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Food Prices DA

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Index
Index........................................................................................................................................................................1
1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................4
1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................5
1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................6
Uniqueness..............................................................................................................................................................7
Uniqueness..............................................................................................................................................................8
Generic Link...........................................................................................................................................................9
Biofuels Link........................................................................................................................................................10
Biofuels Link.........................................................................................................................................................11
Biofuels Link........................................................................................................................................................12
Biofuels Link........................................................................................................................................................13
Biomass Link........................................................................................................................................................14
Cassava Ethanol Link..........................................................................................................................................15
Corn Ethanol Link...............................................................................................................................................16
Geothermal Link..................................................................................................................................................17
Hydropower Link.................................................................................................................................................18
Photovoltaic Link.................................................................................................................................................19
Solar Power Link.................................................................................................................................................20
Solar Power Link.................................................................................................................................................21
Wind Power Link.................................................................................................................................................22
Internal Link – Ag Industry Spillover...............................................................................................................23
Internal Link – Global Spillover........................................................................................................................24
Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices...............................................................................................25
Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices...............................................................................................26
Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices...............................................................................................27
Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices...............................................................................................28
Internal Link – Malnourishment........................................................................................................................29
Internal Link – Small Business Collapse...........................................................................................................30
Internal Link – US Foreign Food Aid................................................................................................................31
Famine Impact Ext..............................................................................................................................................32
High Food Prices Bad..........................................................................................................................................33
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High Food Prices Bad..........................................................................................................................................34


China Impact Module..........................................................................................................................................35
China Impact Uniqueness...................................................................................................................................36
Economy Impact Module....................................................................................................................................37
Economy Impact Module....................................................................................................................................38
GMO Impact Module..........................................................................................................................................39
GMO Impact Module..........................................................................................................................................40
GMO Impact Module..........................................................................................................................................41
GMO Impact Ext.................................................................................................................................................42
Hegemony Impact Module..................................................................................................................................43
Hegemony Impact Module..................................................................................................................................44
HIV/AIDS Impact Module..................................................................................................................................45
HIV/AIDS Impact Module..................................................................................................................................46
Poverty Impact Module.......................................................................................................................................47
Poverty Impact Ext..............................................................................................................................................48
Terrorism Impact Module...................................................................................................................................49
Terrorism Impact Module...................................................................................................................................50
Terrorism Impact Ext..........................................................................................................................................51
War Impact Module.............................................................................................................................................52
Biofuel Impact Ext – Poverty..............................................................................................................................53
Biofuels Impact Ext – Starvation........................................................................................................................54
Ethanol Impact Ext – Biodiversity.....................................................................................................................55
Ethanol Impact Ext - Economy..........................................................................................................................56
Ethanol Impact Ext – Ocean Death Module......................................................................................................57
DA Turns Case – Land Use  Greenhouse Gases............................................................................................58
Aff Answers...........................................................................................................................................................59
Aff Answers...........................................................................................................................................................60
Aff Answers...........................................................................................................................................................61
Aff Answers...........................................................................................................................................................62
Aff Answers...........................................................................................................................................................63
Aff Uniqueness.....................................................................................................................................................64
Aff Uniqueness.....................................................................................................................................................65

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Aff Uniqueness.....................................................................................................................................................67
Aff Uniqueness.....................................................................................................................................................68
Aff Uniqueness.....................................................................................................................................................69
Aff Uniqueness.....................................................................................................................................................70
Aff Answers – AT: Biofuels Link........................................................................................................................71
Aff Answers – AT: Biofuels Link........................................................................................................................72
Aff Answers – AT: Ethanol Link.........................................................................................................................73
Aff Answers – AT: Geothermal Power Link......................................................................................................74
Aff Answers – AT: Solar Power Link.................................................................................................................75
Aff Answers – AT: Solar Power Link.................................................................................................................76
Aff Answers – AT: Wind Power Link.................................................................................................................77

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Food prices have stabilized, but are on the brink of increase
Reuters, 7-16-08, “food prices steady, inflation push eases,”
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL1663313220080716?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0, KAPUSTINA

LONDON (Reuters) - Food commodity prices have now stabilized after surging early this year while a weak dollar may
reduce inflationary pressures in many countries, a senior United Nations economist said on Wednesday.
"It looks like from March onwards we have arrested the rise. It has basically remained flat," economist Abdolreza Abbassian
of the Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Abbassian said the weakness of the dollar was also becoming an increasingly important influence, reducing the cost of
food commodities in national currency terms for many importers.
"It is good news as long as commodity prices don't go up and offset the gain in the exchange rate. For countries which are not
pegged to the dollar, at least they are not importing inflation," he said.
The FAO's monthly Food Price Index for June, to be published later this week, is set to be close to May's revised 216.0 and
below the peak of 217.8 set in March, he said.
The June total would still, however, be more than 40 percent higher than the same month last year reflecting a sharp jump in
cereals, oils and fats prices.
"Overall it appears the market has stabilized, albeit at very high levels," he said.
Abbassian said there may also be scope for cereal prices to fall as crops are harvested during the next few months.

Alternative energy trades off with massive amounts of arable land


Steven Milloy, 10-1-07, “Renewable Energy Harms Environment, Says Leading Environmental Activist,”
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=21985, KAPUSTINA

Rockefeller University's Jesse Ausubel, a prominent environmental advocate, has stunned other environmental activists by
reporting in the July International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy, and Ecology that the use of renewable energy is
wrecking the environment.
"Renewables are not green," is how Ausubel begins the article. It is a remarkable statement coming from someone who beat his
fellow Greens to global warming alarmism by at least 10 years.
Ausubel's Rockefeller University biography says he "was one of the main organizers of the first U.N. World Climate
Conference (Geneva, 1979) which substantially elevated the global warming issue on scientific and political agendas" and that
he "played major roles in the formulation of both U.S. and world climate-research programs."
Hydroelectric Land Use In his new article, Ausubel calculated the amount of energy produced by various renewable
energy sources--including hydroelectric, biomass, wind, and solar power--in terms of power output per square meter of
land disturbed.
For example, if you could collect the average annual rainfall of the 900,000 square kilometer Canadian province of Ontario--
about 680,000 billion liters of water--and store it behind a dam 60 meters tall, you would produce a regular output of about
11,000 megawatts of electricity--which is only about 80 percent of the output of Canada's 25 nuclear power stations, Ausubel
says.
In other words, this works out to a power production rate of 0.012 watts per square meter of land. It would take 1 square
kilometer of land to provide enough electricity for about 12 Canadians, according to Ausubel. He says this inefficiency is a
key reason environmentalists have reduced their demands for greater use of hydroelectric power.
'Criminal' Biomass
According to Ausubel, biomass is even more harmful.
Large-scale power generation from biomass would require "vast areas be shaved or harvested annually," Ausubel says. It would
take 2,500 square kilometers of prime Iowa farmland to produce as much electricity from biomass as from a single nuclear
power plant.
"Increased use of biomass fuel in any form is criminal," Ausubel stated in a media release. "Every automobile would
require a pasture of 1-2 hectares," he noted.

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Shifting land use from crops to alternative energy increases food prices
Martin Khor, economist and Director of the Third World Network (network of environmental experts based in Malaysia), 10-29-07,
“The Era of Cheap Food Is Over,” The Star online,
http://thestar.com.my/columnists/story.asp?file=/2007/10/29/columnists/globaltrends/19309056&sec=Global%20Trends [Tandet]

But structural changes are underway which could well maintain relatively high nominal prices for many agricultural
products over the coming decade,” said the report summary.
The most important change is “the growing use of cereals, sugar, oilseed and vegetable oils to produce fossil fuel
substitutes, ethanol and bio-diesel.
“This is underpinning crop prices and, indirectly through higher animal feed costs, also the prices for livestock
products.”
The shift of land use from food to fuel is ringing alarm bells. On Oct 26, the United Nations’ rapporteur on the
right to food, Jean Ziegler, told a press conference in New York that there should be a five-year moratorium on bio-fuels “as it
is a crime against humanity to convert food crops to fuel.
“Bio-fuels are driving up food prices at a time when there are 854 million hungry people in the world.”

High food prices cause global famine and food shortages


Hubpages, October 2007, “The Rise in Global Food Prices Is Famine Inevitable,” http://hubpages.com/hub/The-Rise-in-Global-
Food-Prices-Is-Famine-Inevitable
Food riots in some countries recently also show that the situation is serious and if something is not done soon a lot of
people in the world would starve.
Take a look at what some of the experts had to say about this emerging problem:
World Bank: Zoellick Calls For Coordinated Effort To Cope With Rising Food Prices
Josette Sheean, Director of the UN World Food Programme
"We are seeing a new face of hunger. We are seeing more urban hunger than ever before. We are seeing food on the shelves
but people being unable to afford it."
Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank
"Food policy needs to gain the attention of the highest political levels because no one country or group can meet these
interconnected challenges. We should start by helping those whose needs are absolutely most immediate. The UN's World Food
Programme says that they require at least $500 million of additional food supplies to meet emergency calls. The US, the EU, Japan
and other countries must act now to fill that gap - or many people will suffer and starve."

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Food shortages cause extinction
Douglas S. Winnail, Ph.D., MPH, ’96, “On the Horizon”: Famine, From the World Ahead, Sep/Oct,
http://www.survivalplus.com/foods/page0004.html

Perhaps you have been too busy to notice, but the concern about our global food supply is real! Major news magazines are
reporting that after a quiet few decades, talk of a world food crisis is again in the air. Government leaders, economists and scientists
are seriously pondering such sobering questions as: Does the world face a global shortage? and Will the world starve? There is a
growing sense of urgency. In November 1996 the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization will convene a World Food
Security Summit in Rome. The conference was called due to growing concerns that shrinking world food reserves, rising prices and
the declining production of food grains could be the precursors of an imminent food security crisis. Dr. Jacques Diouf, the FAO
Director-General, has stated, "The very survival of humanity depends on world food security ". Just what does the future hold for
humanity? Will there be enough food to go around? What does a look at all the evidence indicate? And how will this issue affect your
life in the months and years ahead? HOW LONG BEFORE THE CUPBOARD IS BARE? Numerous sources document that global
supplies of rice, wheat, corn and other key commodities have dwindled to their lowest levels in years . The U.N. recently warned that
food stocks stand far below the minimum needed to provide for world food security. The world's grain harvest has not increased in any
of the last five years, and since 1992 world grain consumption has exceeded production... this year--for the first time since World War
II--there are basically no surplus stocks in government-owned reserves. The tight supplies have led to steep price increases for wheat,
rice, and corn. Grain stockpiles have fallen particularly fast in the U.S. and the European Union as a result of agricultural reforms that
have focused on reducing overproduction and selling off surpluses--primarily to China--to gain revenue from exports. Bad weather
and a string of poor harvests in grain producing areas of the world have also contributed to the dwindling reserves. A CRISIS
AHEAD? Opinions are sharply divided over what the future may hold. The world's food economy may be shifting from a long-
accustomed period of overall abundance to one of scarcity and that food scarcity will be the defining issue in the future. The lack of
growth of the world grain harvest since 1990 coupled with the continuing growth in world population and the increased likelihood
of crop-damaging heat waves in the years ahead at least carries the potential of severe food shortages.

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Trends prove global food security is stable
Pingali and Stringer [Prabhu, Director of Agriculture and Economic Analysis Division – FAO, and Randy, Chief of the
Comparative Agriculture Development Service – FAO, “Food Security and Agriculture in the Low Income Food Deficit Countries: 10
Years After the Uruguay Round”, 6-23,
http://www.ecostat.unical.it/2003agtradeconf/Invited%20papers/Pingali%20and%20Stringer.PDF]

From a longer term perspective, food security progress has been nothing short of remarkable. The proportion of people
in developing countries living with average daily food intakes of less than 2200 kcal fell from 57 percent in the early 1960s
to just 10 percent by the end of the century. During this period, per capita food supplies increased by more than 70
percent in China and Indonesia; by more than 50 percent in Pakistan and the Republic of Korea; and by more than 30
percent in Brazil, Burkina Fasso, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Jamaica, Mauritania and the
Philippines.

Food Security Increasing


Pingali and Stringer [Prabhu, Director of Agriculture and Economic Analysis Division – FAO, and Randy, Chief of the
Comparative Agriculture Development Service – FAO, “Food Security and Agriculture in the Low Income Food Deficit Countries: 10
Years After the Uruguay Round”, 6-23,
http://www.ecostat.unical.it/2003agtradeconf/Invited%20papers/Pingali%20and%20Stringer.PDF]

How serious is the food insecurity problem? At the global level, the long term trends of many food security indicators have
been positive. For example, the prevalence of undernourishment in developing countries fell from 28 percent of the total
population in 1979-81 to 17 percent in 1998-2000. In addition, The average global kcal/person/day grew by 19 percent
since the mid-1960 to reach 2800 kcal, with the developing country average expanding by more than 30 percent. As
consumption increased, diets shifted towards more meat, milk, eggs, vegetables oils and away from roots and tubers.
Livestock products, vegetables and sugars now provide 28 percent of total food consumption in the developing countries, up
from 20 percent in the mid 1960s (FAO 2003a).

Key areas Food Security Stable


Pingali and Stringer [Prabhu, Director of Agriculture and Economic Analysis Division – FAO, and Randy, Chief of the
Comparative Agriculture Development Service – FAO, “Food Security and Agriculture in the Low Income Food Deficit Countries: 10
Years After the Uruguay Round”, 6-23,
http://www.ecostat.unical.it/2003agtradeconf/Invited%20papers/Pingali%20and%20Stringer.PDF]

Much of this past progress in the developing country aggregate food consumption numbers and undernutrition indicators
are influenced decisively by the significant gains made by the most populated countries -- those with populations of more
than 100 million, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan (FAO 2003a). Bangladesh is the only
developing country with more than 100 million people where per capita food consumption remains very low. Brazil, China
and Indonesia now have daily food consumption levels in the 2900 to 3000 kcal range. China reduced the number of
undernourished by 74 million since 1990-92. Ghana, Nigeria, Peru, Thailand and Viet Nam have all achieved reductions of
more than 3 million.

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Food prices are decreasing now and will drop further in the near future
Financial Times, 5-22-08, “Food prices forecast to stay high for 10 years,”
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4178132253&format=GNBFI&so
rt=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4178132256&cisb=22_T4178132255&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=29384
7&docNo=11 [Tandet]

But the Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017, due to be published next week, does offer a respite in the short term, forecasting
prices will ease from this year's record levels, according to a summary seen by the Financial Times.
"Food prices would be considerably higher in nominal terms than in the past but below the current records," said an official
familiar with the report. Compared with average prices for 2005-07, the report forecasts that in 2017 the price of wheat,
adjusted for inflation, will be 2 per cent higher, rice 1 per cent higher and corn 15 per cent higher. Oilseed prices are expected
to be up 33 per cent.
The price projections imply falls from the current records but suggest that food inflation will continue to be a long-term
problem, particularly for poor countries.
"Without exception, average real prices are likely to remain above those observed during 1985-2007," said the report summary.
The OECD said the projections were preliminary numbers.
Alexander Müller, an assistant director-general at the FAO in Rome, said the world needed to get used to higher food prices.
"In the near future, we will have to live with higher prices for agricultural commodities."
The new estimates of elevated prices in the long term come as the cost of food shows the first tentative signs of stabilising
after surging more than 50 per cent in the past 12 months. In April the FAO's food index registered its first drop in 15
months and officials said prices appeared to be "reaching a peak".
Wheat prices have fallen by 40 per cent since their February record, soyabean prices have also dropped, and corn and
rice prices have stabilised at around their recent record levels.

Food prices have peaked – expert consensus indicates that they will fall
Financial Times, 5-18-08, “Soaring food prices show signs of easing,”
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4178132253&format=GNBFI&so
rt=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4178132256&cisb=22_T4178132255&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=29384
7&docNo=14 [Tandet]

The soaring food prices that have triggered global political and economic turmoil over the past year have finally shown the
first tentative signs of stabilising.
The United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation food price index, considered the best measure of global food
inflation, saw its first decline in 15 months in April, as wheat, dairy, sugar and soyabean prices fell.
Jose María Sumpsi, the FAO's assistant directorgeneral, told the Financial Times this week that with the exception of corn and
rice, food inflation appeared to be "reaching its peak", although he did not expect prices to start falling.
His comments, which are supported by other senior UN officials, and the drop in the index are the most encouraging
signs since the global food crisis broke out last summer but they do not mean the problems are over.
The FAO index for April, to be published later this month, fell to 216.7 points, down from a revised 217 points in March, after
rising 52 per cent in the past 12 months, according to an official who has seen the index.
The last time the FAO food index posted a monthly drop was in January 2007, but that proved a blip. This time officials are
more confident that some prices will stop rising or even fall as farmers plant more crops to take advantage of record
prices amid better weather than last year.

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Alternative energy takes up agricultural land, which jacks food prices

Chicago Tribune Online, 5-5-08, “ethanol not a real solution,” http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-


oped0505byrnemay05,0,5109689.story

When no one was looking, the "world food crisis" elbowed out "global climate change" as our planet's Numero Uno
calamity.

As if that weren't bad enough, we now discover that the two are connected; with this attempt to fix the climate by shifting
away from fossil fuels to more "eco-friendly" renewable fuels, we have ended up starving people in Africa and Asia.

Seems like we can hardly settle on one cataclysm before another one demands our attention.

Food riots have broken out around the world; grain-producing countries have banned exports to feed their own people; food
prices in the U.S. and around the world have gone through the roof. The UN—its usual bold self—created a task force to study
the matter.
What shall we do, what shall we do? We can start by yanking the idiotic and elephantine government aid given to ethanol
production, today's biofuel of choice. Farmland previously planted with corn for food and feedstock for cattle now is
planted with corn for ethanol. The 15 percent of total corn acreage that in 2005 went into ethanol production has rocketed
to an expected 33 percent this year as farmers abandon wheat and other grains to cash in. Naturally, the increasing scarcity
of wheat—the staff of life—has driven up its price. And because the U.S. is the world's breadbasket, those higher prices and
shortages rebound throughout the world. Just how much ethanol is at fault is an unsettled point of contention, with farmers and
ethanol producers whining to Congress, "don't blame us." But a study by the Washington-based International Food Policy Research
Institute estimates that biofuels—principally ethanol—have accounted for a quarter to a third of the recent food price
increases.

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Biofuels Link
Increased biofuel use creates price hikes that spill over into the rest of the
agriculture sector and beyond

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, May/June ’07, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs Magazine,
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html
[Tandet]

With the price of raw materials at such highs, the biofuel craze would place significant stress on other parts of the
agricultural sector. In fact, it already does. In the United States, the growth of the biofuel industry has triggered increases
not only in the prices of corn, oilseeds, and other grains but also in the prices of seemingly unrelated crops and
products. The use of land to grow corn to feed the ethanol maw is reducing the acreage devoted to other crops. Food
processors who use crops such as peas and sweet corn have been forced to pay higher prices to keep their supplies secure --
costs that will eventually be passed on to consumers. Rising feed prices are also hitting the livestock and poultry
industries. According to Vernon Eidman, a professor emeritus of agribusiness management at the University of Minnesota,
higher feed costs have caused returns to fall sharply, especially in the poultry and swine sectors. If returns continue to drop,
production will decline, and the prices for chicken, turkey, pork, milk, and eggs will rise. A number of Iowa's pork
producers could go out of business in the next few years as they are forced to compete with ethanol plants for corn supplies.

