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- REVIEW OF GALLUP OPINION POLLS RESULTS (Surveyed Dec 4-13) - by M.

Mzalendo
Central RO Gallup Nov Gallup Dec Variance 6 8 2 KI 92 88 -4 KA 2 4 2 RO 66 66 0 Coast KI 30 28 -2 KA 4 8 4 RO 10 6 -4 Eastern KI 44 48 4 KA 46 46 0 RO 74 40 -34 NEP KI 18 52 34 KA 8 8 0 RO 44 49 5 Nairobi KI 37 41 4 KA 19 10 -9 RO 81 86 5 Nyanza KI 18 12 -6 KA 1 2 1 RO 52 50 -2 RV KI 42 44 2 KA 6 6 0 RO 71 62 -9 Western KI 24 32 8 KA 5 6 1

Kikuyu RO Gallup Nov Gallup Dec Variance NOTES: 5 5 0 KI 92 92 0 KA 3 3 0

Mijikenda, Others RO 45 45 0 KI 45 45 0 KA 10 10 0 RO 6 5 -1

Kamba KI 16 12 -4 KA 78 83 5 RO 12 4 -8

Meru KI 84 94 10 KA 4 2 -2 RO 53 63 10

Kisii KI 35 33 -2 KA 12 4 -8 RO 93 93 0

Luo KI 6 5 -1 KA 1 2 1 RO 63 62 -1

Kalenjin KI 31 32 1 KA 6 6 0 RO 68 62 -6

Luhya KI 27 33 6 KA 5 5 0

- Unsupported by local pollsters, 1-big shift - NEP (34% margin). Only Kalonzo camped there recently. With no NEP shifts, ratings are reversed (RO-46, KI-43, KA-11) - Also unsupported by local pollsters, a small shift in Western ( margin of 8% to Kibaki) and this was before his most recent campaign fiascos (Kombo vs. Kituyi). - Ethnically, we see smaller shifts in Kambas (to Kalonzo), in Merus (to Kibaki), in Kisiis (to Odinga), in Luhya-land (to Kibaki) . Kikuyu, Luo & Kalenjin has stabilized. - Provincially, smaller shifts in NBO (to Odinga), Nyanza-Kisii (to Odinga), Western (to Kibaki), Eastern-Ukambani (to Kalonzo) and Central (both to Odinga, Kalonzo) - Discrepancies?: Kalonzo 10% increase from Kambas, and yet Kibaki leads Eastern (60% kamba); Raira increased support from Muslim-Coast, but trails in Muslim-NEP? - The swing Voter bases in this election is said to be NEP (remote place where ECK fear rigging mechanisms), Western & potentially Eastern (if Kalonzo defects) - Its clear not all 10-15% Kalonzo national base would defect with him to Kibaki. In such a scenario, 5-7% (est. none-kamba voter base) may revert back to ODM. - Turnout is critical. A heavy turnout in RV, Western, Nyanza and Coast will favor Odninga. Likewise a heavy turnout in Central, Eastern and NEP might favor Kibaki. - Depending on turnouts, Kibaki is at risk of not getting 25%+ in Nyanza, Western and Coast while Odinga is projected not to have 25%+ in Eastern or Central. - In Kenya, majority rules, hence unlike weighted opinion polls, on election day, EACH VOTE has same weight regardless of age, gender, province or ethnicity. - Odinga win will be due to increased ethnic ratings to 67%+ in Kisii, Luhya & Kalenjin; A Kibaki win will be due to increased ethnic rating to 40%+ in Kisii, Luhya & Kalenjin. - Odinga does not have risk of not meeting 25%+ in 5 provinces; On the other hand, Kibaki is at risk of not meeting 25% in 4 provinces- Nyanza, Western, Coast & NEP - Like its Nov survey, Gallup in Dec did a 1-week survey (UNLIKE Local Pollsters who do 2-3 days) and the early Dec period caught the post-nominations shocks - PNU's propaganda task for next 8 days- Choke/Dismantle ODM before MOAR-Uhuru Park on Monday; Buyout/Disorient ODM-K before MOAR-Uhuru Park on Sunday.
- Exit polls may be done on D-day; ECK-added more stations to increase turnouts, E.g. If 65%+ of ODM-zones have voted by 3pm versus 50% in PNU-zones, its all over. - EVE + ELECTION DAY propaganda: Its critical that ODM-K, PNU and ODM bases counter-prepare pyschologicaly for propaganda wars via cells, sms, flyers, media, etc. - ECK data- 68% of voters are below 35 years (ODM/Odinga stronghold); 25% of voters are over 45-years (Kibaki stronghold). If 50% of youth vote, its very bad for Kibaki. - Momentum shifts radically and openly (e.g. heckling) in the hinterlands. To offset rigging fears needs rapid communication, mobilization and votes-counting vigilance.