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TOC

TOC.............................................................................. ...............................1
The Strat Sheet......................................................................... ...................2
AT: Utah – Non U................................................................................. ..........3
AT: Montana................................................................................... ..............6
AT: Montana................................................................................... ..............7
XT: Montana – Renewables Popular............................................................. ...8
AT: Michigan – Non U......................................... ...........................................9
AT: Michigan – Alt Cause............................................................................ ..10
XT: Auto Industry Will Live.............................................. ............................11
AT: California...................................................................................... ........12
XT: Cali Econ Screwed................................................................ .................13
XT: Econ will fix itself.......................................................................... ........14
Alt Energy Unpopular – Generic ....................... ...........................................15
Alternative Energy Popular – Texas ............................... ..............................16
Alternative Energy Popular – California ......................... ..............................17

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The Strat Sheet

Ok, so I cut some rough answers to the DA’s that were included in the states file. Most of them
should be easily beatable just by reading the evidence and pointing out the missing internal
links.
More specific notes on each one:

Utah:
You probably won’t hit this DA, because the plan links to it just as hard as the counter plan. The
link is based on the effects of an emissions cap on coal plants in Utah. The emissions cap will
affect the coal plants in the same way whether it is implemented at a national level, or a state-
by-state level. If you do hit this DA, I think it would be really badass to concede it, and then kick
out of the CP and go for it as a DA to the aff. Anyway, I put in a few defensive cards just in case
someone changes the scenario to actually make it link.

Montana:
This DA says that the plan is unpopular, which stops Brian Schweitzer, (Montana’s Current
Governor) from being re-elected. Schweitzer is supposedly key to stopping British Columbia from
building a coal plant on the Flathead River. This coal plant would harm BioD and our friend Diner
does the rest. The main problem with this DA is the internal link. First of all, it says that
Schweitzer is one of two people leading a campaign to stop the coal plant, so the other guy could
probably still do it. Secondly, the card only says that coal will kill a few fish; it never says that it
will result in species loss. The Diner card is specific to the loss of species.

Michigan:
This one is saying that environmental regs hurt the business confidence of the auto industry. This
suffers from the same problem as the Utah DA in that the regulations would probably hurt the
business confidence no matter whether they were enacted on a federal or a state level. The tag
of their hubbard tries to make the argument that state regulations are key but the card doesn’t
say that.
Other problems with this scenario are that virtually every aff deals with the coal/natural gas
sector, and regulations on those companies probably won’t affect car companies.

California:
This is definitely the best scenario that was included with the file. I think the best arg here is that
the uniqueness overwhelms the link, because the California economy really is fucked.

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AT: Utah – Non U

1. Despite struggles, Utah’s coal industry isn’t threatened

Platts Coal Outlook 4-14-2008, Lexis

With the closure of UtahAmerican's Tower complex and Crandall Canyon mine, Utah's coal
production took a significant hit, but Michael Vanden Berg, a geologist with the Utah
Geological Survey, is not worried about the state's ability to meet demand for its coal.
Vanden Berg said the production loss from the closing of the Tower mine will be made up by
other mines. "Some of the mines had plans to slow production, and these plans might change
now," he said.

Intermountain Power Agency "will most likely be affected, but should be able to get more coal
from other sources in Utah," he said. "Other companies that use Tower coal shouldn't have
trouble filling their coal needs from other Utah mines." IPA had used Crandall Canyon coal
until the mine closed, and then it moved to the Tower complex. Now, it will get coal from West
Ridge, also a UtahAmerican mine. CW Mining's Bear Canyon mine in Emery County started
longwall production in the fall of 2007 and "this will likely triple their output," Vanden
Berg said. A full year of longwall production in 2008 should yield roughly 1.5 million st. Overall
Utah production should remain near 25 million st in 2008, even with the closing of Tower,
according to Vanden Berg's latest estimates. "The market for Utah coal seems to have slowed as
of late, according to the operators, and this is contrary to the eastern coal market, which is
booming," Vanden Berg said. "The main reason cited is very limited transportation out of Utah to
hotter markets." With plans for new coal plants being scrapped in Utah, "the Utah coal
market will only remain steady and is not expected to increase in the near future."

2. This DA links to the plan just as much as the counterplan. National regulations would have the same effect on the
coal industry as state level regulations.

