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The Demographic Impact and Consequences for the Health of Women of the Abortion Laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968
by Patrick Carroll
The demographic Impact and Consequences for the Health of women of the Abortion Laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 Patrick Carroll
Published by PAPrI registered charity number 327942 in england Address PAPrI (Pension and Population research Institute) 35 Canonbury road London N1 2dG tel: +44 (0)20 7354 5667 Fax: +44 (0)20 7226 6601 email: firstname.lastname@example.org
ISBN 0-9514532-3-8 December 2011
Publication accessible on the web site of the publishers www.papriresearch.org and http://home.btconnect.com/papri
of national and regional policy to restrict termination of pregnancies. Calhoun. stillbirth rates. Public health officials and legislators responsible for shaping national and regional policies for women’s health must seriously engage the questions raised by the PAPrI report for the need to restrict and monitor termination of pregnancies. Byron C. The study provides an in-depth ecological analysis that constitutes a unique insight into the effects. or lack thereof. medication usage for mental health. Md. breast cancer rates.4 Foreword The analysis by Patrick Carroll at PAPrI compares available statistical data on abortions carried out on women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland over the epoch1968-2010 with the corresponding data for Britain with regard to the demographic characteristics of the various parts of the two islands and discusses the implications for the health of women. Charleston Irelands_Gain. The discussion of premature birth rates.indd 4 09/12/2011 08:46 . mental health resource usage. and immunological disorders all point to an urgent need to examine more fully the impact of liberalization of abortion laws and their adverse impact on women’s health. FACoG. MBA Professor & Vice-Chair Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology West Virginia University. FACS.
there has been. carried out on women who have had no previous full term pregnancy. low weight births whether in singleton or multiple births. The late age of women giving birth for the first time in Ireland and Northern Ireland. ACKNowLedGeMeNtS Particular thanks are due to the Central Statistics office Ireland and office of National Statistics (UK) that have supplied the data.e. however. to which low abortion rates have contributed. today birth rates on the island of Ireland are near to replacement level and the island benefits from a more youthful demographic profile with less dependence on immigration than other european countries. Ireland and Northern Ireland also benefits from low incidence of breast cancer and comparatively good mental health among women and a low incidence of certain diseases of the immune system. such as large families for married couples in Ireland. distinct traditional features of demography on the island of Ireland are still apparent. and some in the Netherlands. there are rather few studies of the demographic impact and of the impact on the health of women. Since the Britain’s 1967 Abortion Act was passed in westminster. 2. Liberalisation of abortion laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland can be expected to result in higher abortion rates and a corresponding deterioration in respect of these conditions affecting the health of women. an accumulation of UK data. Ireland and Northern Ireland show a low incidence of maternal and infant conditions known to be abortion sequelae: still births. Irelands_Gain. SUMMArY 1. 3. Liberalisation of abortion laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland would result in a less youthful demographic profile with a smaller native population as illustrated for Northern Ireland in the period since 1968 and in Ireland for future years.indd 5 09/12/2011 08:46 . But these abortions are comparatively rare. Most abortions among women resident on the island are nulliparous. preterm or premature births. by the UK office for National Statistics. in conjunction with higher parity progression on the island. and prior to 2002. cerebral palsy and maternal deaths. Computing has been done by Alexandre Paul. explains a high proportion of abortions among women resident on the island being nulliparous i. restrictive laws on abortion have enabled the birth rate in Ireland and Northern Ireland to remain much higher than the european average. This study avails of data supplied by the department of Health in London. small numbers in Scotland. who carried out the demographic work on population projections for the island of Ireland.Ireland’s Gain 5 PreFACe whereas the scale of legally induced abortion in the developed countries of the world is large and many women have been affected by its consequences. Sudhakar Brodie and tejas dhokalia. in respect of women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland coming to england and wales for abortions since 1968. 4. and therefore especially damaging to their health. Most abortions among women from the island of Ireland are believed to take place in england and wales but there is also reported some abortions taking place in Northern Ireland. notwithstanding the late age of childbearing in the island as a whole and the general trend to smaller families everywhere.
indd 6 09/12/2011 08:46 . Chapter 6. Irelands_Gain.6 CoNteNtS Chapter 1 demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 Mental Health of women in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 Breast Cancer diseases of the Immune System 7 Chapter 2 16 Chapter 3 20 23 25 28 Chapter 4 Chapter 5.
Legally Induced Abortions within Northern Ireland are reported in Sexual Health Information by the department of Health. having abortions in Scotland. these are also estimated for single year of age by spreading within 5-yearl age groups assuming the same distribution patterns as for Ireland. computed in the same way as total Fertility rates. Legally Induced Abortions became available to women in Ireland and Northern Ireland who travelled to Britain after April 1968 for an abortion. and within Northern Ireland. Also to be counted are the numbers (assumed to be from Ireland) of women in recent years having Legally Induced Abortions in the Netherlands and the numbers.indd 7 09/12/2011 08:46 . gives the numbers for age groups of women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Social Services and Public Safety in Northern Ireland . totals of all ages from 15 to 45 then produce total Abortion rates or tArs. Irelands_Gain. within Ireland and Northern Ireland older restrictive laws on abortion remain in force. table 1 shows the trend in these numbers since 1968. for the period shown in Figure 1. These tArs incorporate a proportionate allowance for abortions known to have taken place in Scotland and the Netherlands. we can compute age-specific Abortion rates for Ireland and for Northern Ireland. where a continuing pregnancy would have “a severe effect” on the health of the woman. fewer than 100 per year in hospitals in Northern Ireland.Ireland’s Gain 7 CHAPter 1 demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 due to the 1967 Abortion Act in Britain. Abortion Statistics  for england & wales. from Northern Ireland and Ireland. There are some induced abortions. where the numbers are smaller and supplied by 5-yearl age groups. Table 1 Numbers of Legally Induced Abortions by Location for Women resident on the island of Ireland Year 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Eng & Wales 666 3585 4168 6655 4411 4379 Ireland Netherlands 134 31 Scotland 1 3 2 1 1 Eng & Wales 558 1432 1775 1574 1125 1082 Northern Ireland N. Numbers of induced abortions within Ireland are not reported and assumed to be zero. Ireland 75 71 74 Scotland 2 3 3 2 2 By using the english and welsh data  for single year of age with the numbers at each age as numerators and with the corresponding mid-year female population as denominators. and no recorded abortions in hospitals in Ireland.
