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A Final Project of Probability & Statistics in which applied Statical tools, for to use practical life.

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Acknowledgement

We at first bow our heads before Allah Almighty, who has bestowed His countless

blessings upon ourselves, guided us towards the way of success, blessed us with the

courage of facing the problems and obstacles and finally enabled us to accomplish this

project work.

We wish to place our deep sense of thanks to our respected teacher Mr. Abid Awan, who

guided us to complete this project in a true sense. His valuable experience and knowledge

of the field removed the difficulty at all crucial junctures.

In the end, we pay our compliments to all those people who had been cooperative to us

during the completion of the project and those who directly or indirectly helped us in

completing our project on time.

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Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Dedication

We are dedicating our project on the “Fan Industry of Gujrat” to our respected teacher

Mr. Abid Awan for his effort to transfer the essence of his experience and knowledge to

his students.

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S. No

Table of contents Page No

1 Executive Summary 5

2 Objective 6

3 Introduction 7

4 Companies selected 11

5 Profile of Al Jamil Fans 11

6 Profile of Gull Fans 11

7 Profile of Finex Fans 12

8 Raw Data 13

9 Explanation of Raw Data 14

10 Data Analysis 15

11 Excel Work of Al Jamil Fans 16

12 Manual Work of Al Jamil Fans 17

13 Mean + Interpretation 17

14 Median + Interpretation 18

15 Standard Deviation + Interpretation 19

16 Coefficient of Variation + Interpretation 20

17 Skewness + Interpretation 21

18 Mean Deviation About Mean + Interpretation 22

19 Correlation + Interpretation 23

20 Regression + Interpretation 25

21 Excel Work of Gull Fans 28

22 Manual Work of Gull Fans 29

23 Mean + Interpretation 29

24 Median + Interpretation 30

25 Standard Deviation + Interpretation 31

26 Coefficient of Variation + Interpretation 32

27 Skewness + Interpretation 33

28 Mean Deviation About Mean + Interpretation 33

29 Correlation + Interpretation 34

30 Regression + Interpretation 36

31 Excel Work of Finex Fans 39

32 Manual Work of Finex Fans 40

33 Mean + Interpretation 40

34 Median + Interpretation 40

35 Standard Deviation + Interpretation 42

36 Coefficient of Variation + Interpretation 43

37 Mean Deviation About Mean + Interpretation 44

38 Skewness + Interpretation 45

39 Correlation + Interpretation 46

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40 Regression + Interpretation 48

41 Table of Comparison 50

42 Comparison Explanation 51

43 Conclusion 54

44 Recommendation(s) 55

Executive summary

This project report is basically related to the fan industry of Gujrat. Gujrat is the city

having a large number of fan manufacturing units and among them we have selected

three fan manufacturing companies for our project. First of all, we have selected two

important variables of these companies for our project and these variables are:

advertisements and sales. The data related to these variables has been collected for each

of the three companies individually. Further various statistical tools including mean,

median, and mode, mean deviation for mean; standard deviation and coefficient of

variation have been applied on both of the variables of each of the three companies. After

that the correlation between these variables has been found and the regression analysis of

these variables is also done. Finally each of the three companies is compared with each

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other on the basis of the results obtained after applying these statistical tools. And in the

end the conclusion of the whole report is given after analyzing the data completely.

Objective

The main objective of performing this project is to enhance our knowledge through

practically applying those statistical techniques that we have been learning throughout the

whole semester. Although we have been studying these techniques in many books but still

we have never applied them practically in the real life, so this project has greatly helped

us to understand the real life situations and applications of the various statistical

techniques and enhanced our knowledge related to this particular field of study.

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Introduction:

Fan is a daily use item. Its utility increases, especially in the summer season. The Fan

Industry is producing about 5 to 6 million fans per annum and meeting successfully the

local as well as the export demand. Out of the total production,

approximately 30 per cent fans consist of pedestals, 7 per cent

brackets and the remaining 63 percent are ceiling fans. The

industry belongs to the light engineering industry category, and is

one of the industries that existed at the time of independence. In

the early 1950s, it was declared as cottage industry and its more than 50 per cent units

still fall in this category.

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The story of emergence of electric fan manufacturing industry in Pakistan is one of those

heroic efforts made by a few enterprising individuals who. Starting with nothing in early

1940s struggled against all odds and turned this concern into a most efficient industry in

Pakistan.

Fan industry is mainly confined to Gujranwala and Gujrat cities of the Punjab province.

The reason for its remaining a cottage industry is that majority of the units does not have

full facilities of production under one roof. They usually give orders to the units having

machines for different parts like fan guards, blade castings, core laminations etc. These

units have lathes, shapers, milling machines, and power pressers, die casting machines

and electroplating equipments. Therefore, most of the units are simply assembling units.

Thus, they do not give brand names to their products.

Besides small and medium units, a few units are quite large and have integrated system

i.e. from motor winding to high-pressure dies casting. These companies have reputed

brand names and the qualities of their products are of international level. These units are

the main players in the export field.

The industry is producing a variety of products in different sizes and designs. The major

products are: ceiling, pedestal, table, table-cum-pedestal fans, circulator fans, wall

bracket, exhaust fans and propellers.

