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Trade Updates

DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

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N/U: No WTO Cred.............................................................................................................................................13
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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations Low


US-China trade relations low after Doah collapse.

Business Week, 7/30/2008, “WTO: Why India and China Said No to US”,
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jul2008/gb20080730_027680.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_global+busines
s

It's not often that China and India find themselves on the same side. They're the world's most populous countries and have two
of the fastest-growing economies, but one is ruled by a communist regime, the other by an unruly coalition government. They
don't see eye to eye about relations with the U.S. China has been a longtime supporter of Pakistan, India's bitter rival. And
Indians look enviously at China's manufacturing strength, while Chinese want to replicate India's IT services success.

Following the collapse of the latest global trade talks, though, the two Asian giants find themselves in the same boat. The
negotiations over the World Trade Organization's Doha Round of trade liberalization came to an inglorious halt July 29
amid disagreements about agricultural subsidies. The U.S. blames what it sees as intransigence on the part of India and
China. Other nations are scolding New Delhi and Beijing, too. For instance, rather than concentrating on helping to address
global concerns, India and China "focused too much on their own interests," Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka
Machimura told a news conference on July 30.
Rural Unrest Threatens India and China

The criticism may sting, but the two Asian giants aren't likely to succumb to overseas pressure. Both countries enjoy high
economic growth, thanks to overseas demand for their manufacturing and outsourcing services. At the same time, Indian and
Chinese leaders also have to worry about economic hardship in the countryside, where hundreds of millions of farmers
have struggled to compete against imports from the U.S. and other countries.

China, for instance, has been trying to alleviate pain in the countryside for several years. The economy in the country's
well-off coastal provinces has boomed, leaving behind rural areas home to some 500 million people (BusinessWeek.com,
2/16/07). When it comes to competing against American agribusiness, "Chinese household farmers are very weak," says
Wang Yong, associate professor and director of Peking University's Center for International Political Economy in Beijing.

Certainly, Chinese farmers are not able to supply all of the country's needs. Imports of soybeans, a staple of the Chinese diet,
surged 53% last year, to $11.5 billion, according to statistics from China's Agriculture Ministry. Total agricultural imports for
2007 amounted to $41 billion, a 28% increase over the previous year. While Beijing has taken some measures to ease the
burden on local farmers by reducing taxes, the imbalance still worries leaders such as President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen
Jiabao, who have talked frequently about the need to boost development in rural areas. "The government faces very serious
pressure from farmers," says Wang

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations Low


US-China trade relations low because of WTO disagreements.

Business Week, 7/30/2008, “WTO: Why India and China Said No to US”,
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jul2008/gb20080730_027680.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_global+busines
s

Preoccupied with their own rural problems, Chinese and Indian policymakers have little sympathy for the U.S. and other
countries that subsidize farmers. The Americans, Europeans, and Japanese are "asking weaker countries to dismantle
their own protection measures without doing the same in their own countries," says Shi Yinhong, a professor of
international relations at People's University in Beijing. "It's a double standard."
India, China Seem Unlikely to Back Down

The misunderstanding can go both ways, though, as people in China and India have inflated ideas about what sacrifices
foreign governments can ask of their farmers. "People in developing countries don't fully understand the difficulties of
advanced countries," Shi says. "They think rich countries have much more leeway to make [concessions] themselves."

And with the global economy hit by the American downturn, the credit squeeze, and high prices for oil, steel, and food, says
Shi, governments on both sides of the debate are worried about risking any bold moves. That means it's even less likely India
and China will back down in the current trade dispute.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations Low


US-China relations generally low because of human rights and censorship.

AFP 8/1/2008, Agence France-Presse, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hR5dvJnMcy9VMaMBalJv2cbkTTCQ


WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States on Wednesday ramped up pressure on China to live up to Olympic ideals
by ending human rights abuses, as President George W. Bush promised "nothing to fear" from Internet freedom.

With nine days remaining before the Games begin in Beijing, China sparked an uproar with its plans to censor the Internet
during the Olympics, and US lawmakers responded by passing a resolution urging China to change its ways.

"President Bush has long said that China has nothing to fear from greater access to the Internet or to the press or from more
religious freedom and human freedom and human rights," press secretary Dana Perino said.

"And that's one of the things that he talked about yesterday with the dissidents he met with, here at the White House," she said,
declining to comment directly on China's decision to reverse a pledge to allow unfettered web access for foreign press covering
the Games August 8-24.

