Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Europe Trade DA
Europe Trade DA.......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1NC............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1NC............................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 1NC............................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1nc................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 1NC .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Uniqueness.................................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Unique -EU-US Climate Relations............................................................................................................................................. 11 Unique -EU-US Climate Relations............................................................................................................................................. 12 Unique - Both Candidates Cap and Trade ..................................................................................................................................13 Unique - Both Candidates Cap and Trade...................................................................................................................................14 Unique - Both Candidates Cap and Trade...................................................................................................................................15 Unique - EU Expects US Climate Action................................................................................................................................... 16 Unique - EU Expects US Climate Action................................................................................................................................... 17 Unique - EU Expects US Climate Action................................................................................................................................... 18 Unique - EU Liberalizing Trade - Climate..................................................................................................................................19 Unique - EU Liberalizing Trade - Climate..................................................................................................................................20 Unique: AT: No Regulations ......................................................................................................................................................21 Unique: AT: Incentives Now...................................................................................................................................................... 22 Unique: AT: Incentives Now ..................................................................................................................................................... 23 Unique: AT: Incentives Now...................................................................................................................................................... 24 Unique - AT: BioFuel Subsides ................................................................................................................................................. 25 AT: Iraq killed US-EU trade....................................................................................................................................................... 26 Links............................................................................................................................................................................................27 Extension - Generic Link ........................................................................................................................................................... 28 Extension - general Links............................................................................................................................................................29 Extension - general Links............................................................................................................................................................30 Link-- environmental policy........................................................................................................................................................31 Link – environmental policy....................................................................................................................................................... 32 Link--environmental policy.........................................................................................................................................................33 Link --Incentives......................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Link -- Incentives........................................................................................................................................................................ 34 Link-- incentives......................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Link – incentives ........................................................................................................................................................................ 37 1

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008
Link - incentives..........................................................................................................................................................................38 Link Incentives............................................................................................................................................................................ 39 Link—Incentives......................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Link--Subsidies........................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Link—Domestic Policy...............................................................................................................................................................42 Link-must be 0 emissions............................................................................................................................................................43 Link—policy not Kyoto.............................................................................................................................................................. 44 Link – policy not Kyoto............................................................................................................................................................. 45 Link – policy not Kyoto............................................................................................................................................................. 46 Link – policy not Kyoto............................................................................................................................................................. 47 Link – policy not Kyoto............................................................................................................................................................. 49 Link – policy not Kyoto............................................................................................................................................................. 50 Link – policy not Kyoto............................................................................................................................................................. 51 Link - technology....................................................................................................................................................................... 52 Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap............................................................................................................ 53 Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap............................................................................................................ 54 Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap............................................................................................................ 55 Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap............................................................................................................ 56 Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap............................................................................................................ 57 Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap............................................................................................................ 58 Internal Links - Carbon Tarrifs/Relations................................................................................................................................... 59 Carbon Tariffs = Trade War........................................................................................................................................................60 Carbon Tariffs= Trade War .......................................................................................................................................................61 Carbon Tariffs =Trade War ........................................................................................................................................................62 Trade Key to US-EU Relations .................................................................................................................................................. 63 Trade Key to US-Eu Relations ...................................................................................................................................................64 Trade Key to US-Eu Relations ...................................................................................................................................................65 Impacts ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 66 US-EU Free Trade - Extensions..................................................................................................................................................67 US-EU Trade Economy -Module ...............................................................................................................................................68 US-EU Trade Economy - Extensions .........................................................................................................................................69 US-EU Relations Democracy Module........................................................................................................................................ 70 US-EU Relations Democracy Extensions .................................................................................................................................. 71 US-EU Solves Iran Prolif Module.............................................................................................................................................. 72 US-EU Coop on Iran Prolif Now................................................................................................................................................ 73 2

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008
US-EU Cooperation on Prolif Now............................................................................................................................................ 74 US-Eu Key to Iran Prolif.............................................................................................................................................................75 US-EU Solves Peace Process Module ....................................................................................................................................... 76 US-EU Solves Peace Process - Extension..................................................................................................................................77 US-EU Relations - Heg Module..................................................................................................................................................78 US-EU Relations -Heg Extensions............................................................................................................................................. 79 US-EU Relations -Heg Extensions............................................................................................................................................. 80 US-EU Bioterror Module ........................................................................................................................................................... 81 US-EU Bioterror - Extensions.....................................................................................................................................................82 US-EU Relations Solves War - General .................................................................................................................................... 83 US-EU Relations Solves War - General..................................................................................................................................... 84 US-EU Trade Solves LL............................................................................................................................................................. 85 US-EU key to Indo-Pak...............................................................................................................................................................86 US-EU key to Central Asian stability......................................................................................................................................... 87 US-EU key to Disease.................................................................................................................................................................88 US-EU key to Bird Flu................................................................................................................................................................89 US-EU  NMD..........................................................................................................................................................................90 US-EU  NMD..........................................................................................................................................................................91 US-EU Relations - Turns Case - Climate....................................................................................................................................92 US-EU Relations - Turns Case - Climate....................................................................................................................................93 US-EU Relations - Turns Case - Climate....................................................................................................................................94 Afff.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 95 US-EU can’t solve terrorism/prolif............................................................................................................................................. 96 US-EU alliance fails....................................................................................................................................................................97 Won’t Cause US-EU trade conflicts .......................................................................................................................................... 98 No US-EU Cooperation on Middle East .................................................................................................................................... 99 US-EU relations low - climate.................................................................................................................................................. 100 AT: “Value Gap” hurts counterterrrorism ................................................................................................................................101 No Obama Change.................................................................................................................................................................... 102 No Obama/McCain Kyoto Agreement......................................................................................................................................103 Aff: Depending on McCain/Obama ......................................................................................................................................... 104 Aff: Depending on McCain/Obama.......................................................................................................................................... 105 Won’t Cut W/O Dev Countries................................................................................................................................................. 106 Non-Unique: France Taxes Imports.......................................................................................................................................... 107 No Bush Change .......................................................................................................................................................................108 3

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008
US-EU Relations Won’t Fail.....................................................................................................................................................109 Bush Can’t Influence.................................................................................................................................................................110 Bush Can’t Influence.................................................................................................................................................................111 Bush Can’t Influence.................................................................................................................................................................112 Aff – No link............................................................................................................................................................................. 113 Aff – no link.............................................................................................................................................................................. 114 Aff-Eu already mad................................................................................................................................................................... 115 Perception – world climate policy.............................................................................................................................................116

4

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

1NC
A. The EU is holding off on trade barriers because they believe the Us will increase c02 regulations Stephen Boucher, Former Advisor on European Affairs for the Belgian Deputy PM - Prof. @ Science Po in Paris, 4/4/’8 [Clinton, Obama, McCain - Europe’s Best Hope for Fighting Climate Change, http://www.notreeurope.eu/uploads/tx_publication/Policypaper34-SBoucher-ClimateChange-en.pdf] What EU governments and institutions can do in the forthcoming months in relation to US plans for climate change can only be modest in the context of an electoral campaign. However, with the promising trends described above, an unprecedented opportunity has arisen to form a transatlantic alliance to lead efforts to fight global warming. Climate change could now be seen as a common cause for the EU and the USA, rather than an issue that pits both sides of the Atlantic against each other. There is the possibility to help
drive the world towards an international agreement that seriously tackles the issue of global warming. In light of these objectives, EU policy-makers should, more specifically: •Maintain high standards; • Monitor closely US efforts and debates and engage in discussions over precise mechanisms in order to address competitiveness concerns jointly; • Encourage common thinking on China and India.45 These tasks will fall primarily to the French administration under its presidency of the EU in the second half of 2008, to European Commission officials, and to the Swedish presidency, in the second half of 2009, as the Czech government has clearly indicated that climate change will not be a priority, unlike for the French and Swedish governments. Despite Czech President Vaclav Klaus’ skepticism regarding climate change, the Czech government has nevertheless indicated informally to its French partners that it will not hinder France’s efforts to conclude legislative negotiations on the Commission’s proposals by the end of 2008. 3.2 Maintain high standards If the EU wishes to play an active role, it should not provide ammunition for those in the USA seeking to lower long-term objectives nor weaken future US legislation. This could happen with the current dilution of goals indicated by the fact that the EU had committed to a reduction by 25- 40% in Bali. The EU environment commissioner, as mentioned above, has talked of an insufficient goal of 50% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2050. This goal was in fact endorsed at the June 2007 G8 meeting in Heiligendamm. This sends the wrong signal. A weakening of EU resolve has also been noticed concerning auctioning rules. Emphatic talk about the EU’s leadership should not hide this. At present, the best thing the EU can do in 2008 is therefore to put its own house in order. This would mean reaching a preliminary agreement between the Council and the Parliament by the end of 2008 and sticking as closely as possible to the Commission’s proposal. This will require resisting national industry lobbying on a number of dimensions. European policy makers should also consider enforcing the 30% emissions reduction target by 2020 even before an international agreement is reached. If Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama is elected, this will help them stick to the more demanding plans they have backed. If McCain is elected, this will help him go higher than the 65% reduction goal by 2050 he has announced, considered insufficient, and at least not go lower. On the other hand, one should be wary of letting the current US administration’s recalcitrance push Europe to make counter-proposals that are too bold. A careful balance needs to be found between proposing anything too radical, while keeping the pressure on, and preparing for quick movement in January 2009. 3.3 Initiate discussion on mechanisms Two striking observations can be made regarding the current situation. First, for the first time, legislative proposals seeking to address climate change happen to be under

discussion in parallel on both sides of the Atlantic and may come to fruition in 2009. Second, as seen above, while there are real similarities between US and EU plans, the United States may possibly go further than the EU on a number of aspects, and vice versa. The opportunity is thus ripe for Europe to engage the United States in climate policy deliberations and for EU discussions to benefit from US plans. Whether with each campaign individually, or the US policy arena collectively, the most important thing is for Europe to engage Americans actively on the climate issue. The American mainstream is fast becoming aware of the climate problem, and could benefit from learning of Europe’s experience in tackling the issue. Also, it is crucial that both US and EU policies trend towards harmonization and integration, especially for the functioning of carbon markets. Therefore, at this formative stage, the European Union, the United States, and the world would benefit from a closer alignment of climate policies across the Atlantic. Efforts should be focused on finding common legislative ground, so as to increase the likelihood that the US outcome can work with the EU regime, and vice versa. Until the future tells us who becomes the next US President, EU policymakers would therefore be well advised to follow closely discussions and legislative progress on climate change in the USA. They should continue carrying out negotiations with the Bush administration while remembering that a more climate-ambitious administration will be coming soon. Pursuing informal channels of
diplomacy is also in order. Making contact with the staff of all three candidates would be wise. Informal diplomacy, with the help of relevant EU and US think tanks and officials would not be time wasted. Engaging private sector stakeholders across the two sides of the Atlantic is also important, to foster common thinking and support. 3.4 Encourage common thinking on China, India and other major emitters The critical issue moving forward is treatment of BRICs and differentiated responsibility. This is the stated reason of the Byrd-Hagel resolution opposing the Kyoto treaty in 1997, and could ultimately derail - or at least stymie and delay - US climate policy action. Therefore, addressing this issue is essential for ensuring US action, no matter who the President-elect is. Europe has a vital and important role to play in facilitating these difficult discussions, as it did in Bali. Also, the EU and the future US President will agree that the best way to tackle global warming while limiting the impact on their

5

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

1NC
competitiveness is by involving as many countries as possible under the principle of common but differentiated responsibility. This requires bringing in developing countries, if necessary starting from relatively limited emission cuts. There will be no Congress backing if the BRICs are not seriously committed. However, the current bill moving through Senate requires “comparable” action from developing countries, indicating that it may become more flexible on the issue. Considering the outcome of the December UNFCCC Bali meeting, it would seem that China is ready to play a more constructive role. China and other emerging countries agreed for the first time in Bali to try to make “measurable, reportable and verifiable” emissions cuts.46 However, they did not appear to be ready to agreeing to any mandatory restrictions in the near future. Their priority remains economic development. Both the EU and the USA should therefore seek jointly to make use of these

positive signals for a global climate treaty, while engaging in discussions with all major emitters with an open mind. Most importantly, they should not talk unwisely of “border adjustments”47 and tariffs on imported goods from countries without carbon pricing. Rightly so, EU Commission President Barroso said that this issue would only be reviewed in 2010 in the light of international negotiations. EU government should adhere to this discipline. This is true also for the USA, where import tariffs have been requested by a number of business interest groups. Conclusion Europe should already start looking beyond the Bush Administration and begin to engage alternative and emerging policy leaders. This is a crucial period in US climate policy formulation and Europe has a rare and fleeting opportunity to help inform US climate policy development. For those in Europe who assume that a Democrat as President of the USA would be more inclined to join forces with Europe to lead the global fight against climate change, this paper suggests that there is in fact a unique opportunity lying ahead to join forces with the forthcoming US administration, no matter who wins the November election. However, it also argues that the resolve of any of the three could be dampened if faced with resistance. Or, possibly, with Europe’s own lack of ambition EU policy makers today should be governed by an exceptional sense of urgency. If Europe adopts clear legislation, it could bolster efforts by those in the USA who have similar goals. They should also be governed by the notion that convergence is desirable, as opposed to a form of beauty contest some seem to believe the EU is engaged in with the United States. This could lead to the creation before the end of 2009 of a transatlantic consensus helping shape a successor treaty to the Kyoto treaty. As Europe wrestles with the difficulty of being leader and worries about the impact on its economy, its best hope today is to prepare to join forces with the next US administration, setting bold long term emissions targets and encouraging cooperation with developing countries.

6

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

1NC
The Plan Will be Percieved as a Trojan Horse to Block US Cap and Trade Ensuring EU Backlash
Time Magazine, staff writer Andrew Purvis, 6-4-07, Europe vs. Bush on global warming, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1628024,00.html [Barber] The targets require taking steps to ensure that average temperatures on the planet increase by no more than 2 degrees celsius by the end of the century, and to slash greenhouse gas emissions to 50% of the 1990 level before 2050. But when the German draft was circulated two weeks ago in Washington, U.S. negotiators declared, in a document leaked shortly afterwards, that the German draft "crossed multiple 'red lines'" and that "there is only so far we can go, given our fundamental opposition to the German position." Then, on May 31, President George W. Bush announced his own climate change inititiative, which calls on the leaders of the 15 leading producers of the heat-trapping gases to develop long term voluntary emission-reduction goals. The proposal, notably short on specfics, raised concern in Europe that Bush was trying to make an end-run around the existing United Nations process for addressing climate change, which includes the Kyoto agreement. The German environment minister warned of a possible "trojan horse" designed to sidestep an agreement in Heiligendamm and "torpedo the international climate protection process." Underlying the increasingly testy exchange are fundamental differences over how the climate crisis is to be addressed. The biggest worry in Europe is that the Bush Administration approach of stressing technology and voluntary targets will weaken the global effort under U.N. auspices to set mandatory targets. "America increasingly wants to use new technologies and in this way test how much carbon dioxide emissions can be decreased," Angela Merkel told the newsmagazine Der Spiegel. "We Europeans find it more compelling to agree on goals on an international level, and direct our efforts accordingly." She added: "I encourage [President Bush] to be courageous and lead the way with concrete climate protection goals." Sigmar Gabriel, the German Environment Minister, added: "What we need now is a worldwide climate change regime. We need clear aims and we have to be able to check if the contracting partners stick to the goals." Defenders of the Bush plan contend that it would actually help the U.N. process by bringing in countries such as China and India, along with the U.S., that have been reluctant to sign on to a more top-down approach. And tempers appear to be cooling as the G8 summit draws near. Merkel announced over the weekend that the U.S. President's proposals of May 31 were, in fact, "very welcome ... if they are channeled into the framework of [U.N. treaty negotiations]." Blair, speaking afterward, agreed that "it is good that the U.S. has made these commitments," while adding, "We need to make sure that we keep these targets within the U.N. agreement." Still, the U.S. and the Europeans are unlikely to resolve differences when their leaders meet this week. Though there's a chance the Europeans could water down the communique by agreeing to remove concrete targets, Merkel insisted last weekend that she would not do so. No European leaders are going to suffer politically for standing up to the Bush Administration on global warming. But they point to President Bush's recent acknowledgement that man-made global warming is a reality as a sign of progress — and sufficient reason for avoiding a head-on collision, at least for now. Administration on global warming. But they point to President Bush's recent acknowledgement that man-made global warming is a reality as a sign of progress — and sufficient reason for avoiding a head-on collision, at least for now.

7

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

1nc
EU Climate Trade Sanctions Spills Over to Collapse the WTO Euractiv '8 [January 28, EU Warned of Trade War Over Climate Measures, http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?
type=DocDet&ObjectId=MjgyNjc] The Commission's threat of climate-related trade sanctions aimed at putting EU and third country producers on a level footing appears mainly targeted at convincing governments in Washington and Beijing to adhere to a global deal on climate change. Indeed, the EU executive has confirmed that it will not decide on the introduction of any such measures before 2011. However, the mere fact that the EU is considering such action has already caused outrage among its trade partners. The United States has warned it would "vigorously" resist any move to introduce a tax on American products based on its position in. Last week , US Trade Representative Susan Schwab accused the EU of using the climate as an excuse for protectionism. Legal experts remain divided on whether the EU's proposed measures would be compatible with international trade regulations, as the WTO has no clear provisions on the subject. On the one hand, border adjustment measures could be considered to contravene WTO rules prohibiting discrimination between countries or between "like products". On the other, WTO law also states that countries may deviate from these rules if it is for the protection of animal, plant or human health or for the conservation of natural resources. Positions Commission President José Manuel Barroso said: "There would be no point in pushing EU companies to cut emissions if the only result is that production, and indeed pollution, shifts to countries with no carbon disciplines at all." A spokesman from the US Mission to the EU told EurActiv that while the US was encouraged to see that the EU's new climate package does not introduce any trade-restrictive action on imports, the US would be "vigorous in resisting calls for any form of trade protectionism as a response to climate change." Furthermore, the US appears to have won British support. "We are against any measures which might look like trade barriers […] There is always the danger that the protectionists in Europe - and they do exist - could use this as a kind of secret weapon to bring about protectionism," British Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks told the BBC. France, however, is continuing to push for protection against unfair international competition to avoid massive delocalisation of EU companies. The establishment of a border adjustment mechanism is a "fundamental element" of the package and France will work "very closely" with the European Commission between now and 2011 on proposals to set up the scheme, insisted French Minister of Ecology and Sustainable Development Jean-Louis Borloo . According to the Financial Times, Ujal Singh Bhatia, India's ambassador to the WTO , warned against the risk of retaliation and litigation from the EU's trade partners if it goes ahead with trade restrictive measures. He said: "Unilateral measures at this stage would create contentiousness and lead to charges of protectionism […] If the countries imposing such measures invoke Gatt provisions to justify them, the dispute settlement mechanism in [the] WTO would face serious challenges and create divisions along North-South lines." However, British Liberal MEP Chris Davies welcomed the idea of tariffs, saying they would create a level-playing field for business: "It makes more likely an emissions trading scheme on a worldwide basis, if manufacturers in China know they are not going to gain entry." But business leaders fear that imposing "climate tariffs" could provoke trade retaliation. Folker Franz, a senior policy adviser at BusinessEurope, the European employers' organisation , said: "If you impose import measures on others, the others might do the same." As an alternative, he said the EU should promote the clean development mechanism – a scheme which allows European companies to invest in carbon-reduction projects in the developing world.

8

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

1NC
Nuclear Extinction Copley News ’99 [12/1, Commentary, ln] For decades, many children in America and other countries went to bed fearing annihilation by nuclear war. The specter of nuclear winter freezing the life out of planet Earth seemed very real. Activists protesting the World Trade Organization's meeting in Seattle apparently have forgotten that threat. The truth is that nations join together in groups like the WTO not just to further their own prosperity, but also to forestall conflict with other nations. In a way, our planet has traded in the threat of a worldwide nuclear war for the benefit of cooperative global economics. Some Seattle protesters clearly fancy themselves to be in the mold of nuclear disarmament or anti-Vietnam War protesters of decades past. But they're not. They're special-interest activists, whether the cause is environmental, labor or paranoia about global government. Actually, most of the demonstrators in Seattle are very much unlike yesterday's peace activists, such as Beatle John Lennon or philosopher Bertrand Russell, the father of the nuclear disarmament movement, both of whom urged people and nations to work together rather than strive against each other. These and other war protesters would probably approve of 135 WTO nations sitting down peacefully to discuss economic issues that in the past might have been settled by bullets and bombs. As long as nations are trading peacefully, and their economies are built on exports to other countries, they have a major disincentive to wage war. That's why bringing China, a budding superpower, into the WTO is so important. As exports to the United States and the rest of the world feed Chinese prosperity, and that prosperity increases demand for the goods we produce, the threat of hostility diminishes. Many anti-trade protesters in Seattle claim that only multinational corporations benefit from global trade, and that it's the everyday wage earners who get hurt. That's just plain wrong. First of all, it's not the military-industrial complex benefiting. It's U.S. companies that make high-tech goods. And those companies provide a growing number of jobs for Americans. In San Diego, many people have good jobs at Qualcomm, Solar Turbines and other companies for whom overseas markets are essential. In Seattle, many of the 100,000 people who work at Boeing would lose their livelihoods without world trade. Foreign trade today accounts for 30 percent of our gross domestic product. That's a lot of jobs for everyday workers. Growing global prosperity has helped counter the specter of nuclear winter. Nations of the world are learning to live and work together, like the singers of anti-war songs once imagined. Those who care about world peace shouldn't be protesting world trade. They should be celebrating it.

9

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Uniqueness

10

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique -EU-US Climate Relations US-EU relations are strong even in the areas of trade and climate change. Colleen P. Graffy, Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, 5/13/08, Gaffy, Trade, Climate Change and Soft Power--Does America Have Friends in Europe?, http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/104981.htm [SD]
So, when I am posed the question: “Does America have friends in Europe with regard to trade and climate change?” I would say not only does the U.S. have friends, the U.S. also has partners. Let’s remember that the transatlantic market today makes up nearly 55 percent of global GDP and about 40 percent of world trade. So there is a strong incentive to work together as friends and partners. Both the United States and Europe believe in strong and effective regulation to protect our citizens and the environment. However, in some cases, unnecessary differences in our regulatory approaches have made our companies less competitive, raised consumer costs, reduced consumer choice and slowed job creation. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and BusinessEurope believe that if we could align our economies better, we could generate $10 billion in saved costs and potential growth for the transatlantic economy. And so, working together, we are trying to do exactly that, by creating the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC), which met for the second time today in Brussels. The TEC was created in April 2007, under the Framework for Advancing Transatlantic Economic Integration, and was signed by President Bush, Chancellor Merkel and European Commission President Barroso during the U.S.-EU Summit in Washington, DC. The goal of the TEC is to promote regulatory cooperation, eliminate barriers to transatlantic trade, advance capital market liberalization, and strengthen support for open investment regimes. In short, it is trying to reduce barriers to trade and investment. In the area of the environment, the Transatlantic Economic Council is recommending that the June 2008 U.S.-EU Summit consider joint efforts in clean energy technologies that will help us address our shared concerns about energy security and climate change.

Bush implements many climate change policies to keep US-EU relations strong Colleen P. Graffy, Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, 5/13/08, Gaffy, Trade, Climate Change and Soft Power--Does America Have Friends in Europe?, http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/104981.htm [SD]
Another example of our multilateral cooperation with the EU is the Methane to Markets Partnership, which is an international effort to promote methane recovery and its use as a clean source of energy. Methane accounts for 16 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions that come from human activities. It remains in the atmosphere for up to 15 years and is also a primary constituent of natural gas and an important energy source. So if we can either prevent or use methane emissions, we can achieve significant energy, economic and environmental benefits. This Partnership, which began in 2004, has the potential to deliver, by 2015, annual reductions in methane emissions that would be the equivalent of removing 33 million cars from the roadways for one year, or planting 55 million acres of trees. The Transatlantic Economic Council and the Methane to Markets Partnership are two examples of U.S.-EU cooperation. Before I describe others, it might be helpful to know about the commitments the U.S. has made domestically on energy security, renewable and alternative energy sources and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. As many of you know, President Bush signed the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) in December 2007. EISA was in response to the President’s "Twenty in Ten" challenge in last year's State of the Union Address to improve vehicle fuel economy and increase alternative fuels. The act includes some significant measures, including a Renewable Fuels Mandate that will increase the use of renewable fuels by 500 percent, and a Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate, which specifies a national mandatory fuel economy standard of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. That mandate alone would save billions of gallons of fuel and increase efficiency by 40 percent. EISA also phases out the use of incandescent light bulbs by 2014, sets new mandatory efficiency standards for appliances, and requires all federal buildings to reduce their energy consumption by 30 percent by 2015 and to be carbon-neutral by 2030.

11

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique -EU-US Climate Relations US-EU relations promote multilateral cooperation Colleen P. Graffy, Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, 5/13/08, Gaffy, Trade, Climate Change and Soft Power--Does America Have Friends in Europe?, http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/104981.htm [SD]
Not only do the U.S. and EU cooperate closely bilaterally, but we also work together multilaterally. Last September, the President launched the Major Economies Process (MEP) as a way to support and accelerate the UN process. We believe that when you gather around a single table the 17 economies that represent 80 percent of the world’s economy and 80 percent of the world’s emissions, you can make a significant contribution to the UN talks. The EU and several European countries participate in the MEP, and France just hosted the latest meeting in Paris in April. The result is that for the first time ever there will be a Major Economies Meeting (MEM) at the time of the G-8 Summit where MEM countries will be represented at the leader level. European countries also played an important role at the recent Washington International Renewable Energy Conference (WIREC), which brought together government officials, civil society and private sector leaders from around the world to advance the development and commercialization of renewable energy And let’s not forget the World Trade Organization (WTO). Last year, U.S. Trade Representative Susan C. Schwab announced that the United States and the European Union had submitted a proposal—in the WTO—to increase global trade in environmental goods and services. This initiative places priority on technologies that are directly linked to addressing climate change and energy security. The U.S. and EU also proposed to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers to environmental technologies and services in the Doha Round. In addition, the U.S. is forming several other international partnerships to pursue clean and renewable energy, such as the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP). The APP, which includes Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Korea and India, has endorsed more than 25 new renewable energy projects. There are also other international partnerships and initiatives, including working with Sweden to advance biofuel and clean vehicle technologies, and working with the private sector and the United Kingdom's Wave Hub to harness the power of the ocean. And of course we have the agreement reached under the Montreal Protocol to speed the phase-out of hydro chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) that deplete the ozone layer. If you leave today with only one message from my remarks, I hope it is the message that the United States is actively engaged and working with other countries in a multilateral way to find solutions to these energy issues that the whole world is facing.

12

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - Both Candidates Cap and Trade EU expects similar strategies from US presidential candidates to decrease emissions
Stephen Boucher, consultant in the energy policy field, 4/2008, Clinton, Obama, McCain - Europe’s Best Hope for Fighting Climate Change, http://www.notre-europe.eu/uploads/tx_publication/Policypaper34-SBoucherClimateChange-en.pdf [SD]
How do US plans compare with the EU’s? The short answer is: favorably.20 As summarized in Table 1 below, plans endorsed by US presidential candidates are on par with EU plans on several key dimensions of emissions trading. A notable exception is the issue of flexibility, where US proposals allow for overly generous use of reduction projects outside the USA. First, the long-term targets in US legislative proposals (between 65% for McCain and 80% for Clinton and Obama) are at least as ambitious as the EU’s, if not more. Official EU statements have suggested that “significant emission reductions of 60%-80% compared to 1990 will be necessary by 2050, if we are to reach the strategic objective of limiting the global average temperature increase to not more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.”22 Yet, EU environment commissioner Stavros Dimas also recently spoke of the need for global emissions to “be cut by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.” The percentage of auctioning is higher. And coverage, both in terms of industries and gases is also potentially greater. For the EU, it represents about half its economy from 2013. For the US, about 80%.

U.S. presidential candidates are expected to fight climate change
Stephen Boucher, consultant in the energy policy field, 4/2008, Clinton, Obama, McCain - Europe’s Best Hope for Fighting Climate Change, http://www.notre-europe.eu/uploads/tx_publication/Policypaper34-SBoucherClimateChange-en.pdf [SD]
One might consider Obama’s environmental record, Clinton’s precise plans, or McCain’s boldness in sponsoring legislation in Congress to suggest that one or the other is a better candidate for fighting climate change. One can also find fault with each candidate. A crucial assessment was made by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Recalling that a minimum of 80% below 2000 levels is required from the United States to limit the global temperature increase to 2°C, UCS argues that the Sanders-Boxer Bill achieves that, but not the McCainLieberman Bill.19 Notwithstanding this assessment, McCain has not sufficiently strengthened his proposals. In his defense, considering his party’s stance, this would probably be politically suicide at this stage, and one should not exclude his willingness to agree to a higher target if elected President. Albeit with shades of green, it appears overall that all three current US presidential hopefuls have relatively good credentials to fight climate change—especially if compared with former Republican candidates— and collaborate with the EU to negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto Treaty. Another question is whether Europe’s plans will measure up with the United States’.

13

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - Both Candidates Cap and Trade
Obama and McCain are committed to cap and trade. The Irish Times, 7/11/08, G8 and climate change, http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/0711/1215677267262.html [SD]
At the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali last December, delegates from more than 180 countries, rich and poor alike, committed themselves to negotiate a comprehensive global agreement on global warming in Copenhagen at the end of next year. Crucial talks to advance this goal will be held in the Polish city of Poznan this December, by which time George W Bush will be on the way out and the US will have a new president-elect. Encouragingly, both Barack Obama and John McCain are committed to dealing with climate change, including the introduction of a "cap and trade" regime aimed at cutting emissions in the US. Whether this commitment will survive in an era of recession and rising oil prices is a moot point, but at least the fact that oil is now more realistically priced to reflect its relative scarcity will spur the long-delayed advance of alternative energy technologies.