The industry supplies quality products to the local markets, whether branded or

unbranded, at competitive prices. About 400 units have a production capacity of 5 to 6

million fans, on single shift basis. The production is equal to the demand, including a

nominal quantity of exports. The actual production has remained about 2.5 million fans

per annum, showing a 50 per cent idle capacity. The demand for fans is continuously

increasing due to increase in population and speedy migration towards big cities, and for

exports. The other factor is that during the last few years, local demand for quality

products is increasing fast as compared to low price goods. This means people are

becoming quality conscious.

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Major fan producing countries are Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, India and China.

Japan is covering high quality market segment of fan market. Korea and Hong Kong are

in middle segment of market while Pakistan, India, Taiwan and China are supplying

comparatively low quality products at cheaper prices.

Exports:

Although fans' exports have great potential, their export is negligible. In 1992-93, only

two-lack fans were exported to only two countries, Iraq and Yemen. But now the industry

is exporting fans to more than 25 countries.

The figures given in table-I indicate that although the exports of ceiling fan increased

from Rs.134 thousand to 209 million rupees, the trade is fluctuating a great deal. As

against ceiling fans, the increase in pedestal fan export is quite stable i.e., continuously

rising.

Pakistan has also started exporting parts of fans. During the last four years, as shown in

table-II, the amount earned from export rose from Rs4.2 million to Rs107 million in

1998-01, but decreased to about fifty per cent the very next year, 2001-02. However, in

spite of big fluctuations, it is believed that if some bottlenecks are removed there is a big

scope for enhancing the export of fans.

Government Role:

The situation is that from very the beginning, the government has not given any

incentives to encourage fan industry i.e. whatever progress the industry made, it has made

on its own resources, and is due to its dedicated and hard working manufacturers and

laborers. In spite of the lack of proper training the industry has innovated and uplifted the

standard to the level where its products can compete in the world markets.

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1989-90 134 1,289

1992-93 81,762 1,826

1993-94 18,636 15,137

1998-99 2,552 32,432

1999-00 15,689 66,370

2000-01 59,259 161,554

2001-02 208,963 183,613

TABLE - II

1998-99 4.2

1999-00 16.6

2000-01 109.7

2001-02 57.5

Ceiling Fans Rs.2.6 Million Rs.15.7 Million Rs.59.3 Million Rs.208.9 Million

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Pedestal Fans Rs.32.4 Millions Rs.66.4 Million Rs.161.6 Million Rs.183.6 Million

Exhaust Fans Rs.0.1 Million Rs.0.1 Million Rs.0.1 Million ----------------

Other Fans Rs.2.9 Million Rs.6.9 Million Rs.5.1 Million Rs.27.2 Million

Other Fans N.S Rs.3.0 Million Rs.9.7 Million Rs.5.3 Million Rs.2.0 Million

Companies Selected:

We have selected three fan manufacturing companies for our project and these companies

are:

• Al Jamil Fans

• Gull Fans

• Finex Fans

The data related to these companies has been collected for the two specific variables

which are advertisements and sales. Before going to the next section of the data analysis,

we would first give a brief history or profile of each of the three companies.

Al Jamil Fan industry was established in 1987 and the founder

this industry was Mr. Khalid Javaid, who named the company

after the name of his son Mr. Jamil Javaid. In the beginning this

company had been operated on partnership basis and the name of

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the partner was Mr. Fateh Muhammad but with the passage of time Mr. Khalid Javaid

became a sole proprietor and run the company individually. The company has also got

ISO 9001 quality certificate

This company was established in 1974 and its founder is Sufi

Ghulam Hussain who had also named his company after the name

of his son Gull Pervaiz Butt. The company also produces export

quality fans and also export there products to Dubai and Saudi

Arabia. This company has also got the quality certificate ISO

9001

The company was established in 1994 and its founders name is

Chaudhary Imran Cheema. This company is not a big one and is

comparatively on a lower level as compared to the above two

companies. The present chairman of the company is the brother of

Chaudhary Imran and his name is Chaudhary Nouman Cheema.

This company does not have any quality certificate.

