In the developing world, the availability and cost of power can play a vital role in economic development and

people's well-being. As countries become wealthier and their populations grow, demand for energy increases. Traditional sources of energy are often too expensive to satisfy this demand. There are also concerns about the limited reserves of fossil fuels and their environmental costs. Solar energy, in particular, is an excellent alternative to fossil fuels, particularly for such developing countries as Pakistan that receive high levels of solar radiation. More and more countries, therefore, are introducing economically and environmentally sound energy policies and are turning to solar energy for a wide range of uses, including cooking and water heating. However, people are unlikely to adopt a completely new technology until they know something about it and have seen how it works. They need to have access to clearly presented information that explains the technical and economic benefits of replacing longestablished traditional methods with new, innovative ways of doing things. This means that the new technology must be readily available. When this project began, the Solar Energy Research Centre (SERC) in Pakistan had already developed designs for solar geysers and cookers suited to the country’s socio-economic conditions. However, the Centre did not have facilities to manufacture these devices at affordable prices and of high enough quality. With US$2,500 in funding, SERC was able to establish an up-to-date facility for the mass production of solar geysers and cookers and provide all the necessary technical support, service implementation and management for such a facility.

the country receives an average of about 19 mega joules per square meter of solar energy. • Better health for many rural people. At present. about 70 per cent of the population lives in some 50. it faces serious energy problems 95 per cent of its electricity generation comes from hydropower. which becomes less productive during the driest. and agriculture is suffering. Solar energy. Many of these villages are far from the main transmission lines of the national grid and. in particular. As a result of deforestation and other ecological changes. Solar energy systems have already been developed and tested. hottest months of the year and cannot keep pace with the sharp rise in energy demand. At the same time. temperatures have risen. because of their relatively small populations. has excellent potential in areas of Pakistan that receive high levels of solar radiation throughout the year. pollution-free alternative to gas. The effects of the new technology are: • Reduced deforestation • Improved environmental conditions. are suffering the health implications of inhaling fumes from dung and other materials. other electricity sources and wood. for example. It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other natural resources.095 square kilometers of land between latitudes 24° and 36° north and longitudes 61° and 76° east. Wood conservation is particularly significant in rural areas. rainfall has decreased. .Background Pakistan covers 796. on the other hand. Not only can solar systems meet basic needs of rural areas. Energy Crisis In Pakistan An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. They can also replace the traditional use of wood or dried dung for domestic cooking. • Less rural to urban migration. thereby solving significant health and environmental problems. and they should now be adopted extensively as a way of supporting the economy of the country and improving the living standards of its people.000 villages dispersed around the country. Every day. where demand for fuel wood is leading to widespread deforestation. it is usually not economically viable to connect these villages to the grid. • Enhanced agricultural development • Poverty alleviation. women and children. leaving more of these valuable resources for other domestic and industrial needs. Also. but they can also reduce the pressure on conventional energy sources in urban areas. water-table levels have fallen. Solar geysers and cookers can be installed in remote rural and suburban areas and are a safe.

5 – 7. The energy consumption is expected to grow at double digit if the overall economy sustains the targeted GDP growth rate of 6% by the government. Pakistan’s energy requirements are expected to double in the next few years. Airplanes. touching 8. For the coming years. Nations of the world which have their own reserves are not supplying energy resources anymore.The crisis often has effects on the rest of the economy. with many recessions being caused by an energy crisis in some form. motorbikes. terrorist issues in Nigeria and high economic growth in China & India and their ever rising energy requirements. alternate methods like solar. only the old contracts made decades ago are active. the energy requirements are likely to increase with a similar rate. but realistic enough to think about and plan for the future. In particular. with every news directly or indirectly affecting the black gold industry. For 2004-05. international oil prices have not only broken all records but are touching new highs.0%. Energy resources have depleted! Whatever resources are available are simply too expensive to buy or already acquired by countries which had planned and acted long time ago. With economy growing at such a pace. the price of gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises. the nation’s requirement will be 7 times the current requirement reaching 361MTOE. higher transportation costs and general price rising. By 2030. buses and trucks. Delayed efforts in the exploration sector have not been able to find sufficient amounts of energy resources. all modes of transportation are coming to a standstill. For the consumer. Pakistan’s economy is performing at a very high note with GDP growing at an exceptional rate. Many industries have closed due to insufficient power supply. Pakistan’s energy requirements are fulfilled with more than 80% of energy resources through imports. A pessimistic view. At domestic level. the production costs of electricity rise. Moreover. leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending. which raises manufacturing costs. On the other hand. biogas and other methods are being tried for mere survival.5 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent). oil prices don’t see any another way but to shoot upwards.In its history of 58 years. Price of oil has gone above the ceiling. But are we doing anything about it? Let’s have a look at the current energy situation of Pakistan and the world. With concerns over Iran’s nuclear program. Pakistan’s energy consumption touched 55.35% in 2004-05. This year official expectations are that GDP growth rate will be around 6. speculators all around the world expect oil prices to touch $100 per barrel in medium term. and our energy requirements by 2015 is likely to cross 120MTOE. The above is a likely scenario of Pakistan and around the globe after 25 years. there has been only a few golden years where the economy grew above 7%. What is the government doing to ensure a sustainable supply of energy resources for economic growth? What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy resources in future? Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistan’s oil industry? What are the incentives being offered to the . cars. trains. the government is targeting GDP growth rate above 6%.