Consequently. near to replacement level since the late 1990s. which discusses the use of addresses in Britain by Irish resident women seeking abortions in Britain. which corresponds to a family of two children. This was the era of the Celtic tiger when there were especially good opportunities for paid employment for women in Ireland. The total Fertility rate is near to 2 in both parts of the island. A report for the Crisis Pregnancy Agency in dublin published in 2006  on abortions performed on Irish women in the UK.indd 8 09/12/2011 08:46 . but both jurisdications continue to show higher fertility rates.8 | CHAPter 1 – demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Figure 1 shows the higher abortion rates for Ireland in the late 1990s and early 2000s. past rises in rates [up to 2001] may partly be due to women’s greater willingness to state they are from Ireland”. Irelands_Gain.07 total Fertility rate. This is much higher than the european average tFr around 1. The authors do not attribute the lower rates of abortion in both Ireland and Northern Ireland in recent years to an increase in women from these jurisdication giving addresses in Britain when travelling to it for abortions. to the extent that this takes place these rates will be underestimates.4 and close to replacement level around 2. says that with “the increasingly liberal views on sex and abortion in Irish society… the number of women giving false addresses is likely to be lower now than in the past. IrISH FertILItY The decline in fertility throughout europe since 1968 is also apparent in Ireland and Northern Ireland. There have been suggestions that some women from the island go abroad for abortions to Britain reporting english. Figure 2 shows the fertility trend. and also the corresponding tArs (total Abortion rates) for each year for Ireland. welsh or Scottish addresses at abortion clinics.
00 Rat 2.00 3.00 0.indd 9 2010 0.00 2.00 0.50 Rate 2.50 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Figure 3 shows these trends for Northern Ireland. since the 1980s we can see a close match with replacement level of the total level of conceptions when fertility and abortion rates are combined. 1968-2010 1968-2010 Ireland.50 0.00 3.Ireland’s Gain 9 Figure 2 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Total Abortion Rates (TAR) Figure 2: Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Total Abortion Rates (TAR) Ireland.50 1.50 2.50 TAR TFR Replacement Level 2.00 09/12/2011 08:46 .50 3.00 1. Again.50 1.00 1.50 TFR TAR Replacement Level 2. 4. 1968-2010 4.07 3.07 4. Irelands_Gain.00 68 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2002009 2010 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1981983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year Figure 3: Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Total Abortion Rates (TAR) Northern Ireland.
indd 10 09/12/2011 08:46 . The right of social housing tenants in the UK to buy the properties they are renting. The especially steep decline in fertility in Scotland can be linked to the decline in traditional industries that means young men in Scotland are less well placed to marry and assume family commitments. Also. the parallel growth in service industries provides opportunities for women who are now claiming a greater share of educational and professional opportunities [6. especially as more couples are exposed to the financial strain of purchasing their house with the effect of reducing parity progression. Part of this recent increase is attributable to certain immigrant groups which have a higher fertility and are larger in england and wales. recently the english and welsh birth rate has risen. compared to the island of Ireland. [6.7].10 | CHAPter 1 – demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Figure 4 shows these trends for england & wales.7]. has been a further factor in the decline of fertility that has impacted Scotland. Figure 5 shows that Scotland has experienced a greater decline in fertility compared to england and wales over this period. Irelands_Gain. This also shows a close match between replacement level and the total rate of all conceptions over most of the period.
10 0. in conjunction with a growth in extra-marital births.36 0.14 0. A speciﬁc point of interest is that all countries of the UK have experienced a similar upturn of greater than 10 per cent in birth rates since the lows of 2001/02.29 0. as shown in table 2. notwithstanding a late age of marriage and late age of childbearing.51 0.13 Northern Ireland 0. Lower abortion rates are apparently linked to higher fertility rates in Ireland and Northern Ireland.14 0. there has been a significant contribution by mothers born abroad to the recent upswing in the Northern Ireland birth rate  deMoGrAPHIC dIStINCtIVeS ANd ABortIoNS: IreLANd ANd NortHerN IreLANd traditionally. as a proportion of all live births. the birth rate in Northern Ireland has begun to converge but remains higher than the rates observed in England and in Wales. This pattern continues.39 A report in Population trends 2009  said “the historical pattern in crude birth rates for each of the four UK countries is very similar”. Just how low abortion rates in Ireland and Northern Ireland are compared to those in Britain is shown by table 2. Average ages at which women give birth to their first child are shown in table 3. while immigration into Northern Ireland has been much less than that into to england and wales.22 0.36 0.indd 11 09/12/2011 08:46 .45 0.05 0.15 0.15 0. while both jurisdictions also manifest the modern trends of a decline in marriage and lower fertility.20 0.53 0. But the report goes on to explain that there is some divergence: “While over the last century the birth rate in Scotland has converged with and then fallen below the rates in England and in Wales.52 Scotland 0. Ireland and Northern Ireland have exhibited a high birth rate.33 0. Indeed the average age at childbearing in Ireland and Northern Ireland continues to rise.13 0.Ireland’s Gain 11 In Figures 2 to 5 there is an approximate match between the total Abortion rates and the shortfall below replacement level of the total Fertility rate.39 0. table 2 illustrates that Irealnd continues to show this demographic distinctive to a greater degree than Northern Ireland.” Northern Ireland like elsewhere has seen a trend to later childbearing with a particular decline in the birth rate of women in their early twenties. which are much nearer to replacement level than those of other parts of europe.09 England & Wales 0. Table 2 TARs: Total Abortion Rates in island of Ireland and Britain 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 0.13 0.28 0.04 0. Irelands_Gain.
12 | CHAPter 1 –demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Table 3 Average ages of women at birth of ﬁrst child in Ireland.3 31.1 28.9 England & Wales 26.3 31.5 29.4 29. 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 29.5 30.3 27. the rise has been more pronounced in england and wales since 1971.6 30.2 while the average age at first birth in Ireland and Northern Ireland has risen.5 29. was still apparent and the traditional pattern of later childbirth in Ireland compared to Northern Ireland is also still apparent in 2009.0 25. In 1971.0 29.8 27. the traditional pattern whereby women in Northern Ireland and especially those in Ireland started their families later than in england and wales.9 Northern Ireland 24.9 29. while Northern Ireland has an intermediate age of childbearing between Ireland and england & wales.6 England & Wales 24.2 25.4 28. There has been a greater participation by females in higher and further education in england and wales during this period and greater professional career opportunities for women.5 25.5 Northern Ireland 27.4 29. table 4 shows these trends in respect of the average age at childbirth for all children.0 29. Irelands_Gain.2 26.6 28.0 26.8 29.6 26.5 In 2010 it still true to say that on the island of Ireland have their children at a later age than those in england and wales with this pattern more pronounced in Ireland.6 27.6 27. Table 4 Average ages at Childbearing in Ireland. Northern Ireland and England & Wales. Northern Ireland and England & Wales 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 25.indd 12 09/12/2011 08:46 .6 29.
