Mlgrauon and CllmaLe Change

Þamela McLlwee,
AsslsLanL Þrofessor, ueparLmenL of Puman
8uLgers, 1he SLaLe unlverslLy of new !ersey
8ecenL CllmaLe LvenLs
•  lloods ln Mozamblque: 300,000 dlsplaced from 2001-8
•  lloods ln ÞaklsLan, 2010: 6 mllllon dlsplaced
•  uroughLs ln Syrla, 2009: more Lhan 100,000 mlgranLs
•  Purrlcane kaLrlna, 2003: 1 mllllon dlsplaced, only 80°
•  Cyclone nargls ln 8urma/lndla, 2008: 800,000
•  Þaclñc nauons, 2012: 103,000 resldenLs of klrlbau
seeklng new home from sea level rlse
Pow many cllmaLe mlgranLs?
•  Many ñgures have been suggesLed - up Lo 130 Lo 700 mllllon refugees by
end of 21
•  8uL Lhese ñgures were conLroverslal, because Lhey were noL based on real
undersLandlng of conLemporary human mlgrauon.
•  unlLed nauons Cmce for Lhe Coordlnauon of PumanlLarlan Añalrs and Lhe
lnLernal ulsplacemenL MonlLorlng CenLre esumaLed LhaL ~ 20 mllllon
people dlsplaced or evacuaLed ln 2008 because of rapld onseL cllmaLe-
relaLed dlsasLers. MosL of Lhese people dld noL permanenLly mlgraLe,
however. (unCCPA, 2009, ºMonlLorlng dlsasLer dlsplacemenL ln Lhe conLexL of cllmaLe
•  uesplLe an lncrease ln Lhe number of dlsasLers beLween 1990 and 2009,
Lhe lnLernauonal Crganlzauon on Mlgrauon reporLs no ma[or lmpacL on
lnLernauonal mlgraLory ßows because dlsplacemenL ls Lemporary and
oûen conñned wlLhln a reglon, and dlsplaced lndlvlduals oûen do noL
possess Lhe ñnanclal resources Lo mlgraLe (lÞCC, S8Lx, 2012)
Ma[or LnvlronmenLal urlvers of
•  lloods and sLorms
•  uroughLs
•  Sea level rlse (Lhe only permanenL drlver, Lhe
oLhers are Lemporary and cycllcal).
•  !""#$%#&'()(#*+(#",-(".#&$#/(#(0*1(+/*&(2#,3#
%4&4+(#24(#&$#1",5*&(#1'*36(#7#lÞCC, 2012,
Speclal 8eporL on CllmaLe LxLremes (S8Lx).
llood Lxposure
Source: lÞCC, 2012, S8Lx, Ch. 4
uroughL Lxposure
Source: lÞCC, 2012, S8Lx, Ch. 4
Sea level rlse (SL8) Lxposure
Source: lÞCC, 2012, S8Lx, Ch. 4
SL8 ln SL Asla
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln Amazon 8asln
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln MedlLerranean
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln SouLh Asla
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln Lurope
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln SL uSA
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
new ?ork ClLy
Source: hup://
3 û/.9 m SL8
Source: hup://
3 û/ 1.3m SL8
Source: hup://
vulnerablllLy, noL !usL Lxposure,
SLrongly lnßuences Mlgrauon
•  º1he severlLy of Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe exLremes
depends sLrongly on Lhe level of Lhe exposure
and vulnerablllLy Lo Lhese exLremes" - lÞCC,
S8Lx, 2012
•  MlgraLory movemenL ls Lhe producL of muluple
converglng facLors, noL [usL one.
•  LnvlronmenLal degradauon does noL
*4&$5*81*"". lead Lo dlsplacemenL. ln facL, lL
may creaLe condluons ln whlch people are unable
Lo move.