3. Utah’s economy isn’t going anywhere but down

Forbes, 7-18-2008, “Report: Utah revenue down $112M from forecast”,


http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/07/18/ap5231029.html

SALT LAKE CITY - An economic downturn has led to a $112 million shortfall in the
Utah budget. A preliminary revenue report released by the Utah State Tax
Commission on Friday shows that income from sales taxes, income taxes and fuel
taxes is less than lawmakers expected. A final revenue report is expected to be released
in August. Gov. Jon Huntsman's spokeswoman, Lisa Roskelley, said there are no immediate
plans for a special session to address the budget. Lawmakers prepared for an economic

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downturn before they adjourned March 5 because the nation's economy was
already weakening.

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4. XT: Utah Econ Screwed


Utah’s economy is shrinking in the status quo

The Salt Lake Tribune 7-15-2008, “Utah job growth at 5-year low as construction work dips”,
http://origin.sltrib.com/ci_9888282

Employment growth in Utah has slowed to a crawl, dipping below the 1 percent mark
last month for the first time in five years. The state's economy added only 11,500 new jobs
in the year that ended in June for an employment growth rate of 0.9 percent, the Utah
Department of Workforce Services said today. That's down from 1.3 percent in the year that
ended in May and down significantly from a peak of 5.4 percent in the year that ended in June
2006, when the state's economy added 54,000 jobs. Utah's economy, once a stellar
outperformer nationally, is now moving closer to the national average, which in June
totaled a negative 0.1 percent.

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AT: Montana
1. Their Globe and Mail evidence says that Schweitzer is one of two key people to stopping
the coal plant, even if he loses the senator can still keep up the fight.

2. Schweitzer Supports Alternative Energy Already.


Five Minutes With: Governor Brian Schweitzer, 5-3-07

We want to protect that, so when Washington, D.C. has notions about coming out here and digging up all of Montana and
drilling wells everyplace that we’ve got across the state, saying, “Well, we need your energy and we’re willing to sacrifice your
backyard,” folks in Montana say, “No, I don’t think so.” We could produce our energy with alternative energy; We don’t
want you to destroy our backyard.

You’ve been very involved in promoting alternative energy.

The whole great plains were electrified with diversified, clean, and green energy. All the farms had wind turbines; they all had
batteries in their basements. And then this new plan came in and copper wires arrived at all the farms and small towns and they
were hooked to a coal plant 1,000 miles away.

Now we’re trying to figure out how we can get back to clean and green energy. We were there 75 years ago. Of
course we can produce our own electricity with solar and wind power and other sources. Of course we can do it,
because we have done it before. Unless we get serious, unless we start capturing the carbon that’s coming from the
coal fired plants that we have in America today—they produce 50 percent of the electricity in America—we are going to
increase the CO2 in our atmosphere by another 200 parts per million. The consequences of that are going to be just
extraordinary in this country and around the world. What we need is Congress to get serious. We need a system
that rewards those who decrease their carbon footprint and a system that
penalizes those who increase their carbon footprint. We need $10 billion in a private-public
partnership of research and development during the next five years, spent solely on carbon capture and carbon sequestration
technology. Unless we get serious about it in this country, it’ll be too late not only for the next generation, but the current
generation.

3. The Globe and Mail card only says that coal will kill a few fish; it never says that it will
result in species loss. The Diner card is specific to the loss of species.

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AT: Montana

4. The Government Suspended funding for coal plants in Montana. The plant will
never get built.

ENS (Environmental News Service) 3-5-08


The federal government is suspending its loan program for new coal plants in
rural communities. The Rural Utility Service announced today that due in part to uncertainty over
litigation, it will not fund new coal plants in 2008 and 2009.

A branch of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Rural Utility Service provides low-cost financing to rural
electric cooperatives. It has issued more than $1.3 billion in loans for new plant construction since 2001.

The Rural Utility Service announcement reverses a position the agency took last May when it said it would
process a loan application to fund 85 percent of a proposed coal-fire power plant near Great Falls, Montana, at
an estimated cost of $600 million.

In July 2007, Earthjustice filed a lawsuit challenging Rural Utility Service financing of the Montana power
plant, citing the agency's failure to consider the global warming implications of financing new coal plants.

American coal-fired power plants currently pump two billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
annually, which exceed the greenhouse gas emissions from any other source.

"This is a big decision. It says new coal plants can't go to the federal government for money
at least for the next couple years, and these are make or break times to get these
plants built," said Earthjustice attorney Abigail Dillen, based in Montana.

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XT: Montana – Renewables Popular

Alternative energy’s publicly popular – majority wants renewables.


