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Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E

16/2/12

Mathematics

How does the amount of daylight change? Part A

Explain how you will choose the data points, giving reasons.

  • I am choosing my data by selecting 2 days per month. There are 12 months in a year, and that will give me 24

sets of data which I believe is enough to show the form of what my graph is going to look like. The 2 days that

are selected are always the first day and the mid-point day, (if the month has 31 days then day 15 will be chosen) in order to create a constant distance between the x-axis of data and making the graph easier to read.

What type of graph would best fit the data points? Explain why.

The graph most suitable would be a scatter graph. A scatter graph shows me the points of data in a way that they FORM up together, not how they compare against each other in value. The point of this graph is for me to be able to see a trend of daylight over the year, not what proportion there is. The graph is also not likely to be a straight line, so the line graph was not chosen. Therefore, for all these reasons, the scatter graph is most suitable.

Write down a general form of the function you will use to graph the data.

The formula would be To clarify:

[

(

)]

.

y= minutes of daylight for each day A is the Amplitude

B is the wavelength or period per cycle

  • C is the position on the y-axis (minutes of daylight for each day)

  • D is the position on the x-axis (day of the year)

Is your graph a symmetrical, smooth curve? Explain, giving reasons.

My graph was generally smooth throughout, and almost symmetrical. I believe that this is due to the amount of plot points in the graph; it was enough to give a visual representation that is smooth. It is near symmetrical as data had been chosen at constant points and the graph itself is a curve, therefore allows for points on the graph to be evenly spaced and create a near symmetrical form.

How well do you think your graph fits the data points? Give reasons for your answer.

The graph fits and represents the data points quiet well. This is as the axis was made detailed enough so that the data points is not far from a fit their real coordinates on the graph. The axis is also proportionally correct meaning that there is no alteration to the distance between each of each data point.

How could you improve the ‘accuracy’ of the graph? Explain and then make the changes.

To improve accuracy, the scale of the axis on the graph needs to be enlarged greatly. This is so that data placement becomes easier and more likely to be on the correct spot. Another way to improve is to add more data points selected. This is so that more data allows for a confirmation that what is here is accurate, and there are no anomalies unmentioned or not shown by the graph with only 24 data points.

How your changes could affect the ‘accuracy’ of your graph?

The graph would increase in accuracy. The data points would almost ‘connect’, allowing for a better visual not

filled with gaps. It means that we can make sure that the data indeed does show this trend. Enlarging the graph so that the data points are placed in the correct spot will help confirm that this is true. It is as the data becomes closer to where it is supposed to be in relation to the axis and other data points.

Explain your steps.

(See attached sheet with graph for original, this is the one for the corrected function)

  • 1. Firstly, find if the equation is sin or cos. Since the equation starts off by going upwards along the y- axis, this means that the equation is a sin equation as this is the characteristic of this equation.

  • 2. Find A, or amplitude. This can be found using the formula:

  • 3. Find B, by using the formula:

(

)

(

)

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E

16/2/12

Mathematics

P stands for period. In usual circumstances, P can be found by calculating the distance between 2 peaks. Therefore, the formula is:

  • 4. C is found using the formula:

(

)

(

)

This is as it is the midpoint (equilibrium on the y axis, so we must add the maximum and minimum together then halve that value

  • 5. D can be found by drawing out C as a line across the x-axis on the graph, then finding the point where the ‘curve’ on the graph first meets the line. This is as D shifts the position on the x-axis, the graph starts at 1 and not 0, so D must be present.

What assumptions/decisions have you made in order to find the values in your function? How do you think they will affect your model?

An assumption was made that all the data selected (25) would represent the whole set of data. A lot of values in the function required calculations from data that were from maximum and minimum (step 2, 3 and 4). Since the data selected is only a representation and not all of the data, the real maximum and minimum points were not used to calculate. This may have affected the model by making it less accurate.

Show your method clearly.

See paper although method there is wrong. Firstly, the value for A needs to be divided by 2.B is also 360/366 as I have misunderstood and doubled the period. Also, D was rushed as time ran out. The correct way to find D is in the explain your steps part above. The value of D is 90.

Write down the equation of the function you used to model the data. You will need it in Part B when you will use technology to find a more accurate model.

48.5sin(0.98(x-90))+727.5(This is the correct equation. The original equation is on the paper)

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E

16/2/12

Mathematics

How does the amount of daylight change? Part B

Before you begin to use technology to model the data:

Write a short hypothesis which explains how well you think your function will fit the data. Give reasons.

I believe that the function (one I have corrected), will fit the data quite well. This is as I have realized from my mistake, and used standardized equations taught in order to find the values for A, B, C and D. I think that I have selected the correct data to calculate the values, therefore leading to an accurate function. Although the function was made my representative data (25 from the whole set), it should be accurate enough to be able to see a fit.

