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Food Prices Supplement

DDI 2008 CM
Joy Goel

Food Prices Supplement
Food Prices Supplement .......................................................................................................................................1
Non-Uniqueness – FP Rising (1/3)........................................................................................................................2
Non-Uniqueness – FP Rising (2/3)........................................................................................................................3
Non-Uniqueness – FP Rising (3/3)........................................................................................................................4
High FP Good (1/2)...............................................................................................................................................5
High FP Good (2/2)................................................................................................................................................6
China Inequality Turn (1/2).....................................................................................................................................................................7
China Inequality Turn (1/2).....................................................................................................................................................................8
Poverty Turn ...........................................................................................................................................................................................9
High FP Bad.........................................................................................................................................................10
Alt Causes - High FP Not because of AE............................................................................................................11

Team India (That’s right, the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 1
Strikes Again

we also have the scientific and research communities in our universities and laboratories.$30 Million Grant approved The Business Journal of Milwaukee.5 percent this year and another 4 percent to 5 percent in 2009. Biofuels Increasing now . we have the agricultural community.S." "We have the right conditions.dll/article?AID=/20080724/BUSINESS01/807240340/1003/NEWS01 Gov.com/apps/pbcs. http://www. Flambeau River BioFuels said the final award value will be subject to final negotiation with the Department of Energy. Mail Tribune. "because of a strong belief that we in Tennessee are very well positioned to be a leader in alternative fuels. Team India (That’s right.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel Non-Uniqueness – FP Rising (1/3) Biofuels/Alternative Energy Increasing Now – New Factory in Tennessee THEO EMERY.tennessean. Those increases come on the heels of a 4 percent increase last year. http://www. Food Prices Will Continue to Rise means Non-Unique Damian Mann. The project relies in part on more than $70 million in state funds as well as federally funded research from Oak Ridge National Laboratories. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 2 Strikes Again . 7-24-08. will produce at least six million gallons of liquid fuels per year in the form of renewable sulfur-free diesel. “Federal grant approved for Park Falls biodiesel plant” 7-15-08.com/milwaukee/stories/2008/07/14/daily12.mailtribune.bizjournals. Bredesen said.html A company that wants to build a biodiesel fuel plant at a pulp and paper mill in Park Falls has had a $30 million grant request approved by the U. Department of Energy. http://www. 7-27-08. Department of Agriculture predicts food prices will increase 4." the governor said.5 percent to 5.com/apps/pbcs. when in full operation.dll/article?AID=/20080727/NEWS/807270314 The U. Phil Bredesen and UT President John Petersen on Wednesday announced the public-private initiative to develop so- called "cellulosic ethanol" on Capitol Hill. we have the right climate and resources to grow large quantities of biomass. The firm plans to construct and operate a biorefinery that. Staff Writer The Tennessean.S. The state has invested in the project.

food prices are likely to continue to rise. which can lead to more hoarding and further increases food prices. bees are an important link in the chain that produces much of the food that we eat.com/eight-reasons-food-prices-will-keep- rising?puc=msgoogle&cm_ven=MSGoogle Be prepared -. these people demand more and a greater variety of food. 7-7-08. Weather Recent flooding in the Midwest and Corn Belt has prevented farmers from planting soybeans and damaged the corn crop.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel Non-Uniqueness – FP Rising (2/3) Food Prices will increase for a number of reasons Jeffery Strain. This has tightened world food stocks. To make matters worse. Analysts have estimated that there may be a shortfall of 15% or more in grain produced this year compared to last year due to the flooding. Speculation Speculation's role in increased food prices is hotly debated. The exact cause of Colony Collapse Disorder is not known. Agriculture tends to be heavily dependent on energy for fueling tractors and field equipment. Poor weather has reduced overall global food production from Canada.food is going to become more expensive. Here are some reasons food prices will continue to increase. The bad weather hasn't been limited to the U. the crops can't bear fruit.mainstreet. which has contributed to rising food prices. The Street. as well as having a heavy reliance on petroleum-based fertilizers and herbicides. Since roughly 75% of flowering plants rely on pollination to help them reproduce. but it appears that investors have taken an interest in food prices and are playing a larger role in the commodity markets.. Team India (That’s right. But what most people don't realize is that even if oil prices level off. Colony Collapse Disorder wiped out 30% to 90% of beekeeper hives. the European Union and Eastern Europe over the last couple of years. The Lowly Dollar The dollar has fallen against other world currencies over the past year. When the dollar goes down in value against other currencies. With more disposable income. further increasing food prices. food manufacturers still have room to raise the actual prices where they would have been much more reluctant to do so if they had previously raised prices the same way. The losses continued last year through this year with over 30% of hives being destroyed in both 2007 and 2008. In the same way. most major food commodities are traded in dollars. These middle classes will likely continue to increase. Part of the huge increase in oil prices can be attributed to the fall of the value of the dollar against other currencies. which had recently been planted. Many people don't notice the change so they don't lose as much in sales. The end result is higher prices in the supermarket for these foods. In 2006. causing crop yields to drop. placing more pressure on world food prices. World Demand for Food There is a growing demand for food around the world with the emergence of a middle class in such places as China. Hidden Price Increases Normally.S. One way around this that manufacturers have been using is that instead of raising the price marked on the product. any dollar-denominated commodity tends to go up in price. Bees The number of bees has been dramatically declining over the last few years. http://www. A drought has resulted in a major Australian wheat decline. As food supplies tighten. Hoarding A growing number of countries have sharply curbed food exports in order to ensure an adequate supply of food at affordable prices for their country. it also puts pressure on world food prices including those foods being imported to the U. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 3 Strikes Again . While this trend is a much bigger problem for poor countries that rely heavily on imported food than the U. which makes foreign-produced food more expensive. the hoarding creates the perception of food shortages. Africa and the Middle East. There is always fear among food manufacturers when they must raise prices that doing so will cause a decline in the amount they can sell. there is a good chance that speculators will increase in the hope of making a quick buck.S. they simply place less into the package. food manufacturers would be hard-pressed to increase food prices further if they had already raised prices with their increased costs from oil. Without bees to pollinate crops.S. Latin America. even if oil prices stabilize. Having done this.