ETHANOL JACKS FOOD PRICES, CRUSHING CONSUMER WAGES


Canadian Press, 10-22-07, “Ethanol demand to push food prices 5% higher next year: economist,”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2007/10/22/ethanol-rubin.html, KAPUSTINA

The United States' policy of subsidizing ethanol to reduce its dependence on foreign oil is causing higher food prices in
Canada as well as the U.S., the chief economist of CIBC World Markets says.
"When you add it all up, it's fairly significant because food inflation is already well over four per cent, and we would
expect it to move higher as more and more corn production is diverted to ethanol as is required under President Bush's
plan," Jeff Rubin said Monday.
"When you overlay that with the inflationary hit from oil itself, they're going to produce the hottest inflation numbers that
we've seen yet this cycle."
The U.S. federal and state governments provide massive subsidies — $8 billion US last year — to encourage ethanol producers
to expand and corn farmers to supply the crops to make the fuel. The growing diversion into ethanol has resulted in a 60 per
cent rise in corn prices in the past two years, Rubin said.
This affects most food categories, since corn is not only a direct product for human consumption but is a major animal
feed whose cost affects meat prices. Derivatives such as corn syrup and corn starch are ingredients in a vast array of
processed foods and drinks.
Corn-based staples like tortillas have become more costly, along with other grains, fruits and vegetables that are pushed
aside as farmers cash in on corn. Canadians can expect their food prices to be squeezed as the United States "is a major,
major corn exporter to the rest of the world," Rubin said.
He predicts food costs will be rising at a rate of over five per cent next year and seven per cent by 2009, adding that for poor
Americans, food already consumes nearly 40 per cent of their spending.
"If wages don't respond, then it's a real wage cut for most folk because there aren't a whole lot of substitutes for food
and energy," he said.

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Biofuels Link
Biofuels exacerbate world hunger – increased biofuel demand means 1.2 billion
people will be starving by 2025

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, May/June ’07, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs Magazine,
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html
[Tandet]

Realistically, however, resorting to biofuels is likely to exacerbate world hunger. Several studies by economists at the World
Bank and elsewhere suggest that caloric consumption among the world's poor declines by about half of one percent
whenever the average prices of all major food staples increase by one percent. When one staple becomes more expensive,
people try to replace it with a cheaper one, but if the prices of nearly all staples go up, they are left with no alternative.

In a study of global food security we conducted in 2003, we projected that given the rates of economic and population growth,
the number of hungry people throughout the world would decline by 23 percent, to about 625 million, by 2025, so long as
agricultural productivity improved enough to keep the relative price of food constant. But if, all other things being equal, the
prices of staple foods increased because of demand for biofuels, as the IFPRI projections suggest they will, the number of
food-insecure people in the world would rise by over 16 million for every percentage increase in the real prices of staple
foods. That means that 1.2 billion people could be chronically hungry by 2025 -- 600 million more than previously
predicted.

The world's poorest people already spend 50 to 80 percent of their total household income on food. For the many among them
who are landless laborers or rural subsistence farmers, large increases in the prices of staple foods will mean malnutrition
and hunger. Some of them will tumble over the edge of subsistence into outright starvation, and many more will die from
a multitude of hunger-related diseases.

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Biofuels Link
Biofuels massively trade off with food production and increase prices

Joachim von Braun, 6-12-08, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Testimony before the
United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources,
http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/testimony/vonbraun20080612.asp, KAPUSTINA

Feedstock makes up the principal share of total biofuel production costs. It accounts for 50-70 percent and 70-80 percent
of overall costs for ethanol and biodiesel, respectively (IEA 2004). Net production costs, which refer to all costs related to
production (including investments), differ widely across countries. For instance, Brazil produces ethanol at about half the cost
of Australia and one-third the cost of Germany. However, feedstock costs have increased by 50 percent and more during the
past few years, impinging on comparative advantage and competitiveness. While the biofuel sector will contribute to price
changes, it will also be a victim of changes in feedstock prices.
The high price of energy is a key factor behind rising food prices. Energy and agricultural prices have become increasingly
intertwined. With oil prices at an all-time high and the U.S. government subsidizing farmers to grow crops for energy, U.S.
farmers have massively shifted their cultivation toward biofuel feedstocks, especially corn (see Table 1), often at the
expense of soybean and wheat cultivation.
An IFPRI study by Mark Rosegrant (2008) did a comparison between a simulation of actual demand for food crops as biofuel
feedstock through 2007 and a scenario simulating biofuel growth at the rate of 1990-2000 before the rapid takeoff in demand
for bioethanol. This approximates the contribution of biofuel demand to increases in grain prices from 2000 to 2007. The
percentage contribution of biofuel demand to price increases during that period is the difference between 2007 prices in the two
scenarios, divided by the increase in prices in the baseline from 2000 to 2007. The increased biofuel demand during the period,
compared with previous historical rates of growth, is estimated to have accounted for 30 percent of the increase in weighted
average grain prices. The biggest impact was on maize prices, for which increased biofuel demand is estimated to account
for 39 percent of the increase in real prices. Increased biofuel demand is estimated to account for 21 percent of the
increase in rice prices and 22 percent of the rise in wheat prices (Rosegrant 2008).

Increased ethanol use means farmers will grow less food for profit

Oil & Gas Journal, 4-28-08, “the new imperative, p. 19, lexis, KAPUSTINA
Promoters of fuel ethanol from grain and of diesel esters from oil seeds and other agricultural products insist that energy
costs explain most of the food-price jump. Land-use changes show those claims to be self-serving nonsense. Farmers
naturally dedicate acreage to crops that markets value most. In the US, that means corn, demand and prices for which are
soaring because of mandates for heavily subsidized fuel ethanol. Farmers consequently are growing less wheat, soybeans,
and other food crops, so those prices are soaring, too. Analogous patterns are evident elsewhere as governments push
biofuels--supposedly to fight pollution, lower emissions of greenhouse gases, and extend oil supply but mostly to enrich
farmers.

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Biofuels Link
Ethanol increases food prices, and other countries model what the US does,
jacking food prices globally
Associated Press, 4-30-08, “Stop biofuels to fight word hunger, food scientists say,”
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/04/30/tech-corn-prices.html, KAPUSTINA

Some top international food scientists Tuesday recommended halting the use of food-based biofuels, such as ethanol,
saying it would cut corn prices by 20 per cent during a looming world food crisis.
But even as the scientists were calling for a moratorium, U.S. President George W. Bush urged the opposite. He declared the
United States should increase ethanol use because of national energy security and high gas prices.
The conflicting messages Tuesday highlighted the ongoing debate over food and fuel needs.
The three senior scientists with an international research consortium pushing a biofuel moratorium said nations need to
rethink programs that divert food such as corn and soybeans into fuel, given the burgeoning worldwide food crisis. The
group, CGIAR, is a global network that uses science to fight hunger. It is funded by dozens of countries and private
foundations. If leading nations stopped biofuel use this year, it would lead to a price decline in corn of about 20 per cent
and wheat of about 10 per cent by 2009-10, said Joachim von Braun, who heads the International Food Policy Research
Institute in Washington, D.C., the policy arm of CGIAR.
Von Braun and the other scientists said work should be stepped up on the use of non-grain crops, such as switchgrass, for
biofuel.Another scientist, not associated with the group, agreed with their call for a halt on the use of grain for fuel."We
need to feed the stomach before we need to feed our cars," said Rattan Lal, an Ohio State University soil sciences
professor who in the past has been a critic of some of CGIAR's priorities.
"We have one billion people who are food insecure. We can't afford the luxury of not taking care of them and taking
care of gasoline." In an interview after the CGIAR teleconference, von Braun said the United States and other countries
have to make a hard choice between fighting high fuel prices and fighting world hunger.
"If you place a high value of food security for poor people, then the conclusion is clear that we step on the brake awhile," von
Braun said. "If you place a high value on national energy security, other considerations come into play."
Energy security is what Bush emphasized in his news conference. When asked about the conflict with world hunger and
the rising cost of food at home, he said the high price of gasoline would "spur more investment in ethanol as an
alternative to gasoline."
"And the truth of the matter is, it's in our national interest that our farmers grow energy, as opposed to us purchasing energy
from parts of the world that are unstable or may not like us," Bush said.
Still, Bush said the international food crisis "is of concern to us" and said the U.S. government earlier this month added another
$200 million in food aid.
Ethanol production spurs corn prices: World Bank
A World Bank study has estimated that corn prices "rose by over 60 per cent from 2005-07, largely because of the U.S.
ethanol program" combined with market forces.
Other nations, such as South Africa, have stopped or slowed the push to ethanol. But because the United States is the world's
biggest producer, if it does nothing, other nations' efforts will not amount to much, von Braun said.
Von Braun said many issues are causing the food crisis, especially market forces and speculation, but that biofuel use also
ranks high among the causes.
Scientists say the diversion of corn and soybeans for fuel helps force prices higher, and removes farm land from food
production. Ethanol supporters say the corn used for fuels is the type only fed to livestock. However, other experts say it
leads to higher livestock feed prices, thus higher food prices.
Because of this issue, legislators in Missouri are considering lifting a requirement that fuel in that state contain 10 per cent
ethanol.
Just how big biofuel's effect is on food prices depends on who is talking. Bush said it's responsible for about 15 per cent of the
rise in costs. U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesman Keith Williams put it closer to 20 per cent.
A soon to be released International Food Policy Research Institute analysis blames 30 per cent of the overall food price
rise from 2000-2007 on biofuels. An industry-funded study put the food cost rise from biofuels at four per cent.

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Biomass Link
Biomass uses large amounts of land that should be used for crops – it takes
120 square meters to provide enough power for 1 square meter of a city

Jesse H. Ausbel, Director of the Program for the Human Environment and Senior Research Associate at The Rockefeller University,
’07, “Renewable and Nuclear Heresies,” International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy, and Ecology,
phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/HeresiesFinal.pdf [Tandet]

Imagine, as energy analyst Howard Hayden has suggested, farmers use ample water, 
fertiliser, and pesticides to achieve 12,000 watts thermal per hectare (10,000 square 
metres). Imagine replacing a 1000MWe nuclear power plant with a 90% capacity factor. 
During a year, the nuclear plant will produce about 7.9 billionkWh. To obtain the same
electricity from a power plant that burns biomass at 30% heat-to-electricity efficiency, 
farmers would need about 250,000 hectares or 2500 square kilometres of land with very
high productivity. Harvesting and collecting the biomass are not 100% efficient; some 
gets left in fields or otherwise lost. 
Such losses mean that in round numbers a 1000MWe nuclear plant equates to more
than 2500 square kilometres of prime land. A typical Iowa county spans about 1000 square 
kilometres, so it would take at least two and a half counties to fire a station. A nuclear 
power plant consumes about ten hectares per unit or 40 hectares for a power park. 
Shifting entirely from baconburgers to kilowatts, Iowa’s 55,000 square miles might 
yield 50,000MWe. Prince Edward Island might produce about 2000MWe. 
The USA already consumes about ten and the world about 40 times the kilowatt 
hours that Iowa’s biomass could generate. Prime land has better uses, like feeding the
hungry. Ploughing marginal lands would require ten or 20 times the expanse and 
increase erosion. One hundred twenty square metres of New Brunswick or Manitoba 
might electrify one square metre of New York City. 

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Cassava Ethanol Link


Cassava-based ethanol production threatens food security in sub-Saharan
Africa by removing a staple crop

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, May/June ’07, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs Magazine,
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html
[Tandet]

The production of cassava-based ethanol may pose an especially grave threat to the food security of the world's poor.
Cassava, a tropical potato-like tuber also known as manioc, provides one-third of the caloric needs of the population in
sub-Saharan Africa and is the primary staple for over 200 million of Africa's poorest people. In many tropical countries, it
is the food people turn to when they cannot afford anything else. It also serves as an important reserve when other crops
fail because it can grow in poor soils and dry conditions and can be left in the ground to be harvested as needed.

Thanks to its high-starch content, cassava is also an excellent source of ethanol. As the technology for converting it to fuel
improves, many countries -- including China, Nigeria, and Thailand -- are considering using more of the crop to that end. If
peasant farmers in developing countries could become suppliers for the emerging industry, they would benefit from the
increased income. But the history of industrial demand for agricultural crops in these countries suggests that large producers
will be the main beneficiaries. The likely result of a boom in cassava-based ethanol production is that an increasing
number of poor people will struggle even more to feed themselves.

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Corn Ethanol Link


Corn ethanol takes field space from other crops, increasing crop prices globally
and causing global poverty and food insecurity

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, May/June ’07, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs Magazine,
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html
[Tandet]

The industry's growth has meant that a larger and larger share of corn production is being used to feed the huge mills that
produce ethanol. According to some estimates, ethanol plants will burn up to half of U.S. domestic corn supplies within a
few years. Ethanol demand will bring 2007 inventories of corn to their lowest levels since 1995 (a drought year), even though
2006 yielded the third-largest corn crop on record. Iowa may soon become a net corn importer.

The enormous volume of corn required by the ethanol industry is sending shock waves through the food system. (The
United States accounts for some 40 percent of the world's total corn production and over half of all corn exports.) In
March 2007, corn futures rose to over $4.38 a bushel, the highest level in ten years. Wheat and rice prices have also surged
to decade highs, because even as those grains are increasingly being used as substitutes for corn, farmers are planting more
acres with corn and fewer acres with other crops.

This might sound like nirvana to corn producers, but it is hardly that for consumers, especially in poor developing countries,
who will be hit with a double shock if both food prices and oil prices stay high. The World Bank has estimated that in 2001,
2.7 billion people in the world were living on the equivalent of less than $2 a day; to them, even marginal increases in the
cost of staple grains could be devastating. Filling the 25-gallon tank of an SUV with pure ethanol requires over 450 pounds
of corn -- which contains enough calories to feed one person for a year. By putting pressure on global supplies of edible crops,
the surge in ethanol production will translate into higher prices for both processed and staple foods around the world.
Biofuels have tied oil and food prices together in ways that could profoundly upset the relationships between food producers,
consumers, and nations in the years ahead, with potentially devastating implications for both global poverty and food
security.

Corn-based ethanol drives price hikes that spill over and increase other crop
prices

Mark W. Rosegrant, Director of Environment and Production Technology Division at the International Food Policy Research
Institute, 5-7-08, “Biofuels and Grain Prices: Impacts and Policy Responses,” Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/testimony/rosegrant20080507.asp [Tandet]

The role of biofuel policies in the food-price hikes has become particularly controversial. The rapid increase in demand for
and production of biofuels, particularly bioethanol from maize and sugarcane, has had a number of effects on grain
supply-and-demand systems. Expanded production of ethanol from maize, in particular, has increased total demand for
maize and shifted land area away from production of maize for food and feed, stimulating increased prices for maize.
Rising maize prices, in turn, have affected other grains. On the demand side, higher prices for maize have caused food
consumers to shift from maize (which is still a significant staple food crop in much of the developing world) to rice and
wheat. On the supply side, higher maize prices made maize more profitable to grow, causing some farmers to shift from
rice and wheat (and other crop) cultivation to maize cultivation. These demand- and supply-side effects have tended to
increase the price of rice and wheat and other crops.

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Geothermal Link
Geothermal drilling pollutes arable land

MIT Scientific Study, 1-22-07, http://geothermal.inel.gov/publications/future_of_geothermal_energy.pdf, KAPUSTINA


The major environmental issues for EGS are associated with ground-water use and contamination,
with related concerns about induced seismicity or subsidence as a result of water injection and
production. Issues of noise, safety, visual impacts, and land use associated with drilling and
production operations are also important but fully manageable.

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Hydropower Link
Hydropower plants take up huge amounts of land – one square kilometer only
provides power for 12 people

Jesse H. Ausbel, Director of the Program for the Human Environment and Senior Research Associate at The Rockefeller University,
’07, “Renewable and Nuclear Heresies,” International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy, and Ecology,
phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/HeresiesFinal.pdf [Tandet]

For the USA as a whole, the capacity of all existing hydropower plants is about 
97,500MWe, and their average production is about 37,500MWe. The average power
intensity – the watts divided by the land area of the USA – is 0.005 watts per square
metre, that is, the approximate power that can be obtained from a huge tract of land
that drains into a reservoir for a power station. 
Imagine the entire province of Ontario, about 900,000 square km, collecting its entire
680,000 billion litres of rain, an average annual rainfall of about 0.8m. Imagine collecting 
all that water, every drop, behind a dam of about 60 metres height. Doing so might 
inundate half the province, and thus win the support of the majority of Canadians, who 
resent the force of Ontario. This comprehensive ‘Ontario Hydro’ would produce about 
11,000MW or about four fifths the output of Canada’s 25 nuclear power stations, or about
0.012 watts per square metre or more than twice the USA average. In my ‘flood Ontario’ 
scenario, a square kilometre would provide the electricity for about 12 Canadians. 
This low density and the attending ecological and cultural headaches explain the trend 
in most of the world from dam building to dam removal. About 40% of Canada’s immense 
total land area is effectively dammed for electrons already. The World Commission on 
Dams issued a report in November 2000 that essentially signalled the end of hydropower 
development globally. While the Chinese are constructing more dams, few foresee even 
ten thousand megawatts’ further growth from hydropower. 

New hydroelectric plants would require 24 million hectares of new land


development

David Pimental et al., group of scientists studying alternative energies for the American Institute of Biological Sciences, ’94,
“Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues,” BioScience journal, http://www.jstor.org/sici?sici=0006-
3568(199409)44%3A8%3C536%3AREEAEI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3&cookieSet=1) [Tandet]

Hydroelectric plants require land for their water-storage reservoirs.  An analysis of 50 hydroelectric sites  in the United
States indicated that  an average of 75,000 ha of reservoir area are required per 1 billion kWh/ yr produced (Table 2).
However,  the size of reservoir per unit of elec-  tricity produced varies widely, rang-  ing from 482 ha to 763,000 ha per 1
billion kWh/yr depending upon the  hydro head, terrain, and additional  uses made of the reservoir (Table 2).  The latter
include flood control, stor-  age of water for public and irriga-  tion supplies, and/or recreation  (EERC 1984). For the United
States  the energy input/output ratio was  calculated to be 1:48 (Table 2); for  Europe an estimate of 1:15 has been  reported
(Winter et al. 1992).  Based on regional estimates of land use and average annual energy generation, approximately 63
mil- lion hectares of the total of 917 million ha of land area in the United States are currently covered with reservoirs.
To develop the remain- ing best candidate sites, assuming  land requirements similar to those  in past developments, an
additional 24 million hectares of land would be needed for water storage (Table 3).

Note: ha stands for hectare.

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Photovoltaic Link
PV’s are land-inefficient – one liter of nuclear power is equivalent to one
hectare of PV cells

Jesse H. Ausbel, Director of the Program for the Human Environment and Senior Research Associate at The Rockefeller University,
’07, “Renewable and Nuclear Heresies,” International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy, and Ecology,
phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/HeresiesFinal.pdf [Tandet]

Although negligible as a source of electric power today, photovoltaics also earn a


traditional bow. Sadly, PVs remain stuck at about 10% efficiency, with no breakthroughs
in 30 years. Today performance reaches about 5–6 watts per square metre. But no
economies of scale inhere in PV systems. A 1000MWe PV plant would require about 150 
square kilometres plus land for storage and retrieval. Present USA electric consumption
would require 150,000 square kilometres or a square almost 400 kilometres on each side. 
The PV industry now makes about 600 metres by 600 metres per year. About 600,000 
times this amount would be needed to replace the 1000MWe nuclear plant, but only a 
few square kilometres have ever been manufactured in total. 
Viewed another way, to produce with solar cells the amount of energy generated in one
litre of the core of a nuclear reactor requires one hectare of solar cells. To compete at 
making the millions of megawatts for the baseload of the world energy market, the cost
and complication of solar collectors still need to shrink by orders of magnitude while
efficiency soars. 