444 36. compared to less than 28% in Northern Ireland.902 100% 0 13. in Ireland. But there is a paradox in the conjunction of a higher proportion married in Northern Ireland compared with Ireland and the higher proportion in Northern Ireland of extra-marital births compared with Ireland. less than 54% of single mothers giving birth are having their first child in Northern Ireland. It seems welfare benefits in Northern Ireland.289 53.3% Previous Live Born Children 1 2 and more 16.550 55. are more generous and assist single parents to add to their families to a greater extent than in Ireland. that includes Northern Ireland. we find it is higher in Northern Ireland.9% 30.8% 4. There is a consistency between the higher proportion married and high birth rate in Northern Ireland and the low abortion rate there. Northern Ireland maintains a relatively high marriage rate. Table 6. Previous Live Born Children. It is apparent that there is a higher parity progression within marriage in Ireland.803 28.3% 5.008 100% 0 17. while the proportion in Ireland is less than 18%.724 4.062 33. whereas Ireland continues to manifest the demographic distinctive of late marriage. making use of tables kindly supplied by Vital Statistics at the Central Statistical office in Ireland and Census NISrA in Northern Ireland. while in the UK. And larger families are more in evidence in Ireland where over 30% of those born within marriage already have 2 or more siblings. Larger single parent families are more in evidence in Northern Ireland.indd 13 09/12/2011 08:46 . In 2009. Less than 36% of married mothers giving birth in Ireland in 2009 are having their first child while the proportion is over 36% in Northern Ireland. Numbers and Proportions for 2009 Total Number Proportion (%) Number Proportion (%) 24.3% Ireland Northern Ireland when we consider parity progression outside marriage shown in table 6. Previous Live Born Children.374 35.4% Previous Live Born Children 1 2 and more 6.4% 17.Ireland’s Gain 13 Figure 6 shows the proportion married at ages 25-29 when young women are likely to marry and start a family.9% Ireland Northern Ireland table 5 shows this within Marriage for 2009.883 15. In Ireland there are child tax allowances to determine Income tax paid by parents. Numbers and Proportions for 2009 Total Number Proportion (%) Number Proportion (%) 49. Irelands_Gain. Live Births outside Marriage. whereas more than 55% are doing so in Ireland. to examine this paradox we might consider parity progression in the two jurisdictions. 67% of births were to married parents but this ratio was 60.190 27.258 27. Table 5 Live Births within Marriage.4% 2.532 100% 9.3% 1. In 2009.8% 5.801 35. over 18% of those born outside marriage in Northern Ireland have already two or more siblings. as in the rest of the UK.2% 5.746 100% 15. while income tax reliefs give more assistance in Ireland to married couples to have larger families.810 18.2% in Northern Ireland.
indd 14 09/12/2011 08:46 .480 2.411 2.41 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Irelands_Gain. Nulliparous 428 2.00 59.14 | CHAPter 1 – demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 there are Child Credits subject to means-testing that are especially useful to single parents. with married women having a much lower incidence of abortion.79 Nulliparous 441 965 1. Higher parity progression in Northern Ireland among single parents contributes to the especially low rate of parous abortions there.910 1. There is known to be a high inverse correlation between marital status and abortion rates.51 62.500 Ireland Parous 136 1. These are derived from age specific tabulations supplied by the department of Health in London .81 56.479 1.11 66.512 2. compared with Parous abortions in both Irish jurisdictions also reﬂect these marriage trends. Figure 7 shows the relative sizes of Nulliparous and Parous total Abortion rates in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968.85 56. trends in abortions and especially the changing pattern of Nulliparous Abortions.23 51.194 2.106 1.51 67. In both Ireland and Northern Ireland .16 66. the nulliparous abortion rate is less than half the england and wales rate in the 1980s. where the woman has not previously had a full term pregnancy.192 936 609 566 Northern Ireland Parous 188 486 587 641 514 535 %Nulliparous 70. while the high proportion married there corresponds to the especially low rate of nulliparous abortions.902 %Nulliparous 75.802 4.89 69.35 54. Table 7 Number of women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland having Parous nd Nulliparous Abortions in England during selected Years since 1968.
Ireland’s Gain 15 The percentage of nulliparous abortions at around 57% in 2010 in the Ireland remains higher than in england & wales. In both jurisdictions on the island of Ireland.indd 15 09/12/2011 08:46 . Irelands_Gain. the increased proportion of parous abortions in recent years can be linked to the growth in single parenting and the decline in marriage. late childbearing and higher birth rates in the two jurisdictions and by comparison with england & wales. This reﬂects the continuing demographic distinctives of late marriage. The very low Northern Ireland rate for nulliparous abortions can be linked to the higher proportion of women married in the age group 25-29 as shown above in Figure 6. it reﬂects the lower proportion of births outside wedlock on the island.
Furthermore.16 | CHAPter 2 – Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws.indd 16 09/12/2011 08:46 . the system of social housing provision is similar in both jurisdictions and as already alluded to social housing tenants who rent from the Housing executive in Northern Ireland or from local authorities in Scotland have the right to buy their home. Scotland has a similar cultural and religious tradition to Northern Ireland and socio-economic conditions are also similar with both parts of the UK experiencing a significant decline in traditional industries.8 52. ortion laws.52 16.3 34. if the abortion law had been liberalised.9 50.22 100. The same taxation and welfare systems that affect families with children are in operation in both Northern Ireland and Scotland.62 100.2 8. The Northern Ireland fertility rate since 1968 was reduced by the difference between the estimated abortion rates in Scotland and Northern Ireland after a six months time lag. table 9 summaries how this hypothetical population development (II) compares with the official historic estimates(I) of the population of Northern Ireland. CHAPter 2 Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws.000s Persons 0-14 % 15-64 % 65+ % Total % 2001 9. where the westminster 1967 Abortion Act applies. Table 8 shows the changed demographic proﬁle in Scotland over the last ten years.0 2010 8.05 15. In this projection it was also assumed that the experienced rates of mortality and migration were unaltered. provides a guide to what might have been the experience in Northern Ireland.9 33.91 66. NortHerN IreLANd SINCe 1968 what might have been the demographic impact of applying the 1967 Abortion Act to Northern Ireland? Scotland.50 66. 100.07 17.9 8. Irelands_Gain.79 16.0 A 1968 based population projection has been calculated to illustrate the effect of assuming Scottish abortion rates applied to Northern Ireland since 1968 with a correspondingly reduced fertility rate in Northern Ireland over the period.
