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States DAs

DDI 2008 BQ
Steve Quam

States DAs
States DAs...............................................................................................................................................................1
California DA.........................................................................................................................................................2
Cali – DA.................................................................................................................................................................3
Cali – DA.................................................................................................................................................................4
Cali – Uniqueness...................................................................................................................................................5
AT: Mercury News Evidence.................................................................................................................................6
AT: LA Times Evidence.........................................................................................................................................7
AT: Sacramento Bee Evidence..............................................................................................................................8
AT: Spending Good 4 Econ...................................................................................................................................9
Texas DA...............................................................................................................................................................10
Texas – The Disadvantage...................................................................................................................................11
Texas – The Disadvantage...................................................................................................................................12
Texas Uniqueness.................................................................................................................................................13

Notes:
I just included the DAs that BQ worked on.

Thanks to Sam Fishell for the Cali Cards.

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States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam California DA 2 .

o The final deal will include some tax increases. There is just no way they are going to close a $15 billion gap with spending cuts and tax increases alone. that maxim no longer holds.mercurynews. The budget was due July 1 but is still being negotiated by the governor and legislative leaders." 7/31/08 SACRAMENTO -. Los Angeles Times. Nancy Vogel and Michael Rothfeld." If Democrats were to accept a strict limit on future spending. I would not be surprised if a scaled-down version of the governor's plan emerged as part of this package.com. Arnold Schwarzenegger today ordered his administration to lay off thousands of part-time state workers and to work with the state controller to temporarily slash the pay of most full-time employees to the federal minimum wage of $6. staff writer for the Sacramento Bee. for instance. but then be stymied for days or even weeks over a disagreement on details. Daniel Weintraub. staff writers.55 an hour.com/opinion/ci_10065195 It used to be said that state leaders couldn't get a budget deal until the temperatures in the capital city topped 100 degrees. "Governor slashes workers' pay. The worst-kept secret in the Capitol is that at least a handful of Republicans are prepared to accept some tax increases in exchange for what they call "budget reform. "Chaotic scene in state capital usually means budget is near. It's common for the party leaders to have the framework of an agreement. So expect some gimmicks. Lawmakers. whenever it comes. Here's my best guess: o It is going to include some borrowing. the majority party could probably get enough Republican votes to pass a sales tax increase." Schwarzenegger said after signing an executive order. Also.pay cuts gave the state just enough money to avoid crisis until budget is implemented. they're getting close to a deal. But by listening to the legislative leaders talk and tapping into the chatter in the Capitol hallways." 8/1/08. you can begin to sense what a new budget agreement might look like. Now it's more accurate to say that the opposing sides won't agree until everybody watching them pretty much concludes that they are on the verge of a partisan meltdown. http://www. But the Democrats won't go there because such a limit would constrain growth in government services during the next economic expansion 3 . In other words. even an outline of a new budget plan.fiscal discipline key to passing sales tax increase. a top priority for Republicans. "I don't think any governor wants to be in this situation. might find a way to tap into local government funds.Gov. That's not the same as closing the deal. the governor's proposal to borrow against future state lottery earnings is still very much alive. MercuryNews. Schwarzenegger administration officials said the move will help give the state enough cash to get by until a state budget is signed.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Cali – DA California spending on the brink ." New California spending tanks the deal . "It is a terrible situation to be in. But since the coming of air conditioning.

28-30. “Who’s Dragging Down Who?”. http://theamericashow. Government. can screw it up. "Depending on the Kindness of Strangers. government impacts individual preferences by increasing the price of one product or service (or decreasing another). 4 . California Assembly member representing Riverside and Temecula. China. however. Given these facts. Government at any level can’t do much to help the economy. World Policy Institute." New Perspectives Quarterly 9. and government subsidies. Using tax and regulatory policy. former Senior Fellow for U. and powerful economic actor is important not just to those of us who live here. rich against poor. When California’s economy hiccups. and the economy shrinks. 9-2-2003. diverse.html I think it is important people know what is happening in California government. California constitutes ten per cent of the entire national economy. it would be important to cover any government function that affects ten per cent of the economy. A large.S. we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North. but to those who walk the halls of Washington power as well. government causes the economy to falter. it causes a national economic earthquake. Jobs are lost. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Russia. If these preferred activities aren’t beneficial to the economy as a whole. 1992. One in seven people who live in the United States live in California.net/archives/Columns/Haynes/20030902HaynesDragging. Hundreds of millions – billions – of people have pinned their hopes on the international market economy. and shifting limited social resources to government-preferred activities. They and their leaders have embraced market principles – and drawn closer to the west – because they believe that our system can work for them.3 (Summer 1992) pp.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Cali – DA California is key to the US economy Ray Haynes. Sacramento should be the focus of a lot of media attention. But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates – or even shrinks? In that case. Economic collapse leads to global nuclear war Walter Russell Mead. people are hurt. The economy is driven by people’s needs and the endless effort of private companies to meet those needs. India – these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the 30s. and it is the fifth (or sixth or seventh or eighth) largest economy in the world (our ranking shrinks each year Davis stays in office).