Meanwhile. The country has nearly gone energy bankrupt while a total disaster appears to be round the corner unless pragmatism is shown. There is very little the new government can do on this in the immediate term. The approach has been “project-oriented. The prevalent crisis is a consequence of imprudent energy policies over the last three decades. The infuriating electricity and gas disruptions and soaring fuel prices in turn pushing the cost of living have made life difficult for people. the problem can be prevented from aggravating until a sustainable solution is struck. There is no quick solution to electricity shortage and the trend of surging prices is irreversible. The attitude of delaying new projects. as a result of negligible capacity . is intense. costly and multi-dimensional. The even before it took office the new government was greeted with two jumps in fuel prices. One of the major limitations that have hindered energy prosperity in the country is shortsightedness. action in the field of energy has been utterly recklessness. including Kalabagh. when things start getting out of control. accounting for a 15% rise in two weeks. were actively pursued. Tough decisions will have to be made.” Almost every regime has dealt with energy on an ad hoc basis. shooting 40% in the past year. There has not been a meaningful and coherent energy policy in place over this period. kerosene and other oil products in Pakistan? When will the nation have “load shedding free” electric supply? Have we been able to make long term contracts with the countries to provide uninterrupted supply of energy resources? Will the government be able to provide enough sources to the citizens for a sustainable economic growth? Have we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy resources for future survival? One of the major problems facing the new government. In an attempt to avert an approaching energy crisis. and executed with commitment. The reason is fairly simple. energy projects usually require huge investments and commitment. The crisis is still addressable as long as there is due vision and devotion. At best. making them undesirable to any regime. In subsequent years. haphazard and quickfix measures are sought. has been the common practice and is in fact the recipe of the present crises. The starting point of any remedial efforts should be an acknowledgement of the fact that the crisis is a self-inflicted one. It is also important that lessons be learnt from the past mistakes on part of relevant circles. The golden age for energy in Pakistan has been 1960s and most of the 1970s. The undeniable reality is that that this global spike will somehow have to be accommodated in energy prices in Pakistan. It cannot be denied that something has been wrong down the line that caused this crisis. In doing so. A typical example is the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) saga of the 1990s. as far as possible. Long-term and sustainable planning of energy has been an alien concept.” rather than “goal-oriented. crude oil prices have been registering all-time-highs.foreign players to continue working in the exploration sector? What hurdles are stopping other big players around the world to enter Pakistan? What is the role of gas distribution companies so far? Are the citizens of Pakistan being robbed by energy giants with ever rising utility bills? What should be the real price of petroleum. the energy crisis. that is when Tarbela and Mangla dams were put into operation and other dams.

