 (L: 18-45 um; W: 18-45 um; D: 10-15 um) Bushaw-Newton, K.L. and Sellner, K.G. 1999. Harmful Algal Blooms IN: NOAA’s State of the Coast Report, Silver Spring, MD. NOAA Floridamarine.org, 2008

The above values permit the following calculations: Since the volume of a typical cell of K. brevis is approximated by V = (L) x (W) x (D), then multiplying (0.03 mm) x (0.035 mm) x (0.0125 mm) equates to an approximate volume of 0.000 013 125 mm3. If a single cell of K. brevis occupies approximately 0.000 013 125 mm3, then a population of one million cells found in a one-liter sample from an outbreak of red-tide would give us (1,000,000) times (0.000 013 125 mm3) for a combined occupied volume of approximately 13.125 mm3 or 00.013 125 cm33 Given that a one liter water sample is equal to 1000 cm3, then (1000 cm3) minus (0.013 125 cm3) means that approximately 999.986 875 cm3 of unoccupied volume (of apparently “unoccupied empty space”) would still appear to remain theoretically-available. Percentage Unoccupied If we divide the unoccupied volume (999.986 875 cm3) by the total volume of one liter (which is 1000 cm3) the result equates to a percentage of approximately 99.998 688% unoccupied volume. Finally, noting that (100%) minus (99.998%) leaves 2/1000ths of 1%), informs us that taken together, all 1,000,000 K. brevis cells residing in the one-liter sample physically-occupy less than 2/1000ths of 1% of the water sample in which they reside, with seemingly-abundant “vast open-space” appearing to remain theoretically-available. This means that the above K. brevis population manages to routinely visit calamity upon itself and the aqueous environment in which it resides, even when the K. brevis cells themselves physically-occupy less than two onethousandths of one percent of the total volume that appears to remain seemingly-available in a surrounding environment that would visually-appear to be ALMOST ENTIRELY EMPTY. This demonstrates that, despite apparently enormous "open-space" conditions, and despite the fact that the K. brevis cells themselves occupy a volumetrically-insignificant portion of the "open-space" that appears to remain seemingly available, they have, by their combined overpopulation and each cell's production of invisible and calamitous wastes, catastrophically-damaged, altered, and induced mass-mortality within the aqueous surroundings in which they reside. In other words, the calamitous population-environment outcome takes place in “vast open-space” conditions that would visually-seem to remain almost entirely empty.

**Mathematics used to generate 2/1000ths image
**

Here we outline the mathematics used to generate the wine-red rectangle in the illustration shown left. red (1) Use imaging software to open a rectangle 500 pixels by 350 pixels wide = 175,000 sq. pixels (2) Calculate one percent of this area as follows: (175,000) x (.01) = 1750 square pixels (3) Calculate 1/1000th of one percent as follows: (1750) x (.001) = 1.750 square pixels xels (4) Calculate 2/1000ths of one percent as follows: (1750) x (.002) = 3.5 square pixels (5) Calculate the square root of 3.5 square pixels (Which equates to 1.87 pixels)

Which means that in a rectangle of 175,000 square pixels, a “dot” of squar dimensions (1.87 pixels) x (1.87 pixels) = 3.5 square pixels will ) proportionately equal 2/1000ths of one percent.

Part Two: V.B. Scheffer’s classic reindeer climb-and-collapse study on St. Paul Island, collapse Alaska (1951) (Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus) Our estimate that the reindeer of St. Paul Island, Alaska physically-occupied roughly occupied ths 2/1000 of 1%” of the island’s total area at the time of collapse is derived as follows: The study’s herd of reindeer reached a maximum population of a little over 2000 individuals individuals. First we assumed that an average reindeer is approximately 190 cm long (by assuming that the females average approximately 180 cm long with males about 200 cm long, so that as a rough assessment, we assumed an overall ssumed average of about 190 cm - or even somewhat less since some percentage were non tage non-adults). In a similar way, as a rough assessment we assumed that the width of an average reindeer was approxi approximately 65 cm, understanding, of course, that actual average girth would vary with the time of year, the actual number of pregnant females and a changing number of fawns and yearlings and so forth, so for rough assessment purposes we assumed an average width of about 65 cm. Thus the area physically occupied by an average member of the population a physically-occupied 2 would equal about (190 cm) x (65 cm) or approximately 12,350 cm each

Given a peak reindeer population of St. Paul island of slightly more than 2000 animals, (2000) x (12,350) equates to a phys2 ical occupancy of approximately 24,700,000 cm by the combined bodies of the entire herd. Since one square meter equals 10,000 cm , then dividing the 2 above (24,700,000 cm ) by (10,000) reveals that, taken together, the combined bodies of an entire herd of 2000 animals would physically-occupy a total of 2470 square meters. Since the area of St. Paul Island Alaska is about 106,000,000 square meters or approximately 41 square miles, we next subtract the 2470 square meters that is physically-occupied by the entire herd from the total square meters of the island: 2 2 (106,000,000 m ) minus (2470 m ) which equates to a total of 2 approximately 105,997,530 m that remain unoccupied. Lastly, dividing the total unoccupied space (105,997,530 square meters) by the island’s total area of approximately 106,000,000 square meters gives us the approximate percentage of total unoccupied space at the time that the reindeer population was at its peak, which was 0.999 976 or about 999.998%1, which means that the St. Paul Island reindeer population underwent a collapse involving a 99% die-off in “vast open-space conditions” in a surrounding environment that would have visually-appeared to remain approximately .999.998%9. empty. Part Three: We assessed a second classical population climb-and-collapse study reported by D.R. Klein in 1968- The introduction, increase, and crash of a reindeer herd on St. Matthew Island, Alaska. (JWM 32:350-367)

