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MUDI 2k8 Natural Gas: Wave 2

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NATURAL GAS
BQV Lab MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY DEBATE INSTITUTE 2008 Updated: 7/28/08

Natural Gas 1NC ................................................................................................................................................................. 2-5


2NC/1NR Uniqueness Wall .................................................................................................................................................... 6
Links: Wind Power................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Links: Perception................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Internal Link Wall: Plan  Flaring ....................................................................................................................................... 9
Flaring Bad: Disad Turns Case........................................................................................................................................... 10
Flaring Bad: Warming ......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Flaring Bad: Acid Rain ........................................................................................................................................................ 12
Natural Gas Good: Economy 2NC ..................................................................................................................................... 13
Natural Gas Good: Chemical Industry 2NC .................................................................................................................. 14-15
Natural Gas Good: AT//Causes Terrorism .................................................................................................................... 16-17

***AFFIRMATIVE ANSWERS***

Non-Unique: Natural Gas Low ............................................................................................................................................ 18


No Link: ................................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Terrorism 2AC ...................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Economy 2AC ...................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Fertilizer 2AC ....................................................................................................................................................................... 22

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Natural Gas 1NC (1/4)


First, natural gas use increasing now—electricity sector is dependent upon it.
NGI ‘8
[Natural Gas Intelligence. ―‖FERC: Gas Crucial to meet Growing Generation Needs‖ 23 June 08. www.intelligencepress.com]
Higher fuel prices, increased capital costs and uncertainty about climate policy are putting upward pressure on electric
power prices at a time when substantial new investment in generation is needed -- and natural gas will be the bridge fuel to
new power generation resources for the near term, according to Charles Whitmore of FERC's Office of Enforcement. "Over the long run, the nation can
meet its increasing need for generation in several ways," Whitmore told commissioners during an energy market update in Washington, DC, on Thursday.
"But for the next few years, the options are more limited, and natural gas will be crucial. The lead times for both nuclear and
coal units mean that they will not supply a significant amount of new capacity for nearly a decade. "Most people expect renewables to
supply an increasing proportion of the nation's power. For the next few years, wind will almost certainly account for a large share of generation investment and will account for a growing
share of overall generation. Wind power has no fuel costs, and so will generally operate when available. However, wind is a variable, weather-dependent resource." Geothermal and solar
power are likely to remain relatively small in the national picture over the next few years, Whitmore said. "Overall,
the most likely outcome is that natural gas
will continue to be the leading fuel for new capacity over the next half decade," he said. "While both natural gas and coal prices
have increased rapidly, natural gas is increasingly important in every region of the country...even in regions where coal has
historically dominated -- most noticeably in SERC [Southeastern Electric Reliability Council] -- natural gas usage has grown substantially since 2000, up 63.6 TWh in 2007,
more than in any other region. Noticeable increases also occurred in FRCC [Florida Reliability Coordinating Council], which has flexibility to burn either gas or oil at many facilities, and
also in the Rockies and Southwest, where demand continues to grow considerably." In what Chairman Joseph T. Kelliher described as "a sobering assessment," Whitmore said the
recent escalation of costs to produce electricity could be the start of a years-long trend. "There is little reason to believe that this summer is unusual," Whitmore said. "Rather, it may be
the beginning of significantly higher power prices that will last for years."

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Natural Gas 1NC (2/4)


AND
Alternative energy decreases natural gas dependence and undercuts prices
Wiser ‘5
[Ryan. Scientist in Electricity Markets group at Lawrence-Berkley. ―Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply
Diversification‖. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, 3/5/05.]
With the recent run-up in natural gas prices, and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices for at least the mid-term future, a growing number of voices are calling for increased
diversification holds the prospect of directly reducing our dependence on a fuel whose costs
diversification of electricity supplies. Such
are highly uncertain, thereby hedging the risk of natural gas price volatility and escalation . In addition, as I will describe in a moment, by
reducing natural gas demand, increased diversification away from gas-fired generation can indirectly suppress natural gas prices. Our
report highlights the impact of increased deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency on natural gas prices and consumer natural gas bills. A growing number of modeling
studies conducted by government, non-profit, and private sector entities are showing that renewable energy and energy efficiency could significantly reduce
natural gas prices and bills. Our report summarizes these recent modeling studies and reviews the reasonableness of their findings in light of economic theory and other
analyses. (Though our report focuses on renewable energy and energy efficiency, other non-natural-gas resources would likely have a similar effect). We find that, by displacing
natural-gas-fired electricity generation, increased levels of renewable energy and energy efficiency will reduce demand for natural
gas and thus put downward pressure on gas prices. These price reductions hold the prospect of providing consumers with significant natural gas bill savings. In
fact, although we did not analyze in detail the electricity price impacts reported in the studies, the studies often show that any predicted increase in the price of electricity caused by
greater use of renewable energy or energy efficiency is largely or completely offset by the predicted natural gas price savings. We conclude that policies
to encourage fuel
diversification within the electricity sector should consider the potentially beneficial cross-sector impact of that diversification
on natural gas prices and bills.

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Natural Gas 1NC (3/4)


AND
Decline in natural gas causes flaring
Gerner et al ‘4
[Franz. Bent Svensson, Sascha Djumena. Energy Expert, Program Director and Senior Energy Expert @ World Bank‘s Oil & Gas Division. ―A Regulatory Framework
and Incentives for Gas Utilization‖ October 2004. rru.worldbank.org]
Where operators have the right to sell associated gas, they will decide in favor of that option rather than flaring or venting
only if they have access to domestic or international energy markets and if energy prices are favorable. Many developing
countries lack both a domestic gas market and the infrastructure (liquefied natural gas facilities, export-oriented pipelines) for selling associated gas in international markets.
Moreover, domestic sales are often hindered by distorted energy pricing, monopolistic behavior by vertically integrated state-owned utilities, and lack of a transparent legal and
regulatory framework allowing third parties to build and own a network for selling gas to industries and power generators. In many developing countries the relatively low financial
returns developers can expect from investing in the construction of a gas net-work have undermined the prospects for developing a gas market. Part of the problem is often
subsidies for competing energy sources (oil, coal, nuclear, hydropower), which lead to low prices for competing fuels. But in many oil-
producing countries the perceived value of associated gas has changed with the rise in international natural gas prices since the early 1970s and as economic and budgetary
pressures have led governments to abolish energy subsidies. Higher gas prices have encouraged many governments and companies to
develop gas infrastructure, eventually providing opportunities to market associated gas domestically or internationally.

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Natural Gas 1NC (4/4)


AND
Impact’s extinction
Osai ‘2
[Jason. Prof of Social Science @ Port Harcourt. ―A Niger Delta Denounces Shell‘s False PR in its Community Outreach‖ www.nigerdeltacongress.com 7 Jan
2002//MUDI—JV]
Talking of the impact of gas flaring on the environment, in 1984/85, I was part of a team of professors and graduate students from the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of
Port Harcourt that undertook a field trip to what is now called the Orashi Region. I guided the team to the gas flare site at Obagi, Obrikom, Ebocha, Ukwugba and Izombe. From
one site to another, we took sample of cassava and other crops; we observed the plantains, palm trees and the general vegetation within a
certain radius of the gas flared racks and we noted that though the cassava stems and leaves looked unaffected, their tubers were rotten. We also observed a
pathetic degeneration from the lush vegetation with giant trees that used to be a rustic meadow; giant racks, spewing roaring flames
into the sky had taken the place of the giant trees. These findings were published in Newswatch. It is, therefore, an insult on the collective intellect of the peoples of the Niger Delta
for Shell to aver that "gas flaring is not detrimental to the immediate environment." Matter-of-factly, the statement is an insult on the collective intellect of humanity, which is
facing imminent extinction as a result of the depletion of the ozone layer - a phenomenon that gas flaring contributes
immensely to. Incidentally, I did my administrative internship in 1977 at the Cleveland Division of Air Pollution Control, Cleveland, Ohio, USA and I think I learned quite a bit
about pollution and its negative impact on the environment - immediate or otherwise.

