Biran He


Thesis Statement 1.0 Evolution of Cities 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Global Trend Where to now? Current Global Trends of Housing The Demographia Housing Affordability Survey The Rise of Suburbia National Trends

2.0 The Other Cities – Case Studies 2.1 2.2 2.3 Lessons from the United States_ Boulder, Colorado Lessons from Australia _ Perth, Western Austalia Lessons from London_ Urban Infill

3.0 Urban Planning Research 3.1 3.2 3.3 The Urban Sprawl Argument The Intensification Argument Our Future Plans

3.3.1 The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy 3.3.2 The Christchurch Central City Plan 3.3.3 The Issue with Affordability


4.0 CHRISTCHURCH CITY - MARKET RESEARCH 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Age & Sex Ethnicity Impact of Earthquake on Households Household Changes Income Median House Sale Prices Current Housing Supply Real Estate Market Automobile Dependency

4.10 Current Housing Demand 4.11 Temporary Housing 5.0 Summary of findings


Life in the Canterbury region changed forever when a 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck west of Christchurch on 4 September 2010 followed by a 4.9 magnitude aftershock on Boxing Day. Both earthquakes caused damage to older commercial buildings in the central city and widespread damage to residential suburbs across the city. No one could have predicted however that worst was yet to come. On 22 February 2011, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake erupted on what has become known as the Port Hills fault line, causing substantial damage to major historic sites, widespread land displacement causing whole suburbs to be deemed unstable and destruction of commercial buildings in the CBD which led to the loss of 181 lives. Such widespread destruction and the emotional distress has left many Cantebrians wondering about the future of Christchurch and how they will be able rebuild a better City amongst all the uncertainty. The unexpected nature of the events meant that no planning had been in place to deal with the issues that followed and also that all urban plans in place prior to the events had to be rethought. Going forward Christchurch City has implemented the Christchurch Central

City Recovery plan in conjunction with Central government to address rebuild of housing and commercial centres. The ad-hoc nature of this plan has meant that not all issues can be properly addressed in particular housing. More than 100,000 houses have been damaged, 10,000 are un-saveable. For some families their homes have had to be demolished and the land underneath declared unstable for building. Many homeowners have faced difficulty in dealing with insurance companies and even council inspectors. For many homeowners the stresses have been too much and they have moved locations entirely. Many families have lost everything and some face extravagant re-construction costs. The government intends to help each effected family by providing monetary support however with current issues of unaffordable and unavailable housing this solution falls short. In 2012, all of New Zealand’s housing stock is deemed “severely unaffordable” by the 8th annual Demographia Survey. This is coupled with the huge housing shortage after the 2010/11 earthquakes in Christchurch which creates what has been dubbed a “housing crisis”. The future of Christchurch housing will

need to address these issues currently but also keep them under control for future generations. The housing solution should promote sustainable growth of the city but also enhance the quality of life for the city’s inhabitants. The aim of my research is to be able to design and present appropriate housing solutions that will be the best fit in bringing together housing demand, housing supply and urban planning to promote sustainable growth of Christchurch City. I will conduct my research using a funnel approach. Firstly, I will look at Housing on a global scale to identify growth theories, patterns and issues that have resulted from urban planning decisions in much larger cities. I will then consider how these theories, patterns and issues are applied in the Christchurch context and current urban planning proposals in place to act on them. Secondly, focusing on Christchurch, I will perform analysis of the Housing market to understand demand characteristics of the future homeowners and characteristics of current housing stock. From the market analysis I would hope to understand what home buyers want in a home, how much it should be, where it should be

and some idea of what it should look like. Thirdly, I will bring together my full understanding of the market, urban planning theories and current issues to provide a best fit Future Christchurch housing solution. Below is a summary of the preliminary Thesis Structure: • EVOLUTION OF THE CITY » History of Cities - How do cities grow » Current Global Trends and Issues » Local Trends and issues » Conclusions • URBAN PLANNING RESEARCH » » Precedent Studies (AUS, US, UK)How can Christchurch utilise elements Current Plans For Christchurch City

• MARKET RESEARCH » Demand- Demographics, Growth, Characteristics » Supply- Housing stock and future growth plans » Summary of findings •URBAN STRATEGY

Rapid Urbanization Urbanization is the increase in the share of a society’s population that lives in cities. The rapid recent and continuing growth in the number and size of cities and urbanization—the shift of population from rural areas and small towns to urban areas—are striking phenomena in human history. In 1800 only about 6% of the world population of approximately 900 million people—about 54 million people—lived in urban areas and only one city (London) had more than one million inhabitants. Today nearly half the world population of 6.5 billion —about 3.25 billion people—live in urban areas. Nearly 1.3 billion people live in 524 urban agglomerations with populations of 750,000 or more. (LeGates R. , 2006)
Book Cover of “The Endless City” Source: LeGates & Stout, 2011

The urban transition: an S-shaped growth curve showing the urbanization process over time. Urbanization often follows a pattern that historical urban demographer Kingsley Davis describes as an attenuated S curve with a long left tail as the population in a region slowly becomes more urban, a steep middle portion of the “S” as the region urbanizes rapidly, and then a nearly flat upper part of the S curve once the region is essentially fully urban. (LeGates & Stout, 2011)

Intersection of High, Manchester and Lichfield Streets, Christchurch, 8 May 1923 Source: Photographic Archive, Alexander Turnbull Library, National Library of New Zealand

1.1 Global Trend
The “S Curve” of Urbanisation
100 90 80 70
percentage urban Mass production of the motor-car, 1920s industrial revolution WWII ended, 1945


60 50 40 30 20 0 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

“A Chatholic Town in 1440” (Augustus Pugin)
introduction of the steam engine

Suburban development in Colorado Springs, USA. 2008







“Industrial Town in 1840” (Augustus Pugin) “The Garden City, 1898” (Ebenezer Howard)

A modern downtown of the 1920s Market Street, San Francisco


“The Decay of Taste” During the first part of the nineteenth century, new industrial cities based on steam powered machinery sprang up in Europe. Augustus Pugin, a contemporary observer, contrasts the same city before and after the industrial revolution. The first plate titled “A Catholic Town in 1440” shows a city where church spires are the dominant architectural element, the land surrounding the medieval city walls is largely empty, and the air and water are clean. (See time line on previous page.) The second plate titled “The Same Town in 1840”, shows a layer of smog, with factory smokestacks that have replaced the steeples. Development has sprawled to the once-empty land, and the foreground is dominated by a massive prison. Pugin subtitled his work: A Parallel between the Noble Edifices of the Middle Ages and the Corresponding Buildings of the Present Day Showing the Present Decay of Taste. (LeGates & Stout, 2011) A modern downtown of the 1920s. (FIG) One of the prevailing urban features in the mid-nineteenth century was the appearance of large streets where the upper classes could travel without coming into contact with the squalid living conditions of the residential

Grant Avenue from Market Street, San Francisco, California Postcard. ca. 1915-1925, Grant Avenue from Market Street, San Francisco, California Postcard Source: Universal Images Group / SuperStock

Colombo Street, Christchurch, looking south towards the Cathedral. ca. 1930 Source: Christchurch City Libraries

slums that comprised the greater part of the city. This postcard shows the bustling Market Street in San Francisco in about 1920 is typical of the new downtown of the modernist period. Not that the trams, buses, automobiles, and pedestrians all share the public space. The picture of Colombo Street in Christchurch around the same era shows some remarkable similarities. There where large streets where people would travel along with the trams and automobiles. Pedestrians and cyclists share the same public space. Also note the large amount of cyclists on the road compared to cars. Since then, the urban form has evolved, to become more sprawled out, paved with highways and clogged up with automobiles. Almost like Augustus Pugin’s disappointment at the 1840’s industrial town, our cities have become a “decay of taste” again.

Levittown, New York, 1947. While suburbs have a long and varied history, it was during the period after World War II that many of the suburbs surrounding US cities arose. Levittown, New York, provided entirely new communities of affordable, cute, single-family houses on individual lots to returning soldiers and first-time home buyers. (Will this be what future Christchurch’s affordable housing looks like? )

Aerial view of Levittown, New York, 1947 Source: http://instanthouse.blogspot.co.nz/2011/08/levittown-ny.html


1.2 Where to now?
Re_urbanisation According to (Newman & Kenworthy, 1989), increasing the intensity of urban activity within the present urban area rather than continuing to push into green-field rural areas has come to be called reurbanization. It follows the pattern of urban trends outlined in the diagram to the right. In the reurbanization process, population and jobs once again begin to grow in inner areas and outer areas concentrate development and begin to take on more of the intensity and mixed character of the old inner areas. Reurbanization is discussed mainly in Europe and is only minimally considered for its fuel savings; the principal motivations usually are its economic and social benefits-a vital and attractive central and inner city and better utilization of the existing urban infrastructure. In addition, reurbanization is considered to help diminish vehicle emissions that contribute to acid rain and smog. (Newman & Kenworthy, 1989)

Source: (Newman & Kenworthy, 1989)

Likewise, European cities do not face the same inner and central city problems on housing and transport. Nevertheless, there is an ongoing effort to reurbanize.

The Greater Christchurch Urban Development plan (GCUDS,2007) has already put measures in place to reurbanize the city. Their approach is to contain further growth of the city, discouraging developments on the urban fringe, and promote consolidation Despite the suburbanization processes within the existing urban areas. of the postwar period, most European cities have not de-concentrated as rapidly as have cities in the United States (or the cities in New Zealand).