66 1.28 1991 I II 3.99 26.24 13.89 16.9 56.44 3.43 15. In 2010 the age group 0-14 was 19. The projection also shows an older demographic profile for 2010 than is now reported.08 13.2 2.88 12.3 15.0 Number 18.40 15.8million for 2010. table 10 shows the comparison with the UK and Germany and Japan for 2001 of the distribution of the Irish population over three age groups.53 29. of the population.18 59.Ireland’s Gain 17 Table 9 .72 24.95 10.5 100.9 17.4 23.8 17.58 3.03 19.07 9.43 65.000s Persons.5 15.7 1. has made possible lower PrSI (Pay related Social Insurance) Contributions which are less than social security costs in other developed countries.6 67.4 100.3 13.0 12.indexmundi.6 67.41 61. The more youthful population in Ireland. Total Population 2001 (Millions) UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 10.70 3.8 65.41 9. with a higher proportion in the working ages and a lower proportion in the older age groups.99 17. But if Scottish abortion rates had applied this proportion would be less than 18%.88 1. Summary table for Northern Ireland.23 126.24 2.27 % 18. In Germany and Japan it has been found increasingly difficult to recover from recession because of lack of consumer demand on the part of an aged population and there is a greater reliance on exports for any future economic upswing.1 11.2 15.indd 17 09/12/2011 08:46 .60 2.92 3.07 15.2 12.7 63.34 21. Age Group 0-14 % 15-64 % 65+ % Total 1971 I II 4.78 2001 I II 3.99 22.8 15.85 39.com whereas the over 65 age group accounted for 11.8 16.03 Germany Number % 15. Table 10.0 13.2 16.66 10.3 13. it was 17.6 67.1 9.0 Sources: national web sites and http://www.58 0.37 1981 I II 4.98 62.6 67.7 11.6 29.83 2.3 17.5% in Japan.06 I – Historic Population Male and Female II – Projected Population with Adjusted Fertility This projection indicates that if Scottish abortion rates had applied to Northern Ireland with a corresponding reduction in the Northern Irish birth rate over the period 1968 to 2010.6 1.6 59.7 16.18 9.9 2.57 4.93 9.34 2010 I II 3.77 Japan % 14.6 100.4% of the population in Ireland in 2001.0 61. 100.9%.60 14.77 64.0 66.71 million in 2010 in contrast to the official estimate of 1.8 83.9 26.8 10.08 2.15 3. Irelands_Gain. nearly 20%.5 9.9 20.0 Number 0.55 85.51 60.4 10. the Northern Ireland population would be 1.81 11. deMoGrAPHIC ProSPeCtS For IreLANd How might the future demographic profile change with liberalisation of the abortion law? Presently Ireland enjoys a youthful demographic profile that compares favourably with other developed countries. In the UK Pensionable Age has been raised as a way of managing the increased cost burden of paying old-age pensions when the cost is to be spread over a relatively reduced population of working age.6 10.84 Ireland % 21.0 2.8 100.
75 % 16.2 16.99 3.70 % 17.97 4. Projection II assumed that fertility remained constant at 2010 levels in Ireland.67 % 21.6 100.98 % 14.0 table 12 shows a less youthful profile for Irealnd in future years for Projection I.7 100.92 74.9 100.48 % 13. are 22.4 19. tion laws.0 Ireland Number 0.1 15.30 0.0 Japan Number 13.2 64. over age 65.3 59.1 67.6 100.1 64.29 15.34 12.indexmundi.9 100. The results are shown in table 12 for 2021 and 2031 comparing the results with the UK and Japan.66 123.34 62.0 Japan Number 16.3 66. 12a.27 0.08 % 16.70 3.5 100.77 81. Oﬃcial and Projected Population 2021 (Millions of Persons) Ireland UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 11.85 53.18 | CHAPter 2 – Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws.69 % 16.3 19.7 66. Irelands_Gain.8 19.8 63.4 64. to illustrate how the future prospects for the demographic profile of Ireland might be affected by liberalisation of the abortion law.6 100.99 43.19 % 17.6 15.9 61.02 3.79 3.4 59.0 12b.5 100.58 % 11.3 66.0 22.0 Germany Number 10.6 14.0 III Number 1.93 126.77 4.indd 18 09/12/2011 08:46 .36 % 19.6% of the Irish population.94 % 18.95 42.94 3. Oﬃcial and Projected Population 2030 (Millions) Ireland UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 11.87 3. forward projections based a midyear 2010 population for Ireland obtained from the CSo web site.7 100.2 29.0 II Number 0.3 11.9 65. Projection II was as specified on the CSo web site with assumptions of high migration and fertility.0 19.57 0.1 20.77 117.9% of the Japanese population but only 11. According to this projection children aged under 15 will be less than 15% of the population in 2031.14 0.90 % 17. Zero net migration and a 1% per annum reduction in mortality from 2010 was assumed.6 100.0 I Number 0. to reﬂect liberalisation of the abortion law. Table 12.72 1.97 5.4 66.23 69.57 % 13.03 5.0 100.60 80.88 41.32 0.2 21.0 III Number 0.0 Sources: national web sites and http://www.48 10.77 5.3 100.90 3.27 0.90 67. Projection 1 assumed that abortion rates in Ireland increase linearly over 10 years to converge with 2010 Scottish abortion rates with a corresponding reduction in fertility from 2010 rates.58 34.28 34.0 27.0 II Number 0.85 16.94 28.com Here we can note the elderly.1 66. Table 11 Total Population 2011 (Millions) UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 10.47 % 13. have been made.47 70.77 4. ortbor- The trend continued with a greater divergence manifest in 2011 as shown in table 11.54 4.4 100.2 100.0 I Number 0.0 Japan Number 16.
http://www.indexmundi.indd 19 09/12/2011 08:46 .jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/t_1_e.000 per annum in 2031/2036 +10. Germany and Japan for 2001 and all data for the year 2011 .000 per annum in 2026/2031 +10.000 per annum in 2036/2041 Irelands_Gain.Ireland’s Gain 19 SoUrCeS • • • • • • • total Population for Ireland.Adjusted Fertility rates.000 per annum in 2011/2016 +25.http://en.gad.go.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter M2: Immigration continuing at more moderate levels +50.http://www.wikipedia.000 per annum in 2006/2011 +35.html I .2010 Fertility rates with zero net migration for 2010 estimates.000 per annum in 2016/2021 +10. assuming Abortion rates converges linearly over ten years to the Scottish rates and zero net migration II .000 per annum in 2021/2026 +10.org/wiki/demography_of_the_United Kingdom data for UK Population Projection – http://www.gov.uk/demography%20data/Population/index aspx?y=2006&v=Principal data for Japan Population Projection .ipss.com total Population for UK for 2001 .official as on CSo website with assumptions for fertility and migration as below (Method M2F2) F2: tFr to decrease to 1. 2006 based III .