EU leaders expect McCain and Obama to participate in international cap and trade.
Patrick Wintour, political editor for The Guardian, 7/8/08, Clouds part slowly in climate change diplomacy, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jul/08/g8.climatechange [SD]
There is also an acceptance that there must be interim targets for emissions reductions, presumably for 2020, and an agreement that a new body may be needed to guide this process through the UN. The EU has already unilaterally targeted a 20% interim cut by 2020. This, in the sphere of international climate change diplomacy, represents progress, and sets the course for further talks through the UN leading to an agreement at Copenhagen at the end of next year on a precise deal designed to replace the Kyoto agreement that expires in 2012. Copenhagen has always been seen as the ultimate destination for these talks. But Gordon Brown, like every other European leader, has been waiting politely for George Bush to leave the international stage and allow either John McCain or Barack Obama to embrace deep carbon cuts by 2050, based on an international cap and trade scheme. In private he points out that he has spoken to both McCain and Obama about climate change, and both are committed to changing US policy. Obama favours an 80% cut in emissions by 2050 using a baseline of 1990, and McCain favours a 60% cut. Both favour an international cap and trade mechanism to achieve this. "Cap and trade is being implemented in Europe and they have stumbled and they've had problems but it is still the right thing to do," McCain has said. McCain is probably more pro-nuclear of the two, and Obama appears to have a more progressive view on biofuels,

14

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - Both Candidates Cap and Trade McCain will push for cap-and-trade regardless of political rewards
Stephen Boucher, consultant in the energy policy field, 4/2008, Clinton, Obama, McCain - Europe’s Best Hope for Fighting Climate Change, http://www.notre-europe.eu/uploads/tx_publication/Policypaper34-SBoucherClimateChange-en.pdf [SD]
For John McCain, “The issue of climate change is one of the most important issues facing our nation and the world today.“2 On the positive side, as previously mentioned, he can be credited for taking a bold step: co-authoring the first-ever Congress bill on climate change. In 2003, he and Senator Joe Lieberman introduced the “Climate Stewardship Act”, which called for a cap-and-trade system similar to Europe’s. It was defeated that same year, but the two congressmen reintroduced it in 2005, and again in 2007. He has also voted against drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, contrary to President George Bush’s desire and despite party pressure. As suggested by political commentator and senior staff writer at Grist.org David Roberts, “These aren’t chopped liver. All were acts of courage undertaken in a time of Republican majority, when they offered little political reward.” Relative to other Republican candidates, McCain is definitely good news for Europe and climate change. Other Republican hopefuls, such as Mitt Romney, only grudgingly acknowledged human influence on the climate and were very critical of McCain’s stance.

15

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - EU Expects US Climate Action
Europe is withholding boarder taxes because they expect that the United States will cap emission- new climate proposals will be used as an excuse for protectionism
James Kanter and Stephen Castle, January 22, 2008, International Herald Tribune, http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/01/22/us_warns_eu_on_using_climate_change_as_pretext/ BRUSSELS - The United States warned the European Union yesterday against using climate change as a pretext for protectionism, setting the stage for trans-Atlantic tension over a new package of EU measures to combat global warming. 'We have been dismayed . . . where we have seen the climate and the environment being used.' The pointed comments by the US trade representative, Susan Schwab, after talks in Brussels, came just two days before the European Commission introduced its proposals for cutting EU emissions at least 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. "We have been dismayed at a variety of suggestions where we have seen the climate and the environment being used as an excuse to close markets," Schwab said after discussions with Peter Mandelson, her European counterpart. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has called for a carbon tax on imports to ensure that European companies that need to comply with tough environmental rules are not undercut by foreign competitors whose governments are not capping carbon emissions. EU officials were not expected to propose such a measure tomorrow but were expected to keep alive the possibility of a so-called border tax to keep European industries competitive. The EU pledge to protect European industry by 2011 at the latest will be aimed at assuaging powerful lobby groups from sectors like steel and aluminum manufacturing, which say they are facing higher costs than their overseas competitors because of the EU's determination to lead the world in climate protection. Even so, EU officials hope to be able to avoid the issue, not least because any European border tax could be challenged at the World Trade Organization. Instead, EU officials hope that other developed countries like the United States, which did not sign the Kyoto climate treaty, will join an international treaty by the end of the decade, making protectionist measures unnecessary.

G-8 Predicts Bush to advocate climate control
Associated Press, 7/8/08, Bush, G-8 make progress on climate change, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iDhfdxlthyulzNbmR8KGjPKvNzaAD91PO3D00 [SD]
TOYAKO, Japan (AP) — President Bush and other world leaders made gradual progress Tuesday on climate change, but finalizing a long-term global agreement on what to do about the fevered planet remains elusive. Climate change, the focus of this year's meeting of industrialized nations, is just one on a long list of global issues — from Iran's nuclear weapons program to missile defense — that Bush is trying to push forward at the Group of Eight summit. With his popularity low at home and fewer than 200 days left in office, Bush is methodically promoting his issues, seemingly ready to accept incremental progress rather than pursuing eye-catching breakthroughs. The G-8 endorsed cutting global emissions of greenhouse gases by 50 percent by 2050 and called for emitters to set midterm reduction targets. The White House quickly hailed the G-8 declaration as a validation of Bush's approach. "This represents substantial progress from last year," said Dan Price, the president's deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs. Price said the G-8 acknowledged that it alone cannot effectively address climate change — that contributions from all major economies are required — a position Bush has argued repeatedly. Price also said the declaration struck here Tuesday reflects the sense the development and deployment of clean technologies in developing nations is crucial — another thing that Bush has been pushing. The president long has insisted that major emerging economies like China and India be included in any global plan to cut emissions. Bush scored a small victory in getting the other big-polluting major economy nations to agree to attend a meeting Wednesday on the sidelines of a summit. It's unclear, however, whether the heads of state at Wednesday's session will "finalize" a long-term goal for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, as Bush predicted back in September.

16

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - EU Expects US Climate Action EU wants the US to curb emissions regardless of other country’s policies.
James Kanter and Stephen Castle, staff writers, International Herald Tribune, 1/22/08, US warns EU on using climate change as pretext, http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/01/22/us_warns_eu_on_using_climate_change_as_pre text/ [SD]
EU officials say they are optimistic about a global climate accord after the recent meeting of nearly 200 nations in Bali, Indonesia, where agreement was reached on laying out a plan for negotiations that could produce a climate treaty by 2009. But the Bali Action Plan faces high hurdles, including the persistently thorny problem of convincing the United States to take action even if fastdeveloping countries like China, which insists on developments getting higher priority than emissions curbs, fail to make similar pledges.

Europe wants countries to curb emissions AND shift financial focus
Jennifer L Morgan, Director at Climate and Energy Security for Third Generation Environmentalism, 5/20/08, Clinton, Obama, McCain – Europe’s opportunity to shape a presidency, http://www.e3g.org/images/uploads/Reaction_E3G_Notre_Europe_Policy_Paper_34_US___EU_Climate_Chan ge.pdf [SD]
In order to assess “What Europe should do now”, we must have the ongoing international climate negotiations on a post-2012 agreement in mind. As Boucher notes, at the Bali meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (and its Kyoto Protocol), ministers launched a new round of negotiations scheduled to be completed in Copenhagen in December 2009. The core elements of these negotiations include what actions developed and developing countries will take to curb their emissions, advance technology innovation and cooperation, strengthen carbon markets, scale up adaptation and address the cross-cutting issue of finance.

Europe needs an engaged US government in order to be successful Jennifer L Morgan, Director at Climate and Energy Security for Third Generation Environmentalism, 5/20/08, Clinton, Obama, McCain – Europe’s opportunity to shape a presidency, http://www.e3g.org/images/uploads/Reaction_E3G_Notre_Europe_Policy_Paper_34_US___EU_Climate_Chan ge.pdf
The Bali Action Plan has, in a sense, left open a space for the US’ level of ambition to be negotiated under the UNFCCC to which it is a party, and noted that the commitment of the United States should be “comparable” with other industrialised countries. This question of comparability is nicely treated in Boucher’s analysis as it is quite clear that current US legislative proposals, while quite ambitious in the longer-term, are far away from the 25 to 40% range currently under negotiation. Europe must therefore engage the US Senate and the three candidates sooner rather than later to begin defining what a comparable effort might be. As Boucher notes, Europe will be in a far stronger position for this negotiation if it is able to complete its own legislative process on its target of 20% below 1990 by 2020 by the end of 2008 under the French Presidency.

17

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - EU Expects US Climate Action Europe wants countries to cap emissions or they will permit energy incentive exports.
Jennifer L Morgan, Director at Climate and Energy Security for Third Generation Environmentalism, 5/20/08, Clinton, Obama, McCain – Europe’s opportunity to shape a presidency, http://www.e3g.org/images/uploads/Reaction_E3G_Notre_Europe_Policy_Paper_34_US___EU_Climate_Chan ge.pdf [SD]
Recently, voices on both sides of the Atlantic have increasingly started to call for the use of trade sanctions as a tool to protect energyintensive industries and/or workers. There is still however a distinct difference in approach. While Europe is waiting to see the outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations before implementing any protective measures for energy-intensive industries, the Lieberman/Warner bill poses a more explicit threat to emerging economies (i.e. China). The bill sets out that these countries should take on a national cap by a certain date or accept an emissions permit levy on energy-intensive exports to the US. This provision ignores the responsibility of the US and other developed countries to cut their emissions further and faster than developing countries. It would antagonise developing countries, make it harder to get a deal at Copenhagen and help only a handful of industries (energy intensive goods account for just 3% of US imports from China). Far more effective would be for Europe to continue its more positive engagement with China to bring together the world’s largest single market with the world’s most dynamic economy in the pursuit of a combined transition to a low carbon economy. For example, next year the European Commission should decide to remove high tariffs on Chinese compact fluorescent lightbulbs so that European consumers can purchase cheap low carbon goods, and Chinese producers can see the benefit of producing them. Really making such low carbon markets function would create massive first-mover benefits for both economies, and would signal the way forward for a more positive and proactive engagement from US business interests. Climate Progress Preserving US-EU Co-operation Plain Dealer 6/17/’8 [Bush's farewell tour, ln] Even the protesters mostly stayed away - but not for the reason the president claimed: that they've lost interest because Iraq is going so well. Bush also ascribed his smooth sailing through the capitals of Europe to America's progress on climate change policy. That, his aides suggested, has led to a new amity between his administration and old Europe. Such amity is important. It preserves the allimportant united front between Europe and the United States on the tricky question of how much pressure to put on Tehran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions. Bush is Percieved as Moving Towards Europe on Climate Chicago Tribune 6/15/’8 [With Bush near exit, Europe's ire softens, ln] Even the tone has changed. In an interview with the Times of London, the president was applauded for adopting language "much less jarring, more conciliatory than it once was." "His humor is self-deprecating," the paper said. This is a marked change from the characterizations that had become so familiar. The "Toxic Texan" with his "cowboy diplomacy" seems to many over here a distant memory. And on his last trip to Europe, Bush might just have achieved something that had hitherto eluded him. With his newfound support for climate-change policy, his emphasis on a multilateral approach to Iran and his commitment, however belated, to engagement with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Bush comes across as being constructive: a man to do business with. He looks like a statesman.

18

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - EU Liberalizing Trade - Climate
The EU Is Support Trade Relations By Liberalizing Climate Barriers Meena Raman and Charly Poppe, Secretary General, Friends of the Earth Malaysia & Chair - Friends of the Earth International, and Trade Programme Coordinator, Friends of the Earth Europe, 1/2008 Climate Change and International Trade: The Need for a Paradigm Shift," http://www.foeeurope.org/publications/2008/trade_climate_jan08_en.pdf [SD]
The “trade & climate change” debate started in Europe in 2006 when some very different stakeholders argued for the establishment of a “Kyoto tariff” at the EU border, both on competitiveness and moral grounds. Since then, the EU Trade Commissioner ruled out the proposal as “bad politics” and much of the climate & trade debate has been focussed on the “mutual supportiveness” of the trade and climate regimes. It has been emphasized how the liberalisation of “environmental goods and services” and “green technologies” could play a role in climate mitigation and adaptation. It has also been argued that the liberalisation of energy resources will bring more energy security more efficiency, and the necessary stimulus for the development of the renewable energy market. Strong pressures have also been made for the liberalisation of agrofuels as a means for cutting carbon emissions from transport (although this idea has suffered from major setbacks in the last months). In the same vein, the old theory that trade liberalisation leads to growth which leads to increased welfare and in turn, to more environmental consciousness and, ultimately, to environmental policies, is making its comeback, although it has proven to be fallacious and factually wrong3. So let us leave theory and the good thoughts about “mutual supportiveness” aside for a moment, and talk about the real crunching issues. Let us face it: policy-making is rarely coherent, and there are a number of potential or existing tensions and conflicts between climate and trade policies. Trade and Climate: Tensions and Conflicts To begin with, we would like to emphasize that in Friends of the Earth’s view, the current trading system and the push for liberalisation is a “driver” of climate change. The dominant trading system, and its emphasis on the ‘free market’, promotes a model of development based on unsustainable patterns of production and consumption dependent on a fossil fuel-based economy. The model is premised on unfettered growth and consumption, including growth of exports and imports, and the deregulation of markets, where nature has no limits and pollution costs are externalised. While scarce resources are used to feed the greed of a few rich, the poor majority is denied a decent standard of living. By the same token, the rich have emitted so much of greenhouse gases (GHG) already to feed their irrational wants that the poor who are least responsible for climate change have to pay the price in terms of climate catastrophes. The EU is a frontrunner in global climate negotiations; this should be acknowledged. In the last few years, the EU (comparing to other governments) has committed itself to strong and binding GHG reductions targets, setting a positive trend for other nations and giving positive market signals. Yet many other EU policies are undermining these efforts. What are these contradictions? “Global Europe” is the new framework for the EU’s trade policy. The Global Europe strategy is placing “competitiveness” and market access above all other concerns. Global Europe is fundamentally a pro-deregulation and market-opening approach. With its push for eliminating ‘non-tariff barriers’ and particularly export taxes, the EU is threatening to undermine or chill any domestic legislation, measure or standard that intends to mitigate or prevent climate change (for instance: subsidies to renewable energy programmes, energy efficiency standards, export restrictions on ‘climate-sensitive’ products such as illegal timber, etc.). This is not only jeopardizing climate policies but also undermining the ‘development space’ of poor countries.

19

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - EU Liberalizing Trade - Climate
EU is considering carbon taxes now

Business Week, 1/8/08, EU Ponders Carbon Tariff on Imports, http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jan2008/gb2008018_121679.htm? chan=search [SD]
Brussels considers a policy to charge companies that import goods into Europe for the CO2 they emitted during production European Union leaders strive to portray themselves as being on the front line of global efforts to combat climate change. They boast that the EU has agreed to cut emissions 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, well beyond the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. And both the United Kingdom and Germany recently announced plans to expand their commitment to renewable energy. Their strategy, it seemed, was to lead by example. But they appear to be considering less subtle tactics. The European Commission is considering a carbon tariff on goods from countries where greenhouse gas emission policies do not match European standards. The tariff system would force companies that import products into Europe to buy EU carbon emissions permits through the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) -- the ETS already obliges European firms to buy and sell excess carbon dioxide emissions, thereby creating a continental cap on carbon dioxide emissions. Some EU officials have publicly opposed the proposed tariff. European Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson told Reuters that such a scheme would be hard to implement and could lead to trade disputes. A spokesperson for the European Commission's secretary of environment, reached by SPIEGEL ONLINE, confirmed that the tariff is under discussion but declined to comment further. The proposed tariff is one facet of a larger debate on emissions control policies that will govern Europe after current regulations expire in 2012. A package of climate policy proposals is due to be published by the commission later this month. France, in particular, is a supporter of the potential tariff. Both former president Jacques Chirac and current president Nicolas Sarkozy have warned that overly strict emissions regulations could hobble the competitiveness of European countries. In October, Sarkozy urged European leaders to "examine the option of taxing products imported from countries that do not respect the Kyoto Protocol."

20

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique: AT: No Regulations
We Control the Uniqueness Trend - Bush’s Moves Have been Towards Regulation MSNBC ‘7 [Oct 4, U.S. official: CO2 regulation likely, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21135556/] The United States is moving toward the regulation of carbon emissions, a U.S. energy official said Thursday, even though the Bush administration adheres to a voluntary approach to controlling the primary gas blamed for climate change. "There will be carbon regulation of some sort," said Dan Arvizu, director of the National Renewable Energy Lab, speaking a week after he briefed President Bush's global warming conference in Washington. "I am neutral as to which kind of carbon management regulation there will be. It is very clear to me that there will be carbon management, whether it will be a direct tax, carbon cap-and-trade or some other instrument," Arvizu told an international conference on the next generation of biofuels. Arvizu did not say he was speaking for the administration. But some of his listeners thought it was significant that he spoke after the Washington meeting that brought the United States together with leading industrial nations which have embraced stringent mandatory controls and with developing countries like India, China and Brazil which are totally unregulated. "He's picking up the vibe" in Washington, said Patrick Mazza, chairman of the biofuel conference and research director of Climate Solutions based in Seattle. Arvizu later told The Associated Press the United States "is headed in a different direction than we were a few years ago." He said executives of utility companies and U.S. oil giants — two lobbies that had resisted regulation — now want predictable and transparent carbon policies. "Certainly my reference point has changed dramatically," he said. "The position of this administration is beginning to evolve." In his speech to the Washington conference, Bush reiterated his view that each nation should set targets for itself and decide how it will combat global warming without hindering economic growth. But Arvizu said that, while Bush remained in favor of voluntary targets, his position is not as rigid as it once was, and he made a point of telling the Washington meeting that he has accepted a mandatory renewable fuel standard for vehicles. U.S. is Determening its Approach to C02 Regulations - 2008 Will be the Determening Year Fox News 5/14/’7 [Bush Orders Regulations to Cut Carbon Emissions in Response to High Court Ruling, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,272078,00.html] President Bush on Monday ordered his cabinet members to begin drafting rules that will comply with recent a Supreme Court decision combating greenhouse gases as well as meet his call to begin replacing gasoline with alternative fuels. "We're taking action by taking the first step towards rules that will make our economy stronger, our environment cleaner and our nation more secure for generations to come," Bush said, addressing reporters in the Rose Garden. Bush said he ordered his cabinet members to finish the process by the end of 2008. While the regulations he called for can be implemented by the executive branch, Bush added that Congress could make even more of a
difference. "With good legislation, we could save up to 8.5 billion gallons of gasoline per year by 2017 and further reduce greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks," Bush said. Bush said he signed an executive order Monday directing the EPA and the Energy, Transportation and Agriculture departments to work with White House staff and Congress to develop regulations that will meet the needs of the ruling in Massachusetts v. EPA by using Bush's "20 in 10" plan to reduce gasoline consumption by 20 percent by 2017 as a starting point. The 20 in 10 plan focuses on reducing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards — the average fuel economy standards for autos and light trucks — as well as reducing gasoline consumption by boosting alternative fuel consumption to 35 billion gallons by 2017. The White House is hoping for a bipartisan accord to make way for broader, more effective changes. "This is a proposal that seems to give both parties what they say they want in terms of pursuing energy independence and at the same time pursuing a cleaner environment," White House press secretary Tony Snow said earlier Monday. "So there ought to be a pretty good bipartisan basis for passing such legislation. We'll continue to work it." Last month in a 5-4 decision the Supreme Court ruled carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases qualify as air pollutants under the Clean Air Act and can be regulated by the EPA, which the administration had fought. The court also said the reasons the administration had given for declining to regulate greenhouse gases are insufficient, and that the agency must regulate carbon dioxide, the leading gas linked to global warming, if it finds that it endangers public health. Bush has said

that he recognized the serious environmental problems created by such emissions and other so-called greenhouse gases. But he has urged against anything other than a voluntary approach to curbing emissions, saying regulations could undercut economic activity. The president also says he will accept no global deal on greenhouse gases without the participation of China, India and other highpolluting, developing nations. Since taking control of Congress in January, Democrats have held a number of hearings exploring the consequences of climate change and have been pressuring the administration to say when it will comply with the high court's ruling and decide whether to regulate carbon dioxide. The environmental group Environmental Defense said the effort "will fall far short of fixing the climate problem" without mandatory caps on carbon emissions. "Whether EPA will lead the fight against global warming or lead us to a hotter planet remains to be seen," said Environmental Defense President Fred Krupp. "It's time for this administration to join with the mainstream of American businesses and support a cap on carbon."

21

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique: AT: Incentives Now
New “Funding Alternatives” to Carbon Regulations Will Be Blocked EnergyWashington Week 6/18/’8 [Environmentalists Blast Pending Bush Request For Clean-Energy Fund, ln] Environmentalists are criticizing a Bush administration proposal to create a $10 billion international "Clean Technology Fund" to be administered by the World Bank, arguing the fund would subsidize the construction of coal plants and other projects in the developing world that could undermine efforts to mitigate climate change. The criticisms might deal a heavy blow to what could be one of the Bush administration's final initiatives for a technology-based response to climate change as an alternative to emission-reduction mandates. Announced by President Bush last September, the proposed technology fund seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the developing
world by retrofitting existing energy infrastructure, promoting efficiency improvements, and financing new, "clean" power generation. The Bush administration has pledged $2 billion over the first three years of the fund and is currently requesting that Congress appropriate $400 million for fiscal year 2009. Another $8 billion is expected to be contributed by other developed nations, including Britain and Japan. But a "fact sheet" released by Friends of the Earth and the environmental group Oil Change International charges that the fund could actually fuel global warming rather than mitigate it. In fact, the groups argue "The 'Slightly Less Dirty' Technology Fund" could "potentially be used to fund massive coal projects that are only somewhat less polluting than the dirtiest existing projects," including funds "to prepare for 'carbon capture and storage,' a technology which doesn't even exist yet." At a June 5 hearing on the fund held by the House Financial Services Committee's monetary policy and

technology subcommittee, which is required to authorize World Bank-related funding, Friends of the Earth President Brent Blackwelder criticized the lack of clarity regarding what technologies would qualify as either "clean" or "lowcarbon" under the fund.
Blackwelder also singled out the World Bank's willingness to fund projects aimed at promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) "readiness," arguing that, "Using public money for coal and CCS may boost companies that make coal plant equipment, but it cannot be considered part of the solution for the climate crisis." In his written testimony, Blackwelder suggested "there should be a certification requirement to ensure that none of the funds have been used for coal, oil, gas or nuclear projects." A senior official with the World Bank's environmental department says the technology fund will likely include significant investments in coal as part of a "diverse and balanced portfolio" that meets the energy needs of developing countries. "Obviously, there will be a strong preference for the most cost-effective interventions," the official notes, though all projects would need to be desired by the host countries and lead to "significant greenhouse gas reductions." "Yes, there might be greater [emissions] savings if you went to wind or solar, but at what cost?" the source asks. The World Bank would also consider funding integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) coal plants that have the capacity to add CCS "at a future time," as well as commercial-scale demonstration projects of CCS technology. Most analysts estimate that CCS is, at best, more than a decade away from commercial availability, with officials for some electric utilities suggesting it could be as much 40 years away. A World Bank document from April laying out the scope of the fund states, "Recognizing that coal is forecast to remain an important component of global energy use for the next 30-50 years, the coal-fired projects would be supported where they are least cost." That language is absent from the final, June 9 "scoping" document, though that document nonetheless endorses "adopting best available coal technologies with substantial improvements in energy efficiency and readiness for implementation of carbon capture and storage." In contrast, a statement of principles for a prospective clean technology fund distributed by Friends of the Earth calls for investing in "the full range of existing solar, wind, hydropower below ten megawatts, and geothermal energy supply technologies," while funds "should not be used to make conventional high emission projects marginally or incrementally cleaner." The money should also be distributed through the United Nations and not the World Bank so as to provide developing countries more say in how funds are dispersed, the group argues. At the June 5 hearing, Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) noted that "historically, the World Bank has not been seen as an institution friendly to environmental concerns." In March, the Institute for Policy Studies issued a report, World Bank: Climate Profiteer, charging that the Bank's climate change programs, such as the "Clean Development Mechanism," frequently benefited corporate interests through projects of dubious environmental merit.

Frank said concerns about the World Bank's environmental record were "well grounded in history" and "not paranoia." He suggested that he would likely support authorizing the clean technology fund for no more than a one year "trial period," before adding that, if faced with a "budget crunch," he would recommend the fund be the first program to be axed. The fund requires approval from both the Financial Services Committee and the Appropriations Committee's foreign operations subcommittee. Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) questioned where Congress would find the money for a $2 billion technology fund amid rising deficits, as well as the wisdom of
expecting the World Bank, rather than market forces, to determine how to best invest money in carbon-reducing technologies. "It's sort of like politicians deciding, well, the very best way to develop ethanol is to subsidize farmers and prohibit people from raising hemp, and, you know, hemp is so much better" from an environmental perspective, said Paul, the subcommittee's ranking Republican. Subcommittee Chairman Luis

Gutierrez (D-IL), in questioning State Department Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick, also noted the concerns of some environmentalists regarding the lack of a "clean technology" definition, and inquired as to whether the fund would end
up financing "super-critical coal plants." In response, McCormick said coal projects "would be considered," but that he didn't expect them to make up a "significant portion" of the fund's investments. However, he then argued that certain countries were going to go ahead with coal plants "with or without our support, and we think there may be cases that do in fact justify the deployment of the cleanest available coal technology possible." Later in the hearing, McCormick maintained that the fund was "not meant to finance the development of new technologies, but rather the deployment of existing technologies."

22

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique: AT: Incentives Now
Reduction in R&D subsidies Andreas Tjernshaugen , @ Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, ‘5 [CICERO Policy Note 2005:01, United States participation in future climate agreements, http://www.cicero.uio.no/media/3312.pdf] Fifth, the Kyoto parties should consider in which climate-relevant fields other than actual emissions regulation they might usefully cooperate with the Americans on the short term. The obvious answer is science and technology. The knowledge and shared understanding built through cooperation in scientific research, monitoring and assessment of climate change is a crucial foundation for climate policy and should be given a high priority. As discussed in section 1 above, technology research, development and demonstration is the area of climate policy where the potential for cooperation with the United States currently looks best. Both the United States and European countries could usefully increase their efforts in this field. Given the discrepancy between projected energy supply and demand and what would be needed to keep global warming in check, governments worldwide spend remarkably little money on energy research and development. From the mid 1980s to the late 1990s – the very period that the global warming problem was taken up by political bodies – spending on energy R&D was in fact considerably reduced (Dooley et al. 1998; Dooley and Runci 1999). One proposed remedy is to negotiate a “R&D protocol” to the UNFCCC, where countries commit to specific levels of funding for collaborative research and development on cleaner energy technologies (Barret 2003). It is, however, not clear that such a formal agreement is necessary to promote R&D spending. Since just nine OECD countries account for 95 percent of the world’s investments in energy research and development (Dooley et al. 1998), negotiations involving all UN members may not be the most effective approach. Congress Pushing to Cut Climate Tech CRS ‘7 [February 8, Congressional Research Service, Climate change and Environmental policy, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Global_Climate_Change:_Major_Scientific_and_Policy_Issues] Two issues of concern to Congress are the extent to which spending for the CCRI and CCTP represents new money, versus how much is attributable to the reclassification of ongoing research and technology programs, and whether reduced funding in some cases, or virtually level funding in most other cases, might be deemed necessary or sufficient to accomplish the work of the CCSP and the CCTP. Five reports currently serve as guidance documents for CCSP and CCTP activities. The Administration released a Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan on July 24, 2003. The plan included five major research goals and dozens of specific research targets as well as 23 written synthesis and assessment products with deadlines. The National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences conducted an independent review of the CCSP Strategic Plan and in April 2004 published its overall assessment in a 51-page report, Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic
Plan. To complement the CCSP Strategic Plan, the Department of Energy has released four guidance documents for Climate Change Technology Program activities: Results of a Technical Review of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program’s R&D Portfolio (May 2006), Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan Public Review Draft (January 2006), U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Technology Options for the Near and Long Term (September 2005), and U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Vision and Framework for Strategy and Planning (August 2005). Release by the CCTP of the completed final Strategic Plan on Climate Change Technology is expected late in 2006.

23

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique: AT: Incentives Now
Congress Cutting Renewable Incentives Rob Varon, @ Connecticut Post Online, 6/18/’8 [GE seeks renewable energy support, ln] General Electric Co. executives and spokespeople said Wednesday another congressional failure to extend a tax credit for renewable energy projects could put billions of dollars worth of future wind farms in jeopardy. Steve Taub, a senior vice president of GE Energy Financial Services, said in a report Wednesday Congress' failure to create a stable tax policy for renewable energy has resulted in a pogo-stick-like pattern of capacity expansion and retraction. The federal production tax credit (PTC) for solar, wind and other renewable power projects is set to expire on Dec. 31. It is indexed to inflation, so owners of wind farms receive a tax credit of 2.1 cents per kilowatt hour for the first 10 years of operation. The PTC was first instituted in 1992 to help encourage renewable energy sources and reduce pollution. Taub's report showed when the production tax credit granted to wind projects was in effect capacity climbed in 1999 before dropping 90 percent in 2000, when it was unclear if Congress would renew it. The PTC has lapsed three times since its inception: 1999, 2001 and 2003. But it has been available every year since 2005. A concern among some in Congress is the need to generate revenue, but Taub said in his report there is a net revenue gain from taxes on the projects' income and suppliers to the projects and payroll taxes that makes up for the tax credit. Despite making billions on wind turbine and wind farm deals, GE executives and spokespeople said the technology still needs subsidies to compete against established energy technologies, like natural gas and coal.

24

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Unique - AT: BioFuel Subsides
Biofuel Subsides Irrelevent - Cutting Them Inside U.S. Trade 5/13/’8 [EU Decides To Launch Investigation Into U.S. Biodiesel Subsidies, ln] The U.S. grants income tax and excise tax credits for biodiesel used in the U.S. and exported to the EU. The EU grants tax credits to all biodiesel used in the EU but does not grant credits to exports. As a result, U.S. biodiesel used in the EU can receive credits from the U.S. as well as the EU, putting European manufacturers at a disadvantage. The biodiesel tax credits are in place until the end of 2008. An early version of the newly enacted farm bill included an extension of this sunset, but the extension was removed in the final version. Congress Will Cut the Biofuel Subsidies in Question William LaJeunesse, @ Fox News, 6/13/8 ['Splash and Dash' Biofuel Scam Costs Americans Millions, Lawmakers Say, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,369495,00.html] A lawmaker says U.S. taxpayers are being bilked to the tune of millions of dollars by a biofuel subsidy that helps to lower gas prices in Europe, and he's leading the charge to close the apparent loophole. “In 2007 this subsidy cost the American taxpayer $300 million, and it’s projected to cost the American taxpayers $600 million next year,” said Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz. • Click here to view video. The scam — as Shadegg and others call it — is known as “splash and dash.” It stems from an existing $1 subsidy for every gallon of biodiesel fuel blended with regular diesel in the United States. Here’s how it works: Biodiesel is produced abroad using South American sugar cane or Asian palm oil and shipped to the United States, where it’s blended with just a “splash” of regular diesel. A typical tanker-load of about 9 million gallons of biodiesel requires just 9,000 gallons of American diesel to make it qualify for the subsidy. But every gallon in the shipment garners a buck. The ship then makes a “dash” for Europe, where its fuel is sold below market rates. That means each tanker-load that makes the dash nets importers about $9 million dollars in tax credits from the IRS. Lawmakers have estimated its cost to Americans at tens — or even hundreds — of millions each year. And while Congress and the National Biodiesel Board say they know the loophole is being exploited — as America is exporting much more biofuel than it's producing — they’ve been unable to identify the guilty companies. “Ultimately when you dig down it gets to the point that you would have to have access to IRS information,” said Manning Feraci, vice president of federal affairs at the National Biodiesel Board. “Taxpayer information is confidential, so we can’t have access to it.” “We really haven’t found out the names of the companies who are profiting from it,” Shadegg told FOX News. “I think the bad actors are the members of Congress who are allowing this to happen.” Shadegg wants to end “splash and dash” by eliminating the subsidy for any biodiesel exported from the United States, which he says harms energy independence. Shadegg is pushing his bill in the House, which has already passed measures

25

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

AT: Iraq killed US-EU trade
Political problems like Iraq haven’t affected trade Gregory Shaffer, the Wing-Tat Lee Chair of International Law at Loyola University Chicago, and Mark Pollack, 2006, The
Future of Transatlantic Economic Relations: Continuity Amid Discord, Introduction: The Future of Transatlantic Economic Relations: Continuity Amid Discord, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID953958_code347008.pdf? abstractid=953958&mirid=5 We highlight three primary findings that emerge from the chapters. First, despite the concerns, transatlantic foreign policy rifts did not spill over into the economic realm or trigger economic backlash of any significance. Rather, the bulk of the evidence presented in this volume points to the continuity in the transatlantic economic relationship and the resilience of the transatlantic economic marketplace in a period of political turmoil. As Joseph Quinlan and Daniel Hamilton show in chapter 2, transatlantic trade and foreign direct investment have actually flourished in recent years, notwithstanding the bitter conflict over Iraq. As they conclude, “No other commercial artery in the world is as integrated and fused together by foreign investment, a fact lost on many pundits, parliamentarians and policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic.”