Accelerating pace of change The pace of change has been rapid, city regions of 1 million people or more multiplied in the twentieth century. Today they accommodate a total of 1 billion people, reflecting their role as centers of global flows of people, capital, culture and information. While there were only a hand full of city regions of this scale up to the mid-twentieth century, the number soared to 450 by 2005. (Burdett & Sudjic, 2008)

Accelerating pace of change, 1950 - 2005 Colors represent different continents, size of dot represents populations of 1 million or more Source: (Burdett & Sudjic, 2008)


1.3 Current Global Trends of Housing
An international study by the London School of Economics, (Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004) revealed some very interesting facts on housing trends and tenure. > Given that interest rates have fallen in all countries, and mortgage conditions have eased, affordability problems are mainly the result of increased house prices.

> In all countries studied, except > In four of nine countries the Germany, owner-occupation is the percentage of owner-occupiers among largest single tenure category. middle-aged households with children has fallen over the last decade. > Overall, percentages of owneroccupation range from Germany (41%) >Across countries, social renting is to Hungary (92%). The mean is 67% only always the cheapest tenure option a little below the UK figure of 70%. for either household type. For Young Entrant households, private renting > In almost every country, the is cheaper than owner-occupation, proportion of owner-occupiers is higher but for Mid-Life households it is more amongst Mid-Life than Young Entrant expensive. This is the same pattern as households. was observed ten years ago. > The proportions of younger (Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004) households entering owner-occupation are, however, stable or falling, often by The Young Entrant household was quiet significant amounts. defined as a two-adult household without children, with the main respondent aged > The main reason given for younger around 25 years, and an average income households not entering owner- for the age group. occupation is affordability. (UK had increased the availability of The Mid-Life household was defined as more appropriate private rented a two-adult household with two children, accommodation as a retort.) with the main respondent aged around 45 years, and an average income for that age group.

Average age of first-time home buyer is high for most countries. Source: Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004

Source: Cox & Pavletich, 2012

Make Infographics... Compare with CHCH?

Owner-occupation dominates tenure choice and continues to grow internationally Source: Scanlon & Whitehead, 2004


1.4 The Demographia Housing Affordability Survey
Defining Affordable Housing Markets Based upon the international evidence, Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey co-author Hugh Pavletich, provides the following definition of an affordable housing market:
For metropolitan areas to rate as “affordable” and ensure that housing bubbles are not triggered, housing prices should not exceed 3.0 times gross annual household income.

inflation vent of an urban market." This More suburban sprawl brings housing reality is demonstrated by the house for all. price experience that has occurred where planning authorities have placed Auckland was the least affordable a strangle-hold on the supply of land on market, with a Median Multiple of the urban fringe. In the 8th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, 325 metropolitan markets in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States were covered. According to the report, housing becomes unaffordable when the median house price (MHP) is three times higher than "gross annual median household income"(GAMHI). Housing in New Zealand was deemed “severely unaffordable”, with a Median Multiple of 5.4, nearly three-quarters above the historic affordability norm of 3.0. Housing had been affordable in the early 1990s, with a Median Multiple of 3.0 or less. (Cox & Pavletich, 2012) According to Demographia, the root of the problem is planners - specifically the way their zoning rules and regulations constrain the supply of land. Free up the supply of land, especially at the city fringes, says Demographia and housing will become affordable again.
6.4. Christchurch followed closely behind with a median multiple of 6.3.

To allow this to occur, new starter housing of an acceptable quality to the purchasers, with associated commercial and industrial development, must be allowed to be provided on the urban fringes at 2.5 times the gross annual median household income of that urban market. The critically important Development Ratios for this new fringe starter housing should be 17 – 23% serviced lot/section cost – the balance the actual housing construction. Pavletich further notes that the urban fringe "is the only supply vent or

“The causes of massively deteriorating housing affordability are not a mystery. They inevitably result from more restrictive land use regulations adopted by governments with insufficient attention to economic fundamentals.” (Cox & Pavletich, 2012) What may be surprising about Demographia's analysis is not that it reflects a property developer's ultimate fantasy, but that the New Zealand Government is buying its message. (Productivity Commission Report) "National understands there are be property cycles, but the recent cycle has been so extreme as to suggest there are fundamental problems with how the market is operating, notably around the supply of land…” - Phil Heatley (Housing Minister)

A flawed survey? However, the research doesn't prove anything about restrictive planning, according to a non-profit social change agency, Shelter New South Wales. A research was commissioned to prove this in October 2008. It found the over arching methodology flawed, pointing out that it includes all house prices across an entire city - multimilliondollar properties alongside lower cost homes. That can easily give a skewed impression. "A city with a high median multiple might have large numbers of affordable properties that operate as separate housing markets in the city," says the research. Demographia only includes home purchases, excluding dwellings in the public and private rental sector, which are important sources of affordable housing supply. (Phibbs & Gurran, 2008) Another feature not taken into account is the increase in the average size of new houses in New Zealand - from about 130 square metres in 1990 to just under 200 square metres today. Phibbs and Gurran note that the boom in house prices in New Zealand has occurred in places like Timaru, which have few problems with land availability. "It's not really obvious that we have constraints amenities, and limited prospects for in finding sites to build on." academic and professional achievement for the next generation. (Barton, 2009) Shelter NSW's research argues housing affordability is a complex mix of supply Looking at Demographia's 64 "severely and demand variables including income unaffordable" housing markets in North levels, employment trends, access to America, Hall notes most are coastal (and the cost of) finance, demographic cities and many are near mountains. shifts, and housing preferences. "The "Never mind the artificial constraints Demographia surveys reduce this that politicians place on these cities very complex issue to a simple causal with their growth management and relationship between house prices and zoning regulations, these cities face real assumed planning constraints on land limitations on growth in constrained supply," says the research. (Phibbs & geographies. Gurran, 2008) Despite such hurdles ahead, A closer look at Demographia's list Demographia maintains freeing-up of 87 "affordable" housing markets in land on the fringe of metropolitan North America gives new meaning to urban limits will save the day. Pull up the word. The top 20 most affordable the boundary fence and let the city markets are in economically distressed limits push out. In its vision of suburban regions. According to Keith Hall, the paradise, Demographia does not dwell Chief executive of the New Zealand on the downside - that a more sprawledPlanning Institute, these are mostly out Auckland for example would result the “rust belt” cities of the American in increased infrastructure, transport Midwest. These areas are chronically and social costs. plagued by high unemployment among predominantly blue collar auto industry workers. A close reading of the Demographia data shows "affordable housing" is found largely in flat terrain with extreme climates, high levels of crime, dying economies, few natural

Suburbia : Urban Sprawl A look at how urban sprawl came to be, and why it came to be. The New Zealand equivalent of the American Dream, and show how that is not the right way to develop housing.

Further readings/research: “The Drive-in Culture of Comtemporary America” (Kenneth Jackson) “The Causes of Sprawl” (Robert Bruegmann) Robert Bruegmann (Causes of Sprawl) suggests that building ever-outward is merely a logical, indeed “natural” response to increased population pressures and the desire of the middle class to avoid the disagreeable aspects of inner-city life.


1.5 The Rise of Suburbia
other visionary social reformer, but with an important difference. Fishman explains that “where other modern utopias have been collectivist, suburbia has built its vision of community on the primacy of private property and the individual family.” (Fishman, 1987)

Wright’s Broadacre City Frank Lloyd Wright’s Broadacre City, often confused with a kind of universal sub-urbanization, it was the complete opposite of the suburbs he despised. Broadacres was based on universal automobile ownership combined with a network of superhighways which removed the need for population to Fishman notes that all new urban forms cluster at a particular spot. appear to be chaotic in their early stages. Even the most “organic” city- Indeed, any such clustering was scapes of the past evolved slowly after necessarily inefficient, a point much chaos and trial and error. For of congestion rather than of example, it took planners like Fredrick communication. The city would Law Olmsted (Olmsted’s Riverside thus spread out to the country side at Suburb) and Ebenezer Howard (Garden densities that would allow each family City) to create orderly parks and garden to have its own farmstead and even to suburbs out of the nineteenth century engage in part-time agriculture. chaos. However these farmsteads would Fishman argues that there is a functional not be isolated; their access to the logic to sprawl. Perhaps, he speculates, superhighways would put them in reach if sprawl is better understood and better of jobs and may specialized services, as managed it might prove to be a positive any other nineteenth century urbanite. rather than a negative development. Travelling in their automobiles, each Fishman looks to Frank Lloyd Wright’s citizen would create his own city within Broadacre City vision, as an example of hundreds of square miles he could how inspired planners may yet devise reach in an hour’s drive. (LeGates & an aesthetic to tame the suburbia. Stout, 2011)

“If the nineteenth century could be called the Age of Great Cities, post – 1945 America would appear to be the Age of Great Suburbs” -Robert Fishman, 1987

In the book Bourgeois Utopias, Robert Fishman discovered that the “suburban ideal” was yet another form of utopia, the utopia of the middle class. (Robert Fishman is a professor of history at the University of Michigan.) In the medieval period and up through the eighteenth century, suburbs were clusters of houses inhabited by poor and/or disreputable people on the outskirts of towns. When suburbs were first established for the upper and middles classes – a phenomenon that has thrived more in North America than in Europe, where working class suburbs and banlieus (“outskirts” of a city) often predominate – the ideal was to create a perfect synthesis of urban sophistication and rural virtue. Here was a conception as utopian as any


Sketches for Boadacre City project from Frank L. Wright. Source: Kjell Olsen / Flickr.com

1.6 National Trends
Early history suggest that New Zealand was developing a healthy public transportation system, and developments were built around that. During the 1880’s horse-drawn tram services were set up in all four main centers. Commuter suburbs developed along the tram routes and property speculators took advantage of this trend by buying and subdividing more land on the city fringes. (TeAra, 2011)

A Snapshot of Changing New Zealand
Population Average Household Size Couples Only Couples with Children Single-Person Households Vehicles Registered

2001 3,880,500 2.7 376,905 407,793 307,635 1,909,480

2006 4,184,600 2.6 467,700 480,700 362,800 2,241,490

2011 4,405,200 2.6 528,700 480,100 405,900 4,196,826

3,732,000 2.8 309,819 379,218 256,569 1,635,718

However, the industrial revolution hit, and the popularization of motor-cars saw rapid urbanization, which lead to sub-urbanization or “sprawl”. Everyone wanted to have a piece of this “New New Zealand as one of the most highly Zealand Dream”. (1/4 acre, a car and a urbanised countries in the world, with 85.7 percent of its population living in bungalow) urban areas. The development of suburbanisation has been concurrent with the development of urbanisation in New Zealand. As New Zealand cities have expanded in population, they have also expanded dramatically in size. At first suburbs developed around public transport routes, then, with advent of the private motor car, urban sprawl increased.