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Raw Data

Al- Jamil Fan Fine X Fan

2005 P.F=1700 C.F=1200 Sales Adver. 2005 P.F=1600 C.F=1150 Sales Adver.

Jan 475 900 1,382,000 6,250 Jan 375 680 1,382,000 5,000

Feb 450 925 1,353,500 6,000 Feb 350 690 1,353,500 4,800

March 500 875 1,378,500 7,000 March 380 670 1,378,500 5,100

April 500 900 1,343,250 7,500 April 340 695 1,343,250 4,300

May 470 900 1,324,250 5,500 May 350 665 1,324,250 4,600

Jun 400 1000 1,379,500 5,000 Jun 395 650 1,379,500 5,200

July 500 925 1,406,000 6,800 July 390 680 1,406,000 5,500

Aug 300 800 1,236,500 4,500 Aug 320 630 1,236,500 4,200

2006 P.F=1900 C.F=1350 Sales Adver. 2006 P.F=1700 C.F=1250 Sales Adver.

Jan 600 1300 1,927,000 9,000 Jan 435 950 1,927,000 12,000

Feb 550 1300 1,956,000 8,500 Feb 430 980 1,956,000 11,500

March 670 1250 1,994,500 9,100 March 460 970 1,994,500 12,200

April 500 1350 1,910,500 8,300 April 440 930 1,910,500 12,100

May 600 1300 1,921,250 8,900 May 450 925 1,921,250 11,500

Jun 700 1170 1,898,000 9,200 Jun 440 920 1,898,000 12,800

July 480 1100 1,915,000 7,000 July 450 920 1,915,000 11,300

Aug 450 1100 1,784,000 6,700 Aug 395 890 1,784,000 11,000

2007 P.F=1950 C.F=1400 Sales Adver. Jan 750 1150 3,015,000 15,500

Jan 900 1400 3,015,000 9,500 Feb 770 1100 2,986,500 14,300

Feb 900 1400 2,986,500 9,300 March 745 1130 2,978,250 15,000

March 800 1450 2,978,250 9,000 April 740 1160 3,009,000 15,200

April 600 1500 3,009,000 8,200 May 760 1140 3,021,000 14,700

May 700 1500 3,021,000 9,500 Jun 735 1105 2,925,000 14,500

Jun 700 1500 2,925,000 9,000 July 740 1120 2,955,000 14,800

July 600 1400 2,955,000 7,500 Aug 710 1100 2,869,500 14,000

Aug 550 1250 2,869,500 7,000

Gull Fans

2005 P.F=1600 C.F=1100 Sales Adver.

Jan 650 1200 2,360,000 11,000

Feb 700 1100 2,330,000 9,500

March 600 1150 2,225,000 9,000

April 650 1250 1,479,000 8,500

May 550 1150 2,145,000 9,700

Jun 720 1300 2,582,000 12,000

July 500 1100 2,010,000 10,000

Aug 530 1200 2,168,000 9,800

2006 P.F=1700 C.F=1200 Sales Adver. 2007 P.F=1900 C.F=1400 Sales Adver.

Jan 1050 1500 3,585,000 16,000 Jan 950 2000 4,605,000 13,500

Feb 1000 1450 3,440,000 14,500 Feb 1000 1800 4,420,000 13,000

March 1100 1500 3,670,000 16,100 March 1050 1900 4,655,000 14,000

April 1020 1470 3,498,000 15,000 April 900 1950 4,440,000 12,500

May 1050 1400 3,465,000 14,300 May 1000 2000 4,700,000 13,200

Jun 1000 1500 3,500,000 14,500 Jun 1100 1700 4,470,000 13,000

July 1100 1500 3,670,000 14,900 July 1000 1980 4,672,000 14,000

Aug 1000 1300 3,260,000 15,500 Aug 950 1780 4,297,000 12,000

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Given above is the data of three fan manufacturing companies that are Al Jamil Fans,

Gull Fans and Finex Fans. The data has been collected for 24 months. We have selected

two variables of each of these companies these are:

• Sales

• Advertisements

We will calculate the sales of the fans and the advertising expenditures of these

companies. For calculating the sales, we have chosen two types of fans that are produced

by each of these companies, and these fans are: pedestal and ceiling fans. The price of a

single unit of each of the two fans is multiplied by the number of units sold per month

and it makes the total sales of the fans per month, and finally by adding the sales of each

month we get the overall three year sales of the companies. Same is the case with the

advertising expenditures, for which again we will calculate the overall advertising

expenditure of three years for all these three companies. Finally this data will be analyzed

by using various statistical tools an actual calculations and interpretation of this data is

shown further.

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DATA

ANALYSIS

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Sale Advertisement

1,888 6

1,875 6

1,900 7

1,930 8

1,879 6

1,880 5

1,960 7

1,470 5

2,895 9

2,800 9

2,961 9

2,773 8

2,895 9

2,910 9

2,397 7

2,340 7

3,715 10

3,715 9

3,590 9

3,270 8

3,465 10

3,465 9

3,130 8

Sale Advertisement

2,823

Average 7

2,663 8

Median 2,811 8

Mean deviation about 593.02430 1.3046875

mean 6

Standard deviation 689.07258 1.529763586

8

Skewness -0.0453332 -0.522564549

Correlation 0.8861954

9

Coefficients

Intercept -417.7015121

X Variable 1 399.1813025

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Mean

In the very first phase we use the average method to analyze the data. Perhaps the most

important measure of location is the mean, which is average value. Mean is taken by all

small and large data values. It is denoted by x.

As average value represent the whole data by taking the sum of all values and further

divide by the total number of values.

Mean of Sales:

x = ∑x/ n

= 63926/24

= 2,663.6

Interpretation:

Here, we got the final value for sale that is 2,663.6. Which tells that average sale of the

fans during last 24 months are 2,663.6 and this value is in thousands.

Mean of advertisements:

x = ∑x/ n

= 187/24

= 7.8

Interpretation:

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The average value for advertisement is 7.8 that are also in thousands. It is representing

the whole data. It represents the amount that the companies spent on their advertisements

in 24 months.