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2NC/1NR Uniqueness Wall: Natural Gas Demand High (1/1)


( ) Natural gas prices highest in two years
Peters 6/30
[Mark. Econ Analyst, Dow Jones Newswire. ―US Gas: Futures Hit 29 Month High‖ Dow Jones Newswire. Lexis//MUDI—JV]
Natural gas futures hit a new 29-month high as prices climbed Monday, fueled by record oil prices and continued supply concerns. Natural gas for August
delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 16.7 cents, or 1.27%, higher at $13.365 a million British thermal units after
opening floor trade 19.2 cents higher at $13.39/MMBtu. Futures reached $13.448 in combined floor and electronic trading,
the highest price since December 2005. "This week's natural gas trade should generally seek guidance from the petroleum complex unless the temperature forecasts
provide some major shifts," wrote Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, in a note to clients Monday.

( ) Demand High—statistics prove


Greenwire 7/2
[―Oil and Gas: LNG Prices could Soon Catch up with Crude—Energy Ministers‖ 2 July 08. Lexis//MUDI—JV]
Natural gas, which is currently trading at about a 40 percent discount to oil, may reach the record-high prices of crude as demand for the cleaner-burning
fuel increases, the energy ministers from Qatar, Algeria and Iran said. Natural gas in Britain sells for £0.7135 per therm, or the equivalent of $85 per barrel based on energy content.
Brent crude, by comparison, traded at $141 today. Natural gas prices in the United Kingdom rose 38 percent this year, lagging behind the 50 percent advance in oil. But natural gas
use increased this year by 3.1 percent. Oil increased only 1.1 percent, according to BP PLC data.

( ) Demand increasing—power plants and legislation


Johnson ‘8
[Keith. Energy Reporter for the Wall Street Journal. ―Natural Gas Woes‖ The Wall Street Journal. 11 April 2008]
So New York Gov. David Patterson struck down the idea of a new natural-gas terminal in Long Island sound, trusting in conservation and energy efficiency to make up the energy
shortfall for the region. Almost 7,000 miles away, China and Qatar inked what could be at least a $60 billion deal for liquefied natural gas exports over the next quarter-century.
What‘s the connection? The U.S. better take a number if it wants sufficient supplies of natural gas in the future. The
U.S. is moving inexorably toward using more
natural gas to fire its power plants—thanks to an increasingly tough financing climate for coal, imminent climate legislation
that will put a pricetag on dirtier fuel sources, trouble jump-starting the nuclear industry, and difficulties making renewable energy more
than a marginal contributor to the electricity mix. Natural gas is cleaner than coal, easing some environmental concerns, and
reliable, making it suitable for baseload power.

( ) Natural gas demand up—predictive evidence


PGE ‘8
[Pacific Gas and Electric Company. ―Rising Natural Gas Prices and Lower Hydroelectric Power Supplies Expected to Increase Electricity Costs‖ PGE News Bulletin,
10 June 2008//MUDI—JV]
Pacific Gas and Electric Company today alerted the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) that the skyrocketing price of natural gas across
the nation and lower than expected hydroelectric power are resulting in higher costs for the electricity PG&E purchases on behalf of its customers. Starting in
October 2008, these factors are expected to increase electricity costs to PG&E customers by approximately $482 million,
resulting in a roughly 4.5 percent rate increase, to be collected over a 15 month period through December 2009. In 2009, high demand for natural
gas – one of the cleanest fossil fuels available to generate electricity – is expected to continue upward pressures on the
price of natural gas and in turn lead to further increases in customer electricity rates. As a result, electricity costs in 2009 are
anticipated to increase by approximately $340 million. This will result in a less than 2 percent increase over the rates projected to be in effect this October. For the
typical PG&E residential customer that uses 550 kilowatt hours (kWh) per month, October bill increases will be roughly 95 cents from $72.13 to $73.08. In January, the bill for a typical
residential customer would increase by about 35 cents more. Customers with higher monthly usage will see even greater increases to their monthly bill as a result of California‘s tiered
rate structure. ―The
combination of skyrocketing natural gas prices, increased electricity demand and lower supplies of hydroelectric power are
having a significant impact on the cost of electricity,‖ said Helen Burt, PG&E‘s senior vice president and chief customer officer. ―To help protect customers from
these price increases, PG&E has taken concrete actions, such as diversifying our energy portfolio and partnering with our customers on energy efficiency programs.‖ Under PG&E‘s rate
structure, the company does not earn a profit on energy it purchases for customers; the energy is sold to customers at the same price at which PG&E buys it from wholesale sellers. In
2008, natural gas prices have increased by 30 percent and are forecasted to remain high in 2009. Soaring natural gas
prices are caused by a tight supply-demand balance in the national market, lower imports of liquefied natural gas, and the
rising cost of crude oil. Because much of the nation‘s electric supply is generated by plants using natural gas, increased gas
costs are also affecting electric prices. PG&E customers‘ electricity rates have been affected by lower supplies of hydroelectric power and increased demand. In the
last year, statewide rainfall has been approximately 70 percent of normal, significantly reducing hydroelectric production.

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Links: Wind (1/1)


( ) Wind drives down natural gas prices—overwhelming consensus
Wiser ‘5
[Ryan. Scientist in Electricity Markets group at Lawrence-Berkley. ―Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices Through Electricity Supply
Diversification‖. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, 3/5/05.]
st
Elevated natural gas prices have emerged as a key energy-policy challenge for at least the early part of the 21 century. While our
nation will continue to rely on natural gas, most agree that both supply-side and demand-side actions will likely be necessary to moderate prices. Focusing on just the
demand side, our study has found that increased diversification of energy supplies should help to alleviate the threat of high
natural gas prices over the short and long term, thereby reducing consumer natural gas bills. The thirteen studies and twenty specific
modeling analyses reviewed in our report consistently show that increased use of renewable energy and energy efficiency
can begin to reduce natural gas prices. Our report is the first to demonstrate that these results are broadly consistent with economic theory, results from other national
energy models, and limited empirical evidence.

( ) Wind power ends natural gas consumption—6 warrants


Berry ‘5
[David. Director: Western Research Advocates. ―Renewable Energy as a Natural Gas Price Hedge: the Case for Wind‖ Energy Policy, Vol 33. Summer 2005.
Lexis//MUDI—JV]
Electric utilities use natural gas to fuel many of their power plants, especially those plants which provide electricity at peak and intermediate hours. Natural
gas prices are highly volatile and have shown a general upward trend. Wind energy can provide a cost-effective hedge
against natural gas price volatility or price increases. This conclusion is based on analysis of the costs of marginal
conventional generation given the historical probability distribution of natural gas prices, the cost of wind energy, wind
integration costs, transmission costs for wind energy, the capacity value of wind, and environmental benefits of wind energy
for a hypothetical utility in the Southwestern United States. The efficacy of using wind energy as a hedge at a particular utility will depend on site specific conditions.

( ) Wind derails natural gas—conservation


Nebraska Energy Quarterly ‘3
[October 2003. www.neo.ne.gov]
In areas of the country where wind farms generate electricity, they are directly helping to conserve natural gas supplies. And
unlike natural gas prices, which are subject to market fluctuations, wind energy costs are predictable over time. Once a plant is
built, the cost of producing electricity is stable and the fuel source is free. This means that wind energy works well in tandem with natural gas production. For example, smart
investors know that they should diversify their investment portfolios and balance potentially high-risk stocks with more-
conservative bonds and mutual funds. Utilities devise a similar strategy to mitigate natural gas price fluctuations and risks —
they plan ways to use other energy sources when natural gas prices soar. The fixed cost of wind energy helps mitigate the
rapidly fluctuating cost of natural gas in a utility's ―portfolio.‖

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Links: Perception (1/1)


( ) The effects of the plan don’t matter—the perception of a trend toward alternative energy will derail the industry
Berman ‘6
[Economics Expert with The Houston Geological Society. ―The Doors of Perception: Making Sense of Natural Gas Prices‖ Houston Geological Society Bulletin, 8
November 2006//MUDI—JV]
In the case of natural gas, sentiment
guides what suppliers believe that gas is worth and are willing to pay today, and a few
months into the future. The fact that the is awash in natural gas supply, at least for the near-future of several years, is less important
than the perception that sufficient gas is immediately available to be sent on its way to end users.