The Scheffer article itself used 26,500 acres; 41 sq miles = 26,240 acres, and 41 sq miles = 106.189513 km2 or 106,189,512.52 m2 so that here, our assessment uses 106,000,000 m2 or 106 km2 as the island’s total area.

2

In this study, which began in 1944 with 29 reindeer introduced to the island, the herd increased to more than 6000 individuals by 1963, followed by a 99% collapse in 1964 and leading to a close of the study in 1966. For purposes of this assessment. we used the same rough estimates of reindeer sizes as used in part two above. In this case, however, this island (St. Matthew Island in the Bering Sea) was about three 2 times larger (approximately 331.52 km or 331,520,000 sq. meters or 128 square miles) and, in addition, the caribou herd grew to more than 6,000 individuals. Therefore, 6000 reindeer (males, females, and non-adults) which individually occupy an approximate av2 erage of 12,350 cm each, would occupy a combined total of (6000) times (12,350) which would equate to 2 an approximate total occupied area of about 74,100,000 cm for the entire herd. Next we convert this 2 number to square meters, dividing (74,100,000) by (10,000), which equates to approximately 7410 m of the island’s surface that is physically-occupied by the combined bodies of the entire herd. Taking, then, the island’s total approximate area of 331,520,000 m2 and subtracting the 7410 m2 that are physically2 2 occupied by the reindeer herd, (331,520,000 m ) minus (7410 m ) equates to a total area of about 2 331,512,590 m of unoccupied space that would appear to remain seemingly available. Lastly, dividing the total unoccupied island area (331,512,590 m ) by the approximate total area of the 2 entire island (331,520,000 m ) equates to 0.999 975 869, or a reindeer peak population and ensuing near-annihilation in a habitat or environment that would have visually-appeared to remain ....99.998%% eempty..

2

p.s. – Using mid-range Easter Island human population estimates from Jared Diamond’s book Collapse (a pre-industrial population with no ability to inflict industrialized levels of damage or to release industrialized levels of waste) yields closely-similar results (less than 3/1000ths of 1%)

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**

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http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/ Scheffer, V.B. 1951. The rise and fall of a reindeer herd. Scientific Monthly 73: 356-362. Thomas, K. 2010. Discussing ecological footprint, at http://www.evfit.com/population_max.htm and http://www.evfit.com/footprint.htm Accessed 2012. Union of Concerned Scientists, 1992. An urgent warning to humanity. Cambridge, Ma. United Nations, Economic and Social Affairs Division, 2009. World Population Prospects: the 2008 revision, highlights. United Nations, NY. United Nations, Economic and Social Affairs Division, 2011. World Population Prospects: the 2010 revision, United Nations, NY.

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm and http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp Accessed Feb, 2012

United Nations, Economic and Social Affairs Division, 2008. World Population Prospects: the 2006 revision, highlights. United Nations, NY. United Nations, Economic and Social Affairs Division, 2005. World Population Prospects: the 2004 revision, highlights. United Nations, NY. United Nations (U.N.) Population Division. 2003. Long-range World Population Projections: Proceedings of the United Nations Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections, 30 June 2003. (ESA/P/WP.186). United Nations (2003a). World Population Prospects: The 2002 revision, volume III. United Nations, NY. Wackernagel, M. (1994). The ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity: A tool for planning toward sustainability. Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of British Columbia School of Community and Regional Planning. Vancouver: UBC/SCARP. Wackernagel, M. and W. Rees, 1996. Our Ecological Footprint, New Society Press, British Columbia, Canada.

**Additional articles, presentations, and online resources
**

Online freely-downloadable population-environment- sustainability open-courseware PowerPoints and PDF resources courtesy of The Wecskaop Project (What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet) include (Feb 2012):