Data set from Statistics New Zealand

In 1881, urban New Zealanders were a minority, but by 2001 they had been the substantial majority of New Zealanders for some time. This trend is not unique to New Zealand, but rather reflects an international trend towards urbanisation. Worldwide, cities have expanded and swallowed up vast areas of land and population. Main urban areas have grown at the expense of In 2002 the New Zealand Official smaller urban communities. (Stats NZ, 2012) Yearbook 2002 recorded Aotearoa/ New Zealand has also followed the

international phenomenon of urban expansion. In 1901, approximately one-quarter of the urban population (10.1 percent of the total population, excluding Mäori) lived in a borough or town district with 25,000 or more people. In 2001, over 80 percent of the urban population (71 percent of the census usually resident population count) lived in a main urban area (an urban area with a population of 30,000 or more). The Auckland urban area is now the largest nationally, increasing by approximately 3,000 percent between 1886 and 2001.


New Zealand
urbanisation of N.Z

90 80 70
percentage urban

immigration from Asia in 1990s

60 50 40 30 20
James Cook visits New Zealand Govt, nance for new home owners, 1950s
Modern New Zealand Suburb, Auckland. 2009

0 1100




Billboard encouraging suburban dwellers, 1930s

introduction of the motor-car in 1920s

Electric Tram in Mt Eden, Auckland. 1920s


Lessons from History. In 1881, New Zealand was firmly a rural country, with just under 60 percent of the population living in a rural area. New Zealand sold itself as a rural paradise in the late nineteenth century, with such volumes as Pictorial New Zealand and the New Zealand Cyclopaedia. These books promoted New Zealand to the wider, though still largely British, world with images of lush countryside and towering mountains. They also, however, included a celebration of urban development by promoting the progress of newly established towns and cities, with roads, horses, trams and trains. Rural and urban New Zealand coexisted. By the early twentieth century, however, there was a sense of dismay that the population was no longer predominantly rural. Newspapers raised fears about urban corruption and decay as the population lost their hardy pioneering spirit and became softened by the experience of urban living. In 1923, the prominent educationalist, Professor James Shelley, wrote that children “should not be educated in the town . . . I do not think you realise how destructive it is”.[1] In response, sports such as rugby increased in popularity as a suitable medium to toughen young

Growth of Five Main Urban Areas Census of Population and Dwellings, selected years 1886–2001 Source: Stats NZ

House Prices and Value of Housing Stock Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, April 2012 / http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/keygraphs/Fig4.html


men and inculcate them with suitable values. None of these fears slowed the inexorable march towards an increasingly urbanised and eventually sophisticated nation but they influenced the form of cities and shaped the values that the nation espoused. New Zealand cities became shaped around the suburban rather than purely urban forms, copying the sprawl of cities in Australia and the United States. Features of European cities such as narrow streets, terrace housing, and high population density seemed alien to the New Zealand ethos, although pockets did develop in areas such as Dunedin’s Dundas Street, where they became a curiosity rather than the norm.

Number of People Living in Urban and Rural Areas 1886–2001 Source: Statistics New Zealand

Between 1881 and 2001 the balance of the population moved from rural to urban areas. During this period, the population of urban New Zealand increased by over 1,500 percent, Ruralism influenced education and compared with an increase in rural housing policies. The New Zealand areas of 83 percent. Prime Minister, Peter Fraser, when looking at models for state housing in (Stats NZ, 2012) the 1940s, was dismayed when shown a multi-block apartment in Lower Hutt, declaring ‘I hope it will be the last’.[2] The comprehensive development of apartment building has been a fairly recent phenomenon, developing as a result of pressure on space and high land values in the main cities.

Lessons from the United States Boulder : Limiting Growth Boulder, Colorado in America has developed a national reputation for having dealt creatively with growth management issues. The city has developed a 27,000-acre greenbelt, a system for controlling the rate of population growth by limiting building permits, and a defined urban growth boundary managed in cooperation with Boulder County. Boulder's approach to urban growth boundaries, called the service area concept, offers important lessons for controlling sprawl, preserving rural land uses outside the city, and extending urban services in a rational manner. Boulder is a mid sized city pressed against the vertical flank of the Rockies, about 50 kilometres from Denver. Boulder is home to approximately 96,000 people. Its strong economy is founded on the university, federal laboratories, regional and local retail, and a dynamic industrial sector concentrated in the high tech industry and business services. Nearly 40 years ago, the city tried to control its future on its own, setting itself up as an ideal mix of wild and urban. (Pollock, 1998) The plan was called the ‘service area concept’. In the decade of the 1950s, Boulder's population grew from 25,000 to 37,000 and during the 1960s it grew Then, in 1967, Boulder started to take a portion of the sales tax and buy up open space, mostly ranch land that was being sold to commercial developers. It has since purchased 25,000 acres. In 1976, Boulder went a step further, setting a limit on residential growth, at 2 percent a year. (Egan, 1996) Benefits: • The service area concept creates an identifiable urban/rural edge. Unlike many cities that have either sprawled into the countryside or facilitated leapfrog development, Boulder has created a real edge between urban and rural development. • It provides for the rational extension of urban services. The definition of areas where services are to be provided (along with initial designations of land use) allows a direct link between land use planning and infrastructure planning. Parks, recreation, police, fire, transportation, water, sewer and flood control service providers can develop their master plans knowing where services are to be extended, over what time frame, and for what types of land uses.

Denver, Colorado. Population Change 2000-2010. U.S. Census Data Source: http://www.datapointed.net/visualizations/maps/ growth-rings/denver-colorado/

by a whopping 29,000 to reach 66,000. Starting in 1959; Boulder drew a line in the mountains just above the city, above which no water or sewer services could be extended. It was dubbed the “Blue Line”, and it was setup to protect the foothills from development which was considered imminent and extremely detrimental to the natural beauty of Boulder. It insured that City water service could not be used to further urban development up into the foothills. (Egan, 1996)

• It helps preserve rural lands outside the city. Boulder's service area policy has sent a clear signal to the land markets that land outside of Boulder's service area is not likely to be urbanized in the near future. This has lessened land speculation for urban development purposes and facilitated the acquisition of open space. • It helps focus development within the city. Through redevelopment of under utilized areas and infill development, the city has been able to capitalize on existing public investments in infrastructure. • It provides both flexibility and certainty to the planning process. As the community experiences change over time, land can be added to or deleted from the service area, and property owners inside and outside the service area can act accordingly. (Pollock, 1998) Pitfalls: • Boulder's region encompasses the whole county. Therefore, the city's surging job growth and limitations on residential growth have had a significant impact on housing demand in adjoining communities. The most

striking example is the nearby town of Superior. In 1990 the population of Superior was 255; in 1996 it was 3,377. It has practically no jobs and no sales tax base. This regional imbalance between jobs and housing has created tremendous problems with traffic congestion, lack of affordable housing and school facility needs. • Getting a hold on sprawl is only half the equation. What happens within the urban service area is the other. In Boulder's initial planning efforts; there was a clear expression of a preference for infill and redevelopment over sprawl. Since there is no requirement that a certain amount of land be contained within its service area (such as the 20-year required land supply within Oregon's urban growth boundaries), Boulder does not have to make a trade-off between expansion versus infill and redevelopment. However, it is increasingly difficult to convince specific neighborhoods and the community as a whole that additional density is in their best interests. The community can choose to not expand the service area, maintain current densities and simply not grow. (Pollock, 1998)

Is that good or bad? On the good side, it has allowed Boulder to determine its own ideal city size, with consideration of how much congestion is tolerable, what sized city leads to a high quality of life, and what is sustainable over time. On the bad size, it holds Boulder back from capturing some of the benefits that additional development could bring, such as more affordable housing and less dependence on the automobile by building mixed use, transit-oriented neighborhood centers.