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Internal Links: Plan  Flaring (1/1)


( ) North American market is key to prevent flaring
Baca ‘2
[Lucas. VP of Health, Safety, and Environment for BP. ―Capitol Hill Hearing Testimony Committee. ―Senate Energy and Natural Resources Heading‖ 18 Sept 2002,
http://energy.senate.gov/hearings/testimony.cfm?id=412&wit_id=1109
One potential solution to global gas flaring exists in the form of the North American natural gas market where demand is
expected to grow substantially in the coming decade (to @30 TCF/YR). It is generally agreed that traditional supply sources in North
America will be insufficient and therefore, other supply sources will have to be tapped in order to meet growing demand.
Supply sources include Canadian and Alaskan natural gas and LNG from Trinidad and West Africa. We believe that these LNG supply sources
can compete in the US market and will play a role in meeting demand. However, post-September 11 safety and security issues have complicated the LNG debate and have forced
governments to re- examine policies related to sighting and expansion of LNG facilities. However,
substantial reductions in flaring during the next 20 years may
be possible if current national and corporate policies and strategies designed to reduce flaring continue. These reductions can be
achieved by greater gas utilization in international and domestic markets, site use and re-injection. The key challenge is
developing markets for this resource. From BP‘s perspective, the single most important step that can be taken to address gas
flaring on an international scale is the further development of international and domestic natural gas markets. If these markets
develop, incentives will be in place to encourage local governments to monetize their natural gas resources, rather than
allowing them to be vented. Further development of international gas markets will create positive social and economic benefits including lower GHG emission, poverty
reduction and cost-effective, reliable, clean fuels through greater energy supply diversity.

( ) High natural gas prices prevent flares—makes venting unprofitable


Lewis ‘7
[Barbara-Natural Gas Expert with the New Scientist Environment. ―Rising Prices Could End Wasteful Gas Flaring‖
http://www.reuters.com/article/sphereNews/idUSL1168804120070711?sp=true&view=sphere Dec 2007//MUDI—JV]
Dwindling energy supplies and rising gas prices could soon make gas flaring unprofitable, say researchers, saving billions of dollars' worth of
natural gas from going up in smoke. Historically, producers have simply burned gas found alongside oil if it was too difficult and costly to
recover and sell it. In recent years, concerns about global warming have added to pressure to end the practice. But analysts say harsh economic reality is the
factor that really concentrates minds. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that 168 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas were
flared in 2006 – equivalent to 27% of the US natural gas consumption (read NOAA's gas flaring report). NOAA says the flared gas could have fetched $69 billion if sold. "Until you
start to put real value into gas prices, you might as well flare. But now gas prices are getting to the point where it's worth
collecting," says Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in the UK.

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Flaring Bad: General Disad Turns Case (1/1)


( ) Disad turns case—flaring torpedoes all ecological externalities
Yakubu ‘8
[Environmental Reporter—All Africa. ―Gas Flaring in the Niger Delta and its Health Hazards. All Africa, 3 March 08. Lexis//MUDI—JV]
Gas flaring causes acid rains in the Niger Delta. The primary cause of acid rain are the emissions of sulphur dioxide(S02) and Nitrogen oxides(N02),
which combine with atmospheric moisture to form zz with the gas flaring; debilitating the farmers and their families who depend on the
land for their livelihood. Drinking water is also frequently contaminated and sheen of oil is usually visible in many localized
bodies of water and also in collected rain water. Agriculture is affected in the Niger Delta region. Delta residents have for long complained
about how their corrugated roofs have been corroded by the composition of the rain that falls as a result of flaring. According to
Nnimo Bassey, an environmental activist, one glaring evidence yet of the devastation of acid rain in areas where flaring is practiced, is that corrugated metal roofing
sheets deteriorate and corrode at a very fast rate. He says that the roofing sheets usually last for 5 years as against the established 20 year life span. Gas
flaring also contributes to ozone depletion and this leads to the exacerbation of the problem of global warming. CFCs or
chlorofluorocarbons are the primary cause of ozone depletion. When industrial processes release these chemicals, they rise into the atmosphere and degrade the ozone layer. Gas
flaring, not only in the Niger Delta, but also in Nigeria is highly inefficient and releases large amount of methane which has very high global
warming potential. Other green house gasses include carbon dioxide etc.

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Flaring Bad: Warming (1/1)


( ) Flaring causes warming—CO2
Elvidge et al 7
[Chris, Kimberly Baugh, Ben Tuttle, Ara Howard. Members of the Howard Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences @ University of
Colorado-Boulder. ―A Twelve Year Record of National and Global Gas Flaring Volumes Estimated Using Satellite Data‖ 30 May 2007.
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/interest/DMSP_flares_20070530_b.pdf]
Gas flaring is a widely used practice for the disposal of natural gas in petroleum producing areas where there is no
infrastructure to make use of the gas. The companion procedure called venting is the release of gas without combustion. Venting is not only
dangerous, but releases gases known to absorb thermal radiation much better that carbon dioxide, contributing to the
greenhouse affect. Gas flaring is widely recognized as a waste of energy and an added load of carbon emissions to the
atmosphere. Because the flaring combustion is incomplete, substantial amounts of soot and carbon monoxide are produced, contributing
to air pollution problems. Information on the spatial and temporal distribution of gas flaring have been available previously due the sparse and unverifiable nature of the
reporting done by countries and petroleum companies..

( ) Disad turns case—flaring most important internal link to the Greenhouse Effect.
GAO ‘4
[―Natural Gas Flaring and Venting: Opportunities to Improve Data and Reduce Emissions‖ 2004 www.gao.gov/new.items/04809.pdf// ]
Although gas is sometimes flared or vented because it has too little economic value to justify its capture, flaring
or venting this gas into the atmosphere
has an environmental cost. In general, flaring emits carbon dioxide, while venting releases methane. 3 These and other chemical
compounds found in the earth‘s atmosphere create a greenhouse effect. Under normal conditions, when sunlight strikes the earth‘s surface, some of it is reflected
back towards space as infrared radiation or heat. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane impede this reflection by
trapping heat in the atmosphere. Methane is 23 times more potent than carbon dioxide in its ability to warm the
atmosphere. While these gases occur naturally on earth and are emitted into the atmosphere, the expanded industrialization of the world over the last 150 years has
increased the amount of emissions from human activity (known as anthropogenic emissions) beyond the level that the earth‘s natural processes can handle. Scientists generally
agree that these increased greenhouse gases are contributing to global warming, which can have detrimental effects on the
climate. In general, the environmental costs of flaring and venting are not borne by the responsible parties because there are no restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.
However, nations have proposed international agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions, including those released during flaring and venting.

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Flaring Bad: Acid Rain (1/1)


( ) Disad turns case—flaring causes acid rain
Environment Canada ‘5
[―Flaring in the Petroleum Industry‖. 2005 http://www.ec.gc.ca/cleanair-airpur/caol/OGEB/oilgas/flaring/flaring_general2_e.htm// ]
Acid deposition is the combination of nitrogen, sulphur oxides (released from flaring), and water in the atmosphere to form acids that are deposited either directly or
with precipitation. The acids can fall near flaring activities or be carried for hundreds or thousands kilometers before being
deposited. Acid deposition can lead to lakes and streams becoming acidified and it is harmful to the environment .

( ) Soil degradation and roofing corrosion prove flaring causes acid rain.
IRIN ‘5
[UN Integrated Regional Information Network. ―Gas Flaring Wrecking Delta Communities‖ 4 April 2005. Lexis//MUDI—JV]
Civil society groups in the Niger Delta region have warned that the
government is destroying communities' health and Nigeria's environment by
flouting laws against gas flaring, a technique used in oil production. For decades gas flaring has been used to separate crude oil from the associated gases that are
extracted with it, but Nigeria flares more gas today than any nation in the world after Russia, even though it is only the world's eighth largest oil producer. In most other countries the
excess gas has been harnessed to generate power, but about 50 communities in the oil producing Niger Delta region have had to put up with gas flares burning continuously for decades.
Bari-ara Kpalap from the Nigerian non-governmental organisation (NGO) Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People, which is based in the Delta and represents a large ethnic group
oil and gas flaring had caused devastating pollution for the region's farming communities. "The pollution is making
there, said
agricultural harvests very poor," he told IRIN. "That in turn has affected the well-being of these communities. Many families are
not able to provide for themselves. Communities say gas flares contribute to acid rain. "Even the roofs of the homes are corroded,"
Isaac Osuoka of the NGO Social Action in the Delta's capital, Port Harcourt, told IRIN. "Iron sheeting is the most common form of roofing in rural areas,
and in a year or two, it is completely destroyed because of corrosion."