WHAT EVERY CITIZEN SHOULD KNOW ABOUT OUR PLANET http://www.scribd.com/full/26119061?access_key=key1l335lvubous6humjet THE WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT DATA SET http://www.scribd.com/full/25205868?access_key=key185oi1iak3v0apsejby0 and http://en.calameo.com/read/000676519abbd58b7a1fb WHY 15.8 BILLION SHOULD BE VIEWED AS AN EMERGENCY http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/55268052?access_key=ke y-tov3iziacuwi8o8itf0 and http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197cf493ba7071 PRESENTATION 1- INTRODUCTION TO WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS http://www.calameo.com/read/000676519f0d6036053ca and http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/18366094?access_key=key20iiu722r2dhym1z49ua PRESENTATION 2 - POPULATION CALAMITIES IN LARGELY “EMPTY” ENVIRONMENTS? http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/18695522?access_key=key1w8nmjhkgenpvbqhmsad and http://www.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510 PRESENTATION 3 - ECOLOGICAL SERVICES AND BIOSPHERIC MACHINERY http://www.calameo.com/read/000676519ed54381073f0 and http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/30231732?access_key=keyx4cwny8s654eee30t8s and http://en.calameo.com/read/000676519c061743fccf1 PRESENTATION 4 : EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE AND SEAS AS ‘ONION-SKIN-THIN’ SURFACE FILMS http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/65245833?access_key=ke y-q5s0wrtfbqgmruaz934 PRESENTATION 5 – EXPONENTIAL MATHEMATICS IN POPULATION SYSTEMS http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/36312984?access_key=ke y-1c13jypzhjpi8z6luyu3 CONSERVATION - WHY 10% GOALS MAY PERMIT COLLAPSE [PDF] http://www.scribd.com/full/18030175?access_key=keycprix4htb45zxmqih5k and http://en.calameo.com/books/0006765197b170f41eeac POPULATION MOMENTUM … (… ON STEROIDS…)? [PDF] http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/74206577?access_key=ke

y-1evk8690zl9s5oizw6ol and http://www.calameo.com/read/000676519911b1dd3185d DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY - NEW QUESTIONS [PDF] http://www.scribd.com/full/19805610?access_key=key26edj738ikczlrizhj5w POPULATION, CARRYING CAPACITY, AND LIMITING FACTORS [PDF] http://www.scribd.com/full/18200189?access_key=key226a157t58s60vfziy2m and http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765198abdce745e30 100 KEY ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATIONAL COMPETENCIES [PDF] http://www.scribd.com/full/24864944?access_key=key1trf14l84r1cysefcbkq and http://en.calameo.com/read/000676519728242b963c2 SUMMARY OF HUMAN POPULATION HISTORY [PDF] http://en.calameo.com/read/000676519b01872a28c3b HOW BIG IS A BILLION? (A BILLION PAGES OF THEORETICAL PHYSICS?) [PDF] http://www.calameo.com/read/000676519a0f5f8d39904 AFRICA AND THE WORLD - AT THE CROSSROADS http://www.scribd.com/doc/72288200/Africa-MDGs-andthe-Power-of-today-s-Under-20s#fullscreen:on THRESHOLDS TIPPING POINTS UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES [PDF] http://en.calameo.com/read/000676519640b1f233e50 LAG-TIMES, DELAYED FEEDBACKS, OVERSHOOT, AND COLLAPSE [PDF] http://en.calameo.com/read/00067651904a0cbc37940 DOWNLOADABLE POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT-SUSTAINABILITY GRAPHS AND IMAGES http://www.flickr.com/photos/pali_nalu BIOSPHERICS 101 for WORKSHOPS and INTRODUCTORY COURSES in 5 Days / Five PowerPoints http://www.scribd.com/TheWecskaopProject EXPONENTIAL and NON-LINEAR MATHEMATICS IN POPULATION SYSTEMS [PDFs 1, 2, 3, and 4] http://www.scribd.com/math_resources Randolph Femmer, Senior Advisor, The Wecskaop Project What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet

A downloadable PowerPoint on this topic (Population crises in seemingly “empty” environments?) is available at

http://www.scribd.com/full/29285612?access_k ey=key-22u7vwxpigfg98aws6yx

- Les Calamities de Population Dans Les Environnements Vacants (ppt2)
- Africa, MDGs, and the Power of today's "Under-20s"
- Por qué la U. N.' s más nuevas proyecciones mundiales de población deben ser vistas como un emergencia
- ppt2 - ¿ Calamidades de población en ambientes que parecen ser vacío ?
- J-curves, exponential, and non-linear progressions in population systems (ppt)
- Graphs, 2/1000ths of 1%, supporting math, and U.N. projections to 2100
- Population calamities in "vast open-space" conditions - (ppt) (Env mathematics 101)
- Environmental Mathematics 4 - Thin Films (Earth's atmosphere and seas) (ppt)
- World population and demographics - A mathematical overview (ppt)
- The Mathematics of Drake's Equation - Planets, stars, and life elsewhere? (ppt presentation)
- Key Math Concepts - How Big is a Billion?
- Math
- Exponential Mathematics 2 - J-curves
- Exponential Mathematics 3 - Counterintuitive riddles
- Exponential Mathematics 4 - Late-Phase exponential?

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UsefulNot usefulUsing mathematics to sharpen our understanding of environmental, ecological, and demographic limits. Can a real-world population be expected to recognize real environmental or demographic limits in...

Using mathematics to sharpen our understanding of environmental, ecological, and demographic limits. Can a real-world population be expected to recognize real environmental or demographic limits in environmental surroundings that are 99.998% UNOCCUPIED and which appear to remain almost entirely empty? This document and its mathematics explores exactly such questions. Useful and freely-downloadable open-courseware information for mathematics courses, workshops, environmental education, decision-makers, and world policymakers.

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