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Mlgrauon and CllmaLe Change

amela McLlwee,
AsslsLanL rofessor, ueparLmenL of Puman
Lcology
8uLgers, 1he SLaLe unlverslLy of new !ersey
8ecenL CllmaLe LvenLs
lloods ln Mozamblque: 300,000 dlsplaced from 2001-8
lloods ln aklsLan, 2010: 6 mllllon dlsplaced
uroughLs ln Syrla, 2009: more Lhan 100,000 mlgranLs
Purrlcane kaLrlna, 2003: 1 mllllon dlsplaced, only 80
reLurned
Cyclone nargls ln 8urma/lndla, 2008: 800,000
dlsplaced
aclc nauons, 2012: 103,000 resldenLs of klrlbau
seeklng new home from sea level rlse
Pow many cllmaLe mlgranLs?
Many gures have been suggesLed - up Lo 130 Lo 700 mllllon refugees by
end of 21
sL
cenLury.
8uL Lhese gures were conLroverslal, because Lhey were noL based on real
undersLandlng of conLemporary human mlgrauon.
unlLed nauons Cmce for Lhe Coordlnauon of PumanlLarlan Aalrs and Lhe
lnLernal ulsplacemenL MonlLorlng CenLre esumaLed LhaL ~ 20 mllllon
people dlsplaced or evacuaLed ln 2008 because of rapld onseL cllmaLe-
relaLed dlsasLers. MosL of Lhese people dld noL permanenLly mlgraLe,
however. (unCCPA, 2009, MonlLorlng dlsasLer dlsplacemenL ln Lhe conLexL of cllmaLe
change")
uesplLe an lncrease ln Lhe number of dlsasLers beLween 1990 and 2009,
Lhe lnLernauonal Crganlzauon on Mlgrauon reporLs no ma[or lmpacL on
lnLernauonal mlgraLory ows because dlsplacemenL ls Lemporary and
oen conned wlLhln a reglon, and dlsplaced lndlvlduals oen do noL
possess Lhe nanclal resources Lo mlgraLe (lCC, S8Lx, 2012)
Ma[or LnvlronmenLal urlvers of
Mlgrauon
lloods and sLorms
uroughLs
Sea level rlse (Lhe only permanenL drlver, Lhe
oLhers are Lemporary and cycllcal).
!""#$%#&'()(#*+(#",-(".#&$#/(#(0*1(+/*&(2#,3#
%4&4+(#24(#&$#1",5*&(#1'*36(#7#lCC, 2012,
Speclal 8eporL on CllmaLe LxLremes (S8Lx).
llood Lxposure
Source: lCC, 2012, S8Lx, Ch. 4
uroughL Lxposure
Source: lCC, 2012, S8Lx, Ch. 4
Sea level rlse (SL8) Lxposure
Source: lCC, 2012, S8Lx, Ch. 4
SL8 ln SL Asla
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln Amazon 8asln
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln MedlLerranean
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln SouLh Asla
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln Lurope
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
SL8 ln SL uSA
Source: CenLer for 8emoLe Senslng of lce SheeLs, unlverslLy of kansas
new ?ork ClLy
Source: hup://archlLecLure2030.org/slr
3 /.9 m SL8
Source: hup://archlLecLure2030.org/slr
3 / 1.3m SL8
Source: hup://archlLecLure2030.org/slr
vulnerablllLy, noL !usL Lxposure,
SLrongly lnuences Mlgrauon
1he severlLy of Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe exLremes
depends sLrongly on Lhe level of Lhe exposure
and vulnerablllLy Lo Lhese exLremes" - lCC,
S8Lx, 2012
MlgraLory movemenL ls Lhe producL of muluple
converglng facLors, noL [usL one.
LnvlronmenLal degradauon does noL
*4&$5*81*"". lead Lo dlsplacemenL. ln facL, lL
may creaLe condluons ln whlch people are unable
Lo move.
llgure SM.1, lCC, 2012: Summary for ollcymakers. ln: 9*3*6,36#&'(#:,)-)#$%#;0&+(5(#
;<(3&)#*32#=,)*)&(+)#&$#!2<*31(#>",5*&(#>'*36(#!2*?&*8$3#
1ypes of MlgranLs
ShorL Lerm vs. permanenL
lnLernal vs. lnLernauonal (shorL vs. long
dlsLance)
volunLary vs. forced mlgrauon
lndlvldual vs. household mlgrauon
Mlgrauon ueclslons are Complex
Source: loreslghL: 9,6+*8$3#*32#@"$/*"#;3<,+$35(3&*"#>'*36(#(2011)
llnal ro[ecL 8eporL, 1he CovernmenL Cmce for Sclence, London
Consequences of ulsplacemenL
LlghL baslc rlsks Lo whlch people are sub[ecLed by
dlsplacemenL:
landlessness
[oblessness
homelessness
marglnallzauon
food lnsecurlLy
lncreased morbldlLy
loss of access Lo common properLy resources
soclal dlsaruculauon
Source: lmpoverlshmenL 8lsks and 8econsLrucuon Approach deslgned by M. Cernea of
World 8ank
Source: CA8L, 2009, ln Search of ShelLer
Should Lhey be 'refugees'?