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Natural Gas Good: Economy 2NC (1/1)


( ) Natural gas key to the economy—multiple reasons
Fee ‘3
[Managing Director of FC Fee International (Energy Management Firm). ―Russia and Iranian Gas and Future US Energy Security.‖ The Middle East Economic
Survey, Vol XLVI, No 37. 9-15-03//MUDI—JV]
Natural gas will be essential to the future energy supply, economic strength, and continued projection of global power of the
US In the next 50 years, the US economy will not be able to exist without it. It is the cleaner burning of the hydrocarbon
family of fuels and has, even today, become critically important to the US energy supply-demand equation recently
emphasized by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, Alan Greenspan, the monetary keeper of the US economy. Currently, North
American producing gasfields are mature and experiencing serious rates of decline. Drilling has been unable to keep up with growing demand,
and consequently gas prices are rising rapidly as reserves are depleted. At current proven reserves levels, the US will exhaust all of its natural gas reserves in 9.6 years, Canada in 9.3.
Yet, as a cleaner burning fuel than petroleum, natural gas will be in increasing demand as US power plants convert from coal or oil to gas-fired in an environmental effort to help reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases. Given depleting domestic and Canadian gas reserves,
much of the US‘s future energy requirement will be gas imported
from abroad. A strategic priority for US energy security planning must be to access reliable, plentiful, diversified,
competitively-priced, external natural gas reserves. Pipeline gas is generally not a viable option for gas imports to the US
given the distances involved from other continents. Hence, US foreign gas imports will primarily take the form of LNG. Given
the nature of the international gas supply market, and the medium and long-term planning required by both consuming and exporting governments, and
private commercial firms, the supply-demand markets, timing, pricing, budgetary and cost factors, infrastructure-building must all be
addressed now if the US is to carefully consider its options to meet obvious and unarguable future needs for natural gas.

( ) Economic decline causes war


Yulu ‘3
[Economic Analyst for the People‘s Daily (China). ―Economic Recession: The Blasting Fuse of War‖. People‘s Daily, 7/25/3 Lexis//MUDI—BB]
If one examines the wars broken out ever since more than a century ago , one will discover an interesting phenomenon, that is, each fairly big
economic recession (or economic crisis) was inevitably followed by the eruption of a war. This is true with World I, World War II, the Gulf War, as well as the Iraq
war. It can be said that economic downturn is the blasting fuse of modern war.

( ) Economic warfare causes extinction


Nyquist ‘7
[JR. Econ Expert, Often Contributes to NYT. ―The Path of Dissolution‖ Financial Sense, July 2007. Lexis//MUDI—JV]
The world is made up of armed nation states, and some of those states have nuclear and biological weapons that could easily kill several
hundred million people. We don‘t like to think that these weapons would ever be used, but it‘s safe to say they‘ll be used all the same. Weapons are always
used. This is not because of some dark conspiracy to use them. They are used because they exist to be used, and the occasion for using them – though unwelcome by most of us –
nonetheless recurs through time. People always seem ready to hate somebody, to blame somebody, and to unleash destruction on somebody. The reasons for hatred may be ethnic,
religious or ideological. We can see these reasons falling from the lips of al Qaeda spokesmen, from Latin American dictators and Chinese generals. Everyone
knows that
war plans were drawn up in Washington and Moscow long ago. But war did not come when the two sides were carefully
watching one another; mainly on account of the nuclear ―balance of terror.‖ Such balances , however, do not last forever. In fact, a
major economic disruption might overthrow the ―balance of terror.‖

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Natural Gas Good: Chem Industry 2NC (1/2)


1 – Natural gas is key to the chemical industry and the production of a laundry list of valuable inputs into the
economy and energy
Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
The current price of natural gas is the chemical industry's number one economic issue. Natural gas is the lifeblood of the
chemistry business in the U.S. Not only do we use natural gas as a fuel in our manufacturing processes, much like other industries, but we also
use it as an ingredient, or feedstock, for many of the products we make .
Natural gas and natural gas liquids contain hydrocarbon molecules that are split apart during processing and then
recombined into useful chemical products. These products include life-saving medicines, health improvement products,
technology-enhanced agricultural products, more protective packaging materials, synthetic fibers and permanent press-
clothing, longer-lasting paints, stronger adhesives, faster microprocessors, more durable and safer tires, lightweight
automobile parts, and stronger composite materials for aircraft and spacecraft. The business of chemistry also makes many of the
products that help save energy throughout the entire economy, including insulation, house wraps, lubricants, and high-
strength light-weight materials, enabling American industries and consumers to be more energy efficient. The business of
chemistry is the only part of the economy that adds value to these hydrocarbon molecules rather than combusting them for
energy.