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Solar Power Link


Solar plants require large plots of land- agricultural areas and essential food
resources will be destroyed

David Pimentel & Marcia Pimentel, 1990, from the Department of Entomology and Division of Nutritional Sciences,
respectively, Cornell University, “LAND, ENERGY AND WATER:
THE CONSTRAINTS GOVERNING IDEAL U.S. POPULATION SIZE,” http://dieoff.org/page136.htm KAPUSTINA

Another factor to consider is that only 0.1% to 0.2% of the total solar energy per hectare can be harvested as biomass in
the temperate region (Pimentel et al., 1984). This is because solar energy is captured by plants only during their brief
growing season and for three-quarters of the year most plants are not growing (ERAB, 1981). To solve this problem will
necessitate the use of relatively large land areas and large capital equipment investments for conversion of the energy into
usable form.
This same biomass vegetation provides the food and shelter for a wide variety of important natural biota that help keep our
natural environment healthy. Some species recycle wastes and nutrients, others help clean our air, soil, and water of pollutants.
Without sufficient biomass these essential processes would stop.
Yet at our present population level, to sustain our lives and activities we are burning 40% more fossil energy than the total
amount of solar energy captured by all plant biomass (ERAB, 1981). Clearly, our consumption of resources, especially
nonrenewable fossil fuels, is out of balance with our supplies. The plain fact is that we are depleting these resources at an
alarming rate and we now need to find and develop other energy sources.
Because almost three-quarters of the land area in the United States is devoted to agriculture and commercial forestry
(USDA, 1987), only a relatively small percentage of our land area is available for harvesting biomass and other solar
energy technologies to support a solar energy-based U.S. economy.
The inevitable conclusion is that the availability of land will be the major constraint to the expanded use of solar energy
systems because land is needed for solar energy, and this need cannot encroach on that needed by agriculture, forestry,
and natural biota in the ecosystem. Our expanding human population can be expected to put increasingly great
pressure on land availability and use.
The amount of land required to provide solar-based electricity for a city of 100,000 people illustrates the land
constraints. To provide the needed 1 billion kWh/yr from wood biomass would require maintaining 330,000 hectares of
permanent forest (Table 3). Even hydropower is, in part, land based, because on average it requires 13,000 hectares of land
for an adequate size reservoir. Then too, the land used for the reservoir is often good, productive agricultural land (Pimentel
et al., 1984). Thus, solar energy and hydropower have serious land and environmental limitations. Note that nuclear and
coal-fired power plants, including mining, require relatively small areas of land compared to biomass and hydropower
production.

Solar power requires large areas of land

John C. Mankins, former manager of NASA’s Advanced Concepts Studies Office of Space Flight, ’97, “A fresh look at space solar
power: New architectures, concepts and technologies,” Advanced Projects Office of the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V1N-3TDH483-
V&_user=4257664&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000022698&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=4
257664&md5=25671813feddd13175814cc6a164b28c [Tandet]

All solar power concepts - space-based or terrestrial - inherently require large areas. Since the sun provides about 1365
watts per square meter of energy at the Earth’s orbit, generating a megawatt with a 20% efficient array requires an area of
about 3700 square meters. However, the SPS concept that emerged by 1979 was not only large, it was also infrastructure-
rich because it was based upon the large, astronaut-erected space platform concepts that were common of this era in
which Gerard O’Neil and others envisioned the eventual construction of vast, artificial cities in space.

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Solar Power Link


Solar plants would take up land plots the size of England

Steven Milloy, 10-1-07, “Renewable Energy Harms Environment, Says Leading Environmental Activist,”
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=21985, KAPUSTINA

Solar power is also quite a land hog, according to Ausubel. As photovoltaic cells are only 10 percent efficient and have seen
no real breakthroughs in 30 years, U.S. electric consumption would require a 150,000 square kilometer area of
photovoltaics--an area the size of England--plus additional land for electricity storage and retrieval.
The photovoltaic industry would have to step up its production by 600,000 times its current output to produce the same
amount of power as is generated by a single 1,000 megawatt nuclear plant.

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Wind Power Link


Wind power uses lots of land – the entire state of Texas would have to be
covered to provide enough electricity

Jesse H. Ausbel, Director of the Program for the Human Environment and Senior Research Associate at The Rockefeller University,
’07, “Renewable and Nuclear Heresies,” International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy, and Ecology,
phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/HeresiesFinal.pdf [Tandet]

Although, or because, wind provides only 0.2% of US electricity, the idol of wind 
evokes much worship. The basic fact of wind is that it provides about 1.2 watts per
square metre or 12,000 watts per hectare of year-round average electric power. Consider, 
for example, the $212 million wind farm about 30 kilometres south of Lamar, CO, where 
108 1.5MWe wind turbines stand 80 metres tall, their blades sweeping to 115 metres. 
The wind farm spreads over 4800 hectares. At 30% capacity, peak power density is the 
typical 1.2 watts per square metre.
One problem is that two of the four wind speed regimes produce no power at all.
Calm air means no power of course, and gales faster than 25 metres per second (about 
90 kilometres per hour) mean shutting down lest the turbine blow apart. Perhaps three 
to ten times more compact than biomass, a wind farm occupying about 770 square
kilometres could produce as much energy as one 1000MWe nuclear plant. To meet 2005
US electricity demand of about four million MWhr with around-the-clock-wind would
have required wind farms covering over 780,000 square kilometres, about Texas plus
Louisiana, or about 1.2 times the area of Alberta. Canada’s demand is about 10% of 
the USA and corresponds to about the area of New Brunswick. 
For linear thinkers, a single file line of windmills has a power density of about 
5 kilowatts per metre. If Christo could string windmills single file along Rocky Mountain 
ridges half way from Vancouver to Calgary, about 1200km, the output would be about 
the same as one of the four Darlington CANDU units. 
Rapidly exhausted economies of scale stop wind. One hundred windy square metres,
a good size for a Manhattan apartment, can power a lamp or two, but not the clothes 
washer and dryer, microwave oven, plasma TVs or computers or dozens of other devices 
in the apartment, or the apartments above or below it. New York City would require every
square metre of Connecticut to become a windfarm if the wind blew in Hartford as in 
Lamar. The idol of wind would decarbonise but will be minor. 

Wind farms would take up land plots the size of Texas

Steven Milloy, 10-1-07, “Renewable Energy Harms Environment, Says Leading Environmental Activist,”
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=21985, KAPUSTINA

Wind power, Ausubel's study shows, is much less land-intensive than biomass, but that's not saying much. A 770 square
kilometer area would produce only as much electricity as a single 1,000 megawatt nuclear plant.
A wind farm the size of Texas would be required to extract, store, and transport annual U.S. energy needs. "Every square
meter of Connecticut" would have to be turned into a wind farm just to provide all of New York City's electricity
demands, Ausubel notes.

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Internal Link – Ag Industry Spillover


Increased price of one crop causes farmers to plant more of that crop and less
of other crops, jacking prices across the ag sector

The Guardian, 5-30-08, “Burning food: why oil is the real villain in the food crisis,”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/30/biofuels.food [Tandet]

But the effect is not limited to maize. Price rises in one commodity inevitably spill over to other crops. Farmers switch
from producing wheat and other grains as the price of corn rises, reducing the supply of other cereals. Similarly,
increasingly expensive corn encourages food manufacturers to switch to other grains, and livestock producers to feed
their animals with other foods. Soybeans, for example, are used for cattle feed when the price of corn goes up. The IMF
thinks that 40% of the inflation in soybean costs is directly down to the expansion in biofuels around the world.

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Internal Link – Global Spillover


Global markets are intertwined – price hikes in the US spill over to the rest of
the world

Brendan Barrett, Ph.D. in environmental urban planning and member of the IUCN Commission on Education and Communication,
7-4-08, “What in the World Is Propelling Food Prices?”, United Nations University, http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/2008/07/04/why-are-
food-prices-going-up/#authordata [Tandet]

It is very easy, when surrounded by supermarkets full of goods, to believe that this is simply a problem for the developing
world. It is certainly true that the immediate impact and consequent food riots have been in developing countries. However,
global markets have become increasingly intertwined. The FAO warns that the “linkages and spill-over effects from one
market to another have greatly increased in recent years, not only among agricultural commodities, but across all
commodities and between commodities and the financial sector.”

High food prices spill over from one market to commodities markets and
financial sectors globally

FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (a division of ECOSOC), November ’07, Food Outlook: Global
Market Analysis, “HIGH PRICES AND VOLATILITY IN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES,”
http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ah876e/ah876e13.htm [Tandet]

The persistent upward trend in international prices of most agricultural commodities since last year is only in part a reflection
of a tightening in their own supplies. Global markets have become increasingly intertwined. As a result, linkages and spill-
over effects from one market to another have greatly increased in recent years, not only among agricultural
commodities, but across all commodities and between commodities and the financial sector.

Market-oriented policies are gradually making agricultural markets more transparent and, in the process, are elongating the
financial opportunities for increased portfolio diversification and reduction in risk exposures. This is a development that is
taking place just as financial markets around the world are experiencing the most rapid growth, driven by plentiful international
liquidity. This abundance of liquidity reflects favourable economic performances around the world, notably among emerging
economies, low interest rates and high petroleum prices. These developments have paved the way for massive amounts of cash
becoming available for investment (by equity investors, funds, etc.) in markets that use financial instruments linked to the
functioning of agricultural commodity markets (e.g. future and option markets). The buoyant financial markets are boosting
asset allocation and drawing the attention of speculators to such markets, as a way of spreading their risk and pursuing of
more lucrative returns. Such influx of liquidity is likely to influence the underlying spot markets to the extent that they affect
the decisions of farmers, traders and processors of agricultural commodities. It seems more likely, though, that speculators
contribute more to raising spot price volatility rather than their levels.

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Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices


Drops in production of grains jacks food prices globally – food prices are based
on grain supplies
Tampa Tribune, 1-20-96, “Grain shortage growing problem,” Nation/World pg. 1, Lexis [Tandet]

On a global scale, food supplies - measured by stockpiles of grain - are not abundant. In 1995, world production failed to
meet demand for the third consecutive year, said Per Pinstrup-Andersen, director of the International Food Policy Research
Institute in Washington, D.C. As a result, grain stockpiles fell from an average of 17 percent of annual consumption in 1994-
1995 to 13 percent at the end of the 1995-1996 season, he said. That's troubling, Pinstrup-Andersen noted, since 13 percent is
well below the 17 percent the United Nations considers essential to provide a margin of safety in world food security. During
the food crisis of the early 1970s, world grain stocks were at 15 percent. "Even if they are merely blips, higher international
prices can hurt poor countries that import a significant portion of their food," he said. "Rising prices can also quickly
put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion people in the developing world who live on a dollar a day or less." He also said
many people in low-income countries already spend more than half of their income on food.

Loss of agricultural land provokes high food prices


The Times, British newspaper, 6-26-08, “We can feed the world: look at all the space,”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4214797.ece [Tandet]

This thesis does not stand up to examination. Have a look at this statistic: the total landmass cultivated for arable crops in 2006,
according Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), was 1.402 billion hectares - or 14 million sq km. In
other words, all the world's cereals and vegetables are grown on an area equivalent to the USA and half of Canada. A
further 34 million sq km - equivalent to the rest of North America, South America and two thirds of Australia - is given over to
grazing, much of it extensive, unimproved grassland. The rest of the world - equivalent to the whole of Europe, Asia, Africa,
Indonesia plus a third of Australia - is not used for food production in any way.

Some of this land, of course, is desert, mountain or rainforest, which either cannot be used for agriculture at all or would
require irrigation, engineering or clearance. But a vast amount of it could quite easily be converted into agriculture, but has
until now not been needed. Take Russia, which, apart from its northern fringe of tundra, spans the temperate belt. Just 7 per
cent of Russia is turned over to arable crops, and another 5 per cent to grazing.

Moreover, the quantity of agricultural land in Russia is shrinking: 23 million hectares of arable land - equivalent to the
whole of Britain - have been abandoned since the end of communism.

For Russia, read the world: the background to rising food prices is the shrinkage of global agriculture over the past decade
and a half.

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Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices


Higher food prices are a direct result of land use changes

Jerri Husch, Ph.D. in sociology, professor at University of Massachusetts, and UNDP expert, 4-23-08, “Rising Food Prices – What
Should Be Done?”, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/bp/bp001.asp [Tandet]

Although this is an excellent analysis, it works from an economic perspective that unfortunately omits another critical
reason for the crisis...land use and changing patterns of agricultural production.

It is important to remember that much of the world’s poor also used to maintain their nutritional intake through the use of
small plot farms and kitchen gardens...plus a chicken, goat or cow or two. The buying up of land...or the renting of land to
large agribusiness for factory farming have also affected how much of the world's population can feed itself. When Ghanian
women lost their poultry cooperatives due to the lack of capital...they also lost more than their livelihood...they lost the battle to
produce their own food stuff....now they can barely afford chicken....which is surplus US.

The food crisis is a land use crisis...and that is much deeper than simply an economic crisis in supply and demand.

Land is limited – alt energies take up agricultural land, driving up food prices

The Mail, British newspaper, 6-19-08, “Demand for green biofuels pushing up food prices, Government report warns,”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1027787/Demand-green-biofuels-pushing-food-prices-Government-report-warns.html

'The real problem is the sheer scale of the EU’s biofuels target. Finding enough land to grow 10 per cent of Europe’s road
transport fuel will be bad for people and bad for wildlife. So-called sustainability criteria won’t solve this alone.
'European Government’s must drop these targets and concentrate on cutting fuel use by improving public transport and
insisting that all new cars use petrol much more smartly.
Most of the biofuels now in use are derived from food crops such as corn, palm, soya and rapeseed.
In America around a third of all corn is used for fuel, while half of Europe's vegetable oil goes towards biofuel production.
The draft report, by Prof Ed Gallagher of the Renewable Fuels Agency, called for more research into the impact of biofuels on
food supplies and land use before the Government sets new targets.
It also said distinctions should be made between the current first generation of biofuels made from food crops, and future
'second generation' which could be based on non-food crops or plants which grow on ground unsuitable for conventional crops.
Critics say biofuels take up land that would otherwise be used for food, reducing food supplies and driving up prices.
The grain needed to fill the tank of a 4x4 car could feed one person for a year, they say.
They also warn that valuable rain-forests in South America and Asia are being destroyed to create land to meet the
demand for biofuels.
And they say that the carbon emissions from growing and transporting the fuels are high.

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Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices


Decrease in agricultural land drives up food prices
Joachim von Braun, April 2008, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute, “Rising Food Prices:
What Should Be Done?” IFPRI Brief, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/bp/bp001.pdf, KAPUSTINA

The combination of new and ongoing forces is driving the world food situation and, in turn, the prices of food commodities.
One emerging factor behind rising food prices is the high price of energy. Energy and agricultural prices have become
increasingly intertwined (see figure). With oil prices at an all-time high of more than US$100 a barrel and the U.S.
government subsidizing farmers to grow crops for energy, U.S. farmers have massively shifted their cultivation toward
biofuel feedstocks, especially maize, often at the expense of soybean and wheat cultivation. About 30 percent of U.S. maize
production will go into ethanol in 2008 rather than into world food and feed markets. High energy prices have also made
agricultural production more expensive by raising the cost of mechanical cultivation, inputs like fertilizers and pesticides, and
transportation of inputs and outputs.

Less agricultural land decreases supply and increases prices


Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Summer 2008, “Breaking the Link Between Food and Biofuels,”
http://www.card.iastate.edu/iowa_ag_review/summer_08/article1.aspx, KAPUSTINA

Biofuel feedstocks can have both direct and indirect effects on food supplies. If biofuels are produced from feedstocks that
would have been used for food, then biofuels directly reduce potential food supplies. This reduction occurs even if feedstock
price increases result in an expansion of supply because the expanded feedstock supply will typically reduce the supply
of other food crops. For example, U.S. corn used to produce ethanol reduces the amount of feed available for livestock.
The large expansion in the supply of corn in response to ethanol's growth reduces the amount of acres planted to soybeans
in the United States. In aggregate, there are fewer acres devoted to food production than there would be in the absence of
biofuels.
The resulting price increase from the reduction in supply will induce farmers to expand planted acres. If the new
acres would not otherwise have been cultivated, then there are greenhouse gas consequences from the newly tilled acres that can
be attributed to expanded biofuels. The greenhouse gas emissions from tilling new land can dramatically reduce the net reductions
that can be achieved with biofuels.

Increase in population means more food is needed- use of land for other
purposes jacks food prices
USA Today, 2-11-08, “Global demand lifts grain prices, gobbles supplies,” http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-
02-11-food-prices_N.htm, KAPUSTINA

The driving force behind higher food prices: More people in developing countries are earning more money and living
better. And the first step to a better standard of living is a better diet. It's a phenomenon called Engel's law, named after the
19th-century German economist, Ernst Engel. Engel's law says that as incomes increase, people spend a smaller percentage of
their incomes on food — but they also switch from cheaper to more expensive food.
Grains make up around 60% of the diet in low-income Asian nations, North Africa and the former Soviet republics. Vegetable
oil is about 12% of the diet in Sub-Saharan Africa and about 10% in some Asian and Latin American countries, according to
the U.S. Agriculture Department. The vegetable oil share of diets is growing as more processed foods are available in low-
income countries.
People in developing countries are also starting to eat more meat, and that drives up demand for grains. It takes about
eight times as much corn to produce the same number of calories from meat as from bread, says Homi Kharas, senior fellow at
the Brookings Institution.
Surging demand for food and feed has tightened grain stocks. The U.S. Agriculture Department, for example, pegs U.S.
wheat stockpiles at the lowest level since shortly after World War II. Farmers are reporting tight supplies of seeds for planting.
And, says Bob Lee, manager of Fidelity Select Consumer Staples, planting more grain isn't as easy as it may sound.
"There's only so much arable land in the world," Lee says. "It's not just pouring capital at the problem; you have to find
appropriate land, too.
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Internal Link – Land Use = Higher Food Prices


Diverting land to alternative energy decreases food supply, while demand
continues to rise. Imbalance increases food prices
VOA News, 5-16-08, “Market Forces Impact World Food Prices,” http://www.voanews.com/english/NewsAnalysis/2008-
05-16-voa5.cfm, KAPUSTINA
.
"There are real supply and demand side factors, which are aggravated by speculation, by restrictions on trade. On the
supply side, we've had bad news in terms of rice harvests in Australia, in Japan and a few other countries that have diminished
the supply, at least temporarily. We also have had a switch to biofuels that has pulled land out of food production, most
importantly corn. We are diverting land to produce some biofuels," says Baker. "On the demand side, we are seeing
growth. We are seeing increased demand from China and India as they grow wealthier."
David Lehman of the CME Group, a commodities firm that formed after last year's merger of the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade, says growing wealth in developing countries like China and India means more
demand.
"It's hard for the rest of the market to fathom just what impact that would have. There are billions of people in that part
of the world that suddenly have more disposable income. So there's greater demand for meat, which is greater demand
for livestock feed, for corn and soybeans. It's very difficult for the market to know how quickly that supply will be
needed. And high prices do that," says Lehman. "That's exactly the role of the market."

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Internal Link – Malnourishment


Higher food prices reduce access to food, leading to irreversible gaps in health
and productivity and malnourishment

Mark W. Rosegrant, Director of Environment and Production Technology Division at the International Food Policy Research
Institute, 5-7-08, “Biofuels and Grain Prices: Impacts and Policy Responses,” Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/testimony/rosegrant20080507.asp [Tandet]

Higher food prices reduce the poor's access to food, which has possible long-term, irreversible consequences for health,
productivity, and well-being—particularly if higher prices lead to reduced food consumption by infants and preschool
children. If the current biofuel expansion continues, calorie availability in developing countries is expected to grow more
slowly; and the number of malnourished children is projected to increase, even though agricultural value added in these
regions would also accelerate as a result of higher farm incomes.

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Internal Link – Small Business Collapse


Small businesses are at a crisis point – if food prices rise further, small
businesses will collapse

Retail Bakers of America, March ’08, “Statement on Wheat Crisis,” http://www.rbanet.com/RBA%20Statement.pdf. [Tandet]
There is a “CRISIS” happening to bakers of every type and size. Commodities prices for every item we use are out of
control and rising faster than we could ever hope to catch them. If there is not some type of relief soon many small
businesses will not survive. Wheat prices are putting enormous pressure on the baker’s ability to produce affordable,
healthy products for our consumers. RBA and retail bakers are very concerned about the price increases that will have to
be passed on to consumers as bakery owners take action to ensure the survival of their businesses. Retail bakers in U.S. are
facing escalating costs for commodities that they have never experienced before and that are threatening to overwhelm
the entire industry. With critically low reserves and the severe conditions in the wheat markets, the baking industry is at
a crisis point. RBA is urging Congress to support an early out of the non-environmentally-sensitive acreage from the
Conservation Reserve Program. RBA also urges Congress to ensure an adequate level of strategic grain

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Internal Link – US Foreign Food Aid


Higher food prices force cuts in US foreign food aid

International Food Policy Research Institute paraphrasing Jonathan Dworken (qualifications in card), 2-12-08, “Rising
Food Prices: Implications and Consequences,” http://www.ifpri.org/events/seminars/2008/20080212foodprices.asp [Tandet]

Jonathan Dworken, deputy director of the U.S. Agency for International


Development’s Office of Food for Peace (FFP), explained that because food prices are
rising while food aid funding is staying relatively steady, the level of food aid tonnage
and the number of beneficiaries are declining in a context of increasing needs. In the six
months preceding February 2008, the price estimates of commodities purchased for
FFP’s food aid programs rose by 41 percent. With these higher than anticipated prices,
FFP now needs to set aside up to an additional US$120 million for commodities already
purchased, or in the process of being purchased, for emergency programs because their
prices are higher than anticipated. This means that up to US$120 million must be cut
from emergency food aid contributions planned for the second half of the fiscal year.