"We want to see more access for reporters, we want to see more access for everybody in China to be able to have access to the
Internet," Perino said.

"We think that China would be enhanced and continue to prosper if they allowed for more freedom."

Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives voted 419 to 1 to endorse a resolution asking China to "immediately end
abuses of the human rights of its citizens, to cease repression of Tibetan and Uighur citizens, and to end its support for
the governments of Sudan and Burma (Myanmar)."

Such action would "ensure that the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games take place in an atmosphere that honors the Olympic
traditions of freedom and openness," the resolution said.

"In exchange for the privilege of hosting the Olympic Games, the Chinese government made commitments on freedom
of the press, human rights, and on the environment," House speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

"Any of these commitments have been violated repeatedly and blatantly."

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations Low


US-China trade relations on the brink.

Steel Guru, 8/1/2008,


http://steelguru.com/news/index/2008/07/02/NTMxNTQ%3D/China_strongly_opposes_US_AD_duties_on_pipes.html

Chinese Ministry of Commerce has strongly opposed US DOC’s recent decision to levy anti dumping and
countervailing duty on light walled rectangular pipe and tube from China.

MOC claimed that the use of anti subsidy measures infringes US rules and the tradition of not adopting anti subsidy
measures against non market economies, which has been practiced since 1984. MOC said this move is contradictory to
the World Trade Organization Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures.

It added that US Department of Commerce's false determination and calculation of the subsidies, and consecutive anti subsidy
measures against Chinese steel products, greatly hurt the interests of Chinese industry and is not acceptable to China. It said
China is studying the US determination and will act actively.

It added that the frequent requests for anti subsidy probes into Chinese exports made by US industries are not
conducive to the normal development of the bilateral trade relations.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations Low


US-China bilateral trade relations low because of WTO fiasco.

Beijing News, 7/29/2008, http://www.beijingnews.net/story/387932


World Trade Organization (WTO) talks on the conclusion of the Doha round broke off Tuesday after nine days amid
differences over opening of agriculture markets pitting the US on one side and India and China on the other.

Delegation members said the talks could be renewed in the autumn after some 40 ministers were unable tie up a compromise
package aimed at liberalising global trade after China, India and the US failed to agree on the farm import rules.

'The talks have taken a very disappointing turn,' said US trade representative Susan Schwab, while German delegation leader
Berndt Pfaffenbach said: 'It came as a surprise, and we failed to finalise things today because of major differences which did
not stem from Europe.'

The talks launched seven years ago in Doha were seen as crucial to future world trade - aimed as they were at
remedying inequality so that the developing world could benefit more from freer trade.

The European Union earlier Tuesday had appealed to delegations to find an agreement, with EU Trade Commissioner Peter
Mandelson warning of a 'terrifying prospect' if the talks were to fail.

His appeal came as opinions appeared to be divided among the WTO parties over the issue of opening of agriculture markets,
which had appeared to have been resolved in a compromise reached last Friday.

The row escalated when India and China refused in particular to further open their agriculture markets, not wanting to entirely
weaken the applicable mechanisms protecting their farmers.

The two countries, saying they are speaking for some 100 developing countries, argued for a customs arrangement to protect
farmers in poor countries against excessively high food imports.

Amid the impasse, Indonesian Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said nobody wanted the current WTO talks to be broken off,
while Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim urged the WTO participants to shoulder their political responsibility.

The differences have pitted the US on one side and India and China on the other.

US representative Schwab accused the two countries of undermining the hard-fought compromise package, saying the
US had made great concessions especially in regard to removing its cotton subsidies.

Some WTO representatives however sympathized with the two developing countries, saying that in light of the still
enormous numbers of poor that China and India have to care for, agricultural and food security in these countries had
to be strengthened, not weakened by cheap imports.

A large portion of poorer developing countries supported the Indian-Chinese position

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations High


US-China relations high now.

China View, 8/1/2008, “Bush: US-China Relations ‘Good’ and ‘Important’”, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-
08/01/content_8885617.htm

WASHINGTON, July 31 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President George W. Bush said Wednesday that U.S.-China relations are good
and important, and he is "honored" to be invited to attend the Beijing Olympics.

"The fact that both countries are honoring the 30th anniversary of the relationship is a statement about good
relations," he told reporters from China, South Korea and Thailand at the White House ahead of his upcoming trip to the three
countries.