2 – Chemical industry key to the economy


Gupta 2003 – Chairman and CEO, Rohm and Haas (Global Chemical Manufacturer)
Testimony before House Committee on House Resources, 3-19, FDCH
The $460 billion business of chemistry is a key element of the nation's economy, providing the building block materials that
the rest of the U.S. economy relies upon. It is the country's largest exporter, accounting for ten cents out of every dollar in U.S. exports.
Chemistry companies invest more in research and development than any other business sector. Safety and security have always been
primary concerns of ACC members, and they have intensified their efforts, working closely with government agencies to improve security and to defend against any threat to the nation's
critical infrastructure. SUMMARY OF TESTIMONY A hearing on enhancing the nation's energy security could not come at a better time. The nation is facing an energy crisis caused by
runaway prices for natural gas. Unless Congress acts to increase domestic natural gas supplies our economy will continue to struggle and we will fall short of our goals for a cleaner
environment. A crisis of this magnitude poses a grave threat to America's economic and national security. Current energy prices are making it impossible for the US chemical industry,
and other critical industries, to compete in global markets. Because the business of chemistry produces the building block materials that the rest of our modern economy relies upon, we
are somewhat of a "canary in the coalmine." As we go, so goes the rest of the nation.
3 – The impact is extinction and turns the case
Chemical and Engineering News 1999 Vol. 77, No. 49. pp. Pp.46-47. http://pubs.acs.org/sci-bin/bottomframe.sci?hotartcl/cenear/991206/7749spintro2
The pace of change in today's world is truly incomprehensible. Science is advancing on all fronts, particularly chemistry and biology working together as
they never have before to understand life in general and human beings in particular at a breathtaking pace. Technology ranging from computers and the
Internet to medical devices to genetic engineering to nanotechnology is transforming our world and our existence in it. It is,
in fact, a fool's mission to predict where science and technology will take us in the coming decade, let alone the coming
century. We can say with finality only this: We don't know. We do know, however, that we face enormous challenges, we 6 billion humans
who now inhabit Earth. In its 1998 revision of world population estimates and projections, the United Nations anticipates a world population in 2050 of 7.3 billion to 10.7 billion,
with a "medium-fertility projection," considered the most likely, indicating a world population of 8.9 billion people in 2050. According to the UN, fertility now stands at 2.7 births per woman,
down from 5 births per woman in the early 1950s. And fertility rates are declining in all regions of the world. That's good news. But people are living a lot longer. That is
certainly good news for the individuals who are living longer, but it also poses challenges for health care and social services the world over. The 1998
UN report estimates for the first time the number of octogenarians, nonagenarians, and centenarians living today and projected for 2050. The numbers are startling. In 1998, 66
million people were aged 80 or older, about one of every 100 persons. That number is expected to increase sixfold by 2050
to reach 370 million people, or one in every 24 persons. By 2050, more than 2.2 million people will be 100 years old or older! Here is the fundamental
challenge we face: The world's growing and aging population must be fed and clothed and housed and transported in ways that do
not perpetuate the environmental devastation wrought by the first waves of industrialization of the 19th and 20th centuries.
As we increase our output of goods and services, as we increase our consumption of energy, as we meet the imperative of
raising the standard of living for the poorest among us, we must learn to carry out our economic activities sustainably. There
are optimists out there, C&EN readers among them, who believe that the history of civilization is a long string of technological triumphs of humans over the limits of nature. In this view,
the idea of a "carrying capacity" for Earth—a limit to the number of humans Earth's resources can support—is a fiction because technological advances will continuously obviate
previously perceived limits. This view has historical merit. Dire predictions made in the 1960s about the exhaustion of resources ranging from petroleum to chromium to fresh water by the
end of the 1980s or 1990s have proven utterly wrong. While I do not count myself as one of the technological pessimists who see technology as a mixed blessing at best and an
unmitigated evil at worst, I do not count myself among the technological optimists either. There are environmental challenges of transcendent complexity that I fear may overcome us and
our Earth before technological progress can come to our rescue. Global climate change, the accelerating destruction of terrestrial and oceanic habitats, the catastrophic loss of species
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(Chemical and Engineering News Continues…nothing cut)
across the plant and animal kingdoms—these are problems that are not obviously amenable to straightforward technological solutions. But I know this, too: Science and technology have
brought us to where we are, and only science and technology, coupled with innovative social and economic thinking, can take us to where we need to be in the coming millennium.
Chemists, chemistry, and the chemical industry—what we at C&EN call the chemical enterprise—will play central roles in addressing these challenges.
The first section of this Special Report is a series called "Millennial Musings" in which a wide variety of representatives from the chemical enterprise share their thoughts about the future
of our science and industry. The five essays that follow explore the contributions the chemical enterprise is making right now to ensure that we will successfully meet the challenges of the
21st century. The essays do not attempt to predict the future. Taken as a whole, they do not pretend to be a comprehensive examination of the efforts of our science and our industry to
tackle the challenges I've outlined above. Rather, they paint, in broad brush strokes, a portrait of scientists, engineers, and business managers struggling to make a vital contribution to
humanity's future. The first essay, by Senior Editor Marc S. Reisch, is a case study of the chemical industry's ongoing transformation to sustainable production. Although it is not well
known to the general public, the chemical industry is at the forefront of corporate efforts to reduce waste from production streams to zero. Industry giants DuPont and Dow Chemical are
taking major strides worldwide to manufacture chemicals while minimizing the environmental "footprint" of their facilities. This is an ethic that starts at the top of corporate structure.
Indeed, Reisch quotes Dow President and Chief Executive Officer William S. Stavropolous: "We must integrate elements that historically have been seen as at odds with one another: the
triple bottom line of sustainability—economic and social and environmental needs." DuPont Chairman and CEO Charles (Chad) O. Holliday envisions a future in which "biological
processes use renewable resources as feedstocks, use solar energy to drive growth, absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, use low-temperature and low-pressure processes, and
produce waste that is less toxic." But sustainability is more than just a philosophy at these two chemical companies. Reisch describes ongoing Dow and DuPont initiatives that are making
sustainability a reality at Dow facilities in Michigan and Germany and at DuPont's massive plant site near Richmond, Va. Another manifestation of the chemical industry's evolution is its
embrace of life sciences. Genetic engineering is a revolutionary technology. In the 1970s, research advances fundamentally shifted our perception of DNA. While it had always been clear
that deoxyribonucleic acid was a chemical, it was not a chemical that could be manipulated like other chemicals—clipped precisely, altered, stitched back together again into a functioning
molecule. Recombinant DNA techniques began the transformation of DNA into just such a chemical, and the reverberations of that change are likely to be felt well into the next century.
Genetic engineering has entered the fabric of modern science and technology. It is one of the basic tools chemists and
biologists use to understand life at the molecular level. It provides new avenues to pharmaceuticals and new approaches to
treat disease. It expands enormously agronomists' ability to introduce traits into crops, a capability seized on by numerous
chemical companies. There is no doubt that this powerful new tool will play a major role in feeding the world's population in the coming
century, but its adoption has hit some bumps in the road. In the second essay, Editor-at-Large Michael Heylin examines how the promise of agricultural biotechnology has gotten tangled
up in real public fear of genetic manipulation and corporate control over food. The third essay, by Senior Editor Mairin B. Brennan, looks at chemists embarking on what is perhaps the
greatest intellectual quest in the history of science—humans' attempt to understand the detailed chemistry of the human brain, and with it, human consciousness. While this quest is, at
one level, basic research at its most pure, it also has enormous practical significance. Brennan focuses on one such practical aspect: the effort to understand neurodegenerative diseases
like Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease that predominantly plague older humans and are likely to become increasingly difficult public health problems among an aging
population. Science and technology are always two-edged swords. They bestow the power to create and the power to destroy. In addition to its enormous potential for health and
agriculture, genetic engineering conceivably could be used to create horrific biological warfare agents. In the fourth essay of this Millennium Special Report, Senior Correspondent Lois R.
Ember examines the challenge of developing methods to counter the threat of such biological weapons. "Science and technology will eventually produce sensors able to detect the
presence or release of biological agents, or devices that aid in forecasting, remediating, and ameliorating bioattacks," Ember writes. Finally, Contributing Editor Wil Lepkowski discusses
the most mundane, the most marvelous, and the most essential molecule on Earth, H2O. Providing clean water to Earth's population is already difficult—and tragically, not always
accomplished. Lepkowski looks in depth at the situation in Bangladesh—where a well-meaning UN program to deliver clean water from wells has poisoned millions with arsenic. Chemists
are working to develop better ways to detect arsenic in drinking water at meaningful concentrations and ways to remove it that will work in a poor, developing country. And he explores the
evolving water management philosophy, and the science that underpins it, that will be needed to provide adequate water for all its vital uses. In the past two centuries, our science has
transformed the world. Chemistry is a wondrous tool that has allowed us to understand the structure of matter and gives us the ability to manipulate that structure to suit our own
purposes. It allows us to dissect the molecules of life to see what makes them, and us, tick. It is providing a glimpse into workings of what may be the most complex structure in the
universe, the human brain, and with it hints about what constitutes consciousness. In the coming decades, we will use chemistry to delve ever deeper into
these mysteries and provide for humanity's basic and not-so-basic needs.