3 Scotland All Singleton 71.6 5.6 51.0 39.1 62.6 59.1 52.9 68.6 69.2 5.8 57.5 55.6 4. The difference between the Ireland and Northern Ireland.0 8. Stillbirth Rate per 1000 live births in Ireland.3 36.0 65. Northern Ireland.3 36.4 59.7 52.0 59.5 55.indd 20 09/12/2011 08:46 .8 72.8 62.7 40.8 Northern Ireland 14.4 67.9 Scotland 12. All 49. where abortions are more common.4 45.4 59. to a greater extent than the authors explained by deprivation or socio-economic conditions. There has been a noticeably greater improvement in Ireland and Northern Ireland in this rate over the period than in england & wales and Scotland.2 63.1 For the period since 1968.5 57.4 57.1 65. Presumably the lower incidence of induced abortion among women in Ireland and Northern Ireland has helped to accomplish this health gain.5 62.0 49.5 68.4 38.7 75.0 59.3 50. whereby Northern Irelands_Gain.2 3.4 56.3 39.1 53.9 61.6 71.7 51. Low weight Births (under 2500g) per 1000 Live births.8 60.1 50.1 England & Wales 13. England & Wales and Scotland 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 18. Table 14.4 71.1 4.2 71.8 57.2 54.0 76.3 5.4 4.4 59.6 71.9 48. rates of still births in the two jurisdictions are now lower than those in Britain. Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 There is known to be higher risks of Stillbirths and Premature Births (and also of Low weight babies born) when women have had previous induced abortions.2 77.7 5.4 52.7 5.8 64.7 3.3 6.8 56. The risk of women giving birth prematurely following an abortion that can leave a woman with residual damage has long been recognised . This is shown in table 14 and can be linked to the lower incidence of induced abortion among women on the island of Ireland. The proportion of low weight multiple birth can be inﬂuenced by use of modern fertility treatments that lead to multiple births.0 49.8 60.7 Northern Ireland All Singleton 61.5 45.6 75. we have UK and Irish l data for stillbirths as shown in table 13. Table 13.9 49.3 66.7 74.6 5.3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ireland has a much lower incidence of low weight babies (less than 2500gm) born than england & wales and Northern Ireland also has a lower incidence of this condition.3 53.0 53.2 38.4 59.5 5.5 74.7 71.7 72.8 74.9 49.0 49.2 41.3 Ireland Singleton 37.20 | CHAPter 3 – Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 CHAPter 3.5 6.8 75.1 England & Wales All Singleton 75.0 38.8 50.4 54.2 38.3 50.3 5.3 8.8 4.1 58.2 61.8 4.8 49.2 55.2 7. english studies  have shown that the rate of low weight babies is much higher among unmarried mothers.
9 8.5 12.4 8. Some of the higher incidence of low weight births in england is attributable to a more numerous community of Asian origin who have lower birth weights as a genetic tendency.6 11.0 England & Wales All Singleton 12.7 7.9 11.0 11.5 8.0 6. Preterm Births rate per 1000 live 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 Ireland 43. Irelands_Gain.7 8. especially in the former.4 8.4 11.7 10.indd 21 09/12/2011 08:46 .7 Scotland 73.7 14.64 1.3 6. Table 16.6 6.5 n/a 11.9 75.8 12.0 11.2 6.1 9.72 Source: register of Cerebral Palsy in Northern Ireland.4 10. Belfast.9 10.19 2.8 10.5 Ireland Singleton 6.0 Scotland All Singleton 10. Numbers per annum and rates.3 12.6 10.5 11.1 8.1 12. Scotland has an abortion rate that is intermediate between england & wales and that in Ireland and Northern Ireland but has a higher proportion of births outside wedlock than england.5 6.7 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 table 15 shows a similar pattern in respect of very low weight births.8 8.1 8.2 10.6 7.0 6.8 12.1 70. Unmarried women are more likely to exhibit other risk factors such as deprivation.9 Northern Ireland n/a England & Wales 72. Ireland and Great Britain All 8.3 6.8 10.0 11.7 11.4 9.8 50.0 11. But preterm births measured as of less than 37 weeks gestational age are also of less frequent occurrence in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Table 15.7 39. 77-08 98-08 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Number of Cases 55 50 56 47 51 40 44 Rate (per 1.9 10.3 12.5 6.1 43.7 51.8 8.5 11.9 12.6 12.6 8. as shown in table 16 and this measure is not affected by genetic characteristics of Asians.3 9.6 11.19 1.5 12. Very low weight Births (under 1500g) per 1000 Live births.6 CereBrAL PALSY Table 17.51 2.4 9.6 9.1 73.3 69.2 7.2 Northern Ireland All Singleton 9.1 8.10 2.0 44.4 43.7 10. is consistent with the higher proportion of births outside marriage in Northern Ireland.5 10.0 12.2 12.8 11.0 10. New cases of Cerebral Palsy in Northern Ireland.9 45.6 8.6 8.000 live births) 2.2 8.3 8.21 2.2 10.Ireland’s Gain 21 Ireland has proportionately more low weight babies. poor diet and smoking that are conducive to low birth weight.8 7.8 69.
(Shah et al 2009) This analysis finds the preterm birth rate in Northern Ireland is low and there is a low rate of premature births in Northern Ireland. England & Wales and Scotland Rate per 100.0 Ireland Northern Ireland 25.03.0 5. Northern Ireland.000 livebirths in Ireland. while the register of Cerebral Palsy in Northern Ireland still operates other registers in the UK have ceased operations.000 live 1968 to 2010 30. These findings suggest the critical necessity to further evaluate the effects of abortion on preterm birth. Northern Ireland.0 0. In Ireland the trend in maternal deaths during the period since 1968 has come to compare more favourably with Britain as shown in Figure 8. Year Irelands_Gain. has historically had very few maternal deaths but has recently seen some deterioration. especially in the light of new information in preterm birth in its relationship to abortion.0 15.21 per 1000 live births with the average rate in the last 5 years to 2008 being 2.0 68 to 72 to 74 to 76 to 78 to 80 to 82 to 84 to 86 to 88 to 90 to 92 to 94 to 96 to 98 to 00 to 02 to 04 to 06 to 08 to 10 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 whereas Ireland has shown considerable improvement in this measure. over the period since 1968.indd 22 09/12/2011 08:46 .22 | CHAPter 3 – Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 table 17 shows how the number of cases of cerebral palsy recorded by the Northern Ireland register has tended to average around 50 per annum in Northern Ireland since the 1998 and the rate has been around that 2.5 per thousand. where the numbers are small. For the United Kingdom as a whole the rate of cerebral palsy is understood to be around 1 in 400 live births or 2.0 England & Wales Scotland 20. It is among premature births that cerebral palsy is especially common. Figure 8 Comparison of the Maternal Death Rate per 100.0 10.  Public health officials and MLAs must thoroughly evaluate this women’s health not only for its impact on the healthcare infrastructure but for its impact on women’s health and the family MAterNAL deAtHS Abortion laws have been liberalised in countries where there have been large numbers of maternal deaths attributable to clandestine abortions.