Lessons from Australia. Perth : Beating Urban Sprawl urban sprawl that would make it twothirds the size of greater New York but with just a sliver of the Big Apple's population. Greater New York is home to more than 18 million people covering 17,400sqkm. Perth's population of 1.9 million covers 5500sqkm. But based on current growth rates, Perth could reach 3.8 million people by 2050 sprawling across 12,000sqkm. And our homes are getting bigger - a The retention of bushland in Perth can be attributed to the Urban Sprawl : Perth needs more apartments. decade ago a new WA home averaged Corridor Plan of the 1970s Source: Perth Now, 2010 Source: Atkinson, 2009 Perth’s population is the fastest growing 220sqm, now they average 245sqm. of all the cities in Australia, and this Despite the bigger homes, there are 1980s. It identified four major transport corridors—north-west, east, south-east increase has placed strains upon both fewer people in them. (Wright, 2011) and south-west—all extending from the built and the natural environment. In recent years planning authorities (at The development of a series of regional the CBD. The plan aligned the growth each level of government) have been and local plans and policies over the of the city along these corridors, and under pressure from the community last 50 years illustrates the ways in it was considered these would also and industry to improve services and which the city’s urban problems have provide an economical infrastructure amenity, and to plan for the present been addressed. Regional plans that for the growing population. While it and future needs of society, while have been implemented include, the was not the prime intention of the plan, maintaining the quality of the natural Corridor Plan, the Metroplan and, more the Corridor Plan also fortuitously environment. Finding a balance recently, Network City. (Atkinson, 2009) protected areas of natural bush land between these corridors. Even today, between conserving the natural The Corridor Plan much of the morphology of the city’s environment while increasing the size urban development can be attributed of the built environment (to cater for The Stephenson–Hepburn Plan of to this plan. (Atkinson, 2009) increasing population demands) has led to an array of sustainability driven 1955 represented the first regional policies and initiatives that aim to planning approach to the long-term The Metroplan planning of Perth’s growth. The address Perth’s urban problems. Corridor Plan of the 1970s evolved out In 1987, after a period of review, the fi Perth is on its way to becoming an of this plan and was the basis for the rst major change to the Corridor Plan city’s development up until the mid- was endorsed by the government

of the day. The resulting Metroplan brought some important changes to the concept of corridor development. One of its prime objectives was to slow down the outward growth of the city by encouraging an intensification of urban land use through consolidation. In addition to the traditional forms of detached housing, the plan detailed an increasing emphasis on well-designed medium density housing located close to specified centres of activity and public transport facilities. Urban renewal and redevelopment was also encouraged, and this was emphasised to local councils by the state government. Metroplan also addressed the falling public transport patronage at the time by emphasising the need for higher density housing along existing railway links and around existing regional centres. (Atkinson, 2009) Network City Introduced in late 2004, Network City is an overarching framework that has been designed to act as a planning guide for government departments in WA. It incorporates the Perth and Peel and Murray regions and aims to promote sustainable development. Network City resulted from a process involving dialogue with 1000 people

Network City Framework, Perth Source: Western Australian Planning Commission, 2005

in September 2003, a change from previous strategies that involved only small groups of experts in the field. As a plan, Network city aims to express: a contemporary understanding of the challenges facing Perth and Peel and the options for responding imaginatively to them. Many of these principles and plans have been around for a long time, and many form the basis for important initiatives such as policies for liveable neighbourhoods, water sensitive urban design, vibrant centres, transit oriented development and better public transport and major infrastructure investments such as New MetroRail. Network city brings together these policies and other innovations in a more integrated form and with a renewed sense of urgency. Within the plan, there is an emphasis on growth management, containing urban sprawl, and enhancing opportunities for urban regeneration and renewal within the existing urban area. (Western Australian Planning Commission, 2005) “Directions 2031 and Beyond”

“We cannot continue simply to focus on more urban sprawl…that has high costs in providing social infrastructure, costs, So, high we high

new land is allocated for projects). The infill target was well above the 30 to 35 per cent achieved over the past decade or so The new strategy focused on providing five to six story structures along major public transport routes or highways. The aim was smaller homes on average and greater use of public transport while ensuring Perth remained one of the most livable cities in the world.



do need to become a more compact city than we have

``We also need to get areas of employment, industrial land been in the past.'' developments and other commercial – John Day (Western developments, so that people can, Australia Planning Minister) hopefully, live not too far from where they are working,'' says Mr Day. (Perth sprawling city, and plan for higher Now, 2010) density living and greater public transport. John Day, Western Australia Planning Minister said a big boost in infill housing (whereby additional units were added to an already approved subdivision or neighborhood) was needed to help accommodate the 550,000 extra residents expected in that time. (Perth Now, 2010)

The 20-year strategy set a target of 47 Directions 2031 and Beyond the latest per cent for infill development, with growth strategy for Perth, launched the other 53 per cent coming from in 2010. It is aimed to tighten up the greenfields developments (whereby

Lessons from London Urban Infill With population set to increase by 1.3 million in the 25 years to 2031, and average household size declining from 2.34 persons/household to 2.19, the number of households in London could rise by 0.9 million This approximates to 34,000 additional households a year. (Greater London Authority, 2009) For a major city, London has a remarkably low housing density at 45 dph (dwellings per hectare) compared to other cities such as New York (100 dph) and Paris (90 dph). There are many opportunities for well designed, conscientious and contextual buildings to fill ‘missing teeth’ within the urban fabric. The term “urban infill” can be best understood as a conscious effort to increase the density and intensity of previously developed urban sites. (Meyer, 1999) These “urban-cavities” are all around for building within Central London via infill development. Under-used garages, gaps at the end of terraces, spaces above shops or licensed premises are just a few places in which infill buildings offer excellent design opportunities. In turn this benefits the city’s appearance and functionality, reduces the necessity for urban sprawl and yields excellent financial rewards for property owners.

Urban Infill Strategies in London. Potential infill sites and value. Source: http://www.urbaninfill.co.uk

100 d.p.h

90 d.p.h

45 d.p.h

Density differences between New York, Paris and London. d.p.h (dwellings per hectare) Source: http://www.urbaninfill.co.uk

Example Situated between neighbouring buildings in West London, two neglected garages have a detrimental impact on the streetscape. The gap between the buildings is at a prominent street junction where a building of high architectural merit will provide a much needed focal point. This infill building has been designed in an intentionally bold and modern style to avoid creating a pastiche in this neighborhood of mixed architectural precedent. The intention was also to cater for the needs of a young, vibrant and creative local community. This addition improves the appearance of the urban environment whilst providing the freeholder with a very substantial profit. (Urban Infill , 2012)

Pitfalls: Benefits: >The strategic filling of “urban cavities” >Loss of light and privacy can help reduce the need for urban sprawl and can yield great financial >Lack of open space and greenery rewards for property owners. >Increase in noise levels >A clever way of intensifying the city center, while using up derelict urban >Hard for neighborhoods to maintain land. its identity. >Could be a great strategy for postquake Christchurch, with large amounts of urban land waiting to be redeveloped. >It is a chance to insert mixed-used buildings into the urban center, and provided a great range of housing choices.

Existing: Two disused garages Proposed: New retail unit + three bed triplex Build cost: £300k Sale Value: £700k Profit: £400k
Urban Infill example in West London. Source: http://www.urbaninfill.co.uk


3.0 Urban Planning
The case for sprawl
Get land opened up on the fringes ASAP! Build as many “affordable houses” * as we can for the people in the Red Zone.

Hugh Pavletich

“Zoning strangulation” by government. new homes per year on the fringes of Christchurch. Limiting greenfield developments can drive up house prices across board. High density intensified central urban planning is the government’s key Constraints on release of residential objective at the expense of displaced land creates scarcity, limits choices and red zoners who are leaving the city. increases market price. ARC REPORT - In the section on Immediate release of land will ease housing affordability, the report supply constraints and reduce pressure concludes: “The model outputs on rent on prices. indicate that affordability deteriorates for all scenarios similarly. An expansive CHCH housing is 6.3x more than scenario has little effect on housing median income. It should only be 3x! affordability across the region, despite the release of 50% more land than We should be building 4000-5000 the compact scenarios for urban development.” Sprawl will cause the urbanization of productive rural land.
http://www.propbd.co.nz/afa.asp?idWebPage=8338&idBob DeyProperty_Articles=14336&SID=59

The case for intensification
Kill Sprawl before it kills you!

“The lower transport costs (in terms of It is more economically viable for minutes) that would be experienced by developing transport infrastructure. the compact scenarios would start to offset housing costs overall. Therefore, Cuts down the cost of commute by when considering the combined costs of workers. housing & transport, a compact scenario would have greater affordability.” Reduces congestion and pollution in the city. - Auckland Regional Council Report, Intensification can reduce the land costs/unit (lower rents) and provide affordable options within centres that have good access to transport (lower transport costs). 2009


3.1 Sprawl

Info-graphic to be made...

Externalities (positives, negatives) * In economics, an externality, or transaction spillover, is a cost or benefit not transmitted through prices that is incurred by a party who did not agree to the action causing the cost or benefit. (e.g. urban sprawl causes negative externalities such as transportation costs, infrastructure costs, pollution etc..) > car use dependency > demand for new infrastructure and services > the encroachment of the built environment into other land use zones.

3.2 Intensification

Externalities (positives, negatives) > Housing affordability is incompatible with restrictive land-use? ...one literature review lists more than 25 studies over a period of 30 years, all of which indicate a potential for association between more restrictive land use regulations and higher house prices. (Cox & Pavletich, 2012) > Increasing urban development puts pressure on suburban centres and towns to maintain their individual and district identities. (GCUDS, 2007) > Recent examples of housing infill have raised issues about the loss of period houses, light and privacy, open space and greenery (particularly large trees) and increases in noise and a neighbourhood’s ability to maintain its identity. (GCUDS, 2007) Research in Christchurch highlighted strong resistance to infill housing among residents, and the way it was seen to contradict the “garden city” heritage and undermine an established and valued way of suburban life intimately linked with family and social relations (Vallance et al., 2005). Inner city residents of medium density housing in Christchurch were similarly concerned about the intrusive nature of any further increase in densities and the lower quality of development and standards of living they are associated with. Increased density was seen as actually lowering the social sustainability of housing; intensification of inner city sites saw the displacement of lower income households from the ageing housing stock in which they had enjoyed accessibility benefits by more prosperous residents in modern, well-appointed units (Ancell and Fawcett Thompson, 2007).