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( ) No impact—terrorists won’t attack tankers because there’s no chance of mass casualties
Melhem, Kalelkar and Saraf ‘6
[PhD‘s in Energy-based Engineering. ―Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths‖ 2006. www.iomosaic.com/docs/whitepapers/Managing_LNG_Risks.pdf]
Let us examine the issue of possible LNG explosion when the liquid and vapor are not confined. First, LNG has to be vaporized and then
mixed in the right proportions with air in order to obtain a composition that can burn. Furthermore, methane is relatively insensitive to initiation as compared to heavier hydrocarbons.
Available data and good understanding of explosion dynamics indicate that it is not possible to detonate LNG vapors, even with the use of an explosive charge (that is large enough) on a
storage tank, unless the LNG vapors contain high fractions of ethane and propane (more than 20%). Explosion test data on methane/ethane mixtures in the vapor phase support these
statements1. The
likelihood of this scenario is equivalent to each of the authors of this paper winning the power ball or
megabucks lottery several times, simultaneously. The most likely outcome of a terrorist attack will be a large pool fire and
possibly a low order deflagration/flash fire of finely divided LNG liquid droplets aerosolized by the blast force of the explosive charge. LNG pool fire
hazards are localized and as a result thermal radiation effects (2nd degree burns) are typically confined to within one or two pool
diameters from the edge of the flame. This significantly limits the extent of impact. As a result, LNG tankers and bulk
storage tanks are not attractive targets for terrorists who seek to achieve mass casualties.
( ) Impact is minimal—infrastructure, isolation, and coast guard protection
Melhem, Kalelkar and Saraf ‘6
[PhD‘s in Energy-based Engineering. ―Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths‖ 2006. www.iomosaic.com/docs/whitepapers/Managing_LNG_Risks.pdf]
LNG tankers and land based facilities are vulnerable to terrorism; An LNG potential disaster (explosion of an LNG tanker) is greater today because of the
threat of terrorism. The gigantic quantity of energy stored in huge cryogenic tanks is what makes LNG a desirable terrorist target. Tankers may be physically attacked in a variety of ways
to destroy their cargo or used as weapons against coastal targets. As discussed earlier, LNG
ships are not attractive ―mass casualties‖ terrorist targets.
Any explosive charge used on an LNG ship will cause immediate ignition of the LNG vapors. The subsequent LNG pool fire
will have a potentially significant impact on the immediate release area only. This will significantly limit the extent of impact.
There are also new Coast Guard security regulations (33 CFR Part 105) for LNG tanker movements and terminals. In addition, IMO
and the USCG have established stringent security requirements for vessels in international and United States waters.
( ) LNG Safeguards solve your offense
O’Malley ‘8
[Mark. US Coast Guard coordinator for Ports. ―Safety and Security of LNG‖ 7 May 07. Lexis]
In addition to undergoing a much more rigorous and frequent examination of key operating and safety systems, LNG
vessels are subject to additional measures of security when compared to crude oil tankers, as an example. Many of the special safety and
security precautions the Coast Guard has long established for LNG vessels derived from our analysis of "conventional"
navigation safety risks such as groundings, collisions, propulsion or steering system failures. These precautions pre-dated the September 11, 2001 tragedy, and include such
measures as special vessel traffic control measures that are implemented when an LNG vessel is transiting the port or its approaches, safety zones around the vessel to prevent other
vessels from approaching nearby, escorts by patrol craft and, as local conditions warrant, coordination with other Federal, state and local transportation, law enforcement and/or
emergency management agencies to reduce the risks to, or minimize the interference from other port area infrastructure or activities. These activities are conducted under the authority
of existing port safety and security statutes, such as the Magnuson Act (50 U.S.C. 191 et. seq.) and the Ports and Waterways Safety Act, as amended. Since September 11, 2001,
additional security measures have been implemented, including the requirement that all vessels calling in the U.S. must
provide the Coast Guard with a 96-hour advance notice of arrival (increased from 24 hours advance notice pre- 9/11). This notice includes information on
the vessel's last ports of call, crew identities and cargo information. In addition, the Coast Guard now regularly boards LNG vessels at- sea, where Coast Guard personnel conduct special
"security sweeps" of the vessel and ensure it is under the control of proper authorities during its port transit. In order to protect the vessel from external attack, LNG vessels are escorted
through key port areas. These armed escorts afford protection to the nearby population centers by reducing the probability of a successful attack against an LNG vessel. These actions
are in addition to the safety and security oriented boardings previously described. Of course, one of the most important post-9/11 maritime security improvements has been the passage
of the Maritime Transportation Security Act of 2002 (MTSA). Under the authority of MTSA, the Coast Guard developed a comprehensive new body of security measures applicable to
vessels, marine facilities and maritime personnel. Our domestic maritime security regime is closely aligned with the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code. The ISPS
Code, a mandatory requirement of the SOLAS Convention, was adopted at the IMO in December 2002 and came into effect on July 1st 2004. Under the ISPS Code, vessels in
international service, including LNG vessels, must have an International Ship Security Certificate (ISSC). To be issued an ISSC by its flag state, the vessel must develop and implement a
threat-scalable security plan that, among other things, establishes access control measures, security measures for cargo handling and delivery of ships stores, surveillance and
monitoring, security communications, security incident procedures, and training and drill requirements. The plan must also identify a Ship Security Officer who is responsible for ensuring
compliance with the ship's security plan. The Coast Guard rigorously enforces this international requirement by evaluating security compliance as part of our ongoing port state control
Any LNG vessel entering Long Island Sound would be subject to strict safety and security standards. There would be a moving
program.
security zone around the LNG carriers and a fixed safety zone around the proposed Floating, Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU). Coast Guard
enforcement activities would be based on the most current threat assessment as well as standing Coast Guard policy and procedures which account for known and unknown threats.
State and local law enforcement agencies could assist the Coast Guard with the enforcement of these safety zones.
Another element of the extensive layered security system established by MTSA is Coast Guard approved facility security
plans. Implementing the facility security plan for the FSRU would be Broadwater Energy's responsibility. An element of the facility security plan for the FSRU would include the
employment of private security guards to conduct on-water security patrols in the vicinity of the FSRU. Private security guards would not have the authority to enforce the fixed or moving
safety zones.
[[

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( ) Worse case scenario is 8000 dead.
Melhem, Kalelkar and Saraf ‘6
[PhD‘s in Energy-based Engineering. ―Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths‖ 2006. www.iomosaic.com/docs/whitepapers/Managing_LNG_Risks.pdf]
. But an
attack on an LNG terminal might not be so damaging. Terminals are equipped with emergency fire detection
mechanisms designed to minimize the impact of fires resulting from terrorist attacks or accidents. The most attractive
targets are the boats: 1,000-foot tankers with double hulls and specially constructed storage tanks that keep the LNG cold. A report, put out by Good Harbor
Consulting assessing the risk of a proposed LNG terminal in Providence, Rhode Island, concluded that a successful terrorist
attack on a tanker could result in as many as 8,000 deaths and upwards of 20,000 injuries . It is important to keep in mind that this is the
worst case scenario. A report on LNG safety and security by the University of Texas' Center for Energy and Economics
explains LNG "tanks require exceptionally large amounts of force to cause damage. Because the amount of energy required
to breach containment is so large, in almost all cases the major hazard presented by terrorists is a fire, not an explosion."

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Non-Unique: Natural Gas Low (1/1)


( ) Natural gas decreasing—other nations are emerging and increase predictions are wrong
Krauss ‘8
[Cliff. Energy Expert for the International Herald Tribune. ―US Expands LNG Capacity Just in Time for Shortages‖ The International Herald Tribune, 5/30/08]
The cost of a gallon of gasoline gets all the headlines, but the natural gas that will heat many homes in the United States next winter is going up in price as fast or faster as the nation falls
behind in a global race to secure the gas. Only a month after Cheniere Energy inaugurated its $1.4 billion liquefied natural gas terminal here - a languid, alligator-infested marshland in
coastal Louisiana - an empty supertanker sat in its berth with no place to go while workers painted empty storage tanks. The
nearly idle terminal is a monument to a
stalled switch to liquefied natural gas, or LNG, a switch that was supposed to import so much gas from around the world that homes would
be heated and factories humming at bargain prices. But LNG shipments to the United States are slowing to a trickle, and Cheniere and other
companies have dropped plans to build more terminals. A longstanding assumption of U.S. energy policy has been that gas
would be plentiful abroad, and therefore readily available for importation, as production falls off in North America, where
many fields are tapped out. But some experts are starting to question that idea, saying gas could be subject to the same
explosion in overseas demand that has made oil so expensive. As it is, the supertankers that were supposed to deliver cargoes
of LNG from Africa and the Middle East to the United States are taking them to places like Spain and Japan instead, pushing up natural gas prices and
depleting U.S. stockpiles. "A few years ago people looked at LNG as a solution to North America's gas needs," said Nikos Tsafos, an analyst with PCF Energy, a consulting firm. "But
today we see that there is less LNG around than people expected and there is more competition for that LNG from markets
that are willing to pay more than the United States." Not long ago, Cheniere was a darling of Wall Street. It was widely praised for having the vision to plan four LNG
terminals around the Gulf of Mexico to connect the United States with supplies of gas from places like Nigeria and Egypt, gas once considered so worthless it was burned off. Now the
company's stock price has sunk to just over $5 from $40 last autumn. "The question that people ask is, if LNG doesn't come to the United States for another year or two or three, what is
going to happen to Cheniere," Charif Souki, chief executive of the company, acknowledged. While gas prices in the United States have spiked to over $11.80 per thousand cubic feet, or
$417 per thousand cubic meters, an increase of 57 percent from the beginning of the year, the price gas producers can fetch is higher in many other countries in the world. All they need
are terminals in producing countries that can chill natural gas to minus 260 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 162 Celsius) for shipping across oceans and terminals in consuming countries that
Just about the only place where demand for LNG seems not to be growing is the United States, an abrupt shift
can re-gasify cargoes.
from expectations as little as one year ago. That was the thinking that spurred the LNG expansion in the United States in the first place. At the beginning of the
decade, government officials and energy experts predicted a decline in U.S. gas production as conventional fields onshore and in the Gulf of Mexico declined. Companies like Cheniere,
Sempra Energy and Exxon Mobil began snapping up coastal land and requesting regulatory approval for scores of terminals. Several other terminals were taken out of mothballs and
expanded. But recently, U.S. gas production has been stronger than expected and events abroad have drawn LNG from the United
States to countries that needed it more. Last July, an earthquake in Japan forced the closing of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant, which in turn has forced
Japanese utilities to import huge amounts of LNG. World LNG supplies grew even more scarce because of a persistent drought in Spain that
has crimped hydroelectric capacity, forcing the Spanish to increase LNG imports. Prices in Asia and Europe have soared, as producers have sold
more supply on the spot market where prices are higher than those in traditional long-term contracts. World demand for natural gas has grown about 2.6
percent a year over the past decade, but in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa it has averaged 7 percent over
the same period, according to a recent UBS report. Growth in the developing world is expected to be supported in the years ahead by a construction boom in refineries, power
plants and petrochemical plants. Supplies of LNG are going to grow in the next few years, but experts say there will not be enough to satisfy the growing demand. Liquefaction plants that
prepare the gas for shipping in producing nations like Nigeria and Russia are being delayed and even shelved because of political turbulence, cost overruns and increasing domestic
demand. Production in one major terminal in Indonesia is sliding because of a declining field, and production in another in Norway is facing mechanical difficulties. With
LNG
providing only about 3 percent of total U.S. natural gas consumption in recent years, the fall in imports has made few
headlines. But some experts say those responsible for importing gas are making a mistake by not buying more LNG at
current prices. They say low LNG imports have helped push U.S. natural gas prices higher, just not high enough to match the prices of Europe and Asia, whose ability to produce
and store gas is far lower than that of the United States.