It got abandoned until the present power crises intensified towards the end of 2007.makers. Another example worth quoting here is that of the 969MW Neelam-Jehlum hydroelectric project. have to be addressed on the drawing board. It is time to move on. The fact that the IPPs were set up at the terms of the investors suggest that it was a move made in panic. Interestingly. simply because they are considered to be the most lucrative ones. The unhealthy attitude towards sensitive energy positions is enough to explain how the field of energy has been traditionally toyed with. enhancing power generation capacity by more than 5000MW. with the advent of 2008 the gap between demand and supply grew to 4. It is also important to plant relevant and qualified people at the key policy and decision making positions. The paramount example is that of Kalabagh Dam. It has to be realised that the delay in project has not only made the country suffer but also people that come from all provinces. because the common man blames WAPDA for his sufferings. The attitude of the relevant authorities has thus indirectly contributed to the growth of the dire crisis. ill-qualified and incompetent people. Undoubtedly. It has been politicised to such an extent that its orchestration now appears to be next to impossible. apart from enormous monetary dents inflicted by the five-year delay. The prevalent energy crisis has not appeared overnight — the omens were evident for a number of years but the authorities failed to react in time.500MW indicating a 40% deficit of electricity. There are examples when undergraduate and utterly irrelevant people have been appointed to run energy offices. rather in processions.addition during the 1980s and the early 1990s. . these positions are offered to utterly irrelevant.5 billion. It was to be constructed in 2003 at a cost of $1.and decision. the IPPs provided a very healthy contribution at the supply end. The revised estimate is around $2. it is expected that such projects would be looked into with cool heads. WAPDA plays the role of a scapegoat. Nevertheless. The track record suggests that energy offices are amongst the most coveted ones in any regime. The technical issues. Evidences suggest that the issue has been used to serve the vested interest of regimes and certain political and ethnical forces. It is also noteworthy that WAPDA has traditionally pursued the major projects of national interest but failed to get the due positive response from the policy.25 billion. the regime in 1993-94 decided to go for thermal generation through the IPPs. Quite often. the move was against the spirit of energy sustainability and security for the country. The last few years provide a perfect example of failure to make a timely response to the growing energy needs. this power addition cost the country a fortune – apart from the controversial tariff structure. The delay is costing the country a fortune – an extra $750 million in terms of project cost. The timely warning failed to receive any appreciation. Consequently. Another aspect of the bankrupt policies is politicisation of projects of national interest. if there be any. With the emerging post-lection sense of national reconciliation on the political arena. There are also cases when the crucial positions have been used as incentives during political bargaining. A threefold increase in energy demand over the last two decades has been responded to with an ill-proportioned increment at the supply end. Senior WAPDA officials claim that in 2002 the government was officially warned about the approaching electricity crisis and was asked to take immediate measures to enhance generation capacity.

Government gave the blunt gift of inflation. Despite having the treasure of natural energy resources. Relevant ministries and departments should also be overhauled. There is a general observation of 5-10 hours of load shedding. Even the industrial capital of Pakistan (Karachi) is suffering from the same situation. the backbone of the future energy policies would have to be reliance on domestic resources (hydropower. There are three main resources used to fulfill the energy requirements Electricity.2% and according to non-official reports like UN 8. Energy offices should be run by qualified. The prices of essential domestic commodities have touched the psychological boundaries. General public considers the government responsible for this inflation. as electricity is the key material for any production plant. committed and deserving people equipped with due mandate. Decisions on energy projects should revolve around national interest rather than naïve political and personal gains. During five years the prices of red chilli increased by 62. The energy crisis created cost pull inflation in the country.9% rice 69. Pakistan’s energy production plants are not fulfilling the country’s requirements effectively. chicken etc also showed increasing trend of prices.9% and other essential domestic commodities like vegetables. The government offended the masses. unemployment. flour 66.In order to tackle the existing crisis and ensure a prosperous energy future. Industrial and daily life has paralyzed by this energy crisis. One of them is the ever-increasing inflationary pressure on the general public. terrorism and energy crisis to the public.6% World Bank 8. The fixed income employees and creditors are affected by this inflation. This inflationary pressure has psychologically affected the employees and employers. But Pakistan has not enough dams or water to generate electricity. Although the increasing trend in the prices of fuel and other things in the international market is another factor but the standard year is also a factor.7%. but sometimes it hits the level of 18 hours. Our neighboring country India has built a number of Dams to overcome the energy crisis but Pakistan .9% and Asian Development Bank 9. Inflation & Energy Crisis in Pakistan Pakistan is facing a number of constraints in the path of social economic and political development. Some economists argue that such type of increase in prices was never seen before the regime of Musharaf. According to official reports the inflation rate is 7. In 2001 the foreign aid was given to Pakistan therefore low standards were made to measure the inflation rate. WAPDA is just fulfilling the country’s energy need near to 46% the remaining is fulfilled by the alternative expensive resources. The present energy crisis is affecting the economy entirely.2% vegetable oil 120% sugar 30. Why in the era of energy reservation Pakistan is not utilizing its energy resources? Pakistan is just relaying on the electricity production by Dams. coal and solar and wind energy) and energy conservation. This inflationary pressure created a social instability and misconception among the messes towards the Government. Not only these factors caused hyperinflation but also energy crisis played a vital role in this hyper change in the prices of daily use domestic and capital commodities.1%. Fuel and Gas. Some renounced economists argue that the reason of this increasing inflation rate is the standard year 2001 according to which inflation rate is measured. Although WAPADA is enjoying the monopoly but government has to pay 2 rupee/unit as incentive.