26

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Links

27

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Extension - Generic Link
The Affs Perception That the US is Moving From Cap and Trade Collapse Relations
William A. Nitze President, Gemstar Group, summer 2001, Beyond Kyoto: a Plan to Bridge the U.S.-EU Gap, European affairs, [adit] A U.S. alternative to Kyoto should be built around a domestic "cap and trade" proposal that combines a more realistic and politically acceptable short-term emissions reduction target with a commitment to achieve more far-reaching reductions in the longer term. The proposed system should include all greenhouse gases so as to reduce its overall cost, be supplemented by other market friendly policies and mechanisms, and maintain a level playing field among established and new energy supply technologies and investments in energy efficiency. If Mr. Bush were to propose such an alternative, the United States and Europe could close the gap between them by agreeing on a combination of more far-reaching environmental goals, market-based policies for achieving these goals, and a common approach for encouraging deployment of environmentally friendly technologies. Agreement on more far-reaching environmental goals is the element that poses the greatest challenge to the Bush administration. By rejecting the Kyoto Protocol without proposing an alternative, Mr. Bush has left open the possibility that he does not support any binding target for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and proposes to rely solely on business-as-usual technological change and voluntary programs. If the administration did formally adopt such a position, it would isolate the United States in the climate change issue and place a significant strain on its overall relationship with the European Union. Failure to make enormous emission cuts now guarantees sanctions to protect industry Seattle pi, 3/14/08, EU leaders urge trade sanctions on U.S., China http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/355174_eusummit15.html [adit] European Union leaders threatened the United States and China with trade sanctions Friday if the world's two biggest polluters don't commit to ambitious cuts in greenhouse gases by next year. The warning came as the economic downturn focused European leaders on the impact on industry of their groundbreaking agreement last year to cut carbon emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. EU leaders want similar commitments from other major economies by next year, when a conference on global warming will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark. Otherwise, they say European companies will need protection from unfair competition from heavily polluting rivals in China and the United States -- the world's biggest emitters of carbon dioxide. In a declaration issued after a two-day summit, the 27 EU leaders warned: "If international negotiations fail, appropriate measures can be taken" to protect European industry.

28

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Extension - general Links
The Aff Creates The Perception that the US is Shifting Towards Voluntary Incentives, Ensuring European Tarrifs on the US Thomas L. Brewer, Associate Professor at Georgetown University, Washington, DC and Associate Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), June '8 [The Trade and Climate Change Joint Agenda CEPS Working Document No. 295/June 2008, http://shop.ceps.eu/downfree.php?item_id=1673.]
Issues have arisen about whether provisions in the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Act of 2007 are compatible with the WTO plurilateral Government Procurement Agreement (GPA), to which the US is a signatory (NFTC, 2007, pp. 14-17). A key issue is whether provisions such as those requiring US

government agencies to purchase ‘low greenhouse gas emitting’ vehicles and to take into account energy efficiency standards in their purchasing decisions could violate WTO non-discrimination principles or constitute disguised protectionism. There are several reasons to
believe there would not be such problems. In particular Article XXIII of the GPA, like Article XX of the GATT, allows exceptions to national treatment on the grounds of protection of “human, animal, or plant life….” The conclusion of the NFTC was that the provisions of the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Act “do not appear to be in violation” of the GPA. However, it also noted that “government procurement program specifications are more likely to qualify for GPA exceptions if governments demonstrate their intent to engage multilaterally” (NFTC, 2007, p. 17). As for other countries, since only 12 countries plus the EU are signatories to the GPA, its provisions are irrelevant to most countries. Yet, since the signatories do include for instance major trading countries - China, the EU and Japan, in particular there could be GPA-related issues that arise. An extensive analysis by Van Asselt, van der Grijp and Oosterhuis (2006) examines a variety of issues about the intersection of climate-trade issues in relation to the GPA. 3. Sectoral Issues: International Aviation and Maritime Shipping The international aviation and maritime shipping industries present quite different kinds of issues for the joint climate-trade agenda – for two reasons. First, there are already disputes involving both industries because of their greenhouse gas emissions – an international aviation dispute that has entered onto the agenda of US-EU relations and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and domestic legal actions within the US that target both the international aviation and maritime shipping industries. Second, the two industries have always been outside the multilateral climate regime and the multilateral trade regime. Among the key issues, therefore, are whether, when, and how they can be or should be brought into either or both of the two multilateral regimes. These two sets of issues – concerning disputes and concerning their positions outside the multilateral regimes – are considered in turn. 3.1 International and Domestic Disputes The first international trade-climate dispute has already begun, at least informally - namely the US government’s objections to the EU plan to cover aviation in its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). It is important to note that this is not a formal dispute brought within the context of the WTO dispute settlement process. Rather, the basis of the US objection is the Chicago Convention on Civil Aviation of 1944, which established the system of bi-lateral agreements that regulate airline services and which is administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). At issue, in part, is Article 15 which includes the following provision: “No fees, dues or other charges shall be imposed by any contracting State in respect solely of the right of transit over or entry into or exit from its territory of any aircraft of a contracting State or persons or property thereon” (Chicago Convention, 1944). 8 US, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Liechtenstein, Norway, Singapore, and Switzerland. THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE JOINT AGENDA | 7 While the Office of the US Trade Representative has not made a formal public statement on the issue, the US Federal Aviation Administration, the US Ambassador to the EU, and a representative of the US airline industry association have been vocal about the issue. An unnamed US government representative said the EU had decided to go ahead with the plan “despite strong objections raised by the US” (Financial Times, 2006d; also see ICTSD Bridges, 2007). A statement by the US Ambassador to the EU, Boyden Gray, in September 2007, was particularly direct: “We don’t think Europe has the authority to do it….The Europeans are confident of their legal authority and people on the other side are equally confident of their position. It sounds like a lawsuit to me. I don’t see how it’s going to get resolved politically” (International Herald Tribune, 2007). A representative of the Air Transport Association of America similarly observed “If [the Europeans] persist, there will no doubt be a legal battle” (ICTSD Bridges, 2007); this comment followed a meeting of the ICAO in October 2007. The meeting reversed a 2004 resolution that had supported regional emissions trading schemes. As a result, at the 2007 meeting 42 countries represented by the EU and the European Civil Aviation Conference formally stated a ‘reservation’ to indicate that they would go ahead with the plan to include aviation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Whether it can be resolved politically remains to be seen. Importantly, the application of the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme to the aviation industry would not come into force until 2010, 2011 or possibly even later, with international flights into and out of the EU possibly not included until a year after the initiation of the system for flights within the EU. This would mean transatlantic flights involving the US would not be included until 2011 or 2012, long after a new US administration is in office. (For more on the case, see Council on Foreign Relations, 2007; Eurarchiv, 2007; Financial Times, 2006a, 2006b, 2006, 2006d, 2007a, 2007b; US Mission to the EU, 2007). There have also been legal cases within the US concerning the greenhouse gas emissions of both the international aviation industry and maritime shipping industry. Two separate but closelyrelated petitions were filed with the US national government’s EPA in October 2007. One concerning aviation was filed by the states of California, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, the cities of New York and Washington, DC, a regional air quality district in California, and several environmental organisations. On the basis of a Supreme Court decision that requires the EPA to consider carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as air pollutants, the petition asks the EPA to apply

29

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Extension - general Links
regulations to all planes, including those of foreign airlines, that land or take off from airports in the US - regulations that would reduce emissions through greater fuel efficiency, improved aircraft designs, and cleaner fuels. A similar petition concerning international maritime shipping was filed at the same time (ICTSD, Bridges BioRes, 2007c, 2007d). 3.2 Coverage of the Multilateral Climate and Trade Regimes Perhaps most importantly for the place of the international aviation and maritime shipping industries in the future climate change regime is the decision by the government of Norway to take a leadership role in an effort to include both industries in a the post-2012 climate regime. That effort has included an international workshop on the issue just prior to the Bali conference (IISD, 2007; Norway, 2007). Since before the UNFCCC entered into force, there has been concern about the increasing contributions of GHGs of the two industries, and in fact in recent years the emissions of the two industries have been increasing as fast as or faster than any other sectors. From 1990 to 2004, international aviation emissions increased by 34% and international maritime emissions increased by 43%. In recent years, aviation emissions have accounted for about 2% of total world GHG emissions and international maritime shipping has accounted for about 3%. The 5% 8 | THOMAS L. BREWER of the world total for the combination of the two industries places them ahead of all but 5 national economies.9 However, technical problems with measuring their emissions and allocating them between domestic and international trips, together with political obstacles, prevented the industries’ emissions from being included in Kyoto Protocol targets. Further, in the national government and thus UNFCCC greenhouse gas reporting systems, the bunker fuels used for aviation and shipping are not included as national emissions, but rather are reported separately as international emissions that are not associated with any particular country. Efforts to address the technical problems and formulate industry emission targets were referred to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Many of the technical problems have since been solved. For instance, the government of Switzerland has reported that it has a “database with information on 16,000 individual aircraft and 400 different types of engines” and “knows the exact split between domestic and international aviation emissions” (IISD, 2007, p. 4). As the perception has grown that efforts to establish industry emission targets and other tangible evidence of progress in the addressing the problem have not materialised, efforts outside the UNFCCC framework and outside the two industry-based international organisations have been gaining momentum (IISD, 2007; Norway, 2007). The increasing interest in global sector-specific agreements as part of the post-2012 multilateral climate regime could facilitate inclusion of both industries in the new climate regime. The two industries have not only been outside the multilateral climate regime; they have also been outside the multilateral trade regime. Government trade policies and industry practices have been considered within the context of the ICAO and IMO. International trade in both of their services has been subject to a combination of national subsidies, national protectionist policies such as those that prevent ‘cabotage’ within countries by foreign firms, and international agreements that have limited competition among carriers. Although the privatisation and deregulation policies of many governments and the renegotiation of international agreements, especially in the airline industry, have reduced the subsidy and protection programmes, international competition in both industries is still relatively constrained by national and international trade policies (again outside the WTO in both industries).10 4. Offsetting Border Measures that Address Free Rider, Carbon Leakage, and International Competitiveness Concerns Among the climate-trade issues that have emerged to date, one of the most

contentious concerns the possible use of offsetting border measures to reduce free rider, carbon leakage and international competitiveness problems. The underlying problem in the terminology of political economy is that there can be ‘free riders’ on international agreements, in this case multilateral climate change agreements. The problem, in short, is that any given country can benefit from uch an agreement without incurring the costs of participating in it. Moreover, the regime can be undermined by the ‘leakage’ of emissions, as production increases in countries that are not party to the climate regime. Further, firms may fear that their international competitive position is being undermined by lower energy prices in non-participating countries. In the US, these issues have become salient in regard to emerging economy countries (especially Brazil, China, and India). In the EU, the issues have arisen from time to time during the past several years in regard to US non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol. The emphasis in the public discussions within the EU was initially on the possible imposition of offsetting tariffs, though the European Parliament’s resolution (2005/2049) uses the generic term “border adjustment measures.” 12 The European Commission’s reaction to these measures was initially to oppose them on the grounds that they risked exacerbating trade relations with the US, particularly at a time when trade relations were already strained and when transatlantic relations more generally were unusually conflicted over a broad range of issues. In addition, there have been concerns that such a measure would undermine support in the US among those political and business circles that have been hoping for increased EU-US cooperation on climate change issues. There have also been concerns that such a
tariff might be challenged in a WTO dispute settlement case, and the outcome of such a case would inevitably be uncertain. However, before leaving office in 2007, French President Chirac and Prime Minister de Villepin suggested again that such measures be undertaken, and President Sarkozy subsequently expressed interest in the idea soon after his election. In November 2007 – in advance of the Bali climate change conference – the issue was again the subject of attention within the Commission and Parliament, and among industry and environmental groups. EU Enterprise Commissioner Günter Verheugen suggested that the Commission was more favourably inclined to address the issue through sectoral agreements, including perhaps voluntary global industry agreements - a position that has been supported by at least some industry and environmental organisations (see especially, Financial Times, 2007; and EurActiv, 2007b). However, just before and after the release of the Commission’s proposals for the extension of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on 23 January 2008, there was a specific and salient resurgence of interest. Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso explicitly mentioned the possibility in a speech (European Commission, 2008a). The possibility of such action is left open for

future consideration, as is the possibility of granting all allowances free to energy- intensive industries (ICTSD, 2008a). The focus of discussion, however, has shifted away from tariffs to importers’ purchases of emission credits.

30

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link-- environmental policy
Adaptation of new environmental policy causes Europe to raise tariffs
Joseph E. Aldy et al. (John Ashton, Richard Baron, Daniel Bodansky, Steve Charnovitz, Elliot Diringer, Thomas C. Heller, Jonathan Pershing, P.R. Shukla, Laurence Tubiana, Fernando Tudela, Xueman Wang), 02, Beyond Kyoto, advancing the international effort against climate change, PEW center for global climate change, http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Trade%20and%20Climate.pdf [Barber] Just as trade policy will have climate effects, climate policy will have significant implications for trade relations and for the trade regime (Gibbs 2003, pp. 16–17). By raising the cost of energy and energy-intensive goods, climate policies will affect economic competitiveness—both among countries undertaking climate efforts, due to different mitigation costs, and between those countries that undertake significant action and those that do not. To protect vulnerable sectors, governments may seek to compensate Trade and climate Potential conflicts and synergies Trade and climate Potential conflicts and synergies for the costs of domestic climate action by imposing comparable costs on imported products or by reducing costs on exported products. Either approach is likely to invite challenge in the WTO. Apart from efforts to address competitiveness, national policies to reduce GHG emissions may also come into conflict with trade rules to the extent they affect domestic and imported products differently. In an acknowledgement of these possibilities, Article 2.3 of the Kyoto Protocol states that the parties shall strive to implement policies and measures in such a way as to minimize adverse effects, including effects on internationaltrade.1Moreover, the Protocol authorizes the parties to take further action to promote implementation of this provision.2Another potential source of tension would be the use of trade measures to induce other countries to participate in a climate regime or to enforce compliance among those that do participate. The idea that governments participating in the Kyoto Protocol should act together to impose trade measures against the United States (in view of its decision not to join the Protocol) is a recurrent image in writings about the climate regime, particularly by Europeans (e.g., Legrain 2002, p. 253). Some analysts have also suggested that the evolving climate regime employ trade sanctions to hold parties to their commitments. Both uses of trade measures could be challenged in the WTO. Although no climate-related dispute has yet reached the WTO, potential conflicts appear on the horizon. Following the U.S. rejection of the Kyoto Protocol, the European Parliament called for new initiatives “within supranational structures (in particular the World Trade Organisation)… designed to prevent countries which do not ratify the Kyoto Protocol from obtaining unfair competitive advantages, particularly where energy products are concerned.”3Venezuela has told a WTO committee that measures taken to implement the Protocol could run afoul of trade rules and raise trade concerns (WTO 2002,para. 198). Saudi Arabia has cited “a number of areas in which countries pursuing environmental objectives (such as climate change policy) may contravene their WTO obligations and seek to protect their domestic interests” (Saudi Arabia 2002, par a. 57). That no dispute has bubbled up may suggest that trade action —either unilateral or within the WTO—is more easily threatened, perhaps for political advantage, than actually launched. But it may also be a sign of a constriction underneath the surface. Worries about infringing trade rules, reportedly, have led to a “chilling effect” in some environmental negotiations in which prospective treaty measures are taken off the table because of concerns that such measures might violate the WTO. The claim that prospective climate measures are a WTO violation may also inhibit consideration of policies and measures at the national level. The good news is that opportunities exist for making the trade and climate regimes more comple-mentary and, potentially, synergistic. The two regimes could, at a minimum, work independently andtogether to anticipate and avoid conflicts between their mandates. The climate regime, for instance,could facilitate a uniform approach to energy/GHG taxation, and particularly, the application of taxes toAdvancing the international effort 142

31

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – environmental policy
Alternative energy policies lead to economic consequences from the EU
William D. Nordhaus, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University., 3-27-06, After Kyoto: Alternative mechanisms to control global warming, Foreign policy in focus think tank, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3167 [Barber] After more than a decade of negotiations and planning under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), the first binding international agreement to control the emissions of greenhouse gases has come into effect in the Kyoto Protocol. The first budget period of 2008-2012 is at hand. Moreover, the scientific evidence on greenhouse warming strengthens steadily as observational evidence of warming accumulates. The institutional framework of the Protocol has taken hold solidly in the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which covers almost half of Europe's CO2 emissions. Notwithstanding this apparent success, the Kyoto Protocol is widely seen as somewhere between troubled and terminal. Early troubles came with the failure to include the major developing countries along with lack of an agreed-upon mechanism to include new countries and extend the agreement to new periods. The major blow came when the United States withdrew from the Treaty in 2001. By 2002, the Protocol covered only 30% of global emissions, while the hard enforcement mechanism in the ETS accounts for about 8% of global emissions. Even if the current Protocol is extended, models indicate that it will have little impact on global temperature change. Unless there is a dramatic breakthrough or a new design, the Protocol threatens to be seen as a monument to institutional overreach. Nations are now beginning to consider the structure of climate-change policies for the period after 2008-2012. Some countries, states, cities, companies, and even universities are adopting their own climate-change policies. Are there in fact alternatives to the scheme of tradable emissions permit embodied in the Protocol? The fact is that alterative approaches have not had a serious hearing among natural scientists or among policymakers. What are some alternatives? 1 For global public goods, there are three potential approaches: command-and-control regulation, quantity-oriented market approaches, and tax- or price-based regimes. Of these, only the tradable-quantity and the price-like regimes have any hope of being reasonably efficient. Under a tradable quantity approach, an agreement proceeds by setting limits on emissions by different countries. The limits are partially or wholly transferable among countries. This is the approach taken under the Kyoto Protocol. This approach has very limited international experience under existing protocols such as the CFC mechanisms and somewhat broader experience under national trading regimes, such as the U.S. SO2 regime. A radically different approach is to use harmonized prices, fees, or taxes as a method of coordinating policies among countries. This approach has no international experience in the environmental area, although it has modest experience nationally in such areas as the U.S. tax on ozone-depleting chemicals. On the other hand, the use of harmonized price-type measures has extensive international experience in fiscal and trade policies, such as with the harmonization of taxes in the EU and harmonized tariffs in international trade.

32

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link--environmental policy
EU wont compromise on alternative energy policy New York Times, 4/20/03, Europe Gets Tougher On U.S. Companies, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html? res=9900E0D9143AF933A15757C0A9659C8B63 [adit] The European Union, which includes 15 member countries from Portugal to Finland and Ireland to Greece, is adopting environmental and consumer protection legislation that will go further in regulating corporate behavior than almost anything the United States government has enacted in decades. For American companies that are accustomed to getting their way in Washington, it has come as a shock. "They are big powerful companies in the U.S., but just because they are big powerful companies in the U.S. doesn't mean they are going to be treated better in Brussels," said Michelle O'Neill, who lobbies on behalf of Hewlett-Packard here. If anything, being an American company in Europe is a liability these days. Some American business practices are regarded with deep suspicion here, in light of the corporate accounting scandals and what many Europeans see as the Bush administration's high-handed and unilateralist policies on the environment and Iraq. "I don't think that Europeans are in the mood — or will be in the mood for some time to come — to swallow what the Americans tell them about the way things are going to go," said Giles Merritt, who runs Friends of Europe, a research group that receives money from the European Union.

Defiance of EU emissions policy kills relations New York Times, 4/20/03, Europe Gets Tougher On U.S. Companies, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html? res=9900E0D9143AF933A15757C0A9659C8B63 [adit] In Washington, corporate lobbying has weakened or killed legislation aimed at regulating tobacco, pharmaceuticals and pollutants that contribute to global warming. In all three cases, the affected industries spent tens of millions of dollars on lobbying and advertising, all to persuade lawmakers that regulation restricted the free market and would hurt American business. Such tactics would not play well in Europe, where there is a long history of state intervention in the economy and where senior government officials are usually more highly regarded than are corporate executives. "If you go on the offensive in Europe it backfires and you lose on all fronts," said Erik Jonnaert, the chief lobbyist here for Procter & Gamble. American companies can ill afford such losses in a big market that is about to become bigger: after 10 nations join the European Union next year, the rule makers here will represent more than a half-billion consumers

33

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link --Incentives
Unfair advantages lead to EU imposition of tariffs on the US
Pew Center Global Climate Chainge, independent research group, 02 January, Implications for US Companies of Kyoto's Entry into Force With the United States," http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Kyoto-USBusiness.pdf [Barber] Kyoto will create an international market in GHG emission reductions from which private firms could potentially profit. Emissions trading - In general, emissions trading would allow regulated companies to reduce their costs of compliance, but would not produce economic gains for regulated entities (unless the required emission reductions could be achieved through no regrets measures). The emissions trading rules adopted in Marrakech would not prevent U.S. companies from acting as financial intermediaries or brokers in facilitating emissions trades. CDM - The Kyoto Protocol allows private entities to participate in CDM projects and thereby earn an additional return on projects that reduce GHG emissions or enhance sinks through the generation of certified emission reduction (CER) credits. Under the Marrakech Accords, U.S. companies will be able to participate in the CDM despite U.S. non-participation in Kyoto, since the rules allow developing countries to undertake unilateral CDM projects – that is, CDM projects that do not involve the participation of an Annex B party. As a result, a U.S. company could undertake a CDM project in conjunction with a host developing country. In addition, the CDM rules adopted in Marrakech do not specifically require that “operating entities” (firms or other entities that provide services such as review of baselines and verification of emissions reductions) be entities of Kyoto Protocol parties. Thus, U.S. firms could potentially serve as operating entities under the CDM. Joint implementation - Despite U.S. non-participation in Kyoto, U.S. firms could compete for emission reduction projects in other developed countries. Although the U.S. firms could not directly receive the emission reduction credits generated from such projects, they could receive their monetary equivalent. Measures against U.S. Exporters Trade sanctions - Conceivably Kyoto parties could try to use the Kyoto Protocol as a justification for imposing trade measures against non-parties. However, such measures would be problematic under the GATT and would not address the fact that nonAnnex B parties and large seller nations such as Russia would all enjoy similar advantages. A Kyoto party that imposed a carbon tax as part of its domestic implementation might argue that a border tax adjustment was needed to compensate for the fact that non-parties such as the United States do not have a similar tax. In general, the GATT allows countries to impose border tax adjustments. However, such a tax adjustment would need to apply in a non-discriminatory manner to all countries that don’t impose similar taxes. Annex B parties might argue that trade restrictions on goods from countries without comparable emission targets are necessary in order to make their own climate policies effective by preventing leakage (that is, the migration of production, and emissions, from Annex B parties to countries without targets). This paper does not address in detail whether a World Trade Oranization panel would be likely to uphold attempts to use Kyoto as a basis to justify trade measures against countries without comparable emission targets. However, the existing WTO jurisprudence makes it quite difficult for a country to impose trade restrictions against goods on the grounds that those goods are produced in a manner that harms the environment. CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE

Link -- Incentives
34

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008
(PEW) CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS PAGE Moreover, any restrictions would arguably need to be applied against all countries without emission targets (including developing countries), not just non-parties such as the United States. The European Parliament has already stated its view that the EU should launch an initiative in the WTO to prevent non-parties from gaining unfair competitive advantages, so the threat of trade measures against the United States is more than merely hypothetical.

Government incentives have international trade implications with the EU Kenneth P. Green, Steven F. Hayward, Kevin A. Hassett, 6-1-07, Environmental policy outlook, AIE (American Enterprise institute for public policy research) online publications, Climate Change: Caps vs. Taxes http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.26286/pub_detail.asp [Barber]
Establishing allowances and accounting systems for GHG emissions across industries is going to be vastly more difficult and highly politicized. The forest products industry, for example, will reasonably want credits for creating carbon sinks in the trees it plants and harvests, but the manufacturing sector that uses these wood products as a raw material will want credit for sequestering carbon. The difference will have to be split in some arbitrary manner that will surely introduce economic distortions in the marketplace. The auto industry will want credits for GHG innovations, while industries and businesses of all kinds will lobby for credits for reducing mobile source emissions from changes to their auto and truck fleets. There are going to be winners and losers in this allocation process. Multiply this problem across sectors and industries and it becomes evident that a GHG emissions-trading system is going to be highly complex and unwieldy, and too susceptible to rent-seeking influence in Washington. The problem of politically adjusting competing interests will be compounded on the international scale. The longrunning diplomatic conflicts that can be observed over purported subsidies for aircraft (i.e., Boeing versus Airbus) and the European Union's agricultural subsidies and trade barriers are examples of the kinds of conflicts that will be endemic to any international emissions-trading scheme.

35

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link-- incentives
U.S. not complying with warming standards leads to sanctions and tariffs which leads to global trade wars
Aldy, Joseph E., Peter R. Orszag, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2001. Climate Change: An Agenda for Global Collective Action, Paper Prepared for the Conference on “The Timing of Climate Change Policies,” Pew Center on Global Climate Change, October http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:COMuvbVKm-8J:www.sbgo.com/Papers/Aldy-OrszagStiglitz_5.pdf+climate+change:+an+agenda+for+global+collective+action&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us [Barber] The major economic sanctions are associated with trade, and although trade sanctions are often ineffective when imposed by a single country against another, they can be effective in some limited situations. Trade sanctions were part of the backdrop to the Montreal Protocol to protect the stratospheric ozone layer, although compliance has been achieved without resorting to them. A question remains about how such trade sanctions can be squared with World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. In particular, it is unclear what happens when two international treaties come into conflict. In the following paragraphs, we describe how a sanction system could potentially work, and how it could respond to a situation in which WTO obligations were found to be inconsistent with climate treaty obligations. The easiest context for seeing how an international compliance regime would work is if the global agreement involved common measures (e.g., a carbon tax). If one country refused to comply with that approach, the rest of the world could simply impose a compensating tax on the relevant nation’s exports. Indeed, the other nations could impose a punitive carbon tax -- i.e., a tax against the rogue nation’s exports equal to, say, three times the carbon tax that would have had to have been paid in the first place. The tax could even vary with the ratio of exports to domestic production, so that the total carbon tax collections collected from the country by foreign governments would be a fixed multiple of what the country would have collected itself, had it imposed the carbon tax. Such a system could change the political economy of the underlying agreement, since the interests who previously opposed the imposition of a carbon tax domestically would have less incentive to continue such opposition. The hardest questions are posed by potential WTO restrictions. The traditional interpretation of WTO rules is that they do not allow discrimination on the basis of process and production methods. This interpretation would preclude taxes based on energy or greenhouse gas inputs. The recent shrimp-turtle case, however, raises interesting questions about the traditional interpretation of WTO rules. In the shrimpturtle case, the appellate body found that Article XX of the GATT 1994 in principle allowed countries to impose trade sanctions on the basis of environmental concerns outside their borders (in this case, shrimp caught outside the United States in a manner that incidentally killed sea turtles). The logic of the appellate body’s argument could easily be extended to allowing nations to impose trade sanctions on rogue countries that do not obey international climate norms. Regardless of whether WTO regulations allow such trade sanctions, they do not forbid them: they only allow retaliation against countries that impose sanctions outside the WTO rules. Thus, the countries of the world could impose sanctions against a rogue nation, knowing that the rogue nation may be entitled under the WTO rules to retaliate. Such retaliation may not be undertaken in any case, since it would only serve to reinforce opposition to the rogue nation. Indeed, any such “trade war” could increase public sentiment for compliance with global norms. The danger with this approach, however, is that excessive reliance on trade sanctions may undermine the general WTO framework and threaten global trade. 36

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – incentives
If the U.S. Turns to voluntary climate measures, the EU will compensate with trade barriers.
Richard B. Stewart and Johnathan B. Wiener, December 03’, Practical climate change policy, http://209.85.215.104/search? q=cache:79sojU_DGWwJ:www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/media/7/9/Climate_paris_1.pdf+United+States+and+Kyoto+and+voluntary+and+climate+and+regulation+and+europ e&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=30&gl=us [Barber] The extensive literature on climate science and policy shows that climate change is a serious risk that warrants sensible global regulatory action despite its many uncertainties. Indeed, some uncertainties, such as the risk of abrupt climate shifts, favor more, not less, action. But climate change calls for prudent preventive approaches, not costly crash measures. Under the international law of treaty adoption by consent, a climate policy regime must yield net benefits not only to the world as a whole, but also to each country that participates. Because the damages from climate change and the costs and benefits of climate protection will vary significantly across countries, designing a regime to attract participation by all major emitters will be quite a feat. Several studies suggest that the Kyoto Protocol, as currently structured, would probably yield expected benefits less than its expected costs, particularly for the United States. Perhaps for this reason, the Bush administration has rejected the protocol and proposed voluntary measures aimed at reducing U.S. GHG emissions intensity (emissions per unit of economic output), but not necessarily reducing total emissions. Limiting the growth of GHG emissions can, however, be prudent insurance against the risks of climate change if appropriate regulatory policies are followed. A National Academy of Sciences report requested by the White House in 2001concluded that rising GHG emissions from human activities are already causing Earth's atmosphere to warm and that the rate and extent of warming will increase significantly during this century. Recent studies indicate that some initial warming and carbon fertilization may help agriculture in some areas, including Russia, China, and member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), but will likely have adverse effects in poorer areas. These studies also show that the impact of greater or more rapid warming will worsen worldwide over time, including losses of 1 to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States and other OECD countries and 4 to 9 percent in Russia and most developing countries, except China, which is forecast to gain about 2 percent of GDP. These estimates do not include the possibility of abrupt changes in ocean currents or other earth systems. But the Kyoto Protocol would reduce global emissions only enough to avoid a fraction of these future losses, perhaps 10 percent, amounting to a benefit of 0.1 to 0.2 percent of GDP in the United States and other industrialized countries and 0.4 to 0.9 percent of GDP elsewhere. Several economic models put the cost of meeting the Kyoto targets through wholly domestic measures to reduce CO emissions at 1 to 3 percent of GDP in the United States and other industrialized countries, clearly exceeding the benefits. Smart regulatory design, however, can substantially reduce these costs. As detailed below, a comprehensive approach covering all GHGs and sinks and full international emissions trading could in concert reduce the costs by 90 percent or more, to 0.1 to 0.3 percent of GDP, about equal to the estimated benefits. Adding the risk of abrupt climate change and the ancillary benefits of reduction of other pollutants might make the benefits slightly greater than the costs for the United States and would make the benefits significantly greater than the costs globally.