( ) Natural gas bubble has burst—decline coming.


Greenwire 7/2
[―Oil and Gas: LNG Prices could Soon Catch up with Crude—Energy Ministers‖ 2 July 08. Lexis//MUDI—JV]
But North American supplies of natural gas will be flat or declining in coming years, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Because natural gas prices are already high in the United States, some experts fear a boom in natural gas demand for
electricity generation will send prices even higher.

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No Link (1/1)
( ) No link—other nations will buy excess natural gas, preventing flares.
Energy Trader ‘8
[―Goldman: LNG Demand to Bolster US Gas Prices‖ 20 June 2008. http://www.globalspec.com/engnews/source?f=958&s=7&p=1]
Voracious demand in South Korea and Spain will keep liquefied natural gas deliveries to the US low, which is bullish for domestic gas
prices, analysts at Goldman Sachs said late Wednesday. Analysts Samantha Dart and Jeffery Currie predict that Henry Hub prices will average $12.80/MMBtu over the summer and peak
at $13.80/MMBtu this winter before falling back to $10/MMBtu next June as Asia and Europe pull provide strong competition for LNG supply. "The
higher-than-expected
increase in LNG demand from Asia and Europe in the first quarter of 2008 was met by higher-than-expected LNG supplies
in the market, likely motivated by high spot LNG prices in the period and lower-than-expected North American LNG
imports," Dart said. "Both Mexico and the United States showed declines in LNG imports earlier this year relative to our
expectations." Goldman Sach's bottom line is that increased international demand for gas will bolster US prices as LNG deliveries will no longer help meet US
demand, which they still expect will increase despite a slower economy.

( ) US isn’t key—other nations use LNG at a faster rate


Klare ‘6
[Mike. Prof of Peace Studies @ Hampshire. ―The Geopolitics of Natural Gas‖ 23 Jan 06. The Nation. Lexis.]
Developing nations like China, India and South Korea, increasingly aware of the environmental consequences of their excessive reliance on oil and coal, are
also turning to natural gas. According to the Energy Department, gas consumption in China will grow by an estimated 7 percent per year
between 2001 and 2025, five times the rate for the United States and the largest for any major industrial power; India and South
Korea are also among the fastest-growing gas consumers. These projections help explain the aggressive steps being taken
by these countries to secure additional supplies of gas.

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Terrorism 2AC (1/1)


( ) Continued LNG imports risk massive terrorist attack—most likely scenario
Sullivan ‘8
[John. Energy Consultant with the GAO. ―GAO Report: LNG Tankers Remain Vulnerable, Coast Guard Unprepared‖ 14 Jan 08. Lexis]
The seaborne supply chain bringing natural gas to the US is becoming even more exposed to terrorist attack and
disruptions and the very agency charged with defending the nation's ports and harbors is getting stretched dangerously thin.
That was the conclusion of a US Government Accountability Office report released last week that challenged the nation's ability to protect its energy
supply chain. In particular, the GAO report said the Coast Guard cannot meet its own requirements for protecting either LNG carriers or oil
tankers entering US waters. "A lack of resources has hindered some Coast Guard units from meeting their self-imposed
requirements for security activities, such as escorts and boardings ," according to the GAO report. For fiscal year 2006, the Coast
Guard allocated four new ships for LNG security, but no requests were made for additional resources in 2007 or FY 2008.
According to the federal Energy Information Administration, two LNG-laden tankers arrive at one of five US terminals every
three days, but that number is expected to quadruple by 2015 as demand grows and more receiving capacity opens. The Department of
Energy predicts that the US will have to increase natural gas imports by 600% over the next 25 years to meet demand. LNG
is expected to play a large role in that, with imports projected to increase eight-fold to 4.4 trillion cubic feet per year. "These increased
demands could cause the Coast Guard to continue to be unable to meet the standards it has set for keeping US ports
secure," the GAO said. "We have received the report and are currently reviewing it," Coast Guard spokeswoman Angela Hirsch told Natural Gas Week . "LNG tankers are some of
the most heavily regulated and closely guarded vessels that come into any port in the US ," Hirsch said. "There are already very strong protocols that the Coast Guard has. These are in
place and are being followed." Some of those security measures include the LNG tankers being escorted from the harbor entrance to the terminal by armed Coast Guard vessels. Other
security measures include shutting down the port to any other traffic hours before the LNG carrier arrives and keeping an exclusion zone around the vessel while it is offloading its cargo.
According to the GAO, the
fact that new LNG terminals -- particularly along the US Gulf Coast -- are being built and scheduled to
begin coming online in several years, is the main reason that red flags are being raised about the Coast Guard. "Some
units' workloads are likely to grow as new liquefied natural gas facilities are added," according to the GAO. "Coast Guard headquarters has not
developed plans for shifting resources among units."

( ) Terrorist attacks against LNG tankers have the destructive force of a nuclear war
Reynolds ‘4
[Mark. Energy Writer, the Providence Journal. ―Lloyd‘s Exec Likens LNG Attack to Nuclear Explosion‖ 21 Sept 04. www.energybulletin.net/node/2202]
A terrorist attack on an LNG tanker "would have the force of a small nuclear explosion," according to the chairman of Lloyd's, a British insurer
of natural gas port facilities like the ones being proposed in Fall River and Providence. The assertion, which is contested by industry experts, was in a speech that the chairman, Peter
Levene, delivered last night to business leaders in Houston. Levene described Texas as a "state at risk" and said that securing its remote oil facilities is a "particular
challenge.""Gas carriers too, whether at sea or in ports, make obvious targets," said Levene. "Specialists reckon that a terrorist attack on an LNG tanker
would have the force of a small nuclear explosion." Levene did not name the specialists in his remarks, although a text of his speech contains a footnote. The footnote attributes the
observation to the author of an article posted, in an abbreviated form, on the Web site of Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor in July. The same abstract, apparently authored by the
same person, Dr. J.C.K. Daly, was also posted on the Internet weblog Talk Show American. Levene also did not specify Texas LNG port facilities and tanker ships that might be at risk.
Records kept by federal regulators show that several LNG port facilities have been proposed in Texas. They do not show any existing facilities. Levene's company, Lloyd's, is the world's
second-largest commercial insurer. The chairman could not be reached for comment yesterday. Some
critics of the proposal in Fall River have spoken in apocalyptic
terms of potential LNG disasters. But to date, no official reports by government regulators have made comparisons between the various LNG catastrophes that
experts have hypothesized and destruction from an atomic bomb. One report does describe hypothetical fires that might
erupt if gas leaks from a tanker in its liquid form changes into a gaseous form and ignites when it comes into contact with a
flame. In one instance, the blaze, in less than a minute, would be capable of inflicting third-degree burns a little less than a
mile away.