1 5. Previous work by reardon. Further analysis of this finding in the context of confounding variables would be useful.8 3.2 4.2 3. The rates of suicide among those from the island of Ireland have been lower in the period since 1968. database suggest to public health officials and legislators. there were 110% more claims for adjustment reaction.Ireland’s Gain 23 CHAPter 4 Mental Health of women in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 A recently published paper in the British Journal of Psychiatry 2011 (Coleman) has reported that the risks of mental illness post abortion are increased: “Women who had undergone an abortion experienced an 81% increased risk of mental health problems.2 7. the Primary Care reimbursement Agency covers the payment of these treatments for a large part of the population.1 4. data from NHS Prescription Statistics in Britain and the Primary Care reimbursement Agency in Ireland enable comparisons of usage in Ireland with Britain for 8 of the most popular treatments of this kind. the need to address these findings in their populations. 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 3. found using inpatient mental health claims in almost 60. as elsewhere. et al.000 women in the Ireland. and 200% increase in bipolar disorder. those with abortions (some 15. while the UK National Health Service covers the whole population in wales and Scotland and Northern Ireland. For the Ireland. and. Across the 4 years studied. 2003. Making allowance for the size of the populations. Female suicide rate per 100.6 Scotland 6. It was also concluded that “increased risk occurred …pertained to substance abuse and suicidal behaviour.indd 23 09/12/2011 08:46 .1 5. caution must be exercised when comparing different demographic groups.” SUICIde Table 18.4 8. England & Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland.3 3.1 4.000+) had 160% more total mental health claims within 90 days of their abortion compared to those giving birth.9 9.9 England & Wales 8. However. that. do allow for questions regarding the impact of abortion on mental health to be brought to the attention of legislators and public health organizations. these findings in a large.7 5. nearly 10% of the incidence of mental health problems was shown to be attributable to abortion”. this comparison suggests that consumption of these is less in Ireland. Again. both before they have abortions [14. multiyear. 90% for single depressive psychosis. Use of antidepressants is particularly associated with women who have abortions. USe oF PSYCHotroPIC ANtI-dePreSSANtS IN IreLANd ANd NortHerN IreLANd In Ireland and Northern Ireland.15] and post abortion.4 table 18 compares the national suicide rates for women on the islands of Britain and Ireland. Irelands_Gain. 110% for recurrent depressive psychosis.8 5.000 women with no prior psychiatric health claims in the year prior.4 7. there is an increase in use of anti-depressants.6 3. However. long term (almost 40 years of data) ecological studies like the present one with maternal mental health outcomes.4 Northern Ireland 3.
In Ireland there seem not to have been recent surveys of mental health.”  These more recent cohorts of women in england have experienced a higher abortion rate. Irelands_Gain. CMds were especially common among black women  among whom there is also a higher abortion rate. women’s mental health has deteriorated in england. Northern Ireland and Britain.indd 24 09/12/2011 08:46 . The former Health Minister Michael McGimpsey described it as “the end of a tax on illness”.5 per cent in 2007…The largest increase in rate of CMD was in women aged 45-64 among whom the rate rose by a ﬁfth. In Northern Ireland and Scotland. women without medical cards in Ireland have to pay for anti-depressants. In Northern Ireland. most prescriptions of anti-depressants are dispensed free of charge but some pay the £7. London “The proportion of women (aged 16 to 64) suﬀering a common mental disorder (CMD) – typically depression or anxiety – increased from 19. the Health and Social wellbeing Survey 2005/06  found that 21% of women were likely to show signs of a mental health problem. which are quite expensive but are reimbursed of the excess if the total monthly cost of their prescriptions exceeds €120 and this last group are counted in the above data for Ireland. The findings in this report confirm the urgent need to explore the impact of abortion services on women’s health in Ireland. a €0.24 | CHAPter 4 – Mental Health of women in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 there is heavy usage of these eight commonly prescribed anti-depressants. the prescribing of drugs without a charge may have led to overprescribing.50 charge has been introduced for those who have medical cards. Prescription charges in Northern Ireland were scrapped from April 1 in 2010.1 per cent in 1993 to 21. which reported the data on its web site. dr Brian dunn of the British Medical Association’s Northern Ireland Council attributed the high usage of antidepressant drugs to the legacy of the troubles and poor mental health services. In england.40 charge that has been waived elsewhere in the UK. Usage may be less in Ireland. In Ireland. which is slightly lower than the corresponding figure of 23% showing such signs in the British Psychiatric Morbidity Survey . The Mental Health Commission Annual report 2010  found that Involuntary Admissions to mental health hospitals over the years 2007 to 2010 dropped 8% from 2126 to 1952. According to Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007. even after allowing for the fact that many women in the State do not have medical cards and are not covered by the schemes administered by the Primary Care reimbursement Agency. of whom 34% were female.
9 196.2 282.1 271.8 178.2 274.5 178. though some women receive letters inviting screening at age 49.1 260.3 181.7 184.0 306.7 275. In Ireland.2 191. the screening programme started later in 2000. USA.4 185. The same report  found in respect of incidence across both jurisdiction on the island that “incidence rates during 1998-2000 were lower than in the EU (15 countries). The UK screening programme started in Britain to cover age groups 50 to 64 and reached full population coverage around 1994 and in Northern Ireland it started in 1993.2 185. An early age at first birth and breastfeeding are protective against breast cancer.3 113.7 219.5 180.”.4 182. Cancer Ireland 2011  reports: “Breast cancer incidence has generally been increasing with an average APC of 1.9 262. The especially low incidence rates in Northern Ireland can be regarded as consistent with the Northern Ireland’s lower abortion rate from the 1970s compared to Ireland.5 253. UK. and 1993-1999 from Northern Ireland. also covering women over 50.8 202.9 160. some of which is attributable to the effects of breast cancer screening programmes that cover women in rotation by age. The Cancer Atlas of the United Kingdom and Ireland.6 292. As shown in table 19.” Table 19 Malignant Breast Cancer Incidence rate per 100. published in 2005.9 England & Wales 45-49 50-54 170.3 176.7 196.6 150.3 179.2 167.5 135.0 213. The low incidence of breast cancer in Ireland and Northern Ireland is the more remarkable when the tradition of late childbearing on the island is noted in conjunction with the comparative neglect of breast feeding. breast cancer rates among women in Ireland and Northern Ireland from 1999 to 2007 were lower on average than rates among those in Britain. There are also apparent year-on-year ﬂuctuations in rates. In the latter there has been a more recent introduction of digital screening machines.1 271.6 92. where cancer registration commenced in 1993. where registration commenced in 1994.2 45-49 185.3 300. But the low incidence of breast cancer among women from the island of Ireland becomes more explicable if the low abortion rate among women from the island is acknowledged as a relevant factor in conjunction with the continuation of higher fertility.9 for the period 1994-2009. That epidemiological study used several years of data 1994-99 from Ireland.3 289.indd 25 09/12/2011 08:46 .9 208.5 242.  found a low rate of female breast cancer incidence throughout the island of Ireland.4 115. Canada and Australia”.5% lower in Northern Ireland than in Ireland during 200-2004.4 177.1 Northern Ireland 45-49 50-54 177.7 184.2 CHAPter 5 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Breast cancer is known to vary in incidence with the effects of hormonal and reproductive risk factors. especially in situ cancers.Ireland’s Gain 25 Breast Cancer. including Northern Ireland. and a second increase in 2007 with the roll out of this programme to the rest of Ireland.7 177. which is all the more remarkable as screening over that period was more developed in Northern Ireland.1 178.3 253.000 Women aged 45-49 and 50-54 45-49 163.8 Ireland 50-54 227.2 Scotland 50-54 266.1 171.4 262. Screening starts at age 50 in the UK. which are more efficient at detecting cancers.2 258.2 134.7 187. Cancer in Ireland: A comprehensive report published in April 2009 found for female breast cancer (malignant ICd10-C50) “incidence rates were 3. There appears to have been an increase in incidence in 2000-2002 at the start of the national breast screening programme in the east of the country. Irelands_Gain.7 265.9 257.7 201.