with most London schools putting up the price from £8.xml The situation is likely to worsen over the coming months with energy bills expected to increase further. Even the cost of lunch at most state schools will increase by more than the rate of inflation when children return from the summer holidays.telegraph. food prices showing no signs of calming down and private school fees on the rise.50 a week to £9. 7-25-08.uk/money/main. Telegraph – an English news source. Consumer Affairs Correspondent. Team India (That’s right.co.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel Non-Uniqueness – FP Rising (3/3) No Signs of Food Prices Stopping By Harry Wallop. http://www.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/21/nflation121. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 4 Strikes Again .

Why? Other factors remaining constant. For Kenya the food exports from Uganda are bound to increase as the most fertile part of Kenya was the one which was most affected by chaos in that country and many are still displaced.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. Lexis. apart from the effect of increased oil prices.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel High FP Good (1/2) Increased Food Prices Key to Ugandan Economy The Monitor. is scandalous. normally food prices rise during the planting season. Apart from the regional market which is impacting on the local food prices. http://www. Team India (That’s right. The writing is on the wall that the demand for agricultural commodities has increased. Uganda is now a food basket for the region. DRC. Lexis.do?start=13&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T424 5340224 On food prices. and Kenya. 4-14-08. This is good for the Ugandan farmer. That not withstanding the increasing food prices are good. and therefore obesity. the world food prices are experiencing an upward trend.lexisnexis. In short. Meat prices in Kampala had gone up as a result of the cattle in Uganda being shared between the Uganda and the Sudan market. Africa News. Some people will do anything to make a buck. A lot of Ugandan food is being exported to southern Sudan. to unprocessed farm produce.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 5 Strikes Again . Almost everything goes to Juba these days from locally manufactured goods including mineral water.lexisnexis.do?start=6&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T4245 340224 The justification that increasing food prices would be beneficial in terms of reducing food consumption. 2-2-6-07. The likelihood is that agricultural production might fall calling for food imports from Uganda and other countries. High Food Prices Solve Obesity Business Week. The challenge now is for the planners of the economy to ensure increased agricultural production and Naads comes in handy. some in Uganda while some are within Kenya. http://www. increased prices are good for the Ugandan manufacturer and farmer.

lexisnexis. The Irish Times. http://www.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4254042494&format=GNBFI&so rt=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=51&resultsUrlKey=29_T4254042497&cisb=22_T4254042496&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=14 2626&docNo=67 Biofuels are already impacting on world food prices. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 6 Strikes Again . but other factors such as the drought in the southern hemisphere are also playing a part. Speaking at the Institute of European Affairs in Dublin. a leading expert in the area said yesterday. 9-4-07.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel High FP Good (2/2) High Food Prices Stimulate African Economy John Downes. Team India (That’s right. Prof Peter Hazell also said that the development of the biofuels sector and accompanying high food prices could have long-term benefits by stimulating agriculture in poorer countries such as those in Africa.