NZ Council Plans (which way are we heading? In support or against of sprawl) What is the Council is planning for!? An overview of what has already been planned for the future of Christchurch, and to critically analyze if they are effective. > CCC Plan > Greater Christchuch Urban Development Plan > Productivity Commission Report > National Party Plan > Labour Party Plan

Yet to be analyzed:


3.3.1 The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy
The main points of the Greater the edge of the city and the balance Christchurch Urban Development of 22,000 households mainly through Strategy (GCUDS) are: greenfield development integrated with existing district towns. (GCUDS, > Urban sprawl is minimized. 2007) > Our electricity, communications, The proposed settlement pattern sewage, water and waste water systems is based upon maintaining the grow with our population. distinction between urban and rural areas by concentrating development at The Greater Christchurch population and around existing urban areas, both continues to grow. The GCUDS is a large and small. The Strategy proposes collaborative planning effort between that over the next 35 years Greater local authorities in the greater Christchurch’s growth will be split Christchurch metropolitan area. 71% within Christchurch City, 16% in Selwyn District and 13% in Waimakariri Greater Christchurch is expecting District. (GCUDS, 2007) an increase of around 75,000 new households over the next 35 years, with two thirds of this growth within the first 20 years. An assessment was made of the capacity for planned intensification in Central Christchurch and elsewhere in the existing built up area of Christchurch, together with an allowance made for on-going infill. In total these areas are to be planned and (re)developed to accommodate an additional 33,500 households, indicating a rate of 45% intensification and infill as the strategy target. A further 19,500 households are proposed for new developments on Decentralised Pattern of Development Growth in Christchurch has been characterised by a decentralised pattern of development. This has occurred as a result of demographic and socio-economic changes (e.g. steady population growth, higher household incomes, desire for home ownership and changes in the dominant modes of transport – from foot, bicycle, and tram to the private car). The response to this pattern of development was the adoption by successive regional planning authorities during the period between 1959 and 1991 of spatial policies for containment of urban growth within the Christchurch built-up area, combined with planned decentralisation of population at designated satellite growth centres at Rangiora, Kaiapoi, Woodend and Rolleston.


Overview of Growth Issues

Current Growth Containment

A number of key issues influencing the Christchurch City Council has a future growth of Greater Christchurch policy of urban containment that has are: discouraged development on the urban fringe and promoted consolidation > Dispersed urban growth in Greater within existing urban areas. Demand Christchurch has resulted in a loss for urban land that cannot be met in of connectivity between living and Christchurch has been accommodated working. People are now travelling in the surrounding districts. This increased distances to see friends, go to Strategy has been initiated in response work or obtain goods and services. to the adverse effects arising from the location and form of urban growth. > High quality open space is becoming Four settlement plans for managing increasingly scarce. As population and future growth were developed during dwelling densities increase it becomes 2004 - 2005. “The Great Christchurch even more important to provide and Metropolitan area was in favour of adequately manage open spaces the “concentration” option, with 63% public support. The next most popular > An aging population requires different option was the consolidated form and infrastructure and new investment. As the option proposing a dispersed form the population ages, the requirements was the least facoured.”(Lilley, 2006) for recreation and transport facilities, in particular, may change.


Business as Usual This settlement pattern would continue with the current trends of development spreading out around the Greater Christchurch area in new subdivisions, with some housing in urban renewal developments. Councils would continue to pursue independent growth strategies.

Business as usual Source: GCUDS, 2007 Option A – Concentration The “concentration” option put forward by the GCUDS posed a new housing development focus on central Christchurch and inner suburbs of Riccarton, Spreydon, St Albans, Waltham and Linwood. Of a proposed 62,000 additional dwellings, 60% would be via the process of ‘renewal’ or redevelopment, and 40% by new subdivision or traditional infill. Multistorey townhouses, apartments and flats would replace villas and bungalows, and mixed development of commercial space on lower floors and residential on upper floors would occur.

Option A - Concentration Source: GCUDS, 2007


Option B – Consolidated Form Proposed to balance future urban development between existing built areas, with particular attention to key focal points, and some expansion into adjacent areas. This option was the second most popular, following the “concentration” option.



Christchurch area 63% next was and was in Option B – Consolidated Form Source: GCUDS, 2007

Metropolitan option, support. popular with The

favour of the “concentration” public most the the

option form


option proposing a dispersed form was the least favoured.”

Option C – Dispersed Form Proposed to disperse development out around the Greater Christchurch area away from established urban areas. This option was the least supported by the Christchurch Metropolitan area.

Option C – Dispersed Form Source: GCUDS, 2007

Proposed settlement pattern The proposed settlement pattern is based upon maintaining the distinction between urban and rural areas by concentrating development at and around existing urban areas, both large and small. Transport is a key component of an integrated approach to land use development. Securing the main north, west and southern corridors to ensure accessibility to the Port of Lyttelton and International Airport are top priorities. Enhanced public transport services, that provide practical and affordable alternatives to using private motorcars, are essential for a more sustainable and environmentally friendly transport system. Christchurch Airport’s operation would not be compromised by urban expansion under the flight path to ensure competitiveness and accessibility. Commercial and business activity centres to the north at Belfast and southwest at Hornby will be developed to meet the needs of city residents and people living beyond these city edges. A revitalised Central City serves as a regional focus for commerce and entertainment and as home for 30,000 residents. (GCDUS,2007)

The Strategy proposes that over the next 35 years Greater Christchurch’s growth will be split 71% within Christchurch City, 16% in Selwyn District and 13% in Waimakariri District.

Proposed Settlement Plan for Greater Christchurch Region Source: GCUDS, 2007

3.3.2 The Christchurch Central City Plan
Overview The Christchurch Central City Plan 1. Green city (CCCP) aims to bring people into the city center to live and work. Before the earthquake, the Central City was already home to 7700 residents. The Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy (GCUDS), and subsequent Canterbury Regional Policy Statement, 2. Stronger built identity identify the Central City as a key residential growth area as part of a shift towards a more consolidated urban form in Greater Christchurch. The Central City Plan proposes greater 3. Compact CBD choice of housing in the Central City to attract a diverse range of residents, including families who seek safe environments in which to raise their children; places where they can enjoy a range of stimulating activities in a healthy environment. 4. Live, work, play, learn and visit For the Central City’s recovery to be successful it requires a significant residential population to support business growth and development, and create a high level of activity and vibrancy. This works in conjunction with 5. Accessible city the council’s plan for a more compact CBD in the future. (Christchurch City Council, 2011) The CCCP set out five key initiatives to shape the future Christchurch:

A greener more attractive city, supported by a wider and upgraded Avon River/Ōtakaro corridor, a greener Cathedral Square, new street trees throughout the Central City, 500 new green-rated buildings, rain gardens, surface stormwater treatment and a new network of neighbourhood parks. A lower rise city with safe, sustainable buildings that look good and function well, supported by urban design controls, new regulation and incentives, strengthened heritage buildings with adaptive reuse, new lanes and courtyards and precincts of distinct activities, character and culture. A more compact Central Business District (CBD) supported by business incentives, new regulations and well-designed streetscapes. Ultra-fast broadband and free WiFi, short-term free car parking in Council-controlled car par ing buildings and bus routes around the edges of the CBD. New high-quality inner city housing options and demonstration projects, residential incentives, improved access to a wide range of schools, new metropolitan sporting facilities, a new Central Library, new public art and performing arts venues and playgrounds. A city easy to get to and around, supported by excellent walking and cycling paths, highquality public transport, a network of green twoway streets and an efficient and attractive ring road for traffic around Moorhouse, Fitzgerald, Bealey, Harper and Deans avenues.

Before and after diagrams showing the five key initiatives to redevelop the city. Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

Housing strategies for Christchurch City
Residential Incentives The council has planned for a residential incentives package to make the Central City an affordable housing choice, which will get more people living in and enjoying life in the new city. The package will address the high development costs of building in the Central City and potential homeowners having difficulty in securing finance to buy a home. The project will introduce a Development Contributions rebate and a Central City Home Buyers Assistance Incentive. The Central City Home Buyers Assistance Incentive will reduce the deposit required for a home loan. Many traditional lenders require high deposits for Central City apartment style properties. Lowering the level of deposit will make home ownership in the Central City more accessible to a wider range of people which is the key to providing the demand developers seek before committing to new developments. The incentives will be based around criteria to ensure quality design and these will be targeted to areas of the Central City where the greatest opportunities for creating new communities exist. (CCCP, 2011)
The Central City will be an affordable place for everyone to live. Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

Development Contributions Rebate and Central City Homebuyers Assistance Package Where: Central City (with criteria applied) When: From 2012 Who: Christchurch City Council Cost: $17.9 million

Social Housing The social housing project is aimed at rebuilding the Central City’s social housing stock, and work with partners to assess future social housing needs. The estimated budget is around $300,000. The City Council has provided lowcost accommodation to low-income residents in Christchurch for more than 70 years, operating as a self-funding entity. Following the earthquakes, Council has 116 complexes throughout the city which have sustained damage. This provides an opportunity to consider relocation of some of these properties closer to the Central City for easier access to facilities and services. Repairs and replacements will take place within the next two years, and the Council will work with central government and other parties to increase options for social housing. Location of small-scale social housing close to the neighbourhood centres and community facilities, along with integration of social housing with other homes, is desirable as it increases the household diversity, can reduce social isolation and foster local community resilience.