Criterion D

Your teacher has sent you an electronic copy of the daylight data for the year 2012. Unfortunately, the data that has been sent only gives the times of each daily sunrise and sunset for the year 2012. Clearly, you will have to convert the data into minutes so that it matches with your hand-drawn graph.

Show how you converted the data into minutes of daylight.

Correct data has been given

Use the data, and technology of your choice, to plot the points onto an electronic graph.

What technology did you choose to use?

Why did you choose this technology and not a different one?

The technology I chose to plot my points with was Autograph. I chose this technology as autograph is easy to maneuver, in terms of placing in an equation and also viewing the whole form of the data points in relation to the equation. It allows me to show what my data is, and compare it to the equation easily. This will not work on excel (I am not really sure if there is a way), and I do not know how to use other programs.

Criterion D On the same axes, enter your function (found in Part A) and draw its graph.

With reference to your hypothesis in question 1 (above):

Comment upon how well your function fits the original data. You will need to

decide what qualifies as a "good fit". Is being within 6 minutes good enough, or is being within 10 seconds necessary? Give reasons for your choice. (Hint: Being more than 1 hour away from the data points isn't "close enough"). Does your model fit the data throughout the year, or are some parts better than others. Explain.

The graph is on the page below. I have plotted functions, my original and the one I have corrected. The original function is in blue, while the corrected one is in purple.

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E

16/2/12

Mathematics

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E 16/2/12 Mathematics As you can see, my original equation is way off, high

As you can see, my original equation is way off, high above the actual data points. This is as my translation along the x-axis was completely off, making it seem rise and fall inaccurately. Also, as the B value was twice the actual amount, the amplitude of the function became twice as much. Therefore, this function isn’t anywhere near accurate or a ‘fit’ to the real data. As for the corrected function, I believe that it is a near-good ‘fit’, although not perfect. Since it has been corrected, values were chosen better and calculations were done correctly leading to the graph to represent the general form of the real data. It is not perfect, as this is only representative data and the function created ‘assumes’ a lot of things as explained in part A. What makes it qualify as a near-good ‘fit’ is the fact that the maximum the data was off by was around 20 minutes. All of the data stayed within this range. Remembering that this is only a representative value, it is impossible for the function to fit completely. Therefore, it is passable for a near-good fit within 20 minutes. However, it is not close enough to be a ‘good’ fit as for people who need more accurate functions, it should be within 5 minutes. For students who are just studying functions 20 minutes is difference is fine to conclude that the function represents a representative data as near-good ‘fit’. Something to notice is that the points

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E

16/2/12

Mathematics

which fit the least are the points which are not the peak or trough of the function. This is due to the translation of the x-value (value for D). It may be off a little, and may need to be edited in order for these values and the function to fit together better.

Criterion B

Use the tools provided in your chosen technology to amend your original model so that it fits

the data better.

Explain the changes you make to the parameters a, b, c and d in your function and provide evidence in the form of screen shots.

Remembering that less negative D shifts it more to the left, I changed D from 90 to 80, which did fit it better.

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E 16/2/12 Mathematics which fit the least are the points which are not the

Although it is not exactly clear here, you can see that more points lie on the line of the function once D has been increased from -90 to -80.

Criterion D

Nopakit Lerthirunvibul 11E

16/2/12

Mathematics

At some point (as in all works of art!) you will have to stop changing the parameters

and be ‘happy’ with your final model. Explain why you are ‘happy’ with your final model.

I am now ‘happy’ with my final model, as the greatest ‘off’ point was only 3 minutes. I would want to try to make it more accurate than that, but this is within 5 minutes and is very good. As I mentioned, being within 5 minutes shows a good ‘fit’. Also, if I keep shifting D, the whole function will shift and may result in a shift AWAY from the data points. This is as I have to keep in mind that this is only representative data, and that there can be anomalies as data was only collected for 1 year. This is not enough to actually conclude that my graph is inaccurate so therefore, I am happy with it.

Criterion D

Why do you think humans need to be able to use mathematical models in this

way? What could the models be used for?

We need to use mathematical models in this way as a way for us to predict general patterns of things in life. Therefore, we would be able to see trends and be able to create actions and preparation that is oriented in using or handling these trends. Different people with different jobs use mathematical models such as this one. Weather forecasters need such a mathematical model to create the most accurate guess for the amount of sunlight as possible, using the mathematical model. As you can see, it proves to be quite accurate (for this year when comparing the function to real data).Businesses may need to use mathematical models to predict their income, amount of customers and many different things. With this, they can prepare the best-fit amount of supply to suite the demand, and prepare for when there are going to be many customers at once. As I stated, management all comes from being able to use models which give us the general or in some cases, very accurate fits of trends or data that we can use to our advantage.