the fuel (petrol) prices in international market cross the psychological limits of US $110/beryl recently. The high prices of fuel and electricity created a long-term cost pull inflation (increase in the prices of raw material of one commodity cause high prices of other commodities). despite this Iran is engaged in the attainment of nuclear power generation plant. International community is imposing sanctions on Iran due to uranium enrichment but Iran pays no heed to them. Then why is the Pakistani government reluctant to use its nuclear plants to tackle energy crisis? Secondly. Pakistan has signed a contract with China to generate 300 Megawatts by coal deposits in 2003. Pakistan. As Iran has large treasure of natural energy resources like natural gas and fuel. I think energy crisis is the real cause of this inflationary pressure. but due to some reasons it has not been completed till now. flour. The costly machinery amounted US $9 million is now functionless due to (rust) delay in the construction of Kala Bagh Dam. If the government fails to construct dams for the generation of electricity due to Provincialism government should have to adopt alternative options to accomplish the energy needs of the country. sugar and rice for two years. despite being an atomic power does not think about the nuclear electric generation plant. Industrialists due to high prices of electricity use alternative resources (petrol) in electric generators to fulfill their energy needs but.government has paid no heed on this issue. which is the fifth largest treasure of the world. We are hopeful that new government will take some positive steps to fulfill its promises and public expectations. There are a lot of expectations with the new government as Nawaz Sharif pledged that if he came in rule he will fix the prices of domestic commodities like vegetables oil. Some scientists predicted that in next 10year world has to face the water shortage also. Now the new government should take basic steps to eradicate inflation. Pakistan’s western area especially Thar is enriched by natural coal. Many projects are delayed due to provincialism the glaring example is of Kala Bagh Dam. .

With all known history available. Therefore for larger plants heat recovery system are utilized. In 2nd world war fossils fuels entered in the form of coal to get energy. Once the steam engines were invented then the coal or liquid fuels was burnt in the in boilers and heat producers steam which is used to drive an electrical generators. The major manufacturers and suppliers of gensets based on internal combustion engines are given below  Man  Wartsila  Caterpillar  Jen bacher  Waukesha  Mitsubishi  Detroit diesel  Rolls Royce Internal combustion engines can obtain 30-50% thermal efficiency. Rudolph diesel invention of diesel engine revolution the energy concept and today we see sine the majority of machine moving on diesel engines. The choice of gensets strictly depends on the requirement of client. before ordering a power plant following points to be considered  Expected demand of the power  Type of fuel required  Space available for the power plant  Availability of gun sets  Availability of local service back up and stock of parts  Price is paramount importance and hidden expenses should be locked carefully. Until liquid fuels were discovered and because of their convinces of transportation they took over as major of energy source. wood always used for heating and cooking. cooling system and radiations. It means that around 50% energy is wasted in the form of exhaust gases.Thermal energy Thermal energy is the thermal type of energy. or any other mechanical devices. .

limited production of oil and gas. All oil-consuming countries. Coupled with that. particularly the third world countries have suffered due to the consistently rising demand-driven cost of energy. According to the PPIB website. especially in China. could rise by more than 50 percent in the next few years.457 mwh. If Pakistan chooses to rely on fossil fuel to generate electricity it would be a constant burden on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Even the conversion of cement industry to use coal did not help much as the required quantity was being imported from Indonesia and some other countries. Pakistan is one of the country’s worst hit by the rise in price of energy. and for the first time in October 2004. The oil industry has been plagued by two main deficiencies which is a drop in exploration activity following the economic slowdown of the mid-1990s. oil prices crossed the benchmark of US$ 50 per barrel. This brings us to the shortage being faced in supply of electricity for domestic and industrial purposes (In figures I and II below the position of domestic demand and supply for electrical energy is highlighted). during 2008 Pakistan would be short of electricity supply to the tune of 1. our exportable surplus would become progressively more uncompetitive and goods for local consumption would become costlier. the global refining capacity did not keep pace with the rise in demand by developing countries. It is therefore imperative that Pakistan finds workable remedies to the looming energy crises and remedies are found with practical solutions to facing up to the problems arising out of growing population and the growing energy needs to support reasonable GDP growth. India and the Far East beginning 2000. from where they stand now. both OPEC and the vertically integrated oil industry have displayed no interest in increasing the output. the planned and projected growth in GDP appears highly unlikely. Given this supply shortfall. For the last 10 years Pakistan has been importing crude oil and refined petroleum products to generate electricity. besides meeting the increasing demands of its expanding transport sector. and due to continuously increasing price of oil. which needs additional investment in exploration and at last 4 to 5 years to build additional refining capacity. This may result in closure/ bankruptcy of some industries and the country could face some economic weaknesses. particularly the third world have suffered due to the consistently rising demand-driven cost of energy From 2004 onwards. and few choices for plugging this gap with indigenous energy resources. The domestic energy generation sources are restricted to hydropower. . For the past few days it has been hovering at US$ 103 plus per barrel. Yet. and negligible use of coal as the input for power generation. the price of oil started soaring in the international market. The cost of power on this scale would be difficult to manage by most emerging economies All oil-consuming countries. It continued to fluctuate but kept moving up each year and in 2007 briefly crossed US$ 100 per barrel.The looming energy crisis in Pakistan Energy costs.