Median

Median is also used to measure the average, the important characteristic of median is that

it s used when there is variation in the data. Median is more appropriate for the data that

has got some outliers. Median is the middle value of the data which is arranged in

ascending order. The median provides the better value than the mean.

Median of Sales:

1,470, 1,875, 1,879, 1,880, 1,887, 1,900, 1,930, 1,960, 2,340, 2,397, 2,773, 2,800, 2,895,

2,895, 2,910, 2,961, 2,823, 3,130, 3,270, 3,465, 3,465, 3,590, 3,715, 3,715,

= (n + 1)th/2

= (24 + 1)th/2

= 12.5th Value

= 2811.5

Interpretation:

The median in this case is 2811.5 which shows the better measure of the sales of the

company and is a better method of calculating the average.

Median of Advertisements:

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5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10, 10

= (n + 1)th/2

= (24 + 1)th/2

=12.5th Value

= 8 + .5 (8 – 8)

=8

Interpretation:

The median in this case is 8 which shows the better measure of the sales of the company

and is a better method of calculating the average.

Standard Deviation

Standard deviation is measured in the same units as the original data. It is the most

appropriate and reliable method of calculating the dispersion. We use the standard

deviation to bring the values to there actual position that have been made too large by

using variance by squaring the values. So, for this reason we move towards standard

deviation

=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2

= √181193148/24 - (63926/24)2

= √7549714.5 – (2663.6)2

= √7549714.5 – 7,094,764.96

= √454,949.54

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= 674.5

Interpretation:

This value basically shows the variation in the data. The fluctuation of data around the

mean is easily measured through this technique Here the spread in the data is 674.5, if

there is less variation and spread in the data then the data is better. So we can say that the

value of sales can lie between the ranges of 1989.1-3338.1 that is in thousands.

=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2

= √1507/24 - (187/24)2

= √62.8 – (7.79)2

= √62.8 – 60.68

= √2.2

= 1.48

Interpretation:

Here the spread in the data is 1.48, if there is less variation and spread in the data then the

data is better. So we can say that the value of advertisements can lie between the ranges

of 6.32 – 9.28 that is in thousands.

Coefficient of Variation

Coefficient of variation is used for the comparison between the two different variables.

This is the relative measure of variation; it measures the standard deviation relative to

mean.

= S/ ҳ X 100

= 674.5/2663.6 X 100

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= 25.322

Interpretation:

The coefficient of variation of sales according to the situation is 25.322 which shows the

per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk involved,

and the greater the CV the high risk involved.

= S/ ҳ X 100

= 1.48/7.8 X 100

= 18.97

Interpretation:

shows the per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk

involved, and the greater the CV the high risk involved.

Skewness

Skewness is a statistical tool that tells us about whether the given data is normally

distributed or not. If the data is not normally distributed, then it would either be positively

skewed or negatively skewed.

Skewness of Sales:

= 3 (mean – median)/S.D

= - 0.818

Interpretation:

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In this case the value of Skewnesss is -0.818 which clearly shows that the data is

negatively skewed and in case of negative Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the

smallest, median is greater and finally the mode is the greatest one.

Skewness of Advertisements:

= 3 (mean – median)/S.D

= 3 (7.8 – 8)/1.48

= -0.40

Interpretation:

The value of Skewnesss of advertising expenditures is -0.40 which is again negatively

skewed.

Mean deviation tells us about the actual deviation of the data from its arithmetic mean.

One of the drawbacks of this technique is that it ignores all the negative values due to

modulus. So it is not very much reliable.

= ∑|x-x|/n

= 14236/24

= 593.16

Interpretation:

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The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 593.16 which shows the deviation of

the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an

amount of 593.16.

= ∑|x-x|/n

= 29/24

= 1.20

Interpretation:

The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 1.20 which shows the deviation of

the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an

amount of 1.20.

Correlation

variables one is independent and the other one is dependent. Values of the correlation

coefficient are always between -1 and +1. A value of +1 indicates that two variables are

perfectly positively related and similarly a value of -1 indicates that two variables are

strongly negatively related. Here we have given a scale of measurement of correlation

between two variables.

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|______________|________________|_______________|______________|

-1 -.5 0 +.5 +1

Perfect -ve Moderate No relation Moderate Perfect +ve

Table

X Y Xy x2 y2

6 1,888

11,328 36 3564544

6 1,875

11,250 36 3515625

7 1,900

13,300 49 3610000

8 1,930

15,440 64 3724900

6 1,879

11,274 36 3530641

5 1,880

9,400 25 3534400

7 1,960

13,720 49 3841600

5 1,470

7,350 25 2160900

9 2,895

26,055 81 8381025

9 2,800

25,200 81 7840000

9 2,961

26,649 81 8767521

8 2,773

22,184 64 7689529

9 2,895

26,055 81 8381025

9 2,910

26,190 81 8468100

7 2,397

16,779 49 5745609

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7 2,340

16,380 49 5475600

10 3,715

37,150 100 13801225

9 3,715

33,435 81 13801225

9 3,590

32,310 81 12888100

8 3,270

26,160 64 10692900

10 3,465

34,650 100 12006225

9 3,465

31,185 81 12006225

8 3,130

25,040 64 9796900

7 2,823

19,761 49 7969329

181193148

187 63926 518,245 1507

N = 24

∑x = 187

∑y = 63926

∑xy = 518245

x2 = 1507

y2 = 181193148

= 0.28

Interpretation:

The value of correlation between sale and advertisements of this company is 0.28 which

shows that there exists a weekly positive relation between these two variables.