Also, the fact that both China and the United States are opening new embassies in each other's capitals is "a signal of
how important the relationship is," Bush added.

Bush said that during his stay in Beijing, he would attend the opening ceremony of the new U.S. embassy, together with his
father, former U.S. President George H. W. Bush.

"Isn't that interesting, two new embassies open the same year, obviously to celebrate the 30th anniversary of what has been a
very important relationship," he said.

In retrospect of the development of U.S.-China relationship during his presidency, the president said two things are
most important.

One is that he and the Chinese leaders have forged a good personal relationship featured by "sincerity and honesty," as
they have met many times during Bush's tenure.

Secondly, the two nations have worked hard to put strategic economic dialogues in place in a bid to broaden and
enhance bilateral relations.

To some extent, the president said, China and the United States have become increasingly interdependent as their
relationship is becoming more and more interwoven, particularly in the economic field.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations High


Economic and political relations between US and China on the rise.

China View, 7/30/2008, “Chinese FM meets with Bush on constructive bilateral relations”,
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/30/content_8845510.htm

WASHINGTON, July 29 (Xinhua) -- Visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and U.S. President George W. Bush
met at the White House on Tuesday, agreeing to push forward with the constructive and cooperative relations between
the two countries.

During the meeting, Yang hailed the great development that two countries have achieved in the past seven years in
enhancing China-U.S. relations, which he said also contributed to the peace, stability and development of the Asia-
Pacific region and the world.

He noted that Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Bush have set the direction for the future development of bilateral
relations during their meeting held at the sidelines of the Hokkaido G8 summit in Japan earlier this month.

China is willing to work with the United States to follow the direction and push forward with the constructive and
cooperative relations between the two countries, Yang added.

For his part, Bush told the visiting Chinese top diplomat that he is glad to see China-U.S. relations developing on a
favorable momentum that the United States is committing to maintaining, and he also appreciates a good working
relationship built with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

On the coming Olympic games in Beijing, Yang expressed his welcome to Bush, who is set to attend the opening ceremony,
and wished American athletes excellent performance in the competitions.

Bush said, in return, that he looks forward to visiting China to attend the Olympic games' opening ceremony.

On the issues of human rights and religion, Yang told the U.S. president that China would like to continue to
exchange its views with the United States on basis of equality, mutual respect and non-interference in each other's
domestic affairs, as a way to promote mutual understanding.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

US-China Relations High


US and China cooperating on trade.

China Daily, 7/10/2008, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/sports/2008-07/10/content_6832657.htm


Bush's wish to be present at the Games proves he values the friendship between the Chinese and American peoples, Hu said.

Hu said Sino-US relations have maintained a good momentum. The two countries have been collaborating in many
fields, including trade and commerce, energy, environmental protection and anti-terrorism.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

WTO Credibility Low


WTO Credibility on the brink because of Doha collapse.

New York Times, 7/30/2008,


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/business/worldbusiness/30trade.html?em&ex=1217649600&en=d0b39485b2f55783&ei=5087%
0A

After nine consecutive days of high-level talks, discussions reached an impasse when the United States, India and China
refused to compromise over measures to protect farmers in developing countries from greater liberalization of trade.

Supporters of the so-called Doha round of talks, which began in 2001, say a deal would have been a bulwark against
protectionist sentiments that are likely to spread as economic growth falters in much of the world.

The failure also delivers a blow to the credibility of the World Trade Organization, which sets and enforces the rules of
international commerce. It could set back efforts to work out other multilateral agreements, including those intended to
reduce the threat of global warming.

The collapse of the talks will not bring an end to world trade, of course, which will continue under current agreements,
many of which are between two or more countries rather than under the W.T.O.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

WTO Credibility Low


WTO credibility low after talks collapse.

Washington Post, 7/30/2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-


dyn/content/article/2008/07/29/AR2008072900556.html?hpid=sec-business

International talks aimed at ushering in a new era of free trade collapsed in Geneva yesterday during a bitter split
between developed and developing countries over the future shape of global commerce.

The failure of the talks after nine days of intense negotiations underscored what is likely to be the biggest challenge in
coming years to expanding world trade: the reluctance of emerging juggernauts such as India and China to risk their
newfound success by offering rich nations greater access to the hundreds of millions of consumers rising out of poverty
in the developing world.