Affordable Housing A new agency will be established to make housing more affordable in the central city for low-to middle income earners. The housing agency will investigate and develop options to make housing in the Central City more affordable and work with private partners and central government to deliver a better range of affordable houses. The Council is looking to invest $14 million into this project. The availability of affordable housing will encourage households, who would otherwise not be able to afford to live in the Central City, especially young, first home buyers and families. A greater number of people living in the Central City will bring vibrancy, variety and business activity to the area and increase use of the new and returning facilities, open spaces, retail and entertainment areas. The Council has explored new housing solutions in response to changing lifestyles and urban growth challenges. The available housing typologies demonstrate a wide range of best practice choices to deliver high-quality houses and neighbourhood amenity in existing and new residential areas in

Neighbourhood Centres the Central City, including mixed use designs. The Council is also supporting a number of initiatives for green housing.
Affordable housing project Where: Where opportunity is available When: Starting 2012 Who: The Council and partners Cost: $14 million

The CCCP has identified five broad areas within the city as potential neighbourhood centers to provide a focus and identity for existing and new residential communities. The geographical extent, focal points and character of these neighborhoods will evolve over time. These neighbourhood centres will be accessible and support day-today needs of the local communities with convenience shopping and local services and facilities in close proximity. Some centres already exist and will be redeveloped; some areas are recognized as neighborhoods but have no identified centre; while others will evolve as more residents move into the Central City and new neighborhoods emerge. (See proposed precincts map to on the next page.)
Neighbourhood centres project Where: Identified neighbourhood centres When: 2012 to 2018

Affordable housing will encourage more people to call the Central City home. Source: Christchurch City Council, 2011

Who: Christchurch City Council to implement, working in collaboration with community organizations (e.g. churches) and social service agencies Cost: $2.9 million

Housing Showcase The council is also looking at high quality, commercially viable examples of residential development that will inspire developers and show potential residents the benefits of living in the Central City. There will be $200,000 worth of funding every year for this programme starting in 2012. The Housing Showcase will be created early in the redevelopment of the city to help motivate high-quality urban design outcomes for Christchurch. It will focus on new mixed-use, inner-city neighbourhood displaying medium density homes, based on sustainable design principles. The Council will consider establishing a number of housing showcases if the opportunity arises.
Housing showcase project Where: Size and location to be decided with development partners When: Early in the redevelopment process to influence other developments (201213) Who: Christchurch City Council, Department of Building and Housing, Beacon Pathway, private developers and technology providers Cost: $200,000 annually for three years

Proposed future precincts and areas of interest. Source: Christchuch City Council, 2011

Proposed future neighbourhood scenario Source: Christchuch City Council, 2011

Housing affordability draft report (Auckland Focus) opened up for housing, especially in “If the Authorities had made urban areas, because sections now average about 40% to 60% of the cost of affordable land available a house. from the outset with $50,000 sections on the fringes, there would have been in excess of 5,000 new homes available for people now”. -Hugh Pavletich • Reconsideration of Auckland’s draft spatial plan. Auckland faces significant housing affordability challenges and the Commission found its current plan, with a target of accommodating 75% of new homes within existing urban boundaries, will be difficult to reconcile with affordable housing. at the top-end of the market. No one is going to put a $150,000 home on a $300,000 section,” Mr Sherwin said. The cost of building materials and house construction is also high in New Zealand compared to Australia, and the home construction sector’s productivity is flat-lining. The high costs of building and land are constraining the supply of affordable new houses available for purchase. Yet, New Zealand faces a growing population.

Commission Chair Murray Sherwin says, “The 2001-2007 housing boom was unprecedented with house prices almost doubling over that period.” “Affordable quality housing is fundamental to successful communities. And it’s abundantly clear that for younger people and those on lower incomes there is a missing step on the property ladder, particularly in Auckland. The chances of them ever purchasing their first home are decreasing.” The Commission’s key recommendations include:

• Improved processes for consenting, to speed up the service and lower costs. Projections are for around 400,000 new households over the next 20 years, with • Improving how local council half of these in Auckland. development charges for infrastructure are calculated and applied, including “We think it’s important to make making them reviewable. urgent changes to accommodate what’s coming down the line,” Mr Sherwin • The Commission considers that said. there is scope to improve productivity in the home construction sector and endorses the work of the Building and Construction Sector Productivity Partnership, established in 2010 as a joint industry-government initiative. The Commission found that land prices now account for up to 60% of the cost of a house in Auckland.

• The urgent need for more land to be “That means new homes tend to be

Christchurch Quick Facts
2006 Population 2031 Population Population growth from 06-31 Average annual growth rate New housing units needed to accomodate in ux of workers New housing units needed to accomodate population growth New housing units break down by type** 348,435 422,100 73,665 0.85% 24,000+ 75,000*
74% Separate House 22% Two or more Flats/Units Joined 4% Others/ Not De ned

Average number of new housing units constructed per year
* GCUDS ** 2006 Stats NZ Data

1000 aprox.

Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

Christchurch’s Demographics In order to understand the housing requirement for Christchurch, it is important to study the demographic makeup of the city. After gathering in depth data regarding the demographics, then is logical to apply an urban strategy according to the findings. What were the immediate impacts This may suggest an outward migration after the Earthquakes? of Christchurch City population to the surrounding Canterbury regions postStatistics New Zealand released its sub- earthquake. (Statistics NZ, 2011) national population estimates for June 2011 in late October 2011. Impact on education and enrolment Data at 13 September 2011 shows 5442 students were still away from their original school within Selwyn, Waimakariri and Christchurch. Of these, 1600 had moved within Christchurch, and 375 and 225 had moved within or to Wamakariri and Selwyn respectively. The total net loss of school students is around 3250 from the GCUDS area or 4.3% of the total students at July 2010. (Statistics NZ, 2011)

These showed that between June 2010 and June 2011, Christchurch city lost 8900 people. This compares with a Total Population long-term average annual increase of >348,435 people usually live in about 3500 people per annum since Christchurch City. This is an increase 1996. of 24,375 people, or 7.5 percent, since This loss was in the 0 to 14 (4,800) and the 2001 Census. 15 to 39 (5,200) year age groups. >Its population ranks 2nd in size out of Factors contributing to this decrease the 73 districts in New Zealand. included: >Christchurch City has 8.7 percent of > an increased outflow of young children New Zealand’s population and their parents

What are the population projections > an increased outflow of young adults, Influx of construction and other and how will that affect housing? who tend to be a highly mobile sub- workers heading to Christchurch generated by the earthquake. Populations are projected to rise by group of the population

60,300 to 422,100 in 2031 (at the medium variant), which is a 17% increase in the > a decrease in the number of young In the Press on 34 March 2012, the adults moving to Christchurch city to Canterbury Employment and Skills period of 25 years. study. Board estimates that the earthquake rebuild will require 24,000 carpenters, The GCUDS expects at least 75,000 While Christchurch city’s population painters, labourers, concrete layers new housing units to accommodate decreased, the remainder of the and other trades, plus a further 12,000 this increase in population. Canterbury region experienced managers, accountants, engineers, population growth of 3,900 (2.1 percent). shop staff and hospitality workers, to

support them. That is a total of 20,000 to 30,000 workers, plus in many cases their families. “We’re talking about a 10-to-15 year rebuild. So, for many, it is going to be a potentially permanent move...” says Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend. (Stuff.co.nz, 2012) Many of the arriving workers will be older skilled tradespeople, and they are usually married with one or two kids. This will put more pressure on the supply of housing in Christchurch. Townsend gives quiet a grim analogy of the current situation: “The simple way that I look at it is we’ve effectively lost an Ashburton inside our city if you look at the houses that have been destroyed.” And to accommodate the influx of workers, we will need another two Ashbutons. Townsend concludes that “...we need a total of another three Ashburtons inside Christchurch by the end of next year.”(Stuff.co.nz, 2012)
Ashburton Population: 30,000 Households: 10,821

“We need a total of three Ashburtons inside Christchurch by end of next year...”

4.1 Age & Sex The median age is 36.4 years for people in Christchurch City, which is slightly older compared to the rest of New Zealand as a whole, where the median age is 35.9 years. >Christchurch City has a higher percentage of population aged 65 years and over, at 13.5%, compared with 12.3 percent of the total New Zealand population. >The distribution of males and This data proves that the future females are about even at 48% and 52% Christchurch population will have more respectively. “empty nesters”, where old couples have stayed, while the younger generations Age and Sex Projections have migrated away. Overall the population of Christchurch City tends to be on older, with majority of population in the older age-groups.

Projections show that the trend will continue this way, with the “baby >18.8 percent of people are aged under boomers” (those aged 45-64 in 2011) 15 years in Christchurch City, compared moving to the 65-84 age groups in 2031. with 21.5 percent for all of New Zealand.