Some refer Lo envlronmenLal or cllmaLe refugees"
8uL word refugee" has a speclc legal meanlng ln Lhe
conLexL of Lhe 1931 Ceneva Convenuon 8elaung Lo Lhe
SLaLus of 8efugees: any person who ls ouLslde Lhelr counLry
of nauonallLy and who, owlng Lo a well-founded fear of
belng persecuLed" ls unable or unwllllng Lo reLurn Lo Lhelr
counLry.
Some llLeraLure proposes Lhe expanslon of 'persecuLed' Lo
encompass belng sub[ecL Lo envlronmenLal dlsasLer or
degradauon
CLhers say refugee should be reserved for pollucal/soclal
refugees and use envlronmenLal mlgranLs" and
envlronmenLally mouvaLed mlgranLs" lnsLead.
lnLernauonal Crganlzauon for Mlgrauon, 2008, Mlgrauon and CllmaLe Change".
Mlgrauon as AdapLauon
Mlgrauon away from hlgh-hazard areas can reduce
exposure and Lhe chance of dlsasLer.
ln Lhls way, mlgrauon can be a form of posluve
adapLauon Lo lncreaslng rlsk
WlLhouL some mlgrauon, An emphasls on rapldly
rebulldlng houses, reconsLrucung lnfrasLrucLure, and
rehablllLaung llvellhoods oen leads Lo recoverlng ln
ways LhaL recreaLe or even lncrease exlsung
vulnerablllues, and LhaL preclude longer-Lerm plannlng
and pollcy changes for enhanclng reslllence and
susLalnable developmenL" lCC, S8Lx. Ch 3, p 293
Source: CA8L, 2009, ln Search of ShelLer
Lessons from oLher dlsplacemenL
1) Lhe communlLy Lo be relocaLed should be
organlzed,
2) all poLenual relocaLees should be lnvolved ln
Lhe relocauon declslon-maklng process,
3) cluzens musL undersLand Lhe mulu-
organlzauonal conLexL ln whlch Lhe relocauon ls
Lo be conducLed,
4) speclal auenuon should be glven Lo Lhe soclal
and personal needs of Lhe relocaLees, and
3) soclal neLworks need Lo be preserved.
Source: erry and Llndall, 1997, rlnclples for Managlng CommunlLy 8elocauon as a
Pazard Mlugauon Measure", A$4+3*"#$%#>$3836(31,()#*32#>+,),)#9*3*6(5(3&.
ollcy responses
Should greenhouse gas emluers accepL an
allocauon of 'cllmaLe mlgranLs' ln proporuon
Lo Lhelr hlsLorlc emlsslons, ln Lhe name of
[usuce?
Pow Lo encourage mlgrauon as posluve
adapLauon lnsLead of LhreaL?
Pow Lo encourage more reslllenL developmenL
golng forward?
lor furLher readlng
CA8L lnLernauonal, 2009. B3#C(*+1'#$%#C'("&(+D#9*??,36#&'(#
;E(1&)#$%#>",5*&(#>'*36(#$3#F45*3#9,6+*8$3#*32#
=,)?"*1(5(3&#
lgueL, L eL al. 2011. 9,6+*8$3#*32#>",5*&(#>'*36(.
Cambrldge unlverslLy ress.
lnLergovernmenLal anel on CllmaLe Change. 2012.
9*3*6,36#&'(#:,)-)#$%#;0&+(5(#;<(3&)#*32#=,)*)&(+)#&$#
!2<*31(#>",5*&(#>'*36(#!2*?&*8$3G##
H$+(),6'&D#9,6+*8$3#*32#@"$/*"#;3<,+$35(3&*"#>'*36(G#
2011. llnal ro[ecL 8eporL, 1he CovernmenL Cmce for
Sclence, London.
Leckle, S. eL al. 2012. >",5*&(#>'*36(#*32#=,)?"*1(5(3&#
:(*2(+. London: LarLhscan.