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Regression Analysis

Regression analysis is basically used to forecast the future. In regression terminology, the

variable being predicted is called the dependent variable. The variable or variables being

used to predict the value of dependent variable called the independent variable. For

example in analyzing the effect of advertising expenditures on sales, a marketing

manager’s desire to predict sales would suggest making sales the dependent variable.

Advertising expenditure would be the independent variable used to help predict sales.

Y = a + bx

= 403.43

a = ∑y – b∑x/n

= 63926 – 403.43(187)/24

= -479.8

Y = -479.8 + 403.43x

Interpretation:

The regression equation of Al Jamil Fans shows that -479.8 is a fixed value which stays

the same even if the value of b is zero. By changing the number of units or the value of x,

we get different values of y.

Y = -479.8 + 403.43(7)

= -479.8 + 2,824.01

= 2,344.21

Innovators

Page25

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

If in x we put 7 the value which we got is 2,344.21. Due to one unit increase in x the

value of y-intercept increase and automatically there is increase in the final value of y

which is the given value of x.

Bar Graph

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

Sales

Series1

2,000

Series2

1,500

1,000

500

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Advertising Expenditure

Innovators

Page26

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Line Graph

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

Sales

Series1

2,000

Series2

1,500

1,000

500

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Advertising Expenditure

Work of

Gull Sales Advertisements

2360 11

Fans 2330 9.5

2225 9

1479 8.5

2145 9.7

2582 12

2010 10

2168 9.8

3585 16

3440 14.5

3670 16.1

3498 15

3465 14.3

3500 14.5

3670 14.9

3260 15.5

4605 13.5

4420 13

4655 14

Innovators

4440 12.5

Page27

4700 13.2

4470 13

4672 14

4297 12

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Coefficients

Intercept -319.4670732

X Variable 1 292.3509321

Average 3,402 13

Mean of Median 3,499 13

Sales: Mean Deviation 838.1875 1.940972222

About Mean

= ∑x/ n Skewness -0.27873390 -0.394445995

1

= 81646/24

Coefficient of 38.56 17.83

Variation

= 3,401.9

Standard Deviation 1013.45186 2.322569635

8

Correlation 0.66999274

4

Interpretation:

Innovators

Page28

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Here, we got the final value for sale that is 3,401.9. Which tells that average sale of the

fans during last 24 months are 3,401.9 and this value is in thousands.

Mean of advertisements:

= ∑x/ n

= 305.5/24

= 12.73

Interpretation:

The average value for advertisement is 12.73 that are also in thousands. It is representing

the whole data. It represents the amount that the companies spent on their advertisements

in 24 months.

Median

Median of Sales:

1,479, 2,010, 2,145, 2,168, 2,225, 2,330, 2,360, 2,582, 3,260, 3,440, 3,465, 3,498, 3,500,

3,585, 3,670, 3,670, 4,297, 4,420, 4,440, 4,470, 4,605, 4,655, 4,672, 4,700,

= (n + 1)th/2

= (24 + 1)th/2

= 12.5th Value

Innovators

Page29

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

= 3,499

Interpretation:

The median in this case is 3,499 which shows the better measure of the sales of the

company and is a better method of calculating the average.

Median of Advertisements:

8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.7, 9.8, 10, 11, 12, 12, 12.5, 13, 13, 13.2, 13.5, 14, 14, 14.3, 14.5, 14.5, 14.9,

15, 15.5, 16, 16.1

=(n + 1)th/2

=(24 + 1)th/2

=12.5th Value

= 13 + .5 (13.2 – 13)

= 13.1

Interpretation:

The median in this case is 13.1 which shows the better measure of the advertisements of

the company and is a better method of calculating the average.

Standard Deviation

=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2

Innovators

Page30

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

= √319046621/24 – (81646/24)2

= √13,293,609.21 – (3,401.92)2

= √13,293,609.21 – 11,573,059.69

= √1,720,549.52

= 1,311.7

Interpretation:

This value basically shows the variation in the data. The fluctuation of data around the

mean is easily measured through this technique Here the spread in the data is 1311.7, if

there is less variation and spread in the data then the data is better. So we can say that the

value of sales can lie between the ranges of 2090.2-4713.6 that is in thousands.

=√∑X2/n – (∑X/n)2

= √4012.83/24 – (305.5/24)2

= √167.20 – (12.73)2

= √167.20 – 162.05

= √5.15

= 2.27

Interpretation:

This value basically shows the variation in the data. The fluctuation of data around the

mean is easily measured through this technique Here the spread in the data is 2.27, if

there is less variation and spread in the data then the data is better. So we can say that the

value of sales can lie between the ranges of 10.46-15 that is in thousands.