STEWART AND WIENER CONTINUED ON NEXT PAAGE

37

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link - incentives
STEWART AND WIENER CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS PAGE Although staying out of Kyoto could give U.S. industry a competitive advantage over companies in other industrialized countries that are subject to Kyoto's regulatory burdens, U.S. nonparticipation in any climate regime would also deprive U.S. businesses of valuable commercial opportunities and impose significant business risks. If the United States joined a welldesigned climate regime, many U.S. companies could become allowance sellers by achieving low-cost GHG emission reductions and enhancing sinks, and many U.S. firms in the financial, consulting, accounting, legal, and insurance industries could help run emissions trading markets. These opportunities for U.S. business are likely to be foreclosed or sharply restricted if the United States remains on the sidelines. London, not New York, will become the center of global emissions trading; indeed, this is already starting to happen. Ironically, the United States championed international emissions trading and the comprehensive approach for the past 12 years, but is now standing aside while others move first. Britain, Denmark, and Norway are already launching their own domestic CO emissions trading systems, and the EU is creating a Europe-wide trading system, also limited to CO emissions. These European CO2 emissions trading systems may become the models for the global trading system, restricting the coverage of other gases and sinks and leaving the United States at a disadvantage if it decides to join later. If the United States stays out of international climate policy, U.S. businesses subject to eventual U.S. domestic emissions limitations, as well as those with operations abroad in industrialized countries that ratify Kyoto, will be unable to enjoy the compliance cost savings provided by international emissions trading. Worse, parties to the Kyoto Protocol, particularly in Europe, may attempt to impose countervailing duties against imports of U.S. goods to compensate for the lower cost of embedded GHG emissions in U.S. production; such "carbon trade wars" could seriously damage global prosperity.

38

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link Incentives
Voluntary non target based Kyoto alternatives will be bashed by Europe The Washington Post, 2/16/02 Bush Climate Plan Gets Cold Shoulder; Alternative to Kyoto Protocol Bashed on Eve of Asia Tour, lexis [adit] President Bush's plan for combating global warming received a frosty response around the world today, with Belgium questioning the morality of a plan that would allow U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to continue to rise. Bush offered incentives to companies that voluntarily slow the rise in heat-trapping gas emissions blamed for global warming, the rise in the atmosphere's temperature. The Bush administration withdrew from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which set mandatory reductions in greenhouse gases, arguing it would harm the U.S. economy. "It's really shocking. . . . It's a bit like saying: 'Wealth is for us today in 2002 and we will leave the problems for our children or for people in Africa or Asia,' " said Belgium's energy minister, Olivier Deleuze, of the Green party. Deleuze led the European Union delegation at talks last year that secured support from most of the rest of the world to push on with the Kyoto treaty without the United States. "It's a policy that's not very moral, I feel," Deleuze told Belgian television channel RTBF of Bush's plan, which was announced Thursday. Many scientists say gas emissions -- particularly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels -- are trapping heat in the Earth's atmosphere, risking massive climate changes that could lead to disastrous floods and droughts. The United States generates roughly one quarter of the world's man-made greenhouse gases. Germany's environment minister, Juergen Trittin, said Bush's plan was "disappointing" because it was voluntary and failed to set targets for cuts by the world's biggest polluter. "We must not slam the door for a return of the United States under the Kyoto Protocol's regime," he said. "We must not let the country with the biggest emissions of greenhouse gases worldwide escape responsibility for protecting the global climate." The European Union's environment commissioner, Margot Wallstrom, said Bush's policy could lead the United States to break a long-standing commitment to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions. "It seems that President Bush's proposals will not lead to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions but allow a significant increase," she said. "This raises the question whether the U.S. will be able to meet its commitments under the [1992] U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change." The United States remains a party to the 1992 climate change pact that President Bush's father signed at the Rio Earth Summit. The convention commits developed countries to try to stabilize their greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels. Japan, host of the Kyoto talks, said it was not "extremely happy" with the Bush plan. "It's obvious that this plan won't achieve the 7 percent reduction target which the United States had agreed to in Kyoto," Environment Minister Hiroshi Oki said.

39

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link—Incentives
Incentive based reductions jacks U.S-E.U relations--they are perceived as isolationist Francine Kiefer and Peter Spotts Staff writers of The Christian Science Monitor, 2/15/02 Bush opts for incentive-based CO2 cuts, Christian Science Monitor p.3 lexis [adit] "The White House spent a year criticizing the Kyoto Protocol, saying it didn't do anything to solve the problem in the long term," says Dr. Kete. "This plan doesn't solve anything either." The White House does, however, propose mandatory cuts on another emissions issue largely unrelated to climate: a 70 percent reduction in nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury by 2018. These are the three worst air pollutants, and contribute to smog, acid rain, regional haze, and particle pollution. Nitrogen oxides also contribute to global warming, but Kete says, the administration's impact on nitrogen oxides is expected to have a negligible effect in the battle against climate change. Even before the administration released its proposal, some of which would require congressional approval, environmental groups were emailing reporters with blistering appraisals. It's a sign that, four months after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, the administration is now open to domestic criticism. Europeans unhappy, again Internationally, the response to the Bush plan may not be enthusiastic either, observers say, since it still disregards past US commitments to reduce greenhouse emissions. Nor do observers expect developed countries in Europe or Asia to see this as a viable alternative to the Kyoto accords. "This is clearly going to be seen as more of the go-it-alone approach by the US," says Donald Goldberg of the Center for International Environmental Law. The timing of Bush's announcement is thought to have been influenced by the president's departure tomorrow on a five-day trip to Asia. His first stop will be Tokyo, where the government has been anxious to see the US take some steps on greenhouse emissions.

40

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link--Subsidies
Increased Subsidies ensure EU sanctions Christian science monitor, Biofuel boondoggle: US subsidy aids Europe's drivers, 6/8/08, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0608/p02s01-usec.htm [adit] The US importer of the load applies to the Internal Revenue Service for the credit – a dollar for each of the 9 million biodiesel gallons, Mr. Baize calculates. The next day the tanker can set sail – dash – for Europe. There, the US importer resells the biodiesel, taking advantage of European fuel-tax credits that, in effect, keep biodiesel prices above US prices. "Splash-and-dash is something Congress never intended," says Baize. "It's bad for taxpayers and it ought to be fixed now." Signs of splash-and-dash began to show up last fall. But efforts to fix the problem only began taking shape in Congress this spring after European biodiesel manufacturers complained in March about the subsidized imports and the US biodiesel industry also complained a month later. "This [splash-and-dash] is something our people are aware of and that's on their radar screen," says a staff aide on the House Ways and Means Committee, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press. "It's one of the issues that's driving closer scrutiny." European officials are also unhappy about the practice. Such "touch and go" maneuvers could quickly become a much larger problem, warned Raffaello Garofalo, secretary general of the European Biodiesel Board, in a March 19 letter to the European Trade Commissioner. European manufacturers are worried about all US biodiesel imports – not just the splash-and-dash variety – because the subsidized fuel is flooding their markets, cutting into their domestic biodiesel business and lowering prices. "We want really to get a fair trade and want this unfair subsidy to stop," says Mr. Garofalo in a phone interview. "The US products get subsidies in the US, and in Europe, a double subsidy." The industry is calling for trade sanctions against the US.

41

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link—Domestic Policy
Domestic initiatives kill EU relations BBC, 6/28/05 EU pushes binding climate deal, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4724877.stm [adit] The European Commission's environment spokeswoman Barbara Helferrich told the BBC News website that Europe remained committed to further legally binding reductions in emissions. "We welcome any initiative that can combat climate change, but this has to be seen in a global context," she said. "If it is simply technology and clean coal, it is no substitute for agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and we do not expect it to have a real impact on climate change. "There will have to be binding global agreements, but on what scale and what basis is yet to be decided." The designated forum for making those decisions is the next round of United Nations climate negotiations, which opens in Montreal in November - shortly after the Asia-Pacific grouping holds its first meeting in Adelaide. There is concern in environmental circles that the United States and Australia will present the new pact as evidence that a "son-ofKyoto"-style treaty is not needed. Europe, which for many years has been the leading pro-Kyoto force, is unlikely to agree.

42

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link-must be 0 emissions
Zero-emission alternatives are the only way to maintain U.S-E.U relations New York Times, SUZANNE DALEY, 2/15/02, Europeans Give Bush Plan on Climate Change a Tepid Reception, lexis, [adit] Saying that any action taken to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases was at least a step in the right direction, the European Union gave a tepid welcome today to President Bush's new proposals to tackle climate change. The Bush proposals, which are strictly voluntary, would rely on tax credits to coax big business to pollute less. As word of the proposals began to filter out, many environmentalists and political commentators in Europe said that Mr. Bush's plan was far too little, too late, and would not improve his image abroad as a servant of the oil industry. The most outspoken reaction came from France, where the head of an intergovernmental task force on global warming calling the proposals "window dressing." The expert, Philippe Meunier, said that although it was hard to judge the new plan before knowing its details, "the total volunteerism approach makes us worry." "It lacks credibility," Mr. Meunier added. "We worry that without sanctions it just won't work." He asserted that while the plan was a step in the right direction, it showed that the United States sought change "at no cost and in a way that would not in any way challenge the American lifestyle and especially its consumption." Echoing the concerns of most other specialists reacting today, Mr. Meunier evoked the Kyoto Protocol, the widely accepted treaty that would require emissions cuts by 2010 to well below their 1990 levels. The Bush plan might "destabilize" support for the Kyoto pact, which is awaiting ratification. As Mr. Meunier put it, "You may have countries that say, why should we who are poorer do anything?" The Bush administration's rejection of the protocol last March caused an outcry in Europe and came to be seen here as another example of America's refusal to limit its options in almost any sphere. When he rejected the treaty, Mr. Bush called its targets arbitrary, its schedule too costly to meet and its terms unfair. Nonetheless, no other country has chosen to abandon it. The voluntary measures in the plan Mr. Bush unveiled today would, if followed, slow but not halt the growth in emissions of heat-trapping gases linked to global warming. It would use $4.6 billion in tax credits over the next five years to encourage companies and individuals to limit those emissions. In Brussels, a European Commission spokeswoman, Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen, said, "We feel that the multilateral approach is the best way to face up to this tremendous challenge." She said that the European Union still hoped the United States would return to the Kyoto pact. In Britain, Chris Hewett of the Institute for Public Policy Research, added his voice to criticism of the plan as not enough. He said Britain had proved "that you can cut emissions and still have a healthy economy," adding that there was no "inextricable link" between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. Some green groups said they were suspicious of the timing of the White House announcement, just days before Mr. Bush is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Japan. Japan has so far remained committed to the Kyoto pact, but it has made no secret of the fact that it will have difficulty meeting its targets. Hiroshi Oki, the new Japanese environment minister, said it would be best for the United States to return to the the protocol. But, he said that "our joint efforts" must not be halted by disagreement on that point. The only real praise for the Bush administration had nothing to do with the environmental proposal. In Germany, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a member of the government's advisory council, made a point of citing a second American plan announced today, one that affects emissions but not global warming. He hailed Mr. Bush's call for mandatory restrictions on three power plant pollutants -- mercury, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides -- as "a great air pollution policy." "A wonderful policy," Mr. Schellnhuber added. "But the wrong target

43

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link—policy not Kyoto
Deviation from Kyoto sets Bush on a collision course with Europe Irish Times, PATRICK SMYTH, Washington Correspondent, Bush abandons pledge on carbon dioxide, 3/15/01, lexis [adit] In a dramatic about-face that reflects the important influence of the energy industry in the White House, President Bush has abandoned an explicit campaign pledge to set limits to CO2 emissions. The decision, against the advice of his director of the Environmental Protection Agency, Ms Christine Todd-Whitman, sets the new administration on a collision course with Europe in the Kyoto climate-change talks. Only days ago Ms Todd-Whitman was assuring the country that Mr Bush would keep his election promise. "George Bush was very clear during the course of the campaign that he believes in a multi-pollutant strategy, and that includes CO 2", she told CNN's Crossfire. "He has also been very clear that the science is good on global warming." During the election Mr Bush even criticised his opponent, Mr Al Gore, for proposing voluntary emission curbs. "In Texas we have done better with mandatory reductions and I believe the nation can do better," he claimed. But on Tuesday, in a letter to four Republican senators, Mr Bush claimed that "new" evidence from the Energy Department showed that curbs on CO2 emissions would lead to a move away from coal to gas and result in higher energy costs. "I do not believe . . . that the government should impose on power plants mandatory emission reductions for carbon dioxide," he told them. The decision was a bitter disappointment to environmentalists who believe that CO2 is a major factor in global warming and was described by one Democratic member of the House, Mr Henry Waxman, as a "breathtaking betrayal". And Mr Waxman pointed the finger firmly at the influence of coal and oil lobbies on a White House. Mr Bush and Vice-President Bill Cheney are both former oil executives as are several senior members of the Cabinet, and Mr Bush will have been reminded that he owes the coal producers of West Virginia, won by him on promises that coal would be made a priority by his Administration. Mr Bush has made repeated play of the need for the US to become more self-sufficient in energy production by such controversial means as drilling in the Alaskan National Wilderness Park. For energy interests the policy on CO 2 jarred with that. Mr David Doniger, senior lawyer for the Natural Re sources Defence Council, said: "Bush has turned his back on the consensus of the science which shows that global warming is an alarming problem. "You just can't deal with global warming unless you deal with power plants. He's snuffed out the spark of what we had hoped would be a progressive environmental policy. He's caved in to the coal industry's medieval view of the science," he said. Internationally Mr Bush's decision will be viewed with dismay. Talks on implementation of the Kyoto protocol on emission limits were postponed last month at US request after its negotiators said they needed more time to prepare. That had given rise to hope that the US, the main obstacle to binding commitments to greenhouse gas emission reductions, would be more forthcoming. The Kyoto Protocol has been signed by more than 100 countries but has not been ratified by any industrialised nation. Its final adoption would require the US and three dozen other industrialised countries to cut combined emissions by 2012 to 5 per cent below their 1990 levels. The US produces a fourth of the world's emissions with 5 per cent of the world's population. Bargaining broke down in November at The Hague, where the EU rejected a US compromise position.

44

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – policy not Kyoto
Incentives violate the Kyoto protocol leads to European sanctions on the U.S.
Timothy E. Deal, senior VP for the US council for international business, Jan 08, WTO rules sand procedures and their implication for the Kyoto Protocol, http://209.85.215.104/search? q=cache:mr_7GUxZIywJ:www.uscib.org/docs/wto_and_kyoto_2008.pdf+The+World+Trade+Organization%27s+view: +emissions+reduction+in+a+free+trade+world+Arthur+Appleton&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us [Barber] “In order to meet their Kyoto emission targets with minimum adverse effects on their economy, it is highly likely that Annex 1 governments with differentiated legal and political systems might pursue these policies in such a way as to unfairly favor domestic producers over foreign ones. Such differential treatment could occur in governing eligibility for, and the amount of, the subsidy, in establishing energy efficiency standards, in the determination of the category of ecolabled products and the procedures of establishing ecolabels, in the specifications in tenders, and in specifying condition(s) for participating in government procurement bids. In (the) case where a country unilaterally imposes a carbon tax, it may adjust taxes at the border to mitigate (the) competitiveness effects of cheaper imports not subject to a similar level of the carbon in the country of origin. Measure(s) of this sort may well raise complex questions with respect to the WTO consistency and the conditions under which border taxes can be adjusted to accommodate a loss of international competitiveness.”
2

The possibility of a clash over climate change commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and WTO rules arises because of the U.S. decision to abandon Kyoto. Strong resentment over this action, particularly in Europe, could lead the EU, and perhaps others, to undertake actions to penalize American and other non-Annex 1 firms for alleged competitive advantages resulting from their non-adherence to Kyoto, although the probability of such action is low at the present time. In 2002, the United States Council for International Business (USCIB) produced an earlier version of this paper. At the time, the notion of trade action in the form of a carbon tax against non-Kyoto compliant countries was highly speculative in nature and supported mainly by NGOs such as Greenpeace International and Friends of the Earth Europe. Since then, politicians on both sides of the Atlantic have talked more openly about carbon taxes. At the time, the official EU position was outlined in a policy statement posted on its website: “The EU also wants to clarify that measures taken to tackle environmental problems under Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs), such as the Kyoto Protocol on Climate change, are not contrary to WTO rules. For example, problems could arise if a country imposed a trade measure for environmental purposes on another WTO Member that had not signed the MEA. Could the country affected use WTO rules to overrule the trade measures? The EU wants WTO Members to agree that this should not be allowed to happen.”
3

But some European politicians have suggested more aggressive action. In November 2006, then French Prime Minister Dominque de Ville pin stated, “Europe has to use all its weight to stand up to environmental dumping”, adding that France would urge its European partners to study “the principle of a carbon tax on the import of industrial products from countries which refuse to commit themselves to the Kyoto Protocol after 2012.” That same year, in a letter to EU Commission President Barroso, EU Enterprise and Industry Commissioner Günter Verhheugen backed de Villepin’s proposal, saying that if Europe remained alone in cutting emissions, there was a risk that companies could shift their production to countries where standards were more lax. He added that border tax adjustments for developed countries that have not implemented Kyoto could balance out such effects

45

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – policy not Kyoto
Increased disagreement on environment policy leads to increased tension between the U.S. and the E.U.
David L. Aaron and C. Boyden Gray, co- chairmen of the Atlantic Council. 2002. Risk and Reward: U.S.–EU Regulatory Cooperation on Food Safety and the Environment, November, http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:3FHUXrIZMIAJ:www.acus.org/docs/0211Risk_Reward_U.S._EU_Regulatory_Cooperation_Food_Safety_Environment.pdf+Risk+and+reward+U.S.+E.U. +regulatory+cooperation+on+food+safety+and+environment&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us#35 [Barber] Both the United States and the European Union (including the member states) have adopted many laws and regulations designed to protect their environments. Indeed, they have been in the forefront internationally in developing such rules. However, the different regulatory approaches behind these rules have led to disputes. Although disagreements to date have been limited in both number and scope, some have been especially persistent. Given the importance of environmental protection to both the European and U.S. publics, the political sensitivity of these disagreements is likely to increase, leading to greater transatlantic tensions in the future. Moreover, these regulatory issues have a significant international dimension, as the standards and practices that develop out of the two dominant markets will inevitably affect those adopted by multilateral standard-setting bodies and international corporations. The disagreement over the Kyoto Protocol on climate change is only the most visible example of transatlantic conflict over the environment. Other, lower profile cases — over hushkits for airplanes, electronic waste recycling, persistent organic pollutants, and ozone-depleting substances — have also generated serious tensions. These cases proved to be particularly complex because of the multitude of actors involved, most with primarily domestic orientations and agendas, and because of the impact of continually changing technologies. Finally, while the United States and the EU often agree in their assessment of the risk, they sometimes use incompatible mechanisms to manage that risk and approach implementation and enforcement very differently

46

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – policy not Kyoto
Taxation penalities on U.S. don’t exist in S.Q. Incentives continue to violate the Kyoto Protocol Europe will target the US
Biermann, Frank and Rainer Brohm. Institute for Environmental policies, 2003. Implementing the Kyoto Protocol Without the United States. The Strategic role of Energy Tax Adjustments at the Border, Global Governance Working Paper, No. 5, January. http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:SAXsYzk0bUJ:www.glogov.org/images/doc/BiermannReplaceWP5.pdf+Implementing+the+Kyoto+Protocol+Without+the+United+States. +The+Strategic+Role+of+Energy+Tax+Adjustments&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us [Barber]

The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on 16 February 2005 has highlighted the political divide between the coalition of industrialized countries that support the Kyoto treaty and plan to implement stringent climate policies, and the few industrialized countries that are unwilling to do so. This situation has a likely consequence: energy prices, in particular between the USA and Europe, will continue to develop in different directions. Current trends in European energy and climate policies are expected to result in further increases in the price of energy, while US prices will remain unaffected by the current climate policies of the Bush administration. Price increases in Europe may be brought about, in particular, by environmental taxation. Up until now, different schemes of energy or carbon taxes have been introduced in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Sweden and the UK. Energy prices in the USA are already substantially lower than in most countries with sizeable energy taxes. For instance, the price of heavy fuel oil for industry in the USA is about one-fifth lower than the average price in a sample of nine other OECD countries, all of which have some form of energy taxation (see Table 1). Regarding electricity prices for industry, prices in the USA are lower by as much as one-third. This price gap between the USA and other industrialized countries is more remarkable given that countries with energy tax regimes already grant numerous exemptions for energy-intensive industries. Without such exemptions, price effects of domestic energy taxation would be higher. Some countries, such as Germany, are also planning to significantly reduce the number of exemptions Such price differentials created or reinforced by environmental taxation have triggered strong political pressure against European governments and the European Commission in the past, and they are likely to continue to do so. Such political pressure, in particular from industry, may obstruct European environmental policies and become a threat for climate protection strategies and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. This in turn might jeopardize, or at least complicate, the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol in those countries that have ratified it. A number of different options are available for European governments to offset real or perceived impacts of energy taxes on competition. Most prominent is the partial or full exemption from the tax and the granting of reduced tax rates. Although such tax exemptions for energy-intensive or export-oriented industries can eliminate competitive disadvantages or reduce the burden below a threshold of concern, exemptions also give rise to significant problems.

47

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008
CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE…

48

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – policy not Kyoto
(BIERMANN) CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS PAGE… In this article, we therefore analyze an alternative measure that could offset competitive burdens on the global marketplace without watering down the environmental objective of reducing carbon dioxide emissions: the adjustment of energy taxes at the border. There are at present no such border adjustment schemes on energy taxes in place, nor do we expect such adjustments to be enacted soon. Instead, we are interested in the question of whether such border tax adjustments would be allowable under world trade law if, at some time in the future, European decision- makers would deem such measures as being necessary to protect (possibly more stringent) European climate policies from competition by non-European industrialized countries. This information about a hypothetical future situation is highly relevant for the present development of policies, and it might prove to be important information for climate negotiators in both Europe and the USA.
It is important to note that we draw a distinction between border tax adjustments vis-à-vis non- European industrialized countries, on the one hand, and developing countries, on the other. We draw this distinction on both fairness and legal grounds. On fairness grounds, certain advantages for developing countries through the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are probably justified given the historic overuse of the atmosphere in the course of Northern industrialization and the persistent higher per-capita emissions in the North. On legal grounds, such advantages seem justified, if not required, by the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities as enshrined in Article 3:1 of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, as well as in the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. These legal documents influence the interpretation of world trade law, since its interpretation must take into account widely ratified multilateral treaties concluded by WTO parties in related domains (see Biermann,2001, on this question). In addition, possible environmental leakage effects to developing countries can be addressed through existing mechanisms, such as the Global Environment Facility that has been created to reimburse the agreed incremental costs of developing countries in implementing the climate convention and a few other agreements.

Thus, border tax adjustments might be implemented – if justifiable under world trade law, as will be analysed in the remainder of this article – against industrialized countries that gain trade advantages through persistently lower energy prices owing to insufficient implementation of climate policies. Border tax adjustments should be avoided, however, against developing countries, while other policies to address carbon leakage, such as financial and technological

49

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – policy not Kyoto
EU already perceives U.S. as economically advantaged, incentives force tariffs and trade barriers.
ICTSD (International centre for trade and sustainable development), Dec.07, Climate, equity, and Global trade, International The E.U. and the U.S. http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:ib7dSBKtwx8J:www.tradeenvironment.org/page/ictsd/projects/Bali_Climate_Equity_and_Global_Trade_Dec07.pdf+Committee+on+Trade+and+Environment+ Special+Session,+Energy+Taxation, +Subsidies+and+Incentives+in+OECD+Countries+and+their+Economic+and+Trade+Implications+on+Developing+Countries, +in+particular+developing+oil+producing+and+exporting+countries&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us [Barber] European UnionThe European Parliament has passed resolutions calling upon the European Commission to consider the possibility of imposing offsetting tariffs on imports from countries that are not parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The Commission’s reaction has been to oppose such measures on the grounds that they risked exacerbating tensions in trade relations with the US, particularly at a time when trade relations were already strained and trans-Atlantic relations more generally were unusually conflicted over a broad range of issues. In addition, there were concerns that such measures would undermine support in the US for increased EU-US cooperation on climate change issues. Finally, there were concerns that such a tariff might be challenged in a WTO dispute settlement case, and the outcome of such a case would inevitably be uncertain. However, before leaving office in 2007, French President Chirac and Prime Minister deVillepin suggested again that such measures be undertaken. European Trade Commissioner Mandelson responded, however, that this would not be helpful. For now, the issue is quiescent at least in public. However, since it is of continuing concern to the European cement industry and other greenhouse gas-intensive industries, the issue is not likely to go away. United States Similar issues appeared in 2007 on the agenda in the US in the context of the introduction of climate change bills in the Congress. As in the EU, it is a combination of international competitiveness and climate change free-rider concerns that have put the issue on the active agenda in the US Congress. As of the beginning of September 2007, the prospects for the many climate bills under consideration in the House and Senate were uncertain. However, whatever the outcome of votes in the two houses on these bills and any Presidential action that might ensue, it is clear that there is much political support for some kind of border measure provision in climate legislation that includes a mandatory cap-and-trade system. There is a key difference in the form of the measure that is on the agenda in the US, as compared with the tariff proposal in Europe. In particular, the proposal in the US is to require US importers in some circumstances to purchase GHG emission allowances. Such a measure could be less vulnerable than a tariff to challenge in the WTO, because it could more clearly be considered an environmental measure that would qualify as an exception under GATT Article XX(g), which allows measures “relating to the conservation of exhaustible natural resources.”1One US legislative proposal of special interest that was under consideration in September 2007 was Senate Bill S. 17 , which is commonly know as the Bingaman Bill or Bingaman-Specter bill after its sponsors. It includes Title V, “Periodic Review and International Leadership,” which requires reviews every five years of “whether each of the five largest trading partners”2of the US has taken “comparable action” to limit GHG emissions (section 501(2)(B)(i)). “Comparable action” is definedas “greenhouse gas regulatory programs, requirements, and other measures adopted by a foreign country that are determined by the President to be, in combination, comparable in effect to the action taken by the United States to limit greenhouse gas emissions pursuant to this Act, after taking into account the level of economic development of the foreign country” (section 502(a)(2)). US importers of “covered” GHG-intensive goods from countries that have been found not to have taken comparable actions must purchase “international reserve allowances” (i.e. GHG emission credits) to be issued by the US government. A “covered good” is one “that the President identifies, by rule, as a greenhouse gas intensive good that is closely related to goods, the cost of production of which in the United States is affected by this Act” (section 502(a)(5)).3These and many other technicalities of the bill are of course subject to revision in Congressional deliberations and in any negotiations that may occur between members of Congress and the President

CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE…

50

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link – policy not Kyoto
( ICTSD) CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS PAGE However, it is significant that quite specific and extensive language already has been formulated and is under active consideration in the Congress. It is also noteworthy that there would be much flexibility in how the provisions of the bill would be applied to particular circumstances. Further, the bill would require negotiations with countries before the import measures were implemented.Perhaps more important than the legal technicalities or procedural issues at this point, is the political support already expressed for the concept of border measures on imports from countries deemed by the US government to be deficient in terms of actions to mitigate climate change in the future. Indeed, the proposal was first vetted jointly by one of the country’s largest electricity producers, American Electric Power, and one of the largest labor unions, The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. It has subsequently been endorsed by other major business and labour organisations. In short, the issue is now a significant item on the climate policy agenda in the US, and with much domestic political appeal.Scenarios for the Future As this article was being finalised in early September 2007, the US Congress was returning from a late summer recess, with a widespread expectation that at least some of the proposed climate legislation would progress to votes by the end of the year. Though not entirely out of question, the prospects were not promising for passage of such measures and acceptance by the President by the end of 2007. A more likely scenario is that there will be such legislation passed, signed and entering into effect in 2009 or 2010.It is also likely that pressures to put in place some kind of import measures in the EU will grow as the debate and legislative process in the US progress. Ironically, the debate in the US will tend to legitimise any similar measures by the EU. Furthermore, the international competitiveness concerns in the EU are more advanced than in the US because the EU’s Emission Trading Scheme is already in operation, while any US national cap-and-trade system is still years from being operational if at all. The precise form that such a measure would take in the EU, however, is uncertain. On the one hand, as noted above, there has already been movement towards the establishment of offsetting tariffs; on the other hand, certain features of the possible US measures, particularly in regard to challenges in the WTO, may make it more appealing to require GHG allowance purchases rather than to impose a tariff. A third possibility that could emerge from present circumstances is that the EU and US would join together in an effort to develop border-measure provisions to be included in the post-2012 climate regime. Now that the concept has become part of the climate change dialogue in Washington as well as in Brussels, it would be natural for a trans-Atlantic dialogue, whether explicitly and officially endorsed or not, to expand as ideas for the post2012 agenda become increasingly tangible and detailed

51

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Link - technology
U.S. Focus to technology p/o Europe
EurActiv.com, 5-27-05, Heroes or Villains EU and US policy on climate change, http://www.euractiv.com/en/sustainability/heroes-vsvillains-eu-us-policies-climate-change/article-140082 [Barber] America's focus on technology has gone down badly in Europe, explains CEPS's Christian Egenhofer because it was seen as trying to postpone the issue for the long term and wait for another 50 years. Egenhofer agrees this could partly explain the US attitude but he believes there is merit in developing technologies. "If you look at the targets that need to be achieved under the UNFCCC, then you will need breakthrough technologies by 2050. And you don't get these without putting money into research and collaboration projects. They do not develop on their own." In the EU, the approach has been to "push" new technologies by putting a cap on industry's CO2 emissions and setting up a market for individual plants to buy or sell the CO2 emission allowances they were granted. The Commission says the scheme also has a "market pull" component in the sense that it makes low carbon technologies more competitive compared to the more polluting ones. "You get a lot of improvement of existing technologies the EU way by increasing the price of carbon which pushes technology improvements, but you do not get the breakthrough technologies in this way," comments Egenhofer. With their long-term research programme and massive investments, Egenhofer believes the US "has got something right there". In the EU, the CO2 constraint placed on individual industrial plants have so far been too low to give enough incentives for breakthrough technologies, because they come at a too high a cost, Egenhofer continues. "In that sense, it does not get you there, you really need breakthrough technologies," he says. There are of course renewable sources of energy which are being pushed by the EU with the aim of increasing its share of electricity production to 22.1% by 2010. But they will not play a big role, even in 20 to 30 years, Egenhofer points out. Renewables are of course important, but their cost needs to be brought down and "the only way of doing this is by getting them onto the market" thanks to appropriate support. "But obviously, if you put subsidies into coal, the renewables will become competitive later, he adds, saying EU countries are still subsidising coal to the tune of 20 billion euros a year. "In the US, this is not an issue, they are exporting."