and hormonal treatments such as Hormone replacement Therapy and oral Contraceptives are positive risk factors. High correlations between cohort abortion and breast cancer rates in both jurisdictions and elsewhere  suggest that the cumulated cohort abortion rates can be useful predictors of incidence trends in female breast cancer. These figures also show the cumulated abortion rates for the same cohorts of women. a late age at first birth.77 Figure 11 shows breast cancer incidence discovered within ages 50 to 54 in Ireland. The trend in recent Irelands_Gain. Correlation Coefficient: 0. childlessness. Figure 10 shows how these show small increases in recent years for Northern Ireland and Figure 11 shows how these have shown some increase for Ireland.54 Correlation Coefficient : 0.indd 26 09/12/2011 08:46 . More stable than the yearly incidence rates are the cumulated cohort rates (being less reﬂective of variations in screening activity).26 | CHAPter 5 – Brest Cancer whereas childbearing and breast feeding are protective against breast cancer. induced abortion prior to first term pregnancy and preterm delivery prior to 32 weeks.
8 96.866 45. Number of cases of Breast Cancer Incidence. These forecasts used modelling in which abortion rates and fertility rates are the two explanatory variables.1 96.8 184. table 20 shows how these forecasts have performed for the years since 2005 up to 2009 for Ireland .9 142.0 118. N. Predicted Ireland Year 05 06 07 08 09 Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Northern Ireland Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) England & Wales Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Expected Scotland Obs/ Observed Exp(%) 2336 2381 2426 2470 2515 2195 2289 2503 2808 2766 95. england & wales and Scotland.4 96.8 97.3 Across the board.120 42.0 87. and england & wales and Scotland. Number of Cases of Malignant Breast Cancer Observed v. These covered Northern Ireland and Ireland.073 46.430 45. N.0 119.5 99.1 100. Forecast and Observed Breast Cancer Incidence Table 20A.6 156.8 98.018 41. Ireland and Britain Observed v Predicted Ireland Year 05 06 07 08 09 Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Northern Ireland Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) England & Wales Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Expected Scotland Obs/ Observed Exp(%) 2499 2547 2595 2642 2690 2405 2493 2721 3126 3156 96.7 110. Irelands_Gain.299 45.2 97.9 222.3 1224 1250 1276 1303 1329 1187 1090 1303 1302 1374 97.3 117.261 103. Forecasts were published in 2007  for 8 european countries of breast cancer incidence in future years.0 100.1 118.4 43. Table 20.9 105.0 1117 1161 1185 1208 1232 1134 984 1159 1168 1204 94. Number of Cases In Situ Breast Cancer Incidence in Ireland.9 Table 20C.2 113.3 119.7 40.5 118.0 3848 3953 4058 4163 4268 4445 4676 4854 5122 5077 115.9 87 89 92 94 97 108 106 144 134 170 124.7 101.0 103. Northern Ireland.5 100.5 98.4 97.747 42.3 113.0 100. from their higher abortion rates prior to first term delivery and lower birth rates.8 104.6 122.Ireland’s Gain 27 years has shown small increases until the last two years.3 101.184 102. Ireland and Britain Observed v Predicted Ireland Year 05 06 07 08 09 Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Northern Ireland Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) England & Wales Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Expected Scotland Obs/ Observed Exp(%) 163 166 169 172 175 177 204 221 318 390 108.5 102.738 48.222 43.488 48.2 99.695 45.8 122.3 100.601 47.9 130. progress with screening has brought an increase in detection of in situ cancers and this has been especially true of Ireland since 2007. where larger increases were forecast.3 176.7 97.427 40.325 44.0 102.1 103. Malignant and In Situ in Ireland.2 112.2 125.6 123.616 43.2 3917 4067 4171 4274 4378 3996 4156 4141 4318 4392 102.3 Table 20B. where relatively small increases in incidence were anticipated.1 99.280 47.0 345 354 364 373 383 439 444 414 456 432 127.854 40.2 102.754 40.indd 27 09/12/2011 08:46 .1 4308 4421 4534 4648 4761 4513 4600 4555 4774 4824 104.9 84.
3 605.28 | CHAPter 6 – diseases of the Immune System CHAPter 6.2 103. diseases of the Immune System.1 14. when the birth rates in Ireland and Northen Ireland are higher and abortion rates lower it is suggested that the low abortion rates could be protective against this disease among their women.6 238.1 3.9 2.2 66.  In a similar way it is thought that induced abortions can also be occasions of transfer of foetal cells so as to produce a reaction in the mother conducive to diseases such as rheumatoid Arthritis.1 3.0 681.0 291. table 21 shows how incidence of hospital cases of rheumatoid Arthritis compare in several european countries.indd 28 09/12/2011 08:46 . when the birth rate continues to be high in Ireland and Northen Ireland and the incidence of induced abortions among women resident in these jurisdictions low.6 Male 115.4 198. where the numbers for the two jurisdictions are aggregated and the numbers for all regions summed for the period2005 to 2008. Table 21. Further study of these findings with controls for confounding variables could clarify this association.7 147.8 2.2 92.1 185.9 69. The female to male ratios tend to be lower in Ireland and Northern Ireland.7 3.1 3.8 2.6 92. The transfer of foetal cells to the mother in pregnancy and at labour can give rise to adverse reaction in the mother with certain conditions and diseases becoming more prevalent. These diseases tend to be more common among women but are also found among men.3 Female 301.7 2.7 3.9 2. Rates per 100.4 136.6 197.3 79.6 422.000 males or females of hospital treatments.1 54. rheumatoid Arthritis ICD-10 AMM05-M06 *2008 figures are provisional for Ireland Rates per 100. It is found that caesarian section births bring additional risks of this kind.4 50.1 188. Systemic Sclerosis and Thyroiditis including Graves’ and Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis.2 285.8 2.5 53.7 101.0 22. The ratio of female to male incidence could be an indication of how such pregnancy related risk factors are taking effect.0 Male/ Female 2.1 Male/ Female 2. we may have an indication of how abortion compares with full term pregnancy as a risk factor for these diseases on the island by making international comparisons.9 Sweden (hospital Discharges) Sweden (Patients) England Finland (Hospital discharges) Finland (Patients) Scotland Ireland* Northern Ireland Irelands_Gain.7 228.8 136. Multiple Sclerosis. we have computed the odds ratios for this in table 22.1 425.1 136.3 2008 Female 322.2 3.6 1.6 1.000 2007 Male 110.
Ireland’s Gain 29 Table 22. Numbers of patients discharged 2005-2008 outside and inside two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland.8362 Male/Female Ratio 2.4 There is also some evidence for other diseases of the immune system such as some kinds of Thyroiditis and Sclerosis that male to female ratios are higher in Ireland in respect of cases admitted to hospitals.7995 Female 239769 29514 0.8176 0. Ireland & NI Ireland & NI Odds ratio 95% CI 81928 12334 0. rheumatoid Arthritis ICD-10 AMM05-M06 Male Countries not incl. the numbers are smaller and the differences in odds ratios less significant.indd 29 09/12/2011 08:46 . including Graves’ and Hashimoto’s thyroiditis that are more often treated at primary care level and not referred to hospitals. Irelands_Gain. Odds ratios and 95% CIs(Conﬁdence Intervals). For these other diseases.9 2.
2010. National Cancer registry. PLoS oNe May 6(5): e 19658. 8(2):46-49 www. 2010 Use of psychotropic drugs before pregnancy and the risk for induced abortion: Population based register data from Finland 1996-2006. and H Comber.org/vol12no3/carroll. Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007.pdf Gissler M. Steve Clements and roger Ingham. 7. Queen’s University. department of Health. 17. 5. Numbers of Legally Induced Abortions within Northern Ireland. 19. The role of fetal microchimerism in autoimmune disease.pdf A demographic portrait of Northern Ireland. dublin. BJ Psych 2011.pone. ritvanen A. Patrick Carroll. The Decline of Fertility in Scotland compared with England. Studies on ethnomedicine vol 5 Number 1 April 2011 pp1-10 http://www. 24.com/3071.ijcem. 12. Jan 2007. International Congress of Actuaries. Paris 2006 available at this UrL on the Congress website: http://www.btconnect. 16.pdf reardon dC. PAPrI and The Medical education trust.html The Demographic Impact of Legally Induced Abortion after 40 Years in Great Britain. 19. 15. rue VM. 25. Ney. Cancer Atlas of the United Kingdom and Ireland oNS London 2005. Numbers of Irish abortions in the Netherlands from Crisis Pregnancy Agency. .jpands. Numbers of Irish abortions in Scotland from ISd NHS in edinburgh.mededtrust. http://home. Central Survey Unit. dublin 2006. PG. BMd Public Health 10:383 http:// www. Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06. doi: 10. 22. 26.com/02-Journals/JSS/JSS-190-000-09-web/JSS-19-3-000-09-Abst-PdF/JSS-19-3-173-2009-850-Carroll-P/JSS-19-3-173-2009-850Carroll-P-tt. 18. 9. 10. Health Statistics Quarterly No 30 Summer 2006 pp15-21.001958 Miech r. d w donnelly.org/vol18no2/rooney. Kenny L C.com/02-Journals/S-eM/eM05-0-000-11-web/eM-05-1-000-11-Abst-PdF/eM-05-1-001-11-164-Carroll-P/eM-05-1-001-11-164Carroll-P-tt. 27. Population Trends 135 Spring 2009. 3.krepublishers. Psychiatric admissions of low-income women following abortion and childbirth. office for National Statistics. 2011 Pregnancy and the Risk of Autoimmune Disease. 11. Breast Cancer Epidemic: Modeling and Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors.199:180-186 Legally Induced Abortion: The Demographic Proﬁle and Hazards to the Health of Women.krepublishers. 20. J Am Physicians and Surgeons 2003. Abortion Statistics published annually by oNS and from 2002 by the department of Health for england & wales and by ISd-NHS Information and Statistics division of the National Health in Scotland for Scotland. Priscilla K Coleman.uk 8. Ulster Medicine Bill Highest in UK.ica2006. wahlbeck K. Calhoun BC Induce abortion and risk of later premature births.pdf Khashan A S.Sexual Health Information. Belfast News Letter 3 december 2010. 13. link: http://www. Journal of Social Sciences Vol. Canadian Medical Association Journal 2003. england & wales. London rooney B. London Mental Health Commission Annual Report 2010. JPANdS Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. Int J Clin exp Med 3(2):164-16 www. 14. 2.org .1371/journal.jpands. Laursen t M. a systematic review and meta-analysis. Risk Factors for low birth weight based on birth registration and census information. Northern Ireland Cancer registry and National Cancer registry(republic) Cancer Ireland 2011.com/papri and www.pdf Bakeo A C and Lynda Clarke. A t Gavin. Zao J 2009.org. Crisis Pregnancy Agency. Artama M. Irelands_Gain. 21.30 | reFereNCeS references 1. 4. April 2009. Social Safety and Public Health in Northern Ireland Improving knowledge regarding abortions performed on Irish women in the UK.com/UCeM1004004 Assessing the Damage.biomedcentral.indd 30 09/12/2011 08:46 . 23. Cork The. Mortensen P B et Al.com/content/pdf/1471-2458-10-383. BJoG 116 pp1425-1442 Abortion and mental health: quantitative synthesis and analysis of research published 1955-2009. Shah Ps. Belfast Induced termination of pregnancy and low birth weight and preterm birth.168:1253-1256 . Coleman PK. Mahmood U. Cougle J. Fall 2007 12: pp 72-78 http://www. dublin 2011. Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy register. Number 3 June 2009 pp 173-177. 6.papriresearch. Belfast. The Demographic Impact on Society and Consequences for the Health of Women of the 1967 Abortion Act over 40 Years. Cancer in Ireland 1994-2004: A comprehensive report. London 2007 www.
indd 31 09/12/2011 08:46 .Irelands_Gain.
papriresearch. is an actuary and statistician who has contributed several papers to the actuarial literature.A. F.indd 32 09/12/2011 08:46 . The charitable objects of pAprI include research into pensions.About the report The report discusses the consequences of the abortion laws in both Ireland and Northern Ireland compared to those elsewhere in respect of demography and the health of women on the island of Ireland since 1968. Demography. www. he is the author of previous works published by pAprI that include: pension Age in a Changing Society(1990).org price €7 uK £5 uS $10 ISbN 0-9514532-3-8 Irelands_Gain.A. Insurance and Investment.I. Abortion and other pregnancy related risk Factors in female breast Cancer(2001) and Assessing the Damage (2007).. About pAprI (Charity registration Number 327942) The pension and population research Institute was registered as a charity in 1979 in england with educational aims. About the Author patrick Carroll M.