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Famine Impact Ext.


World War 3 results
William H. Calvin, Professor of Biology – University of Washington, ’02, “A Brain for All Season”,
http://WilliamCalvin.com/BrainForAllSeasons/ NAcoast.htm]

The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields will cause some powerful countries to
try to take over their neighbors or distant lands – if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, will go
marauding, both at home and across the borders. The better-organized countries will attempt to use their armies, before
they fall apart entirely, to take over countries with significant remaining resources, driving out or starving their
inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminating competitors for the remaining food.
This will be a worldwide problem – and could easily lead to a Third World War – but Europe's vulnerability is particularly
easy to analyze.The last abrupt cooling, the Younger Dryas, drastically altered Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-
day Europe has more than 650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own food. It could no longer do so
if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic.

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High Food Prices Bad


High food prices kill half the planet
Lester Brown, President – Earth Policy Institute, ‘05, People and the Planet, “Falling Water Tables 'Could Hit Food Supply'”, 2-7
http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2424]

Many Americans see terrorism as the principal threat to security, but for much of humanity, the effect of water shortages and
rising temperatures on food security are far more important issues. For the 3 billion people who live on 2 dollars a day or less
and who spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food, even a modest rise in food prices can quickly become life-threatening.
For them, it is the next meal that is the overriding concern."

Food price fluctuations kill a billion


Tampa Tribune, 1-20-96, Lexis
That's troubling, Pinstrup-Andersen noted, since 13 percent is well below the 17 percent the United Nations considers essential to
provide a margin of safety in world food security. During the food crisis of the early 1970s, world grain stocks were at 15 percent.
"Even if they are merely blips, higher international prices can hurt poor countries that import a significant portion of their food,"
he said. "Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach of the 1.1 billion people in the developing world who live on a dollar
a day or less." He also said many people in low-income countries already spend more than half of their income on food.

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High Food Prices Bad


Higher Prices do not cause production
Kimberly Ann Elliot, Senior Fellow – Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, ’06,
Delivering on Doha: Farm Trade and the Poor, p. 83-85]

Higher world prices resulting from agricultural liberalization by rich countries should stimulate increased production and
exports by farmers in poor countries with comparative advantage in those products—if the price signal gets to those
farmers. But as recent research at the World Bank indicates, border price changes do not always reach remote areas
where the costs of getting goods to and from markets are high (Nicita 2004). Government policies, such as overvalued
exchange rates or the maintenance of monopolistic state trading companies, can also mute market signals. Unless these
domestic challenges are also addressed, potential benefits from trade liberalization may go unrealized. “Connecting the
poor to markets” (Lucas and Timmer 2005) requires access to credit and inputs, storage facilities, telecommunications, roads,
and ports. Processing facilities, which add value and create jobs for the rural poor, especially for products with higher value
added such as meat and dairy and the more dynamic fruit and vegetable sectors, require reliable sources of electricity for
refrigeration. In many areas with spotty rainfall, irrigation projects will also be necessary to expand production. Many parts of
sub-Saharan Africa need improved seed varieties and methods for dealing with pests. Some of the barriers to getting products
to market in developing countries are suggested by the data in table 4.10. The road network in low-income countries is less
than a quarter of that in upper-middle-income countries, and only a quarter of those roads are paved. Even in middle-income
countries only half the roads are paved, compared with 95 percent in developed countries. Thirty of the 31 land-locked
developing countries have low or lower-middle incomes, and most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. Aircraft departures are
much less frequent in lower-income countries, and only about 4 out of 100 people in low-income countries have phones, versus
about 1 in 2 in upper-middle-income countries. Further indication of relative trade costs is provided by the costs of insurance
and freight, which are on average twice as high for developing-country exports as for developed countries.

High Food Prices Won’t Boost Income


Dr. Daryll E. Ray, Professor and Blasingame Chair of Excellence, Director of the Agricultural Policy Analysis Center – University of
Tennessee, ’03, “Rethinking US Agricultural Policy: Changing Course to Secure Farmer Livelihoods Worldwide”, Agricultural Policy
Analysis Center Report, 8-20, http://www.agpolicy.org/blueprint/APAC%20Report%208-20-03%20WITH%20COVER.pdf]

Higher prices alone will not guarantee sustainable livelihoods for the world’s poorest farmers. A range of national and
international policies affecting credit, land ownership, technology, transportation, tariff protection and access to markets
is essential if agricultural production is to deliver a better future for farmers. However, as this study has shown, the US is
exporting poverty with its products by its continuous pursuit of measures that depress prices throughout the world. At the same
time, it is jeopardizing its own diversified family-farm base. Policies that assure rock-bottom world prices for staple foods are
guarantors of continued economic distress affecting billions of people. Since our policies determine the fate of farmers well
beyond our borders, the welfare and future of those farmers must be part of America's goal in crafting new approaches.
Changing US policy alone cannot solve the global crisis in agriculture. Most, if not all, major exporting countries will have
to recognize that they, too, bear a heavy responsibility to cooperate with the US in a concerted effort to improve farmer
livelihoods. If other nations do not recognize this responsibility, it is doubtful that the necessary changes will ever be enacted.

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China Impact Module


Increased food prices cause Chinese econ collapse

Lester Brown, 1995, founded the Earth Policy Institute. 23 honorary degrees, a MacArthur Fellowship, the 1987 United Nations'
Environment Prize, the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature Gold Medal, and the 1994 Blue Planet.
, “Who Will Feed China?” p. 133-4, Worldwatch Institute, KAPUSTINA

In the new era, political leaders will be called on to govern under unfamiliar conditions. Their understanding of the world, their
values, and their priorities were shaped in a far different age. With the new era comes the need for different priorities in the
use of public resources- priorities that recognize food scarcity rather than military aggression as the principal threat to
security.
In an integrated economy where expanding human demand for food is colliding with the earth’s natural limits,
population growth anywhere limits the ability of popular opinion, it will not be in the devastation of poverty-stricken
Somalia or Haiti but in the booming economy of China that we will see the inevitable collision between the expanding
demand for food and the limits of some of the earth’s most basic natural systems.
In addition to raising food prices, the failure to arrest the deterioration of our basic life-support systems could
bring economic growth to a halt, dropping incomes and food purchasing power throughout the world. It could lead to
political unrest and a swelling of hungry migrants across national borders. Rising food prices and the associated
economic and political disruptions within China could bring that nation’s economic miracle to a premature
end.

Chinese economic collapse leads to World War Three – multiple scenarios


Tom Plate, professor at UCLA, 6-28-03, ““Neo-Cons A Bigger Risk to Bush Than China,” Straits Times [Tandet]

But imagine a China disintegrating - on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much
less outright military invasion - because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That would knock Asia
into chaos. A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which
don't want them and can't handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of World War II Revisited and
look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia - once occupied by Japan - into nervous
breakdowns.

Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia-
style. That's why wise policy encourages Chinese stability, security and economic growth - the very direction the White House
now seems to prefer.

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China Impact Uniqueness


China food prices stabilizing now because of good harvest

CCTV, 7-16-08, “bumper harvest to stabilize food prices,” http://www.cctv.com/english/20080716/104603.shtml, KAPUSTINA


China has been blessed with another summer grain harvest, one that's 2.5 trillion kilograms larger than last year's at
more than 120 trillion kilograms. This is the first time China has enjoyed five bumper harvests in a row since 1949, when the
People's Republic of China was founded. Analysts say this will help stabilize the food prices and inflation as a whole.

Another bumper harvest for grain farmers. They're happy, because the harvest will bring in more money since the price of
grain is about the same or a little higher than last year.
Farmers say they're willing to grow grain on more land and plan to invest in irrigation systems to grow in a more
economical and environmentally-friendly way.

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Economy Impact Module


Increased food prices jack interest rates and collapse the economy
Asia Times, 6-11-08, “food summit overlooks price-surge ingredient,”
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JF11Dj04.html, KAPUSTINA

The cost, in the form of accelerating energy and food prices, will be borne by ordinary citizens throughout the world. Had the
Fed not succumbed to political pressures and followed prudent monetary policies, oil and food prices would have remained relatively
stable. By ignoring the contributions of monetary policy to the food crisis at the summit, and with the monetary brake removed, oil
and food prices will continue to race to dangerously higher and higher levels, with attendant recessionary effects and aggravation of
malnutrition on the global level.

Money matters - a lot


Economist and French presidential advisor Jacques Rueff, in his book the Age of Inflation (1964), argued that money matters to
the point that it can threaten political stability and even civilization. He noted that exceptionally expansionary monetary policy in
the US and United Kingdom, through very low interest rates, brought a powerful economic boom in 1927-1929 and ended in a credit
crisis and the Great Depression. He showed that a small village could be pushed into famine by creating purchasing power
through credit that is not matched by an equivalent supply. Within a few years, the small village will have exhausted its savings
capacity and would collapse into starvation.

The same image, he contended, applies to the world economy. The result of economic mismanagement, budgetary deficits,
war spending and loose monetary policies is inflation, which is the single-worst economic disaster that can afflict a nation
or the world economy. Rueff forcefully argued that inflation encourages a quandary and penalizes savings and investment. He
emphasized that monetary equilibrium can be maintained only when purchasing power is equal to the value of wealth and
no excess liquidities develop in the economy. Excess liquidities will translate immediately into rising prices. His main prophecy
was that the world economy would be doomed to succumb into inflationary disorders as long as sound monetary policies were not
established.

Rueff emphasized the role of the price mechanism in achieving economic efficiency. The setting of interest rates by central
banks is a form of price control and in turn causes serious distortions in the economy. Interest rate control, while not feasible under
the gold standard, has been criticized by a number of notable economists, including Milton Friedman. Fixing interest rates can
force the real market interest rate below the natural interest rate, creating an unlimited demand for loans and igniting a cumulative
inflationary process.

By forcing nominal interest rates to low levels and real interest rates to a negative range in a bid to create a new speculative housing
boom (echoing the style of former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan), the Ben Bernanke Fed is distorting the price mechanism and
preventing recession from running its natural course. Given low yields on bonds, and fearing a collapse in the price of bonds, investors
have become attracted towards commodity and currency speculation.

Moreover, because of low interest rates, the cost of speculating and holding positions in the futures markets has become low while the
yields are high. As interest-rate control translates into accelerating oil and food prices, the real economy will be continuously
depressed. Subsequently, the US unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in May 2008, and under a combination of the accelerator and
multiplier effects, the economy will go deeper into recession in the coming months. While Bernanke's theory of restoring a housing
boom in the midst of millions of home foreclosures is a novelty worthy of a Nobel Prize, so far aggressive money expansion has been
followed by further collapse of housing prices. Eventually, the turning point in housing prices will be reached when economic
desolation spreads and hyperinflation prevails.

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Economy Impact Module


Global economic collapse leads to nuke war
T. E. Bearden, LTC, U.S. Army (Retired), CEO, CTEC Inc., Director, Association of Distinguished American Scientists (ADAS),
Fellow Emeritus, Alpha Foundation's Institute for Advanced Study (AIAS)June 24, 2000 (http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-
Bearden.htm)

As the collapse of the Western economies nears, one may expect catastrophic stress on the 160 developing nations as the developed
nations are forced to dramatically curtail orders. International Strategic Threat Aspects History bears out that desperate nations take
desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of
their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are
almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea {[7]} launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and
South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China — whose long-range
nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States — attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties
involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies
have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential
adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept
is this side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at
all is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as
possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that
will be unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself {[8]}. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy
civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades

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GMO Impact Module


High food prices increase support for GMOs
International Herald Tribune, 7-8-08, “high food prices may cut opposition to genetically modified food,
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/08/business/gmo.php, KAPUSTINA

ZURICH - Like many stores in Europe, the Coop chain of supermarkets in Switzerland does not specify whether goods are
genetically modified - because none are. But a wave of food-price inflation may help wash away popular opposition to so-
called Frankenstein foods.http://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/0708_05_1.jpg
“I think there’s a lot of resistance in Switzerland,” said a shopper, Beatrice Hochuli, as she picked out a salad for dinner at a
bustling supermarket outside the main Zurich station. “Most people in Switzerland are quite against it.”
Consumers, even those from relatively wealthy parts of the world, are rarely first in line to adopt new technologies. Although
food prices are up more than 50 percent since May 2006, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price
Index, Europeans remain wary of foods derived from tinkering with the genetic makeup of plants.
But policy makers and food companies are pressing the genetic modification topic in a bid to temper aversion to biotech
crops like pesticide-resistant rapeseed for oils and “Roundup-ready” soybeans, which tolerate dousing of the Roundup herbicide.
These are crops already common in the United States and other major food exporters like Argentina and Brazil.
The European Commission has said that it believes biotech crops can alleviate the current crisis in food supply, although it added in June that expediency
should not overrule strict scientific scrutiny of the use of the technology involved.
The chairman of Nestlé, the world’s biggest food group, has said it is impossible to feed the world without genetically modified organisms.
Meanwhile, the British government’s former chief scientific adviser, David King, has said over the past week that genetically modified crops hold the key to
solving the world’s food crisis. He called in a Financial Times interview for a “third green revolution,” in reference to two waves of innovation that helped
increase crop yields sharply in Asia over the past 50 years.
Climate change and increasing concern about fresh water supplies are helping to fuel interest in new seed varieties likely to be more resistant to drought and
able to produce reasonable yields with significantly less water. GM technology still has many opponents, who fear that genetically
modified crops can create health problems for animals and humans, wreak havoc on the environment, and give far-reaching
control over the world’s food to a few corporate masters.
Yet a European Commission-sponsored opinion poll last month showed slight change in awareness and acceptance of
the technology.
“For me it is just a matter of time before we get our head around GM,” said Jonathan Banks at the market information company
AC Nielsen. “The way people will learn to live with GM is to say ‘we do it product by product and make sure everything is
OK,”‘ Banks said. “At the moment we have a knee-jerk reaction which thinks of Frankenstein foods.”
The European Union has not approved any genetically modified crops for a decade, and the Union’s 27 member countries
often clash on the issue. Outside the EU, Switzerland has a moratorium on growing GM crops, though that authorities have
granted permission for three GM crop trials between 2008 and 2010 for research.
The market represents a substantial opportunity for biotechnology companies: the European seeds market is worth $7.9 billion,
out of a global total of $32.7 billion, according to data from Cropnosis, a consultancy. The global genetically modified seeds
market was worth $6.9 billion in 2007 and is set to grow further.
Agrochemical companies are riding a wave of high food prices and soaring demand for farm goods, and Monsanto,
DuPont and Syngenta have all raised 2008 earnings forecasts. Although high prices are a boon for farm suppliers, much of the
cost has been passed on to consumers, sparking protests in many countries including Argentina, Indonesia and Mexico.
Others also see opportunity: in June, the chocolate maker Mars, the computer giant IBM and the U.S. Department of
Agriculture said they would map the DNA of the cocoa tree to try to broaden the crop’s $5 billion market.
In a Eurobarometer opinion poll in March, the number of European respondents saying they lacked information on genetically
modified food fell to 26 percent, compared with 40 percent in the previous survey, which took place in 2005. But 58 percent
were apprehensive about the use of such crop technology and just 21 percent were in favor, down from 26 percent in a 2006
Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology.
“People do change attitudes, just gradually, because they become used to technologies,” said Jonathan Ramsay, spokesman
for Monsanto, the world’s biggest seed company. “Consumers are looking at prices, consumers hear the

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stories about food production, growing population in the world, and I think people do understand that agriculture needs to
be efficient.”

GMOs kill honeybees, which disrupts the ecosystem and results in extinction
Hutaff 07 (Matt Hutaff, "Give Bees a Chance," The Simon, May 1, , pg.
http://www.thesimon.com/magazine/articles/canon_fodder/01375_give_bees_chance.html), KAPUSTINA

Rumor has it Albert Einstein once declared humanity could only outlive the bee by about four years. His reasoning was
simple: "no more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man." Nothing like entomological
doomsday scenarios from a classical physicist, right? Nonetheless, it looks like we're poised to find out if the godfather of
relativity is right. Bees are disappearing at an alarming rate, particularly in the United States and Germany. And while it's normal
for hive populations to fall during colder winter months, the recent exodus is puzzling beekeepers and researchers around the
world. Are we witnessing the death throes of the human race firsthand? Will the bee go the way of the dodo? Not likely, but
I'll tell you one thing – whatever's driving the collapse of the bee population, it's man-made. "During the last three months of 2006,
we began to receive reports from commercial beekeepers of an alarming number of honey bee colonies dying in the eastern
United States," says Maryann Frazier, an apiarist with Penn State University. "Since the beginning of the year, beekeepers from all
over the country have been reporting unprecedented losses," including one gentleman who's lost 800 of his 2,000 colonies in less
than four months. Those losses are atypical. The usual causes of death, aside from climate, are varroa mites, hive beetles, and wax
moths, which infest hives weakened by sickness and malnutrition. Annual casualties tend to hover in the 20th percentile, and
beekeepers work with entomologists to protect their investments via antibiotics, miticides, and advanced pest management. Not so
today. The current blight has spread across the country rapidly, leaving abandoned hives full of uneaten food and unhatched larvae.
Natural predators brave enough to enter behave erratically, "acting in a way you normally don' t expect them to act," says
beekeeper Julianne Wooten. And whereas naturally abandoned hives are infested by other insects within a short period of time,
hives affected by what is tentatively labeled colony collapse disorder (CCD) are avoided. California and Texas have been hit
particularly hard by the sudden disappearance of bees, but dozens of other states are reporting major losses as well. And when you
consider bees are big business as well as a critical part of the food chain, that vanishing act is no laughing matter. Consider: bees
are essential for pollinating over 90 varieties of vegetables and fruits, including apples, avocados, blueberries, and cherries;
pollination increases the yield and quality of crops by approximately $15 billion annually; and California's almond industry alone
contributes $2 billion to the local economy, and depends on 1.4 million bees, which are brought in from all over the United States.
Bees stimulate the food supply as well as the economy. So what's the cause of colony collapse? Suspicions are pointed in several
different directions, including cell phone transmissions and agricultural pesticides, some of which are known to be poisonous to
bees. But if these two factors are responsible, why are the deaths not a global phenomenon? The bee collapse began in isolated
pockets before progressing rapidly around the nation. If cell phones are to blame, shouldn't the effect have been simultaneous, and
witnessed years ago? And if pesticides are strictly to blame, shouldn't beekeepers near major farm systems be able to track those
pollutants and narrow the field of possible suspects? Perhaps they have – and the culprit is bigger than we imagine. Several
scientists have come forward with the startling claim that genetically modified food – you know, that blessing from above
that would solve famine and put food in the belly of every undernourished, Third World child – is destroying bees. How could
something so wondrous as pest-resistant corn kill millions upon millions of bees? Simple – by producing so much natural
pesticide that bees are either driven mad or away. Most genetically- modified seeds have a transplanted segment of DNA that
creates a well-known bacterium, bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), in its cells. Normally Bt is not a problem – it's a naturally-occurring
pesticide that's been used as a spray for years by farmers looking to control crop damage from butterflies. And it's effective at
helping beekeepers keep bees alive, too – Bt is sprayed under hive lids to keep those pesky wax moths from attacking. But
"instead of the bacterial solution being sprayed on the plant, where it is eaten by the target insect, the genes that contain the
insecticidal traits are incorporated into the genome of the farm crop," writes biologist and beekeeper John McDonald. "As
the transformed plant grows, these Bt genes are replicated along with the plant genes so that each cell contains its own poison
pill that kills the target insect. "Canadian beekeepers have detected the disappearance of the wax moth in untreated hives,