Solar energy: At present. Natural gas exploration: Pakistan still has huge untapped gas reserves. 5. is the law and order situation in most of the areas where gas finds can be a possibility. Natural gas import: The IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project is also a long story (global political situation is not being discussed for obvious reasons) but the current plan to lay the 54 inch pipeline through the coastal area has a major flaw. 4. which is dependent on steam generation through oil or gas-fired boilers.e. Nuclear power is safe. except for low-ampere domestic use. economical and environment-friendly. Even if Pakistan starts building the pipeline on priority basis. and is being operated and maintained by Pakistani scientists and engineers. delivering full power of 300 mw to the national grid. Pakistan is the only country in the Muslim World operating nuclear power plants. since the cost of exploration has gone up substantially and current well head prices do not justify further investment at the current rate of return. Nuclear energy: KANUPP was established with the help of the Canadian Government in the 1960’s and nearing end of its lifecycle. which is again a drain on Pakistan’s scarce foreign exchange reserves. The current gas prices and the limits they place on increasing the profitability of this sector would not attract any reasonable amount of investment. which would continue to haunt us. There is a simple way of harnessing this energy for the industry. Coal: Pakistan has enormous coal reserves (probably the third largest in the world) that remain untapped and even the industries that have converted from gas to coal as their energy source have to import coal mostly from Indonesia. solar energy is a distant possibility. though negligible. The other factor discouraging exploration of new gas reserves. whether local or foreign. If we allocate more resources to their exploration there is a possibility that in the near future part of the energy resource gap may be met from new reserves. With the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant also operational since 1971. by 2013). it may take 5 years to complete the project (i. . Water can be pre-heated by converging sun rays on tanks made of metals/alloys that can easily absorb the heat. and it may plug the energy gap only thereafter. 3. The “Chashma Nuclear Power Plant” has been designed and built in collaboration with People’s Republic of China. although in a country like Pakistan where clouds are a rarity for most part of the year it could be a workable option.Alternate Energy Resources & their Solution 1. This preheating can reduce the cost of producing steam and reduce the energy resource gap to an extent. 2.

To install this initially expensive but eventually very economical technology. Two corridors have been identified in Sindh. Although the cost of equipment and know how is high. probably. and the energy production process does not pollute the environment. If Pakistan can replicate the sophisticated machinery and equipment for uranium enrichment and also can produce or cause to be produced very high RPM centrifuges. in the first instance Pakistan may start importing and installing the equipment to generate electricity but in the long run it must encourage domestic production of the equipment. and after a number of years. especially steel and its products. the price of equipment required for wind power has also increased manifold. Wind energy: The government is following a policy to encourage investment in wind energy. Pakistan can also enter into technology transfer agreements with foreign manufacturers. . vacuum valves and allied equipment then. In this regard. the demand of wind power equipment has also grown manifold. and as cost of energy derived from fossil fuels has increased two-fold during the last three years. electricity generated by this technology would become the cheapest compared to alternate sources of energy at that point of time. and land has been allocated to various wind energy projects. demand for energy has been growing globally. the world over. The considerations that place wind energy on top of the list is mainly due to the fact that generating energy using this technology requires no fuel. then it also has the capacity to produce equipment for wind power. the advantages of wind power are quantifiable.6. machinery. Propelled by GDP growth needs. electric circuits.   Due to growth in demand and increase in the cost of metals. The issues confronting the wind power sector are as under:  Scarcity of equipment: wind power equipment is in short supply.

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