52

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap

53

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap
U.S. voluntary measures are perceived by European countries as moving away from Global Climate change policy
Pamela S. Chasek, Manhattan College, 9-19-07, “U.S. policy in the U.N environmental arena: powerful laggard or constructive leader?” International environmental agreements, politics, law, and economics, http://www.springerlink.com/content/24vp586k31766450/fulltext.html [Barber] The U.S. was also adamantly opposed to language on targets and timetables for reducing fossil fuel consumption. In the end, the U.S. was successful in thwarting European attempts to set a goal of having 15% of countries’ energy provided by renewable sources by 2015 (Speth 2003). The U.S. was also wary of expansion of scope of two principles contained in the Rio Declaration—the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (Principle 7) and the precautionary ‘approach’ (Principle 15). The U.S. had been reluctant to include these principles in the Rio Declaration and worked hard to limit their scope. Since Rio, the U.S. has worked hard to contain the influence of these two principles and has constantly denied their status as customary international law (Brunnée 2004, p. 629). The long-standing U.S. resistance to the precautionary principle is rooted in the concern that it might serve as the pretext for other countries to restrict the import of U.S. goods. Reluctance to embrace the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities is derived from concern that this could imply that the U.S. bears the legal responsibility for global environmental problems, such as climate change, and that any action taken by developing countries must be financially and technically supported by developed countries (Brunnée 2004, pp. 629–630). Finally, the U.S. made concerted efforts to promote the Type II outcomes—voluntary public-private partnerships—in Johannesburg. Rather than relying on negotiated agreements, the U.S. argued forcefully that private sector engagement was the best way to promote implementation of sustainable development agreements. Critics of this approach, including Norway and members of the G–77 (see Rosendal and Najam, this volume), felt that the partnerships initiative was a way of masking the failure of governments to agree on meaningful action and enable governments to abdicate responsibility to sustainable development. Others argued that the lack of any international review process for the Type II outcomes (this was resisted by the U.S.), meant that there was no accountability and that these partnerships may result in all talk and no action. The U.S., on the other hand, felt that these partnerships could harness the billions of private dollars that circulate the globe and far outweigh public development assistance (Brunnée 2004, p. 635).

54

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap
Europe perceives Voluntary Incentives as a continuation of rejection of the Kyoto protocol
Suzanne Daley, 2-25-02, New York times, Europeans give Bush plan on climate change a tepid reception, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A07EFD6153FF936A25751C0A9649C8B63&n=Top/Reference/Times %20Topics/People/D/Daley,%20Suzanne [Barber] The Bush proposals, which are strictly voluntary, would rely on tax credits to coax big business to pollute less. As word of the proposals began to filter out, many environmentalists and political commentators in Europe said that Mr. Bush's plan was far too little, too late, and would not improve his image abroad as a servant of the oil industry. The most outspoken reaction came from France, where the head of an intergovernmental task force on global warming calling the proposals ''window dressing.'' The expert, Philippe Meunier, said that although it was hard to judge the new plan before knowing its details, ''the total volunteerism approach makes us worry.'' ''It lacks credibility,'' Mr. Meunier added. ''We worry that without sanctions it just won't work.'' He asserted that while the plan was a step in the right direction, it showed that the United States sought change ''at no cost and in a way that would not in any way challenge the American lifestyle and especially its consumption.'' Echoing the concerns of most other specialists reacting today, Mr. Meunier evoked the Kyoto Protocol, the widely accepted treaty that would require emissions cuts by 2010 to well below their 1990 levels. The Bush plan might ''destabilize'' support for the Kyoto pact, which is awaiting ratification. As Mr. Meunier put it, ''You may have countries that say, why should we who are poorer do anything?'' The Bush administration's rejection of the protocol last March caused an outcry in Europe and came to be seen here as another example of America's refusal to limit its options in almost any sphere. When he rejected the treaty, Mr. Bush called its targets arbitrary, its schedule too costly to meet and its terms unfair.

55

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap

Bush’s environmental policies are perceived by Europe and further movement against the Kyoto protocol
Ben Fenton in Washington and Charles Clover, Environment Editor, 2/15/02, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1384984/Bush-puts-US-on-'new-path'after-no-to-Kyoto.html [Barber]

PRESIDENT BUSH announced last night a "new environmental path for America", his alternative to the Kyoto protocol he summarily rejected last year, to the dismay and anger of European nations and other allies. Mr Bush outlined a voluntary scheme for reducing the rate of growth in America's greenhouse gas emissions that "will benefit the entire world". His proposals, which involved encouraging American companies to comply with regulations to slow the increase in pollution of the skies, were condemned by his critics. Environmentalists in Britain said the Bush plan would mean a rise in emissions over the next decade, instead of the cut required by the Kyoto treaty. The plan is aimed at cutting greenhouse gas "intensity" - emissions per unit of gross domestic product - by 18 per cent over 10 years. But the Bush administration's forecast rate of growth in GDP over the next decade is 38 per cent, meaning that emissions will rise by 14 per cent. The treaty signed by Mr Bush's father in 1992, the Climate Change Convention, to which America remains a party, requires signatories to put in place policies and measures with the aim of returning to their 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions. John Lanchbery, head of climate change policy at the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, said: "This is not an alternative to Kyoto but a travesty of it. It is aptly named the 'global warming plan' because that is precisely what it will lead to." But the European Union gave a cautious welcome. "It is positive that the US administration is realising that there needs to be something done about climate change, but we feel that the multilateral approach is the best way to face up to this tremendous challenge." The 1997 Kyoto protocol, which Britain and 178 other countries have signed, but not ratified, calls for countries to return to 1990 levels by 2010. The protocol was endorsed by Bill Clinton when he was president, but not ratified by the Senate. The Bush White House rejected it on two grounds, both linked to American jobs. First, the administration objected that the protocol did not apply to such major polluting nations as China and India and would give them an unfair competitive advantage. Second, Mr Bush expressed scepticism about the science that linked greenhouse gases to climate change and refused to risk thousands of American jobs by imposing restrictions costing companies hundreds of millions of pounds.

56

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap

Voluntary targets are perceived as undermining Kyoto The Gazette, SHELDON ALBERTS, CanWest Washington Correspondent, 9/29/07, Bush warms up to climate change, sort of; 'We take this issue seriously'. President seeks goals for slashing carbon emissions, but rejects mandatory cuts, lexis [adit] U.S. President George W. Bush urged the world's biggest greenhouse gas emitters yesterday to agree on goals for slashing carbon emissions, but rejected mandatory cuts as potentially devastating to global economic growth. Addressing a White House-sponsored conference on energy and climate change, Bush said the U.S. agrees "there is a problem" with global warming but said each country must decide on its own how best to meet reduction targets. The U.S. will press rich countries to contribute to a new "international clean technology fund" aimed at help developing nations pay for cleaner technologies key to reducing emissions. "Our guiding principle is clear: We must lead the world to produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and we must do it in a way that does not undermine economic growth or prevent nations from delivering greater prosperity for their people," Bush told delegates to the twoday conference, which attracted officials from 16 countries, including Canada. "Each nation must decide for itself the right mix of tools and technology to achieve results that are measurable and environmentally effective." In the past, Bush has questioned the science linking human activity to global warming. But in his speech, he cited a report this year by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that concluded global temperatures are rising and that they are caused largely by human activities. "Our understanding of climate change has come a long way," Bush said. "The United States will do our part. We take this issue seriously." The U.S., though, has come under fire from European countries for continuing to resist mandatory greenhouse gas limits. The Bush administration refused to participate in the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012, partly because major developing countries like China and India were not required to cut emissions. Any new international consensus for voluntary emissions cuts must include both China and India, he said. "By setting this goal, we acknowledge there is a problem, and by setting this goal, we commit ourselves to doing something about it," Bush said. Bush's insistence on voluntary targets has been viewed by some environmentalists as an attempt to undermine the United Nations efforts to negotiate new mandatory standards after Kyoto. But the Bush denies the U.S. is charting its own course. He said his government will convene its own meeting of major polluters by the summer of 2008 to "finalize" emission targets and methods for measuring progress.

57

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Link - Voluntary Percieved As Shift From Cap
Voluntary incentives are criticized by European leaders as ineffective and unilateral
Peter N. Spotts and Mariah Blake, starr writer and contributor to the Christian Science Monitor, President , 6-4-07, Bush’s new global warming plan greeted with skepticism at this week’s world summit in Germany. http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0604/p02s01wogi.htm [Barber] Under Mr. Bush's plan, the United States would gather leaders of 15 developed and developing nations that are the leading emitters of heat-trapping gases and the largest consumers of energy. Their objective: Develop a long-term emissions-reduction goal that, according to administration officials, is "aspirational" rather than binding. Countries would then develop their own sets of internal programs to achieve the overall goal. Bush unveiled the plan on the eve of this year's Group of 8 summit, set to start Wednesday in Heiligendamm, Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will chair the meeting, has put out drafts of a final communiqué that commit G-8 members to doing their "fair share" to reach specific emissions goals by 2050. Her effort is driven in no small part by three recent reports on global warming, its effects, and strategies for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases – mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuel. The reports, which aim to inform policymakers as they craft ways to reduce human influence on climate, were issued earlier this year by the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). During the run-up to the G-8 meeting, the Bush administration has come under intense criticism from environmental groups and some European officials. The White House rejected the wording of large sections of the draft's climate provisions. It argued that the offending elements run counter to Bush's policy on dealing with global warming. For example, Washington's proposed changes to the draft G-8 document virtually wipe out any reference to various emissionsreduction goals by 2050 or an objective of trying to hold global average temperature increases to about 2 degrees C. These are based on IPCC projections of possible emissions trends and approaches that could avoid what the UN agreements refer to as "dangerous human-made influence on climate." It would now appear that the White House may have been trying to adjust the draft communiqué text in ways that brought it into closer conformity with the plan Washington was preparing to announce. The White House has long rejected mandatory targets and timetables. Fewer friends in US's corner Either way, some analysts say, the Bush plan is merely trying to defuse the barrage of criticism aimed its way. "This is a transparent effort to divert attention from the president's refusal to accept any emissions-reductions proposals at [the] G-8 summit," says Philip Clapp, head of the National Environmental Trust in Washington. "The White House is just trying to hide the fact that the president is completely isolated among the G-8 leaders by calling vaguely for some agreement next year, right before he leaves office." As if to underscore that isolation, long-time Bush ally on climate, Australian Prime Minister John Howard, announced over the weekend that his country would set an emissions target next year and set up a carbon-trading system by 2012 to help achieve it. Both approaches have been anathema to the White House. Others suggest the White House is attempting an end-run around any United Nations-based process for dealing with climate. Sigmar Gabriel, the German environment minister, said Friday that the G-8 should not allow the Bush plan to become "a Trojan horse to get past Heiligendamm and basically torpedo the international climate-protection process." Some, though, say Washington's approach in the end may help prod a ponderous UN process. While setting an "aspirational" goal might seem out of touch with calls for binding commitments, environmental treaties often set a broad goal, which is turned into action through each country's process of ratification and enacting enabling legislation, said James Connaughton, head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, at a May 31 press briefing. Citing fisheries agreements as an example, he noted that, "You agree on goals in the international process [and] you implement them through national strategies that include binding measures."

58

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Internal Links - Carbon Tarrifs/Relations

59

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Carbon Tariffs = Trade War
Climate Tarrifs Ensure Retaliation and Trade wars Euractiv, January 28 2008, EU warned of trade war over climate measures, http://www.euractiv.com/en/trade/eu-warned-trade-war-climate-measures/article-169878
The Commission's threat of climate-related trade sanctions aimed at putting EU and third country producers on a level footing appears mainly targeted at convincing governments in Washington and Beijing to adhere to a global deal on climate change. Indeed, the EU executive has confirmed that it will not decide on the introduction of any such measures before 2011. However, the mere fact that the EU is considering such action has already caused outrage among its trade partners. The United States has warned it would "vigorously" resist any move to introduce a tax on American products based on its position in climate change negotiations. Last week, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab accused the EU of using the climate as an excuse for protectionism.

Sanctions risk global trade wars between major powers Financial Post March 25 2008, Carbon Tariff War? http://www.nationalpost.com/related/links/story.html? id=397658
A European Union summit agreement two weeks ago to slash carbon emissions by 2020 ended with a veiled threat. If the rest of the world doesn't match Europe's carbon tax and control regimes, "appropriate measures" can be taken by the EU, the final summit statement said. The phrase "appropriate measures" hasn't been defined yet, but French President Nicolas Sarkozy thinks Europe should impose a carbon tariff on goods imported into Europe. If steel arrives from China or America, countries that have no carbon taxes in place, then Europe should tax the steel. European governments love a good excuse to build trade barriers. Carl B. Hamilton, a Swedish MP and economics professor, warns in a letter to the Financial Times that EU-initiated carbon trade barriers "could provoke a global trade war between the EU on the one hand and countries such as the United States, China, India and Brazil on the other."

60

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Carbon Tariffs= Trade War
EU sanctions cause trade wars New Energy News, June 01, 2008, EU – U.S. BIOFUEL TRADE WAR?, http://newenergynews.blogspot.com/2008/06/eu-us-biofuel-trade-war.html
The EC is threatening to put a duty on U.S. biodiesel imports if “splash and dash” is not discontinued, although public statements remain muted. Unnamed EU diplomat: "The Commission is in contact with the United States to clarify certain details regarding U.S. production…" The U.S. Congress looked into closing down this abominable practice in the 2007 energy bill but “somehow” the loophole in the biodiesel subsidy left it in place. If Congress doesn’t close the loophole soon, it risks starting a trade war with the EU. The situation is urgent for the European biodiesel industry. Linda McAvan, Labour MP, UK:"My fear is that by the time we get something done, the European industry will be out of business."

Threats to trade risk relations collapse; it’s the NUCLEAR BOMB of climate negotiations Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst and write for BBC News, January 22, 2008, Barroso trade threat on climate, BBC news, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7201835.stm
He said foreign firms should be forced to purchase the same EU carbon allowances European firms would have to buy, thereby leveling the industrial playing field. The threat of trade measures is the nuclear bomb of climate negotiations - and the commission president said he very much hoped it would not be used. He said his preferred option was for a comprehensive global treaty on emissions.

EU has been supporting sanctions on the US for awhile, they wont hesitate Roger Harrabin, Environment analyst and write for BBC News, January 22, 2008, Barroso trade threat on climate, BBC news, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7201835.stm
The idea of climate trade sanctions against nations such as the United States has long been promoted by the French. They say it is unfair for Europe's firms to bear a financial risk because of the EU's leadership on a global issue. They believe the right measures would be acceptable to the WTO, which in some cases allows countries to impose charges on environmental grounds

Trade sanctions threaten major trade wars Robert Collier, May 2, 2008, Can Green Trade Tariffs Combat Climate Change? http://www.policyinnovations.org/ideas/commentary/data/000051
After the inconclusive end of the UN led Bali talks on the global environment, worry has grown among U.S. and European industries—especially iron, steel, cement, glass, chemicals, and pulp and paper—that any new climate treaty would put them at a big disadvantage against their fast-growing competitors in China. In response, the U.S. Congress is moving to create a system of trade sanctions that would levy heavy taxes on imports from other major greenhouse gas emitters. Ironically, the American plan is taking shape even before the United States takes any action to reduce its own emissions, inviting charges of hypocrisy, violation of international law, and threatening a major trade war.

61

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Carbon Tariffs =Trade War
Trade disputes between the U.S. and E.U. could easily escalate to trade wars. Toronto Star, November 13th, ‘3 (World trade wars are on the horizon and it's a time for Canadian leadership; If the global trading system fails, the world faces the risk of a major recession, p. Factiva) The world is closer to trade wars than it has been for many years. This is bad news because trade wars are highly destructive to jobs and growth. Once launched, they inevitably escalate, generating a vicious cycle of retaliation and response.This is what happened during the 1930s, making the Great Depression much worse. It was why, after The Second World War, that many nations, including Canada, worked to create a new trade regime to lower trade barriers and establish a procedure for dealing with trade disputes. This was the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT, which in 1994 became the World Trade Organization (WTO). The trigger for such a trade war this time could come from an increasingly protectionist United States and a European Union that finds itself at odds with the United States on many issues, from the war in Iraq to the Kyoto agreement on climate change.

62

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Trade Key to US-EU Relations
EU and US trade key to relations. – Trade relations heavily influence political relations. European Policy Center 26 July 2002 “EU-US Economic Disputes: There is More to Trade than Goods and Services” http://www.euractiv.com/en/trade/eu-us-economic-disputes-trade-goods-services/article116971)
Regardless of which path is pursued, the key to regaining stability in transatlantic trade relations is an increased understanding between the two societies. Stu Eizenstat and Hugo Paemen in their piece in the Financial Times London, of July 25th, 2002 suggested several steps to reach this objective, including a one-year suspension of the filing of new WTO cases and the drafting of a common economic goal and work programme to achieve it. This alone, however, is not enough. Congress and the European Parliament, as respective legislative bodies, should intensify information sharing and try to achieve a further harmonization of legal standards and trade laws. At the same time Europeans must double their efforts to explain the precautionary principle to the US so that the deep concerns at the heart of the new philosophical trade disputes are recognized and taken seriously by their transatlantic partner. Finally, both powers must realize that trade and politics no longer are easily separated. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Trade today is the only area in which the EU and the US deal as equals. But if Americans and Europeans can keep in mind the benefits reaped from multilateral economic cooperation and transfer the lessons learned here into the political sphere, the basis for a new transatlantic relationship might well be laid.

[ ] US-EU trade relations lead to political partnership and relations. European Policy Center 26 July 2002 ( “EU-US Economic Disputes: There is More to Trade than Goods and Services” http://www.euractiv.com/en/trade/eu-us-economic-disputes-trade-goods-services/article-116971)
The EU-US trade relationship is of great importance in today's global economic system. Not only do bilateral economic relations between these two economic giants make up over 40% of world trade, but their trade relationship also greatly influences political cooperation between the two unions. As Leon Brittan, former EU commissioner for trade recently wrote, there is a loose linkage between economic and political cooperation and partnership. If serious strains arise on one side of the relationship, there is always a risk that the other will suffer. The US-EU trade relationship draws wider circles, however, and also serves an important signalling effect to the world trading system as a whole. Indeed, it is difficult to move the global trade agenda forward when the EU and US pull on opposite strands.There is currently a long list of US-EU trade disputes ranging from unresolved issues, such as the EU refusal to allow imports of hormone treated beef (despite a contrary WTO ruling), to those disputes that are only just about to erupt, such as the potential row over the imposition of tariffs on US steel imports. Most recently, the EU has won a case against the US for its Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) Law, which bestows special tax breaks on US companies in the exporting business. The EU was granted the right to impose sanctions worth up to $4 billion the largest award in WTO history. For the status and a brief summary of the 11 currently active bilateral US-EU cases in the WTO please refer to the Annex below. Even though EU-US trade accounts for less than 22% of EU trade, it comprises over 47% of the EU's WTO disputes. By contrast, the EU currently has not a single WTO dispute with its preferential partners in Europe and Africa, although 32% of its trade takes place with these countries. These numbers point out that, even though the EU and US try to settle their trade disagreements in various informal and formal bilateral settings, they still depend heavily on the WTO dispute resolution mechanism to solve their most contentious problems.

63

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Trade Key to US-Eu Relations
Transatlantic trade disputes spillover Jan Bohanes, Associate Attorney at the International Trade and Dispute Resolution Group, 2005 Review: Transatlantic
Economic Disputes: The EU, the US, and the WTO, Journal of Economic Law, The United States (US) and the European Communities (EC) are among the world’s most developed economic entities and together account for some 40 percent of both global GDP and trade. Indeed, it is almost trite to refer to the importance the US and the EC – and their bilateral relationship – have within the World Trade Organization (WTO). From the perspective of the global economic and trading system, the significance of the economic relations between these two economic giants, and of the economic disputes arising between them, can hardly be overestimated. It may be true that only two percent of EC–US trade and investments are affected by allegedly WTOinconsistent trade restrictions; nevertheless, EC–US economic disputes often surpass disputes between other nations by virtue of the sheer trade volume at stake or their political dimensions. Furthermore, these disputes often reflect some of the thorniest questions of trade policy – taxation policy and health measures (hormones, genetically modified organisms), to name only two. Moreover, the EC and US have, over the past ten years, been the two most frequent litigators before the WTO, such that disputes pitting the EC and the US against each other have led to the clarification of significant aspects, in terms of substance and volume, of both procedural and substantive WTO law. In sum, EC–US economic relations and economic disputes represent an area of study of great importance in international economic affairs. And this important area of study has been enriched by an edited volume whose quality is on a par with the importance of the subject matter it addresses.

[ ] Free trade without barriers key to EU US relations.
U.S. Department of State April 30, 2007 ( “U.S., EU Agree To Reduce Regulatory and Trade Barriers” http://useu.usmission.gov/Article.asp?ID=74174DC1-203C-48EA-87F6-C58557DEB56A) The United States and the European Union (EU) have agreed to expand economic ties by cutting barriers to trade and investment and liberalizing restrictions on air travel. Joint commitments on a broad range of economic and security issues were signed April 30 during the annual U.S.-EU summit in Washington.President Bush, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso signed the trans-Atlantic economic partnership plan under which the two trading partners will establish a framework for business integration by streamlining regulatory standards that are often different between the trans-Atlantic partners. “It is a commitment to eliminating barriers to trade. It is recognition that the closer that the United States and the EU become, the better off our people become,” Bush said at a joint press conference with the European leaders after their meeting. As part of the framework, the United States and EU will set up the "Trans-Atlantic Economic Council" to push regulatory convergence in nearly 40 areas, including intellectual property, financial services and the automotive industry. Merkel, whose country holds the rotating EU and G8 presidency, said the agreement is a “significant step forward” for trade partners that exchange more than $2 billion in goods and services across the Atlantic every day. In addition to the United States and Germany, the G8 includes the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Japan, Canada and Russia. Barroso said the agreement will help fight protectionism and isolationism by getting rid of “artificial barriers to trade and investment” through the “harmonization of standards.” In addition, all three leaders stressed their commitment to bringing the long-stalled Doha round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations to a successful outcome. "I'm under no illusions as to how hard it will be to achieve the objective, but the first thing is there must be a firm commitment by the leadership to get a deal," Bush said.

64

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Trade Key to US-Eu Relations

Trans-atlantic economic relations are key to US-European relations Lee Hamilton, director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and director of the Center on Congress at Indiana University, 6/30/08, Treading carefully in transAtlantic, relationshttp://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article? AID=/20080630/OPINION12/806300312/1002/opinion [SD]
It's the world's largest economic bloc with a GDP of $16 trillion, and its once-lethargic economies are growing faster than America's with lower budget deficits. The Euro continues to appreciate against the dollar, unemployment is falling, and the EU is reducing its dependence on foreign energy. Despite longtime U.S. support for European integration, there are real differences over: Iraq, the broader Middle East, the death penalty, and climate change, among others. But keeping trans-Atlantic relations in good order is a strategic interest of the highest importance for both partners. Germany and France are among Iran's four largest import-partners. While the U.S. should engage Iran directly for diplomatic nonproliferation efforts to succeed, transatlantic coordination is essential.

US-European relations are based on interests and trade. Lee Hamilton, director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and director of the Center on Congress at Indiana University, 6/30/08, Treading carefully in transAtlantic, relationshttp://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article? AID=/20080630/OPINION12/806300312/1002/opinion [SD]
Turkey's increasingly dynamic economy, its vibrant democracy, and its growing clout in foreign affairs illustrate its tremendous value as an ally. The U.S. would welcome Turkey's further integration into the EU, but many Europeans express reluctance or outright opposition. Despite these challenges, the future of U.S.-European relations is not bleak. Our alliance is rooted in common values, interests, and strong economic ties, including the world's largest bilateral trade relationship, measuring roughly $3 trillion in goods and services. The foundations of our alliance are unshakeable, and the opportunities for its leaders are great.

65

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Impacts

66

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Free Trade - Extensions
US-EU relations are key to trade and the world economy WILLIAM DROZDIAK, Executive Director of the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Center in Brussels, Jan/Feb2005, The North Atlantic Drift. By: Drozdiak, William, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Jan/Feb 2005, Vol. 84, Issue 1, EBSCO, Business Source
Complete These transatlantic investments have proved very profitable. In 2003, while the media reported that Americans were pouring Bordeaux wine down the drain to protest Paris' position on the war in Iraq, corporate America saw its investment inflows and profits from France surge to the highest levels in nearly a decade: $2.4 billion and $l.7 billion, respectively. Profits earned by U.S. affiliates in Europe soared to a record $77 billion, and U.S. investments in Europe jumped by 30 percent to $87 billion. Large U.S. technology firms, such as Microsoft and Intel, predict that half of their global revenues will come from Europe in 2005. Thus, U.S. business leaders say that the EU's 450 million affluent consumers still form the largest pool of purchasing power in the world. They also say that economic self-interest should be enough to persuade both Democrats and Republicans in the United States to want to protect the Atlantic partnership--all the more so because the combined Economic power of the United States and Europe would give them enormous leverage to deal with major global challenges. Despite the billions of dollars already invested on both sides, the full potential of the U.S.-European economic relationship is not yet realized. Four big challenges remain. The first is managing the Western world's worsening jobs crisis (which is partly caused by outsourcing to cheap-wage places such as China and India) without resorting to the kind of draconian protectionist measures that provoked the Great Depression. Second, as the world's major oil, coal, and gas consumers, the United States and Europe urgently need to consider joint energy and environmental strategies to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Third, they must promptly conclude the Doha Round of global trade negotiations by agreeing to cut much of their $300 billion in farm export subsidies, which harm producers in developing countries and exacerbate the disparity between rich and poor nations. Finally, they must

67

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Trade Economy -Module
European- US trade disputes collapse the global economy European Commission, 11-07, The EU and the US are each other's main trading partners and account for the largest bilateral
trade relationship in the world. They are also the largest players in global trade., http://ec.europa.eu/trade/issues/bilateral/countries/usa/index_en.htm In 2006 the EU and the US combined economies accounted for nearly 60 % of global GDP, 33 % of world trade in goods and 42 % of world trade in services. The EU and the US are each other's main trading partners. Trade flows across the Atlantic amount to around €1.7 billion every day. The two economies are interdependent to a high degree. Close to a quarter of all EU-US trade consists of transactions within firms based on their investments on either side of the Atlantic. The transatlantic relationship also defines the shape of the global economy as a whole as either the EU or the US is also the largest trade and investment partner for almost all other countries in the global economy. Total FDI stocks held in each others countries reach approximately €1.89 trillion. The overall "transatlantic workforce" is estimated at 12 to 14 million people, of which roughly half are Americans who owe their jobs directly or indirectly to EU companies.

Nuclear War
Walter Russell Mead, 1992, New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer, p. 30. The failure to develop an international system to hedge against the possibility of worldwide depression- will open their eyes to their folly. Hundreds of millions-billions-of people around the world have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. They and their leaders have embraced market principles-and drawn closer to the West-because they believe that our system can work for them. But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates, or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia. China. India-these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 1930's.

68

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Trade Economy - Extensions

Collapse of relations destroys the global economy (Gareth Harding, Europe Correspondent for United Press International, 9/7/2002 (United Press International))
Despite their differences, EU and U.S. leaders know that a breakdown in relations between the two sides would be disastrous for the international economy and global stability. Together, Europe and America have the biggest trade and investment relationship in the world -- amounting to over $1 billion a day -- accounting for half the planet's wealth and forming the cornerstone of the world's most powerful military alliance, NATO.

69

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations Democracy Module
EU - US trade relations key - relations promote peace and democracy. European Union February 2005 ("EU / US Relations" http://www.eurunion.org/eu/index.php?
option=com_content&task=category&sectionid=7&id=29&Itemid=59) Bilateral trade between the EU and US amounts to over $1 billion a day; investment links are even more substantial, totaling over $1.8 trillion a year. Each partner creates jobs for about 6 million workers on each side of the Atlantic, and EU-US trade accounts for almost 40% of world trade. But the EU-US economic partnership goes way beyond pure trade matters: it is supported by a number of institutionalized dialogues and regulatory cooperation between the partners. Through continued dialogue and cooperation the EU and US also work together to promote global peace, stability and democracy. On a global level, the EU and US are major powers and as such have a global responsibility. Exercising that power and responsibility effectively inevitably means working together. In that respect the EU and US are jointly promoting democracy, freedom, stability and prosperity throughout the world. Whether it is in the Middle East, Afghanistan or the Balkans, Europe and the US can only succeed in advancing these values if they act together. Together the EU and US are committed to the challenge of alleviating poverty and disease and provide almost 80% of global development assistance.

The impact is human survival and global war
Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, 1995, [December, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm] This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness. LESSONS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY The experience of this century offers important lessons. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret. Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

70

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations Democracy Extensions
US-EU relations key to democracy promotion Colin Powell, former U.S. Secretary of State, 2003
Thanks in great measure to the concerted efforts of Americans and Europeans, efforts that have gone on for the past half century, we are much closer to that vision, much closer that world we dream of today. The spread of democratic and economic freedoms that together we have done so much to secure and engender, have opened unprecedented opportunities to help better the lives of millions on every continent. And the hope for realizing that great potential still rests to a great degree on strong and enduring partnerships between Europe and the United States.