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apparently a result of worker bees foraging in fields of transgenic canola plants. [And] the planting of transgenic corn and
soybean has increased exponentially, according to statistics from farm states. Tens of millions of acres of transgenic crops are allowing
Bt genes to move off crop fields." McDonald's analysis stands up under scrutiny. A former agronomist has commented that the one
trial of GM crops in the Netherlands quickly led to colony collapse within 100 kilometers of the fields, and it's reasonable to
hypothesize nature's pollinators would bear an averse reaction to plants with poison coursing through every stem. "The amount of Bt
in these plants is enough to trigger allergies in some people, and irritate the skin and eyes of farmers who handle the crops," writes
Patrick Wiebe. "In India, when sheep were used to clear a field of leftover Bt cotton, several sheep died after eating it." If it can kill a
sheep, it can certainly kill a bee. What can be done? Precious little if gene-modified plants are the genesis of colony collapse. "There
is no way to keep genetically modified genes from escaping into the wild," says Mike Rivero. "Wild varieties of corn in Mexico have
been found to contain artificial genes carried by the wind and bees. Indeed it is probable that the gene that makes the plant cells
manufacture a pesticide has already escaped, which means this problem will only spread. "This is far more dangerous than a toxic
spill, which confines itself to the original spill and the downwind/downstream plumes. A mistake in a gene, once allowed into
the wild, can spread across the entire planet." Genetically-modified food is produced by companies such as Monsanto (how many
of its scientists do you think drive a hybrid?). Despite a number of tests, the food created by these gene-spliced crops are considered a
failure. It consistently makes animals ill, increases liver toxicity, and damages kidneys. What's the incentive to grow this food? What's
the incentive to eat it? In our dash to trademark the very building blocks of our food supply, companies experimenting with
"upgrading" crops may have irreparably damaged one of nature's most important contributors. Instead of approaching famine from
a balanced perspective, corporations have patented the right to subsist. If Einstein's lesser-known theory is right, they have
unwittingly become Shiva, the destroyer of worlds

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GMOs are highly toxic to bees and are slowly killing off the population
Cummins Professor of Genetics at the University of Western Ontario 07 (Prof. Joe Cummins, "Requiem for the Honeybee:
Neoniccotinoid insecticides used in seed dressing may be responsible for the collapse of honeybee colonies," Organic
Consumers Association, 24 April 2007, pg. http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_4972.cfm) KAPUSTINA

There has been a great deal of concern over the decline of the honeybee across the US,
Europe and Australia [1] (The Mystery of Disappearing Honeybees, this series). The United States
National Research Council (USNRC) Committee of the Status of Pollinators in North America report [2]
focused on the impact of parasites, fungi, bacteria and viruses, but did not pay much attention on the impact
of pesticides and genetically modified (GM) crops, which may have lethal or sub-lethal effects on the
bee's behaviour or resistance to infection. There have been strong responses to the report. Any suggestion that GM crops
and pesticides may be causing the decline of honeybees is met with heated denial from the proponents. Certainly, honeybees
are declining both in areas where GM crops are widely grown, and in other areas where GM crops are released in small test
plots. Is there a common thread that links both areas? Yes there is, the universal use of systemic pesticide seed dressing
in GM crops and conventional crops; in particular, the widespread application of a relatively new class of systemic
insecticides - the neonicotinoids - that are highly toxic to insects including bees at very low concentrations. Systemic
pesticide seed dressings protect the newly sprouted seed at a vulnerable time in the plant's development. Seed dressings include
systemic insecticides and fungicides, which often act synergistically in controlling early seedling pests. The neonicotinoid
insecticides include imidacloprid, thiamethoxam, clothianidin, and several others. Imidacloprid is used extensively in seed
dressing for field and horticultural crops, and particularly for maize, sunflower and rapeseed (canola). Imidacloprid was
detected in soils, plant tissues and pollen using HPLC coupled to a mass spectrometer. The levels of
the insecticide found in pollen suggested probable delirious effects on honeybees [3]. For several years since 2000, French
and Italian beekeepers have been noticing that imidacloprid is lethal to bees, and the insecticide is suspected to be causing the
decline of hive populations by affecting the bee's orientation and ability to return to the hive.

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Higher food prices bring Chinese out of poverty
South China Morning Post, 4-21-08, “Food Price Surge a Blessing, not a Curse,” Lexis [Tandet]

But despite the widespread air of panic, not everyone agrees that higher food prices are a bad thing, at least for China.
According to Stanford University agricultural economist Scot Rozelle and his collaborator Huang Jikun of the Centre for
Chinese Agricultural Policy, rising food prices represent nothing less than "an opportunity for China to eliminate rural
poverty completely".
Dr Rozelle has no doubt at all why Chinese food prices are rising so steeply. He blames the US government's misguided
subsidies for biofuels.
With the price of oil at a record high of $117US a barrel, as much as 40 per cent of the US corn crop is now being used to
produce ethanol, says Dr Rozelle, crowding out food and animal feed cultivation.
As a result, prices are going up. "What happens to the oil price happens to food prices," he says (see the first chart below).
And what happens to international food prices happens in China. Dr Rozelle has little patience with the often cited
argument that because China only imports 1 per cent to 2 per cent of its food, domestic prices are not affected by international
fluctuations.
He points out that although the state interferes in the pricing of some staples such as wheat and rice, most food prices are set by
the market and there are few barriers to international trade. As a result, prices in China closely follow global food prices (see
the second chart below).
With energy prices expected to remain high indefinitely, that means China had better get used to more expensive food for the
foreseeable future. Unlike most observers, however, Dr Rozelle and Dr Huang believe higher food prices have positive
implications - provided Beijing can resist the temptation to tinker with the market.
Although higher food prices are not popular with city-dwellers, with wages rising at close to a 20 per cent annual rate, few
urban workers have been left substantially worse off by the recent increases, says Dr Rozelle.
In contrast, the structural shift to more expensive food driven by rising energy prices will encourage investment in the
agricultural sector and significantly raise rural incomes.

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Poverty is keeping China from challenging US hegemony right now – when
poverty is eliminated China will rise
The Daily, newspaper of Washington University, 2-6-08, “Hegemony decline: is China next?”
http://thedaily.washington.edu/2008/2/6/hegemonic-decline/, [Tandet]

Thus, the Chinese “threat” hovers over American politics and minds as more than just a subtle afterthought. But is China
really capable of hegemonic victory?

The short answer is no. China is plagued with problems, so many, in fact, that it’s highly unlikely to ever surpass the United
States — or even come close. Once its growth plateaus, the thorns in its side will become more evident. China is beleaguered
with high levels of corruption, poverty, HIV infection and extreme pollution.

Its monumental economic growth and industrialization have come at a heavy price in the form of environmental pollution. In
some parts of the country, there is no more potable water, and in other parts it’s predicted that there will be no water sources
within 20 years (if growth continues at this rate). Its massive population only fuels the problem, as natural resources are
running low and overpopulation is more conducive to the spread of disease. Without resources, growth is unsustainable and
dependency on other countries is inevitable.

Furthermore, World Bank findings confirmed that “China’s economy and GDP per capita are 40 percent smaller than
earlier analysis had asserted, and that Chinese poverty levels involve 300 million people under the World Bank’s dollar-a-
day standard rather than 100 million as previously thought,” as noted in the Carnegie Endowment Report.

Though one should be wary of statistics and perhaps of the World Bank’s findings, it goes to show that there is a disparity
between the perception of China’s success and the reality. The other disparity is economic. China has one of the largest
economic disparities between urban areas and rural areas in the world. China also faces a waning communist system,
which has been outdated and corrupt for years. Its bureaucracy is so large that little can be done in terms of reform.

Loss of hegemony leads to nuclear war


Zalmay Khalilzad, Senior assisnant at RAND Institute and former U.S. ambassador Spring, 1995, The Washington Quarterly,
Rethinking Grand Strategy, Losing the Moment? The United States and the World After the Cold War, l/n

Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a
return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a
vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have
tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values --
democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively
with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-
level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United
States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear
exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of
power system.

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High food prices increase prostitution – only way for women to afford food
IRIN News, part of the UN Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs, 7-16-08, “AFGHANISTAN: Food prices fuelling sex
work in north?,” http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79278[Tandet]

High food prices, drought, unemployment and lack of socio-economic opportunities are pushing some women and young
girls in northern Afghanistan into commercial sex work, women’s rights activists and several affected women told IRIN. “I
have no way of feeding my children other than by doing this disgusting job,” said 27-year-old Nasima (not her real name), a
commercial sex worker in Balkh Province.
Clad in a blue `burqa’, Najiba, a sex worker in Mazar-i-Sharrif, the provincial capital of Balkh Province, said she had been
pushed into sex work after food prices started rising dramatically in November 2007.
“I am a widow and I have to feed my five children. I am illiterate and no one will give me a job. I hate to be a prostitute but if I
stop doing this job my children will starve to death,” Najiba told IRIN.
Most women who turn to sex work are illiterate widows who lack professional skills to find alternative employment,
according to Malalai Usmani, head of a local women's rights non-governmental organisation (NGO) in Balkh. “Extreme
poverty and the obligation to feed their dependents have increased prostitution among women,” Usmani said.

Prostitution is the main cause of HIV spread


John Bambenek, Jan. 2, 2007, Executive Director of the Tumaini Foundation, "The ACLU is Fighting for the Trafficking of
Women Worldwide," http://prostitution.procon.org/, KAPUSTINA

"[T]he advocacy for legalized prostitution and AIDS prevention are mutually exclusive. One cannot support the reduction of
AIDS infections and support legal prostitution at the same time. Prostitution remains one of the leading vectors for AIDS
infection. This is true in the case of both legal and illegal prostitution.
Prostitutes, because of their many partners, have a greatly increased risk of exposure to HIV. They are likewise able to
spread HIV to many other partners. While a promiscuous society can approach a similar infection rate, prostitution is a
leading avenue of spreading HIV. While on its face condoms seem like they could prevent the spread of AIDS, the trust
[sic] is that they don’t. HIV infection rates increase in countries that have condom distribution programs. Abstinence
programs, on the other hand, has been shown in Uganda to reduce AIDS infections. The simple truth is that when one only has
sex with one’s spouse, the risk of AIDS exposure approaches zero."

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AND, AIDS causes extinction
Michael Kibaara Muchiri, Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi, 3-6-2K, “Will Annan finally put out Africa’s fires?”

About 13 million of the 16 million people who have died of AIDS are in Africa, according to the UN. What barometer is used to
proclaim a holocaust if this number is not a sure measure? There is no doubt that AIDS is the most serious threat to humankind,
more serious than hurricanes, earthquakes, economic crises, capital crashes or floods. It has no cure yet. We are watching a
whole continent degenerate into ghostly skeletons that finally succumb to a most excruciating, dehumanizing death. Gore said that
his new initiative, if approved by the U.S. Congress, would bring U.S. contributions to fighting AIDS and other infectious diseases to
$ 325 million. Does this mean that the UN Security Council and the U.S. in particular have at last decided to remember Africa?
Suddenly, AIDS was seen as threat to world peace, and Gore would ask the congress to set up millions of dollars on this case. The
hope is that Gore does not intend to make political capital out of this by painting the usually disagreeable Republican-controlled
Congress as the bad guy and hope the buck stops on the whole of current and future U.S. governments' conscience. Maybe there is
nothing left to salvage in Africa after all and this talk is about the African-American vote in November's U.S. presidential vote.
Although the UN and the Security Council cannot solve all African problems, the AIDS challenge is a fundamental one in that it
threatens to wipe out [humanity] man. The challenge is not one of a single continent alone because Africa cannot be quarantined. The
trouble is that AIDS has no cure -- and thus even the West has stakes in the AIDS challenge. Once sub-Saharan Africa is wiped out, it
shall not be long before another continent is on the brink of extinction. Sure as death, Africa's time has run out, signaling the
beginning of the end of the black race and maybe the human race. Gender paraphrased

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Price hikes exacerbate poverty in poor countries
Christopher B. Barrett, professor of Applied Economics and Management and International Professor of Agriculture, and Paul A.
Dorosh, analyst at International Bank for Reconstruction & Development, August ’96, “Farmers' welfare and changing food prices:
Nonparametric evidence from rice in Madagascar,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=1&hid=14&sid=3199103d-e186-4bb3-afda-
3287af2d8e1a%40sessionmgr3&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&AN=9611122680 [Tandet]

Increased real food prices, an important component of policy reforms in many developing countries, have significant
impacts on farmers' welfare. Though real food price increases raise gross incomes of the many farmers who make gross
commodity sales, small farm households that are net purchasers of food may suffer substantial instantaneous declines in
welfare. The food price dilemma (Timmer, Falcon, and Pearson), reflected in the choice between high food prices to spur
production and employment versus low food prices to stimulate consumption by the poor, thus has an acute intrarural
dimension, in addition to the more obvious urban/ rural conflict.
In Madagascar, many farmers do not participate in product markets as either sellers or buyers, and, for many others, net
sales or marketable surplus is fairly small. Nonetheless, the roughly one-third of rice farmers who fall below the poverty
line have substantial net purchases of rice, suggesting important negative first-order effects of increases in rice prices on
household welfare. More variable rice prices induced by economic reforms likely imposed additional instantaneous
welfare losses by threatening household food security and destabilizing incomes. These results contrast with those obtained
in methodologically similar studies of Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire which found that changes in food prices had minimal impacts
on the rural poor. Madagascar differs because the major food crop, rice, accounts for a much larger share of income and
food expenditures than in these wealthier and more agriculturally diverse economies.

Poverty is the deadliest form of structural violence – it’s worse than nuclear
war and is the root cause of all other violence
James Gilligan, professor of Psychiatry at the Harvard Medical School, Director of the Center for the Study of Violence, and a
member of the Academic Advisory Council of the National Campaign Against Youth Violence, ‘96, Violence: Our Deadly Epidemic
and its Causes, p. 196 [Tandet]

The finding that structural violence causes far more deaths than behavioral violence does is not limited to this country. Kohler and
Alcock attempted to arrive at the number of excess deaths caused by socioeconomic inequities on a worldwide basis. Sweden was
their model of the nation that had come closes to eliminating structural violence. It had the least inequity in income and living
standards, and the lowest discrepancies in death rates and life expectancy; and the highest overall life expectancy in the world. When
they compared the life expectancies of those living in the other socioeconomic systems against Sweden, they found that 18 million
deaths a year could be attributed to the “structural violence” to which the citizens of all the other nations were being subjected.
During the past decade, the discrepancies between the rich and poor nations have increased dramatically and alarmingly. The 14 to 18
million deaths a year caused by structural violence compare with about 100,000 deaths per year from armed conflict.
Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence,
such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths, including those by genocide—or about eight million per
year, 1939-1945), the Indonesian massacre of 1965-66 (perhaps 575,000) deaths), the Vietnam war (possibly two million, 1954-1973),
and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. (232 million), it was clear that even war cannot begin to
compare with structural violence, which continues year after year. In other words, every fifteen years, on the average, as many
people die because of relative poverty as would be killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. This is, in
effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide, perpetrated on the weak
and poor every year of every decade, throughout the world. Structural violence is also the main cause of behavioral violence
on a socially and epidemiologically significant scale (from homicide and suicide to war and genocide). The question as to which of the
two forms of violence—structural or behavioral—is more important, dangerous, or lethal is moot, for they are inextricably related to
each other, as cause to effect.

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High Food Prices Create Poverty
Lynne Carolan, Senior Sophister – Trinity College of Dublin, ’06, “Development NGOs and the Liberalisation of Agricultural
Policies”, Student Economic Review, 20, http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/SER/sql/download.php?key=36

To begin with it is necessary to establish the five different groupings of developing countries. They include the major
agricultural exporters, such as Brazil who belong to the Cairns group; large low-income countries close to self-sufficiency such
as India; large and medium-sized net food-importing developing countries, such as Kenya; the small island states that are also
net food-importers, including Jamaica; and the least-developed countries who additionally are net food-importers, including
Sub-Saharan African countries. It is important to recognise that food exporters and importers are affected differently by
food trade liberalisation and therefore are expected to pursue different agendas in the world trade negotiations (Matthews,
2001). There is little disagreement “that overall the agricultural policies of developed countries’ depress world market prices as
they stimulate farm production, reduce consumption, and hence result in larger supply and lower demand on world markets”
(Tangermann, 2005:3). Many NGO’s view this as sufficient grounds for the liberalisation of agricultural policies. However, the
manner in which the agricultural policies of developed countries affects the economic welfare of developing countries depends
on whether they are net importers or net exporters of agricultural products. A common misconception is that developing
countries are net exporters of agricultural products, and “therefore protection and subsidies by developed countries limit
access of the LDCs thereby impacting adversely on the quantity and value of their exports” (Panagariya, 2004:11). However,
studies by Valdes and McCalla have found that three fifths of all developing countries are net agricultural importers and
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) projections suggest that this movement towards increasing net imports of
agricultural goods is expected to continue into the future. In fact, the FAO estimates that by 2030, developing countries will
have a net food trade deficit in excess of USD50 billion (Tangermann, 2005). Middle-income developing countries (such as
members of the Cairns group) that are net exporters would gain from the removal of protection and subsidies by developed
countries, through increased market access and an increase in world prices. Conversely, as net importers LDCs have access
to current depressed prices and if the subsidies and protection were to be eliminated the world prices would rise and the
losses to LDCs could be considerable. In addition, under the Everything But Arms initiative of the EU, LDCs already have
quota and duty free access to the EU market (with the exception of bananas, rice and sugar), meaning that they can sell their
exports at the internal EU price that is artificially high. Generally, the EU domestic price is far more profitable than the price
that LDCs are likely to obtain following liberalisation of agricultural policies by developed countries (Panagariya, 2005). To
make best use of the gains from trade reform, it is essential that the domestic economies of developing countries be well run. If
factor mobilities are inflexible only a fraction of the potential gains from trade will be realised (Anderson, 2004). Many food-
importing countries do not have the capacity to significantly increase their production should developed countries
eliminate unfair tariffs and subsidies. The consequence is that trade liberalisation will simply increase their food import
bill (Bouet et al, 2004).

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High food prices lead to a humanitarian crisis that undermines the war on
terror
Amy Zalman, 5-14-08, Ph.D from NYU in Middle-Eastern Studies, consultant on counter-terrorism for U.S. Central Command, “in
Somalia, u.s. war against terrorism backfires,” http://terrorism.about.com/od/globalwaronterror/a/Somalia.htm, KAPUSTINA

In the meantime, tens of thousands of Somalis protested rising food prices. According to ReliefWeb:
Angry residents stoned shops and cars and set tyres ablaze on 5 - 6 May in protest of shopkeepers' refusal to accept Somali
shilling banknotes. At least three people have been confirmed killed and several others injured after government forces opened
fire to disperse the demonstrators.
Two Crises Are Linked
The two crises not only intensify each other, they are directly linked. Anti-government militias, of which Al Shebab is only
one, threaten and even kill humanitarian workers attempting to deliver aid. They also threaten their fellow Somalis in a
moment of crisis. Following the food riots, Islamist militants "urged Mogadishu traders to accept Somali shillings over
US dollars to try to reduce inflation in the country, warning they would punish defaulters," according to Agence
France-Presse. The humanitarian crisis is helping to create exactly the sort of instability that can be exploited by militias
seeking greater control over the general population.
This outcome is certainly the exactly opposite of the intended effect of U.S. efforts to slow the spread of Al Shebab by
killing them. But it is not a mystery. The current U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa (and in the "war on terror" more broadly)
is exclusively focused on groups or actors that can be said to be linked to Al Qaeda--and their removal. All other issues--such
as humanitarian issues--are recognized, but secondary. The current situation in Somalia is a direct result of this focus,
which has resulted in the U.S. using a military strategy to contain the Union of Islamic Courts / Al Shebab at all costs.
It would be more fruitful, from a policy perspective, to approach Somalia and its many actors holistically. The humanitarian
crisis and the political crisis are one and the same, and multiple actors have an impact on it including Ethiopian troops allied
with the transitional government and militias and warlords beyond al Shebab.

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Terrorism leads to extinction
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, political analyst for the ‘Al-Ahram’ newspaper, Fall ’04, “Extinction!”,
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm

A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and this is far from
certain -- the weapons used are less harmful than those used then, Japan, at the time, with no knowledge of nuclear
technology, had no choice but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret for nobody.