'Line in the sand' However.mercurynews. locking in higher levels of spending that could not be sustained when the economy cooled again.which is no idle threat since at least some GOP votes would be needed to pass both the budget and any new taxes. mostly by adding higher income tax rates for upper-income taxpayers." Bass said. a Republican point man on the budget. described it as "a massive tax increase in a very weak economy" and "a dysfunctional solution. "This budget defines what Democrats say we need to do to keep California on an even keel. and Republicans rejecting them as damaging to the state's struggling economy. an economic recovery could send revenues soaring in a few years. The ideological warriors have been sparring for years. financed largely with new taxes. with the structural deficit magnified by recession. the stage is set for a cage fight. very conservative Republicans and no more than a handful of even semi-moderates . unable to pay the bills it could legally pay and probably forced to float a short-term.com/opinion/ci_9848677) If nothing else. Arnold Schwarzenegger had proposed in May. this year. but I'm against tax increases. So.into razor-sharp focus. Under fixed spending formulas. Assemblyman Roger Niello of Sacramento. but it restores many of the spending reductions that Gov. the California budget imbroglio has brought the Capitol's stark ideological conflict . 5 . Republicans say. tiresome wrangle to at least a semi-permanent conclusion." But he and other GOP lawmakers haven't been willing to get specific on their spending cuts.California’s budget is on the brink of collapse – increased spending devastates regulations San Jose Mercury News 7-11-2008 (http://www. And where's the governor? This vague reaction implies that he's wandering in no-man's land as legislators prepare for political war: "You have to be open-minded. I'm open-minded. makes the Democratic budget a non-starter .2 billion a year. mostly on business and the affluent." Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata said Wednesday as he and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass described their budget. the lack of a budget is less important than bringing this perpetual. And that wouldn't be such a bad thing. as a "line in the sand. and that's the only way we can get a compromise done." "We can't cut any more. high-interest loan." The Democratic budget not only raises taxes by $8. Democrats contend their budget does that with billions of dollars in permanent new taxes. but each year have avoided a toe-to-toe slugfest over taxes and permanent spending cuts by conjuring up new accounting gimmicks or ways to borrow money. California will run out of cash in another month or so. But despite the hoopla. especially for education. to cover much of the state's whopping budget deficit.very liberal Democrats vs. And that. the dueling factions seem poised to settle it once and for all. no matter how long it takes." Without a budget.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Cali – Uniqueness Uniqueness and Internal Link . With the Democrats now insisting on more than $8 billion in new taxes. But if enacted. it could spawn even worse problems because it increases the state's reliance on volatile income taxes on the affluent. "We don't want another temporary fix.

it proves that cali’s econ is on the edge now.) There evidence doesn’t actually conclude anything about California’s economy overall. it just says that some areas have had job losses. The article even concludes that key area such as tech have had growth. 3.) The evidence goes our way.) Even if cali’s in a mild recession it’s key to prevent total economic collapse. 2.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam AT: Mercury News Evidence 1. 6 .

The counterplan would force California to borrow even more money. The evidence is great uniqueness indicating that cali can’t increase it’s spending. 7 .) This evidence flows aff – The article says that California will have to borrow money from other sectors and then pay it back.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam AT: LA Times Evidence 1. which would devastate the California economy.

history says a thorough revamp won't pass easily.) Their evidence concludes that tax wouldn’t be enough to offset. 7-20-2008.html A quick overhaul of the tax structure isn't likely. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Karen Bass want to form a blue-ribbon commission to study the tax code. The Sacramento Bee. And even once the commission gets going.) Any tax change wouldn’t come quickly enough.sacbee. http://www. “Some see taxing more services as way to ease California budget crunch”. 2. that won't happen until after the current budget is passed. and may face fierce resistance in the Legislature. The idea of broadening the sales tax base has been floated before without much success. Although Gov. 8 .com/111/story/1095533.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam AT: Sacramento Bee Evidence 1.

our evidence is on point that the current deal is key to prevent a financial crisis.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam AT: Spending Good 4 Econ 1. The CP trades off tanking the cali econ. 9 .) Your evidence doesn’t assume the current situation in California.

States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Texas DA 10 .

b. So most Texas banks have less exposure to the implosion.ART. and had a lower proportion of past-due loans. Brendan Case Staff Writer for the Dallas Morning News 7/21/08 “Troubled economy has Texans recalling banking collapse of the '80s” http://www. To meet the Department of Energy's goal of making ethanol 30 percent of the U.Edition2. rising energy prices also fuel royalty payments and activity by the state's oil and gas industry.) The Texas economy is holding.State.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Texas – The Disadvantage a. it will take $500 billion in infrastructure investments. "Texas is probably as pristine a market as there is in the nation right now in terms of loan performance and asset quality. Texas is gaining jobs while the nation as a whole is losing them. Moreover. Arvizu projected." he said. upwards of 300 banks could fail. have about $255 billion in assets.html What does Mr. despite the influx of venture money into the field and the strong demand for technologies such as solar. Even if oil doesn't drop that low. Mr. Meanwhile.4d58396. according to Randall James. “Why it's not easy being green”. If oil drops below $55 a barrel. but increased spending will push it over the edge. commissioner of the Texas Department of Banking. we were in far worse shape in '90 and '91 than the banking industry today. 1/24/2007. "Over the next three years. Banks here saw a slight deterioration in credit quality during the first three months of the year. it will cost a lot to get an ethanol-solar-wind society off the ground.html BB Second.S." There's no guarantee that some failures won't occur in Texas. subprime mortgage mess and economic downturn rolled into one. where more than 600 banks. most of them small. regulatory reports as of March 31 showed that the banks were outperforming the national average.cnet. managing director of Austin-based Sheshunoff & Co. installing an alternative-energy infrastructure isn't cheap.dallasnews. Reviving memories Perhaps wisdom gleaned from the 1980s helped a bit. hence its current housing downturn is much milder than the bust in bubble states such as California and Florida. Cassidy see now? More trouble – but he believes the situation is less dire than in the early '90s. Texas missed out on much of the housing bubble. Investment Banking. But a string of banking failures – even elsewhere – is sure to revive memories of the 1980s. Even as Texas consumers struggle with soaring gasoline prices and some of the priciest electricity in the nation. fuel manufacturers will have to invest $100 billion in refineries. 11 . "But from a bank failure standpoint and an industry collapse standpoint.. most biofuel concepts will be unprofitable. however. http://news. Carpenter said." said Curtis Carpenter. when the state was today's housing bust. transportation fuel budget.S.com/Why-its-not-easy- being-green/2100-11395_3-6152851. Staff Writer for CNET. On average.) Alternative Energy costs billions Michael Kanellos. To make wind power 20 percent of the source of the electricity in the U.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN- BankCrash_21bus.

NEW PERSPECTIVES But what if it can’t? What if the global economy stagnates—or even shrink In that case. the Texas economy has many facets. Russia. industry. economy Texas Workforce Comission.us/iSocrates/Files/TexasEconomy2002. 1992.States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Texas – The Disadvantage c. we will face a new period of international conflict: South against North.  The following sections will address the question of where growth.) Texas’ economic collapse spills over to us economy— Texas’ economy mirrors u. September. and projected changes have occurred in Texas  from a demographic. for example. such as the state of Texas or particular regions within it. “The texas economy: an age of global economic opportunity”.s. and earnings perspective. Employment growth or decline can be discussed  in terms of geographic region. Today. rich against poor. decline. geographic. an economy driven by Oil and Gas. fellow.state.S. Consider just one part. occupational. such as job growth. job growth can be viewed as both percentage change and as absolute change. India—these countries with their billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and Japan did in the ‘30s. http://socrates. 2002. Moreover. Like the U. It can also be viewed in terms of  industries or specific occupations.pdf In years past.  d. After all. 12 . Council on Foreign Relations. economy. however. China. the Texas economy mirrors the U. related industrial sectors and other natural resources moved almost counter-cyclically to the national economy. conversations about national economic trends or phenomena might have been viewed as of secondary concern to Texans.) Economic stagnation leads to nuclear war Walter Russel Mead.cdr.S. "where has the growth been?" the answer is not  always obvious. When the question is asked. economy much more closely and national and global trends have a greater bearing on the direction and economic health of the state.tx.

"This economy is about as good as it gets. 'The risk is not so much the prices of the homes themselves. "Richard Fisher.” http://findarticles. Harvey Rosenblum told real estate developers at a conference Wednesday in Dallas. but worries about overbuilding and an economic slowdown still have property investors and developers looking over their shoulders. it's the loans being made on the homes.dallasnews. "The real question in everybody's mind is how long will it last?" The Texas economy continues to confound prognosticators. May 1999 “Overbuilding. where irresponsible or downright fraudulent lenders are trying to find unethical appraisers to work with them. 'largely because of the hit that telecom.com/p/articles/mi_hb5553/is_199905/ai_n22401181 . Steve Brown.'" "And yet 'builders just keep building.' said David Houston. Staff Writer for Knight Ridder. The danger I see here is that people are buying so much more home than they can afford. "Jim Pearson of Pearson Appraisal Co. it is strictly a function of the easy money.'" If that is the case. but increased spending could send it down the drain. noted that many areas of Texas have seen resurging economic growth..States DAs DDI 2008 BQ Steve Quam Texas Uniqueness The Texas economy is currently rebounding. Dallas was not one of them.'" "What will happen when those loans are stress-tested. if interest rates rise?" 13 . if the national economy falters. technology and aviation took. 'The weakest spot is North Texas. 'This is where you're seeing a lot of the problems." Federal Reserve economist Dr. The Texas economy is on the edge right now. Fisher said. if the local economy doesn't improve.Texas' real estate market is rebounding from last fall's numbing credit crunch. Economic Concerns Make Texas Real Estate Experts Wary. Danielle DiMartino Staff writer for The Dallas Morning News 5/19/2005 “Its all building to a fall” http://www.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/052005dnbusdimartino.htm l The next piece on the Dallas market from Danielle DiMartino is online.' Mr.c486ed70. president of the Dallas Federal Reserve.