US-EU cooperation key to democratic reforms in the Middle East Richard Youngs, senior researcher at the 'Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior' (FRIDE) in Madrid, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, 2004, Trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Misjudgment?, http://www.fpc.org.uk/fsblob/352.pdf At the very least, tighter trans-Atlantic cooperation would make it more difficult for Middle Eastern regimes to play the EU and US off against each other. This has on occasions worked to the detriment of both the EU and US: when the EU started to raise reform issues with the Egyptian government in the mid-1990s, Mubarak’s regime could confidently rebuff these efforts by pointing to continued unconditional US support; conversely, when the US moved to push the Algerian regime towards reform, the latter was able to cite continued French backing. One trans-Atlantic group of experts has advocated a ‘common trans-Atlantic benchmark’ for offering solidarity to democracy activists, that could be brought about through the US and EU pressing regimes to sit down with a range of opposition and civil society organisations to design national reform projects. 13 Certainly, given the extreme lack of coherence between different donors’ projects, the US proposal to pool and commonly plan political aid initiatives was not without merit. For all the EU’s defensiveness over being emasculated by intensified US involvement, American policy-makers have frequently acknowledged that the US ‘carries more baggage’ in the Middle East and consequently has greater need of a more multilateral effort. This gives the EU leverage to negotiate forms of cooperation that boost its own aims and approaches to reform. As within the EU itself, cooperation need not completely suppress areas of particular national expertise; it can be readily acknowledged that some things may be better done by the Europeans, others by the US. A common trans-Atlantic reform agenda should be able to combine the benefits of a united front with space for diversity in European and US priorities on the ground. consider global financial reforms to avert a dollar crisis and take account of the growing importance of the euro.

71

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Solves Iran Prolif Module
US-EU Cooperation key to stop Iranian prolif WILLIAM DROZDIAK, Executive Director of the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Center in Brussels, Jan/Feb2005, The North Atlantic Drift. By: Drozdiak, William, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Jan/Feb 2005, Vol. 84, Issue 1, EBSCO, Business Source
Complete U.S. and European assets are complementary. Europe's penchant for offering diplomatic incentives should be combined with America's tendency to threaten military force. Concerted diplomacy would help fulfill Europe's ambitions of playing a more assertive role in world affairs while encouraging it to work more closely in partnership with the United States. At the same time, presenting a unified front would restore to U.S. action the international legitimacy that the Bush administration's strong-arm unilateralism has tarnished. Washington should allow its allies in Europe to take the lead in exploring new policy initiatives in regions where they enjoy greater influence or historical connections. Consider Iran, for example. The Bush administration was skeptical about Iran's proclamation that its nuclear activities were only peaceful, but it encouraged Europe to make a last-ditch effort to persuade Tehran to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities and reassure the world that it is not trying to build nuclear weapons. European diplomats say Iran's refusal to accept Europe's best offer, including enhanced trade possibilities and assured nuclear fuel supplies, would almost certainly trigger EU support for the UN sanctions that the United States is advocating. Indeed, the combination of European diplomacy and U.S. threats for wider sanctions has raised hopes that Iran will finally abide by its latest agreement to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities. iranian nuclearization causes nuclear war by a regional nuclear arms race Joseph Cirincione (Senior Vice President for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress), April 4, 2006, Interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/publication/10331/ They want to deter a United States or possibly Israeli attack, and they want the prestige that such a weapon would give them for their regional ambitions. And it's exactly for those reasons that other countries in the region would react. Saudi Arabia could not tolerate the political, military, and diplomatic power that a nuclear weapon would give Iran. And that's the great danger—that other countries in the region would start exploring their nuclear options. There are already stories that Saudi Arabia is cooperating with the Pakistanis on nuclear research. We don't know if this is true, but we do know that the Saudis bankrolled the Pakistani nuclear program. My great fear is that the Saudis might take a nuclear shortcut, and invite Pakistan to station some of its nuclear weapons on Saudi territory. This, in fact, would actually be legal under the NonProliferation Treaty, which Saudi Arabia is a member of, just the way the United States stations nuclear weapons in Europe. Egypt might also react. They used to have a nuclear program in the 1960s; they might decide that they have to beat the Iranian challenge in their own way. So might Turkey. In fact, if there's a unified government of Iraq within five years, Iraq—long-term foe of Iran—might consider that it needs to balance Iranian power. So that's really the great threat, is that you would go from a Middle East with one nuclear weapons state, Israel, to one with three, four, or five nuclear weapons states with the remaining political, economic, and ethnic conflicts unresolved. That's a recipe for nuclear war.

72

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Coop on Iran Prolif Now
US and EU cooperating on Iranian Prolif now Robert J. Einhorn, former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, 2004, Washington Quarterly, A Transatlantic
Strategy on Iran’s Nuclear Program, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/wash.2004.27.4.21 Although views may differ across the Atlantic on whether Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons or only a nuclear weapons option, they appear to have converged on two crucial matters. First, the consensus seems to be that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would be disastrous for the stability of the Middle East and for the future of the global nonproliferation regime. Both President George W. Bush and Democratic presiden- tial candidate Senator John Kerry (Mass.) have called such a development “unacceptable.” Although Europeans avoid such categorical formulations, they have repeatedly expressed strong opposition to Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Second, transatlantic agreement seems to have formed that persuading Iran to give up its own fissile material production capability, regardless of Iran’s true motivation for seeking it—whether to produce reactor fuel indigenously, to give itself a future nuclear option, or to build nuclear weapons as soon as possible—is essential. Both the Americans and Europeans fully appreciate that a country has gone most of the distance toward nuclear weapons once it has the ability to enrich uranium or produce plutonium. Because a determined proliferator could at any time withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), kick out inspectors, and proceed to turn previously safeguarded nuclear material into bombs, they further recognize that putting Iran’s capability under the IAEA’s verification is not an adequate solution.

73

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Cooperation on Prolif Now
US-EU cooperation currently solving prolif Dalia Dassa Kaye, political scientist and a member of the research staff in the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND, Winter 03/04, Bound to Cooperate? Transatlantic Policy in the Middle East, Washington Quarterly,
Although Europeans may not be as inclined to conflate the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) with that of terrorism, as is the tendency in current U.S. policy circles, European concern about the proliferation of unconventional weapons and the missile systems able to deliver them is growing. Even prior to the war in Iraq, common concerns about proliferation partly explain the initial U.S.-European agreement on United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441 calling for the disarmament of Iraq in the fall of 2002. Since the Iraq war, WMD is creeping toward the top of the European agenda. The war in Iraq and the diplomatic dispute prior to it provided a catalyst for Europe to place proliferation higher on its agenda and reexamine its policies to combat this threat. This shift reflected a general, pragmatic reaction to align Europe’s policies more closely with the United States to help repair transatlantic relations as well as relations within Europe after the Iraq rupture. Europeans did not want to be marginalized and divided as they were in Iraq, and major European states such as France and Germany recognized that a united Europe was necessary for the projection of European power externally. Moreover, European governments were confronted with substantial evidence of significant Iranian efforts to acquire a nuclear weapons capability. Consequently, the EU issued a new policy to confront WMD at the European Council meeting in Thessaloniki in late June 2003 that included considering coercive measures if diplomatic efforts to stem proliferation in certain problem states failed, marking a dramatic departure from the previous European, particularly German, aversion to the use of force in such scenarios. 5 As a result, the EU is now pursuing an approach to proliferation that more actively addresses countries of concern (e.g., Iran, North Korea, and Libya) rather than relying solely on existing international agreements to do the job. Although Europeans are still strong believers in international regimes, they increasingly recognize the implementation and compliance problems of accords such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Thus, like the United States, Europe is now focusing less on broadening international arms control regimes and more on improving the implementation of existing treaties, particularly those regarding nuclear weapons. Perhaps the best example of growing convergence on the threat of proliferation is the case of Iran. Traditionally, the United States and Europe have taken very different approaches. While the United States has preferred policies of containment, economic sanctions, and the threat of force, European states have favored policies of engagement and have been reluctant to link their economic and political relations with Tehran’s proliferation activity. Now, however, the European position is shifting toward that of Washington. In mid-June 2003, the foreign ministers of the EU’s member states released a statement critical of Iran’s nuclear program and demanded that Iran accept more aggressive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). 6 Most critical, the EU for the first time specifically linked the trade and cooperation agreement it is negotiating with Tehran to the nuclear issue, signaling that Europe is willing to employ economic levers to address the proliferation problem. The French, in contrast to their stance on Iraq, have actively supported this tougher position toward Iran. Their motivations for doing so are unclear, whether a desire to mend fences with the United States and within Europe, a desire to maintain its nuclear status by limiting the number of nuclear powers, or in reaction to increasingly unambiguous intelligence suggesting that Iran is actively seeking a nuclear weapons program. Clearly, however, the resultant EU policy toward Iran is closer to the U.S. position than was previously the case. The tougher EU stance appears, for now, to have paid off as the foreign ministers of Great Britain, France, and Germany brokered a deal in late October 2003 whereby Iran agreed to cooperate with the IAEA, sign the Additional Protocol, and suspend all uranium enrichment and processing activities.

74

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-Eu Key to Iran Prolif

US-EU cooperation to stop Iranian prolif Robert J. Einhorn, former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, 2004, Washington Quarterly, A Transatlantic
Strategy on Iran’s Nuclear Program, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/wash.2004.27.4.21 Both the United States and Europe have critical roles to play in framing the choice for Iran. Thus far, the Bush administration has played the bad cop and the Europeans have played the good cop. The United States has branded Iran a member of the “axis of evil”; urged the IAEA board to find Iran in noncompliance with the NPT and to send the matter to the Security Council; opposed all nuclear cooperation with Iran, including Russia’s construction of a power reactor at Bushehr; and broken off even limited bilateral contacts with Iran. The EU 3, on the other hand, have preferred carrots to sticks. They promised to enhance high-technology trade with Iran, including in the civil nuclear area, and opposed efforts to take the issue to New York if Tehran abides by the October 2003 deal. European sticks have usually taken the form of deferred carrots, such as the EU’s postponement of further talks with Iran on a Trade and Cooperation Agreement until the nuclear issue is resolved. Such actions do not hurt Iran; they simply threaten to take away future gains.

US-EU cooperation to stop Iranian prolif Roberto Aliboni, Vice-President at the International Affairs Institute-IAI in Rome, 11-26-2005, EUROPE ’ S ROLE IN THE
GULF: A TRANSATLANTIC PERSPECTIVE, http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iai0532.pdf On the other hand, the EU-3 initiative towards Iran shows that Europe can play a security role based on its own principles and objectives. True, the EU-3 initiative did not succeed. However this was due less to weaknesses in the European diplomatic platform than to the changes that cropped up in Iran’s international and domestic conditions. If European diplomacy proved unable to come to terms with the radicals now in power at Teheran, the United States cannot hope to coerce Iran either, for a number of evident reasons: Iraq is overstretching American forces; Iraq ’ s weakness and the role the Shiites play in the country are objectively reinforcing Teheran; and the UN Security Council ’ s constellation is not necessarily in favour of the West. While these conditions have brought about – as tactical as it may be – a transatlantic rapprochement tilting towards European “ dialogue ” rather than US coercion, what is worth noting here is that the EU cooperative approach makes sense and may well evolve into a platform for joint transatlantic action. If this mixed picture is taken into consideration, what it seems to suggest is that Europe can play a security role in the Gulf precisely by developing and strengthening its own initiative. In a transatlantic perspective, autonomous reinforcement of the European and EU role in the region will be more helpful than participation in the inherently limited ICI operations. At the same time, a more autonomous European role is what the GCC countries, in particular, expect and desire. These countries are rather disappointed and concerned by the US' performance in the Gulf and its consequences. They see the reinforcement of the European presence in the GCC and the Gulf in general as a reassurance and a necessary balancing. Thus the EU is called upon to play a security role, beneficial to both the United States and the regional countries, in terms of more and bolder initiatives in the region. At the end of the day, all it has to do is to be more assertive and confident in renewing and enhancing its links with the GCC, setting out a substantive and consistent strategy towards the region, and developing – wherever possible – its political initiative in the same way it did with the EU-3 negotiations with Iran. Finally, Europe should take note that a new regime is emerging in Iraq which deserves support. It is, in fact, high time for the Europeans to set out a policy towards Iraq, independently of transatlantic rifts.

75

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Solves Peace Process Module
US-EU relations key to Middle-East Peace Process WILLIAM DROZDIAK, Executive Director of the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Center in Brussels, Jan/Feb2005, The North Atlantic Drift. By: Drozdiak, William, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Jan/Feb 2005, Vol. 84, Issue 1, EBSCO, Business Source
Complete A more activist role for Europe could also have beneficial effects on efforts to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The United States has long been seen as the only outside power capable of extracting key concessions from Israel--including the dismantling of settlements in Gaza and the West Bank--while Europe has been relegated to giving humanitarian aid and financial support to the Palestinians. Yet a more activist EU role that offered trade and aid incentives to Israel could help bring the two sides back to the negotiating table. After all, despite close security ties to the United States, Israel still regards the EU as its most important economic partner.

Peace Process Necessary to Solve Largest War Ever
Charles K. Rowley, Prof. of Econ @ GMU, Michael J. Webb, @ Regulatory Economics Group, ‘7 [Public Choice 132, “Israel and Palestine: the slow road to peace or the fast track to mutual annihilation?” p. 8] Since May 14, 1948, when the British Mandate expired and David Ben Gurion declared the establishment of a Jewish State in Palestine, Jews and Arabs have engaged in continuous low-level conflict punctuated by seven major wars (Rowley and Taylor 2006a, 2006b). Indeed, Shughart suggests that much of the instability can be attributed to the haphazard way in which boundaries were drawn after the end of the FirstWorldWar (Shughart 2006, p. 34). This seemingly intractable conflict between Israelis and Arabs over the future of the Holy Land lies at the root of instability throughout the Middle East. In a world where weapons of mass destruction are becoming ever more accessible, the probability that this continuing friction may culminate in the elimination of the entire Middle East as a habitable region for generations to come cannot be ignored. In this commentary, we outline alternative scenarios for the Israel–Palestine land settlement problem as they have played themselves out during three time-periods, employing game theory within a public choice perspective.We attempt to identify the key determinants of the ultimate outcome of the current conflict, specifically, whether the Holy Land is on the slow road to peace or the fast track to mutual annihilation. Our basic hypothesis is that the Israel–Palestine game is not necessarily zero-sum, nor is it necessarily a prisoners’ dilemma. Rather it takes the form of a hawk–dove game in which peace-peace solutions are feasible, given the proper incentives. Of course, the hawk–dove game may also result in war–war, perhaps of the most destructive kind that the world so far has ever experienced.

76

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Solves Peace Process - Extension
The US and EU are cooperating on the Middle East Peace Process now Dalia Dassa Kaye, political scientist and a member of the research staff in the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND, Winter 03/04, Bound to Cooperate? Transatlantic Policy in the Middle East, Washington Quarterly,
Despite continued policy differences on the Arab-Israeli peace process, mutual concern about the negative effects of continued bloodshed on the wider Middle East provides another basis for transatlantic agreement. Even before the Iraq war, the deteriorating situation on the ground in Israel and the Palestinian territories in the aftermath of the outbreak of the second Intifada in September 2000 and the unwillingness of the United States fully to engage in the peacemaking process between Arabs and Israelis at the start of the Bush administration led to the formation of the Middle East Quartet (comprising the United States, the EU, the UN, and Russia) in the summer of 2002 and its subsequent road map for Middle East peace. The United States and Europe have never before coordinated so closely on the Middle East peace process, even if the United States is still the pivotal player. Considering the historical rifts across the Atlantic on peace process issues, the development of the Quartet is notable. The Europeans have finally obtained a political, not just economic, place at the peace process table while the gap appears to be narrowing between the two sides’ visions of a final settlement to the ArabIsraeli conflict. Both sides have moved closer to the other’s positions: the United States now supports a peace outcome (a twostate solution), not just a peace process (although many Europeans would like the United States to specify the contours of a final-status agreement, as occurred in the Clinton administration), while Europe has actively moved toward U.S. positions on Palestinian reform. The United States and Europe continue to disagree on the question of engaging Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (agreement among EU member states on this question is unanimous), but the EU supported U.S. efforts to promote reform of thePalestinian Authority (PA) and to establish a Palestinian prime minister to counterbalance Arafat’s authority. Despite growing frustration that neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians have implemented the road map—and European concern that the United States did not invest heavily enough in the effort—the road map constitutes the first joint U.S.-European effort to produce a peace plan. The Quartet has also served to coordinate European positions, helping to avoid the inclination for unilateral initiatives from major European powers that have tended to erode Washington’s confidence in a European partner in the past. Thus, even while regional developments (most notably continued terrorism and settlement activity) undermine the Quartet’s road map, the common U.S. and European fear of continued violence and its potential to destabilize the broader region provides a strong incentive for transatlantic cooperation in this ongoing conflict.

77

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations - Heg Module
US-EU relations key to heg – interdependence Robert E. Hunter, a senior fellow at RAND, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, 2003, Washington Quarterly, “Europe’s Leverage”
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016366003322596945?cookieSet=1 The destinies of the United States and Europe are now intertwined in such critical ways as to be inseparable. Policies, programs, and practices of states on each side of the Atlantic must be measured against this reality. Some Europeans believe that Europe, Russia, and China can create a bloc to balance U.S. power, and some Americans believe the United States can divide European states from one another or simply ignore them. These attitudes and actions, however, are and will continue to be based more on fantasy than analysis or understanding. The United States in particular, with all of its power and potential, ambitions and aspirations, must grasp this notion and act according to its logic. Nothing has happened to lessen the importance of the continent of Europe as the most important landmass—economically and politically—to be kept free of a hegemonic power at odds with U.S. interests, values, and objectives (the stuff of three world wars in the twentieth century). Europe still depends on U.S. power, influence, engagement, and leadership to be fully assured of its own independence, security, long-term prosperity, and in some places even domestic tranquility. Meanwhile, the U.S. and European economies, especially those of the European Union, are now so intermingled that both sides would suffer grievous injury if either tried to lessen their level of entanglement with one another significantly. The panoply of economic interaction between the United States and the EU, including trade in goods and services, investment, cross-ownership, travel, and finance, must now be valued in the trillions of dollars, with the power to control and influence rarely having a clear locus on one side of the Atlantic or the other; certainly neither side is able to claim decisive predominance. Indeed, transatlantic [End Page 91] economic interdependence is now so much a fact of life that the concept is no longer even questioned. At the same time, a broad array of relatively common values and institutions of incalculable worth bind the United States and Europe together, creating an interpenetration of influence unrivaled among any other set of major powers. Much of what the United States seeks to do elsewhere in the world will depend on its ability to gain the support and active engagement of European power—and European powers—politically, economically, and militarily.

Global nuclear exchange
Zalmay Khalilzad ’95 (Washington Quarterly, ln) Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

78

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations -Heg Extensions
US-EU cooperation key to heg – burdensharing and support Ivo H. Daalder, former director for European Affairs on the National Security Council, and James M. Goldgeier, former director of Russian affairs in the National Security Council, 2001, Survival, “Putting Europe First”
There are also fundamental political problems with such an approach. The unilateralism implied by assigning primary responsibility for global security and stability to the United States without support from or regard for the perspective of regional allies and other countries is hardly consistent with the desire, repeatedly emphasised by the incoming team, to exercise American power ‘without arrogance and to pursue its interests without hectoring and bluster’.4 At a time when the United States is already regarded by much of the world as an overbearing ‘hyperpower’, insisting on a division of labour that assigns Washington the main international security role to the exclusion of others is unlikely to be popular among its allies. Such a posture is also unlikely to be popular at home. In recent years, it has become very clear that the American public will support the use of US military forces overseas only if other countries share the burden. This is not only in the case of so-called humanitarian interventions, but also when it involves the defence of such vital national interests as the world’s supply of crude oil. In either case, international legitimacy of action and a commitment by other nations to share the costs will be a political prerequisite for gaining public support. Despite Europe’s internal weaknesses and divisions, no part of the world offers the United States a better prospect for becoming a strong partner in taking on global challenges and opportunities. Europe combines actual economic strength with potential military and diplomatic capacity to be America’s strategic partner, if not today, then tomorrow. And rather than assigning Europe a limited, albeit still important role, of handling its own affairs in ways that do not require US participation, as the new division of labour suggests, American interests are best served by developing a genuine partnership with a Europe that is both capable and willing to share the burdens of maintaining and strengthening international security.

79

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations -Heg Extensions
US-EU cooperation allows for burden-sharing, and reducing overstretch WILLIAM DROZDIAK, Executive Director of the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Center in Brussels, Jan/Feb2005, The North Atlantic Drift. By: Drozdiak, William, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Jan/Feb 2005, Vol. 84, Issue 1, EBSCO, Business Source
Complete U.S. and European assets are complementary. Europe's penchant for offering diplomatic incentives should be combined with America's tendency to threaten military force. Concerted diplomacy would help fulfill Europe's ambitions of playing a more assertive role in world affairs while encouraging it to work more closely in partnership with the United States. At the same time, presenting a unified front would restore to U.S. action the international legitimacy that the Bush administration's strong-arm unilateralism has tarnished. Washington should allow its allies in Europe to take the lead in exploring new policy initiatives in regions where they enjoy greater influence or historical connections. Consider Iran, for example. The Bush administration was skeptical about Iran's proclamation that its nuclear activities were only peaceful, but it encouraged Europe to make a last-ditch effort to persuade Tehran to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities and reassure the world that it is not trying to build nuclear weapons. European diplomats say Iran's refusal to accept Europe's best offer, including enhanced trade possibilities and assured nuclear fuel supplies, would almost certainly trigger EU support for the UN sanctions that the United States is advocating. Indeed, the combination of European diplomacy and U.S. threats for wider sanctions has raised hopes that Iran will finally abide by its latest agreement to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities. A more activist role for Europe could also have beneficial effects on efforts to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians. The United States has long been seen as the only outside power capable of extracting key concessions from Israel--including the dismantling of settlements in Gaza and the West Bank--while Europe has been relegated to giving humanitarian aid and financial support to the Palestinians. Yet a more activist EU role that offered trade and aid incentives to Israel could help bring the two sides back to the negotiating table. After all, despite close security ties to the United States, Israel still regards the EU as its most important economic partner. Diplomatic burden-sharing would relieve the United States of carrying the lion's share of responsibilities for regional peacekeeping. It would also help disprove the reputation for "free riding" that Europeans have earned, critics say, by sometimes shirking difficult military missions knowing that the United States would pick up the slack. In the Balkans, where the EU will soon take control of all international peacekeeping, this kind of recalibration is already underway. And there could be more shifting of duties. Indeed, the European allies have adapted their military forces to the post-Cold War environment better than American critics usually admit. The United States has about 1.4 million men and women in its armed forces, with about 400,000 troops available for foreign deployment. The 25 EU states have 1.9 million in their armed forces, and although today only about 50,000 can be sent abroad, that figure is expected to reach 200,000 over the next decade. The $175 billion combined annual defense budget of EU members may seem paltry against the United States' nearly $500 billion budget for the current fiscal year, but it exceeds the military budgets of China, Japan, and Russia combined. Moreover, several key projects have been launched to rectify Europe's military shortcomings and equip it with a long-range air transport fleet, an autonomous satellite reconnaissance system, new precision-guided weapons, and hundreds of light transport helicopters. There are now 19,000 troops from 15 European NATO countries in Iraq and 7,000 European soldiers in the NATO peacekeeping contingent in Afghanistan. In the Balkans, American troops are outnumbered by the 30,000 European forces who have assumed command of peacekeeping contingents in nearly all of the region's hot spots, including Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Macedonia. Anticipating that future missions will require street patrols rather than blazing firepower, a new 5,000-strong EU police force has been established for peacekeeping duties abroad. Three such missions were conducted under the EU flag in 2003, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bosnia, and Macedonia.

80

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Bioterror Module
Transatlantic efforts key to contain bioterrorism and epidemics Richard A. Chilcoat, Commandant of the U.S. Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, Joseph R. Cerami, Retired U.S. Army
Colonel and Director of the Public Service Leadership Program for the Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, and Patrick B Baetjer Research Assistant to the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 5-12-2006, The Future of Transatlantic Security Relations Atlantic Storm showed that even experienced international leaders, when faced with an unfolding epidemic and the resulting uncertainty, would have limited options and stark choices, given the conditions that exist today. Preparation is essential: international leaders cannot be expected to develop the requisite response systems in the midst of a crisis. The exercise made clear that there is much that can be done to improve overall biosecurity for both intentional and natural epidemics—a critical lesson given the growing possibility of an avian infuenza pandemic. Transatlantic and international initiatives to enhance biosecurity—the Global Health Security Action Group, the European Commission’s Heath Security Committee, the recently announced International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Infuenza—are beginning to gain prominence, but much more work is needed. The nations of the Atlantic Community should lead this effort and include as many partners as possible. What is needed is a multilayered, comprehensive effort that seeks to render nations essentially immune to mass lethality and other destabilizing effects of the epidemics that would be caused by the most serious biosecurity threats. While no single tool holds the key to success, a variety of approaches could complement and reinforce each other. The core challenge in addressing bioterrorism (as also is true for naturally occurring epidemics) is to control and minimize the devastation of disease, thereby diminishing any reward that could result from pursuit of an intentional attack and the incentive for staging one.

Use Means Extinction - Outweigh Nux
Michael Horowitz, PhD in Poli Sci @ Harvard,‘5 [Prepared for the Midlwest Political Sciene Association Annual Meeting, “Does Proliferation Matter? Assessing the Empirical Impact of Biological, Chemical and Nuclear Weapons on International Security,” p.19] Though biological weapons are difficult to deliver, Steinbrunner (1997) argues the consequences of their use are almost unlimited. Given the new possibilities for genetic manipulations made possible by modern science, biological weapons could threaten the future of human civilization. The Office of Technology Assessment, while cautioning that the probability of effective use is much lower than for nuclear weapons, concluded in 1993 that, pound for pound, biological weapons might be more devastating for human populations than nuclear weapons (OTA 1993, 52). Even though the probability of effective use is low, the enormous magnitude may instantly make the use of biological weapons a credible threat. United States policy makers certainly take the threat seriously. In an oft-repeated statement on the risk of biological warfare, the Office of Technology Assessment also noted that the distribution of 100kg of anthrax in the air over a city could kill up to three million people (BBC 1998). As with chemical weapons, while defensive measures can mitigate the terminal impact of use, in cases of asymmetric capabilities, the threat to use biological weapons could be especially credible. Also similarly to chemical weapons, it is the fear of the impact of biological weapons, even more than a rational cost-benefit analysis that makes them important for international politics. The possibility of mass disease in the homeland or among troops deployed abroad, is frightening (Mauroni 2003, XV). This alternative view of chemical and biological weapons leads to the following hypothesis.

81

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Bioterror - Extensions
International cooperation solves bioterrrorism Marc L. Ostfield , Senior Advisor on Bioterrorism, Biodefense, and Health Security September 14, 2005 Remarks at NATO
Conference on Elements of Combating WMD Terrorism Warsaw, Poland, “Intersectoral and International Cooperation on Combating Bioterrorism” http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/56614.htm Combating Bioterrorism Benefits Global Health Even if nations do not see completely eye to eye on the importance of combating bioterrorism, there is an additional and very compelling argument for sustained and enhanced international collaboration on these efforts. The essential pillars I have described hreat awareness, prevention and protection, surveillance and detection, response and recovery, have the added benefit of simultaneously strengthening global health protection overall. Virtually everything we do to defend against bioterrorism improving disease surveillance and detection systems, enhancing cross-border communication, facilitating international laboratory cooperation, and developing mechanisms for international sharing of medical countermeasures, for example benefit all of us in the event of a naturally-occurring outbreak or a bioterror attack. As the growing concerns about avian and pandemic influenza make clear, international cooperation is absolutely critical to any effective strategy for national and global preparedness, prevention, containment, and response. Awareness of this fortunate synergy of efforts is not new. After the SARS outbreak in 2003, for example, a CIA-sponsored panel of experts concluded that "the early containment of SARS in the U.S. was greatly facilitated by existing bioterrorism preparedness measures." Both naturally-occurring outbreaks and bioterrorism point the way toward a clear recognition of the complexity of the health, economic, political, and security threats posed by disease and the need for strong links between health, agriculture, and security sectors, and between domestic and international actions. A great challenge of the 21st century is to prevent the deliberate use of disease as a weapon from killing millions, destabilizing economies and disrupting societies. The great security opportunity of this new century is to eliminate massively lethal epidemics of infectious disease by ensuring that biodefense humanity’s timeless struggle to prevent and defeat disease is far more potent than the inevitable attempts to create and use bioweapons.

Coordination on terrorism now Dalia Dassa Kaye, political scientist and a member of the research staff in the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND, Winter 03/04, Bound to Cooperate? Transatlantic Policy in the Middle East, Washington Quarterly,
The common threat of international terrorism, particularly after September 11, 2001, has produced some robust transatlantic cooperation. According to a 2002 Chicago Council on Foreign Relations/German Marshall Fund poll as well as the Transatlantic Trends 2003 poll, Americans and Europeans rank international terrorism as the most serious threat to national security. This opinion helps explain the widespread European support for the U.S. operation to remove the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as strengthened intelligence gathering and sharing in the transatlantic community. Bilateral U.S.-European working groups now meet regularly to coordinate and improve law enforcement measures to contain the movement of terrorists and limit their sources of funding. After September 11, 2001, the member nations of the European Union moved uncharacteristically quickly to harmonize their extradition procedures, and Europe is currently in the process of drafting a treaty on extradition with the United States despite ongoing concerns about the U.S. death penalty. The common threat, particularly the threat of a catastrophic terrorist attack, is likely to bind the United States and Europe in common cause for many years to come, even if approaches to the threat are likely to differ.4

82

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations Solves War - General
US/EU relations prevent global conflict. Asmus 2003 (Ronald D.; Senior Fellow - Council on Foreign Relations) Rebuilding the Atlantic Alliance" Foreign Affairs Sept/Oct
l/n Meeting in Washington in the spring of 1999, NATO leaders pledged to recast the transatlantic relationship to make sure it is as good at dealing with the problems of the next 50 years as it was in dealing with those of the last. September 11 has opened eyes in both the United States and Europe to those problems and may have heralded the beginning of a dangerous century. It is clearly desirable for both sides of the Atlantic to coalesce in meeting the challenges of this new era. If major instability erupts in either the region lying between Europe and Russia or in the greater Middle East, both the United States and Europe are likely to be drawn in to deal with it. Their ability to do so successfully will be much greater if they find a way to rebuild their alliance around a common framework and strategy. There is little doubt that if leaders of the caliber of Truman and his European counterparts existed today, they would be setting a new strategic direction and rebuilding the alliance to meet precisely these challenges. Whether President Bush, Jacques Chirac, and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder are up to the task remains to be seen. Progress may very well require regime change on one or both sides of the Atlantic. One thing, however, is clear: if today's leaders fail to achieve such progress, both the United States and Europe will be worse off. Transatlantic strategic cooperation is one reason why the second half of the twentieth century was so much better than the first. If the United States and Europe can agree on a common strategy to meet the challenges of the new era, the world will be much the better for it.

US-EU relations prevents war John O'Sullivan, editor of The National Interest, March 2004,
The report's starting point -- that U.S.-European relations are extremely important -- is undeniable. A united Western alliance would shape world institutions in line with values and practices rooted in liberty and democracy and coax rising powers such as India and China into going along with this international status quo for the foreseeable future. Indeed, this is already happening as China accepts liberal economic rules at home in order to enter institutions such as the G7 and the World Trade Organization. By contrast, a disunited West would tempt such powers to play off Europe and America against each other and foster a global jockeying for power not unlike the maneuvering between a half-dozen great powers that led to 1914.