So far, except for the two bombs dropped on Japan, nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Now we are at a
stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a point where
anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify
anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it turned out, these allegations, as well as the
allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded.

What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the
negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves,
police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would
rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different
type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive.

But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will
emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without
winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

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Terrorism Impact Ext


High food prices spawn terrorism
David Zetland, 1-22-08, economist with an M.S. in Agricultural & Resource Economics, “ethanol and terrorism,”
http://aguanomics.com/2008/01/ethanol-and-terrorism.html, KAPUSTINA

A startling change is unfolding in the world’s food markets. Soaring fuel prices have altered the equation for growing food
and transporting it across the globe. Huge demand for biofuels has created tension between using land to produce fuel
and using it for food.

A growing middle class in the developing world is demanding more protein, from pork and hamburgers to chicken and
ice cream. And all this is happening even as global climate change may be starting to make it harder to grow food in some of
the places best equipped to do so, like Australia.

In the last few years, world demand for crops and meat has been rising sharply. It remains an open question how and
when the supply will catch up. For the foreseeable future, that probably means higher prices at the grocery store and fatter
paychecks for farmers of major crops like corn, wheat and soybeans.
Bottom Line: US policies (on ethanol, trade, etc.) to make farmers richER are driving up food costs for the poor in developing
countries. The poor get frustrated and turn on their lousy governments (often lousy because they have friends like the US
who give aid and can ignore their people). Frustration means terrorism, and thus we can say that ethanol programs promote
terrorism! End the stupidity!

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War Impact Module


Increase in food prices disrupts the global economy and results in war

AFP, 4-12-08, “IMF warns rising food prices raising risk of war,” http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hL9XafrtiaulCYd-
cHwk4eonPFGw, KAPUSTINA

"Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving ... (leading) to disruption of the economic environment," Strauss-
Kahn told a news conference at the close of the IMF spring meeting here.
Development gains made in the past five or 10 years could be "totally destroyed," he said, warning that social unrest
could even lead to war.
"As we know, learning from the past, those kind of questions sometimes end in war," he said. If the world wanted to
avoid "these terrible consequences," then rising prices had to be tackled.
Skyrocketing prices on rice, wheat, corn and other staple foods like milk particularly hurt developing nations, where the bulk
of income is spent on the bare necessities for survival.

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Biofuel Impact Ext – Poverty


Biofuel production trades off with food production, increasing poverty

Joachim von Braun, 6-12-08, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Testimony before the
United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/testimony/vonbraun20080612.asp,
KAPUSTINA

The rapid expansion of ethanol and biodiesel has increased dependency on natural vegetation and crops grown specifically for
energy. Biofuel production has also introduced new food-security risks and new challenges for the poor, particularly
when resource constraints have lead to trade-offs between food and biofuel production and rising food prices. For the
further development and use of biofuels, it is necessary to carefully assess the impact of different technologies, products
(ethanol, bio-diesel, bio-gas), and feed stocks (e.g. sugar cane, corn, oilseeds, palm oil, agricultural waste and biomass).
Energy and agriculture in a broader conceptual framework
A comprehensive policy framework will be fundamental to developing biofuels in such a way that they contribute to energy
security, climate change mitigation, and environmental sustainability, and at the same time they do not negatively affect food
prices and the food security of the poor. The three main domains upon which biofuels have an impact—namely the
political/social, the economic, and the environmental—interact when agriculture and energy become more closely linked
through the production of biofuels (Figure 1). This interaction will lead to changes in the dynamics of agriculture as well as
changes in the impact on households, businesses, and the private sector.
Participants in the biofuel discussion come from many sectors and include farmer representatives, the energy industry, global
environmental movements, large capital funds, and science and technology lobbies. The extent to which biofuels remain on the
agenda will depend on political pressures and security concerns. High levels of rent seeking as well as political lobbying are part of
the picture, and their impact can be seen in the current subsidy and trade policies adopted by some countries. The implemented
biofuel subsidies are regressive and anti-poor because low-income households lose much on the food consumption side if
food prices rise, and gain little on the energy side if energy prices decline.

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Biofuels Impact Ext – Starvation


Increased food prices from biofuels lead to global malnutrition and starvation

Joachim von Braun, 6-12-08, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Testimony before the
United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/testimony/vonbraun20080612.asp,
KAPUSTINA

Poor people are impacted by biofuels as consumers in food and energy markets, producers of agricultural commodities in
small businesses, and workers in labor markets. The increase in agricultural demand and the resulting increase in agricultural
prices will affect poor people in different ways. Some poor farmers could gain from this price increase. However, net buyers of
food, which represent the majority of poor people, would respond to high food prices with reduced consumption and
changed patterns of demand, leading to calorie and nutrition deficiencies.
Under the two IMPACT scenarios, the increase in crop prices resulting from expanded biofuel production is also
accompanied by a net decrease in availability and access to food. Calorie consumption is estimated to decrease across
regions under all scenarios compared to baseline levels (Figure 2). Food-calorie consumption will fall the most in Sub-Saharan
Africa, where calorie consumption is projected to decrease by more than 8 percent if biofuels expand drastically.

As a result of rising food prices, cuts will likely be made to food expenditures, exacerbating diet quality and micronutrient
malnutrition. A study of the effects in an East Asian setting suggests that a 50-percent increase in the price of food, holding
income constant, will lead to the decline of iron intake by 30 percent. As a result, the prevalence of micronutrient deficiency
among women and children will increase by 25 percent (Bouis 2008). Studies also show that current malnutrition of mothers and
children has long lasting effects (Lancet 2008) and will show in deteriorated health and income decades later.

Biofuel investments kill food production and revert the poor of developing
nations into malnutrition

IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2008, http://www.ifpri.org/themes/bioenergy/bioenergybro.pdf, KAPUSTINA


The effects of growing biofuel demand are interwoven with tightening grain markets, which reflect demographic shifts and
improved diets. In developing countries, as populations grow and incomes rise, diet preferences are shifting from staple crops to
higher-value products like meat and dairy. As a result, the demand for grain- and protein-based animal feed is soaring and
competing with food needs. These changes have led to increasing pressures on global agricultural markets and higher food
costs. Poor people in both rural and urban areas are disproportionately
vulnerable to these forces because they spend a large share of their incomes on food. Biofuels subsidies in developed
countries tend to drive up food prices, thus reducing consumption and nutritional
well-being for net buyers. The higher prices for commodities resulting from biofuel feedstock production can mean higher
incomes for some farmers in developing countries and better agricultural wages for laborers, although the question of
distribution among winners and losers remains. Another outcome for developing countries could
be increased pressure on fragile natural resources on which poor farmers depend, potentially further degrading land
and stressing limited water supplies.

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Ethanol Impact Ext – Biodiversity


Farmland will not increase enough to keep up with increased ethanol use - the
plan forces tradeoffs with land for fragile crops

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, May/June ’07, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs Magazine,
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html
[Tandet]

Proponents of corn-based ethanol argue that acreage and yields can be increased to satisfy the rising demand for
ethanol. But U.S. corn yields have been rising by a little less than two percent annually over the last ten years, and even a
doubling of those gains could not meet current demand. As more acres are planted with corn, land will have to be pulled
from other crops or environmentally fragile areas, such as those protected by the Department of Agriculture's
Conservation Reserve Program.

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Ethanol Impact Ext - Economy


Ethanol use crushes state economies- Texas proves

The Wall Street Journal, 4-25-08, “States’ Rights: Texas to Fight Feds’ Biofuels Mandate?,
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/04/25/states-rights-texas-to-fight-feds-biofuels-mandate/, KAPUSTINA

More fireworks between states and the Feds over U.S. energy policy. But for once, it’s not California rattling sabers. It’s the
heart of the oil–and cow–patch.

Texas could be the latest state to flex its muscles against Washington mandates, Dow Jones Newswires reports. Gov. Rick
Perry, concerned about high food prices, is considering asking for an exemption for Texas from federal biofuel
mandates that call for steadily increasing production over the next 16 years.
Skyrocketing food prices around the world, from more expensive tortillas in Mexico to rice hoarding in Asia, have redoubled
concerns about the wisdom of biofuels, already buffetted by doubts over their green credentials. The potential showdown
mirrors what is happening in Europe, where countries like the U.K. and Germany have questioned European biofuel mandates.
Of course, in Texas, the food-versus-fuel debate can turn into feed-versus-fuel. Dow Jones reports:
“Ultimately, food prices are reaching high levels, so we’re looking at this as an option for reducing that burden,” said Allison
Castle, a spokeswoman for Gov. Perry. Texas is the leading producer of beef, she said, so elevated prices of corn for cattle
feed place a burden on the state’s economy.

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Ethanol Impact Ext – Ocean Death Module


Increases in biofuel farmland stop current cycles of healthy crop rotation,
creating nitrogen runoff that kills ocean life

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, May/June ’07, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs Magazine,
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html
[Tandet]

Should corn and soybeans be used as fuel crops at all? Soybeans and especially corn are row crops that contribute to soil
erosion and water pollution and require large amounts of fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel to grow, harvest, and dry. They
are the major cause of nitrogen runoff -- the harmful leakage of nitrogen from fields when it rains -- of the type that has
created the so-called dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, an ocean area the size of New Jersey that has so little oxygen it can
barely support life. In the United States, corn and soybeans are typically planted in rotation, because soybeans add nitrogen to
the soil, which corn needs to grow. But as corn increasingly displaces soybeans as a main source of ethanol, it will be
cropped continuously, which will require major increases in nitrogen fertilizer and aggravate the nitrogen runoff
problem.

All life is dependent on the oceans – if it dies, we die

NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ’98, “Perspectives on Marine Environmental Quality Today,”
http://www.yoto98.noaa.gov/yoto/meeting/mar_env_316.html

The ocean plays a critical role in sustaining the life of this planet. Every activity, whether natural or anthropogenic, has far
reaching impacts on the world at large. For example, excessive emissions of greenhouse gases may contribute to an increase
the sea level, and cause potential flooding or an increase in storm frequency; this flooding can reduce wetland acreage and
increase sediment and nutrient flows into the Gulf of Mexico, causing adverse impacts on water quality and reducing habitat
for commercial fisheries. This in turn drives up the cost of fish at local markets nationwide.
The environment and the economic health of marine and coastal waters are linked at the individual, community, state,
regional, national and international levels. The interdependence of the economy and the environment are widely
recognized. The United States has moved beyond viewing health, safety, and pollution control as additional costs of doing
business to an understanding of broader stewardship, recognizing that economic and social prosperity would be useless if the
coastal and marine environments are compromised or destroyed in the process of development (President’s Council on
Sustainable Development, 1996).
Much about the ocean, its processes, and the interrelationship between land and sea is unknown. Many harvested marine
resources depend upon a healthy marine environment to exist. Continued research is needed so that sound management
decisions can be made when conflicts among users of ocean resources arise. Although much progress has been made over the
past 30 years to enhance marine environmental quality and ocean resources, much work remains. The challenge is to maintain
and continue to improve marine water quality as more people move to the coasts and the pressures of urbanization increase.
Through education, partnerships, technological advances, research, and personal responsibility, marine environmental quality
should continue to improve, sustaining resources for generations to come.
"It does not matter where on Earth you live, everyone is utterly dependent on the existence of that lovely, living
saltwater soup. There’s plenty of water in the universe without life, but nowhere is there life without water. The living
ocean drives planetary chemistry, governs climate and weather, and otherwise provides the cornerstone of the life-
support system for all creatures on our planet, from deep-sea starfish to desert sagebrush. That’s why the ocean matters. If
the sea is sick, we’ll feel it. If it dies, we die. Our future and the state of the oceans are one.”

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DA Turns Case – Land Use  Greenhouse Gases


Land use changes immediately double greenhouse gas levels

C. Ford Runge, Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and fellow at the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of
Public Affairs, and Benjamin Senauer, Ph.D. and Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota and former Co-
Director of The Food Industry Center, 5-28-08, Foreign Affairs, “How Ethanol Fuels the Food Crisis,”
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080528faupdate87376/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-ethanol-fuels-the-food-crisis.html
[Tandet]

In early 2008, two articles in Science showed that forests or grasslands converted for the production of biofuels will
immediately incur a "carbon debt," due to the release of carbon dioxide from biomass and soil. This long "payback" for
biofuels is disappointing in light of the urgency of global warming. The second Science study demonstrated that biofuel
production often displaces crops, moving them to new areas where further land-use conversions are required. In the
Corn Belt of the Midwest, biofuels helped to convert nearly 20 million acres from soybean production to corn production
in 2007, pushing soybean prices higher while encouraging extensive applications of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers
that run off into lakes and streams, enter the Mississippi River, and eventually reach the Gulf of Mexico where they have
created an oxygen-starved "dead zone." The authors found that such land-use changes nearly double greenhouse emissions
over 30 years, and increase greenhouse gases for 167 years.

Land changes produce 420 times more CO2 than the amount they would
reduce

David Tilman et al., McKnight Presidential Chair in Ecology (professor) at University of Minnesota, 2-7-08, “Land Clearing and
the Biofuel Carbon Debt,”
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;319/5867/1235?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=biof
uels+carbon+debt&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT [Tandet]

Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-
carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings
depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food crop–
based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a "biofuel carbon debt" by releasing 17 to 420
times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions that these biofuels would provide by displacing fossil
fuels. In contrast, biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands
planted with perennials incur little or no carbon debt and can offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages.

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Aff Answers
1. Spike in prices is short-term, ethanol net beneficial for agriculture – experts
agree

Domestic Fuel News, 3-9-07, “feed fight on the hill,” http://domesticfuel.com/2007/03/09/feed-fight-on-the-hill/, KAPUSTINA
The livestock and poultry producers also were united in their call for reducing or eliminating incentives for biofuels
production. “This means we are calling for sunsetting the existing blenders tax credit and the ethanol import tariff as
scheduled in 2010 and 2009 respectively,” said Ernie Morales, a cattle feeder and rancher from southwest Texas, who spoke for
the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
However, in separate press conferences Thursday, the chairmen of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees
disagreed.
Senate Ag Committee Chairman Tom Harkin of Iowa, always a strong advocate for livestock producers, said, “I
understand maybe where they’re coming from, but I think these things have a way of leveling out.” He believes the
anticipated increase in corn acreage this year will help bring prices down to more manageable levels.
House Ag Committee Chairman Collin Peterson of Minnesota pointed out that grain producers are finally getting a fair price
for their crop. “What people fail to recognize is that over the last number of years, corn prices have been substantially below
the cost of production and the livestock industry has benefited from this,” said Peterson.
Several of the livestock industry witnesses at the hearing admitted that the situation is likely short term and that much of
the current concern is due to the unprecedented rapid growth in ethanol production. As Iowa dairy producer Rob
Wonderlich, testifying on behalf of Dairy Farmers of America, told the committee, “This biofuels revolution occurred very quickly
and did not allow … the livestock industries to properly adapt, which has sent a shock across the industries in the form of
increased operating costs.”

2. Food prices now are the highest in history

Lester Brown, 7-14-08, Brown has authored or coauthored 50 books. In May 2001, he founded the Earth Policy Institute. 23
honorary degrees, a MacArthur Fellowship, the 1987 United Nations' Environment Prize, the 1989 World Wide Fund for Nature
Gold Medal, and the 1994 Blue Planet., “higher food prices are here to stay,”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/14/food.energyefficiency, KAPUSTINA

These days it is hard to pick up a newspaper without seeing an article on soaring food prices and their consequences. In recent
months, wheat, rice, corn and soybean prices have soared to historic highs, doubling or tripling those of two years ago.
The world is in the grip of the most pervasive food price inflation in history.
In seven of the last eight years, world grain consumption has exceeded production, forcing a drawdown in stocks. As a
result, world carryover stocks of grain have dropped to 54 days of consumption, the lowest on record.
In contrast to past spikes in grain prices, today's escalating prices are not the result of temporary weather-induced shortfalls.
They are trend driven.
On the demand side, the relentless growth of the world population is adding 70 million more consumers each year. One
need not be an agronomist to see that this trend eventually leads to trouble.

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3. Land use claims exaggerated- profiteering and corruption responsible for


food prices

Jeff Mahoney, 5-1-08, “is it just me or am I getting paranoid?,” columnist for the spectator,
http://www.thespec.com/opinions/columnists/171785, KAPUSTINA

The global warming deniers accuse environmentalists of lies and exaggerations. Then they themselves fan the myth of a
supposedly massive, wholesale conversion of foodlands to ethanol production. This is probably not happening, certainly
not at the levels the global warming deniers are claiming. What conversion there is plays only a small part, if any, in the
current scare over food prices and how they relate to oil prices.
Behind the smokescreen theory of repurposed foodlands, one will find the usual suspects -- global profiteering, stock
market jiggery, and corporate bookmakers taking their vigorish out of a cynically manipulated casino of supply and
demand.

4. Turn- high food prices key to sustaining agriculture

South China Morning Post,”stronger food prices boost rural communities,” 4-28-08, p. 10, lexis, KAPUSTINA
Likewise, unaccountable and power-hungry international institutions like the IMF now wish to set themselves up as the global
food price policeman, and it is using the spectre of war due to high food prices to justify its grab for power ("Soaring food prices
raise risk of war, warns IMF", April 14).

Having seen the great job it did in "saving" Southeast Asia from itself in the late 1990s, I hope that the countries of the region tell the
IMF to mind its own business.

Higher food prices are likely to keep poorer farmers on the land, within their existing communities where they have strong
family welfare and cultural links.

While urbanisation and industrialisation are inevitable trends, unrestrained urbanisation without a strong enough urban economy
to absorb rural labour is one of the greatest security threats that developing countries face.

Artificially rigging commodity prices at a low level destroys rural economies and thwarts rural entrepreneurs who are the
driving force of economic development in the countryside.

Faltering rural economies result in farmers walking off the land, mass internal and international migration, conflicts over
resources and explosions in urban slum populations. These outcomes are far more likely to lead to armed conflict than urban
housewives complaining about the price of pork chops.

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5. A. Rising food prices key to African economy

Business Day, 7-14-08, “Food crisis is a long-term opportunity for Africa,”


http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A801230

THE global food crisis presents Africa with great threats — and great opportunities. African countries have
traditionally had some of the worst-performing agricultural sectors. Despite many possessing natural advantages, 35 of 48
sub-Saharan African economies are net food importers.
While east Asian countries have tripled, and Latin American countries doubled, agricultural yields in the past four decades,
Africa has lagged well behind — African cereal yields are estimated by the Food and Agriculture Organisation to be 66%
below the global average.
The reasons for this are clear: war, instability, lack of clarity about land title, low investment in people and management
systems, and the absence of technology. Africa uses only 13% of the global average amount of fertiliser per hectare. Africa’s
irrigated farming area is estimated at 14% of the potential against 49% globally. It is also using only 43% of the arable
land with
rain-fed potential. Such low productivity
coupled with poor infrastructure and high transport costs poses a threat to Africa’s long-term development by making
the export of surpluses to the cities more difficult. Coupled with rising food prices, this could be a catalyst for political
tension, especially in urban areas.
Whereas the average African household spends more than half of its income on food, those in Europe are likely to spend a third
of that. One third of Africans, about 300-million people, are already malnourished. And as Kenyan Prime Minister Raila
Odinga has put it: “A hungry man is an angry man.”
The relationship between agriculture performance, development and trade is important. For almost half of sub-Saharan
countries, transport payments absorb more than 20% of foreign earnings from exports. For some landlocked nations, these
costs absorb more than half.
Particularly significant is the negative impact of poor transport infrastructure on rural development, making it difficult for
African farmers to specialise in high-value crops for export.
Rising fuel costs make this even more difficult, and not only in freighting food in, and high-value exports out. Heating charges
for greenhouses, production costs and the expense of refrigeration have all risen, too.
But many of the trade costs are caused by things comparatively easy to fix, including inefficient customs and clearance
procedures, themselves the product of an overbearing and inefficient bureaucracy, and uncompetitive policy environment.
While African governments expend enormous energy on negotiating fresh trade access, they spend comparatively little time
fixing the things directly within their power, such as customs opening hours. It is no good producing stuff if it is held up at
ports.
Agriculture is, so far, another story of unrealised African potential. Growth in this sector is not only a means to
improving overall social welfare among the
600-million people engaged in production, but is also a means to mitigate development risks. While estimates predict
Africa’s gross domestic product growth for the next three years to be more than 5% (compared to 3,4% globally), Africa
is likely to remain hostage to commodity performance, given its significant oil and mining dependence.
Africa’s food crisis is thus a short-term problem and a long-term opportunity. Much is known about how to create the
conditions for a “green revolution”.
Realising the opportunity will of course happen only in those countries that have
a comparative climatic advantage. But this also depends on getting a number of other things right, demanding good policy and sound management. Land
ownership needs to be clearly defined since private ownership enables the collateralisation of property. Production needs to be scaled up through the creation
of larger holdings and improved access to fertilisers, technology, machinery and markets. And agriculture production and marketing needs to be
commercialised — it has to be responsive to local and international markets and prices.
Overall, knowledge and management are central to seizing the opportunities. This hinges on political and institutional improvement and greater political
stability. If Africa cannot enable this revolution without external assistance, it should at least identify its capacity needs and partners to fill these gaps as a
matter of urgency. Commercial rather than donor support can provide a sustainable method sensitive to market trends, as Mozambique’s enviable experience
with tobacco extension and production in Tete province illustrates.