Median age is 36.4 years for people in Christchurch City



Projections show dominant age group to be 65-84 years in 2031


4.2 Ethnicity The ethnic make-up of Christchurch City is dominated by Europeans at 75%, and the Maori and Pacific peoples account for 11%. Asians make up about 8%. > In 2006, over two thirds (68 per cent) of Central City residents identified with the European ethnic group. This has decreased from 88 per cent in 1996. > In 2006, almost one-fifth (19 per cent) of Central City residents identified with the Asian ethnic group. This has increased from 7 percent in 1996. > In 2006, 6.5 per cent of Central City residents identified with the Maori ethnic group. This has decreased from 8 per cent in 1996. > In 2006, 1.6 per cent of Central City residents identified with the Pacific Peoples ethnic group. This has decreased from 2 percent in 1996. (Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Proportion of ethnicity among the population Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

Ethnicity proportion of population living in Central City Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006


4.3 Impact of Earthquake on Households Market Economics was contracted to provide a household model that took into account the impact of the earthquake on the UDS projections, and subsequently, the impact on projections within the three Central City area units. This model uses three UDS level scenarios that reflect possible impacts on future growth as a result of the earthquake. The low impact scenario assumes a small immediate loss of households (2%) and a return to the normal growth rate relatively quickly. The major impact scenario assumes a high level of initial loss (5%), with growth taking longer to recover. The medium impact scenario is the half-way point between both scenarios. Note all scenarios expect growth to return to normal after about 10 years. (See line graph to the right)

250,000 240,000 230,000 220,000
Projected Households

UDS Pre Earthquake UDS - low impact scenario UDS - medium impact scenario UDS - High impact scenario

210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 2006 2011 post earthquake 2016 Projection Year 2021 2031 2041

Future scenarios of household numbers for the Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy area. Source: CCCP, 2011


4.4 Household Changes Statistics New Zealand projections of household composition and age structure indicate the demographic drivers of the shift towards smaller households, the main one being an increase in couple and single person households over the 25 years from 2006 to 2031. This compared with modest growth in two parent families and a likely contraction in single parent families a pattern most pronounced in Christchurch. The resulting fall in average household size is what informs projections of the potential for higher residential densities, both as a result of the general tendency towards smaller households and because families with children are becoming a smaller component of the long-term housing profile. This expectation is moderated for Auckland, where past migration gains and ethnic diversity have maintained a younger age profile. Analysis of Statistics New Zealand agespecific projections casts some light on the possible consequences of the overall changes in household type. By far the bulk of people driving future growth in single and two person households are empty nesters (represented by people aged between 50 to 64 years for present



Share of Projected Growth in Region, 2006-2031





0.0% New Zealand -10.0% Auckland Christchurch



One Parent

Two Parent

Single Person

Other Multi-Person

Changing Household Composition, 2006-2031 Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

One-person are

households to

In 2006, there were 41,900 couples in Christchurch. By 2031, there will be 62,200 couples. That increase of 48% ! is an


increase by an average of 2.0 percent a year, from 363,000 in 2006 to 602,000 in 2031.


purposes) and early or active retirees (represented by people aged 65 to 79 years; Figure 4). Together they account for 74% of the projected growth in smaller households. Analysis of apartment dwellers in 2006 suggests that currently these groups are not likely to reside in apartments, particularly in the central of city. (Dunbar & McDermott, 2011) Household composition > In 2006, 41 percent of Central City households consisted of one family, compared with 66 percent city-wide.

> In 2006, 15 per cent of Central City households consisted of other multi- >In 2006, 17 per cent of Central City person households (in a non-family families were couples with children, situation, e.g. flatting), compared with compared with 40 per cent city-wide. 7 per cent city-wide. >In 2006, 15 per cent of Central City > In 2006, 40 per cent of Central City families were one parent with children, households consisted of one-person compared with 18 per cent city-wide. households, compared with 25 per cent Growing trend of inner city dwellings city-wide.

Make up of family type in the Central City Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

population. By contrast, only around 15% of people living in inner city and 25% in outer city apartments were aged over 50 years, compared with a 29% share of the total population.

The young adults who have dominated the expansion of inner city apartment living form only 11% of the gain The 2010 Statistics New Zealand survey projected in the small household group (Statistics NZ, 2006 census) of apartment dwellers in Auckland in Canterbury. Wellington, and Christchurch in Family type 2006 indicated that 49% of inner city Their declining share of the market >In 2006, 68 per cent of Central City apartment dwellers were aged between raises questions over how far the families were couples without children, 20 and 29 years, and 24% of non inner momentum they have provided for city dwellers. These figures were well apartment dwelling in central city compared with 42 per cent city-wide. ahead of a 13% share of the national locations will be sustained.

By contrast, the empty nester group accounts for 47% of the expansion among the couples and single-dominated age in Christchurch. These people are more important early in the period, but the weight swings progressively to the early retired group later. In fact, people aged over 50 years account for around 55% of all projected population growth in Auckland, 52% in Wellington, and 53% in Christchurch. While the projections are indicative only, the strong inference is that the projected growth in demand for smaller houses is shifting from the young adults and non-family households with whom they have been associated to a fast expanding empty nester segment and increasingly the early retirement segment. This may even help explain an apparently slow uptake of medium density housing, suggesting that older couples do not necessarily downsize their housing, at least not until well after the children have left home. Many also favour remaining in familiar neighborhoods when they do downsize. The assumption that a growing number of smaller households will lift demand for centralised, multi-unit and multi-

Projected Distribution of Younger and Older Adults, 2006-2031 Source: Statistics New Zealand, 2006

storey housing may be a misreading of current market preferences among those cohorts which are now behind the increase in smaller households. (Dunbar & McDermott, 2011)


4.5 Income The median annual household income in Christchurch is $48,200 (Auckland $72,000) – where in the poorer east it is just $46,000, the lowest of any major metro in New Zealand and Australia. (Cantaburians Unite, 2012) > In 2006, the median household income was $48,200. This is an increase of 32 per cent since 2001, when the median household income was $36,500. > In 2006, ‘one-parent with child(ren)’ families were more likely to be on lower incomes than other family types. Such families were far less likely to be on higher incomes than other family types. > In 2006, only 7 per cent of ‘one-parent with child(ren)’ families earned over $70,000 per year, compared with 46 per cent of ‘couple with child(ren)’ families and 33 per cent of ‘couple without children’ families. > Generally household incomes are proportionally higher in the Central City as a whole. (Statistics NZ, 2006 census)

Family Income by Family Type Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

Household Income, 2001 and 2006 Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006

4.6 Median House Sale Prices Rapidly increasing house sale prices have a significant impact on housing affordability for first time home buyers; while decreasing house sale prices make housing more affordable for those trying to get into the market. Housing costs are generally the largest component of household expenditure. The cost of housing plays a major part in the ability of households and families to own their own home, as well as affecting the level of residual income to spend on other essential household costs such as food and power. House sale prices are one of three components that influence housing affordability; the other two being income and mortgage interest rates. (Statistics NZ, 2006 census) > In October 2010, the six-monthly running average median house price was $333,800. > Between October 2002 and March 2008, the average median house sale price in Christchurch more than doubled, increasing from $154,600 to peak at $332,800. This indicates the start and peak of the New Zealand “housing boom”. > In October 2010, 343 houses were sold. The lowest number of sales in the above time series was 237 in September 2010 (which can be attributed to the 7.1M earthquake that month), while the highest number was 1,191 in March 1996.
This graph shows the number of monthly house sales and the average median house price in Christchurch from January 1995 to 2010. Source: Real Estate Institute of New Zealand: Housing Facts.

Rental Prices researched...




4.7 Current Housing Supply According to Statistics New Zealand, in main dwelling type in the City (74%). 2006, there was a total of 134,718 private There has been an increase of 23,270 separate houses between 1986 and occupied dwellings in Christchurch. 2006, which is an increase of 31%.
Christchurch Dwelling Type 2006
Separate House Two or more Flats or Houses Joined Together Private Dwelling Not Further Defined Others 4%

Multiunit dwellings are the second most popular option at 29,895. However, between 1986 and 2006, the number of private dwellings that were ‘two or more flats or houses joined together’ only increased by 4,260. This is an increase of 16.6%.

Source: Statistics New Zealand , 2006


This suggests Christchurch has a strong preference for the separate house typology (this is clearly shown in What is the construction rate? the chart on the right) , and this needs to change if the city council wants to 933 dwellings were under construction in Christchurch City, during the 2006 implement its new plans for housing. Statistics NZ Census. This compared with 13,560 under construction Housing Tenure throughout New Zealand.

On a population basis there is 5 times more residential construction in Selwyn and 6 times more in Waimakariri, than there is in Christchurch City. House Source: Statistics New Zealand Data Set, 2006 prices and rents are still inflating Christchuch is one of few cities to have because of severe supply restrictions. This is an additional 31,035 occupied higher levels of home ownership than (Cantaburians Unite, 2012) dwellings (30%) since 1986. Almost all the rest of New Zealand (53.8%). of this growth was in private dwellings. Where do people live? ‘Separate houses’ continue to be the

In Christchurch City, 57.6 percent of households in private occupied dwellings own the dwelling, with or without a mortgage.

Christchurch’s Central City (inside the

four avenues) accommodates 30% of total city employment (52,000 people). In 2006, of the people working in the Central City, 1602 people commuted from the Selwyn District and 2031 people commuted from the Waimakariri District. The number of people travelling from the Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts to work in Christchurch City is increasing. (GCTMD, 2007) Where do people work? This map shows employment density (people per hectare) in metropolitan Christchurch at the mesh block level. The central city business zones and the city’s hospitals were areas with the highest concentration of employees. > In 2010, there were 184,850 employees in Christchurch City. This was almost 10% of New Zealand’s total (1,889,900). >Employment within the Four Avenues accounted for 28% of the total employment in Christchurch. In 2010, the total employee count within the Four Avenues was 51,270. > Areas in and around the suburban shopping centres and malls also had high concentrations of employees, particularly employees in the retail trade. industry.

Usual residence and place of work 2006 and 1996 Census
Usual Residence Commuting Destination Waimakariri District 2006 Waimakariri District Christchurch City Selwyn District 1,413 75 966 39 146,910 7,767 130,209 4,833 2,433 7,968 1,995 6,474 9,033 1996 7,398 2006 8,931 1996 6,579 2006 126 1996 99 Christchurch City Selwyn District

Source: GCTMD, 2007

Employment Density in Christchurch, 2010 Source: Statistics New Zealand , 2010

4.8 Real Estate Market The median house price for Christchurch was down from $355,000 in November 2011 to $346,000 in December, a decrease of $9,000 (2.5%). The number of houses sold increased from 470 to 487 from November to December 2011. (Canterbury Development Corporation, 2012) The housing market has dropped back a bit, with prices falling from $346,000 to $337,000 between December and January and a decline in the number of houses sold. These numbers are very variable, however, heavily reliant on individual extreme prices. 4.9 Automobile Dependency

Average House Prices in Christchurch’s major suburbs. Source: REINZ, 2011

> 96% of cars travelling to work have a single occupant.
Mode share for all trips (Greater Christchurch, 2006)
Bus 2.2% Bike 2.4% Walk 9.3% Other 1.5%

> 60% of Christchurch residents drive to New Zealand has one of the highest carwork compared to 40% in Wellington. ownership ratios in the OECD This is a huge influencing factor when it comes > Car travel is still growing at 2.5% per to urban design and the future housing annum - traffic volumes are expected to for Christchuch. have increased by 27% by 2026. Christchuch travel trends snapshot: > 39% of people in Canterbury reported that they could replace car trips by > 34% of morning peak time travel is walking and cycling on at least two education-related, with over half the days most weeks. children at primary school being driven by car; with similar numbers being (GCTMD,2007) driven or driving to secondary school.