do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4245267957&format=GNBFI&so rt=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4245267960&cisb=22_T4245267959&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=113 14&docNo=1 With energy prices expected to remain high indefinitely. So far.provided Beijing can resist the temptation to tinker with the market. with wages rising at close to a 20 per cent annual rate. High Food Prices Solve Chinese Income Inequality Tom Holland. the policy cannot continue indefinitely and. 4-21-08. 4-21-08. the structural shift to more expensive food driven by rising energy prices will encourage investment in the agricultural sector and significantly raise rural incomes. Now that would hardly be the disaster so many observers are predicting. few urban workers have been left substantially worse off by the recent increases. however.lexisnexis. Unlike most observers. the fundamental structural shift in global agricultural markets driven by energy prices will help narrow the income gap between China's cities and countryside and go a long way to alleviating rural poverty. For one thing. most foodprices are set by the market and there are few barriers to international trade. Team India (That’s right. Lexis. South China Morning Post. Dr Rozelle and Dr Huang believe higher food prices have positive implications . prices in China closely follow global food prices (see the second chart below). that means China had better get used to more expensive food for the foreseeable future. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 7 Strikes Again . http://www. Lexis. If Beijing would just butt out and leave the market to do the work. http://www. by artificially holding down the price of grain. South China Morning Post. the government is encouraging farmers to switch to other crops such as soya bean. domestic prices are not affected by international fluctuations.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel China Inequality Turn (1/2) Chinese Food Prices Follow Global Trend Tom Holland.lexisnexis. which risks creating a grain shortage in the future. But that is short-sighted.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. Beijing has sought to keep a lid on grain prices by selling from reserves. for another. Although higher food prices are not popular with city-dwellers.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. Dr Rozelle has little patience with the often cited argument that because China only imports 1 per cent to 2 per cent of its food. argues Dr Rozelle. He points out that although the state interferes in the pricing of some staples such as wheat and rice. As a result. In contrast. says Dr Rozelle.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4245267957&format=GNBFI&so rt=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4245267960&cisb=22_T4245267959&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=113 14&docNo=1 And what happens to international food prices happens in China.

the budget deficit: Our public and private elites don’t care about them.S. rich against poor." New Perspectives Quarterly 9. Economic Collapse leads to Nuclear War Walter Russell Mead. America’s leaders preferred to ignore the unpleasant reality. would be among the first tasks that the CCP would tackle. faced no real economic challenges and knew no real limits. like Blanche Dubois. http://www. This urban-rural gap widens further when non-monetary factors are considered. But. Analysts said this 'rethink' reflected a significant shift from the country's decades-long obsession with all-out economic growth in favour of greater social equity and justice. they don’t understand that failure has a price. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. the poorest 10 per cent of Chinese families owned only 2 per cent of the country's wealth.3 (Summer 1992) pp. "Depending on the Kindness of Strangers. A Chinese urbanite also earns at least three times more than his rural counterpart. Such inequities. In contrast. China Bureau Chief. Russia. single-handedly. could no longer.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel China Inequality Turn (1/2) Chinese Inequality leads to social unrest and economic decline Chua Chin Hon. 28-30. China. Lexis. Reports here suggested that income inequality. and made no provisions to meet the coming challenge. as urban Chinese enjoy better access to public health care and education. Team India (That’s right.owned over 40 per cent of the country's wealth. Everyone has known since the ‘70s that the U. Fellow for U. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 8 Strikes Again . The Straits Times. or there should be. If so this new failure—the failure to develop an international system to hedge against the possibility of worldwide depression—will open their eyes to their folly. have fuelled growing resentment of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and sparked social unrest in some instances. There is. They and their leaders have embraced market principles—and drawn closer to the West—because they believe our system can work for them. the disintegration of our inner cities. Perhaps because they grew up in the years when the U.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. Hundreds of millions—billions—of people around the world have pinned their hopes on the international market economy.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4253928352&format=GNBFI&so rt=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4253928355&cisb=22_T4253928354&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=144 965&docNo=2 The official Xinhua news agency also reported last week that China's richest families .S.S. The savings and loan debacle. 'Policy-makers have realised that improper handling of the complicated situation will lead to economic stagnation and social instability.' Xinhua reported yesterday. coupled with endemic corruption and widespread abuse of power by officials.those in the top 10 per cent . manage the global economy. There is something breathtakingly casual in the way the American elite responds to its failures. But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates—or even shrinks? In that case we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North. particularly among civil servants and employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). India—these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to the world order than Germany and Japan did in the ‘30s. nothing surprising about the fix we are in. 9-9-06.