High-level delegations from the United States and the European Union showed fresh willingness at the World Trade
Organization talks to make concessions that would have gradually curbed the subsidies and tariffs they have long
employed to protect First World farmers. But India and China dug in their heels, insisting on the right to keep
protecting their farmers while accusing the United States and other rich countries of exaggerating the generosity of their
concessions.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

WTO Credibility Low


WTO credibility is on the brink-now is the key time.

Oxford Analytica, 8/1/08, independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar
experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world.
http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/07/31/wto-lamy-doha-biz-cx_0801oxford.html

The collapse of those talks has raised doubts about whether the postwar model of successive, giant multilateral trade
negotiations is still viable.

Implications for the WTO. The WTO's reputation as a forum for negotiation will suffer from the Doha breakdown.
Immense effort and political commitment have been invested in the Round over a period of nearly 10 years.
(Preparations for what was tentatively called the Millennium Round go back to 1999, and include the WTO's disastrous Seattle
meeting that year.)

The previous Uruguay Round ended nearly 15 years ago. Its results have long been in force. Governments will inevitably ask
whether limits have now been reached on what can be achieved in negotiating on such sensitive issues as agriculture,
and whether a more productive method cannot be found to open up world markets, help developing countries' trade
and keep trade rules up to date.

Trade disputes. The WTO's role in settling trade disputes will become more important then ever. Negotiation is generally
preferable to litigation, since it can open up trade opportunities where none existed. However, if there is no choice, resort to the
WTO's binding dispute procedures can show impressive results. There are two current examples:

--China has just suffered its first defeat in a dispute with a ruling that it has treated imported car parts unfairly.

--A Doha Round issue is being pursued in a dispute in which the U.S. is having to defend itself against charges of illegally
subsidizing its cotton producers.

In the longer run, WTO rules could become increasingly irrelevant if the trend toward bilateral and regional agreements
continues to accelerate. (However, in the U.S. public resistance to trade liberalization of any kind will discourage further such
agreements.)

Wider implications. Two wider implications can be drawn from the failure:

--No new liberalization. Even a successful Doha Round would have stimulated trade flows only after 2011. There is little
evidence as yet that its failure will further damage public confidence at a difficult time for the world economy. However,
business sentiment in exporting countries and government plans for economic development will not be helped by the loss of
prospective far-reaching cuts in protective duties and subsidies affecting trade in goods and services.

--Reduced faith in multilateral agreements? Lamy and others have already suggested that failure in the Doha Round
may make it harder to reach multilateral agreements on non-trade issues such as global warming. This too seems
improbable, though the Doha failure will not help.

Only a slim possibility remains of resurrecting the Doha Round, particularly if the U.S. elections result in a president and
Congress doubtful that trade liberalization serves U.S. interests. A long period of stalemate in international trade relations may
now lie ahead.

Against a global background of economic difficulty, protectionist pressures are likely to increase. They will make headway
more easily in the absence of concerted government efforts to roll back trade barriers and distortions.

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

N/U: No WTO Cred


WTO trade credibility has collapsed after Geneva breakdown.

New York Times, 7/19/2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/19/business/worldbusiness/19trade.html?ref=europe


According to the European Union negotiator, Peter Mandelson, a failure in Geneva would make agreement impossible for
at least two years and harm multilateral negotiations on other topics like climate change.

If talks collapse, there will be another casualty: the credibility of the World Trade Organization itself.

Even if ministers agree on the outline of a deal, some wonder whether this might be the last negotiation of this kind. With
economic power distributed more equally around the globe, world trade negotiations have become as cumbersome as they are
slow.

“The question,” said Joe Guinan, a trade expert with the German Marshall Fund, a public policy group, “is whether rounds of
trade negotiations that take around a decade can keep pace with the economic changes. The answer is probably not.”

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Trade Updates
DDI 2008 BQ
Luke

N/U: No WTO Cred


Geneva collapse destroyed WTO credibility.

Marketwatch, 7/29/2008, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hoffa-says-wto-trade-talks/story.aspx?guid=%7BF586ED6F-


370D-40C8-B8D7-F44CBB2FC3F6%7D&dist=hppr

Once again, the Doha round of global trade discussions have collapsed -- a glaring sign that it is time to finally let the
World Trade Organization negotiations officially end. It is time to replace the failed WTO model with a new and fair
model of trade that benefits the majority of workers in the United States and across the globe.

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