llgure SÞM.1, lÞCC, 2012: Summary for Þollcymakers. ln: 9*3*6,36#&'(#:,)-)#$%#;0&+(5(#
1ypes of MlgranLs
•  ShorL Lerm vs. permanenL
•  lnLernal vs. lnLernauonal (shorL vs. long
•  volunLary vs. forced mlgrauon
•  lndlvldual vs. household mlgrauon
Mlgrauon ueclslons are Complex
Source: loreslghL: 9,6+*8$3#*32#@"$/*"#;3<,+$35(3&*"#>'*36(#(2011)
llnal Þro[ecL 8eporL, 1he CovernmenL Cmce for Sclence, London
Consequences of ulsplacemenL
•  LlghL baslc rlsks Lo whlch people are sub[ecLed by
–  landlessness
–  [oblessness
–  homelessness
–  marglnallzauon
–  food lnsecurlLy
–  lncreased morbldlLy
–  loss of access Lo common properLy resources
–  soclal dlsaruculauon
Source: lmpoverlshmenL 8lsks and 8econsLrucuon Approach deslgned by M. Cernea of
World 8ank
Source: CA8L, 2009, ln Search of ShelLer
Should Lhey be 'refugees'?
•  Some refer Lo envlronmenLal or cllmaLe ºrefugees"
•  8uL word ºrefugee" has a speclñc legal meanlng ln Lhe
conLexL of Lhe 1931 Ceneva Convenuon 8elaung Lo Lhe
SLaLus of 8efugees: any person who ls ouLslde Lhelr counLry
of nauonallLy and who, ºowlng Lo a well-founded fear of
belng persecuLed" ls unable or unwllllng Lo reLurn Lo Lhelr
•  Some llLeraLure proposes Lhe expanslon of 'persecuLed' Lo
encompass belng sub[ecL Lo envlronmenLal dlsasLer or
•  CLhers say refugee should be reserved for pollucal/soclal
refugees and use ºenvlronmenLal mlgranLs" and
ºenvlronmenLally mouvaLed mlgranLs" lnsLead.
lnLernauonal Crganlzauon for Mlgrauon, 2008, ºMlgrauon and CllmaLe Change".
Mlgrauon as AdapLauon
•  Mlgrauon away from hlgh-hazard areas can reduce
exposure and Lhe chance of dlsasLer.
•  ln Lhls way, mlgrauon can be a form of posluve
adapLauon Lo lncreaslng rlsk
•  WlLhouL some mlgrauon, ºAn emphasls on rapldly
rebulldlng houses, reconsLrucung lnfrasLrucLure, and
rehablllLaung llvellhoods oûen leads Lo recoverlng ln
ways LhaL recreaLe or even lncrease exlsung
vulnerablllues, and LhaL preclude longer-Lerm plannlng
and pollcy changes for enhanclng reslllence and
susLalnable developmenL" lÞCC, S8Lx. Ch 3, p 293
Source: CA8L, 2009, ln Search of ShelLer
Lessons from oLher dlsplacemenL
•  1) Lhe communlLy Lo be relocaLed should be
•  2) all poLenual relocaLees should be lnvolved ln
Lhe relocauon declslon-maklng process,
•  3) cluzens musL undersLand Lhe mulu-
organlzauonal conLexL ln whlch Lhe relocauon ls
Lo be conducLed,
•  4) speclal auenuon should be glven Lo Lhe soclal
and personal needs of Lhe relocaLees, and
•  3) soclal neLworks need Lo be preserved.
Source: Þerry and Llndall, 1997, ºÞrlnclples for Managlng CommunlLy 8elocauon as a
Pazard Mlugauon Measure", A$4+3*"#$%#>$3836(31,()#*32#>+,),)#9*3*6(5(3&.
Þollcy responses
•  Should greenhouse gas emluers accepL an
allocauon of 'cllmaLe mlgranLs' ln proporuon
Lo Lhelr hlsLorlc emlsslons, ln Lhe name of
•  Pow Lo encourage mlgrauon as posluve
adapLauon lnsLead of LhreaL?
•  Pow Lo encourage more reslllenL developmenL
golng forward?
lor furLher readlng
•  CA8L lnLernauonal, 2009. B3#C(*+1'#$%#C'("&(+D#9*??,36#&'(#
•  ÞlgueL, L eL al. 2011. 9,6+*8$3#*32#>",5*&(#>'*36(.
Cambrldge unlverslLy Þress.
•  lnLergovernmenLal Þanel on CllmaLe Change. 2012.
•  H$+(),6'&D#9,6+*8$3#*32#@"$/*"#;3<,+$35(3&*"#>'*36(G#
2011. llnal Þro[ecL 8eporL, 1he CovernmenL Cmce for
Sclence, London.
•  Leckle, S. eL al. 2012. >",5*&(#>'*36(#*32#=,)?"*1(5(3&#
:(*2(+. London: LarLhscan.