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In the short term, rising food prices are bad news for those whose main expense is food. But higher long-term prices could
be a catalyst for higher investment in this sector, financially, legally and in policy and management terms. The revival of
African agriculture offers a route to development for 180-million small farmers.

B. Africa's economy drives the global economy

China View 6-6-08 (Chinese newspaper, "Africa drives forward world economy: WEF participants",
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-06/06/content_8318186.htm)

The African economy is becoming robust and energetic and will complement with the world economy as it is turning out to
be one of the economic driving forces worldwide, said participants at the ongoing World Economic Forum on Africa
held here.

The world major economies are optimistic about African economic growth, which is offering the world huge investment
opportunities in the sectors of infrastructure, petroleum and mining, agriculture, power, telecommunications, tourism and
finance, said Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, chairman of the Dubai World company of the United Arab Emirates.

Sulayem expects that total investment in the continent's infrastructure facilities will hit 250 billion U.S. dollars in the
coming 10 years, as most African countries are putting construction of infrastructures on priority lists. This is a favor to the
world economy, he said.

He said that Africa will keep its growth momentum and will become not only driving force pushing forward the world
economy, but also energy center or "world factory" in the future.

C. Global economic collapse leads to nuke war


T. E. Bearden, LTC, U.S. Army (Retired), CEO, CTEC Inc., Director, Association of Distinguished American Scientists (ADAS),
Fellow Emeritus, Alpha Foundation's Institute for Advanced Study (AIAS)June 24, 2000 (http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-
Bearden.htm)

As the collapse of the Western economies nears, one may expect catastrophic stress on the 160 developing nations as the
developed nations are forced to dramatically curtail orders. International Strategic Threat Aspects History bears out that
desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased
the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now
possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea {[7]}
launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or
suppose a desperate China — whose long-range nuclear missiles (some) can reach the United States — attacks Taiwan. In
addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the
conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress
conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on
perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is this side of the MAD coin that is
almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launch immediate
full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies
showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs. Today, a great percent of the WMD arsenals that will be
unleashed, are already on site within the United States itself {[8]}. The resulting great Armageddon will destroy
civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades

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6. Decreasing food supply allows developing countries the chance to increase their own crop yields to fill
the gap
Juergen Zattler, Deputy Director General for Germany’s Multilateral and European Development Policy, 7-16-
08, Interview with the New Vision, “High Food Prices Good for Farmers,”
http://www.newvision.co.ug/D/8/220/639470
The German government is trying to implement specific programmes for most vulnerable people in countries that are worst hit by the
food crisis. This will include offering conditional cash transfers.

We are also committed to increasing official development assistance by 2010 by 0.35% of gross domestic product. The World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund are also ready to give additional financing in the form of budgetary support to increase the funds
available in these countries to cover the food bill.

The global food crisis is threatening to reverse the EU’s commitment to halve poverty and hunger by 2015. Why then is the EU and
the US offering farm aid?
I must say that at the moment there are no export subsidies from the EU and the US to support our farmers because of the current
global food prices. One has to be aware that the high food prices are not only negative, they are also positive because this represents a
huge chance for developing countries to increase agricultural production particularly for export to gain more.

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CCD, increasing global demand, the declining dollar, bad weather, and ethanol
production all contribute to higher prices
Tri-State Observer, 7-18-08, “Prices Will Keep Rising,”
http://www.tristateobserver.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=10275&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

Do you like carrots? How about broccoli, onions, pumpkins, squash, peaches, pears, apples, blueberries, avocados, walnuts, almonds
or cherries? These crops, among others, can't grow without honeybees.The number of bees has been dramatically declining over the
last few years. Starting in October 2006, Colony Collapse Disorder wiped out 30% to 90% of bee hives. The losses continued last year
through this year with over 30% of hives being destroyed in both 2007 and 2008.According to the USDA, while colony losses are not
unexpected during winter weather, the magnitude of loss suffered by some beekeepers was highly unusual. In 1995-96, Pennsylvania
beekeepers lost 53 percent of their colonies without a specific identifiable causeThe exact cause of Colony Collapse Disorder is not
known. Since roughly 75% of flowering plants rely on pollination to help them reproduce, bees are an important link in the chain that
produces much of the food that we eat. Without bees to pollinate crops, the crops can't bear fruit, causing crop yields to drop.World
Demand for FoodThere is a growing demand for food around the world with the emergence of a middle class in such places as China,
Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. With more disposable income, these people demand more and a greater variety of food.
These middle classes will likely continue to increase, placing more pressure on world food prices. A growing number of countries
have sharply curbed food exports in order to ensure an adequate supply of food at affordable prices for their country. It puts pressure
on world food availablity and prices including those foods being imported to the U.SThe Declining DollarThe dollar has fallen against
other world currencies over the past year. When the dollar goes down in value against other currencies, any dollar-denominated
commodity tends to go up in price.Part of the huge increase in oil prices can be attributed to the fall of the value of the dollar against
other currencies. In the same way, most major food commodities are traded in dollars, which makes foreign-produced food more
expensive.Bad WeatherRecent flooding in the Midwest and Corn Belt has prevented farmers from planting soybeans and damaged the
corn crop, which had recently been planted. Analysts have estimated that there may be a shortfall of 15% or more in grain produced
this year compared to last year due to the flooding."This year’s weather is very disconcerting considering our knowledge about the
effects of climate change on weather conditions and we hope that this does not become a trend towards more volatile weather in the
future," said Keith Dittrich, Chairman of the Board of the American Corn Growers Association.The bad weather hasn't been limited to
the U.S. Poor weather has reduced overall global food production from South America ,Canada, the European Union and Eastern
Europe over the last couple of years. A drought has resulted in a major Australian wheat decline.The Stock MarketSpeculation's role in
increased food prices is hotly debated, but it appears that investors have taken an interest in food prices and are playing a larger role in
the commodity markets.As food supplies tighten, there is a good chance that speculators will increase in the hope of making a quick
buck, further adding to the problem.EthanolWith the rise of oil prices, U.S. ethanol production has greatly increased. It's expected that
over 30% of the U.S. corn crop will go toward ethanol production this year.According to Benjamin Gisin of Touch the Soil magazine,
"Quietly, but unmistakably, farmland in America is becoming more precious as its scarcity is recognized. Recent USDA statistics
reveal farm real estate values jumped by 120 percent in the last 10 years. Out of this mix of farmland, the value of land for pasture has
jumped 137 percent."With such a large portion of the corn crop going to ethanol production, there will be increased competition for
the food in other uses, such as feed for cattle and dairy cows, manufactured foods like cereals and foods sweetened with corn
syrup.All indications are that food will get more scarce and expensive and you should be preparing. It's time to stock up your pantry.

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Asian starvation proves—high food prices are already hitting world markets
Martin Spring, On Target, 7-15-08, MoneyWeek, “The solution to the food crisis: market forces,”
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/50470/the-solution-to-the-food-crisis-market-forces.html

Food prices are at the centre of the global economic crisis. A billion Asians who spend at least 60% of their income on food now face
starvation. There have already been food riots in several dozen countries, and I fear there is worse to come. As I commented last
month, the credit squeeze is largely incomprehensible to ordinary folk – but they instantly feel the pain of soaring prices at food stores.
Governments blatantly manipulate official inflation figures by ignoring "temporary" factors such as the costs of food, energy, real
estate and taxes – all the ones that really matter. But consumers are not fooled, and everywhere now look ready to chuck ruling parties
out of power.

Ethanol production has already pushed every aspect of the agricultural sector
to record highs
Matt Woolsey, Forbes.com, 7-18-08, “America's Increasingly Unaffordable Cities,”
http://www.forbes.com/realestate/2008/07/18/inflation-unaffordable-cities-forbeslife-
cx_mw_0718realestate.html
Using an inflation study done for Forbes.com by Moody's Economy.com, we looked at the 40 largest metro areas in the U.S. to see
where prices were growing fastest. The numbers reflect those from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Moody's figures on price
change between January 2008 and June 2008. They track everything from the price of food, taxes, transportation and medical care to
entertainment, education and mortgage payments.
The reasons for inflation often seem convoluted and overly complex. Food prices are up in part because of demand from the ethanol
industry, which relies on corn to produce the fuel. This has helped spike the price of corn, which in turn makes anything made from
corn, or products from the livestock that eats it, more expensive.

While the credit crisis and real estate debacle has been in the headlines lately, there is something else brewing in the background. The
global food crisis will likely gather much more attention in the years to come as shortages in arable land, climate change, and
overpopulation could potentially send food prices through the roof. The food crisis could possibly bring on the threat of famine to
many more parts of the world and it could crush the earnings of businesses that are directly or indirectly impacted by rising food
prices.

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Food prices have been and will continue to increase at alarming rates, thanks
to a larger world population and a decrease in both arable land and fresh
water supplies
Jared Irish, Archer Financial Services, “Surviving the Global Food Crisis,” 7-18-08,
http://www.insidefutures.com/article/72373/Surviving%20the%20Global%20Food%20Crisis.html

Although food and energy are considered by the Federal Reserve to be too volatile and unimportant to be included in the CPI, the fact
is that prices of these commodities have been increasing at an accelerating rate. Highlighting the situation was the recent news that the
Consumer Price Index just hit 5 percent, which is the highest level in 26 years. Food prices are up 70 percent in the last year alone.
Some well respected individuals have questioned the intentions of the authorities undertaking the practice of stripping the food and
energy prices from the index and changing the way it is calculated. As the average consumer is already on a tight budget, the threat of
accelerating food prices should be of great concern to both individuals and businesses that are most impacted by rising food prices.

Over the past 50 years we have witnessed an explosion in the world’s population. In 1959 it was about 3.0 billion. Today the world
population is close to 7 billion. It has more than doubled in the last 50 years and is increasing at a rate of 250,000 per day. Not only is
the population increasing, the per capita consumption of grain intensive meats is accelerating, as well. Over the last 30 years China's
average consumption of meat averaged about 20 kilograms per capita. Recent data has shown that meat consumption in China has
now increased to 60 kilograms per capita. Of the earth's 57.5 million square miles of land, approximately 7.65 million square miles are
arable. However, arable land is currently being lost at the rate of over 38,610 square miles annually. Due to pollution, environmental
changes, and excessive stress on the land we are facing soil erosion and degradation of the world’s water supply. It is estimated that
400 of China's 600 largest cities are short of water. According to the United Nations, more than half of humanity will be living with
water shortages, depleted fisheries and polluted coastlines within 50 years because of a worldwide water crisis.

Unfavorable weather has jacked up prices all over the food industry
Seeking Alpha, 7-18-08, Oil and Food Prices Likely To Remain High and Volatile,”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/85693-oil-and-food-prices-likely-to-remain-high-and-volatile
Oil and food prices are likely to remain high and volatile as low inventories and capacity margins are expected to persist for some
time, the International Monetary Fund says in its latest World Economic Outlook.
Oil production is expected to remain broadly stagnant, as much of the small amount of new capacity coming on stream is likely to be
offset by further production declines in existing fields, the IMF says. In food markets, rising biofuels production and continued strong
net demand from emerging and developing economies should continue to exert pressure on some prices.
In the oil market, the strong upward momentum in prices has reflected a sluggish supply response against the backdrop of already
stretched spare capacity at the start of the global recovery.
There is now widespread realization that production and distribution capacity will be slow to build up, reflecting soaring investment
costs, technological, geological, and policy constraints, as well as the rundown of existing fields. This is expected to perpetuate very
low spare capacity and tight market conditions.
Turning to food commodities, the recent price surges reflect a confluence of factors. Demand growth—partly reflecting the strong
growth in emerging and developing economies noted earlier—has generally outstripped supply growth for many food commodities
over the past 8–10 years, notably major grains and edible oils. The general upward pressure on prices has been strongly reinforced by
a number of developments since 2006:
* Unfavorable weather conditions reduced harvest yields in both 2006 and 2007 in an unusually large number of countries. Wheat
harvests, in particular, had been adversely affected, which led to a sharp bidding-up of wheat prices, with spillovers into close
substitutes (particularly rice).

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The IMF confirms—food prices are soaring with no signs of slowing down
Sam Fleming, Daily Mail, 7-18-08, iStockAnalyst,
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews+articleid_2411437~title_High-Oil-and-Food-Prices.html
There will be no let-up from "high and volatile" oil and food prices, the International Monetary Fund warned.
The Washington-based IMF hiked its global inflation forecasts in an economic update, warning central banks need to keep a hawkish
eye on price pressures.
Consumer prices will rise 3.4pc this year in advanced economies and a blistering 9.1pc in the developing world.

Food prices have risen 8.2% in the last year alone, and are continuing to rise
Naomi Fairfax, RedOrbit, 7-17-08, “Price Rises Bite Families; Food Costs at 18-Year High,”
http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1483322/price_rises_bite_families_food_costs_at_18year_high/
Nelson families are facing an increasing battle to put food on the table, with new statistics showing that soaring food prices have
reached an 18-year high.Statistics New Zealand's latest food price index figures show a rise of 8.2 percent in the year to June - the
highest annual increase since June 1990, when a rise of 10 percent was recorded after a GST increase the previous July.The increase
has prompted renewed calls for the Government to help struggling families.Andrew and Tasha Goodale, of Stoke, would support any
move to reduce the increasing cost of putting food on their table for children Connor, 3, and Alyssa, 18 months.Mr Goodale, a
production manager at a joinery company, said he worked an extra job for four months of the year to increase the family's
income."Trying to feed a family of four on fresh veges is very difficult. Broccoli is more than $3 a head."They have switched to frozen
vegetables to cut the weekly food bill.The family buys three or four bottles of milk a week, and said the increase in dairy prices had
been particularly noticeable. It also concerned them that soft drink was so cheap in comparison."They should take a dollar off milk
and put it on fizzy drink," Mr Goodale said.The statistics show that on an annual basis, grocery food prices rose 12.1 percent, with
milk up 22 percent, cheddar cheese 62 percent, bread 15 percent and butter 87 percent.Fruit and vegetables were up 9 percent for the
year while meat, poultry and fish rose 4.4 percent.

Restaurants are already suffering under exorbitant prices


David Bogoslaw, Business Week, 7-18-08, “Food Companies: Recipes for Tough Times,”
http://www.newschannel5.com/Global/Story.asp?S=8698734
From soup to nuts, these are difficult times for food manufacturers. Spikes in energy prices have pushed up the costs of plastic
packaging and transportation, while unprecedented surges in corn and wheat prices have also taken a toll on profits. On the other side
are cash-strapped consumers who are reining in spending or switching to cheaper private-label foods in an effort to stretch their
paychecks.

Having already teased out costs through greater automation, shrinking inventory, and tighter logistics, manufacturers are now looking
for new ways to improve, or just preserve, profit margins. Although they have no choice but to pass on higher costs to customers, they
are now able to do it in smarter ways-by raising prices on only the least price-sensitive items instead of whole product lines or
tailoring prices to various levels of demand in local markets, for example. Foodmakers are also tweaking product presentation and
packaging in an effort to boost sales volumes.

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In 2008, food prices made their largest single jump since 1991, and the cost of living rose to its highest
since 1982
Shobhana Chandra and Timothy R. Homan, Reporter for Chicago Daily Reporter, 7-16-08,
Bloomberg.com,http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aytt_8EhMyRE&refer=home
U.S. consumer prices surged 5 percent in the past year, the biggest jump since 1991, just as households struggled with falling home
values and the credit crunch.Spiraling expenses for food and fuel spurred the increase in June, the Labor Department said today in
Washington. The cost of living rose 1.1 percent from May, more than forecast and the second-largest rise since 1982. Separate figures
showed industrial production rose more than estimated because of the end of a strike at American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings
Inc. and increased electricity output.Price gains accelerated last month even after stripping out energy and food, underscoring the
challenge for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke as he attempts to steer the economy through the slowdown and credit crisis.
Treasuries fell.``This is a problem for the economy; it's even worse for the Fed,'' said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic
Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania. ``Inflation numbers are high enough that under different circumstances the Fed would be
hiking rates.''Excluding food and energy, so-called core costs climbed 0.3 percent in June from the previous month and 2.4 percent
from a year before.Yields JumpBenchmark 10-year note yields rose to 3.93 percent at 4:20 p.m. in New York, from 3.82 percent late
yesterday. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index advanced 2.5 percent to close at 1,245.36, after earnings from Wells Fargo & Co.
topped analysts' estimates.Consumer prices were forecast to rise 0.7 percent, according to the median estimate of 79 economists in a
Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from gains of 0.2 percent to 1.1 percent. Costs excluding food and energy were forecast
to rise 0.2 percent, the survey showed.Bernanke told lawmakers in semiannual testimony on the economy yesterday and today that
inflation risks have ``intensified.'' At the same time, he dropped his June assessment that risks to the economic expansion had
diminished, indicating policy makers aren't ready to raise interest rates to contain expenses.``We don't think they're going to raise rates
now -- until June next year now is our forecast -- until basically the economy starts to get some footing,'' Beth Ann Bovino, senior
economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. ``Right now the beast is what's going to
happen with the economy.''Exceeding ForecastsPrices were forecast to climb 4.5 percent in June from a year earlier, according to the
survey median.A separate report today said confidence among U.S. homebuilders dropped to 16 this month, a record low. Readings for
current sales, expected sales and buyer traffic in the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo sentiment index also were at
all-time lows.``The magnitude of the housing bubble was unprecedented, and the corrective process promises to be a long and painful
one,'' Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said in a note to clients.The Fed said today that
production at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5 percent last month after dropping 0.2 percent in May. Capacity utilization,
which measures the proportion of plants in use, rose to 79.9 percent from 79.6 percent.Strike's ResolutionThe resolution of a three-
month strike by General Motors Corp.'s largest axle supplier, American Axle, probably helped lift auto output. Excluding autos,
factory output fell 0.1 percent for a second month.Wholesale costs rose 1.8 percent in June, the most in seven months, the Labor
Department reported yesterday. From a year ago, prices climbed 9.2 percent, the biggest surge since 1981.Companies, unable to fully
recover ballooning raw-material costs by raising prices, have cut staff and reduced equipment purchases as profits shrink.Kimberly-
Clark Corp., the maker of Huggies diapers and Scott paper towels, said earnings for this year will trail its previous forecast as
expenses rise more than twice as fast as predicted,``Inflation has outpaced our ability to offset higher costs in the near term through
price increases, cost reductions and other measures,'' Thomas Falk, the Dallas-based company's chief executive officer, said this week
in a statement.Price IncreaseProcter & Gamble Co., the maker of Tide detergent and Head & Shoulders shampoo, last week said it'll
raise prices as much as 16 percent due to higher costs for plastic, energy and paper. The increases start in September and are the
Cincinnati-based company's steepest in at least 18 months.Energy expenses jumped 6.6 percent, the biggest gain since November.
Gasoline soared 10.1 percent and fuel oil jumped 10.4 percent.The cost of fuel will continue stoking price pressures. Crude oil futures
reached a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11 and have risen almost 90 percent in the past year. Regular gasoline, which topped $4 a
gallon for the first time in June, kept rising this month, AAA figures show.The consumer price index is Labor's broadest gauge of
costs. Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie
tickets.Food ExpensesFood prices, which account for about a fifth of the CPI, increased 0.8 percent, driven by the biggest gain in the
cost of vegetables in almost four years.The report showed that food and fuel weren't the only items on the rise. Costs for airline fares
jumped 4.5 percent, the most since 2001.