By LINDSAY RENICK MAYER, the money-in-politics reporter for the Center for Responsive Politics, Big Oil, Big Influence,
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/347/oil-politics.html 8-1-08

With members of Congress paying special attention to Big Oil, the policy that elected representatives have developed does not
reflect the interest of the public, which wants "affordable, reliable, clean sources of energy," Slocum says. A 2006 survey
by the Pew Research Center found a majority of Americans across the political spectrum want an energy policy that
emphasizes renewable and alternative sources of energy.

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AT: Michigan – Non U


1. The auto industry in Michigan is on the upswing – GM proves

TOM WALSH • FREE PRESS COLUMNIST • August 1, 2008

Meanwhile, there are signs that the worst may be over for GM:
• Costs associated with a 12-week UAW strike at American Axle should now be in GM's rearview
mirror.
• The damage to GM from the nearly 2-year-old Chapter 11 bankruptcy saga of Delphi, GM's
former parts operation, has yet to be fully tallied. Delphi hasn't emerged yet from bankruptcy but
should recede as a major drag on GM after this year.
• Eighteen of GM's next 19 product launches will be cars or crossover vehicles with
much better fuel economy than the models they're replacing.
And GM's global overhaul of its product development system should allow the
company to react more rapidly to changes in market demand. An early example: The
compact Chevrolet Cruze, a much more fuel-efficient successor to the current Cobalt, will be
unveiled at the Paris auto show in September and built at the Lordstown, Ohio, plant.
Yes, the realist in me understands that GM is still burning through more cash than it's generating
at current sales levels.
The obstinate optimist, however, believes that the tide eventually will turn and that GM has
enough cash and available credit, if carefully shepherded, to see that day come.

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AT: Michigan – Alt Cause

2. Alternate Causality: The auto industry is will collapse because of the housing crisis. – This is the beginning
half of their card.

New York Times, 5-27-2008, "Auto Industry Feels the Pain of Tight Credit”,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/business/27auto.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&sq=Auto%20In
dustry%20Feels%20the%20Pain%20of%20Tight%20Credit&st=cse&scp=1

The auto industry is getting sideswiped by the housing crisis.

Auto lenders and banks, closing their wallets, have prevented hundreds of thousands of consumers from obtaining the
financing for a car. Home equity loans, which had been used in at least one of every nine deals, when lenders were more generous,
are no longer a source of easy money for many prospective buyers. And used-car prices have fallen nearly 6 percent as repossessed
cars and gas-guzzling trucks and S.U.V.’s flood auction lots.

Those forces, on top of the softening economy, are putting enormous pressure on the American auto industry as it faces what
may be its worst year in more than a decade. About 15 million vehicles are expected to be sold in 2008, down from 16.2 million
last year, as sales reach the lowest levels since 1995, according to the marketing firm J. D. Power & Associates.

The impact on the broader American economy could be profound. Not only is the car a consumer’s biggest purchase after the home,
but the auto industry remains one of nation’s most important economic engines. With less money available to bolster the industry’s
growth, the businesses that support it are also facing the prospect of a sharp slowdown.

“It is a bleak picture, and it all hinges on the availability of financing,” said William Ryan, a financial analyst at Portales Partners who
has followed the auto business for years. “The whole universe related to the auto industry is touched in some way — parts suppliers,
manufacturers, salespeople, trucking people, the paint and metals industries. Even semiconductors.”

Within the auto sector, problems stemming from the continuing tightening of credit have already started to spread. Auto lenders like
Chase, Capital One and GMAC are finding it harder and more expensive to obtain money for loans. Profits also look dimmer as the
lenders absorb losses from defaults and pull back from making new loans.

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XT: Auto Industry Will Live

Investors looking for a profit will bail out automakers if stocks sink too low
Business Week Online 7-3-2008, “Kicking the Tires at Ford Motor”, Lexis

(F). The automaker's stock, which sold as high as 67 a share some 10 years ago, tumbled to
a new low of 4.95 on Mar. 17, 2008. It has since inched up to 6.75 as of May 30, but that's still
an awfully low price. At that price -- less than the cost of two gallons of gasoline -- Ford stock is a
fire-sale bargain.

Don't take it from me. Listen to a person who knows the auto industry well: activist and veteran
investor Kirk Kerkorian, who intends to buy more Ford shares to add to his current 4.62% stake in
the company -- at a higher price. And bear in mind, if the stock continues to wallow at this
depressed level, expect at least one more activist investor to jump in, according to
some Street sources.