83

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations Solves War - General
Relations solve European balancing and nuclear war Mearsheimer 2001 (John J., R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of
Chicago, "The Future of the American Pacifier", Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct., Ebsco) Without the American pacifier, Europe is not guaranteed to remain peaceful. Indeed, intense security competition among the great powers would likely ensue because, upon American withdrawal, Europe would go from benign bipolarity to unbalanced multipolarity, the most dangerous kind of power structure. The United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany would have to build up their own military forces and provide for their own security. In effect, they would all become great powers, making Europe multipolar and raising the ever-present possibility that they might fight among themselves. And Germany would probably become a potential hegemon and thus the main source of worry. Looking at Europe today, such a forecast might appear far-fetched, but that is because few are prepared to consider how radically the European security environment will be transformed by the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Once the major European powers are forced to provide for their awn defense, suspicions among them are certain to grow, thereby triggering the familiar dynamics of great-power competition. The kind of trouble that might lie ahead for Europe can be illustrated by considering how particular German measures aimed at enhancing its security might nevertheless lead to instability. If the United States removed its security umbrella from over western Europe, Germany would likely move to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. This would be the case both because nuclear weapons are an excellent deterrent, as Germany's governing elites recognized during the Cold War, but also because it would be the best way to escape potential coercion by its three nuclear-armed neighbors. During the proliferation process, however, these neighbors would probably contemplate using force to prevent Germany from going nuclear, and the result could be a major crisis. Without the American military on its territory, furthermore, Germany would probably increase the size of its army and certainly would be more inclined to try to dominate central Europe. Why? Because Germany would fear Russian control of that critically important buffer zone between them. Of course, Russia would have the same fear in reverse, which would likely lead to a serious security competition between them for control of central Europe. France, meanwhile, would undoubtedly view such behavior by Germany with alarm and take measures to protect itself—for example, by increasing its defense spending and establishing closer relations with Russia. Germany, of course, would perceive these actions as hostile and respond with measures of its own.

84

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Trade Solves LL
US-EU trade relations are crucial to prevent terrorism, environmental destruction, disease and economic collapse Andrew Moravcsik, Professor of Government and Director of the European Union Program at Harvard University, 2003,
"Striking a New Transatlantic Bargain," Foreign Affairs, July-August 2003, lexis DECENT DIPLOMACY The easiest way to overcome the recent troubles would be for the United States and Europe to manage controversial high-stakes issues delicately while continuing to work together on other subjects that matter to both sides. This is how the Western alliance has functioned for most of its history -- protecting core cooperation in European and nonmilitary matters, while disagreeing about "out of area" intervention and, sometimes, nuclear strategy. Today this lowest-common-denominator policy should still unite nearly all Western leaders. The transatlantic partnership remains the most important diplomatic relationship in the world, and so the allies have much to protect. Together, the United States and Europe account for 70 percent of world trade. The success of the Doha Round of global trade negotiations -- which promises much for the developing world -- could contribute greatly to long-term global security. Ongoing cooperation on intelligence and law enforcement is indispensable to successful counterterrorism. An expanded NATO is now widely recognized as a force for democracy and stability. Western governments have unanimously authorized a dozen humanitarian interventions over the last ten years. They work together on many other issues, including human rights, environmental policy, disease control, and financial regulation. Failure to cauterize and contain disputes such as that over Iraq threatens all of this cooperation, as would any deliberate U.S. strategy of trying to weaken or divide international organizations like the UN, the EU, or NATO.

US-EU relations solve terrorism, prolif, trade, and democracy Doug Bereuter, president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and John Lis, former director of the assembly's Defense and Security Committee in Brussels, Winter 03/04, Broadening the Transatlantic Relationship, Washington Quarterly,
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016366003322596972 On both sides, some have concluded from the recent dispute that Europe should define itself in opposition to the United States to constrain U.S. power, only bolstering the case of a few who advocate that the United States obstruct efforts to form a united Europe. Yet, the reality is that ors NATO have a future in out of area missions? Will the European Union's plans for an independent military force be a threat to the transatlantic relationship? Should the EU have a planning cell within NATO or not? Will the American space program collide with Europe's evolving space policy? Will China be able to buy arms from the Europeans over the objections of the U.S. government? All of these are relevant and important questions, to be sure. But with the backdrop of the global war on terror, it does indeed feel — as one participant noted after the session "The Global War on Terror: Transatlantic Challenges and Transatlantic Cooperation" — as though we are rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. The existential question is whether we are engaged in a clash of civilizations, as historian Samuel Huntington famously has described it, or in a war against a particularly vicious and potent form of terrorism. What emerged from the Wilton Park discussions is that while terrorists on one level operate in a highly globalized environment in cyberspace, we do have the power to pre-empt that capacity. We can fight a high-tech war against them, using all the means of modern technology, from satellites to track cell phones to cyberspace policing to shut down Web sites. If we in the West are not to hang separately, if we are in a war, surely we should cooperate. The question is how far are we prepared — if at all — to impinge on the civil liberties that make our civilization what it is in order to save it.

85

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU key to Indo-Pak
US-EU cooperation solves conflicts over Kashmir News Network International, 10-9-2003, US, EU Urged To Facilitate Negotiations On Kashmir, http://www.jammukashmir.com/archives/archives2003/kashmir20031009a.html Executive Director of Kashmiri American Council, Dr Ghulam Nabi Fai has urged the United States and European Union to help resolve the lingering Kashmir issue. He was addressing the Kashmir Conference organized by the International Council of Human Rights in Brussels, KMS reported. He said, Kashmir issue involves the life and future of 13 million people of the land. Because of its impact on relations between India and Pakistan, it directly effects the peace and stability of the South Asian sub-continent, he said. He maintained that due to Indian obduracy and world apathy, the issue remained unresolved so far, otherwise, the dispute was not insoluble. He said, Kashmir issue can be resolved only in accordance with the will of the people, which can be ascertained through free and impartial plebiscite, guaranteed by United Nations Security Council resolutions and prominently championed by the United States, Britain and other democratic states. He urged the United States and the European Union to support Kashmiris get their birth right. He also urged them to facilitate negotiations on Kashmir because bilateral talks in past have failed to produce any results.

86

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU key to Central Asian stability
US-EU cooperation key to Central Asian stability Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, 2-17-2005, U.S.-EU Cooperation on Reform in Eurasia,
http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/fs/42562.htm The United States and the European Union (EU) share a common goal of promoting successful transitions to democracy and market-based economies in Eurasia. We share a common goal in combating threats to regional stability and the transition process: crime and corruption; illicit narcotics; weapons of mass destruction; and trafficking of persons. We coordinate our policy messages and our assistance programs in order to maximize their impact. Recent successful examples of U.S.-EU cooperation in promoting democratization, free media, respect for human rights and key economic reforms include: * In Georgia, the U.S. and EU have worked closely together to support a smooth transition for that country's new leadership in the wake of the "Revolution of the Roses." We continue to work together to support the aspirations of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to further integrate into the Euro-Atlantic family. The EU’s European Neighborhood Policy and NATO’s Partnership for Peace promote the values we share in common with Europe, and build deeper connections between the nations of the South Caucasus and the more established democracies of the West; * In Ukraine, we joined forces to promote free and fair local and presidential elections in 2004, which contributed to the Ukrainian people’s rejection of electoral fraud and to the historic repeat vote on December 26. In Belarus, the EU and United States have coordinated at an unprecedented level, including by conducting a joint diplomatic mission to Minsk in the Spring of 2004 to send a clear and united message on democratization, and by enacting travel restrictions on those officials implicated in election malfeasance and human rights violations. In Moldova, we also coordinated travel restrictions against the leadership of the Transnistrian separatists, and are promoting a free and fair campaign and parliamentary election on March 6; * The U.S. and EU recognize the challenge to security and stability of the South Caucasus and Black Sea regions posed by the unresolved conflicts in the area of Eurasia. We support the territorial integrity of Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan and cooperate to facilitate international efforts to achieve peaceful political settlements to the conflicts over Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Nagorno-Karabakh; * In Central Asia, the United States and European Union work together to support democratic and economic transition, protection of human rights, promoting good governance/rule of law, increased regional trade, and humanitarian and human development. We also cooperate in the effort to combat trade in opium and heroin from Afghanistan—a serious threat to peace and stability and a growing public health concern in the region. The U.S., European Commission, and EU member states, working with the United Nations agencies, closely coordinate our assistance programs to boost Central Asian states’ capabilities to meet this threat. U.S. and EU assistance efforts have provided much-needed training, equipment, physical infrastructure, and more effective government institutions.

87

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU key to Disease
US-EU cooperation key to solve disease pandemics Robert E. Hunter, a senior fellow at RAND, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, 2003, Washington Quarterly, “Europe’s Leverage”
http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016366003322596945?cookieSet=1 More generally, Western security, as broadly understood, faces a wide range of actual and potential challenges where nonmilitary instruments are important. Preventing communicable diseases from coming to a nation’s shores, especially in a world of easy and frequent travel, is one such case; less well understood is the value of promoting health in countries where its absence can help produce conflict, support for terrorism, and social and economic breakdown—potential security as well as humanitarian concerns that can operate beyond the borders of the immediately affected country or region. Health is not alone; the full range of issues that cluster under the rubrics of development and environment, broadly understood, are part of this canon. Strategic Partnership to Shape the Future These points may seem far afield from the original discussion of what power and influence Europe can wield, how Europe relates to the United States, and how seriously the United States should take Europe, but they are not. Indeed, the greatest potential for agreement and reinforcement of action in the transatlantic world falls in the area of advance effort, of trying to prevent the emergence of threats in common to the United States and Europe. The United States and the European states should be looking for means to augment traditional politicalmilitary security cooperation, that is, the mutual harnessing and rationalizing to common ends of the military power on the two sides of the Atlantic, primarily through NATO. Even though that cooperation continues to be important to both sides, they should also be looking for ways to build on the obvious and ineluctable intertwining of their respective economies, shared leadership of the global economy, and interests and capabilities in a wide range of third areas, especially health, education, development, promotion of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law as well as other aspects of society, nation, and institution building.

Lack of cooperation makes diseases inevitable James Dobbins, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, 2005 “New directions for transatlantic security
cooperation” Survival Global Politics and Strategy, Ingenta Connect Yet, if the immediate prospects for transatlantic defence cooperation are bleak, the arguments in favour of a common approach remain compelling. America's failure to stabilise Iraq, when contrasted with the Alliance's greater successes in the Balkans, and even Afghanistan, has underscored the limits of unilateralism. Across much of the globe, the continued fragmentation of nation states, the increase in ungoverned space, and the unwanted immigration, disease, crime and terrorism that these conditions breed continue to compel attention. If the United States cannot count on European support to defend South Korea or Taiwan, neither is that support essential. In confronting the challenges of stabilisation, reconstruction and nation-building, however, there is no alternative to collective action.

88

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU key to Bird Flu
Multilateral efforts are key to solve bird flu UN.org, 6-2006, U.S.-EU Summit Declaration: Promoting Peace, Human Rights and Democracy Worldwide,
http://www.un.org/democracyfund/Docs/EU-US_Summit_Delcaration_June2006.pdf We reiterate our support for multilateral efforts to improve prevention and combat global health threats such as the spread of pandemics, including HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Tuberculosis, and other communicable diseases like SARS and Hepatitis. We agree that priority should be given to promoting effective control measures in animal health as a means to reduce outbreaks of H5N1 in birds. We will further increase regional and global cooperation between states, international organizations and civil society in mitigating and preparing for a pandemic, to which input by the International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza is welcome. We will further improve coordination of our response to natural disasters that have cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.

US-EU cooperation key to contain bird flu pandemics EuropeanInstitute.org, 2-1-2006, European Health and Consumer Protection Policies: Toward Cooperation with the U.S. on
Nutrition and the Avian Flu, http://www.europeaninstitute.org/content.php?section=biotech Europe and the U.S. now face many of the same public health challenges, including issues related to nutrition and physical activity, and the threat of infectious diseases such as avian influenza. Public health officials on both sides of the Atlantic could benefit from increased communication as they work to respond to these challenges. As part of its Forum on Biotechnology, Health and Consumer Protection, The European Institute conducted a special discussion with Robert Madelin, Director-General for Health and Consumer Protection of the European Commission, who addressed health problems caused by obesity, the need for coordinated public responses to the spread of avian influenza, and the emerging risks and promises of nanotechnology. Each issue, Mr. Madelin stated, offers a platform on which transatlantic cooperation can be strengthened. With obesity rates in Europe approaching those in the U.S., both could do more to share best practices to promote appropriate life skills in populations where obesity can be a greater health risk than cigarette smoking. On the avian flu and the threat of a pandemic flu, Mr. Madelin noted that the leadership and processes established at the recent Beijing conference will maximize the chances that when the pandemic happens, vaccines will be produced in critical mass as fast as possible, and its impact both on lives and on livelihoods minimized. He also stressed the importance of regulation in the emerging field of nanotechnology, and the need for government regulators in this area to keep pace with scientific advances, to "talk to each other before we know what we think." John B. Reynolds, Senior Manager for Government and Trade Affairs of The Iams Company/P&G Pet Health and Nutrition, served as Chair of the Forum.

89

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU  NMD
NMDs are inevitable, but won’t work without US-EU cooperation Philip H. Gordon, former director for European Affairs at the National Security Council, 2-2001, Bush, Missile Defence and
the Atlantic Alliance, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2001/02defense_gordon/2001survival.pdf Intensive allied discussions of the missile defence issue over the past year have helped to narrow some of the big gaps that have divided the alliance on this issue. As a result of these discussions, Europeans have a better understanding of the reality of the growing ballistic-missile threat (and the options for dealing with it), and Americans have a better appreciation of the need to move deliberately and fully consider the potential international implications of a deployment. As the previous sections make clear, however, the transatlantic gaps remain large. While it is possible that a set of external developments — the emergence of a clear and realistic missile and WMD threat that would persuade Europeans of the need for active defences, or alternatively very positive developments in Iran, Iraq and North Korea that would persuade Americans that they are not needed — the more likely scenario is that Europeans and Americans continue to disagree on the net assessment of the need for national missile defence over the next several years. In this context, how should they proceed? Most essential is for all allies — and in particular the Americans — to realise that it is highly desirable, if not imperative, that Americans and Europeans act in concert. At the most basic level, given the current US need for radars in the UK and Greenland, NMD may simply fail to work if the United States does not get cooperation from Europe. This is also true for any eventual boost-phase systems, which would also need Europeans to supply bases, ports, or airfields.

90

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU  NMD
Concessions to EU will exchange with full-scale NMDs David Malone, president of the International Peace Academy in New York, and Ramesh Thakur, vice rector of the United Nations University in Tokyo, 2-11-2001, Trade NMD for the CTBT, http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20010311a2.html
There can be little doubt that the Bush administration does not incline naturally toward multilateral diplomacy and a treatybased international security system. Nevertheless, it will not wish to alienate close allies on more than one or two issues at a time and may soon find itself engaged in give-and-take with them. Its top priority appears to be the further development and eventual deployment of a national missile defense system, a U.S. idea that has long unsettled not only Russia and China, but also key European allies and Canada. It could well decide, among other measures, that ratification of the CTBT had become useful to reassure allies and foes alike. Regardless of their views on NMD, U.S. allies and foes now need to consider their own strategies. Indefinitely stamping their feet on an issue that may be nonnegotiable in essence but negotiable in specifics and at the margins, would be self-defeating. NMD is not something the allies, Moscow or Beijing can stop. However, they could well influence the context within which NMD will be developed, its ultimate scope and its detailed aims. Their eventual consent can also be exchanged against concessions from Washington on related or different issues.

US and EU are diverging over issues like climate change, preventing NMDs ANTONY J. BLINKEN, former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for European Affairs, May 2001, The False
Crisis Over the Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, Lexis This distaste for American values is matched by concern that the United States acts like a bull in the global china shop, causing a strategic split with Europe over matters such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and national missile defense (NMD). To these Europeans, America's reluctance to join the global land-mines ban, the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the Kyoto Protocol on global warming evidences selfish unilateralism. Its fixation with "states of concern" (formerly known as "rogues") is at best naive, at worst -- in the case of sanctions against Iraq -- "genocidal." Europeans are skeptical of American support for European integration, especially in defense. And they fear that the United States and Europe are fated to economic warfare as trade disputes spiral out of control. Together, the "values gap" and the "strategic split" form the core of a newly fashionable argument advanced by European elites -- and reflected by their American counterparts -- that the United States and Europe are growing apart. But a closer look shows that, far from diverging, the United States and Europe are converging culturally, economically, and with some effort, strategically. This false crisis makes it more difficult to deal with those differences that do exist and reap the potential of a partnership that can benefit Americans and Europeans far into the future.

US-EU cooperation allows for NMDs Ivo H. Daalder, former director for European Affairs on the National Security Council, and James M. Goldgeier, former director of Russian affairs in the National Security Council, 2001, Survival, “Putting Europe First”
Never comfortable with the idea of deploying defences against ballistic missile attacks, and given the state of the existing technology, President Clinton deferred a decision on deploying NMD to his successor.’° But even if the technology remains uncertain, the Bush administration will have to decide the issue early in its tenure in order to be in a position to deploy even a limited system by 2006—07, by which time a state like North Korea or Iraq could possess the capability to conduct a smallscale missile attack. Top officials have suggested that the administration will decide to proceed with deployment, but that still leaves the president to decide what kind of system to deploy and how to deal with the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which bars the deployment of any system he might favour. Rice has called the ABM Treaty a ‘relic’ of the Cold War and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has dismissed it as ‘ancient history’.” Much of Europe, meanwhile, has been nervous about being left out of a deployment decision, about Russia’s adverse reaction, about the consequences for multilateral efforts to stem weapons proliferation, and about a scenario in which America can defend itself but not its allies from missile attacks.’2 In addition to avoiding a serious rift in the alliance, there is also a more practical need to garner some European support for an American missile defence programme: a serious system will require upgrading radars in Greenland and the United Kingdom, which means that, at the very least, officials in Copenhagen and London will have to back the effort.

91

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations - Turns Case - Climate

US-EU cooperation is key to successful climate change policies – now is the key time Julianne Smith, director of the CSIS Europe Program, 2008, “The Transatlantic Climate Change Challenge” The Washington
Quarterly, Winter 2007-2008, l/n Both sides of the Atlantic appear to be moving away from their disparate steadfast convictions on the best means to address climate change. Political elites are increasingly promoting a hybrid approach that will draw on technological advances and some international regulation. Despite such achievements, Europe and the United States have much more to do in and out of government to tackle the problem, especially if they have hopes of launching a major effort for an effective successor to the Kyoto Protocol in any form. First and foremost, Europeans will need to accept that the most viable post-Kyoto Protocol regime in the eyes of Americans will probably be the one that resembles the protocol the least. Americans might be warming up to the idea of caps, but binding international limits are unlikely to attract the support of the U.S. government, regardless of which presidential candidate wins the next election. William Pizer, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future, outlines five characteristics of a future climate regime that would win the support of a wide variety of policymakers, especially those in the United States: it must defer to domestic interests, need not focus on all countries, must include technology development, must engage the developing countries, and must stress evaluating action after the fact. 30 On the other side of the Atlantic, Americans need to find ways to capitalize on the momentum that is starting to build on this issue. One of the unique ways to do this is to pull non-climate change communities into the debate to make this challenge a key component of U.S. foreign policy. To date, a handful of studies have worked to bridge the gap between the national security and climate change communities so that global warming receives the same attention that other global challenges receive. Climate change will have major ramifications for migration, force posturing, failed states, and federal resource allocation. The sooner national governments treat climate change as a national security issue, the faster it will receive the intellectual and financial resources it merits. The two sides of the Atlantic must also jointly examine the economic implications of a failure to act. Most American skeptics argue that the United States will risk economic damage by cutting its carbon emissions, particularly if others do not follow suit. Others, such as Sir Nicholas Stern, author of the infamous "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," make the exact opposite point, that the economic costs of acting on global warming are far lower than the cost of inaction. 31 Although Stern's report has been criticized for its methodology (using an incorrect discount rate in its calculations), its overarching thesis merits more discussion and research, particularly if Europeans have hopes of shrinking the pool of U.S. skeptics. Any viable solution to the challenge of climate change rests on the ability of Europe and the United States to combine their strengths, experiences, and positions into a post--Kyoto Protocol framework. Ultimately, the United States will eventually need to agree to some form of emissions caps. Because that appears unlikely in the remaining months of the Bush administration, Europeans will need to focus on short- and medium-term strategies. In the coming months, Europeans and Americans should work to increase the tempo of their dialogue, bring in new communities, continue to dissuade the skeptics, and capitalize on the fact that public opinion is primed for action. In the medium term, Europeans should be preparing to engage the next U.S. president on this issue, with the hope of putting it at the top of the transatlantic agenda within the first 100 days in office.

92

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations - Turns Case - Climate
Turns Case- destroys cooperation which is key to solve Atlantic Council '7 [Feb 5-6, Transatlantic Cooperation for Clean Air: Summary of a Conference,
http://www.acus.org/docs/0702-Transatlantic_Cooperation_for_Clean_Air.pdf] Despite differences in the focus of past policies, the development and commercialization of new technology is central for both the U.S. and the EU. It is agreed that the U.S. and the EU have much to gain from cooperation. This collaboration could be based upon a set of principles created by analysts during this dialogue. Recognizing that climate change and air quality must be dealt with as part of a larger set of issues will allow for more collaboration. Two important areas of cooperation could be the research and development of necessary technologies and outreach to the developing world. The U.S. and EU should coordinate efforts to engage developing energy consuming nations.

Turns Case IHT 3/26/'8 [UN climate change scientist: Tariffs on goods from big polluters spell trouble,
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/26/europe/EU-GEN-EU-Climate-Change.php] BRUSSELS, Belgium: Unilateral sanctions against major polluters by countries applying stricter environmental standards would create serious political problems, the chief U.N. climate scientist warned Wednesday. Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared last year's Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, said applying import tariffs on goods from countries that do not comply with low carbon technologies needs to be avoided. "This issue would be politically very divisive, you'd create a lot of political problems if certain groups of countries were to take these actions," Pachauri told journalists at the European Parliament, where he met members of the assembly's group on climate change. Pachauri responded to a warning by the European Union that the United States, China and other major polluters could face consequences if they do not sign up to an international agreement on fighting global warming by next year.

93

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations - Turns Case - Climate
US-EU relations are key to prevent climate change Robert Lempert, Senior Scientist at RAND, june, 2001, THE INTERNATIONAL SPECTATOR VOLUME XXXVI, No. 2,
Finding Transatlantic Common Ground on Climate Change? Whether to retain, modify or replace the Kyoto framework looms as a central diplomatic problem because the Protocol has become a focus of opposition for many and a symbol of hard won progress for others. The Framework Conventional and Protocol have achieved a number of important successes to date, including an international consensus on long-term goals and on an initial process for modifying climate policy over time, an acceptance of the principles of binding emissions reduction targets and the use of market-based mechanisms for meeting them, and an initial infrastructure for the monitoring necessary to support any action on cli- mate change. Thus, building on the current structures may be less disruptive than attempting to begin again with a clean slate. The existing treaty language is cer- tainly sufficiently broad to accommodate a wide range of possible interpretations and revisions. Given US opposition, any conceivable climate change agreement will include significant modifications to the emissions caps, through some combi- nation of weakening or delaying the target, expanding the definition of what counts as emission reductions, or some variant of the safety valve. But the substance of the differences between the EU, US and others can be reduced if negotiators com- bine changes in the emission caps with new commitments to other actions directly tied to the other key milestones. There are certainly entrenched ideologies and economic interests on all sides of the issue, but any necessary, serious economic dislocations due to cli- mate change policy remain largely in the future. Thus, by retaining emissions con- trols, but balancing them as only one component of a well-balanced, robust climate policy, the EU and US may be able to create a framework that will allow them, and the rest of the world, to agree on the key near-term actions needed to prepare effectively for a wide range of plausible climate-change futures.

Lack of US-EU cooperation undermines climate change prevention efforts Robert Lempert, Senior Scientist at RAND, june, 2001, THE INTERNATIONAL SPECTATOR VOLUME XXXVI, No. 2,
Finding Transatlantic Common Ground on Climate Change? At present, there appears to be little consensus on climate change policy. Most Europeans favour the Kyoto framework. The Bush administration’s emerging cli- mate action plan will not. Failure to converge on climate policy could put an endur- ing strain on US-EU relations, derail much of the progress made to date in responding to climate change, and make it more difficult to fashion an effective re- sponse in the future.

94

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Afff

95

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU can’t solve terrorism/prolif
US-EU alliance can’t stop terrorism and prolif Francois Heisbourg, Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique (French for “Foundation for Strategic Research”) 2004
US-European relations: from lapsed alliance to new partnership? Third, the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by states of concern, a widely recognized and accepted threat, has now been compounded by the threat of proliferation of such weapons of mass destruction into the hands of non-state terrorist groups. To face this prospective ‘hyper terrorism,’ deterrence is largely irrelevant, ex-post repression is insufficient as a policy and the Atlantic Alliance as a locus for counter-terrorism action is inadequate.

96

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU alliance fails
US-EU alliance irrelevant – short term coalitions solve Francois Heisbourg, Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique (French for “Foundation for Strategic Research”) 2004
US-European relations: from lapsed alliance to new partnership? Second, the ‘mission makes the coalition’ to use the blunt formula publicized by Donald Rumsfeld at NATO shortly after the 9/11 attacks; in other words, the existence and unity of multilateral alliances is no longer dependent simply on longstanding bilateral agreements. The 20th century understandings between old ‘friends’ confronted and united by a recognized common threat no longer hold good in the context of an ever-increasing variety of perceived threats. What counts now is mission performance, being prepared to take action against whomever or whatever is the perceived threat of the day. This is the direct result of the replacement of the permanent, existential, threat from the Soviet Union by a discontinuous and shifting set of threats and challenges and the willingness or the ability to participate in the accomplishment of any given mission, whether big or small, which will tend to vary greatly according to the overlap or opposition of interests. The participants involved in Iraq are not identical to those involved in Africa contingencies or in the war against terrorism with a global reach.

Transatlantic military alliance is dead James Dobbins, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, 2005 “New directions for transatlantic security
cooperation” Survival Global Politics and Strategy, Ingenta Connect It says a great deal about the state of the Western alliance that the United States cannot count upon substantial European support in any of the actual or potential major conflicts that preoccupy American defence planners. In Iraq, NATO is playing only a modest role helping to train Iraqi forces. On Iran, Europe is acting as much as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran as it is the former’s ally. As regards China, Europe aspires to no security role, except perhaps as a supplier of arms. There is no prospect that Europe would countenance military action against Iran, or participate meaningfully in the defence of Taiwan or South Korea. Only in Afghanistan is there transatlantic unity of purpose, and even there, Americans are still doing nearly all the fighting and dying.

97

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Won’t Cause US-EU trade conflicts
Businesses prevent trade conflicts between the US and EU WILLIAM DROZDIAK, Executive Director of the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Center in Brussels, Jan/Feb2005, The North Atlantic Drift. By: Drozdiak, William, Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Jan/Feb 2005, Vol. 84, Issue 1, EBSCO, Business Source
Complete To be sure, Europe and the United States will occasionally be divided over trade issues; strains might even be intensified by the enlarged EU's growing willingness to confront Washington over aircraft subsidies, antitrust rules, bioengineered foods, and cloning. But business so pervades the transatlantic relationship that powerful interestsin Europe and the United States will push for the peaceful resolution of these matters. In the battle between Airbus and Boeing, for example, the fact that both companies employ thousands of workers on both sides of the Atlantic creates a formidable lobby that seeks compromise to maintain jobs and healthy competition. Thus, despite a few unavoidable differences, the forces of globalization and competitive markets are driving Americans and Europeans closer together, not apart.

98

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

No US-EU Cooperation on Middle East
No US-EU cooperation on the Middle East now Dalia Dassa Kaye, political scientist and a member of the research staff in the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND, Winter 03/04, Bound to Cooperate? Transatlantic Policy in the Middle East, Washington Quarterly,
Given their common strategic interests in regional stability, the secure flow of oil, and political and economic reform, one would think that Europe and the United States are bound to cooperate in the Middle East. Yet, cooperation is not inevitable, nor has it been the case historically.1 Notwithstanding common strategic interests, differences in strategic culture and historical experience cause the United States and Europe to view the region through distinct lenses, leading them to perceive, prioritize, and approach threats differently. The September 11 attacks only bolstered this historically and culturally rooted gap across the Atlantic. As noted by one analyst of transatlantic relations, “Where the cold war against communism in Middle Europe brought America and Europe together, the ‘war against terrorism’ in the Middle East is pulling them apart.”2 For the United States, the terrorist threat and the war on terrorism have established themselves where the Soviet threat and the Cold War used to stand; this is not yet the case for Europe. Apart from European support for the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan and antiterrorism coordination based in law enforcement, hopes for greater, deeper U.S.-European cooperation after September 11, 2001, have proved ephemeral. Although the tragedy of 9/11 initially created a deep sense of transatlantic community, our responses to it have had a polarizing rather than unifying effect on transatlantic relations.

99

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU relations low - climate
Currently, the US and EU disagree on climate change, damaging relations and climate change efforts Ahearn et al., Specialist in International Trade and Finance, 2007, U.S.-European Union Relations and the 2007 Summit,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22645.pdf Energy Security and Climate Change. European leaders have made curbing global climate change an integral objective of EU energy security policy. In March 2007, EU members established binding targets for the use of renewable energy and biofuels and committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels by 2020. Building on this agreement, European officials are reportedly seeking U.S. support for an international treaty regulating greenhouse gas emissions after 2012, when the U.N. Kyoto Protocol is set to expire, and for an international market-based carbon emissions credit trading system. The United States is not party to the Kyoto Protocol, and U.S. officials appear reluctant to commit to global regulation; instead, they advocate transatlantic cooperation to promote alternative and clean energy technology. In light of the differences on global climate change regulation, the United States and EU used the April 2007 summit to launch initiatives jointly promoting technological advances in clean coal and carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, biofuels, and methane recovery, among other areas. Although European officials agree with the United States that these technologies should help improve transatlantic energy security and mitigate the negative effects of climate change, they are reportedly disappointed by perceived U.S. reluctance to pursue binding international emissions targets and a global carbon trading system. U.S. officials, pointing out that from 2000-2004 carbon dioxide emissions increased at a faster rate in the EU than in the United States, argue that the U.S. approach, based on fostering technological innovation as opposed to binding regulation, is proving more effective in curbing global warming. 4 At the April 2007 summit, U.S. and European leaders sought to downplay differences over carbon emissions targets and carbon trading, expressing confidence that their decisions to promote clean and renewable energy sources represent a step forward in transatlantic cooperation both to increase energy security and curb climate change. However, analysts note that past efforts — such as a 2006 pledge creating an annual strategic review of U.S.-EU energy cooperation, a U.S.-EU High Level Dialogue on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development, and a U.S.-EU Energy CEO Forum — yielded little if any tangible progress.