Marquette University Debate Institute Natural Gas Disadvantage


MUDI 2k8 Natural Gas: Wave 2
Batterman/Quenette/Voss 21/22

High Natural Gas Prices Jack Economy (1/1)


( ) High Natural gas prices ensure recession—consumer taxes
IECA ‘3
[Industrial Energy Consumers of America. 3 Dec 03. ―41 Month Natural Gas Crisis has Cost US consumers over $111 Billion‖ www.ieca-us.com ]
Every U.S. economic recession has been preceded by high energy prices and this recession was no different . IECA believes
the natural gas crisis started in June 2000. Government officials say the U.S. recession officially began in March 2001. High sustained natural gas prices are a
hidden tax on consumers, depressing disposable personal income and savings, and ultimately consumer spending
which accounts for two-thirds of the economy. Sustained high natural gas prices impede economic growth and severely
impacts competitiveness of industry.
( ) High natural gas prices cause supply-side shock—derails growth
Brown ‘3
[Stephen. Director of Energy Economics @ the Federal Reserve in Dallas. ―US Natural Gas Markets in Turmoil‖ Testimony before the US house of Representatives,
19 June 2003. http://resourcescommittee.house.gov/108cong/energy/2003jun19/brown.htm]
Sustained high natural gas prices are likely a drag on U.S. economic activity. Higher energy prices are indicative of increased scarcity of
natural gas which is a basic input to production. (7) As such, rising natural gas prices can result in a classic supply-side shock that
reduces potential output. Consequently, output and productivity growth are slowed. The decline in productivity growth lessens real wage growth and
increases the unemployment rate at which inflation accelerates. (8) If market participants expect the near-term effects on output to be greater than the long-term effects, they will
attempt to smooth their consumption by saving less or borrowing more, which boosts the interest rate. With slowing output growth and an increase in the real interest rate, the
demand for real cash balances falls, and for a given rate of growth in the monetary aggregate, the rate of inflation increases. Therefore, rising natural gas prices
reduce GDP growth and boost real interest rates and the measured rate of inflation. (9)
( ) Natural gas jacks the manufacturing sector—which is key to the overall economy
IECA ‘3
[Industrial Energy Consumers of America. 3 Dec 03. ―41 Month Natural Gas Crisis has Cost US consumers over $111 Billion‖ www.ieca-us.com ]
The impact of high energy costs on manufacturing is significant and it contributed greatly to reduce manufacturing after-tax profits during the 41
month natural gas crisis. According to Bureau of Census data, manufacturing profits fell 47.7 % during the time period of the natural gas crisis versus the previous 41 months.
Manufacturing plays an important role in the economic health of our country and we must recognize that affordable energy,
including natural gas, is essential. In the past, the affordability of U.S. energy was a key factor in manufacturing building their factories
here. Now, the non-globally competitive price of natural gas and natural gas feedstock is forcing manufacturing companies to produce their products elsewhere. According to the
National Association of Manufacturers, manufacturing
accounts for 22 % of GDP growth, contributes one-third of the economy‘s
productivity growth, creates more business activity and jobs in other sectors than any other industry , performs 62 % of U.S. private
sector R&D, pays the highest wages –18 % higher than the national average and makes two-thirds of all U.S. exports.

Marquette University Debate Institute Natural Gas Disadvantage


MUDI 2k8 Natural Gas: Wave 2
Batterman/Quenette/Voss 22/22

Fertilizer 2AC (1/1)


Low natural gas prices are key to the fertilizer industry.
Andrew Mickey, Chief Investment Strategist of Q1 Publishing, 07-22-2008
[―The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust,‖ Seeking Alpha, Available Online at http://seekingalpha.com/article/86184-the-agriculture-boom-goes-bust, Accessed 07-28-2008 // MUDI-BB]
According to Mosaic‘s most recent annual report, the company has
a lot of exposure to natural gas prices. Mosaic states, ‗Natural Gas is the primary
raw material used in nitrogen production and may represent as much as 90% of a ton of nitrogen-based fertilizer.‖ That‘s huge
exposure. 90% of costs! Of course, that‘s just for nitrogen-based fertilizer. It takes a lot of natural gas to make other types of fertilizer .
Natural gas costs account for as much as 85% of ammonia-based fertilizer. And solution mining of potash, which Mosaic owns the largest potash solution mine in the world, uses a lot of
natural gas. Mosaic estimates 14% of its potash production costs go to pay the gas bill. When it comes to fertilizer, natural gas is very, very important.
During the 2nd quarter of 2008, natural gas prices climbed about 40%. Mosaic admits only ―a portion‖ of its natural gas consumption is hedged. As a result, I expect high natural gas
prices to have a big impact on profits. Not all Fertilizer Companies Created Equal Not all fertilizer companies are the same though. Only a few produce highly sought after and monopoly
protected potash. They are the only ones that really benefit from soaring potash prices. Other fertilizer companies, which have to buy potash, ammonia, etc. don‘t enjoy being
able to pass on higher costs forever. Sure, they can pass on the higher costs to customers for a while, but that will only work for so long .
Reuters published the headline, ―New threat to food system: pricey fertilizer.‖ High prices will reduce total fertilizer used. It‘s simple economics. Fertilizer prices are not
inelastic. High prices are reducing total fertilizer use around the world. We could see a big impact on reduced consumption when the Q2 numbers come out in the next few days. It‘s
Happened Before This wouldn‘t be the first time high costs wrecked fertilizer stocks though. Back in 2005, when hurricanes sent natural gas prices soaring, fertilizer stocks
were hit hard. In the two months that followed Hurricane Katrina, fertilizer industry stocks fell 25% on average.

That causes food price increases.


Mongabay, 2008 [―World fertilizer prices surge 200% in 2007,‖ February 22nd, Available Online at http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0220-fertilizers.html, Accessed 07-28-2008 //
MUDI-BB]
"The unprecedented rise in fertilizer prices—more than 200% in the past year—is creating a fertilizer crisis for resource-poor farmers in
developing countries," Bumb says. "Particularly hard-hit are farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers there need fertilizers desperately, to replenish
their nutrient-depleted soils. But fertilizer use in Africa is the world's lowest—about 8 kg per hectare. The lack of fertilizers in Africa accentuates
hunger and poverty. To stimulate adequate fertilizer use, the purchasing power of the poorest of the poor must be enhanced through market-friendly safety nets so they can be
included in the marketing process." The rising price of fertilizers contributes to a positive feedback loop for grain prices. As the cost of
inputs increase, so do prices of food. IFDC says the convergence of food prices and energy prices is fueling rocketing fertilizer
prices.
That kills billions.
Tampa Tribune, 1-20-96
On a global scale, food supplies - measured by stockpiles of grain - are not abundant. In 1995, world production failed to meet demand for the third consecutive year,
said Per Pinstrup-Andersen, director of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, D.C. As a result, grain stockpiles fell from an average of 17 percent of annual
consumption in 1994-1995 to 13 percent at the end of the 1995-1996 season, he said. That's troubling, Pinstrup-Andersen noted, since 13 percent is well below the 17 percent the
United Nations considers essential to provide a margin of safety in world food security. During the food crisis of the early 1970s, world grain stocks were at 15 percent. "Even if
they are merely blips, higher international prices can hurt poor countries that import a significant portion of their food ," he said.
"Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion people in the developing world who live on a dollar a day or less."
He also said many people in low-income countries already spend more than half of their income on food.

Marquette University Debate Institute Natural Gas Disadvantage