Coefficient of Variation

Innovators

Page31

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

= S/ ҳ X 100

= 1311.7/3401.9 X 100

= 38.56

Interpretation:

The coefficient of variation of sales according to the situation is 38.56 which shows the

per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk involved,

and the greater the CV the high risk involved.

= S/ ҳ X 100

= 2.27/12.73 X 100

= 17.83

Interpretation:

shows the per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk

involved, and the greater the CV the high risk involved.

Skewness

Skewness of Sales:

= 3 (mean – median)/S.D

= -0.22

Interpretation:

Innovators

Page32

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

In this case the value of Skewnesss is -0.22 which clearly shows that the data is

negatively skewed and in case of negative Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the

smallest, median is greater and finally the mode is the greatest one.

Skewness of Advertisements:

= 3 (mean – median)/S.D

= 3 (12.73 – 13.1)/2.27

= -0.49

Interpretation:

In this case the value of Skewnesss is -0.49 which clearly shows that the data is

negatively skewed and in case of negative Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the

smallest, median is greater and finally the mode is the greatest one.

M.D (mean) of sales:

= ∑|x-x|/n

= 20116/24

= 838.17

Interpretation:

The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 838.17 which shows the deviation of

the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an

amount of 838.17.

=∑|x-x|/n

Innovators

Page33

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

=45/24

=1.87

Interpretation:

The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 1.87 which shows the deviation of

the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an

amount of 1.87.

Correlation

X Y Xy x2 y2

11 2360

25960 121 5569600

9.5 2330

22,135 90.25 5428900

9 2225

20,025 81 4950625

8.5 1479

12,571.5 72.25 2187441

9.7 2145

20,806.5 94.09 4601025

12 2582

30,984 144 6666724

10 2010

20,100 100 4040100

9.8 2168

21,246.4 96.04 4700224

16 3585

57,360 256 12852225

14.5 3440

49,880 210.25 11833600

16.1 3670

59,087 259.21 13468900

15 3498

52,470 225 12236004

14.3 3465

49,549.5 204.49 12006225

Innovators

Page34

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

14.5 3500

50,750 210.25 12250000

14.9 3670

54,683 222.01 13468900

15.5 3260

50,530 240.25 10627600

13.5 4605

62,167.5 182.25 21206025

13 4420

57,460 169 19536400

14 4655

65,170 196 21669025

12.5 4440

55,500 156.25 19713600

13.2 4700

62,040 174.24 22090000

13 4470

58,110 169 19980900

14 4672

65,408 196 21827584

12 4297

51,564 144 18464209

1075557

305.5 81646 4012.83 319046621

N = 24

∑x = 305.5

∑y = 81646

∑xy = 1075557

X2 = 4012.83

Y2 = 319046621

(81646)2}

= 0.507

Interpretation:

Innovators

Page35

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

The value of correlation between sales and advertisements of this company is 0.507

which shows that there exists a moderately positive relation between the sales and

advertisements of Gull Fans.

Regression Analysis

Y = a + bx

= 292.35

a = ∑y – b∑x/n

= 81646 – 292.35(305.5)/24

= -319.46

Y = -319.46 + 292.35x

Interpretation:

The regression equation of Gull Fans shows that -319.46 is a fixed value which stays the

same even if the value of b is zero. By changing the number of units or the value of x, we

get different values of y.

Y = -319.46 + 292.35(9)

= -319.46 + 2,631.15

= 2,311.69

If in x we put 9 the value which we got is 2,311.69. Due to one unit increase in x the

value of y-intercept increase and automatically there is increase in the final value of y

which is the given value of x.

Innovators

Page36

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Bar Graph

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

Sales

Series1

2500

Series2

2000

1500

1000

500

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Advertising Expenditure

Line Graph

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

Sales

Series1

2500

Series2

2000

Innovators

1500

Page37

1000

500

0

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Finex Fans

1236 4.2

1343 4.3

1324 4.6

1353 4.8

1382 5

1378 5.1

1379 5.2

1406 5.5

1784 11

1915 11.3

1921 11.5

1956 11.5

1927 12

1910 12.1

1994 12.2

1898 12.8

2869 14

2986 14.3

2925 14.5

3021 14.7

2951 14.8

2978 15

3009 15.2

3015 15.5

Sale Advertisement

Mean 2,078 10

Median 1,918 12

S.D 687.6110503 4.272949546

Skewness 0.37217925 -0.466272

Innovators

Coefficient of 0.32392 0.44263

Page38

Variation

Mean deviation 594.5 3.75

about mean

Co-relation 0.916563558

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Coefficients

Intercept 534.3322469

X Variable 1 147.4951257

Mean

Mean of sales:

= Σx/n

= 49864/24

= 2077.6

Interpretation:

Here, we got the final value for sales that is 2,077.6 which tells that average sale of the

fans during last 24 months are 2,077.6 and this value is in thousands.

Mean of Advertisements:

=Σx/n

=251.1/24

=10.46

Interpretation:

The average value for advertisements is 10.46 that are also in thousands. It is representing

the whole data. It represents the amount that the companies spent on their advertisements

in 24 months.

Innovators

Page39

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Median

Median of sales:

1236,1343,1324,1353,1382,1378,1379,1406,1784,1915,1921,1956,1927,1910,1994,189

8,2869,2925,3021,2951,2978,3009,3015

= (n+1)th/2

= (24+1)th/2

= 12.5th value

= 12th value+0.5(13th-12th)

= 1915+0.5(1921- 1915)

= 1918

Interpretation:

The median in this case is 1918 which shows the better measure of the sales of the

company and is a better method of calculating the average.

Median of Advertisements:

4.2,4.3,4.6,4.8,5,5.1,5.2,5.5,11,11.3,11.5,11.5,12,12.1,12.2,12.8,14,14.3,14.5,14.7,14.8,15

,15.2,15.5

= (n+1)th/n

= (24+1)th/2

= 12.5th value

Innovators

Page40

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

=12th value+0.5(13th-12th)

=11.5+0.5(12- 11.5)

=11.75

Interpretation:

The median in this case is 11.75 which shows the better measure of the advertisements of

the company and is a better method of calculating the average.

Standard Deviation

= √Σx2/n- (Σx/n)2

= √(114458756/24)-(2077.5)2

= √4769114.8-4316006.25

= √453108.5

= 673.13

Interpretation:

This value basically shows the variation in the data. The fluctuation of data around the

mean is easily measured through this technique Here the spread in the data is 673.13, if

Innovators

Page41

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

there is less variation and spread in the data then the data is better. So we can say that the

value of sales can lie between the ranges of 1404.47-2750.73 that is in thousands.

= √Σx2/n- (Σx/n)2

= √(2915.52/24)-(100)

= √121.48-100

= √21.48

= 4.63

Interpretation:

Here the spread in the data is 4.63, if there is less variation and spread in the data then the

data is better. So we can say that the value of advertisements can lie between the ranges

of 5.83-15.09 that is in thousands.

Coefficient of Variation

Coefficient of variation of sales:

= S/x X 100

= 673.13/2078

= 0.32393

Interpretation:

Innovators

Page42

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

The coefficient of variation of sales according to the situation is 0.32393 which shows the

per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk involved,

and the greater the CV the high risk involved.

= S/x X 100

= 4.63/10.46

= 0.44263

Interpretation:

The coefficient of variation of advertisements according to the situation is 0.44263 which

shows the per unit risk associated with a given variable. The smaller the CV the less risk

involved, and the greater the CV the high risk involved.

M.D (mean) of sales:

= Σ|x-x|/n

= 14271/24

= 594.6

Interpretation:

The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 594.6 which shows the deviation of

the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an

amount of 594.6.

Innovators

Page43

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

= Σ|x-x|/n

= 93.7/24

= 3.9

Interpretation:

The value of mean deviation about mean of sales is 594.6 which shows the deviation of

the data from the mean value which shows that the data deviates fro the mean by an

amount of 594.6.

Skewness

Skewness of sales:

= 3(x-median)/S.D

= 3(2077.6 – 1918)/673.13

= 0.711

Interpretation:

In this case the value of Skewnesss is 0.711 which clearly shows that the data is

positively or rightly skewed and in case of positive Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the

largest, median is smaller then the mean and finally the mode is the smallest.

Skewness of Advertisements:

= 3(x-median)/S.D

= 3(10.46 – 11.75)/4.63

Innovators

Page44

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

= -0.83

Interpretation:

In this case the value of Skewnesss is -0.83 which clearly shows that the data is

negatively or left skewed and in case of negative Skewnesss, the mean of the data is the

smallest, median is greater then the mean and finally the mode is the larges

Correlation

X Y Xy x2 y2

Innovators

Page45

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

N = 24

∑x = 251.1

∑y = 49860

∑xy = 583658

X2 = 3047.07

Y2 = 114482380

Innovators

Page46

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

=14007792-12519846/√ (73129.68-63051.21)(2747577120-2486019600)

= 1487946/ √ (10078.47)(261557520)

= 1487946/1623606.9

= 0.916

Interpretation:

The value of correlation between sale and advertisements of this company is 0.916 which

shows that there exists an almost perfectly positive relation between these two variables.

Regression Analysis

Y = a + bx

= 1487946/10078.47

= 147.64

a = ∑y – b∑x/n

= 49860-147.64(251.1)/24

= 12787.6/24

= 532.82

Y = 532.82+147.64x

Interpretation:

The regression equation of Finex Fans shows that 532.82 is a fixed value which stays the

same even if the value of b is zero. By changing the number of units or the value of x, we

get different values of y.

Innovators

Page47

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Y = 532.82 + 147.64(11)

= 532.82 + 1,624.04

= 2,156.86

If in x we put 11 the value which we got is 2156.86. Due to one unit increase in x the

value of y-intercept increase and automatically there is increase in the final value of y

which is the given value of x.

Bar Graph

3500

3000

2500

2000

Sales

Series1

Series2

1500

1000

500

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Advertising Expenditure

Innovators

Page48

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Line Graph

3500

3000

2500

2000

Sales

Series1

Series2

1500

1000

500

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Advertising Expenditure

Innovators

Page49

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Explanation of comparison

By comparing the data of the three companies selected by us, we have got the following

results:

Mean:

The average sale of Al Jamil Fans for the given period of 24 months is 2663.6, whereas

that of Gull Fans and Finex Fans is 3401.9 and 2077.6 respectively. By looking at this

data we have found that the sales of Gull Fans are more as compared to the other two

companies. Similarly, the average advertising expenditures of Al Jamil Fans is 7.8 and

those of other two companies’ are 12.73 and 10.46 respectively. This data again shows

that the advertising expenditures of Gull Fans are again more then the other two

companies. The sales and advertising expenditures of Gull Fans is more because the

company has more investment and production, so it sales more as compared to the other

companies.

Innovators

Page50

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Median:

The median sales of Al Jamil Fans, Gull Fans and Finex Fans are 2847.5, 3499 and 1918.

Again Gull fan has more value as compare to Al Jamil and Finex. Now in the case of

advertisements the median expenditures for Al Jamil fans is 8, for Gull Fan 13.1 and for

Finex 11.75. So the median value of advertising expenditures of Gull fans is more than

other two companies and the reason is again the same because of more production and

investment.

Standard Deviation:

Further by calculating the standard deviation of sales we have got the values of S.D for

these companies as 674.5 for Al Jamil, 1,311.7 for Gull fan and 673.13 for the Finex fans.

By using standard deviation we come to know that how much deviation is there in the

data or in values from there actual values. However for sales the value for Finex is more

reliable because there is less deviation in this value. But this is also clear that the mean of

this company is not more than others. So, for getting the more accurate value further we

calculate the CV.

The standard deviation of advertising expenditures for Al Jamil fans is 1.48, for Gull fans

are 2.27 and for the Finex fan is 4.63. In this scenario Al Jamil fans have less standard

deviation as compared to Gull and Finex. This shows less deviation respectively. But

mean is more for Gull fans from this we didn’t know which is better. For getting the more

accurate value now we calculate the CV.

Coefficient of Variation:

The coefficient of variation of sales of Al Jamil Fans for the 24 months is 25.322,

whereas that of Gull Fans and Finex Fans is 38.56 and 0.323 respectively. By looking at

this data we have found that the per unit risk associated with the companies. According to

these values, Gull Fans is associated with more risk as compared to the other two

companies. The company having less value of CV has got less risk associated so the

Finex Fans Has got less risk and is more reliable among these companies.

Innovators

Page51

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

18.97 and those of other two companies’ are 17.83 and 0.44236 respectively. This data

again shows that the advertising expenditures of Gull Fans are again more then the other

two companies and again Finex Fans is more reliable.

M.D (mean):

The values of mean deviation about mean of sales for the three companies are 593.16,

838.17 and 594.6 and the values for the mean deviation about mean of the advertising

expenditures for these companies are 1.20, 1.87 and 3.9 respectively.

Correlation:

The correlation values of these companies are 0.28 for Al Jamil Fans, 0.502 for Gull Fans

and 0.916 for Finex Fans which shows that the relation between sales and advertisements

of Al Jamil Fans is weakly positive which shows that the sales of this company depend on

the advertisements but not too much. Similarly the value of 0.502 for Gull Fans shows

that the sales and advertisements of this company have got a moderately strong

relationship. And finally the value of 0.916 for Finex Fans shows that the relationship

between its sales and the advertisements is a strongly positive, which means that the sales

of this company directly depend on the advertisements.

Regression:

The regression equations of the three companies are:

Al Jamil Fans y = - 479.8 + 403.43x

Gull Fans y = - 319.46 + 292.35x

Finex Fans y = 532.8 + 147.64x

The regression equations of all these companies are positive.

Innovators

Page52

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Conclusion

After collecting the data from the three fan manufacturing companies and analyzing the

data by applying the statistical tools, we have concluded that the average sales and

advertising expenditure of Gull Fans is more then Al Jamil Fans. The reason is that the

Gull Fans has got a greater market share and has more investment and production as

compared to the other two companies.

Further the correlation between the advertising expenditure and sales is strongly positive

for Finex Fans which means that the sales of this company greatly depend on the

advertising of the company. Gull Fans has got a moderate correlation and Al Jamil Fans

has got a weakly positively positive correlation. So Al Jamil Fans and Finex Fans are a

bit behind Gull fans in case of their sales and advertising expenditures.

Innovators

Page53

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

Recommendations

• As the sales are directly dependent on the advertising expenditure so all these

three companies, especially Al Jamil Fans and Finex Fans have to work hard for

their advertisements which would then increase their sales.

• These companies should try to bring some innovations in order to attract more

customers.

• New designs should also be introduced in their products.

• Display Centers of all these companies are not much attractive, so they should

work to make their showrooms more attractive.

• These companies have got a manual system of data handling which usually

creates problems, so a computerized system should be introduced.

Innovators

Page54

Final Project [PROBABILITY & STATISTICS]

• The management and staff of these companies is not much educated and qualified,

so the staff should focus on their qualification.

Innovators

Page55

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