unending. in effect. Lexis. p 195- 196. but redistributive. of course. throughout the world. thermonuclear war. 2000. when wealth tended to accumulate in urban areas.R (232 million). as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. on the average. every fifteen years. Department of Psychiatry Harvard Medical School.000 deaths). and every single year. perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 9 Strikes Again . The 14 to 18 million deaths a year cause by structural violence compare with about 100. in fact accelerating. This is. Solves Poverty Paul Donovan. Team India (That’s right. the Indonesian massacre of 1965-1966 (perhaps 575. the equivalent of an ongoing. In other word. 1935-1945). the Vietnam war (possibly two million. Poverty Outweighs Genocide and Nuclear War. 1954-1973). which continues year after year.000 deaths per year from armed conflict. but in this context particularly urban consumers). two to three times as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period.do?start=42&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T424 5340224 It is important to note that (as with any price increase) the economic consequences of higher food prices are not positive or negative as such. Violence: Reflections on Our Deadliest Epidemic. 5-26-08. or genocide.lexisnexis. and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U. Countering that. Money is redistributed from urban to rural areas as food prices rise . Higher food prices are bad for food consumers (which is everyone. higher food prices are good for food producers. such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths.S. The Edge Malaysia. and the U. including those caused by genocide--or about eight million per year. it kills over 14 million a year James Gilligan.reversing the trend of the last decade or so of economic development.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel Poverty Turn High Food Prices Redistributive. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence.S. it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence.S. http://www.

Worse still. which can lead to further rises in actual inflation. http://www.in the UK and US. In the US.lexisnexis. because food prices loom large in households' consciousness.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. 3-5-08.do?start=2&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T4245 267957 But higher food prices don't just weaken demand and hence profits. http://www. so demand falls. High Food Prices Lead to Inflation Investors Chronicle.38 since January 1992) between annual changes in food prices and in retail sales. 3-5-08.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel High FP Bad High Food Prices Kill Retail Industry Investors Chronicle. We spend more on food than on oil . Lexis. Team India (That’s right. there has been a strong correlation (minus 0. there's a risk that higher prices will raise inflation expectations generally. And that in turn makes it harder for central banks to cut interest rates. people have less to spend on other things. And when food prices rise.do?start=2&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T4245 267957 The reason for this is simple. They also add to inflation . the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 10 Strikes Again .lexisnexis. Lexis.four times as much in the UK and three times as much in the US. food represents around 15 per cent of the CPI and RPI.

With the price of oil at a record high of $117US a barrel. As a result. http://www. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 11 Strikes Again .lexisnexis. South China Morning Post.do?start=2&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T4245 267957 Team India (That’s right. 4-21-08. Inside Energy with Federal Lands. http://www. Inside Energy with Federal Lands. 6-2-08. passed at the end of last year. Biofuels not causing High Food Prices Derek Sands.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. So we're not pulling out (of) any traditional markets." Schafer said.do?start=5&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T4245 340224 At a time when many are criticizing biofuels for driving up food prices. Lexis. "What happens to the oil price happens to food prices.lexisnexis. "I would point out that in the United States and in other countries as well. 3-5-08. Ethanol Offset by Higher Yields Derek Sands.High FP Not because of AE Food Prices high because of government subsidies Tom Holland. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. telling reporters that the increasing use of corn for ethanol under the US biofuels mandate does not translate to a decreased availability of food. 6-2-08. mandated the use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022. prices are going up.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4245267957&format=GNBFI&so rt=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4245267960&cisb=22_T4245267959&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=113 14&docNo=1 Dr Rozelle has no doubt at all why Chinese food prices are rising so steeply. all ethanol production specifically has come from increased yields in the corn crops.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. crowding out food and animal feed cultivation.Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel Alt Causes . and while people do have some concern. Schafer reiterated his department's position that the increasing use of biofuels.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. account for only 2% to 3% of rising food prices. Lexis. Lexis.lexisnexis. as much as 40 per cent of the US corn crop is now being used to produce ethanol.do?start=5&sort=RELEVANCE&format=GNBFI&risb=21_T4245 340224 Schafer defended the US position however." he says (see the first chart below). "Our export markets are up in corn out of the United States." Schafer told reporters Thursday. Lexis." High Food Prices Because of increased Demand Investors Chronicle. The yield increases are taking care of it. He blames the US government's misguided subsidies for biofuels. http://www.lexisnexis. I think we can point out the facts here ? that this is not distorting the global price of food.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. "We think it's an important initiative. which are now largely produced from corn. and certainly the benefits derived are much more than the 2 to 3% that is contributing to the rising inflation in food costs internationally. says Dr Rozelle. http://www.

Food Prices Supplement DDI 2008 CM Joy Goel Worse still.higher demand from India and China. and a fall in supply as agricultural land is transferred to ethanol production . Team India (That’s right. some of the forces behind rising food prices .won't go away soon. the one that’s better than Team Isreal) 12 Strikes Again .