Driver 53.1%

Passenger 31.5%

Source: (GCTMD,2007)

4.10 Current Housing Demand Housing demand is heavily concentrated in the main urban areas, especially Auckland and Christchurch. Auckland accounts for around 46% of total national demand growth over the next decade with about 100,000 additional dwellings required in total, or about 10,000 dwellings annually. Canterbury is next, with 12% of the national total, somewhat over 26,000 additional dwellings over the decade, or about 2,600-2,800 annually. (Fairgray, 2009) Out of the Canterbury region, Christchuch City’s household growth accounts for 16,110. Canterbury’s growth is predominantly in the urban areas as defined in the Greater Christchurch Urban Development Strategy (GCUDS), with two thirds of the growth (16,000 dwellings) in Christchurch City, and one-third (8,000) on the urban fringe and towns (Rangiora, Kaiapoi).

Household Growth by Region 2010-2019
Household Growth by Region 2010-2019

Auckland Canterbury 46% Wellington Waikato Bay of Plenty Rest of N.Z 12%
Source: Statistics NZ Medium Population Projection

7% 9% 9%

Projected Household Growth in Main Urban Areas 2010 - 2019


HOUSE PRICES AND RENTAL RATES House prices and rental rates continue to increase as the availability of houses decrease, setting o a long chain of events. The e ect of increased housing prices arising from severe shortages could have negative repercussions for economic growth and living standards.

EMPLOYMENT A huge in ux of workers are to be expected for the re-building of Christchurch. The lack of accommodation poses a big problem for the workers and their families moving into the city. This will cause reluctance among the workforce to migrate and work. It is estimated that there will be around 36,000 workers heading towards Christchurch for the rebuild in the next 10-15 years. That equates to roughly 15,000 new households.

EDUCATION Large amount of students have already left the city and enrolled else-where around the country. The lack of rental properties and in ated rental prices leaves the incoming students with little choice but to leave.




MIGRATION With a limited amount of housing stock and a high price tags, Christchuch is nd it hard to attract incoming migrants. It is also hard to retain usual residents; those who cannot a ord a new house after their pay-out are leaving the city seeking accommodation elsewhere. We have already seen a loss of 8900 people from Christchurch City due to the earthquake. If there is no action is taken to solve the housing problem, it will be very di cult to attract people back into the city.

Due to the lack of adequate housing option after the earthquakes, many people are living in sub-standard houses that are damaged. Often the houses that are still in decent condition will have to accommodated for more people in the short-term, leading to “Students are nding no overcrowding issues. accommodation, creating another reason to bypass Christchurch for their education for the next few years.” - Peter Townsend, Christchurch Chamber of Commerce Chief Executive


4.11 Housing Types A wide range of different house types currently exist within the region, from standalone houses in rural and suburban settings to high rise apartments in the inner city. This section aims to categorise these house types into a number of core housing typologies that can be used to derive what housing needs the population may have in the future. It is important to know whether the key typologies identified will accommodate the future population adequately. Therefore density is an important component of a typology, as it determines the number of dwellings or people that can be accommodated in an area. This section explores density in more depth, considering the two measures of density; dwellings and people; and also the perception of density, to understand the relationship between typology and density. Household Categorized by Type and Age

Total Housing Stock : 291,273

Christchurch housing stock categorized into types. Source: Beacon, 2009

> Mass built detached houses from the increased and the need for medium 1940s - 1960s dominates the housing density housing is higher. We should stock in Christchurch, with a 31% share. be building more multi-units. > Separate house from the 1970s - 1980s account for 20% > Building of multi-units post 1996 has decreased significantly, at only 5,412 units. Compared to 18,172 units from the 1960s. That is a 235% negative change between 1960s and 1996. This is odd, since population has

to be researched more in depth

make info-graphic for this

4.12 Temporary Housing The Christchurch City Council has already stared to take various actions to temporarily relieve the housing shortage. As of 24th April 2012, money has been allocated to speed up repairs on Housing New Zealand and Christchurch City rental properties. This will significantly help those who are struggling to recover in the quake devastated region. Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee says the new initiatives will relieve pressure on the rental market by bringing new stock into the system. Mr. Brownlee says there are 700 properties available for rent in Christchurch at present, but he admits finding suitable accommodation is becoming harder. (Radio New Zealand, 2012) Key events which are bringing new housing supply to the market are: > Housing New Zealand has closed a tender to speed up repair of over 600 of its quake damaged properties, the first 115 of which will be available progressively from June, 2012. > The Earthquake Commission (EQC) has just agreed to pay $21 million to Christchurch City Council, allowing the council to begin repairs to around

280 quake damaged rental properties. > The Department of Building and Housing (DBH) will establish another new temporary accommodation village at Rawhiti Domain in New Brighton, adding another 20 two-bedroom units. This will bring the total temporary housing stock to 83.

(Radio New Zealand, 2012)

“We’re also helping hundreds of households access temporary accommodation with guidance and financial support through the Canterbury Earthquake Temporary Accommodation Service (CETAS), a joint venture between the Department of Building and Housing and the The government is looking into the Ministry of Social Development. social housing sector to explore ways of helping the vulnerable Cantabrians. The Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) met with of 40 representatives of social housing agencies engaged to work on short and medium term solutions to increasing the rental housing supply in Christchurch. Linwood Park Village in The Government has already built 63 houses in two temporary accommodation villages at Linwood Park in Christchurch City and Kaiapoi Domain in the Waimakariri District. The Kaiapoi village is presently 77 per cent full, and the Linwood Park village is 78 per cent full. “Those villages are working very well for residents who need a temporary place to stay while essential earthquake repairs are carried out on their homes,” Mr Brownlee said.
Christchurch City, 41 units.

Kaiapoi Domain Village in the Waimakariri district, 22 units.

Rawhiti Domain in New Brighton, 63 two bedroom units coming soon...

5.0 Summary of findings
Market Summary In Christchurch and Auckland, the growth strategies are focussing on residential intensification within the existing metropolitan limits, with limited outward expansion, and a lower share of development in greenfield areas. This implies two substantial changes in the land market in those cities. Changes in housing type

One is a progressive shift in the nature of demand, toward a wider range of dwelling styles and especially toward medium and high density dwelling styles. Obviously, the drive for higher density means smaller private land area per household and per person, complicated by the parallel trend toward greater dwelling and indoor living space per person. The aim for the efficiencies of compact cities means a shift away from separate dwellings, toward multi-unit dwellings, and much greater built intensity on the land. This is consistent, to some degree, with declining average household sizes as Urban Redevelopment the population ages. A third process is re-development of Changes in land-use business land to residential uses, which typically involves medium or high

The second is a shift in how the land supply market will operate. A progressively smaller share of supply will come from relatively large greenfield reserves, while a progressively larger share of supply will come through the intensification process, and brownfield development. Intensification comes from a set of more complex processes. One is through decisions by individual residential property owners to subdivide an existing section, to fit on a second dwelling, or to sell it so that someone else can build. Another is also by individual property owners’ decisions to re-develop, and build themselves a new dwelling while also adding one or a few more dwellings, which usually involves a change from one separate house to 2-4 town houses or units. A key feature of these processes is that they occur at a small scale and arise from many individual ad hoc decisions. They are not usually part of an integrated or planned process, and are difficult to forecast in other than aggregate terms (eg assume 5% of existing developed residential properties in this area will add another dwelling over the next decade). (Fairgray, 2009)

intensity residential because of the higher value of business land, and the higher costs involved in redevelopment as distinct from greenfield growth. Related to this is the process of combining commercial and residential capacity on a single site, usually with apartments on the upper levels above offices. This combination of activities requires that both commercial and residential markets are sufficiently attractive to invest, especially the commercial which commonly accounts for the major part of mixed development. Residential development on business land typically involves a medium scale of residential capacity (apart from CBD apartments from office-block conversions). And these developments also tend to occur in an ad hoc manner as opportunity arises, rather than through comprehensive redevelopment over substantial areas. (Fairgray, 2009) This means the delivery of residential supply in the two major centres of growth – Auckland and Christchurch, accounting for close to 58% of total national demand – is likely to be at progressively smaller scale and based on many individual decisions, as distinct from the typically larger scale which has characterised greenfield developments on the urban edge, in the past.

Profile of the Target Market / Sub-market The gathered information on demographics of the Christchurch City area has identified several key housing markets to address, to ensure the correct housing typology will be supplied. These are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Young Single Households Couples without children who are high income earners Elderly / “Empty Nesters” trending Average household size is decreasing Educated working population / Students working towards a degree Professionals with medium to high incomes and disposable income Working population in the trade area with medium to high income

What we need right now housing wise: Short term rentals / temporary housing for displaced people post-earthquake. New housing for 36,000+ workers coming into Christchurch by end of 2013. New housing for potential students, workers and growing families. New housing for trending older age-group, baby boomers generation.


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