One hedge fund manager, who declined to be named, makes this observation: "Ford is a
natural target for the activist fund managers -- it has a huge brand name known
worldwide, in an industry that has been smacked down but whose prospects would be
enormous once the U.S. economy recovers from its current malaise." This pro also points to new
products in Ford's pipeline that should lift the company toward a recovery when they
hit the market, and to "serious and determined" efforts by management to turn the ailing
company around. The manager predicts that one or two other activist players are eyeballing the
situation very closely and could pounce on the stock at any time.

The auto industry can survive – recovery has already begun


Business Week Online 7-3-2008, “Kicking the Tires at Ford Motor”, Lexis

At its current price, Ford's stock is "an absolute steal, considering Ford's assets, growth
prospects when the economy turns around, and the aggressive turnaround efforts of
management being pursued by CEO Alan Mulally," says Georges Yared, founder and chief
investment officer of Yared Investment Research. Mulally is "setting the table beautifully for
an effective rebound, and that's the obvious reason why Kerkorian is determined to
increase his stake in Ford," he adds. Yared believes that by year end 2009 the turnaround
efforts will bear fruit. "The stock could easily double by then," he predicts.

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AT: California

1. California’s economy is screwed anyway – they can’t solve job loss


Mercury News 7-19-2008, “Silicon Valley Unemployment Rate Rises”,
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_9932115

Silicon Valley posted anemic job growth last month, but in a state that economists say is in a "jobs recession," any growth is good.
More than 1.2 million Californians are unemployed, according to figures released Friday by the state Employment Development
Department. California's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.9 percent, up from 6.8 percent in May; the valley's rate
jumped from a seasonally unadjusted 5.6 percent in May to 6.1 percent in June. Seasonal adjustments take account of variations in the
job market during the year, such as the burst in hiring around the holidays. Santa Clara and San Benito counties added 3,000 jobs from
May to June for a total workforce of 923,200. That is half the average job growth the area has seen for the past 18 years, the EDD
reported. Still, it was the valley's 17th consecutive month of job gains. Many of the valley's largest companies have been cutting jobs.
Layoffs combined with construction and financial unemployment boosted the number of people looking for work and unable
to find it. While the national economy is a drag on the valley, the tech-driven region is doing much better than the state, where job
levels have declined for the past two quarters. The state's jobless rate "tells us that the California economy is in a recession," said
Stephen Levy of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.

2. There is no internal link between a “hiccup” in the US economy and the global economy.
Mead is talking about a global economic recession.

3.

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XT: Cali Econ Screwed

The California econ is screwed because of housing


Bloomberg , California's Discount Foreclosure Sales Point to Housing Bottom By Dan Levy and Daniel Taub,
8-31-08
.
California led the U.S. in default notices and bank seizures for the 18th straight month in June and had seven of the 10 metro
areas with the highest foreclosure rates, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., which sells default data. That drove
down prices and led to ``discounted distressed sales,'' with two-thirds of transactions under $500,000, compared with 40 percent a
year earlier, the California Association of Realtors said.
The amount of time it would take to deplete the supply of homes decreased to 7.7 months from 10.2 months a year earlier, and the
median price fell 38 percent to $368,250 last month, according to the Realtors.
``Things are beginning to happen,'' said Karl Case, professor of economics at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts, and
co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. ``We're not going to get reestablished in a stable market unless that
inventory gets cleared out.''

The budget crisis will be solved by borrowing and tradeoffs


Los Angeles Times 7-18-2008, “California budget fix could raise sales taxes”,
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-me-arnold18-2008jul18,0,3467821.story

SACRAMENTO -- Legislative leaders are drafting a complicated scheme to help close the
state's massive deficit by raiding funds voters have set aside for transportation and
local government services, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Thursday, adding that it
probably would force a state sales tax hike. "It is not a good idea," the governor said in an
interview with The Times. But Schwarzenegger, anxious to get a budget passed before the
state experiences a cash crisis, did not rule out signing off on such a plan.

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XT: Econ will fix itself

Increased sales tax will bail out the budget

The Sacramento Bee, 7-20-2008, “Some see taxing more services as way to ease California budget
crunch”, http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1095533.html

Advocates say much of the problem lies with California's huge reliance on personal
income tax. It's notoriously volatile. A huge decline in 2002 led to the budget battle and
recall of Gov. Gray Davis a year later.

