Ireland’s Gain

The Demographic Impact and Consequences for the Health of Women of the Abortion Laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968

by Patrick Carroll

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Ireland’s Gain
The demographic Impact and Consequences for the Health of women of the Abortion Laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 Patrick Carroll

Published by PAPrI registered charity number 327942 in england Address PAPrI (Pension and Population research Institute) 35 Canonbury road London N1 2dG tel: +44 (0)20 7354 5667 Fax: +44 (0)20 7226 6601 email: papriresearch@btconnect.com

ISBN 0-9514532-3-8 December 2011

Publication accessible on the web site of the publishers www.papriresearch.org and http://home.btconnect.com/papri

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The study provides an in-depth ecological analysis that constitutes a unique insight into the effects. FACS. or lack thereof. medication usage for mental health. breast cancer rates. of national and regional policy to restrict termination of pregnancies.indd 4 09/12/2011 08:46 . Byron C. stillbirth rates. Public health officials and legislators responsible for shaping national and regional policies for women’s health must seriously engage the questions raised by the PAPrI report for the need to restrict and monitor termination of pregnancies. mental health resource usage. Md. Charleston Irelands_Gain. FACoG. The discussion of premature birth rates.4 Foreword The analysis by Patrick Carroll at PAPrI compares available statistical data on abortions carried out on women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland over the epoch1968-2010 with the corresponding data for Britain with regard to the demographic characteristics of the various parts of the two islands and discusses the implications for the health of women. Calhoun. and immunological disorders all point to an urgent need to examine more fully the impact of liberalization of abortion laws and their adverse impact on women’s health. MBA Professor & Vice-Chair Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology West Virginia University.

Liberalisation of abortion laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland can be expected to result in higher abortion rates and a corresponding deterioration in respect of these conditions affecting the health of women. This study avails of data supplied by the department of Health in London. and therefore especially damaging to their health. SUMMArY 1. Computing has been done by Alexandre Paul. The late age of women giving birth for the first time in Ireland and Northern Ireland. by the UK office for National Statistics. and some in the Netherlands.Ireland’s Gain 5 PreFACe whereas the scale of legally induced abortion in the developed countries of the world is large and many women have been affected by its consequences. who carried out the demographic work on population projections for the island of Ireland. an accumulation of UK data. small numbers in Scotland. restrictive laws on abortion have enabled the birth rate in Ireland and Northern Ireland to remain much higher than the european average. there has been. Ireland and Northern Ireland show a low incidence of maternal and infant conditions known to be abortion sequelae: still births. 3. in respect of women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland coming to england and wales for abortions since 1968. to which low abortion rates have contributed. such as large families for married couples in Ireland. cerebral palsy and maternal deaths. carried out on women who have had no previous full term pregnancy. in conjunction with higher parity progression on the island. Ireland and Northern Ireland also benefits from low incidence of breast cancer and comparatively good mental health among women and a low incidence of certain diseases of the immune system. Most abortions among women from the island of Ireland are believed to take place in england and wales but there is also reported some abortions taking place in Northern Ireland. Irelands_Gain. Sudhakar Brodie and tejas dhokalia. today birth rates on the island of Ireland are near to replacement level and the island benefits from a more youthful demographic profile with less dependence on immigration than other european countries. But these abortions are comparatively rare. ACKNowLedGeMeNtS Particular thanks are due to the Central Statistics office Ireland and office of National Statistics (UK) that have supplied the data. there are rather few studies of the demographic impact and of the impact on the health of women. low weight births whether in singleton or multiple births. notwithstanding the late age of childbearing in the island as a whole and the general trend to smaller families everywhere. and prior to 2002. Most abortions among women resident on the island are nulliparous. explains a high proportion of abortions among women resident on the island being nulliparous i. preterm or premature births. 2.e. Liberalisation of abortion laws in Ireland and Northern Ireland would result in a less youthful demographic profile with a smaller native population as illustrated for Northern Ireland in the period since 1968 and in Ireland for future years.indd 5 09/12/2011 08:46 . 4. Since the Britain’s 1967 Abortion Act was passed in westminster. distinct traditional features of demography on the island of Ireland are still apparent. however.

indd 6 09/12/2011 08:46 . Irelands_Gain.6 CoNteNtS Chapter 1 demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 Mental Health of women in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 Breast Cancer diseases of the Immune System 7 Chapter 2 16 Chapter 3 20 23 25 28 Chapter 4 Chapter 5. Chapter 6.

Numbers of induced abortions within Ireland are not reported and assumed to be zero. Abortion Statistics [1] for england & wales. these are also estimated for single year of age by spreading within 5-yearl age groups assuming the same distribution patterns as for Ireland. from Northern Ireland and Ireland. table 1 shows the trend in these numbers since 1968. Social Services and Public Safety in Northern Ireland [4]. where the numbers are smaller and supplied by 5-yearl age groups. gives the numbers for age groups of women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Legally Induced Abortions within Northern Ireland are reported in Sexual Health Information by the department of Health. we can compute age-specific Abortion rates for Ireland and for Northern Ireland. where a continuing pregnancy would have “a severe effect” on the health of the woman. and within Northern Ireland.indd 7 09/12/2011 08:46 .Ireland’s Gain 7 CHAPter 1 demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 due to the 1967 Abortion Act in Britain. totals of all ages from 15 to 45 then produce total Abortion rates or tArs. fewer than 100 per year in hospitals in Northern Ireland. and no recorded abortions in hospitals in Ireland. for the period shown in Figure 1. having abortions in Scotland[3]. There are some induced abortions. computed in the same way as total Fertility rates. Legally Induced Abortions became available to women in Ireland and Northern Ireland who travelled to Britain after April 1968 for an abortion. These tArs incorporate a proportionate allowance for abortions known to have taken place in Scotland and the Netherlands. Also to be counted are the numbers (assumed to be from Ireland) of women in recent years having Legally Induced Abortions in the Netherlands[2] and the numbers. Irelands_Gain. Table 1 Numbers of Legally Induced Abortions by Location for Women resident on the island of Ireland Year 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Eng & Wales 666 3585 4168 6655 4411 4379 Ireland Netherlands 134 31 Scotland 1 3 2 1 1 Eng & Wales 558 1432 1775 1574 1125 1082 Northern Ireland N. within Ireland and Northern Ireland older restrictive laws on abortion remain in force. Ireland 75 71 74 Scotland 2 3 3 2 2 By using the english and welsh data [1] for single year of age with the numbers at each age as numerators and with the corresponding mid-year female population as denominators.