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Food prices are 54% higher than in 2008, and grain prices are at a 30 year high
Moises Velasquez-Manoff, Staff Writer of The Christian Science Monitor, 7-18-08, “Diet for a more-crowded
planet: plants,” http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/07/18/diet-for-a-more-crowded-planet-plants/
In the first quarter of 2008, grain prices climbed to a 30-year high. On average, food prices are 54 percent higher than in 2007. Grains
have gone up 92 percent. Hungry mobs, hard-pressed to afford staples, rioted in Haiti, Mexico, and Bangladesh.

Experts point to a “perfect storm” of speculation, hoarding, drought in Australia, and diversion of grain to biofuels as culprits in the
global food crisis.

But for some, the skyrocketing grain prices fulfill a longstanding prediction: A growing world population has more buying power. The
newly affluent eat more meat. A rising share of the world’s agricultural output goes to animals. While grain supplies are more than
adequate to feed everyone now, say experts, the current price spike shows that even an adequate supply doesn’t preclude hunger for
the world’s poor. And in the future, a day may come when there isn’t enough grain for both humans and livestock – at least not at the
US consumption rate. Add to this the environmental impacts of modern industrial-scale meat production, and many wonder: With a
predicted world population of 9.5 billion by midcentury, are we all destined to be vegetarians?

All over the world countries are witnessing the sting of food price hikes
Simon Montlake, The Christian Science Moniter, 7-14-08, “Indonesia's answer to rising food prices,”
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0715/p07s01-wosc.html
With a milling plant and a hectare of rice paddy, Aan Suharlan is fully invested in Asia's favorite food staple. Rice put his two grown-
up children through school and has given him status in his village. But when he sees other farmers plow over their rice fields, he
knows why they're giving up on the grain.

"It's expensive to plant rice because of high production and labor costs. It's difficult to find laborers here – everyone wants to work in
the factories," he says.

For months, the soaring price of food – especially rice – has been on everyone's lips after international prices nearly tripled between
January and April. Prices have since eased off, but the shock waves continue to reverberate across Asia, where politicians are talking
up food security and tariff protection.

In theory, higher global prices should mean more income for rice farmers here on Java, the breadbasket of this archipelago nation of
228 million who together eat around 32 million tons a year. Some of the benefits are trickling down to farmers, but they may not be
enough to halt the steady shrinkage of rice paddy, which agriculturalists say is one factor driving up prices.

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Arizona proves—high food costs are already putting farmers in difficult situations
WMICENTRAL.COM, 7-18-08, “Arizona retail food prices up 18 percent from a year ago,”
http://www.wmicentral.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19858714&BRD=2264&PAG=461&dept_id=506173&rfi=
6
Arizona food costs up 18 percent from a year ago; farmers' input costs as much as 50 percent higher. Retail food prices at the
supermarket increased in the first quarter of 2008, according to the latest Arizona Farm Bureau Federation Marketbasket Survey. The
informal survey shows the total cost of 16 basic grocery items was $53.53, up more than 8 percent or $4.33 from the fourth quarter of
2007, comparatively the American Farm Bureau Federation survey was $45.03, up about 8 percent or $3.42 during the quarter. Of
the 16 items surveyed in Arizona, ten increased, five decreased and one kept the same average price compared to the 2007 fourth-
quarter survey. The national survey shows 11 items increased, four decreased and one stayed the same. Compared to one year ago, the
overall cost for the Arizona marketbasket items shows an increase of about 18 percent. To access an entire menu focused on those
items down in price and designed around saving on your food budget in addition to more tips on stretching your food dollar, go to
www.azfb.org and look for the Fill Your Plate logo on the homepage. Once you select Fill Your Plate you'll find the "Stretch Your
Food Dollar" menu and the additional tips. In Arizona a 5-pound bag of flour showed the largest quarter-to-quarter increase, up
$1.13 to $3.69 or 44 percent. Other items that increased in price were: One pound of bacon, up 93 cents to $3.69 a pound; mild
cheddar cheese up 90 cents to $4.82 a pound; ground chuck up 57 cents to $3.99 a pound; a gallon of whole milk up 50 cents to $4.15;
32 oz. corn oil up 48 cents to $3.37; 32 oz. vegetable oil up 32 cents to $3.08; center cut pork chops up 30 cents per pound to $ 5.29; a
dozen large eggs up 27 cents to $2.72 and 32 oz. Kraft mayonnaise up 16 cents to $3.72. Nationally, a 5-pound bag of flour also
showed the largest price increase, up 69 cents to $2.39 followed by cheddar cheese, up 61 cents to $4.71 per pound. "The $1.13
increase in a five pound bag of flour reflects the continued strength in the wheat markets," says Arizona Farm Bureau President Kevin
Rogers. "Plus, when looking at all other food market items you recognize that more than a third of the increased food costs this quarter
is attributed to your oil-based products including mayonnaise." In Arizona, russet potatoes showed the greatest decrease in price
down 61 cents to $2.25 for a 5-pound bag; whole fryers were down 24 cents to $1.45 a pound; toasted oat cereal, down 17 cents to
$3.25 for a 10-oz box; red delicious apples, down 14 cents to $1.62 a pound and a 20-oz loaf of white bread, down 7 cents. Prices
remained the same on a sirloin tip roast at $4.99 a pound. Prices remained steady on beef due to local supply and meat processing here
in Arizona. While retail grocery prices have gradually increased, the share of the average food dollar that America's farm and ranch
families receive has dropped over time. "In the mid-1970s, farmers received about one-third of consumer retail food expenditures
on average. That figure has decreased steadily over time and is now just 22 percent, according to Agriculture Department statistics,"
said American Farm Bureau Economist Jim Sartwell. Using that percentage across the board, the Arizona farmer's share of this
quarter's $53.53 marketbasket total would be $11.78. "We're being hit with high prices like everyone else," adds Arizona Farm
Bureau's Rogers. "Arizona farmers and ranchers are paying 10 to 50 percent more for a range of inputs and supplies compared to just
over a year ago. Fertilizer and fuel top the list with the cost for each up as much as 50 percent. And, our returns are not keeping pace."
Arizona Farm Bureau member, mother of four and educator Leigh Hurst suggests she's making an even more concerted effort to save
on her food budget. "With the rising cost of living and managing a family it's become more critical than ever to be stewards of our
family financial resources." Aside from the typical recommendations of tracking weekly sales circulars from grocery stores and using
coupons, Hurst, who taught in the public school system and is a certified master food preserver, even suggests using food preservation
techniques such as canning, drying and freezing. "Plus, I don't hesitate to stock up when I find a great deal. But remember that a food
item on discount is not a bargain if no one will eat it or it spoils before it can be consumed."

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Aff Answers – AT: Biofuels Link


Biofuels don’t cause high food prices – alt causes like meat consumption, low
ag productivity, and ethanol subsidies

The Guardian, 5-30-08, “Burning food: why oil is the real villain in the food crisis,”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/30/biofuels.food [Tandet]

So can we confidently convict biofuels of the charge of causing a very large part of the spikes in food prices? Not quite.
Few will dispute that biofuels have made the problem worse, but the roots of food price inflation are far deeper and even
more worrying.

The first factor is one happily raised by the US ethanol industry. It points out that their refineries are using far less corn than
is needed to meet the increasing demand from Chinese consumers for meat. One lobbying document points out that
Chinese meat consumption per person has doubled in the last decade or so, rising almost to European levels. This increase has
required an extra 200m tonnes of grain per year to feed the animals, twice what will be used in 2008 in US ethanol
refineries. So rising demand from the growing middle classes in developing countries is driving prices up more than
biofuels.

FAO data also indicates that more grain has gone to feed animals in the past 10 years, although their estimates are less
alarming than those from the US ethanol industry. The FAO says the grain being used for animal feed has risen by about a
100m tonnes in the past 10 years, but this compares to an increase of only 70m tonnes in the amount directly consumed by
people.

This leads on to a second, even more worrying issue that underlies food price inflation. Agricultural productivity is simply
not growing fast enough. US government data shows global yields per hectare rose 2% a year between 1970 and 1990 and
then fell to 1.1% over the succeeding period. Productivity enhancements over the next 10 years are expected to average
less than 1% a year. Since world population growth is averaging somewhat over 1%, we are heading for global hunger, with
biofuels only hastening the speed.

We can see this in production data from the FAO: the amount of available grain for every person in the world edged
downwards last year. The world could try to compensate for faltering productivity growth by expanding the area given
over to crops, but this runs the risk of increasing the rate of worldwide deforestation, already causing a fifth of global
CO2 emissions.

Lastly, we must consider a thorny economic issue. Government legislation in the US and the European Union – as well as
their large subsidies - may have created the ethanol industry, but the refineries can now stand on their own financial feet.
With oil at $135 a barrel, it is very profitable to turn the starch in maize into motor fuel. Simply put, food is worth more as
petrol than it is on the table, even if the subsidies are removed. The only way of stopping farmers selling their grain to the
refineries would be to introduce an outright ban on adding ethanol to petrol.

The IMF may be correct that the rise of biofuels has caused much of the world's recent food price inflation. But now that we
know how to make ethanol efficiently from foodstuffs, it is sky-high oil costs that are keeping up the price of agricultural
commodities. For a sustained reduction in food prices, we need oil prices to fall to much lower levels. This would also
reduce fertiliser and diesel expenses, helping to restrain the upward march in agricultural prices.

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Aff Answers – AT: Biofuels Link


Biofuels don’t impact food prices- studies prove

The Inquirer, 7-15-08, “‘Biofuels not to blame for food crisis,”


http://www.inquirer.net/specialfeatures/riceproblem/view.php?db=1&article=20080715-148509, KAPUSTINA

MANILA, Philippines — The US National Biodiesel Board and the Manila-based Asian Institute of Petroleum Studies Inc.
(AIPSI) have both debunked claims that global biofuels development was adversely affecting the food supply and causing
food prices to rise steeply.
“The research done by US experts and the US Department of Agriculture has proven that biofuels-related feedstock
demand has limited impact on the global food supply and pricing,” US NBB chief executive Joe Jobe said.
“The presence of biofuels in the market, in fact, was helping keep US gas prices—now at more than $4 a gallon—from going
even higher, amid skyrocketing prices in the world market,” Jobe said.
For his part, AIPSI managing director Rafael Diaz said that on a global basis, biofuels production was eating up less than 10
percent of the global food supply. This was hardly enough to make a dent on overall supply and to drive food prices up.
The food versus fuel debate was even flimsier when applied to the Philippines, he said, since the country, unlike the United
States, was not using corn as a feedstock for ethanol production or soybean for biodiesel manufacturing.
“To say it has no impact (on the food supply) is naïveté, but to pass on nearly the whole problem of food supply and prices
as being the result of biofuels (development and production) is outright ridiculous,” Diaz said in a statement issued
Monday.

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Aff Answers – AT: Ethanol Link


Ethanol only causes 3% of the price hike – alt causalities

Hank Green, founder of ecogeek.com and computer scientist, 5-22-08, “High food prices: ethanol is not the problem,”
http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1663/70/ [Tandet]

I'm the first to admit that the current round of ethanol is not perfect. The rising demand for ethanol has put more land under
cultivation, increased water shortages, and increased fertilizer and pesticide use. For all that, corn isn't really a great way to
create ethanol, only producing 1.3 units of energy for every 1 unit put into its creation.

However, it is NOT responsible for the 40% increase in food prices over the last few years. It might seem like an easy
target, but let's start with some logic, and then move into the solid figures.

First, how could an increased demand for non-edible corn (used mostly to make high fructose corn syrup and feed for
cattle, chicken and pigs) increase prices of pasta in Italy, onions in India and rice in China?

Second, is there any other trend, besides the increase in biofuel production that could be blamed for rising food costs. Any
trend at all? Possibly a larger, more global, more significant, and much more difficult to deal with trend?

Yes, it turns out that there are two such trends. The rising prosperity of people in the world, who are now happy to be
eating more (and more meat). And second, the related rise in fuel prices, due to increased demand in developing countries.

Of the 40% increase in food prices, about 3% can be attributed to food crops being used in biofuels. At least 8% (PDF)
can be attributed to rising costs of fuel used to grow and transport the crops from farms to the grocer. But the big hunk comes
in with increased demand.

Ethanol doesn’t jack prices – the weak dollar jacks prices. There’s plenty of
land available.

Tanpa Tribune, 3-18-08, “Soberly Weighing Advantages Of Higher Ethanol Consumption,” Nation/World pg. 10, Lexis [Tandet]
In any case, don't blame ethanol for the soaring price of wheat, corn and other commodities, nor for the rising price of
meat. Actually, most corn is eaten by animals. That's why meat prices have risen along with the price of grain. The real villain
is the falling dollar.

As the dollar loses value, foreign companies buy more U.S. grain. Wheat exports are up more than 60 percent over last
year and are still increasing.

Currently, we taxpayers subsidize ethanol by 51 cents a gallon. In general, consumers are better off when the market sets
prices. The political reality is that crop subsidies won't soon be eliminated, so let's see what our money is buying.

The ethanol subsidy cost about $3 billion last year, but the high demand for grain lowered price supports for farmers by $6
billion. And, Dale estimates, the subsidized ethanol reduced the bill for imported oil by $15 billion.

Planting more crops for energy on more land raises environmental questions, to be sure, but much farmland is available,
especially here in the South.

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Aff Answers – AT: Geothermal Power Link


Geothermal power doesn’t use much land – it’s compatible with agriculture

Gerald K. Braun, Team Leader for the California Energy Commission (CEC) Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Renewable
Energy Technologies Program Area, and Pete McCluer, independent alternative energy development consultant, ’93, “Geothermal
power generation in the United States,” http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=241485 [Tandet]

Land use impacts from geothermal power plants are also minimal. Only a few acres must be dedicated to the power
plant, well pads, and the geothermal fluid gathering and reinjection piping (Table 2). Agricultural use, livestock grazing, and
wildlife are generally compatible with geothermal power plants. With proper siting and trade-offs, geothermal power
plants can also be compatible with scenic and recreational land uses.

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Aff Answers – AT: Solar Power Link


Solar power doesn’t take a lot of land – it can be built on top of existing
structures

Randall Parker, Professor of Economics at East Carolina University Greenville, 7-24-07, “Renewable Energy Seen as Harmful to
Environment,” http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/004416.html [Tandet]

Ausubel finds fault with solar due to land area usage. But if photovoltaics were restricted for use only on existing structures
(e.g. on houses, commercial buildings, and even on bridges) then the amount of additional land used could be minimized.
The amount of area we'd need for solar power is two Ohios for enough solar power for the entire world. Though that's
based on current world energy consumption and 10% efficient photovoltaics. We could create 50% efficient photovoltaics
and then only put photovoltaics on human structures and get enough energy.

No link – solar power uses small areas of non-arable land

Ron Bengtson, founder and director of American Energy Independence, ’08, “America’s Solar Energy Potential,”
http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:BQhsE0XXQeEJ:www.americanenergyindependence.com/solarenergy.html+solar+energy+lan
d&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us [Tandet]

All of California's electricity can be produced from 200 square miles of sunshine; 128,000 acres of desert land. Lake
Mead, behind Hoover Dam, covers more than 200 square miles. Given an area the size of Lake Mead, for the production of
electricity from solar energy, California would be energy independent.

CSP plants seem to use a lot of land, but in reality, they use less land than hydroelectric dams for generating an
equivalent electricity output, if the size of the lake behind the dam is considered. The same is true for coal plants. A CSP
plant will not use any more land than a coal power plant if the amount of land required for mining and excavation of the
coal is taken into consideration.

If the sunshine radiating on the surface of an area 100 miles wide by 100 miles long would provide all of the electricity
that America needs, every day, why would Americans hesitate to use it? There are millions of open acres in the deserts of
America, where the sun’s energy does nothing more than heat rocks and sand everyday.

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Aff Answers – AT: Solar Power Link


TURN- solar power provides clean water necessary for agriculture

Robert Freling, 3-26-08, executive director of solar electric life fund, “Solar Electric Light Fund Tackles Benin's Arid Land,”
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=51912, KAPUSTINA

Western Africa's dry season wreaks havoc on the lives of millions of people year after year. But now some villages in Benin are
going to harness solar power to solve their water problems. Robert Freling reports.
The 104,000 people living in Benin's Kalalé District are particularly hard hit by seasonal drought: 95 per cent of them rely on
subsistence farming as their primary means of survival. And for most, farming is limited to the rainy season due the lack of
accessible water for irrigation during the dry season. Beyond providing a cleaner and quieter local environment in
comparison to diesel pumps, solar pumping can provide a carbon-free and sustainable energy source.
During the dry season people suffer from poor diets, little income and the necessity of buying expensive food from the
tropical areas of the country. For half the year, a lack of farm work causes community dislocation as many families migrate
to overcrowded urban areas in search of employment.
Kalalé District's dry season typically lasts six months a year. During this time, crops are only grown in the very limited areas
near rivers or lakes. In these more fortunate villages, water is commonly moved through the laborious and time-consuming
method of filling containers by hand and slowly watering individual plants. This labour-intensive process severely limits the
amount of land that can be cultivated during the dry season.
Local generators
There have been limited attempts to irrigate Kalalé's farmland with pumps powered by gas or diesel engines but these attempts
have been short-lived due to maintenance difficulties and the high cost of fuel in the region. In addition, the national electric
grid has not reached Kalalé District. Currently the only electrical generation is supplied by small, local generators sparsely
disbursed throughout the region.
Over 80 per cent of Kalalé's villages do not have a source of surface water and virtually nothing is grown during the dry
season. During this time, families live on a combination of stored grains and expensive food brought up from the tropical
southern part of the country. Prices for basic vegetables, such as tomatoes, onions and peppers, almost double during the dry
season. The lack of availability and high prices combine to severely limit diets during the dry season and malnutrition is
prevalent.
In addition to a lack of water for crop production, many villages in Kalalé also suffer from a lack of clean water for drinking
and domestic use. Those without clean water suffer from various water-borne illnesses while those with wells spend a great
deal of time fetching water from a limited number of hand-pumps that are often not working.
The Solar Electric Light Fund (SELF) is working to install low-cost micro-irrigation and solar water pumps in two villages in
the District. This will create a reliable and economical means of irrigation and enable families in these villages to grow crops
during the six month dry season for significant improvements in family income and nutrition.
Clean water
At least 20 families (100-200 people) will directly benefit from the solar-irrigation project and approximately 4,500
people living in two communities will benefit from the added supply of clean water during the rainy season. The first
phase of the project, which was funded in part by the $100,000 seed money that SELF won in the World Bank's Development
Marketplace Competition, began in August 2007.
Once completed, the solar drip-irrigation technology that is being installed will provide participating families will more
than double their annual income. They will be able to increase considerably their consumption of fresh
vegetables during the dry season thus reducing malnutrition.
Project villages will double or even triple the harvest of fresh vegetables during the dry season and will gain an average
of 6,000-8,000 gallons per day or more of clean water during the rainy season.

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Aff Answers – AT: Wind Power Link


Wind power doesn’t waste farmland

Randall Parker, Professor of Economics at East Carolina University Greenville, 7-24-07, “Renewable Energy Seen as Harmful to
Environment,” http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/004416.html [Tandet]

Again, Ausubel sees problems with wind. But can't wind towers be built on farm fields so that the same lands produce
crops and energy simultaneously?

“Turning to wind Ausubel points out that while wind farms are between three to ten times more compact than a biomass
farm, a 770 square kilometer area is needed to produce as much energy as one 1000 Megawatt electric (MWe) nuclear plant.
To meet 2005 US electricity demand and assuming round-the-clock wind at the right speed, an area the size of Texas,
approximately 780,000 square kilometers, would need to be covered with structures to extract, store, and transport the energy.”

At least wind towers would leave most of the ground area still available for wild plants and animals. Also, wind towers built off
coast beyond visibility from land could leave land habitats undisturbed

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