100

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

AT: “Value Gap” hurts counterterrrorism
Ideology irrelevant to US-EU cooperation on terrorism Jonathan Stevenson, Editor of Strategic Survey and Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 2003, How Europe and America Defend Themselves, Foreign Affairs, Lexis
As for the "values gap" between Europe and the United States, it has not seriously jeopardized day-to-day transatlantic counterterrorism cooperation, and many of the problems it raises can be finessed. Differences over the death penalty do complicate extradition of suspects from Europe to the United States. Divergent data-protection standards also impede intelligence sharing. Washington and Brussels are committed to reaching general accord on these issues, but progress is likely to be slow. Although they have agreed to exchange general analytic information on terrorism and crime via Europol, an impending agreement on sharing personal data relating to terrorist suspects foundered in November 2002 due to concerns over civil liberties and legal liability.

101

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

No Obama Change Obama won’t change policies to strengthen trans-Atlantic relations Jon Ward, staff writer, 6/9/08, Obama presidency could dismay anti-Bush Europe, Washington Times, http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/jun/09/obama-presidencycould-dismay-anti-bush-europe/?page=1 [SD]
To many in Europe, President Bush is still a pariah, and Barack Obama is a phenom. But as Mr. Bush heads to the continent Monday for a weeklong goodbye tour, the little known fact is that his administration has done much to repair the trans-Atlantic relationship in his second term. As for Mr. Obama, recent events indicate the Democrat from Illinois, if elected president, might not be the drastic contrast with Mr. Bush that many in Europe are wishing for. "Once President Bush is out of the White House, there will be huge expectations in Europe that a new, rosy dawn of peace and love is appearing over the Atlantic," said Reginald Dale, a Europe scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "They're liable to be somewhat disappointed, because America is still going to look after its own interests, and then the fundamental interests may not have changed that much," he said.

102

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

No Obama/McCain Kyoto Agreement Neither McCain nor Obama will endorse the Kyoto agreement
Jon Ward, staff writer, 6/9/08, Obama presidency could dismay anti-Bush Europe, Washington Times, http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/jun/09/obama-presidency-could-dismay-anti-bush-europe/?page=1 [SD]
David Pumphrey, a former senior official at the Department of Energy in the Bush administration, said that Europe sees an "opportunity to engage successfully" on climate change under the next administration. Both Mr. Obama and his Republican opponent, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, have said they will endorse a "cap-and-trade" system here in the United States, which the Bush administration has resisted. But on the question that matters most to Europe - a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol - the next U.S. president may not depart from Mr. Bush's position, which has been that China and India must be part of any deal. Mr. McCain has clearly stated that China and India must bring their emerging economies into any global agreement. Mr. Obama has been more vague. An Obama spokesman said that the senator would "push aggressively" for China and India to participate, while also setting up a global energy forum made up of the world's largest developed and developing emitters.

The US isn’t going to change emission policies.
Jon Ward, staff writer, 6/9/08, Obama presidency could dismay anti-Bush Europe, Washington Times, http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/jun/09/obama-presidency-could-dismay-anti-bush-europe/?page=1
"There has occasionally been voiced the misimpression that a future administration will take a significantly different attitude towards climate than this administration," said Dan Price, deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs. "We have tried to explain that it is highly unlikely that any future administration would be prepared to sign a new climate treaty that did not include binding commitments from the major emerging economies to address their own emissions," he said during an interview with a small group of reporters. John Bruton, the EU ambassador to the U.S., said that expecting China and India to sign on to a post-Kyoto agreement "before you've done anything yourself is ludicrous."

103

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Aff: Depending on McCain/Obama
It All Depends on McCain and Obama Stewart Patrick, senior fellow and director of the Program on Global Governance at the Council on Foreign Relations, 7/13/08, Global Groups Are So Last Century, http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/commentary/hc-commentarypatrick0713.artjul13,0,4545268.story [SD]
As the Bush administration straggles to the finish line, some of the most creative thinking about world order is occurring across the Atlantic. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown has proposed a sweeping overhaul of international institutions to bring global governance into line with 21st-century realities. It is time for the two U.S. presidential candidates to engage this debate. John McCain and Barack Obama both promise a "kinder, gentler" foreign policy. Beyond this shift in tone, their blueprints for world order are vague. Before we hire either as an architect or general contractor, we need some straight talk about which international institutions are worth preserving, which can be salvaged and which need to be demolished. Here are several questions they need to answer: • The G8: Any global steering committee that includes Canada (population 33 million, GDP $1.4 trillion) and Italy (58 million, $2.07 trillion) but excludes China (1.33 billion, $3.25 trillion) and India (1.15 billion, $1.15 trillion) is hopelessly obsolete. McCain would keep the G8 a democratic club by ejecting Russia, adding India and Brazil, and excluding China. Where does Obama stand? • The Security Council: In 2004, George W. Bush invoked John Kerry's notion of a "global test" as a cudgel to beat the Democratic nominee. And yet Iraq shows that acting without the U.N. Security Council's blessing carries steep diplomatic, military and financial costs. Under what conditions would either candidate seek U.N. authorization to use armed force? And how would they overhaul the council's membership to reflect the tremendous power shifts since 1945? • NATO: The trans-Atlantic alliance celebrates its 60th birthday next April in a mid-life crisis, internally divided over its mission in Afghanistan, its posture toward Russia, and its relations with the European Union. Beyond asking allies to pull their own weight, how do the candidates plan to make NATO relevant to today's security threats — and avoid the emergence of a "two-tier" alliance? • A Concert of Democracies? McCain advocates a league of democratic states to compete with the United Nations as a source of international legitimacy. Two senior Obama advisers, Tony Lake and Ivo Daalder, agree. Does Obama himself believe such a league would advance American global leadership — or merely complicate it? • Climate Change: Both candidates endorse a "cap and trade" system to reduce U.S. emissions. But avoiding global catastrophe will require a successor to the Kyoto Protocol at the 2009 Copenhagen Summit and cooperation among a narrower coalition of major emitters. How do the candidates propose to strike such multilateral bargains?

104

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Aff: Depending on McCain/Obama Both candidates are more serious to cut emissions
TOM RAUM and JOSEPH COLEMAN, AP staff writers, 7/9/08, Developing economies don't back G-8 climate goal, http://www.victoriaadvocate.com/944/story/275746.html# [SD]
The United States has never ratified the Kyoto treaty, with Bush complaining that it puts too much of a burden on the U.S. and other developed countries to reduce emissions while developing giants such as China and India are given a freer rein to pollute even as they vigorously compete with America around the world. Bush will leave office next January, and both major candidates to succeed him have said they are willing to go further in cutting back American emissions. The G-8 statement solidified a pledge made at the last summit in Germany a year ago to seriously consider such a long-term target. But the move fell far short of demands by some developing countries and environmentalists pushing for deeper cuts by 2050 and a firm signal from wealthy countries on what they are willing to do on the much tougher midterm goal of cutting emissions by 2020. "To be meaningful and credible, a long-term goal must have a base year, it must be underpinned by ambitious midterm targets and actions," said Marthinus van Schalkwyk, South African Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. "As it is expressed in the G-8 statement, the long-term goal is an empty slogan."

G-8 members expect McCain or Obama to commit the US to lowering emissions James G. Neuger, Bloomberg 7/3/08, Bush's Dollar Drop Maps Loss of U.S. Clout at Final G-8 Summit, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news? pid=20601085&sid=aH0_cYGS8Avc&refer=europe [SD]
Bush took a baby step at last year's G-8 by acknowledging the need to do something about global warming, edging the U.S. away from the laissez-faire approach that he championed after pulling the U.S. out of the Kyoto climate-protection protocol in a move that met international condemnation in 2001. With the countdown under way to the presidency of Barack Obama or John McCain, the most the summit can do is set up a framework for pollution-cutting agreements that replace Kyoto when it expires in 2012, said Reginald Dale, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ``Most of Bush's partners are looking to the next president,'' Dale said. European leaders will ``be trying to pin Bush further down on the nature of commitments that the United States might undertake to reduce emissions in the shorter term.''

105

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Won’t Cut W/O Dev Countries Bush won’t cut emissions unless developing nations do—even under pressure.
redOrbit News, 7/7/08, G8: Bush Pressured To Commit To Emissions Reductions, REDORBIT NEWS, http://www.redorbit.com/news/display/?id=1466522 [SD]
With climate change at the top of the agenda for the G8 nations meeting on the Japanese island of Hokkaido this week, the European Union and environmental groups are putting pressure on the Bush administration today in hopes of getting the U.S. to agree to halve global greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century and back the need for rich countries to set 2020 goals as well. Green groups fear that the summit, which lasts from Monday until Wednesday, will end without a firm commitment to slash emissions by 2050. The so-called Major Economies Meeting will bring leaders from large nations such as China, India, Brazil and Australia together to discuss climate change with G8 leaders. "So far we have seen progress, difficult progress but progress," said a EU source, speaking on condition of anonymity. This year's G8 meeting would be considered a failure by Brussels if there was no agreement to cut emissions by 50 percent by 2050, the EU source said, adding that there was already common ground on other issues such as use of market mechanisms, including emissions trading as "the way to go and I think that is quite useful and it has been signed up by all the G8 members." European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the meeting would be a success if there was agreement on a clear-cut 50 percent reduction by 2050. "If we agree among ourselves (in the G8), then we are in a much better position for discussions with our Chinese partners and others," Barroso said. Both China and India have refused to commit to a fixed target to curb emissions unless rich nations, like the U.S., do so as well. Both countries’ economies produce about a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions. President George W. Bush has refused to back any fixed numerical targets to cut emissions unless developing nations agree to binding commitments to curb their carbon pollution. The G8 emits about 40 percent of mankind's greenhouse gas pollution, about half of that alone coming from the United States.

106

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Non-Unique: France Taxes Imports France is currently placing carbon taxes on importers who are not capping carbon emissions.
James Kanter and Stephen Castle, staff writers, International Herald Tribune, 1/22/08, US warns EU on using climate change as pretext, http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/01/22/us_warns_eu_on_using_climate_change_as_pre text/ [SD]
BRUSSELS - The United States warned the European Union yesterday against using climate change as a pretext for protectionism, setting the stage for trans-Atlantic tension over a new package of EU measures to combat global warming. The pointed comments by the US trade representative, Susan Schwab, after talks in Brussels, came just two days before the European Commission introduced its proposals for cutting EU emissions at least 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020. "We have been dismayed at a variety of suggestions where we have seen the climate and the environment being used as an excuse to close markets," Schwab said after discussions with Peter Mandelson, her European counterpart. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has called for a carbon tax on imports to ensure that European companies that need to comply with tough environmental rules are not undercut by foreign competitors whose governments are not capping carbon emissions.

107

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

No Bush Change UN criticizes Bush’s attempt to make progress on climate change
Associated Press, 7/9/08, Bush: ‘Significant progress’ on climate change, http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iDhfdxlthyulzNbmR8KGjPKvNzaAD91QDSP80 [SD]
TOYAKO, Japan (AP) — President Bush hailed the move by G-8 leaders to coalesce behind a strategy for a global climate-change accord, saying Wednesday "significant progress" was made. But environmentalists and the U.N.'s top climate official disputed his claims. "I don't find the outcome very significant," Yvo de Boer, who head the United Nations-led global negotiations to forge a new climate change treaty, told The Associated Press in telephone interview from his home in the Netherlands. De Boer said the summit's vague pledge to work toward slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050 mentioned no baseline, did not appear to be legally binding and was open to vastly different interpretations. He praised China's President Hu Jintao for acknowledging that developing countries must act on climate change even if Beijing rejects specific national targets. Environmentalists also argued the goal of cutting greenhouse gases by 50 percent did not go far enough and amounted to political window-dressing. "To be meaningful and credible, a long-term goal must have a base year, it must be underpinned by ambitious midterm targets and actions," said Marthinus van Schalkwyk, South African Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, who called the G-8 statement an "empty slogan."

108

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

US-EU Relations Won’t Fail

The EU and the US depend on each other; the plan can’t break the relationship.
Hampton Roads International Security Quarterly, 7/15/08, US-EU Summit Declaration, http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2394258&title=June_2008_USEU_Summit.html [SD]
We, the leaders of the United States of America and the European Union, met today in Brdo, Slovenia to further strengthen our strategic partnership. We view this Summit, and the fact that it is being hosted by Slovenia in its role as Presidency of the Council of the EU, as symbolic of our endeavour to realize a free, democratic and united Europe. The process of unifying Europe is one of the outstanding historical legacies of our partnership over the past half century. The strategic partnership between the U.S. and EU is firmly anchored in our common values and increasingly serves as a platform from which we can act in partnership to meet the most serious global challenges and to advance our shared values, freedom and prosperity around the globe. We seek a world based on international law, democracy, the rule of law and human rights, and strengthened by broad and sustainable market-based economic growth. The bond between the U.S. and the EU has proven its resilience through times of difficulty, and we continue to demonstrate global leadership and effective transatlantic cooperation in the face of the most pressing challenges of our day: Promoting international peace, stability, democracy, human rights, international criminal justice, the rule of law and good governance; Working together in conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction; Fighting the scourge of terrorism while protecting the fundamental freedoms on which our democratic societies are built; Encouraging the world's fast-growing economic powers to assume their responsibilities in the global rules-based system; Fostering an open, competitive and innovative transatlantic economy, through free movement of goods, persons, services and capital, while working together towards a prompt, balanced and ambitious agreement in the WTO Doha Round that creates new market access and strengthens growth in both developed and developing nations; Combating climate change, promoting energy security and efficiency, helping developing nations lift themselves out of poverty, and fighting the most crippling infectious diseases. An effective response to these challenges requires transatlantic unity of purpose and effective multilateral approaches. We stand stronger when we stand together especially in meeting new global challenges.

109

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Bush Can’t Influence Europe cares about the future; Bush has no more influence.
Ida Garibaldi, visiting research fellow at AEI, 6/17/08, Bush Returns from Europe without Understand the Old Continent’s Postion on Iran, http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.28179/pub_detail.asp [SD]
There was little more than the window dressing of a farewell tour in President Bush's trip to Europe earlier this month. Most significantly, he failed to come away with a clear idea of where Europe stands on Iran. It is a pity, but it is not surprising. At the end of his second mandate an American president progressively loses his political influence, becoming a semi irrelevant actor on the political scene of his country. This element coupled with the entrenched European indecision in facing the Iranian issue undermined the results of a trip that otherwise could have had a very positive effect on the transatlantic alliance. The president had a full agenda. The visit, which began on June 9, was meant to strengthen the transatlantic alliance, build a united front to face the threat of a nuclear Iran and encourage a stronger European commitment in Afghanistan. Bush participated in the annual EU-US summit in Brdo, Slovenia, and met with the leaders of Germany, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom. He also briefly visited Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican. It all felt like Bush's grand farewell to America's best allies in Europe. The concerns and disagreements over the invasion of Iraq in 2003 seemed finally behind us. We heard statements on the importance of the transatlantic alliance. The economic relationship between the United States and Europe was wholly acknowledged. There were pronouncements over the need for better cooperation on climate change, Iraq and Afghanistan. The allies even managed to find common ground on stricter sanctions for Iran to stop its nuclear enrichment program. But something was missing. As noted by the European and American press alike, President Bush's visit did not spark much interest among the European public. In stark contrast with his previous trips to Europe, this trip was largely ignored by the European left, even in Germany--were nobody is denied a good rally. The lame duck doesn't have much more to offer: the European allies are now focused on the future.

Bush has no influence in Europe and Obama/McCain won’t change future policies either.
Ida Garibaldi, visiting research fellow at AEI, 6/17/08, Bush Returns from Europe without Understand the Old Continent’s Postion on Iran, http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.28179/pub_detail.asp [SD]
Bush lost his credibility with the war in Iraq, an enterprise that was poorly explained and badly executed. As a result, he has not been able to stand up to Iran with the resolution that he would have liked. Europe stood aside, hoping to dodge the issue, or if necessary tackle it later on with the cooperation of a less unilateral American president. However, Europeans who believe a change in the White House will bring about a radical change in American foreign policy is bound to be disappointed. The 9/11 terrorist attacks have changed America's perception of its role in the international system and vis a vis its European allies. The conviction that America is a benevolent hegemon which should defend its position of supremacy doesn't belong only to the Bush administration. It is shared across the American political spectrum. Over the next half century, the United States will be able to take and implement decisions without the consent of the international community and outside the multilateral system that Europe would like to build. An administration less influenced by the neoconservatives will pay more attention to public diplomacy and cultivate better its allies. But after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, American security will be the first priority of any American president even by use of a preemptive strike. Indeed, Barack Obama and John McCain both accept the possibility to militarily attack Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons, no matter what the international community would say about it.

110

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Bush Can’t Influence EVERYONE wants Bush to leave –especially Europe
Amitabh Pal, managing editor of The Progressive, 7/3/08, Bush's Legacy and the Damage Done, http://www.progressive.org/mag/wxap070308 [SD]
With President Bush attending his last G8 summit in Japan, it is a good time to assess the foreign policy legacy of his Administration —and what a legacy! From the Middle East to Latin America to Europe to South Asia, Bush’s policies have created multiple disasters. First, let us quickly get out of the way the positive things he has done. He has substantially increased foreign aid, especially the amount dedicated to fighting AIDS and other infectious diseases in Africa. (The aid has been tied to the Bush Administration’s pet projects, such as abstinence-only programs and the purchase of brand-name drugs, but still…) And the Bush Administration has sobered up and negotiated (if in a tardy manner) with North Korea over its nuclear program. That’s all I can up with. Otherwise, it’s been one catastrophe after another. In the May issue of Current History magazine, Books Editor William Finan has listed five qualities of the Bush Administration that got it into its global mess: unmitigated triumphalism, belief in the infallibility of America’s military might, Bush’s supreme selfrighteousness, his religious beliefs, and what Finan calls the Administration’s “smite them” doctrine. The combination of these elements has brewed a deadly cocktail. The results are most apparent in the Middle East, where the Bush Administration’s legacy will be the hardest to mend. As Bassma Kodmani asserts in Current History, the Arab world is waiting for the new Administration in January 2009 to completely redo the record of the Bush crowd in the region—from Iraq and Iran to Israel/Palestine and Lebanon. Only then will the Arab governments and elites feel that the damage has been undone. To them, Bush is “one of the worst U.S. Presidents they have known in their long years in power,” Kodmani says. Washington’s overweening arrogance and free-market zealotry has not endeared it in Latin America. That is why it has very few true friends in the area, save Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who came to power in a dubious election, and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, whose government is cozy with brutal death squads. In Europe, Bush first antagonized much of the continent with his unilateral invasion of Iraq. And he’s now busy annoying Russia with his installation of the missile defense system in Eastern Europe, supposedly to protect against incoming missiles from Iran. Russia’s pique is not surprising, since, as George Lewis and Theodore Postol point out in the May/June issue of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the system seems to be aimed as much against Russia as Iran.

111

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Bush Can’t Influence US has a terrible approval rating and only improvement relies on Bush leaving. Pascal Boniface, director of IRIS, published or edited more than 40 books dealing with international relations, nuclear deterrence and disarmament, European security and French international policy, 6/27/08, US is still an unpopular country, Gulf News, http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/world/10224106.html [SD]
There is good news and bad news for the US President George W. Bush. The good news is the US image is getting better. The bad news is the change is largely due to Bush's departure from the White House by the end of this year. This is the conclusion the Pew Research Centre has arrived at after it conducted polls in 24 countries to ascertain world opinion on the United States. Five years after the invasion of Iraq, the unpopularity ratings of the US are still high compared to the beginning of the 21st century. But for the first time since American forces landed in Iraq, it is improving slightly in 10 countries. And almost everywhere, the public opinion indicates the upcoming election of a new president is the best thing that could happen to the US. In almost every country, two-thirds of those surveyed believe that Bush's departure will lead to a better US diplomacy. There are more people who prefer Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama to the Republican candidate John McCain. According to the survey, Obama is twice as popular as the Republican candidate. But we have to keep in mind that in 2004, although an overwhelming number of voters in other parts of the world (only virtually) voted for John Kerry, American voters re-elected Bush. Public opinions take into consideration the growth of China into an economic and military power. With its growing influence in the world comes more responsibilities. But, according to the polls, Beijing seems to disregard these responsibilities. China and the US are considered the main contributors to climate change and global warming. The survey found that only in eight countries did the US enjoy a good reputation. They are United Kingdom, India, Lebanon, Nigeria, Poland, South Africa, Tanzania and South Korea. However, it should be borne in mind that the survey was conducted before the crisis between Seoul and Washington over the free trade agreement, which was largely rejected by South Korea. In the Muslim world, the popularity of the US hit the nadir. Only 22 per cent of Egyptians, 19 per cent of Jordanians and Pakistanis, and 12 per cent of Turks support the US. Even in European countries, which are the historic US allies, negative opinions are dominant. In Germany, only 31 per cent of the population are happy with the US. This rate is 34 per cent in Spain, and 42 per cent in France. In a third of the countries in which the study has been done, people consider the US more as an enemy than as a friend, even in official US allied countries such as Turkey and Pakistan.

112

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Aff – No link
No Link: EU would lose more than they would gain if they implemented a tax on the U.S.
RSS (review of policy research), 2-26-08, linking cooperation on climate change to cooperation on trade, http://mail.google.com/mail/?hl=en&tab=wm#inbox/11b3bdceac6e4718 [Barber] The potential for successfully linking cooperation on climate change to cooperation on international trade has been explored mainly in terms of trade restrictions with a main focus on "trade in goods that are directly linked to the environmental problem" (Barrett, 1997, p. 347). As Stiglitz (2006) reminds us, firms operating in a country that does not participate in the climate regime do not pay the full cost of the damage they cause to the environment. Such firms therefore have a commercial advantage amounting to an indirect subsidy. Producers in the fossil-fuel-intensive industries, especially, benefit from this advantage. However, subsidies are not allowed by the WTO except in specific situations and sectors, such as agriculture. Hence, Stiglitz proposes that the existing trade framework could be used to compel nonparticipating industrialized countries in general, and the United States in particular, to reengage in the Kyoto process. According to Stiglitz, the United States would likely reengage if the Kyoto countries (threaten to) prohibit the importation of U.S. goods produced using energy-intensive technologies, or impose a high tax to offset the subsidy that those goods currently receive (Stiglitz, 2006, p. 2). Trade restrictions imposed by the Kyoto countries on the import of U.S. goods produced using energy-intensive technologies could do tremendous harm to the U.S. economy. One might therefore reasonably expect the United States to be prepared to make significant sacrifices to avoid such restrictions. In particular, one might expect that the United States would prefer to cooperate on both climate change and trade rather than to refuse to cooperate on climate change and therefore be subjected to trade restrictions. If this expectation is correct, then linking cooperation on climate change to cooperation on trade, as suggested by Stiglitz, would satisfy Davis's requirement of complementarity. We argue, however, that a threat by the Kyoto countries to link cooperation on climate change to cooperation on trade, would likely not be credible. First, for the Kyoto countries to use such linkage they would have to impose trade restrictions that would probably be impermissible under WTO regulations (Bodansky, 2002). According to WTO regulations, a Kyoto country that uses a carbon tax to meet its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol can, in principle, adopt border tax adjustments to compensate for the advantages enjoyed by companies in countries that do not impose a carbon tax (or similar).7 If it does impose such border tax adjustments, its importers of U.S. goods produced using emissions-intensive technology will face a tax payable on the goods imported. To be permissible under WTO regulations, however, such border tax adjustments must apply in a non-discriminatory manner to all WTO member countries that do not impose a carbon tax (or similar) (Bodansky, 2002). This implies that the border tax adjustments would have to apply not only to goods produced in the United States (as intended) but also to goods produced in other WTO member countries that are parties to the Kyoto Protocol but that do not impose a carbon tax (or similar) in their domestic economies (Bodansky, 2002, pp. 6–7). Thus, the border tax adjustments would also have to apply to goods produced in parties to the Kyoto Protocol that have not made binding emissions reduction commitments (i.e., developing countries such as China, India, and Brazil), and to Kyoto countries that do not have effective emissions limitation targets (i.e., East European countries such as Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania).8 Making the trade restrictions nondiscriminatory is thus likely to meet fierce opposition from such countries. In conclusion, linking cooperation on climate change to cooperation on trade would likely entail damage either to the climate regime (by causing tension between Kyoto countries with binding and effective emissions limitation commitments and other Kyoto parties), or to the trade regime (by violating WTO regulations requiring that trade restrictions be used in a nondiscriminatory way). It is therefore unlikely that the Kyoto countries would in fact be prepared to implement such border tax adjustments as a response to United States' failure to cooperate on climate change

113

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Aff – no link
All actions taken under Bush administration don’t matter to the EU
Martin LaMonica, 4-17-08, Bush sets goals to stop US green house gas growth, but offers no concrete plans, http://www.smartplanet.com/news/people/10001060/bush-sets-goal-to-stop-us-greenhouse-gas-growth-but-offers-no-concreteplans.htm [Barber]

Initial reaction to the speech's text brought some negative comments from legislators and policy analysts who said it will not bring about significant changes to legislation now under discussion. "President Bush's announcement will be soon forgotten," David Sandalow, an energy and global warming expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told Bloomberg. "The most important decisions in the international global-warming negotiations will be made once President Bush leaves office." John Cahill, who co-chairs the Climate Change practice at Chadbourne & Parke and who helped create the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the northeast US, said that Bush's speech did not get the country closer to federal regulations. "Unfortunately, nothing the president said today substantially reduces industry's deep problem of climate regulation uncertainty," Cahill said.

114

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Aff-Eu already mad
Europe is already pissed at the U.S New York Times, 4/20/03, Europe Gets Tougher On U.S. Companies, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html? res=9900E0D9143AF933A15757C0A9659C8B63 [adit] The Bush administration regularly weighs in against European regulations that it sees as hurting business. Rockwell A. Schnabel, the United States ambassador to the European Union, called for "smart regulation" that "meets society's objectives without strangling innovation and growth." Many Europeans are still angry at the Bush administration for its rejection of the Kyoto protocol, an agreement created to curb global warming. Jorge Moreira da Silva, a member of the European Parliament from Portugal, said he hoped to turn the tables on President Bush. Mr. Moreira da Silva is shepherding legislation on emissions trading, a market-based incentives plan that the European Union is considering even though the United States has not yet signed on to the agreement.

Europe criticizes the U.S for poor regulations now EurActiv 5/18/08, http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/eu-leaders-slam-white-house-climate-plan/article-171732 [adit] "These objectives are backed by a combination of new market-based regulations, new government incentives, and new funding for technology research," he added. But the plans were widely criticised, notably by European delegates, during a 17-18 April meeting of major emitters in Paris. The meeting is being attended by delegates from the US, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, Japan, China, Canada, India, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Australia, Indonesia and South Africa. "The president has made a disappointing speech that does not match up to the global challenge," said Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's Environment Minister, at a 17 April press conference in Paris. EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas also reacted critically, saying the plans "will not contribute to the effective tackling of climate change". And Andrej Kranjc, environment secretary for Slovenia, which currently holds the rotating EU Presidency, expressed his "disappointment" with the 2025 target, which is widely seen as 'too little, too late' compared with the EU's commitment to slash GHG emissions by 20% by 2020. The Bush administration is opposed to EU-style emissions reductions commitments. "Sudden and drastic emissions cuts that have no chance of being realised and every chance of hurting [the US] economy" should be avoided, Bush said.

115

Europe Trade DA DDI 2008

Perception – world climate policy
Because of climate policy Europe views the U.S. as backing away from world climate policy
Christian Hald-Mortensen, Danish Institute of International Studies, May 08, “Translantic Climate Policy: Towards a Copenhagen protocol in 2009, http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:lvYHvFwmQbUJ:www.uaces.org/EE_HaldMortensen.pdf+perception+and+Bush+and+environment+and+policy+and+EUROPE+and+voluntary, +incentives&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=us [Barber] After 1997, the Europeans and Americans diverged on the Kyoto Protocol, and the EU gained importance globally because the U.S. rejected the Kyoto Protocol This rejection was a major disappointment for Europeans who saw the U.S. as a “rogue state” in global environmental politics The U.S. remains crucial for the effectiveness of any climate regime with 20% of world emissions, and because China have made their participation conditional on U.S. participation The U.S. debate on climate policy has been highly focused on economic competitiveness. In the late 1990’s a group of major economic interests launched the “Global Climate Information Project”, and spread fear regarding Kyoto’s economic impact Such concern was codified into law, when the Senate enacted the Byrd-Hagel Act, stating that the U.S. would accept no agreement that did not subject major developing countries to reductions, or that would hurt the U.S. economy. In 2001, this rationale for voluntary defection was echoed again by President George W. Bush. The President declared in March 2001 that the U.S. defected “because (the Kyoto protocol) exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy” The U.S. government has pursued two major unilateral diplomatic initiatives among the top emitters outside of the UN process. With no binding reductions targets and little real funding, the “Major Economies” initiative aims to diffuse new technologies, but was feared to be a decoy. As a host nation, the Danish government hopes that the “major economies” initiative will relay a coordinated perception of the climate problem into the UNFCCC process The Bush Administration has also initiated a climate diplomacy initiative vis-à-vis the Asian economies. The “Asia –Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate” (AP-6) includes Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of South Korea and the U.S., and represents half the world’s emissions and population. The partnership addresses technology cooperation and the reduction of the energy intensity of their economies, but contains no binding reduction targets The AP-6’s absence of reduction targets led commentator, Dr. Anja Köhne from the World Wildlife Fund Europe to call the partnership a “smoke screen”, because the AP6 is very optimistic about technological transformation The approach favors diffusion of policy learning; the State Department lauds the fact that China is learning from the U.S. Energy Star Program to produce more efficient energy appliances Internally, U.S. policy has focused on “voluntary measures” to be taken by major polluters, and technology development grants distributed by the federal government. The Bush administration has spent 37 billion$ since 2001 on climate science and observation, and from 2003 to 2006, the U.S. invested $3 billion annually in climate technology such as carbon capturing and sequestration, nuclear power and biofuels. What undergirds the Bush Administration’s domestic policy initiatives as well as its two major climate diplomacy initiatives is the absence of binding reduction targets. Instead, the U.S. government has favored technological solutions. Not only the Bush administration, but also presidential contenders Hillary Clinton, Rudy Guiliani, and the influential columnist Thomas Friedman of the New York Times, as well as climatologist Michael Oppenheimer has discussed techno-optimist solutions to climate policy. The purest form of this type of policy is a “Manhattan Project on Climate Change”

116

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful