Economics Statistics Report Stats II 4/25/12

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I hope you can learn something from my report! 2 .Abstract: In this report. I will be using several different data sets obtained from the Office of Management and Budget on the White House website. and several different forecasting methods. I will be examining the debt levels of the United States and using forecast methods to predict future budget surpluses or deficits (most likely deficits).

000 -400.147 -1.011.Budget Surplus/Deficit in Dollars 400.000 -1.000 Value -600.377. This data set gave us these values as its forecast values: 2012 estimate 2013 estimate 2014 estimate 2015 estimate 2016 estimate 2017 estimate -1.200.000 -1.1) This chart was created from forecasting future years off of the budget surpluses and deficits that the United States has ran since 1789.000 -800.000.000 200.400.000 -1. As you can see the moving average gives us a fairly accurate forecast (since there are spots where you can’t even see the actual blue line!) I also inserted a trend line which gives us a definite idea of the downward slope of our country’s budget.237 -756.330 3 .064 -1.000 Data Point Actual Forecast Linear (Forecast) 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103 109 115 (Table 1.542 -645.600.235.800.247 -665.000 -1.000 0 -200.000 -1.

and had a bigger budget deficit.0 % of GDP -10.0 -25.0 0. 2012 estimate 2013 estimate 2014 estimate 2015 estimate 2016 estimate 2017 estimate -8.7% -7.0 Actual -15.0 -20.0% -4. When we consider our budget deficits as a percentage of the GDP.6% -6. The only bad part. because comparatively this one looks a lot better. As we can see by the rise of the forecasted values.0 -30. These are the forecast estimates from the percentage of GDP graph. they do not look as threatening as the previous graph. this estimate has us climbing our way back to a budget surplus and out of debt. we made a lot more money as a country.0 -35.3% 4 .3% -3.2) This shows us a forecast and actual line graph of the US budget as a percentage of GDP.6% -3. This makes me feel a little better after I looked at the previous graph.0 5.0 Forecast Years (Table 1.0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 -5. This is because as the United States grew into the superpower we know them as today.Budget Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP 10. right in the beginning was most likely so bad because we were fighting for our independence from the Motherland.

041 2017 estimate 934.200.505 2016 estimate $886. 5 .153 2015 estimate $829.The third data set I have chosen to use is the history of the amount of money spent by the Social Security Office. Moving Average 1.000 400. a billion dollars in a 15 trillion dollar debt is just a drop in a bucket.140 2014 estimate $747.000 1.000 800. I decided to take a look at the data and find out for myself.000 200.961 What I have found is that the spending by the Social Security Office has increased dramatically and while it is predicted to climb to close to a billion dollars in 2017.1) (In Millions of Dollars) 2012 Estimate $650. That being said. Numerous people claim that Social Security plays a key role in digging our 15 trillion dollar hole that we find ourselves in. This is what I discovered. I think we need to tackle the bigger issues of Medicare and Medicaid and pensions and things of that nature.000 Value 600.269 2013 estimate $677.000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 Data Point Actual Forecast (Table 4.000.

Recap: We have discovered that the United States has found itself in quite the hole. my first two forecasts have the US climbing towards having a budget surplus for the first time since the Clinton administration. While that is a good place to start. and getting the spending of programs like Social Security and Medicare is a good place to start. Travis Clark 6 . Hope this helps. There is much work that needs to be done. we may just be cleaning up the overflow of the spill rather than unplugging the drain stopper. On the bright side.

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