This time around, things haven't been as dramatic. Income tax payments have continued to
grow, but at a much slower rate than three years ago, when the real estate and stock
markets generated big windfalls. Revenue hasn't kept pace with spending growth, and legislative
Democrats and Republicans are at an impasse that has left the budget more than two weeks
overdue.

"It's not the first time the state's been in this situation," said Terri Sexton, a California
State University, Sacramento, economist who advises the state on fiscal policy. "I think
everybody agrees about the volatility of our income tax base, and here we are going down this
same path again."

Sexton and some elected officials want California to rely more heavily on sales tax,
which is more dependable. Instead of raising rates, which now top out at 8.75 percent,
some officials are urging the Legislature to start imposing the tax on a broad range of
services that are currently exempt. California taxes fewer services than most other states.

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Alt Energy Unpopular – Generic

Washington’s renewable energy policies are unpopular with Americans – supporting them is a costly
political move

Ray Nothstine, Editor at the Acton Institute, 6-18-2008, “Washington’s Unpopular War on Energy”
http://www.acton.org/commentary/459_washington_unpopular_war_on_energy.php

Most Americans have little faith in the federal government to represent their interests. Who
can blame them, when their fears are constantly affirmed by Washington’s shenanigans?
According to polls, presidential and congressional approval ratings are hovering around an
all time low. Just 17 percent of American voters believe the federal government represents
the will of the people.

That this skepticism is well placed is bad news for citizens who are looking to Washington to
solve the problem of rising fuel and energy prices. It’s even more dire news for Americans
on fixed and limited incomes.

With energy prices already skyrocketing, federal lawmakers wreaked more havoc by trying
to pass heavy-handed regulatory legislation known simply as “cap and trade.” The
legislation would impose stringent emission limits on energy and manufacturing industries.
At the same time, many environmentalists admit that the legislation would have little to no
impact on climate change. However, the bill would greatly increase hidden taxes and costs
on consumers. The poor and middle class would be hardest hit.

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Alternative Energy Popular – Texas

Alternative energy is popular in Texas


AWEA (American Wind Energy Association) 8-18-08

“With its decision to approve new, large investments in transmission lines for renewable energy, Texas is not only
ensuring that consumers will reap the benefits of more wind power, it is also showing the way forward for the nation.

“We need to improve the way the nation plans for transmission lines, both to increase electric system reliability and to tap our
vast wind resource. Texas is pioneering a way to that by establishing “Competitive Renewable Energy Zones” that identify
corridors where transmission can be built and ways in which the lines will be funded.
“The state’s leaders, from Governor Perry, to the legislature, to the Public Utility Commissioners, are to be
commended for taking on a complex issue and crafting an innovative solution. Their
achievement, a culmination of six years of hard work, can serve as a national model for how to cut the Gordian knot of
transmission planning today,” Swisher said.
Legislation has been introduced by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) to create National
Renewable Energy Zones, which would bring vast amounts of low-cost renewable resources to consumers and increase grid
reliability. In addition, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) added a transmission-related energy corridors amendment to a Senate energy
bill last year.
“Investing in new transmission for renewable energy not only increases our electricity supply, it reduces carbon emissions from
power generation and applies downward pressure on electricity costs. Based on a study by the Electric Reliability Council of
Texas, a transmission investm ent of $1 billion per year is expected to lower overall payments by customers to power
generators by more than $3 billion per year – an overall savings of about $2 billion per year. At the national level, benefits
would also far outweigh the costs, making investment in transmission a clear win for our economy, environment, and energy
security,” Swisher added.
“The leadership that Texas has established in wind power is paying economic
dividends in several areas. In addition to meeting its growing electricity demand
with clean power, Texas is building a major new industry and creating thousands
of jobs in wind farm construction and maintenance, manufacturing,
transportation, and services.”

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Alternative Energy Popular – California

Alternative Energy is popular in California


NY Times 2-1-08 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/01/technology/01solar.html?em

While interest in alternative energy is climbing across the United States, solar
power especially is rising in California, the product of billions of dollars in
investment and mountains of enthusiasm.

In recent months, the industry has added several thousand jobs in the production of solar
energy cells and installation of solar panels on roofs. A spate of investment has also aimed
at making solar power more efficient and less costly than natural gas and coal.

Entrepreneurs, academics and policy makers say this era’s solar industry is different from
what was tried in the 1970s, when Jerry Brown, then the governor of California, invited
derision for envisioning a future fueled by alternative energy.

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