Consequently. IrISH FertILItY The decline in fertility throughout europe since 1968 is also apparent in Ireland and Northern Ireland. A report for the Crisis Pregnancy Agency in dublin published in 2006 [5] on abortions performed on Irish women in the UK. The authors do not attribute the lower rates of abortion in both Ireland and Northern Ireland in recent years to an increase in women from these jurisdication giving addresses in Britain when travelling to it for abortions. says that with “the increasingly liberal views on sex and abortion in Irish society… the number of women giving false addresses is likely to be lower now than in the past. Irelands_Gain. which discusses the use of addresses in Britain by Irish resident women seeking abortions in Britain. This was the era of the Celtic tiger when there were especially good opportunities for paid employment for women in Ireland. The total Fertility rate is near to 2 in both parts of the island. Figure 2 shows the fertility trend. welsh or Scottish addresses at abortion clinics. but both jurisdications continue to show higher fertility rates. This is much higher than the european average tFr around 1. to the extent that this takes place these rates will be underestimates.4 and close to replacement level around 2. past rises in rates [up to 2001] may partly be due to women’s greater willingness to state they are from Ireland”.8 | CHAPter 1 – demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Figure 1 shows the higher abortion rates for Ireland in the late 1990s and early 2000s. which corresponds to a family of two children.indd 8 09/12/2011 08:46 . near to replacement level since the late 1990s. There have been suggestions that some women from the island go abroad for abortions to Britain reporting english.07 total Fertility rate. and also the corresponding tArs (total Abortion rates) for each year for Ireland.

50 2. 4.00 Rat 2.50 Rate 2.00 0.Ireland’s Gain 9 Figure 2 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Total Abortion Rates (TAR) Figure 2: Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Total Abortion Rates (TAR) Ireland.50 0.00 3.00 1.00 2.50 1.50 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Figure 3 shows these trends for Northern Ireland.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 TFR TAR Replacement Level 2. 1968-2010 1968-2010 Ireland.50 3.00 3.07 3. since the 1980s we can see a close match with replacement level of the total level of conceptions when fertility and abortion rates are combined.00 09/12/2011 08:46 .00 68 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2002009 2010 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1981983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year Figure 3: Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Total Abortion Rates (TAR) Northern Ireland.indd 9 2010 0. 1968-2010 4.50 TAR TFR Replacement Level 2. Again.07 4. Irelands_Gain.

10 | CHAPter 1 – demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Figure 4 shows these trends for england & wales. compared to the island of Ireland.7]. has been a further factor in the decline of fertility that has impacted Scotland. especially as more couples are exposed to the financial strain of purchasing their house with the effect of reducing parity progression. Irelands_Gain. The especially steep decline in fertility in Scotland can be linked to the decline in traditional industries that means young men in Scotland are less well placed to marry and assume family commitments. the parallel growth in service industries provides opportunities for women who are now claiming a greater share of educational and professional opportunities [6. The right of social housing tenants in the UK to buy the properties they are renting. This also shows a close match between replacement level and the total rate of all conceptions over most of the period. recently the english and welsh birth rate has risen. Figure 5 shows that Scotland has experienced a greater decline in fertility compared to england and wales over this period. [6.indd 10 09/12/2011 08:46 .7]. Also. Part of this recent increase is attributable to certain immigrant groups which have a higher fertility and are larger in england and wales.

20 0. table 2 illustrates that Irealnd continues to show this demographic distinctive to a greater degree than Northern Ireland. Indeed the average age at childbearing in Ireland and Northern Ireland continues to rise.13 0.indd 11 09/12/2011 08:46 . which are much nearer to replacement level than those of other parts of europe. as a proportion of all live births. while immigration into Northern Ireland has been much less than that into to england and wales.15 0. the birth rate in Northern Ireland has begun to converge but remains higher than the rates observed in England and in Wales.14 0. Table 2 TARs: Total Abortion Rates in island of Ireland and Britain 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 0.36 0. Ireland and Northern Ireland have exhibited a high birth rate.39 0. while both jurisdictions also manifest the modern trends of a decline in marriage and lower fertility.Ireland’s Gain 11 In Figures 2 to 5 there is an approximate match between the total Abortion rates and the shortfall below replacement level of the total Fertility rate.05 0. as shown in table 2. A specific point of interest is that all countries of the UK have experienced a similar upturn of greater than 10 per cent in birth rates since the lows of 2001/02.53 0.13 Northern Ireland 0. Lower abortion rates are apparently linked to higher fertility rates in Ireland and Northern Ireland.15 0. Irelands_Gain.29 0.09 England & Wales 0.51 0.”[8] Northern Ireland like elsewhere has seen a trend to later childbearing with a particular decline in the birth rate of women in their early twenties. notwithstanding a late age of marriage and late age of childbearing. there has been a significant contribution by mothers born abroad to the recent upswing in the Northern Ireland birth rate [8] deMoGrAPHIC dIStINCtIVeS ANd ABortIoNS: IreLANd ANd NortHerN IreLANd traditionally.22 0. But the report goes on to explain that there is some divergence: “While over the last century the birth rate in Scotland has converged with and then fallen below the rates in England and in Wales.33 0.14 0.45 0.13 0.39 A report in Population trends 2009 [8] said “the historical pattern in crude birth rates for each of the four UK countries is very similar”.04 0. in conjunction with a growth in extra-marital births. Just how low abortion rates in Ireland and Northern Ireland are compared to those in Britain is shown by table 2. This pattern continues.28 0.52 Scotland 0.10 0.36 0. Average ages at which women give birth to their first child are shown in table 3.

9 England & Wales 26.1 28. the traditional pattern whereby women in Northern Ireland and especially those in Ireland started their families later than in england and wales.5 In 2010 it still true to say that on the island of Ireland have their children at a later age than those in england and wales with this pattern more pronounced in Ireland.5 Northern Ireland 27.0 26.6 29.0 29.6 27. was still apparent and the traditional pattern of later childbirth in Ireland compared to Northern Ireland is also still apparent in 2009.5 25. while Northern Ireland has an intermediate age of childbearing between Ireland and england & wales.9 Northern Ireland 24.3 31.4 29.3 27.6 28. There has been a greater participation by females in higher and further education in england and wales during this period and greater professional career opportunities for women. Northern Ireland and England & Wales.3 31.6 England & Wales 24. the rise has been more pronounced in england and wales since 1971.2 26.indd 12 09/12/2011 08:46 .5 30.5 29.5 29. 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 29. Northern Ireland and England & Wales 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 25.2 while the average age at first birth in Ireland and Northern Ireland has risen.8 27.12 | CHAPter 1 –demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 Table 3 Average ages of women at birth of first child in Ireland. Table 4 Average ages at Childbearing in Ireland.4 29.8 29. In 1971.6 27.4 28.6 30. table 4 shows these trends in respect of the average age at childbirth for all children.6 26.2 25.0 25.9 29.0 29. Irelands_Gain.

making use of tables kindly supplied by Vital Statistics at the Central Statistical office in Ireland and Census NISrA in Northern Ireland. less than 54% of single mothers giving birth are having their first child in Northern Ireland. But there is a paradox in the conjunction of a higher proportion married in Northern Ireland compared with Ireland and the higher proportion in Northern Ireland of extra-marital births compared with Ireland. Numbers and Proportions for 2009 Total Number Proportion (%) Number Proportion (%) 49. while the proportion in Ireland is less than 18%. It is apparent that there is a higher parity progression within marriage in Ireland.289 53. over 18% of those born outside marriage in Northern Ireland have already two or more siblings.8% 5. we find it is higher in Northern Ireland.3% Ireland Northern Ireland when we consider parity progression outside marriage shown in table 6. compared to less than 28% in Northern Ireland.2% 5. Irelands_Gain. while income tax reliefs give more assistance in Ireland to married couples to have larger families.3% 5.801 35.008 100% 0 17.883 15.803 28. And larger families are more in evidence in Ireland where over 30% of those born within marriage already have 2 or more siblings. In Ireland there are child tax allowances to determine Income tax paid by parents.2% in Northern Ireland.062 33. Previous Live Born Children.444 36. Less than 36% of married mothers giving birth in Ireland in 2009 are having their first child while the proportion is over 36% in Northern Ireland.746 100% 15. that includes Northern Ireland.550 55.724 4.8% 4. In 2009.810 18. Numbers and Proportions for 2009 Total Number Proportion (%) Number Proportion (%) 24.indd 13 09/12/2011 08:46 . Table 5 Live Births within Marriage.4% 2. are more generous and assist single parents to add to their families to a greater extent than in Ireland. while in the UK.190 27. In 2009. in Ireland.3% 1.4% Previous Live Born Children 1 2 and more 6.532 100% 9.9% 30. Larger single parent families are more in evidence in Northern Ireland.374 35.902 100% 0 13. whereas Ireland continues to manifest the demographic distinctive of late marriage.3% Previous Live Born Children 1 2 and more 16.Ireland’s Gain 13 Figure 6 shows the proportion married at ages 25-29 when young women are likely to marry and start a family. Previous Live Born Children. to examine this paradox we might consider parity progression in the two jurisdictions. It seems welfare benefits in Northern Ireland. as in the rest of the UK.258 27. Live Births outside Marriage. Table 6. There is a consistency between the higher proportion married and high birth rate in Northern Ireland and the low abortion rate there.4% 17. 67% of births were to married parents but this ratio was 60. whereas more than 55% are doing so in Ireland. Northern Ireland maintains a relatively high marriage rate.9% Ireland Northern Ireland table 5 shows this within Marriage for 2009.

802 4.902 %Nulliparous 75. There is known to be a high inverse correlation between marital status and abortion rates.79 Nulliparous 441 965 1.106 1.51 67. Higher parity progression in Northern Ireland among single parents contributes to the especially low rate of parous abortions there.500 Ireland Parous 136 1.81 56.910 1.11 66.512 2.480 2. where the woman has not previously had a full term pregnancy.192 936 609 566 Northern Ireland Parous 188 486 587 641 514 535 %Nulliparous 70.indd 14 09/12/2011 08:46 .85 56. trends in abortions and especially the changing pattern of Nulliparous Abortions. the nulliparous abortion rate is less than half the england and wales rate in the 1980s.479 1.00 59.411 2. compared with Parous abortions in both Irish jurisdictions also reflect these marriage trends.41 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Irelands_Gain.89 69.23 51.194 2. while the high proportion married there corresponds to the especially low rate of nulliparous abortions. In both Ireland and Northern Ireland . Nulliparous 428 2. Figure 7 shows the relative sizes of Nulliparous and Parous total Abortion rates in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968.16 66. Table 7 Number of women resident in Ireland and Northern Ireland having Parous nd Nulliparous Abortions in England during selected Years since 1968.35 54.51 62. with married women having a much lower incidence of abortion.14 | CHAPter 1 – demographic Context: Legally induced abortions among women resident on island of Ireland since 1968 there are Child Credits subject to means-testing that are especially useful to single parents. These are derived from age specific tabulations supplied by the department of Health in London [1].

indd 15 09/12/2011 08:46 . the increased proportion of parous abortions in recent years can be linked to the growth in single parenting and the decline in marriage.Ireland’s Gain 15 The percentage of nulliparous abortions at around 57% in 2010 in the Ireland remains higher than in england & wales. Irelands_Gain. This reflects the continuing demographic distinctives of late marriage. it reflects the lower proportion of births outside wedlock on the island. In both jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. late childbearing and higher birth rates in the two jurisdictions and by comparison with england & wales. The very low Northern Ireland rate for nulliparous abortions can be linked to the higher proportion of women married in the age group 25-29 as shown above in Figure 6.

Table 8 shows the changed demographic profile in Scotland over the last ten years. the system of social housing provision is similar in both jurisdictions and as already alluded to social housing tenants who rent from the Housing executive in Northern Ireland or from local authorities in Scotland have the right to buy their home. Furthermore.79 16. The same taxation and welfare systems that affect families with children are in operation in both Northern Ireland and Scotland. if the abortion law had been liberalised. table 9 summaries how this hypothetical population development (II) compares with the official historic estimates(I) of the population of Northern Ireland. In this projection it was also assumed that the experienced rates of mortality and migration were unaltered.91 66. 100. Scotland has a similar cultural and religious tradition to Northern Ireland and socio-economic conditions are also similar with both parts of the UK experiencing a significant decline in traditional industries.8 52. ortion laws. The Northern Ireland fertility rate since 1968 was reduced by the difference between the estimated abortion rates in Scotland and Northern Ireland after a six months time lag. CHAPter 2 Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws.05 15.16 | CHAPter 2 – Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws.9 33.000s Persons 0-14 % 15-64 % 65+ % Total % 2001 9.9 8.07 17.2 8.9 50.0 A 1968 based population projection has been calculated to illustrate the effect of assuming Scottish abortion rates applied to Northern Ireland since 1968 with a correspondingly reduced fertility rate in Northern Ireland over the period. provides a guide to what might have been the experience in Northern Ireland. NortHerN IreLANd SINCe 1968 what might have been the demographic impact of applying the 1967 Abortion Act to Northern Ireland? Scotland.52 16. where the westminster 1967 Abortion Act applies.0 2010 8.22 100. Irelands_Gain.62 100.3 34.indd 16 09/12/2011 08:46 .50 66.

In Germany and Japan it has been found increasingly difficult to recover from recession because of lack of consumer demand on the part of an aged population and there is a greater reliance on exports for any future economic upswing.4 23.66 10.84 Ireland % 21.85 39.41 9.24 2.43 65.9 2.0 13.77 64. nearly 20%.9 20.23 126.9 17.indexmundi.3 15.43 15.44 3.81 11.70 3.0 61.60 14.07 15.08 2.0 12.6 1. has made possible lower PrSI (Pay related Social Insurance) Contributions which are less than social security costs in other developed countries.7 1.0 2.8 17. it was 17.66 1.8 100.9 56.06 I – Historic Population Male and Female II – Projected Population with Adjusted Fertility This projection indicates that if Scottish abortion rates had applied to Northern Ireland with a corresponding reduction in the Northern Irish birth rate over the period 1968 to 2010.37 1981 I II 4.2 16.60 2.7 16. table 10 shows the comparison with the UK and Germany and Japan for 2001 of the distribution of the Irish population over three age groups.98 62.15 3.34 21.6 67.8million for 2010.72 24.2 12.03 19.2 2.0 Sources: national web sites and http://www.99 17. the Northern Ireland population would be 1.07 9.99 22.51 60.41 61.8 16.18 59. In 2010 the age group 0-14 was 19.03 Germany Number % 15.5 15.99 26. 100.24 13.7 63.4 10.55 85.4% of the population in Ireland in 2001.com whereas the over 65 age group accounted for 11.53 29.83 2.18 9.indd 17 09/12/2011 08:46 .95 10.3 13.6 100.1 11.5% in Japan.5 100.57 4.71 million in 2010 in contrast to the official estimate of 1.8 10.0 66. Irelands_Gain.58 0.28 1991 I II 3.6 10.Ireland’s Gain 17 Table 9 .8 83.27 % 18.9%.93 9.6 67.88 1.92 3. Total Population 2001 (Millions) UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 10. Summary table for Northern Ireland. Table 10.6 59. with a higher proportion in the working ages and a lower proportion in the older age groups.88 12. The more youthful population in Ireland.0 Number 18.1 9.08 13.6 67.77 Japan % 14.6 29.000s Persons.0 Number 0. of the population.5 9.34 2010 I II 3.2 15.8 65.3 13.58 3.89 16.78 2001 I II 3. But if Scottish abortion rates had applied this proportion would be less than 18%.3 17.8 15. Age Group 0-14 % 15-64 % 65+ % Total 1971 I II 4.9 26. deMoGrAPHIC ProSPeCtS For IreLANd How might the future demographic profile change with liberalisation of the abortion law? Presently Ireland enjoys a youthful demographic profile that compares favourably with other developed countries.4 100.6 67. The projection also shows an older demographic profile for 2010 than is now reported. In the UK Pensionable Age has been raised as a way of managing the increased cost burden of paying old-age pensions when the cost is to be spread over a relatively reduced population of working age.40 15.7 11.

93 126.1 20.8 19.9% of the Japanese population but only 11.3 19.0 III Number 0.0 Germany Number 10. Irelands_Gain.60 80. over age 65.3 100.54 4.92 74.77 81.4 59.97 4.77 117.1 66.4 66.com Here we can note the elderly.2 64.0 table 12 shows a less youthful profile for Irealnd in future years for Projection I.3 59.14 0.98 % 14.4 64.indexmundi.6% of the Irish population. Official and Projected Population 2021 (Millions of Persons) Ireland UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 11.87 3. The results are shown in table 12 for 2021 and 2031 comparing the results with the UK and Japan.77 4.0 II Number 0.6 100.70 % 17.0 27.0 Sources: national web sites and http://www.4 19. have been made.7 100.9 65.1 64.77 5. tion laws.90 % 17.6 100.0 Japan Number 16.57 0.6 100.94 28.0 22. 12a.9 100.94 % 18.0 II Number 0.72 1. are 22. to reflect liberalisation of the abortion law.88 41.32 0.1 15.6 100.5 100.7 66.58 34.58 % 11.23 69. Projection II was as specified on the CSo web site with assumptions of high migration and fertility.34 62.0 III Number 1.29 15.0 Japan Number 13.0 Ireland Number 0. According to this projection children aged under 15 will be less than 15% of the population in 2031.2 21. Table 12.8 63.34 12. Zero net migration and a 1% per annum reduction in mortality from 2010 was assumed.2 100.99 3.1 67.75 % 16.99 43.66 123.77 4.47 70.48 % 13.47 % 13.18 | CHAPter 2 – Population projections to illustrate how Fertility and demographic Profile in Ireland and Northern Ireland might change with liberalisation of abortion laws.70 3.03 5.36 % 19.85 16.3 11.indd 18 09/12/2011 08:46 .90 67.97 5.3 66.27 0. Official and Projected Population 2030 (Millions) Ireland UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 11.94 3.5 100.2 29.90 3. forward projections based a midyear 2010 population for Ireland obtained from the CSo web site.7 100.9 100.69 % 16.6 15.30 0. Table 11 Total Population 2011 (Millions) UK Age 0-14 15-64 65+ Total Number 10.85 53.95 42. Projection II assumed that fertility remained constant at 2010 levels in Ireland.02 3.19 % 17.6 14.4 100. to illustrate how the future prospects for the demographic profile of Ireland might be affected by liberalisation of the abortion law. Projection 1 assumed that abortion rates in Ireland increase linearly over 10 years to converge with 2010 Scottish abortion rates with a corresponding reduction in fertility from 2010 rates.28 34.3 66.9 61.0 I Number 0.79 3.2 16.48 10.0 12b.57 % 13.27 0.0 100.67 % 21.0 19.0 I Number 0. ortbor- The trend continued with a greater divergence manifest in 2011 as shown in table 11.0 Japan Number 16.08 % 16.

http://www. assuming Abortion rates converges linearly over ten years to the Scottish rates and zero net migration II .Ireland’s Gain 19 SoUrCeS • • • • • • • total Population for Ireland.2010 Fertility rates with zero net migration for 2010 estimates.Adjusted Fertility rates. 2006 based III .html I .uk/demography%20data/Population/index aspx?y=2006&v=Principal data for Japan Population Projection .wikipedia.go.000 per annum in 2031/2036 +10.000 per annum in 2011/2016 +25.ipss.http://www.http://en.indd 19 09/12/2011 08:46 .indexmundi. Germany and Japan for 2001 and all data for the year 2011 .000 per annum in 2006/2011 +35.000 per annum in 2016/2021 +10.000 per annum in 2026/2031 +10.com total Population for UK for 2001 .000 per annum in 2021/2026 +10.gad.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/t_1_e.org/wiki/demography_of_the_United Kingdom data for UK Population Projection – http://www.gov.official as on CSo website with assumptions for fertility and migration as below (Method M2F2) F2: tFr to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter M2: Immigration continuing at more moderate levels +50.000 per annum in 2036/2041 Irelands_Gain.

Presumably the lower incidence of induced abortion among women in Ireland and Northern Ireland has helped to accomplish this health gain.5 74.6 71.0 76. whereby Northern Irelands_Gain.4 71.1 52.1 53.5 62.4 59.0 39.8 57. England & Wales and Scotland 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 18.7 75.0 49.2 3.8 56. Low weight Births (under 2500g) per 1000 Live births.7 5.9 48.4 45.4 59. Table 13.2 63.8 74. we have UK and Irish l data for stillbirths as shown in table 13.4 4.7 40.1 65.20 | CHAPter 3 – Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 CHAPter 3.7 72.7 52.8 49.0 49.5 45. Stillbirth Rate per 1000 live births in Ireland.4 52.2 71. Table 14.9 49.3 39.2 38.8 60.3 Scotland All Singleton 71.8 4.9 Scotland 12.3 Ireland Singleton 37.6 75.3 5. Northern Ireland. where abortions are more common.indd 20 09/12/2011 08:46 .6 5.7 74. The proportion of low weight multiple birth can be influenced by use of modern fertility treatments that lead to multiple births. rates of still births in the two jurisdictions are now lower than those in Britain.3 53. The difference between the Ireland and Northern Ireland.2 5. This is shown in table 14 and can be linked to the lower incidence of induced abortion among women on the island of Ireland.2 55.4 57.8 72. to a greater extent than the authors explained by deprivation or socio-economic conditions.8 4. There has been a noticeably greater improvement in Ireland and Northern Ireland in this rate over the period than in england & wales and Scotland.2 77.6 69.5 55.4 56.3 66.0 8.3 50.5 6.7 51.7 71.9 68.5 57.8 57.3 36.4 54.1 England & Wales 13.5 55.6 51.2 38.1 For the period since 1968.1 50.6 59.0 49.6 5.2 41.8 75.8 Northern Ireland 14.4 67.0 53.9 49.8 62.3 8. Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 There is known to be higher risks of Stillbirths and Premature Births (and also of Low weight babies born) when women have had previous induced abortions.2 61.7 5.0 59.3 6.0 65.9 61.4 59.3 36.0 59.3 5.3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ireland has a much lower incidence of low weight babies (less than 2500gm) born than england & wales and Northern Ireland also has a lower incidence of this condition. The risk of women giving birth prematurely following an abortion that can leave a woman with residual damage has long been recognised [9].1 58. All 49.6 4.8 60.7 Northern Ireland All Singleton 61.1 62.8 64.5 5. english studies [10] have shown that the rate of low weight babies is much higher among unmarried mothers.6 71.4 59.8 50.5 68.3 50.4 38.2 7.0 38.2 54.7 3.1 England & Wales All Singleton 75.1 4.

6 11.6 8.8 10.7 Scotland 73.6 7.3 12.9 8.3 69.6 9.Ireland’s Gain 21 Ireland has proportionately more low weight babies.0 44.0 11.0 10.4 8.9 11.9 10.10 2.8 12. Numbers per annum and rates.1 9.6 8.4 9.5 6.5 11.4 11.3 6.5 11.6 12.7 51.1 12.8 12. 77-08 98-08 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Number of Cases 55 50 56 47 51 40 44 Rate (per 1.7 11.4 8. Table 15.2 8.[11] Irelands_Gain.8 8.5 n/a 11. Very low weight Births (under 1500g) per 1000 Live births.2 7. Ireland and Great Britain All 8. is consistent with the higher proportion of births outside marriage in Northern Ireland.3 9.8 8.2 6.21 2.7 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 table 15 shows a similar pattern in respect of very low weight births.0 6.0 11.2 10.7 10.1 8.7 10.2 12.4 9.1 8. Scotland has an abortion rate that is intermediate between england & wales and that in Ireland and Northern Ireland but has a higher proportion of births outside wedlock than england.9 10.7 39. poor diet and smoking that are conducive to low birth weight.2 10. Unmarried women are more likely to exhibit other risk factors such as deprivation. as shown in table 16 and this measure is not affected by genetic characteristics of Asians.9 75.7 7.9 Northern Ireland n/a England & Wales 72.3 8.19 2.5 10.1 8.2 Northern Ireland All Singleton 9.72 Source: register of Cerebral Palsy in Northern Ireland. Belfast.5 6.0 12.indd 21 09/12/2011 08:46 .0 England & Wales All Singleton 12.1 73.0 6. Table 16.8 50.6 6.0 11.0 Scotland All Singleton 10.5 12.51 2.8 7.8 69.4 10.5 8.3 12.6 11.5 12.0 11.4 43. especially in the former.6 CereBrAL PALSY Table 17.8 11. Some of the higher incidence of low weight births in england is attributable to a more numerous community of Asian origin who have lower birth weights as a genetic tendency.6 8. New cases of Cerebral Palsy in Northern Ireland. Preterm Births rate per 1000 live 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 Ireland 43.8 10.1 70.7 14.3 6. But preterm births measured as of less than 37 weeks gestational age are also of less frequent occurrence in Ireland and Northern Ireland.7 8.9 12.1 43.6 10.64 1.9 45.19 1.5 Ireland Singleton 6.000 live births) 2.

indd 22 09/12/2011 08:46 .0 0.03. over the period since 1968. For the United Kingdom as a whole the rate of cerebral palsy is understood to be around 1 in 400 live births or 2.0 Ireland Northern Ireland 25.000 live 1968 to 2010 30. Northern Ireland.0 England & Wales Scotland 20. Figure 8 Comparison of the Maternal Death Rate per 100.(Shah et al 2009)[12] This analysis finds the preterm birth rate in Northern Ireland is low and there is a low rate of premature births in Northern Ireland. These findings suggest the critical necessity to further evaluate the effects of abortion on preterm birth.0 68 to 72 to 74 to 76 to 78 to 80 to 82 to 84 to 86 to 88 to 90 to 92 to 94 to 96 to 98 to 00 to 02 to 04 to 06 to 08 to 10 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 whereas Ireland has shown considerable improvement in this measure. where the numbers are small. Northern Ireland.0 15. It is among premature births that cerebral palsy is especially common. In Ireland the trend in maternal deaths during the period since 1968 has come to compare more favourably with Britain as shown in Figure 8. while the register of Cerebral Palsy in Northern Ireland still operates other registers in the UK have ceased operations.21 per 1000 live births with the average rate in the last 5 years to 2008 being 2.22 | CHAPter 3 – Maternal Health and Neonatal Health of Infants in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 table 17 shows how the number of cases of cerebral palsy recorded by the Northern Ireland register has tended to average around 50 per annum in Northern Ireland since the 1998 and the rate has been around that 2. Year Irelands_Gain. England & Wales and Scotland Rate per 100.5 per thousand.0 10.000 livebirths in Ireland.0 5. [12] Public health officials and MLAs must thoroughly evaluate this women’s health not only for its impact on the healthcare infrastructure but for its impact on women’s health and the family MAterNAL deAtHS Abortion laws have been liberalised in countries where there have been large numbers of maternal deaths attributable to clandestine abortions. has historically had very few maternal deaths but has recently seen some deterioration. especially in the light of new information in preterm birth in its relationship to abortion.

there were 110% more claims for adjustment reaction. there is an increase in use of anti-depressants.9 England & Wales 8. data from NHS Prescription Statistics in Britain and the Primary Care reimbursement Agency in Ireland enable comparisons of usage in Ireland with Britain for 8 of the most popular treatments of this kind. nearly 10% of the incidence of mental health problems was shown to be attributable to abortion”. multiyear.[16] However. USe oF PSYCHotroPIC ANtI-dePreSSANtS IN IreLANd ANd NortHerN IreLANd In Ireland and Northern Ireland.1 4. For the Ireland. et al. those with abortions (some 15.000 women with no prior psychiatric health claims in the year prior. the Primary Care reimbursement Agency covers the payment of these treatments for a large part of the population. Making allowance for the size of the populations. 90% for single depressive psychosis.2 4.9 9.6 3. long term (almost 40 years of data) ecological studies like the present one with maternal mental health outcomes. database suggest to public health officials and legislators. Irelands_Gain.1 5.3 3. The rates of suicide among those from the island of Ireland have been lower in the period since 1968. Previous work by reardon.4 Northern Ireland 3.8 5.000 women in the Ireland. while the UK National Health Service covers the whole population in wales and Scotland and Northern Ireland.” SUICIde Table 18. It was also concluded that “increased risk occurred …pertained to substance abuse and suicidal behaviour.7 5.1 4. Northern Ireland. do allow for questions regarding the impact of abortion on mental health to be brought to the attention of legislators and public health organizations. 110% for recurrent depressive psychosis.2 3.4 table 18 compares the national suicide rates for women on the islands of Britain and Ireland. Again. that. and. both before they have abortions [14. caution must be exercised when comparing different demographic groups. Use of antidepressants is particularly associated with women who have abortions. England & Wales and Scotland. and 200% increase in bipolar disorder. these findings in a large.1 5.4 7.15] and post abortion.indd 23 09/12/2011 08:46 .2 7. 1971 1981 1991 2001 2009 2010 Ireland 3. 2003[16]. Across the 4 years studied.4 8. Female suicide rate per 100.6 Scotland 6. Further analysis of this finding in the context of confounding variables would be useful. However.8 3. found using inpatient mental health claims in almost 60. as elsewhere.Ireland’s Gain 23 CHAPter 4 Mental Health of women in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 A recently published paper in the British Journal of Psychiatry 2011 (Coleman)[13] has reported that the risks of mental illness post abortion are increased: “Women who had undergone an abortion experienced an 81% increased risk of mental health problems. this comparison suggests that consumption of these is less in Ireland. the need to address these findings in their populations.000+) had 160% more total mental health claims within 90 days of their abortion compared to those giving birth.

women without medical cards in Ireland have to pay for anti-depressants. In Ireland. the prescribing of drugs without a charge may have led to overprescribing. Irelands_Gain.[20] The findings in this report confirm the urgent need to explore the impact of abortion services on women’s health in Ireland.indd 24 09/12/2011 08:46 . In Northern Ireland and Scotland. The former Health Minister Michael McGimpsey described it as “the end of a tax on illness”. The Mental Health Commission Annual report 2010 [18] found that Involuntary Admissions to mental health hospitals over the years 2007 to 2010 dropped 8% from 2126 to 1952. of whom 34% were female. which reported the data on its web site. a €0.[20] dr Brian dunn of the British Medical Association’s Northern Ireland Council attributed the high usage of antidepressant drugs to the legacy of the troubles and poor mental health services. which are quite expensive but are reimbursed of the excess if the total monthly cost of their prescriptions exceeds €120 and this last group are counted in the above data for Ireland. London “The proportion of women (aged 16 to 64) suffering a common mental disorder (CMD) – typically depression or anxiety – increased from 19. In Ireland there seem not to have been recent surveys of mental health. Usage may be less in Ireland. In Northern Ireland.50 charge has been introduced for those who have medical cards.24 | CHAPter 4 – Mental Health of women in Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1968 there is heavy usage of these eight commonly prescribed anti-depressants. the Health and Social wellbeing Survey 2005/06 [19] found that 21% of women were likely to show signs of a mental health problem. In england.5 per cent in 2007…The largest increase in rate of CMD was in women aged 45-64 among whom the rate rose by a fifth.40 charge that has been waived elsewhere in the UK. which is slightly lower than the corresponding figure of 23% showing such signs in the British Psychiatric Morbidity Survey [17]. Prescription charges in Northern Ireland were scrapped from April 1 in 2010. most prescriptions of anti-depressants are dispensed free of charge but some pay the £7. Northern Ireland and Britain.1 per cent in 1993 to 21. even after allowing for the fact that many women in the State do not have medical cards and are not covered by the schemes administered by the Primary Care reimbursement Agency.” [17] These more recent cohorts of women in england have experienced a higher abortion rate. According to Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007. women’s mental health has deteriorated in england. CMds were especially common among black women [17] among whom there is also a higher abortion rate.

2 274. In Ireland. An early age at first birth and breastfeeding are protective against breast cancer. There appears to have been an increase in incidence in 2000-2002 at the start of the national breast screening programme in the east of the country.7 275.7 219.1 271.000 Women aged 45-49 and 50-54 45-49 163.5 180.2 CHAPter 5 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Breast cancer is known to vary in incidence with the effects of hormonal and reproductive risk factors. The same report [22] found in respect of incidence across both jurisdiction on the island that “incidence rates during 1998-2000 were lower than in the EU (15 countries).8 178. also covering women over 50.7 177.5% lower in Northern Ireland than in Ireland during 200-2004.1 Northern Ireland 45-49 50-54 177.7 187.4 177.5 242.indd 25 09/12/2011 08:46 . and a second increase in 2007 with the roll out of this programme to the rest of Ireland. breast cancer rates among women in Ireland and Northern Ireland from 1999 to 2007 were lower on average than rates among those in Britain.2 45-49 185.1 178.3 289.2 Scotland 50-54 266. especially in situ cancers. [21] found a low rate of female breast cancer incidence throughout the island of Ireland.7 184.2 258. published in 2005.4 182. That epidemiological study used several years of data 1994-99 from Ireland.Ireland’s Gain 25 Breast Cancer. where cancer registration commenced in 1993.3 300.6 292. where registration commenced in 1994. In the latter there has been a more recent introduction of digital screening machines. UK. Irelands_Gain. USA.3 179. which are more efficient at detecting cancers.3 113.” Table 19 Malignant Breast Cancer Incidence rate per 100.4 115.9 196.8 Ireland 50-54 227. Screening starts at age 50 in the UK.9 160.8 202. though some women receive letters inviting screening at age 49.5 253.2 282.5 178.5 135. The low incidence of breast cancer in Ireland and Northern Ireland is the more remarkable when the tradition of late childbearing on the island is noted in conjunction with the comparative neglect of breast feeding. including Northern Ireland. There are also apparent year-on-year fluctuations in rates. The UK screening programme started in Britain to cover age groups 50 to 64 and reached full population coverage around 1994 and in Northern Ireland it started in 1993. which is all the more remarkable as screening over that period was more developed in Northern Ireland.4 185.9 262. As shown in table 19. and 1993-1999 from Northern Ireland. Cancer Ireland 2011 [23] reports: “Breast cancer incidence has generally been increasing with an average APC of 1.0 306.2 185.9 for the period 1994-2009.3 176. some of which is attributable to the effects of breast cancer screening programmes that cover women in rotation by age.3 181.4 262.0 213.6 92.2 167.2 191.”.9 208.7 201.7 196.1 260. The Cancer Atlas of the United Kingdom and Ireland.6 150. the screening programme started later in 2000. Canada and Australia”. Cancer in Ireland: A comprehensive report published in April 2009[22] found for female breast cancer (malignant ICd10-C50) “incidence rates were 3. The especially low incidence rates in Northern Ireland can be regarded as consistent with the Northern Ireland’s lower abortion rate from the 1970s compared to Ireland.9 257.7 184.9 England & Wales 45-49 50-54 170.3 253.7 265.1 171.1 271. But the low incidence of breast cancer among women from the island of Ireland becomes more explicable if the low abortion rate among women from the island is acknowledged as a relevant factor in conjunction with the continuation of higher fertility.2 134.

The trend in recent Irelands_Gain. induced abortion prior to first term pregnancy and preterm delivery prior to 32 weeks. Correlation Coefficient: 0. and hormonal treatments such as Hormone replacement Therapy and oral Contraceptives are positive risk factors. High correlations between cohort abortion and breast cancer rates in both jurisdictions and elsewhere [24] suggest that the cumulated cohort abortion rates can be useful predictors of incidence trends in female breast cancer. a late age at first birth. These figures also show the cumulated abortion rates for the same cohorts of women.26 | CHAPter 5 – Brest Cancer whereas childbearing and breast feeding are protective against breast cancer.54 Correlation Coefficient : 0. More stable than the yearly incidence rates are the cumulated cohort rates (being less reflective of variations in screening activity). childlessness.indd 26 09/12/2011 08:46 . Figure 10 shows how these show small increases in recent years for Northern Ireland and Figure 11 shows how these have shown some increase for Ireland.77 Figure 11 shows breast cancer incidence discovered within ages 50 to 54 in Ireland.

indd 27 09/12/2011 08:46 .0 1117 1161 1185 1208 1232 1134 984 1159 1168 1204 94.427 40.6 122.0 345 354 364 373 383 439 444 414 456 432 127. where relatively small increases in incidence were anticipated. N.2 113. Number of Cases In Situ Breast Cancer Incidence in Ireland. from their higher abortion rates prior to first term delivery and lower birth rates. Number of cases of Breast Cancer Incidence.3 113.2 97. These covered Northern Ireland and Ireland.3 Table 20B.0 3848 3953 4058 4163 4268 4445 4676 4854 5122 5077 115.8 97.3 1224 1250 1276 1303 1329 1187 1090 1303 1302 1374 97.1 100.9 84.601 47.3 117.3 101.5 102.3 176. Forecast and Observed Breast Cancer Incidence Table 20A.1 99.7 110. and england & wales and Scotland.5 100.7 101.8 122. Ireland and Britain Observed v Predicted Ireland Year 05 06 07 08 09 Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Northern Ireland Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) England & Wales Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Expected Scotland Obs/ Observed Exp(%) 2499 2547 2595 2642 2690 2405 2493 2721 3126 3156 96.325 44. Forecasts were published in 2007 [24] for 8 european countries of breast cancer incidence in future years.5 118.3 100.2 112.3 119.8 96. Irelands_Gain.1 103.0 119.0 102.866 45.5 98.0 103.9 130.2 102.0 100.0 118.261 103. table 20 shows how these forecasts have performed for the years since 2005 up to 2009 for Ireland . england & wales and Scotland. progress with screening has brought an increase in detection of in situ cancers and this has been especially true of Ireland since 2007.4 96. Predicted Ireland Year 05 06 07 08 09 Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Northern Ireland Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) England & Wales Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Expected Scotland Obs/ Observed Exp(%) 2336 2381 2426 2470 2515 2195 2289 2503 2808 2766 95.5 99. These forecasts used modelling in which abortion rates and fertility rates are the two explanatory variables.7 97.0 87.9 Table 20C.073 46.0 100.8 104.430 45.9 105.754 40.6 123.018 41.488 48.2 125.Ireland’s Gain 27 years has shown small increases until the last two years. Ireland and Britain Observed v Predicted Ireland Year 05 06 07 08 09 Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Northern Ireland Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) England & Wales Expected Obs/ Observed Exp(%) Expected Scotland Obs/ Observed Exp(%) 163 166 169 172 175 177 204 221 318 390 108.4 97.7 40.854 40. Malignant and In Situ in Ireland.6 156.695 45.222 43.3 Across the board.1 96.9 87 89 92 94 97 108 106 144 134 170 124. where larger increases were forecast.747 42.738 48.184 102.8 98. Northern Ireland.1 4308 4421 4534 4648 4761 4513 4600 4555 4774 4824 104.9 142. Number of Cases of Malignant Breast Cancer Observed v.9 222. Table 20.616 43.2 99.8 184.120 42.1 118.2 3917 4067 4171 4274 4378 3996 4156 4141 4318 4392 102. N.299 45.4 43.280 47.

0 22.2 3. The transfer of foetal cells to the mother in pregnancy and at labour can give rise to adverse reaction in the mother with certain conditions and diseases becoming more prevalent. where the numbers for the two jurisdictions are aggregated and the numbers for all regions summed for the period2005 to 2008. The ratio of female to male incidence could be an indication of how such pregnancy related risk factors are taking effect. Systemic Sclerosis and Thyroiditis including Graves’ and Hashimoto’s Thyroiditis.1 425. Multiple Sclerosis.6 197.3 Female 301. table 21 shows how incidence of hospital cases of rheumatoid Arthritis compare in several european countries.1 14.9 2.7 3. It is found that caesarian section births bring additional risks of this kind. Rates per 100.3 2008 Female 322.1 Male/ Female 2. Table 21.2 92.6 1.7 228. [25] In a similar way it is thought that induced abortions can also be occasions of transfer of foetal cells so as to produce a reaction in the mother conducive to diseases such as rheumatoid Arthritis.1 3.4 198.2 285.000 males or females of hospital treatments.4 50.3 605.1 185. diseases of the Immune System.000 2007 Male 110. when the birth rate continues to be high in Ireland and Northen Ireland and the incidence of induced abortions among women resident in these jurisdictions low.6 238.8 2. we may have an indication of how abortion compares with full term pregnancy as a risk factor for these diseases on the island by making international comparisons.[26] These diseases tend to be more common among women but are also found among men.9 Sweden (hospital Discharges) Sweden (Patients) England Finland (Hospital discharges) Finland (Patients) Scotland Ireland* Northern Ireland Irelands_Gain.6 92.7 3.2 66. when the birth rates in Ireland and Northen Ireland are higher and abortion rates lower it is suggested that the low abortion rates could be protective against this disease among their women. The female to male ratios tend to be lower in Ireland and Northern Ireland.6 422.0 681.indd 28 09/12/2011 08:46 .6 1.6 Male 115.5 53.4 136. we have computed the odds ratios for this in table 22.0 Male/ Female 2.1 3.8 136.1 136. Further study of these findings with controls for confounding variables could clarify this association.28 | CHAPter 6 – diseases of the Immune System CHAPter 6.1 54.1 188.2 103. rheumatoid Arthritis ICD-10 AMM05-M06 *2008 figures are provisional for Ireland Rates per 100.1 3.0 291.7 2.7 147.8 2.7 101.9 2.8 2.3 79.9 69.

8362 Male/Female Ratio 2.8176 0. Ireland & NI Ireland & NI Odds ratio 95% CI 81928 12334 0. rheumatoid Arthritis ICD-10 AMM05-M06 Male Countries not incl.indd 29 09/12/2011 08:46 . Odds ratios and 95% CIs(Confidence Intervals).7995 Female 239769 29514 0. For these other diseases. including Graves’ and Hashimoto’s thyroiditis that are more often treated at primary care level and not referred to hospitals.4 There is also some evidence for other diseases of the immune system such as some kinds of Thyroiditis and Sclerosis that male to female ratios are higher in Ireland in respect of cases admitted to hospitals.9 2. the numbers are smaller and the differences in odds ratios less significant. Numbers of patients discharged 2005-2008 outside and inside two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. Irelands_Gain.Ireland’s Gain 29 Table 22.

13. The Demographic Impact on Society and Consequences for the Health of Women of the 1967 Abortion Act over 40 Years.org . Kenny L C. April 2009. Cougle J. London 2007 www. 11. doi: 10. Priscilla K Coleman. 8(2):46-49 www. 21. Social Safety and Public Health in Northern Ireland Improving knowledge regarding abortions performed on Irish women in the UK. Queen’s University. and H Comber. department of Health.com/papri and www. A t Gavin.indd 30 09/12/2011 08:46 . Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007. 2. http://home. wahlbeck K. Population Trends 135 Spring 2009.mededtrust. 27. Central Survey Unit.krepublishers. Belfast Induced termination of pregnancy and low birth weight and preterm birth.com/content/pdf/1471-2458-10-383. 18. Number 3 June 2009 pp 173-177. Psychiatric admissions of low-income women following abortion and childbirth. Zao J 2009. Numbers of Irish abortions in the Netherlands from Crisis Pregnancy Agency. Numbers of Irish abortions in Scotland from ISd NHS in edinburgh.  Journal of Social Sciences Vol.org.pdf Gissler M.pdf Bakeo A C and Lynda Clarke. 24. 3. 2010. 17.krepublishers. Jan 2007. Mortensen P B et Al.papriresearch. PLoS oNe May 6(5): e 19658. Health Statistics Quarterly No 30 Summer 2006 pp15-21. Artama M. Calhoun BC Induce abortion and risk of later premature births. Patrick Carroll. BJoG 116 pp1425-1442 Abortion and mental health: quantitative synthesis and analysis of research published 1955-2009.001958 Miech r. dublin 2011.pdf reardon dC.biomedcentral. Abortion Statistics published annually by oNS and from 2002 by the department of Health for england & wales and by ISd-NHS Information and Statistics division of the National Health in Scotland for Scotland. 22. PG. The Decline of Fertility in Scotland compared with England. 6. Risk Factors for low birth weight based on birth registration and census information. 26. Shah Ps. dublin 2006. BJ Psych 2011. Ulster Medicine Bill Highest in UK. London Mental Health Commission Annual Report 2010.org/vol18no2/rooney. PAPrI and The Medical education trust. 2010 Use of psychotropic drugs before pregnancy and the risk for induced abortion: Population based register data from Finland 1996-2006. rue VM. Irelands_Gain.pdf A demographic portrait of Northern Ireland. 16.199:180-186 Legally Induced Abortion: The Demographic Profile and Hazards to the Health of Women. 14. The role of fetal microchimerism in autoimmune disease.html The Demographic Impact of Legally Induced Abortion after 40 Years in Great Britain. Paris 2006 available at this UrL on the Congress website: http://www. Northern Ireland Cerebral Palsy register.btconnect. Belfast News Letter 3 december 2010.168:1253-1256 . 25.ica2006. 4. Mahmood U.1371/journal. Canadian Medical Association Journal 2003. 23.com/UCeM1004004 Assessing the Damage.pone. . Numbers of Legally Induced Abortions within Northern Ireland. BMd Public Health 10:383 http:// www. Health and Social Wellbeing Survey 2005/06. Crisis Pregnancy Agency. Breast Cancer Epidemic: Modeling and Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors.jpands. ritvanen A. Northern Ireland Cancer registry and National Cancer registry(republic) Cancer Ireland 2011. National Cancer registry.uk 8. 7. Studies on ethnomedicine vol 5 Number 1 April 2011 pp1-10 http://www.org/vol12no3/carroll.pdf Khashan A S.com/3071. Belfast. 2011 Pregnancy and the Risk of Autoimmune Disease. 20. London rooney B. 12. Steve Clements and roger Ingham. Coleman PK. dublin. 10. 15.jpands.30 | reFereNCeS references 1. Fall 2007 12: pp 72-78 http://www. Laursen t M.com/02-Journals/JSS/JSS-190-000-09-web/JSS-19-3-000-09-Abst-PdF/JSS-19-3-173-2009-850-Carroll-P/JSS-19-3-173-2009-850Carroll-P-tt. JPANdS Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons. office for National Statistics.ijcem.Sexual Health Information. J Am Physicians and Surgeons 2003. 19. d w donnelly. link: http://www. Int J Clin exp Med 3(2):164-16 www. 19. Cancer in Ireland 1994-2004: A comprehensive report. a systematic review and meta-analysis. 5. england & wales. International Congress of Actuaries.com/02-Journals/S-eM/eM05-0-000-11-web/eM-05-1-000-11-Abst-PdF/eM-05-1-001-11-164-Carroll-P/eM-05-1-001-11-164Carroll-P-tt. Ney. Cancer Atlas of the United Kingdom and Ireland oNS London 2005. 9. Cork The.

Irelands_Gain.indd 31 09/12/2011 08:46 .

org price €7 uK £5 uS $10 ISbN 0-9514532-3-8 Irelands_Gain. he is the author of previous works published by pAprI that include: pension Age in a Changing Society(1990). Insurance and Investment.About the report The report discusses the consequences of the abortion laws in both Ireland and Northern Ireland compared to those elsewhere in respect of demography and the health of women on the island of Ireland since 1968. is an actuary and statistician who has contributed several papers to the actuarial literature.papriresearch. F. www. Abortion and other pregnancy related risk Factors in female breast Cancer(2001) and Assessing the Damage (2007).indd 32 09/12/2011 08:46 . The charitable objects of pAprI include research into pensions. About the Author patrick Carroll M. Demography..I.A. About pAprI (Charity registration Number 327942) The pension and population research Institute was registered as a charity in 1979 in england with educational aims.A.